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A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform – politicalbetting.com
A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform – politicalbetting.com
At the risk of sounding like Sion Simon soon there will be an election, in which Scottish nationalists will increase their majority.
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Sir Ganga Ram Hospital in Delhi says ventilators are "not working effectively" and the hospital will run out of oxygen in less than an hour. 60 lives are at risk - ANI
BREAKING: 2 New Delhi hospitals treating COVID-19 patients issue SOS, say they're running out of oxygen
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And in the Far East, COVID on the rise.
BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka, Hyogo, and Kyoto due to coronavirus
NEW: Thailand reports 2,070 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
NPIs delay infection; vaccines prevent it (slowly) only NPIs and massive takeup can really crush it
“You have to be very careful about imposing blanket export bans, and you have to look very carefully at the supply chains,” she said.
But...
The EU, she noted, is the world’s biggest exporter of vaccines, yet “from other parts of the world, nothing is exported at all.”
So I think on balance Merkel isn’t especially virtuous in all this.
Interesting perspective, Mr. Thompson.
Vaccine rollout cuts symptomatic infections by up to 90 per cent, real-world data show, leaving coronavirus at controllable ‘endemic’ levels
By Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/22/covid-pandemic-britain/
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/eu-preparing-legal-case-against-astrazeneca-over-vaccine-shortfalls-politico-2021-04-22/
On topic, I admire Philip’s optimism that we would stay on topic btl on anything other than a Brexit or cricket thread.
However, an even better reason for a government that wants Scotland to stay in the union to go for a referendum soon is that it’s unlikely they’ll ever have a better chance of winning it.
Moreover, a second rejection would be fatal to the ‘inevitability’ narrative the SNP are pushing and be calamitous for their already rather shaky reputation for competence.
As Brexit fundamentally altered the constitution of the UK, a Brexit for which Scotland did not vote, I can't see how Westminster can resist the calls for an indyref2 for much longer. It's all very well going down the 'once in a lifetime' mantra but then came Brexit.
Our covid bouncers on the doors of the Emergency Dept and Outpatients have been briefed to ask all attendees about foreign travel by anyone in their household.
I wonder whether his current halo is ephemeral? Like a lot of other people my biggest concern was, and still is, getting out of restrictions safely and returning to life. Right now I really have little or no interest in what Johnson's cronies have been up to, nor in sleaze generally.
But I think that will change.
Once we're no longer obsessing about covid, I will begin to pay more attention to the other affairs of state. Johnson is a scumbag, let's be frank, and his halo could disappear faster than a pineapple on a TSE pizza.
I don't think people should be going abroad on holiday until July.
It is sad though, although possibly true, that the consideration for changing systems (or not) is likely to be based on political advantage and not because it might be the right or wrong thing to do for democratic reasons.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56844220
The chances of becoming infected by Covid fell sharply after a first dose of either the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccines, a UK study has found.
The vaccines worked just as well in the over-75s and those with underlying health conditions, as other people.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and University of Oxford research also found a strong antibody response in all age groups from both jabs.
Everyone showed some response to both vaccines, they said.
The research, contained in two studies which have not yet been peer-reviewed or published, is based on virus tests from 370,000 people in the general UK population - one of the largest to date....
One, is that he will do whatever he thinks is in his own best interests.
Two, because he’s very incompetent he will find a way to cock it all up.
1832 - designed to break the stranglehold of the Tories by eliminating purchased boroughs, and hammering the Radicals by restricting the franchise where it was widest
1867 - done to shaft the Liberals by allowing the Tories to give more seats to the counties
1885 - an attempt to redress this balance
1918 - an extension of the franchise to those who were thought to have contributed most to the war effort, and therefore most likely to vote for Lloyd George, while deliberately disenfranchising e.g. conscientious objectors.
1928 - done at the urging of CCO (despite Churchill’s later lies on the subject) who had seen polling that suggested younger women without families were more conservative than their older counterparts.
Defeat in the first referendum failed to do serious damage to the SNP. If they lost the second one, the campaign for the third would begin immediately. The Scottish Government may be crap, but it has a base of at least 40% of the electorate that has made up its mind that it wants to be rid of the English and it faces a hopelessly divided and utterly woeful collection of opposition parties. They'll win all the subsequent elections, and invent excuses for insisting on more referendums in roughly decennial cycles, until one of them yields the result that they want.
The best outcome of all of this would be for Westminster to allow the referendum and lose it - that would finally deal with the weeping sore of Scottish secessionism, and kick the Labour Party's Zimmer frame away: we could do with an effective opposition down here, and for that we need Labour to waste away and be replaced by a proper successor to the Liberal Party. However, the best outcome for Boris Johnson is to stonewall, so that he doesn't go down in history as the Prime Minister who lost Scotland. So Westminster will stonewall, and the Union will founder on someone else's watch.
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1385137818658353156
https://news.sky.com/story/the-tight-race-for-west-midlands-mayor-could-have-national-significance-this-is-why-12278854
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1385167740240080898
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1384997258496811015
I'm not sure anyone will be really paying attention to sleazy Johnson until after the next general election.
An interesting op-ed in the Guardian this morning from Simon Jenkins in which he argues that Johnson should offer Scotland the single market as a sop to avoid independence, A "Celtic crescent" would be formed where Ireland and Scotland form an expanded NI protocol.
Whilst I don't think the EU would entertain the idea and I don't see how it stops the drive towards self-determination, it does highlight that the current arrangements are utterly unworkable. The Tories succeeded in their "get Brexit done" mission but hideously screwed up the settlement afterwards. We're going to have to find solutions to our unworkable border issues (beyond Philip's preferred UDI from the NI protocol) and that does give an opportunity to renegotiate.
Honestly though I can't see how it makes a difference. Scotland is shackled to an England whose polity seems deranged. The more the government fucks up, the more popular they become with English voters.No wonder people want self-determination. The SNP may have their own issues (...!) but they are OUR issues.
There will be those who say that anything the Scots do is within the context of them having "agreed" to a once in a generation vote so they would effectively have banned themselves from changing their minds.
There are after all plenty of reasons to vote SNP and perhaps people are doing so "safe" in the knowledge that it wouldn't lead to a second Indy vote.
But the arguments that you put forward are I think the more convincing and yes if people vote SNP and win, there should be such a vote.
Indeed, I think that is why Ms Sturgeon is a little cautious about it. Losing 202X would be the end of her, as 2014 was for Salmond.
The interesting thing is what would happen next. Certainly there would be a fundamentalist Independence party, but a substantial body may return to being more conventional Social Democratic party, albeit heavily devolutionist. That might even be SLAB.
And I'm beginning to wonder whether the Coles trip to our family in Thailand later this/early next year might have to be postponed a bit longer. Even though we've both been vaccinated.
But, on the positive side, Mrs C and I are going out today for our first pub lunch of 2021.
This is another example of something so ludicrous you could be forgiven for thinking it was April 1st.
The constitutional settlement is clear in my view (although the courts have the final say). The constitutional settlement is a matter for the Westminster parliament. Votes for another body don’t carry weight in determining whether there should be another vote: it’s just a political club. Otherwise - reductio ad absurbum - we should declare war on Germany because Handforth Parish Council votes for it.
That being said - as I write in my header before the last referendum - the lesson from Ireland is that grudging change doesn’t work. You need to get ahead of the curve, agree a settlement and get democratic buy-in.
The solution is a Royal Commission on Constitutional Reform that puts together a recommendation on how to recast the British state. That should then be put to a vote as a package - and all the constituent countries get to vote on it.
I’d imagine that will take several years to work through and will be complicated. So it neatly punts the problem into the long grass from Boris Johnson’s perspective. But even he gets to do the right thing occasionally, even if by accident.
There is no economic recovery, no boost to fishing or farming or regional investment. Indeed the EU money that used to flood into various regions and sectors has gone and isn't being replaced by government money. As I reported yesterday the winding up of the Dig for Victory scheme to get Brits to pick our harvest means that the waves of foreign workers will continue to come in. "Take back control" and ending free movement was in the minds of so many going to stop foreigners coming here if not send some of them home.
As people start to realise that they're being told to celebrate a box of delights that really only has a dog turd in it, they will turn on the Tories. The red wall hates being lied to and they are being lied to big time. As they start to realise that and the Tories double down, the wall will collapse. However, I don't see a resurgence for Labour as a result - that ship has sailed. Look for indies and other assorted lunatics.
It imposes a land border (the sea border is bad enough) on goods, creates an immigration open door, decreases UK authority over its own land (again, bad enough for NI which has a particularly tricky situation).
Better to have a referendum, or to not have a referendum, than to go for such a delinquent measure.
Ie lockdowns etc
The answer is not to be an ostrich, Charles, but to tackle this head-on as Philip suggests. The former is merely going to fuel independence.
But right now I think he's riding high and will win the next general election.
I have to pull you up on the Handforth Parish council analogy as I did another contributor yesterday. HPC - a fine body as it is - is not a constituent nation with its own legal system. And once democratic consent is gone then it isn't democracy. Yes, the UK will vote to ignore the Scots. But that is not a solution to Scotland no longer wanting to be a constituent nation of the UK, not in the long term.
Federalism was, is and will remain the only solution. It will never happen...
The SNP got 46% of the Constituency vote in 2016 and that was not enough to sweep to Constituency seats.
If they 'only' get 46% again then increased Unionist tactical voting would see them lose constituency seats and their list vote is plunging so they might not make them up there.
The Greens massively underperformed their polling in 2016, they got double digit scores in the polls before limping in with 6.5%. But if they did get even a couple of points increase then the could massively increase their representation.
For Con and Lab their constituency vote of 22%ish is a crucial inflection point. Get above that and they can make gains from the SNP, dip even a little bit below that and they can suffer a bunch of constituency losses.
There is a lot of marginal constituencies in Scotland. People confuse a 23 point vote lead with a dominat position.
Thailand is looking a bit iffy isn't it Mr Cole?
St George wasn't English. He was Greek and appropriated by the nutjob Crusaders.
We're going to forge ahead economically from Brexit with some stellar tax regimes. We're already pulling in international investment. And the more Biden goes big on soaking the rich with tax, the better it gets for the Singapore of the West.
As for the vaccines, well it's obvious to everyone that we're better off out.
So, yep by all means hope Johnson will fall because of sleaze and because he's a scumbag and because he's a sociopathic liar.
But Brexit? Nah.
...
Various countries are looking at government backed electronic currencies, and I can see it is only a matter of time until we shop with whatever currency we feel like. It is a trend that could lead to us having more currencies in the world or a lot fewer.
And “Obviously I’m right and you’re wrong” isn’t a convincing argument
Scotland voted to be part of the Uk demos
The Uk demos voted not to be part of the EU demos
As the economic cost hits home, people will know. What "stellar tax regimes" are you talking about? Singapore-on-Thames isn't happening, indeed we are going to significantly increase corporation tax not slash it as the right wing freemarketeers wanted.
As for "turning against the EU in their droves", what does that have to do with it? I am talking about the EEA, not the EU.
As ydoethur pointed out, electoral reform does normally occur due to partisan interest not the rights or wrongs of it. If Scotland goes then England won't have a Tory majority forever, the parties will reposition themselves and the pendulum will swing such that when Labour enters Downing Street they'll have a majority in the Commons and as such no reason (like Blair 1997) to engage in electoral reform.
But if this gets punted to the long grass, if Labour are in charge but only able to get a minority - and facing the loss of their partners that give them the majority, then its naive to assume only a Referendum will be dealt with.
The 'price' of punting this issue will be steep and not just upsetting the Scots.
Not that I have any aspirations myself...😇
That's the killer. Scotland didn't vote for Brexit. We Brexited. It has completely altered the dynamic of the union.
We have to have another indyref, if the people of Scotland vote by a majority for a party which supports it.
There's nothing else to be argued. The English digging in on this would be untenable morally, intellectually and probably legally.
Let's review that assessment in 1, 3, 5 and 10 years time.
Story from @joncraig: https://news.sky.com/story/number-10-sources-accuse-dominic-cummings-of-leaking-boris-johnsons-texts-with-dyson-and-saudi-crown-prince-12284366
By kicking it into the long grass I'd take that to mean a referendum is denied until after the next General Election at the earliest.
Good point! Saints sort-of went out of fashion in the reformation world. But the Anglican Church, which claims to be both catholic and reformed, as you rightly point out still retains pre-reformation saints.
Like an awful lot of things to do with Anglicanism (homosexuality being another) it's a fudge.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1385486189604610048
The principles of an Indyref were set down in 2014. I don't see them changing. The important point is that Scotland is effectively a single constituency for the vote so every vote counts. This is of course different for the Scottish Parliament where 40 odd percent can give you a majority. It may give you a majority but it does not give you a compelling basis for Indyref2. That requires a majority of Scots to vote for parties committed to that referendum. On current polling that is going to be very close. It is possible that it will be achieved in one category (most likely the constituencies) and not the other. The less clear cut it is the easier it will be for Boris to say no.
And since almost every PB'er has flagged the need for other constitutional changes, the idea that rUK could preserve the status quo in aspic when Scotland (and/or NI) leaves appears to be for the birds.
British finance minister Rishi Sunak told the Bank of England on Monday to look at the case for a new “Britcoin”, or central bank-backed digital currency, aimed at tackling some of the challenges posed by cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.
A BoE-backed digital version of sterling would potentially allow businesses and consumers to hold accounts directly with the bank and to sidestep others when making payments, upending the lenders' role in the financial system.
"We're launching a new taskforce between the Treasury and the Bank of England to coordinate exploratory work on a potential central bank digital currency (CBDC)," Sunak told a financial industry conference.
Soon after, Sunak tweeted the single word "Britcoin" in reply to the finance ministry's announcement of the taskforce.
Other central banks are also looking at whether to set up digital versions of their own currencies, essentially widening access to central bank funds which only commercial banks can use at present. This could speed up domestic and foreign payments and reduce financial stability risks.
China is a front-runner to launch a CBDC. Last week the European Central Bank said it was studying an electronic form of cash to complement banknotes and coins but any launch was still several years away.
The BoE said a digital version of sterling would not replace either physical cash or existing bank accounts.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uk-launches-taskforce-potential-bank-england-digital-currency-sunak-2021-04-19/
Nooshin Razani, one of the authors and an associate professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco, told Slate the true number of instances of outdoor transmission was "probably lower" than 10%.
FWIW I think that the Greens will underperform again. Last time there was at least a nod and a wink that this might not be the worst idea for independence supporters on the list. This time the whole SNP campaign is two votes for the SNP. Its almost as if Sturgeon had anticipated that Alba was coming and wanted to shut that door firmly.
You need a permanent solution.
I’m not interested in partisan politics. What good for Tories or Labour doesn’t really matter.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1385308614378803202?s=20
... Then if Labour get in, they're most likely to do so with SNP controlling Scotland still. So they'll be a minority Government ...
... So then Labour will have to deal with the Scottish issue. But they'll also, with the SNP, control Westminster. They'll be able to change more than just allowing a referendum - if they're facing the lack of a majority and the potential lack of Scottish MPs that allow them to get a majority, then why not change the voting system prior to the referendum?
If on the other hand Scottish independence is resolve by the Tories one way or another this issue never comes up. If the Scottish MPs go then whoever controls Westminster has a majority since there's no major third party. If Labour get in its because they've won a majority like Blair so no need to change the system. If the Scottish MPs stay its because the Scots have for a second time rejected independence, at which point the SNP fracturing (like BQ did after losing the second Quebecois referendum) becomes quite possible.
And which bit of “there’s not else to be argued” rises above mere assertion?
Lets just hope the Scots manage to avoid the racism and lies that Johnson Cummings Farage and Co couldn't.
There needs to be a proper work through of the issues. I’d include the House of Lords and electorate reform in there. And it should take as long as it needs to get it right. But ultimately the new settlement needs democratic consent from all the voters
A vote today does provide immediate clarity. Either the Scots go, in which case that's pretty permanent, or they stay in which case that's two in a row for staying, the "but Brexit" argument is over, Sturgeon would resign and the SNP will probably fracture into squabbling elements as happened after the second Quebec referendum.
The only way to keep things permanent is to keep a majority of the country happy every five years when they vote.
I am hoping to go further afield in 2022.