Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on. If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.
And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.
We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..
I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
Typo in the last sentence: it's Clown and Clown.
Pbmoderator, I think ScottP has hacked CR's account!
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on. If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.
And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.
We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..
We have hoped that hope before, only to see the promised vaccines not arrive.
But yes, it does look a though we will enter the Summer Equinox and final removal of restrictions in a rather handy place. The lost vaccines has robbed us of the chance to advance that lifting by a couple of weeks.
Well,knock me down with a feather. Ms Markle, according to the Daily Mirror, isn't coming to the funeral, "because she doesn't want to be the centre of attention". Risible! So speaks someone who has sought to be the centre of attention in everything she does !
She's right though. She would be the centre of attention. And that wouldn't be good.
Yes. But why does she feel the need to say that. She had a plausible excuse. She should have STFU.
But she has chosen to make the story about her instead
Blimey she really can't win.
Says nothing: heartless b*tch Says I'm coming: me me me Says I'm not coming: heartless b*tch
Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.
The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.
Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?
Partisan much.......
Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.
Well,knock me down with a feather. Ms Markle, according to the Daily Mirror, isn't coming to the funeral, "because she doesn't want to be the centre of attention". Risible! So speaks someone who has sought to be the centre of attention in everything she does !
She's right though. She would be the centre of attention. And that wouldn't be good.
Yes. But why does she feel the need to say that. She had a plausible excuse. She should have STFU.
But she has chosen to make the story about her instead
Blimey she really can't win.
Says nothing: heartless b*tch Says I'm coming: me me me Says I'm not coming: heartless b*tch
Some people just have an irrational hatred of Megan. The rest of us just ignore her and carry on with our lives.
Well,knock me down with a feather. Ms Markle, according to the Daily Mirror, isn't coming to the funeral, "because she doesn't want to be the centre of attention". Risible! So speaks someone who has sought to be the centre of attention in everything she does !
She's right though. She would be the centre of attention. And that wouldn't be good.
Yes. But why does she feel the need to say that. She had a plausible excuse. She should have STFU.
But she has chosen to make the story about her instead
Blimey she really can't win.
Says nothing: heartless b*tch Says I'm coming: me me me Says I'm not coming: heartless b*tch
Not at all.
I think it was an elegant solution to take doctors advice not to come (I think she should have come to support her husband but that’s up to them).
But not to come because of doctors advice and then brief out a story designed to create a positive news cycle about her is despicable.
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
Agreed, that's a good idea. PPP (as popularised by Major and then carried over by Brown) got an exceedingly bad press as they didn't understand the asset base or risk profile - they just thought private companies would always do better than public - so they contracted it out, didn't bother commercially managing it, and either made private sector firms large profits or made them go bust.
But, there are all sorts of public and private partnerships and alliancing structures that can work very well - the water industry, Sellafield and even Network Rail is looking to introduce them at present.
Just going behind the story for a moment, how about this thesis.
The public sector is a market spending and responsible for 40%+ of the total economy. It is gigantic compared with every other. Operating in it is a winner, not least because it pays its bills, can print money and doesn't go insolvent.
Very few individuals have the wish, or the ability or the riskiness to get deeply into it, and those that do are risk takers, change makers, and as a rule believe that rules are there to be broken. Within that group most will have a history and character they don't want examined.
The state has no choice but to deal with these people because the state itself is endemically incompetent and there is no known cure. The poor paying public can vote between these options:
A state which is directed towards being reasonably honest in some respects, but allows incompetent narcissists in on every level and is basically a coalition of idealists and bad people; Venezuela-lite (Mr Corbyn's state would look a bit like this).
or
A state, which is the one we get, which allows chancers who are good at making fortunes in on every level because there is no-one else who is both willing and able to do the rewarding but dirty work of the modern complex state.
Well,knock me down with a feather. Ms Markle, according to the Daily Mirror, isn't coming to the funeral, "because she doesn't want to be the centre of attention". Risible! So speaks someone who has sought to be the centre of attention in everything she does !
She's right though. She would be the centre of attention. And that wouldn't be good.
Yes. But why does she feel the need to say that. She had a plausible excuse. She should have STFU.
But she has chosen to make the story about her instead
Blimey she really can't win.
Says nothing: heartless b*tch Says I'm coming: me me me Says I'm not coming: heartless b*tch
It's really not difficult. You say some nice words about the deceased when you find out of their passing, then nothing - as in keep your mouth shut, don't brief your friends and message journalists - until after the funeral.
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
Can't UKGI or whatever simply "own" significant shareholdings in these companies in the same way they "own" NatWest?
P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
Agreed, that's a good idea. PPP (as popularised by Major and then carried over by Brown) got an exceedingly bad press as they didn't understand the asset base or risk profile - they just thought private companies would always do better than public - so they contracted it out, didn't bother commercially managing it, and either made private sector firms large profits or made them go bust.
But, there are all sorts of public and private partnerships and alliancing structures that can work very well - the water industry, Sellafield and even Network Rail is looking to introduce them at present.
The issue is that PFI (I assume you meant that not PPP) was used to finance operating risk when it should have been used for construction and delivery risk. It’s great as a form of asset financing
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
Can't UKGI or whatever simply "own" significant shareholdings in these companies in the same way they "own" NatWest?
P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?
Possibly yes - the issue is that NatWest has not been an effective part of the economy for years because they are scared of their own shadow. The balance is how to make sure that companies operate efficiently without bilking the State.
Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.
The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.
Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?
Partisan much.......
Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.
Cameron saw no money.
Blair trousered the million quid for the Party from Bernie.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on. If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.
And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.
We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..
I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.
If we get to 34 million first doses by the end of the month (from 32,190,576 as of yesterday's figures for the 11th), we'd need to average 600,000 first doses per day through May to get to 52 million total. It would only need to average 300,000 to do it by the end of June.
Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.
The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.
Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?
Partisan much.......
Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.
Cameron saw no money.
Blair trousered the million quid for the Party from Bernie.
You were saying?
That was while in office.
A case can be made however that that was the most effective and cheapest bribe in history. Ecclestone paid the money over, got the deal he wanted and, by way of a bonus, then got his money back.
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
Can't UKGI or whatever simply "own" significant shareholdings in these companies in the same way they "own" NatWest?
P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?
The problem you get, then, is the government starts trying to "protect" the business in question. The biggest problem, in the heyday of nationalised industries was that a subsidy till the next election was often the simplest political option.
There was one steel works, IRRC, where the sensible thing to do was demolish it and build a new one in a better location. To the government this meant demolishing a place of employment in a government constituency. The new one would take years to build, in a firm opposition constituency. And would employ less people when built. So they threw in some more subsidy....
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
An interesting idea, which circles back to some of the stuff talked about in the header. Government can borrow money a great deal more cheaply than almost all private sector entities, and has dedicated civil servants who are actually rather good at the task. Contracting out the raising of capital in whatever form, for enterprises essentially underwritten by government, seems to be a pointless and often costly exercise (see also the PFI adventures of G. Brown).
The management of such enterprises is arguably a different matter - though if government does not retain a certain amount of expertise in a given sector, how are they to judge who best to give such contracts to, and who will ensure such contracts don't unduly benefit the private sector party ?
Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.
The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.
Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?
Partisan much.......
Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.
Blair has a net worth of around £60 million now, he is the wealthiest ex UK PM still living (and actually wealthier than former US Presidents George W Bush and Obama who have net worths of $40 and $39 million respectively, Bill Clinton still higher at $75 million and Trump obviously as a billionaire before he was elected). Cameron also apparently now has a net worth of £40 million so not too far behind. https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/1178445/david-cameron-net-worth-book-news-net-worth-interview
However Blair's son Euan is even wealthier with a net worth of £73 million after selling his education start up company
Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.
Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.
Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change
Cameron is following in the Blair pattern.
But, as usual, comes across as a pound shop Blair.
Blair had JP Morgan giving him millions while Cameron has the Greensill humiliation.
I think most people would have looked at Greensill and kept on looking...
Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.
Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.
Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change
A distinction needs to be made between expertise and improper influence. It would be bizarre if a former PM was unable to receive payment for making a speech about current affairs. At the micro end of the scale, I was paid £400 by a university recently for advising them on how to give Select Committees evidence in a way that would be helpful to the committee's enquiry and the university's standing. Obviously they wouldn't have asked me if I didn't have the experience, and I don't feel I've done anything improper. The same applies, writ large, if any of the above offer advice based on their experience. If they'd previously been senior engineers and were paid to give talks about engineering, that'd be fine too.
As Cyxlefree says, the problem about Cameron's intervention is that it apparently uses connections to lobby for financial gain, in a way really not open to almost any other company, and the recipients seem to have at least tried to appear obliging.
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
Can't UKGI or whatever simply "own" significant shareholdings in these companies in the same way they "own" NatWest?
P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?
The problem you get, then, is the government starts trying to "protect" the business in question. The biggest problem, in the heyday of nationalised industries was that a subsidy till the next election was often the simplest political option.
There was one steel works, IRRC, where the sensible thing to do was demolish it and build a new one in a better location. To the government this meant demolishing a place of employment in a government constituency. The new one would take years to build, in a firm opposition constituency. And would employ less people when built. So they threw in some more subsidy....
You've just described the last 30 years of Britain's manufacturing - we could invest and be more productive but it's cheaper and easier to throw more minimum wage (unskilled) people at the problem.
Didn't see that coming. Impressive. Due to us being in lockdown perhaps?
I love the phrasing
Exports “partially rebounded” by 47%... [partial, shakes head, not good]
Imports showed a “weaker rebound” of 7% [weaker, shakes head, not good]
Personally I think exports +47% and imports +7% is fantastic
In large it reflects the relative falls in GDP during the pandemic. Of course it is 'a good thing' to move towards balance in the current account, but the decline in imports is because of falls in consumption and consumption is a better surrogate for welfare than GDP.
The complaints over export falls were, IIRC, largely from relatively small firms in the food trade, and referred to fresh food. Again IIRC there was a fall in general activity December - January, due to pre-stocking thread of what was expected to be a difficult, but probably short-term problem. I also get the impression that large companies were/are better able to cope with the vastly increased paperwork than smaller ones.
Quite willing, of course, to be corrected.
My comment was to counter the faint whiff of mercantalist thinking in discussions of trade balances.
Reading Pb posts tends, every so often, to set off a train of thought that wasn't in the original posters mind! But I agree; a cursory glance at a situation and then posting without a bit of thought isn't helpful.Or, perchance, wise.
Well,knock me down with a feather. Ms Markle, according to the Daily Mirror, isn't coming to the funeral, "because she doesn't want to be the centre of attention". Risible! So speaks someone who has sought to be the centre of attention in everything she does !
She's right though. She would be the centre of attention. And that wouldn't be good.
Yes. But why does she feel the need to say that. She had a plausible excuse. She should have STFU.
But she has chosen to make the story about her instead
Blimey she really can't win.
Says nothing: heartless b*tch Says I'm coming: me me me Says I'm not coming: heartless b*tch
Not at all.
I think it was an elegant solution to take doctors advice not to come (I think she should have come to support her husband but that’s up to them).
But not to come because of doctors advice and then brief out a story designed to create a positive news cycle about her is despicable.
And I would never call anyone a bitch.
Amounts to the same thing, Charles. One man's despicable (really - despicable? Of all the things in the world this is despicable?) is another man's b*tch.
And good also to see that you are using the Daily Mirror as your factchecking source. I just had to google MM because I have and had no idea about her various movements and intentions. That you knew shows an unhealthy obsession.
Which is fine. You wouldn't be alone. But then put yourself in the same basket as all those Daily Mirror/Mail reading punters.
As I have said many times previously, either you know the people involved in which case you should STFU or you don't, in which case you should STFU.
When I was at the Palace I knew I could have made £500 every week by divulging some tidbit or other - a nothing story, really - to the press but of course wouldn't have dreamt of doing so.
You position yourself as someone in the know. In which case fucking well behave yourself.
Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.
Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.
Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change
A distinction needs to be made between expertise and improper influence. It would be bizarre if a former PM was unable to receive payment for making a speech about current affairs. At the micro end of the scale, I was paid £400 by a university recently for advising them on how to give Select Committees evidence in a way that would be helpful to the committee's enquiry and the university's standing. Obviously they wouldn't have asked me if I didn't have the experience, and I don't feel I've done anything improper. The same applies, writ large, if any of the above offer advice based on their experience. If they'd previously been senior engineers and were paid to give talks about engineering, that'd be fine too.
As Cyxlefree says, the problem about Cameron's intervention is that it apparently uses connections to lobby for financial gain, in a way really not open to almost any other company, and the recipients seem to have at least tried to appear obliging.
I think it's actually worse than that - back in March / April last year he was using his access to try and protect Greensill in ways not available to Greensill's competitors.
Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.
The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.
Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?
Partisan much.......
Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.
Last year, Cameron took £111,457 from the public duty cost allowance for former Prime Ministers. Should he be able to do retain eligibility for this benefit as well as taking paid positions outside of politics?
Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.
Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.
Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change
Cameron is following in the Blair pattern.
But, as usual, comes across as a pound shop Blair.
Blair had JP Morgan giving him millions while Cameron has the Greensill humiliation.
I think most people would have looked at Greensill and kept on looking...
But Cameron isn't like most people.
Most people are able to do a useful job of work for which they are paid rather less than £100k.
Whereas Cameron believes he should receive millions but doesn't have the skillset to earn it.
Hence he was attracted to a bunch of shysters offering a fortune in return for vague services.
Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.
The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.
Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?
Partisan much.......
Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.
Cameron saw no money.
Blair trousered the million quid for the Party from Bernie.
You were saying?
That was while in office.
A case can be made however that that was the most effective and cheapest bribe in history. Ecclestone paid the money over, got the deal he wanted and, by way of a bonus, then got his money back.
That is true genius.
How do you think one turns a business worth a few million, into a business worth a few billion? 🏎️
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on. If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.
And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.
We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..
I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.
If we get to 34 million first doses by the end of the month (from 32,190,576 as of yesterday's figures for the 11th), we'd need to average 600,000 first doses per day through May to get to 52 million total. It would only need to average 300,000 to do it by the end of June.
Yes, I think 600k per day first doses in May isn't very likely, especially as I don't think the government will be provisioning AZ for first doses for anyone under 40 or beyond the end of this month for anyone due to the necessary long gap between doses. I think the peak rate we'll hit between Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax first doses in May is going to be about 2.5m per week and there are about 15-17m people that will need first doses from the remaining groups from the beginning of May so with ramp up to that number and some slowdown for second doses I'd stick with the end of June for all first doses and I'd guess that by the end of July we'll have fully vaccinated over 90% of the adult population with two doses.
Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.
Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.
Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change
A distinction needs to be made between expertise and improper influence. It would be bizarre if a former PM was unable to receive payment for making a speech about current affairs. At the micro end of the scale, I was paid £400 by a university recently for advising them on how to give Select Committees evidence in a way that would be helpful to the committee's enquiry and the university's standing. Obviously they wouldn't have asked me if I didn't have the experience, and I don't feel I've done anything improper. The same applies, writ large, if any of the above offer advice based on their experience. If they'd previously been senior engineers and were paid to give talks about engineering, that'd be fine too.
As Cyxlefree says, the problem about Cameron's intervention is that it apparently uses connections to lobby for financial gain, in a way really not open to almost any other company, and the recipients seem to have at least tried to appear obliging.
It's a matter of degree though.
An organisation paying you for what amounted to some specialist training in select committee language and process, as someone who had once sat on the other side of the desk, is quite different to a company hiring a former minister - purely because they're still friends with current ministers and can put in a good private word about the company outside the proper processes.
Which is why your conscience is clear, and DC going to be in a load of trouble.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!
I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
For the same reasons the US probably won't now use the AZN vaccine ?
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on. If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.
And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.
We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..
I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
For the same reasons the US probably won't now use the AZN vaccine ?
Some safety concerns and enough supply of other vaccines? That would be fine. Just a shame as the lure of a one shot vaccine to finish off has a certain appeal. Although we now know that one shot of the AZ, Pfizer etc is actually pretty good on its own, especially when used in the younger age groups.
Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.
The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.
Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?
Partisan much.......
Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.
Cameron saw no money.
Blair trousered the million quid for the Party from Bernie.
You were saying?
That was while in office.
A case can be made however that that was the most effective and cheapest bribe in history. Ecclestone paid the money over, got the deal he wanted and, by way of a bonus, then got his money back.
That is true genius.
How do you think one turns a business worth a few million, into a business worth a few billion? 🏎️
Dave is simply doing what Tories have done for decades, it’s going on right now up and down the country. It almost defines what Toryism is.
The curious thing is why they are calling Dave out on this, right now.
Are you really going to pretend Labour is clean?
Partisan much.......
Actually "they´re all the same" is the reason why the UK is facing so many serious problems. The punters are not discriminating between good and bad either between parties or within them. What Cameron has done is drastically worse than anything Tony Blair ever did. Likewise Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have continued to offer service without the expectations that both Cameron and Blair seem to have that they are entitled to be multi-millionaires.
Cameron saw no money.
Blair trousered the million quid for the Party from Bernie.
You were saying?
That was while in office.
A case can be made however that that was the most effective and cheapest bribe in history. Ecclestone paid the money over, got the deal he wanted and, by way of a bonus, then got his money back.
That is true genius.
How do you think one turns a business worth a few million, into a business worth a few billion? 🏎️
Saving on haircuts.
And not buying avocados and Starbucks Frappuccinos, I believe.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on. If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.
And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.
We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..
I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
For the same reasons the US probably won't now use the AZN vaccine ?
Some safety concerns and enough supply of other vaccines? That would be fine. Just a shame as the lure of a one shot vaccine to finish off has a certain appeal. Although we now know that one shot of the AZ, Pfizer etc is actually pretty good on its own, especially when used in the younger age groups.
I have a theory that one shot of the other vaccines would be every bit as effective as one shot of J&J.
The only difference I suspect is that J&J was tested as a one shot and the others weren't.
Just a theory, but the numbers seem to line up that way. 🤷🏻♂️
Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!
I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.
It was more the Blairite New Labour and Cameroon Coalition years consensus ie socially liberal, fiscally conservative and perfectly relaxed about people getting 'filthy rich' in Mandelson's words.
Brown and May were both arguably closer to each other than Blair and Cameron ie more statist and personally more socially conservative.
Boris despite being very much in the New Labour/Cameroon mould in his personal life and philosophy cares more about being elected and has adjusted his government to be more statist and interventionist and to take a tougher line on immigration post Brexit to suit the current public mood
Mr. B, I suspect Xi will end up being immensely powerful for a while, but the end of his time in power will be far more tumultuous than the smooth handover from Hu to Xi.
His ending of the unwritten agreement not to go after party leaders for corruption also means that'll be on the table, making any future leadership contest all the more bitter, as it'll be a matter of survival for some.
Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!
I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.
I think the problem for Welsh Labour in exploiting this one is they don’t want anyone to be talking about corruption in any way, shape, or form. It raises too many awkward questions for them. Even Plaid Cymru aren’t squeaky clean given their links to the infamous Mark James.
The Liberal Democrats may talk about it I suppose, but I doubt if anyone will be listening. Jon Ossoff v David Perdue they ain’t.
That’s the problem when you have widespread corruption scandals across all parties. Nobody dares to weaponise it in case it backfires on them.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on. If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.
And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.
We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..
I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.
If we get to 34 million first doses by the end of the month (from 32,190,576 as of yesterday's figures for the 11th), we'd need to average 600,000 first doses per day through May to get to 52 million total. It would only need to average 300,000 to do it by the end of June.
Yes, I think 600k per day first doses in May isn't very likely, especially as I don't think the government will be provisioning AZ for first doses for anyone under 40 or beyond the end of this month for anyone due to the necessary long gap between doses. I think the peak rate we'll hit between Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax first doses in May is going to be about 2.5m per week and there are about 15-17m people that will need first doses from the remaining groups from the beginning of May so with ramp up to that number and some slowdown for second doses I'd stick with the end of June for all first doses and I'd guess that by the end of July we'll have fully vaccinated over 90% of the adult population with two doses.
Fair enough. We'd still have every adult first-dosed by around the 21st of June unlocking date. While it won't have had time to kick in for the last 5-7 million or so, it'll still have an impact on transmission even so.
From a PR perspective I think Greensil is just the wrong size for Cameron's reputation. Big enough to be a bit insidious but small enough to be faintly risible.
If he'd been on the board of some megacorp like PWC then it would probably be seen as par for the course. If he'd been lobbying for some worthy little micro business near Whitney then it probably would have seemed harmless or naive.
Mr. B, I suspect Xi will end up being immensely powerful for a while, but the end of his time in power will be far more tumultuous than the smooth handover from Hu to Xi.
His ending of the unwritten agreement not to go after party leaders for corruption also means that'll be on the table, making any future leadership contest all the more bitter, as it'll be a matter of survival for some.
Quite possibly - but he could do an immense amount of damage while he's still around.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
We just won't need it and J&J likely carries the same risks as AZ wrt blood clots so may not get approve in under 40s anyway.
I think the government may defer the order into a gen 2 single shot for groups 1-9.
MPs have privileged access to ministers. That is the point of representatives. That courtesy is extended to former PMs.
The good thing is that the civil service and ministers collectively judged - having looked at it - that Cameron was peddling something they didn’t want to buy.
It actually seems to be that the government and ministers behaved properly here. The person who - once again - demonstrates that he simply lacks judgement and didn’t do the hard graft necessary was Cameron.
Er ..... the government did buy some of what Greensill was offering - both the advance payment scheme to pharmacists and, later, becoming accredited under the Covid loans scheme, hence the loans made to Liberty Steel and others, for which the taxpayer is now responsible.
The cost to taxpayers is going to be significant. That is not what was promised and its worth understanding why and making sure the same things are not happening now.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
I'm expecting us to be exploring just how high the daily vaccination numbers can possibly get as May goes on. If we average over 1 million per day (first plus second doses) through May, I wouldn't be surprised - we've seen that the distribution and delivery system can cope with numbers on that scale, so when supply constraints disappear, there's no reason to prevent it.
And if we're getting Moderna and Novavax in wholesale fashion for first doses to add to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca second doses, supply constraints should be far less of an issue.
We could easily end May with every adult first-dosed and the majority of Groups 1-9 (30 million or so) double-dosed..
I think that would be tough. If Novavax had arrived in early April as we'd originally hoped then we could have done it. I think we're looking at end of June because the 18-29 cohort is fairly big and has less crossover with groups 2, 4 and 6 so is starting from a lower base than 30+ and 40+.
If we get to 34 million first doses by the end of the month (from 32,190,576 as of yesterday's figures for the 11th), we'd need to average 600,000 first doses per day through May to get to 52 million total. It would only need to average 300,000 to do it by the end of June.
Yes, I think 600k per day first doses in May isn't very likely, especially as I don't think the government will be provisioning AZ for first doses for anyone under 40 or beyond the end of this month for anyone due to the necessary long gap between doses. I think the peak rate we'll hit between Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax first doses in May is going to be about 2.5m per week and there are about 15-17m people that will need first doses from the remaining groups from the beginning of May so with ramp up to that number and some slowdown for second doses I'd stick with the end of June for all first doses and I'd guess that by the end of July we'll have fully vaccinated over 90% of the adult population with two doses.
Fair enough. We'd still have every adult first-dosed by around the 21st of June unlocking date. While it won't have had time to kick in for the last 5-7 million or so, it'll still have an impact on transmission even so.
Yes, were going to be in a great position heading into the final unlockdown step.
Revision up from -2.9 to -2.2% for January, and weak growth in February of 0.4%. Historic revisions made the original fall harder and recovery stronger which appears to be a timing effect over the course of last year.
Therefore the gap to the start of the pandemic has closed from a reported 9% at the end of January to 7.8% at the end of February.
There's always been elements of corruption/cronyism on both sides. However, it's no surprise that more attention is paid when there are allegations about the governing party. On Cameron/Greensill, the fact that the government itself has ordered an inquiry (when it usually just ignores such allegations) suggests that there may be an issue that they can't ignore.
In the medium to long term, I wonder whether Starmer will benefit? He may be dull/boring, but he strikes me as squeaky clean and incorruptible, and with integrity. I may be wrong, of course. After all, he did take the knee, so he's probably being financed by BLM............
The rapidity with which 45-year-olds seem to be getting appointments suggests that the supply crunch might have been overstated. That said, it could simply be early bird syndrome, and those that leave the booking until later today will have a longer wait?
From a PR perspective I think Greensil is just the wrong size for Cameron's reputation. Big enough to be a bit insidious but small enough to be faintly risible.
If he'd been on the board of some megacorp like PWC then it would probably be seen as par for the course. If he'd been lobbying for some worthy little micro business near Whitney then it probably would have seemed harmless or naive.
It's also that it's a pretty dodgy firm. Anybody with half an ounce of common sense would have distanced themselves from Greensill before this.
Cameron saw the money, and didn't clock, or didn't care, that a mid size firm offering him £50m+ was likely to be a bit dodgy.
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
For the same reasons the US probably won't now use the AZN vaccine ?
Some safety concerns and enough supply of other vaccines? That would be fine. Just a shame as the lure of a one shot vaccine to finish off has a certain appeal. Although we now know that one shot of the AZ, Pfizer etc is actually pretty good on its own, especially when used in the younger age groups.
I have a theory that one shot of the other vaccines would be every bit as effective as one shot of J&J.
The only difference I suspect is that J&J was tested as a one shot and the others weren't.
Just a theory, but the numbers seem to line up that way. 🤷🏻♂️
I think that is very likely. Conversely, it's very possible that J&J will need a booster shot to get to the levels of long-term protection which seems to be achieved by the other vaccines. They are conducting clinical trials on a two-dose regimen:
Revision up from -2.9 to -2.2% for January, and weak growth in February of 0.4%. Historic revisions made the original fall harder and recovery stronger which appears to be a timing effect over the course of last year.
Therefore the gap to the start of the pandemic has closed from a reported 9% at the end of January to 7.8% at the end of February.
Good news with the revisions. The initial ONS estimates of GDP are nearly always rather on the pessimistic side.
I still find it a rather low-wattage matter to be branded a "scandal". Several orders of magnitude less than that which sees Sarkozy wearing a tag for bribing a magistrate.
Cameron should have known better, which was known by those currently in Government. They politely listened to the former Prime Minister - and then ignored him.
Is trying to mountainise this molehill, following on from the similar Big Meh of Carrie's furnishings, an admission by the media that they can't get traction on PPE acquisition contracts?
If you look at all the loans guaranteed by the UK and Scottish governments to GFG/Liberty (of which more than half probably went via Greenhill), it will approach £1bn.
When that much taxpayers' money is spent supporting a businessman's luxury lifestyle, one should probably ask questions. When the sums are done, I suspect one will find that maybe half the missing funds went on employing people, and the other half has disappeared.
I don’t quite understand the obsession that government have with funding the steel Industry. But they appear to have (a) colossally fucked up and (b) been taken in by a plausible smooth-talking fraudster
We need a little bit of domestic steel capability for strategic assets like ships, aircraft and critical I-beams and L-beams for construction?
Sure, UK steel will be extremely expensive and uncompetitive but you don't want to be 100% reliant on China.
China is mainly bulk steel not the specialty stuff you reference
Ok, but we need some domestic capacity, right?
Don't get me wrong, I'm free market, but I'd be willing to help at least one smelting works ticking over - just for resilience.
It doesn’t hurt - historically I would have been fine relying on Arcelor’s mills in France but that now seems... unwise.
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
Can't UKGI or whatever simply "own" significant shareholdings in these companies in the same way they "own" NatWest?
P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?
The problem you get, then, is the government starts trying to "protect" the business in question. The biggest problem, in the heyday of nationalised industries was that a subsidy till the next election was often the simplest political option.
There was one steel works, IRRC, where the sensible thing to do was demolish it and build a new one in a better location. To the government this meant demolishing a place of employment in a government constituency. The new one would take years to build, in a firm opposition constituency. And would employ less people when built. So they threw in some more subsidy....
Do Equinor and/or companies owned by the Government Pension Fund of Norway suffer from the same issues?
Mr. B, I suspect Xi will end up being immensely powerful for a while, but the end of his time in power will be far more tumultuous than the smooth handover from Hu to Xi.
His ending of the unwritten agreement not to go after party leaders for corruption also means that'll be on the table, making any future leadership contest all the more bitter, as it'll be a matter of survival for some.
I suspect that Xi, like Putin, will probably be in power now until death or until he becomes infirm. I don't think either will relinquish power easily.
He's 67 and Putin is 68, both could easily be in power another couple of decades.
Revision up from -2.9 to -2.2% for January, and weak growth in February of 0.4%. Historic revisions made the original fall harder and recovery stronger which appears to be a timing effect over the course of last year.
Therefore the gap to the start of the pandemic has closed from a reported 9% at the end of January to 7.8% at the end of February.
Good news with the revisions. The initial ONS estimates of GDP are nearly always rather on the pessimistic side.
Same with their borrowing data.
I am usually quite critical of them for this, but in the middle of a pandemic, I'll let it slide. It's a difficult job.
Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!
I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.
I think the problem for Welsh Labour in exploiting this one is they don’t want anyone to be talking about corruption in any way, shape, or form. It raises too many awkward questions for them. Even Plaid Cymru aren’t squeaky clean given their links to the infamous Mark James.
The Liberal Democrats may talk about it I suppose, but I doubt if anyone will be listening. Jon Ossoff v David Perdue they ain’t.
That’s the problem when you have widespread corruption scandals across all parties. Nobody dares to weaponise it in case it backfires on them.
Exposure to Gupta's GFG Alliance is ultimately responsible for Greensill Capital's ultimate insolvency.
Have you looked at the Welsh & Scottish politicians who Gupta purchased (e.g., a familiar friend, Carwyn Jones, is there on the global advisory board of the GFG Alliance)?
Because, when you go shopping, you might as well buy the full set of politicians from all parties. They're cheap enough.
And to go back to Welsh Labour, Carwyn deftly batted away criticisms of this a year ago, but he may not find it quite so easy now.
The rapidity with which 45-year-olds seem to be getting appointments suggests that the supply crunch might have been overstated. That said, it could simply be early bird syndrome, and those that leave the booking until later today will have a longer wait?
I think it was partly expectations management. From the end of April we're going to be adding Pfizer back into the first dose programme and from early May we'll have Novavax (sadly a month later than expected due to the trial data being a bit messier than expected and slower to come in because of crashing incidence in the UK).
Also, @Black_Rook the Moderna rollout has started in England as well. I'm not sure why the vaccines minister said it would start in two weeks last week when the first delivery arrived. He must have got the dates mixed up.
I think the over 40s will take 3 weeks to get to 80% completion and then 35-39 year olds will be invited in early May, 30-34 just after the middle of May. I expect everyone under 50 from next week onwards will get Pfizer or Moderna for their first doses and in May we'll add Novavax to the mix.
I don't think we'll use the J&J vaccine at all.
That's interesting - I had thought the use of the one-shot J&J would be good. Any idea why we wouldn't now use it?
We just won't need it and J&J likely carries the same risks as AZ wrt blood clots so may not get approve in under 40s anyway.
I think the government may defer the order into a gen 2 single shot for groups 1-9.
Though they could well get the same thing from AZN.
It's possible that we'll end up donating all of our J&J, and the US their AZN shots ? They are both effective vaccines, and pretty similar, so arguably there isn't much to be gained from introducing yet another vaccine to each country's supply chain (along with the safety monitoring issues).
Of the current living former PMs Cameron seems to be very much in the Blair bracket with making money the primary motive.
Former PMs Brown and May for all their mistakes in power seem to be rather more austere in their approach, though they do still do paid speeches, Major made a significant amount via the Carlyle Group but is not in the Cameron or Blair category for cashing in.
Most former PMs used to go to the Lords, it seems they now largely avoid that but often look to further their business interests instead with maybe a foundation on the side eg the Blair Faith Foundation and Institute for Global Change
A distinction needs to be made between expertise and improper influence. It would be bizarre if a former PM was unable to receive payment for making a speech about current affairs. At the micro end of the scale, I was paid £400 by a university recently for advising them on how to give Select Committees evidence in a way that would be helpful to the committee's enquiry and the university's standing. Obviously they wouldn't have asked me if I didn't have the experience, and I don't feel I've done anything improper. The same applies, writ large, if any of the above offer advice based on their experience. If they'd previously been senior engineers and were paid to give talks about engineering, that'd be fine too.
As Cyxlefree says, the problem about Cameron's intervention is that it apparently uses connections to lobby for financial gain, in a way really not open to almost any other company, and the recipients seem to have at least tried to appear obliging.
I would imagine that 400 is money well spent to that organisation. But if it was 20,000, and you had made decisions when in power that benefitted that organisation financially, and you were paid for making an after dinner speech, it becomes something different.
Mr. Thompson, aye, but age affects people differently.
It also depends how sharp potential replacements are, and whether biding their time or acting more swiftly is in their interests.
The lack of a proper handing over/succession mechanism in the Roman Empire caused significant trouble from early days, and played no small roles in civil wars becoming endemic.
The rapidity with which 45-year-olds seem to be getting appointments suggests that the supply crunch might have been overstated. That said, it could simply be early bird syndrome, and those that leave the booking until later today will have a longer wait?
I think it was partly expectations management. From the end of April we're going to be adding Pfizer back into the first dose programme and from early May we'll have Novavax (sadly a month later than expected due to the trial data being a bit messier than expected and slower to come in because of crashing incidence in the UK).
Of all the reasons to have a delay, crashing incidence is probably the best "problem" to have.
Is all the data in now? Is it just a matter of time now, or more hurdles?
Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!
I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.
I think the problem for Welsh Labour in exploiting this one is they don’t want anyone to be talking about corruption in any way, shape, or form. It raises too many awkward questions for them. Even Plaid Cymru aren’t squeaky clean given their links to the infamous Mark James.
The Liberal Democrats may talk about it I suppose, but I doubt if anyone will be listening. Jon Ossoff v David Perdue they ain’t.
That’s the problem when you have widespread corruption scandals across all parties. Nobody dares to weaponise it in case it backfires on them.
Exposure to Gupta's GFG Alliance is ultimately responsible for Greensill Capital's ultimate insolvency.
Have you looked at the Welsh & Scottish politicians who Gupta purchased (e.g., a familiar friend, Carwyn Jones, is there on the global advisory board of the GFG Alliance)?
Because, when you go shopping, you might as well buy the full set of politicians from all parties. They're cheap enough.
And to go back to Welsh Labour, Carwyn deftly batted away criticisms of this a year ago, but he may not find it quite so easy now.
Didn’t know about Jones. I haven’t kept track of him since he quit, tbh.
That of course makes it even harder for Labour to go on corruption, which may be why they’re raising hell about Plaid’s adverts instead.
I can't seem to respond to @Charles's comment re there being no problem with the government using good ideas from Greensill even if he is a bad person.
So here is my answer:
I don't have a problem with the government looking at ideas provided they ask tough questions about the point and value of such schemes. They didn't last time and, unless, they're pressed, I fear that they won't this time. That's why I think this aspect of this affair is more important than what happened in the past and how daft Cameron was, even though it is the latter two which are getting the attention.
A half-way competent opposition would focus on what matters now as well as looking back. Honestly, I give them the bloody questions for free and they're still too lazy/stupid/ Indifferent to use them.
Mr. Thompson, aye, but age affects people differently.
It also depends how sharp potential replacements are, and whether biding their time or acting more swiftly is in their interests.
The lack of a proper handing over/succession mechanism in the Roman Empire caused significant trouble from early days, and played no small roles in civil wars becoming endemic.
Xi seems to be more Stalin than Khrushchev. I don't think he's going to be ousted.
Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!
I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.
I think the problem for Welsh Labour in exploiting this one is they don’t want anyone to be talking about corruption in any way, shape, or form. It raises too many awkward questions for them. Even Plaid Cymru aren’t squeaky clean given their links to the infamous Mark James.
The Liberal Democrats may talk about it I suppose, but I doubt if anyone will be listening. Jon Ossoff v David Perdue they ain’t.
That’s the problem when you have widespread corruption scandals across all parties. Nobody dares to weaponise it in case it backfires on them.
Exposure to Gupta's GFG Alliance is ultimately responsible for Greensill Capital's ultimate insolvency.
Have you looked at the Welsh & Scottish politicians who Gupta purchased (e.g., a familiar friend, Carwyn Jones, is there on the global advisory board of the GFG Alliance)?
Because, when you go shopping, you might as well buy the full set of politicians from all parties. They're cheap enough.
And to go back to Welsh Labour, Carwyn deftly batted away criticisms of this a year ago, but he may not find it quite so easy now.
The idea that you "purchase" politicians is naive and offensive.
You *rent* them. If they used to be lawyers, by the hour.
Interesting piece, nonetheless, move along, nothing to see. And by the way LOOK, Boris has now vaccinated over half of Wales!
I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.
I think the problem for Welsh Labour in exploiting this one is they don’t want anyone to be talking about corruption in any way, shape, or form. It raises too many awkward questions for them. Even Plaid Cymru aren’t squeaky clean given their links to the infamous Mark James.
The Liberal Democrats may talk about it I suppose, but I doubt if anyone will be listening. Jon Ossoff v David Perdue they ain’t.
That’s the problem when you have widespread corruption scandals across all parties. Nobody dares to weaponise it in case it backfires on them.
Exposure to Gupta's GFG Alliance is ultimately responsible for Greensill Capital's ultimate insolvency.
Have you looked at the Welsh & Scottish politicians who Gupta purchased (e.g., a familiar friend, Carwyn Jones, is there on the global advisory board of the GFG Alliance)?
Because, when you go shopping, you might as well buy the full set of politicians from all parties. They're cheap enough.
And to go back to Welsh Labour, Carwyn deftly batted away criticisms of this a year ago, but he may not find it quite so easy now.
The idea that you "purchase" politicians is naive and offensive.
You *rent* them. If they used to be lawyers, by the hour.
Not quite - you rent them but that renting of them may allow you to use their name in your marketing, potential long term.
Although, perhaps, I've spent too long dealing with tax avoidance schemes
Mr. Thompson, aye, but age affects people differently.
It also depends how sharp potential replacements are, and whether biding their time or acting more swiftly is in their interests.
The lack of a proper handing over/succession mechanism in the Roman Empire caused significant trouble from early days, and played no small roles in civil wars becoming endemic.
Xi seems to be more Stalin than Khrushchev. I don't think he's going to be ousted.
The succession problems will come after.
That's my thinking too. For both Xi and Putin.
And long-term its very bad news for both China and Russia.
Terrific header, @Cyclefree. Expertise shining through on this one. And I haven't checked the comments to see if there's been any of the usual nonsense, but it is NOT too long.
The one comment I'd make is that if the response to this latest scandal focuses on the rules, "the system", that will be a misfire. It's about culture, or to be more precise, about standards of behaviour by individuals in public life. These standards - of honesty, of integrity - should be high. Higher than those demanded in other fields. And if people fall short, there should be an uproar and there should be genuine adverse personal consequences. This does not seem to happen. There's a poverty of low expectations.
As to the way forward, I'm afraid there isn't one right now. No matter how many inquiries there are, or what they end up saying, it's impossible for this particular government to get a grip on this particular problem - rock bottom standards in public life - because it is led by an individual whose (very powerful) political brand is built upon encouraging the perception that such matters are "dull" and even a teeny bit "party pooping". So long as the public keep buying into the brand, keep rewarding its owner with their votes, there is no chance whatsoever of any progress on this. It will have to wait until there's a change at the top. Not any old change either. A big change.
There may be more to this yet but so far the problem with Greensill is that they lent far too much money to Gupta for the Liberty group. AIUI the government has responded by withdrawing their guarantees for those loans since they were not issued in accordance with the scheme. Bad news for Liberty creditors when that group inevitably goes bust, bad news for the Scottish government who guaranteed £500m of those loans but not particularly bad news for the UK taxpayer as a whole.
The suggestion that the "security" for Gupta loans was fake invoices is troubling. It shows a lack of due diligence on the part of Greensill. A non banking group turned out not to be as good as a bank at spotting inconsistencies (although it may be a bit early for the banks to be given a clean bill of health).
It seems inevitable that other loans which were issued with government guarantees will turn out to be bad. But this is part of a wider picture where the government was providing massive "bounce back" loans and guarantees across the economy to stop collapse in a time of lockdown. That seems to have largely worked, the odd retail group apart, we have not seen anything like the consequences that we should for a 5-10% fall in GDP. What we will see over the coming year is a fair number of businesses going bust and such loans going bad. No doubt Rishi will get some flack for this but the consequences of not acting could have been much, much worse. Many will describe these bad loans as a "scandal" and no doubt it will be claimed that there was corruption and cronyism. We shall see and much will depend upon the extent of taxpayer largesse but so far, Greensill apart, the performance of the Treasury has been not much short of incredible.
David I think you are being naive.
I think that Greensill knew *exactly* what they were doing. It wasn’t crappy due diligence. It was fraud (in my view)
What was Greensill actually selling? It sounds from what I have read no more than a glorified factoring service. Was there any more to it? I am not sure I understand what he was offering the NHS staff either.
This is the part that I don’t get.
Why would the govt/nhs need factoring services?
Seems like parasitism to me.
It doesn't. That's why we need to understand what it is now going out for tender for and why.
There may be more to this yet but so far the problem with Greensill is that they lent far too much money to Gupta for the Liberty group. AIUI the government has responded by withdrawing their guarantees for those loans since they were not issued in accordance with the scheme. Bad news for Liberty creditors when that group inevitably goes bust, bad news for the Scottish government who guaranteed £500m of those loans but not particularly bad news for the UK taxpayer as a whole.
The suggestion that the "security" for Gupta loans was fake invoices is troubling. It shows a lack of due diligence on the part of Greensill. A non banking group turned out not to be as good as a bank at spotting inconsistencies (although it may be a bit early for the banks to be given a clean bill of health).
It seems inevitable that other loans which were issued with government guarantees will turn out to be bad. But this is part of a wider picture where the government was providing massive "bounce back" loans and guarantees across the economy to stop collapse in a time of lockdown. That seems to have largely worked, the odd retail group apart, we have not seen anything like the consequences that we should for a 5-10% fall in GDP. What we will see over the coming year is a fair number of businesses going bust and such loans going bad. No doubt Rishi will get some flack for this but the consequences of not acting could have been much, much worse. Many will describe these bad loans as a "scandal" and no doubt it will be claimed that there was corruption and cronyism. We shall see and much will depend upon the extent of taxpayer largesse but so far, Greensill apart, the performance of the Treasury has been not much short of incredible.
David I think you are being naive.
I think that Greensill knew *exactly* what they were doing. It wasn’t crappy due diligence. It was fraud (in my view)
What was Greensill actually selling? It sounds from what I have read no more than a glorified factoring service. Was there any more to it? I am not sure I understand what he was offering the NHS staff either.
This is the part that I don’t get.
Why would the govt/nhs need factoring services?
Seems like parasitism to me.
It doesn't. That's why we need to understand what it is now going out for tender for and why.
There’s clearly a lot of tender consciences around right now. Do they count?
I'm perhaps alone in thinking this, but I wouldn't be surprised if Boris took this as an opportunity to settle a few scores with David Cameron. It's a helpful thing to have hanging over the former PM to discourage any criticisms in future?
Comments
But it does strike me as problematic supporting private companies. I wonder whether there should be a different model with the government retaining the equity but private companies having a long term management contract / profit share.
But yes, it does look a though we will enter the Summer Equinox and final removal of restrictions in a rather handy place. The lost vaccines has robbed us of the chance to advance that lifting by a couple of weeks.
Says nothing: heartless b*tch
Says I'm coming: me me me
Says I'm not coming: heartless b*tch
I think it was an elegant solution to take doctors advice not to come (I think she should have come to support her husband but that’s up to them).
But not to come because of doctors advice and then brief out a story designed to create a positive news cycle about her is despicable.
And I would never call anyone a bitch.
But, there are all sorts of public and private partnerships and alliancing structures that can work very well - the water industry, Sellafield and even Network Rail is looking to introduce them at present.
The public sector is a market spending and responsible for 40%+ of the total economy. It is gigantic compared with every other. Operating in it is a winner, not least because it pays its bills, can print money and doesn't go insolvent.
Very few individuals have the wish, or the ability or the riskiness to get deeply into it, and those that do are risk takers, change makers, and as a rule believe that rules are there to be broken. Within that group most will have a history and character they don't want examined.
The state has no choice but to deal with these people because the state itself is endemically incompetent and there is no known cure. The poor paying public can vote between these options:
A state which is directed towards being reasonably honest in some respects, but allows incompetent narcissists in on every level and is basically a coalition of idealists and bad people; Venezuela-lite (Mr Corbyn's state would look a bit like this).
or
A state, which is the one we get, which allows chancers who are good at making fortunes in on every level because there is no-one else who is both willing and able to do the rewarding but dirty work of the modern complex state.
P.S. when is the government going to re-privatise NatWest?
Blair trousered the million quid for the Party from Bernie.
You were saying?
It would only need to average 300,000 to do it by the end of June.
A case can be made however that that was the most effective and cheapest bribe in history. Ecclestone paid the money over, got the deal he wanted and, by way of a bonus, then got his money back.
That is true genius.
There was one steel works, IRRC, where the sensible thing to do was demolish it and build a new one in a better location. To the government this meant demolishing a place of employment in a government constituency. The new one would take years to build, in a firm opposition constituency. And would employ less people when built. So they threw in some more subsidy....
Both parties could do much better. But Tory Cameron =/= Labour Liverpool. Much as Labourites might try to go for equivalence to get them out a hole.
Government can borrow money a great deal more cheaply than almost all private sector entities, and has dedicated civil servants who are actually rather good at the task. Contracting out the raising of capital in whatever form, for enterprises essentially underwritten by government, seems to be a pointless and often costly exercise (see also the PFI adventures of G. Brown).
The management of such enterprises is arguably a different matter - though if government does not retain a certain amount of expertise in a given sector, how are they to judge who best to give such contracts to, and who will ensure such contracts don't unduly benefit the private sector party ?
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/1178445/david-cameron-net-worth-book-news-net-worth-interview
However Blair's son Euan is even wealthier with a net worth of £73 million after selling his education start up company
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tony-blairs-son-euan-now-23352182
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_net_worth
As Cyxlefree says, the problem about Cameron's intervention is that it apparently uses connections to lobby for financial gain, in a way really not open to almost any other company, and the recipients seem to have at least tried to appear obliging.
And good also to see that you are using the Daily Mirror as your factchecking source. I just had to google MM because I have and had no idea about her various movements and intentions. That you knew shows an unhealthy obsession.
Which is fine. You wouldn't be alone. But then put yourself in the same basket as all those Daily Mirror/Mail reading punters.
As I have said many times previously, either you know the people involved in which case you should STFU or you don't, in which case you should STFU.
When I was at the Palace I knew I could have made £500 every week by divulging some tidbit or other - a nothing story, really - to the press but of course wouldn't have dreamt of doing so.
You position yourself as someone in the know. In which case fucking well behave yourself.
https://hongkongfp.com/2021/04/13/video-gang-wielding-sledgehammers-ransack-hong-kong-newspaper-critical-of-china/
China's embassy in Sweden under fire over 'threats' to journalist
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/12/china-s-embassy-in-sweden-under-fire-over-threats-to-journalist
Mr. B, a 'gang'. Well, quite.
Meanwhile, more gang members have been flying jets in Taiwanese airspace.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56728072
Most people are able to do a useful job of work for which they are paid rather less than £100k.
Whereas Cameron believes he should receive millions but doesn't have the skillset to earn it.
Hence he was attracted to a bunch of shysters offering a fortune in return for vague services.
An organisation paying you for what amounted to some specialist training in select committee language and process, as someone who had once sat on the other side of the desk, is quite different to a company hiring a former minister - purely because they're still friends with current ministers and can put in a good private word about the company outside the proper processes.
Which is why your conscience is clear, and DC going to be in a load of trouble.
I suppose the Johnsonian Conservatives, as a defence could quite correctly claim, "not us squire", and that Cameron was part of the corrupt, cozy, post-Thatcherite, Euro-Labour-Liberal- feudal Tory concensus. That element of the Conservative Party, save for Mrs May was purged in 2019, in favour of the righteous, the good and Robert Jenrick.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gang_of_Four
I squeezed in by a matter of months too.
The only difference I suspect is that J&J was tested as a one shot and the others weren't.
Just a theory, but the numbers seem to line up that way. 🤷🏻♂️
Brown and May were both arguably closer to each other than Blair and Cameron ie more statist and personally more socially conservative.
Boris despite being very much in the New Labour/Cameroon mould in his personal life and philosophy cares more about being elected and has adjusted his government to be more statist and interventionist and to take a tougher line on immigration post Brexit to suit the current public mood
His ending of the unwritten agreement not to go after party leaders for corruption also means that'll be on the table, making any future leadership contest all the more bitter, as it'll be a matter of survival for some.
The Liberal Democrats may talk about it I suppose, but I doubt if anyone will be listening. Jon Ossoff v David Perdue they ain’t.
That’s the problem when you have widespread corruption scandals across all parties. Nobody dares to weaponise it in case it backfires on them.
We'd still have every adult first-dosed by around the 21st of June unlocking date. While it won't have had time to kick in for the last 5-7 million or so, it'll still have an impact on transmission even so.
If he'd been on the board of some megacorp like PWC then it would probably be seen as par for the course. If he'd been lobbying for some worthy little micro business near Whitney then it probably would have seemed harmless or naive.
I think the government may defer the order into a gen 2 single shot for groups 1-9.
The cost to taxpayers is going to be significant. That is not what was promised and its worth understanding why and making sure the same things are not happening now.
Revision up from -2.9 to -2.2% for January, and weak growth in February of 0.4%. Historic revisions made the original fall harder and recovery stronger which appears to be a timing effect over the course of last year.
Therefore the gap to the start of the pandemic has closed from a reported 9% at the end of January to 7.8% at the end of February.
There's a saying in Three Kingdoms:
The empire, long divided, must unite.
The empire, long united, must divide.
I'm not saying China's going to split apart, but ructions will be coming down the track.
In the medium to long term, I wonder whether Starmer will benefit? He may be dull/boring, but he strikes me as squeaky clean and incorruptible, and with integrity. I may be wrong, of course. After all, he did take the knee, so he's probably being financed by BLM............
Cameron saw the money, and didn't clock, or didn't care, that a mid size firm offering him £50m+ was likely to be a bit dodgy.
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/jjs-double-dose-covid-19-vaccine-draws-differing-expert-reviews/
He's 67 and Putin is 68, both could easily be in power another couple of decades.
I am usually quite critical of them for this, but in the middle of a pandemic, I'll let it slide. It's a difficult job.
Exposure to Gupta's GFG Alliance is ultimately responsible for Greensill Capital's ultimate insolvency.
Have you looked at the Welsh & Scottish politicians who Gupta purchased (e.g., a familiar friend, Carwyn Jones, is there on the global advisory board of the GFG Alliance)?
Because, when you go shopping, you might as well buy the full set of politicians from all parties. They're cheap enough.
And to go back to Welsh Labour, Carwyn deftly batted away criticisms of this a year ago, but he may not find it quite so easy now.
It's possible that we'll end up donating all of our J&J, and the US their AZN shots ? They are both effective vaccines, and pretty similar, so arguably there isn't much to be gained from introducing yet another vaccine to each country's supply chain (along with the safety monitoring issues).
It also depends how sharp potential replacements are, and whether biding their time or acting more swiftly is in their interests.
The lack of a proper handing over/succession mechanism in the Roman Empire caused significant trouble from early days, and played no small roles in civil wars becoming endemic.
Is all the data in now? Is it just a matter of time now, or more hurdles?
Terms of office had bee… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1381895242929033218
That of course makes it even harder for Labour to go on corruption, which may be why they’re raising hell about Plaid’s adverts instead.
So here is my answer:
I don't have a problem with the government looking at ideas provided they ask tough questions about the point and value of such schemes. They didn't last time and, unless, they're pressed, I fear that they won't this time. That's why I think this aspect of this affair is more important than what happened in the past and how daft Cameron was, even though it is the latter two which are getting the attention.
A half-way competent opposition would focus on what matters now as well as looking back. Honestly, I give them the bloody questions for free and they're still too lazy/stupid/
Indifferent to use them.
The succession problems will come after.
You *rent* them. If they used to be lawyers, by the hour.
Although, perhaps, I've spent too long dealing with tax avoidance schemes
And long-term its very bad news for both China and Russia.
"I'm afraid I can't do that, Dave."
The one comment I'd make is that if the response to this latest scandal focuses on the rules, "the system", that will be a misfire. It's about culture, or to be more precise, about standards of behaviour by individuals in public life. These standards - of honesty, of integrity - should be high. Higher than those demanded in other fields. And if people fall short, there should be an uproar and there should be genuine adverse personal consequences. This does not seem to happen. There's a poverty of low expectations.
As to the way forward, I'm afraid there isn't one right now. No matter how many inquiries there are, or what they end up saying, it's impossible for this particular government to get a grip on this particular problem - rock bottom standards in public life - because it is led by an individual whose (very powerful) political brand is built upon encouraging the perception that such matters are "dull" and even a teeny bit "party pooping". So long as the public keep buying into the brand, keep rewarding its owner with their votes, there is no chance whatsoever of any progress on this. It will have to wait until there's a change at the top. Not any old change either. A big change.