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A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Final Electoral Commission stats show the Lib Dems spent *more* at the 2019 election than Labour. Lot of spending also by Brexit party. In contrast, the Greens are on a total shoestring.

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1385538273028804610?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Final Electoral Commission stats show the Lib Dems spent *more* at the 2019 election than Labour. Lot of spending also by Brexit party. In contrast, the Greens are on a total shoestring.

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1385538273028804610?s=20

    Complete the sentence:

    That has to be the worst value since [blank]
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Water under the bridge for me. My Scottish Parliament votes went in last week. More significantly got my second AZ jag on Weds, and no negative reaction unlike the first one. Even more significantly my sister delving into ancestry sites has discovered that our parents' marriage was my father's second, totally unbeknown to us.

    You got an Az Jag? Wow, are they giving those away as an incentive? That should persuade a few anti-vaxxers.
    Prescott's not the only two jags around.

    He wouldn't have put up with waiting three months for his second Jag
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    I think that's a fair assessment.
    She has always reminded me of a modern day Joan of Arc. Utterly committed in her beliefs to the point of, in my view, foolish fanaticism, but somehow I get the impression that there is great deal of manipulation of her going on in the background and not always to her, or our, benefit.
    Yes, that's almost certain.

    For one thing, the sheer volume of correspondence and media enquiries she gets from her profile will mean she has to have help with its management.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,201
    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    UK might get 7.5% of its electricity from Morocco within a decade...

    Submarine cable to connect 10.5 GW wind-solar complex in Morocco to the UK grid
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/22/submarine-cable-to-connect-10-5-gw-wind-solar-complex-in-morocco-to-the-uk-grid/

    Interconnects across continents - made feasible by the extremely low price of the cheapest renewables at source (a recent deal is Saudi Arabia was done for supply at 1 US cent per kWh) - make intermittent renewables far less intermittent.

    The key stat in that article is;

    “Cable losses along the entire transmission line are estimated between 10 and 12%”

    I wonder what the losses would be for a HVDC cable from Iceland? Tapping their geothermal would make a lot of sense.
    The estimate used to be around 3.5% per 1000 km, I think - but it appears to have dropped to just a bit over 3%.
    I think there's a similar scheme in early development for Australia-Singapore.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    The thing I don't understand, is why I'm supposed to listen to her. She has no qualifications, yet (as I understand it) in her chosen field.

    It's a bit like Angeline Jolie as a UN special Ambassador - publicising an issue, fine.

    For actual knowledge/information I would be listening to Dr. Hoesung Lee etc.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Why is the independent automatically put to the bottom of the list?
    It is alphabetic , therefore UK is at the end
    Someone else who can’t read.
    Whisper: the three Rs are not his strength! It's what gets him so angry!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Obviously the top one. Is this a trick question?
    I'd vote for the top one TBH.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    edited April 2021
    PJH said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning everyone. How the English-dominated UK might break up is a slightly odd topic for St Georges Day. Scotland was, for years, the only country which joined the British Empire/Commonwealth voluntarily. Although I seem to recall money changed hands.

    And I'm beginning to wonder whether the Coles trip to our family in Thailand later this/early next year might have to be postponed a bit longer. Even though we've both been vaccinated.

    But, on the positive side, Mrs C and I are going out today for our first pub lunch of 2021.


    Thailand is looking a bit iffy isn't it Mr Cole? :(

    St George wasn't English. He was Greek and appropriated by the nutjob Crusaders.
    On the subject of Saints, I do find it odd that the Anglican Church seems to recognise pre-reformation Catholic saints (though was St George Orthodox?) but has no mechanism to beatify new saints. Are there any post reformation Anglican Saints? If not, why not? Has the Church lost God's favour?

    Not that I have any aspirations myself...😇
    What about King Charles the Martyr? http://skcm.org/

    There are a few anglican churches dedicated to him, one in Potters Bar - https://kcm-church.org.uk/
    My probably oversimplified understanding is this:

    In the early days of the church Saints were more or less declared by local acclamation, i.e. anyone with a good enough reputation might be a Saint. Graudally it became regularised in the Western Church at least that only the Pope could declare a Saint. So after the Reformation, not having a Pope, the Anglican Church had no mechanism to declare a Saint. This didn't bother the protestant reformers much.

    However, the rung below 'Beatus' (or 'Blessed') can be declared by the local diocesan bishop, and this is what has happened to King Charles the Martyr. I notice the rubric on the Book of Common Prayer calls his feast day as 'Blessed King Charles the Martyr' not Saint. A quick Google didn't throw up how exactly he was so raised, but I do remember reading an article explaining why he was a Beatus along the lines I've described. I don't think it's something that has happened often and I can't think of any others, maybe there are a few. Certainly other people are observed in the Calendar without titles, e.g. Cranmer, Wilberforce so effectively are the equivalent of saints in the old way without a capital S.
    There are many Celtic saints whose sanctity is lost in the mists etc, and some of whom may in fact have been local pagan gods whose good deeds were appropriated by the early Church.

    George of course was Middle Eastern and his veneration was indeed as a result of the Crusades. Prior to that the patron saint of England was a Suffolk lad, Edmund the Martyr, King of the Angles, from whom Bury St Edmunds derives its name.

    And yes, Thailand is getting into Covid problems. My granddaughters there are now being home schooled, which causes difficulties for my son, as his wife's English isn't good enough to teach the youngest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited April 2021
    I dont want a referendum.

    I can believe a formal one technically requires Westminster consent.

    But one cannot reasonably be denied if parties who want one win, so it must happen when the nationalists, of all stripes, vote for one.

    I think voting reform is a good idea, and even if people disagree, a major constitutional change to the Union would be the right time to consider a lot if things afresh, as so much will, regrettably, have changed.

    But never give up. Potential inevitability is no reason to stop the fight.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Amateurs......


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    She's said herself she suffers from this and I'm using evidence of her own words and actions in public.

    Of course, I can't "prove" that her social media team wrote the tweets for her approval but this is commonplace amongst high profile tweeters. Even Andrew Adonis has helpers doing some of his.
    Someone having a media team is not quite the same thing as that person being controlled by dark and mysterious forces.
    Yes, but I don't see why this is so contentious.

    I'm just saying that on the balance of evidence before us I don't believe she drafts her witty tweets.

    She may well approve them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448

    Final Electoral Commission stats show the Lib Dems spent *more* at the 2019 election than Labour. Lot of spending also by Brexit party. In contrast, the Greens are on a total shoestring.

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1385538273028804610?s=20

    Complete the sentence:

    That has to be the worst value since [blank]
    1950, I would think! Disastrous.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
    Off-topic but a personal word of thanks to you @DavidL re your advice about the dispute I had. Looks as though it is all sorted.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Obviously the top one. Is this a trick question?
    I'd vote for the top one TBH.
    £100 million is heaps of money tbh
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Obviously the top one. Is this a trick question?
    I like the offer that if you put your cross in there you could save £100 000 000 yearly. I wasn't aware my wife was spending that amount, but if we can save it just by putting an X in a box, why not?
    LOL

    I was always interested in the fact that Saddam Hussein's wife had come back from a shopping trip to Paris, just before the invasion of Kuwait....

    "You spent *how* much in the Place Vendôme? I'll have to steal a whole country to pay for that...."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,873

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    There are strong rumours that things are not happy chez Sturgeon .

    We are not allowed to talk about Superinjunctions
    Isn't the biggest problem with superinjunctions is that now everyone knows they exist, they can be falsely referred to in order to back up any rumour?

    Now the lack of evidence for any farfetched charge against (say) Sturgeon or Boris or even OGH becomes evidence of a superinjunction to suppress the non-existent evidence, and then the presumed existence of the superinjunction becomes itself evidence of whatever the initial charge was.
    What I don't understand is how OGH (or one of his Moderating elves) is supposed to know his guests are breaching a superinjunction if he is not supposed to know it exists in the first place. Seems to breach basic justice.
    Whatever happened to the principle that justice must be seen to be done?
    Is that an agreement or disagreement? I'm so confused by this superinjunction notion that I honestly can't work it out!

    Also - if there is one under English law then what about Scotland? Or NI?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    The thing I don't understand, is why I'm supposed to listen to her. She has no qualifications, yet (as I understand it) in her chosen field.

    It's a bit like Angeline Jolie as a UN special Ambassador - publicising an issue, fine.

    For actual knowledge/information I would be listening to Dr. Hoesung Lee etc.
    Indeed. Then again, someone once said "we have had enough of experts" (or words to that effect), and while it can be argued about what he actually meant on that, it is human nature that many people would rather listen to someone who has become a celeb or "influencer" than those that actually have training and experience in the subject.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Very interesting article by @Philip_Thompson.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    edited April 2021
    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland, Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited April 2021

    Mr. Thompson, yeah, I like SG-1 a lot, and share your concerns regarding a new series being poor (as seems to happen with lots of modern takes on classic sci-fi). But we shall see.

    What's this? I loved SG-1, it still holds up. The military must have agreed given the cameos from serving chief officers. Had not heard any news.

    I'm more curious how the planned Foundation series will work. Original trilogy not exactly set up for year on year narrative with the same characters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Obviously the top one. Is this a trick question?
    I like the offer that if you put your cross in there you could save £100 000 000 yearly. I wasn't aware my wife was spending that amount, but if we can save it just by putting an X in a box, why not?
    So you don't read your credit card bills either?

    Actually £100m sounds extremely conservative, especially if you consider the economic damage the Scottish Parliament inflicts.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    There are strong rumours that things are not happy chez Sturgeon .

    We are not allowed to talk about Superinjunctions
    Isn't the biggest problem with superinjunctions is that now everyone knows they exist, they can be falsely referred to in order to back up any rumour?

    Now the lack of evidence for any farfetched charge against (say) Sturgeon or Boris or even OGH becomes evidence of a superinjunction to suppress the non-existent evidence, and then the presumed existence of the superinjunction becomes itself evidence of whatever the initial charge was.
    What I don't understand is how OGH (or one of his Moderating elves) is supposed to know his guests are breaching a superinjunction if he is not supposed to know it exists in the first place. Seems to breach basic justice.
    Whatever happened to the principle that justice must be seen to be done?
    Is that an agreement or disagreement? I'm so confused by this superinjunction notion that I honestly can't work it out!

    Also - if there is one under English law then what about Scotland? Or NI?
    I'm agreeing with you.

    I don't think superinjunctions should be legal. They're justice unseen.

    Punish people for breaking injunctions, fair enough, but to have a shadowy cabal of rulings that can't be seen - I abhor that.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland, Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    that is an interesting manoeuvre
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    edited April 2021

    Final Electoral Commission stats show the Lib Dems spent *more* at the 2019 election than Labour. Lot of spending also by Brexit party. In contrast, the Greens are on a total shoestring.

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1385538273028804610?s=20

    Complete the sentence:

    That has to be the worst value since [blank]
    Darien? (since we are on a Scottish thread)

    Actually, more recently, "since a Scottish Minister got taken out for a free lunch and signed £500m of guarantees for Mr Gupta with no civil service involvement."
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    Looks a bit like a fishing line, that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,542
    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland, Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    If they can get the legalities right that sounds like a very sensible solution for all sides. So I doubt it will ever happen :(
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    The thing I don't understand, is why I'm supposed to listen to her. She has no qualifications, yet (as I understand it) in her chosen field.

    It's a bit like Angeline Jolie as a UN special Ambassador - publicising an issue, fine.

    For actual knowledge/information I would be listening to Dr. Hoesung Lee etc.
    Indeed. Then again, someone once said "we have had enough of experts" (or words to that effect), and while it can be argued about what he actually meant on that, it is human nature that many people would rather listen to someone who has become a celeb or "influencer" than those that actually have training and experience in the subject.
    What is sometime missed in that story was that Gove had had a briefing, not long before, by an expert on education.

    Who said that any reform of education was wrong and that, simply, the budget should be vastly increased. When asked, couldn't say what the extra money would be used for, and refused to quantify the improvements that the extra money would bring.

    I presume the expert in question is now the head of OFSTED.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    I think the various PO chairs and CE's should;d be in Court to hear what the judges have to say!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited April 2021
    Basically Labour are stuck almost forever around 35%, that seems to be the floor for the time being, which is an improvement on 2019.

    2017 repeat is within reach, 40% should be doable with the right strategy.

    Based on voteshare - I know not always a great measure - Labour are actually in the last 16 years or so, historically reasonably popular. It's just that the Tories are even more popular.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,542

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    Yep I listened to the excellent series about the whole scandal on Radio 4 last year. There are some people high up in the system who I genuinely believe should be in jail for the way they have handled this. People who were completely innocent have died because of this scandal and many more have had their lives ruined.

    No one will be held accountable though.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland, Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    Interesting 70% support in the Republic for establishing an Irish NHS.

    Envy of the world.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351

    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    Looks a bit like a fishing line, that.
    "In the event of a United Ireland, I (and all the other members of the Dail) would like to ensure that the various cut-throats and scumbags in the NI Assembly don't turn up in Dublin"
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Thompson, yeah, I like SG-1 a lot, and share your concerns regarding a new series being poor (as seems to happen with lots of modern takes on classic sci-fi). But we shall see.

    What's this? I loved SG-1, it still holds up. The military must have agreed given the cameos from serving chief officers. Had not heard any news.

    I'm more curious how the planned Foundation series will work. Original trilogy not exactly set up for year on year narrative with the same characters.
    The United States Air Force loved the show so much they made Richard Dean Anderson an honorary Brigadier General.

    https://www.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2000588556/
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,746
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Obviously the top one. Is this a trick question?
    Does the Abolish party have history or was it cobbled together quickly in the last couple of weeks by Nicola Sturgeon a Salmond hater to keep Alba off the top of the list?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland, Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    If they can get the legalities right that sounds like a very sensible solution for all sides. So I doubt it will ever happen :(
    I know I quoted it fairly recently, but from "1066 and all that":

    'Gladstone spent his declining years trying to guess the answer to the Irish question; unfortunately, whenever he was getting warm, the Irish secretly changed the question.’
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited April 2021

    Utterly OT, but the rumoured fourth Stargate series might still be happening. Just thought it worth mentioning:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stargate#Untitled_Fourth_Stargate_Television_Series

    Small note: for those of you who read any Sir Edric books, the character of Dog was partly based on Teal'c.

    I would love to see this come to fruition, but don't have high hopes either that it will ever see the light of day, or that it will live up to the hype.

    Stargate was a great movie and SG1 was one of the greatest Sci Fi series of all time, but the spin offs especially Universe were rather underwhelming.

    Children of the Gods has to be in my opinion one of the best TV pilots of all time, not just in Sci Fi, but Universe was so bland I didn't make it through the first season and I can barely remember much of it.
    They don't make many network prime time show pilots with full frontal nudity these days, it's true.

    Atlantis was Ok, but I didn't get through Universe.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351

    DavidL said:

    Convicted Post Office workers have names cleared
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56859357

    This has taken an appalling amount of time and destroyed many lives. Unforgivable.
    Did we have a thread on this Post Office scandal some time ago, possibly from @Cyclefree, or have I overdone the communion wine again?
    It is an outrage. Staggering. A monumental miscarriage of justice that shames our system.
    Yep I listened to the excellent series about the whole scandal on Radio 4 last year. There are some people high up in the system who I genuinely believe should be in jail for the way they have handled this. People who were completely innocent have died because of this scandal and many more have had their lives ruined.

    No one will be held accountable though.
    What is interesting is the attitude.

    Just as with Rotherham, the idea that there should be any sanction against permanent officials who made policy decisions is regarded as immoral.

    "But x is a deeply knowledgeable career professional, and she has a right to move to a better job after completely failing in the last one.:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Obviously the top one. Is this a trick question?
    Does the Abolish party have history or was it cobbled together quickly in the last couple of weeks by Nicola Sturgeon a Salmond hater to keep Alba off the top of the list?
    I think that they have been around for a while. Don't trouble to scorers much.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,542

    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland, Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    If they can get the legalities right that sounds like a very sensible solution for all sides. So I doubt it will ever happen :(
    I know I quoted it fairly recently, but from "1066 and all that":

    'Gladstone spent his declining years trying to guess the answer to the Irish question; unfortunately, whenever he was getting warm, the Irish secretly changed the question.’
    Oh I do have to go back and reread that book. I have forgotten everything about it except it made me laugh out load many times when I first read it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    One other point on electoral reform - I think some sort of PR system is vital for the future of the Union.

    With some sort of PR, if the SNP receive roughly half the vote they will have roughly half the Scottish MPs - and so the other half of Scottish MPs will still have a chance of having their voice heard.

    At present FPTP can deliver the overwhelming majority of MPs from Scotland to the SNP, and that makes it easier for them to create a Scotland versus Westminster narrative.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    edited April 2021
    Deleted.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Why is the independent automatically put to the bottom of the list?
    We don't like Independence her in Scotland.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland, Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    If they can get the legalities right that sounds like a very sensible solution for all sides. So I doubt it will ever happen :(
    I know I quoted it fairly recently, but from "1066 and all that":

    'Gladstone spent his declining years trying to guess the answer to the Irish question; unfortunately, whenever he was getting warm, the Irish secretly changed the question.’
    Oh I do have to go back and reread that book. I have forgotten everything about it except it made me laugh out load many times when I first read it.
    Indeed. I think I should do a reread. That is one of my favourite quotes from it (as I am part Irish). My other favourite was (confess I just looked it up and cut and pasted):

    'Henry II, however, exclaimed to some of his Knights one day, `Who will rid me of this Chesterton beast? ' Whereupon the Knights pursued Belloc and murdered him in the organ at Canterbury Cathedral. Belloc was therefore made a Saint and the Knights came to be called the Canterbury Pilgrims.'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Thompson, yeah, I like SG-1 a lot, and share your concerns regarding a new series being poor (as seems to happen with lots of modern takes on classic sci-fi). But we shall see.

    What's this? I loved SG-1, it still holds up. The military must have agreed given the cameos from serving chief officers. Had not heard any news.

    I'm more curious how the planned Foundation series will work. Original trilogy not exactly set up for year on year narrative with the same characters.
    The United States Air Force loved the show so much they made Richard Dean Anderson an honorary Brigadier General.

    https://www.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2000588556/
    It showed the US Airforce, alone among the armed forces, defending multiple galaxies, whilst its officers nobly fought off civilian agency and political interference, of course they loved it.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Basically Labour are stuck almost forever around 35%, that seems to be the floor for the time being, which is an improvement on 2019.

    2017 repeat is within reach, 40% should be doable with the right strategy.

    Based on voteshare - I know not always a great measure - Labour are actually in the last 16 years or so, historically reasonably popular. It's just that the Tories are even more popular.

    Voteshare, my dear fellow, is one thing. Turnout, especially in local elections, quite another.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    I hear we live in a one party state these days. Can anyone tell me which fcuking one it is to make this voting lark easier?


    Obviously the top one. Is this a trick question?
    Does the Abolish party have history or was it cobbled together quickly in the last couple of weeks by Nicola Sturgeon a Salmond hater to keep Alba off the top of the list?
    Aardvarks For Caledonia had their application declined by the Scottish Electoral Commission
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
    It won't be cost free, that kind of monetary stimulus is going to have a huge effect on asset price inflation which will take at least five years to unwind. It's far from free as we have seen since 2008, QE has a real cost of pricing young people out of housing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    They do seem determined to make Brexit look positive by any means necessary.

    They really could have just STFU and tried to change the conversation, but no keep highlighting their failures.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,801
    Mr. kle4, I heard it a little while ago and a trending Twitter topic with a similar name reminded me to check.

    I quite liked the Universe idea but the darker take jarred somewhat with the general feel of Stargate. I like grim and gritty realism but it doesn't gel well, I think, with this particular franchise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    HYUFD said:

    Irish PM Michael Martin says even if there ever was a United Ireland Dublin would retain the Northern Ireland Assembly for Northern Irish domestic policy and just take the lead on external matters with UK input too

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56845676

    Looks a bit like a fishing line, that.
    "In the event of a United Ireland, I (and all the other members of the Dail) would like to ensure that the various cut-throats and scumbags in the NI Assembly don't turn up in Dublin"
    They're no fools, that's for sure.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
    It won't be cost free, that kind of monetary stimulus is going to have a huge effect on asset price inflation which will take at least five years to unwind. It's far from free as we have seen since 2008, QE has a real cost of pricing young people out of housing.
    Asset inflation but no general inflation for goods, services or wages? How does that work exactly?
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    I think that's a fair assessment.
    She has always reminded me of a modern day Joan of Arc. Utterly committed in her beliefs to the point of, in my view, foolish fanaticism, but somehow I get the impression that there is great deal of manipulation of her going on in the background and not always to her, or our, benefit.
    Indeed. I don't know why we have to be subjected to the committed beliefs of a 16 year old on any topic let alone one that is extremely complex with implications on society and economics way beyond her ability to understand or appreciate them.

    That the media (I'm looking at you BBC) jumps on this bandwagon without investigating and highlighting what is obvious PR manipulation is yet another example of the desperately poor journalism we have to put up with these days.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Are we sure these same people weren't behind the ESL?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    HYUFD said:

    There may be a nationalist majority in May but that does not mean there will be an SNP majority, indeed on the Comres poll yesterday the SNP would win only 62 MSPs, not only short of the 65 they need for a Holyrood majority but even below the 63 they won in 2016 before Brexit. If that was to be the case there would clearly be no mandate at all for an indyref2 and the UK Tory government would correctly refuse such a legal indyref2.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    Even if Sturgeon went ahead and held one anyway as there was still a Nationalist majority combining SNP, Green and Alba MSPs Boris and the UK government would correctly ignore the result and respect the 2014 once in a generation vote.

    It is also a myth to say Scots want a vote immediately, Yougov has found in its latest Scottish poll this month for example that 54% of Scots oppose an indyref2 this year, 55% of Scots oppose an indyref2 next year and 49% of Scots oppose an indyref2 before 2023 to just 34% in favour. Scots do back an indyref2 in the next 5 years by 44% to 40% but that is only a slim margin and would take us past the next UK general election in 2024 when it could be a decision for a PM Starmer anyway.
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gat47c3kha/TimesResults_Scotland_210420_W.pdf

    If that were to be the case and Starmer then introduced PR so be it, I have no great love for FPTP and voted for AV in 2011 as Australia already has. Even if a future Labour government introduced full PR as Germany, New Zealand, Spain and Italy already have that would not bother me either. If the right of the Tories went to Reform UK and UKIP and the left of Labour went to the Greens and started a new Corbynite party as those minor parties would be more likely to win MPs under PR so be it. It would be more representative of votes cast. However it would actually make centrist governments and coalitions more likely as any government would need to win over 50% of the vote, the only one of our governments to do since the war was the 2010-2015 coalition government which won 59% in 2010 (36% for the Cameron Tories and 23% for Clegg's LDs) and that was a pretty competent government overall.

    An interestingly more nuanced take.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,201
    Oxford continues to disappoint @TheScreamingEagles ...

    Oxford Malaria vaccine proves highly effective in Burkina Faso trial
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/23/oxford-malaria-vaccine-proves-highly-effective-in-burkina-faso-trial
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,201
    And a good account of the war in Ukraine.
    https://coffeeordie.com/ukraine-war-fighting-for-us/
  • @HYUFD is by far the most interesting poster on this board these days.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2021
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
    It won't be cost free, that kind of monetary stimulus is going to have a huge effect on asset price inflation which will take at least five years to unwind. It's far from free as we have seen since 2008, QE has a real cost of pricing young people out of housing.
    Asset inflation but no general inflation for goods, services or wages? How does that work exactly?
    Plus houses haven't wildly inflated, price/income ratios are no higher now than they were 14 years despite zero interest rates and hundreds of billions in QE.

    I think QE has prevented Japanese style deflation (and a fall in house prices etc) rather than increased them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    One other point on electoral reform - I think some sort of PR system is vital for the future of the Union.

    With some sort of PR, if the SNP receive roughly half the vote they will have roughly half the Scottish MPs - and so the other half of Scottish MPs will still have a chance of having their voice heard.

    At present FPTP can deliver the overwhelming majority of MPs from Scotland to the SNP, and that makes it easier for them to create a Scotland versus Westminster narrative.

    You could say the same applies equally to Manchester and Essex for example.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    edited April 2021
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
    It won't be cost free, that kind of monetary stimulus is going to have a huge effect on asset price inflation which will take at least five years to unwind. It's far from free as we have seen since 2008, QE has a real cost of pricing young people out of housing.
    Asset inflation but no general inflation for goods, services or wages? How does that work exactly?
    Well it's not just asset price inflation, it will be all the others except pay rises as companies will try and hold wages down to save money. Again, this hurts young people the most as companies will just lower starting salaries.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    Wales 1sts 14,818 2nds 17,882

    Moves up to a 73 day gap
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    ridaligo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    I think that's a fair assessment.
    She has always reminded me of a modern day Joan of Arc. Utterly committed in her beliefs to the point of, in my view, foolish fanaticism, but somehow I get the impression that there is great deal of manipulation of her going on in the background and not always to her, or our, benefit.
    Indeed. I don't know why we have to be subjected to the committed beliefs of a 16 year old on any topic let alone one that is extremely complex with implications on society and economics way beyond her ability to understand or appreciate them.

    That the media (I'm looking at you BBC) jumps on this bandwagon without investigating and highlighting what is obvious PR manipulation is yet another example of the desperately poor journalism we have to put up with these days.
    i find her really irritating, and I mean REALLY irritating. However, I also find Nigel Farage irritating, Vladimir Putin frightening and Alex Salmond utterly repulsive. Unfortunately the BBC still needs to report on all these people and is not responsible for their existence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    @HYUFD is by far the most interesting poster on this board these days.

    Take that, everyone!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    In March, Labour used a speech to a posh London think tank to attack “faux flag-waving.”

    Under intense pressure in the Hartlepool by-election, this is their latest leaflet, posted through doors yesterday.. (the wrong day.)


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1385550875737870338?s=20
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,920
    ridaligo said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Anyone hear Johnson at the climate conference yesterday.......

    "This is not all about a green act ...of ...of ...of ...of bunny hugging or however you want to put it ...not that there's anything wrong with bunny hugging..."

    Was he drunk?

    Greta show’s encouraging signs of a nicely sardonic wit.
    https://twitter.com/susanprice4/status/1385348132272328704?s=21
    Greta has a pretty acute form of Asperger's syndrome, by her own admission she only talks when she feels it is essential, and isn't exactly renowned for her sense of humour in person. Wit requires a complex grasp of social dynamics, self-reflection, timing and irony.

    It's her social media team. She's a brand now.
    I am not a fan of the publicity seeking Ms Thunberg, but it is not correct to suggest people with Asperberger's are not humorous or witty, it really depends on their focus.
    But, for the acute form that Greta has - she's publicly known for impassioned or even angry delivery of a quasi-religious message - then I doubt it.
    .
    Without wishing to be uber-PC, I am not sure everything that you and I dislike about her can be put down to her Aspergers. I think she is just a very annoying person who has been given an in toxifying amount of publicity at an age when she is unable to deal with it with humility.
    I think that's a fair assessment.
    She has always reminded me of a modern day Joan of Arc. Utterly committed in her beliefs to the point of, in my view, foolish fanaticism, but somehow I get the impression that there is great deal of manipulation of her going on in the background and not always to her, or our, benefit.
    Indeed. I don't know why we have to be subjected to the committed beliefs of a 16 year old on any topic let alone one that is extremely complex with implications on society and economics way beyond her ability to understand or appreciate them.

    That the media (I'm looking at you BBC) jumps on this bandwagon without investigating and highlighting what is obvious PR manipulation is yet another example of the desperately poor journalism we have to put up with these days.
    That was Mr Putin's take as well, iirc.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
    It won't be cost free, that kind of monetary stimulus is going to have a huge effect on asset price inflation which will take at least five years to unwind. It's far from free as we have seen since 2008, QE has a real cost of pricing young people out of housing.
    Asset inflation but no general inflation for goods, services or wages? How does that work exactly?
    Plus houses haven't wildly inflated, price/income ratios are no higher now than they were 14 years despite zero interest rates and hundreds of billions in QE.

    I think QE has prevented Japanese style deflation (and a fall in house prices etc) rather than increased them.
    Eldest Granddaughter and her boyfriend, who are trying to buy a house in Leeds would somewhat disagree with one the first point. Wildly inflated... not yet, time will tell. Inflated. Definitely.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    By the same token I'd imagine our ex partners are delighted to see the back of us.

    If this site is anything to judge by our ill will and competitiveness towards the EU is an embarrassment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Are we sure these same people weren't behind the ESL?
    Oh that's harsh. I was much nicer.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,873
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Thompson, yeah, I like SG-1 a lot, and share your concerns regarding a new series being poor (as seems to happen with lots of modern takes on classic sci-fi). But we shall see.

    What's this? I loved SG-1, it still holds up. The military must have agreed given the cameos from serving chief officers. Had not heard any news.

    I'm more curious how the planned Foundation series will work. Original trilogy not exactly set up for year on year narrative with the same characters.
    The United States Air Force loved the show so much they made Richard Dean Anderson an honorary Brigadier General.

    https://www.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2000588556/
    It showed the US Airforce, alone among the armed forces, defending multiple galaxies, whilst its officers nobly fought off civilian agency and political interference, of course they loved it.
    What about the real enemies, the US Army and Navy?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
    It won't be cost free, that kind of monetary stimulus is going to have a huge effect on asset price inflation which will take at least five years to unwind. It's far from free as we have seen since 2008, QE has a real cost of pricing young people out of housing.
    Asset inflation but no general inflation for goods, services or wages? How does that work exactly?
    Plus houses haven't wildly inflated, price/income ratios are no higher now than they were 14 years despite zero interest rates and hundreds of billions in QE.

    I think QE has prevented Japanese style deflation (and a fall in house prices etc) rather than increased them.
    Eldest Granddaughter and her boyfriend, who are trying to buy a house in Leeds would somewhat disagree with one the first point. Wildly inflated... not yet, time will tell. Inflated. Definitely.
    The thing is the price/income ratio of the housing market inflated 1997-2007 pre-QE, not post-QE.

    Its strange. If zero interest rates and QE were triggering inflation then prices should be considerably higher but they're not.

    The only rational explanation to me is that there are counteracting deflationary forces. The alternative is that economics as we know it is broken.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,873

    One other point on electoral reform - I think some sort of PR system is vital for the future of the Union.

    With some sort of PR, if the SNP receive roughly half the vote they will have roughly half the Scottish MPs - and so the other half of Scottish MPs will still have a chance of having their voice heard.

    At present FPTP can deliver the overwhelming majority of MPs from Scotland to the SNP, and that makes it easier for them to create a Scotland versus Westminster narrative.

    The SNP are well aware of that. They've been calling for Westminster voting reform for many years.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    By the same token I'd imagine our ex partners are delighted to see the back of us.

    If this site is anything to judge by our ill will and competitiveness towards the EU is an embarrassment.
    That you think "competitiveness" is a bad thing sums up everything that is broken about the European Union and its ardent supporters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    There may be a nationalist majority in May but that does not mean there will be an SNP majority, indeed on the Comres poll yesterday the SNP would win only 62 MSPs, not only short of the 65 they need for a Holyrood majority but even below the 63 they won in 2016 before Brexit. If that was to be the case there would clearly be no mandate at all for an indyref2 and the UK Tory government would correctly refuse such a legal indyref2.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    Even if Sturgeon went ahead and held one anyway as there was still a Nationalist majority combining SNP, Green and Alba MSPs Boris and the UK government would correctly ignore the result and respect the 2014 once in a generation vote.

    It is also a myth to say Scots want a vote immediately, Yougov has found in its latest Scottish poll this month for example that 54% of Scots oppose an indyref2 this year, 55% of Scots oppose an indyref2 next year and 49% of Scots oppose an indyref2 before 2023 to just 34% in favour. Scots do back an indyref2 in the next 5 years by 44% to 40% but that is only a slim margin and would take us past the next UK general election in 2024 when it could be a decision for a PM Starmer anyway.
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gat47c3kha/TimesResults_Scotland_210420_W.pdf

    If that were to be the case and Starmer then introduced PR so be it, I have no great love for FPTP and voted for AV in 2011 as Australia already has. Even if a future Labour government introduced full PR as Germany, New Zealand, Spain and Italy already have that would not bother me either. If the right of the Tories went to Reform UK and UKIP and the left of Labour went to the Greens and started a new Corbynite party as those minor parties would be more likely to win MPs under PR so be it. It would be more representative of votes cast. However it would actually make centrist governments and coalitions more likely as any government would need to win over 50% of the vote, the only one of our governments to do since the war was the 2010-2015 coalition government which won 59% in 2010 (36% for the Cameron Tories and 23% for Clegg's LDs) and that was a pretty competent government overall.

    An interestingly more nuanced take.
    Yes but unfortunately it is not the way that a representative democracy works. If people vote for the SNP, Alba or the little green helpers they are voting for a world of pain for Scotland at the time that the leaders of these parties choose. The electorate no longer have control of the process. The only way to stop this damage is to ensure that those so committed do not have a majority.

    Interestingly, this morning I got a leaflet from the SNP saying the referendum would happen "when the Covid emergency was over". Clearly the argument that this is the last thing Scotland needs right now has been causing concern in the focus groups. But people really need to think about what is at stake here before they cast their votes.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    They do seem determined to make Brexit look positive by any means necessary.

    They really could have just STFU and tried to change the conversation, but no keep highlighting their failures.
    I sometimes think that the EU only worked when the UK was able to point out that they were being muppets and the Germans and Dutch would quietly back us up whilst letting us take all the flack for not being communitaire enough. They need to recalibrate how they are going to make rational decisions now.

    On the positive side there will be more pharmaceutical investment in the UK as a result of this nonsense.
    Hmmm, a sweeping statement that is almost certainly (sadly) wrong. No CEO of a pharma company will likely make a decision based on this regarding investment. They might say so for leverage, but it would be way down their list of priorities. CEOs of pharma companies make decisions on rational shareholder value propositions, not nationalistic sabre rattling. If there is any truth in what you say, then it would need to counterbalance the massive disbenefit to UK based pharma that Brexit has given.

    Anyway, it was nice to discuss Scottish matters, rather than the EU for once, interspersed with occasional silliness and concern for Malcolmg's aeronautical sexual predilections/ fantasies. Before we go down the EU/Brexit rabbit hole I must say adieu, and have a good weekend.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    By the same token I'd imagine our ex partners are delighted to see the back of us.

    If this site is anything to judge by our ill will and competitiveness towards the EU is an embarrassment.
    That you think "competitiveness" is a bad thing sums up everything that is broken about the European Union and its ardent supporters.
    Should we compete on how many deaths the other team has?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856

    “nobody in the SNP wants to see a border between Scotland and England” says Sturgeon

    that is obviously incompatible with anybody in the SNP saying they want an independent Scotland to join the EU

    which makes her statement a straightforward lie, surely?


    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1385551389775077385?s=20

    Surely the answer to that question is found in the words "says Sturgeon".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    By the same token I'd imagine our ex partners are delighted to see the back of us.

    If this site is anything to judge by our ill will and competitiveness towards the EU is an embarrassment.
    Well everybody is happy then. Which is nice.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    By the same token I'd imagine our ex partners are delighted to see the back of us.

    If this site is anything to judge by our ill will and competitiveness towards the EU is an embarrassment.
    That you think "competitiveness" is a bad thing sums up everything that is broken about the European Union and its ardent supporters.
    Should we compete on how many deaths the other team has?
    In a way, yes.

    We should compete to be the best version of ourselves we can be - and strive to learn from each other on how to improve things.

    What that shows is the UK was hit hard twice, once at the beginning when not much was known, and once by the evolution of Kent Covid - but within a year of the pandemic starting there were now no excess deaths in this country which sadly isn't the case in other countries.

    Competition doesn't mean we want others to fail. Hopefully other nations can learn from the UK's success and catch up with us in eliminating ongoing deaths like we have done. Don't you agree with that?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    They do seem determined to make Brexit look positive by any means necessary.

    They really could have just STFU and tried to change the conversation, but no keep highlighting their failures.
    I sometimes think that the EU only worked when the UK was able to point out that they were being muppets and the Germans and Dutch would quietly back us up whilst letting us take all the flack for not being communitaire enough. They need to recalibrate how they are going to make rational decisions now.

    On the positive side there will be more pharmaceutical investment in the UK as a result of this nonsense.
    Hmmm, a sweeping statement that is almost certainly (sadly) wrong. No CEO of a pharma company will likely make a decision based on this regarding investment. They might say so for leverage, but it would be way down their list of priorities. CEOs of pharma companies make decisions on rational shareholder value propositions, not nationalistic sabre rattling. If there is any truth in what you say, then it would need to counterbalance the massive disbenefit to UK based pharma that Brexit has given.

    Anyway, it was nice to discuss Scottish matters, rather than the EU for once, interspersed with occasional silliness and concern for Malcolmg's aeronautical sexual predilections/ fantasies. Before we go down the EU/Brexit rabbit hole I must say adieu, and have a good weekend.
    You too Nigel, I enjoyed our chat.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2021

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Thank god we are out. I mean, really, is this up for discussion anymore? Bunch of complete muppets (with due apologies to Kermit and Miss Piggy).
    They do seem determined to make Brexit look positive by any means necessary.

    They really could have just STFU and tried to change the conversation, but no keep highlighting their failures.
    I sometimes think that the EU only worked when the UK was able to point out that they were being muppets and the Germans and Dutch would quietly back us up whilst letting us take all the flack for not being communitaire enough. They need to recalibrate how they are going to make rational decisions now.

    On the positive side there will be more pharmaceutical investment in the UK as a result of this nonsense.
    Hmmm, a sweeping statement that is almost certainly (sadly) wrong. No CEO of a pharma company will likely make a decision based on this regarding investment. They might say so for leverage, but it would be way down their list of priorities. CEOs of pharma companies make decisions on rational shareholder value propositions, not nationalistic sabre rattling. If there is any truth in what you say, then it would need to counterbalance the massive disbenefit to UK based pharma that Brexit has given.

    Anyway, it was nice to discuss Scottish matters, rather than the EU for once, interspersed with occasional silliness and concern for Malcolmg's aeronautical sexual predilections/ fantasies. Before we go down the EU/Brexit rabbit hole I must say adieu, and have a good weekend.
    You say that but the past twelve months have already seen immense investment (a lot of it government sponsored to be fair) in the pharmaceutical industry in this nation.

    We are going to come out of this pandemic with a much bigger pharma industry than we went into it with.

    Which is one thing which makes this such an unusual recession. There have been billions invested in some sectors during the recession.

    To be fair much of this is due to choices the government have made to sponsor investment, instead of Brexit per se but taking back control and having governments we elect make choices that suit us was the point of Brexit. So its a bit circular.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Thompson, yeah, I like SG-1 a lot, and share your concerns regarding a new series being poor (as seems to happen with lots of modern takes on classic sci-fi). But we shall see.

    What's this? I loved SG-1, it still holds up. The military must have agreed given the cameos from serving chief officers. Had not heard any news.

    I'm more curious how the planned Foundation series will work. Original trilogy not exactly set up for year on year narrative with the same characters.
    The United States Air Force loved the show so much they made Richard Dean Anderson an honorary Brigadier General.

    https://www.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2000588556/
    It showed the US Airforce, alone among the armed forces, defending multiple galaxies, whilst its officers nobly fought off civilian agency and political interference, of course they loved it.
    What about the real enemies, the US Army and Navy?
    Treated as they deserved - ignored.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    @HYUFD is by far the most interesting poster on this board these days.

    Thankyou Horse, very kind of you but there are plenty of interesting posters here depending on the topic
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,939
    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    This'll help:

    Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.

    Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.

    But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-france-back-commissions-astrazeneca-lawsuit-diplomats/

    Are we sure these same people weren't behind the ESL?
    It worked out so well that they're thinking of rebranding the EU as the European Super League of Nations. What could go wrong?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Thompson, yeah, I like SG-1 a lot, and share your concerns regarding a new series being poor (as seems to happen with lots of modern takes on classic sci-fi). But we shall see.

    What's this? I loved SG-1, it still holds up. The military must have agreed given the cameos from serving chief officers. Had not heard any news.

    I'm more curious how the planned Foundation series will work. Original trilogy not exactly set up for year on year narrative with the same characters.
    The United States Air Force loved the show so much they made Richard Dean Anderson an honorary Brigadier General.

    https://www.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2000588556/
    It showed the US Airforce, alone among the armed forces, defending multiple galaxies, whilst its officers nobly fought off civilian agency and political interference, of course they loved it.
    What about the real enemies, the US Army and Navy?
    Treated as they deserved - ignored.
    When you think about it besides the sci-fi antagonists like the Goa'uld the human antagonists were "civilian oversight" groups, politicians etc - especially politicians who want to cut the Air Force budget. Senator Kinsey was a great antagonist to love to hate.

    Almost like the whole series was a puff piece for the USAF.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,856
    MrEd said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Busy morning, but just wanted to comment on the public sector finance data, it looks a lot better than what the OBR predicted and the collapse in tax receipts will probably bounce back extremely strongly this year while the virus spending will be virtually eliminated by the end of July as the need for people to be on furlough and other support schemes are reduced and actually eliminated by September.

    As a wild guess, I'd say we're due a £80bn uplift in job related tax receipts this year as income tax, self assessment, NI and other job related taxes recover strongly and in terms of income support schemes we spent £78bn in the previous year, this should be close to around £15-20bn this year. Just in job terms the deficit will go down by around £130-140bn. The other thing to note is that industry support schemes will also wind down from September and tax take from businesses will begin to accrue again from then as they shake off the rust of lockdown. I'd estimate that this will be worth around £30bn saved in support schemes and around £50bn gained in VAT, rates, corporation tax and other smaller taxes on business/spending. That's another £80bn swing in the deficit.

    Adding in all of the other smaller gains elsewhere in the economy and general uplift I think we're probably going to end the next year with a deficit under £100bn and the following year under £60bn. Compared to our trends before the virus that puts total virus borrowing at £400bn, almost all of which has been monetised by the BoE already.

    The predictions of economic doom are hugely overdone IMO, at least for this country and the US.

    I still find the idea that monetising £400bn of debt is some magical, cost free Get out of Jail Free card very hard to come to terms with. I just can't believe it is going to be that simple.
    Off-topic but a personal word of thanks to you @DavidL re your advice about the dispute I had. Looks as though it is all sorted.
    Glad it was some help.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Do they announce the list vote in a constituency at the time the constituency declares, or is the first indication of list votes we get when regions start declaring as a whole?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021
    All those who want German style ownership of their football club....

    How the Bundersliga became a one club league.

    https://youtu.be/YB9cpKlBVKQ
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Not coming to a Dave Keating tweet anytime soon:

    The Lazio miracle: How Rome got it right on vaccinations
    Italian region copied successful schemes in the UK, US and Israel.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/the-lazio-miracle-how-rome-got-it-right-on-vaccinations/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619166245
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    In March, Labour used a speech to a posh London think tank to attack “faux flag-waving.”

    Under intense pressure in the Hartlepool by-election, this is their latest leaflet, posted through doors yesterday.. (the wrong day.)


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1385550875737870338?s=20

    Maybe Labour are going to outflank the tories on flagshagging. Skip straight over the butcher's apron and go right to the hard stuff: the flag of the Genoese navy.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,392
    edited April 2021

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Don't the Scottish Greens support independence and a referendum? (oh they do see https://www.ft.com/content/fea2ad6b-90e6-4795-8269-3f4bffde80c9)

    So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.

    Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.

    This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.

    It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.

    Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.

    Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.

    Interesting times ahead!

    Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her.
    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20

    Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385198824948486146?s=20
This discussion has been closed.