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Vaccine passports – the first major political divide in the fight against COVID? – politicalbetting.

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,265

    Yesterday


    Who could have foreseen that trend?

    More seriously, hopefully their percentages are the most vulnerable, and the third waves won't be as deadly as they could be as a result.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,265

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1377516813572055043

    I'm Keiran's campaign manager and I think we can come second in the first round and win the race with the transfers in round 2.

    You should see our private polling.

    It's the choice London needs.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,385

    Oh, I misread it. Yes the USA is different, I thought the conversation was about the UK.
    Yep I knew, as unlike certain topics I knew this was one of the ones we would be agreeing on :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,265
    MaxPB said:

    Over 400k second jabs. 💉💪
    If we can maintain 500-600k a day, even if most are second jabs, through April, that is still a good bit of progress.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    edited April 2021
    MattW said:

    I don't believe the "if I am not suffering from XYZ myself, I can't talk about it" line. To me that is just an acceptance for single issue lobby groups to run riot with whatever they want to make up. Campaigners need to be kept honest.

    One blatant example that sticks out is the people lobbying from 2017 that the HoC only has 1% of disabled people as MPs to represent the 20% or so of people who can theoretically be identified as disabled. And therefore do what we say ... disability quotas ... yadda yadda yadda.

    When examined, the 1% list seemed to consist of people in wheelchairs, and even excluded Theresa May herself.

    Yet they made it as far as contributing a video report to the Daily Politics without being called on it.
    Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.

    The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,825

    Where have you found data stratified by UHC? It's virtually impossible to find in the UK bar the actual deaths numbers (which are stratified by that).

    The total number of under-60s without UHC who have died from Covid in the UK stood at 377 as of December. There might be more recent data, but it will be in a similar range.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiY8LHWl93vAhXYgP0HHdEFAT4QFjAAegQIAxAD&url=https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/01/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-17-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx&usg=AOvVaw0sxxgOQzaFRTw1i2K7GL2R
    Something that stood out in the report above. Deaths after admission to critical care -

    16-49 18.8%
    50-69 40.0%
    70+ 55.8%
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    edited April 2021
    kjh said:

    Don't be daft. You understand what routinely means.

    A turn of phrase has a meaning that we all understand and don't take literally. A cock and bull story does not need either a cock nor a bull in it.
    You need to quantify. You cant go from 'everyday' to 'well sometimes occasionally, cant quite think when last, but i did get followed once when i went clothes shopping'.

    Just gibberish nonsense, it is perpetuated by well meaning people who dont want to let the side down, or (as in the american example just given) perceive or imagine that others are out to get them.

    My first wife of fifteen years was west african, living in a northern almost entirely white town. Maybe twice or three times in that entire time was there any interaction that would fit the criteria of racism. Largely kids shouting something.

    What wasnt that unusual would be a small child maybe asking loudly "Mummie why is that lady is brown", and the mother been deeply embarrassed. But only an arse takes interactions from young children offensively or people been interested in your braids as offensive.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    For saying that the UK is not the USA?

    Our police don't routinely pull over and shoot anyone let alone black people.

    The odds of a random black person and a random white person being randomly pulled over and shot by UK police are both effectively the same. As close to zero as possible.

    Which is a good thing, if only the USA was the same.
    You might want to actually read his first post, my post responding to that, and his response to mine before aligning yourself with CursingStone.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kjh said:

    You are misreading his post Philip. He is responding to a post about America and says:

    "His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person"

    Note he says 'american'.

    That is patently not true.

    You of course are absolutely right for the UK. As the police in the UK do not pull over people, black or white and shot them you couldn't even calculate any stats as your sample size would be damn near zero (if not zero) for both.

    You're right. 🤦‍♂️

    The odds are zero in the UK, but definitely non-zero and statistically different in America.
  • kinabalu said:

    Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.

    The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
    That also opens you up for a shakedown though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    kinabalu said:

    Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.

    The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
    Does knowledge for example include reading every available study and police report on racism incidence?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TimT said:

    You might want to actually read his first post, my post responding to that, and his response to mine before aligning yourself with CursingStone.
    I'm not. I misread it. What he is saying is so illogical I simply couldn't believe he was talking about American cops (!)

    Unbelievable stupidity so I gave him the benefit of the doubt he didn't mean that, even though he did.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,071
    edited April 2021
    kle4 said:

    If we can maintain 500-600k a day, even if most are second jabs, through April, that is still a good bit of progress.
    That'd be frankly amazing. 500k/day would be more than the March total of
    14,569,635 March jabs

    10,043,369 is the required number of second jabs in April.

    So actually we know there will be probably less than 4,526,266 April 1st jabs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    You're right. 🤦‍♂️

    The odds are zero in the UK, but definitely non-zero and statistically different in America.
    What are the actual stats there out of interest. Population-weighted.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,171
    edited April 2021

    The current Tory PM is a crook
    Exploring possible counter election posters.

    The only actual possibly crookery that could be pinned on the PM is 3 decades (?) old.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Where have you found data stratified by UHC? It's virtually impossible to find in the UK bar the actual deaths numbers (which are stratified by that).

    The total number of under-60s without UHC who have died from Covid in the UK stood at 377 as of December. There might be more recent data, but it will be in a similar range.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiY8LHWl93vAhXYgP0HHdEFAT4QFjAAegQIAxAD&url=https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/01/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-17-December-2020-weekly-file.xlsx&usg=AOvVaw0sxxgOQzaFRTw1i2K7GL2R
    The "without underlying conditions" can be found from the qcovid risk tool - it assumes a one-in-fifty chance of contracting covid in the time period it uses as a reference, so put in whatever values you like, and then multiply the resulting score by fifty to get the outcomes if catching covid.

    A useful graph in the ICNARC report is this one:


    It's a log scale, which makes things look closer than they are, but it does provide a useful way of tracking the expected effects of vaccinations.
    Those 49 and under and without any conditions that would put them into Groups 2 or 6 of the vaccination programme usually ran about two doublings short of the largest group, which is Groups 5-9, and two-and-a-half doublings short of being larger than the entire occupancy on its own (obviously, with vaccinations taking effect, they're now less than one doubling short of Groups 5-9 and one-and-a-half doublings or so short of being as large as the entire ICU admissions on their own, if you see what I mean)

    This area is the least affected by vaccinations to date, which is why I skip past the deaths and cases data to home in on the mechanical ventilation numbers (as a decent proxy for ICU occupation) - as long as that's still going down, the Government shouldn't worry; this is the area least affected by the vaccinations to date (albeit you can see the effects coming in by comparing the slopes of the Groups 1-4 and Groups 5-9 with the Phase 2 slope).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,825
    kle4 said:

    If we can maintain 500-600k a day, even if most are second jabs, through April, that is still a good bit of progress.
    That is what will have to happen just to keep to the 12 week second dose plan.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,385

    You need to quantify. You cant go from 'everyday' to 'well sometimes occasionally, cant quite think when last, but i did get followed once when i went clothes shopping'.

    Just gibberish nonsense, it is perpetuated by well meaning people who dont want to let the side down, or (as in the american example just given) perceive or imagine that others are out to get them.

    My first wife of fifteen years was west african, living in a northern almost entirely white town. Maybe twice or three times in that entire time was there any interaction that would fit the criteria of racism. Largely kids shouting something.

    What wasnt that unusual would be a small child maybe asking loudly "Mummie why is that lady is brown", and the mother been deeply embarrassed. But only an arse takes interactions from young children offensively or people been interested in your braids as offensive.
    No I don't need to quantify it as I didn't bring up the phrase in the first place. However you did misrepresent its meaning and I corrected you by quoting the actual meaning which is different.

    You then quoted a USA stat incorrectly which I also corrected.

    If you are going to state things here that are not correct then people are going to correct you. That is life.
  • One of the minorly disturbing facets of the horrorshow of evidence being given at the Chauvin trial is that Floyd when stopped by Chauvin et al in his car was him begging them not to shoot him. Of course it went downhill from there...
    The video of that was deeply disturbing and frankly upsetting
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    algarkirk said:

    Scotland has its very own doesn't it: Jurassic

    No. That is a Period. Let's be precise, this is PB.

    (And Jurassic is also fouind in the rest of Europe, for a start.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Pulpstar said:

    That'd be frankly amazing. 500k/day would be more than the March total of
    14,569,635 March jabs

    10,043,369 is the required number of second jabs in April.

    So actually we know there will be probably less than 4,526,266 April 1st jabs.
    I think we're going to have 2-3m first doses in April and then a big ramp up in May. Anyone who is over 35 should get their invite in mid-May and anyone over 30 towards the end of May. Around 1m Moderna and 1m Novavax doses are set to be delivered per week in May plus whatever we get from Pfizer and AZ for first dose usage. May is going to be a gigantic month.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Or they're just experiencing life from their own perspective. I don't think we realise how much our beliefs affect our life experience. If I felt that society was looking down on me for the colour of my skin, I can imagine that snooty waiters, rude people at ticket kiosks, unhelpful taxi drivers, posh snobs being posh snobs, people flying Union Jack flags, would all be viewed from a completely different perspective - though the actual circumstances of those encounters could be identical from person to person.

    That said, I don't massively disagree with @kinabalu that we can still make things better. I think where I really differ is in the language used. We speak of 'reducing inequality' and 'reducing white privilege', but I think both those terms are wrong - because they focus attention on perceived problems, and they call for the 'winners' to be 'brought down a peg or two', because of the spurious idea that this will make the 'losers' happier. I don't want to 'reduce inequality' (I don't mind if it's reduced, but it's not my aim), I want to spread prosperity. By the same token, I suppose to don't want to end 'white privilege', I want to extend privilege. We can all get behind extending privilege. We can joyfully measure how much we're all extending it by.
    Well I'm happy with a namecheck for wanting things to be better. Makes a change. :smile:

    And, ok, fine. White Privilege is to be able to live your life without having to think about your skin colour. So the goal is indeed to spread this to all.

    What is the fabled Post Racial Society? For me, a society where there is no assumption whatsoever, by anyone in any circumstances, of a link between a person's character or worth and their ethnicity.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    MaxPB said:

    I think we're going to have 2-3m first doses in April and then a big ramp up in May. Anyone who is over 35 should get their invite in mid-May and anyone over 30 towards the end of May. Around 1m Moderna and 1m Novavax doses are set to be delivered per week in May plus whatever we get from Pfizer and AZ for first dose usage. May is going to be a gigantic month.
    Agreed. I think that May is when we move away from being supply constrained at all. I would be unshocked (pleasantly surprised to an extent) if we got all over-18s jabbed with a first dose in May.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited April 2021

    In addition, when large proportions of some sections of American society believe that more than 1000 unarmed black men are killed by police every year (actual figure: less than 100) and that a majority of the people killed by police are black (actual figure: 24.9%), it's fair to say that a lot of people are living in fear unnecessarily. What is being performed on a large section of the population in the West amounts to reverse Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, training people into unhealthy thinking patterns.
    Yes, the fear may be worse than is justified by the figures, but I would like to point out that only 12.6% of the US population are Black (2010 census) so if you're African-American you're almost twice as likely to be killed by the police than Americans overall.

    And anecdotally, the only time either me or my wife have been stopped by the police while driving around our small, fairly wealthy and mostly white NYC suburb was when my wife was giving some Black co-workers a lift to the railway station.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    kle4 said:

    Who could have foreseen that trend?

    More seriously, hopefully their percentages are the most vulnerable, and the third waves won't be as deadly as they could be as a result.
    To be honest a lot of them have been all over the shop - some doing 20 year old health care workers before 85 year old care home residents - then they've had the AZ Hokey-Kokey - so fingers crossed, but I fear things will get worse before they get better....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,385
    felix said:

    Convicted of? Just beating Labour into the ground doesn't count!
    Being found guilty of a crime isn't a requirement of being a crook, but I did enjoy what you did find him guilty of, although to be fair Boris could put up the valid defence of 'he was asking for it guv'.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    TOPPING said:

    Does knowledge for example include reading every available study and police report on racism incidence?
    Gosh yes. Are you quite clued up then?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,071
    MaxPB said:

    I think we're going to have 2-3m first doses in April and then a big ramp up in May. Anyone who is over 35 should get their invite in mid-May and anyone over 30 towards the end of May. Around 1m Moderna and 1m Novavax doses are set to be delivered per week in May plus whatever we get from Pfizer and AZ for first dose usage. May is going to be a gigantic month.
    Ye - finger in the air I'd say 2 million first doses, 12 million second in April. My 10,043,369 is running strictly to 84 days - which we know won't happen and 2nd dose take up is 99% so not much lost on the other side there either.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Carnyx said:

    No. That is a Period. Let's be precise, this is PB.

    (And Jurassic is also fouind in the rest of Europe, for a start.)
    It's named for the Jura mountains on the Franco-Swiss border.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    That also opens you up for a shakedown though.
    Yes. That must be guarded against. The trick is to be skeptical but not cynical.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,496
    Maffew said:

    A couple of UK examples, not as serious as being shot, but nevertheless they stuck in my mind.

    I was chatting with a black colleague about the BLM protests and she (highly educated, middle class lawyer) said she'd just settle for being able to go in a clothes shop without the security guard following her around.

    Closer to home, my wife (East Asian ethnically) took on my surname for professional purposes despite not being keen on changing it for cultural reasons* because she thought it would help her career more than having a stereotypically Chinese name. She has said since that she found clients and colleagues who hadn't met her before interacted with her differently when they first encountered her as "Jane Smith" rather than "Jane Wang".

    Neither of these are things that I would notice as a white guy or things that are easy to measure. I don't think it makes them untrue or unimportant.

    *Very much her decision, I was completely unfussed about whether she took my name or not.
    These are known in the trade as "micro-aggressions".

    An example from The Thick of It:

    https://thethickofit.gifglobe.com/scene/?id=89xkkQdU1eds
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,034
    rkrkrk said:

    I think this could play. Tories have cut police numbers and have got a number of corruption scandals on the go.
    Plus he was Mr DPP. Law and order.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    rpjs said:

    Yes, the fear may be worse than is justified by the figures, but I would like to point out that only 12.6% of the US population are Black (2010 census) so if you're African-American you're almost twice as likely to be killed by the police than Americans overall.

    And anecdotally, the only time either me or my wife have been stopped by the police while driving around our small, fairly wealthy and mostly white NYC suburb was when my wife was giving some Black co-workers a lift to the railway station.
    That is part of my point. Fear does not need to be rational to be real. Nor can you deny the reality of racism simply by pointing to a couple of favorable statistics.

    Quite apart from the question, how many of the whites killed by police were killed in part because they were white vs the same for the young male black population, given the perception that black men get killed by the police in large part because they are black men (e.g. for doing things which would not get a white person killed in the same situation), no matter how infrequently that is, it is entirely reasonable for young black men to adopt an attitude of fear towards how police will interact with them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,171

    Yesterday


    Better than that.

    The target is 53m adults not 66.7m of entire population.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,171
    Interesting one.

    "246 adverse AZ events in UK"

    (this is the kitchen sink version, I expect.)

    https://www.livemint.com/news/world/eu-review-of-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-risks-finds-246-adverse-events-in-uk-11617208435407.html
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MattW said:

    Better than that.

    The target is 53m adults not 66.7m of entire population.
    I must be missing Mr Keating's breathless tweets on this. Can someone direct me to them?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    Mr. kinabalu, white privilege is a dumb term.

    It certainly wasn't experienced by girls and boys in Rotherham.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,383
    Afternoon all :)

    I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.

    I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.

    Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,395
    Dura_Ace said:

    Yes. The British army will get its first examples in 2023; a mere 27 years after joining the program. World beating.
    That lego kit must take ages to put together.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,071
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.

    I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.

    Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?

    Some of us are still waiting for our first dose.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited April 2021
    MattW said:

    Interesting one.

    "246 adverse AZ events in UK"

    (this is the kitchen sink version, I expect.)

    https://www.livemint.com/news/world/eu-review-of-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-risks-finds-246-adverse-events-in-uk-11617208435407.html

    i.e. 99.99754% of those vaccinated do not have adverse reactions
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,309
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.

    I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.

    Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?

    I don't think anyone is talking about changing the 12 week rule. It works, so why would they?
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    rpjs said:

    Yes, the fear may be worse than is justified by the figures, but I would like to point out that only 12.6% of the US population are Black (2010 census) so if you're African-American you're almost twice as likely to be killed by the police than Americans overall.
    However, academic studies have shown that you break that down by crime rates, particularly focusing on people who are killed while unarmed and non-aggressive, the racial disparity disappears. A black doctor worrying every day that he will be pulled over by the police and shot is akin to an eighteen year old wearing a mask while alone in their car for fear of dying of COVID: it points to both a mis-understanding of statistical probability and a fundamentally unhealthily anxious mindset, and encouraging either would be little more than irresponsible.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,171
    edited April 2021
    TimT said:

    I must be missing Mr Keating's breathless tweets on this. Can someone direct me to them?
    If you like he's done a whole 45 minute interview about the "Vaccine Wars".
    https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/8238649

    He seems to have gone off graphs a bit :smiley: The Tweet that stood out to me was his comparing Ireland /UK to the Oliver Twist asking for some more scene when the "UK will donate vaccines to Ireland" story came out. The guy is out of his tree.

    This was a recent - comparing UK to Russia.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,740

    Right up until the moment Starmer leads Labour in voting against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill 2021, that is.

    At which point it just looks thick.
    I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:

    1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.

    2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.

    Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Come to that, I didn't know who Ms Keegan was... This is getting silly.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,171
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.

    I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.

    Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?

    I think we do what we have always - into arms pdq if we have the stocks, within the treatment guidelines.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,171
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:

    I think we're going to have 2-3m first doses in April and then a big ramp up in May. Anyone who is over 35 should get their invite in mid-May and anyone over 30 towards the end of May. Around 1m Moderna and 1m Novavax doses are set to be delivered per week in May plus whatever we get from Pfizer and AZ for first dose usage. May is going to be a gigantic month.
    We still want million :-) .

    One unforeseen hiccup in the EU rollout will be capacity.

    eg If they are going to get anywhere near using up the vaccine that the EU is saying is coming in Q2 - if it all arrives on time - then Germany is going to have to increase it's current 7 day average rollout rate by a factor of FOUR to a million a day. Which is a hell of an ask, as it will take a lot of time to build up to the average then they have to exceed it to backfill the buildup.

    EU will get bitten in the arse by misleading everyone how quick it will be, or if you are me they are teeing up another set of scapegoats in the individual countries for when everyone notices that 150k-200k EU Citizens are unnecessarily dead.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Leon said:

    It's actually BIG

    646,000 jabs in total, very near 1% of the pop. Great effort in Scotland


    https://twitter.com/leavedavidalone/status/1377611979284680707?s=20

    These are fantastic figures
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,383
    Looking at the vaccination numbers out today (all figures to 28/3), an update on the numbers for Newham.

    98.982 first vaccinations have been administered - the total population is estimated at 350,000. Of those 46.245 have been given to those under 50 so nearly half.

    Of those over 50 (87,856), 58,356 have had a first vaccination which is close to two thirds (66.4%) which is very good.

    Among the elderly (70+), 14,047 out of 17,850 have received a first vaccination. That's 78.7% which hasn't changed much from last week suggesting the remainder are the "refuseniks" which is 3,803 people in the Borough all of whom, we must assume, are still vulnerable to coronavirus.

    By comparison, in Surrey Heath, of the 13,933 population aged over 70, 13,728 have been vaccinated which is 98.5% and leave just 205 vulnerable people.

    The England-wide above 70 numbers are striking, of the 7,836,871 over 70, 7,367,202 have had one vaccination and 1,136,544 have had both doses so that's 6 million of our second doses straight away.

    94% of those over 70 have received one vaccination. Just 14.5% have had both so the need now is to get to the remaining 6 million over 70s in England and then start back down the population.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:

    1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.

    2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.

    Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
    Also, the seeming focus on “woke” issues and minor Covid rule-breaking instead of, you know, actual crime.

    Would indeed be strange to hear that from Labour, but potentially transformative in terms of how people perceive them.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,383
    RobD said:

    I don't think anyone is talking about changing the 12 week rule. It works, so why would they?
    It was something I inferred from some comments down the thread - the numbers show the gap in second vaccinations against first and the scale of what remains to be done. All of this makes the roadmap look entirely plausible and credible with a view to getting as many people as possible fully protected with two vaccinations by mid June.

    There seemed an idea we had large stocks of "spare" vaccine so the programme of second doses could be advanced.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,960

    I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:

    1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.

    2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.

    Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
    I don't think Labour are in any position to focus on anything, just at the moment. It is a deeply divided party (along Corbyn lines) and they must have been demoralised by the recent shenanigans in Liverpool. I don't know - I am not a Labour insider.

    The Labour Party needs to make up its collective mind about what it is for - as indeed does the Conservative Party.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,740
    I think the debate about people being killed by the police is a bit of a red herring, especially in the UK, as mercifully that's vanishingly rare.

    But it's a stretch to suggest that some black people don't face everyday racism. In a previous life, not long ago, I did a lot of interviewing of young people in urban environments. The most striking difference between those who were white and those who were black was their everyday experience of the police. While white youth rarely mentioned the police and had little interaction with them, for most black youth the police were a high profile, pervasive presence in their lives. Whether through formal stop and search, or just through casual interactions, many of the black youth were convinced that as far as the police were concerned they were under permanent suspicion of committing, or being equipped to commit, offences.

    I don't intend to comment on yesterday's race report until I've read it properly (I know, poor form). But I have read the 24 recommendations. They're about as anodyne, kicking into the long grass, pointless recommendations as I've ever seen.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MattW said:

    If you like he's done a whole 45 minute interview about the "Vaccine Wars".
    https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/8238649

    He seems to have gone off graphs a bit :smiley: The Tweet that stood out to me was his comparing Ireland /UK to the Oliver Twist asking for some more scene when the "UK will donate vaccines to Ireland" story came out. The guy is out of his tree.

    This was a recent - comparing UK to Russia.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
    Ugh! I think that will be the one and only time I look at his twitter feed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,496
    stodge said:

    It was something I inferred from some comments down the thread - the numbers show the gap in second vaccinations against first and the scale of what remains to be done. All of this makes the roadmap look entirely plausible and credible with a view to getting as many people as possible fully protected with two vaccinations by mid June.

    There seemed an idea we had large stocks of "spare" vaccine so the programme of second doses could be advanced.
    I heard from someone the other day that second doses for those who recently received their first dose are being booked earlier than 12 weeks, presumably because the authorities are planning on having many more doses available come June.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:

    1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.

    2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.

    Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
    The idea that Starmer storms back on law and order is ludicrous - they already lost the plot the other week when failing to bring down Cressida Dick. The clutching at straws for Starmer on here is painful.
  • kinabalu said:

    Yes. That must be guarded against. The trick is to be skeptical but not cynical.
    I agree, its a fine line between.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I think the debate about people being killed by the police is a bit of a red herring, especially in the UK, as mercifully that's vanishingly rare.

    But it's a stretch to suggest that some black people don't face everyday racism. In a previous life, not long ago, I did a lot of interviewing of young people in urban environments. The most striking difference between those who were white and those who were black was their everyday experience of the police. While white youth rarely mentioned the police and had little interaction with them, for most black youth the police were a high profile, pervasive presence in their lives. Whether through formal stop and search, or just through casual interactions, many of the black youth were convinced that as far as the police were concerned they were under permanent suspicion of committing, or being equipped to commit, offences.

    I don't intend to comment on yesterday's race report until I've read it properly (I know, poor form). But I have read the 24 recommendations. They're about as anodyne, kicking into the long grass, pointless recommendations as I've ever seen.

    I'd agree with that. I used the example 1. because I am in the US and it is one that is very personally relevant to our family and friends and 2. because the original statement to which I was responding - that no-one experiences racism in their daily lives - was so outrageous. But I also said that this was the US, not the UK, quite clearly.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MattW said:

    I think we do what we have always - into arms pdq if we have the stocks, within the treatment guidelines.
    Sadly - the whingers are gonna whinge - despite the fact that those of us living in much of Europe under 70 still face 4-6 weeks or more of waiting.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ClippP said:

    I don't think Labour are in any position to focus on anything, just at the moment. It is a deeply divided party (along Corbyn lines) and they must have been demoralised by the recent shenanigans in Liverpool. I don't know - I am not a Labour insider.

    The Labour Party needs to make up its collective mind about what it is for - as indeed does the Conservative Party.
    Labour lacks a collectiver mind - the result of its focus on identity politics. The Conservatives do need to make up their minds - why mess with a winning formula which goes back even to the dark days when the Liberals used to be a thing.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    stodge said:

    It was something I inferred from some comments down the thread - the numbers show the gap in second vaccinations against first and the scale of what remains to be done. All of this makes the roadmap look entirely plausible and credible with a view to getting as many people as possible fully protected with two vaccinations by mid June.

    There seemed an idea we had large stocks of "spare" vaccine so the programme of second doses could be advanced.
    If there are spare vaccines the focus should be to give good immunisation with more first doses. That way you save more lives.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,825
    felix said:

    Sadly - the whingers are gonna whinge - despite the fact that those of us living in much of Europe under 70 still face 4-6 weeks or more of waiting.
    As I understand it, the 12 weeks has been treated as a maximum, not as an injunction to give a second dose 83 days, 23 hours, 59 minutes etc etc
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I'm not sure the number of twitter followers is an indication of anything good.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,496
    NEW THREAD
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,740
    felix said:

    The idea that Starmer storms back on law and order is ludicrous - they already lost the plot the other week when failing to bring down Cressida Dick. The clutching at straws for Starmer on here is painful.
    Weird. Ignore completely what I wrote. Stick in a complete non-sequitur about Cressida Dick (did Priti Patel sack her? - thought not - HMI exonerated her, I thought?). Ah well, that's how Tories argue these days.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235

    I think the debate about people being killed by the police is a bit of a red herring, especially in the UK, as mercifully that's vanishingly rare.

    But it's a stretch to suggest that some black people don't face everyday racism. In a previous life, not long ago, I did a lot of interviewing of young people in urban environments. The most striking difference between those who were white and those who were black was their everyday experience of the police. While white youth rarely mentioned the police and had little interaction with them, for most black youth the police were a high profile, pervasive presence in their lives. Whether through formal stop and search, or just through casual interactions, many of the black youth were convinced that as far as the police were concerned they were under permanent suspicion of committing, or being equipped to commit, offences.

    I don't intend to comment on yesterday's race report until I've read it properly (I know, poor form). But I have read the 24 recommendations. They're about as anodyne, kicking into the long grass, pointless recommendations as I've ever seen.

    In line with that, one of my first cousins is mixed race (half black half white) and funnily enough he's the only member of my extended family to have had multiple negative encounters with the police. To be clear, he has never been charged with anything and I'm pretty certain he's not involved in anything that would justify it (doing well in life, lovely guy, middle class background etc.). Being stopped and searched/questioned is a part of his life in a way that it isn't for any of my other (white) relatives.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited April 2021

    I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:

    1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.

    2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.

    Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.

    @Northern_Al


    Why do the major parties always promise to increase spending on the NHS - and generally follow through with it - but treat social care as a Cinderella, even though pumping money into it might be more efficient at producing better overall outcomes? Because people know what the NHS is; they don't really know or understand what social care is or does.

    Similarly, improving detection rates and cutting delays would no doubt produce better outcomes (although if it were a cheap or easy process it would have happened already), but the detail of how you achieve that is not something the public really understands or cares to investigate. So instead of acquiring that knowledge, people use a set of heuristics: which side are you on, mine or theirs? Are you tough on criminals, or soft and sympathetic?

    Labour fails to understand that in order to win a hearing for their more nuanced policy proposals they first need to pass that simple heuristic test in the court of public opinion. But with individual Labour MPs like Nadia Whittome and Zarah Sultana actively cheering on the Bristol mobs, and Starmer leading the entire party against the Bill, they're going to fail that test miserably.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,171
    felix said:

    If there are spare vaccines the focus should be to give good immunisation with more first doses. That way you save more lives.
    As long as the 2nd doses remain within 10-11 weeks as per the treatment guidelines.

    Because we are very nearly into the groups where the risk of death is very low, and that needs to be balanced with the further risk to the vulnerable or old people who are still due their second dose.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Mr. kinabalu, white privilege is a dumb term.

    It certainly wasn't experienced by girls and boys in Rotherham.

    And that is a dumb comment. Sorry, Morris, but it truly is.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,994

    Really?

    What statistically were the odds of an innocent black driver being pulled over and shot by the Police in the UK last year compared to white drivers?
    were any drivers pulled over and shot by police in UK last year
This discussion has been closed.