Football fans appear markedly more enthusiastic about Boris and Keir than the public at large – politicalbetting.com
One of the reasons why Opinium is my favourite poster is because of the extensive way the firm presents its data and allows you to look at responses to one question and how it affected other responses.
This time into failings at Greater Manchester Police, the police force which managed to lose 80,000 crimes in one year. This raises questions not just about the police force but also about political oversight which is the responsibility of the Mayor.
I blame "H". The OCG have the fingers into everything.
To borrow a phrase, the problem with the police may not be a few bad apples, the problem may be with the orchard.
LD voters are the poshest nowadays and probably least interested in football, so no surprise they are not great fans of the Tory or Labour leaders and particularly not fans of Boris.
Boris probably has the most appeal of any Tory leader to working class voters ever however, so no surprise he goes down well with football fans
My surprise from looking at this is how similar the scores are. Only significant difference seems to be that those who don't support a team are more negative to Boris.
Isn't the takeaway that football fans think of Boris and Keir in almost the same way. Perhaps they just care far more about football than politics!
This time into failings at Greater Manchester Police, the police force which managed to lose 80,000 crimes in one year. This raises questions not just about the police force but also about political oversight which is the responsibility of the Mayor.
I blame "H". The OCG have the fingers into everything.
To borrow a phrase, the problem with the police may not be a few bad apples, the problem may be with the orchard.
French vaccine producer Valneva announced it is "deprioritizing" negotiations with the European Commission after more than six months of talks have yielded no results.
"We’ve committed significant time and effort to try to meet the needs of the central EC [European Commission] procurement process," Valneva CEO Thomas Lingelbach wrote in a press release late Tuesday. "Despite our recent clinical data, we have not made meaningful progress and have not yet secured a supply agreement."
The company said it instead would shift to negotiations with individual EU countries and interested nations outside the EU.
Don't read too much into this. Thanks to BioNTech's incredible progress and rock solid supply chain the EU's vaccine supply is now really solid already, and especially so by the time Valneva would be ready to ship any vaccines to the EU.\
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It's stupid because the Standard Life brand is much stronger than Aberdeen. The former has a lot of global recognition in investments, Aberdeen is a regional bit player. It's legitimately brand suicide.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
India has had a number of mass gatherings since the start of the year. As in massive, country wide, gatherings.
The perfect opportunity for a series of super-super-super spreader events.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
The Indian variant is probably more transmissive just like the Kent one and in India there is no such thing as social distancing.
The majority of the population have no interest in football unless we are in the last stages of the World Cup and no interest in politics except at General Election time (and not much even then). Both groups have specific and peculiar features and a lot of overlap.
The majority would say, suppose they ever thought about it, that both politics and football geeks should get a life. This view is unlikely to take off on PLTCLBTTNG but that doesn't mean that any of its contributors are sane or normal
The UK has done 38 million does, and a lot of those are Pfizer, so I think we can say AZ are still not on track. But the relaxed attitude to winter lockdowns would have made a lot more sense if there was an assumption of simply huge quantities of vaccine on the way.
The EU and USA both need to send & redirect Astra to Covax/Brazil/India they won't use. Now. We're in a slightly different position as we have a largish pent up demand for second doses which isn't the case over the channel or particularly in the USA.
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
It raises questions for the Post Office's auditors too. If they really thought there was all this fraud going on, how come it had not been picked up before? And why did the auditors not notice anything wrong with what Horizon was showing?
LD voters are the poshest nowadays and probably least interested in football, so no surprise they are not great fans of the Tory or Labour leaders and particularly not fans of Boris.
Boris probably has the most appeal of any Tory leader to working class voters ever however, so no surprise he goes down well with football fans
The EU and USA both need to send & redirect Astra to Covax/Brazil/India they won't use. Now. We're in a slightly different position as we have a largish pent up demand for second doses which isn't the case over the channel or particularly in the USA.
J&J too, IMO as it's also going to get little to no use in the west.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
The Indian variant is probably more transmissive just like the Kent one and in India there is no such thing as social distancing.
Thailand is experiencing a sudden enormous surge in cases (relative to their previous excellent record)
Reminds me of Grindr for some reason. Going for the same vibe?
Maybe a name redolent of Scottish puritan granite like steadfast reliable fiscally sound boringness no longer commands credibility. What about GallowaySalmond (or GllwySlmnd) as a more reliable sounding name. Probably some firm of legal ambulance chasers has already thought of it.
LD voters are the poshest nowadays and probably least interested in football, so no surprise they are not great fans of the Tory or Labour leaders and particularly not fans of Boris.
Boris probably has the most appeal of any Tory leader to working class voters ever however, so no surprise he goes down well with football fans
Yes, the Johnson rating is no surprise. WWC Leave has a disproportionate presence amongst football fans. But I don't get why Starmer is loved by footy. Good sign that he is though. Very heartening for a Labour supporter (me) who whilst far from writing him off is getting a little twitchy at the stubborn Tory lead in the polls.
He has a keen interest in cinematography and is studying it
He said he was going to put a bet on the Oscars last night on an outsider -
I talked him into saving his cash
He listened
If he had made the bet he would have made a tasty profit.
Oh well, I’m sure he’ll have plenty more opportunities to not listen to his parents!
Quote of the day, about the Oscars: https://twitter.com/marknorm/status/1386370385424261121 “The Oscars now feel like Halloween - I don’t care as much as I used to, people get all dressed up and it’s a huge night for pedophiles.”
“Asia Today: Thailand’s health authorities have confirmed 2,070 new COVID-19 cases, a daily record that brings the country’s total above 50,000. The rising numbers are severely straining the supply of hospital beds and ICU capacity.”
The virus is maybe about to run rampant, right across Asia
I'd be interested in those charts further split by age and sex (probably not the sample size to do it).
Men more interested in football and more interested in politics (are either of those true, now?). Of course, it's net approval, but it you're not interested in/have a dim view of politics/politiicians then you're maybe more likely to have a negative view of the leaders.
Older people more interested in football* and [ditto]
*Afterall, the ESL was needed because youngsters don't care any more, no?
The UK has done 38 million does, and a lot of those are Pfizer, so I think we can say AZ are still not on track. But the relaxed attitude to winter lockdowns would have made a lot more sense if there was an assumption of simply huge quantities of vaccine on the way.
The UK is up to 46m done, but yes it seems unlikely that AZ will deliver all 100m by the end of June. We're not going to have any major issues because Novavax and Moderna will make up for the supply shortfalls (and aiui, the deals were signed for that reason, in case one of Pfizer or AZ failed to deliver on time) and in Q3/4 we'll have 40m more Pfizer, the remainder of our Novavax order and the first 40m batch of Valneva. I'm led to believe that the government is also looking at getting more Moderna for next year now that the EU has made its long term bet on Pfizer which frees up 2022/3 delivery of Moderna doses.
LD voters are the poshest nowadays and probably least interested in football, so no surprise they are not great fans of the Tory or Labour leaders and particularly not fans of Boris.
Boris probably has the most appeal of any Tory leader to working class voters ever however, so no surprise he goes down well with football fans
Yes, the Johnson rating is no surprise. WWC Leave has a disproportionate presence amongst football fans. But I don't get why Starmer is loved by footy. Good sign that he is though. Very heartening for a Labour supporter (me) who whilst far from writing him off is getting a little twitchy at the stubborn Tory lead in the polls.
Mainly because of the residual working class Labour vote I suspect, not any great love for him personally.
Boris still does better with football supporters than Starmer does on the chart
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
It raises questions for the Post Office's auditors too. If they really thought there was all this fraud going on, how come it had not been picked up before? And why did the auditors not notice anything wrong with what Horizon was showing?
Spot on.
I have to deal with small time auditors a bit over small charities. They look at every detail of (entirely honest) accounts and report back something like that there is 37p expenditure under 'utilities' that ought to be under 'costs of trading' but otherwise it's fine.
It seems to me that the big outfits do nothing of the sort and take no responsibility.
I'd be interested in those charts further split by age and sex (probably not the sample size to do it).
Men more interested in football and more interested in politics (are either of those true, now?). Of course, it's net approval, but it you're not interested in/have a dim view of politics/politiicians then you're maybe more likely to have a negative view of the leaders.
Older people more interested in football* and [ditto]
*Afterall, the ESL was needed because youngsters don't care any more, no?
Did you see those comments from Perez about making football more like FIFA and having ultimate team style matches or splitting the game into more than two parts becuase kids are used to 15 minute match times in games and 90 minute matches can't hold their attention.
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
It raises questions for the Post Office's auditors too. If they really thought there was all this fraud going on, how come it had not been picked up before? And why did the auditors not notice anything wrong with what Horizon was showing?
I suspect the auditors bit comes down to the sheer scale of the post office - auditing would merely picking up the end figures which would be £x,000 missing at this post office especially as all the transactions seem to be correct and in place? Remember the issue stems from transactions that were placed in the custom written "messaging" system
It really was the case that Horizon cost so much and was written by experts so it can't be wrong.
Johnson and Starmer have identical net approval ratings overall? Doesn't that mean Starmer has improved substantially, in relative terms at least? Last I checked, he was mildly negative and Johnson was mildly positive.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
An unvaccinated population and no lockdown - and in India's case not much in the way of other precautions- make an outbreak inevitable. More infectious variants just contribute the the rapidity and scale of the outbreak.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
An unvaccinated population and no lockdown - and in India's case not much in the way of other precautions- make an outbreak inevitable. More infectious variants just contribute the the rapidity and scale of the outbreak.
The expert I spoke to a couple of times last year said that it's better for a virus to mutate to become more deadly than more transmissive. I think they have been proven correct, again.
Reminds me of Grindr for some reason. Going for the same vibe?
Maybe a name redolent of Scottish puritan granite like steadfast reliable fiscally sound boringness no longer commands credibility. What about GallowaySalmond (or GllwySlmnd) as a more reliable sounding name. Probably some firm of legal ambulance chasers has already thought of it.
GalSal is more catchy, I think. Or SalGal. Because with those 2 egos there'd be an almighty battle for 1st billing. I've always liked "Mantissa" as a name for an insurance co. Surprised nobody has ever used it. Perhaps I should register the domain.
Reminds me of Grindr for some reason. Going for the same vibe?
They'll have fun with the radio ads, won't they? "For more details, visit to aberdeen.com, that's a-b-r-d-n-dot-com, got a pen? No? Well listen back in a few minutes an we'll have another ad to spell it for you again"
(though I guess the hip youngsters they're think they're targetting with the cool throwback to the dotcom boom name don't listen to radio)
French vaccine producer Valneva announced it is "deprioritizing" negotiations with the European Commission after more than six months of talks have yielded no results.
"We’ve committed significant time and effort to try to meet the needs of the central EC [European Commission] procurement process," Valneva CEO Thomas Lingelbach wrote in a press release late Tuesday. "Despite our recent clinical data, we have not made meaningful progress and have not yet secured a supply agreement."
The company said it instead would shift to negotiations with individual EU countries and interested nations outside the EU.
Don't read too much into this. Thanks to BioNTech's incredible progress and rock solid supply chain the EU's vaccine supply is now really solid already, and especially so by the time Valneva would be ready to ship any vaccines to the EU.\
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
It raises questions for the Post Office's auditors too. If they really thought there was all this fraud going on, how come it had not been picked up before? And why did the auditors not notice anything wrong with what Horizon was showing?
Spot on.
I have to deal with small time auditors a bit over small charities. They look at every detail of (entirely honest) accounts and report back something like that there is 37p expenditure under 'utilities' that ought to be under 'costs of trading' but otherwise it's fine.
It seems to me that the big outfits do nothing of the sort and take no responsibility.
The thing is that you can't do that. Small accounts are very easy to audit, larger ones are way harder and you are reliant on the computer having everything. Now in this case that wasn't the case but no one would think that was the case as there was a lot of testing that saying everything was fine with the core system.
Open banking is actually going to make that side of things a bit better as it's no longer what the system says the bank paid out, you can now see (from the bank themselves) exactly what the bank did pay out.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
An unvaccinated population and no lockdown - and in India's case not much in the way of other precautions- make an outbreak inevitable. More infectious variants just contribute the the rapidity and scale of the outbreak.
The expert I spoke to a couple of times last year said that it's better for a virus to mutate to become more deadly than more transmissive. I think they have been proven correct, again.
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
It raises questions for the Post Office's auditors too. If they really thought there was all this fraud going on, how come it had not been picked up before? And why did the auditors not notice anything wrong with what Horizon was showing?
I suspect the auditors bit comes down to the sheer scale of the post office - auditing would merely picking up the end figures which would be £x,000 missing at this post office especially as all the transactions seem to be correct and in place? Remember the issue stems from transactions that were placed in the custom written "messaging" system
It really was the case that Horizon cost so much and was written by experts so it can't be wrong.
The potential liabilities for wrongly prosecuting so many people are, of course, enormous.
The UK has done 38 million does, and a lot of those are Pfizer, so I think we can say AZ are still not on track. But the relaxed attitude to winter lockdowns would have made a lot more sense if there was an assumption of simply huge quantities of vaccine on the way.
The UK is up to 46m done, but yes it seems unlikely that AZ will deliver all 100m by the end of June. We're not going to have any major issues because Novavax and Moderna will make up for the supply shortfalls (and aiui, the deals were signed for that reason, in case one of Pfizer or AZ failed to deliver on time) and in Q3/4 we'll have 40m more Pfizer, the remainder of our Novavax order and the first 40m batch of Valneva. I'm led to believe that the government is also looking at getting more Moderna for next year now that the EU has made its long term bet on Pfizer which frees up 2022/3 delivery of Moderna doses.
Absolutely- the point is that first world countries are getting to the point where they can start thinking in terms of what to do with their excesses.
You're closer to the numbers than I am- what's your thinking about whether the boosters are going to be needed? Prudent to plan and all that, but there's not much sign so far of either immunity decaying significantly, or variants that can beat a vaccinated population, is there?
With my bleeding-heart-liberal heart.... erm... bleeding, I do feel a bit uncomfortable about the idea of being given a third vaccine dose when most of the world won't have had their first.
“Asia Today: Thailand’s health authorities have confirmed 2,070 new COVID-19 cases, a daily record that brings the country’s total above 50,000. The rising numbers are severely straining the supply of hospital beds and ICU capacity.”
The virus is maybe about to run rampant, right across Asia
The reality of COVID, without widespread vaccination unless you are in permanent lockdown / locked off from the world, its only a matter of time.
Its something the Swedish eggheahs called right from the beginning, but they thought it would be years until a vaccine would be developed.
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
It raises questions for the Post Office's auditors too. If they really thought there was all this fraud going on, how come it had not been picked up before? And why did the auditors not notice anything wrong with what Horizon was showing?
I suspect the auditors bit comes down to the sheer scale of the post office - auditing would merely picking up the end figures which would be £x,000 missing at this post office especially as all the transactions seem to be correct and in place? Remember the issue stems from transactions that were placed in the custom written "messaging" system
It really was the case that Horizon cost so much and was written by experts so it can't be wrong.
The potential liabilities for wrongly prosecuting so many people are, of course, enormous.
Less than the £1bn the post office spent on the software though.
£1bn reasons why the software is right and the innocent postmaster guilty as....
I can't keep up with the woke stuff....the BBC describe Chloe Zhao as the first woman of colour to win best director.
Since when have people from China been described as people of colour? Or am I missing something?
About a year. People of color now means anyone who is the tiniest bit non-white (but not Jews, obvs)
The phrase “of color” has about 2 years of life left, I reckon. After that it will be seen as grossly offensive, and it will follow BAME into the lexical bin
The UK has done 38 million does, and a lot of those are Pfizer, so I think we can say AZ are still not on track. But the relaxed attitude to winter lockdowns would have made a lot more sense if there was an assumption of simply huge quantities of vaccine on the way.
The UK is up to 46m done, but yes it seems unlikely that AZ will deliver all 100m by the end of June. We're not going to have any major issues because Novavax and Moderna will make up for the supply shortfalls (and aiui, the deals were signed for that reason, in case one of Pfizer or AZ failed to deliver on time) and in Q3/4 we'll have 40m more Pfizer, the remainder of our Novavax order and the first 40m batch of Valneva. I'm led to believe that the government is also looking at getting more Moderna for next year now that the EU has made its long term bet on Pfizer which frees up 2022/3 delivery of Moderna doses.
Absolutely- the point is that first world countries are getting to the point where they can start thinking in terms of what to do with their excesses.
You're closer to the numbers than I am- what's your thinking about whether the boosters are going to be needed? Prudent to plan and all that, but there's not much sign so far of either immunity decaying significantly, or variants that can beat a vaccinated population, is there?
With my bleeding-heart-liberal heart.... erm... bleeding, I do feel a bit uncomfortable about the idea of being given a third vaccine dose when most of the world won't have had their first.
Isn't the issue going to be won't know if a third vaccine is required as no one will be in a position this year to answer that question.
Better instead to give people a third vaccination and not take the risk.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
The Indian variant is probably more transmissive just like the Kent one and in India there is no such thing as social distancing.
Thailand is experiencing a sudden enormous surge in cases (relative to their previous excellent record)
I wonder if they have the Indian variant. If it is much more transmissible that would explain things
I have been chatting to friends in Indonesia who say "things are getting better" - my advice "watch this space" - when a new variant gets in, or develops, as it inevitably will, people will think "the measures worked last time, they'll work this time" - they won't.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
An unvaccinated population and no lockdown - and in India's case not much in the way of other precautions- make an outbreak inevitable. More infectious variants just contribute the the rapidity and scale of the outbreak.
The expert I spoke to a couple of times last year said that it's better for a virus to mutate to become more deadly than more transmissive. I think they have been proven correct, again.
Better for the virus or for the hosts?!
In general, a more deadly virus with a higher CFR still only infects the same number of people and only increases the hospitalisation rate marginally. A virus that is more transmissive but has the same CFR will infect many times more people resulting in a much steeper exponential rise in the number of deaths and numbers in hospital. We saw that first hand with the Kent variant and unfortunately it looks like the same situation in India but in a country completey incapable of social distancing and lockdown adherence.
I can't keep up with the woke stuff....the BBC describe Chloe Zhao as the first woman of colour to win best director.
Since when have people from China been described as people of colour? Or am I missing something?
About a year. People of color now means anyone who is the tiniest bit non-white (but not Jews, obvs)
The phrase “of color” has about 2 years of life left, I reckon. After that it will be seen as grossly offensive, and it will follow BAME into the lexical bin
I was genuinely presuming I didn't know something about her background, that she is actually of mixed race or something. I have honestly never heard people from Asia being described as such.
Do the wokies not realise that labelling every non-white person as such sounds very much like "othering" that genuine racists / racist countries practice e.g South Africa back in the day, describing all none 100% white European as the coloureds.
Boris Johnson's biographer Andrew Gimson says the PM 'may well have' made 'tasteless' remark about allowing dead bodies to pile up but believes it will 'strengthen his reputation as a man who talks as a man in the pub would' https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1386631561265750017
The UK has done 38 million does, and a lot of those are Pfizer, so I think we can say AZ are still not on track. But the relaxed attitude to winter lockdowns would have made a lot more sense if there was an assumption of simply huge quantities of vaccine on the way.
The UK is up to 46m done, but yes it seems unlikely that AZ will deliver all 100m by the end of June. We're not going to have any major issues because Novavax and Moderna will make up for the supply shortfalls (and aiui, the deals were signed for that reason, in case one of Pfizer or AZ failed to deliver on time) and in Q3/4 we'll have 40m more Pfizer, the remainder of our Novavax order and the first 40m batch of Valneva. I'm led to believe that the government is also looking at getting more Moderna for next year now that the EU has made its long term bet on Pfizer which frees up 2022/3 delivery of Moderna doses.
Absolutely- the point is that first world countries are getting to the point where they can start thinking in terms of what to do with their excesses.
You're closer to the numbers than I am- what's your thinking about whether the boosters are going to be needed? Prudent to plan and all that, but there's not much sign so far of either immunity decaying significantly, or variants that can beat a vaccinated population, is there?
With my bleeding-heart-liberal heart.... erm... bleeding, I do feel a bit uncomfortable about the idea of being given a third vaccine dose when most of the world won't have had their first.
There’s suggestions already that UAE and Israel are going to encourage tourists over the usually-quiet hot summer months, by offering vaccines to visitors.
I’d imagine quite the take-up from Africa and Asia, among those who do a lot of travelling.
I'd be interested in those charts further split by age and sex (probably not the sample size to do it).
Men more interested in football and more interested in politics (are either of those true, now?). Of course, it's net approval, but it you're not interested in/have a dim view of politics/politiicians then you're maybe more likely to have a negative view of the leaders.
Older people more interested in football* and [ditto]
*Afterall, the ESL was needed because youngsters don't care any more, no?
Did you see those comments from Perez about making football more like FIFA and having ultimate team style matches or splitting the game into more than two parts becuase kids are used to 15 minute match times in games and 90 minute matches can't hold their attention.
The guy is a complete cretin.
Mercifully, I managed to avoid just about everything Perez had said.
Interesting ideas though, we could do the same with politics. Five years is far too long between goals (elections). Public vote once per week to eliminate a few from the house, with new entries each week too. And why not bring in the best/worst of Europe too? VdL's post-eviction interview would be fun, no doubt.
“Asia Today: Thailand’s health authorities have confirmed 2,070 new COVID-19 cases, a daily record that brings the country’s total above 50,000. The rising numbers are severely straining the supply of hospital beds and ICU capacity.”
The virus is maybe about to run rampant, right across Asia
The reality of COVID, without widespread vaccination unless you are in permanent lockdown / locked off from the world, its only a matter of time.
Its something the Swedish eggheahs called right from the beginning, but they thought it would be years until a vaccine would be developed.
Yes indeed. There must be a risk it will get into Australia and run riot there, too
It’s heading south from indochina. eg The Philippines
“1 MILLION RECORDED COVID-19 CASES
Coronavirus cases in the Philippines reach 1,006,428 with 8,929 additional infections on Monday, April 26.
74,623 are active cases
More #COVID19 updates: news.abs-cbn.com/covid19-watch”
The slow vaccine roll-out in Asia may turn out to be a humongous error. There is no reason a rich, advanced country like Japan shouldn’t be jabbing away furiously, like almost every western nation
Instead they’ve done about 2% of the populace and they have plans to increase the rate of vaccinations to “10,000 a day”
The UK has done 38 million does, and a lot of those are Pfizer, so I think we can say AZ are still not on track. But the relaxed attitude to winter lockdowns would have made a lot more sense if there was an assumption of simply huge quantities of vaccine on the way.
The UK is up to 46m done, but yes it seems unlikely that AZ will deliver all 100m by the end of June. We're not going to have any major issues because Novavax and Moderna will make up for the supply shortfalls (and aiui, the deals were signed for that reason, in case one of Pfizer or AZ failed to deliver on time) and in Q3/4 we'll have 40m more Pfizer, the remainder of our Novavax order and the first 40m batch of Valneva. I'm led to believe that the government is also looking at getting more Moderna for next year now that the EU has made its long term bet on Pfizer which frees up 2022/3 delivery of Moderna doses.
Absolutely- the point is that first world countries are getting to the point where they can start thinking in terms of what to do with their excesses.
You're closer to the numbers than I am- what's your thinking about whether the boosters are going to be needed? Prudent to plan and all that, but there's not much sign so far of either immunity decaying significantly, or variants that can beat a vaccinated population, is there?
With my bleeding-heart-liberal heart.... erm... bleeding, I do feel a bit uncomfortable about the idea of being given a third vaccine dose when most of the world won't have had their first.
I think the government won't want to take any chances on another lockdown, which is why 40m Pfizer doses are set to be ordered for Q3/4 delivery, supposedly of the gen 2 variety. That covers about 80% of all adults with a single booster dose.
However, the UK ordering more vaccines is no bad thing as we're pledged to give our spare doses to developing nations. It just means that we will now have 40m additional spare doses of J&J, AZ or Valneva to donate to COVAX. I think the best way to look at it is that by increasing our orders we're actually going to have vaccines that wouldn't otherwise exist, especially from the expensive mRNA type as developing nations are mostly locked out of those on a cost issue.
It's increasing the size of the pie vs taking a larger slice of it. The best thing about the UK and US deals is that they massively increased the size of the pie as part of the procurement process. The UK will manufacture around 1bn doses of various vaccines in 2022, in 2020 that number was something like 8m, including AZ. Even the US which had a strong vaccine manufacturing industry will have more than 4x the manufacturing next year than in 2020. All of this feeds into the global supply chain and will be of benefit to the whole world this year and next year.
The Conservatives have plunged five points after weeks of growing sleaze controversy, pollsters Ipsos MORI survey reveal in tonight’s Evening Standard.
It will fuel Tory fears that the “drip drip” of allegations is undermining their hopes in the Hartlepool by election and in local and Scottish elections on May 6.
The pollsters found the Tories on 40 per cent, down from 45 per cent in March, three points clear of Labour who are on 37 per cent, down from 38. The monthly survey put the Liberal Democrats on eight (from six), and the Greens unchanged at five.
The data will dismay Labour MPs because they suggest Sir Keir Starmer has so far failed to capture voters getting disenchanted with the Government and the Prime Minister.
The UK has done 38 million does, and a lot of those are Pfizer, so I think we can say AZ are still not on track. But the relaxed attitude to winter lockdowns would have made a lot more sense if there was an assumption of simply huge quantities of vaccine on the way.
The UK is up to 46m done, but yes it seems unlikely that AZ will deliver all 100m by the end of June. We're not going to have any major issues because Novavax and Moderna will make up for the supply shortfalls (and aiui, the deals were signed for that reason, in case one of Pfizer or AZ failed to deliver on time) and in Q3/4 we'll have 40m more Pfizer, the remainder of our Novavax order and the first 40m batch of Valneva. I'm led to believe that the government is also looking at getting more Moderna for next year now that the EU has made its long term bet on Pfizer which frees up 2022/3 delivery of Moderna doses.
Absolutely- the point is that first world countries are getting to the point where they can start thinking in terms of what to do with their excesses.
You're closer to the numbers than I am- what's your thinking about whether the boosters are going to be needed? Prudent to plan and all that, but there's not much sign so far of either immunity decaying significantly, or variants that can beat a vaccinated population, is there?
With my bleeding-heart-liberal heart.... erm... bleeding, I do feel a bit uncomfortable about the idea of being given a third vaccine dose when most of the world won't have had their first.
Isn't the issue going to be won't know if a third vaccine is required as no one will be in a position this year to answer that question.
Better instead to give people a third vaccination and not take the risk.
Yes. Possibility that take-up of boosters will be lower, and therefore we'll end up doing a mass population trial.
That's an issue but it's not the actual issue here - I'm still struggling to see what the trigger for this current outbreak is - unless it's as simple as Kent strain arriving in India...
An unvaccinated population and no lockdown - and in India's case not much in the way of other precautions- make an outbreak inevitable. More infectious variants just contribute the the rapidity and scale of the outbreak.
The expert I spoke to a couple of times last year said that it's better for a virus to mutate to become more deadly than more transmissive. I think they have been proven correct, again.
Better for the virus or for the hosts?!
In general, a more deadly virus with a higher CFR still only infects the same number of people and only increases the hospitalisation rate marginally. A virus that is more transmissive but has the same CFR will infect many times more people resulting in a much steeper exponential rise in the number of deaths and numbers in hospital. We saw that first hand with the Kent variant and unfortunately it looks like the same situation in India but in a country completey incapable of social distancing and lockdown adherence.
Worse - it seems India only realised the scale of the issue not in their equivalent to early January (as we did) but in late January instead.
@CarlottaVance posh-Tory types going back to the Lib Dems? Unlikely to make a massive difference in a GE if the Midlands and the "red wall" are still Blue.
French vaccine producer Valneva announced it is "deprioritizing" negotiations with the European Commission after more than six months of talks have yielded no results.
"We’ve committed significant time and effort to try to meet the needs of the central EC [European Commission] procurement process," Valneva CEO Thomas Lingelbach wrote in a press release late Tuesday. "Despite our recent clinical data, we have not made meaningful progress and have not yet secured a supply agreement."
The company said it instead would shift to negotiations with individual EU countries and interested nations outside the EU.
Don't read too much into this. Thanks to BioNTech's incredible progress and rock solid supply chain the EU's vaccine supply is now really solid already, and especially so by the time Valneva would be ready to ship any vaccines to the EU.\
I think Reuters is now behind a paywall - but it sounds like the EU argument is still "We're later in signing a deal, but you've still got to give them to us first anyway because we're the EU."
I have to deal with small time auditors a bit over small charities. They look at every detail of (entirely honest) accounts and report back something like that there is 37p expenditure under 'utilities' that ought to be under 'costs of trading' but otherwise it's fine.
It seems to me that the big outfits do nothing of the sort and take no responsibility.
As a small time auditor, my limited dealings with large audit firms is poor. They are huge themselves, and really don't care what they do. 1st year junior on transactions, 2nd year junior on the balance sheet, 3rd year is the manager and the partner doesn't even glance at the file.
Materiality of £50m. Who cares about anything. Plus, if there is an IT problem, the last people to be able to understand complex IT issues are accountants.
External audits are largely worthless, and just an arse covering exercise (albeit an expensive one) by accountancy firms who will never see any sanction. Sooner the audit is scrapped the better.... but I'm not holding my breath.
The Conservatives have plunged five points after weeks of growing sleaze controversy, pollsters Ipsos MORI survey reveal in tonight’s Evening Standard.
It will fuel Tory fears that the “drip drip” of allegations is undermining their hopes in the Hartlepool by election and in local and Scottish elections on May 6.
The pollsters found the Tories on 40 per cent, down from 45 per cent in March, three points clear of Labour who are on 37 per cent, down from 38. The monthly survey put the Liberal Democrats on eight (from six), and the Greens unchanged at five.
The data will dismay Labour MPs because they suggest Sir Keir Starmer has so far failed to capture voters getting disenchanted with the Government and the Prime Minister.
The slow vaccine roll-out in Asia may turn out to be a humongous error. There is no reason a rich, advanced country like Japan shouldn’t be jabbing away furiously, like almost every western nation
Instead they’ve done about 2% of the populace and they have plans to increase the rate of vaccinations to “10,000 a day”
HMG's plan is not to concede to EU's demands on NI Protocol
It's to build up a comprehensive dataset & evidence base to demonstrate that EU's concerns over integrity of Single Market are theoretical & unjustified
I can't keep up with the woke stuff....the BBC describe Chloe Zhao as the first woman of colour to win best director.
Since when have people from China been described as people of colour? Or am I missing something?
About a year. People of color now means anyone who is the tiniest bit non-white (but not Jews, obvs)
The phrase “of color” has about 2 years of life left, I reckon. After that it will be seen as grossly offensive, and it will follow BAME into the lexical bin
As a snowflake I find your use of the American spelling of 'color' grossly offensive already, actually.
Boris Johnson's biographer Andrew Gimson says the PM 'may well have' made 'tasteless' remark about allowing dead bodies to pile up but believes it will 'strengthen his reputation as a man who talks as a man in the pub would' https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1386631561265750017
Exactly, people are getting it wrong - yet again.
Also, criticism from Dominic Cummings will be interpreted as the pot calling the kettle black, particularly since Boris covered for him for months (at considerable cost to his own reputation) to protect him from the Barnard Castle fallout.
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
It raises questions for the Post Office's auditors too. If they really thought there was all this fraud going on, how come it had not been picked up before? And why did the auditors not notice anything wrong with what Horizon was showing?
Spot on.
I have to deal with small time auditors a bit over small charities. They look at every detail of (entirely honest) accounts and report back something like that there is 37p expenditure under 'utilities' that ought to be under 'costs of trading' but otherwise it's fine.
It seems to me that the big outfits do nothing of the sort and take no responsibility.
The thing is that you can't do that. Small accounts are very easy to audit, larger ones are way harder and you are reliant on the computer having everything. Now in this case that wasn't the case but no one would think that was the case as there was a lot of testing that saying everything was fine with the core system.
Open banking is actually going to make that side of things a bit better as it's no longer what the system says the bank paid out, you can now see (from the bank themselves) exactly what the bank did pay out.
Confession time. I'm a Chartered Accountant and therefore did lots of auditing as a young man. IMO there's a structural issue preventing the big firms doing rigorous audits - our old friend, the Conflict of Interest. Perhaps this has been fixed now, I've lost touch, but the audit used to be treated as a loss leader to get juicy consulting work. If that's your game you'll be loath to piss off management with too many tough questions about the accounts. Indeed I often saw people ticked off for "upsetting" the client in this manner.
French vaccine producer Valneva announced it is "deprioritizing" negotiations with the European Commission after more than six months of talks have yielded no results.
"We’ve committed significant time and effort to try to meet the needs of the central EC [European Commission] procurement process," Valneva CEO Thomas Lingelbach wrote in a press release late Tuesday. "Despite our recent clinical data, we have not made meaningful progress and have not yet secured a supply agreement."
The company said it instead would shift to negotiations with individual EU countries and interested nations outside the EU.
Don't read too much into this. Thanks to BioNTech's incredible progress and rock solid supply chain the EU's vaccine supply is now really solid already, and especially so by the time Valneva would be ready to ship any vaccines to the EU.\
I think Reuters is now behind a paywall - but it sounds like the EU argument is still "We're later in signing a deal, but you've still got to give them to us first anyway because we're the EU."
The actual line is
The Commission has also not yet completed a deal with Novavax, an American vaccine producer, due to issues with its delivery schedule.
which if the issue is that the UK has a first supply clause because we got their first is an EU (and EU speed / competency) issue more than anything else.
And if that means spare stock to go to the third world rather than the EU so be it.
I have to deal with small time auditors a bit over small charities. They look at every detail of (entirely honest) accounts and report back something like that there is 37p expenditure under 'utilities' that ought to be under 'costs of trading' but otherwise it's fine.
It seems to me that the big outfits do nothing of the sort and take no responsibility.
As a small time auditor, my limited dealings with large audit firms is poor. They are huge themselves, and really don't care what they do. 1st year junior on transactions, 2nd year junior on the balance sheet, 3rd year is the manager and the partner doesn't even glance at the file.
Materiality of £50m. Who cares about anything. Plus, if there is an IT problem, the last people to be able to understand complex IT issues are accountants.
External audits are largely worthless, and just an arse covering exercise (albeit an expensive one) by accountancy firms who will never see any sanction. Sooner the audit is scrapped the better.... but I'm not holding my breath.
The way to fix audit is accountability. The guy who signs the paperwork is in just as much trouble as the engineer of the bridge that falls down. Make the partners actually work for their money - which in almost all cases, is quite a lot of money.
I wonder if an mRNA vaccine can be developed for the common flu ?
I've heard of side effects with the regular flu vaccine which has always made it seem a bit unappealing (I've never particularly been a priority either tbh & so never had it); Pfizer nada, nil, zero on the first dose at least...
The slow vaccine roll-out in Asia may turn out to be a humongous error. There is no reason a rich, advanced country like Japan shouldn’t be jabbing away furiously, like almost every western nation
Instead they’ve done about 2% of the populace and they have plans to increase the rate of vaccinations to “10,000 a day”
All they can do now is pray they don’t get hit by a variant. An absurd failure
What a hopeless rollout for such a rich country.
It is incredibly crap. A mixture of bureaucracy, inertia and an ethnocentric belief that vaccines must be tested on Japanese people, first. Or so I have read
Many of the Asian countries that did really well last year might be in for a nasty surprise. This virus has a habit of punishing smugness
eek said: show previous quotes And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
It sounds like they’d convinced themselves - with little evidence - that there was a massive theft problem, and the funky new computer system was going to expose the scale of the problem.
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
It raises questions for the Post Office's auditors too. If they really thought there was all this fraud going on, how come it had not been picked up before? And why did the auditors not notice anything wrong with what Horizon was showing?
Spot on.
I have to deal with small time auditors a bit over small charities. They look at every detail of (entirely honest) accounts and report back something like that there is 37p expenditure under 'utilities' that ought to be under 'costs of trading' but otherwise it's fine.
It seems to me that the big outfits do nothing of the sort and take no responsibility.
The thing is that you can't do that. Small accounts are very easy to audit, larger ones are way harder and you are reliant on the computer having everything. Now in this case that wasn't the case but no one would think that was the case as there was a lot of testing that saying everything was fine with the core system.
Open banking is actually going to make that side of things a bit better as it's no longer what the system says the bank paid out, you can now see (from the bank themselves) exactly what the bank did pay out.
Confession time. I'm a Chartered Accountant and therefore did lots of auditing as a young man. IMO there's a structural issue preventing the big firms doing rigorous audits - our old friend, the Conflict of Interest. Perhaps this has been fixed now, I've lost touch, but the audit used to be treated as a loss leader to get juicy consulting work. If that's your game you'll be loath to piss off management with too many tough questions about the accounts. Indeed I often saw people ticked off for "upsetting" the client in this manner.
PB coming into its own again — being able to read the thoughts of experts and/or those with experience of different industries on current events and stories of the day. Incredibly interesting.
Call me old fashioned but I think the smoking gun is *not* whether Boris Johnson did or did not say “let the bodies pile high in their thousands” - it’s that he did, in fact, let the bodies pile high in their thousands https://twitter.com/gracepetrie/status/1386608395189428231
Comments
"In the light of what is unfolding in India, that is stomach-turning."
I agree. Do these euro politicians not stop and think about the wider context for a moment?
British asset manager Standard Life Aberdeen to change name to "Abrdn"
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/standard-life-aberdeen-change-name-abrdn-2021-04-26/
Boris probably has the most appeal of any Tory leader to working class voters ever however, so no surprise he goes down well with football fans
Isn't the takeaway that football fans think of Boris and Keir in almost the same way. Perhaps they just care far more about football than politics!
How the Modi Government Overestimated India’s Capacity to Make COVID Vaccine
https://science.thewire.in/health/narendra-modi-government-overestimated-india-covid-vaccine-manufacturing-capacity-shortage/
If so I am very flattered!
French vaccine producer Valneva announced it is "deprioritizing" negotiations with the European Commission after more than six months of talks have yielded no results.
"We’ve committed significant time and effort to try to meet the needs of the central EC [European Commission] procurement process," Valneva CEO Thomas Lingelbach wrote in a press release late Tuesday. "Despite our recent clinical data, we have not made meaningful progress and have not yet secured a supply agreement."
The company said it instead would shift to negotiations with individual EU countries and interested nations outside the EU.
https://www.politico.eu/article/valneva-walks-away-from-vaccine-negotiations-with-commission/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619423751
Meanwhile, a fanboy tweets:
Don't read too much into this. Thanks to BioNTech's incredible progress and rock solid supply chain the EU's vaccine supply is now really solid already, and especially so by the time Valneva would be ready to ship any vaccines to the EU.\
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1386614791498878977?s=20
Nothing to see here! Move along! An unqualified success story......
eek said:
show previous quotes
And it's especially hard if you've been there a long time - I find it easier to point stuff out because I have enough money to live with the consequences of being asked to clear my desk.
I don't think many people within the organisation were in a position to do that - and that is a problem that is virtually impossible to fix.
"I found it easier the longer I had been there - partly because I had established my credibility and toughness (the first time I called out some serious bad behaviour it did not go down well but I had my boss's backing and just kept going. The individual concerned was later put in front of one of the Parliamentary committees on Banking Misbehaviour and had a very uncomfortable time claiming not to know anything), partly because there was external pressure on the organisation ie a regulator and partly because of the context. It was obvious that banks were cocking a lot up even if many did not want to admit how widespread it was.
The Post Office had no external regulator, Ministers were ineffective, the senior leadership believed IT could never go wrong, their internal staff saw themselves as acting only in the interests of the PO and being judge, jury and prosecutor in your own cause is a recipe for disaster. Plus a large dose of cowardice by lots of people - a very common factor in all these situations. Lots of people will fail to do the right thing because they are scared for their jobs, cannot afford to lose them etc etc. Individually they may not be bad people but the consequence of their inaction is that bad things happen."
When the errors started, they were cheering that they’d found the theft, and everything else flowed from there.
No-one senior ever stood back and asked “Are you completely sure we have got this right?”
https://twitter.com/hitcockbottom/status/1386520856768122880?s=21
The perfect opportunity for a series of super-super-super spreader events.
The majority would say, suppose they ever thought about it, that both politics and football geeks should get a life. This view is unlikely to take off on PLTCLBTTNG but that doesn't mean that any of its contributors are sane or normal
The original plan was 30 million doses by September 2020.
That became the 100 million doses delivered by end of June 2021.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUKKBN27K2GU
The UK has done 38 million does, and a lot of those are Pfizer, so I think we can say AZ are still not on track. But the relaxed attitude to winter lockdowns would have made a lot more sense if there was an assumption of simply huge quantities of vaccine on the way.
He has a keen interest in cinematography and is studying it
He said he was going to put a bet on the Oscars last night on an outsider -
I talked him into saving his cash
He listened
If he had made the bet he would have made a tasty profit.
We're in a slightly different position as we have a largish pent up demand for second doses which isn't the case over the channel or particularly in the USA.
Marvellous.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/
I wonder if they have the Indian variant. If it is much more transmissible that would explain things
Quote of the day, about the Oscars:
https://twitter.com/marknorm/status/1386370385424261121
“The Oscars now feel like Halloween - I don’t care as much as I used to, people get all dressed up and it’s a huge night for pedophiles.”
https://twitter.com/ap/status/1385537962008616961?s=21
“Asia Today: Thailand’s health authorities have confirmed 2,070 new COVID-19 cases, a daily record that brings the country’s total above 50,000. The rising numbers are severely straining the supply of hospital beds and ICU capacity.”
The virus is maybe about to run rampant, right across Asia
Men more interested in football and more interested in politics (are either of those true, now?). Of course, it's net approval, but it you're not interested in/have a dim view of politics/politiicians then you're maybe more likely to have a negative view of the leaders.
Older people more interested in football* and [ditto]
*Afterall, the ESL was needed because youngsters don't care any more, no?
Boris still does better with football supporters than Starmer does on the chart
Spot on.
I have to deal with small time auditors a bit over small charities. They look at every detail of (entirely honest) accounts and report back something like that there is 37p expenditure under 'utilities' that ought to be under 'costs of trading' but otherwise it's fine.
It seems to me that the big outfits do nothing of the sort and take no responsibility.
The guy is a complete cretin.
It really was the case that Horizon cost so much and was written by experts so it can't be wrong.
More infectious variants just contribute the the rapidity and scale of the outbreak.
(though I guess the hip youngsters they're think they're targetting with the cool throwback to the dotcom boom name don't listen to radio)
IMO the bit missing is that it is reported that the UK contract for Valneva contains a first-supply clause. And that Brussels would not accept that.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-valneva-idUSKBN29M0FB
Open banking is actually going to make that side of things a bit better as it's no longer what the system says the bank paid out, you can now see (from the bank themselves) exactly what the bank did pay out.
Since when have people from China been described as people of colour? Or am I missing something?
You're closer to the numbers than I am- what's your thinking about whether the boosters are going to be needed? Prudent to plan and all that, but there's not much sign so far of either immunity decaying significantly, or variants that can beat a vaccinated population, is there?
With my bleeding-heart-liberal heart.... erm... bleeding, I do feel a bit uncomfortable about the idea of being given a third vaccine dose when most of the world won't have had their first.
Its something the Swedish eggheahs called right from the beginning, but they thought it would be years until a vaccine would be developed.
£1bn reasons why the software is right and the innocent postmaster guilty as....
(the US did at least save him from witnessing the recent decline)
The phrase “of color” has about 2 years of life left, I reckon. After that it will be seen as grossly offensive, and it will follow BAME into the lexical bin
Better instead to give people a third vaccination and not take the risk.
Do the wokies not realise that labelling every non-white person as such sounds very much like "othering" that genuine racists / racist countries practice e.g South Africa back in the day, describing all none 100% white European as the coloureds.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1386632488202739719
Boris Johnson's biographer Andrew Gimson says the PM 'may well have' made 'tasteless' remark about allowing dead bodies to pile up but believes it will 'strengthen his reputation as a man who talks as a man in the pub would'
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1386631561265750017
I’d imagine quite the take-up from Africa and Asia, among those who do a lot of travelling.
CON: 40% (-5)
LAB: 37% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @IpsosMORI, 16 - 22 Apr
C… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1386633074390274048
Interesting ideas though, we could do the same with politics. Five years is far too long between goals (elections). Public vote once per week to eliminate a few from the house, with new entries each week too. And why not bring in the best/worst of Europe too? VdL's post-eviction interview would be fun, no doubt.
It’s heading south from indochina. eg The Philippines
“1 MILLION RECORDED COVID-19 CASES
Coronavirus cases in the Philippines reach 1,006,428 with 8,929 additional infections on Monday, April 26.
74,623 are active cases
More #COVID19 updates: news.abs-cbn.com/covid19-watch”
https://twitter.com/abscbnnews/status/1386590874247700480?s=21
The slow vaccine roll-out in Asia may turn out to be a humongous error. There is no reason a rich, advanced country like Japan shouldn’t be jabbing away furiously, like almost every western nation
Instead they’ve done about 2% of the populace and they have plans to increase the rate of vaccinations to “10,000 a day”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/25/national/10000-shots-vaccinations-japan/
All they can do now is pray they don’t get hit by a variant. An absurd failure
CON: 40% (-5)
LAB: 37% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)
via
@IpsosMORI
, 16 - 22 Apr
Chgs. w/ Mar
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1386633074390274048?s=20
BBC News - UK economy 'set to grow at fastest rate on record'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56885457
However, the UK ordering more vaccines is no bad thing as we're pledged to give our spare doses to developing nations. It just means that we will now have 40m additional spare doses of J&J, AZ or Valneva to donate to COVAX. I think the best way to look at it is that by increasing our orders we're actually going to have vaccines that wouldn't otherwise exist, especially from the expensive mRNA type as developing nations are mostly locked out of those on a cost issue.
It's increasing the size of the pie vs taking a larger slice of it. The best thing about the UK and US deals is that they massively increased the size of the pie as part of the procurement process. The UK will manufacture around 1bn doses of various vaccines in 2022, in 2020 that number was something like 8m, including AZ. Even the US which had a strong vaccine manufacturing industry will have more than 4x the manufacturing next year than in 2020. All of this feeds into the global supply chain and will be of benefit to the whole world this year and next year.
The Conservatives have plunged five points after weeks of growing sleaze controversy, pollsters Ipsos MORI survey reveal in tonight’s Evening Standard.
It will fuel Tory fears that the “drip drip” of allegations is undermining their hopes in the Hartlepool by election and in local and Scottish elections on May 6.
The pollsters found the Tories on 40 per cent, down from 45 per cent in March, three points clear of Labour who are on 37 per cent, down from 38. The monthly survey put the Liberal Democrats on eight (from six), and the Greens unchanged at five.
The data will dismay Labour MPs because they suggest Sir Keir Starmer has so far failed to capture voters getting disenchanted with the Government and the Prime Minister.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/conservatives-five-points-labour-opinion-poll-local-elections-hartlepool-b931731.html#britain-elects-says-hi
BBC News - Google Argentina's domain name bought by man for £2
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56870270
That’s about as useful as saying “Record 33% increase for Lib Dems in new MORI poll”
India is locking down 2-3 periods too late.
And no that isnt a gcse maths question.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dems do well in the shires and districts for a variety of reasons.
Materiality of £50m. Who cares about anything. Plus, if there is an IT problem, the last people to be able to understand complex IT issues are accountants.
External audits are largely worthless, and just an arse covering exercise (albeit an expensive one) by accountancy firms who will never see any sanction. Sooner the audit is scrapped the better.... but I'm not holding my breath.
It would be back to 2017 with the DUP again having the balance of power
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=37&LIB=8&Reform=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.2&SCOTReform=0.8&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=49&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
It's to build up a comprehensive dataset & evidence base to demonstrate that EU's concerns over integrity of Single Market are theoretical & unjustified
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1386634264901468163?s=20
The old "it may work in practice, but does it work in theory?
Also, criticism from Dominic Cummings will be interpreted as the pot calling the kettle black, particularly since Boris covered for him for months (at considerable cost to his own reputation) to protect him from the Barnard Castle fallout.
And if that means spare stock to go to the third world rather than the EU so be it.
Breaking: Tories plunge in poll due to thing that happened after the poll was done. Or something.
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1386636327559516160?s=20
I've heard of side effects with the regular flu vaccine which has always made it seem a bit unappealing (I've never particularly been a priority either tbh & so never had it); Pfizer nada, nil, zero on the first dose at least...
Many of the Asian countries that did really well last year might be in for a nasty surprise. This virus has a habit of punishing smugness
https://twitter.com/gracepetrie/status/1386608395189428231