Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
Comments
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The US to be swimming in vaccines within 2 months - 500m vaccines on the way:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/0 -
I would need to be shot , chopped up and put in a bag before I would watch those two complete arses.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Am I the only one who watched Piers Morgan and Susannah Reid's interview of Thomas Markle on GMB this morning?FrancisUrquhart said:
And all his baggage, he somehow manages never to get cancelled for long, popping up again in another top quality position. Mirror, sacked, CNN sacked, oh look he is back again with GMB.kle4 said:
I've said before I have a weird respect for Piers Morgan. I've been aware of him as a person for nearly 20 years and in all that time it seems as though everyone hates him, yet he's managed to have what appears to be a successful and diverse career in that time.kinabalu said:
It won't bring him down. He'll be loving it. There are 4 little words that he values above all else. That he lives and breathes for. That keep his pecker pointing skywards and the moolah pouring into his groaning bank account.felix said:
It would be amusing if this issue brought him down. I'm unclear if there'll be much sympathy for him regardless of views on MM.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear, I see Piers Moron, so popular with the twitterati over the past year, not so popular now. Now calling for his sacking, and an online petition of course.
"Piers Morgan is trending."2 -
Bloody hell
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1369334678574993409
87 positives out of nowhere on the Isle of Man.0 -
Whitty and Vallance made a point of saying explicitly, at the briefing with the unlockdown plan, that they would expect an increase in cases when the schools go back and that alone would not cause a delay.rottenborough said:And so it begins.
How many days before we are being told the roadmap is on hold due to a spike in cases?
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/13693018553486663760 -
Some of them do! Amazing to think that the top male marathon runners average a mile about every four and a half minutes. That's absolutely mind-blowing to me.kle4 said:
I love the marathon/sprint analogy, used to claim going faster is a bad thing essentially (until they have gone faster). People still run fast in a marathon, in fact they go as fast as they possibly can. If they could physically sprint a marathon they would.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Possibly not, but they've got a lot of debauchery to catch up on.Philip_Thompson said:And going back in dribs and drabs while pubs are closed won't have the debauchery associated with Freshers Week.
3 -
Exactly. It joins the flu. There's a touch of paranoia around imo. Perhaps understandably given the strange experience we're living through. It's affecting us all in different ways. Certainly is me. I've forgotten many of the social niceties. Feeling a bit "wild".Cookie said:I'm a lockdown sceptic, and I didn't really find much to complain about in what Chris Whitty said. It was pretty factual - 'the modelling shows another surge' etc. Now we might disbelieve the modelling, but he wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't report what it was saying.
And I wouldn't expect deaths to go down to zero. The point is to see deaths in the right context.0 -
Should have been long ago. Given they had to order a search of the civil service documents as they had not been handing over the evidence, she had to be recalled after forgetting meetings under oath , so she could admit she now remembered them and yet still could not recall the content etc.Floater said:
Well, she would say that or it would stink even more. ( I keep notes on all meetings other than those ........ )malcolmg said:
One wonders , got a new contract and pay rise as well after it , does make you wonder.Floater said:
How is Evans still in a job?malcolmg said:This is lucky is it not...........
Records of meetings between Nicola Sturgeon, permanent secretary Leslie Evans and the Scottish Government’s legal counsel about the investigation into Alex Salmond cannot be found, John Swinney has confirmed. https://bit.ly/2N6wz20
PS: Last week she said she always shreds her notebooks on a very regular basis as well.
But someone who does not minute meetings that really need to be minuted should surely be for the bin?1 -
Very similar to Guernsey at the end of January - and like Guernsey prompt lockdown. Guernsey now has 4 cases and no new cases for 10 days.Pulpstar said:Bloody hell
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1369334678574993409
87 positives out of nowhere on the Isle of Man.0 -
Oh indeed. I was speaking equivalently - it's faster than many people sprint, but for them they could still, over short periods (like right at the end) go faster than through most of the race.Anabobazina said:
Some of them do! Amazing to think that the top male marathon runners average a mile about every four and a half minutes. That's absolutely mind-blowing to me.kle4 said:
I love the marathon/sprint analogy, used to claim going faster is a bad thing essentially (until they have gone faster). People still run fast in a marathon, in fact they go as fast as they possibly can. If they could physically sprint a marathon they would.CarlottaVance said:
That people speed up at the end of a marathon/10000m whatever is pretty mindblowing. I know why 100m is more of a spectacle, but it doesn't wow like the long distance guys for me.1 -
I presume it is totally coincidental that he basically doesn't talk to his dad at all now.Pulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !
If it was him, it would be quite surprising it was said an intentionally racist way, unlike some Royals.
As Charles has always made a big thing of his much more modern outlook e.g. all the eco stuff, and then after that long running Guardian legal battle, we got what he privately writes to the government and it was all stuff like demanding answers over what they intend to do about to help protect the lesser spotted newt that plays an important role in some Amazonian tribe continued existence.
I think even the Guardian were embarrassed about how "right on" some of the stuff was.0 -
Unfortunately for us, this pinnacle of proctanthropy always seems to be positioned directly overhead...dixiedean said:
Precisely. He's an arsehole without a clear ideology. Enabling him to bestride the gulf of professional arseholery like a Colossus. With both left and right able to point and shout "What a massive arsehole!" in unison. Whilst occasionally thinking sometimes he has a grain of a point. (Despite being an arsehole).kle4 said:
Because it's not enough to simply be hated. Lots of people are hated, but they cannot sustain a career in the mainstream from it, while he's worked in news and entertainment and managed to carve out that niche. Any number of far right or far left figures could be pointed to who are hated, but not mainstream successful.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But he's built a successful career precisely BECAUSE everyone (or a lot of people) hate him. A lot of people find being angered, and seeing others angered, as entertaining. So it's a career path, certainly. Not sure why anyone should respect it, though, weirdly or otherwise.kle4 said:
I've said before I have a weird respect for Piers Morgan. I've been aware of him as a person for nearly 20 years and in all that time it seems as though everyone hates him, yet he's managed to have what appears to be a successful and diverse career in that time.kinabalu said:
It won't bring him down. He'll be loving it. There are 4 little words that he values above all else. That he lives and breathes for. That keep his pecker pointing skywards and the moolah pouring into his groaning bank account.felix said:
It would be amusing if this issue brought him down. I'm unclear if there'll be much sympathy for him regardless of views on MM.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear, I see Piers Moron, so popular with the twitterati over the past year, not so popular now. Now calling for his sacking, and an online petition of course.
"Piers Morgan is trending."
His professional persona is that of an arsehole, and it's not unreasonable to assume it's because he is also an arsehole generally. But he obviously manages, professionally, to stay on the right side of the line to keep being employed whereas, say, someone like Laurence Fox seems like he wants to go down that route but is too much an arsehole.
Clever positioning.1 -
Might explain why he wasn't returning Harry's phone calls, if they'd fallen out over him being called racist.Pulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !0 -
I try not to get offended by crass metaphors - open that door and it tirns out a lot of people will be guily - so it has to be a high bar.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I'd happily be shot, chopped up, and put in a bag if you found me watching them.malcolmg said:
I would need to be shot , chopped up and put in a bag before I would watch those two complete arses.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Am I the only one who watched Piers Morgan and Susannah Reid's interview of Thomas Markle on GMB this morning?FrancisUrquhart said:
And all his baggage, he somehow manages never to get cancelled for long, popping up again in another top quality position. Mirror, sacked, CNN sacked, oh look he is back again with GMB.kle4 said:
I've said before I have a weird respect for Piers Morgan. I've been aware of him as a person for nearly 20 years and in all that time it seems as though everyone hates him, yet he's managed to have what appears to be a successful and diverse career in that time.kinabalu said:
It won't bring him down. He'll be loving it. There are 4 little words that he values above all else. That he lives and breathes for. That keep his pecker pointing skywards and the moolah pouring into his groaning bank account.felix said:
It would be amusing if this issue brought him down. I'm unclear if there'll be much sympathy for him regardless of views on MM.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear, I see Piers Moron, so popular with the twitterati over the past year, not so popular now. Now calling for his sacking, and an online petition of course.
"Piers Morgan is trending."2 -
Definitely progress. We can agree on that.Philip_Thompson said:
OK so what she's complaining about is only if the test is done at school - and the schools are doing the tests this week, then they go to home tests and the new rule applies?rottenborough said:
No. The policy for a PCR is only called for if the lateral test was done at home, not by the school.Philip_Thompson said:
Why is she blaming the government for this and not the school, given the DfE's line is that the PCR test trumps the LTF if its negative? 😕rottenborough said:And so it begins.
How many days before we are being told the roadmap is on hold due to a spike in cases?
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1369301855348666376
Oh actually look who the Tweet comes from. Nevermind. 🙄
"What happens if a test is positive?
If anyone’s test is positive, they should immediately start isolating in line with public health guidance. Members of their household should also start isolating.
Where a pupil’s test has been taken on site under supervision, the chance of it being incorrect is minimal so there is no need for a further test to confirm the result.
All pupils, staff, and their households who take their tests at home should report the results by calling 119 or through the online form."
If taken correctly, there is a very small chance of a home test being wrong but there is a slightly higher chance of it being administered incorrectly. As such, if a pupil, member of staff or a member of their household gets a positive result at home they should report the result and arrange to have a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test by following this link.
In the event that the PCR test is negative – that they do not have Covid 19 – this overrides the lateral flow test if it was taken at home and they should therefore return to school."
https://dfemedia.blog.gov.uk/2021/03/09/covid-testing-in-schools-who-will-get-tested-how-and-where-will-they-be-tested-who-has-to-isolate-after-a-positive-test-these-questions-and-more-answered/
Sounds irritating but still better to have most kids at school even if a few stay at home. Its progress.0 -
UK cases by specimen date
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Europe aren't treating vaccination like a marathon, either. More like dressage.kle4 said:
Oh indeed. I was speaking equivalently - it's faster than many people sprint, but for them they could still, over short periods (like right at the end) go faster than through most of the race.Anabobazina said:
Some of them do! Amazing to think that the top male marathon runners average a mile about every four and a half minutes. That's absolutely mind-blowing to me.kle4 said:
I love the marathon/sprint analogy, used to claim going faster is a bad thing essentially (until they have gone faster). People still run fast in a marathon, in fact they go as fast as they possibly can. If they could physically sprint a marathon they would.CarlottaVance said:
That people speed up at the end of a marathon/10000m whatever is pretty mindblowing. I know why 100m is more of a spectacle, but it doesn't wow like the long distance guys for me.7 -
UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population
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UK Local R
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Given the similarities between the poor way Meghan has been treated and the poor way Diana was, there would be a certain poetry if Charles were at fault for both.FrancisUrquhart said:
I presume it is totally coincidental that he basically doesn't talk to his dad at all now.Pulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !
If it was him, it would be quite surprising it was said an intentionally racist way, unlike some Royals.
As Charles has always made a big thing of his much more modern outlook e.g. all the eco stuff, and then after that long running Guardian legal battle, we got what he privately writes to the government and it was all stuff like demanding answers over what they intend to do about to help protect the lesser spotted newt that plays an important some Amazonian tribe continued existence.
And he's meant to be our future King "long to rule over us" 😕0 -
RedfieldWilton was done on the 8th MarchFrankBooth said:The poll was done immediately after the budget. Nothing more to say.
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The way the picture's are framed on the home page William and Kate are on the right and left hand sides with Charles and Camilla in the center and Camilla IN FRONT of CharlesPulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !
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UK case summary
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UK Hospitals
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It's the 'We're really stupid' defence, last refuge of many a political figure.CarlottaVance said:
It can be true, many people act very stupidly, but you don't admit to being really bad at your jobs like that if you have any other defence available.1 -
John Swinney to face a no confidence vote tomorrow1
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UK deaths
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LOL. A typical Grand Prix dressage test takes around 6 minutes to complete. It just seems like an eternity to anyone who does not ride dressage.Alphabet_Soup said:
Europe aren't treating vaccination like a marathon, either. More like dressage.kle4 said:
Oh indeed. I was speaking equivalently - it's faster than many people sprint, but for them they could still, over short periods (like right at the end) go faster than through most of the race.Anabobazina said:
Some of them do! Amazing to think that the top male marathon runners average a mile about every four and a half minutes. That's absolutely mind-blowing to me.kle4 said:
I love the marathon/sprint analogy, used to claim going faster is a bad thing essentially (until they have gone faster). People still run fast in a marathon, in fact they go as fast as they possibly can. If they could physically sprint a marathon they would.CarlottaVance said:
That people speed up at the end of a marathon/10000m whatever is pretty mindblowing. I know why 100m is more of a spectacle, but it doesn't wow like the long distance guys for me.1 -
UK R
from case data
from hospital admissions data
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Age related data
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Age related data scaled too 100k population per age group
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BBC
41,000 complaints to Ofcom re Piers Morgan comments today0 -
UK vaccinations
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That is higher than I'd have guessed, yes. But I'm not sure about your 80/20 to do a Bobby and wake up in the shower. I'd put it at 40/60. That 40 being so close to 39 as to perhaps be the same people. People like you. People like me. Good people.Stark_Dawning said:
39% is actually an amazingly high number for re-join, considering we'd be re-joining on massively worse terms, from our standpoint, than those we had when we left. And never mind the years of grinding and divisive negotiation required. I'd like to see a poll on how many people would like to magically wish Brexit away - no regrets, no surrender, no blame, no guilt, no recriminations. It just never happened. I reckon it would be 80-20 in favour of Remain.kinabalu said:
Yes, and there were many like you. Leavers, really, but too wussy to vote for it. This is why 52/48 does not sum up the result. It wasn't, in truth, that close. The true mood of the nation was clear Leave. It was a mood landslide.Alphabet_Soup said:
A lot of timid folk, such as myself, voted for the status quo in 2016. It stands to reason, therefore, that we would now tend to vote to stay out, rather than repeating the tortuous negotiations of the past 4 years. On the other hand, a few of those who voted Leave are lifelong radicals always on the lookout for something to change. It's hard to see how rejoining the EU would satisfy their craving.Floater said:OOps
https://order-order.com/2021/03/09/no-bregrets-just-39-of-brits-want-to-re-join-the-eu/
Another slow hand clap for the EU
0 -
I am surprised by that - having been impressed by her Covid interviews.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I fully expect the timetable to be stuck to. My point earlier was that everyone has their red lines and one person's "Surely they will open up earlier given the stats" is another's "Best to wait a few more months to be sure". Both scenarios should be in anyone's analysis.kinabalu said:
Exactly. It joins the flu. There's a touch of paranoia around imo. Perhaps understandably given the strange experience we're living through. It's affecting us all in different ways. Certainly is me. I've forgotten many of the social niceties. Feeling a bit "wild".Cookie said:I'm a lockdown sceptic, and I didn't really find much to complain about in what Chris Whitty said. It was pretty factual - 'the modelling shows another surge' etc. Now we might disbelieve the modelling, but he wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't report what it was saying.
And I wouldn't expect deaths to go down to zero. The point is to see deaths in the right context.
I give extension as no more than a 15-1 shot and I'll have a fiver with you on it as you kindly offered.0 -
Is that up or down on the usual?Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC
41,000 complaints to Ofcom re Piers Morgan comments today1 -
Breaking
Buckingham Palace saddened to learn the full extent of how challenging the last few years have been for Harry and Megan0 -
I'm more concerned that a building has become sentient enough to express emotion.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking
Buckingham Palace saddened to learn the full extent of how challenging the last few years have been for Harry and Megan4 -
One year at Burghley a friend and I finally found somewhere nice and quiet to sit and chat and were happily doing so for some time before we noticed the looks of death from those around us. At which point we realised that we had inadvertently wandered into the dressage arena.TimT said:
LOL. A typical Grand Prix dressage test takes around 6 minutes to complete. It just seems like an eternity to anyone who does not ride dressage.Alphabet_Soup said:
Europe aren't treating vaccination like a marathon, either. More like dressage.kle4 said:
Oh indeed. I was speaking equivalently - it's faster than many people sprint, but for them they could still, over short periods (like right at the end) go faster than through most of the race.Anabobazina said:
Some of them do! Amazing to think that the top male marathon runners average a mile about every four and a half minutes. That's absolutely mind-blowing to me.kle4 said:
I love the marathon/sprint analogy, used to claim going faster is a bad thing essentially (until they have gone faster). People still run fast in a marathon, in fact they go as fast as they possibly can. If they could physically sprint a marathon they would.CarlottaVance said:
That people speed up at the end of a marathon/10000m whatever is pretty mindblowing. I know why 100m is more of a spectacle, but it doesn't wow like the long distance guys for me.3 -
That's spot on. The notion of him running as a populist politician is not ludicrous.dixiedean said:
Precisely. He's an arsehole without a clear ideology. Enabling him to bestride the gulf of professional arseholery like a Colossus. With both left and right able to point and shout "What a massive arsehole!" in unison. Whilst occasionally thinking sometimes he has a grain of a point. (Despite being an arsehole).kle4 said:
Because it's not enough to simply be hated. Lots of people are hated, but they cannot sustain a career in the mainstream from it, while he's worked in news and entertainment and managed to carve out that niche. Any number of far right or far left figures could be pointed to who are hated, but not mainstream successful.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But he's built a successful career precisely BECAUSE everyone (or a lot of people) hate him. A lot of people find being angered, and seeing others angered, as entertaining. So it's a career path, certainly. Not sure why anyone should respect it, though, weirdly or otherwise.kle4 said:
I've said before I have a weird respect for Piers Morgan. I've been aware of him as a person for nearly 20 years and in all that time it seems as though everyone hates him, yet he's managed to have what appears to be a successful and diverse career in that time.kinabalu said:
It won't bring him down. He'll be loving it. There are 4 little words that he values above all else. That he lives and breathes for. That keep his pecker pointing skywards and the moolah pouring into his groaning bank account.felix said:
It would be amusing if this issue brought him down. I'm unclear if there'll be much sympathy for him regardless of views on MM.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear, I see Piers Moron, so popular with the twitterati over the past year, not so popular now. Now calling for his sacking, and an online petition of course.
"Piers Morgan is trending."
His professional persona is that of an arsehole, and it's not unreasonable to assume it's because he is also an arsehole generally. But he obviously manages, professionally, to stay on the right side of the line to keep being employed whereas, say, someone like Laurence Fox seems like he wants to go down that route but is too much an arsehole.
Clever positioning.0 -
I felt on balance that the benefits of international cooperation outweighed the loss of sovereignty and I was disappointed that a small majority felt differently. And I agree with the view that many of them were misled about the likely gains and will eventually come to realise this. But rejoining isn't the answer. The omelette has been cooked.kinabalu said:
Yes, and there were many like you. Leavers, really, but too wussy to vote for it. This is why 52/48 does not sum up the result. It wasn't, in truth, that close. The true mood of the nation was clear Leave. It was a mood landslide.Alphabet_Soup said:
A lot of timid folk, such as myself, voted for the status quo in 2016. It stands to reason, therefore, that we would now tend to vote to stay out, rather than repeating the tortuous negotiations of the past 4 years. On the other hand, a few of those who voted Leave are lifelong radicals always on the lookout for something to change. It's hard to see how rejoining the EU would satisfy their craving.Floater said:OOps
https://order-order.com/2021/03/09/no-bregrets-just-39-of-brits-want-to-re-join-the-eu/
Another slow hand clap for the EU1 -
Someone is in line for a royal spanking, I presume the main punishment for family.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Maybe Sky should have added statementkle4 said:
I'm more concerned that a building has become sentient enough to express emotion.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking
Buckingham Palace saddened to learn the full extent of how challenging the last few years have been for Harry and Megan0 -
How about a hybrid monarchy? Only the top 10 in the line of succession and over 18 can stand, but beyond that is just directly elected.Philip_Thompson said:
Given the similarities between the poor way Meghan has been treated and the poor way Diana was, there would be a certain poetry if Charles were at fault for both.FrancisUrquhart said:
I presume it is totally coincidental that he basically doesn't talk to his dad at all now.Pulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !
If it was him, it would be quite surprising it was said an intentionally racist way, unlike some Royals.
As Charles has always made a big thing of his much more modern outlook e.g. all the eco stuff, and then after that long running Guardian legal battle, we got what he privately writes to the government and it was all stuff like demanding answers over what they intend to do about to help protect the lesser spotted newt that plays an important some Amazonian tribe continued existence.
And he's meant to be our future King "long to rule over us" 😕3 -
Buckingham Palace statement continues
The issues are concerning and will be addressed privately1 -
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1369341089765863424?s=20
To the uncharitable:
"full extent" - "they didn't tell us"
"recollections may vary" - "liars"
"addressed by the family privately" - "we're not taking part in this circus"1 -
I see no flaws whatsover in a system which puts royals against each other over the succession, history has shown that works out fine.noneoftheabove said:
How about a hybrid monarchy? Only the top 10 in the line of succession and over 18 can stand, but beyond that is just directly elected.Philip_Thompson said:
Given the similarities between the poor way Meghan has been treated and the poor way Diana was, there would be a certain poetry if Charles were at fault for both.FrancisUrquhart said:
I presume it is totally coincidental that he basically doesn't talk to his dad at all now.Pulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !
If it was him, it would be quite surprising it was said an intentionally racist way, unlike some Royals.
As Charles has always made a big thing of his much more modern outlook e.g. all the eco stuff, and then after that long running Guardian legal battle, we got what he privately writes to the government and it was all stuff like demanding answers over what they intend to do about to help protect the lesser spotted newt that plays an important some Amazonian tribe continued existence.
And he's meant to be our future King "long to rule over us" 😕
I'd go the other route, Ottoman it and have all but the heir...taken care of, at their accession.0 -
Sky News seems to have succumbed to the 'pathetic palacey'...kle4 said:
I'm more concerned that a building has become sentient enough to express emotion.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking
Buckingham Palace saddened to learn the full extent of how challenging the last few years have been for Harry and Megan0 -
Glad you put the "weird" in there. It makes all the difference. The post would not work without it. As it is, weirdly, it does.kle4 said:
I've said before I have a weird respect for Piers Morgan. I've been aware of him as a person for nearly 20 years and in all that time it seems as though everyone hates him, yet he's managed to have what appears to be a successful and diverse career in that time.kinabalu said:
It won't bring him down. He'll be loving it. There are 4 little words that he values above all else. That he lives and breathes for. That keep his pecker pointing skywards and the moolah pouring into his groaning bank account.felix said:
It would be amusing if this issue brought him down. I'm unclear if there'll be much sympathy for him regardless of views on MM.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear, I see Piers Moron, so popular with the twitterati over the past year, not so popular now. Now calling for his sacking, and an online petition of course.
"Piers Morgan is trending."1 -
I commend the ancient rules for the succession of Welsh princes. No namby pamby primogeniture. Distant cousins slug it out and the cruellest bastard wins, thereby producing a leader that everyone can look up to (or else).noneoftheabove said:
How about a hybrid monarchy? Only the top 10 in the line of succession and over 18 can stand, but beyond that is just directly elected.Philip_Thompson said:
Given the similarities between the poor way Meghan has been treated and the poor way Diana was, there would be a certain poetry if Charles were at fault for both.FrancisUrquhart said:
I presume it is totally coincidental that he basically doesn't talk to his dad at all now.Pulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !
If it was him, it would be quite surprising it was said an intentionally racist way, unlike some Royals.
As Charles has always made a big thing of his much more modern outlook e.g. all the eco stuff, and then after that long running Guardian legal battle, we got what he privately writes to the government and it was all stuff like demanding answers over what they intend to do about to help protect the lesser spotted newt that plays an important some Amazonian tribe continued existence.
And he's meant to be our future King "long to rule over us" 😕1 -
I don't think that's going to cut the mustard!CarlottaVance said:
At this point I'd say whoever made the comment about Archie's skin colour needs to admit it and get their version of events out there.
It's going to come out in the end anyway. These things always do...0 -
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It's amazing how many people still don't get this.TimT said:The US to be swimming in vaccines within 2 months - 500m vaccines on the way:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/
If only someone had recognised this early...6 -
I wonder whether Piers Morgan is about to go out in a "blaze of glory" moment on GMB and then join GB News?Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC
41,000 complaints to Ofcom re Piers Morgan comments today0 -
Quite. It definitely has a lawyer vibe to it (not that that is a surprise) - keep it short and say no more than necessary (remember Trump's belated 'call' condemnation of the coup rioters?)CarlottaVance said:
'Saddened to learn' - We dispute that you raised this
'Recollections vary' - We don't accept the allegations
'Will be addressed' - but it's serious enough we have to say we are doing something
Back covering, sure, but it is actually correct that this be dealt with privately - this is a family dispute, ultimately, albeit a very high profile family. A resolution of any kind is not likely, but isn't helped by further escalation in public.
0 -
Domestic cruises in the UK could resume from 17 May, according to the maritime minister.
The All Party Parliamentary Maritime and Ports Group said that Robert Courts MP made the announcement in a meeting on Monday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-563367870 -
Quelle surprise.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I was thinking, "full extent" could be said to be, "we ignored it at the time".CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1369341089765863424?s=20
To the uncharitable:
"full extent" - "they didn't tell us"
"recollections may vary" - "liars"
"addressed by the family privately" - "we're not taking part in this circus"0 -
But can the states distribute them & do enough (Republicans) want them?rcs1000 said:
It's amazing how many people still don't get this.TimT said:The US to be swimming in vaccines within 2 months - 500m vaccines on the way:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/
If only someone had recognised this early...0 -
Greens entering dangerous waters with May just round the cornerkle4 said:
Quelle surprise.CarlottaVance said:0 -
My daughter rides both Eventing (3 Star) and Dressage (Grand Prix), so I am not allowed to make dressage jokes at home.TOPPING said:
One year at Burghley a friend and I finally found somewhere nice and quiet to sit and chat and were happily doing so for some time before we noticed the looks of death from those around us. At which point we realised that we had inadvertently wandered into the dressage arena.TimT said:
LOL. A typical Grand Prix dressage test takes around 6 minutes to complete. It just seems like an eternity to anyone who does not ride dressage.Alphabet_Soup said:
Europe aren't treating vaccination like a marathon, either. More like dressage.kle4 said:
Oh indeed. I was speaking equivalently - it's faster than many people sprint, but for them they could still, over short periods (like right at the end) go faster than through most of the race.Anabobazina said:
Some of them do! Amazing to think that the top male marathon runners average a mile about every four and a half minutes. That's absolutely mind-blowing to me.kle4 said:
I love the marathon/sprint analogy, used to claim going faster is a bad thing essentially (until they have gone faster). People still run fast in a marathon, in fact they go as fast as they possibly can. If they could physically sprint a marathon they would.CarlottaVance said:
That people speed up at the end of a marathon/10000m whatever is pretty mindblowing. I know why 100m is more of a spectacle, but it doesn't wow like the long distance guys for me.
1 -
Thats an idea. Don't ban foreign flights, just make them temporarily eyewateringly expensive.CarlottaVance said:2 -
As a compromise, I am totally up for the restoration of the Witenagemot, and with it an elective monarchy.Alphabet_Soup said:
I commend the ancient rules for the succession of Welsh princes. No namby pamby primogeniture. Distant cousins slug it out and the cruellest bastard wins, thereby producing a leader that everyone can look up to (or else).noneoftheabove said:
How about a hybrid monarchy? Only the top 10 in the line of succession and over 18 can stand, but beyond that is just directly elected.Philip_Thompson said:
Given the similarities between the poor way Meghan has been treated and the poor way Diana was, there would be a certain poetry if Charles were at fault for both.FrancisUrquhart said:
I presume it is totally coincidental that he basically doesn't talk to his dad at all now.Pulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !
If it was him, it would be quite surprising it was said an intentionally racist way, unlike some Royals.
As Charles has always made a big thing of his much more modern outlook e.g. all the eco stuff, and then after that long running Guardian legal battle, we got what he privately writes to the government and it was all stuff like demanding answers over what they intend to do about to help protect the lesser spotted newt that plays an important some Amazonian tribe continued existence.
And he's meant to be our future King "long to rule over us" 😕
The Queen has been on the throne for ages. She must have accumulated enough Prestige* to do this by now.
*I may or may not have spent more time than is healthy playing Crusader Kings recently.
0 -
Thanks. Yes, I remember that. But it kind of supports my point. That was one specific instance. If a circuit breaker was defined as being 2 weeks you'd only need to refer to it as a circuit breaker. The "two week" bit would be gratuitous.Stocky said:
The talk at the time was specifically of a "two week circuit breaker".kinabalu said:
I'm wasn't aware we had an accepted definition of it as being of duration 2 weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
How short is short enough to still be called a circuit breaker? Especially when the circuit breaker has been defined as 2 weeks.kinabalu said:
A circuit breaker is slang for a short lockdown. Can a lockdown be so short as to not work because the "last night party" effect outweighs the gains? Yes. But can a lockdown be long enough to work but still short enough to be called a circuit breaker? Also yes.Philip_Thompson said:
Lockdowns work, circuit breaks don't. That's the point.Andy_Cooke said:
They do work. It's coming out of them that doesn't work as well.Philip_Thompson said:
Except circuit breakers don't work.Andy_Cooke said:
Mid-September.Theuniondivvie said:
Sorry if I missed it in your posts, but on what date were HMG still giving Tegnell, Gupta and Heneghan a hearing?Andy_Cooke said:Johnson’s decision [not to lock down] flew in the face of all the advice over the summer from the World Bank, the cross-party group of politicians and leading international public health experts. Some of his advisers were incandescent. “I don’t have sympathy for the government making the same mistake twice,” said a senior source on the Sage committee. “We told them quite clearly what they need to do for it to work. They don’t do that . . . It’s been wishful thinking all the way through. I think that probably characterises Boris Johnson, frankly.” "
...
"Vallance gave an example of what might happen if the current levels of infections were allowed to carry on doubling every week — as they appeared to be doing. This, he said, would lead to around 200-plus deaths per day by the middle of November. It was a shocking prediction that drew scathing criticism — one newspaper quoted an unnamed Tory MP describing them as Messrs “Witless and Unbalanced” for exaggerating the figures. In fact, Vallance had hugely downplayed the predicted November death figures, which would be nearer the 500 daily fatalities upper estimate he had given Johnson a few days earlier. "
...
"On October 30, the operation committee met again in Downing Street. Johnson, Sunak, Gove and Hancock were all present to listen to a presentation from Sir Simon Stevens, head of the NHS, who delivered an unequivocal message: hospitals would be overrun in every part of England within weeks if nothing was done.
The prime minister had no choice. He had to finally give in — despite everything he and his chancellor had said about their determination to avoid locking down. A decision was taken to announce a lockdown after the weekend. But fearing that Johnson might wobble again, someone in the prime minister’s close circle leaked the news to the The Times. The prime minister was forced to call a press conference the next day."
------------
Jesus.
The thing is, we all saw this coming at the time.
(The other two academics at that meeting other than Tegnell were Gupta and Heneghan. Such a surprise.)
It's only looking back that we can recall just how forecasts of 200 deaths a day were so thoroughly mocked by the lockdown sceptics. We went above that on the 21st of October and we are JUST about to drop below a 200-a-day seven day average now for the first time since then. We were past 350 a day on the 1st of November and past 400 a day by the end of the first week in November.
Thanks a bunch, Heneghan, Tegnell, Gupta, Sunak, and the Lockdown Sceptics.
And by paying the price of those thousands upon thousands of bereaved families... they ended up fucking up the economy with an even longer and deeper lockdown, anyway. Thanks to the moronic denialists.
[2/2]
It was thanks to them that the "circuit breaker" lockdown for early October got canned.
Leading to the full-on second wave, letting it get out of control, and needing drastic measures to bring it back under control.
They and the Lockdown Sceptics pressure (via the Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs) against any restrictions (so it always got worse and needed more and more restrictions) are why we've had such a hell of a winter, and why we've been in lockdown so long.
In an alternate timeline, where they weren't listened to, we locked down in October, saw off the rise, went with tougher Tiers, and kept it all under control without kids missing one day of school or the need for any full-on lockdown.
This is the Sunak/Gupta/Heneghan lockdown - needed thanks to their idiocy.
Wales tried the circuit break, it was a miserable failure.
Other nations around the globe have tried circuit breaks. Not one of them has succeeded.
So other than that, good point, well done.
The four week circuit break in November brought it down.
The nine weeks since early January has worked as well.
Call it what you like; we're talking about applying lockdown rules for a given period to bring down infection rates. And every time we've done this, infection rates have dropped.
The second you lift the "circuit break" cases instantly start rising again. And if its only 2 weeks that achieves squat since people party "last night of freedom" before the 2 weeks, then party "wahay free again" afterwards counteracting the whole point of just 2 weeks which isn't long enough to do much.
So you can't point to today's lockdown and act as if it would have all been avoidable had we just wished it away with a 2 week circuit break. 2 weeks doesn't work.
If you want a lockdown, fair enough, but then don't complain about having a lockdown. The idea a lockdown could be avoided if we'd just done one for 2 weeks then got back to normal is farcical wishful thinking.
If the 4 weeks in November worked then you can't blame today's lockdown on not having a 2 week one in October.
Ergo "lockdowns work, circuit breaks don't" = tilt.
If you say that a circuit break works, so long as you don't come out of it, then that is a lockdown not a circuit break. A circuit break only works if you can come out of it in the time stated.
Can you name any country, anywhere, which has had significant case numbers and rising cases which has seen a 2 week circuit break work?
Link?
See:
www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4038
If the discussion was about that specific instance rather than in general, ok, fair enough, but I saw the statement "lockdowns work, circuit breakers don't" and it sounded like a proposed iron law.
But anyway. I sense a torrid no-score draw.0 -
That doesn't specifically help Europe though as the US will likely prefer to use its spare capacity to counter Chinese vaccine diplomacy in APAC and over here our spare capacity has basically already been pledged to developing nations eligible for foreign aid.rcs1000 said:
It's amazing how many people still don't get this.TimT said:The US to be swimming in vaccines within 2 months - 500m vaccines on the way:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/
If only someone had recognised this early...
The issue Europe has is that it underinvested from April 2020 until January 2021 and now they have got 9 months of catching up to do relative to the UK or US who both invested very heavily in domestic production and domestic supply chains to support independent manufacturing.
I don't see either the US or UK using bought spare capacity to bail out the EU, which leaves them playing catch up with their own domestic manufacturing. Something they may struggle to attract private investment for now that their export bans have been realised so it's all going to have to come from the public purse.2 -
I was going to reference you in posting this, but forgot your exact tag. Should have just said Robertrcs1000 said:
It's amazing how many people still don't get this.TimT said:The US to be swimming in vaccines within 2 months - 500m vaccines on the way:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/
If only someone had recognised this early...1 -
Crikey! Does Theresa normally hide there?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Greens entering dangerous waters with May just round the cornerkle4 said:
Quelle surprise.CarlottaVance said:5 -
Crystal Palace?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Maybe. But ITV is still a serious soap box in a way GB News just isn't going to be. That's why he gets 41k complaints, whereas he wouldn't get a fraction of that on, say, Al Jazeera or even Sky, let alone GB News.GIN1138 said:
I wonder whether Piers Morgan is about to go out in a "blaze of glory" moment on GMB and then join GB News?Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC
41,000 complaints to Ofcom re Piers Morgan comments today
There's a big calculation for those leaving the BBC or ITV. You might get a five year contract with a very nice number at the bottom of it. But where do you go from there? You spend that period very well remunerated but drifting into irrelevance. These places are first jobs for emerging talents, but graveyards for old hands. Maybe he doesn't care - he'd be 60 in five years and might be eyeing the size of the final pay cheque - but I suspect otherwise.0 -
Yes, that one was. But is that the only circuit breaker executed by anybody during the pandemic? Quite a claim to fame for Mark Drakeford if that's the case. Future pub quiz question.MattW said:
The famous Drakeford one was 2 weeks, iirc.kinabalu said:
I'm wasn't aware we had an accepted definition of it as being of duration 2 weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
How short is short enough to still be called a circuit breaker? Especially when the circuit breaker has been defined as 2 weeks.kinabalu said:
A circuit breaker is slang for a short lockdown. Can a lockdown be so short as to not work because the "last night party" effect outweighs the gains? Yes. But can a lockdown be long enough to work but still short enough to be called a circuit breaker? Also yes.Philip_Thompson said:
Lockdowns work, circuit breaks don't. That's the point.Andy_Cooke said:
They do work. It's coming out of them that doesn't work as well.Philip_Thompson said:
Except circuit breakers don't work.Andy_Cooke said:
Mid-September.Theuniondivvie said:
Sorry if I missed it in your posts, but on what date were HMG still giving Tegnell, Gupta and Heneghan a hearing?Andy_Cooke said:Johnson’s decision [not to lock down] flew in the face of all the advice over the summer from the World Bank, the cross-party group of politicians and leading international public health experts. Some of his advisers were incandescent. “I don’t have sympathy for the government making the same mistake twice,” said a senior source on the Sage committee. “We told them quite clearly what they need to do for it to work. They don’t do that . . . It’s been wishful thinking all the way through. I think that probably characterises Boris Johnson, frankly.” "
...
"Vallance gave an example of what might happen if the current levels of infections were allowed to carry on doubling every week — as they appeared to be doing. This, he said, would lead to around 200-plus deaths per day by the middle of November. It was a shocking prediction that drew scathing criticism — one newspaper quoted an unnamed Tory MP describing them as Messrs “Witless and Unbalanced” for exaggerating the figures. In fact, Vallance had hugely downplayed the predicted November death figures, which would be nearer the 500 daily fatalities upper estimate he had given Johnson a few days earlier. "
...
"On October 30, the operation committee met again in Downing Street. Johnson, Sunak, Gove and Hancock were all present to listen to a presentation from Sir Simon Stevens, head of the NHS, who delivered an unequivocal message: hospitals would be overrun in every part of England within weeks if nothing was done.
The prime minister had no choice. He had to finally give in — despite everything he and his chancellor had said about their determination to avoid locking down. A decision was taken to announce a lockdown after the weekend. But fearing that Johnson might wobble again, someone in the prime minister’s close circle leaked the news to the The Times. The prime minister was forced to call a press conference the next day."
------------
Jesus.
The thing is, we all saw this coming at the time.
(The other two academics at that meeting other than Tegnell were Gupta and Heneghan. Such a surprise.)
It's only looking back that we can recall just how forecasts of 200 deaths a day were so thoroughly mocked by the lockdown sceptics. We went above that on the 21st of October and we are JUST about to drop below a 200-a-day seven day average now for the first time since then. We were past 350 a day on the 1st of November and past 400 a day by the end of the first week in November.
Thanks a bunch, Heneghan, Tegnell, Gupta, Sunak, and the Lockdown Sceptics.
And by paying the price of those thousands upon thousands of bereaved families... they ended up fucking up the economy with an even longer and deeper lockdown, anyway. Thanks to the moronic denialists.
[2/2]
It was thanks to them that the "circuit breaker" lockdown for early October got canned.
Leading to the full-on second wave, letting it get out of control, and needing drastic measures to bring it back under control.
They and the Lockdown Sceptics pressure (via the Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs) against any restrictions (so it always got worse and needed more and more restrictions) are why we've had such a hell of a winter, and why we've been in lockdown so long.
In an alternate timeline, where they weren't listened to, we locked down in October, saw off the rise, went with tougher Tiers, and kept it all under control without kids missing one day of school or the need for any full-on lockdown.
This is the Sunak/Gupta/Heneghan lockdown - needed thanks to their idiocy.
Wales tried the circuit break, it was a miserable failure.
Other nations around the globe have tried circuit breaks. Not one of them has succeeded.
So other than that, good point, well done.
The four week circuit break in November brought it down.
The nine weeks since early January has worked as well.
Call it what you like; we're talking about applying lockdown rules for a given period to bring down infection rates. And every time we've done this, infection rates have dropped.
The second you lift the "circuit break" cases instantly start rising again. And if its only 2 weeks that achieves squat since people party "last night of freedom" before the 2 weeks, then party "wahay free again" afterwards counteracting the whole point of just 2 weeks which isn't long enough to do much.
So you can't point to today's lockdown and act as if it would have all been avoidable had we just wished it away with a 2 week circuit break. 2 weeks doesn't work.
If you want a lockdown, fair enough, but then don't complain about having a lockdown. The idea a lockdown could be avoided if we'd just done one for 2 weeks then got back to normal is farcical wishful thinking.
If the 4 weeks in November worked then you can't blame today's lockdown on not having a 2 week one in October.
Ergo "lockdowns work, circuit breaks don't" = tilt.
If you say that a circuit break works, so long as you don't come out of it, then that is a lockdown not a circuit break. A circuit break only works if you can come out of it in the time stated.
Can you name any country, anywhere, which has had significant case numbers and rising cases which has seen a 2 week circuit break work?
Link?0 -
Greens will save him , they will be on a promise.Big_G_NorthWales said:John Swinney to face a no confidence vote tomorrow
0 -
"The figures offer yet more proof that Covid is much deadlier than flu, which kills around 0.1 per cent of everyone infected. Not everyone in England has even had coronavirus, meaning the true infection fatality rate (IFR) of the illness will be much higher. No10's top scientists believe the overall IFR is around 0.5 per cent but the disease is a lot deadlier to the elderly."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9326909/Nearly-0-4-people-living-two-Essex-boroughs-died-Covid-pandemic-began.html0 -
Classy statement from Buckingham PalaceCarlottaVance said:1 -
Yes. It reminds me of the Queen at her conciliatory best from the Covid broadcast.HYUFD said:
Classy statement from Buckingham PalaceCarlottaVance said:2 -
The comments from the Royal Family seem sensible and measured to me.2
-
Nice ambiguity there as to whether it's the allegations that are concerning, or the fact/way they've been made.CarlottaVance said:2 -
It will be interesting to see how the Sussexes reply.....last time they had to have a bit of snark......HYUFD said:
Classy statement from Buckingham PalaceCarlottaVance said:1 -
Unlike your comments on the matterHYUFD said:
Classy statement from Buckingham PalaceCarlottaVance said:1 -
With all due respect, I think you're still missing the scale of the increase in vaccine production, and that fact that the producers of vaccines are private companies.MaxPB said:
That doesn't specifically help Europe though as the US will likely prefer to use its spare capacity to counter Chinese vaccine diplomacy in APAC and over here our spare capacity has basically already been pledged to developing nations eligible for foreign aid.rcs1000 said:
It's amazing how many people still don't get this.TimT said:The US to be swimming in vaccines within 2 months - 500m vaccines on the way:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/
If only someone had recognised this early...
The issue Europe has is that it underinvested from April 2020 until January 2021 and now they have got 9 months of catching up to do relative to the UK or US who both invested very heavily in domestic production and domestic supply chains to support independent manufacturing.
I don't see either the US or UK using bought spare capacity to bail out the EU, which leaves them playing catch up with their own domestic manufacturing. Something they may struggle to attract private investment for now that their export bans have been realised so it's all going to have to come from the public purse.
Don't forget Novavax is manufacturing with an Indian partner, Moderna with a Swiss one, and J&J is also announcing non-US manufacturing partners in the coming weeks. CureVac has signed up Bayer and Novartis to manufacture for it. Plus there's the billion doses each from Pfizer and AZ this year.
Let's put this in context for a second, the Lonza plant in Switzerland alone will be producing close to a million doses a day from the end of April.
You are also seeing European countries go beyond the EU now. Denmark and Austria have struck deals with Israel to pick up their excess doses, to example.
The EU will be functionally done by the end of summer, because the doses exist, and these are rich countries that can afford to write checks.0 -
Dressage richly deserves its reputation as the most tedious spectacle known to mankind. It's also quite baffling: the contestants enter the arena and do their stuff, and then the judges put up scores presumably based on some criteria, but what these criteria might be is completely unfathomable. I did once attend a rodeo in Texas, which works on the same principle and is equally baffling, but it was much more entertaining, seeing as the exercises involve things like the rider leaping off the horse at high speed on to a steer, rather than having the horse lift its left foot six inches.TOPPING said:One year at Burghley a friend and I finally found somewhere nice and quiet to sit and chat and were happily doing so for some time before we noticed the looks of death from those around us. At which point we realised that we had inadvertently wandered into the dressage arena.
3 -
Not if we were to become a republicPhilip_Thompson said:
Given the similarities between the poor way Meghan has been treated and the poor way Diana was, there would be a certain poetry if Charles were at fault for both.FrancisUrquhart said:
I presume it is totally coincidental that he basically doesn't talk to his dad at all now.Pulpstar said:Mail headline: Palace 'fears Harry and Meghan will NAME Royal
Checks story: 1,2,3,..... 15 photos of Prince Charles !
If it was him, it would be quite surprising it was said an intentionally racist way, unlike some Royals.
As Charles has always made a big thing of his much more modern outlook e.g. all the eco stuff, and then after that long running Guardian legal battle, we got what he privately writes to the government and it was all stuff like demanding answers over what they intend to do about to help protect the lesser spotted newt that plays an important some Amazonian tribe continued existence.
And he's meant to be our future King "long to rule over us" 😕
0 -
Yes, I get it now. I was fooled by the way you put it - Lockdowns Work. Circuit breakers Don't.Philip_Thompson said:
The proposed SAGE circuit break was explicitly for 2 weeks. As Wales tried and it didn't work.kinabalu said:
I'm wasn't aware we had an accepted definition of it as being of duration 2 weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
How short is short enough to still be called a circuit breaker? Especially when the circuit breaker has been defined as 2 weeks.kinabalu said:
A circuit breaker is slang for a short lockdown. Can a lockdown be so short as to not work because the "last night party" effect outweighs the gains? Yes. But can a lockdown be long enough to work but still short enough to be called a circuit breaker? Also yes.Philip_Thompson said:
Lockdowns work, circuit breaks don't. That's the point.Andy_Cooke said:
They do work. It's coming out of them that doesn't work as well.Philip_Thompson said:
Except circuit breakers don't work.Andy_Cooke said:
Mid-September.Theuniondivvie said:
Sorry if I missed it in your posts, but on what date were HMG still giving Tegnell, Gupta and Heneghan a hearing?Andy_Cooke said:Johnson’s decision [not to lock down] flew in the face of all the advice over the summer from the World Bank, the cross-party group of politicians and leading international public health experts. Some of his advisers were incandescent. “I don’t have sympathy for the government making the same mistake twice,” said a senior source on the Sage committee. “We told them quite clearly what they need to do for it to work. They don’t do that . . . It’s been wishful thinking all the way through. I think that probably characterises Boris Johnson, frankly.” "
...
"Vallance gave an example of what might happen if the current levels of infections were allowed to carry on doubling every week — as they appeared to be doing. This, he said, would lead to around 200-plus deaths per day by the middle of November. It was a shocking prediction that drew scathing criticism — one newspaper quoted an unnamed Tory MP describing them as Messrs “Witless and Unbalanced” for exaggerating the figures. In fact, Vallance had hugely downplayed the predicted November death figures, which would be nearer the 500 daily fatalities upper estimate he had given Johnson a few days earlier. "
...
"On October 30, the operation committee met again in Downing Street. Johnson, Sunak, Gove and Hancock were all present to listen to a presentation from Sir Simon Stevens, head of the NHS, who delivered an unequivocal message: hospitals would be overrun in every part of England within weeks if nothing was done.
The prime minister had no choice. He had to finally give in — despite everything he and his chancellor had said about their determination to avoid locking down. A decision was taken to announce a lockdown after the weekend. But fearing that Johnson might wobble again, someone in the prime minister’s close circle leaked the news to the The Times. The prime minister was forced to call a press conference the next day."
------------
Jesus.
The thing is, we all saw this coming at the time.
(The other two academics at that meeting other than Tegnell were Gupta and Heneghan. Such a surprise.)
It's only looking back that we can recall just how forecasts of 200 deaths a day were so thoroughly mocked by the lockdown sceptics. We went above that on the 21st of October and we are JUST about to drop below a 200-a-day seven day average now for the first time since then. We were past 350 a day on the 1st of November and past 400 a day by the end of the first week in November.
Thanks a bunch, Heneghan, Tegnell, Gupta, Sunak, and the Lockdown Sceptics.
And by paying the price of those thousands upon thousands of bereaved families... they ended up fucking up the economy with an even longer and deeper lockdown, anyway. Thanks to the moronic denialists.
[2/2]
It was thanks to them that the "circuit breaker" lockdown for early October got canned.
Leading to the full-on second wave, letting it get out of control, and needing drastic measures to bring it back under control.
They and the Lockdown Sceptics pressure (via the Covid Recovery Group of Tory MPs) against any restrictions (so it always got worse and needed more and more restrictions) are why we've had such a hell of a winter, and why we've been in lockdown so long.
In an alternate timeline, where they weren't listened to, we locked down in October, saw off the rise, went with tougher Tiers, and kept it all under control without kids missing one day of school or the need for any full-on lockdown.
This is the Sunak/Gupta/Heneghan lockdown - needed thanks to their idiocy.
Wales tried the circuit break, it was a miserable failure.
Other nations around the globe have tried circuit breaks. Not one of them has succeeded.
So other than that, good point, well done.
The four week circuit break in November brought it down.
The nine weeks since early January has worked as well.
Call it what you like; we're talking about applying lockdown rules for a given period to bring down infection rates. And every time we've done this, infection rates have dropped.
The second you lift the "circuit break" cases instantly start rising again. And if its only 2 weeks that achieves squat since people party "last night of freedom" before the 2 weeks, then party "wahay free again" afterwards counteracting the whole point of just 2 weeks which isn't long enough to do much.
So you can't point to today's lockdown and act as if it would have all been avoidable had we just wished it away with a 2 week circuit break. 2 weeks doesn't work.
If you want a lockdown, fair enough, but then don't complain about having a lockdown. The idea a lockdown could be avoided if we'd just done one for 2 weeks then got back to normal is farcical wishful thinking.
If the 4 weeks in November worked then you can't blame today's lockdown on not having a 2 week one in October.
Ergo "lockdowns work, circuit breaks don't" = tilt.
If you say that a circuit break works, so long as you don't come out of it, then that is a lockdown not a circuit break. A circuit break only works if you can come out of it in the time stated.
Can you name any country, anywhere, which has had significant case numbers and rising cases which has seen a 2 week circuit break work?
Link?
See the Times article Andy linked to that started this discussion.
Like that was a law of science or something. But it was just you being you. It's fine.0 -
Its a very brief statement from the palace.0
-
Less is more, at least that's what I tell my girlfriend.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a very brief statement from the palace.
2 -
I imagine it will depend upon how big of a cheque the EU are prepared to write?MaxPB said:
That doesn't specifically help Europe though as the US will likely prefer to use its spare capacity to counter Chinese vaccine diplomacy in APAC and over here our spare capacity has basically already been pledged to developing nations eligible for foreign aid.rcs1000 said:
It's amazing how many people still don't get this.TimT said:The US to be swimming in vaccines within 2 months - 500m vaccines on the way:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/03/09/covid-19-vaccine-us-surplus-april-coronavirus/4595458001/
If only someone had recognised this early...
The issue Europe has is that it underinvested from April 2020 until January 2021 and now they have got 9 months of catching up to do relative to the UK or US who both invested very heavily in domestic production and domestic supply chains to support independent manufacturing.
I don't see either the US or UK using bought spare capacity to bail out the EU, which leaves them playing catch up with their own domestic manufacturing. Something they may struggle to attract private investment for now that their export bans have been realised so it's all going to have to come from the public purse.0 -
kle4 said:
Oh indeed. I was speaking equivalently - it's faster than many people sprint, but for them they could still, over short periods (like right at the end) go faster than through most of the race.Anabobazina said:
Some of them do! Amazing to think that the top male marathon runners average a mile about every four and a half minutes. That's absolutely mind-blowing to me.kle4 said:
I love the marathon/sprint analogy, used to claim going faster is a bad thing essentially (until they have gone faster). People still run fast in a marathon, in fact they go as fast as they possibly can. If they could physically sprint a marathon they would.CarlottaVance said:
That people speed up at the end of a marathon/10000m whatever is pretty mindblowing. I know why 100m is more of a spectacle, but it doesn't wow like the long distance guys for me.
“No10's top scientists believe the overall IFR is around 0.5 per cent but the disease is a lot deadlier to the elderly.”Andy_JS said:"The figures offer yet more proof that Covid is much deadlier than flu, which kills around 0.1 per cent of everyone infected. Not everyone in England has even had coronavirus, meaning the true infection fatality rate (IFR) of the illness will be much higher. No10's top scientists believe the overall IFR is around 0.5 per cent but the disease is a lot deadlier to the elderly."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9326909/Nearly-0-4-people-living-two-Essex-boroughs-died-Covid-pandemic-began.html
This ‘explanatory’ paragraph makes me wonder whether it’s the reader, or the writer, that needs a course in basic statistics.1 -
I can say what I really think, they have to take the moral high ground but some subtle digs there too 'recollections may vary' for exampleGallowgate said:
Unlike your comments on the matterHYUFD said:
Classy statement from Buckingham PalaceCarlottaVance said:1 -
HYUFD is a loyal, determined footsoldier, they're allowed to be a bit rough around the edges compared to the senior commanders.Gallowgate said:
Unlike your comments on the matterHYUFD said:
Classy statement from Buckingham PalaceCarlottaVance said:
Honestly it's not a particularly classy statement, it's careful.0 -
Short and classy unlike the tacky US 2 hour whinge fest.FrancisUrquhart said:Its a very brief statement from the palace.
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They have had their five minutes and this statement was well crafted enough to be seen to be taking the allegations seriously without admitting guilt they cannot really say much in responseCarlottaVance said:
It will be interesting to see how the Sussexes reply.....last time they had to have a bit of snark......HYUFD said:
Classy statement from Buckingham PalaceCarlottaVance said:0
