Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?
Probably yes. What is RefUK for?
If you want to oppose the government but don't believe in Woke-ism perhaps...
Rump Ukip could just as easily fill that niche (and, in a prominent by-election, might very well stand a candidate. As well as the Greens and obscure northern/north-east regionalists, we could well see Ukip, the SDP, WEP, OMRLP, one or more fringe socialist candidates, several independents and goodness knows who and what else standing. The Liberal Democrats might even give it a go.)
You'd expect Ukip to poll down in the hundreds nowadays. Why would RefUK do any better? Shorn of Farage they're minor party non-entities.
Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.
Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.
I think you're being quite optimistic, Max, for multiple reasons. Intel has tried the foundry manufacturing model before and it crashed miserably. To my knowledge not a single product ever shipped.
And that was prior to Intel's recent catastrophic performance in developing actual working fab processes. 10mn was supposed to be in volume production in 2015, but they were never able to get commercially viable yields or performance from it. Only last year, with the heavily revised 10nm SuperFET process, were they able to get chips good enough to actually sell. But it's still not good enough to use for high performance designs, which is why Intel just launched new desktop chips on their ancient 14mn process that are so uncompetitive one reviewer called them "a waste of sand".
7nm is already delayed, does anyone really want to bet the future of their business on Intel actually hitting their schedule, performance and yield targets with it? I'm not seeing it, to be honest.
Pat Gelsinger coming back is a positive (Intel's only positive right now) but he's an architecture guy, and architecture isn't their problem right now. Process is. Joe Biden wants a US semiconductor manufacturing revival, but I don't think Intel is in any shape to drive one.
Any chance that somebody at some point stops to ask the question about whether vaccines actually prevent transmission before injecting millions of people for protection against a virus that is pretty much completely harmless to them?
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
You're an old hand at this BJO, I am as well but havent done any canvassing this time. Always preferred door knocking to phoning. You will know people will give any reason they can think of to not vote for a particular party. This is what your people are picking up. Having said that Johnson is dominating UK politics to such an extent that I think even Tony Blair would have had trouble matching up to him. Hopefully the tide will turn as the vaccine bounce wears off and see Johnson for what he is and start taking SKS seriously.
Does anyone know how reliant the Greek and Spanish economies usually are on British tourism? It could be a difficult year for them if the answer is very much.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
You're an old hand at this BJO, I am as well but havent done any canvassing this time. Always preferred door knocking to phoning. You will know people will give any reason they can think of to not vote for a particular party. This is what your people are picking up. Having said that Johnson is dominating UK politics to such an extent that I think even Tony Blair would have had trouble matching up to him. Hopefully the tide will turn as the vaccine bounce wears off and see Johnson for what he is and start taking SKS seriously.
Does anyone know how reliant the Greek and Spanish economies usually are on British tourism? It could be a difficult year for them if the answer is very much.
I read today, in a piece directly quoting the Greek tourism minister, that the UK is their second largest market. We are the largest market for Cyprus. I'd assume that we're also in the top two for Iberia (at a guess, number one for Portugal and number two for Spain, behind the Germans, but I wouldn't swear to it.) If the UK Government cancels sunshine holidays for the year that it's going to be very painful for them indeed.
Any chance that somebody at some point stops to ask the question about whether vaccines actually prevent transmission before injecting millions of people for protection against a virus that is pretty much completely harmless to them?
I thought we'd seen numerous studies showing that the vaccines prevented transmission?
Any chance that somebody at some point stops to ask the question about whether vaccines actually prevent transmission before injecting millions of people for protection against a virus that is pretty much completely harmless to them?
Key words missing at the end: "at the moment".
They will eventually get older, and be at risk. Anyway, we already vaccinate against German measles, which is basically harmless to children, but dangerous for pregnant women.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
May I ask where this has been happening?
Chesterfield mainly with a little bit elsewhere in Derbyshire.
As far as i am concerned I still have some optimism that Labour could regain Derbyshire CC which they lost in 2017. A 3% swing required I understand.
Chesterfield Constituency is a funny area only ever lost by Labour in the last 60 yrs twice both under Blair to the LDs so not necessarily typical
Completely undermines Taiwan's strategic importance to the US economy if US companies like Qualcomm, Apple and IBM can source high end silicon from Intel rather than rely on TSMC.
The 7nm fabs aren't a big deal, it's just ongoing investment by Intel. The scale and allowing third parties to get 7nm at the same time as Intel is a huge surprise and it's a giant turd served up to TSMC and Taiwan.
Makes strategic sense for the USA to onshore essential manufacturing though.
The Americans seem to be quite worried that China will make move on Taiwan - that might be part of their thinking
Completely undermines Taiwan's strategic importance to the US economy if US companies like Qualcomm, Apple and IBM can source high end silicon from Intel rather than rely on TSMC.
The 7nm fabs aren't a big deal, it's just ongoing investment by Intel. The scale and allowing third parties to get 7nm at the same time as Intel is a huge surprise and it's a giant turd served up to TSMC and Taiwan.
It will certainly shave their outsize margins. But Taiwan will remain strategically important for some time to come, not least in the negative sense - the US cannot allow China to acquire their technology.
At the high end, Intel’s competitors are going to think twice before putting their fate in its hands; TSMC will retain the advantage of being a pure play foundry. And until there’s a downturn, there’s probably more than sufficient demand for both companies to prosper. It might make life very hard for the second line foundries.
It’s a long overdue move, though, and good news both for Intel and western economic security
Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?
I've done a fair amount (in Surrey, may not be typical). Reactions to Starmer range from "I don't honestly know" to "He seems quite good". I've yet to find any randomly-phoned voter who thinks he's wonderful or awful (and in fairness as a Corbynite I should say I'm getting quite a few "Well, a lot better than the last one"). Responses about Johnson are much more polarised - people often really approve or really disapprove.
Overall my impression is that Labour has picked up somewhat on 2019, but apathy is rampant - most people are just not thinking about politics AT ALL. Nor are they linking the pandemic to politics - I'm not meeting people planning to vote for the Tories to thank them for the vaccines, or against them because of the early mistakes- it's all seen as a bit like an earthquake, not part of normal politics.
After pressure from the local authority, we now have 35% signed up for PVs vs 20% before, but I expect a low poll. Who will that benefit? The Tories, I'd think, because they will probably still have a higher share of the postals.
Oops. More effective than any other sort of threat to close the canal.
There's an effect when travelling next to a bank - particularly with a boxy vessel - that tends to steer the bow outwards. Anyone who has done some punting has probably seen this if they were going fast enough.
Be surprised if someone traversing Suez in one of those things fell into that hole though!
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
You're an old hand at this BJO, I am as well but havent done any canvassing this time. Always preferred door knocking to phoning. You will know people will give any reason they can think of to not vote for a particular party. This is what your people are picking up. Having said that Johnson is dominating UK politics to such an extent that I think even Tony Blair would have had trouble matching up to him. Hopefully the tide will turn as the vaccine bounce wears off and see Johnson for what he is and start taking SKS seriously.
Not convinced by that. Johnson is held in utter contempt by just as many as find him entertaining. He is not widely respected at all - unlike Thatcher who was respected even by many who despised her.
Does anyone know how reliant the Greek and Spanish economies usually are on British tourism? It could be a difficult year for them if the answer is very much.
I read today, in a piece directly quoting the Greek tourism minister, that the UK is their second largest market. We are the largest market for Cyprus. I'd assume that we're also in the top two for Iberia (at a guess, number one for Portugal and number two for Spain, behind the Germans, but I wouldn't swear to it.) If the UK Government cancels sunshine holidays for the year that it's going to be very painful for them indeed.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
No, I think Tories are good value. As well as your points, Corbynite Twitter is talking up the NIP. They won't win, but they could stop Labour doing so.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
May I ask where this has been happening?
Chesterfield mainly with a little bit elsewhere in Derbyshire.
As far as i am concerned I still have some optimism that Labour could regain Derbyshire CC which they lost in 2017. A 3% swing required I understand.
Chesterfield Constituency is a funny area only ever lost by Labour in the last 60 yrs twice both under Blair to the LDs so not necessarily typical
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
May I ask where this has been happening?
Chesterfield mainly with a little bit elsewhere in Derbyshire.
As far as i am concerned I still have some optimism that Labour could regain Derbyshire CC which they lost in 2017. A 3% swing required I understand.
Chesterfield Constituency is a funny area only ever lost by Labour in the last 60 yrs twice both under Blair to the LDs so not necessarily typical
Ok - and thanks. It was also Tony Benn's seat post-1984!
Will the by-election give a decent indication of where the opinion polls are in respect to accuracy?
IMO Hartlepool will be an interesting test of the changes SKS has made to Labour
Handpicked Candidate
No Labour LOTO has ever lost his first By Election since taking over somebody said a few days ago i think?
I am too busy trying to win back Derbyshire CC for Labour with some excellent Socialist Candidates but will be observing with interest how Labour fares nationally and in Hartlepool
Reapers don't conform to STANAG 4671 so they cannot be operated in civvie airspace. They are also based in Akrotiri so it's a bit of a long transit to get on station over Bournemouth.
MQ-9B Protector can but they aren't arriving until 2023.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
May I ask where this has been happening?
Chesterfield mainly with a little bit elsewhere in Derbyshire.
As far as i am concerned I still have some optimism that Labour could regain Derbyshire CC which they lost in 2017. A 3% swing required I understand.
Chesterfield Constituency is a funny area only ever lost by Labour in the last 60 yrs twice both under Blair to the LDs so not necessarily typical
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
May I ask where this has been happening?
Chesterfield mainly with a little bit elsewhere in Derbyshire.
As far as i am concerned I still have some optimism that Labour could regain Derbyshire CC which they lost in 2017. A 3% swing required I understand.
Chesterfield Constituency is a funny area only ever lost by Labour in the last 60 yrs twice both under Blair to the LDs so not necessarily typical
Ok - and thanks. It was also Tony Benn's seat post-1984!
Indeed only got to vote for him once as I was in NE Derbyshire before that but he is fondly remembered
Oops. More effective than any other sort of threat to close the canal.
There's an effect when travelling next to a bank - particularly with a boxy vessel - that tends to steer the bow outwards. Anyone who has done some punting has probably seen this if they were going fast enough.
Be surprised if someone traversing Suez in one of those things fell into that hole though!
How long to get this cleared ? Container shipping is in a bad state as it is.
Big question: if you're left of centre but don't like Wokery much, who do you vote for? There isn't much choice. Maybe the SDP, lead by William Clouston.
Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?
I've done a fair amount (in Surrey, may not be typical). Reactions to Starmer range from "I don't honestly know" to "He seems quite good". I've yet to find any randomly-phoned voter who thinks he's wonderful or awful (and in fairness as a Corbynite I should say I'm getting quite a few "Well, a lot better than the last one"). Responses about Johnson are much more polarised - people often really approve or really disapprove.
Overall my impression is that Labour has picked up somewhat on 2019, but apathy is rampant - most people are just not thinking about politics AT ALL. Nor are they linking the pandemic to politics - I'm not meeting people planning to vote for the Tories to thank them for the vaccines, or against them because of the early mistakes- it's all seen as a bit like an earthquake, not part of normal politics.
After pressure from the local authority, we now have 35% signed up for PVs vs 20% before, but I expect a low poll. Who will that benefit? The Tories, I'd think, because they will probably still have a higher share of the postals.
Our Canvassers have seen the return of "They're all the same" that disappeared in 2017 and 2019
Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?
I've done a fair amount (in Surrey, may not be typical). Reactions to Starmer range from "I don't honestly know" to "He seems quite good". I've yet to find any randomly-phoned voter who thinks he's wonderful or awful (and in fairness as a Corbynite I should say I'm getting quite a few "Well, a lot better than the last one"). Responses about Johnson are much more polarised - people often really approve or really disapprove.
Overall my impression is that Labour has picked up somewhat on 2019, but apathy is rampant - most people are just not thinking about politics AT ALL. Nor are they linking the pandemic to politics - I'm not meeting people planning to vote for the Tories to thank them for the vaccines, or against them because of the early mistakes- it's all seen as a bit like an earthquake, not part of normal politics.
After pressure from the local authority, we now have 35% signed up for PVs vs 20% before, but I expect a low poll. Who will that benefit? The Tories, I'd think, because they will probably still have a higher share of the postals.
Interesting - though not particularly surprising. The increase in PV applications could be significant - though it is difficult to read this in terms of who might benefit in electoral terms.Back in the days when a PV was something people had to qualify for - via a GP's signature or having a job which might require being away on polling day - the advantage very clearly lay with the Tories. Now that it has long simply become an option requiring no particular justification, I think party advantage varies from place to place depending on the strength of local party organisation etc. As far back as the Brecon & Radnor by election of July 1985, I recall that the Liberal majority turned out to be much narrower than implied by Vincent Hanna's Exit Poll - because Labour had won the Postal Vote!
Oops. More effective than any other sort of threat to close the canal.
There's an effect when travelling next to a bank - particularly with a boxy vessel - that tends to steer the bow outwards. Anyone who has done some punting has probably seen this if they were going fast enough.
Be surprised if someone traversing Suez in one of those things fell into that hole though!
How long to get this cleared ? Container shipping is in a bad state as it is.
Big question: if you're left of centre but don't like Wokery much, who do you vote for? There isn't much choice. Maybe the SDP, lead by William Clouston.
Why wouldn't you back the Tory government? Most left wing economic policies in around 50 years, and ferociously anti-woke. It's their appeal.
The European Parliament will finally grant its consent to the EU-U.K. post-Brexit trade deal at a plenary session starting April 26, Parliament President David Sassoli said Tuesday.
"We will have our plenary April 26, so this is the last date" for ratification, Sassoli said in an interview with POLITICO, adding that "there will be no extension" to this date.
Sassoli made clear on that the ratification of the deal must move forward, regardless of the U.K.'s actions, and he insisted that there would be no further delay. "I’ll tell you honestly that many times, even we struggle to understand some of the behavior on the other side of the Channel," he said, adding: "What we want is a serene development of the agreements that have been sealed."
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
You're an old hand at this BJO, I am as well but havent done any canvassing this time. Always preferred door knocking to phoning. You will know people will give any reason they can think of to not vote for a particular party. This is what your people are picking up. Having said that Johnson is dominating UK politics to such an extent that I think even Tony Blair would have had trouble matching up to him. Hopefully the tide will turn as the vaccine bounce wears off and see Johnson for what he is and start taking SKS seriously.
Not convinced by that. Johnson is held in utter contempt by just as many as find him entertaining. He is not widely respected at all - unlike Thatcher who was respected even by many who despised her.
I certainly didnt mean to say I think Johnson is respected. I suspect even his most ardent fans think of him as a bit of a clown. What I was trying to say that his presence bolstered by a fawning and complicit media is all encompassing at the moment. Hopefully that will change sooner than later. Thatcher was a different animal. Much as I despised her politics she was not a liar and cheat.
Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?
I've done a fair amount (in Surrey, may not be typical). Reactions to Starmer range from "I don't honestly know" to "He seems quite good". I've yet to find any randomly-phoned voter who thinks he's wonderful or awful (and in fairness as a Corbynite I should say I'm getting quite a few "Well, a lot better than the last one"). Responses about Johnson are much more polarised - people often really approve or really disapprove.
Overall my impression is that Labour has picked up somewhat on 2019, but apathy is rampant - most people are just not thinking about politics AT ALL. Nor are they linking the pandemic to politics - I'm not meeting people planning to vote for the Tories to thank them for the vaccines, or against them because of the early mistakes- it's all seen as a bit like an earthquake, not part of normal politics.
After pressure from the local authority, we now have 35% signed up for PVs vs 20% before, but I expect a low poll. Who will that benefit? The Tories, I'd think, because they will probably still have a higher share of the postals.
Our Canvassers have seen the return of "They're all the same" that disappeared in 2017 and 2019
That's interesting. What do you think that implies?
Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?
I've done a fair amount (in Surrey, may not be typical). Reactions to Starmer range from "I don't honestly know" to "He seems quite good". I've yet to find any randomly-phoned voter who thinks he's wonderful or awful (and in fairness as a Corbynite I should say I'm getting quite a few "Well, a lot better than the last one"). Responses about Johnson are much more polarised - people often really approve or really disapprove.
Overall my impression is that Labour has picked up somewhat on 2019, but apathy is rampant - most people are just not thinking about politics AT ALL. Nor are they linking the pandemic to politics - I'm not meeting people planning to vote for the Tories to thank them for the vaccines, or against them because of the early mistakes- it's all seen as a bit like an earthquake, not part of normal politics.
After pressure from the local authority, we now have 35% signed up for PVs vs 20% before, but I expect a low poll. Who will that benefit? The Tories, I'd think, because they will probably still have a higher share of the postals.
Our Canvassers have seen the return of "They're all the same" that disappeared in 2017 and 2019
...but what else disappeared in 2019? Labour voters! It's only 18 months on and Johnson is popular for the reasons spelled out in the header. It probably won't last and the lustre is fading as we speak, but possibly not quickly enough for Hartlepool
Starmer might not be the leader to do it, but there again he might. Corbyn was a liability in 2019 as would be RLB, Burgon or Pidcock in the future.
Keep beating up on Starmer at this stage in the game and you'll just keep on getting Johnson.
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
Our Canvassers have seen the return of "They're all the same" that disappeared in 2017 and 2019
I actually met a voter who said "They're all the same" in 2019 about Johnson and Corbyn! I said, "Honestly, what do we have to do to persuade you we're different??" She mumbled grumpily and closed the door.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
You're an old hand at this BJO, I am as well but havent done any canvassing this time. Always preferred door knocking to phoning. You will know people will give any reason they can think of to not vote for a particular party. This is what your people are picking up. Having said that Johnson is dominating UK politics to such an extent that I think even Tony Blair would have had trouble matching up to him. Hopefully the tide will turn as the vaccine bounce wears off and see Johnson for what he is and start taking SKS seriously.
Not convinced by that. Johnson is held in utter contempt by just as many as find him entertaining. He is not widely respected at all - unlike Thatcher who was respected even by many who despised her.
I certainly didnt mean to say I think Johnson is respected. I suspect even his most ardent fans think of him as a bit of a clown. What I was trying to say that his presence bolstered by a fawning and complicit media is all encompassing at the moment. Hopefully that will change sooner than later. Thatcher was a different animal. Much as I despised her politics she was not a liar and cheat.
To be fair I think the media does help quite a bit to spread the message in relation to his obvious inadequacies. The problem really is that he has so much - at least superficial - appeal to those voters who are more 'intellectually challenged'.
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
Personally I think it goes in 2024 if SKS is still leader.
Hope I am wrong but the lack of willingness of Labour members to help is another factor
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
Personally I think it goes in 2024 if SKS is still leader.
Hope I am wrong but the lack of willingness of Labour members to help is another factor
Of course , following Tony Benn's retirement the seat fell to the LDs for quite a few years. Interesting that the Tories have now supplanted them as the main alternative to Labour.
The European Parliament will finally grant its consent to the EU-U.K. post-Brexit trade deal at a plenary session starting April 26, Parliament President David Sassoli said Tuesday.
"We will have our plenary April 26, so this is the last date" for ratification, Sassoli said in an interview with POLITICO, adding that "there will be no extension" to this date.
Sassoli made clear on that the ratification of the deal must move forward, regardless of the U.K.'s actions, and he insisted that there would be no further delay. "I’ll tell you honestly that many times, even we struggle to understand some of the behavior on the other side of the Channel," he said, adding: "What we want is a serene development of the agreements that have been sealed."
bloody hell
I’ll tell you honestly that many times, even we struggle to understand some of the behavior on the other side of the Channel,"
Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?
I've done a fair amount (in Surrey, may not be typical). Reactions to Starmer range from "I don't honestly know" to "He seems quite good". I've yet to find any randomly-phoned voter who thinks he's wonderful or awful (and in fairness as a Corbynite I should say I'm getting quite a few "Well, a lot better than the last one"). Responses about Johnson are much more polarised - people often really approve or really disapprove.
Overall my impression is that Labour has picked up somewhat on 2019, but apathy is rampant - most people are just not thinking about politics AT ALL. Nor are they linking the pandemic to politics - I'm not meeting people planning to vote for the Tories to thank them for the vaccines, or against them because of the early mistakes- it's all seen as a bit like an earthquake, not part of normal politics.
After pressure from the local authority, we now have 35% signed up for PVs vs 20% before, but I expect a low poll. Who will that benefit? The Tories, I'd think, because they will probably still have a higher share of the postals.
Our Canvassers have seen the return of "They're all the same" that disappeared in 2017 and 2019
That's interesting. What do you think that implies?
I think it implies low turnout. Apathy is Labour's enemy there will be a total collapse of youth vote which is very bad news for Labour obviously.
I think there is also apathy amongst Tory voters but in our wards LD and Ind. are a big threat
Oops. More effective than any other sort of threat to close the canal.
There's an effect when travelling next to a bank - particularly with a boxy vessel - that tends to steer the bow outwards. Anyone who has done some punting has probably seen this if they were going fast enough.
Be surprised if someone traversing Suez in one of those things fell into that hole though!
How long to get this cleared ? Container shipping is in a bad state as it is.
That one apparently took about half a day to clear but it wasn't 100,000 tonnes...
I pinged a friend of ours who’s third officer on one of those huge container ships. He says this sort of thing happens in Suez about once a year. He blames the local pilots trained by the Soviets back in the day (he’s Russian himself) who refuse to retire.
Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?
I've done a fair amount (in Surrey, may not be typical). Reactions to Starmer range from "I don't honestly know" to "He seems quite good". I've yet to find any randomly-phoned voter who thinks he's wonderful or awful (and in fairness as a Corbynite I should say I'm getting quite a few "Well, a lot better than the last one"). Responses about Johnson are much more polarised - people often really approve or really disapprove.
Overall my impression is that Labour has picked up somewhat on 2019, but apathy is rampant - most people are just not thinking about politics AT ALL. Nor are they linking the pandemic to politics - I'm not meeting people planning to vote for the Tories to thank them for the vaccines, or against them because of the early mistakes- it's all seen as a bit like an earthquake, not part of normal politics.
After pressure from the local authority, we now have 35% signed up for PVs vs 20% before, but I expect a low poll. Who will that benefit? The Tories, I'd think, because they will probably still have a higher share of the postals.
Our Canvassers have seen the return of "They're all the same" that disappeared in 2017 and 2019
...but what else disappeared in 2019? Labour voters! It's only 18 months on and Johnson is popular for the reasons spelled out in the header. It probably won't last and the lustre is fading as we speak, but possibly not quickly enough for Hartlepool
Starmer might not be the leader to do it, but there again he might. Corbyn was a liability in 2019 as would be RLB, Burgon or Pidcock in the future.
Keep beating up on Starmer at this stage in the game and you'll just keep on getting Johnson.
Could not agree more. This is not normality. No hard and fast conclusions can be drawn.
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
Personally I think it goes in 2024 if SKS is still leader.
Hope I am wrong but the lack of willingness of Labour members to help is another factor
Of course , following Tony Benn's retirement the seat fell to the LDs for quite a few years. Interesting that the Tories have now supplanted them as the main alternative to Labour.
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
Personally I think it goes in 2024 if SKS is still leader.
Hope I am wrong but the lack of willingness of Labour members to help is another factor
Of course , following Tony Benn's retirement the seat fell to the LDs for quite a few years. Interesting that the Tories have now supplanted them as the main alternative to Labour.
The danger for Labour is that conservative voters think they're "acceptable" without actually voting for them whilst the left deserts them for the greens or something.
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
Personally I think it goes in 2024 if SKS is still leader.
Hope I am wrong but the lack of willingness of Labour members to help is another factor
Of course , following Tony Benn's retirement the seat fell to the LDs for quite a few years. Interesting that the Tories have now supplanted them as the main alternative to Labour.
2 terms LD One of those I voted LD
Won back in 2010 only Lab Gain in England
The one and only time I haven't voted Labour btw
HYUFD would tell you that you are not a socialist because you voted against a Labour candidate. !
Oops. More effective than any other sort of threat to close the canal.
There's an effect when travelling next to a bank - particularly with a boxy vessel - that tends to steer the bow outwards. Anyone who has done some punting has probably seen this if they were going fast enough.
Be surprised if someone traversing Suez in one of those things fell into that hole though!
How long to get this cleared ? Container shipping is in a bad state as it is.
That one apparently took about half a day to clear but it wasn't 100,000 tonnes...
I pinged a friend of ours who’s third officer on one of those huge container ships. He says this sort of thing happens in Suez about once a year. He blames the local pilots trained by the Soviets back in the day (he’s Russian himself) who refuse to retire.
A new PB law - there is always a poster only two degrees of separation from any international news incident
The danger for Labour is that conservative voters think they're "acceptable" without actually voting for them whilst the left deserts them for the greens or something.
I personally think the left won't desert for Greens in massive numbers. I think they will desert for stay at home can't be bothered. Especially young people.
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
I'd perhaps quarrel somewhat with "working class", and say it is more a mixed constituency. It is the gateway to the Peak from that side and has excellent connections to eg London via railway and motorway, plus retirees though not that many students. And it has a significant shopping centre, market, and tourist industry. The contrast with Mansfield is instructive.
An interesting comparison is position on index of deprivation. This is from a 2020 Commons Paper our of English Constituencies. It's notable that none of these are in the bottom 20%, except Mansfield (just), where the town centre is a wreck.
Reapers don't conform to STANAG 4671 so they cannot be operated in civvie airspace. They are also based in Akrotiri so it's a bit of a long transit to get on station over Bournemouth.
MQ-9B Protector can but they aren't arriving until 2023.
It is very imprecise and says very little, repeats some current self-justifying EC myths, and I would expect that there have been about 10 different versions of the "draft legislation" in the last few days.
Flying a kite.
IMO the real escalation by the EU will be if they go for article 122, which are the "wartime" provisions, and give the EU powers which are not dependent on National triggering. That is as I understand it - open to correction as ever.
I'd rather cynically say that this is somebody slightly stretching the rubber stick that has been waved around recently.
The rumbles about EU countries being unhappy about UVDL's sabre rattling are perhaps as interesting.
I think the reason Boris' poll rating is dissipating (thread header) is because people viewed vaccination as the route to freedom, which they are supposed to. If we are being vaccinated and there's no end to restrictions it renders the jab pretty pointless.
The fear mongering among certain scientists is getting silly. We vaccinate the population, we get on with life. Yes some people will still die. They do of flu. Excess deaths in the UK are now below the mean.
Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.
Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.
Its really good news for all of us....nobody can get a sodding thing at the moment because everything from PS5 to 3090s to chips for cars are all backed up with TSMC and Samsung fabs.
PS5 launch has been a total car crash for Sony, they’ve managed to deliver *dozens* of consoles to my part of the world, shops have stopped taking deposits and no-one knows with any certainty when the next batch might arrive, it’s been “a couple of weeks” since before Christmas. Must be costing billions in lost sales, at a time where demand would have been huge with so many other leisure activities restricted.
(Unless the captain of the MV Ever Given happens to be a PBer, that is.)
It’s still well and truly stuck this morning too. A 400m long container ship, fully laden with cargo, completely wedged sideways across the canal.
From the pictures, it looks like it could well be there for a few days. They might have to get a crane to it and unload cargo, in order to refloat the ship.
Presumably they’ll be doing what the police helicopter usually does, but for a lot less money.
Monitoring traffic, looking for overcrowded areas, directing ground-based resources to incidents, that sort of thing. They’re not going to be armed and ready to shoot up Bournemouth beach!
Our Canvassers have seen the return of "They're all the same" that disappeared in 2017 and 2019
I actually met a voter who said "They're all the same" in 2019 about Johnson and Corbyn! I said, "Honestly, what do we have to do to persuade you we're different??" She mumbled grumpily and closed the door.
Well, quite. I mean it’s not like you had a leader from a posh background who pretends to be a friend to ordinary people, who makes racist remarks, who is lazy, disorganised and not very bright, and is a love rat famous for spending money he hasn’t got on things he doesn’t need.
That anyone would think Labour was the same as the Tories is just amazing.
(Unless the captain of the MV Ever Given happens to be a PBer, that is.)
OK, so which PBer do you vote most likely to get a super-freighter stuck in an international waterway?
Has SeanT once of this parish found new employment since travel writing isn't really happening?
Yes, he's a renowned (by himself anyway) napper of stone-age sex toys.
However, it is just possible, that he does his best napping while on sea duty with the merchant marine.
Certainly napping on duty might explain THIS fine mess.
Can’t believe no one has fingered @Dura_Ace for this.
Sneaked out to Suez for a reunion with old shipmates, and during the celebrations he ‘persuaded’ the pilot to let him attempt to drift the vessel. It’s not as though he hasn’t confessed to similar with other vehicles.
Mr. Sandpit, I never buy consoles on launch (and may even end up going Xbox this time) but the PS5 has certainly been scalped into oblivion. I would guess the same is true of the Xbox RandomlyConfusingNumber console too.
The controller sounds fantastic although there are some suggestions of them not lasting very long.
Presumably they’ll be doing what the police helicopter usually does, but for a lot less money.
Monitoring traffic, looking for overcrowded areas, directing ground-based resources to incidents, that sort of thing. They’re not going to be armed and ready to shoot up Bournemouth beach!
Some countries have used drones to monitor lockdown enforcement....I can see it happening in UK
Presumably they’ll be doing what the police helicopter usually does, but for a lot less money.
Monitoring traffic, looking for overcrowded areas, directing ground-based resources to incidents, that sort of thing. They’re not going to be armed and ready to shoot up Bournemouth beach!
Some countries have used drones to monitor lockdown enforcement....I can see it happening in UK
I don’t see the difference between UAVs and helicopters, which have done these things for decades - except in the minds of some in the media, who want to sell a scare story about evil drones.
AIUI, the plan is for all UK domestic restrictions to be lifted three months from now. All that will remain by the end of June are rules on travel to and from plague-ridden areas of the world.
Edit: I see our resident Naval pilot has pointed out that the current military UAVs can’t fly in civvie airspace, so their areas of deployment will have to be quite tight and notified to other airmen in advance. They’ll probably stay quite high compared to a helo, they’ve got very good cameras on board!
His vaccine boost with me has dissipated a bit, because though I am grateful for the vaccines, he has now, perhaps understandably, responded to no longer being less popular than incurable warts, by acting like a bit of a wazzock again.
His opining on greed to the '22 being the latest example of this cocky behaviour - I am afraid I can just imagine him stretching his legs out and warming to his old war story of the Battle of the Vaccines to a rapturous (he thinks) crowd, and then he opens his mouth and stupidity comes out. I don't know why I'm a bit less tolerant of it than usual.
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
I'd perhaps quarrel somewhat with "working class", and say it is more a mixed constituency. It is the gateway to the Peak from that side and has excellent connections to eg London via railway and motorway, plus retirees though not that many students. And it has a significant shopping centre, market, and tourist industry. The contrast with Mansfield is instructive.
An interesting comparison is position on index of deprivation. This is from a 2020 Commons Paper our of English Constituencies. It's notable that none of these are in the bottom 20%, except Mansfield (just), where the town centre is a wreck.
Chesterfield is an interesting constituency because it's one of the few white working-class seats south of Yorkshire still in the Labour column. Their majority is dangerously low though.
I'd perhaps quarrel somewhat with "working class", and say it is more a mixed constituency. It is the gateway to the Peak from that side and has excellent connections to eg London via railway and motorway, plus retirees though not that many students. And it has a significant shopping centre, market, and tourist industry. The contrast with Mansfield is instructive.
An interesting comparison is position on index of deprivation. This is from a 2020 Commons Paper our of English Constituencies. It's notable that none of these are in the bottom 20%, except Mansfield (just), where the town centre is a wreck.
Food is getting cheaper, apparently, along with clothes and shoes. Suggestions there is discounting to encourage sales during lockdown (and also that the ONS is having to 'guess' prices where services are closed)
It's only fair to point out that the underlying numbers on leadership are all much stronger for the Tories than the headline numbers might suggest. Johnson's ratings are steadily improving. Starmer's are getting worse. And as we all know, it's these that often provide the best clue as to where things actually stand. There is little doubt that were an election to be held now the Tories would win a comfortable majority. But an election is not going to be held today.
Any chance that somebody at some point stops to ask the question about whether vaccines actually prevent transmission before injecting millions of people for protection against a virus that is pretty much completely harmless to them?
Food is getting cheaper, apparently, along with clothes and shoes. Suggestions there is discounting to encourage sales during lockdown (and also that the ONS is having to 'guess' prices where services are closed)
I would not be surprised if some food grown, caught or whatever in and around UK became cheaper fo a while, as the growers, catchers etc try to get rid of it. Once those involved realise though that UK is their only market some of them will go off and try to do something else. How much shellfish can, or will, we eat? Same with lamb.
Comments
Might be time to get the soldering iron out....
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8249206
You'd expect Ukip to poll down in the hundreds nowadays. Why would RefUK do any better? Shorn of Farage they're minor party non-entities.
https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1374480496789393412
And that was prior to Intel's recent catastrophic performance in developing actual working fab processes. 10mn was supposed to be in volume production in 2015, but they were never able to get commercially viable yields or performance from it. Only last year, with the heavily revised 10nm SuperFET process, were they able to get chips good enough to actually sell. But it's still not good enough to use for high performance designs, which is why Intel just launched new desktop chips on their ancient 14mn process that are so uncompetitive one reviewer called them "a waste of sand".
7nm is already delayed, does anyone really want to bet the future of their business on Intel actually hitting their schedule, performance and yield targets with it? I'm not seeing it, to be honest.
Pat Gelsinger coming back is a positive (Intel's only positive right now) but he's an architecture guy, and architecture isn't their problem right now. Process is. Joe Biden wants a US semiconductor manufacturing revival, but I don't think Intel is in any shape to drive one.
Having said that Johnson is dominating UK politics to such an extent that I think even Tony Blair would have had trouble matching up to him.
Hopefully the tide will turn as the vaccine bounce wears off and see Johnson for what he is and start taking SKS seriously.
They will eventually get older, and be at risk. Anyway, we already vaccinate against German measles, which is basically harmless to children, but dangerous for pregnant women.
As far as i am concerned I still have some optimism that Labour could regain Derbyshire CC which they lost in 2017. A 3% swing required I understand.
Chesterfield Constituency is a funny area only ever lost by Labour in the last 60 yrs twice both under Blair to the LDs so not necessarily typical
But Taiwan will remain strategically important for some time to come, not least in the negative sense - the US cannot allow China to acquire their technology.
At the high end, Intel’s competitors are going to think twice before putting their fate in its hands; TSMC will retain the advantage of being a pure play foundry. And until there’s a downturn, there’s probably more than sufficient demand for both companies to prosper.
It might make life very hard for the second line foundries.
It’s a long overdue move, though, and good news both for Intel and western economic security
Overall my impression is that Labour has picked up somewhat on 2019, but apathy is rampant - most people are just not thinking about politics AT ALL. Nor are they linking the pandemic to politics - I'm not meeting people planning to vote for the Tories to thank them for the vaccines, or against them because of the early mistakes- it's all seen as a bit like an earthquake, not part of normal politics.
After pressure from the local authority, we now have 35% signed up for PVs vs 20% before, but I expect a low poll. Who will that benefit? The Tories, I'd think, because they will probably still have a higher share of the postals.
There's an effect when travelling next to a bank - particularly with a boxy vessel - that tends to steer the bow outwards. Anyone who has done some punting has probably seen this if they were going fast enough.
Be surprised if someone traversing Suez in one of those things fell into that hole though!
Have Tinder closed for the pandemic or something?
Handpicked Candidate
No Labour LOTO has ever lost his first By Election since taking over somebody said a few days ago i think?
I am too busy trying to win back Derbyshire CC for Labour with some excellent Socialist Candidates but will be observing with interest how Labour fares nationally and in Hartlepool
Reapers don't conform to STANAG 4671 so they cannot be operated in civvie airspace. They are also based in Akrotiri so it's a bit of a long transit to get on station over Bournemouth.
MQ-9B Protector can but they aren't arriving until 2023.
Container shipping is in a bad state as it is.
Why? 😕
https://safety4sea.com/transport-malta-investigation-ships-grounding-linked-to-bank-effect/
That one apparently took about half a day to clear but it wasn't 100,000 tonnes...
Most left wing economic policies in around 50 years, and ferociously anti-woke.
It's their appeal.
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-parliament-will-give-its-consent-to-eu-u-k-trade-deal-in-april/
The European Parliament will finally grant its consent to the EU-U.K. post-Brexit trade deal at a plenary session starting April 26, Parliament President David Sassoli said Tuesday.
"We will have our plenary April 26, so this is the last date" for ratification, Sassoli said in an interview with POLITICO, adding that "there will be no extension" to this date.
Sassoli made clear on that the ratification of the deal must move forward, regardless of the U.K.'s actions, and he insisted that there would be no further delay. "I’ll tell you honestly that many times, even we struggle to understand some of the behavior on the other side of the Channel," he said, adding: "What we want is a serene development of the agreements that have been sealed."
Thatcher was a different animal. Much as I despised her politics she was not a liar and cheat.
Starmer might not be the leader to do it, but there again he might. Corbyn was a liability in 2019 as would be RLB, Burgon or Pidcock in the future.
Keep beating up on Starmer at this stage in the game and you'll just keep on getting Johnson.
Hope I am wrong but the lack of willingness of Labour members to help is another factor
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56496888
I’ll tell you honestly that many times, even we struggle to understand some of the behavior on the other side of the Channel,"
Right back at you Sassoli
I think there is also apathy amongst Tory voters but in our wards LD and Ind. are a big threat
This is not normality. No hard and fast conclusions can be drawn.
Won back in 2010 only Lab Gain in England
I mean...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56504546
However, it is just possible, that he does his best napping while on sea duty with the merchant marine.
Certainly napping on duty might explain THIS fine mess.
I wonder if the same people declined to take a holiday there?
Presumably real trade negotiation types have a concept parallel to De Facto / De Jure?
An interesting comparison is position on index of deprivation. This is from a 2020 Commons Paper our of English Constituencies. It's notable that none of these are in the bottom 20%, except Mansfield (just), where the town centre is a wreck.
Mansfield 117
Ashfield 139
Bolsover 179
Chesterfield 183
Matlock (Derbyshire Dales) 456
I was slightly surprised by Bolsover. Bolsover and Chesterfield are both towards the part of the ranking where blue interleaves with red.
Chesterfield is column 4 on tis chart.
https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1190732691563581441
Perhaps a suitable subject for a header?
That drone photo is not in the newspaper story.
It is very imprecise and says very little, repeats some current self-justifying EC myths, and I would expect that there have been about 10 different versions of the "draft legislation" in the last few days.
Flying a kite.
IMO the real escalation by the EU will be if they go for article 122, which are the "wartime" provisions, and give the EU powers which are not dependent on National triggering. That is as I understand it - open to correction as ever.
I'd rather cynically say that this is somebody slightly stretching the rubber stick that has been waved around recently.
The rumbles about EU countries being unhappy about UVDL's sabre rattling are perhaps as interesting.
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/eu-solidarity-breaks-down-states-complain-unfair-vaccine-distribution
The fear mongering among certain scientists is getting silly. We vaccinate the population, we get on with life. Yes some people will still die. They do of flu. Excess deaths in the UK are now below the mean.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/vaccines-should-mean-more-freedom-not-less
It's time to suck it up, folks.
From the pictures, it looks like it could well be there for a few days. They might have to get a crane to it and unload cargo, in order to refloat the ship.
Monitoring traffic, looking for overcrowded areas, directing ground-based resources to incidents, that sort of thing. They’re not going to be armed and ready to shoot up Bournemouth beach!
That anyone would think Labour was the same as the Tories is just amazing.
Sneaked out to Suez for a reunion with old shipmates, and during the celebrations he ‘persuaded’ the pilot to let him attempt to drift the vessel.
It’s not as though he hasn’t confessed to similar with other vehicles.
Mr. Sandpit, I never buy consoles on launch (and may even end up going Xbox this time) but the PS5 has certainly been scalped into oblivion. I would guess the same is true of the Xbox RandomlyConfusingNumber console too.
The controller sounds fantastic although there are some suggestions of them not lasting very long.
In a Lanc over Brussels.
AIUI, the plan is for all UK domestic restrictions to be lifted three months from now. All that will remain by the end of June are rules on travel to and from plague-ridden areas of the world.
Edit: I see our resident Naval pilot has pointed out that the current military UAVs can’t fly in civvie airspace, so their areas of deployment will have to be quite tight and notified to other airmen in advance. They’ll probably stay quite high compared to a helo, they’ve got very good cameras on board!
https://twitter.com/army1mercian/status/1374393538884956168?s=21
Chesterfield was held by the LD's for a while around 2000.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1374485862591856643?s=21
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1373948397191888898
Food is getting cheaper, apparently, along with clothes and shoes. Suggestions there is discounting to encourage sales during lockdown (and also that the ONS is having to 'guess' prices where services are closed)
He’ll have input into product strategy decisions... charitable contributions... advocate publicly on mental health...
Sounds like a sweet gig
How much shellfish can, or will, we eat? Same with lamb.