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The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    edited May 2021
    kjh said:

    No.
    In that case too bad about your fingers. Wear gloves.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
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  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012

    Corbyns toxic legacy is the dire quality of Labour MPs in parly.

    SKS needs one election to bring in a quality cohort. Only then can he make a push for govt.

    He's a decade away from power.

    Corbyns toxic legacy is the dire quality of Labour MPs in parly.

    SKS needs one election to bring in a quality cohort. Only then can he make a push for govt.

    He's a decade away from power.
    Where is the quality cohort?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    And, in a way, that's the key thing that some commentators have forgotten here this morning.

    If today's poll is even half-right, Hartlepool is a goner. Well, duh. Without Tice's intervention, it would have fallen easily in December 2019.

    But if yesterday's polls are right, the national picture is that the government, despite all its triumphs, is barely ahead of this terrible Labour party led by terrible old Starmer.

    Both things can be true at once.
    Are Labour terrible? Not really - dull with no message (same for SKS) but they are not disastrous nor have they swung into looney tunes territory.

    The big structural threat is that it is quite easy to see Labour's voters easily absorbed by other parties - the WWC going to the Tories, the urban professional classes going to the Greens with the ethnic vote (which is increasingly focused on Bangladeshi / Caribbean / Pakistani communities) going to a Respect-style outfit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    IanB2 said:

    The farmers who used to plaster rural areas with big Tory posters seem strangely less keen this time around. Has anything happened recently?
    I saw several labour posters in fields in 2019, I almost crashed my car in surprise.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Farage not kicking up a fuss about the exit deal was genuinely shocking.
    Not to me, he could see the writing on the wall. For him, his time in politics is over. He could either go down swinging as the DUP style rejectionist who opposed everything and people moved on without him - or he could be a man who goes down in history as the consumate outsider who got what he wanted delivered from challenging outside of Parliament.

    People give Farage far more credit than he deserves, he always preyed on pre-existing splits especially in the Tory Party. Once that split was healed, he had no future. Better for his legacy to finally claim victory than to continue kicking up a fuss. He can retire gracefully now, cashing in on his legacy in the USA etc now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    These comments are interesting

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1389497195322388480?s=19
    Thanks but wouldn't open for me. Quick precis?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    Pulpstar said:

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    If you want evidence that a fool and their money is easily parted - I think you've found the perfect example.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    A perfect example. Can you show me where in the Mayor's remit he has had anything to do with GE coming to Teesside? Its got literally fuck all to do with him and the same would have been true if (shudder) Jessie Joe Jacobs becomes mayor. She also claims all kinds of crap that are absolutely miles outside the remit of this non-job.
    That’s changing the question. You said that the Freeport would do nothing for residents. GE is opening a factory there because it. That will do something for residents.

    I don’t care whether it was the mayor, the monkey or a giraffe from London Zoo that achieved it. But from what he has said - and he may be lying of course - the major has been advocating strongly for the Freeport so he had a role and deserves a share of the credit
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    You're propounding here an extremely rosy account of the entire Brexit process as from-the-ground-up, organic democracy, as Spiked et al also tend to do.

    The only reason Cameron agreed to a referendum in the very first place was solely two forms of party-political calculation. Firstly, that the right of his party was beginning to pose a threat to his position internally, but more importantly, because UKIP was beginning to threaten him at local and european elections, and before most voters even much cared about the european topic at all, according to all the surveys of the time.
    You're completely trying to rewrite history.

    The reason Cameron agreed to the referendum in the first place was because over 100 MPs of his own Party rebelled against the whip to demand one. He had no alternative, he couldn't cover up the cracks in his party anymore. This predated the subsequent rise of UKIP.

    Voters did care about the European topic and more importantly they cared about topics related to Europe, it was a myth by Remainers that the voters didn't care.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    kinabalu said:

    Thanks but wouldn't open for me. Quick precis?
    How can Labour be 2% behind nationally but 17% behind in Hartlepool? Either one poll is wrong, the other poll is wrong, or the Tories are losing ground much quicker in other areas than people realise.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2021

    And, in a way, that's the key thing that some commentators have forgotten here this morning.

    If today's poll is even half-right, Hartlepool is a goner. Well, duh. Without Tice's intervention, it would have fallen easily in December 2019.

    But if yesterday's polls are right, the national picture is that the government, despite all its triumphs, is barely ahead of this terrible Labour party led by terrible old Starmer.

    Both things can be true at once.
    And the more interesting other side of the polling is that if Con are -3 since 2019, Lab +6, but in the Mids and North the Conservatives are flat or slightly up, and London is essentially maxed out, where are those gains? It's not in Wales, or really in Scotland.

    If the answer is the one that jumps out, then the Tory heartlands are under threat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,089
    Chameleon said:

    And the more interesting other side of the polling is that if Con are -3 since 2019, Lab +6, but in the Mids and North the Conservatives are flat or slightly up, and London is essentially maxed out, where are those gains? It's not in Wales, or really in Scotland.
    The South, though some of those gains have gone to the LDs rather than Labour
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    DavidL said:

    James Bond did that decades ago.
    Cmd Bond RNVR, if you don’t mind.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    'It's housing, stupid.'

    It's not a problem that the rest of the country can afford their own homes, it's a problem that Londoners can't.

    A problem Saddiq has done the square root of zero to fix, which is why he is going to be handsomely rewarded by the electorate.

    Housing is not only a London issue and housing is not the only issue - which is why Labour also does well in other big English cities, securing the votes of people on average and below average wages.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    Pulpstar said:

    You were spot on, just as with Florida.
    Well you're a bit of a punter, aren't you, so that means a lot that you've noticed my "form". :smile:
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited May 2021

    And, in a way, that's the key thing that some commentators have forgotten here this morning.

    If today's poll is even half-right, Hartlepool is a goner. Well, duh. Without Tice's intervention, it would have fallen easily in December 2019.

    But if yesterday's polls are right, the national picture is that the government, despite all its triumphs, is barely ahead of this terrible Labour party led by terrible old Starmer.

    Both things can be true at once.
    Yeah but 11 years into government and they're ahead in every poll - comfortably ahead in most. Has this ever happened before? In 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992 the opposition lead the majority of polls in each of those years, and again in 2008 and 2009.

    We are in unchartered territory. Labour being closer in the polls is a crumb of comfort but equally Sunak is waiting in the wings for when the appeal of Boris starts to wear off. Sunak will lose ground in the red wall but you'd think he's got more than enough about him to hold off Labour in the home counties.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    edited May 2021
    Quincel said:

    How can Labour be 2% behind nationally but 17% behind in Hartlepool? Either one poll is wrong, the other poll is wrong, or the Tories are losing ground much quicker in other areas than people realise.
    Because the Tories would have been 20% up in the 2019 election if Farage hadn't stood and cost the Tories 15 or so seats that went to Labour due to the Brexit vote being split between Farage and Boris.

    If Farage had completely stood down 80% of the Brexit Party votes would have gone to the Tory party.

    The only thing this byelection is actually doing is showing the scale of the problem Labour needs to fix. Their core working class Northern seats have finally been lost after 70 years of being taken for granted.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012

    As a fellow Surrey resident what I would say is...'it's surrey', I'll probably be voting Lib dem, but only out of a general 'lets not keep the tories too safe and keep them on their toes' way.
    Ditto esp in Horsham where the Tories have had it all their own way for far too long
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    Inner city working class people are the wrong kind of working class.
    Very droll. Still doesn't sort out Labour's (and the left's) main issue. Most people view the party as irrelevant and the only people who vote for Labour are (1) smug urban professionals who think everyone is on Twitter or watching GoT when actually they are in front of the TV watching Corrie and (2) most (but not all) of the ethnic minority vote who will be off if Galloway, or a similar figure, gets their act together
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    Quincel said:

    How can Labour be 2% behind nationally but 17% behind in Hartlepool? Either one poll is wrong, the other poll is wrong, or the Tories are losing ground much quicker in other areas than people realise.
    Or, the Tories aren’t losing ground when it comes to actual elections

    Polls are an expression of theoretical interest. A Tinder swipe. Elections, by contrast, are actual sex
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    5 top priorities = 5 yr plan = Edstone
    Ending culture wars is not in the gift of politicians, and most of the people whose votes he needs take no interest in university social science department and metro rubbish anyway.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    5 top priorities = 5 yr plan = Edstone
    Let's focus on what the Tories "levelling up plan" actually means. Apparently nearly 18 months after the GE the Tories have finally got round to appointing someone to work out what it might mean - Neil O'Brien. See here - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/levelling-up-chief-neil-obrien-touted-as-proof-of-commitment-to-red-wall-psw605rfg.

    What does it mean. According to this article it means "Insiders suggested that levelling up could include four aspects — a regional economic policy; spreading opportunity across the country; improving the outputs and outcomes from public services; and non-economic outcomes of improving “quality of life” and “pride in place”."

    Sounds like empty vacuous slogans to me. In Copeland, one issue that lots of the locals mention is the state of the roads. They are awful. As for public services, the local councils are appalling at emptying their recycling centres. One centre - located next to a children's play area and SSI on the beach - is so bad that rubbish is blown about all over the place. The local waste authority is responsible for a statutory nuisance and this in an area dependant on tourism for its living.

    I have raised this with the local council, the Tory Mayor and the local Tory councillor. Neither of the latter two even bothered to reply.

    "Quality of life" and "pride in place" my arse!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,089
    edited May 2021
    algarkirk said:

    Labour need to be threatening (not necessarily winning) JRM's seat to win an OM, but of course need to do much less to deny the Tories an OM. A Labour OM is, unless a Blair shaped Black Swan arrives, completely impossible - and the current odds are ludicrous (7/2).

    Among their target seats in terms of crude numbers (swing required) are completely different backgrounds, in particular compare 'marginal' seats where the Labour tide is going out (the old red wall etc) and the ones where the Labour tide is coming in (urban, BAME and posh/educated/Toynbee territory), I think there are fewer of the latter than the former mostly because they already hold that ground and because there aren't so many to start with.

    Think squirrels. If you want an exciting and exotic one, search for a red one. They exist in enclaves in different parts and are wonderful. But if you want to win a squirrel election look for the greys. They are boring and everywhere. Tories hold almost all the boring seats - the ones the chattering classes visit every 20 years to write about, like The Economist mentioned mine recently (BTW we still have red squirrels).

    One thing Biden was good at when he won in 2020 was forgetting San Francisco and LA and New York where Hillary spent so much time fundraising in 2016 and where he knew he would win by miles anyway and focusing on the most boring bits of America in rustbelt Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which are full of white bluecollar voters much like those Labour need to win back now and campaigning on an economic inequality message without being socialist and not being too woke. Indeed despite the fact he won the EC Biden actually won California by less than Hillary did and New York by the same margin as Hillary did, he won where it mattered.

    Starmer should have been taking notes
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MrEd said:

    Are Labour terrible? Not really - dull with no message (same for SKS) but they are not disastrous nor have they swung into looney tunes territory.

    The big structural threat is that it is quite easy to see Labour's voters easily absorbed by other parties - the WWC going to the Tories, the urban professional classes going to the Greens with the ethnic vote (which is increasingly focused on Bangladeshi / Caribbean / Pakistani communities) going to a Respect-style outfit.
    Looks like Tice's Reform are having a shocker judging by the polls,. but he said something interesting yesterday.

    The better labour do in London and the cities, the worse they do elsewhere. Whatever the reality, Khan's opponents have done a great job selling London as a identity politics hellhole where focus groups pontificate on pronouns whilst young men slaughter each other with knives in the streets.

    Labour should get rid of Khan if they want to do well elsewhere and run an Andy Burnham style uniter instead. Khan is killing their brand in middle England, and not because of race, but because of politics.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839
    Dura_Ace said:

    Can you stop linking to far right nonsense.
    Tanya Gold has Labour sympathies if anything. She doesn't even interview the Tory candidate. She is a brilliant writer though - her restaurant reviews in the Spectator are hilarious.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,127
    edited May 2021
    Quincel said:

    In fairness, the comments in that tweet aren't really partisan. He's just pointing out that the local polls are completely at odds with the recent national polls and this needs explaining. And he's right.
    The most obvious explanation is that the clown’s dissing John Lewis, and by extension positioning himself as upper class sneering at the values of the wider middle class, has upset the Waitrose demographic rather more than the solid folk of Hartlepool.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    No no no, the loss of the red wall predates Corbyn so it isn't his fault. The dam has been eroded over time, with no maintenance done by an arrogant local Labour hierarchy who think they are born to rule because its all the Tories fault.

    Labour's problem is that the dam burst thanks to Brexit. What you propose is that Labour go back to the failed Corbyn experiment, have a slate of wazzocks like Sam Tarry, Zarah Sultana and Laura Pillock as MPs and double down on policy so that Labour only talk to the bottom 5% and blame everything on the top 1% and say fuck all to everyone else.

    Labour's solution is not Starmer. Labour's solution is not Corbyn. It is not either / or you tosspot. As I tweeted earlier this morning the left and right in Labour fight like ferrets in a sack and neither side understand why you're in the sack in the first place.
    One could see that Labour was potentially in trouble in a number of Red Wall constituencies after 2001. Even where majorities remained large in percentage terms, turnout had fallen away very sharply. After 2005, sizeable votes were going to UKIP, BNP, various independents and local parties.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    MrEd said:

    Very droll. Still doesn't sort out Labour's (and the left's) main issue. Most people view the party as irrelevant and the only people who vote for Labour are (1) smug urban professionals who think everyone is on Twitter or watching GoT when actually they are in front of the TV watching Corrie and (2) most (but not all) of the ethnic minority vote who will be off if Galloway, or a similar figure, gets their act together

    Hmmm - just a touch of projection there, I suspect! Essentially, it seems, people you do not like vote Labour. Fancy hating 10 million people so much!

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Quincel said:

    How can Labour be 2% behind nationally but 17% behind in Hartlepool? Either one poll is wrong, the other poll is wrong, or the Tories are losing ground much quicker in other areas than people realise.
    Mid-term polls aren't much use.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited May 2021

    You're completely trying to rewrite history.

    The reason Cameron agreed to the referendum in the first place was because over 100 MPs of his own Party rebelled against the whip to demand one. He had no alternative, he couldn't cover up the cracks in his party anymore. This predated the subsequent rise of UKIP.

    Voters did care about the European topic and more importantly they cared about topics related to Europe, it was a myth by Remainers that the voters didn't care.
    I'm afraid Europe, as has been covered ad infinitum here, was near the bottom of voters' concerns until the 2015 refugee crisis, which postdated the referendum decision. UKIP, though, was building a populist brand also based on anti-immigration rhetoric, and not solely confined to Europe. Cameron thought he could shore up his position internally and neutralise the UKIP brand, but simultaneously avoid alienating metropolitan voters with immigration and law'n'order rhetoric, with a European referendum. The rest is unfortunate history, as they say.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Chameleon said:

    And the more interesting other side of the polling is that if Con are -3 since 2019, Lab +6, but in the Mids and North the Conservatives are flat or slightly up, and London is essentially maxed out, where are those gains? It's not in Wales, or really in Scotland.

    If the answer is the one that jumps out, then the Tory heartlands are under threat.
    Problem is like the red wall it might take a few elections to really hit home. They could lose a lot of support in the south without losing all that many seats.

    You're completely trying to rewrite history.

    The reason Cameron agreed to the referendum in the first place was because over 100 MPs of his own Party rebelled against the whip to demand one. He had no alternative, he couldn't cover up the cracks in his party anymore. This predated the subsequent rise of UKIP.

    Voters did care about the European topic and more importantly they cared about topics related to Europe, it was a myth by Remainers that the voters didn't care.
    Surveys that it was not something people brought up dont change that people did care, as they proved when they were asked.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Housing is not only a London issue and housing is not the only issue - which is why Labour also does well in other big English cities, securing the votes of people on average and below average wages.

    Housing is a primary issue and house prices are a major consideration in the other cities too, as opposed to across the Red Wall were Barratt Homes-style new builds have been getting built and bought all over the North outside of the cities.
    https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/04/03/the-truth-behind-the-tories-northern-strongholds

    The Red Wall has the lowest house price to earnings ratio in the entire country.
    image
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    Anas doesn't seem to be cutting through despite his personal rating

    https://twitter.com/markmcgeoghegan/status/1389525963667562496?s=20
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Pulpstar said:

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    CCC - CoinMarketCap. Currency in USD
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    Warning. Talking about cryptocurrency puts you in the realms of conspiracy theorist on here. Even if you urge people to invest small amounts and use this market as a hedge and a hedge only.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    IanB2 said:

    The farmers who used to plaster rural areas with big Tory posters seem strangely less keen this time around. Has anything happened recently?
    Tories have got used to just shutting up and quietly getting on with voting. Ask any Tory teacher, academic or NHS worker.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,127

    The Tories gave Hard Brexit, with as few qualifications as possible, to the BXP. Likewise, Labour need to give PR to the Lib Dems and Greens, if they want to get anywhere in the future.
    An argument that will be helped when it dawns on Labour that they need PR themselves, to get anywhere in future.

    Which taking a longer term view may be an upside of a Tory win in the by-election.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    SELF SELECTING VOODOO POLL ALERT

    Snipped from the National a few minutes ago:





  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2021

    I'm afraid Europe, as has been covered ad infinitum here, was near the bottom of voters' concerns until the 2015 refugee crisis, which postdated the referendum decision. UKIP, though, was building a populist brand also based on anti-immigration rhetoric, and not solely confined to Europe. Cameron thought he could neutralise the UKIP brand, but simultaneously avoid alienating metropolitan voters by focusing on immigration and law'n'order rhetoric, with a European referendum. The rest is unfortunate history, as they say.
    Except that Cameron pledged his referendum before the rise of UKIP.

    The voters were bothered and they voted accordingly, there is nothing unfortunate about it, the voters got what they wanted.

    That you think the voters getting what they wanted is unfortunate, and that all Labour's problems can magically vanish if they embrace PR, just shows how entirely out of touch you are.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited May 2021

    Anas doesn't seem to be cutting through despite his personal rating

    https://twitter.com/markmcgeoghegan/status/1389525963667562496?s=20

    Needed more time. I dont suppose the SNP and others would consent to a doover in a year? Everything else on hold until then.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Housing is a primary issue and house prices are a major consideration in the other cities too, as opposed to across the Red Wall were Barratt Homes-style new builds have been getting built and bought all over the North outside of the cities.
    https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/04/03/the-truth-behind-the-tories-northern-strongholds

    The Red Wall has the lowest house price to earnings ratio in the entire country.
    image

    Yes, the Red Wall has higher than average home ownership and older, more socially conservative demographics. Bigger cities don't.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,188
    kle4 said:

    Needed more time. I dont suppose the SNP and others would consent to a doover in a year? Everything else on hold until then.
    I think we have to wait for at least a generation.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    NEW Sky News/Opinium polling
    - Seat projections: SNP on for outright majority with 67 seats. Con on 29, Lab on 20
    - Scots tied 50-50 on support for indy referendum
    - 28% want #indyref within 2 yrs (SNP pledged to hold ref by end 2024)
    Via @SamCoatesSky

    With that Indy ref timing, I do not think Sturgeon is in for smooth sailing post election...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Warning. Talking about cryptocurrency puts you in the realms of conspiracy theorist on here. Even if you urge people to invest small amounts and use this market as a hedge and a hedge only.
    I'm trying to trade it, just sold my DOGE for Euro. Will buy back when it dips again, playing with a thousand doge...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,162
    Loved the thread header. A great read.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324
    edited May 2021
    IanB2 said:

    “Labour now is rich people telling poor people that other rich people are their problem.”

    Father Lenin said the Labour Party was a party of the worst kind of bourgeoisie reactionary. He is as right now as he was then.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    NEW Sky News/Opinium polling
    - Seat projections: SNP on for outright majority with 67 seats. Con on 29, Lab on 20
    - Scots tied 50-50 on support for indy referendum
    - 28% want #indyref within 2 yrs (SNP pledged to hold ref by end 2024)
    Via @SamCoatesSky

    With that Indy ref timing, I do not think Sturgeon is in for smooth sailing post election...

    She’s fucked, medium term
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,127
    edited May 2021

    No no no, the loss of the red wall predates Corbyn so it isn't his fault. The dam has been eroded over time, with no maintenance done by an arrogant local Labour hierarchy who think they are born to rule because its all the Tories fault.

    Labour's problem is that the dam burst thanks to Brexit. What you propose is that Labour go back to the failed Corbyn experiment, have a slate of wazzocks like Sam Tarry, Zarah Sultana and Laura Pillock as MPs and double down on policy so that Labour only talk to the bottom 5% and blame everything on the top 1% and say fuck all to everyone else.

    Labour's solution is not Starmer. Labour's solution is not Corbyn. It is not either / or you tosspot. As I tweeted earlier this morning the left and right in Labour fight like ferrets in a sack and neither side understand why you're in the sack in the first place.
    The Labour Party is the most repellent organisation I have come across in my lifetime, and despite sharing many of its aspirations, I have seen too much of its dirty politics and organised hypocrisy to ever consider voting for it. You mention Sam Tarry - the story of how he got his seat and how the most credible candidate - being the leader of the council - was nobbled to clear the way for a corbynite MP is a case in point. Truly dirty goings on.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    sarissa said:

    SELF SELECTING VOODOO POLL ALERT

    Snipped from the National a few minutes ago:





    Interesting to note that the idea of splitting votes and that voting SNP on the list is a waste seems to have got through to people.

    Which means the Independence votes seem to have worked out how to game the system and are likely to maximise the seats they will win.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited May 2021

    Except that Cameron pledged his referendum before the rise of UKIP.

    The voters were bothered and they voted accordingly, there is nothing unfortunate about it, the voters got what they wanted.

    That you think the voters getting what they wanted is unfortunate, and that all Labour's problems can magically vanish if they embrace PR, just shows how entirely out of touch you are.
    UKIP were increasingly alarming the Tories in late 2012, by then already starting to breaking through the ten per cent barrier in polls. Cameron announced the referendum in early 2013, as UKIP were getting ready to announce a record number of candidates in the upcoming elections.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849

    I voted for Nandy but thanks for calling me a tosspot.
    You are endlessly banging the Corbyn drum - that is what makes you a tosspot. Believing that a solid defeat in 2017 was a victory, and that a massive defeat in 2019 can just be ignored because look what a great result we got losing in 2017!

    I can't see how a Labour Party you would support would be a Labour Party that sufficient voters would support. Starmer hasn't gone remotely far enough in rebuilding the party but your position is to slide further backwards. Starmer can't make the changes needed because (a) he doesn't believe in it, (b) has half the party full of Corbynite idiots and (c) has the other half of the party still believing they are the natural party of local government because aren't the Tories evil!

    Ironically Paul Williams would be a great MP for Hartlepool - as a local doctor who literally created and led a GP's co-op to Take Back Control of diminshed healthcare provision from Virgin he actually know the town and its issues.

    But because he doesn't sound authentic for there and isn't willing to face into why people voted for self-harm he will be defeated by a posh farmer from miles away who like the other new Tory MPs in the area with no constituency link will treat the town and its people with disdain and be invisible.

    Labour should have selected someone local. Problem is that the local party are bonkers - the then Labour council leader defected to Scargill's Socialist Labour Party after a hate campaign by local Corbynite entryists that he was too right wing.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    Leon said:

    She’s fucked, medium term
    Depends - if Boris was sane he would allow the SNP to call the referendum now which would crash any post COVID boom in Scotland before it begun.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,765
    Weirdest photo I've seen in a while.
    I'm pretty sure it's just perspective distortion from a wide angle lens, but Jimmy Carter looks like a midget...
    https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/1389402795917430785
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,127
    kjh said:

    Yep done the latter a few times (so frustrating). Re the not properly closed door, yes quite a few times, but only once have I made a spectacular entrance. Only thing missing was the fanfare.
    I haven’t entered the house either, but I have had the door swing open on an embarrassing scene.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    eek said:

    Interesting to note that the idea of splitting votes and that voting SNP on the list is a waste seems to have got through to people.

    Which means the Independence votes seem to have worked out how to game the system and are likely to maximise the seats they will win.
    This is the readership of the National. Circulation: 9,000. That’s not a typo. It includes digital subscribers

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,188
    eek said:

    Interesting to note that the idea of splitting votes and that voting SNP on the list is a waste seems to have got through to people.

    Which means the Independence votes seem to have worked out how to game the system and are likely to maximise the seats they will win.
    That isn't supported by the more professional polling or indeed by the SNP herself where Nicola wants "both votes" so no one else gets to play with her ball.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108

    Not to me, he could see the writing on the wall. For him, his time in politics is over. He could either go down swinging as the DUP style rejectionist who opposed everything and people moved on without him - or he could be a man who goes down in history as the consumate outsider who got what he wanted delivered from challenging outside of Parliament.

    People give Farage far more credit than he deserves, he always preyed on pre-existing splits especially in the Tory Party. Once that split was healed, he had no future. Better for his legacy to finally claim victory than to continue kicking up a fuss. He can retire gracefully now, cashing in on his legacy in the USA etc now.
    If a crack is wide enough, a blunt instrument will suffuce.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,127

    The Tories didn't give that to the BXP, they gave it to the voters. That's why the voters switched. Thats why the voters abandoned the BXP leaving Farage powerless to avoid humiliation so having no choice but to stand down.

    Do you really think LD or Green voters (as opposed to LD or Green candidates) are obsessed by PR?
    Now that we’re down to low single figure percentages, they probably are! ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,089
    edited May 2021
    eek said:

    Interesting to note that the idea of splitting votes and that voting SNP on the list is a waste seems to have got through to people.

    Which means the Independence votes seem to have worked out how to game the system and are likely to maximise the seats they will win.
    No SNP majority as in 2011, no indyref2 and of course this UK Tory government will correctly only look at voteshares for the independence parties when it refuses indyref2 anyway and on the constituency vote at least most polls show the SNP vote will be under 50% and even on the list vote the Nationalist parties are unlikely to be much above 50% combined either.

    Only 42% of Scots want indyref2 now within the next 5 years, most do not want one until at least over five years time or never. Thus Boris will easily refuse indyref2 for the rest of this Parliament

    https://news.sky.com/story/elections-2021-scottish-voters-less-enthusiastic-about-independence-referendum-in-next-5-years-sky-news-poll-12296485

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    Nigelb said:

    Weirdest photo I've seen in a while.
    I'm pretty sure it's just perspective distortion from a wide angle lens, but Jimmy Carter looks like a midget...
    https://twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/1389402795917430785

    Honey I shrunk the president. And the FL0TUS
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    edited May 2021

    I don't know if anybody else heard the Starmer interview on R4 Today this morning, but it was quite interesting. He wasn't very good, actually (see, I am objective). But he did take the opportunity to set out briefly the 5 current top priorities for Labour at the next GE, whenever that is.

    His 5 priorities had echoes of Blair's 1997 pledge card. Interestingly, the fifth priority was about bringing an end to the divisions caused by the 'culture war' (although he didn't use that expression, of course). Anyway, signs of an emerging Labour policy platform to fill the current policy vacuum.

    I was struck by how relaxed he sounded - like a man who knows he is going to lead the party into the next GE. A nice betting play is coming up imo. The loss of Hartlepool is expected but will be splashed as a shock with all sorts of connotations it doesn't have. The markets might overreact and there could be some value betting into it.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm trying to trade it, just sold my DOGE for Euro. Will buy back when it dips again, playing with a thousand doge...
    I'm more of a long term guy. Where the price will rocket I think is if it looks like inflation is starting to bubble up again, particularly in the US.

    That makes it a good hedge again the weakening purchasing power of normal currencies. And the Western Central banks have printed a lot of money. But I only invest small amounts
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited May 2021
    eek said:

    Interesting to note that the idea of splitting votes and that voting SNP on the list is a waste seems to have got through to people.

    Which means the Independence votes seem to have worked out how to game the system and are likely to maximise the seats they will win.
    Unfortunately so. Surprised it took this long.

    But it's the system we have, and though gaming it will be attacked that doesnt matter much I'd say.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Fighting talk from Starmer this morning:

    “I don’t think anyone realistically thought it would be possible to turn Labour round from worst election result since 1935 to a position to win the next election within a period of one year"
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727
    On the BBC quiz show "Pointless" last week there was a round where contestants had to identify politicians from their photos. The aim was to identify the MP that scored the lowest in terms of members of the public surveyed recognising them. The programme was filmed since Covid regulations came in. Keir Starmer had 46 per cent recognition with the public, Anneliese Dodds 3 and Angela Rayner 4. The opposition doesn't seem to be cutting through with members of the public.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849
    edited May 2021
    Charles said:

    That’s changing the question. You said that the Freeport would do nothing for residents. GE is opening a factory there because it. That will do something for residents.

    I don’t care whether it was the mayor, the monkey or a giraffe from London Zoo that achieved it. But from what he has said - and he may be lying of course - the major has been advocating strongly for the Freeport so he had a role and deserves a share of the credit
    Oh give over. GE want a tax break to set up in the free port so that they can use imported parts to assemble products to be exported. Local industry doesn't get a boost from a freeport it gets demolished by them. We know freeports don't work, we have shut them all down - specifically the *Tories* shut them down in 2012.

    Mayor Houchen has presided over a net loss of jobs and despite the new GE factory the loss will only accelerate with the freeport completely sinking anything that isn't in the free zone. And what does this freeport zone do? Allow busines to function as if it was still in the EU. Yay...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,188
    Brom said:

    Fighting talk from Starmer this morning:

    “I don’t think anyone realistically thought it would be possible to turn Labour round from worst election result since 1935 to a position to win the next election within a period of one year"

    But I will go down with this ship
    And I won't put my hands up and surrender
    There will be no white flag* above my door
    I'm in love and always will be

    * well, maybe one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,681
    edited May 2021

    I'm more of a long term guy. Where the price will rocket I think is if it looks like inflation is starting to bubble up again, particularly in the US.

    That makes it a good hedge again the weakening purchasing power of normal currencies. And the Western Central banks have printed a lot of money. But I only invest small amounts
    Since you're on, can you provide a link to your comment from last night which said

    'More manna from heaven for the Trump tendency comes in the form of the new US census. The census apparently shows 5 million more votes were counted in 2020 than people recorded as voting.

    Its going to run and run with repub voters, this.'


    As this is a betting site quite a lot of us are interested in seeing the basis for that, including @rcs1000
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324

    I voted for Nandy but thanks for calling me a tosspot.

    This should be the slogan of her leadership campaign when Starmer gets hoofed out.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    No no no, the loss of the red wall predates Corbyn so it isn't his fault. The dam has been eroded over time, with no maintenance done by an arrogant local Labour hierarchy who think they are born to rule because its all the Tories fault.

    Labour's problem is that the dam burst thanks to Brexit. What you propose is that Labour go back to the failed Corbyn experiment, have a slate of wazzocks like Sam Tarry, Zarah Sultana and Laura Pillock as MPs and double down on policy so that Labour only talk to the bottom 5% and blame everything on the top 1% and say fuck all to everyone else.

    Labour's solution is not Starmer. Labour's solution is not Corbyn. It is not either / or you tosspot. As I tweeted earlier this morning the left and right in Labour fight like ferrets in a sack and neither side understand why you're in the sack in the first place.
    Labour reject who jumped in the sack to fight like a ferret in 2015 against Corbyn and fought like a ferret every day for 3 years criticises sack fighting.

    Said ex Labour hypocrite after quitting sack fighting applies to rejoin Labour in order to fight like a ferret against people like "Laura Pillock"

    Rejected for being a divisive nasty name calling piece of work so sad ex sack fighting poster is now politically homeless

    Sad tale really
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Oh give over. GE want a tax break to set up in the free port so that they can use imported parts to assemble products to be exported. Local industry doesn't get a boost from a freeport it gets demolished by them. We know freeports don't work, we have shut them all down - specifically the *Tories* shut them down in 2012.

    Mayor Houchen has presided over a net loss of jobs and despite the new GE factory the loss will only accelerate with the freeport completely sinking anything that isn't in the free zone. And what does this freeport zone do? Allow busines to function as if it was still in the EU. Yay...
    "Assemble products to be exported" is another description of . . . manufacturing. It is industry.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    Anas doesn't seem to be cutting through despite his personal rating

    https://twitter.com/markmcgeoghegan/status/1389525963667562496?s=20

    I have hopes for 2nd place. Perhaps optimistic then.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    SandraMc said:

    On the BBC quiz show "Pointless" last week there was a round where contestants had to identify politicians from their photos. The aim was to identify the MP that scored the lowest in terms of members of the public surveyed recognising them. The programme was filmed since Covid regulations came in. Keir Starmer had 46 per cent recognition with the public, Anneliese Dodds 3 and Angela Rayner 4. The opposition doesn't seem to be cutting through with members of the public.

    That has always been the case. I completed a research study on the topic around 2011. Only three politicians really cut through with the public at the time. William Hague, David Cameron and Ed Miliband. That was it. According to our measure of online public interest Nick Clegg had the same public profile in the UK as Kim Jong Il.

    If you really wanted to become anonymous, and I am talking FBI witness protection, the best strategy was to take a minor government job. Total career suicide as far as the public are concerned.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849
    HYUFD said:

    One thing Biden was good at when he won in 2020 was forgetting San Francisco and LA and New York where Hillary spent so much time fundraising in 2016 and where he knew he would win by miles anyway and focusing on the most boring bits of America in rustbelt Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which are full of white bluecollar voters much like those Labour need to win back now and campaigning on an economic inequality message without being socialist and not being too woke. Indeed despite the fact he won the EC Biden actually won California by less than Hillary did and New York by the same margin as Hillary did, he won where it mattered.

    Starmer should have been taking notes

    Its a reverse Blair. Offer the rustbelt the policies that appeal to them and challenge the chattering cosmopolitans to dare vote for someone else. The problem is that I don't think the chattering classes would give up their totems like that - its support this AND this AND this remember.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Hartlepool 2015
    Iain Wright Lab 14,076 35.6 -6.9
    Philip Broughton UKIP11,052 28.0 21.0
    Richard Royal Con 8,256 20.9 -7.2

    Hartlepool 2017
    Mike Hill Lab 21,969 52.5 16.9
    Carl Jackson Con14,319 34.2 13.3
    P Broughton UKIP4,801 11.5 -16.5

    Hartlepool 2019
    Mike Hill Lab 15,464 37.7 -14.8
    S Houghton Con 11,869 28.9 -5.3
    Richard Tice BXP 10,603 25.8 25.8

    Hartlepool 2021 CON GAIN first time not Labour since 1959

    SKS fans please explain how SKS has managed this

    In regards to the poll...

    Inject that beautiful potential result straight into my damn veins.

    Corbyn held that easily over Con + UKIP in 2017, Starmer can't because he is an unelectable posh centrist, simple.

    The Labour right won't care, their only goal is to rule the Labour party as they sink it into irrelevance.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Brom said:

    Fighting talk from Starmer

    Sack fighting talk?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Oh give over. GE want a tax break to set up in the free port so that they can use imported parts to assemble products to be exported. Local industry doesn't get a boost from a freeport it gets demolished by them. We know freeports don't work, we have shut them all down - specifically the *Tories* shut them down in 2012.

    Mayor Houchen has presided over a net loss of jobs and despite the new GE factory the loss will only accelerate with the freeport completely sinking anything that isn't in the free zone. And what does this freeport zone do? Allow busines to function as if it was still in the EU. Yay...
    Not a huge fan of Freeports as a concept, however, special economic zones tend to have a positive overall multiplier as the jobs created spill over into the wider area and national supply chains over time. What usually happens is that local companies begin to bid for smaller supply contracts with the big assembler in the SEZ and becuase they have zero cost of shipping it can be fairly competitive for the smaller contracts.

    I'm not sure it's more than a zero sum game, however, and there's a fair bit of evidence that SEZs eventually turn into a net zero unless they are wound down by which time you just have to hope the companies who have been brought in stick around.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    Labour’s woes boil down to the fact that their traditional heartlands are big fans of Brexit. They think Brexit will bring back the glory days. They are willing to give the Tories a try, ‘cos Brexit.

    So if Brexit is a success the Red Wall will continue to crumble and Labour are fucked. If Brexit is shit, and there’s no discernible improvement in these areas, then the Tories won’t be trusted again for a long time.

    That’s it. Everything else is froth.

    The Tories need to get money flowing to the left behind areas. I’m sceptical that will happen. Time will tell.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited May 2021
    SandraMc said:

    On the BBC quiz show "Pointless" last week there was a round where contestants had to identify politicians from their photos. The aim was to identify the MP that scored the lowest in terms of members of the public surveyed recognising them. The programme was filmed since Covid regulations came in. Keir Starmer had 46 per cent recognition with the public, Anneliese Dodds 3 and Angela Rayner 4. The opposition doesn't seem to be cutting through with members of the public.

    Not the opposition, everyone but the PM. Rishi Sunak joined Keir Starmer in the 40s, for example. And Ed Davey...well...

    I don't this reflects at all on Lab/Con. It's just the nature of opposition.


  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Corbyn lost Bishop Auckland, Blyth Valley, Darlington, North West Durham, Redcar, Sedgefield and Stockton South.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    @HYUFD when he's away from his computer but senses there has been a post about IndyRef2:

    LOL very good
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Brom said:

    Fighting talk from Starmer this morning:

    “I don’t think anyone realistically thought it would be possible to turn Labour round from worst election result since 1935 to a position to win the next election within a period of one year"

    Sounds like getting excuses in early to me. Midterm elections he really ought to be ahead, even if not winning the next GE.

    The problem with Starmer is he's been challenged and found wanting in the past year. He's had plenty of opportunities while the government have been struggling to deal with a pandemic to find issues with what the government is doing and oppose them, to suggest better alternatives.

    He has failed to do so.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    kinabalu said:

    I have hopes for 2nd place. Perhaps optimistic then.
    Why did SLab support the Hate Crime Bill - an incredible act of self harm.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    An interesting read on the harm Google and Facebook have done to your typical business while pretending to be helpful

    https://twitter.com/randfish/status/1389279726305353730
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    Cyclefree said:

    Let's focus on what the Tories "levelling up plan" actually means. Apparently nearly 18 months after the GE the Tories have finally got round to appointing someone to work out what it might mean - Neil O'Brien. See here - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/levelling-up-chief-neil-obrien-touted-as-proof-of-commitment-to-red-wall-psw605rfg.

    What does it mean. According to this article it means "Insiders suggested that levelling up could include four aspects — a regional economic policy; spreading opportunity across the country; improving the outputs and outcomes from public services; and non-economic outcomes of improving “quality of life” and “pride in place”."

    Sounds like empty vacuous slogans to me. In Copeland, one issue that lots of the locals mention is the state of the roads. They are awful. As for public services, the local councils are appalling at emptying their recycling centres. One centre - located next to a children's play area and SSI on the beach - is so bad that rubbish is blown about all over the place. The local waste authority is responsible for a statutory nuisance and this in an area dependant on tourism for its living.

    I have raised this with the local council, the Tory Mayor and the local Tory councillor. Neither of the latter two even bothered to reply.

    "Quality of life" and "pride in place" my arse!
    You seem disappointed that reality is different to the political promises of all parties. To be truly cynical, wait to you are 60ish...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    I find those results amazing. Has all of Blackford's campaigning for smuggest, most objectionable oaf in the Commons truly been in vain? Surely he has irritated more people than that.
    It depends when this was filmed but I find it remarkable after a global pandemic, when he's barely been off the screens, that two-thirds of the country can't name the Health Secretary from his picture.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Dura_Ace said:


    This should be the slogan of her leadership campaign when Starmer gets hoofed out.
    SKS was the "Unity" Candidate or as i said at the time the Useless Candidate
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849
    IanB2 said:

    The Labour Party is the most repellent organisation I have come across in my lifetime, and despite sharing many of its aspirations, I have seen too much of its dirty politics and organised hypocrisy to ever consider voting for it. You mention Sam Tarry - the story of how he got his seat and how the most credible candidate - being the leader of the council - was nobbled to clear the way for a corbynite MP is a case in point. Truly dirty goings on.
    Teesside:
    1. Unite select Jessie Jessie Jessie Joe Jacobs as the golden girl. Unite then mobilise to lie to the more inexperienced CLP members / officers to demand that an incorrect process be followed which would create a shortlist of only JJJJJJJJ. When this failed the loony left simply barred Dan Smith (her principle opponent) for his crime of tweeting support for an independent mayor before he was a Labour member. JJJJJJJJJJ responds to her anointing by tweeting her support for an independent mayor...
    2. Paul Williams was selected by Keir Starmer. His office then contacted the Hartlepool CLP senior officers via region to tell them the plan. That email is then written to explain the plan to the other CLP exec officers and explains how they will manage the forthcoming Executive Committee meeting and after the members meeting to ensure IDStarmer's candidate is the only candidate

    Two candidates - one egregiously shit, the other very good but utterly wrong for the seat in question.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Labour reject who jumped in the sack to fight like a ferret in 2015 against Corbyn and fought like a ferret every day for 3 years criticises sack fighting.

    Said ex Labour hypocrite after quitting sack fighting applies to rejoin Labour in order to fight like a ferret against people like "Laura Pillock"

    Rejected for being a divisive nasty name calling piece of work so sad ex sack fighting poster is now politically homeless

    Sad tale really
    Hey you have to be fair to Rochdale, remember having fun and saying I told you so to centrists who thought some centrist anti-left Labour leader was the solution to Labour getting elected only to find out it is even less electable than a left wing Labour leader isn't fun for the person who was wrong...

    Just us left wingers who were right are feeling incredibly smug, which can come across badly to others.

    In fairness I think some of them were knowingly lying rather than politically incompetent, it is important to be cynical when it comes to politics.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    DavidL said:

    I think we have to wait for at least a generation.
    For SLAB leadership changes, that's about 18-24 months....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    MaxPB said:

    Not a huge fan of Freeports as a concept, however, special economic zones tend to have a positive overall multiplier as the jobs created spill over into the wider area and national supply chains over time. What usually happens is that local companies begin to bid for smaller supply contracts with the big assembler in the SEZ and becuase they have zero cost of shipping it can be fairly competitive for the smaller contracts.

    I'm not sure it's more than a zero sum game, however, and there's a fair bit of evidence that SEZs eventually turn into a net zero unless they are wound down by which time you just have to hope the companies who have been brought in stick around.
    Certainly worked in Docklands. Canary Wharf says Hi

    I remember in about 1989 it was fashionable for Labour types to sneer at all development in East London, especially the Wharf. ‘A Thatcherite toy-town doomed to failure’ was the common refrain
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    DavidL said:

    I find those results amazing. Has all of Blackford's campaigning for smuggest, most objectionable oaf in the Commons truly been in vain? Surely he has irritated more people than that.
    I was surprised David Lammy was so low, given he does loads of LBC and other media stuff.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    SKS was the "Unity" Candidate or as i said at the time the Useless Candidate
    Quite right, the Labour Party didn't need "unity" with the nutjobs that you supported, it needed to expel them like Kinnock did.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    65 Covid cases in Wales over two days* compared to 33 last time.

    * Close the pubs !
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,188
    sarissa said:

    For SLAB leadership changes, that's about 18-24 months....
    I think Sarwar might be there a bit longer. He has more potential than any other since Wendy Alexander.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    algarkirk said:

    Ending culture wars is not in the gift of politicians, and most of the people whose votes he needs take no interest in university social science department and metro rubbish anyway.

    Starmer has actively chosen to participate in them - his taking the knee photo is his bacon sandwich moment.
This discussion has been closed.