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The election might be tomorrow but some of the counts could spill over into the weekend or even next

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  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    Charles said:

    I have just found out that the Labour candidate for the mayor of Tees Valley is actually really fit. Why didn't anyone tell me this before?

    Err… yer wot?
    Jessie Joe Jacobs. She sounds quite impressive in a non-party sense. Lots of ideas; interesting back-story.
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19269310.labours-tees-valley-mayoral-candidate-jessie-joe-jacobs-says-she-born-this/
    Indeed. She is Jessie Joe Jacobs of the Jessie Joe Jacobs party. She released a 5 minute promo video which was one of the worst poilitical films I have ever seen. It included:
    Jessie doing her makeup
    Jessie leaving her house and leaving the front door wide open
    Jessie knocking on doors, not getting answered and walking away again
    Jessie solemnly telling us how she had led local regional and national change
    Jessie telling us that the area had gone to the dogs under the Tories with the opening shot of this hysterical rant a big England flag flying on Eston nab
    Jessie hysterically ranting about how terrible everything is and why its all the evil Tories fault
    All intercut with shots of Jessie doing that godawful Patel smirk whilst standing heorically on headlands or outside the closed steelworks.

    When she gets demolished today, she will move onto her next project. We don't know what it is yet but I can guarantee that she will always have been passionate about it and will use 403 photos of her pulling that same fucking Patel smirk to illustrate the point.

    EDIT - her "IS THIS THE UK'S FIRST FEMALE METRO MAYOR?" newspaper is just as bad. So many shots of JJJJJJJ heroically pulling the same pose in front of everything I wondered if this was the Freemans catalogue and not a crap political leaflet. Who puts "Will I Win?" on their front page FFS.
    If she can get Jet from gladiators to come round and canvass me I could be persuaded. Now she is hot…

    https://twitter.com/JessieJoeJacobs/status/1390042375549030402?s=20
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225
    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Five minutes to go!

    Although election days aren’t the same without an early morning delivery finishing about now.

    Good morning everyone.

    Agree, Mr B2; no organising the first tellers nowadays, either.
    It is bight and sunny here though; reminds me of two beautiful mornings in early May 1997; May 1st and 2nd!
    Ah, memories!
    I have tellers out at my three polling stations and deliverers out delivering. Knocking up from midday.

    EDIT: Us cockroaches don't give up easily!
    Anno Domini has caught up with me!
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,166

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    Jonathan said:

    It’s not that Keir doesn’t have policies.
    It’s not even clear what his philosophy is.

    At present I’d far rather have Keir than the corrupt clown, but if he hasn’t got anything he wants to say then he needs to “get off the pot”.

    Sadiq won’t be getting either of my votes today, either.

    Starmer is working within serious constraints. It may not look it, but arguably he is doing a heroic job. If he moves on policy, someone somewhere shouts betrayal. Anyway more anon after polls close.
    I don’t remember any early policy from Cameron.

    However; I do remember he published a kind of philosophical manifesto in the Times which read well and positioned him as not just another Tory.

    He then followed it up with some PR stunts, which were gauche but succeeded in reinforcing his positioning.

    I know it’s been hard with coronavirus but I would have expected Keir to activate some kind of comms campaign from 1 April.
    Didn't Tebbitt once compare early Cammo to Pol Pot?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    He has no more stuffed us than Boris has become Admiral Thomas Cochrane, it's just all posturing for the press and elections.
    Has anyone considered that Macron and Boris (who text each other regularly, and clearly admire each other on some level) have partly orchestrated the drama?

    Macron gets electoral benefit by standing up to Les Rosbifs over fish. Boris gets fantastic headlines on election day by sending in the navy.

    Nothing happens. Both men stay in office and are fêted as heroes.

    They then chuckle to each other after.
    But everyone texts Boris regularly.... ;)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460
    Betting post - Johnson to still be PM on 1st July 2022:

    This can be backed at 1.4 and it's surely one of the best political bets out there right now. I'm long of it in quite big size at 1.9 from a while back and although I'd usually be looking to take profits I'm actually considering topping up.

    He could have a health event. He could be brought down by sleaze. The polls could turn so dramatically that the Cons dump him. He could just decide he's had enough of this PM lark and jack it in for an easy life and big money.

    But do the above probabilities over a timeframe of only just over a year add up to more than about 20% max?

    No they do not. The odds for this bet should be much shorter.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,095
    Epic final campaign video from Count Binface https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1390007716274393098

    vs godawful video from Jessie Jessie Jessie https://twitter.com/JessieJoeJacobs/status/1386364918144937986
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,984

    Jonathan said:

    It’s not that Keir doesn’t have policies.
    It’s not even clear what his philosophy is.

    At present I’d far rather have Keir than the corrupt clown, but if he hasn’t got anything he wants to say then he needs to “get off the pot”.

    Sadiq won’t be getting either of my votes today, either.

    Starmer is working within serious constraints. It may not look it, but arguably he is doing a heroic job. If he moves on policy, someone somewhere shouts betrayal. Anyway more anon after polls close.
    I don’t remember any early policy from Cameron.

    However; I do remember he published a kind of philosophical manifesto in the Times which read well and positioned him as not just another Tory.

    He then followed it up with some PR stunts, which were gauche but succeeded in reinforcing his positioning.

    I know it’s been hard with coronavirus but I would have expected Keir to activate some kind of comms campaign from 1 April.
    IDStarmer has a philosophical manifesto too - "I am not Jeremy Corbyn".

    What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody moaning Tories...
    It was good enough for BoJo.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818

    Charles said:

    I have just found out that the Labour candidate for the mayor of Tees Valley is actually really fit. Why didn't anyone tell me this before?

    Err… yer wot?
    Jessie Joe Jacobs. She sounds quite impressive in a non-party sense. Lots of ideas; interesting back-story.
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19269310.labours-tees-valley-mayoral-candidate-jessie-joe-jacobs-says-she-born-this/
    Indeed. She is Jessie Joe Jacobs of the Jessie Joe Jacobs party. She released a 5 minute promo video which was one of the worst poilitical films I have ever seen. It included:
    Jessie doing her makeup
    Jessie leaving her house and leaving the front door wide open
    Jessie knocking on doors, not getting answered and walking away again
    Jessie solemnly telling us how she had led local regional and national change
    Jessie telling us that the area had gone to the dogs under the Tories with the opening shot of this hysterical rant a big England flag flying on Eston nab
    Jessie hysterically ranting about how terrible everything is and why its all the evil Tories fault
    All intercut with shots of Jessie doing that godawful Patel smirk whilst standing heorically on headlands or outside the closed steelworks.

    When she gets demolished today, she will move onto her next project. We don't know what it is yet but I can guarantee that she will always have been passionate about it and will use 403 photos of her pulling that same fucking Patel smirk to illustrate the point.

    EDIT - her "IS THIS THE UK'S FIRST FEMALE METRO MAYOR?" newspaper is just as bad. So many shots of JJJJJJJ heroically pulling the same pose in front of everything I wondered if this was the Freemans catalogue and not a crap political leaflet. Who puts "Will I Win?" on their front page FFS.
    On the other hand she is polling 37% against a candidate who on any sane measure* appears to have seriously over delivered.

    Which says that the Labour party has a chance long term provided they can find sane policies that attract people across the whole country.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    So is turnout brisk yet? Here I mean.
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    fitalass said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If Labour do badly tomorrow everyone's going to blame Keir Starmer. But I think they'd probably be doing even worse with anyone else. He's the best choice available at the moment.

    Labour should have done what the Conservatives did back in 2005, taken a chance and elected a fresh new Labour Leader as the Conservatives did when they elected Cameron. Like the Conservatives back then, Labour had the same luxury of time to embed and build up support for a new leader before another GE. But unfortunately, they elected the Conservative equivalent of David Davis instead, and Keir Starmer was already carrying so much baggage due to his high profile role in Corbyn's dysfunctional shadow Cabinet on the issue of Brexit during the chaotic couple of years after Theresa May lost her majority. As it stands now, Labour are probable going to have to have another Leadership election before the next GE. I also fully expect the Conservatives to be on their fouth Leader/PM by the time the next GE is called.

    It's just not going to be a Boris Johnson vs Keir Starmer fight at the next GE, it will come down to which party picks the right leadership successor along with how the public judge the Conservatives guidence of the country through the post pandemic economic recovery and the timing of the contests.

    Who remembers the early days of that 2005 Conservative leadership contest when David Davis was the nailed on favourite to win while Cameron was regarded as an also ran among far bigger political beasts? The culmination of that Leadership contest whereby the various candidates had to address Conference with a speech should have become a template for future leadership contests in political parties, yet it didn't and the Labour party are still no where near regaining power eleven years after they lost the 2010 GE because they keep making the same mistake of choosing a Labour leader that will appeal to the membership rather than one that will appeal to the voters outside the Labour party and who are vital to them getting elected. That is why the public turned off during the last three Labour leadership contests, they were not invited to the debate so were not interested in the outcome. But that Conservative leadership contest in 2005 did the opposite, it got the public interested, and then the Conservative party ditched the favourite and went for the candidate the public showed some interest in, the rest is history.
    Two problems with your thesis. Starmer polls or at least polled well. Labour is in a very, very different position to the Conservatives in 2005. Cameron would not have been elected if, say, John Redwood or Norman Tebbitt had been leader for 5 years.

    The time for a detailed discussion about all this starts at 10pm. But for now, good luck to all those standing.
    Since 1979 apart from John Smith, how many decent Labour leaders have there been? My answer would be zero, Blair being discounted because of IRAQ... and the millions of deaths that have happened as a result.
    Tory doesn’t like Labour leaders shock.
    No... its a serious question.. none of them apart from Smith would you think was a leader of standing that you could envisage as PM.. and I am voting Ĺib Dem today.
    Smith, Blair, Brown, Milliband and certainly Starmer could be PM. Corbyn, whilst unlikely IMO as PM, got 40% of the vote in 2017 which is more than most and deserves respect.

    Milliband much like Hague became leader too young, but like Hague has since developed gravitas.

    There is not much difference in quality with Tory leaders in the past 20 years.

    I am not talking about Tory leaders some have been truly awful. Labours problem is that they haven't had anybody voters could visualise as PM material. The Tories have had duffers but Labour has been even worse with its leaders.... Quad erat demonstrandum.
    For most of the last decade nobody but Boris could visualise Boris as PM, but PM he is.
    But who in Labour has that level of burning ambition? OK, SKS could sit in a Shadow Cabinet waiting his turn, as he turned a blind eye to the antisemitism erupting all around. But who is there that wants to forge a new coalition with voters to win a majority - and take the ferocious flak from his own side in doing so? Who has the rhino hide shown by Boris?
    You don’t get the Born to Rule arrogance on the Labour benches. Ultimately that’s a good thing.
    If you want people who've entered politics but have as little expectation of ruling as possible and thus no born to rule arrogance, you should vote LD or Green.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s not that Keir doesn’t have policies.
    It’s not even clear what his philosophy is.

    At present I’d far rather have Keir than the corrupt clown, but if he hasn’t got anything he wants to say then he needs to “get off the pot”.

    Sadiq won’t be getting either of my votes today, either.

    Starmer is working within serious constraints. It may not look it, but arguably he is doing a heroic job. If he moves on policy, someone somewhere shouts betrayal. Anyway more anon after polls close.
    We saw that on here the other day. At some point the party needs to move on from fighting over the comb.
    I am not certain it can be done this time. The world is very different to when Kinnock last fought that battle. If Kinnock had had social media to contend with, it might have turned out differently.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Aren’t these things more likely than not?
    Yes if the polls are right.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818

    I think turnout will be poor.

    I just drove straight back home from nursery drop-off totally forgetting about the fact it's polling day today, I normally go at 8am, and there are no signs anywhere.

    I will have to go later today now.

    My wife had forgotten - it was only because I visited this site and suggested to my daughter that she could vote on the way to school that she discovered today was the day.

    Not that our votes will make any difference - Ben Houchen will be mayor and Labour will win the Durham PCC.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    Epic final campaign video from Count Binface https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1390007716274393098

    vs godawful video from Jessie Jessie Jessie https://twitter.com/JessieJoeJacobs/status/1386364918144937986

    Yes, classic “the only reason you aren’t as rich as you think you should be is because of those people over there”. The message can be adjusted for whatever your own political preference. The people can be Jews/immigrants/ tories delete as required.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Garlic and Gitane offer Trumpian levels of protection.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    He has no more stuffed us than Boris has become Admiral Thomas Cochrane, it's just all posturing for the press and elections.
    Has anyone considered that Macron and Boris (who text each other regularly, and clearly admire each other on some level) have partly orchestrated the drama?

    Macron gets electoral benefit by standing up to Les Rosbifs over fish. Boris gets fantastic headlines on election day by sending in the navy.

    Nothing happens. Both men stay in office and are fêted as heroes.

    They then chuckle to each other after.
    But everyone texts Boris regularly.... ;)
    Wow. You didn't use the phrase, The Clown.

    You know, THE CLOWN? That funny way you refer to him, like, eighteen times a day, every day? "The Clown is doing it because the Clown is so incompetent he has to clown about doing clownish things to ensure no-one realises that at heart he's just A CLOWN.." or something.

    You must be ill.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 618
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Have Labour ever forced out a leader? Closest they came was a VoNC in Corbyn which was ignored.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475

    Charles said:

    I have just found out that the Labour candidate for the mayor of Tees Valley is actually really fit. Why didn't anyone tell me this before?

    Err… yer wot?
    Jessie Joe Jacobs. She sounds quite impressive in a non-party sense. Lots of ideas; interesting back-story.
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19269310.labours-tees-valley-mayoral-candidate-jessie-joe-jacobs-says-she-born-this/
    Indeed. She is Jessie Joe Jacobs of the Jessie Joe Jacobs party. She released a 5 minute promo video which was one of the worst poilitical films I have ever seen. It included:
    Jessie doing her makeup
    Jessie leaving her house and leaving the front door wide open
    Jessie knocking on doors, not getting answered and walking away again
    Jessie solemnly telling us how she had led local regional and national change
    Jessie telling us that the area had gone to the dogs under the Tories with the opening shot of this hysterical rant a big England flag flying on Eston nab
    Jessie hysterically ranting about how terrible everything is and why its all the evil Tories fault
    All intercut with shots of Jessie doing that godawful Patel smirk whilst standing heorically on headlands or outside the closed steelworks.

    When she gets demolished today, she will move onto her next project. We don't know what it is yet but I can guarantee that she will always have been passionate about it and will use 403 photos of her pulling that same fucking Patel smirk to illustrate the point.

    EDIT - her "IS THIS THE UK'S FIRST FEMALE METRO MAYOR?" newspaper is just as bad. So many shots of JJJJJJJ heroically pulling the same pose in front of everything I wondered if this was the Freemans catalogue and not a crap political leaflet. Who puts "Will I Win?" on their front page FFS.
    Did you see her stunt at the old blast furnace with a Jet from Gladiators.

    It was cringeworthy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Epic final campaign video from Count Binface https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1390007716274393098

    vs godawful video from Jessie Jessie Jessie https://twitter.com/JessieJoeJacobs/status/1386364918144937986

    Awesome. I'm a sucker for a musical campaign video - I still remember the 2015 Green Party musical PPB, with stand ins for Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage singing about how they all agree and are the same (bit harsh on Farage).
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,828
    edited May 6

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    A successful military victory against mainland Europe, would of course confirm Johnson as Churchillian. Indeed he would surpass Churchill, we could from hereon refer to Churchill as Johnsonian.

    Scramble the Navy!
    Nelson, Churchill, Steve Baker, Johnson. These names will be remembered for a thousand years.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,858
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    So, I've checked the Twitter bio and read the wiki page on Accelerationism, but I'm still none the wiser. What do Labour Accelerationists want, the acceleration of Labour to the singularity at which it collapses under it's own internal tensions?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Polling day update: Eating my breakfast was 'brisk'. Drinking coffee is 'steady'.

    Peston frantically tweets: I'm hearing rumours of brisk turnout in sandy areas, but we can't be sure who it benefits yet. More at 11
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,166
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Garlic and Gitane offer Trumpian levels of protection.
    Figures from 2 days ago show that there are currently 28950 people in hospital in France with Covid, in the UK the figure was 1300 for that day. France has maintained a figure of 25,000+ in Hospital for 4 months. This is so much higher than the UK. There are so many stories of Hospitals being overwhelmed in France. yet despite this they officially have 40% less excess deaths than the UK.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,858
    AlistairM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Have Labour ever forced out a leader? Closest they came was a VoNC in Corbyn which was ignored.
    The process to depose a Labour leader generally requires a VoNC delivered via a General Election.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    AlistairM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Have Labour ever forced out a leader? Closest they came was a VoNC in Corbyn which was ignored.
    I think all those losses are baked in - but it may be a good idea, just to show that the left of the party is irrelevant at the moment.

    But equally the story appears to be about an MP canvassing round Westminster in a week where Parliament is closed.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Those are things I don't know the answers to. Maybe the UK kept expanding its testing capacity beyond the point were there were big gains to be had. Maybe the French approach to hospitalisation was different so that their survival rate was better. At some point in the next few years, it would be good to find that sort of thing out.

    But the starting point has to be realistic. And that is that, compared to the sort of well-run countries we should be comparing ourselves to, there are more dead British people than other countries managed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Those are things I don't know the answers to. Maybe the UK kept expanding its testing capacity beyond the point were there were big gains to be had. Maybe the French approach to hospitalisation was different so that their survival rate was better. At some point in the next few years, it would be good to find that sort of thing out.

    But the starting point has to be realistic. And that is that, compared to the sort of well-run countries we should be comparing ourselves to, there are more dead British people than other countries managed.
    In 2 months the difference will be marginal across the big European nations, excepting Germany. There will still be lessons to learn from each other, but not many bragging rights on this continent.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    eek said:

    AlistairM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Have Labour ever forced out a leader? Closest they came was a VoNC in Corbyn which was ignored.
    I think all those losses are baked in - but it may be a good idea, just to show that the left of the party is irrelevant at the moment.

    But equally the story appears to be about an MP canvassing round Westminster in a week where Parliament is closed.
    Although I'd quite enjoy a Labour leadership contest - betting opportunities and popcorn eating excuse - I think I'm hoping that there isn't one given the small risk of another frothing loon like Corbyn winning (or even the same frothing loon).

    I'd guess about 33% chance of a challenge. (What do others think?)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Those are things I don't know the answers to. Maybe the UK kept expanding its testing capacity beyond the point were there were big gains to be had. Maybe the French approach to hospitalisation was different so that their survival rate was better. At some point in the next few years, it would be good to find that sort of thing out.

    But the starting point has to be realistic. And that is that, compared to the sort of well-run countries we should be comparing ourselves to, there are more dead British people than other countries managed.
    It's not something really simple is? We count everyone who died where there has been a positive Covid test in the past 28 days as 'Covid-related'.
    I'm sure we don't include those who died as a result of a road accident, for example, or demonstrable other causes, don't count, but if we do, our figures might be inflated.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 15,214
    A vote of no confidence in Starmer for losing a by-election. Jezza lost a by-election, why didn't he resign?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    Selebian said:

    AlistairM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Have Labour ever forced out a leader? Closest they came was a VoNC in Corbyn which was ignored.
    The process to depose a Labour leader generally requires a VoNC delivered via a General Election.
    What's the point? Who do they think would do a better job against Johnson and his connect with Middle England?
  • MangoMango Posts: 959

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    A successful military victory against mainland Europe, would of course confirm Johnson as Churchillian. Indeed he would surpass Churchill, we could from hereon refer to Churchill as Johnsonian.

    Scramble the Navy!
    Both ships?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Absolutely pathetic whatabouterism.

    People die from disease, it happens. It isn't the government's job or responsibility to abolish death in society. The NHS didn't collapse. So there's no excuse for more draconian restrictions.

    In case you've missed it too, this virus targets the obese elderly spreading in high population density dwelling especially. Unlike Denmark etc the UK has a high population density with lots of obese elderly people.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    Deaths within 28 days of a covid diagnosis isn't accurate either. Many could have died from other reasons not necessarily covid.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    AlistairM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Have Labour ever forced out a leader? Closest they came was a VoNC in Corbyn which was ignored.
    I think all those losses are baked in - but it may be a good idea, just to show that the left of the party is irrelevant at the moment.

    But equally the story appears to be about an MP canvassing round Westminster in a week where Parliament is closed.
    Although I'd quite enjoy a Labour leadership contest - betting opportunities and popcorn eating excuse - I think I'm hoping that there isn't one given the small risk of another frothing loon like Corbyn winning (or even the same frothing loon).

    I'd guess about 33% chance of a challenge. (What do others think?)
    Sadly the idiots haven't been removed from the party yet - so that 33% chance sounds about right.

    Worse were it to happen the party would have no chance of recovery as more seats would be lose.

    However you can see the issue - the Tory party policies over the past year have made Corbyn's manifesto look right wing.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 15,214
    For me personally, the time for Starmer to resign will be if this time next year Labour is still behind in the polls.

    He'll have had two years to "bed in" and should have announced some policies, seen the public reaction, had a better SC in place and Labour should then have a pretty good handle on whether Starmer has a chance.

    Before then is entirely premature and pointless, who would replace him and how/why would they do a better job? Until somebody can answer that question, he is the best Labour has right now.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    Mango said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    A successful military victory against mainland Europe, would of course confirm Johnson as Churchillian. Indeed he would surpass Churchill, we could from hereon refer to Churchill as Johnsonian.

    Scramble the Navy!
    Both ships?
    Well the big one is heading towards Japan - so the French had enough sense to wait until we couldn't send both ships..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    It's almost as if deaths are related to obesity rates in the two countries. Go figure, that a virus that kills the obese much more than the slim, has killed more in the more obese nation despite the more slim nation having many more cases.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Those are things I don't know the answers to. Maybe the UK kept expanding its testing capacity beyond the point were there were big gains to be had. Maybe the French approach to hospitalisation was different so that their survival rate was better. At some point in the next few years, it would be good to find that sort of thing out.

    But the starting point has to be realistic. And that is that, compared to the sort of well-run countries we should be comparing ourselves to, there are more dead British people than other countries managed.
    In 2 months the difference will be marginal across the big European nations, excepting Germany. There will still be lessons to learn from each other, but not many bragging rights on this continent.
    That was my initial thought, but looking at the graphs, I'm not so sure. Yes, there are more Covid deaths to come, but the graphs for most of Western Europe have gone pretty much back to baseline; the Covid deaths and the lives saved by washing hands, staying indoors and thanking baked potato are cancelling out.

    And frankly, if Denmark and South Korea have managed the epidemic with negative excess deaths, they get to brag.

    Anyway- I must go and entertain a child while their school is closed. There must be a better way of sourcing polling stations than closing schools.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,382

    Charles said:

    I’m prepared for the Labour catastrophe today. Starmer though should not be resigning, primarily because that will give the left a foothold again and they’ll do even worse.

    The priority for him now must be reshuffling the Shadow Cabinet and developing some big, bold, simple ideas.

    You make it sound so easy…
    I wonder if he has thought about a cones hotline ?
    For someone who has for the last thirty years travelled the length of England and Wales for work, and suffered the inconvenience of miles of contraflow with no work going on. Starmer's (he does remind me somewhat of 1992 election winner John Major) much pilloried cones hotline, way back in the 1990s wasn't as daft as it sounded.
    Great , SKS should make it policy.

    The upside is that despite being as grey as Major, when he's gone well probably find out his daily life was drugs and S&M with Little Mix. Really he should declare it now, it would at least give him a chance with the electorate
    So who is his Edwina?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,447

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Absolutely pathetic whatabouterism.

    People die from disease, it happens. It isn't the government's job or responsibility to abolish death in society. The NHS didn't collapse. So there's no excuse for more draconian restrictions.

    In case you've missed it too, this virus targets the obese elderly spreading in high population density dwelling especially. Unlike Denmark etc the UK has a high population density with lots of obese elderly people.
    I would vote for anyone* who promised to abolish death.

    Obviously not if Boris promised it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,629

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Garlic and Gitane offer Trumpian levels of protection.
    Figures from 2 days ago show that there are currently 28950 people in hospital in France with Covid, in the UK the figure was 1300 for that day. France has maintained a figure of 25,000+ in Hospital for 4 months. This is so much higher than the UK. There are so many stories of Hospitals being overwhelmed in France. yet despite this they officially have 40% less excess deaths than the UK.
    "Officially"
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    They can f right off.
    I thought Tribune was sort of Kinnockite soft left?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460

    For me personally, the time for Starmer to resign will be if this time next year Labour is still behind in the polls.

    He'll have had two years to "bed in" and should have announced some policies, seen the public reaction, had a better SC in place and Labour should then have a pretty good handle on whether Starmer has a chance.

    Before then is entirely premature and pointless, who would replace him and how/why would they do a better job? Until somebody can answer that question, he is the best Labour has right now.

    Yep, my take too. It might be that he was a mistake and needs replacing before the GE but the time for making that call - if it's necessary - will be this time next year.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I’m prepared for the Labour catastrophe today. Starmer though should not be resigning, primarily because that will give the left a foothold again and they’ll do even worse.

    The priority for him now must be reshuffling the Shadow Cabinet and developing some big, bold, simple ideas.

    You make it sound so easy…
    I wonder if he has thought about a cones hotline ?
    For someone who has for the last thirty years travelled the length of England and Wales for work, and suffered the inconvenience of miles of contraflow with no work going on. Starmer's (he does remind me somewhat of 1992 election winner John Major) much pilloried cones hotline, way back in the 1990s wasn't as daft as it sounded.
    Basically it was “let us know if you see miles of road coned off with no one doing any work”. Quite practical I would have thought.
    But I felt very satisfied ranting down the Motorola car phone (didn't need to be hands-free in those days either) at some minion bean counter. Excellent job creation too, I would have thought. OK so Starmer's cones hotline wasn't a success.

    P.S. After Johnson, I'd have Major back in a heartbeat.
    I hear Dido’s looking for a job
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,492

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    It's almost as if deaths are related to obesity rates in the two countries. Go figure, that a virus that kills the obese much more than the slim, has killed more in the more obese nation despite the more slim nation having many more cases.
    Yes, this is my theory. Belgians, Czechs and Hungarians are, as I recall, also pretty lardy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I’m prepared for the Labour catastrophe today. Starmer though should not be resigning, primarily because that will give the left a foothold again and they’ll do even worse.

    The priority for him now must be reshuffling the Shadow Cabinet and developing some big, bold, simple ideas.

    You make it sound so easy…
    I wonder if he has thought about a cones hotline ?
    For someone who has for the last thirty years travelled the length of England and Wales for work, and suffered the inconvenience of miles of contraflow with no work going on. Starmer's (he does remind me somewhat of 1992 election winner John Major) much pilloried cones hotline, way back in the 1990s wasn't as daft as it sounded.
    Basically it was “let us know if you see miles of road coned off with no one doing any work”. Quite practical I would have thought.
    But I felt very satisfied ranting down the Motorola car phone (didn't need to be hands-free in those days either) at some minion bean counter. Excellent job creation too, I would have thought. OK so Starmer's cones hotline wasn't a success.

    P.S. After Johnson, I'd have Major back in a heartbeat.
    I hear Dido’s looking for a job
    To run the cones hotline, or to replace Johnson. Which did you have in mind?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460
    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    AlistairM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Have Labour ever forced out a leader? Closest they came was a VoNC in Corbyn which was ignored.
    I think all those losses are baked in - but it may be a good idea, just to show that the left of the party is irrelevant at the moment.

    But equally the story appears to be about an MP canvassing round Westminster in a week where Parliament is closed.
    Although I'd quite enjoy a Labour leadership contest - betting opportunities and popcorn eating excuse - I think I'm hoping that there isn't one given the small risk of another frothing loon like Corbyn winning (or even the same frothing loon).

    I'd guess about 33% chance of a challenge. (What do others think?)
    Less than 10% this year. Higher next year if the polls still look bleak.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    He has no more stuffed us than Boris has become Admiral Thomas Cochrane, it's just all posturing for the press and elections.
    Has anyone considered that Macron and Boris (who text each other regularly, and clearly admire each other on some level) have partly orchestrated the drama?

    Macron gets electoral benefit by standing up to Les Rosbifs over fish. Boris gets fantastic headlines on election day by sending in the navy.

    Nothing happens. Both men stay in office and are fêted as heroes.

    They then chuckle to each other after.
    Or it’s just bolshy French farmers doing what they always do and blocking stuff?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,095

    A vote of no confidence in Starmer for losing a by-election. Jezza lost a by-election, why didn't he resign?

    Because Starmer will have lost a by-election and both the West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoralties. the Jeremy (peace be upon him) lost a by-election and both the West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoralties.

    Completely different you see.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,095
    philiph said:

    Charles said:

    I’m prepared for the Labour catastrophe today. Starmer though should not be resigning, primarily because that will give the left a foothold again and they’ll do even worse.

    The priority for him now must be reshuffling the Shadow Cabinet and developing some big, bold, simple ideas.

    You make it sound so easy…
    I wonder if he has thought about a cones hotline ?
    For someone who has for the last thirty years travelled the length of England and Wales for work, and suffered the inconvenience of miles of contraflow with no work going on. Starmer's (he does remind me somewhat of 1992 election winner John Major) much pilloried cones hotline, way back in the 1990s wasn't as daft as it sounded.
    Great , SKS should make it policy.

    The upside is that despite being as grey as Major, when he's gone well probably find out his daily life was drugs and S&M with Little Mix. Really he should declare it now, it would at least give him a chance with the electorate
    So who is his Edwina?
    Jessie Joe Jacobs.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Relative obesity? Ethic mix?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,008
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Five minutes to go!

    Although election days aren’t the same without an early morning delivery finishing about now.

    Good morning everyone.

    Agree, Mr B2; no organising the first tellers nowadays, either.
    It is bight and sunny here though; reminds me of two beautiful mornings in early May 1997; May 1st and 2nd!
    Ah, memories!
    I have tellers out at my three polling stations and deliverers out delivering. Knocking up from midday.

    EDIT: Us cockroaches don't give up easily!
    You should be out there leading from the front! Not sitting indoors with a cup of tea browsing PB
    :) I'm running the Committee room and directing the troops (while browsing PB now and then). Waiting for the first telling returns

    I've just back from nearest polling station. Returning Officer says turnout is much greater than he expected. 20 people queuing to vote at 7am.

    I don't know if that is good news for us or not. Depends whether they are voting for us I suppose. I'll soon have an indication as I enter the data. I won't be telling!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Fascinating and clever calculator by the FT showing the effect of different levels of support for Salmond's Alba and how it varies across Scottish regions.

    Google the title of the article to get access:
    "Interactive calculator: Will Alba help or hinder pro-independence parties in Scotland?"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,460

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    He has no more stuffed us than Boris has become Admiral Thomas Cochrane, it's just all posturing for the press and elections.
    Has anyone considered that Macron and Boris (who text each other regularly, and clearly admire each other on some level) have partly orchestrated the drama?

    Macron gets electoral benefit by standing up to Les Rosbifs over fish. Boris gets fantastic headlines on election day by sending in the navy.

    Nothing happens. Both men stay in office and are fêted as heroes.

    They then chuckle to each other after.
    But everyone texts Boris regularly.... ;)
    Wow. You didn't use the phrase, The Clown.

    You know, THE CLOWN? That funny way you refer to him, like, eighteen times a day, every day? "The Clown is doing it because the Clown is so incompetent he has to clown about doing clownish things to ensure no-one realises that at heart he's just A CLOWN.." or something.

    You must be ill.
    It's a useful antidote to all those who talk about him as if he's a close mate of theirs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,308
    Maybe we should talk about Starmer when today's results are known but to be honest I do not see any point in replacing him

    He comes across as a bland metropolitan lawyer who is pleasant enough, but does not really convince politically

    Yesterday, while Boris was happily waving to everyone from his bike ride with Andy Street and sending the navy to Jersey, Starmer was with Tracy Brabin at a food bank putting token items into a carrier bag. Visiting a food bank simply does not cut through to most voters

    To be honest I do not think Starmer is the problem, it is more that Boris and the conservatives have moved onto labour's territory and in a similar way to the SNP, are steady eclipsing Labour as a relevant political party

    I really do not know how Labour counter this, but I do not see removing Starmer as being a positive thing to do
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,869
    Good election morning all. I'm crowdsourcing my method for ballot-spoiling in the London Mayoralty election - any contributions?

    Alternatively, there is an outside (but non-zero) chance I can be persuaded to voted Lib Dem, if anyone cares enough to take a whack at that...
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,042
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Relative obesity? Ethic mix?
    Lying?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Epic final campaign video from Count Binface https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1390007716274393098

    vs godawful video from Jessie Jessie Jessie https://twitter.com/JessieJoeJacobs/status/1386364918144937986

    Yes, classic “the only reason you aren’t as rich as you think you should be is because of those people over there”. The message can be adjusted for whatever your own political preference. The people can be Jews/immigrants/ tories delete as required.
    I thought “I wanna run this city / I wanna make the streets less shitty” was pretty compelling
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,554

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Those are things I don't know the answers to. Maybe the UK kept expanding its testing capacity beyond the point were there were big gains to be had. Maybe the French approach to hospitalisation was different so that their survival rate was better. At some point in the next few years, it would be good to find that sort of thing out.

    But the starting point has to be realistic. And that is that, compared to the sort of well-run countries we should be comparing ourselves to, there are more dead British people than other countries managed.
    Seems pretty much on the money. I think the answers to why are complex, and some are down to decisions taken (in very challenging times) and some are down to pre-existing factors. Foxy's anecdote that the young people in ICU were very obese (BMI of 40+) provides a clue. The lack of expansion capacity in the NHS which led to the care home disasters ("must empty the hospitals to make space, have you seen Italy?") Potentially the high BAME populations in poor and crowded housing. We clearly messed up in allowing holidays last summer.
    Some things were just bad luck too - Heathrow/London is a global hub in the way that say Berlin isn't. The Kent variant arose at a bad time, as the approach of tiers was working for the original strain to a large extent.
    If we had been sure that the vaccines would arrive in late November 2020, and would be so effective, it would have made sense to go zero-covid, or at least as low as possible. But we couldn't be sure, and there was always a possibility that we would have to learn to live with it as best we could.
    I don't think our governments have covered themselves in glory. They have been mightily tested to be sure. But I think it is wrong to try to cast blame on a party political basis. Much better to look at what really happened and why, and try to change the future.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    Endillion said:

    Good election morning all. I'm crowdsourcing my method for ballot-spoiling in the London Mayoralty election - any contributions?

    Alternatively, there is an outside (but non-zero) chance I can be persuaded to voted Lib Dem, if anyone cares enough to take a whack at that...

    I spoiled my ballot papers by writing 'pineapple does not belong on pizza.'

    I do regret that now, I want to vote for the Tories considering Boris Johnson is about to take us to war with France.

    The PB betting community would like you to give your first vote to Count Binface though.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,382

    philiph said:

    Charles said:

    I’m prepared for the Labour catastrophe today. Starmer though should not be resigning, primarily because that will give the left a foothold again and they’ll do even worse.

    The priority for him now must be reshuffling the Shadow Cabinet and developing some big, bold, simple ideas.

    You make it sound so easy…
    I wonder if he has thought about a cones hotline ?
    For someone who has for the last thirty years travelled the length of England and Wales for work, and suffered the inconvenience of miles of contraflow with no work going on. Starmer's (he does remind me somewhat of 1992 election winner John Major) much pilloried cones hotline, way back in the 1990s wasn't as daft as it sounded.
    Great , SKS should make it policy.

    The upside is that despite being as grey as Major, when he's gone well probably find out his daily life was drugs and S&M with Little Mix. Really he should declare it now, it would at least give him a chance with the electorate
    So who is his Edwina?
    Jessie Joe Jacobs.
    When you are known as Jessie, and you spell Joe in the male format there is there a possibility for confusion and misinterpretation of your sex and sexuality from the devious and malign (like me)?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,811

    Maybe we should talk about Starmer when today's results are known but to be honest I do not see any point in replacing him

    He comes across as a bland metropolitan lawyer who is pleasant enough, but does not really convince politically

    Yesterday, while Boris was happily waving to everyone from his bike ride with Andy Street and sending the navy to Jersey, Starmer was with Tracy Brabin at a food bank putting token items into a carrier bag. Visiting a food bank simply does not cut through to most voters

    To be honest I do not think Starmer is the problem, it is more that Boris and the conservatives have moved onto labour's territory and in a similar way to the SNP, are steady eclipsing Labour as a relevant political party

    I really do not know how Labour counter this, but I do not see removing Starmer as being a positive thing to do

    Boris is a rock star.

    Starmer is the rock stars accountant.

    We kind of expect our rock stars to be badly behaved.

    Not saying it's right, but it's how it is.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Garlic and Gitane offer Trumpian levels of protection.
    Figures from 2 days ago show that there are currently 28950 people in hospital in France with Covid, in the UK the figure was 1300 for that day. France has maintained a figure of 25,000+ in Hospital for 4 months. This is so much higher than the UK. There are so many stories of Hospitals being overwhelmed in France. yet despite this they officially have 40% less excess deaths than the UK.
    People in the banlieues count for 3/5?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733

    A vote of no confidence in Starmer for losing a by-election. Jezza lost a by-election, why didn't he resign?

    Because Starmer will have lost a by-election and both the West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoralties. the Jeremy (peace be upon him) lost a by-election and both the West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoralties.

    Completely different you see.
    I understand.

    As it was Jeremy, we should read the loss of two mayoralties and a by election as a series of moral victories. In the same way that despite his overwhelming moral victory in 2019 he was cast assunder. We can expect some pretty impressive moral victories under RLB and Burgon too then, when Starmer is punished for today's bloodbath. BJO and the Jezziah will be along later to explain.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    I have just found out that the Labour candidate for the mayor of Tees Valley is actually really fit. Why didn't anyone tell me this before?

    Err… yer wot?
    Jessie Joe Jacobs. She sounds quite impressive in a non-party sense. Lots of ideas; interesting back-story.
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19269310.labours-tees-valley-mayoral-candidate-jessie-joe-jacobs-says-she-born-this/
    Indeed. She is Jessie Joe Jacobs of the Jessie Joe Jacobs party. She released a 5 minute promo video which was one of the worst poilitical films I have ever seen. It included:
    Jessie doing her makeup
    Jessie leaving her house and leaving the front door wide open
    Jessie knocking on doors, not getting answered and walking away again
    Jessie solemnly telling us how she had led local regional and national change
    Jessie telling us that the area had gone to the dogs under the Tories with the opening shot of this hysterical rant a big England flag flying on Eston nab
    Jessie hysterically ranting about how terrible everything is and why its all the evil Tories fault
    All intercut with shots of Jessie doing that godawful Patel smirk whilst standing heorically on headlands or outside the closed steelworks.

    When she gets demolished today, she will move onto her next project. We don't know what it is yet but I can guarantee that she will always have been passionate about it and will use 403 photos of her pulling that same fucking Patel smirk to illustrate the point.

    EDIT - her "IS THIS THE UK'S FIRST FEMALE METRO MAYOR?" newspaper is just as bad. So many shots of JJJJJJJ heroically pulling the same pose in front of everything I wondered if this was the Freemans catalogue and not a crap political leaflet. Who puts "Will I Win?" on their front page FFS.
    On the other hand she is polling 37% against a candidate who on any sane measure* appears to have seriously over delivered.

    Which says that the Labour party has a chance long term provided they can find sane policies that attract people across the whole country.

    Some people could never vote Tory. It was a strong labour area. I suspect she is at, or near, the f,or for labour in that area currently.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    eek said:

    Mango said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    A successful military victory against mainland Europe, would of course confirm Johnson as Churchillian. Indeed he would surpass Churchill, we could from hereon refer to Churchill as Johnsonian.

    Scramble the Navy!
    Both ships?
    Well the big one is heading towards Japan - so the French had enough sense to wait until we couldn't send both ships..
    Has it gone yet, or is it still on exercises off the top of Scotland?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475

    For me personally, the time for Starmer to resign will be if this time next year Labour is still behind in the polls.

    He'll have had two years to "bed in" and should have announced some policies, seen the public reaction, had a better SC in place and Labour should then have a pretty good handle on whether Starmer has a chance.

    Before then is entirely premature and pointless, who would replace him and how/why would they do a better job? Until somebody can answer that question, he is the best Labour has right now.

    I was thinking Nandy partly because she’s northern, partly because she’s a woman and partly because she’s an effective communicator,. Usually.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's all kicking off.....





    I saw HMS Severn go past my window yesterday morning. How is it going to switch the lights back on?
    Jersey's backup power supply will switch the lights back on...

    I really don't understand French Govt Ministers' utter dedication to being posturing twats.

    Anyhoo the Minister for Silly Talks seems to have backed down from making like Vladimir Putin wrt Georgia.
    Plays well in “Le Daily Mail?”
    Nah this is win win territory

    Struggling french president turns Monsieur macho and stuffs it to les rosbifs in run up to election
    Tub thumping PM socks it to the frogs on election day

    Both sides want to play
    How exactly did Macron "stuff" us? A threat to cut off the power not acted upon, a flotilla of trawlers that turns tail after making some sort of a gesture. A really crap EU deal that doesn't seem to suit us or the French. Surely he has just demonstrated his own ineffectiveness.
    He has no more stuffed us than Boris has become Admiral Thomas Cochrane, it's just all posturing for the press and elections.
    Has anyone considered that Macron and Boris (who text each other regularly, and clearly admire each other on some level) have partly orchestrated the drama?

    Macron gets electoral benefit by standing up to Les Rosbifs over fish. Boris gets fantastic headlines on election day by sending in the navy.

    Nothing happens. Both men stay in office and are fêted as heroes.

    They then chuckle to each other after.
    But everyone texts Boris regularly.... ;)
    Wow. You didn't use the phrase, The Clown.

    You know, THE CLOWN? That funny way you refer to him, like, eighteen times a day, every day? "The Clown is doing it because the Clown is so incompetent he has to clown about doing clownish things to ensure no-one realises that at heart he's just A CLOWN.." or something.

    You must be ill.
    It's a useful antidote to all those who talk about him as if he's a close mate of theirs.
    I don't think anyone here does that for either Boris or Keir.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927
    edited May 6

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    I’m prepared for the Labour catastrophe today. Starmer though should not be resigning, primarily because that will give the left a foothold again and they’ll do even worse.

    The priority for him now must be reshuffling the Shadow Cabinet and developing some big, bold, simple ideas.

    You make it sound so easy…
    I wonder if he has thought about a cones hotline ?
    For someone who has for the last thirty years travelled the length of England and Wales for work, and suffered the inconvenience of miles of contraflow with no work going on. Starmer's (he does remind me somewhat of 1992 election winner John Major) much pilloried cones hotline, way back in the 1990s wasn't as daft as it sounded.
    Basically it was “let us know if you see miles of road coned off with no one doing any work”. Quite practical I would have thought.
    But I felt very satisfied ranting down the Motorola car phone (didn't need to be hands-free in those days either) at some minion bean counter. Excellent job creation too, I would have thought. OK so Starmer's cones hotline wasn't a success.

    P.S. After Johnson, I'd have Major back in a heartbeat.
    I hear Dido’s looking for a job
    To run the cones hotline, or to replace Johnson. Which did you have in mind?
    Definitely the former . It doesn’t really matter if she screws it up
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    edited May 6
    geoffw said:

    Fascinating and clever calculator by the FT showing the effect of different levels of support for Salmond's Alba and how it varies across Scottish regions.

    Google the title of the article to get access:
    "Interactive calculator: Will Alba help or hinder pro-independence parties in Scotland?"

    If Alba exceeds 5% it unequivocally helps the pro independence parties as a group.

    edit: at less than 5% it has no effect.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,041

    Leon said:

    THIS IS IT LADS

    WE'RE GOING IN

    Said Boris to his latest lover....
    The War of Leon's Buttplug ?
  • FossFoss Posts: 437
    Endillion said:

    Good election morning all. I'm crowdsourcing my method for ballot-spoiling in the London Mayoralty election - any contributions?

    Alternatively, there is an outside (but non-zero) chance I can be persuaded to voted Lib Dem, if anyone cares enough to take a whack at that...

    This might be useful.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,869

    Endillion said:

    Good election morning all. I'm crowdsourcing my method for ballot-spoiling in the London Mayoralty election - any contributions?

    Alternatively, there is an outside (but non-zero) chance I can be persuaded to voted Lib Dem, if anyone cares enough to take a whack at that...

    I spoiled my ballot papers by writing 'pineapple does not belong on pizza.'

    I do regret that now, I want to vote for the Tories considering Boris Johnson is about to take us to war with France.

    The PB betting community would like you to give your first vote to Count Binface though.

    I was leaning Binface, but he wants to take London into the EU. On reflection, might be worth it even if he did.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    I have just found out that the Labour candidate for the mayor of Tees Valley is actually really fit. Why didn't anyone tell me this before?

    Err… yer wot?
    Jessie Joe Jacobs. She sounds quite impressive in a non-party sense. Lots of ideas; interesting back-story.
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19269310.labours-tees-valley-mayoral-candidate-jessie-joe-jacobs-says-she-born-this/
    Indeed. She is Jessie Joe Jacobs of the Jessie Joe Jacobs party. She released a 5 minute promo video which was one of the worst poilitical films I have ever seen. It included:
    Jessie doing her makeup
    Jessie leaving her house and leaving the front door wide open
    Jessie knocking on doors, not getting answered and walking away again
    Jessie solemnly telling us how she had led local regional and national change
    Jessie telling us that the area had gone to the dogs under the Tories with the opening shot of this hysterical rant a big England flag flying on Eston nab
    Jessie hysterically ranting about how terrible everything is and why its all the evil Tories fault
    All intercut with shots of Jessie doing that godawful Patel smirk whilst standing heorically on headlands or outside the closed steelworks.

    When she gets demolished today, she will move onto her next project. We don't know what it is yet but I can guarantee that she will always have been passionate about it and will use 403 photos of her pulling that same fucking Patel smirk to illustrate the point.

    EDIT - her "IS THIS THE UK'S FIRST FEMALE METRO MAYOR?" newspaper is just as bad. So many shots of JJJJJJJ heroically pulling the same pose in front of everything I wondered if this was the Freemans catalogue and not a crap political leaflet. Who puts "Will I Win?" on their front page FFS.
    On the other hand she is polling 37% against a candidate who on any sane measure* appears to have seriously over delivered.

    Which says that the Labour party has a chance long term provided they can find sane policies that attract people across the whole country.

    Some people could never vote Tory. It was a strong labour area. I suspect she is at, or near, the f,or for labour in that area currently.
    And there is no third candidate. It's a straight pro tory vs anti tory or pro labour vs anti labour depending how you look at it.

    This should worry Labour more, that even without a third party syphoning the left's vote they are still in for a drubbing in an area that delivered the architects of New Labour.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,858

    Selebian said:

    AlistairM said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour Accelerationists
    @LabourAccel

    I'm hearing rumours now that if Labour lose the Hartlepool by-election and the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoral elections the Tribune Group of MPs are ready to call for a vote of no confidence in Keir Starmer"

    https://twitter.com/LabourAccel/status/1390206010959216641

    Have Labour ever forced out a leader? Closest they came was a VoNC in Corbyn which was ignored.
    The process to depose a Labour leader generally requires a VoNC delivered via a General Election.
    What's the point? Who do they think would do a better job against Johnson and his connect with Middle England?
    I agree. In the present situation, the only thing to really do is wait for the government to become unpopular (and try and help that to happen). There will be some difficult decisions ahead, Starmer should be kept in place for the next couple of years at least, I'd have thought. If there's no progress by then I'd be happy to see a replacement, if a convincing one emerges (it may not, that being the problem). But I expect Starmer to fight the next election.

    (All said as someone who would probably vote Labour in a GE held tomorrow*, but not with great enthusiasm.)

    *Well, actually, given I'm in a safe Tory seat I might vote for one of the small parties as it wouldn't matter anyway. But in a seat where it would make a difference I'd likely vote Labour.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,166
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    Relative obesity? Ethic mix?
    Possibly, but I just keep looking at their hospitalisation figures, they are and have been so much higher than the UK. There are numerous stories of hospitals being overwhelmed, yet deaths are so much lower. As this is a disease with no official treatment its hard to understand how this could happen.

    Just imagine if the situation was reversed and the UK currently had 20 times as many people in hospital with Covid than France and had maintained that level for weeks, a far higher positivity rate, yet our offical excess deaths figure was 40% lower. The Government would be constantly accused of fiddling the death figures.

    Yet people are prepared to accept the French excess death figure as gospel.
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 130
    Just voted. Fairly quiet.

    No-one was telling here in St Albans.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,041

    This is just the latest in a line of French nonsense...remember the stopping the lorry drivers back in France (not backed by any science), vaccines, etc.

    It's not exactly that - remember French fishermen have considerable form in blockading their own ports.
    The suggestion by a French minister of possibility disrupting electricity supplies is of quite another order.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Taz said:

    For me personally, the time for Starmer to resign will be if this time next year Labour is still behind in the polls.

    He'll have had two years to "bed in" and should have announced some policies, seen the public reaction, had a better SC in place and Labour should then have a pretty good handle on whether Starmer has a chance.

    Before then is entirely premature and pointless, who would replace him and how/why would they do a better job? Until somebody can answer that question, he is the best Labour has right now.

    I was thinking Nandy partly because she’s northern, partly because she’s a woman and partly because she’s an effective communicator,. Usually.
    She might have time to grow. But do you think she has that level of potential. Whenever i see her interviewed she just looks like someone has threatened to take away her ice cream cone.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,536
    Taz said:

    For me personally, the time for Starmer to resign will be if this time next year Labour is still behind in the polls.

    He'll have had two years to "bed in" and should have announced some policies, seen the public reaction, had a better SC in place and Labour should then have a pretty good handle on whether Starmer has a chance.

    Before then is entirely premature and pointless, who would replace him and how/why would they do a better job? Until somebody can answer that question, he is the best Labour has right now.

    I was thinking Nandy partly because she’s northern, partly because she’s a woman and partly because she’s an effective communicator,. Usually.
    Labour doesnt do woman leaders
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,869

    A vote of no confidence in Starmer for losing a by-election. Jezza lost a by-election, why didn't he resign?

    Because Starmer will have lost a by-election and both the West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoralties. the Jeremy (peace be upon him) lost a by-election and both the West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoralties.

    Completely different you see.
    I understand.

    As it was Jeremy, we should read the loss of two mayoralties and a by election as a series of moral victories. In the same way that despite his overwhelming moral victory in 2019 he was cast assunder. We can expect some pretty impressive moral victories under RLB and Burgon too then, when Starmer is punished for today's bloodbath. BJO and the Jezziah will be along later to explain.
    The mayoralties were open when Corbyn lost them, and in areas Labour would have been expected to win. This time around they're trying to defeat popular incumbents. It is completely different.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I have a strong suspicion that Boris is about to be "lucky" again. No doubt those who insist on calling him Bozo or the clown will have their excuses ready once more.

    I don't think it is down to luck. Johnson is a natural campaigner, and because of his complete lack of moral compass is a shameless liar, willing to promise whatever voters want. Aided by an opposition split into multiple parties, with no real alternative vision or inspiring leaders he is nailed on to win.

    He is still an appalling PM. Campaigning skill and governing well seem to have zero correlation.
    Hence why you were convinced that you were going to run out of PPE early last year and ... didn't?

    Or hence why we got the vaccine rollout before any other major nation in the world?

    If this is governing badly, I'm curious what governing well looks like?
    Well, 70 508 excess deaths is clearly better than 117 049 excess deaths, if the countries are basically the same size. That's France vs. UK.
    38 606 excess deaths in a larger country (Germany) is clearly better still.
    Denmark is currently on negative excess deaths.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

    To be fair, there are a bunch of countries that have done worse than the UK.

    Going by the percentages, there are places like Bulgaria, Colombia, Russia. If your argument is that Johnson's Britain is great because it's done better than that, you're welcome. Italy and the US are slightly worse than the UK (but there's not much in it)- that seems to be what happens when you have leading politicians who are TV personalities with dodgy attitudes to women and foreigners.

    Great vaccine rollout, yes. Thank goodness, because the UK botched everything else.
    Its sweet that Countries death figures are still believed
    Excess deaths is a statistic not as easily manipulated as others.
    France has had a higher positivity rate than the UK, many more in hosiptal with Covid, yet 40% less excess deaths. Go figure.
    It's almost as if deaths are related to obesity rates in the two countries. Go figure, that a virus that kills the obese much more than the slim, has killed more in the more obese nation despite the more slim nation having many more cases.
    I would guess also because they had a much stricter lockdown than us last year and we were kicked in the balls by th B117 variant before they were.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    I'm always boring and cast my vote with an X. Just curious if anyone ever tries to be funny or similar with their vote, in a way that doesn't spoil it?

    I was wondering for instance if you were to eg draw a smiley face in one candidates box, and a sad face in all other candidates, then would that be a spoilt ballot or a 'clear preference'?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654

    Taz said:

    For me personally, the time for Starmer to resign will be if this time next year Labour is still behind in the polls.

    He'll have had two years to "bed in" and should have announced some policies, seen the public reaction, had a better SC in place and Labour should then have a pretty good handle on whether Starmer has a chance.

    Before then is entirely premature and pointless, who would replace him and how/why would they do a better job? Until somebody can answer that question, he is the best Labour has right now.

    I was thinking Nandy partly because she’s northern, partly because she’s a woman and partly because she’s an effective communicator,. Usually.
    Labour doesnt do woman leaders
    There hasn't been one who could cut it. The closest they have been was Harriet Harperson who would have been an unmitigated disaster imho.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,963
    Endillion said:

    Good election morning all. I'm crowdsourcing my method for ballot-spoiling in the London Mayoralty election - any contributions?

    Alternatively, there is an outside (but non-zero) chance I can be persuaded to voted Lib Dem, if anyone cares enough to take a whack at that...

    Vote Binface, let’s see if Londoners can get him his £10k deposit returned.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,095
    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Charles said:

    I’m prepared for the Labour catastrophe today. Starmer though should not be resigning, primarily because that will give the left a foothold again and they’ll do even worse.

    The priority for him now must be reshuffling the Shadow Cabinet and developing some big, bold, simple ideas.

    You make it sound so easy…
    I wonder if he has thought about a cones hotline ?
    For someone who has for the last thirty years travelled the length of England and Wales for work, and suffered the inconvenience of miles of contraflow with no work going on. Starmer's (he does remind me somewhat of 1992 election winner John Major) much pilloried cones hotline, way back in the 1990s wasn't as daft as it sounded.
    Great , SKS should make it policy.

    The upside is that despite being as grey as Major, when he's gone well probably find out his daily life was drugs and S&M with Little Mix. Really he should declare it now, it would at least give him a chance with the electorate
    So who is his Edwina?
    Jessie Joe Jacobs.
    When you are known as Jessie, and you spell Joe in the male format there is there a possibility for confusion and misinterpretation of your sex and sexuality from the devious and malign (like me)?
    There is more than a passing resemblance between JJJ and the stripper in Dude, Where's My Car? https://youtu.be/pXvuACu5234?t=59
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260

    Maybe we should talk about Starmer when today's results are known but to be honest I do not see any point in replacing him

    He comes across as a bland metropolitan lawyer who is pleasant enough, but does not really convince politically

    Yesterday, while Boris was happily waving to everyone from his bike ride with Andy Street and sending the navy to Jersey, Starmer was with Tracy Brabin at a food bank putting token items into a carrier bag. Visiting a food bank simply does not cut through to most voters

    To be honest I do not think Starmer is the problem, it is more that Boris and the conservatives have moved onto labour's territory and in a similar way to the SNP, are steady eclipsing Labour as a relevant political party

    I really do not know how Labour counter this, but I do not see removing Starmer as being a positive thing to do

    Boris is a rock star.

    Starmer is the rock stars accountant.

    We kind of expect our rock stars to be badly behaved.

    Not saying it's right, but it's how it is.
    True, and that's what make Johnson a formidable opponent.
    On the other hand, who would you rather have running your affairs? A rock star or their accountant?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,435
    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Five minutes to go!

    Although election days aren’t the same without an early morning delivery finishing about now.

    Good morning everyone.

    Agree, Mr B2; no organising the first tellers nowadays, either.
    It is bight and sunny here though; reminds me of two beautiful mornings in early May 1997; May 1st and 2nd!
    Ah, memories!
    I have tellers out at my three polling stations and deliverers out delivering. Knocking up from midday.

    EDIT: Us cockroaches don't give up easily!
    You should be out there leading from the front! Not sitting indoors with a cup of tea browsing PB
    :) I'm running the Committee room and directing the troops (while browsing PB now and then). Waiting for the first telling returns

    I've just back from nearest polling station. Returning Officer says turnout is much greater than he expected. 20 people queuing to vote at 7am.

    I don't know if that is good news for us or not. Depends whether they are voting for us I suppose. I'll soon have an indication as I enter the data. I won't be telling!
    As I've said a few times, I'm puzzled by the active interest that most voters who I talk to are showing. Maybe it's because they've not been able to vote for two years!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Maybe we should talk about Starmer when today's results are known but to be honest I do not see any point in replacing him

    He comes across as a bland metropolitan lawyer who is pleasant enough, but does not really convince politically

    Yesterday, while Boris was happily waving to everyone from his bike ride with Andy Street and sending the navy to Jersey, Starmer was with Tracy Brabin at a food bank putting token items into a carrier bag. Visiting a food bank simply does not cut through to most voters

    To be honest I do not think Starmer is the problem, it is more that Boris and the conservatives have moved onto labour's territory and in a similar way to the SNP, are steady eclipsing Labour as a relevant political party

    I really do not know how Labour counter this, but I do not see removing Starmer as being a positive thing to do

    Boris is a rock star.

    Starmer is the rock stars accountant.

    We kind of expect our rock stars to be badly behaved.

    Not saying it's right, but it's how it is.
    True, and that's what make Johnson a formidable opponent.
    On the other hand, who would you rather have running your affairs? A rock star or their accountant?
    Boris would probably take your affairs for his own
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,435

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Five minutes to go!

    Although election days aren’t the same without an early morning delivery finishing about now.

    Good morning everyone.

    Agree, Mr B2; no organising the first tellers nowadays, either.
    It is bight and sunny here though; reminds me of two beautiful mornings in early May 1997; May 1st and 2nd!
    Ah, memories!
    I have tellers out at my three polling stations and deliverers out delivering. Knocking up from midday.

    EDIT: Us cockroaches don't give up easily!
    You should be out there leading from the front! Not sitting indoors with a cup of tea browsing PB
    :) I'm running the Committee room and directing the troops (while browsing PB now and then). Waiting for the first telling returns

    I've just back from nearest polling station. Returning Officer says turnout is much greater than he expected. 20 people queuing to vote at 7am.

    I don't know if that is good news for us or not. Depends whether they are voting for us I suppose. I'll soon have an indication as I enter the data. I won't be telling!
    As I've said a few times, I'm puzzled by the active interest that most voters who I talk to are showing. Maybe it's because they've not been able to vote for two years!
    We have a curious prisoners' dilemma locally. The Returning Officer has strongly urged all parties to have tellers only at the rear exit to polling stations, to avoid queues catching Covid from tellers interacting all day. However, the LDs have asked "What if one party breaks the rule to have someone in front to influence tactical voters? We're not sure we can restrain our troops." The RO says, "We cannot legally prevent it, but we urge you not to do it."

    We think the risk is tiny but not zero. So all parties have tellers at the rear entrances, nervously peering round to see if someone is breaking the rules so they can join in.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,095
    I know that I universally mean towards Jessie Joe Jacobs. But she truly is awful. She stands for herself and herself alone, and is happy to take support from both Progress and then Momentum if that meant promoting her interests.

    When you point out to people the duplicity and endless narcissistic self-promotion her supporters object and point out that she's a woman actually and you're being sexist not appreciating how hard it is for a woman to advance (yes, they were serious).

    Last time I interacted with her was a campaign team meeting straight out of a CLP exec meeting. We started off talking about how we defend Paul Williams against the Tories, she objected to the fact that we weren't talking about her own campaign to be Tees Valley Mayor (she wasn't the candidate at that point) and started her own separate meeting in a different part of the bar.

    I am no fan of the simpering simpleton Ben "I bought an airport me!" Houchen. But when he demolishes her today it won't be by a big enough margin.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,828
    edited May 6
    On another anecdotal account from my relative, Boris's heroic crusade against the French doesn't seem to be doing much for turnout in the Southwest either.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    I can confirm that where I am (silly police elections only) turnout was officially “sluggish”.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    Well I just voted north of the wall (in Newcastle).

    Lib Dems for the council and Independent for PCC.

    Boring AF
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Maybe we should talk about Starmer when today's results are known but to be honest I do not see any point in replacing him

    He comes across as a bland metropolitan lawyer who is pleasant enough, but does not really convince politically

    Yesterday, while Boris was happily waving to everyone from his bike ride with Andy Street and sending the navy to Jersey, Starmer was with Tracy Brabin at a food bank putting token items into a carrier bag. Visiting a food bank simply does not cut through to most voters

    To be honest I do not think Starmer is the problem, it is more that Boris and the conservatives have moved onto labour's territory and in a similar way to the SNP, are steady eclipsing Labour as a relevant political party

    I really do not know how Labour counter this, but I do not see removing Starmer as being a positive thing to do

    Boris is a rock star.

    Starmer is the rock stars accountant.

    We kind of expect our rock stars to be badly behaved.

    Not saying it's right, but it's how it is.
    True, and that's what make Johnson a formidable opponent.
    On the other hand, who would you rather have running your affairs? A rock star or their accountant?
    Depends if we’re having a party or a wake...
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    Maybe we should talk about Starmer when today's results are known but to be honest I do not see any point in replacing him

    He comes across as a bland metropolitan lawyer who is pleasant enough, but does not really convince politically

    Yesterday, while Boris was happily waving to everyone from his bike ride with Andy Street and sending the navy to Jersey, Starmer was with Tracy Brabin at a food bank putting token items into a carrier bag. Visiting a food bank simply does not cut through to most voters

    To be honest I do not think Starmer is the problem, it is more that Boris and the conservatives have moved onto labour's territory and in a similar way to the SNP, are steady eclipsing Labour as a relevant political party

    I really do not know how Labour counter this, but I do not see removing Starmer as being a positive thing to do

    Foodbankism is a problem for Labour, and they dont realise it. It's become a middle class obsession for wealthy retired people who dye their hair purple. While i'm sure they do good and its a numbers game for every five dozen chancers they'll be someone has got themselves into a pickle and has ended up with not enough food to get to the end of the week, but those who live around people who regularly use them will tell you about them getting taxis to the foodbanks, about them spending their benefits on gadgets etc.

    Labour had successfully (by their reckoning) weaponised food banks, just like they did with universal credit and bedroom tax. But theres a lot of lower paid people who dont use them and never would who are alienated by it.

    I sense that while food bank worship and poverty [email protected] plays well to Labour's membership base (the working assumption has to be that a Tory Government is evil and starving poor people), it puts off wider support.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,828
    edited May 6

    Maybe we should talk about Starmer when today's results are known but to be honest I do not see any point in replacing him

    He comes across as a bland metropolitan lawyer who is pleasant enough, but does not really convince politically

    Yesterday, while Boris was happily waving to everyone from his bike ride with Andy Street and sending the navy to Jersey, Starmer was with Tracy Brabin at a food bank putting token items into a carrier bag. Visiting a food bank simply does not cut through to most voters

    To be honest I do not think Starmer is the problem, it is more that Boris and the conservatives have moved onto labour's territory and in a similar way to the SNP, are steady eclipsing Labour as a relevant political party

    I really do not know how Labour counter this, but I do not see removing Starmer as being a positive thing to do

    Foodbankism is a problem for Labour, and they dont realise it. It's become a middle class obsession for wealthy retired people who dye their hair purple. While i'm sure they do good and its a numbers game for every five dozen chancers they'll be someone has got themselves into a pickle and has ended up with not enough food to get to the end of the week, but those who live around people who regularly use them will tell you about them getting taxis to the foodbanks, about them spending their benefits on gadgets etc.

    Labour had successfully (by their reckoning) weaponised food banks, just like they did with universal credit and bedroom tax. But theres a lot of lower paid people who dont use them and never would who are alienated by it.

    I sense that while food bank worship and poverty [email protected] plays well to Labour's membership base (the working assumption has to be that a Tory Government is evil and starving poor people), it puts off wider support.
    This is possibly your most ignorant post, from a range at other times better.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475

    Taz said:

    For me personally, the time for Starmer to resign will be if this time next year Labour is still behind in the polls.

    He'll have had two years to "bed in" and should have announced some policies, seen the public reaction, had a better SC in place and Labour should then have a pretty good handle on whether Starmer has a chance.

    Before then is entirely premature and pointless, who would replace him and how/why would they do a better job? Until somebody can answer that question, he is the best Labour has right now.

    I was thinking Nandy partly because she’s northern, partly because she’s a woman and partly because she’s an effective communicator,. Usually.
    She might have time to grow. But do you think she has that level of potential. Whenever i see her interviewed she just looks like someone has threatened to take away her ice cream cone.
    I do, but possibly because she outperformed in the leadership election.
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