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Vaccine passports – the first major political divide in the fight against COVID? – politicalbetting.

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Comments

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,082
    edited April 2021

    Here's what the EU is planning. It looks very sensible. (If the UK had any sense, which it doesn't, we'd join their scheme).

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1377561374822440960

    Would they even let us join? 3rd country status and all that.
    Dunno. But it would make sense to make this an international effort, especially given the importance of UK tourists to several of their economies.
    You see the mistake you have made there is presuming the EC will act logically....at the moment, it seems the smallest thing relating to the UK and they start acting like Basil Fawlty.
    Guilty as charged, m'lud.
    A good example is these electronic visas the EU are bringing in. Logically, it would be sensible to consider just how much British tourism contributes to the economies of Southern Europe and come up with an exemption in the same way as US / Canada exempt each other from their own versions of travel visa schemes, in order to make it as frictionless as possible for Bob and Barbara from Bolton to go to Grand Canaria.
    Agreed, although I think it's actually quite likely that there will an exemption by the time the scheme starts.
    Well logically you would think so, but there are a whole load of other stupid little things the EC have insisted on that doesn't help us or them, just feels like all to prove a point even if it means minor disadvantaging some part of the EU club. The sort of stuff you would have thought both sides would have agreed in an afternoon don't need altering, so that they could spend their time concentrating on the big important elements of any deal on trade.
  • Brom said:

    her hysterical announcements on many things are a joy to behold, with her fans hanging on her every word. Shes a left wing toby young with a phd
    She was also livid with our 12 week dose strategy which she's now gone quiet on. One wonders how she looks after her patients given how much of the day she dedicates to internetting.
    Are you saying 95% of the doctors who died from Covid were from ethnic minorities.

    95%.

    Or not?
    The number doesnt pass the smell test. It doesnt mean it is not true, but it is so extraordinary that it is either an out right lie, a distorted sample or the numbers are so low to not be statistically valid enough to draw a percentage.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355

    Brom said:

    her hysterical announcements on many things are a joy to behold, with her fans hanging on her every word. Shes a left wing toby young with a phd
    She was also livid with our 12 week dose strategy which she's now gone quiet on. One wonders how she looks after her patients given how much of the day she dedicates to internetting.
    Are you saying 95% of the doctors who died from Covid were from ethnic minorities.

    95%.

    Or not?
    I rather think that this all started from this - https://www.bmj.com/covid-memorial
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,101
    edited April 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Relative to what Beijing is doing then refusing indyref2 for a generation as is this Tory government's official policy is a moderate approach yes, as I said
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited April 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    There is, perhaps, a range of options which would still be not giving in to them without implying that not acting like faux-communist authoritarians is something people should feel gratutude about.

    Sticking with the 'No ref under any circumstances' policy is being tough without bringing in China comparisons.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    edited April 2021
    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    Indeed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428

    Brom said:

    her hysterical announcements on many things are a joy to behold, with her fans hanging on her every word. Shes a left wing toby young with a phd
    She was also livid with our 12 week dose strategy which she's now gone quiet on. One wonders how she looks after her patients given how much of the day she dedicates to internetting.
    Are you saying 95% of the doctors who died from Covid were from ethnic minorities.

    95%.

    Or not?
    That was the figure back in April 2020. It may have changed a bit. I think it likely to be (a) still a greater proportion than the background population and (b) a greater proportion that the background doctors population. As to why, no idea.
    I would ask why she is posting it in March 2021 when updates must be available.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    edited April 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Relative to what Beijing is doing then refusing indyref2 for a generation as is this Tory govenrment's official policy is a moderate approach yes
    Do you have any idea how your inflammatory comments are perceived though, fortunately, they are utterly unique to your absurd view
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227
    edited April 2021

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This is Godwin's law and I claim my £5 prize.

    Nein Reichmarks for you!
    I think that should be keine ...
  • kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    "If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "

    No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,101
    edited April 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Relative to what Beijing is doing then refusing indyref2 for a generation as is this Tory govenrment's official policy is a moderate approach yes
    Do you have any idea how your inflammatory comments are perceived though, fortunately, they are utterly unique to your absurd view
    You are the one who thinks the SNP should be given indyref2, it is me supporting the official Tory Party position of this UK Tory government of no legal indyref2 being allowed for another generation
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1324616486397370368?s=20
    It's official policy of the party to compare Scotland to Hong Kong and the Tory UK Government to the Communist Party of China?

    I don't think so.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    HYUFD said:

    Relative to what Beijing is doing then refusing indyref2 for a generation as is this Tory government's official policy is a moderate approach yes, as I said

    Hard to argue with that, to be fair!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,101

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1324616486397370368?s=20
    It's official policy of the party to compare Scotland to Hong Kong and the Tory UK Government to the Communist Party of China?

    I don't think so.
    I didn't, precisely the opposite, I said the Nationalists were lucky the UK government was not going down the Beijing route, merely refusing indyref2 for a generation
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,764
    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This seems a more serious point on the report:

    https://twitter.com/blackpoppies14/status/1377522299570638848
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Relative to what Beijing is doing then refusing indyref2 for a generation as is this Tory govenrment's official policy is a moderate approach yes
    Do you have any idea how your inflammatory comments are perceived though, fortunately, they are utterly unique to your absurd view
    You are the one who thinks the SNP should be given indyref2, it is me supporting the official Tory Party position of this UK Tory government of no legal indyref2 being allowed for another generation
    The difference is I believe the union can win the debate but your attitude inflames division and makes independence far more likely

    However, I do believe Boris will handle the issue with far more tact than your idiotic and insane musings
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,995
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.

    It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    'The Scottish Libertarian website claims: "We all know that government is a cancer."'

    Vote for me to become part of the cancer would be a courageous electoral slogan.

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/1377577733090238465?s=20

    Oh god. Not standing for Lab or the SNP, I hope!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355
    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This is Godwin's law and I claim my £5 prize.

    Nein Reichmarks for you!
    I think that should be keine ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A62njA3H-4c&t=141s
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Floater said:

    kamski said:

    algarkirk said:

    It all calls out for sober evaluation. No idea if the facts are correct, but if they are there are no obvious explanations with racist connotations, unless perhaps the good doctor wants to suggest that her medical sisters and brothers are giving preferential care to some and allowing others to die?
    I guess the suggestion is that minority doctors have fewer opportunities to avoid heavy exposure to the virus?
    So white doctors get first divs on PPE and can avod work on covid wards?

    Absolute bullshit

    She probably thinks this is represenative of NHS management.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQnEBSwdAXw
    Chef "have you not heard of the Emancipation Proclamation?"
    General "I dont listen to hip hop"
    Brilliant and still timeless.

    While an off beat crude and rude comedy there are so many elements of that movie that like Yes, Minister still reflect how people act today.

    The whole EU vaccine mess has been "Blame Canada the UK".
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206

    theProle said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't see how people (i.e. the Government) can simultaneously argue that the vaccines are excellent in terms of effectiveness (particularly at reducing hospitalisation and death) and that take-up is also extremely high, much higher than had been hoped for, and yet vaccine passports are also still needed. There seems to be a failure of logic in that somewhere to me,

    Especially if you add to the mix of that the promise of removing all legal restrictions on social distancing on June 21 and also the promise that no such passports would be offered domestically until all the adult population had been offered a jab.

    I just don't see the inconsistency. Vaccination is such a good thing we want more of it. We want to encourage groups in our society who have been more resistant to comply. We want to incentivise them to comply.

    Vaccination is not an end in and of itself. It's purpose is to prevent spread of disease and illness and death from the disease.

    If there is sufficient take up to get strong herd immunity (which all the evidence suggests there will be), why should we worry about the 5% or so of people who don't want to be vaccinated.

    Vaccines, like pretty much all medication, have side effects - ie they aren't cost free to administer - I know several people who have had a week or so of feeling really rough after vaccination. My workplace has had far more lost time from vaccinations than anything to do with catching Covid or self-isolation etc. If (and it's a very big if) the German stuff about blood clots in young women from AZ is correct, I think that their chances of experiencing those sorts of clots are around the same order of magnitude as their chances of death if they catch Covid (both vanishingly small, but it's important to understand the relative risk).

    I think it's at least dubious, probably unethical, to heavily pressure groups at little or no risk from Covid to take a vaccine they don't need. I certainly won't be having one now as someone at negligible risk. When I'm in my 50s, I'll probably be jabbed if Covid is still a think - I'm not inherently anti-vax or anything, just don't see the cost/benefit calculation being in favour of a jab as a low risk individual in a society which will be well past the herd immunity threshold* by the time I'm offered a jab

    *the ONS survey earlier this week suggests we're almost there now.
    The ONS survey does not suggest we are past the herd immunity "threshold"

    Unless you mean by "threshold" the level required to have some effect on the transmission of the virus.

    We have a considerable way to go on that - probably would need a 70-80% take-up in the population as a whole to get to the position where COVID would die out, buy itself, without any restrictions.

    What is critical here is that the vaccination doesn't just effect what happens to you, the vaccinated person. It effects your probability of passing COVID to someone else. Which is what herd immunity is about.

    Which is why vaccinating everyone is important. A 90% take-up in the adult population would be a 73% take-up in the population as a whole.

    This in turn is why the Pfizer trial for vaccinating children is good news - if we can vaccinate children down to 5 as well, a 90% take up becomes an 84% vaccination rate for the population as a whole.
    The ONS data, sampled on the 14th March say 55% had antibodies then.
    That effectively is the age groups jabbed up to about 1st of March, ie 20 million or about 30% of the total population, therefore presumably about 25% for prior infection.
    Since then we've jabbed about another 10milion, or 15% of the total population, so in a couple of weeks (for the most recent jabs to take effect) we're looking at anti-bodies in 70% of the total population. That's at the plausible lower end of the herd immunity range. Another month of jabs and we'll pushing 80%, so definitely into herd immunity.

    I said we are almost there now, based on the ONS numbers - unless I've made a major mathematical error, I think that's about right.

    Once we hit that, why should we be worrying about further vaccine uptake? Obviously keep offering it to those who want it, but there is zero reason to go chasing down those who aren't interested.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,995
    edited April 2021
    kinabalu said:

    'The Scottish Libertarian website claims: "We all know that government is a cancer."'

    Vote for me to become part of the cancer would be a courageous electoral slogan.

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/1377577733090238465?s=20

    Oh god. Not standing for Lab or the SNP, I hope!
    No, he actually is standing for the Scottish Libertarians.

    The Scottish election is going to be a rich smorgasbord of fruitcakes, loons and not-so-closeted racists, hope you're all suitably grateful for the entertainment provided. Even Lozza Fox (or his party) is entering the fray!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,542

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Judges not ministers decide what is illegal.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    He’s going to enjoy that. Irish and Uk inheritance tax don’t play well together
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,101

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Relative to what Beijing is doing then refusing indyref2 for a generation as is this Tory govenrment's official policy is a moderate approach yes
    Do you have any idea how your inflammatory comments are perceived though, fortunately, they are utterly unique to your absurd view
    You are the one who thinks the SNP should be given indyref2, it is me supporting the official Tory Party position of this UK Tory government of no legal indyref2 being allowed for another generation
    The difference is I believe the union can win the debate but your attitude inflames division and makes independence far more likely

    However, I do believe Boris will handle the issue with far more tact than your idiotic and insane musings
    On current polling there is a 50% chance of a Yes vote, 50% chance of a No vote and even if No narrowly wins the Nationalists will demand another one the day after.

    So no, a generation means a generation and Boris as head of this UK government has made that absolutely clear
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    Here's what the EU is planning. It looks very sensible. (If the UK had any sense, which it doesn't, we'd join their scheme).

    Why aren't they using the IATA or ICAO proposals? If the EU does its own thing, people will need an additional vaccine passport for travel outside of the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,101

    'The Scottish Libertarian website claims: "We all know that government is a cancer."'

    Vote for me to become part of the cancer would be a courageous electoral slogan.

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/1377577733090238465?s=20

    If we got a Libertarian government there would barely be any government left, most public services would be privatised, taxes slashed, drugs and prostitution legalised etc.

    Government would only be there to defend private property and stop violence against others
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,596
    theProle said:

    theProle said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't see how people (i.e. the Government) can simultaneously argue that the vaccines are excellent in terms of effectiveness (particularly at reducing hospitalisation and death) and that take-up is also extremely high, much higher than had been hoped for, and yet vaccine passports are also still needed. There seems to be a failure of logic in that somewhere to me,

    Especially if you add to the mix of that the promise of removing all legal restrictions on social distancing on June 21 and also the promise that no such passports would be offered domestically until all the adult population had been offered a jab.

    I just don't see the inconsistency. Vaccination is such a good thing we want more of it. We want to encourage groups in our society who have been more resistant to comply. We want to incentivise them to comply.

    Vaccination is not an end in and of itself. It's purpose is to prevent spread of disease and illness and death from the disease.

    If there is sufficient take up to get strong herd immunity (which all the evidence suggests there will be), why should we worry about the 5% or so of people who don't want to be vaccinated.

    Vaccines, like pretty much all medication, have side effects - ie they aren't cost free to administer - I know several people who have had a week or so of feeling really rough after vaccination. My workplace has had far more lost time from vaccinations than anything to do with catching Covid or self-isolation etc. If (and it's a very big if) the German stuff about blood clots in young women from AZ is correct, I think that their chances of experiencing those sorts of clots are around the same order of magnitude as their chances of death if they catch Covid (both vanishingly small, but it's important to understand the relative risk).

    I think it's at least dubious, probably unethical, to heavily pressure groups at little or no risk from Covid to take a vaccine they don't need. I certainly won't be having one now as someone at negligible risk. When I'm in my 50s, I'll probably be jabbed if Covid is still a think - I'm not inherently anti-vax or anything, just don't see the cost/benefit calculation being in favour of a jab as a low risk individual in a society which will be well past the herd immunity threshold* by the time I'm offered a jab

    *the ONS survey earlier this week suggests we're almost there now.
    The ONS survey does not suggest we are past the herd immunity "threshold"

    Unless you mean by "threshold" the level required to have some effect on the transmission of the virus.

    We have a considerable way to go on that - probably would need a 70-80% take-up in the population as a whole to get to the position where COVID would die out, buy itself, without any restrictions.

    What is critical here is that the vaccination doesn't just effect what happens to you, the vaccinated person. It effects your probability of passing COVID to someone else. Which is what herd immunity is about.

    Which is why vaccinating everyone is important. A 90% take-up in the adult population would be a 73% take-up in the population as a whole.

    This in turn is why the Pfizer trial for vaccinating children is good news - if we can vaccinate children down to 5 as well, a 90% take up becomes an 84% vaccination rate for the population as a whole.
    The ONS data, sampled on the 14th March say 55% had antibodies then.
    That effectively is the age groups jabbed up to about 1st of March, ie 20 million or about 30% of the total population, therefore presumably about 25% for prior infection.
    Since then we've jabbed about another 10milion, or 15% of the total population, so in a couple of weeks (for the most recent jabs to take effect) we're looking at anti-bodies in 70% of the total population. That's at the plausible lower end of the herd immunity range. Another month of jabs and we'll pushing 80%, so definitely into herd immunity.

    I said we are almost there now, based on the ONS numbers - unless I've made a major mathematical error, I think that's about right.

    Once we hit that, why should we be worrying about further vaccine uptake? Obviously keep offering it to those who want it, but there is zero reason to go chasing down those who aren't interested.
    You could also describe it as "the levels of population immunity that dramatically increase the chance of viral mutation, while infection rates plateau at a significant level". This is a comparatively dangerous stage as it encourages complacency when the directions of travel can be "significantly better" or "significantly worse".
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited April 2021
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    Indeed.
    My first reaction to the report was "Well, that sounds mightily complacent".

    I wonder if some of the issue pertains to what people interpret as 'institutional racism'. If it is overt structures and rules that can clearly be identified as either intentionally or unintentionally resulting in differential outcomes based on race, then I think there could be no dispute that that is institutional racism. It may be that this is how the Commission was using the term.

    However, it is clear that there are a lot of subconscious actions and attitudes which are not so clearly identified, and which may be applied regardless of race, but the outcomes of which also have differential outcomes along racial lines because of environmental and other factors that statistically run along racial lines. If this is your definition of institutional racism, then the Commission's report is clearly wrong to say institutional racism is dead in the UK.

    Then there are those for whom all real and imagined racism must be institutional because [one random anecdote][Tories][insert buggabear here]
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,101
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Judges not ministers decide what is illegal.

    Judges cannot overrule Westminster statute and the Scotland Act 1998 which reserves Union matters to Westminster
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355
    Charles said:

    He’s going to enjoy that. Irish and Uk inheritance tax don’t play well together
    I thought that was only if the person in question was a tax payer in Ireland? I presume that his new love of Ireland ddn't extend to paying tax to the Irish state....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Judges not ministers decide what is illegal.

    Plus I believe such a referendum may be "unlawful" but not "illegal", to be pedantic.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Judges not ministers decide what is illegal.

    Judges cannot overrule Westminster statute and the Scotland Act 1998 which reserves Union matters to Westminster
    Yeah but judges can interpret the Scotland Act 1998 and their interpretation may be different to yours. Who knows?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,210

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    :D that's a banker...
    Presumably we ought also to be grateful that the government hasn't yet set up mass detention camps for reeducation of non Tories ?
    I realise it's April 1st, but sometimes HYUFD's humour doesn't quite come across I'm sure he intends.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Relative to what Beijing is doing then refusing indyref2 for a generation as is this Tory govenrment's official policy is a moderate approach yes
    Do you have any idea how your inflammatory comments are perceived though, fortunately, they are utterly unique to your absurd view
    You are the one who thinks the SNP should be given indyref2, it is me supporting the official Tory Party position of this UK Tory government of no legal indyref2 being allowed for another generation
    The difference is I believe the union can win the debate but your attitude inflames division and makes independence far more likely

    However, I do believe Boris will handle the issue with far more tact than your idiotic and insane musings
    On current polling there is a 50% chance of a Yes vote, 50% chance of a No vote and even if No narrowly wins the Nationalists will demand another one the day after.

    So no, a generation means a generation and Boris as head of this UK government has made that absolutely clear
    Boris has made lots of things absolutely clear, and has subsequently backtracked on them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Sean_F said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    So the people who don’t like the report disagree with the people who do like the report. It’s “confrontational” to be told that someone disagrees with you I guess?

    But not confrontational to sound off to the press?
    The background of some of the people selected for the Commission pretty much predestined its daft conclusions. One member has views on foreign aid so extreme that Bill Gates reviewed her book as "promoting evil". Another is openly partisan in anti-Labour politics. A third talked about gay people as "tortured queens".

    This editorial summarises the views of many of us, not only those who routinely expound on these issues.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/31/the-guardian-view-on-boris-johnsons-race-review-you-cannot-be-serious

    It's simply a missed opportunity. It is clearly true that there are many causes of inequality, not only racism But it is laughable to dismiss it, since it alienates ordinary people who experience everyday hassle for being black - being routinely stopped to prove you own your car is a well-known example. It's one thing to put up with systematic unfairness without letting it dominate your life. It's something else for a Government-appointed body to tell you the problem doesn't exist.
    Yes, it's fascinating how many people have such strong views on a report they haven't read.
    The only acceptable report, in the eyes of some campaigners, would be one that brands modern Britain as an oppressive hellhole.

    And, the idea that this report "glorifies slavery" is completely off the wall.
    If nothing else, it fails Occam's Razor: why on earth would anyone of African ancestry want to "glorify slavery"?

    The most plausible explanation is that they believe the reports authors have been "gaslit" into being "Uncle Toms" by their White masters, and otherwise just bought off as race traitors, which is offensive on so many levels.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    It's very revealing that most of the indignation and disagreement on the racism report is about definitions ("institutional racism"), rather than about the real issue, which is what should be done to improve people's lives and opportunities.

    There's a whole grievance industry out there that depends on it.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This seems a more serious point on the report:

    https://twitter.com/blackpoppies14/status/1377522299570638848
    “Consulted without their knowledge” is a fascinating turn of phrase.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1324616486397370368?s=20
    It's official policy of the party to compare Scotland to Hong Kong and the Tory UK Government to the Communist Party of China?

    I don't think so.
    I didn't, precisely the opposite, I said the Nationalists were lucky the UK government was not going down the Beijing route, merely refusing indyref2 for a generation
    There's no luck involved unless you think the Tories are comparable with the Communists. Why would you choose to make that comparison?

    That's as incendiary as a Scottish nationalist saying the UK is lucky that Scots aren't bombing towns and cities across England. Except nobody here is stupid enough to say that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    COVID is clearly structurally racist.
    FFS now viruses are racist, is there anything left on the planet that is not racist nowadays.
    Racism perpetrated by non whites barely gets a mention
    I have never ever seen it mentioned.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Sean_F said:

    Stocky said:

    Delusion is the only word for it. How to stop people like this having a voice so far over and above what their inadequate logic-circuit deserves?
    What we need are some numbers.

    Ah, I have checked the source. It is from April 2020, and comprises 19 doctors! Cherrypicking statistics indeed.
    At heart, it's all very logical though.

    They've calculated that accusing the UK of "institutional racism" - and howling down any opposition to that - proffers the most promising vector for propagating their culturally marxist politics, and they can do it without winning an election too.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    edited April 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlistairM said:
    38% rejoin is still very high.....EU willing to throw your granny under the bus, while happy to cozy up to Russia and China...and still 38%.
    Leave only won by 4%, now oppose rejoining the EU leads by 8%
    Yes but this is peak EU are making themselves look absolutely terrible.
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1377361545785663490?s=20

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1377361674324254721?s=20
    Heart of stone and al that..............
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,210
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Judges not ministers decide what is illegal.

    But is that "the official Tory Party position of this UK Tory government" ... ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1324616486397370368?s=20
    Yawn......... a nobody
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    mwadams said:

    theProle said:

    theProle said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't see how people (i.e. the Government) can simultaneously argue that the vaccines are excellent in terms of effectiveness (particularly at reducing hospitalisation and death) and that take-up is also extremely high, much higher than had been hoped for, and yet vaccine passports are also still needed. There seems to be a failure of logic in that somewhere to me,

    Especially if you add to the mix of that the promise of removing all legal restrictions on social distancing on June 21 and also the promise that no such passports would be offered domestically until all the adult population had been offered a jab.

    I just don't see the inconsistency. Vaccination is such a good thing we want more of it. We want to encourage groups in our society who have been more resistant to comply. We want to incentivise them to comply.

    Vaccination is not an end in and of itself. It's purpose is to prevent spread of disease and illness and death from the disease.

    If there is sufficient take up to get strong herd immunity (which all the evidence suggests there will be), why should we worry about the 5% or so of people who don't want to be vaccinated.

    Vaccines, like pretty much all medication, have side effects - ie they aren't cost free to administer - I know several people who have had a week or so of feeling really rough after vaccination. My workplace has had far more lost time from vaccinations than anything to do with catching Covid or self-isolation etc. If (and it's a very big if) the German stuff about blood clots in young women from AZ is correct, I think that their chances of experiencing those sorts of clots are around the same order of magnitude as their chances of death if they catch Covid (both vanishingly small, but it's important to understand the relative risk).

    I think it's at least dubious, probably unethical, to heavily pressure groups at little or no risk from Covid to take a vaccine they don't need. I certainly won't be having one now as someone at negligible risk. When I'm in my 50s, I'll probably be jabbed if Covid is still a think - I'm not inherently anti-vax or anything, just don't see the cost/benefit calculation being in favour of a jab as a low risk individual in a society which will be well past the herd immunity threshold* by the time I'm offered a jab

    *the ONS survey earlier this week suggests we're almost there now.
    The ONS survey does not suggest we are past the herd immunity "threshold"

    Unless you mean by "threshold" the level required to have some effect on the transmission of the virus.

    We have a considerable way to go on that - probably would need a 70-80% take-up in the population as a whole to get to the position where COVID would die out, buy itself, without any restrictions.

    What is critical here is that the vaccination doesn't just effect what happens to you, the vaccinated person. It effects your probability of passing COVID to someone else. Which is what herd immunity is about.

    Which is why vaccinating everyone is important. A 90% take-up in the adult population would be a 73% take-up in the population as a whole.

    This in turn is why the Pfizer trial for vaccinating children is good news - if we can vaccinate children down to 5 as well, a 90% take up becomes an 84% vaccination rate for the population as a whole.
    The ONS data, sampled on the 14th March say 55% had antibodies then.
    That effectively is the age groups jabbed up to about 1st of March, ie 20 million or about 30% of the total population, therefore presumably about 25% for prior infection.
    Since then we've jabbed about another 10milion, or 15% of the total population, so in a couple of weeks (for the most recent jabs to take effect) we're looking at anti-bodies in 70% of the total population. That's at the plausible lower end of the herd immunity range. Another month of jabs and we'll pushing 80%, so definitely into herd immunity.

    I said we are almost there now, based on the ONS numbers - unless I've made a major mathematical error, I think that's about right.

    Once we hit that, why should we be worrying about further vaccine uptake? Obviously keep offering it to those who want it, but there is zero reason to go chasing down those who aren't interested.
    You could also describe it as "the levels of population immunity that dramatically increase the chance of viral mutation, while infection rates plateau at a significant level". This is a comparatively dangerous stage as it encourages complacency when the directions of travel can be "significantly better" or "significantly worse".
    But the evidence seems to point to long infections in immunologically-compromised individuals, not overall size of unprotected populations, as the driver of the most dangerous mutations. Driving up general population vaccination on an involuntary basis would have virtually no impact on that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,101

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Judges not ministers decide what is illegal.

    Judges cannot overrule Westminster statute and the Scotland Act 1998 which reserves Union matters to Westminster
    Yeah but judges can interpret the Scotland Act 1998 and their interpretation may be different to yours. Who knows?
    At most they could say a referendum with no legal validity could be held which the UK government could ignore as it would.

    The government also has a majority and can amend Statute as it wishes
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    You are insane and as a member of the conservative party I condemn your remarks, especially as you hold a position in our party
    Tough, we are not giving in to the Nationalists
    Have you cleared your statement with your local party
    It is the official policy of the UK wide party never mind just the local party

    https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1355851689736216576?s=20
    So you have had approval for saying Scotland is lucky not to have Westminster replace its elected officers with centrally imposed unionists

    Judges not ministers decide what is illegal.

    Judges cannot overrule Westminster statute and the Scotland Act 1998 which reserves Union matters to Westminster
    Yeah but judges can interpret the Scotland Act 1998 and their interpretation may be different to yours. Who knows?
    At most they could say a referendum with no legal validity could be held which the UK government could ignore as it would.

    The government also has a majority and can amend Statute as it wishes
    You say that like it's unusual?

    All referendums in this country have no legal validity, save the AV referendum. The EU referendum included.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.

    It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
    Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,210
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    It's not just the Russia-Ukraine border that's turning into a potential flashpoint. This just in from the A68 near Jedburgh.


    Is that a Boxer ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. Not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    "If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. "

    No you dont. They are almost certainly lying.
    Why do you say that?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlistairM said:
    38% rejoin is still very high.....EU willing to throw your granny under the bus, while happy to cozy up to Russia and China...and still 38%.
    Leave only won by 4%, now oppose rejoining the EU leads by 8%
    Yes but this is peak EU are making themselves look absolutely terrible.
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1377361545785663490?s=20

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1377361674324254721?s=20
    Heart of stone and al that..............
    Libdems, your moment has arrived.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlistairM said:
    38% rejoin is still very high.....EU willing to throw your granny under the bus, while happy to cozy up to Russia and China...and still 38%.
    Leave only won by 4%, now oppose rejoining the EU leads by 8%
    Yes but this is peak EU are making themselves look absolutely terrible.
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1377361545785663490?s=20

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1377361674324254721?s=20
    Heart of stone and al that..............
    Libdems, your moment has arrived.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    Ash has hooked a fair few April Fools with this one. Much spluttering about "cancelled subscriptions" to the esteemed reactionary organ :smile: -
    https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1377513510758981632
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    HYUFD said:

    Relative to what Beijing is doing then refusing indyref2 for a generation as is this Tory government's official policy is a moderate approach yes, as I said

    Hard to argue with that, to be fair!
    If you were a cretinous moronic halfwit , I agree. Your cap will be delivered later Sir.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    "In any case in England at least the 30m who so so far have been vaccinated have been given a little cardboard card."

    I can't imagine it would be possible to fake one of those.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    It's not just the Russia-Ukraine border that's turning into a potential flashpoint. This just in from the A68 near Jedburgh.


    Is that a Boxer ?
    Yes. The British army will get its first examples in 2023; a mere 27 years after joining the program. World beating.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,202
    edited April 2021
    Facebook message from my local surgery

    Today we have stated to invite patients from who qualify for a covid vaccination under Phase 2 of the national programme (patients who are aged between 18 and 49)
    Due to vaccine supplies we will be calling patients in age order starting with the oldest first. Today we have sent a text message to all patients with a mobile number recorded as their preferred method of communication and aged between 40 and 49 years

    I miss out on this by... 3 months !
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This seems a more serious point on the report:

    https://twitter.com/blackpoppies14/status/1377522299570638848
    "Did they deliberately find another Stephen Bourne so they could use the name?
    Would not put it past them!"

    Those.
    Replies.

  • A serving probationary officer has become the first British police officer to be convicted of belonging to a banned neo-Nazi terror group following a trial at the Old Bailey.

    PC Ben Hannam, 22, was found guilty of membership of banned rightwing extremist group National Action following a trial at the Old Bailey.

    He was also convicted of lying on his application and vetting forms to join the Metropolitan police and having terror documents detailing knife combat and making explosive devices.

    A jury had deliberated for more than 32 hours to find Hannam guilty on Thursday.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/01/ben-hannam-met-police-officer-guilty-belonging-banned-neo-nazi-terror-group
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    SNIP
    .
    SNIP
    Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
    It was hundreds of years ago , it is just bollox. People in this country were treated as bad by their lords and masters in those days. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against poor people of all colours. It is a good crutch for some people for sure. Lots and lots of non whites prosper in this country just same as whites and many are left behind just like whites. Too many outrage buses whining about something from hundreds of years ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This seems a more serious point on the report:

    https://twitter.com/blackpoppies14/status/1377522299570638848
    "Did they deliberately find another Stephen Bourne so they could use the name?
    Would not put it past them!"

    Those.
    Replies.

    There's one Bourne every minute.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.

    It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
    Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
    It is interesting and not quite that simple, I fear. In the US, the Afro Caribbean and African first generation immigrants both outperform (and, to an extent, look down on) native born African Americans.

    I wonder if it has more to do with prevailing racist attitudes at the time families first arrived in the majority white country, setting up a community culture which has since persisted and that may have been helpful in that original environment, but does not work in this.

    Before there are howls of protest, I am not victim-blaming here, but trying to understand how 2nd and 3rd generation Afro Caribbeans in the UK have a different life experience to their 1st generation compatriots in the US, which is clearly not less racist than the UK.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    SNIP
    .
    SNIP
    Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
    It was hundreds of years ago , it is just bollox. People in this country were treated as bad by their lords and masters in those days. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against poor people of all colours. It is a good crutch for some people for sure. Lots and lots of non whites prosper in this country just same as whites and many are left behind just like whites. Too many outrage buses whining about something from hundreds of years ago.
    Are we talking about Scottish Nationalism now, or racial equality?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This seems a more serious point on the report:

    https://twitter.com/blackpoppies14/status/1377522299570638848
    "Did they deliberately find another Stephen Bourne so they could use the name?
    Would not put it past them!"

    Those.
    Replies.


    I hope they have not listed as 'consulted' those whose works they read as background to deliberations. That would be naughty.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Floater said:

    Is that for rounding up the Welsh in England and herding them across the border back into Wales?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    edited April 2021
    mwadams said:

    theProle said:

    theProle said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't see how people (i.e. the Government) can simultaneously argue that the vaccines are excellent in terms of effectiveness (particularly at reducing hospitalisation and death) and that take-up is also extremely high, much higher than had been hoped for, and yet vaccine passports are also still needed. There seems to be a failure of logic in that somewhere to me,

    Especially if you add to the mix of that the promise of removing all legal restrictions on social distancing on June 21 and also the promise that no such passports would be offered domestically until all the adult population had been offered a jab.

    I just don't see the inconsistency. Vaccination is such a good thing we want more of it. We want to encourage groups in our society who have been more resistant to comply. We want to incentivise them to comply.

    Vaccination is not an end in and of itself. It's purpose is to prevent spread of disease and illness and death from the disease.

    If there is sufficient take up to get strong herd immunity (which all the evidence suggests there will be), why should we worry about the 5% or so of people who don't want to be vaccinated.

    Vaccines, like pretty much all medication, have side effects - ie they aren't cost free to administer - I know several people who have had a week or so of feeling really rough after vaccination. My workplace has had far more lost time from vaccinations than anything to do with catching Covid or self-isolation etc. If (and it's a very big if) the German stuff about blood clots in young women from AZ is correct, I think that their chances of experiencing those sorts of clots are around the same order of magnitude as their chances of death if they catch Covid (both vanishingly small, but it's important to understand the relative risk).

    I think it's at least dubious, probably unethical, to heavily pressure groups at little or no risk from Covid to take a vaccine they don't need. I certainly won't be having one now as someone at negligible risk. When I'm in my 50s, I'll probably be jabbed if Covid is still a think - I'm not inherently anti-vax or anything, just don't see the cost/benefit calculation being in favour of a jab as a low risk individual in a society which will be well past the herd immunity threshold* by the time I'm offered a jab

    *the ONS survey earlier this week suggests we're almost there now.
    The ONS survey does not suggest we are past the herd immunity "threshold"

    Unless you mean by "threshold" the level required to have some effect on the transmission of the virus.

    We have a considerable way to go on that - probably would need a 70-80% take-up in the population as a whole to get to the position where COVID would die out, buy itself, without any restrictions.

    What is critical here is that the vaccination doesn't just effect what happens to you, the vaccinated person. It effects your probability of passing COVID to someone else. Which is what herd immunity is about.

    Which is why vaccinating everyone is important. A 90% take-up in the adult population would be a 73% take-up in the population as a whole.

    This in turn is why the Pfizer trial for vaccinating children is good news - if we can vaccinate children down to 5 as well, a 90% take up becomes an 84% vaccination rate for the population as a whole.
    The ONS data, sampled on the 14th March say 55% had antibodies then.
    That effectively is the age groups jabbed up to about 1st of March, ie 20 million or about 30% of the total population, therefore presumably about 25% for prior infection.
    Since then we've jabbed about another 10milion, or 15% of the total population, so in a couple of weeks (for the most recent jabs to take effect) we're looking at anti-bodies in 70% of the total population. That's at the plausible lower end of the herd immunity range. Another month of jabs and we'll pushing 80%, so definitely into herd immunity.

    I said we are almost there now, based on the ONS numbers - unless I've made a major mathematical error, I think that's about right.

    Once we hit that, why should we be worrying about further vaccine uptake? Obviously keep offering it to those who want it, but there is zero reason to go chasing down those who aren't interested.
    You could also describe it as "the levels of population immunity that dramatically increase the chance of viral mutation, while infection rates plateau at a significant level". This is a comparatively dangerous stage as it encourages complacency when the directions of travel can be "significantly better" or "significantly worse".
    Not really, with 70-80% of the population having antibodies, infection rates won't plateau at a significant level - they will drop to near zero. This being the whole meaning of herd immunity - you don't actually need everyone to be immune for a disease to pretty much die out in a population.

    I'm not sure that Covid will need over 70% antibody prevalence to prevent infections anyway - it's base R isn't all that high. Measles has a base R around 15 (i.e. at least three times that of Covid, even with the Kent variant), and is being kept pretty much suppressed (usually sub 1k cases PA in the UK, presumably with the index cases being imported) with vaccination rates in the mid 80s range.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Have we had any proper Alba polling?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    SNIP
    .
    SNIP
    Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
    It was hundreds of years ago , it is just bollox. People in this country were treated as bad by their lords and masters in those days. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against poor people of all colours. It is a good crutch for some people for sure. Lots and lots of non whites prosper in this country just same as whites and many are left behind just like whites. Too many outrage buses whining about something from hundreds of years ago.
    No I don't think it's bollox. It can be used as a crutch, sure, but I'm pretty sure that being black in this country is by and large still a disadvantage in life. As is being poor of course. No argument there. Shouldn't be an either/or contest really. Should be able to focus on reducing both class and racial inequality.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,210
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    It's not just the Russia-Ukraine border that's turning into a potential flashpoint. This just in from the A68 near Jedburgh.


    Is that a Boxer ?
    Yes. The British army will get its first examples in 2023; a mere 27 years after joining the program. World beating.
    You're assuming there isn't a further 'review'...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    Pulpstar said:

    Facebook message from my local surgery

    Today we have stated to invite patients from who qualify for a covid vaccination under Phase 2 of the national programme (patients who are aged between 18 and 49)
    Due to vaccine supplies we will be calling patients in age order starting with the oldest first. Today we have sent a text message to all patients with a mobile number recorded as their preferred method of communication and aged between 40 and 49 years

    I miss out on this by... 3 months !

    Good news though. Clearly April won't just be second doses as some have feared.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    Brom said:

    her hysterical announcements on many things are a joy to behold, with her fans hanging on her every word. Shes a left wing toby young with a phd
    She was also livid with our 12 week dose strategy which she's now gone quiet on. One wonders how she looks after her patients given how much of the day she dedicates to internetting.
    Are you saying 95% of the doctors who died from Covid were from ethnic minorities.

    95%.

    Or not?
    The number doesnt pass the smell test. It doesnt mean it is not true, but it is so extraordinary that it is either an out right lie, a distorted sample or the numbers are so low to not be statistically valid enough to draw a percentage.
    I think it a fairly accurate statistic (I recall 90%) but certainly higher than the 40% or so of British doctors pro rata. The same is true for Nurses and other HCW, I believe. I am acquainted with 3 on the BMJ wall.

    Quite why this is is debatable, probably to some degree relating to underlying conditions such as diabetes, renal disease etc. That perhaps begs the question on why such health disparities exist between communities.
  • Have we had any proper Alba polling?

    Not yet, I'm expecting to see some by the weekend though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,995

    Have we had any proper Alba polling?

    No, but I think there's a Scottish Yougov in the pipeline which should provide some clarity.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,475
    I have a friend whose daughter is called Alba. I imagine she is in profound distress over recent political developments.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This seems a more serious point on the report:

    https://twitter.com/blackpoppies14/status/1377522299570638848
    "Did they deliberately find another Stephen Bourne so they could use the name?
    Would not put it past them!"

    Those.
    Replies.

    There's one Bourne every minute.
    Indeed there is:

    The Bourne Identity [Politics]
    The Bourne [White] Supremacy
    The Bourne Legacy [of Empire]
    Jason Bourne [in the USA]
    The Bourn[e]ville chocolate factory!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Pulpstar said:

    Facebook message from my local surgery

    Today we have stated to invite patients from who qualify for a covid vaccination under Phase 2 of the national programme (patients who are aged between 18 and 49)
    Due to vaccine supplies we will be calling patients in age order starting with the oldest first. Today we have sent a text message to all patients with a mobile number recorded as their preferred method of communication and aged between 40 and 49 years

    I miss out on this by... 3 months !

    Good news though. Clearly April won't just be second doses as some have feared.
    Indeed. As a late thirty something I don't object even if almost 100% of doses now do become second doses though, even if that supposedly means I need to wait longer.

    Because it doesn't mean I need to wait longer. It's the consequence of doing twice as many first doses early on, twice as many second doses are now due. We could be ensuring 50% of doses remained first by having previously done second doses sooner, but we wouldn't now be vaccinating those in their 40s, we'd now be getting around to those in their sixties.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited April 2021

    Have we had any proper Alba polling?

    Handy Alex lives in the next village. Shall I pop round and ask if he has private polling I can share?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Nigelb said:
    That is very concerning. I didn't think Covid normally impacted so much on the young. Is this a feature of the new variants?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not one for HYUFD’s unique Scottish sub sample method of divination.
    It is not even a Holyrood poll, though of course it does not matter even if the SNP got 100% there will be no legal indyref2 allowed by this UK Tory government. 2014 was a once in a generation vote
    I think that's a bingo from me.
    Beijing is of course now removing all non pro China legislators from the Hong Kong legislature and replacing them with pro China patriots, the Scottish Nationalists should thank themselves lucky that the UK government is only refusing indyref2, not following the Chinese government and replacing all Nationalist MSPs with Unionists
    It's not just the Russia-Ukraine border that's turning into a potential flashpoint. This just in from the A68 near Jedburgh.


    Is that a Boxer ?
    Yes. The British army will get its first examples in 2023; a mere 27 years after joining the program. World beating.
    You're assuming there isn't a further 'review'...
    I have a book kicking around somewhere - "The Bradley Fighting vehicle - and how it got that way"

    It's an interesting story on how design for IFVs has worked since they were invented

    1) We need a new, lighter vehicle
    2) We need it to carry x infantrymen and their kit
    3) Plus some weapons to fight from the vehicle with
    4) Why are we considering such a big vehicle that isn't armoured like a tank?
    5) Why does the design now weigh more than a tank?
    6) We need a new, lighter vehicle....

    The author made a good case that which vehicle you end up with is a 1-6 dice roll - depending purely on which point in the circular argument someone presses "buy"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    TimT said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.

    It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
    Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
    It is interesting and not quite that simple, I fear. In the US, the Afro Caribbean and African first generation immigrants both outperform (and, to an extent, look down on) native born African Americans.

    I wonder if it has more to do with prevailing racist attitudes at the time families first arrived in the majority white country, setting up a community culture which has since persisted and that may have been helpful in that original environment, but does not work in this.

    Before there are howls of protest, I am not victim-blaming here, but trying to understand how 2nd and 3rd generation Afro Caribbeans in the UK have a different life experience to their 1st generation compatriots in the US, which is clearly not less racist than the UK.
    You won't get many howls of protest on here for perceived victim blaming in this area. You'll only get lots of that if you postulate a deep legacy of white supremacy racism from the colonial era. :smile:

    Re your specific speculation, that's interesting, and similar to what @Theuniondivvie was getting at, I think. I wouldn't know, I don't have much exposure to this in real life (to put it mildly), but that is an example of what I meant by "legacy from the shameful past".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,475
    edited April 2021
    felix said:

    MattW said:

    felix said:

    Please tell me she has nothing to do with Oxford or indeed any university anywhere.
    Cambridge also not holding its reputation well. Posting such inflammatory stuff would probably require the assistance of the aforementioned Toby Young's Free Speech Union. That poor woman who acted for Disney got fired for a clumsy holocaust comparison which was little more than a less articulate "First they came for the ........ ".

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1377578586689961986?s=20
    "Professor of Postcolonial Studies in the Faculty of English at the University of Cambridge"

    Various Twitter controversies. Attention seeker.
    This seems a more serious point on the report:

    https://twitter.com/blackpoppies14/status/1377522299570638848
    "Did they deliberately find another Stephen Bourne so they could use the name?
    Would not put it past them!"

    Those.
    Replies.

    There's one Bourne every minute.
    Indeed there is:

    The Bourne Identity [Politics]
    The Bourne [White] Supremacy
    The Bourne Legacy [of Empire]
    Jason Bourne [in the USA]
    The Bourn[e]ville chocolate factory!
    felix said:


    Jason Bourne [in the USA]

    The Bourn[e]ville chocolate factory!

    __________________________________________

    Please stop, this is getting Bournographic.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    edited April 2021
    TimT said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    There's plenty of hard data that can be used to support a conclusion that racism remains a significant issue for many people in the UK. As for lived experience, it shouldn't be treated lightly. If large numbers of people say they experience racism in their daily life, you have to take that very very seriously. Not everything can be measured and independently verified. In fact many things in society can't. And not being able to measure and independently something does not mean it isn't a problem or can't be responded to.
    Thinking about this report a little bit, the difference between outcomes for people of Afro Carribean descent and more recent African immigrants does seem important. I'm only speculating but having slavery as an integral part of you heritage and the reason you are where you are would seem likely to me to have a big effect on how you perceive society and your place in it. Also your parents and grandparents having experienced the UK when institutional and more general societal racism were definitely things must be an influence.

    It's definitely an area worth exploring; running a gormless 'the upsides of slavery' line is the absolute opposite of that though.
    Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
    It is interesting and not quite that simple, I fear. In the US, the Afro Caribbean and African first generation immigrants both outperform (and, to an extent, look down on) native born African Americans.

    I wonder if it has more to do with prevailing racist attitudes at the time families first arrived in the majority white country, setting up a community culture which has since persisted and that may have been helpful in that original environment, but does not work in this.

    Before there are howls of protest, I am not victim-blaming here, but trying to understand how 2nd and 3rd generation Afro Caribbeans in the UK have a different life experience to their 1st generation compatriots in the US, which is clearly not less racist than the UK.
    Class, education and family cohesion are clearly big factors. Kamalas father was a Jamaican, but was a postgraduate student, for example.

    Though once again we do need to look at how class, education and family breakdown are rooted in structural, and sometimes racial inequalities.

    For example, educational failure in White British communities correlates strongly with class and family breakdown too. These are intersectional issues, not ones to consider in isolation.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I have a friend whose daughter is called Alba. I imagine she is in profound distress over recent political developments.

    Profound distress?

    That's hamming it up a bit isn't it?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,397

    Charles said:

    He’s going to enjoy that. Irish and Uk inheritance tax don’t play well together
    I thought that was only if the person in question was a tax payer in Ireland? I presume that his new love of Ireland ddn't extend to paying tax to the Irish state....
    Clearly you've never seen the advantages available to artists when it comes to Irish tax. It makes Irish Corporate tax for international companies look mean...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,210
    Pfizer to file for full (as opposed to emergency) approval for its vaccine.

    https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1377580524672274435
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    I have a friend whose daughter is called Alba. I imagine she is in profound distress over recent political developments.

    She should be exceedingly happy to have such a lovely name.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,475

    I have a friend whose daughter is called Alba. I imagine she is in profound distress over recent political developments.

    Profound distress?

    That's hamming it up a bit isn't it?
    I didn't say it entirely without humour, but I don't imagine she's best pleased.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    TimT said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Middle class white guy off twitter thinking he understands race better than Tony Sewell. Not a great look.
    Problem is, many black and mixed race people also disagree with Tony Sewell. I don’t get the impression from conversations with my family and friends, as well as my social media feeds that he has credibility within black communities in this country.
    I think it is an excellent debate to have, and will get around to reading the report. That some of the single issue campaigners are getting a bit of pushback is excellent. It will help keep them honest.

    On this report it is quite noticeable that the people complaining have pivoted away from evidence to anecdotes aka "Lived Experience".
    SNIP
    .
    SNIP
    Yep, that (and similar) is definitely an important thing to look at. I absolutely get the need to not lump all minority groups together and just proclaim that our society is endemically racist and rigged against everyone who isn't white. Also, being white myself and not facing any of these issues, I don't feel right in attempting to lay the law down on this any which way. But an important point to stress (imo) is that racism can hold you back in ways other than experiencing very obvious and regular discrimination from white people here in 2021. Like you say, there is surely a legacy from the shameful past. How can there not be.
    It was hundreds of years ago , it is just bollox. People in this country were treated as bad by their lords and masters in those days. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against poor people of all colours. It is a good crutch for some people for sure. Lots and lots of non whites prosper in this country just same as whites and many are left behind just like whites. Too many outrage buses whining about something from hundreds of years ago.
    Are we talking about Scottish Nationalism now, or racial equality?
    >:)
This discussion has been closed.