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A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform – politicalbetting.com

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  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    ridaligo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    I think that's a fair assessment.
    She has always reminded me of a modern day Joan of Arc. Utterly committed in her beliefs to the point of, in my view, foolish fanaticism, but somehow I get the impression that there is great deal of manipulation of her going on in the background and not always to her, or our, benefit.
    Indeed. I don't know why we have to be subjected to the committed beliefs of a 16 year old on any topic let alone one that is extremely complex with implications on society and economics way beyond her ability to understand or appreciate them.

    That the media (I'm looking at you BBC) jumps on this bandwagon without investigating and highlighting what is obvious PR manipulation is yet another example of the desperately poor journalism we have to put up with these days.
    i find her really irritating, and I mean REALLY irritating. However, I also find Nigel Farage irritating, Vladimir Putin frightening and Alex Salmond utterly repulsive. Unfortunately the BBC still needs to report on all these people and is not responsible for their existence.
    Reporting on her is one thing; puff pieces and "documentaries" quite another.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440
    eek said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence and a referendum? (oh they do see https://www.ft.com/content/fea2ad6b-90e6-4795-8269-3f4bffde80c9)

    So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.

    Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
    She's counting on Boris blocking it for her, thus stoking her grievance and keeping her in power.

    He should call her bluff instead.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,499
    A spokesman for the PM insisted that he would “not comment on speculation”, despite stories in the Times, The Daily Telegraph and The Sun quoting Downing Street sources claiming Mr Cummings leaked the texts.
    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1385561134355333120
  • “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    I'm not sure it does.

    The reason why there would need to be a border at the moment if Scotland were to be in the EU but outside the UK is the UK Government position on the type of Brexit it wanted. There's no inevitability about it.

    It does mean that, for Scotland to rejoin the EU without introducing a border with England, it'd require quite significant change to the UK deal with the EU. That's almost certainly not going to happen with this Government. There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 673

    eek said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence and a referendum? (oh they do see https://www.ft.com/content/fea2ad6b-90e6-4795-8269-3f4bffde80c9)

    So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.

    Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
    She's counting on Boris blocking it for her, thus stoking her grievance and keeping her in power.

    He should call her bluff instead.
    He'd campaign by threatening No Deal!
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    Basically Labour are stuck almost forever around 35%, that seems to be the floor for the time being, which is an improvement on 2019.

    2017 repeat is within reach, 40% should be doable with the right strategy.

    Based on voteshare - I know not always a great measure - Labour are actually in the last 16 years or so, historically reasonably popular. It's just that the Tories are even more popular.

    Voteshare, my dear fellow, is one thing. Turnout, especially in local elections, quite another.

    It is traditional for the turnout of ruling parties to drop while oppositions to increase. Differential turnout gave William Hague IDS and Milliband some really good election results while not been particularly popular.

    This has been turned on its head since Corbyn though. What's your thoughts for may?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,239

    eek said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence and a referendum? (oh they do see https://www.ft.com/content/fea2ad6b-90e6-4795-8269-3f4bffde80c9)

    So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.

    Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
    She's counting on Boris blocking it for her, thus stoking her grievance and keeping her in power.

    He should call her bluff instead.
    'Can't...can't...get...this bloody door open...'


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,608
    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440

    eek said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence and a referendum? (oh they do see https://www.ft.com/content/fea2ad6b-90e6-4795-8269-3f4bffde80c9)

    So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.

    Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
    She's counting on Boris blocking it for her, thus stoking her grievance and keeping her in power.

    He should call her bluff instead.
    'Can't...can't...get...this bloody door open...'


    What did you think of Sturgeon's performance on Question Time last night?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,499
    No 10, which was so busy dumping on Dominic Cummings last night, has gone all shy this morning. PM's spokesman won't comment on 'speculation' that Boris Johnson believes his former aide is the source of damaging leaks
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1385562725296771072
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,239

    eek said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence and a referendum? (oh they do see https://www.ft.com/content/fea2ad6b-90e6-4795-8269-3f4bffde80c9)

    So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.

    Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
    She's counting on Boris blocking it for her, thus stoking her grievance and keeping her in power.

    He should call her bluff instead.
    'Can't...can't...get...this bloody door open...'


    What did you think of Sturgeon's performance on Question Time last night?
    Was she on it? I thought it was a debate for managers of sub branches of parties, not their leaders.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,837

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens are a very different party to the British Greens. A better viewpoint would be they are Lib Dems with Green credentials.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    I'm not sure it does.

    The reason why there would need to be a border at the moment if Scotland were to be in the EU but outside the UK is the UK Government position on the type of Brexit it wanted. There's no inevitability about it.

    It does mean that, for Scotland to rejoin the EU without introducing a border with England, it'd require quite significant change to the UK deal with the EU. That's almost certainly not going to happen with this Government. There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    So its not a lie if you assume that rUK are going to rejoin the SM, the customs union and accept all EU regulations in the same timescale as the Scots are applying for membership, that is within the next 10 years? LOL.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    My school trips were never this eventful....

    BBC News - Northumberland Longridge Towers School strip club teacher banned
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-56858188
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,541
    Scott_xP said:

    No 10, which was so busy dumping on Dominic Cummings last night, has gone all shy this morning. PM's spokesman won't comment on 'speculation' that Boris Johnson believes his former aide is the source of damaging leaks
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1385562725296771072

    Maybe it’s dawned on them that resurrecting the ghost of Cummings isn’t such a bright idea?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    eek said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence and a referendum? (oh they do see https://www.ft.com/content/fea2ad6b-90e6-4795-8269-3f4bffde80c9)

    So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.

    Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
    She's counting on Boris blocking it for her, thus stoking her grievance and keeping her in power.

    He should call her bluff instead.
    'Can't...can't...get...this bloody door open...'


    What did you think of Sturgeon's performance on Question Time last night?
    Does anybody still watch Question Time?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    And CSU leader Soder is more popular than them both but the CDU decided to take hari kiri and pick Laschet so their own fault
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,541
    eek said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens are a very different party to the British Greens. A better viewpoint would be they are Lib Dems with Green credentials.
    Point of order!: The LibDems already have green credentials
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    My school trips were never this eventful....

    BBC News - Northumberland Longridge Towers School strip club teacher banned
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-56858188

    I once lost a pair of underpants on a trip to the Needles on the Isle of Wright. Sadly, it was not nearly as exciting as that sounds. I think I was about 9.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,860

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,480

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440
    eek said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens are a very different party to the British Greens. A better viewpoint would be they are Lib Dems with Green credentials.
    They're less "Green" than either the Tories or Lib Dems here.

    German politics doesn't really correspond to British politics very well. From what I know of it, I think I'd be voting for the FDP if I was German.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    edited April 23

    Basically Labour are stuck almost forever around 35%, that seems to be the floor for the time being, which is an improvement on 2019.

    2017 repeat is within reach, 40% should be doable with the right strategy.

    Based on voteshare - I know not always a great measure - Labour are actually in the last 16 years or so, historically reasonably popular. It's just that the Tories are even more popular.

    Voteshare, my dear fellow, is one thing. Turnout, especially in local elections, quite another.

    It is traditional for the turnout of ruling parties to drop while oppositions to increase. Differential turnout gave William Hague IDS and Milliband some really good election results while not been particularly popular.

    This has been turned on its head since Corbyn though. What's your thoughts for may?
    In 1998, Hague's first local elections, the Tories got 32%, in 2002, IDS' first local elections, the Tories got 34%, in 2004, Howard's first local elections the Tories got 37%. In Ed Miliband's first local elections as leader in 2011 Labour got 37% and in 2016, Corbyn's first local elections as leader Labour got 31%. So you would expect Starmer to get a score in the early to mid 30s on current polling.

    Blair in his first local elections as leader by contrast got 47% in 1995 which really suggested a Labour landslide was in the cards in 1997.

    Cameron got 39% in his first local elections as leader in 2006, so to be on course for power Labour really need to be scoring in the late 30s or 40%+ in local polls
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440
    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,860

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,480

    eek said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens are a very different party to the British Greens. A better viewpoint would be they are Lib Dems with Green credentials.
    They're less "Green" than either the Tories or Lib Dems here.

    German politics doesn't really correspond to British politics very well. From what I know of it, I think I'd be voting for the FDP if I was German.
    I think you'd be a very good fit. Often they are compared to the Lib Dems. They are actually the closest Germany gets to Thatcherite.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No 10, which was so busy dumping on Dominic Cummings last night, has gone all shy this morning. PM's spokesman won't comment on 'speculation' that Boris Johnson believes his former aide is the source of damaging leaks
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1385562725296771072

    Maybe it’s dawned on them that resurrecting the ghost of Cummings isn’t such a bright idea?
    Not talking about him has proven significantly more successful than the opposite. It is a policy that should certainly be continued.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440
    MaxPB said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
    Why do the CDU want to save UvdL over winning the election?

    I know she's one of theirs, but you'd think that if she fell it could be portrayed as personal responsibility and drawing a line under the situation to move on from.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens are a very different party to the British Greens. A better viewpoint would be they are Lib Dems with Green credentials.
    They're less "Green" than either the Tories or Lib Dems here.

    German politics doesn't really correspond to British politics very well. From what I know of it, I think I'd be voting for the FDP if I was German.
    I think you'd be a very good fit. Often they are compared to the Lib Dems. They are actually the closest Germany gets to Thatcherite.
    And they are normally the CDU's natural coalition partners anyway, just they lack the numbers at the moment combined for a majority
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
    Reassuring. Perhaps it will be for the best if they win then? Certainly seems the CDU don't deserve to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    edited April 23
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens are a very different party to the British Greens. A better viewpoint would be they are Lib Dems with Green credentials.
    They're less "Green" than either the Tories or Lib Dems here.

    German politics doesn't really correspond to British politics very well. From what I know of it, I think I'd be voting for the FDP if I was German.
    I think you'd be a very good fit. Often they are compared to the Lib Dems. They are actually the closest Germany gets to Thatcherite.
    The CDU are basically Ken Clarkeite Tory, the FDP are Cleggite, Orange Book LD.

    The CSU are a bit more rightwing and socially conservative
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,480
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
    I think yes. With an added counter culture spice. Certainly not Establishment anyways.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,541
    edited April 23
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
    The German Greens had their fundi versus realo debate way back, and the realos won.

    Indeed isn’t that where these terms originate?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,493
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
    I think yes. With an added counter culture spice. Certainly not Establishment anyways.
    Well the leadership of the party at that way inclined, certainly. The membership as a whole are a bit more radical.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,608
    extraordinary article on the 1000s of kids missing in our school system.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/22/conspiracy-silence-among-politicians-hidden-victims-lockdown/
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    My school trips were never this eventful....

    BBC News - Northumberland Longridge Towers School strip club teacher banned
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-56858188

    Would have been labelled a legend at school in my day.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,608
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
    The German Greens had their fundi versus realo debate way back, and the realos won.
    Yet the fundi form the backbone of the activists says Telegraph's AEP. Could get v interesting
  • TresTres Posts: 595
    Very much enjoying the sight of people getting annoyed that Greta Thunberg is somehow making them talk about her. Like our own version of the Daily Mail comments page.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Thompson, it's an unfortunate coincidence that May and Johnson are both trying to buy themselves legacy points by imposing barely considered and drastic 'green' targets which are due to hit long after their time in office.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,616
    I’m confused by the Cummings leak thing.
    It was actually briefed to three newspapers, with a embargo no less, by the govt.

    Is Boris just trying to deflect blame onto a now dis-favoured courtier?
  • DavidL said:

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    I'm not sure it does.

    The reason why there would need to be a border at the moment if Scotland were to be in the EU but outside the UK is the UK Government position on the type of Brexit it wanted. There's no inevitability about it.

    It does mean that, for Scotland to rejoin the EU without introducing a border with England, it'd require quite significant change to the UK deal with the EU. That's almost certainly not going to happen with this Government. There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    So its not a lie if you assume that rUK are going to rejoin the SM, the customs union and accept all EU regulations in the same timescale as the Scots are applying for membership, that is within the next 10 years? LOL.
    I don't think what Sturgeon said was a lie, no. Do I think Brexit makes it difficult for Sturgeon to achieve the objective of an independent Scotland, in the EU, but with free movement over the English border in the reasonably short term? Clearly it does.

    I'm not a supporter of Scottish independence, and this is clearly another practical problem to throw into a large mix of such problems. I'm just pointing out that the incompatibility isn't insoluble.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,499

    I’m confused by the Cummings leak thing.
    It was actually briefed to three newspapers, with a embargo no less, by the govt.

    Is Boris just trying to deflect blame onto a now dis-favoured courtier?

    Yes

    By highlighting why he never should have hired him in the first place...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,480

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
    The German Greens had their fundi versus realo debate way back, and the realos won.
    Yet the fundi form the backbone of the activists says Telegraph's AEP. Could get v interesting
    However. Baerbock's nomination has gone through with barely a murmur of dissent.
    The contrast with Laschet is quite striking.
    I do think the Christian or Catholic part of the name cannot be other than a turn off for large numbers of younger voters.
    It certainly would be for me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,616
    Scott_xP said:

    I’m confused by the Cummings leak thing.
    It was actually briefed to three newspapers, with a embargo no less, by the govt.

    Is Boris just trying to deflect blame onto a now dis-favoured courtier?

    Yes

    By highlighting why he never should have hired him in the first place...
    Actually I think the deflection worked.

    No one likes Cummings, and people have forgotten that Boris appointed him and let him run riot.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035

    Mr. Thompson, it's an unfortunate coincidence that May and Johnson are both trying to buy themselves legacy points by imposing barely considered and drastic 'green' targets which are due to hit long after their time in office.

    Yes, although in fairness just about every other leader in the democratic world is doing the same.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    edited April 23
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
    The German Greens had their fundi versus realo debate way back, and the realos won.
    Yet the fundi form the backbone of the activists says Telegraph's AEP. Could get v interesting
    However. Baerbock's nomination has gone through with barely a murmur of dissent.
    The contrast with Laschet is quite striking.
    I do think the Christian or Catholic part of the name cannot be other than a turn off for large numbers of younger voters.
    It certainly would be for me.
    Nothing to do with that at all, otherwise Christian Social Union leader and Catholic Soder would not have 39% of Germans preferring him as Chancellor to just 18% for Greens leader Habeck and 14% for SPD leader Scholz while Christian Democrat leader Laschet has just 16% of Germans preferring him as Chancellor to 22% for Habeck and 18% for Scholz in the latest poll.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chancellor_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election

    Just Laschet is hapless and Soder is charismatic and competent and the CDU are clueless in picking the former over the latter
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,860

    MaxPB said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
    Why do the CDU want to save UvdL over winning the election?

    I know she's one of theirs, but you'd think that if she fell it could be portrayed as personal responsibility and drawing a line under the situation to move on from.
    For a lot of Germans the EU is an article of faith, putting what they see as a Eurosceptic (he isn't) in charge is almost sacrilegious. The fear of being seen as un-European is massive, Laschet is another mindless EU-bot who will fall in line when necessary.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,239
    edited April 23

    DavidL said:

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    I'm not sure it does.

    The reason why there would need to be a border at the moment if Scotland were to be in the EU but outside the UK is the UK Government position on the type of Brexit it wanted. There's no inevitability about it.

    It does mean that, for Scotland to rejoin the EU without introducing a border with England, it'd require quite significant change to the UK deal with the EU. That's almost certainly not going to happen with this Government. There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    So its not a lie if you assume that rUK are going to rejoin the SM, the customs union and accept all EU regulations in the same timescale as the Scots are applying for membership, that is within the next 10 years? LOL.
    I don't think what Sturgeon said was a lie, no. Do I think Brexit makes it difficult for Sturgeon to achieve the objective of an independent Scotland, in the EU, but with free movement over the English border in the reasonably short term? Clearly it does.

    I'm not a supporter of Scottish independence, and this is clearly another practical problem to throw into a large mix of such problems. I'm just pointing out that the incompatibility isn't insoluble.
    It’s very much an Ur Unionist article of faith that no hypothetical problem of a future Indy Scotland could be solved while all the actual and manifest problems of the UK can be solved, but only at some undefined point in the future.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Basically Labour are stuck almost forever around 35%, that seems to be the floor for the time being, which is an improvement on 2019.

    2017 repeat is within reach, 40% should be doable with the right strategy.

    Based on voteshare - I know not always a great measure - Labour are actually in the last 16 years or so, historically reasonably popular. It's just that the Tories are even more popular.

    Voteshare, my dear fellow, is one thing. Turnout, especially in local elections, quite another.

    It is traditional for the turnout of ruling parties to drop while oppositions to increase. Differential turnout gave William Hague IDS and Milliband some really good election results while not been particularly popular.

    This has been turned on its head since Corbyn though. What's your thoughts for may?
    Hmmn. I think the turnout for both main parties may underperform the national polls.

    That's because labour aren't doing much opposing. The alternative is pretty samey, actually.

    On the crucial point of opening up after covid, their MPs are more on board than many tories.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,550

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    off topic but just to reply to a direct question from you in the predators thread a day or two back that I missed- yes we were harassed by Arctic Skuas at Muckle Flugga NNR when coming over the moorland to the seabird cliffs to look for the albatross. Had to hold sticks above our heads. Far more intimidating than any "bird of prey".
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 732
    HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20

    Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385198824948486146?s=20
    It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,017

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    Yep I listened to the excellent series about the whole scandal on Radio 4 last year. There are some people high up in the system who I genuinely believe should be in jail for the way they have handled this. People who were completely innocent have died because of this scandal and many more have had their lives ruined.

    No one will be held accountable though.
    What is interesting is the attitude.

    Just as with Rotherham, the idea that there should be any sanction against permanent officials who made policy decisions is regarded as immoral.

    "But x is a deeply knowledgeable career professional, and she has a right to move to a better job after completely failing in the last one.:
    A real acid test for Justin Welby in my opinion. From wiki,

    From 2002 to 2005, Vennells trained for Holy Orders on the St Albans and Oxford Ministry Course.[3] She was ordained in the Church of England as a deacon in 2005 and as a priest in 2006.[3] Since ordination, she has served as a non-stipendiary minister at Church of St Owen, Bromham in the Diocese of St Albans.[3][22] .On 14 June 2020 Vennells’s handling of the Post Office scandal and the relationship with her role as a priest were highlighted by the BBC’s morning religious radio programme. A convicted former postmaster called for the Bishop of St Albans to strip Vennells of office, Labour MP Chi Onwurah said she must be held accountable, and journalist Nick Wallis reported “real anger” that Vennells appeared to have been protected by “the establishment” including the Church of England, which many see as immoral. The church refused to take part but a statement from the Bishop said that he would consider acting if he received conclusive evidence of her wrongdoing.[23] As of April 2021 Vennells remains a member of the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.[24]

    Justin Welby is rather good at taking the moral high ground -- but it is what happens when one of your own is criticised that is the real test.

    So far, the CofE have failed conclusively. The statement from the Bishop of St Albans, referred to by wiki, was a grotesquely misjudged piece of propaganda.

    This is an appalling scandal -- let's see if Welby can censure someone on the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.

    My guess is Justin Welby will fail.

    Rotherham Forever.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    DavidL said:

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    I'm not sure it does.

    The reason why there would need to be a border at the moment if Scotland were to be in the EU but outside the UK is the UK Government position on the type of Brexit it wanted. There's no inevitability about it.

    It does mean that, for Scotland to rejoin the EU without introducing a border with England, it'd require quite significant change to the UK deal with the EU. That's almost certainly not going to happen with this Government. There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    So its not a lie if you assume that rUK are going to rejoin the SM, the customs union and accept all EU regulations in the same timescale as the Scots are applying for membership, that is within the next 10 years? LOL.
    I don't think what Sturgeon said was a lie, no. Do I think Brexit makes it difficult for Sturgeon to achieve the objective of an independent Scotland, in the EU, but with free movement over the English border in the reasonably short term? Clearly it does.

    I'm not a supporter of Scottish independence, and this is clearly another practical problem to throw into a large mix of such problems. I'm just pointing out that the incompatibility isn't insoluble.
    It is one of the clearer examples of why Brexit makes Scottish independence less likely rather than more as was claimed by quite a number of people on this board. The default position in 2014 was that Scotland would get accelerated membership of the EU and therefore there would be no problems with access to either the EU or UK SMs. It was a fantasy of course but I do accept that even although this would not have happened immediately it would have happened at some point.

    Scotland now has to choose between the rUK SM and the EU SM. The former is worth more than 4x the latter but if they choose the former EU membership is simply never going to happen. If they choose the latter Sturgeon was of course lying and that is SNP policy at the present time. So it was a lie. Of course.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,499

    people have forgotten that Boris appointed him and let him run riot.

    They really haven't, which would explain why BoZo is now running away from the story they leaked yesterday
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,699

    @HYUFD is by far the most interesting poster on this board these days.

    Afternoon, Correct, hope all is good.

    On topic, I think he wins but there are some other very good posters on here. He also is (a) proficient (b) well-informed and (c) comes in for more aggro than he deserves
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    HYUFD said:

    Basically Labour are stuck almost forever around 35%, that seems to be the floor for the time being, which is an improvement on 2019.

    2017 repeat is within reach, 40% should be doable with the right strategy.

    Based on voteshare - I know not always a great measure - Labour are actually in the last 16 years or so, historically reasonably popular. It's just that the Tories are even more popular.

    Voteshare, my dear fellow, is one thing. Turnout, especially in local elections, quite another.

    It is traditional for the turnout of ruling parties to drop while oppositions to increase. Differential turnout gave William Hague IDS and Milliband some really good election results while not been particularly popular.

    This has been turned on its head since Corbyn though. What's your thoughts for may?
    In 1998, Hague's first local elections, the Tories got 32%, in 2002, IDS' first local elections, the Tories got 34%, in 2004, Howard's first local elections the Tories got 37%. In Ed Miliband's first local elections as leader in 2011 Labour got 37% and in 2016, Corbyn's first local elections as leader Labour got 31%. So you would expect Starmer to get a score in the early to mid 30s on current polling.

    Blair in his first local elections as leader by contrast got 47% in 1995 which really suggested a Labour landslide was in the cards in 1997.

    Cameron got 39% in his first local elections as leader in 2006, so to be on course for power Labour really need to be scoring in the late 30s or 40%+ in local polls
    Not really, because Kinnock got 39% in his first local elections in 1984 and Miliband got 40% in 2011.

    You simply can't tell anything about the next election from local elections three years out.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,015

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    What events over the last four months have persuaded you this is likely?

    It's certainly not supported by polling evidence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    edited April 23

    HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20

    Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385198824948486146?s=20
    It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
    29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.

    The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,860

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    What events over the last four months have persuaded you this is likely?

    It's certainly not supported by polling evidence.
    It's not just Germans that treat the EU like an article of faith...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,814
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?

    Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
    People need to disregard the "Green" name when considering Germany. They bear virtually no resemblance to our version other than the name.
    I compared it to watching City play football.
    It will be a very different experience if it is the Manchester or Chelmsford version.
    It won't stop our media (especially Sky News I expect) banging on about it if the Greens do win over there asking what it means for politics here - while 100% ignoring the fact the German Greens are less ambitious on Green targets than Boris is.
    And not particularly lefty. Their policies are most reminiscent of orange book Lib Dems or Cameroons.
    The German Greens had their fundi versus realo debate way back, and the realos won.
    Yet the fundi form the backbone of the activists says Telegraph's AEP. Could get v interesting
    However. Baerbock's nomination has gone through with barely a murmur of dissent.
    The contrast with Laschet is quite striking.
    I do think the Christian or Catholic part of the name cannot be other than a turn off for large numbers of younger voters.
    It certainly would be for me.
    The biggest policy I heard they will pursue is heavy investment to help 'green' German industry.

    There is a lot of low hanging fruit eg 80 coal fired power stations, one of which is less than a year old.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440

    Mr. Thompson, it's an unfortunate coincidence that May and Johnson are both trying to buy themselves legacy points by imposing barely considered and drastic 'green' targets which are due to hit long after their time in office.

    Not necessarily for Boris.

    May committing to Net Zero days before she was replaced was ridiculous gesturism. She has no say on policy going forward and no ability to set any policies or commitments.

    Boris OTOH setting a commitment until 2035 - he could very possibly still be in power at the end of this decade. That's potentially just five years after he's replaced and if that target is to be achieved then it really needs him to be setting policies working towards that goal today.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    What events over the last four months have persuaded you this is likely?

    It's certainly not supported by polling evidence.
    Short term changes in polling are meaningless in the medium to long term - which is precisely what Sir Norfolk mentioned.

    I also believe that it is almost inevitable in the longer term.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,499
    “Nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England”

    Nicola Sturgeon is asked about comments made by Emma Harper in her interview with @ITVBorderRB

    The SNP candidate told @GregoryHoare “jobs can be created if a border is created” https://twitter.com/Political_AlanS/status/1385548182596300805/video/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    edited April 23

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    Yep I listened to the excellent series about the whole scandal on Radio 4 last year. There are some people high up in the system who I genuinely believe should be in jail for the way they have handled this. People who were completely innocent have died because of this scandal and many more have had their lives ruined.

    No one will be held accountable though.
    What is interesting is the attitude.

    Just as with Rotherham, the idea that there should be any sanction against permanent officials who made policy decisions is regarded as immoral.

    "But x is a deeply knowledgeable career professional, and she has a right to move to a better job after completely failing in the last one.:
    A real acid test for Justin Welby in my opinion. From wiki,

    From 2002 to 2005, Vennells trained for Holy Orders on the St Albans and Oxford Ministry Course.[3] She was ordained in the Church of England as a deacon in 2005 and as a priest in 2006.[3] Since ordination, she has served as a non-stipendiary minister at Church of St Owen, Bromham in the Diocese of St Albans.[3][22] .On 14 June 2020 Vennells’s handling of the Post Office scandal and the relationship with her role as a priest were highlighted by the BBC’s morning religious radio programme. A convicted former postmaster called for the Bishop of St Albans to strip Vennells of office, Labour MP Chi Onwurah said she must be held accountable, and journalist Nick Wallis reported “real anger” that Vennells appeared to have been protected by “the establishment” including the Church of England, which many see as immoral. The church refused to take part but a statement from the Bishop said that he would consider acting if he received conclusive evidence of her wrongdoing.[23] As of April 2021 Vennells remains a member of the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.[24]

    Justin Welby is rather good at taking the moral high ground -- but it is what happens when one of your own is criticised that is the real test.

    So far, the CofE have failed conclusively. The statement from the Bishop of St Albans, referred to by wiki, was a grotesquely misjudged piece of propaganda.

    This is an appalling scandal -- let's see if Welby can censure someone on the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.

    My guess is Justin Welby will fail.

    Rotherham Forever.
    Vennells is a businesswoman who also worked for Unilever, L'Oreal, Dixons, Argos and Whitbread.

    I fail to see why the way she ran the Post Office Ltd is any concern of the Church of England, the Church of England does not own the Post Office, it is now a UK Government Investments owned company.

    There is also no clear correlation between her decisions taken on the Post Office Board and her role in advising on Church of England investments either
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,015
    Thread:

    French company develops vaccine. French authorities uninterested. French company now in phase 3 trials and plans to manufacture in Scotland. French company also says it is giving up on the EU procurement process and will deal directly with governments.

    https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/1385554505677279236?s=20
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 618

    My school trips were never this eventful....

    BBC News - Northumberland Longridge Towers School strip club teacher banned
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-56858188

    I had one school trip in the 6th form where we did a tour of a brewery (over 25 years ago now). There was a pub at the end and us students were all very disappointed that they would not serve us but the teachers all had a pint.

    2 days later on the final evening of the school trip we got told we were going to a "bird sanctuary". Groans of boredom turned into smiles of joy when they actually took us to a pub. They teachers sat at their table drinking and chatting and let the rest of us order beers and play pool.

    Doubt they would get away with that now!

    Most of the kids on that trip probably had a great time. That teacher clearly lost control unfortunately.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 259

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    Yep I listened to the excellent series about the whole scandal on Radio 4 last year. There are some people high up in the system who I genuinely believe should be in jail for the way they have handled this. People who were completely innocent have died because of this scandal and many more have had their lives ruined.

    No one will be held accountable though.
    What is interesting is the attitude.

    Just as with Rotherham, the idea that there should be any sanction against permanent officials who made policy decisions is regarded as immoral.

    "But x is a deeply knowledgeable career professional, and she has a right to move to a better job after completely failing in the last one.:
    A real acid test for Justin Welby in my opinion. From wiki,

    From 2002 to 2005, Vennells trained for Holy Orders on the St Albans and Oxford Ministry Course.[3] She was ordained in the Church of England as a deacon in 2005 and as a priest in 2006.[3] Since ordination, she has served as a non-stipendiary minister at Church of St Owen, Bromham in the Diocese of St Albans.[3][22] .On 14 June 2020 Vennells’s handling of the Post Office scandal and the relationship with her role as a priest were highlighted by the BBC’s morning religious radio programme. A convicted former postmaster called for the Bishop of St Albans to strip Vennells of office, Labour MP Chi Onwurah said she must be held accountable, and journalist Nick Wallis reported “real anger” that Vennells appeared to have been protected by “the establishment” including the Church of England, which many see as immoral. The church refused to take part but a statement from the Bishop said that he would consider acting if he received conclusive evidence of her wrongdoing.[23] As of April 2021 Vennells remains a member of the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.[24]

    Justin Welby is rather good at taking the moral high ground -- but it is what happens when one of your own is criticised that is the real test.

    So far, the CofE have failed conclusively. The statement from the Bishop of St Albans, referred to by wiki, was a grotesquely misjudged piece of propaganda.

    This is an appalling scandal -- let's see if Welby can censure someone on the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.

    My guess is Justin Welby will fail.

    Rotherham Forever.
    When Vennells was awarded a CBE in 2019 for "services to the Post Office and charity" (!) the Bishop of London Sarah Mullally tweeted congratulations. I've looked on the Bishop of London's twitter account to see some response to today's announcement but all I see from the Bishop is loads and loads of stuff about fighting racism. Racism is wrong but the CoE seems obsessed with it at present to the exclusion of everything else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Basically Labour are stuck almost forever around 35%, that seems to be the floor for the time being, which is an improvement on 2019.

    2017 repeat is within reach, 40% should be doable with the right strategy.

    Based on voteshare - I know not always a great measure - Labour are actually in the last 16 years or so, historically reasonably popular. It's just that the Tories are even more popular.

    Voteshare, my dear fellow, is one thing. Turnout, especially in local elections, quite another.

    It is traditional for the turnout of ruling parties to drop while oppositions to increase. Differential turnout gave William Hague IDS and Milliband some really good election results while not been particularly popular.

    This has been turned on its head since Corbyn though. What's your thoughts for may?
    In 1998, Hague's first local elections, the Tories got 32%, in 2002, IDS' first local elections, the Tories got 34%, in 2004, Howard's first local elections the Tories got 37%. In Ed Miliband's first local elections as leader in 2011 Labour got 37% and in 2016, Corbyn's first local elections as leader Labour got 31%. So you would expect Starmer to get a score in the early to mid 30s on current polling.

    Blair in his first local elections as leader by contrast got 47% in 1995 which really suggested a Labour landslide was in the cards in 1997.

    Cameron got 39% in his first local elections as leader in 2006, so to be on course for power Labour really need to be scoring in the late 30s or 40%+ in local polls
    Not really, because Kinnock got 39% in his first local elections in 1984 and Miliband got 40% in 2011.

    You simply can't tell anything about the next election from local elections three years out.
    Kinnock actually got 37% in his first local elections in 1984, the same as Howard in 2004 and Miliband in 2011.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Kinnock got up to 44% in the 1990 local elections however after the poll tax and had the Tories not replaced Thatcher with Major and dumped the poll tax he may well have won the 1992 general election.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    This from the clown that suggests diversity training to people , what a cretinous creep you really are.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,095
    DavidL said:

    My school trips were never this eventful....

    BBC News - Northumberland Longridge Towers School strip club teacher banned
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-56858188

    I once lost a pair of underpants on a trip to the Needles on the Isle of Wright. Sadly, it was not nearly as exciting as that sounds. I think I was about 9.
    Surely going to a Costa Rican strip club is wht private school fees are for.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,437
    MaxPB said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
    The Forsa poll may well hsve been an outlier. Two other polls show a more familiar picture:

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,017
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    Yep I listened to the excellent series about the whole scandal on Radio 4 last year. There are some people high up in the system who I genuinely believe should be in jail for the way they have handled this. People who were completely innocent have died because of this scandal and many more have had their lives ruined.

    No one will be held accountable though.
    What is interesting is the attitude.

    Just as with Rotherham, the idea that there should be any sanction against permanent officials who made policy decisions is regarded as immoral.

    "But x is a deeply knowledgeable career professional, and she has a right to move to a better job after completely failing in the last one.:
    A real acid test for Justin Welby in my opinion. From wiki,

    From 2002 to 2005, Vennells trained for Holy Orders on the St Albans and Oxford Ministry Course.[3] She was ordained in the Church of England as a deacon in 2005 and as a priest in 2006.[3] Since ordination, she has served as a non-stipendiary minister at Church of St Owen, Bromham in the Diocese of St Albans.[3][22] .On 14 June 2020 Vennells’s handling of the Post Office scandal and the relationship with her role as a priest were highlighted by the BBC’s morning religious radio programme. A convicted former postmaster called for the Bishop of St Albans to strip Vennells of office, Labour MP Chi Onwurah said she must be held accountable, and journalist Nick Wallis reported “real anger” that Vennells appeared to have been protected by “the establishment” including the Church of England, which many see as immoral. The church refused to take part but a statement from the Bishop said that he would consider acting if he received conclusive evidence of her wrongdoing.[23] As of April 2021 Vennells remains a member of the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.[24]

    Justin Welby is rather good at taking the moral high ground -- but it is what happens when one of your own is criticised that is the real test.

    So far, the CofE have failed conclusively. The statement from the Bishop of St Albans, referred to by wiki, was a grotesquely misjudged piece of propaganda.

    This is an appalling scandal -- let's see if Welby can censure someone on the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.

    My guess is Justin Welby will fail.

    Rotherham Forever.
    Vennells is a businesswoman who also worked for Unilever, L'Oreal, Dixons, Argos and Whitbread.

    I fail to see why the way she ran the Post Office Ltd is any concern of the Church of England, the Church of England does not own the Post Office, it is now a UK Government Investments owned company.

    There is also no clear correlation between her decisions taken on the Post Office Board and her role in advising on Church of England investments either
    It is fine for the C of E to keep Vennells if they want on their 'Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England'.Their decision.

    What is not fine is to pontificate about the moral high ground and the ethics of business while doing so.

    In any normal country, Vennells would be in prison. Only in England would she be on an Ethical Advisory Group.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20

    Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385198824948486146?s=20
    It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
    29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.

    The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
    Thanks for that. Its all a bit frustrating. Do we know when Hartlepool is counting?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,814

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    Yep I listened to the excellent series about the whole scandal on Radio 4 last year. There are some people high up in the system who I genuinely believe should be in jail for the way they have handled this. People who were completely innocent have died because of this scandal and many more have had their lives ruined.

    No one will be held accountable though.
    What is interesting is the attitude.

    Just as with Rotherham, the idea that there should be any sanction against permanent officials who made policy decisions is regarded as immoral.

    "But x is a deeply knowledgeable career professional, and she has a right to move to a better job after completely failing in the last one.:
    A real acid test for Justin Welby in my opinion. From wiki,

    From 2002 to 2005, Vennells trained for Holy Orders on the St Albans and Oxford Ministry Course.[3] She was ordained in the Church of England as a deacon in 2005 and as a priest in 2006.[3] Since ordination, she has served as a non-stipendiary minister at Church of St Owen, Bromham in the Diocese of St Albans.[3][22] .On 14 June 2020 Vennells’s handling of the Post Office scandal and the relationship with her role as a priest were highlighted by the BBC’s morning religious radio programme. A convicted former postmaster called for the Bishop of St Albans to strip Vennells of office, Labour MP Chi Onwurah said she must be held accountable, and journalist Nick Wallis reported “real anger” that Vennells appeared to have been protected by “the establishment” including the Church of England, which many see as immoral. The church refused to take part but a statement from the Bishop said that he would consider acting if he received conclusive evidence of her wrongdoing.[23] As of April 2021 Vennells remains a member of the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.[24]

    Justin Welby is rather good at taking the moral high ground -- but it is what happens when one of your own is criticised that is the real test.

    So far, the CofE have failed conclusively. The statement from the Bishop of St Albans, referred to by wiki, was a grotesquely misjudged piece of propaganda.

    This is an appalling scandal -- let's see if Welby can censure someone on the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.

    My guess is Justin Welby will fail.

    Rotherham Forever.
    It would have to be removal from the EIG.

    You can't take money from an NSM, as they don't get any beyond expenses afaik.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    edited April 23

    MaxPB said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
    The Forsa poll may well hsve been an outlier. Two other polls show a more familiar picture:

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
    All give the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP however and Forsa even gives the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD.

    Laschet as Union Chancellor candidate has made a centre left coalition government under Green leader Baerbock now a real possibility
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    DavidL said:

    My school trips were never this eventful....

    BBC News - Northumberland Longridge Towers School strip club teacher banned
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-56858188

    I once lost a pair of underpants on a trip to the Needles on the Isle of Wright. Sadly, it was not nearly as exciting as that sounds. I think I was about 9.
    Surely going to a Costa Rican strip club is wht private school fees are for.
    I sure that it broadened the mind and experience of the participants quite considerably. Highly educational.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,017
    SandraMc said:

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    Yep I listened to the excellent series about the whole scandal on Radio 4 last year. There are some people high up in the system who I genuinely believe should be in jail for the way they have handled this. People who were completely innocent have died because of this scandal and many more have had their lives ruined.

    No one will be held accountable though.
    What is interesting is the attitude.

    Just as with Rotherham, the idea that there should be any sanction against permanent officials who made policy decisions is regarded as immoral.

    "But x is a deeply knowledgeable career professional, and she has a right to move to a better job after completely failing in the last one.:
    A real acid test for Justin Welby in my opinion. From wiki,

    From 2002 to 2005, Vennells trained for Holy Orders on the St Albans and Oxford Ministry Course.[3] She was ordained in the Church of England as a deacon in 2005 and as a priest in 2006.[3] Since ordination, she has served as a non-stipendiary minister at Church of St Owen, Bromham in the Diocese of St Albans.[3][22] .On 14 June 2020 Vennells’s handling of the Post Office scandal and the relationship with her role as a priest were highlighted by the BBC’s morning religious radio programme. A convicted former postmaster called for the Bishop of St Albans to strip Vennells of office, Labour MP Chi Onwurah said she must be held accountable, and journalist Nick Wallis reported “real anger” that Vennells appeared to have been protected by “the establishment” including the Church of England, which many see as immoral. The church refused to take part but a statement from the Bishop said that he would consider acting if he received conclusive evidence of her wrongdoing.[23] As of April 2021 Vennells remains a member of the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.[24]

    Justin Welby is rather good at taking the moral high ground -- but it is what happens when one of your own is criticised that is the real test.

    So far, the CofE have failed conclusively. The statement from the Bishop of St Albans, referred to by wiki, was a grotesquely misjudged piece of propaganda.

    This is an appalling scandal -- let's see if Welby can censure someone on the Ethical Investment Advisory Group of the Church of England.

    My guess is Justin Welby will fail.

    Rotherham Forever.
    When Vennells was awarded a CBE in 2019 for "services to the Post Office and charity" (!) the Bishop of London Sarah Mullally tweeted congratulations. I've looked on the Bishop of London's twitter account to see some response to today's announcement but all I see from the Bishop is loads and loads of stuff about fighting racism. Racism is wrong but the CoE seems obsessed with it at present to the exclusion of everything else.
    Ditto the Bishops of St Albans, one of her staunchest supporters. Nothing about Vennells.

    What a Godawful hypocritical organisation the CofE is.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,354
    Budget deficit for 2020/21 is £303bn - 14.5% of GDP.

    Just six weeks ago at the Budget it was forecast to be £355bn - 17% of GDP.

    How was the forecast so far out given it was only made six weeks ago?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56856195
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    edited April 23
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20

    Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385198824948486146?s=20
    It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
    29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.

    The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
    Thanks for that. Its all a bit frustrating. Do we know when Hartlepool is counting?
    Hartlepool also has local election and Mayoral and PCC ballots to count at the same time, so probably also on the Friday as well with Thursday night again verifications unless they want the by election result out of the way by Friday morning
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 732
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20

    Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385198824948486146?s=20
    It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
    29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.

    The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
    At least it will be easier for counting staff. In 2007, Mrs Fairliered worked for the local authority and was involved in the count. After spending the day touring polling stations, she went to the counting centre. The result was declared at 6.30am after 6 recounts. (The Returning Officer refused the Labour candidate a seventh). Counting of the local council elections started at 9am and finished at 2.30pm. She then caught a train to Aberdeen as our son was moving house. No sleep on the train, which was full of oil workers heading offshore.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,450

    DavidL said:

    My school trips were never this eventful....

    BBC News - Northumberland Longridge Towers School strip club teacher banned
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-56858188

    I once lost a pair of underpants on a trip to the Needles on the Isle of Wright. Sadly, it was not nearly as exciting as that sounds. I think I was about 9.
    Surely going to a Costa Rican strip club is wht private school fees are for.
    My school trips (state school) consisted of youth hostelling in Exmoor or Snowdonia.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,440
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
    The Forsa poll may well hsve been an outlier. Two other polls show a more familiar picture:

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
    All give the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP however and Forsa even gives the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD.

    Laschet as Union Chancellor candidate has made a centre left coalition government under Green leader Baerbock now a real possibility
    If the German Greens are more like Lib Dems will they necessarily want to partner with Linke?

    And will the SDP really want to be junior coalition partners again?

    Greens+SDP+FDP seems more realistic than Greens+SDP+Linke.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,591
    MikeL said:

    Budget deficit for 2020/21 is £303bn - 14.5% of GDP.

    Just six weeks ago at the Budget it was forecast to be £355bn - 17% of GDP.

    How was the forecast so far out given it was only made six weeks ago?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56856195

    Well the OBR have accrued for the expected write-offs of the government's loan fund, of c.£25bn.

    However the difference is still pretty susbtantial.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,929

    MaxPB said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
    Why do the CDU want to save UvdL over winning the election?

    I know she's one of theirs, but you'd think that if she fell it could be portrayed as personal responsibility and drawing a line under the situation to move on from.
    I understand she is a personal friend of Frau Merkel
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,375
    edit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20

    Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385198824948486146?s=20
    It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
    29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.

    The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
    Thanks for that. Its all a bit frustrating. Do we know when Hartlepool is counting?
    Hartlepool also has local election and Mayoral and PCC ballots to count at the same time, so probably also on the Friday as well with Thursday night again verifications unless they want the by election result out of the way by Friday morning
    Ach, its not going to be a proper PB election night is it? And it had the potential to be an absolute cracker with so many different elections going on at once.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,505
    edited April 23

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
    The Forsa poll may well hsve been an outlier. Two other polls show a more familiar picture:

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
    All give the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP however and Forsa even gives the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD.

    Laschet as Union Chancellor candidate has made a centre left coalition government under Green leader Baerbock now a real possibility
    If the German Greens are more like Lib Dems will they necessarily want to partner with Linke?

    And will the SDP really want to be junior coalition partners again?

    Greens+SDP+FDP seems more realistic than Greens+SDP+Linke.
    The Greens are not like the LDs, they are a centre left party closer to Starmer Labour certainly than Ed Davey or the Orange Book LD wing.

    The FDP are Orange Book LDs.

    The FDP are also even more economically rightwing than the CDU so the Green and SPD base would likely prefer a deal with Linke.

    However either way that would mean the CDU/CSU in opposition for the first time since 2005 due to their idiocy in picking Laschet over Soder
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,929
    Alistair said:
    A consistent policy, fairly applied.

    Political statements are banned at the Olympics. Taking the knee is a political statement. Therefore...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,176
    edited April 23
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders

    Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives

    (Telegraph)


    A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.

    Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.

    The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
    Why do the CDU want to save UvdL over winning the election?

    I know she's one of theirs, but you'd think that if she fell it could be portrayed as personal responsibility and drawing a line under the situation to move on from.
    For a lot of Germans the EU is an article of faith, putting what they see as a Eurosceptic (he isn't) in charge is almost sacrilegious. The fear of being seen as un-European is massive, Laschet is another mindless EU-bot who will fall in line when necessary.
    I think you're reading too much into this. This is about internal German politics, not UvdL or the EU. Basically it's the CDU inner circle supporting one of their own rather than the upstart from the sister party.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Ms. Mc, saw a tiny bit of BBC news the other day, for once. Lots of holy tokenism from the Church of England.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,176

    562,056 new vaccinations registered in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 103,988 1st doses / 345,675 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 3,206 / 50,997
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 14,818 / 17,882
    NI 8,974 / 16,516

    Not bad!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    I've just got our first Alba for Independence leaflet with their candidates on the list in NE Scotland. The first seems to be a guy called Alex Salmond who looks familiar.

    It says "The #Supermajority is the only mandate needed to begin negotiating Scotland's independence as a parliament, rather than just as a party."

    Which seems a little different from the SNP policy. Apparently we don't even need a pesky second referendum after all. Alex is wearing a nice blue tie and shirt but, on balance, I think not.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 732
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    I'm not sure it does.

    The reason why there would need to be a border at the moment if Scotland were to be in the EU but outside the UK is the UK Government position on the type of Brexit it wanted. There's no inevitability about it.

    It does mean that, for Scotland to rejoin the EU without introducing a border with England, it'd require quite significant change to the UK deal with the EU. That's almost certainly not going to happen with this Government. There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    So its not a lie if you assume that rUK are going to rejoin the SM, the customs union and accept all EU regulations in the same timescale as the Scots are applying for membership, that is within the next 10 years? LOL.
    I don't think what Sturgeon said was a lie, no. Do I think Brexit makes it difficult for Sturgeon to achieve the objective of an independent Scotland, in the EU, but with free movement over the English border in the reasonably short term? Clearly it does.

    I'm not a supporter of Scottish independence, and this is clearly another practical problem to throw into a large mix of such problems. I'm just pointing out that the incompatibility isn't insoluble.
    It is one of the clearer examples of why Brexit makes Scottish independence less likely rather than more as was claimed by quite a number of people on this board. The default position in 2014 was that Scotland would get accelerated membership of the EU and therefore there would be no problems with access to either the EU or UK SMs. It was a fantasy of course but I do accept that even although this would not have happened immediately it would have happened at some point.

    Scotland now has to choose between the rUK SM and the EU SM. The former is worth more than 4x the latter but if they choose the former EU membership is simply never going to happen. If they choose the latter Sturgeon was of course lying and that is SNP policy at the present time. So it was a lie. Of course.
    Alba policy is to join EFTA. Single market without the common fisheries policy.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,176
    DavidL said:

    I've just got our first Alba for Independence leaflet with their candidates on the list in NE Scotland. The first seems to be a guy called Alex Salmond who looks familiar.

    It says "The #Supermajority is the only mandate needed to begin negotiating Scotland's independence as a parliament, rather than just as a party."

    Which seems a little different from the SNP policy. Apparently we don't even need a pesky second referendum after all. Alex is wearing a nice blue tie and shirt but, on balance, I think not.

    And to think that they had you down as a 'Maybe'.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    I'm not sure it does.

    The reason why there would need to be a border at the moment if Scotland were to be in the EU but outside the UK is the UK Government position on the type of Brexit it wanted. There's no inevitability about it.

    It does mean that, for Scotland to rejoin the EU without introducing a border with England, it'd require quite significant change to the UK deal with the EU. That's almost certainly not going to happen with this Government. There's every chance of it happening in the medium to long term, though.
    So its not a lie if you assume that rUK are going to rejoin the SM, the customs union and accept all EU regulations in the same timescale as the Scots are applying for membership, that is within the next 10 years? LOL.
    I don't think what Sturgeon said was a lie, no. Do I think Brexit makes it difficult for Sturgeon to achieve the objective of an independent Scotland, in the EU, but with free movement over the English border in the reasonably short term? Clearly it does.

    I'm not a supporter of Scottish independence, and this is clearly another practical problem to throw into a large mix of such problems. I'm just pointing out that the incompatibility isn't insoluble.
    It is one of the clearer examples of why Brexit makes Scottish independence less likely rather than more as was claimed by quite a number of people on this board. The default position in 2014 was that Scotland would get accelerated membership of the EU and therefore there would be no problems with access to either the EU or UK SMs. It was a fantasy of course but I do accept that even although this would not have happened immediately it would have happened at some point.

    Scotland now has to choose between the rUK SM and the EU SM. The former is worth more than 4x the latter but if they choose the former EU membership is simply never going to happen. If they choose the latter Sturgeon was of course lying and that is SNP policy at the present time. So it was a lie. Of course.
    Alba policy is to join EFTA. Single market without the common fisheries policy.
    Doesn't solve the problem with rUK unless they join too and that ship has sailed, got stuck in the Suez canal and then sunk without further trace.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    562,056 new vaccinations registered in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 103,988 1st doses / 345,675 2nd doses
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 3,206 / 50,997
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 14,818 / 17,882
    NI 8,974 / 16,516

    Not bad!
    Yeah, its not bad but I think that we were hoping for 700k towards the end of this week. Still supply limited obviously.
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