Well the OBR have accrued for the expected write-offs of the government's loan fund, of c.£25bn.
However the difference is still pretty susbtantial.
Against that the borrowing figure will probably get revised downwards for another few months as additional data comes in. We might end the year on something like £285bn and 12-13% of GDP once everything is finalised.
A spokesman for the PM insisted that he would “not comment on speculation”, despite stories in the Times, The Daily Telegraph and The Sun quoting Downing Street sources claiming Mr Cummings leaked the texts. https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1385561134355333120
If Cummings then presumably not the sinister Labour mole in the Civil Service who was blamed last week.
Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders
Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives
(Telegraph)
A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.
Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.
The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
Why do the CDU want to save UvdL over winning the election?
I know she's one of theirs, but you'd think that if she fell it could be portrayed as personal responsibility and drawing a line under the situation to move on from.
For a lot of Germans the EU is an article of faith, putting what they see as a Eurosceptic (he isn't) in charge is almost sacrilegious. The fear of being seen as un-European is massive, Laschet is another mindless EU-bot who will fall in line when necessary.
I think you're reading too much into this. This is about internal German politics, not UvdL or the EU. Basically it's the CDU inner circle supporting one of their own rather than the upstart from the sister party.
Disagree, Söder was looked upon favourably until he started shitting on the commission's vaccine failures. It was that which has put the CDU into a defensive stance becuase they don't believe he will uphold their bootlicking stance on the EU.
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
Interesting times ahead!
Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her. https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20
Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way
It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.
The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
Thanks for that. Its all a bit frustrating. Do we know when Hartlepool is counting?
Hartlepool also has local election and Mayoral and PCC ballots to count at the same time, so probably also on the Friday as well with Thursday night again verifications unless they want the by election result out of the way by Friday morning
Ach, its not going to be a proper PB election night is it? And it had the potential to be an absolute cracker with so many different elections going on at once.
Many areas the locals wont be known till Saturday. Travesty.
Already many hated overnight counts (mine was the only one to do the first PCC election that way I think, to be first), so outside parliamentary we might not get them back!
At lunchtime we put our crosses into the appropriate boxes on our postal ballots. The red-green electoral pact has come good again, and in the WY mayoral election the green votes are still red votes on second pref anyway. Apparently we won't get a declaration until the Sunday after polling day.
Reading the bumf, it turns out that the Deputy Mayor for Policing (who is appointed by the mayor) essentially takes over the role of PCC.
Oh yes, nearly forgot: Voting was 'brisk'. All ballots cast in the space of 5 minutes!
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
Interesting times ahead!
Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her. https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20
Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way
It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.
The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
Thanks for that. Its all a bit frustrating. Do we know when Hartlepool is counting?
On the night but it will be VERY late as they are validating all votes for the mayoral the PCC and the byelection first!
Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders
Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives
(Telegraph)
A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.
Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.
The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
Why do the CDU want to save UvdL over winning the election?
I know she's one of theirs, but you'd think that if she fell it could be portrayed as personal responsibility and drawing a line under the situation to move on from.
For a lot of Germans the EU is an article of faith, putting what they see as a Eurosceptic (he isn't) in charge is almost sacrilegious. The fear of being seen as un-European is massive, Laschet is another mindless EU-bot who will fall in line when necessary.
I think you're reading too much into this. This is about internal German politics, not UvdL or the EU. Basically it's the CDU inner circle supporting one of their own rather than the upstart from the sister party.
Disagree, Söder was looked upon favourably until he started shitting on the commission's vaccine failures. It was that which has put the CDU into a defensive stance becuase they don't believe he will uphold their bootlicking stance on the EU.
Things can't get better if you can't admit you have problems.
Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.
Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.
But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.
Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.
Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.
But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.
Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.
Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.
But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.
Almost every EU country has backed a lawsuit against AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery delays, paving the way for the Commission to start legal proceedings as soon as Friday, according to two EU diplomats.
Five to six of the bigger countries had aired reservations about a lawsuit when EU ambassadors met earlier this week, first warning there's little the EU can do if AstraZeneca fails to deliver more doses, then arguing that legal action could further worsen AstraZeneca's already-tarnished image.
But one by one, concerned countries fell in line: France backed the lawsuit on Thursday night, followed by Germany Friday morning, according to at least two diplomats. Hungary backed the lawsuit as well as of Friday morning, according to another diplomat.
Or they'll just ignore it and brush it aside like they did when they lost the case regarding Ireland's tax arrangements with Apple.
My prediction is that it will be quietly forgotten as soon as the political pressure eases, which won't actually be too long since the EU does have lots of vaccines coming its way in the next couple of months. There will probably be some face-saving settlement.
Time for the Unionists to arrange something eye-catching, perhaps involving farm animals or nasty Nats egging one of their leaders? However Yoons should rest assured that most of the attention given to Sturgeon or indeed Salmond would not have been of the positive variety.
Or they'll just ignore it and brush it aside like they did when they lost the case regarding Ireland's tax arrangements with Apple.
My prediction is that it will be quietly forgotten as soon as the political pressure eases, which won't actually be too long since the EU does have lots of vaccines coming its way in the next couple of months. There will probably be some face-saving settlement.
Considering that AZN are doing this not-for-profit I'm not sure how a face-saving settlement will even be possible?
If they were making a multi-billion euro profit on the contract they could perhaps offer to make a small repayment to make this all go away and save face for everyone, despite them not having done anything wrong, but when they're not even making a profit what's even supposed to happen here next?
Mr. Thompson, it's an unfortunate coincidence that May and Johnson are both trying to buy themselves legacy points by imposing barely considered and drastic 'green' targets which are due to hit long after their time in office.
As energy investment are made on multi-decade bases, that is simply unavoidable. Doing nothing would be more drastic and ill considered.
Or they'll just ignore it and brush it aside like they did when they lost the case regarding Ireland's tax arrangements with Apple.
My prediction is that it will be quietly forgotten as soon as the political pressure eases, which won't actually be too long since the EU does have lots of vaccines coming its way in the next couple of months. There will probably be some face-saving settlement.
Considering that AZN are doing this not-for-profit I'm not sure how a face-saving settlement will even be possible?
If they were making a multi-billion euro profit on the contract they could perhaps offer to make a small repayment to make this all go away and save face for everyone, despite them not having done anything wrong, but when they're not even making a profit what's even supposed to happen here next?
Or they'll just ignore it and brush it aside like they did when they lost the case regarding Ireland's tax arrangements with Apple.
My prediction is that it will be quietly forgotten as soon as the political pressure eases, which won't actually be too long since the EU does have lots of vaccines coming its way in the next couple of months. There will probably be some face-saving settlement.
Considering that AZN are doing this not-for-profit I'm not sure how a face-saving settlement will even be possible?
If they were making a multi-billion euro profit on the contract they could perhaps offer to make a small repayment to make this all go away and save face for everyone, despite them not having done anything wrong, but when they're not even making a profit what's even supposed to happen here next?
Maybe the two sides will agree to cancel the remaining orders, AZ will return some of the up-front payments, and AZ then sell the production elsewhere? Dunno.
Or they'll just ignore it and brush it aside like they did when they lost the case regarding Ireland's tax arrangements with Apple.
My prediction is that it will be quietly forgotten as soon as the political pressure eases, which won't actually be too long since the EU does have lots of vaccines coming its way in the next couple of months. There will probably be some face-saving settlement.
Considering that AZN are doing this not-for-profit I'm not sure how a face-saving settlement will even be possible?
If they were making a multi-billion euro profit on the contract they could perhaps offer to make a small repayment to make this all go away and save face for everyone, despite them not having done anything wrong, but when they're not even making a profit what's even supposed to happen here next?
Maybe the two sides will agree to cancel the remaining orders, AZ will return some of the up-front payments, and AZ then sell the production elsewhere? Dunno.
Were there upfront payments? I thought the EU model was payment upon delivery. But I could well be wrong.
Just been jabbed! Hoorah for AZ. Now spending my obligatory fifteen minutes wait sat in the sun listening to the pleasant summery sounfs of Whalley Range Tennis Club. Blue skies above, the trees awash with blossom. Better days are on the way. Feeling quite emotional.
Or they'll just ignore it and brush it aside like they did when they lost the case regarding Ireland's tax arrangements with Apple.
My prediction is that it will be quietly forgotten as soon as the political pressure eases, which won't actually be too long since the EU does have lots of vaccines coming its way in the next couple of months. There will probably be some face-saving settlement.
Considering that AZN are doing this not-for-profit I'm not sure how a face-saving settlement will even be possible?
If they were making a multi-billion euro profit on the contract they could perhaps offer to make a small repayment to make this all go away and save face for everyone, despite them not having done anything wrong, but when they're not even making a profit what's even supposed to happen here next?
Maybe the two sides will agree to cancel the remaining orders, AZ will return some of the up-front payments, and AZ then sell the production elsewhere? Dunno.
Were there upfront payments? I thought the EU model was payment upon delivery. But I could well be wrong.
I'm not sure of the exact details, but there certainly were some upfront payments.
Just been jabbed! Hoorah for AZ. Now spending my obligatory fifteen minutes wait sat in the sun listening to the pleasant summery sounfs of Whalley Range Tennis Club. Blue skies above, the trees awash with blossom. Better days are on the way. Feeling quite emotional.
I thought that the 15 minutes was only for Pfizer not AZ? Has that changed?
Just been jabbed! Hoorah for AZ. Now spending my obligatory fifteen minutes wait sat in the sun listening to the pleasant summery sounfs of Whalley Range Tennis Club. Blue skies above, the trees awash with blossom. Better days are on the way. Feeling quite emotional.
Isn't it a wonderful feeling? I sat for 30 minutes on Wednesday - in front row seats labeled 30 mins - for those known to have severe allergic reactions to medications. Lots of friendly officials checking every couple of minutes to see how I was doing.
One other point on electoral reform - I think some sort of PR system is vital for the future of the Union.
With some sort of PR, if the SNP receive roughly half the vote they will have roughly half the Scottish MPs - and so the other half of Scottish MPs will still have a chance of having their voice heard.
At present FPTP can deliver the overwhelming majority of MPs from Scotland to the SNP, and that makes it easier for them to create a Scotland versus Westminster narrative.
Yes I can see the Tories giving up shedloads of seats to Labour and Libdems, do you boys ever think things through or does your dislike of Scotland blind you to reality. What a halfwit.
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
Interesting times ahead!
Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her. https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20
Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way
It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.
The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
Thanks for that. Its all a bit frustrating. Do we know when Hartlepool is counting?
Are we going to be subjected to prolonged moaning by PBers next month, about how crap the UK election system is, because punters can NOT get the instantaneous election results which they not only crave, but believe is their birthright?
Am sure looking forward to that spectacle. Indeed, will likely throw a little lighter fluid on the flames just for jollies!
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.
Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
What drivel are you writing now. When have I ever talked about unicorn futures, I merely stated that a contract for a pension would have to be sorted and the liability was with successor state, ie rUK , which is extremely more sensible than your bollox about rUK welching on its debts. It matters not a jot to me anyway given I have a million anyway so I don't give a monkeys chuff about the state pension. Stick your bias up your erchie.@eek
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.
Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
What drivel are you writing now. When have I ever talked about unicorn futures, I merely stated that a contract for a pension would have to be sorted and the liability was with successor state, ie rUK , which is extremely more sensible than your bollox about rUK welching on its debts. It matters not a jot to me anyway given I have a million anyway so I don't give a monkeys chuff about the state pension. Stick your bias up your erchie.@eek
Debts like bonds are paid by the successor state typically, but pensions aren't actually debts. Even if they're [mis-]sold on that basis to the populace.
Can you name any successor state ever in history to pay pensions for nations that have split off?
Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders
Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives
(Telegraph)
A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.
Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.
The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
The Forsa poll may well hsve been an outlier. Two other polls show a more familiar picture:
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.
Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
What drivel are you writing now. When have I ever talked about unicorn futures, I merely stated that a contract for a pension would have to be sorted and the liability was with successor state, ie rUK , which is extremely more sensible than your bollox about rUK welching on its debts. It matters not a jot to me anyway given I have a million anyway so I don't give a monkeys chuff about the state pension. Stick your bias up your erchie.@eek
If you live in Scotland the successor state isn't rUK it will be the newly (re)formed Scottish state..
Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders
Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives
(Telegraph)
A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.
Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.
The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
The Forsa poll may well hsve been an outlier. Two other polls show a more familiar picture:
All give the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP however and Forsa even gives the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD.
Laschet as Union Chancellor candidate has made a centre left coalition government under Green leader Baerbock now a real possibility
More likely results methinks is a Green-Black coalition: Greens + CDU/CSU.
If the numbers are there for a Green, Linke and SPD deal I suspect the Green base will force that over a CDU/CSU deal, especially if the Greens are largest party.
Plus it is also possible many CSU MPs could even vote against Laschet as Chancellor or at least abstain, the CDU/CSU Union is effectively over for the moment
“We will certainly add other potential vaccines, for example protein-based vaccines have also quite a potential,” von der Leyen said at a news briefing.
The vaccines currently being developed by Novavax and Sanofi/Glaxo-Smith-Kline are examples of protein-based vaccines....
Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders
Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives
(Telegraph)
A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.
The German Greens aren't as 'watermelon' as our Greens here are they?
Or as green as the Tories it seems. The Green parties carbon targets aren't as ambitious as the Tory ones here, not that you'd know it listening to climate activists here.
That the Tories appear to want to offshore more business than the Greens is not something to boast about.
Replace Merkel with Greens leader say German business leaders
Annalena Baerbock wins twice as much support in survey of 1,500 German managers than Armin Laschet, the candidate from ruling conservatives
(Telegraph)
A political earthquake seems to be about to happen in Germany.
Laschet is extremely unpopular with everyone but he won't rock the EU boat so he got the nod ahead of Söder who is pro-EU but not uncritically as the rest of the German establishment. He's probably in a comparable position to @williamglenn, believes that the EU has a lot of potential for good but is run by a ship of fools.
The CDU are, IMO, throwing away the election to save UvdL as commission president. It's almost a certainty that chancellor Söder would have her head on a platter within weeks of winning. He'd make her position and that of the commission completely untenable.
The Forsa poll may well hsve been an outlier. Two other polls show a more familiar picture:
All give the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP however and Forsa even gives the Greens+SPD+Linke more than the CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD.
Laschet as Union Chancellor candidate has made a centre left coalition government under Green leader Baerbock now a real possibility
More likely results methinks is a Green-Black coalition: Greens + CDU/CSU.
If the numbers are there for a Green, Linke and SPD deal I suspect the Green base will force that over a CDU/CSU deal.
Plus it is also possible many CSU MPs could even vote against Laschet as Chancellor or at least abstain, the CDU/CSU Union is effectively over for the moment
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.
Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
What drivel are you writing now. When have I ever talked about unicorn futures, I merely stated that a contract for a pension would have to be sorted and the liability was with successor state, ie rUK , which is extremely more sensible than your bollox about rUK welching on its debts. It matters not a jot to me anyway given I have a million anyway so I don't give a monkeys chuff about the state pension. Stick your bias up your erchie.@eek
Debts like bonds are paid by the successor state typically, but pensions aren't actually debts. Even if they're [mis-]sold on that basis to the populace.
Can you name any successor state ever in history to pay pensions for nations that have split off?
Can you name one that has welched, it will of course be part of the negotiations along with sharing the assets etc. In any case all countries manage to pay their pensions and given UK has lowest pension in the developed world it is of no major concern. Only scaredy unionists are concerned and making out they know anything about it, I don't care and believe there will be no change to pensions and someone will pay them, England currently takes all our cash to pay them , it will save a lot of time and overheads to do it locally , create more jobs and less Tory bungs, win win for Scotland methinks.
Just been jabbed! Hoorah for AZ. Now spending my obligatory fifteen minutes wait sat in the sun listening to the pleasant summery sounfs of Whalley Range Tennis Club. Blue skies above, the trees awash with blossom. Better days are on the way. Feeling quite emotional.
Last night visited with close friends I had not seen in a year. Because one of them - a cancer survivor - got their 2nd jab two weeks ago and is now good to go.
And next week am going out to dinner with some other friends, something not done since March 2020.
All because we've been vaccinated, the world is once again our oyster.
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.
Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
What drivel are you writing now. When have I ever talked about unicorn futures, I merely stated that a contract for a pension would have to be sorted and the liability was with successor state, ie rUK , which is extremely more sensible than your bollox about rUK welching on its debts. It matters not a jot to me anyway given I have a million anyway so I don't give a monkeys chuff about the state pension. Stick your bias up your erchie.@eek
If you live in Scotland the successor state isn't rUK it will be the newly (re)formed Scottish state..
Look at worst , instead of us sending England all our money and getting a meagre pension from them , we will cut out the overheads pay it ourselves , save money and create jobs. It is of no concern certainly to me, every country in the developed world manages to pay its pension just fine and they are all significantly higher than UK levels. Don't you worry about us, be more concerned about the state of rUK after we are gone , that will affect you for sure.
Basically Labour are stuck almost forever around 35%, that seems to be the floor for the time being, which is an improvement on 2019.
2017 repeat is within reach, 40% should be doable with the right strategy.
Based on voteshare - I know not always a great measure - Labour are actually in the last 16 years or so, historically reasonably popular. It's just that the Tories are even more popular.
Voteshare, my dear fellow, is one thing. Turnout, especially in local elections, quite another.
It is traditional for the turnout of ruling parties to drop while oppositions to increase. Differential turnout gave William Hague IDS and Milliband some really good election results while not been particularly popular.
This has been turned on its head since Corbyn though. What's your thoughts for may?
In 1998, Hague's first local elections, the Tories got 32%, in 2002, IDS' first local elections, the Tories got 34%, in 2004, Howard's first local elections the Tories got 37%. In Ed Miliband's first local elections as leader in 2011 Labour got 37% and in 2016, Corbyn's first local elections as leader Labour got 31%. So you would expect Starmer to get a score in the early to mid 30s on current polling.
Blair in his first local elections as leader by contrast got 47% in 1995 which really suggested a Labour landslide was in the cards in 1997.
Cameron got 39% in his first local elections as leader in 2006, so to be on course for power Labour really need to be scoring in the late 30s or 40%+ in local polls
Not really, because Kinnock got 39% in his first local elections in 1984 and Miliband got 40% in 2011.
You simply can't tell anything about the next election from local elections three years out.
Kinnock got up to 44% in the 1990 local elections however after the poll tax and had the Tories not replaced Thatcher with Major and dumped the poll tax he may well have won the 1992 general election.
You're right, I read the wrong column in the spreadsheet. Though the locals projections I have have 1984 38%, 2004 38% 2011 36%. Projecting is not an exact science
A spokesman for the PM insisted that he would “not comment on speculation”, despite stories in the Times, The Daily Telegraph and The Sun quoting Downing Street sources claiming Mr Cummings leaked the texts. https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1385561134355333120
If Cummings then presumably not the sinister Labour mole in the Civil Service who was blamed last week.
Just been jabbed! Hoorah for AZ. Now spending my obligatory fifteen minutes wait sat in the sun listening to the pleasant summery sounfs of Whalley Range Tennis Club. Blue skies above, the trees awash with blossom. Better days are on the way. Feeling quite emotional.
Or they'll just ignore it and brush it aside like they did when they lost the case regarding Ireland's tax arrangements with Apple.
My prediction is that it will be quietly forgotten as soon as the political pressure eases, which won't actually be too long since the EU does have lots of vaccines coming its way in the next couple of months. There will probably be some face-saving settlement.
Considering that AZN are doing this not-for-profit I'm not sure how a face-saving settlement will even be possible?
If they were making a multi-billion euro profit on the contract they could perhaps offer to make a small repayment to make this all go away and save face for everyone, despite them not having done anything wrong, but when they're not even making a profit what's even supposed to happen here next?
The order gets cancelled and the EU gets all the profit AZ would have made from the deal?
All manifestos provide limited and ad hoc detail on costings, apart from the Conservatives who provide detailed, but not completely comprehensive, costing information. On the basis of the current projected outlook for the Scottish budget, it seems likely that all manifestos imply the need for budget cuts to some areas of nonprotected spend. No manifesto has given an indication of areas where spending might fall.
Seems Mrs Vennells has a number of high profile non-exec positions e.g. Morrisons Supermarket.
I wonder how long they will last?
So you are saying that a supermarket chain has HIGHER ethical standards than the Church of England?
The Rev. Richard Coles has been very supportive of the post office workers' campaign and welcomed today's decision. He has been asked on his twitter account about Ms Vennells' position on the CoE ethics committee and he said that there should be a top level inquiry into the Post Office scandal and removing her from the CoE committee might be seen as prejudging its findings.
India. Good grief. Puts everything into perspective. The west should act.
India death rate per million 135
Global death rate per million 396
UK death rate per million 1868
India has a lot of cases but it also has a vast population, its Covid death rate is actually well below most of the West's due to its younger population. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
As India’s second wave worsens, German Chancellor Merkel says Europe “allowed India” to become a major pharma producer. “Ally” America keeps export curbs on vaccine raw materials, labels India “currency manipulator.” So much for a democratic alliance! #Gravitas @WIONews #9pmIST
India. Good grief. Puts everything into perspective. The west should act.
India death rate per million 135
Global death rate per million 396
UK death rate per million 1868
India has a lot of cases but it also has a vast population, its Covid death rate is actually well below most of the West's due to its younger population. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I think you somewhat miss the point. Simply dividing deaths by the total population of India does not make this any less of an emergency.
My firm has people in India. A death of a team member was announced just now. It seems everyone out there is effected directly with their family.
Seems Mrs Vennells has a number of high profile non-exec positions e.g. Morrisons Supermarket.
I wonder how long they will last?
So you are saying that a supermarket chain has HIGHER ethical standards than the Church of England?
The Rev. Richard Coles has been very supportive of the post office workers' campaign and welcomed today's decision. He has been asked on his twitter account about Ms Vennells' position on the CoE ethics committee and he said that there should be a top level inquiry into the Post Office scandal and removing her from the CoE committee might be seen as prejudging its findings.
How's about suspending her from her position until the Church's inquiry is concluded?
That's pretty typical in these sorts of situations, and does NOT prejudge.
Instead, ensures that someone facing a serious, credible accusation is NOT in position to continue the conduct for which they are accused.
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.
Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
What drivel are you writing now. When have I ever talked about unicorn futures, I merely stated that a contract for a pension would have to be sorted and the liability was with successor state, ie rUK , which is extremely more sensible than your bollox about rUK welching on its debts. It matters not a jot to me anyway given I have a million anyway so I don't give a monkeys chuff about the state pension. Stick your bias up your erchie.@eek
If you live in Scotland the successor state isn't rUK it will be the newly (re)formed Scottish state..
Look at worst , instead of us sending England all our money and getting a meagre pension from them , we will cut out the overheads pay it ourselves , save money and create jobs. It is of no concern certainly to me, every country in the developed world manages to pay its pension just fine and they are all significantly higher than UK levels. Don't you worry about us, be more concerned about the state of rUK after we are gone , that will affect you for sure.
It’s almost like you actually believe Scotland will be richer outside of the U.K.
I voted for Brexit knowing we’d probably be poorer than we might otherwise have been if we stayed in, because I thought other things mattered more. The same position is respectable and understandable for Scots Nats but thinking you’ll be richer is just demonstrable rubbish.
As India’s second wave worsens, German Chancellor Merkel says Europe “allowed India” to become a major pharma producer. “Ally” America keeps export curbs on vaccine raw materials, labels India “currency manipulator.” So much for a democratic alliance! #Gravitas @WIONews #9pmIST
As India’s second wave worsens, German Chancellor Merkel says Europe “allowed India” to become a major pharma producer. “Ally” America keeps export curbs on vaccine raw materials, labels India “currency manipulator.” So much for a democratic alliance! #Gravitas @WIONews #9pmIST
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
So Sturgeon has a problem - the parties wanting a referendum are going to have over 50% of the seats and that puts her in an impossible situation especially when you look at the unicorn futures we saw MalcolmG and other pro independence voters imagine.
Sturgeon is going to have to find a very good excuse to delay things if that is her desire...
What drivel are you writing now. When have I ever talked about unicorn futures, I merely stated that a contract for a pension would have to be sorted and the liability was with successor state, ie rUK , which is extremely more sensible than your bollox about rUK welching on its debts. It matters not a jot to me anyway given I have a million anyway so I don't give a monkeys chuff about the state pension. Stick your bias up your erchie.@eek
Debts like bonds are paid by the successor state typically, but pensions aren't actually debts. Even if they're [mis-]sold on that basis to the populace.
Can you name any successor state ever in history to pay pensions for nations that have split off?
Can you name one that has welched, it will of course be part of the negotiations along with sharing the assets etc. In any case all countries manage to pay their pensions and given UK has lowest pension in the developed world it is of no major concern. Only scaredy unionists are concerned and making out they know anything about it, I don't care and believe there will be no change to pensions and someone will pay them, England currently takes all our cash to pay them , it will save a lot of time and overheads to do it locally , create more jobs and less Tory bungs, win win for Scotland methinks.
The argument for Scottish independence is now that it will create an extra layer of unnecessary bureaucracy, which will nevertheless provide employment for otherwise unemployable Scots.
Possibly those made newly redundant from companies fleeing southwards to a more hospitable tax regime, and bigger domestic markets.
As India’s second wave worsens, German Chancellor Merkel says Europe “allowed India” to become a major pharma producer. “Ally” America keeps export curbs on vaccine raw materials, labels India “currency manipulator.” So much for a democratic alliance! #Gravitas @WIONews #9pmIST
As India’s second wave worsens, German Chancellor Merkel says Europe “allowed India” to become a major pharma producer. “Ally” America keeps export curbs on vaccine raw materials, labels India “currency manipulator.” So much for a democratic alliance! #Gravitas @WIONews #9pmIST
Politico.com - White House writes off Johnson & Johnson vaccine after string of production failures The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.
Politico.com - White House writes off Johnson & Johnson vaccine after string of production failures The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.
Politico.com - White House writes off Johnson & Johnson vaccine after string of production failures The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.
"A narrative of Indian exceptionalism led people to believe they were more immune to Covid-19, the director of the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy says.
Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan says it resulted in people taking fewer precautions and allowed the virus to spread rapidly in the country.
The country avoided a crisis last year due to a lockdown but when it was lifted the virus returned, he tells BBC World News."
Politico.com - White House writes off Johnson & Johnson vaccine after string of production failures The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.
Politico.com - White House writes off Johnson & Johnson vaccine after string of production failures The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.
"A narrative of Indian exceptionalism led people to believe they were more immune to Covid-19, the director of the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy says.
Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan says it resulted in people taking fewer precautions and allowed the virus to spread rapidly in the country.
The country avoided a crisis last year due to a lockdown but when it was lifted the virus returned, he tells BBC World News."
Yeah, its not bad but I think that we were hoping for 700k towards the end of this week. Still supply limited obviously.
My wife has appointment next weds for her 2nd jag, nothing for me yet.
Yet in England I don't think I personally know anyone who doesn't know exactly when they second jab appointment is.
Yes I know Cyclefree does seem to have an issue but she is very much an exception and I don't know her personally.
I don't know mine yet. Everyone I know who had their first through a vaccine centre does, but I had mine through the GP. They said they would contact me in due course.
Something that amazes me is how many of my students have had one or both doses. Mostly not the UK students, but I'd guess that a majority of the EU students have been fully vaccinated. I don't know how that works, but I'm happy for them (and for me, when face-to-face teaching is permitted!).
I live in Scotland, as do much of my family and many of my friends. I have a very legitimate interest in the consequences of Independence; and can reasonably expect political prospectuses to have some contact with reality.
So: the fiscal deficit issue is a real one (see link), the affordability of legacy pensions is a real issue, the currency issue (and sterling based mortgages in a potentially non-sterling economy) is a real issue, and the potential of a hard border with a currently highly integrated and massively preponderent trading partner is a real issue.
A certain frequent commenter on this site waves these concerns away with foul-mouthed bigotry, but they are not going away.
I know it is a mistake to react to a certain "thick as mince bampot from Ayrshire" (TM), but I thought I'd remind him and others of Scotland's long-standing structural fiscal deficit (and one which Covid measures will only have made worse).
For the five years in the run-up to Covid, Scotland has run a fiscal deficit (inc N Sea revenues split on a geographic basis) of 8% (range 7-10%, more than twice the UK's fiscal deficit. It is a real challenge to fund public spending in an independent Scotland. Solutions: more tax, less spending or more borrowing?? It has to be one or more of these.
Source: House of Commons Library, Scotland: public spending and revenue, October 2020.
Politico.com - White House writes off Johnson & Johnson vaccine after string of production failures The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.
Politico.com - White House writes off Johnson & Johnson vaccine after string of production failures The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.
Johnson & Johnson - a dysfunctional family company
Nice pun, but unfair.
J&J have a good history of vaccine development, and the manufacturing problems are down to a subcontractor - Emergent Biosolutions - which was selected and financed by the (previous) US administration. Novavax got lucky, as they were to have used Emergent as a manufacturing contractor as well, but the govt. bumped them in favour of J&J.
Just been jabbed! Hoorah for AZ. Now spending my obligatory fifteen minutes wait sat in the sun listening to the pleasant summery sounfs of Whalley Range Tennis Club. Blue skies above, the trees awash with blossom. Better days are on the way. Feeling quite emotional.
I thought that the 15 minutes was only for Pfizer not AZ? Has that changed?
Seems to be for everyone driving. Wife who had her AZ in early March was fifteen-minuted too.
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you Philip for a thought provoking article.
This is a very difficult election for Nicola Sturgeon. If she wins an overall majority, she has no excuse not to call for a referendum. Despite the bluster, I think Boris Johnson would have no alternative other than to grant one. He won’t want to be seen as a democracy denier. If Yes win an Indyref, the reason for the SNP’s existence disappears. If she loses, she will gave to resign, and the SNP will be severely weakened for many years.
It is in Sturgeon’s interest, therefore, not to have a referendum. The scenario that would most suit her, and enable her to continue with her social engineering policies, would be to fall very slightly short of an overall majority, and to govern with the support of the Greens, either in a coalition or a confidence and supply deal. SNP and Green policies are very similar. However, this will be difficult to pull off. If she is too successful, she will have an overall majority. If she is not successful enough, she will be weakened, and will be leading a lame duck government.
Alba has thrown a major spanner in the works for her. Independence supporters now have another party to vote for. I think they will gain 3 or 4 seats and hold her feet to the fire. There will also be a fightback within the SNP from the currently marginalised activists who have been denied a say in policy since 2018, unless she fights for a referendum.
Can she pull it off? I think not. The SNP have fought a lacklustre campaign, only helped by the media, especially the BBC, hardly mentioning Alba. Ofcom are today investigating the lack of BBC coverage of Alba. I suspect that many SNP supporters will just stay at home, and even more will vote Green, Alba or Labour on the list. I expect Labour to be the second biggest party, and therefore, the official opposition. This would also suit Sturgeon, as it would reduce the emphasis on Independence in Holyrood.
Interesting times ahead!
Latest Comres has the SNP on 62 seats so she would fall short of the 65 she needs for an overall majority as would suit her and with 7 Greens remain in government but the SNP would be down one on the 63 seats they won in 2016 which could also weaken her. https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385315103625515016?s=20
Yougov gives the SNP 68 seats and a narrow overall majority so it will be close either way
It will be interesting to see whether the opinion polls change between now and May 6th. The final result won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest. They will be counting constituency votes on the Friday, but can’t start calculating the list votes until all the constituencies have been decided.
29 of the Holyrood constituencies will not be counting until the Saturday either, so forget election night this year, both the English local councils and Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and London Mayoral and Assembly and PCC counts will not be until the Friday and Saturday.
The Thursday night of polling day will be merely verifications, so you can go to bed early and not miss anything as long as you are awake again for 9 30am Friday when the ballots actually start to be counted https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1385558483123249153?s=20
Thanks for that. Its all a bit frustrating. Do we know when Hartlepool is counting?
Are we going to be subjected to prolonged moaning by PBers next month, about how crap the UK election system is, because punters can NOT get the instantaneous election results which they not only crave, but believe is their birthright?
India. Good grief. Puts everything into perspective. The west should act.
India death rate per million 135
Global death rate per million 396
UK death rate per million 1868
India has a lot of cases but it also has a vast population, its Covid death rate is actually well below most of the West's due to its younger population. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The overall situation, evening the stats are dodgy, being better than average does not speak as to the current crisis being very bad and capable of causing a medical breakdown.
Comments
Already many hated overnight counts (mine was the only one to do the first PCC election that way I think, to be first), so outside parliamentary we might not get them back!
Reading the bumf, it turns out that the Deputy Mayor for Policing (who is appointed by the mayor) essentially takes over the role of PCC.
Oh yes, nearly forgot: Voting was 'brisk'. All ballots cast in the space of 5 minutes!
I wonder how long they will last?
https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1385579410187853833?s=20
Time for the Unionists to arrange something eye-catching, perhaps involving farm animals or nasty Nats egging one of their leaders? However Yoons should rest assured that most of the attention given to Sturgeon or indeed Salmond would not have been of the positive variety.
If they were making a multi-billion euro profit on the contract they could perhaps offer to make a small repayment to make this all go away and save face for everyone, despite them not having done anything wrong, but when they're not even making a profit what's even supposed to happen here next?
Doing nothing would be more drastic and ill considered.
Hope I didn't lose any social credit points.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9503949/Price-pint-rises-SEVEN-POUNDS-Pubs-hike-prices-1-10-claw-losses.html
CureVac has applied for approval in Switzerland. One presumes this means that trial results are imminent.
Am sure looking forward to that spectacle. Indeed, will likely throw a little lighter fluid on the flames just for jollies!
Stick your bias up your erchie.@eek
When would doses be due?
Can you name any successor state ever in history to pay pensions for nations that have split off?
Plus it is also possible many CSU MPs could even vote against Laschet as Chancellor or at least abstain, the CDU/CSU Union is effectively over for the moment
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-eu-vonderleyen/eu-commission-sees-potential-in-protein-based-covid-19-vaccines-idUSB5N2B302O
...the EU Commission may eventually expand its portfolio of COVID-19 jabs to protein-based vaccines, the EU executive’s President Ursula von der Leyen suggested on Friday.
“We will certainly add other potential vaccines, for example protein-based vaccines have also quite a potential,” von der Leyen said at a news briefing.
The vaccines currently being developed by Novavax and Sanofi/Glaxo-Smith-Kline are examples of protein-based vaccines....
Comment unnecessary.
Only scaredy unionists are concerned and making out they know anything about it, I don't care and believe there will be no change to pensions and someone will pay them, England currently takes all our cash to pay them , it will save a lot of time and overheads to do it locally , create more jobs and less Tory bungs, win win for Scotland methinks.
And next week am going out to dinner with some other friends, something not done since March 2020.
All because we've been vaccinated, the world is once again our oyster.
(Their vaccine is interesting, because it's mRNA but can be stored in a fridge They are also - genuinely - backed by Bill Gates.)
Affordability
All manifestos provide limited and ad hoc detail on costings, apart from the Conservatives who provide detailed, but not completely comprehensive, costing information. On the basis of the current projected outlook for the Scottish budget, it seems likely that all manifestos imply the need for budget cuts to some areas of nonprotected spend. No manifesto has given an indication of areas where spending might fall.
https://fraserofallander.org/tax-and-spending-in-the-scottish-parties-2021-manifestos/
Global death rate per million 396
UK death rate per million 1868
India has a lot of cases but it also has a vast population, its Covid death rate is actually well below most of the West's due to its younger population.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Yes I know Cyclefree does seem to have an issue but she is very much an exception and I don't know her personally.
As India’s second wave worsens, German Chancellor Merkel says Europe “allowed India” to become a major pharma producer. “Ally” America keeps export curbs on vaccine raw materials, labels India “currency manipulator.” So much for a democratic alliance! #Gravitas @WIONews #9pmIST
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1385603056289648649?s=20
My firm has people in India. A death of a team member was announced just now. It seems everyone out there is effected directly with their family.
That's pretty typical in these sorts of situations, and does NOT prejudge.
Instead, ensures that someone facing a serious, credible accusation is NOT in position to continue the conduct for which they are accused.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9504445/French-policewoman-stabbed-death-inside-police-station-attacker-shot-killed.html
The 36-year-old attacker, who reportedly came to France from Tunisia several years ago, was shot and later died in hospital.
BBC News - French woman officer dead in knife attack on police in Rambouillet
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56862436
https://twitter.com/THR/status/1385601537326596098?s=20
I voted for Brexit knowing we’d probably be poorer than we might otherwise have been if we stayed in, because I thought other things mattered more. The same position is respectable and understandable for Scots Nats but thinking you’ll be richer is just demonstrable rubbish.
Possibly those made newly redundant from companies fleeing southwards to a more hospitable tax regime, and bigger domestic markets.
Imagine a British PM saying the UK had "allowed" India to become a major pharma producer.....
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1385598128649351173?s=20
Far from clear that was always the intention - Tory donors were asked to pay up.
Will have been quite expensive for the PM.... https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1385605872269897731
The chaos has disappointed the Biden team, which once argued that the company’s one-dose vaccine would be central to turning the tide of the pandemic.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/22/biden-officials-johnson-vaccine-484356
Johnson & Johnson - a dysfunctional family company
Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan says it resulted in people taking fewer precautions and allowed the virus to spread rapidly in the country.
The country avoided a crisis last year due to a lockdown but when it was lifted the virus returned, he tells BBC World News."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56856103
https://apnews.com/article/us-news-elections-government-and-politics-gavin-newsom-california-288b8ed19b68632bb2d2352f3d8a6366
NEW THREAD
Something that amazes me is how many of my students have had one or both doses. Mostly not the UK students, but I'd guess that a majority of the EU students have been fully vaccinated. I don't know how that works, but I'm happy for them (and for me, when face-to-face teaching is permitted!).
--AS
So: the fiscal deficit issue is a real one (see link), the affordability of legacy pensions is a real issue, the currency issue (and sterling based mortgages in a potentially non-sterling economy) is a real issue, and the potential of a hard border with a currently highly integrated and massively preponderent trading partner is a real issue.
A certain frequent commenter on this site waves these concerns away with foul-mouthed bigotry, but they are not going away.
I know it is a mistake to react to a certain "thick as mince bampot from Ayrshire" (TM), but I thought I'd remind him and others of Scotland's long-standing structural fiscal deficit (and one which Covid measures will only have made worse).
For the five years in the run-up to Covid, Scotland has run a fiscal deficit (inc N Sea revenues split on a geographic basis) of 8% (range 7-10%, more than twice the UK's fiscal deficit. It is a real challenge to fund public spending in an independent Scotland. Solutions: more tax, less spending or more borrowing?? It has to be one or more of these.
Source: House of Commons Library, Scotland: public spending and revenue, October 2020.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06625/
There appear to be two issues - blood clot potential problem and US manufacturing screw ups - anyone know where EU/UK's are being manufactured?
J&J have a good history of vaccine development, and the manufacturing problems are down to a subcontractor - Emergent Biosolutions - which was selected and financed by the (previous) US administration.
Novavax got lucky, as they were to have used Emergent as a manufacturing contractor as well, but the govt. bumped them in favour of J&J.