Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier
Until the YouGov CON 13% lead is supported by other polling then it should be treated as an outlier – politicalbetting.com
It is now nearly a week since we got YouGov’s shock 13% CON lead poll which was pretty much out of kilter with other polls before it and we have not had another voting survey to indicate whether this pointed to a new trend or was simply an outlier.
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He'll surely face a challenge in the run-up to the conference season were all that to happen.
It's a shame BF don't have a Starmer exit market.
The outlier looks like Labour as low as 32. That sticks out like a sore thumb, currently unsubstantiated.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1369175624234000388
Claims of outliers on pb.com are very much more common than actual outliers, which should be very rare.
How many polls are there in a non-election year? Maybe one a week, or so.
Then assuming a Gaussian distribution with a σ of say 2 %, we can expect to be out by 3 σ or +/- 6 % about once every 7 years.
That is how unlikely an outlier of this magnitude is.
I don't think merely slimming down the number of royals is enough. We need a Royal Charter that defines the role of the monarchy and then all the current staff should be fired. A new support organisation would need to be recruited with staff in tune with the Charter. You have to change the culture, not just the front players.
Harry referred to his father and his brother as being "trapped". I think this is what he was referring to. They might welcome being freed from the old culture. Make a fresh start for the 21st century.
Under such circumstances you would be forgiven for thinking if even the Opposition thinks they are doing a good job then why shouldn't I?
The problem with recruiting entry level positions is that you are to a large extent gambling that theoretical ability will eventually translate into actual performance. I find any evidence that a candidate has already proven themselves to be incredibly reassuring.
It gives the Tories an overall majority of 26.
Also, Civil War has broken out between Sturgeon & Salmond.
Also, he is up against Sir Wooden Starmer. And Sir Lifeless Davey.
We're damn lucky the lead is only 13 %, come to think of it.
Put simply, the Queen is very much aware that she is the Queen and the line of succession also. Hence it would be possible to see Charles as fiercely protective of that when dealing with potential disruptions, possibly even if that is your son.
Without understanding the status and perception of that status of the Royal Family it is very difficult to understand the behaviour we are seeing now.
SKS will do just well enough to stay put, but not well enough to convince neutrals that he can win in 2024.
I don't think there's much evidence to back up anything specific they said.
And all the furious commentators are furiously saying what they would be saying anyway, just with a different projected backdrop.
If it's a standard entry level role, I would go with whatever maximises the chances of getting an interview, where you can better explain your motivations. Which probably means go harder rather than softer on your experience.
Branding experts purr that Harry and Meghan have an interest in preserving the integrity of their brand. But the logic of 21st-century capitalism is against a peaceful settlement. They will need more than Prince Harry’s inheritance, which is estimated at £20m-30m, to keep up with the global super-rich. Ensuring that their brand remains hot and providing their “distribution channels” with “content” will require them to extract more and more value from the monarchy—perhaps including revelations about racism and sexism at the heart of the royal family. The daylight that Walter Bagehot said should not be let in upon the magic of monarchy is as nothing to the glare of 21st-century capitalism.
https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/01/16/harry-meghan-and-marx
2006 when the UK banned Foie Gras production in the UK.
All that did was export its production to France - which we could do nothing about while we were in the EU.
So all the Conservatives are doing is follow a Labour policy to its logical conclusion.
"Most papers this morning declare that the Palace is "in crisis" as it decides how to respond. But most of the coverage in the UK is revealing of a fundamental reluctance to have a conversation about the future of the monarchy or to analyse the dynamics discussed by Prince Harry (nor, indeed, to reckon with the place of the British press in this story). That's the key to the monarchy's survival: no matter what happens or what revelations are levelled against it as an institution, a discussion about whether it should persist is always viewed as a bit fanatical, a bit weird, a bit gauche. That's why even serious allegations like these are unlikely to shake the monarchy, and why the Royal Family is more secure than Harry and his family think."
The problem is that firms know that ultimately I don't want to be Paralegal long-term and that I will probably f*ck off at the earliest opportunity, which is true in the sense I do want to progress although ideally at the same firm. However I worry that if I present myself at a "too high" of a level firms wont want to deal with the risk of training me up.
Maybe I'm overthinking it, but I'm answering questions such as "When have you held a position of responsibility, for example membership of a sports club" with "I have ran multi-million pound projects"...
I very much appreciate your time and thoughts.
The last time the U.S. saw such skyrocketing home prices, the ensuing crash brought down the global economy.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/08/soaring-home-prices-alarm-policymakers-474433
It's an interesting suggestion, and something along the lines is far more likely to happen with a change of monarch than is abolition of the monarchy.
Or are you happy with a royal household forever anchored in the 1950s ?
In this scenario, those MPs critical of Starmer with a bit of punch, those who hate the Tories and have a fair bit of popular support amongst Momentum could oust him in the right conditions.
Clive Lewis at 33/1 and John Mcdonnell at 100/1 seem like petty good outside shouts of becoming next leader IMO and repesent far better odds than the likes of Khan and Burnham with no obvious route into parliament.
The 2016 results were equivalent to a national vote lead of 1% in favour of the Conservatives.
The 2017 results were equivalent to a national vote lead of 11% in favour of the Conservatives.
So the "par score" should be in the region of 6% ahead nationally. The current trials and tribulations could make the difference between net gains and net losses.
The stimulus package does represent something of a gamble. The next year or so will be very interesting.
'We all make mistakes ... but I never played naked pool or dressed up as Hitler...'
https://twitter.com/peterja87603295/status/1369215827115966464?s=21
Anyway, they'll probably be more worried that you'll end up marrying a member of a foreign royal family, and quit after a few years, and the firm will completely lose their way after that and wind down a year later.
This doesn't feel anything like 1997. Perhaps the public perception of Meghan is unfair, but ultimately that's what matters in all of this. A politician would have to be absolutely stupid to try to use this episode to bring down the monarchy.
https://twitter.com/YouGovAmerica/status/1369014999625121797?s=20
Diana was liked by both
I hope to see the polls tighten once things have normalized in a few months.
Regardless Starmer will almost certainly gain seats in the county elections anyway given how poorly Corbyn did in them in 2017
He has no special knowledge. And he was a propagator of conspiracy theories about David Kelly and UFOs.
He's a staunch republican. His book is just an airing of his prejudices about monarchy.
Afterall it was the prepandemic normal too.
Just for PB pedantry points, I believe Prince Hal dressed up as a non specific Nazi rather than AH, a sort of Afrika Korps vibe afaicr.
Cheers everyone. On I go...
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/02/23/is-the-monarchy-in-trouble/
My key point was that you need political skill to be apolitical, and it's impermeable nature shouldn't be taken for granted.
Non MP stars like David Miliband are out of sight, while non MP Burnham is 2nd favourite. (Has anyone any idea how badly Burnham woould go down among Labours new middle class outside the north? Rayner would be the same).
It stands out a mile that Labour lack a top five or so heavy hitter stellar contest either now or the foreseeable future. The second favourite isn't even a MP. The mind boggles.
Even on 2017, that YouGov gives a 1% swing Lab to Cons. Anyone expecting the locals to come to Starmer's aid needs to do some digging into the numbers.
Queen Elizabeth: "Key to (her success) has been her supreme self-discipline and self-awareness of public opinion."
Duchess of Sussex: ?
Harry would have had some awesome house parties with Justin Trudeau in his early 20s, I'm sure.
The expected outcomes do not fit a Gaussian distribution, because sampling error is only one type of bias.
There are other reasons we might expect outliers, such as the way that the pollsters filter and weight their respondents, and how that responds to particularly small sample sizes in some categories from week to week.
It also depends on the accuracy of the person giving the statement.
As to their predictive power (i.e. if we are distributing them against the actual result), there are additional factors.
The previous approach of directing the money through the banks using QE results in investors piling in to borrow at very low interest rates and investing in capital assets.
Biden's approach should boost consumer demand in the economy which is what is needed.
1st dose 2nd dose
9,095 8,291
1st dose accum 2nd dose accum
1,007,391 192,030
Expected return of 315k jabs UK wide
(*joking)
I think both Balls and Burnham would be markedly more appealing than Starmer. But neither are MPs. And neither has a front bottom.
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1369255512005611522?s=20
https://twitter.com/shirkerism/status/1369249829289930755?s=21
And look at mid-size lawfirms too. Yes, they don't pay as well, but they don't work you like dogs either and they're more willing to think outside the box on recruitment too.
VM me if you want more.
The times I got to selection centre stage etc it was because they could see how my past experience fitted their needs - don't give up, you will have a good knowledge of purchasing, negotiating, working with others, being what the Danes call 'service minded' - so get those in early on the CV and leave job titles, seniority etc out of it - good luck! I eventually ended up writing applications in investment banking until I went back to do postgraduate study and move into academia - two career changes!
As I said in the previous thread, I must have missed him defending Priti Patel from Phillip Rutnam and his case of 'PTSD from having his authority questioned' - prima facie a far more fitting set of circumstances for the Barnesian treatment. Patel obviously the wrong sort of BAME woman. Ought to talk more about her lived experience, not be a Tory, and try and be a bit more glamorous and American.
Regarding change in the Royal family, it is happening all the time - the institution evolves constantly, sometimes slowly, sometimes fast. The idea that the household should be dismantled and reassembled by the woke police simply because we think someone in it may have once said something off-colour to Meghan Markle is risible. Who the Royal family employs is a matter for them.
Every poll, even Yougov has Labour polling higher than that.
So Labour will still make gains from the LDs even on the 2016 numbers as well as the 2017 numbers, even if Labour only make gains from the Tories on the 2017 numbers in the county elections
I don't think I'd find much in common with that version of Harry or his latest 'beta male' incarnation.
A proper calculation would be a rather lengthier affair.
My conclusion is that the underlying trend towards the Tories is very much more likely to be real than an outlier, even if YouGov may have over-estimated the actual lead.
Foie-Grass without force feeding is available.
Now, will the EU match our level playing field?