Johnson’s vaccine polling boost seems to be dissipating – politicalbetting.com

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Johnson’s vaccine polling boost seems to be dissipating – politicalbetting.com

Having hit the extraordinary polling margin on 13% at the start of the month the latest polls in the Wikipedia table the most recent published surveys have gaps nowhere nearly as large. In fact as can be seen two of the latest five surveys have it at just 2%.

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson

Test

kle4

WhisperingOracle said:

Bolsonaro is one of the worst leaders at the worst possible time. One foot in the 1970s Junta, one foot in the amazon-burning agribusiness that is harming the entire planet, and one foot in entirely superficial Trumpian culture-war politics.

That's not a third foot, it's because he's an enormous cock.

kle4

Tories have a small to moderate lead seems to be the sensible assumption. But it at least gives some hope to the non-Khan people in the locals.

BluestBlue

The wish, as they say, is father to the thought...

TheScreamingEagles

Curious and curiouser.

Sunil_Prasannan

MikeSmithson said:

Test

Pass.

No_Offence_Alan

The header says May 4th locals. It is May 6th I think.

Luckyguy1983

His vaccine boost with me has dissipated a bit, because though I am grateful for the vaccines, he has now, perhaps understandably, responded to no longer being less popular than incurable warts, by acting like a bit of a wazzock again.

His opining on greed to the '22 being the latest example of this cocky behaviour - I am afraid I can just imagine him stretching his legs out and warming to his old war story of the Battle of the Vaccines to a rapturous (he thinks) crowd, and then he opens his mouth and stupidity comes out. I don't know why I'm a bit less tolerant of it than usual.

Sunil_Prasannan

kle4 said:

Tories have a small to moderate lead seems to be the sensible assumption. But it at least gives some hope to the non-Khan people in the locals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvrI3wy_TGk

Black_Rook

Razedabode said:

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

Razedabode said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time

Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue

He keeps saying things like this:
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816

That is not the same as supporting independence

Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.

Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.

Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?

I am expecting a united Ireland too.

An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.

It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.

WhisperingOracle said:

Razedabode said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time

Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue

He keeps saying things like this:
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816

That is not the same as supporting independence

Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.

Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.

Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?

That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.

Exactly this - I wonder how we’ll coexist on this relatively small island of ours.

If the endgame is four states then we'll all be fine. It is not the fourteenth century.

Philip_Thompson

Amusing that when the 13% poll came out the line was that it was probably an outlier unless verified by other polls.

But a couple of weeks later it's the benchmark from which there's been a decline.

isam

I have heard of political analysts who think leader ratings are a better guide than VI

geoffw

"Johnson’s vaccine .. boost seems to be dissipating"
All our vaccine boosts are dissipating in the senseless looming vaccine war.

algarkirk

There is of course no such thing as a poll where you don't have to wait for the next one to say anything about it, but all the recent polls including these are within margin of error for Tory 42 Labour 36/35 and that is not true of any other Con/Lab figures you can currently cook up.

This is also true of the 13% lead poll.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1374478481690554370

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

Amusing that when the 13% poll came out the line was that it was probably an outlier unless verified by other polls.

But a couple of weeks later it's the benchmark from which there's been a decline.

Haha yes!

squareroot2

Comedy results and BMG. ... what is their history of accuracy?

Mexicanpete

isam said:

I have heard of political analysts who think leader ratings are a better guide than VI

Yawn! You'll be going on about charisma quotients next.

Brom

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

londonpubman

LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!

Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!

isam

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

I have heard of political analysts who think leader ratings are a better guide than VI

Yawn! You'll be going on about charisma quotients next.

Just trying to help you fellows out

eek

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

I think my opinion is well known - the Tories will walk this seat.

kle4

londonpubman said:

LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!

Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!

Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?

Mexicanpete

londonpubman said:

LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!

Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!

He can damn well do with Princess NutNuts' curtains, they cost us enough.

WhisperingOracle

Black_Rook said:

Razedabode said:

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

Razedabode said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time

Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue

He keeps saying things like this:
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816

That is not the same as supporting independence

Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.

Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.

Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?

I am expecting a united Ireland too.

An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.

It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.

WhisperingOracle said:

Razedabode said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time

Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue

He keeps saying things like this:
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816

That is not the same as supporting independence

Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.

Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.

Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?

That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.

Exactly this - I wonder how we’ll coexist on this relatively small island of ours.

If the endgame is four states then we'll all be fine. It is not the fourteenth century.

It would be an extraordinary end to the various Britons' collective era of greatest influence around the world, but on the other hand Brexit may always have meant that anyway.

I wonder what Marx would have made of that possibility if he was still working from his dilapidated flat in Soho. Interested excitement, I expect.

rottenborough

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

All good stuff. But the turn out will be very very low imho. Will those grumpy BXP voters bother? Or will Lab just squeak home by a hard GOTV operation?

I'm on Lab at 2.02.

rottenborough

Blimey. Actual Liberals.


https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1374444850997694468

Brom

algarkirk said:

There is of course no such thing as a poll where you don't have to wait for the next one to say anything about it, but all the recent polls including these are within margin of error for Tory 42 Labour 36/35 and that is not true of any other Con/Lab figures you can currently cook up.

This is also true of the 13% lead poll.

Agreed. 42/36 feels about right at the moment. Of course if Labour can pull closer and 39/37 polls are more frequent in the run up to the elections they can start to feel more upbeat, but equally if the EU play silly buggers it’s hard to see how the Tory vote share falls below 40%. The best thing for Labour would be Ursula and co keeping schtum for a while.

Endillion

Hmm.

When's he due for his second dose? That should push his ratings back up again.

kle4

rottenborough said:

Blimey. Actual Liberals.


https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1374444850997694468

Well it is a lot easy to be liberal about it now!

justin124

To correct the header, a 2% swing would not remove the Tory majority.Labour needs a swing of nearer 4% to achieve that - indeed a 2% pro-Labour swing would still mean a Tory lead of more than 7.5% and a majority of circa 40 seats.

HYUFD

According to Electoral Calculus today's BMG poll would give Tories 316, Labour 249, SNP 55, LDs 7, Plaid 4, Greens 1 and NI 18.

So a hung parliament and the DUP would again hold the balance of power a la 2017, though if SF took their seats there would be a centre left majority and Starmer would be PM, unlike 2017 when Tories plus DUP would have reached 327 seats combined and over the 326 threshold for an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=37&LIB=9&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=21&SCOTLAB=22&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

dixiedean

Here's my theory.
The "vaccine bounce" was people projecting an event upon which their personal nightmare would be over.
And all would be well.
Either when they are vaccinated for the oldies, or when the bloody kids are back at school for the slightly younger ones.
For most this has now happened.
And they are not magically happy.
There is no happily ever after in life I'm afraid.

Brom

rottenborough said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

All good stuff. But the turn out will be very very low imho. Will those grumpy BXP voters bother? Or will Lab just squeak home by a hard GOTV operation?

I'm on Lab at 2.02.

I agree low turnout is Labour’s friend. The 2004 Hartlepool by election turnout of 46% was weak but not disastrously low and perhaps a good pointer. The great unknown is will the vaccinated oldies go out and vote or will they stay indoors. I’d expect postal voting to be a higher proportion this time round and that possibly benefits the Blues. But a lot of guessing.

rpjs

No matter how bad your day may have been today, at least you didn’t block the entire Suez Canal with your ship
https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374438210315513864

(Unless the captain of the MV Ever Given happens to be a PBer, that is.)

Foxy

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

No, I think Tories are good value. As well as your points, Corbynite Twitter is talking up the NIP. They won't win, but they could stop Labour doing so.

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1374412155001266183?s=19

justin124

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

Pulpstar

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

In contrast to many on here, I have backed the Tories in Hartlepool. It had an almost unique set of circumstance in 2019 to allow Labour to hang on. The only other not disimilar constituency was Barnsley East but that had stronger Labour shares through the 2010s, and a far lower profile BXP candidate.

All GEs in the 2010s

Barnsley East 47 / 54.7 / 59.5 / 37.6
Hartlepool 42.5 / 35.6 / 52.5 / 37.7

IanB2

rpjs said:

No matter how bad your day may have been today, at least you didn’t block the entire Suez Canal with your ship
https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374438210315513864

(Unless the captain of the MV Ever Given happens to be a PBer, that is.)

That could be a more credible backstory for Sean’s next account than anything he’s managed to come up with....

Brom

dixiedean said:

Here's my theory.
The "vaccine bounce" was people projecting an event upon which their personal nightmare would be over.
And all would be well.
Either when they are vaccinated for the oldies, or when the bloody kids are back at school for the slightly younger ones.
For most this has now happened.
And they are not magically happy.
There is no happily ever after in life I'm afraid.

I believe the vaccine bounce is a real thing, not as a silver bullet to all our woes but paired against a backdrop of lockdown and vaccine chaos in other countries it will stir a bit of patriotism and a feeling that our normal is a little bit more enjoyable than normal elsewhere. But when Europe does get its shit together, perhaps in 2 or 3 months time our advantages will disappear and the success of our rollout will no longer be something Boris can fall back on.

LostPassword

The LOESS smooth of the opinion poll results on the Wikipedia page does not agree with this analysis. Last updated yesterday it shows a steady increase in the Tory lead from nearly nothing at the start of the year that has continued through March to a present value of about 7.5. Roughly 4 million first doses of the vaccine per percentage point lead.

At that rate the lead could end up at 13 by the time we're all injected the first time round.

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg

Foxy

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!

Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!

Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?

Mostly the latter, I believe...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9280195/Somebody-shoot-f-ing-dog-Boris-Johnson-growled-Dilyn-gnawed-antiques-Chequers.html

IanB2

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!

Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!

Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?

Mostly the latter, I believe...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9280195/Somebody-shoot-f-ing-dog-Boris-Johnson-growled-Dilyn-gnawed-antiques-Chequers.html

They can’t even house train a dog?

Pulpstar

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

justin124

I am going to row back on my earlier comment re- the header. I assume a mistype occurred in that Mike intended to say '2% Con lead'. That would indeed be an anti-Tory swing of 4.8% compared with 2019 ,and on a UNS basis would produce a Hung Parliament.

Bournville

I understand the hostile environment is about to get even more hostile - Patel is announcing a crackdown on asylum claims from people who have travelled from a "safe" country tomorrow.

Brom

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

Lol what?

Foxy

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!

Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!

Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?

Mostly the latter, I believe...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9280195/Somebody-shoot-f-ing-dog-Boris-Johnson-growled-Dilyn-gnawed-antiques-Chequers.html

They can’t even house train a dog?

Dilyn was only ever a photo opportunity. A man who neglects his children is never going to look after a dog well.

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

Bonkers. Our masters have totally lost the plot.

There is little if any transmission outdoors. One of the Asian countries (SK?) tracked the contacts of their cases and iirc found not a single case of outdoor transmission.

I imagine a breezy beach would turn out to be covid's worst environment for transmission.

justin124

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Sunil_Prasannan

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

"He will make an excellent drone!"

dixiedean

Brom said:

dixiedean said:

Here's my theory.
The "vaccine bounce" was people projecting an event upon which their personal nightmare would be over.
And all would be well.
Either when they are vaccinated for the oldies, or when the bloody kids are back at school for the slightly younger ones.
For most this has now happened.
And they are not magically happy.
There is no happily ever after in life I'm afraid.

I believe the vaccine bounce is a real thing, not as a silver bullet to all our woes but paired against a backdrop of lockdown and vaccine chaos in other countries it will stir a bit of patriotism and a feeling that our normal is a little bit more enjoyable than normal elsewhere. But when Europe does get its shit together, perhaps in 2 or 3 months time our advantages will disappear and the success of our rollout will no longer be something Boris can fall back on.

Yes. I think we are agreeing over slightly different time scales.
One unknown is whether this "normal" will be quite so enjoyable as folk currently think it will be?
Will it be a nirvana?
Or will folk discover that pretty damn soon it brings the usual strife albeit of a different kind?

MarqueeMark

A massive poll takes place in 6 weeks. We'll know the true state of the parties then.

Mexicanpete

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!

Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!

Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?

Mostly the latter, I believe...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9280195/Somebody-shoot-f-ing-dog-Boris-Johnson-growled-Dilyn-gnawed-antiques-Chequers.html

They can’t even house train a dog?

They seem like the Airbnb guests from hell.

Mexicanpete

Bournville said:

I understand the hostile environment is about to get even more hostile - Patel is announcing a crackdown on asylum claims from people who have travelled from a "safe" country tomorrow.

Red meat for the red wall.

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

In contrast to many on here, I have backed the Tories in Hartlepool. It had an almost unique set of circumstance in 2019 to allow Labour to hang on. The only other not disimilar constituency was Barnsley East but that had stronger Labour shares through the 2010s, and a far lower profile BXP candidate.

All GEs in the 2010s

Barnsley East 47 / 54.7 / 59.5 / 37.6
Hartlepool 42.5 / 35.6 / 52.5 / 37.7

One thing is for sure, this is likely to be a bit of nail biter.

Is it a night time count?

MaxPB

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

Black_Rook

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.

It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.

LostPassword

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

Bonkers. Our masters have totally lost the plot.

There is little if any transmission outdoors. One of the Asian countries (SK?) tracked the contacts of their cases and iirc found not a single case of outdoor transmission.

I imagine a breezy beach would turn out to be covid's worst environment for transmission.

We should be encouraging people to spend as much time outside as possible. If it weren't for the fact that hopefully everyone will have had a first injection by the summer, it would be positively harmful to send everyone inside.

Brom

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

Go on.....

Oh just seen it, two massive fabs to be built in Arizona to make 7nm chips for 2023 launch....i might just have my 3090 delivered by then!

solarflare

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

There's your incentive for not going on your foreign holiday?

Mexicanpete

MarqueeMark said:

A massive poll takes place in 6 weeks. We'll know the true state of the parties then.

Steady on.

On that extrapolation you'll have the LDs claiming they are preparing for Government..

justin124

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/BeebJournalist/status/1374486835733221383

MaxPB

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

Go on.....

Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.

Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.

FrancisUrquhart

Black_Rook said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.

It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.

If the government aren't going to allow foreign holidays, the quid pro quo has to be fairly free to do what we want in the UK. That is how Australia and NZ manage to continue their prison island existance.

bigjohnowls

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

Have you been doing any phone canvassing?

SKS very unpopular too apparently

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/AEHALL1983/status/1374488821887201283?s=20

Nigelb

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

Using drones to ‘reduce the numbers’ seems overly draconian...

Though given this government’s proclivities, you might expect then to use Spitfires to strafe the beaches, instead.

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

Go on.....

Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.

Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.

Its really good news for all of us....nobody can get a sodding thing at the moment because everything from PS5 to 3090s to chips for cars are all backed up with TSMC and Samsung fabs.

eek

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

Go on.....

Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.

Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.

I will believe it, if and when those fabs start producing chips.

justin124

bigjohnowls said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

Have you been doing any phone canvassing?

SKS very unpopular too apparently

Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?

Foxy

bigjohnowls said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

Have you been doing any phone canvassing?

SKS very unpopular too apparently

There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm. Corbyn was marmite, Starmer is margarine.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1374491780788277250?s=20

MaxPB

eek said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

Go on.....

Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.

Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.

I will believe it, if and when those fabs start producing chips.

Pat Gelsinger is back in charge of Intel, he turned Intel into what it is today. I've got no doubt that by the time we get to 2023 Intel's engineering and design will be back on track and very competitive with the AMD/TSMC combination.

Sunil_Prasannan

bigjohnowls said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

Have you been doing any phone canvassing?

SKS very unpopular too apparently

Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...

Foxy

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

Using drones to ‘reduce the numbers’ seems overly draconian...

Though given this government’s proclivities, you might expect then to use Spitfires to strafe the beaches, instead.

Well, we are prepared to nuke Internet trolls...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/16/defence-review-uk-could-use-trident-to-counter-cyber-attack

kle4

Foxy said:

bigjohnowls said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

Have you been doing any phone canvassing?

SKS very unpopular too apparently

There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm. Cobyn was marmite, Starmer is margarine.

Ubiquitous and suitable with nearly every other topping?

Andy_JS

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?

Black_Rook

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.

It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.

If the government aren't going to allow foreign holidays, the quid pro quo has to be fairly free to do what we want in the UK. That is how Australia and NZ manage to continue their prison island existance.

I've followed the link trail back to the i newspaper piece. It mentioned "Covid marshals," but the emphasis seems not to be on the disease but on traffic management, which is rather more understandable.

Kurt Janson from the Tourism Alliance, which represents tourism businesses, said: “We’re hoping better plans will be in place this time because when we do open self-catering on 12 April there are also likely to be large numbers of day trippers, so plans need to be in place to make sure there is no impact to local communities.”

Mr Janson said tourism and council bodies could consider funnelling day trippers to less busy areas or beaches by using phone apps, or through better traffic management. Other plans could include only allowing visitors who have booked accommodation in the area.

“It isn’t about telling people to stay away,” Mr Janson said. “It’s very difficult to stop people travelling at all. It’s about managing where people do go.

That sounds less like yet more Plague-related nannying and more like not ending up with about three million people in the same place at the same time, which is arguably justified and perhaps even necessary. You have half the population of Birmingham trying to go to Bournemouth on the same day and they'll end up leaving tonnes of litter, piss and shit everywhere because the bins and the loos will be wholly insufficient to cope, and people will die of heat stroke or suffocation on the trains going there and back.

Hopefully we will therefore be spared bossy boots pestering in areas that aren't stuffed to the gunwales.

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

A bit of an exaggeration.

Black_Rook

Andy_JS said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?

Probably yes. What is RefUK for?

Foxy

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.

It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.

If the government aren't going to allow foreign holidays, the quid pro quo has to be fairly free to do what we want in the UK. That is how Australia and NZ manage to continue their prison island existance.

Indeed, let the youngsters go to music festivals to let off some steam and party the nights away.

bigjohnowls

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bigjohnowls said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

Have you been doing any phone canvassing?

SKS very unpopular too apparently

Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...

Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement

Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told

Andy_JS

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

No. We don't want to live in this sort of society.

Andy_JS

Black_Rook said:

Andy_JS said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?

Probably yes. What is RefUK for?

If you want to oppose the government but don't believe in Woke-ism perhaps...

Roger

About time we had a new Gold Standard pollster. Arise BMG

londonpubman

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.

It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.

If the government aren't going to allow foreign holidays, the quid pro quo has to be fairly free to do what we want in the UK. That is how Australia and NZ manage to continue their prison island existance.

Indeed, let the youngsters go to music festivals to let off some steam and party the nights away.

I think this is the direction of travel.

Allow the domestic reopening as scheduled including 21 June virtual total unlocking - but no foreign travel unless essential at least until early next year.

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

A bit of an exaggeration.

Completely undermines Taiwan's strategic importance to the US economy if US companies like Qualcomm, Apple and IBM can source high end silicon from Intel rather than rely on TSMC.

The 7nm fabs aren't a big deal, it's just ongoing investment by Intel. The scale and allowing third parties to get 7nm at the same time as Intel is a huge surprise and it's a giant turd served up to TSMC and Taiwan.

bigjohnowls

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

I thought he was the ultra remain, pro Saudi progressive democracy, pro Tory MILF Candidate

Andy_JS

Prince Harry's new job is to be Chief Impact Officer with a company called BetterUp.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56500298

Roger

Anyone got any details about Johnson's foot -in-his mouth that Laura K was going on about? Accusing Astra Zen of being highway robbers?

kle4

bigjohnowls said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

I thought he was the ultra remain, pro Saudi progressive democracy, pro Tory MILF Candidate

He can be more than one thing.

Andy_JS said:

Black_Rook said:

Andy_JS said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?

Probably yes. What is RefUK for?

If you want to oppose the government but don't believe in Woke-ism perhaps...

I'd call that fishing in a small pool.

Andy_JS said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483

Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !

No. We don't want to live in this sort of society.

Drones do help with the live part of that.

Cookie

Black_Rook said:

Mexicanpete said:

Razedabode said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time

Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue

He keeps saying things like this:
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816

That is not the same as supporting independence

Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.

Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.

Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?

I am expecting a united Ireland too.

An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.

It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.

WhisperingOracle said:

Razedabode said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time

Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue

He keeps saying things like this:
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816

That is not the same as supporting independence

Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.

Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.

Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?

That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.

Exactly this - I wonder how we’ll coexist on this relatively small island of ours.


Point of order: Great Britain is not a 'relatively small island'. It is the 8th biggest island in the world.

If you meant 'relatively small area of the earth' s surface' - which I'm sure wad the general meaning - then fair enough.

Foxy

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.

A bit of an exaggeration.

Completely undermines Taiwan's strategic importance to the US economy if US companies like Qualcomm, Apple and IBM can source high end silicon from Intel rather than rely on TSMC.

The 7nm fabs aren't a big deal, it's just ongoing investment by Intel. The scale and allowing third parties to get 7nm at the same time as Intel is a huge surprise and it's a giant turd served up to TSMC and Taiwan.

Makes strategic sense for the USA to onshore essential manufacturing though.

CorrectHorseBattery

Will the by-election give a decent indication of where the opinion polls are in respect to accuracy?

justin124

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bigjohnowls said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

Have you been doing any phone canvassing?

SKS very unpopular too apparently

Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...

Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement

Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bigjohnowls said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

Brom said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.

A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.

I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.

This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.

Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .

That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.

There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.

But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.

Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.

Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.

Have you been doing any phone canvassing?

SKS very unpopular too apparently

Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...

Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvement

Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told

May I ask where this has been happening?

Andy_JS

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Will the by-election give a decent indication of where the opinion polls are in respect to accuracy?

No, local factors will be more important than national trends.