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Size does matter in Hartlepool – politicalbetting.com
Size does matter in Hartlepool – politicalbetting.com
Ever since the Hartlepool by election has been called I’ve vacillated between a Tory gain and a easy Labour hold. If Richard Tice and the Brexit Party hadn’t stood in this seat in 2019 then this would have been a Tory gain at the 2019 general election so that is what I drove my belief that this should be a Tory gain at the by election particularly once it was confirmed Richard Tice wasn’t standing, however it isn’t December 2019 now.
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Has happened before at by-elections and locals, and will no doubt happen again. So why not now?
Wright 9,133
Ellzey 4,723
Sanchez 8,263
91% counted
Ellis
W 4,498
E 5,431
S 1,835
100% counted
Navarro
W 1,389
E 688
S 378
100% counted
Appears there is bit more there there in Tarrant than AP/NYT first thought. Though keep in mind, there will be a few votes (provisionals and some others) that will remain to be counted after tonight in all three counties. But not many.
Republican
15,020 19.2%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
10,842 13.9
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
10,476 13.4
Brian Harrison
Republican
8,474 10.8
Shawn Lassiter
Democrat
6,941 8.9
John Castro
Republican
4,308 5.5
Tammy Allison
Democrat
4,221 5.4
Lydia Bean
Democrat
2,913 3.7
Michael Wood
Republican
2,497 3.2
Michael Ballantine
Republican
2,212 2.8
Dan Rodimer
Republican
2,082 2.7
Daryl Eddings
Democrat
1,641 2.1
Mike Egan
Republican
1,541 2.0
Patrick Moses
Democrat
1,183 1.5
Manuel Salazar
Democrat
1,117 1.4
Sery Kim
Republican
887 1.1
Travis Rodermund
Republican
459 0.6
Adrian Mizher
Independent
351 0.4
Brian Stephenson
Democrat
271 0.3
Phil Gray
Libertarian
264 0.3
Matt Hinterlong
Democrat
252 0.3
Jenny Sharon
Republican
150 0.2
Chris Suprun
Democrat
102 0.1
Total reported
78,204
Also voted in favor of municipal ranked choice voting but against public financing of city elections via $25 "Democracy Vouchers" given to voters for donating to favored candidates (system has been used in Seattle for several election cycles, with more & more candidates & campaigns) Austin voters also approved measure transferring appointment power of new police oversight commissioner from city manager to city council.
> Voters in Lubbock Texas in the Panhandle voted in favor of anti-abortion ordinance declaring the city the state's largest "sanctuary city for the unborn"
> In Fort Worth mayoral race, Mattie Parker and Deborah Peoples will head to a runoff
> Ron Nirenberg wins a third term as San Antonio Mayor
> San Antonio measure stripping police of collective bargaining power could be a nail-biter
Re: Fort Worth, mayor is elected on non-partisan basis (as in all Texas cities). Current mayor Betsy Price, a Republican, one of the few to currently govern a major American city. Two candidates topped the primary and will advance to the general: Mattie Parker, aide to Mayor Price and a fellow GOPer; and Deborah Peoples, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party.
Texas Tribune: "The race marks a political inflection point for Fort Worth. It is the seat of a county — Tarrant — that was once the state’s biggest red county, but that status has fallen into question after it went blue at the top of the ticket in the two most recent statewide elections. The county went for Beto O’Rourke in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2020."
Susan Wright
Republican
15,052 19.2%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
10,851 13.8
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
10,497 13.4
Brian Harrison
Republican
8,476 10.8
Shawn Lassiter
Democrat
6,964 8.9%
Total reported
78,374
AP/NYT has NOT called the race between Ellzey and Sanchez for 2nd place and a spot on the May 24th runoff ballot. So it must still be theoretically possible for her pass Ellzey. But I doubt it's gonna happen.
Also doubt, based on tonight's results, that Sanchez could beat Wright later this month. Feel the same way about Ellzey.
Wright 9,165
Ellzey 4,732
Sanchez 8,284
100%
Ellis
W 4,498
E 5,431
S 1,835
100%
Navarro
W 1,389
E 688
S 378
100%
I think there is a reasonable likelihood that Boris will step down after the country opens up again. Claim to be the PM who led the vaccine programme and start on the newly re-opened speech circuit making millions.
If he did so then the money spent on the Downing Street flat will turn out to be a collosal waste of money as I doubt it is to many others taste.
betting PostF1: with some reservations, I've backed Russell for points at 3.3. He qualified 11th on pace, he was just half a tenth off Q3, and he has tyre choice.
What happened last time makes this a little reluctant but nothing else leapt out at me.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/05/portugal-pre-race-2021.html
And, fixed the last line for you!
And, good morning one and all.
Shouldn’t there be a fairly significant caveat to that:
if the Brexit party voters had voted Tory
I can’t help but wonder how many Brexit party voters were those who felt unable to vote Tory, bearing in mind that we all knew the Faragista ego trip would win no seats while the larger the Tory majority, the easier Brexit would be.
Edit - we will of course get some indication of this in Hartlepool and Wales. If Brexit voters do head towards the Blues, Labour are toast in Hartlepool and face being wiped out outside the core Valleys; they will probably also lose Torfaen.
But I can’t see it happening.
Assuming he doesn’t bin it, take out one of the championship contenders in the car he wants to drive next season, get upset with everyone except himself and annoy all the bosses in the process.
Apparently, George flew back to England in the Mercedes bizjet after the race, I’m sure the pair of them had time for a relaxing chat about the situation!
Edit: just noticed Bottas is 5 to win on BF Ex, which is a little high for the man starting on pole!
That is said on the basis the Iraq War would have happened whether we took part or not.
I'd want more than 5/1 to back Labour by 2,000+ votes.
Con by 2k or less
Lab by 2k or less
Con by 2k or more
Anything else
We really are guessing so I'd want attractive odds that reflect that.
But he will find it pretty difficult if not impossible to become PM again.
I also don't think it's a given that those Brexit party voters all go Tory (or don't just stay home now Brexit is delivered).
I remember turning a corner in Westminster in about 1983, and bumped into an old couple, the lady helping a very fragile looking old man. He looked familiar, and sure enough it was the Wilsons.
Could someone please have a stern word with Scottish voters?
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1388747777031692290?s=20
On the other hand, does Boris want to get bogged down in the minutiae of post-Brexit trade, Scottish independence and Northern Ireland border issues? Boris has done, or at least announced, the fun stuff already. And he had to be leant on to run for a second term as Mayor.
Boris is not old. He will turn 57 in June. But that is already older than David Cameron and Tony Blair when they retired.
I do not expect Boris to contest the 2024 election. I should not be surprised if he steps down this year.
He regularly gets a bunch of twitchers wandering around his grave.
Wilson had early stage colon cancer and Alzheimer’s, but the main reason he left seems to have been he was fed up with the role and wanted to retire. He did not *have* to give up power at the time he did.
I have to say I think there is a difference there.
Covid: Quarantine for Covid contacts could be scrapped
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56958885
Admittedly, given they cause me to throw up I’d almost rather stay indoors for ten days than do a LFT every day, but given the inconvenience and expense of self isolating I can see why an alternative is needed.
I’m also hoping this won’t be for long, as once everyone’s been offered a vaccine there won’t be much need to worry about it spreading.
First from @bbclaurak on @BorisJohnson which includes this warning that sources on the “bodies” quote that Johnson denied at dispatch box could contradict him under oath.
And in the subject of perjury...1/2
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56624437 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1388755968092160000/photo/1
There’s a separate issue of pay being too high in many other public sector roles, which also needs to be addressed. Six-figure salaries need to come with a risk attached, or be paid relative to performance.
Have we all done our predictions on here for e Scottish elections yet? I still think SNP will fall short of a majority, but will be very tight.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ea684bbc-aa8f-11eb-acd8-e39d812fcf8b?shareToken=43ec488f85d872a9a7f0142180f8c1a1 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1388757719621029889/photo/1
Remember the Free School Meal/Foodbox row? One of the arguments, voiced a lot by generic newish Conservative MPs for Redwall North, was that people shouldn't have children they can't afford. It was OK for Boris's spunk to burst out everywhere, because he was paying his way.
That argument has lost a fair bit of its force after the last few days.
...Johnson’s aides are concerned that Cummings has stockpiled further damaging material to engineer the prime minister’s political demise.
Incendiary claims about Johnson’s reaction to the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox as polling day approached in the Brexit referendum in June 2016 are doing the rounds in Westminster.
According to those who have heard the story, Johnson was upset at the effect Cox’s death would have on him politically. Aides travelling with him that day say this is untrue and he was “very sombre”.
Senior Tories are also concerned that Johnson’s private thoughts about his cabinet and fellow MPs could be revealed.
A prominent Eurosceptic said: “That would undermine support in Westminster, and it’s MPs, not voters, who can get rid of him.” Under Conservative Party rules, about 55 Tory MPs would need to submit a letter to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee to force a vote of no confidence.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vengeful-dominic-cummings-wants-rishi-sunak-in-no-10-7kzbfcg7w
Little Englanders for the win...
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/1388605708887805954
For what is a pretty minor role, I cannot understand why he was worth that much. Even if he hadn’t been completely useless and a crook.
The new one is paid less, but it’s still £145,000 to start. Not far off what the PM earns for a far easier job.
Maybe the salary of a headteacher - which is a much more demanding role - would be applicable.
But even at that, we should be paying the Prime Minister more. FFS, do we really *want* somebody comparable to a provincial council clerk in the role?
In practice these voters have got No Deal in name only. We have signed a deal with the EU which doesn't work so badly that we have had to drop most of the requirements that let us run a border. So they should be angry about that - and might be had they not been told by their part of the media what an excellent Brexit we've had and how its all working perfectly.
What I have a problem with is a man who cannot be trusted - and ask Carrie about Shagger's affair with the [superinjunction] to ask if he can be trusted. Perhaps that is why we have had the transformation in their relationship. It is only after he betrayed her with the thing that cannot be mentioned that she has driven all this - the £200k flat refurb, the end of Cummings and his forthcoming revenge, the growing financial scandals.
If he discarded her and the child as he usually does. he wouldn't be in this much shit.
The PMs salary is 6 times Median income, with additional perks including free accommodation in Westminster, an annual decorating allowance beyond annual income (seemingly not taxed as a BIK) a stately home as a second home, plus MPs expenses. That seems pretty generous to me. The £150 000 is just pocket money.
Additionally, there is no problem with Ms Symmonds getting a job if she wants to decorate the flat at one go, rather than do a few rooms at a time.
That is not hard up, not by any stretch of the term, and it is right and proper that the PM has to watch his personal spending. After all the rest of us do.
Presumably the same friends of the PM who falsely accused Cummings of leaking stuff a couple of weeks ago, and dragged the former advisor’s name into the mud in the first place?
He might fancy making Colonel, like Philby did.
But here’s another question.
Do we want people of ability and experience in high profile roles outside government to decide the drop in their income means they can’t afford to be an MP or minister?
Edit. - not that I am especially exercised about Cummings’ fate or think he is a whistleblower.
Cost of redecoration of flat ~ 100k, paid for -- after a bit of fuss -- apparently by the PM. Cost to taxpayers -- zero. Total amount of postings on blogs and words in newspapers ~ billions.
Cost of mahossive Greensill Capital / Gupta corruption to taxpayers ~ up to 5 billion (source: Guardian). Total amount of postings on blogs and words in newspapers ~ at most a few hundred.
It is Filthy, Greedy Cameron who should be under the spotlight.
It is proof that most people are not actually interested in tackling serious fraud or corruption. They are only interested in using corruption as a party political stick.
Now that Cameron is no longer a front line politician -- and despite his behaviour being massively more expensive for the taxpayer -- no-one is very interested.
Ted Heath, Margaret Thatcher and, to a lesser extent, Theresa May were not. Cameron seems slightly at a loose end to me. Blair is an unusual one in that he's not in office but still acts as if he is.
I think there's a difference between losing to the electorate (which politicians can and do accept) and being kicked out by your own party.
He dismisses all the questions about his behaviour as a “whole farrago of nonsense”. This is what poker players would call a tell. Those familiar with his pathology will know that he often dials up the bluster when he has something to hide. The worse the misconduct he is trying to conceal, the rantier he tends to get.
He could clear it up today and save everyone a lot of time by showing when he paid the bill. There must be a reason he won’t do this and the reason must be an extremely compelling one given that he’d apparently prefer to endure days of rotten headlines in the run-up to this Thursday’s big set of elections rather than give us full disclosure.
There is a shoulder-shrugging view that none of this much matters. The cynical dismissiveness of many Tories is itself a symptom of the problem we have with integrity in public life.
This is a ridiculous nest of conflicts of interest. It becomes an absolutely ludicrous one when the prime minister himself is the subject of investigation. Even if Lord Geidt or Mr Case conclude that their boss has broken the rules and even if they are willing to say so, there is nothing but shame to prevent him from tossing aside their verdicts and declaring himself not guilty. And we know shame is a sensation that this prime minister is impervious to.
This is why it is so essential that properly independent investigators are on the case. That’s a court in which Boris Johnson can’t be his own judge and jury.
-Let’s find a donor
Cost of childcare?
-Let’s find a donor
Cost of personal trainer?
-Let’s find a donor
How Boris Johnson operates
- @thesundaytimes
- https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1388765839525097480
Has he ever actually had a proper job?
There's another cost to the taxpayer which I flagged up earlier on this week and the Sunday Times have picked up on now.
Boris Johnson was given a loan by the Tory Party, it needed declaring on tax returns as a benefit in kind and there's tax implications, it appears Boris Johnson didn't declare it on his tax return in January, so....