Call Me. Dave. – politicalbetting.com

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on.
If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.

And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.

We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

Typo in the last sentence: it's Clown and Clown.

Pbmoderator, I think ScottP has hacked CR's account!

Charles said:

Barnesian said:

squareroot2 said:

Well,knock me down with a feather. Ms Markle, according to the Daily Mirror, isn't coming to the funeral, "because she doesn't want to be the centre of attention". Risible!
So speaks someone who has sought to be the centre of attention in everything she does !

She's right though. She would be the centre of attention. And that wouldn't be good.

Yes. But why does she feel the need to say that. She had a plausible excuse. She should have STFU.

But she has chosen to make the story about her instead

Floater said:

Jonathan said:

Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.

The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.

Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?

Partisan much.......

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

Barnesian said:

squareroot2 said:

Well,knock me down with a feather. Ms Markle, according to the Daily Mirror, isn't coming to the funeral, "because she doesn't want to be the centre of attention". Risible!
So speaks someone who has sought to be the centre of attention in everything she does !

She's right though. She would be the centre of attention. And that wouldn't be good.

Yes. But why does she feel the need to say that. She had a plausible excuse. She should have STFU.

But she has chosen to make the story about her instead

Blimey she really can't win.

Says nothing: heartless b*tch
Says I'm coming: me me me
Says I'm not coming: heartless b*tch

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.

Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.

Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?

If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.

When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.

I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster

We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?

Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.

China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference

Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?

Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.

It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.

But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.

Gallowgate said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.

Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.

Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?

If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.

When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.

I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster

We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?

Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.

China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference

Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?

Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.

It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.

But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.

Can't UKGI or whatever simply "own" significant shareholdings in these companies in the same way they "own" NatWest?

P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on.
If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.

And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.

We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..

I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.

Gallowgate said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.

Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.

Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?

If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.

When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.

I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster

We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?

Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.

China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference

Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?

Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.

It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.

But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.

Can't UKGI or whatever simply "own" significant shareholdings in these companies in the same way they "own" NatWest?

P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?

kjh said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.

The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.

Ahem. *Liverpool Labour waves*

Because there is no history of Labour local government corruption going back many decades is there? It almost defines what Socialism is.

So it is okay then if they are all at it then?

Cicero said:

Floater said:

Jonathan said:

Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.

The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.

Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?

Partisan much.......

Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.

geoffw said:

OldKingCole said:

geoffw said:

Charles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

February exports to the EU rebounded by more than imports did: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56729631

Didn't see that coming. Impressive. Due to us being in lockdown perhaps?

I love the phrasing

Exports “partially rebounded” by 47%... [partial, shakes head, not good]

Imports showed a “weaker rebound” of 7% [weaker, shakes head, not good]

Personally I think exports +47% and imports +7% is fantastic

In large it reflects the relative falls in GDP during the pandemic. Of course it is 'a good thing' to move towards balance in the current account, but the decline in imports is because of falls in consumption and consumption is a better surrogate for welfare than GDP.

The complaints over export falls were, IIRC, largely from relatively small firms in the food trade, and referred to fresh food. Again IIRC there was a fall in general activity December - January, due to pre-stocking thread of what was expected to be a difficult, but probably short-term problem.
I also get the impression that large companies were/are better able to cope with the vastly increased paperwork than smaller ones.

Quite willing, of course, to be corrected.

My comment was to counter the faint whiff of mercantalist thinking in discussions of trade balances.

Cicero said:

Floater said:

Jonathan said:

Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.

The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.

Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?

Partisan much.......

Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.

eek said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.

Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.

Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change

Cameron is following in the Blair pattern.

But, as usual, comes across as a pound shop Blair.

Blair had JP Morgan giving him millions while Cameron has the Greensill humiliation.

I think most people would have looked at Greensill and kept on looking...

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on.
If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.

And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.

We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..

I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.

If we get to 34 million first doses by the end of the month (from 32,190,576 as of yesterday's figures for the 11th), we'd need to average 600,000 first doses per day through May to get to 52 million total.
It would only need to average 300,000 to do it by the end of June.

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.

Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.

Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change

A distinction needs to be made between expertise and improper influence. It would be bizarre if a former PM was unable to receive payment for making a speech about current affairs. At the micro end of the scale, I was paid £400 by a university recently for advising them on how to give Select Committees evidence in a way that would be helpful to the committee's enquiry and the university's standing. Obviously they wouldn't have asked me if I didn't have the experience, and I don't feel I've done anything improper. The same applies, writ large, if any of the above offer advice based on their experience. If they'd previously been senior engineers and were paid to give talks about engineering, that'd be fine too.

As Cyxlefree says, the problem about Cameron's intervention is that it apparently uses connections to lobby for financial gain, in a way really not open to almost any other company, and the recipients seem to have at least tried to appear obliging.

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. B, a 'gang'. Well, quite.

Meanwhile, more gang members have been flying jets in Taiwanese airspace.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56728072

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?

Nigelb said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?

For the same reasons the US probably won't now use the AZN vaccine ?

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Cicero said:

Floater said:

Jonathan said:

Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.

The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.

Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?

Partisan much.......

Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.

Cameron saw no money.

Blair trousered the million quid for the Party from Bernie.

You were saying?

That was while in office.

A case can be made however that that was the most effective and cheapest bribe in history. Ecclestone paid the money over, got the deal he wanted and, by way of a bonus, then got his money back.

That is true genius.

How do you think one turns a business worth a few million, into a business worth a few billion? 🏎️

kjh said:

Floater said:

Jonathan said:

Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.

The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.

Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?

Partisan much.......

As per last time you posted this Floater, does that make it alright then?

squareroot2 said:

kjh said:

Floater said:

Jonathan said:

Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.

The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.

Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?

Partisan much.......

As per last time you posted this Floater, does that make it alright then?

I think it's a case of degree...the left always assume the right are at it..

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on.
If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.

And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.

We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..

I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.

Just booked in for my jab tomorrow!

turbotubbs said:

Nigelb said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?

For the same reasons the US probably won't now use the AZN vaccine ?

Some safety concerns and enough supply of other vaccines? That would be fine. Just a shame as the lure of a one shot vaccine to finish off has a certain appeal. Although we now know that one shot of the AZ, Pfizer etc is actually pretty good on its own, especially when used in the younger age groups.

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on.
If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.

And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.

We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..

I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.

If we get to 34 million first doses by the end of the month (from 32,190,576 as of yesterday's figures for the 11th), we'd need to average 600,000 first doses per day through May to get to 52 million total.
It would only need to average 300,000 to do it by the end of June.

Yes, I think 600k per day first doses in May isn't very likely, especially as I don't think the government will be provisioning AZ for first doses for anyone under 40 or beyond the end of this month for anyone due to the necessary long gap between doses. I think the peak rate we'll hit between Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax first doses in May is going to be about 2.5m per week and there are about 15-17m people that will need first doses from the remaining groups from the beginning of May so with ramp up to that number and some slowdown for second doses I'd stick with the end of June for all first doses and I'd guess that by the end of July we'll have fully vaccinated over 90% of the adult population with two doses.

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on.
If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.

And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.

We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..

I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.

If we get to 34 million first doses by the end of the month (from 32,190,576 as of yesterday's figures for the 11th), we'd need to average 600,000 first doses per day through May to get to 52 million total.
It would only need to average 300,000 to do it by the end of June.

Yes, I think 600k per day first doses in May isn't very likely, especially as I don't think the government will be provisioning AZ for first doses for anyone under 40 or beyond the end of this month for anyone due to the necessary long gap between doses. I think the peak rate we'll hit between Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax first doses in May is going to be about 2.5m per week and there are about 15-17m people that will need first doses from the remaining groups from the beginning of May so with ramp up to that number and some slowdown for second doses I'd stick with the end of June for all first doses and I'd guess that by the end of July we'll have fully vaccinated over 90% of the adult population with two doses.

Fair enough.
We'd still have every adult first-dosed by around the 21st of June unlocking date. While it won't have had time to kick in for the last 5-7 million or so, it'll still have an impact on transmission even so.

Philip_Thompson said:

turbotubbs said:

Nigelb said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.

I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.

I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.

That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?

For the same reasons the US probably won't now use the AZN vaccine ?

Some safety concerns and enough supply of other vaccines? That would be fine. Just a shame as the lure of a one shot vaccine to finish off has a certain appeal. Although we now know that one shot of the AZ, Pfizer etc is actually pretty good on its own, especially when used in the younger age groups.

I have a theory that one shot of the other vaccines would be every bit as effective as one shot of J&J.

The only difference I suspect is that J&J was tested as a one shot and the others weren't.

Just a theory, but the numbers seem to line up that way. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Malmesbury said:

Gallowgate said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.

Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.

Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?

If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.

When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.

I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster

We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?

Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.

China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference

Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?

Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.

It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.

But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.

Can't UKGI or whatever simply "own" significant shareholdings in these companies in the same way they "own" NatWest?

P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?

The problem you get, then, is the government starts trying to "protect" the business in question. The biggest problem, in the heyday of nationalised industries was that a subsidy till the next election was often the simplest political option.

There was one steel works, IRRC, where the sensible thing to do was demolish it and build a new one in a better location. To the government this meant demolishing a place of employment in a government constituency. The new one would take years to build, in a firm opposition constituency. And would employ less people when built. So they threw in some more subsidy....

Sandpit said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

GDP figures OK this morning.

Revision up from -2.9 to -2.2% for January, and weak growth in February of 0.4%. Historic revisions made the original fall harder and recovery stronger which appears to be a timing effect over the course of last year.

Therefore the gap to the start of the pandemic has closed from a reported 9% at the end of January to 7.8% at the end of February.

Good news with the revisions. The initial ONS estimates of GDP are nearly always rather on the pessimistic side.

Anabobazina said:

The rapidity with which 45-year-olds seem to be getting appointments suggests that the supply crunch might have been overstated. That said, it could simply be early bird syndrome, and those that leave the booking until later today will have a longer wait?

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.

Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.

Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change

A distinction needs to be made between expertise and improper influence. It would be bizarre if a former PM was unable to receive payment for making a speech about current affairs. At the micro end of the scale, I was paid £400 by a university recently for advising them on how to give Select Committees evidence in a way that would be helpful to the committee's enquiry and the university's standing. Obviously they wouldn't have asked me if I didn't have the experience, and I don't feel I've done anything improper. The same applies, writ large, if any of the above offer advice based on their experience. If they'd previously been senior engineers and were paid to give talks about engineering, that'd be fine too.

As Cyxlefree says, the problem about Cameron's intervention is that it apparently uses connections to lobby for financial gain, in a way really not open to almost any other company, and the recipients seem to have at least tried to appear obliging.

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

The rapidity with which 45-year-olds seem to be getting appointments suggests that the supply crunch might have been overstated. That said, it could simply be early bird syndrome, and those that leave the booking until later today will have a longer wait?

I think it was partly expectations management. From the end of April we're going to be adding Pfizer back into the first dose programme and from early May we'll have Novavax (sadly a month later than expected due to the trial data being a bit messier than expected and slower to come in because of crashing incidence in the UK).

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!

I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.

I think the problem for Welsh Labour in exploiting this one is they don’t want anyone to be talking about corruption in any way, shape, or form. It raises too many awkward questions for them. Even Plaid Cymru aren’t squeaky clean given their links to the infamous Mark James.

The Liberal Democrats may talk about it I suppose, but I doubt if anyone will be listening. Jon Ossoff v David Perdue they ain’t.

That’s the problem when you have widespread corruption scandals across all parties. Nobody dares to weaponise it in case it backfires on them.

Exposure to Gupta's GFG Alliance is ultimately responsible for Greensill Capital's ultimate insolvency.

Have you looked at the Welsh & Scottish politicians who Gupta purchased (e.g., a familiar friend, Carwyn Jones, is there on the global advisory board of the GFG Alliance)?

Because, when you go shopping, you might as well buy the full set of politicians from all parties. They're cheap enough.

And to go back to Welsh Labour, Carwyn deftly batted away criticisms of this a year ago, but he may not find it quite so easy now.

ydoethur said:

I love the headline!

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!

I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.

I think the problem for Welsh Labour in exploiting this one is they don’t want anyone to be talking about corruption in any way, shape, or form. It raises too many awkward questions for them. Even Plaid Cymru aren’t squeaky clean given their links to the infamous Mark James.

The Liberal Democrats may talk about it I suppose, but I doubt if anyone will be listening. Jon Ossoff v David Perdue they ain’t.

That’s the problem when you have widespread corruption scandals across all parties. Nobody dares to weaponise it in case it backfires on them.

Exposure to Gupta's GFG Alliance is ultimately responsible for Greensill Capital's ultimate insolvency.

Have you looked at the Welsh & Scottish politicians who Gupta purchased (e.g., a familiar friend, Carwyn Jones, is there on the global advisory board of the GFG Alliance)?

Because, when you go shopping, you might as well buy the full set of politicians from all parties. They're cheap enough.

And to go back to Welsh Labour, Carwyn deftly batted away criticisms of this a year ago, but he may not find it quite so easy now.

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

I love the headline!

Glad you noticed!

LostPassword said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Thompson, aye, but age affects people differently.

It also depends how sharp potential replacements are, and whether biding their time or acting more swiftly is in their interests.

The lack of a proper handing over/succession mechanism in the Roman Empire caused significant trouble from early days, and played no small roles in civil wars becoming endemic.

Xi seems to be more Stalin than Khrushchev. I don't think he's going to be ousted.

The succession problems will come after.

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:

There may be more to this yet but so far the problem with Greensill is that they lent far too much money to Gupta for the Liberty group. AIUI the government has responded by withdrawing their guarantees for those loans since they were not issued in accordance with the scheme. Bad news for Liberty creditors when that group inevitably goes bust, bad news for the Scottish government who guaranteed £500m of those loans but not particularly bad news for the UK taxpayer as a whole.

The suggestion that the "security" for Gupta loans was fake invoices is troubling. It shows a lack of due diligence on the part of Greensill. A non banking group turned out not to be as good as a bank at spotting inconsistencies (although it may be a bit early for the banks to be given a clean bill of health).

It seems inevitable that other loans which were issued with government guarantees will turn out to be bad. But this is part of a wider picture where the government was providing massive "bounce back" loans and guarantees across the economy to stop collapse in a time of lockdown. That seems to have largely worked, the odd retail group apart, we have not seen anything like the consequences that we should for a 5-10% fall in GDP. What we will see over the coming year is a fair number of businesses going bust and such loans going bad. No doubt Rishi will get some flack for this but the consequences of not acting could have been much, much worse. Many will describe these bad loans as a "scandal" and no doubt it will be claimed that there was corruption and cronyism. We shall see and much will depend upon the extent of taxpayer largesse but so far, Greensill apart, the performance of the Treasury has been not much short of incredible.

David I think you are being naive.

I think that Greensill knew *exactly* what they were doing. It wasn’t crappy due diligence. It was fraud (in my view)

In mine as well.

ping said:

DavidL said:

What was Greensill actually selling? It sounds from what I have read no more than a glorified factoring service. Was there any more to it? I am not sure I understand what he was offering the NHS staff either.

This is the part that I don’t get.

Why would the govt/nhs need factoring services?

Seems like parasitism to me.

It doesn't. That's why we need to understand what it is now going out for tender for and why.