Let’s admit it: the Good Friday Agreement is incompatible with Brexit – politicalbetting.com

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Dura_Ace said:

Time_to_Leave said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Fishing said:

squareroot2 said:

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

It’s amazing how many people preaching socialism, have found themselves a way to make a good living from it [Sandpit is referring to capitalism]!

Is it? Through a mixture of hard work and sheer luck, I've had a very successful career in private industry, two self-employed businesses and a senior charity role. But I'd rather live in a society which paid me less and was more equal. In the absence of that, I live fairly modestly and give the rest away. What's the inconsistency? Do I need to fail in work in order to qualify to criticise the system?

In general, there are lots of people who are talented or fortunate enough to do well under any system, but who would like one with more equal outcomes, reflecting the degree of luck in making a success of life in financial terms.

I didn’t mean you Nick, who had a successful private sector career and then went into politics as an elected representative.

I was referring to the likes of Owen Jones, who seems to be earning close to ten grand a month from Patreon, writing polemic about how capitalism is awful and we need to smash up the system.

You're being somewhat unfair to Owen Jones. His Patreon channel offers exactly the same content to all subscribers, whether they pay £3 per month or £100. Socialism in action, I'd say. I'd guess most pay £3. And the income is not used to line his own pockets - it's used to hire staff and resources to produce videos, podcasts etc. I'm sure Jones has a healthy income from his journalism and his books, so I'd be astonished if he uses any of the Patreon subscriptions for personal gain.

Yes, all "tiers" get the same content. So it's 3 quid basically. Glad to see that. Very different to Lozza's offering. There the £100 per month "Top Fox" membership gets you all sorts of perks such as "dinner once a year" with the man himself. How about that eh? Dinner with Laurence Fox once a year. Just imagine the suspense as that day approaches and finally dawns. Making a list of things to talk about. The agonizing over what to wear. Just the whole sense of occasion.

No, Owen is a good guy. The reason people hate him is that he's articulate and effective. Plus his youthful look and motormouth vibe turns some off. But I like him. And if you read/view the actual output you find it's nothing like the crazed lefty of caricature.

For someone who is a "nice guy" he posts some pretty nasty stuff.

He makes money telling woke Guardianistas what they want to hear. Fair enough. It's a good business model, and even an honourable one if he believes most of what he says. But it's not a good model for winning elections in Milton Keynes or wherever.

We won't win an election if we put the left in charge. And we won't have a platform worth winning on if we ignore the left. That's how I view things in Labour atm.

A very effective Labour leader would be able to put a modernising and moderate message in a way that resonates with the Left. It's about the story you tell and how you link it with policy to the challenges of the future.

Alas, I can't see Starmer doing a Kinnock. Yet alone a Blair.

I'm giving SKS another year before I decide whether he can or he can't make the next GE competitive. We'll have had enough post pandemic, post Brexit time by then for me to judge him.

I think the State Opening in a few weeks will tell us a lot. It will show what the Government thinks it has to offer, and how much it’s likely to feel like a financially constrained fag end administration.

It's delusional to think any Johnson helmed government is going to think or act in financially constrained way.

It is rather unlikely. But if we're lucky something external will occur (eg market malfunction) and the roof will fall in.

Really? You want the roof to fall in on UK plc? Where were you planning to live next?

In this green & pleasant land, detoxed from Johnson. Going misty-eyed just at the thought.

The prospect of watching Johnson soldier on enervated by long covid, years of dealing with Carrie Antoinette's shit and being propped up by Poots makes me think a hung parliament with tories as the largest party is the optimum comedic outcome for the next GE.

MattW said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

It’s amazing how many people preaching socialism, have found themselves a way to make a good living from it [Sandpit is referring to capitalism]!

Is it? Through a mixture of hard work and sheer luck, I've had a very successful career in private industry, two self-employed businesses and a senior charity role. But I'd rather live in a society which paid me less and was more equal. In the absence of that, I live fairly modestly and give the rest away. What's the inconsistency? Do I need to fail in work in order to qualify to criticise the system?

In general, there are lots of people who are talented or fortunate enough to do well under any system, but who would like one with more equal outcomes, reflecting the degree of luck in making a success of life in financial terms.

I didn’t mean you Nick, who had a successful private sector career and then went into politics as an elected representative.

I was referring to the likes of Owen Jones, who seems to be earning close to ten grand a month from Patreon, writing polemic about how capitalism is awful and we need to smash up the system.

Hardly a shattering sum. And what do you want him to do? Either stop knocking capitalism or stop earning decent money?

Not sure which sub-thread to answer on, so I'll try this one .

Personally I think Owen Jones is a bit of an oaf, though that's not the key issue here.

I think the problems with being a wealthy person who preaches a variety of socialism are twofold: verisimilitude and losing the link between the theory and experience so you cannot speak without seeming like a performing seal.

For Jones, he will be bringing in a far larger income than he needs which (without some setup to show it is untrue) says that his practice does not underpin his belief in redistribution.

More problematically, if he is living a semi-celeb life on 4 or 10 times the average income, he will lose the practical experience to speak for the 'poor' and 'oppressed' he would claim to represent. He will need to get that from somewhere or he will lose a sense of what 'ordinary' is. "I lived on a Council Estate 25 years ago" will not cut the mustard.

He will have a platform, but he will be addressing people like himself rather than people he wants to speak for.

I think that Michael Meacher is *perhaps* one example of what happens - an alleged far (ish) left old Lab type preaching against evil landlords, whilst having his own multimillion string of rental property. It doesn't ring true. I could make a similar point about Benn - living in a huge house for decades, whilst talking about housing shortages, which he could have met himself by converting parts of it to flats.

I'm impressed by @NickPalmer because he has what I would call a Rule of Life, or Discipline, to help causes, and equally importantly to keep himself honest.

If someone is having a lecture about green things, my normal test is to ask them the Energy Efficiency of their own house. If they don't know or if it is not as good as it can be, that is a flag that they don't really believe what they claim; if they did, they would have done something about it.

I like to hold people who wish to tell everybody else what to do to a higher standard than those who do not seek to interfere.

Now out in the sun for a bit.

I don't accept the premise. There's no obligation to avoid material success in life in order to protect one's left wing credentials. There's also no obligation to be a better person than those who hold more right wing political views. By and large we on the left are better people, but there are plenty of exceptions to that rule.

And for heaven's sake, "Left" does NOT equate to "telling people what to do". It just doesn't, Matt.

Wear a hat if you're going to sit in the sun.

kinabalu said:

MattW said:

kinabalu said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

It’s amazing how many people preaching socialism, have found themselves a way to make a good living from it [Sandpit is referring to capitalism]!

Is it? Through a mixture of hard work and sheer luck, I've had a very successful career in private industry, two self-employed businesses and a senior charity role. But I'd rather live in a society which paid me less and was more equal. In the absence of that, I live fairly modestly and give the rest away. What's the inconsistency? Do I need to fail in work in order to qualify to criticise the system?

In general, there are lots of people who are talented or fortunate enough to do well under any system, but who would like one with more equal outcomes, reflecting the degree of luck in making a success of life in financial terms.

I didn’t mean you Nick, who had a successful private sector career and then went into politics as an elected representative.

I was referring to the likes of Owen Jones, who seems to be earning close to ten grand a month from Patreon, writing polemic about how capitalism is awful and we need to smash up the system.

Hardly a shattering sum. And what do you want him to do? Either stop knocking capitalism or stop earning decent money?

Not sure which sub-thread to answer on, so I'll try this one .

Personally I think Owen Jones is a bit of an oaf, though that's not the key issue here.

I think the problems with being a wealthy person who preaches a variety of socialism are twofold: verisimilitude and losing the link between the theory and experience so you cannot speak without seeming like a performing seal.

For Jones, he will be bringing in a far larger income than he needs which (without some setup to show it is untrue) says that his practice does not underpin his belief in redistribution.

More problematically, if he is living a semi-celeb life on 4 or 10 times the average income, he will lose the practical experience to speak for the 'poor' and 'oppressed' he would claim to represent. He will need to get that from somewhere or he will lose a sense of what 'ordinary' is. "I lived on a Council Estate 25 years ago" will not cut the mustard.

He will have a platform, but he will be addressing people like himself rather than people he wants to speak for.

I think that Michael Meacher is *perhaps* one example of what happens - an alleged far (ish) left old Lab type preaching against evil landlords, whilst having his own multimillion string of rental property. It doesn't ring true. I could make a similar point about Benn - living in a huge house for decades, whilst talking about housing shortages, which he could have met himself by converting parts of it to flats.

I'm impressed by @NickPalmer because he has what I would call a Rule of Life, or Discipline, to help causes, and equally importantly to keep himself honest.

If someone is having a lecture about green things, my normal test is to ask them the Energy Efficiency of their own house. If they don't know or if it is not as good as it can be, that is a flag that they don't really believe what they claim; if they did, they would have done something about it.

I like to hold people who wish to tell everybody else what to do to a higher standard than those who do not seek to interfere.

Now out in the sun for a bit.

I don't accept the premise. There's no obligation to avoid material success in life in order to protect one's left wing credentials. There's also no obligation to be a better person than those who hold different political views.

There isn't, unless someone seeks to present themselves as morally better than their opponents. Which people often do, on left and right.

I do agree that someone doing materially well does not, in itself, mean they cannot support and promote certain political viewpoints, but I do think there are likely to be specific policies where it can be relevant - if someone wants to abolish private schools, its mildly hypocritical if they send their sprog to one, but if they also morally posture about private schools in addition to thinking, on balance for society as a whole, that they should be abolished, it adds an extra element of hypocrisy, with a moral twist.

So it can be a fair critique, but is often pulled out too soon.

kle4 said:

Quincel said:

kle4 said:

Quincel said:

Finally, some politicians with nothing to hide.

That picture on the second must be public domain or something, I recall seeing it in an episode of Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Season 5 Episode 7. They aren't nude, they're wearing jeans. So even this party has something to hide (or the show photoshopped jeans on).

Dear lord, you are quite right!

https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/two-naked-seniors-laughing-fighting-fun-108520625

It isn't only useless political minutae I retain.

The plot thickens though - the image from the episode I watched seems to have different coloured trousers/jeans, so either its a lighting issue or they adjusted the stock image for some reason, or there's several versions.

I am fully aware there is a resident expert for any and all topics on PB.
Although to encounter one on "the origins of photographs of shirtless homoerotic wrestling OAP's" nevertheless had the power to surprise.

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

dixiedean said:

stodge said:

Just to say the final "polls" (those conducted after the legal ban) continue to suggest a huge win for the Popular Party in the Madrilenian (that's the term) regional election tomorrow.

Looks like a 13% swing from PSOE to PP which wouldn't be of any significance in East Ham Central but in Madrid it's going to mean, just as happened in the UK in 2015, the "junior partner" in the regional government, Citizens, are going to be swept away with the PP picking up most of their votes and seats.

The PP leader basically threw the Citizens out of the Coalition (why didn't that nice Mr Cameron do that, some may ask?) and called a snap election.

Mas Madrid (a regional split from Podemos) are going to do well enough to be a strong third with VOX and UP little changed. Their combined vote with PSOE will be about the same as PP but the only result I can see is a re-elected PP Government.

PP looking likely to get around 60 seats. With 69 needed for a majority.
Any speculation on who they will turn to for partners now they have brutally done away with C's?

I think the question is how close does PP want to get to VOX? For a while, Casado faced being outflanked on the liberal side by Citizens and on his right by VOX. With Cs smashed in 2019, the main challenger on his flank is VOX. The latest poll shows PP up three from the last Cortes election, VOX up two and PSOE down one. Currently, PSOE and UP have 155 seats and PP/VOX have 141. The latest polls would reverse that and offer the possibility of PP/VOX being close to a majority.

O/T but any business in the UK feeling hard done by for any Covid fines should think themselves lucky..... £350,000 fine for Jersey hotel for Covid breach!

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2021/05/01/hotel-fined-350k-for-covid-breach/

felix said:

Mexicanpete said:

another_richard said:

Re Northern Ireland.

I notice all the 'empty supermarket shelves' stories have stopped.

Empty shelves of cement at the builders merchants here in South Wales throughout this week. I got some yesterday from a local builders merchants but none there today, or at Travis Perkins or Wickes (as a last resort) today. UK wide shortage, or so I am told. Covid or Brexit, I wonder which?

I suspect there is no concrete answer right now.............

My foundations like Johnsonian economics will thus be made almost entirely out of sand.

My sources are reporting plenty of cement at M. Bricolage.

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

justin124 said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

I suspect that view is rather out of date. Back in the days when voters had to qualify for postal votes via a doctor's signature or on occupational grounds , the Tories usually did outperform in this group. However, since the use of a PV became simply a personal option requiring no qualification, party advantage has tended to be largely determined by levels of local party activism. In Hartlepool , I see no reason why that should favour the Tories - though the seat is not the Labour citadel which many seem to assume.

Tory citadel now. If the party of Hard Leave can't win in the capital of Hard leave, Starmer can start measuring up for curtains and thinking about how best to change the wallpaper.

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Dura_Ace said:

Time_to_Leave said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Fishing said:

squareroot2 said:

kinabalu said:

Northern_Al said:

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

It’s amazing how many people preaching socialism, have found themselves a way to make a good living from it [Sandpit is referring to capitalism]!

Is it? Through a mixture of hard work and sheer luck, I've had a very successful career in private industry, two self-employed businesses and a senior charity role. But I'd rather live in a society which paid me less and was more equal. In the absence of that, I live fairly modestly and give the rest away. What's the inconsistency? Do I need to fail in work in order to qualify to criticise the system?

In general, there are lots of people who are talented or fortunate enough to do well under any system, but who would like one with more equal outcomes, reflecting the degree of luck in making a success of life in financial terms.

I didn’t mean you Nick, who had a successful private sector career and then went into politics as an elected representative.

I was referring to the likes of Owen Jones, who seems to be earning close to ten grand a month from Patreon, writing polemic about how capitalism is awful and we need to smash up the system.

You're being somewhat unfair to Owen Jones. His Patreon channel offers exactly the same content to all subscribers, whether they pay £3 per month or £100. Socialism in action, I'd say. I'd guess most pay £3. And the income is not used to line his own pockets - it's used to hire staff and resources to produce videos, podcasts etc. I'm sure Jones has a healthy income from his journalism and his books, so I'd be astonished if he uses any of the Patreon subscriptions for personal gain.

Yes, all "tiers" get the same content. So it's 3 quid basically. Glad to see that. Very different to Lozza's offering. There the £100 per month "Top Fox" membership gets you all sorts of perks such as "dinner once a year" with the man himself. How about that eh? Dinner with Laurence Fox once a year. Just imagine the suspense as that day approaches and finally dawns. Making a list of things to talk about. The agonizing over what to wear. Just the whole sense of occasion.

No, Owen is a good guy. The reason people hate him is that he's articulate and effective. Plus his youthful look and motormouth vibe turns some off. But I like him. And if you read/view the actual output you find it's nothing like the crazed lefty of caricature.

For someone who is a "nice guy" he posts some pretty nasty stuff.

He makes money telling woke Guardianistas what they want to hear. Fair enough. It's a good business model, and even an honourable one if he believes most of what he says. But it's not a good model for winning elections in Milton Keynes or wherever.

We won't win an election if we put the left in charge. And we won't have a platform worth winning on if we ignore the left. That's how I view things in Labour atm.

A very effective Labour leader would be able to put a modernising and moderate message in a way that resonates with the Left. It's about the story you tell and how you link it with policy to the challenges of the future.

Alas, I can't see Starmer doing a Kinnock. Yet alone a Blair.

I'm giving SKS another year before I decide whether he can or he can't make the next GE competitive. We'll have had enough post pandemic, post Brexit time by then for me to judge him.

I think the State Opening in a few weeks will tell us a lot. It will show what the Government thinks it has to offer, and how much it’s likely to feel like a financially constrained fag end administration.

It's delusional to think any Johnson helmed government is going to think or act in financially constrained way.

It is rather unlikely. But if we're lucky something external will occur (eg market malfunction) and the roof will fall in.

Sort of like Covid19?

You want to go through something like this again? You're wishing for that?

NFW.

NickPalmer said:

Northern Al's experience of aggressive policing in NI is interesting. Without getting into the intracies of Israeli politics, I get the impression that life on the West Bank is rather similar. I don't underestimate how nerve-wracking it is to police an area with people who'd like to kill you, but in the long run, it's unwise to give people the impression of a default assumption that they're enemies, since they may come to decide that perhaps they are.

It was the Monkey not the Al, Nick.

Yes, Israel knows a fair amount about aggressive policing.

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's even close.

The UK's 2nd doses are more or less baked in till the end of July now

northern_monkey said:

This 43 year old has just had his first jab. Astra Zeneca. Feels good to get it in my arm!

Great news. Was it busy at the vaccination centre?

"@HugoGye
525,316 new vaccinations registered in England & Scotland yesterday (can't find update numbers for the others)

England 115, 366 1st doses / 361,758 2nd doses
Scotland 9,191 / 39,001"

@Leon
On the smash in London today, wearing a thermal vest. Am roasting.

felix said:

kinabalu said:

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's even close.

I remain of the view I stated right at the start - narrow Labour hold on a low turnout. Hoping to be proven wrong!

Yes, I've got you down for that. So it's a whole load of "hoping to be wrong" going on.

kinabalu said:

felix said:

kinabalu said:

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's even close.

I remain of the view I stated right at the start - narrow Labour hold on a low turnout. Hoping to be proven wrong!

Yes, I've got you down for that. So it's a whole load of "hoping to be wrong" going on.

I'm a member of the "narrow Labour hold on low turn out" camp.

I'm on at 2.6 on BF.

rottenborough said:

kinabalu said:

felix said:

kinabalu said:

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's even close.

I remain of the view I stated right at the start - narrow Labour hold on a low turnout. Hoping to be proven wrong!

Yes, I've got you down for that. So it's a whole load of "hoping to be wrong" going on.

I'm a member of the "narrow Labour hold on low turn out" camp.

I'm on at 2.6 on BF.

It's a loser imo - but well done for not going in early at evens.

Mexicanpete said:

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

Politics tends to be cyclical.

I knew plenty of "only ever voted Tory" voters who voted Blair/ Labour in 1997 and again in 2001. They haven't done so since, and I would wager that could happen with Johnson's red wall too. 2024 might be too early for the buyer's remorse, but events dear boy.

A relevant question is of course "How did you vote last time?" Someone who was fed up with Labour in 2019 is already factored in.

Mexicanpete said:

kinabalu said:

felix said:

kinabalu said:

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's even close.

I remain of the view I stated right at the start - narrow Labour hold on a low turnout. Hoping to be proven wrong!

Yes, I've got you down for that. So it's a whole load of "hoping to be wrong" going on.

I'm with you, a comfortable Copeland-style steal. In itself that doesn't worry me for 2024. More likely a hangover result from Corbyn/Brexit and a vaccine rollout bounce.

Yes, I think so. It's too early to worry. I have an appointment with "fret" fixed for this time next year which I'm hoping to be able to cancel.

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

kinabalu said:

felix said:

kinabalu said:

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's even close.

I remain of the view I stated right at the start - narrow Labour hold on a low turnout. Hoping to be proven wrong!

Yes, I've got you down for that. So it's a whole load of "hoping to be wrong" going on.

I'm a member of the "narrow Labour hold on low turn out" camp.

I'm on at 2.6 on BF.

It's a loser imo - but well done for not going in early at evens.

I did have a first wee nibble at near evens at the start to be honest, but topped up at 2.6 the other day.

President Michel idiocy aside, I do find it surprising that the UK is still outperforming the EU in terms of per capita jabs in arms per day. Surely, by now, resolved supply issues should have closed that gap.

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1385215598657949698/photo/1

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:

Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
59m
Hearing track and trace staff are not having contracts renewed for after May 16, a sure sign that the authorities think it will be basically over. Hallelujah!

Good news. Will mask wearing also be coming to an end soon?

It will move from mandatory to optional.

rottenborough said:

Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
59m
Hearing track and trace staff are not having contracts renewed for after May 16, a sure sign that the authorities think it will be basically over. Hallelujah!

Yes, all over soon in the UK.

TimT said:

President Michel idiocy aside, I do find it surprising that the UK is still outperforming the EU in terms of per capita jabs in arms per day. Surely, by now, resolved supply issues should have closed that gap.

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1385215598657949698/photo/1

Some of the EU are doing more per capita a day now. I expect now the supply issues are resolved we will see which of them have good sets up for fast rollout (eg Germany and France I presume) and which do not, whereas before supply meant more were the same.

kle4 said:

TimT said:

President Michel idiocy aside, I do find it surprising that the UK is still outperforming the EU in terms of per capita jabs in arms per day. Surely, by now, resolved supply issues should have closed that gap.

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1385215598657949698/photo/1

Some of the EU are doing more per capita a day now. I expect now the supply issues are resolved we will see which of them have good sets up for fast rollout (eg Germany and France I presume) and which do not, whereas before supply meant more were the same.

Germany and Spain have increased a lot in the last week, but it's still patchy across the EU.

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
59m
Hearing track and trace staff are not having contracts renewed for after May 16, a sure sign that the authorities think it will be basically over. Hallelujah!

Yes, all over soon in the UK.

until the Autumn when all the new 18 yr olds got to University.

justin124 said:

Mexicanpete said:

kinabalu said:

felix said:

kinabalu said:

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's even close.

I remain of the view I stated right at the start - narrow Labour hold on a low turnout. Hoping to be proven wrong!

Yes, I've got you down for that. So it's a whole load of "hoping to be wrong" going on.

I'm with you, a comfortable Copeland-style steal. In itself that doesn't worry me for 2024. More likely a hangover result from Corbyn/Brexit and a vaccine rollout bounce.

If you prove to be correct, Starmer can reasonably be criticised for holding the by election at this time - when it could have been deferred until October/November by which time Johnson's Vaccine Bounce will likely have dissipated. Effectively it will be a self-inflicted wound.

Yes

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:

Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
59m
Hearing track and trace staff are not having contracts renewed for after May 16, a sure sign that the authorities think it will be basically over. Hallelujah!

Good news. Will mask wearing also be coming to an end soon?

It will move from mandatory to optional.

And some people will pretend that means we are not back to normal, even though it will be an individual's choice.

Yes. The "angsters" - never has so much perspective been lost by so many over so little.

But I mustn't come over as too much of a Wise Old Owl. It annoys people.

TEXAS 6th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION MAY 1, 2021

Today is Special Election Day in Texas CD06, located in the sprawling suburbs & exurbs south of Dallas. It's GOP turf that's been trending Democratic, but hasn't got there yet, leastways as of last November.

Special election called due to death of incumbent Republican congressman due to COVID. His wife, endorsed by Trumpsky, is among two dozen hopefuls in the race. Under Lone Star State law, the top candidate MAY be elected outright IF she or he gets a majority of the total votes cast today. However, much more likely that no one will get 50% + 1, which will trigger a runoff between the two two vote-getters (regardless of party) on May 24.

Have NOT been following the details of this race, beyond major headlines, such as Trumpsky's endorsement of the widow, Susan Wright, and the (typically) vicious and (also typically) anonymous and illegal robocalls accusing her of murdering her husband so she can take his seat in Congress. In other words, typical Republican scumbag tactics as are used by some scumbag Republicans somewhere (esp. the South) just about every election cycle.

Polls close at 7pm tonight Central Daylight Time, which is 1am BST for you PB nightowls.

And here is link to Texas Tribune website, which will post live results:

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/05/01/texas-6th-congressional-election-results/

From TxTrib - "Two big questions loom in the race: Will any Democrats make the runoff in the longtime GOP-held seat? And what impact will Donald Trump’s late endorsement have?"

"Democrats targeted the district in 2020, but fell far short. Wright won reelection to the seat by 9 percentage points. But the district has been trending blue in statewide results, going from a district that Mitt Romney won by 17 points in 2012 to one that Trump carried by 12 points in 2016 — and just 3 in 2020."

My own guess (but just a guess!) is that a Democrat will make the top two, simply because the Republican field is so balkanized. And am also thinking that the widow will also make the cut, partly thanks to You-Know-Who, but mainly because she was in poll position anyway (again thanks to choped-up GOP vote) which is why I reckon the smarter among Trumpsky's half-brains trust persuaded him to back her.

BUT we shall see just how the cookie crumbles tonight!

rottenborough said:

Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
59m
Hearing track and trace staff are not having contracts renewed for after May 16, a sure sign that the authorities think it will be basically over. Hallelujah!

If that is true that is very encouraging indeed. Points to June 21 being more of a freedom day than I'd thought.

felix said:

justin124 said:

NickPalmer said:

justin124 said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

I suspect that view is rather out of date. Back in the days when voters had to qualify for postal votes via a doctor's signature or on occupational grounds , the Tories usually did outperform in this group. However, since the use of a PV became simply a personal option requiring no qualification, party advantage has tended to be largely determined by levels of local party activism. In Hartlepool , I see no reason why that should favour the Tories - though the seat is not the Labour citadel which many seem to assume.

My experience from counts is that it's still true - the PVs still favour the Tories even in seats where there are more Labour activists. It's less true for the reasons you say, but still a factor. My guess is that people with settled residence in one place tend to ask for PVs more than young people who change relatively often for work, love or other reasons. Registration in the first place tends to have a similar bias.

I saw no evidence of that at the Norwich North bye election in July 2009 at which I worked for Craig Murray as an Independent. I attended several sessions of the verification of postal votes , and based on that it was pretty easy to see a pattern emerging. From my own Tallying I was able to produce a very accurate forecast of the final outcome - including - contrary to widespread expectations - that UKIP would outpoll the Greens there.
I can also recall the Brecon & Radnor by election back in July 1985. Vincent Hanna's BBC team conducted an Exit poll as voters left the polling stations - and predicted a Liberal majority of circa 2,000. The Liberal majority turned out to be barely 500 - apparently because Labour had won the postal votes!

I suspect that preconceptions about postal voting may well not apply this time - the pandemic has probably boosted the PV tally well beyond the norm. I have no ideas if that favours one side or the other but it certainly is unlikely to be a typical election. Do we even know what the proportion of PVs are?

It was 11,300 issued last time, from an electorate of 70,000. 9,500 (84%!) out of 41,000 (57% turnout) actually voted (https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/postal_ballot_counts_11#incoming-1512683). Seems reasonable to assume that 15,000 were issued this time and maybde 10,000+ will vote. So on a lowish turnout, the PVs will very likely be pretty decisive.

Daveyboy1961 said:

kinabalu said:

rottenborough said:

Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
·
59m
Hearing track and trace staff are not having contracts renewed for after May 16, a sure sign that the authorities think it will be basically over. Hallelujah!

Yes, all over soon in the UK.

until the Autumn when all the new 18 yr olds got to University.

If the vaccines are working for everyone else, then even a big outbreak among new students would barely register. It would just top up our level of herd immunity.

Mexicanpete said:

moonshine said:

Mexicanpete said:

Floater said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

justin124 said:

A suggestion on the Vote UK forum that early PVs in Hartlepool have been good for the Tories.

Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

Good might mean better than expected.

In northern England postal is pretty widespread as a result of Labour's attempt to rig the 2004 European elections.

Listened to a Telegraph podcast about Hartlepool.

Reminded me of pre 2019 election - person after person saying their Labour voting days are gone

Politics tends to be cyclical.

I knew plenty of "only ever voted Tory" voters who voted Blair/ Labour in 1997 and again in 2001. They haven't done so since, and I would wager that could happen with Johnson's red wall too. 2024 might be too early for the buyer's remorse, but events dear boy.

Politics is all about branding and self image though isn’t. TB’s genius was putting the New in Labour and hijacking the Union Jack elements of Cool Britannia.

Boris achieved much the same with his subliminal rebrand as the patriotic Party of Brexit, underlined by evicting wet blanket emrassed to be British types like Hammond and Grieve. It was far far more electorally effective than Cammo’s green tree.

Says to me one of two things has to happen. The Tories somehow lose the tag as the party that patriots feel most association with - not gonna happen with Starmer there. Or, Labour need to rebrand themselves to capture whatever the next zeitgeist will be. Some sort of post unionist patriotism perhaps, who knows.

You are reading too much into this. Blair, it is true had a positive vision, which Starmer has not, but then neither has Johnson. Cameron almost got over the line in 2020 by exclusively negative campaigning, and the Government were already unpopular for the bank bailout

Labour can follow the line that the current incumbents are dreadful, so vote for us, and as Starmer doesn't scare the horses it will work in time. But to an extent you are right, any opposition hungry for government should promote a positive platform as Blair (and to a lesser extent Thatcher (aspirational council house purchasing) did in 1979) did for 1997.

Otherwise, yes, an opposition just has to wait for the government to sooner or later fall over, which it undoubtedly will. The question is when?

And although I know you aren't a fan (to put it mildly) Jez got something positive rolling at GE17. Yes, he benefited from bad May and Remainer tactical voting, but there was an energizing offer too.

Mexicanpete said:

Quincel said:

Got a Lib Dem leaflet through the door which says 'Labour's vote slumped in this ward in 2019, while the Lib Dems vote rose 6.9% because we work all year round!"

Labour won the ward with over 60% of the vote in 2019. The Lib Dems vote rose 6.9%...to less than 10%.

The LD's use of spurious statistics does make me chuckle.

We have a local case in Godalming where the LibDems had a private deal with Labour to each stand down in one division in the town. The LDs reneged on the deal and stood in both (to be fair their current leader disagreed but was overruled by his activists), and are now adding insult to injury with bar charts "showing" that Labour can't win because they didn't get many votes here last time...

NickPalmer said:

Mexicanpete said:

Quincel said:

Got a Lib Dem leaflet through the door which says 'Labour's vote slumped in this ward in 2019, while the Lib Dems vote rose 6.9% because we work all year round!"

Labour won the ward with over 60% of the vote in 2019. The Lib Dems vote rose 6.9%...to less than 10%.

The LD's use of spurious statistics does make me chuckle.

We have a local case in Godalming where the LibDems had a private deal with Labour to each stand down in one division in the town. The LDs reneged on the deal and stood in both (to be fair their current leader disagreed but was overruled by his activists), and are now adding insult to injury with bar charts "showing" that Labour can't win because they didn't get many votes here last time...

If you want to unite Tories and Labour supporters, get them to talk about the duplicity of the Lb-Dems...

So, how do we think Keir's latest publicity shot will go down in the Red Wall?

https://twitter.com/StreamOfIceberg/status/1388482592245231616?s=20

Northern Ireland voted to Remain in the EU in 2016.

Far fewer people voted for the DUP in 2019.

Casino_Royale said:

So, how do we think Keir's latest publicity shot will go down in the Red Wall?

https://twitter.com/StreamOfIceberg/status/1388482592245231616?s=20

That's excruciating to watch - my old dad could take him and he's 84 with Alzheimer's.

Mexicanpete said:

Quincel said:

Got a Lib Dem leaflet through the door which says 'Labour's vote slumped in this ward in 2019, while the Lib Dems vote rose 6.9% because we work all year round!"

Labour won the ward with over 60% of the vote in 2019. The Lib Dems vote rose 6.9%...to less than 10%.

The LD's use of spurious statistics does make me chuckle.

It as though they have a genuine statistician gone rogue who is enjoying creating the greatest abuses of statistics that they can.

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

So, how do we think Keir's latest publicity shot will go down in the Red Wall?

https://twitter.com/StreamOfIceberg/status/1388482592245231616?s=20

He's a lover not a fighter.

He'd better be a master swordsman between the sheets to make up for that.

THIS THREAD HAS BEEN KNOCKED OUT.

Time_to_Leave said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

So, how do we think Keir's latest publicity shot will go down in the Red Wall?

https://twitter.com/StreamOfIceberg/status/1388482592245231616?s=20

He's a lover not a fighter.

Who the hell is doing these things to him? He’s a hair’s breadth from getting a log flume in a baseball cap like Hague.

Do not do Boris stunts Starmer, they won’t work for you. Be the serious man in a suit and there to pick up the pieces when the Boris act runs out of support.

I agree. I do a spot of boxing myself and it needs more oomph than that. I pretend the bag is Eric Trump and it works a treat. Boom boom boom. Biff biff biff.