Size does matter in Hartlepool – politicalbetting.com

Could the X factor in Hartlepoole, and elsewhere, be desire of a section of Tory and Conservative-leaning voters, to (as I think Casino Royale put it) to show their displeasure with certain aspects of the incumbent PM and his entourage, but without risking (at this juncture certainly) regime change?

Has happened before at by-elections and locals, and will no doubt happen again. So why not now?

IF the runoff is GOP versus GOP, then would expect Ellzey to come under significant pressure from Trumpsky, US House Republican Conference and other national & state GOP power centers, to fold his tent and end his campaign, despite fact his name's on the runoff ballot regardless (provided that Sanchez does NOT nip past him in the remaining votes).

Susan Wright
Republican
15,020 19.2%

Jake Ellzey
Republican
10,842 13.9

Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
10,476 13.4

Brian Harrison
Republican
8,474 10.8

Shawn Lassiter
Democrat
6,941 8.9

John Castro
Republican
4,308 5.5

Tammy Allison
Democrat
4,221 5.4

Lydia Bean
Democrat
2,913 3.7

Michael Wood
Republican
2,497 3.2

Michael Ballantine
Republican
2,212 2.8

Dan Rodimer
Republican
2,082 2.7

Daryl Eddings
Democrat
1,641 2.1

Mike Egan
Republican
1,541 2.0

Patrick Moses
Democrat
1,183 1.5

Manuel Salazar
Democrat
1,117 1.4

Sery Kim
Republican
887 1.1

Travis Rodermund
Republican
459 0.6

Adrian Mizher
Independent
351 0.4

Brian Stephenson
Democrat
271 0.3

Phil Gray
Libertarian
264 0.3

Matt Hinterlong
Democrat
252 0.3

Jenny Sharon
Republican
150 0.2

Chris Suprun
Democrat
102 0.1

Total reported
78,204

From Texas Tribune -

> Voters in Lubbock Texas in the Panhandle voted in favor of anti-abortion ordinance declaring the city the state's largest "sanctuary city for the unborn"
> In Fort Worth mayoral race, Mattie Parker and Deborah Peoples will head to a runoff
> Ron Nirenberg wins a third term as San Antonio Mayor
> San Antonio measure stripping police of collective bargaining power could be a nail-biter

Re: Fort Worth, mayor is elected on non-partisan basis (as in all Texas cities). Current mayor Betsy Price, a Republican, one of the few to currently govern a major American city. Two candidates topped the primary and will advance to the general: Mattie Parker, aide to Mayor Price and a fellow GOPer; and Deborah Peoples, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party.

Texas Tribune: "The race marks a political inflection point for Fort Worth. It is the seat of a county — Tarrant — that was once the state’s biggest red county, but that status has fallen into question after it went blue at the top of the ticket in the two most recent statewide elections. The county went for Beto O’Rourke in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2020."

Tarrant
Wright 9,165
Ellzey 4,732
Sanchez 8,284
100%

Ellis
W 4,498
E 5,431
S 1,835
100%

Navarro
W 1,389
E 688
S 378
100%

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

betting Post

F1: with some reservations, I've backed Russell for points at 3.3. He qualified 11th on pace, he was just half a tenth off Q3, and he has tyre choice.

What happened last time makes this a little reluctant but nothing else leapt out at me.

https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/05/portugal-pre-race-2021.html

If Richard Tice and the Brexit Party hadn’t stood in this seat in 2019 then this would have been a Tory gain at the 2019 general election

Shouldn’t there be a fairly significant caveat to that:

if the Brexit party voters had voted Tory

I can’t help but wonder how many Brexit party voters were those who felt unable to vote Tory, bearing in mind that we all knew the Faragista ego trip would win no seats while the larger the Tory majority, the easier Brexit would be.

Edit - we will of course get some indication of this in Hartlepool and Wales. If Brexit voters do head towards the Blues, Labour are toast in Hartlepool and face being wiped out outside the core Valleys; they will probably also lose Torfaen.

But I can’t see it happening.

Morris_Dancer said:

betting Post

F1: with some reservations, I've backed Russell for points at 3.3. He qualified 11th on pace, he was just half a tenth off Q3, and he has tyre choice.

What happened last time makes this a little reluctant but nothing else leapt out at me.

https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/05/portugal-pre-race-2021.html

Yes, good bet. 11th place does usually move forward during the race because of the tyre restrictions on the top 10.

Assuming he doesn’t bin it, take out one of the championship contenders in the car he wants to drive next season, get upset with everyone except himself and annoy all the bosses in the process.

AlistairM said:

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

He has just procured and had painted (at vast expense and with taxpayers' money) a VVIP A321 - not to be confused with VIP A330 and its million quid paint job. There is zero chance he (and FLOTUK) are going to relinquish the post-covid junkets in that to the Goldman-Sachs Elf and his Mrs any time soon.

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Perhaps T May's John Lewis stuff could have been saved from the skip........

Dura_Ace said:

AlistairM said:

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

He has just procured and had painted (at vast expense and with taxpayers' money) a VVIP A321 - not to be confused with VIP A330 and its million quid paint job. There is zero chance he (and FLOTUK) are going to relinquish the post-covid junkets in that to the Goldman-Sachs Elf and his Mrs any time soon.

We come back again to the fact that no Prime Minister since Wilson has given up power before they had to. And he was only the third (at most) in the twentieth century, after Baldwin and possibly Salisbury, who was a lot more ill than he realised.

IanB2 said:

Simon Jenkins: By the end of next week, the bizarre “union of four nations”, much cited during Covid, could be seriously at risk. As throughout history, England is hopeless at managing such risks. Boris Johnson seized power by championing British nationalism, yet he has only contempt for the nationalism of others. Last November Johnson called granting more power to Scotland “a disaster”, declaring devolution to be “Tony Blair’s biggest mistake”. That may soon be another quote he will deny ever having said.

Which would be ironic, as arguably it was a rare moment that Johnson was right.

That is said on the basis the Iraq War would have happened whether we took part or not.

IanB2 said:

Simon Jenkins: By the end of next week, the bizarre “union of four nations”, much cited during Covid, could be seriously at risk. As throughout history, England is hopeless at managing such risks. Boris Johnson seized power by championing British nationalism, yet he has only contempt for the nationalism of others. Last November Johnson called granting more power to Scotland “a disaster”, declaring devolution to be “Tony Blair’s biggest mistake”. That may soon be another quote he will deny ever having said.

It’s sad that so many of the Commentariat seem to be gleefully talking up the dissolution of the country, purely as a means to get back at Johnson and Brexit.

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Simon Jenkins: By the end of next week, the bizarre “union of four nations”, much cited during Covid, could be seriously at risk. As throughout history, England is hopeless at managing such risks. Boris Johnson seized power by championing British nationalism, yet he has only contempt for the nationalism of others. Last November Johnson called granting more power to Scotland “a disaster”, declaring devolution to be “Tony Blair’s biggest mistake”. That may soon be another quote he will deny ever having said.

It’s sad that so many of the Commentariat seem to be gleefully talking up the dissolution of the country, purely as a means to get back at Johnson and Brexit.

I wonder whether Johnson might go for repeal of the Scottish Parliament Act.

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

AlistairM said:

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

He has just procured and had painted (at vast expense and with taxpayers' money) a VVIP A321 - not to be confused with VIP A330 and its million quid paint job. There is zero chance he (and FLOTUK) are going to relinquish the post-covid junkets in that to the Goldman-Sachs Elf and his Mrs any time soon.

We come back again to the fact that no Prime Minister since Wilson has given up power before they had to. And he was only the third (at most) in the twentieth century, after Baldwin and possibly Salisbury, who was a lot more ill than he realised.

Eden?, though medical again, as indeed was Wilson.

I remember turning a corner in Westminster in about 1983, and bumped into an old couple, the lady helping a very fragile looking old man. He looked familiar, and sure enough it was the Wilsons.

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Simon Jenkins: By the end of next week, the bizarre “union of four nations”, much cited during Covid, could be seriously at risk. As throughout history, England is hopeless at managing such risks. Boris Johnson seized power by championing British nationalism, yet he has only contempt for the nationalism of others. Last November Johnson called granting more power to Scotland “a disaster”, declaring devolution to be “Tony Blair’s biggest mistake”. That may soon be another quote he will deny ever having said.

It’s sad that so many of the Commentariat seem to be gleefully talking up the dissolution of the country, purely as a means to get back at Johnson and Brexit.

The Commentariat are an embittered bunch, failing to get to grips with a world where people no longer need to pay them for their detached, lofty opinions to which we should defer. The glitterati of the Twitterati will now do that for free, within seconds.

CarlottaVance said:

Some fascinating detail in this, including the bafflingly surreal one that, while Scottish voters think the SNP Scottish Government has done badly on education, they think it has done well on immigration and defence.

Could someone please have a stern word with Scottish voters?

https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1388747777031692290?s=20

Indy Scotland is going to be a place where the Scots are asked to believe six impossible things before breakfast.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

That is true. Retiring from Number 10 is a one-shot deal.

On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.

Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.

I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.

Starmer is slightly older than Johnson. Both are likely to to be the last Boomer party leaders.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

AlistairM said:

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

He has just procured and had painted (at vast expense and with taxpayers' money) a VVIP A321 - not to be confused with VIP A330 and its million quid paint job. There is zero chance he (and FLOTUK) are going to relinquish the post-covid junkets in that to the Goldman-Sachs Elf and his Mrs any time soon.

We come back again to the fact that no Prime Minister since Wilson has given up power before they had to. And he was only the third (at most) in the twentieth century, after Baldwin and possibly Salisbury, who was a lot more ill than he realised.

Eden?, though medical again, as indeed was Wilson.

I remember turning a corner in Westminster in about 1983, and bumped into an old couple, the lady helping a very fragile looking old man. He looked familiar, and sure enough it was the Wilsons.

He has a nice resting place in Old Town churchyard on St. Mary's, Scilly.

He regularly gets a bunch of twitchers wandering around his grave.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

AlistairM said:

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

He has just procured and had painted (at vast expense and with taxpayers' money) a VVIP A321 - not to be confused with VIP A330 and its million quid paint job. There is zero chance he (and FLOTUK) are going to relinquish the post-covid junkets in that to the Goldman-Sachs Elf and his Mrs any time soon.

We come back again to the fact that no Prime Minister since Wilson has given up power before they had to. And he was only the third (at most) in the twentieth century, after Baldwin and possibly Salisbury, who was a lot more ill than he realised.

Eden?, though medical again, as indeed was Wilson.

I remember turning a corner in Westminster in about 1983, and bumped into an old couple, the lady helping a very fragile looking old man. He looked familiar, and sure enough it was the Wilsons.

Eden was told that he would die if he continued in office. (Macmillan was told of course that he was terminally ill, a diagnosis that turned out to be wrong.)

Wilson had early stage colon cancer and Alzheimer’s, but the main reason he left seems to have been he was fed up with the role and wanted to retire. He did not *have* to give up power at the time he did.

I have to say I think there is a difference there.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

That is true. Retiring from Number 10 is a one-shot deal.

On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.

Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.

I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.

Starmer is slightly older than Johnson. Both are likely to to be the last Boomer party leaders.

That reminds me of an old observation by Ken Livingstone, talking about MPs' salaries. For most Conservatives, it's a pay cut. For most Labour MPs, it's the most they've earned in their lives.

That was probably true when he said it. I don’t think that’s necessarily true now. Starmer, for example, must have been on better money as DPP than he was as an ordinary MP. Nick Thomas-Symonds probably earned about the same as a senior Fellow of St Edmund Hall as he does now.

This is an interesting proposal.

Covid: Quarantine for Covid contacts could be scrapped
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56958885

Admittedly, given they cause me to throw up I’d almost rather stay indoors for ten days than do a LFT every day, but given the inconvenience and expense of self isolating I can see why an alternative is needed.

I’m also hoping this won’t be for long, as once everyone’s been offered a vaccine there won’t be much need to worry about it spreading.

Scott_xP said:

MarqueeMark said:

Indy Scotland is going to be a place where the Scots are asked to believe six impossible things before breakfast.

Brexiteers can show them how it's done

Not so much Mock Turtle as Total Mocking.

nico679 said:

Leavers need to own the consequences of their vote and stop either blaming the EU or Remainers for the all the problems that this has caused .

And I want a pony...

Two columns about truth in politics.

First from @bbclaurak on @BorisJohnson which includes this warning that sources on the “bodies” quote that Johnson denied at dispatch box could contradict him under oath.

And in the subject of perjury...1/2

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56624437 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1388755968092160000/photo/1

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

That is true. Retiring from Number 10 is a one-shot deal.

On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.

Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.

I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.

Starmer is slightly older than Johnson. Both are likely to to be the last Boomer party leaders.

That reminds me of an old observation by Ken Livingstone, talking about MPs' salaries. For most Conservatives, it's a pay cut. For most Labour MPs, it's the most they've earned in their lives.

That was probably true when he said it. I don’t think that’s necessarily true now. Starmer, for example, must have been on better money as DPP than he was as an ordinary MP. Nick Thomas-Symonds probably earned about the same as a senior Fellow of St Edmund Hall as he does now.

Personally I’d make an MP salary higher, but with much tighter restrictions on outside earnings. Maybe £90k or so, which would also raise ministerial salaries.

There’s a separate issue of pay being too high in many other public sector roles, which also needs to be addressed. Six-figure salaries need to come with a risk attached, or be paid relative to performance.

FrankBooth said:

CarlottaVance said:

Some fascinating detail in this, including the bafflingly surreal one that, while Scottish voters think the SNP Scottish Government has done badly on education, they think it has done well on immigration and defence.

Could someone please have a stern word with Scottish voters?

https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1388747777031692290?s=20

Maybe people give the SNP a plus on defence because they like the policies even if they don't have the powers? Which is worrying because it suggests what the SNP is good at requires independence.

That could well be the case

Have we all done our predictions on here for e Scottish elections yet? I still think SNP will fall short of a majority, but will be very tight.

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

If Boris Johnson cannot afford to have children, he should stop siring them.

Justin will shortly be along with a lecture on how the bastard should stop having more bastards...

To be fair (though not to Justin), there is a genuine problem there.

Remember the Free School Meal/Foodbox row? One of the arguments, voiced a lot by generic newish Conservative MPs for Redwall North, was that people shouldn't have children they can't afford. It was OK for Boris's spunk to burst out everywhere, because he was paying his way.

That argument has lost a fair bit of its force after the last few days.

Sandpit said:

It’s sad that so many of the Commentariat seem to be gleefully talking up the dissolution of the country, purely as a means to get back at Johnson and Brexit.

It's really sad that the breakup of the United Kingdom is an inevitable consequence of Brexit

Little Englanders for the win...

Interesting story from the Sunday Telegraph that Downing Street will consider increasing spending in Scotland - but only if people vote for pro-independence parties. Odd time to admit that! 😅
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/1388605708887805954

ydoethur said:

If Richard Tice and the Brexit Party hadn’t stood in this seat in 2019 then this would have been a Tory gain at the 2019 general election

Shouldn’t there be a fairly significant caveat to that:

if the Brexit party voters had voted Tory

I can’t help but wonder how many Brexit party voters were those who felt unable to vote Tory, bearing in mind that we all knew the Faragista ego trip would win no seats while the larger the Tory majority, the easier Brexit would be.

Edit - we will of course get some indication of this in Hartlepool and Wales. If Brexit voters do head towards the Blues, Labour are toast in Hartlepool and face being wiped out outside the core Valleys; they will probably also lose Torfaen.

But I can’t see it happening.

Don't forget that the BXP strategy was explicitly to stop Tory gains with a view of keeping the Tories honest and on track for the hardest trade deal possible post-Brexit. So I'm not sure that we can read too much into the motivation of Lab > BXP switchers and what that means now.

In practice these voters have got No Deal in name only. We have signed a deal with the EU which doesn't work so badly that we have had to drop most of the requirements that let us run a border. So they should be angry about that - and might be had they not been told by their part of the media what an excellent Brexit we've had and how its all working perfectly.

Stuartinromford said:

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

If Boris Johnson cannot afford to have children, he should stop siring them.

Justin will shortly be along with a lecture on how the bastard should stop having more bastards...

To be fair (though not to Justin), there is a genuine problem there.

Remember the Free School Meal/Foodbox row? One of the arguments, voiced a lot by generic newish Conservative MPs for Redwall North, was that people shouldn't have children they can't afford. It was OK for Boris's spunk to burst out everywhere, because he was paying his way.

That argument has lost a fair bit of its force after the last few days.

Every now and then someone accuses me of being some kind of prude for attacking Shagger over his string of mistresses and discarded children. This isn't about sex - if he is an over-sexed lothario then he should be single and use rubbers.

What I have a problem with is a man who cannot be trusted - and ask Carrie about Shagger's affair with the [superinjunction] to ask if he can be trusted. Perhaps that is why we have had the transformation in their relationship. It is only after he betrayed her with the thing that cannot be mentioned that she has driven all this - the £200k flat refurb, the end of Cummings and his forthcoming revenge, the growing financial scandals.

If he discarded her and the child as he usually does. he wouldn't be in this much shit.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

That is true. Retiring from Number 10 is a one-shot deal.

On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.

Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.

I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.

Starmer is slightly older than Johnson. Both are likely to to be the last Boomer party leaders.

That reminds me of an old observation by Ken Livingstone, talking about MPs' salaries. For most Conservatives, it's a pay cut. For most Labour MPs, it's the most they've earned in their lives.

That was probably true when he said it. I don’t think that’s necessarily true now. Starmer, for example, must have been on better money as DPP than he was as an ordinary MP. Nick Thomas-Symonds probably earned about the same as a senior Fellow of St Edmund Hall as he does now.

Personally I’d make an MP salary higher, but with much tighter restrictions on outside earnings. Maybe £90k or so, which would also raise ministerial salaries.

There’s a separate issue of pay being too high in many other public sector roles, which also needs to be addressed. Six-figure salaries need to come with a risk attached, or be paid relative to performance.

That’s a good point. For example, the last chief executive of Carmarthenshire County Council, Mark James, was on £175,000 a year, plus expenses (which were substantial as he was in and out of court all the time on corruption allegations).

For what is a pretty minor role, I cannot understand why he was worth that much. Even if he hadn’t been completely useless and a crook.

The new one is paid less, but it’s still £145,000 to start. Not far off what the PM earns for a far easier job.

Maybe the salary of a headteacher - which is a much more demanding role - would be applicable.

But even at that, we should be paying the Prime Minister more. FFS, do we really *want* somebody comparable to a provincial council clerk in the role?

Do we want someone primarily motivated by income in the role?🤔

The PMs salary is 6 times Median income, with additional perks including free accommodation in Westminster, an annual decorating allowance beyond annual income (seemingly not taxed as a BIK) a stately home as a second home, plus MPs expenses. That seems pretty generous to me. The £150 000 is just pocket money.

Additionally, there is no problem with Ms Symmonds getting a job if she wants to decorate the flat at one go, rather than do a few rooms at a time.

That is not hard up, not by any stretch of the term, and it is right and proper that the PM has to watch his personal spending. After all the rest of us do.

Razedabode said:

FrankBooth said:

CarlottaVance said:

Some fascinating detail in this, including the bafflingly surreal one that, while Scottish voters think the SNP Scottish Government has done badly on education, they think it has done well on immigration and defence.

Could someone please have a stern word with Scottish voters?

https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1388747777031692290?s=20

Maybe people give the SNP a plus on defence because they like the policies even if they don't have the powers? Which is worrying because it suggests what the SNP is good at requires independence.

That could well be the case

Have we all done our predictions on here for e Scottish elections yet? I still think SNP will fall short of a majority, but will be very tight.

I think SLAB will be in second place in the popular vote, and possibly seats. Voting SLAB is the way to kick both Sturgeon and Johnson in the arse.

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dominic Cummings is eager for Rishi Sunak to become prime minister so that his gang of Vote Leave campaigners have a “new host” for their ambitions.....

...Johnson’s aides are concerned that Cummings has stockpiled further damaging material to engineer the prime minister’s political demise.

Incendiary claims about Johnson’s reaction to the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox as polling day approached in the Brexit referendum in June 2016 are doing the rounds in Westminster.

According to those who have heard the story, Johnson was upset at the effect Cox’s death would have on him politically. Aides travelling with him that day say this is untrue and he was “very sombre”.

Senior Tories are also concerned that Johnson’s private thoughts about his cabinet and fellow MPs could be revealed.

A prominent Eurosceptic said: “That would undermine support in Westminster, and it’s MPs, not voters, who can get rid of him.” Under Conservative Party rules, about 55 Tory MPs would need to submit a letter to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee to force a vote of no confidence.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vengeful-dominic-cummings-wants-rishi-sunak-in-no-10-7kzbfcg7w

If Cummings can’t keep private things private, why would anyone trust him in future? Not a hugely intelligent career move.

Cummings has said very little except for his statement. This is ‘friends of the PM’ worried that Cummings has a pile of dirt from his time in No.10.

Presumably the same friends of the PM who falsely accused Cummings of leaking stuff a couple of weeks ago, and dragged the former advisor’s name into the mud in the first place?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dominic Cummings is eager for Rishi Sunak to become prime minister so that his gang of Vote Leave campaigners have a “new host” for their ambitions.....

...Johnson’s aides are concerned that Cummings has stockpiled further damaging material to engineer the prime minister’s political demise.

Incendiary claims about Johnson’s reaction to the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox as polling day approached in the Brexit referendum in June 2016 are doing the rounds in Westminster.

According to those who have heard the story, Johnson was upset at the effect Cox’s death would have on him politically. Aides travelling with him that day say this is untrue and he was “very sombre”.

Senior Tories are also concerned that Johnson’s private thoughts about his cabinet and fellow MPs could be revealed.

A prominent Eurosceptic said: “That would undermine support in Westminster, and it’s MPs, not voters, who can get rid of him.” Under Conservative Party rules, about 55 Tory MPs would need to submit a letter to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee to force a vote of no confidence.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vengeful-dominic-cummings-wants-rishi-sunak-in-no-10-7kzbfcg7w

If Cummings can’t keep private things private, why would anyone trust him in future? Not a hugely intelligent career move.

Does Cummings care about career moves? He spends years sitting around reading books, which does not sound like an expensive lifestyle.

I dunno.

He might fancy making Colonel, like Philby did.

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Some fascinating detail in this, including the bafflingly surreal one that, while Scottish voters think the SNP Scottish Government has done badly on education, they think it has done well on immigration and defence.

Could someone please have a stern word with Scottish voters?

https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1388747777031692290?s=20

Indy Scotland is going to be a place where the Scots are asked to believe six impossible things before breakfast.

You unionists really are full of green cheese, hate your colony having aspirations.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

That is true. Retiring from Number 10 is a one-shot deal.

On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.

Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.

I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.

Starmer is slightly older than Johnson. Both are likely to to be the last Boomer party leaders.

That reminds me of an old observation by Ken Livingstone, talking about MPs' salaries. For most Conservatives, it's a pay cut. For most Labour MPs, it's the most they've earned in their lives.

That was probably true when he said it. I don’t think that’s necessarily true now. Starmer, for example, must have been on better money as DPP than he was as an ordinary MP. Nick Thomas-Symonds probably earned about the same as a senior Fellow of St Edmund Hall as he does now.

Personally I’d make an MP salary higher, but with much tighter restrictions on outside earnings. Maybe £90k or so, which would also raise ministerial salaries.

There’s a separate issue of pay being too high in many other public sector roles, which also needs to be addressed. Six-figure salaries need to come with a risk attached, or be paid relative to performance.

That’s a good point. For example, the last chief executive of Carmarthenshire County Council, Mark James, was on £175,000 a year, plus expenses (which were substantial as he was in and out of court all the time on corruption allegations).

For what is a pretty minor role, I cannot understand why he was worth that much. Even if he hadn’t been completely useless and a crook.

The new one is paid less, but it’s still £145,000 to start. Not far off what the PM earns for a far easier job.

Maybe the salary of a headteacher - which is a much more demanding role - would be applicable.

But even at that, we should be paying the Prime Minister more. FFS, do we really *want* somebody comparable to a provincial council clerk in the role?

Do we want someone primarily motivated by income in the role?🤔

No.

But here’s another question.

Do we want people of ability and experience in high profile roles outside government to decide the drop in their income means they can’t afford to be an MP or minister?

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dominic Cummings is eager for Rishi Sunak to become prime minister so that his gang of Vote Leave campaigners have a “new host” for their ambitions.....

...Johnson’s aides are concerned that Cummings has stockpiled further damaging material to engineer the prime minister’s political demise.

Incendiary claims about Johnson’s reaction to the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox as polling day approached in the Brexit referendum in June 2016 are doing the rounds in Westminster.

According to those who have heard the story, Johnson was upset at the effect Cox’s death would have on him politically. Aides travelling with him that day say this is untrue and he was “very sombre”.

Senior Tories are also concerned that Johnson’s private thoughts about his cabinet and fellow MPs could be revealed.

A prominent Eurosceptic said: “That would undermine support in Westminster, and it’s MPs, not voters, who can get rid of him.” Under Conservative Party rules, about 55 Tory MPs would need to submit a letter to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee to force a vote of no confidence.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vengeful-dominic-cummings-wants-rishi-sunak-in-no-10-7kzbfcg7w

If Cummings can’t keep private things private, why would anyone trust him in future? Not a hugely intelligent career move.

He will claim that he is a whistleblower - and has the evidence to back it all up.

Because whistleblowers are also highly popular among prospective employers...

Edit. - not that I am especially exercised about Cummings’ fate or think he is a whistleblower.

I think Jim Callaghan, John Major and Gordon Brown were all comfortable after losing office.

Ted Heath, Margaret Thatcher and, to a lesser extent, Theresa May were not. Cameron seems slightly at a loose end to me. Blair is an unusual one in that he's not in office but still acts as if he is.

I think there's a difference between losing to the electorate (which politicians can and do accept) and being kicked out by your own party.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

If Boris Johnson cannot afford to have children, he should stop siring them.

How old are Boris's children? He will get an effective payrise whenever one of them leaves their expensive public school (unless Marina signs the cheques).

Not sure I agree. Most of my colleagues find it’s more expensive to put them through uni (albeit most of them weren’t paying school fees).

Sean_F said:

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Simon Jenkins: By the end of next week, the bizarre “union of four nations”, much cited during Covid, could be seriously at risk. As throughout history, England is hopeless at managing such risks. Boris Johnson seized power by championing British nationalism, yet he has only contempt for the nationalism of others. Last November Johnson called granting more power to Scotland “a disaster”, declaring devolution to be “Tony Blair’s biggest mistake”. That may soon be another quote he will deny ever having said.

It’s sad that so many of the Commentariat seem to be gleefully talking up the dissolution of the country, purely as a means to get back at Johnson and Brexit.

Aesop's Sour Grapes. A section of the commentariat regard the break up of the UK and economic collapse as a fitting punishment for being outvoted by people they hate.

It's all they've got, otherwise they'd have to accept they were wrong and admit their vote was purely a values one.

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

That is true. Retiring from Number 10 is a one-shot deal.

On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.

Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.

I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.

Starmer is slightly older than Johnson. Both are likely to to be the last Boomer party leaders.

That reminds me of an old observation by Ken Livingstone, talking about MPs' salaries. For most Conservatives, it's a pay cut. For most Labour MPs, it's the most they've earned in their lives.

That was probably true when he said it. I don’t think that’s necessarily true now. Starmer, for example, must have been on better money as DPP than he was as an ordinary MP. Nick Thomas-Symonds probably earned about the same as a senior Fellow of St Edmund Hall as he does now.

Personally I’d make an MP salary higher, but with much tighter restrictions on outside earnings. Maybe £90k or so, which would also raise ministerial salaries.

There’s a separate issue of pay being too high in many other public sector roles, which also needs to be addressed. Six-figure salaries need to come with a risk attached, or be paid relative to performance.

That’s a good point. For example, the last chief executive of Carmarthenshire County Council, Mark James, was on £175,000 a year, plus expenses (which were substantial as he was in and out of court all the time on corruption allegations).

For what is a pretty minor role, I cannot understand why he was worth that much. Even if he hadn’t been completely useless and a crook.

The new one is paid less, but it’s still £145,000 to start. Not far off what the PM earns for a far easier job.

Maybe the salary of a headteacher - which is a much more demanding role - would be applicable.

But even at that, we should be paying the Prime Minister more. FFS, do we really *want* somebody comparable to a provincial council clerk in the role?

Do we want someone primarily motivated by income in the role?🤔

No.

But here’s another question.

Do we want people of ability and experience in high profile roles outside government to decide the drop in their income means they can’t afford to be an MP or minister?

Yes, I am quite happy that we do. We have enough posh lawyers and millionaire businesspeople in Parliament. What we need is more social class and regional diversity. There are probably fewer working class people now in Parliament than at any other time in the last century.

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

That is true. Retiring from Number 10 is a one-shot deal.

On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.

Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.

I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.

Starmer is slightly older than Johnson. Both are likely to to be the last Boomer party leaders.

That reminds me of an old observation by Ken Livingstone, talking about MPs' salaries. For most Conservatives, it's a pay cut. For most Labour MPs, it's the most they've earned in their lives.

That was probably true when he said it. I don’t think that’s necessarily true now. Starmer, for example, must have been on better money as DPP than he was as an ordinary MP. Nick Thomas-Symonds probably earned about the same as a senior Fellow of St Edmund Hall as he does now.

Personally I’d make an MP salary higher, but with much tighter restrictions on outside earnings. Maybe £90k or so, which would also raise ministerial salaries.

There’s a separate issue of pay being too high in many other public sector roles, which also needs to be addressed. Six-figure salaries need to come with a risk attached, or be paid relative to performance.

That’s a good point. For example, the last chief executive of Carmarthenshire County Council, Mark James, was on £175,000 a year, plus expenses (which were substantial as he was in and out of court all the time on corruption allegations).

For what is a pretty minor role, I cannot understand why he was worth that much. Even if he hadn’t been completely useless and a crook.

The new one is paid less, but it’s still £145,000 to start. Not far off what the PM earns for a far easier job.

Maybe the salary of a headteacher - which is a much more demanding role - would be applicable.

But even at that, we should be paying the Prime Minister more. FFS, do we really *want* somebody comparable to a provincial council clerk in the role?

He is already being paid multiple times what he is worth, a petty crook who should be tarred and feathered and run out of town. He gets everything free and poor soul has to survive on 150K pocket money , poor diddums.

Interestingly, Sturgeon gets about the same - £151,000.

IanB2 said:

The Sunday Rawnsley: Why sleaze investigations are becoming more menacing for Boris Johnson

He dismisses all the questions about his behaviour as a “whole farrago of nonsense”. This is what poker players would call a tell. Those familiar with his pathology will know that he often dials up the bluster when he has something to hide. The worse the misconduct he is trying to conceal, the rantier he tends to get.

He could clear it up today and save everyone a lot of time by showing when he paid the bill. There must be a reason he won’t do this and the reason must be an extremely compelling one given that he’d apparently prefer to endure days of rotten headlines in the run-up to this Thursday’s big set of elections rather than give us full disclosure.

There is a shoulder-shrugging view that none of this much matters. The cynical dismissiveness of many Tories is itself a symptom of the problem we have with integrity in public life.

This is a ridiculous nest of conflicts of interest. It becomes an absolutely ludicrous one when the prime minister himself is the subject of investigation. Even if Lord Geidt or Mr Case conclude that their boss has broken the rules and even if they are willing to say so, there is nothing but shame to prevent him from tossing aside their verdicts and declaring himself not guilty. And we know shame is a sensation that this prime minister is impervious to.

This is why it is so essential that properly independent investigators are on the case. That’s a court in which Boris Johnson can’t be his own judge and jury.

What is wrong with Johnson being his own judge and jury ask fanbois like pub man and Bluest Blue? He should have the same rights as the man in the street and that includes the "law doesn't apply to me because it is stupid and do you know who I am" defence.

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

AlistairM said:

From reading the last thread it is clear that Boris can't afford to stay PM. He was just about financially viable before being PM when he could have other sources of income such as his Telegraph column. Without that the can't afford his lifestyle, particularly with Carrie's very high standards for interior decor.

I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.

If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.

Whenever he leaves he can go back to earning the big money.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.

That is true. Retiring from Number 10 is a one-shot deal.

On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.

Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.

I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.

Starmer is slightly older than Johnson. Both are likely to to be the last Boomer party leaders.

That reminds me of an old observation by Ken Livingstone, talking about MPs' salaries. For most Conservatives, it's a pay cut. For most Labour MPs, it's the most they've earned in their lives.

That was probably true when he said it. I don’t think that’s necessarily true now. Starmer, for example, must have been on better money as DPP than he was as an ordinary MP. Nick Thomas-Symonds probably earned about the same as a senior Fellow of St Edmund Hall as he does now.

Personally I’d make an MP salary higher, but with much tighter restrictions on outside earnings. Maybe £90k or so, which would also raise ministerial salaries.

There’s a separate issue of pay being too high in many other public sector roles, which also needs to be addressed. Six-figure salaries need to come with a risk attached, or be paid relative to performance.

You would let them keep the free houses , free food and almost anything they need claimed as expenses down to paper clips and a pint of milk, wives and family being employed on big salaries, gold plated pensions, etc. They are very well looked after indeed.