Is that the first day with more than a third of a million second doses? That's over 0.5% of the UK second-dose vaccinated in England alone in one day isn't it?
The second-dose graph must be looking interesting now for comparisons.
Yesterday
Who could have foreseen that trend?
More seriously, hopefully their percentages are the most vulnerable, and the third waves won't be as deadly as they could be as a result.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
An example. My wife works in surgery centers in multiple locations giving vacation coverage. One doctor she covers for is 6'4" ex-military, 50s. The town is in deepest darkest Maryland (Cumberland, in the panhandle, near WVa). Surgery starts at 07:00 so that means driving to work mostly in the dark for a lot of the year.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
Clearly not relevant here. His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person. It sounds like he is living in a state of fear more akin to a mental illness that isnt warranted. And once again, this is not the UK
That is just a weird statement to make as they are statistically different, significantly different.
Really?
What statistically were the odds of an innocent black driver being pulled over and shot by the Police in the UK last year compared to white drivers?
He was referring to the USA not the UK.
Oh, I misread it. Yes the USA is different, I thought the conversation was about the UK.
Yep I knew, as unlike certain topics I knew this was one of the ones we would be agreeing on
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.
It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
I don't believe the "if I am not suffering from XYZ myself, I can't talk about it" line. To me that is just an acceptance for single issue lobby groups to run riot with whatever they want to make up. Campaigners need to be kept honest.
One blatant example that sticks out is the people lobbying from 2017 that the HoC only has 1% of disabled people as MPs to represent the 20% or so of people who can theoretically be identified as disabled. And therefore do what we say ... disability quotas ... yadda yadda yadda.
When examined, the 1% list seemed to consist of people in wheelchairs, and even excluded Theresa May herself.
Yet they made it as far as contributing a video report to the Daily Politics without being called on it.
Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.
The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
Have the doctors tried simply telling them that they are all-but-unaffected by covid?
Under 44-year-olds comprise about 14% of all hospitalisations in the UK. Realise that this is ICU but I think we'd need to see national data before drawing any conclusions from a tiny sample.
Hospitalisation skews noticeably younger than deaths; ICU skews noticeably younger than hospitalisations. And when you have so many people going through, a quarter of a large number ends up with a lot of people affected (rather than all-but-unaffected). A 45-year-old man, with no underlying conditions and a healthy BMI has a chance of dying of covid of a mere 0.15%. But his chance of being hospitalised is 2.0%. When hospitalised with covid, after successful discharge (hopefully), he will have eight times the likelihood of dying in the next six months that those who avoided covid hospitalisations did. And he is highly likely to be unable to say "no underlying health conditions" any more.
The meme that "the young are all-but-unaffected by covid" that spread so widely has glossed over an awful lot, not just Long Covid. It conflates "chance of dying" with "being affected at all", which is not exactly true.
I'm all for people making informed choices, but I do think that the information should be accurate.
Where have you found data stratified by UHC? It's virtually impossible to find in the UK bar the actual deaths numbers (which are stratified by that).
The total number of under-60s without UHC who have died from Covid in the UK stood at 377 as of December. There might be more recent data, but it will be in a similar range.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
'Daily life' does not mean every day. It means in their normal existence; routinely. I think it is perfectly reasonable to assume people experience racism routinely.
So if not daily, give me a sense of what you mean by routine. Weekly? Fortnightly? Monthly? Yearly?
Don't be daft. You understand what routinely means.
A turn of phrase has a meaning that we all understand and don't take literally. A cock and bull story does not need either a cock nor a bull in it.
You need to quantify. You cant go from 'everyday' to 'well sometimes occasionally, cant quite think when last, but i did get followed once when i went clothes shopping'.
Just gibberish nonsense, it is perpetuated by well meaning people who dont want to let the side down, or (as in the american example just given) perceive or imagine that others are out to get them.
My first wife of fifteen years was west african, living in a northern almost entirely white town. Maybe twice or three times in that entire time was there any interaction that would fit the criteria of racism. Largely kids shouting something.
What wasnt that unusual would be a small child maybe asking loudly "Mummie why is that lady is brown", and the mother been deeply embarrassed. But only an arse takes interactions from young children offensively or people been interested in your braids as offensive.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
An example. My wife works in surgery centers in multiple locations giving vacation coverage. One doctor she covers for is 6'4" ex-military, 50s. The town is in deepest darkest Maryland (Cumberland, in the panhandle, near WVa). Surgery starts at 07:00 so that means driving to work mostly in the dark for a lot of the year.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
Clearly not relevant here. His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person. It sounds like he is living in a state of fear more akin to a mental illness that isnt warranted. And once again, this is not the UK
That is just a weird statement to make as they are statistically different, significantly different.
CursingStone is either a troll or a very privileged white person who does not get out of his/her gated community. Disengaging.
For saying that the UK is not the USA?
Our police don't routinely pull over and shoot anyone let alone black people.
The odds of a random black person and a random white person being randomly pulled over and shot by UK police are both effectively the same. As close to zero as possible.
Which is a good thing, if only the USA was the same.
You might want to actually read his first post, my post responding to that, and his response to mine before aligning yourself with CursingStone.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
An example. My wife works in surgery centers in multiple locations giving vacation coverage. One doctor she covers for is 6'4" ex-military, 50s. The town is in deepest darkest Maryland (Cumberland, in the panhandle, near WVa). Surgery starts at 07:00 so that means driving to work mostly in the dark for a lot of the year.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
Clearly not relevant here. His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person. It sounds like he is living in a state of fear more akin to a mental illness that isnt warranted. And once again, this is not the UK
That is just a weird statement to make as they are statistically different, significantly different.
CursingStone is either a troll or a very privileged white person who does not get out of his/her gated community. Disengaging.
For saying that the UK is not the USA?
Our police don't routinely pull over and shoot anyone let alone black people.
The odds of a random black person and a random white person being randomly pulled over and shot by UK police are both effectively the same. As close to zero as possible.
Which is a good thing, if only the USA was the same.
You are misreading his post Philip. He is responding to a post about America and says:
"His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person"
Note he says 'american'.
That is patently not true.
You of course are absolutely right for the UK. As the police in the UK do not pull over people, black or white and shot them you couldn't even calculate any stats as your sample size would be damn near zero (if not zero) for both.
You're right. 🤦♂️
The odds are zero in the UK, but definitely non-zero and statistically different in America.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.
It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
I don't believe the "if I am not suffering from XYZ myself, I can't talk about it" line. To me that is just an acceptance for single issue lobby groups to run riot with whatever they want to make up. Campaigners need to be kept honest.
One blatant example that sticks out is the people lobbying from 2017 that the HoC only has 1% of disabled people as MPs to represent the 20% or so of people who can theoretically be identified as disabled. And therefore do what we say ... disability quotas ... yadda yadda yadda.
When examined, the 1% list seemed to consist of people in wheelchairs, and even excluded Theresa May herself.
Yet they made it as far as contributing a video report to the Daily Politics without being called on it.
Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.
The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.
It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
I don't believe the "if I am not suffering from XYZ myself, I can't talk about it" line. To me that is just an acceptance for single issue lobby groups to run riot with whatever they want to make up. Campaigners need to be kept honest.
One blatant example that sticks out is the people lobbying from 2017 that the HoC only has 1% of disabled people as MPs to represent the 20% or so of people who can theoretically be identified as disabled. And therefore do what we say ... disability quotas ... yadda yadda yadda.
When examined, the 1% list seemed to consist of people in wheelchairs, and even excluded Theresa May herself.
Yet they made it as far as contributing a video report to the Daily Politics without being called on it.
Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.
The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
Does knowledge for example include reading every available study and police report on racism incidence?
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
An example. My wife works in surgery centers in multiple locations giving vacation coverage. One doctor she covers for is 6'4" ex-military, 50s. The town is in deepest darkest Maryland (Cumberland, in the panhandle, near WVa). Surgery starts at 07:00 so that means driving to work mostly in the dark for a lot of the year.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
Clearly not relevant here. His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person. It sounds like he is living in a state of fear more akin to a mental illness that isnt warranted. And once again, this is not the UK
That is just a weird statement to make as they are statistically different, significantly different.
CursingStone is either a troll or a very privileged white person who does not get out of his/her gated community. Disengaging.
For saying that the UK is not the USA?
Our police don't routinely pull over and shoot anyone let alone black people.
The odds of a random black person and a random white person being randomly pulled over and shot by UK police are both effectively the same. As close to zero as possible.
Which is a good thing, if only the USA was the same.
You might want to actually read his first post, my post responding to that, and his response to mine before aligning yourself with CursingStone.
I'm not. I misread it. What he is saying is so illogical I simply couldn't believe he was talking about American cops (!)
Unbelievable stupidity so I gave him the benefit of the doubt he didn't mean that, even though he did.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
An example. My wife works in surgery centers in multiple locations giving vacation coverage. One doctor she covers for is 6'4" ex-military, 50s. The town is in deepest darkest Maryland (Cumberland, in the panhandle, near WVa). Surgery starts at 07:00 so that means driving to work mostly in the dark for a lot of the year.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
Clearly not relevant here. His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person. It sounds like he is living in a state of fear more akin to a mental illness that isnt warranted. And once again, this is not the UK
That is just a weird statement to make as they are statistically different, significantly different.
CursingStone is either a troll or a very privileged white person who does not get out of his/her gated community. Disengaging.
For saying that the UK is not the USA?
Our police don't routinely pull over and shoot anyone let alone black people.
The odds of a random black person and a random white person being randomly pulled over and shot by UK police are both effectively the same. As close to zero as possible.
Which is a good thing, if only the USA was the same.
You are misreading his post Philip. He is responding to a post about America and says:
"His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person"
Note he says 'american'.
That is patently not true.
You of course are absolutely right for the UK. As the police in the UK do not pull over people, black or white and shot them you couldn't even calculate any stats as your sample size would be damn near zero (if not zero) for both.
You're right. 🤦♂️
The odds are zero in the UK, but definitely non-zero and statistically different in America.
What are the actual stats there out of interest. Population-weighted.
Have the doctors tried simply telling them that they are all-but-unaffected by covid?
Under 44-year-olds comprise about 14% of all hospitalisations in the UK. Realise that this is ICU but I think we'd need to see national data before drawing any conclusions from a tiny sample.
Hospitalisation skews noticeably younger than deaths; ICU skews noticeably younger than hospitalisations. And when you have so many people going through, a quarter of a large number ends up with a lot of people affected (rather than all-but-unaffected). A 45-year-old man, with no underlying conditions and a healthy BMI has a chance of dying of covid of a mere 0.15%. But his chance of being hospitalised is 2.0%. When hospitalised with covid, after successful discharge (hopefully), he will have eight times the likelihood of dying in the next six months that those who avoided covid hospitalisations did. And he is highly likely to be unable to say "no underlying health conditions" any more.
The meme that "the young are all-but-unaffected by covid" that spread so widely has glossed over an awful lot, not just Long Covid. It conflates "chance of dying" with "being affected at all", which is not exactly true.
I'm all for people making informed choices, but I do think that the information should be accurate.
Where have you found data stratified by UHC? It's virtually impossible to find in the UK bar the actual deaths numbers (which are stratified by that).
The total number of under-60s without UHC who have died from Covid in the UK stood at 377 as of December. There might be more recent data, but it will be in a similar range.
The "without underlying conditions" can be found from the qcovid risk tool - it assumes a one-in-fifty chance of contracting covid in the time period it uses as a reference, so put in whatever values you like, and then multiply the resulting score by fifty to get the outcomes if catching covid.
A useful graph in the ICNARC report is this one:
It's a log scale, which makes things look closer than they are, but it does provide a useful way of tracking the expected effects of vaccinations. Those 49 and under and without any conditions that would put them into Groups 2 or 6 of the vaccination programme usually ran about two doublings short of the largest group, which is Groups 5-9, and two-and-a-half doublings short of being larger than the entire occupancy on its own (obviously, with vaccinations taking effect, they're now less than one doubling short of Groups 5-9 and one-and-a-half doublings or so short of being as large as the entire ICU admissions on their own, if you see what I mean)
This area is the least affected by vaccinations to date, which is why I skip past the deaths and cases data to home in on the mechanical ventilation numbers (as a decent proxy for ICU occupation) - as long as that's still going down, the Government shouldn't worry; this is the area least affected by the vaccinations to date (albeit you can see the effects coming in by comparing the slopes of the Groups 1-4 and Groups 5-9 with the Phase 2 slope).
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
'Daily life' does not mean every day. It means in their normal existence; routinely. I think it is perfectly reasonable to assume people experience racism routinely.
So if not daily, give me a sense of what you mean by routine. Weekly? Fortnightly? Monthly? Yearly?
Don't be daft. You understand what routinely means.
A turn of phrase has a meaning that we all understand and don't take literally. A cock and bull story does not need either a cock nor a bull in it.
You need to quantify. You cant go from 'everyday' to 'well sometimes occasionally, cant quite think when last, but i did get followed once when i went clothes shopping'.
Just gibberish nonsense, it is perpetuated by well meaning people who dont want to let the side down, or (as in the american example just given) perceive or imagine that others are out to get them.
My first wife of fifteen years was west african, living in a northern almost entirely white town. Maybe twice or three times in that entire time was there any interaction that would fit the criteria of racism. Largely kids shouting something.
What wasnt that unusual would be a small child maybe asking loudly "Mummie why is that lady is brown", and the mother been deeply embarrassed. But only an arse takes interactions from young children offensively or people been interested in your braids as offensive.
No I don't need to quantify it as I didn't bring up the phrase in the first place. However you did misrepresent its meaning and I corrected you by quoting the actual meaning which is different.
You then quoted a USA stat incorrectly which I also corrected.
If you are going to state things here that are not correct then people are going to correct you. That is life.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
An example. My wife works in surgery centers in multiple locations giving vacation coverage. One doctor she covers for is 6'4" ex-military, 50s. The town is in deepest darkest Maryland (Cumberland, in the panhandle, near WVa). Surgery starts at 07:00 so that means driving to work mostly in the dark for a lot of the year.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
One of the minorly disturbing facets of the horrorshow of evidence being given at the Chauvin trial is that Floyd when stopped by Chauvin et al in his car was him begging them not to shoot him. Of course it went downhill from there...
The video of that was deeply disturbing and frankly upsetting
Someone has done the maths instead of Hugo Gye. 646K doses in total.
Over 400k second jabs. 💉💪
If we can maintain 500-600k a day, even if most are second jabs, through April, that is still a good bit of progress.
That'd be frankly amazing. 500k/day would be more than the March total of 14,569,635 March jabs
10,043,369 is the required number of second jabs in April.
So actually we know there will be probably less than 4,526,266 April 1st jabs.
I think we're going to have 2-3m first doses in April and then a big ramp up in May. Anyone who is over 35 should get their invite in mid-May and anyone over 30 towards the end of May. Around 1m Moderna and 1m Novavax doses are set to be delivered per week in May plus whatever we get from Pfizer and AZ for first dose usage. May is going to be a gigantic month.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Or they're just experiencing life from their own perspective. I don't think we realise how much our beliefs affect our life experience. If I felt that society was looking down on me for the colour of my skin, I can imagine that snooty waiters, rude people at ticket kiosks, unhelpful taxi drivers, posh snobs being posh snobs, people flying Union Jack flags, would all be viewed from a completely different perspective - though the actual circumstances of those encounters could be identical from person to person.
That said, I don't massively disagree with @kinabalu that we can still make things better. I think where I really differ is in the language used. We speak of 'reducing inequality' and 'reducing white privilege', but I think both those terms are wrong - because they focus attention on perceived problems, and they call for the 'winners' to be 'brought down a peg or two', because of the spurious idea that this will make the 'losers' happier. I don't want to 'reduce inequality' (I don't mind if it's reduced, but it's not my aim), I want to spread prosperity. By the same token, I suppose to don't want to end 'white privilege', I want to extend privilege. We can all get behind extending privilege. We can joyfully measure how much we're all extending it by.
Well I'm happy with a namecheck for wanting things to be better. Makes a change.
And, ok, fine. White Privilege is to be able to live your life without having to think about your skin colour. So the goal is indeed to spread this to all.
What is the fabled Post Racial Society? For me, a society where there is no assumption whatsoever, by anyone in any circumstances, of a link between a person's character or worth and their ethnicity.
Someone has done the maths instead of Hugo Gye. 646K doses in total.
Over 400k second jabs. 💉💪
If we can maintain 500-600k a day, even if most are second jabs, through April, that is still a good bit of progress.
That'd be frankly amazing. 500k/day would be more than the March total of 14,569,635 March jabs
10,043,369 is the required number of second jabs in April.
So actually we know there will be probably less than 4,526,266 April 1st jabs.
I think we're going to have 2-3m first doses in April and then a big ramp up in May. Anyone who is over 35 should get their invite in mid-May and anyone over 30 towards the end of May. Around 1m Moderna and 1m Novavax doses are set to be delivered per week in May plus whatever we get from Pfizer and AZ for first dose usage. May is going to be a gigantic month.
Agreed. I think that May is when we move away from being supply constrained at all. I would be unshocked (pleasantly surprised to an extent) if we got all over-18s jabbed with a first dose in May.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
But that seems to have been all the evidence that has been needed: American police sometimes kill black civilians - therefore Britain is institutionally racist. I'm sure you can see why some of us can see a few more steps are needed in the logic chain.
Yes, the fear may be worse than is justified by the figures, but I would like to point out that only 12.6% of the US population are Black (2010 census) so if you're African-American you're almost twice as likely to be killed by the police than Americans overall.
And anecdotally, the only time either me or my wife have been stopped by the police while driving around our small, fairly wealthy and mostly white NYC suburb was when my wife was giving some Black co-workers a lift to the railway station.
Is that the first day with more than a third of a million second doses? That's over 0.5% of the UK second-dose vaccinated in England alone in one day isn't it?
The second-dose graph must be looking interesting now for comparisons.
Yesterday
Who could have foreseen that trend?
More seriously, hopefully their percentages are the most vulnerable, and the third waves won't be as deadly as they could be as a result.
To be honest a lot of them have been all over the shop - some doing 20 year old health care workers before 85 year old care home residents - then they've had the AZ Hokey-Kokey - so fingers crossed, but I fear things will get worse before they get better....
Suspect the Conservative response may show Starmer kneeling.
How many recent Labour MPs / Lords have turned out to be crooks?
The current Tory PM is a crook
Convicted of? Just beating Labour into the ground doesn't count!
Being found guilty of a crime isn't a requirement of being a crook, but I did enjoy what you did find him guilty of, although to be fair Boris could put up the valid defence of 'he was asking for it guv'.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.
It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
I don't believe the "if I am not suffering from XYZ myself, I can't talk about it" line. To me that is just an acceptance for single issue lobby groups to run riot with whatever they want to make up. Campaigners need to be kept honest.
One blatant example that sticks out is the people lobbying from 2017 that the HoC only has 1% of disabled people as MPs to represent the 20% or so of people who can theoretically be identified as disabled. And therefore do what we say ... disability quotas ... yadda yadda yadda.
When examined, the 1% list seemed to consist of people in wheelchairs, and even excluded Theresa May herself.
Yet they made it as far as contributing a video report to the Daily Politics without being called on it.
Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.
The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
Does knowledge for example include reading every available study and police report on racism incidence?
Someone has done the maths instead of Hugo Gye. 646K doses in total.
Over 400k second jabs. 💉💪
If we can maintain 500-600k a day, even if most are second jabs, through April, that is still a good bit of progress.
That'd be frankly amazing. 500k/day would be more than the March total of 14,569,635 March jabs
10,043,369 is the required number of second jabs in April.
So actually we know there will be probably less than 4,526,266 April 1st jabs.
I think we're going to have 2-3m first doses in April and then a big ramp up in May. Anyone who is over 35 should get their invite in mid-May and anyone over 30 towards the end of May. Around 1m Moderna and 1m Novavax doses are set to be delivered per week in May plus whatever we get from Pfizer and AZ for first dose usage. May is going to be a gigantic month.
Ye - finger in the air I'd say 2 million first doses, 12 million second in April. My 10,043,369 is running strictly to 84 days - which we know won't happen and 2nd dose take up is 99% so not much lost on the other side there either.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.
It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
I don't believe the "if I am not suffering from XYZ myself, I can't talk about it" line. To me that is just an acceptance for single issue lobby groups to run riot with whatever they want to make up. Campaigners need to be kept honest.
One blatant example that sticks out is the people lobbying from 2017 that the HoC only has 1% of disabled people as MPs to represent the 20% or so of people who can theoretically be identified as disabled. And therefore do what we say ... disability quotas ... yadda yadda yadda.
When examined, the 1% list seemed to consist of people in wheelchairs, and even excluded Theresa May herself.
Yet they made it as far as contributing a video report to the Daily Politics without being called on it.
Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.
The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
That also opens you up for a shakedown though.
Yes. That must be guarded against. The trick is to be skeptical but not cynical.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
An example. My wife works in surgery centers in multiple locations giving vacation coverage. One doctor she covers for is 6'4" ex-military, 50s. The town is in deepest darkest Maryland (Cumberland, in the panhandle, near WVa). Surgery starts at 07:00 so that means driving to work mostly in the dark for a lot of the year.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
A couple of UK examples, not as serious as being shot, but nevertheless they stuck in my mind.
I was chatting with a black colleague about the BLM protests and she (highly educated, middle class lawyer) said she'd just settle for being able to go in a clothes shop without the security guard following her around.
Closer to home, my wife (East Asian ethnically) took on my surname for professional purposes despite not being keen on changing it for cultural reasons* because she thought it would help her career more than having a stereotypically Chinese name. She has said since that she found clients and colleagues who hadn't met her before interacted with her differently when they first encountered her as "Jane Smith" rather than "Jane Wang".
Neither of these are things that I would notice as a white guy or things that are easy to measure. I don't think it makes them untrue or unimportant.
*Very much her decision, I was completely unfussed about whether she took my name or not.
These are known in the trade as "micro-aggressions".
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
But that seems to have been all the evidence that has been needed: American police sometimes kill black civilians - therefore Britain is institutionally racist. I'm sure you can see why some of us can see a few more steps are needed in the logic chain.
Yes, the fear may be worse than is justified by the figures, but I would like to point out that only 12.6% of the US population are Black (2010 census) so if you're African-American you're almost twice as likely to be killed by the police than Americans overall.
And anecdotally, the only time either me or my wife have been stopped by the police while driving around our small, fairly wealthy and mostly white NYC suburb was when my wife was giving some Black co-workers a lift to the railway station.
That is part of my point. Fear does not need to be rational to be real. Nor can you deny the reality of racism simply by pointing to a couple of favorable statistics.
Quite apart from the question, how many of the whites killed by police were killed in part because they were white vs the same for the young male black population, given the perception that black men get killed by the police in large part because they are black men (e.g. for doing things which would not get a white person killed in the same situation), no matter how infrequently that is, it is entirely reasonable for young black men to adopt an attitude of fear towards how police will interact with them.
Is that the first day with more than a third of a million second doses? That's over 0.5% of the UK second-dose vaccinated in England alone in one day isn't it?
The second-dose graph must be looking interesting now for comparisons.
Yesterday
Better than that.
The target is 53m adults not 66.7m of entire population.
Is that the first day with more than a third of a million second doses? That's over 0.5% of the UK second-dose vaccinated in England alone in one day isn't it?
The second-dose graph must be looking interesting now for comparisons.
Yesterday
Better than that.
The target is 53m adults not 66.7m of entire population.
I must be missing Mr Keating's breathless tweets on this. Can someone direct me to them?
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
I think that's a bingo from me.
Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
It's not just the Russia-Ukraine border that's turning into a potential flashpoint. This just in from the A68 near Jedburgh.
Is that a Boxer ?
Yes. The British army will get its first examples in 2023; a mere 27 years after joining the program. World beating.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I don't think anyone is talking about changing the 12 week rule. It works, so why would they?
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
But that seems to have been all the evidence that has been needed: American police sometimes kill black civilians - therefore Britain is institutionally racist. I'm sure you can see why some of us can see a few more steps are needed in the logic chain.
Yes, the fear may be worse than is justified by the figures, but I would like to point out that only 12.6% of the US population are Black (2010 census) so if you're African-American you're almost twice as likely to be killed by the police than Americans overall.
However, academic studies have shown that you break that down by crime rates, particularly focusing on people who are killed while unarmed and non-aggressive, the racial disparity disappears. A black doctor worrying every day that he will be pulled over by the police and shot is akin to an eighteen year old wearing a mask while alone in their car for fear of dying of COVID: it points to both a mis-understanding of statistical probability and a fundamentally unhealthily anxious mindset, and encouraging either would be little more than irresponsible.
Is that the first day with more than a third of a million second doses? That's over 0.5% of the UK second-dose vaccinated in England alone in one day isn't it?
The second-dose graph must be looking interesting now for comparisons.
Yesterday
Better than that.
The target is 53m adults not 66.7m of entire population.
I must be missing Mr Keating's breathless tweets on this. Can someone direct me to them?
He seems to have gone off graphs a bit The Tweet that stood out to me was his comparing Ireland /UK to the Oliver Twist asking for some more scene when the "UK will donate vaccines to Ireland" story came out. The guy is out of his tree.
Right up until the moment Starmer leads Labour in voting against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill 2021, that is.
At which point it just looks thick.
I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:
1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.
2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.
Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I think we do what we have always - into arms pdq if we have the stocks, within the treatment guidelines.
Someone has done the maths instead of Hugo Gye. 646K doses in total.
Over 400k second jabs. 💉💪
If we can maintain 500-600k a day, even if most are second jabs, through April, that is still a good bit of progress.
That'd be frankly amazing. 500k/day would be more than the March total of 14,569,635 March jabs
10,043,369 is the required number of second jabs in April.
So actually we know there will be probably less than 4,526,266 April 1st jabs.
I think we're going to have 2-3m first doses in April and then a big ramp up in May. Anyone who is over 35 should get their invite in mid-May and anyone over 30 towards the end of May. Around 1m Moderna and 1m Novavax doses are set to be delivered per week in May plus whatever we get from Pfizer and AZ for first dose usage. May is going to be a gigantic month.
We still want million :-) .
One unforeseen hiccup in the EU rollout will be capacity.
eg If they are going to get anywhere near using up the vaccine that the EU is saying is coming in Q2 - if it all arrives on time - then Germany is going to have to increase it's current 7 day average rollout rate by a factor of FOUR to a million a day. Which is a hell of an ask, as it will take a lot of time to build up to the average then they have to exceed it to backfill the buildup.
EU will get bitten in the arse by misleading everyone how quick it will be, or if you are me they are teeing up another set of scapegoats in the individual countries for when everyone notices that 150k-200k EU Citizens are unnecessarily dead.
Looking at the vaccination numbers out today (all figures to 28/3), an update on the numbers for Newham.
98.982 first vaccinations have been administered - the total population is estimated at 350,000. Of those 46.245 have been given to those under 50 so nearly half.
Of those over 50 (87,856), 58,356 have had a first vaccination which is close to two thirds (66.4%) which is very good.
Among the elderly (70+), 14,047 out of 17,850 have received a first vaccination. That's 78.7% which hasn't changed much from last week suggesting the remainder are the "refuseniks" which is 3,803 people in the Borough all of whom, we must assume, are still vulnerable to coronavirus.
By comparison, in Surrey Heath, of the 13,933 population aged over 70, 13,728 have been vaccinated which is 98.5% and leave just 205 vulnerable people.
The England-wide above 70 numbers are striking, of the 7,836,871 over 70, 7,367,202 have had one vaccination and 1,136,544 have had both doses so that's 6 million of our second doses straight away.
94% of those over 70 have received one vaccination. Just 14.5% have had both so the need now is to get to the remaining 6 million over 70s in England and then start back down the population.
Right up until the moment Starmer leads Labour in voting against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill 2021, that is.
At which point it just looks thick.
I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:
1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.
2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.
Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
Also, the seeming focus on “woke” issues and minor Covid rule-breaking instead of, you know, actual crime.
Would indeed be strange to hear that from Labour, but potentially transformative in terms of how people perceive them.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I don't think anyone is talking about changing the 12 week rule. It works, so why would they?
It was something I inferred from some comments down the thread - the numbers show the gap in second vaccinations against first and the scale of what remains to be done. All of this makes the roadmap look entirely plausible and credible with a view to getting as many people as possible fully protected with two vaccinations by mid June.
There seemed an idea we had large stocks of "spare" vaccine so the programme of second doses could be advanced.
Right up until the moment Starmer leads Labour in voting against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill 2021, that is.
At which point it just looks thick.
I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:
1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.
2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.
Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
I don't think Labour are in any position to focus on anything, just at the moment. It is a deeply divided party (along Corbyn lines) and they must have been demoralised by the recent shenanigans in Liverpool. I don't know - I am not a Labour insider.
The Labour Party needs to make up its collective mind about what it is for - as indeed does the Conservative Party.
I think the debate about people being killed by the police is a bit of a red herring, especially in the UK, as mercifully that's vanishingly rare.
But it's a stretch to suggest that some black people don't face everyday racism. In a previous life, not long ago, I did a lot of interviewing of young people in urban environments. The most striking difference between those who were white and those who were black was their everyday experience of the police. While white youth rarely mentioned the police and had little interaction with them, for most black youth the police were a high profile, pervasive presence in their lives. Whether through formal stop and search, or just through casual interactions, many of the black youth were convinced that as far as the police were concerned they were under permanent suspicion of committing, or being equipped to commit, offences.
I don't intend to comment on yesterday's race report until I've read it properly (I know, poor form). But I have read the 24 recommendations. They're about as anodyne, kicking into the long grass, pointless recommendations as I've ever seen.
Is that the first day with more than a third of a million second doses? That's over 0.5% of the UK second-dose vaccinated in England alone in one day isn't it?
The second-dose graph must be looking interesting now for comparisons.
Yesterday
Better than that.
The target is 53m adults not 66.7m of entire population.
I must be missing Mr Keating's breathless tweets on this. Can someone direct me to them?
He seems to have gone off graphs a bit The Tweet that stood out to me was his comparing Ireland /UK to the Oliver Twist asking for some more scene when the "UK will donate vaccines to Ireland" story came out. The guy is out of his tree.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I don't think anyone is talking about changing the 12 week rule. It works, so why would they?
It was something I inferred from some comments down the thread - the numbers show the gap in second vaccinations against first and the scale of what remains to be done. All of this makes the roadmap look entirely plausible and credible with a view to getting as many people as possible fully protected with two vaccinations by mid June.
There seemed an idea we had large stocks of "spare" vaccine so the programme of second doses could be advanced.
I heard from someone the other day that second doses for those who recently received their first dose are being booked earlier than 12 weeks, presumably because the authorities are planning on having many more doses available come June.
Right up until the moment Starmer leads Labour in voting against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill 2021, that is.
At which point it just looks thick.
I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:
1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.
2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.
Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
The idea that Starmer storms back on law and order is ludicrous - they already lost the plot the other week when failing to bring down Cressida Dick. The clutching at straws for Starmer on here is painful.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.
It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
I don't believe the "if I am not suffering from XYZ myself, I can't talk about it" line. To me that is just an acceptance for single issue lobby groups to run riot with whatever they want to make up. Campaigners need to be kept honest.
One blatant example that sticks out is the people lobbying from 2017 that the HoC only has 1% of disabled people as MPs to represent the 20% or so of people who can theoretically be identified as disabled. And therefore do what we say ... disability quotas ... yadda yadda yadda.
When examined, the 1% list seemed to consist of people in wheelchairs, and even excluded Theresa May herself.
Yet they made it as far as contributing a video report to the Daily Politics without being called on it.
Anybody can have a view on anything and its weight derives from knowledge, empathy, imagination and insight. That's how I assess other people's opinions. How much of those 4 things they are bringing to the subject.
The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
That also opens you up for a shakedown though.
Yes. That must be guarded against. The trick is to be skeptical but not cynical.
I think the debate about people being killed by the police is a bit of a red herring, especially in the UK, as mercifully that's vanishingly rare.
But it's a stretch to suggest that some black people don't face everyday racism. In a previous life, not long ago, I did a lot of interviewing of young people in urban environments. The most striking difference between those who were white and those who were black was their everyday experience of the police. While white youth rarely mentioned the police and had little interaction with them, for most black youth the police were a high profile, pervasive presence in their lives. Whether through formal stop and search, or just through casual interactions, many of the black youth were convinced that as far as the police were concerned they were under permanent suspicion of committing, or being equipped to commit, offences.
I don't intend to comment on yesterday's race report until I've read it properly (I know, poor form). But I have read the 24 recommendations. They're about as anodyne, kicking into the long grass, pointless recommendations as I've ever seen.
I'd agree with that. I used the example 1. because I am in the US and it is one that is very personally relevant to our family and friends and 2. because the original statement to which I was responding - that no-one experiences racism in their daily lives - was so outrageous. But I also said that this was the US, not the UK, quite clearly.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I think we do what we have always - into arms pdq if we have the stocks, within the treatment guidelines.
Sadly - the whingers are gonna whinge - despite the fact that those of us living in much of Europe under 70 still face 4-6 weeks or more of waiting.
Right up until the moment Starmer leads Labour in voting against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill 2021, that is.
At which point it just looks thick.
I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:
1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.
2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.
Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
I don't think Labour are in any position to focus on anything, just at the moment. It is a deeply divided party (along Corbyn lines) and they must have been demoralised by the recent shenanigans in Liverpool. I don't know - I am not a Labour insider.
The Labour Party needs to make up its collective mind about what it is for - as indeed does the Conservative Party.
Labour lacks a collectiver mind - the result of its focus on identity politics. The Conservatives do need to make up their minds - why mess with a winning formula which goes back even to the dark days when the Liberals used to be a thing.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I don't think anyone is talking about changing the 12 week rule. It works, so why would they?
It was something I inferred from some comments down the thread - the numbers show the gap in second vaccinations against first and the scale of what remains to be done. All of this makes the roadmap look entirely plausible and credible with a view to getting as many people as possible fully protected with two vaccinations by mid June.
There seemed an idea we had large stocks of "spare" vaccine so the programme of second doses could be advanced.
If there are spare vaccines the focus should be to give good immunisation with more first doses. That way you save more lives.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I think we do what we have always - into arms pdq if we have the stocks, within the treatment guidelines.
Sadly - the whingers are gonna whinge - despite the fact that those of us living in much of Europe under 70 still face 4-6 weeks or more of waiting.
As I understand it, the 12 weeks has been treated as a maximum, not as an injunction to give a second dose 83 days, 23 hours, 59 minutes etc etc
Right up until the moment Starmer leads Labour in voting against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill 2021, that is.
At which point it just looks thick.
I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:
1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.
2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.
Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
The idea that Starmer storms back on law and order is ludicrous - they already lost the plot the other week when failing to bring down Cressida Dick. The clutching at straws for Starmer on here is painful.
Weird. Ignore completely what I wrote. Stick in a complete non-sequitur about Cressida Dick (did Priti Patel sack her? - thought not - HMI exonerated her, I thought?). Ah well, that's how Tories argue these days.
I think the debate about people being killed by the police is a bit of a red herring, especially in the UK, as mercifully that's vanishingly rare.
But it's a stretch to suggest that some black people don't face everyday racism. In a previous life, not long ago, I did a lot of interviewing of young people in urban environments. The most striking difference between those who were white and those who were black was their everyday experience of the police. While white youth rarely mentioned the police and had little interaction with them, for most black youth the police were a high profile, pervasive presence in their lives. Whether through formal stop and search, or just through casual interactions, many of the black youth were convinced that as far as the police were concerned they were under permanent suspicion of committing, or being equipped to commit, offences.
I don't intend to comment on yesterday's race report until I've read it properly (I know, poor form). But I have read the 24 recommendations. They're about as anodyne, kicking into the long grass, pointless recommendations as I've ever seen.
In line with that, one of my first cousins is mixed race (half black half white) and funnily enough he's the only member of my extended family to have had multiple negative encounters with the police. To be clear, he has never been charged with anything and I'm pretty certain he's not involved in anything that would justify it (doing well in life, lovely guy, middle class background etc.). Being stopped and searched/questioned is a part of his life in a way that it isn't for any of my other (white) relatives.
Right up until the moment Starmer leads Labour in voting against the Police, Crime, Sentencing, and Courts Bill 2021, that is.
At which point it just looks thick.
I think you could be wrong on this. Law and order could play well for Labour if they focus on two issues:
1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.
2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.
Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
Why do the major parties always promise to increase spending on the NHS - and generally follow through with it - but treat social care as a Cinderella, even though pumping money into it might be more efficient at producing better overall outcomes? Because people know what the NHS is; they don't really know or understand what social care is or does.
Similarly, improving detection rates and cutting delays would no doubt produce better outcomes (although if it were a cheap or easy process it would have happened already), but the detail of how you achieve that is not something the public really understands or cares to investigate. So instead of acquiring that knowledge, people use a set of heuristics: which side are you on, mine or theirs? Are you tough on criminals, or soft and sympathetic?
Labour fails to understand that in order to win a hearing for their more nuanced policy proposals they first need to pass that simple heuristic test in the court of public opinion. But with individual Labour MPs like Nadia Whittome and Zarah Sultana actively cheering on the Bristol mobs, and Starmer leading the entire party against the Bill, they're going to fail that test miserably.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
I don't think anyone is talking about changing the 12 week rule. It works, so why would they?
It was something I inferred from some comments down the thread - the numbers show the gap in second vaccinations against first and the scale of what remains to be done. All of this makes the roadmap look entirely plausible and credible with a view to getting as many people as possible fully protected with two vaccinations by mid June.
There seemed an idea we had large stocks of "spare" vaccine so the programme of second doses could be advanced.
If there are spare vaccines the focus should be to give good immunisation with more first doses. That way you save more lives.
As long as the 2nd doses remain within 10-11 weeks as per the treatment guidelines.
Because we are very nearly into the groups where the risk of death is very low, and that needs to be balanced with the further risk to the vulnerable or old people who are still due their second dose.
Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.
On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
"If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "
No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
Why do you say that?
Because people dont experience racism in their daily lives. They just dont. Daily life, every day? Have some truth in this. (obvious disclaimer, somewhere someone will)
An example. My wife works in surgery centers in multiple locations giving vacation coverage. One doctor she covers for is 6'4" ex-military, 50s. The town is in deepest darkest Maryland (Cumberland, in the panhandle, near WVa). Surgery starts at 07:00 so that means driving to work mostly in the dark for a lot of the year.
He is worried every day that he will be pulled over by the police, assumptions made because he is black, and he will be shot. This is not unreal. This is not occasionally. This is every day. At my wife's suggestion, he drives to work in his scrubs with a stethoscope and his hospital credentials around his neck.
I realize this is not the UK and that the British police do not routinely kill black men. But I am sure it would not be very hard at all to find an equivalent, if less extreme, example.
Clearly not relevant here. His chance as an unarmed black mad of been shot by american police is not really statistically different for a white person. It sounds like he is living in a state of fear more akin to a mental illness that isnt warranted. And once again, this is not the UK
That is just a weird statement to make as they are statistically different, significantly different.
Really?
What statistically were the odds of an innocent black driver being pulled over and shot by the Police in the UK last year compared to white drivers?
were any drivers pulled over and shot by police in UK last year
Comments
More seriously, hopefully their percentages are the most vulnerable, and the third waves won't be as deadly as they could be as a result.
The shorter you are on the knowledge (eg topic is racism and you are white) the longer you need to be on the empathy, imagination and insight.
16-49 18.8%
50-69 40.0%
70+ 55.8%
Just gibberish nonsense, it is perpetuated by well meaning people who dont want to let the side down, or (as in the american example just given) perceive or imagine that others are out to get them.
My first wife of fifteen years was west african, living in a northern almost entirely white town. Maybe twice or three times in that entire time was there any interaction that would fit the criteria of racism. Largely kids shouting something.
What wasnt that unusual would be a small child maybe asking loudly "Mummie why is that lady is brown", and the mother been deeply embarrassed. But only an arse takes interactions from young children offensively or people been interested in your braids as offensive.
The odds are zero in the UK, but definitely non-zero and statistically different in America.
Unbelievable stupidity so I gave him the benefit of the doubt he didn't mean that, even though he did.
14,569,635 March jabs
10,043,369 is the required number of second jabs in April.
So actually we know there will be probably less than 4,526,266 April 1st jabs.
The only actual possibly crookery that could be pinned on the PM is 3 decades (?) old.
A useful graph in the ICNARC report is this one:
It's a log scale, which makes things look closer than they are, but it does provide a useful way of tracking the expected effects of vaccinations.
Those 49 and under and without any conditions that would put them into Groups 2 or 6 of the vaccination programme usually ran about two doublings short of the largest group, which is Groups 5-9, and two-and-a-half doublings short of being larger than the entire occupancy on its own (obviously, with vaccinations taking effect, they're now less than one doubling short of Groups 5-9 and one-and-a-half doublings or so short of being as large as the entire ICU admissions on their own, if you see what I mean)
This area is the least affected by vaccinations to date, which is why I skip past the deaths and cases data to home in on the mechanical ventilation numbers (as a decent proxy for ICU occupation) - as long as that's still going down, the Government shouldn't worry; this is the area least affected by the vaccinations to date (albeit you can see the effects coming in by comparing the slopes of the Groups 1-4 and Groups 5-9 with the Phase 2 slope).
You then quoted a USA stat incorrectly which I also corrected.
If you are going to state things here that are not correct then people are going to correct you. That is life.
(And Jurassic is also fouind in the rest of Europe, for a start.)
https://twitter.com/KevorkAlmassian/status/1377542463431307264
And, ok, fine. White Privilege is to be able to live your life without having to think about your skin colour. So the goal is indeed to spread this to all.
What is the fabled Post Racial Society? For me, a society where there is no assumption whatsoever, by anyone in any circumstances, of a link between a person's character or worth and their ethnicity.
And anecdotally, the only time either me or my wife have been stopped by the police while driving around our small, fairly wealthy and mostly white NYC suburb was when my wife was giving some Black co-workers a lift to the railway station.
An example from The Thick of It:
https://thethickofit.gifglobe.com/scene/?id=89xkkQdU1eds
Quite apart from the question, how many of the whites killed by police were killed in part because they were white vs the same for the young male black population, given the perception that black men get killed by the police in large part because they are black men (e.g. for doing things which would not get a white person killed in the same situation), no matter how infrequently that is, it is entirely reasonable for young black men to adopt an attitude of fear towards how police will interact with them.
The target is 53m adults not 66.7m of entire population.
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1377627631244484612?s=20
"246 adverse AZ events in UK"
(this is the kitchen sink version, I expect.)
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/eu-review-of-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-risks-finds-246-adverse-events-in-uk-11617208435407.html
It certainly wasn't experienced by girls and boys in Rotherham.
I seem to remember some of the more ludicrous assertions on here we were going to get 10 million vaccinated before Christmas.
I'm not due to get my second vaccination until the end of May - this wasn't by choice but the NHS website deliberately not offering a date less than 11 weeks after the first vaccination.
Is it now being suggested having abandoned 3 weeks for 12 weeks (and that being shown to be a reasonable decision by the efficacy numbers), we now abandon the 12 week rule because we've ordered stupendously large amounts of vaccine?
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1016881/8238649
He seems to have gone off graphs a bit
This was a recent - comparing UK to Russia.
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
1. The abysmally low detection and conviction rates for a wide spectrum of crimes.
2. The abysmal delays in the criminal justice system (which precede Covid but have been exacerbated by it) leading to justice not being served for years, or in some cases being abandoned.
Tougher sentencing, as in the Bill, is a Tory mantra. But it means little if so few offenders are convicted and sentenced, and this is what Labour should be focusing on.
One unforeseen hiccup in the EU rollout will be capacity.
eg If they are going to get anywhere near using up the vaccine that the EU is saying is coming in Q2 - if it all arrives on time - then Germany is going to have to increase it's current 7 day average rollout rate by a factor of FOUR to a million a day. Which is a hell of an ask, as it will take a lot of time to build up to the average then they have to exceed it to backfill the buildup.
EU will get bitten in the arse by misleading everyone how quick it will be, or if you are me they are teeing up another set of scapegoats in the individual countries for when everyone notices that 150k-200k EU Citizens are unnecessarily dead.
98.982 first vaccinations have been administered - the total population is estimated at 350,000. Of those 46.245 have been given to those under 50 so nearly half.
Of those over 50 (87,856), 58,356 have had a first vaccination which is close to two thirds (66.4%) which is very good.
Among the elderly (70+), 14,047 out of 17,850 have received a first vaccination. That's 78.7% which hasn't changed much from last week suggesting the remainder are the "refuseniks" which is 3,803 people in the Borough all of whom, we must assume, are still vulnerable to coronavirus.
By comparison, in Surrey Heath, of the 13,933 population aged over 70, 13,728 have been vaccinated which is 98.5% and leave just 205 vulnerable people.
The England-wide above 70 numbers are striking, of the 7,836,871 over 70, 7,367,202 have had one vaccination and 1,136,544 have had both doses so that's 6 million of our second doses straight away.
94% of those over 70 have received one vaccination. Just 14.5% have had both so the need now is to get to the remaining 6 million over 70s in England and then start back down the population.
Would indeed be strange to hear that from Labour, but potentially transformative in terms of how people perceive them.
There seemed an idea we had large stocks of "spare" vaccine so the programme of second doses could be advanced.
The Labour Party needs to make up its collective mind about what it is for - as indeed does the Conservative Party.
But it's a stretch to suggest that some black people don't face everyday racism. In a previous life, not long ago, I did a lot of interviewing of young people in urban environments. The most striking difference between those who were white and those who were black was their everyday experience of the police. While white youth rarely mentioned the police and had little interaction with them, for most black youth the police were a high profile, pervasive presence in their lives. Whether through formal stop and search, or just through casual interactions, many of the black youth were convinced that as far as the police were concerned they were under permanent suspicion of committing, or being equipped to commit, offences.
I don't intend to comment on yesterday's race report until I've read it properly (I know, poor form). But I have read the 24 recommendations. They're about as anodyne, kicking into the long grass, pointless recommendations as I've ever seen.
@Northern_Al
Why do the major parties always promise to increase spending on the NHS - and generally follow through with it - but treat social care as a Cinderella, even though pumping money into it might be more efficient at producing better overall outcomes? Because people know what the NHS is; they don't really know or understand what social care is or does.
Similarly, improving detection rates and cutting delays would no doubt produce better outcomes (although if it were a cheap or easy process it would have happened already), but the detail of how you achieve that is not something the public really understands or cares to investigate. So instead of acquiring that knowledge, people use a set of heuristics: which side are you on, mine or theirs? Are you tough on criminals, or soft and sympathetic?
Labour fails to understand that in order to win a hearing for their more nuanced policy proposals they first need to pass that simple heuristic test in the court of public opinion. But with individual Labour MPs like Nadia Whittome and Zarah Sultana actively cheering on the Bristol mobs, and Starmer leading the entire party against the Bill, they're going to fail that test miserably.
Because we are very nearly into the groups where the risk of death is very low, and that needs to be balanced with the further risk to the vulnerable or old people who are still due their second dose.