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Are the COVID trends positive enough for ministers to ease the lockdown? – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,450
    A friend, a university flatmate of several years, died of Covid a few days ago.

    I am probably quite sensitive to the "just open up it'll be fine" school of thought at the moment.

    And yet, off I send my child to school tomorrow.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    The politics of the UK seem to determine that getting schools back on March 8th is THE most important thing in the world !
    That's going to happen. How R and the rest of unlock fits around that is where decisions have to be made.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,248

    Alistair said:

    DougSeal said:
    Yes, but on the 2nd of October the UK was incredibly obviously heading for utter Covid disaster and no one in charge was doing anything about it.
    I find myself in the unaccustomed position of being by no means the biggest Jeremiah on the forum tonight. Nonetheless, I understand where you are coming from and feel your pain.

    Unless there's a fresh mutation disaster then we're not going to have another craptacular like we did at the start of the year. The first four cohorts have been done and most of them have already had enough time to build immunity, with the others soon to follow. There's simply not as much kindling for the bastard Plague to burn through as there once was.

    Now, if we're unlucky then I suppose there's still the possibility of being caught out by another serious wave of hospital cases, but we also have to remember that, unlike in the Autumn, the virus is now engaged in a race against time against the vaccines. With each passing week its ability to spread itself around is further hampered, and the pool of remaining victims that it can put in hospital reduces. We can't be sure that opening the schools won't send everything to shit (and I'd be a lot happier if they only did it gradually rather than all in one go,) but with a bit of luck the worst is now behind us.

    Besides anything else, we have to remember that the Government now has the gains to its own reputation as well as to the country to defend here. I don't think they'd let the kids back if they thought it was totally reckless, because they must also realise that if it goes horribly wrong and the kids get locked back up again (which would necessarily imply a longer lockdown for everybody else as well,) then their ratings will collapse and might very well take public acquiescence to the lockdown along with them.

    We're getting towards the end of this ordeal. It's not worth their gambling everything so that little Abigail can get back to learning her trigonometry in a school building, rather than on Zoom, a few weeks early. I understand that people are afraid that they'd take a stupid and pointless gamble regardless, but I think for the time being (and given how well the vaccines have been going, and the cautious noises that ministers have been making,) we ought perhaps to assume that they're not going to do anything that's patently mad.
    That’s more or less where I am as well.
    I’d risk sending primary schools back from the 8th and seeing how they go.
    Those Avacta tests Richard N linked to yesterday or the day before, if they work out, could be used for specific and controlled targeted unlocking-with-rapid-tests as well, to help keep people sane while the vaccination programme reaches higher levels.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 389
    Carnyx said:

    Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?

    Caerlaverock Castle, or is that in Dumfriesshire? Whithorn Priory. Old Celtic, latterly the Galwegian abbey.
    It’s in Dumfriesshire. St. Ninian’s Chapel in Isle of Whithorn. Sweetheart Abbey, also in Dumfriesshire.
  • Alistair said:

    A friend, a university flatmate of several years, died of Covid a few days ago.

    I am probably quite sensitive to the "just open up it'll be fine" school of thought at the moment.

    And yet, off I send my child to school tomorrow.

    Sorry for your loss.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533

    According to the government the we're at Covid alert level 5.

    The alert levels are:

    level 1: COVID-19 is not known to be present in the UK

    level 2: COVID-19 is present in UK, but the number of cases and transmission is low

    level 3: a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation

    level 4: a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or rising exponentially

    level 5: as level 4 and there is a material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-alert-level-methodology-an-overview/uk-covid-19-alert-level-methodology-an-overview

    So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?

    That's a stupid set of "alerts".

    Really, this is a grid:

    - overall cases and hospitalisations
    - direction of travel (i.e. R)

    Right now overall cases and hospitalisations are still quite high (although not what they were), but direction of travel is good (albeit not quite as good as previously).

    As we get further through the vaccination process, it will weigh on both of these - by protecting against cases and hospitalisations and putting an upper bound on R.

  • Given that we are probably holidaying in the UK this year, where do you recommend for your fellow PBers? I recommend Galloway. Unspoiled and relatively unknown. Wigtown - Scotland’s book town. Galloway dark skies park. Five Kingdoms Brewery in Isle of Whithorn. Remainers can look over to Northern Ireland. Unionists can visit Alister Jack’s constituency. Train buffs can visit the UK’s last semaphore distant signal. Lovely quiet beaches and great dog walks. Red Kites. Any other recommendations?

    It's a good call. I was thinking Stranraer and environs. We will be coming from London. As the Carlisle - Stranraer railway doesn't appear to be running now thanks Labour, do you have any recommendations for in between accessible by bus, maybe Newton Stewart?
    Newton Stewart would be a good choice if using public transport. Bus from Stranraer, Dumfries or Girvan. Buses to the Machars - Wigtown, Whithorn.
    Thanks Fairliered, much appreciated.👍
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,996
    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.
  • London only went up 0.1 today after having dropped from 1,150 to 85 in six weeks. So maybe we are making progress.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    Pulpstar said:

    The politics of the UK seem to determine that getting schools back on March 8th is THE most important thing in the world !
    That's going to happen. How R and the rest of unlock fits around that is where decisions have to be made.

    Yes, all of this would be a lot easier if the schools could be kept shut until after Easter, when hopefully warmer weather and a few million more vaccinations would also help. Outdoor activities are safer than classrooms and really ought to come first.

    As I said a few minutes ago, I guess we just have to have a little faith that the Government is acting sensibly (if not in our best interest then at least in the interest of its own battered reputation) and isn't acting recklessly in letting the kids back this quickly.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,058
    Alistair said:

    A friend, a university flatmate of several years, died of Covid a few days ago.

    I am probably quite sensitive to the "just open up it'll be fine" school of thought at the moment.

    And yet, off I send my child to school tomorrow.

    Sorry to hear that
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    Gaussian said:

    Floater said:

    According to the government the we're at Covid alert level 5.

    The alert levels are:

    level 1: COVID-19 is not known to be present in the UK

    level 2: COVID-19 is present in UK, but the number of cases and transmission is low

    level 3: a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation

    level 4: a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or rising exponentially

    level 5: as level 4 and there is a material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-alert-level-methodology-an-overview/uk-covid-19-alert-level-methodology-an-overview

    So we're at the highest level and there's talk of easing lockdown?

    Or we should no longer be at level 5.....
    I'd agree but a competent government would have made that move, there's an argument for level for 4 or 3.
    My guesstimate, is that tomorrow we will see the results of the studies on the effects of the vaccinations so far. This will be used to change the alert level and will be the basis of the plans going forward.

    R is currently around 1.

    However, based on the vaccination rate, and the effectiveness of vaccination, there may be enough evidence that we are going to de-couple cases from hospitalisation and deaths in the near future.

    So we can unlock, contingent on levels of vaccination..
    The decoupling will be gradual. At the moment we've vaccinated something like 50% worth of hospitalisations, at whatever efficacy a single dose of Pfizer or AZ provides, and of course the vaccines take a couple weeks to kick in as well, so the actual reduction in the hospitalisations per cases today will be some way below the headline figure.

    Cases currently are down 80% from their peak, while hospitalisations are only down around 60%. That's partly explained by lag, and maybe also partly by less serious cases now being admitted, but the point is, we're nowhere near the link between cases and hospitalisations being broken.

    Even when we get down to say 25% of the original hospitalisations per case, that still leaves plenty of scope for a NHS crisis if cases were allowed to run out of control.

    @MaxPB, how is your research into the hospitalisation rate looking?
    Yes to all of the above. To answer the question we need to know

    - How good is the first vaccination for preventing illness?
    - How good is the first vaccination at preventing transmission
    - How fast can we get everyone over 50 a first jab?
    - How fast can we get everyone over 40 a first jab?
  • Pulpstar said:

    The politics of the UK seem to determine that getting schools back on March 8th is THE most important thing in the world !
    That's going to happen. How R and the rest of unlock fits around that is where decisions have to be made.

    Yes, all of this would be a lot easier if the schools could be kept shut until after Easter, when hopefully warmer weather and a few million more vaccinations would also help. Outdoor activities are safer than classrooms and really ought to come first.

    As I said a few minutes ago, I guess we just have to have a little faith that the Government is acting sensibly (if not in our best interest then at least in the interest of its own battered reputation) and isn't acting recklessly in letting the kids back this quickly.
    I have been saying on this site for a while that secondary schools should be closed til after Easter.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Just before the LE

    Nailed on
  • Pulpstar said:

    The politics of the UK seem to determine that getting schools back on March 8th is THE most important thing in the world !
    That's going to happen. How R and the rest of unlock fits around that is where decisions have to be made.

    Yes, all of this would be a lot easier if the schools could be kept shut until after Easter, when hopefully warmer weather and a few million more vaccinations would also help. Outdoor activities are safer than classrooms and really ought to come first.

    As I said a few minutes ago, I guess we just have to have a little faith that the Government is acting sensibly (if not in our best interest then at least in the interest of its own battered reputation) and isn't acting recklessly in letting the kids back this quickly.
    I have been saying on this site for a while that secondary schools should be closed til after Easter.
    No. The NHS isn't at risk of being overloaded, there's no excuse to be screwing with education anymore.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533
    AlistairM said:

    The last week has unfortunately in my view rather scuppered things:



    We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.

    I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.

    The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?

    Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.

    And that is why infectious diseases have natural cycles: peoples' behaviour changes irrespective of government diktat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,046
    MaxPB said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
    Nor can the economy. Eventually someone has to make the fateful, near-impossible calculation: acceptable number of deaths versus unacceptable damage to the nation's economic wellbeing, which will, eventually, lead to greater human suffering, anyway.

    I agree the primary criterion should remain what it was: is the NHS going to be overwhelmed? If not, open up. Everything else is lesser.

    And in the meantime, spend some of the many billions we are already spending (£20bn on Test and Trace) on enlarging ICU capacity so we can cope with future surges, should they happen.



  • rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    The last week has unfortunately in my view rather scuppered things:



    We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.

    I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.

    The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?

    Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.

    And that is why infectious diseases have natural cycles: peoples' behaviour changes irrespective of government diktat.
    Cases have collapsed, the most vulnerable have been vaccinated and the other vulnerable are being so.

    Why would people stay at home as much anymore? Why should they?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,865

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    MaxPB said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
    The problem is that any opening at the moment will move R above 1. Which means trouble, rapidly. Because we don't have enough of the population vaccinated to prevent ICU being overwhelmed by the younger cohorts alone.

    Hence the question is where we will be with the over 50s and over 40s in the near future with respect to vaccination.

    If we can get a first shot to everyone over 40, before the effects of unlocking really kick in, then we can go for it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
  • Andy_JS said:

    Is there any chance that cases may decline exponentially from now on if the R rate keeps declining?

    The thing about exponentials is they go up very quickly but go down very slowly.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
    I doubt we're ever going to go through this again. Quite simply the edge has been taken off the pandemic already with the vaccine.

    The only thing that's really concerning is how full hospitals already are, but that's legacy now. Once they empty I doubt they'll refill again - so the best factor for steps on leaving lockdown perhaps should be hospital case numbers.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,865

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    AlistairM said:

    The last week has unfortunately in my view rather scuppered things:



    We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.

    I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.

    The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?

    Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.

    While the flattening is concerning I don’t think it’s the case that people have suddenly starting doing things they were not doing a month ago showing up in the figures (yet). If you say that symptoms take 5-10 days to emerge and these cases presented themselves 2 or 3 days ago then people will have caught the bug during the coldest snap of the year and, in many cases, under quite a bit of snow. People were indoors more between 5 and 10 February. Making more unessential trips was less desirable and less easy. The number of cases in the week and a half following have nearly flatlined. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to hypothesise that this has happened because more people were indoors at the relevant times.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,374
    OK. Lockdown opinion time:

    Having trailed schools going back, go for it, in full on March 8th, but maybe not yet colleges.

    Now - the thing the government have had in ready control, but have never done...insist Easter break should start on 1/4 until return on 19/4. Never mind that some authorities won't currently line up with that, do it blanket.

    3.5 weeks in school and then firebreak. If you've boobed and gone too early, there's relativrly little time for schools infections to accelerate. Then mid April you get another chance.

    And we should definitely open up and deregulate as much outdoor stuff as we can. Was up at the local hill today, big space, a couple of hundred people there, zero issue whatever with social distancing.

    And if all this goes well, non essential shops, hairdressers and many of the other things get a chance to open in April at a point where there is no schools transmission.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    In assessing what happens with cases after the school opening in Scotland, it'll be worth keeping this in mind:

    https://www.gov.scot/news/close-contacts-to-be-offered-testing/

    That does seem like a good idea in trying to break transmission chains, but will mean more asymptomatic and mild cases being picked up in the case numbers, so there might be arguments over how much of any increase is due to schools and how much is due to the extra testing.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,865

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
    I doubt we're ever going to go through this again. Quite simply the edge has been taken off the pandemic already with the vaccine.

    The only thing that's really concerning is how full hospitals already are, but that's legacy now. Once they empty I doubt they'll refill again - so the best factor for steps on leaving lockdown perhaps should be hospital case numbers.
    Average admissions into hospital for UK over last seven days reported (up to 17 Feb) is 1499. Seven days before that it was 1886. R=0.79
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    MaxPB said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
    If @Andy_Cooke has got his numbers right then about half of ICU patients are under 60, one quarter under 50 and one eighth under 40. The vaccination programme has gone very well so far, but there are substantial numbers of over 70s in some pockets of the country that still haven't been jabbed, and most people who've been immunised during February haven't had their three weeks yet.

    We were actually sold lockdown on the principle that the hospitals should not become overwhelmed. That remains possible. It is too soon to let rip.

    Now, I have harboured dark thoughts recently about exactly how cautious the Government is going to be, and the possibility of ministers being captured by the zero Covid zealots, and whether they might choose to stall and stall and stall. However, looking at the matter dispassionately, we MUST be fairly near to the end of this. That's not to say that 100% of the restrictions are going to evaporate by, say, July. We're probably going to be lumbered with masks, if nothing else, for quite some time, and I wouldn't be booking foreign holidays for 2021. But the worst is behind us and the end of the really debilitating restrictions - the evil ban on meeting members of your own family, along with most of the business closures - is in sight. We just need to sit tight for another 2-3 months whilst it all gradually unwinds in stages, with more and more people getting their shots in parallel.

    Being in my 40s, I'm cautiously optimistic that my mum, stepdad and shielding husband will all have had both shots by May and that I'll also have had my first, and that the stay at home instruction will be dead and buried by that point. I'm pencilling in a visit to go and see them in June on that basis, and by that point I think we'll have pretty much everything unlocked except perhaps nightclubs, even if it takes a bit longer than that to bin social distancing. The only way that gets put back any further is if the unshuttering of the schools does prove to be too ambitious and things go a bit pear-shaped which, fingers-crossed, they won't.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
  • What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,995
    Regardless of any easing of restrictions, Mrs P and I are agreed we're going nowhere until two weeks after our first vaccination. We've come this far, and a likely protection is so close, why take a personal risk now?

    I suspect many over 50s will look at it the same way.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,999
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I intend to basically relive Fresher's Week once restrictions are lifted.

    Traffic cones, be afraid.....
    I never saw the point of that.
    Sober consideration and traffic cone abuse were rare bedfellows.
    Come on Man!

    Wearing a traffic cone as a hat, then placing it on the head of a statue is always hilarious.
    I believe the statue of Aneurin Bevan on Queen Street in Cardiff must have been designed complete with a permanent traffic cone. In all the years I have known it I can't recall him not wearing one.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    rcs1000 said:

    AlistairM said:

    The last week has unfortunately in my view rather scuppered things:



    We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.

    I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.

    The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?

    Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.

    And that is why infectious diseases have natural cycles: peoples' behaviour changes irrespective of government diktat.
    It wasn’t changing much at the beginning of this month. It was far too cold.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?

    I believe, address to the Commons at 3:30 and ministerial broadcast at 7.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,996
    rcs1000 said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
    The latter.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,248
    Release all restrictions and if everyone goes back to normal, R goes to somewhere between 3 and 4.
    Doubling in 4 days or so.
    Quadrupling in 8.
    Eightfold in under a fortnight - by which time people would probably be getting worried again.

    Assume everyone over 65 or so is already immune.
    In 18 days, numbers going into ICU are higher than they were at the start of the month. All from under-65s.
    In 22 days, they’re double that.
    ICUs are still above normal 100% utilisation, and would be passing the peak again sometime between 3 and 4 weeks from now.
    All from under-60s.
    And it takes about 3 weeks from the jab to get decent protection.

    That’s why they’re not going to end this all now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,996
    MaxPB said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
    I will wait and see what Boris says at 7pm tomorrow night. But SAGE have every interest in being ultra-conservative, and the "wait until 1,000 cases a day or less" measure seems horseshit to me.

    I'd prefer a compound score of economic impact, mental health impact, deaths and hospitalisations, and social human assessments - factorised up - and that used to make the decisions.

    Crunch the numbers, tot it up, and decide.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    Release all restrictions and if everyone goes back to normal, R goes to somewhere between 3 and 4.
    Doubling in 4 days or so.
    Quadrupling in 8.
    Eightfold in under a fortnight - by which time people would probably be getting worried again.

    Assume everyone over 65 or so is already immune.
    In 18 days, numbers going into ICU are higher than they were at the start of the month. All from under-65s.
    In 22 days, they’re double that.
    ICUs are still above normal 100% utilisation, and would be passing the peak again sometime between 3 and 4 weeks from now.
    All from under-60s.
    And it takes about 3 weeks from the jab to get decent protection.

    That’s why they’re not going to end this all now.

    Yes.

    If the data on vaccination vs hospitalisations and deaths is solid, what can be done is to make a plan based on when the various groups are vaccinated.

    One annoyance with the PHE data is the grouping for admissions - somewhere in the 18-64 group is a large lower risk group....

    image

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,248
    From everything I’ve seen:

    The lowest risk on face-to-face education is primary schools. Return them on 8th of March.
    Outside interactions seem to be minimal risk. Look at doing what you can with those.
    Those 10 minute tests - IF they work - try them out. I’m not sure the best way to do them, but if entry to something is contingent on taking a reliable test and passing (socially distanced until that happens), then any event or assembly would be one where covid is excluded, so should be fine. Using these in controlled fashion while we’re rolling out the vaccines could help people stay sane.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,995
    edited February 21
    AlistairM said:

    The last week has unfortunately in my view rather scuppered things:



    We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.

    I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.

    The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?

    Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.

    Where did that graph come from @Alistair? It looks to have a lot flatter tail than the one on the official government site:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

    PS Very sorry to hear about your university friend.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398
    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,790

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
    I doubt we're ever going to go through this again. Quite simply the edge has been taken off the pandemic already with the vaccine.

    The only thing that's really concerning is how full hospitals already are, but that's legacy now. Once they empty I doubt they'll refill again - so the best factor for steps on leaving lockdown perhaps should be hospital case numbers.
    I hate to say it but going by what @Foxy says about ICUs, it will be a while yet before they start emptying and that's where the real pinch point is.

    Added to which, we need to have a fair amount of slack in the system to give everyone involved there a chance to recuperate themselves. They've been going flat out for a year.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,865

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    OK. :) Mine is much simpler than that! SUM(A1:A7)/SUM(A8:A14).

    But the main difference is between reported and specimen dates. By using specimen dates yours is more accurate but more lagged.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,172
    To return to a thought from around November time, Pfizer got their vaccine out first, it works best, they can apparently now develop it faster and are looking to make it easier to store I think, and they can provide everyone with boner pills to celebrate after this is all done - what a company!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,995

    MaxPB said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
    I will wait and see what Boris says at 7pm tomorrow night. But SAGE have every interest in being ultra-conservative, and the "wait until 1,000 cases a day or less" measure seems horseshit to me.

    I'd prefer a compound score of economic impact, mental health impact, deaths and hospitalisations, and social human assessments - factorised up - and that used to make the decisions.

    Crunch the numbers, tot it up, and decide.
    That requires either combining different measures or monetarising the value of a life. (Hint: mine's worth an awful lot... to me.)
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    OK. :) Mine is much simpler than that! SUM(A1:A7)/SUM(A8:A14).

    But the main difference is between reported and specimen dates. By using specimen dates yours is more accurate but more lagged.
    I use this formula: 'Everyone has to play it safe until June' 👍
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 389
    edited February 21

    Regardless of any easing of restrictions, Mrs P and I are agreed we're going nowhere until two weeks after our first vaccination. We've come this far, and a likely protection is so close, why take a personal risk now?

    I suspect many over 50s will look at it the same way.

    Mrs Fairliered and I are looking at it in exactly that way.
    Edit: we will be waiting 3 weeks, and not going anywhere busy until 3 weeks after our 2nd jab.
  • Voters do not trust Boris Johnson to take country out of lockdown safely, poll finds

    Boris Johnson has failed to win voters’ trust that he can take England safely out of the coronavirus lockdown, according to a new poll.

    The Savanta ComRes survey for The Independent found that fewer than a quarter (24 per cent) of people in England trust the prime minister “completely” or “a lot” to lift restrictions in a safe way, against 31 per cent who said they do not trust him to do so.

    And the poll showed voters across the UK want Mr Johnson to act cautiously in his roadmap for the return to normality, due to be set out on Monday.

    The PM is expected to confirm that he wants schools to reopen to more children on 8 March, with later relaxations of restrictions following in line with progress on Covid-19 infections, hospitalisations and vaccinations.

    But just 26 per cent of those questioned agreed that children should go back to school in early March, as the PM has suggested. A further 26 per cent said he should wait until after the Easter holidays and 38 per cent later.

    Appetite for a swift return to schools was far lower in the 18 to 44 age groups which include most parents – among whom around 40 per cent want children in classrooms by Easter – than in older age groups (61 per cent).

    And there was little appetite for any other relaxations of restrictions in the coming weeks, with just 15 per cent saying that the “rule of six” should be restored in March, to allow social gatherings of up to six people outdoors.

    Only 17 per cent backed the return of hairdressers, barbers and beauty salons, 16 per cent non-essential shops and 12 per cent pubs, cafes and restaurants next month.

    Overall, just 8 per cent of English voters said they trust Mr Johnson “completely” to take the country out of lockdown in a safe way, compared to 16 per cent who trust him “a lot”. Some 17 per cent said they did not trust him much and 14 per cent said they did not trust him at all, with 37 per cent said they were “somewhere in the middle” and 8 per cent did not know.

    The findings may reflect voters’ experience of hearing Mr Johnson say last year that he could “turn the tide” on Covid-19 in 12 weeks, encourage people to Eat Out to Help Out in the summer and then promise family reunions at Christmas, only for harsher restrictions to be imposed in three separate lockdowns.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-boris-johnson-lockdown-poll-b1804659.html

  • Overall, the poll indicated that many Britons are willing to stick with restrictions to Easter and beyond, but a clear majority want the life to be closer to normality by the summer.

    By Easter – which this year falls in early April – 45 per cent want hairdressers and beauty salons open, 43 per cent nonessential shops, 34 per cent pubs and restaurants and 29 per cent gyms and swimming pools. Some 40 per cent want the rule of six in outdoor spaces and 32 per cent in homes by Easter.

    But by the start of the summer, demand for relaxation increases dramatically, with 72 per cent wanting hairdressers and beauty salons open, 70 per cent nonessential shops, 68 per cent pubs and restaurants and 61 per cent gyms and swimming pools. By the summer, 67 per cent want to be able to gather in groups of up to six outside and 60 per cent in people’s homes.

    The poll indicated that Britain’s office workers are happy to carry on working from home for some time. Just 11 per cent of those questioned thought the return to the office should come in March, 19 per cent in April and 26 per cent by the summer. Some 19 per cent were willing to wait until the end of 2021 and 8 per cent until next year, while 4 per cent said office workers should never go back to the old pattern of travelling to their workplace.

    Perhaps surprisingly, younger age-groups were less impatient for the return of pubs, cafes and restaurants, with 32 per cent of 18-24 year-olds wanting them open by Easter, compared to 42 per cent of over-65s.

    The 25 to 34 year-old age group and Londoners were keenest to get back to the office, and over-55s were the group most likely to want shops open.

    Londoners were the most eager to meet up with friends and family, with 44 per cent saying the rule of six should be back outdoors and 35 per cent indoors by Easter, compared to 26 per cent outdoors and 25 per cent indoors in Northern Ireland.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,995
    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
  • MaxPB said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
    I will wait and see what Boris says at 7pm tomorrow night. But SAGE have every interest in being ultra-conservative, and the "wait until 1,000 cases a day or less" measure seems horseshit to me.

    I'd prefer a compound score of economic impact, mental health impact, deaths and hospitalisations, and social human assessments - factorised up - and that used to make the decisions.

    Crunch the numbers, tot it up, and decide.
    To me hospitalisations are key.

    If I'm reading it right in-hospital are now back below both the March and November peaks so that's good. In-hospital numbers seem to be dropping by about 5k per week as it stands.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 190

    AlistairM said:

    The last week has unfortunately in my view rather scuppered things:



    We had been seeing very, very good falls in cases and in the last week it has almost ground to a halt. Looking at this chart it looks as if things are going to start going upwards again. We will know for certain within a week.

    I think that people have seen all the good news recently and have started relaxing themselves and doing things that they weren't a month ago. Everyone just doing one unessential trip adds up to a massive impact.

    The other unknown still is whether cases is still the key measure given we have now vaccinated 25% of the population, the most vulnerable 25%. We have already seen in the case numbers that the oldest age groups have decreased the most. At what point does hospital admissions and deaths become more important?

    Until a week ago I think Boris was all set to open schools but now it is a more more difficult decision. If it were mere I would say that we would have liked to have opened schools but the fall in cases has stopped in the last week. We will monitor for one more week and make a decision. Everyone has to do their part by really cutting out the unnecessary trips.

    Where did that graph come from @Alistair? It looks to have a lot flatter tail than the one on the official government site:

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

    PS Very sorry to hear about your university friend.
    The chart was from an Excel sheet I maintain myself. That chart is just the plain 7 day rolling number. I just zoomed in on it a bit. This chart shows the % change in the 7 day rolling number compared with a week previously. This indicates that until recently we were seeing 25% to 30% falls in cases week on week. In the last week this has shrunk massively.



    A different Alistair had the University friend who had died, unfortunately. My condolences to him. There seem to be quite a few of us Alistairs around. I've been visiting the site regularly since about 2006 but only generally post sporadically.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
    Maybe but why would I put them at risk by potentially bring foreign strains in. Especially as my adopted daughter in holland is now pregnant, my sister in sweden has a 2 year old, my other adopted daughter who now lives in the usa has crumbling disks so medically not so good
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 389
    Although it’s not been as well publicised, some Scottish secondary school pupils are going back tomorrow - those needing to complete practical work for qualifications.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
    I doubt we're ever going to go through this again. Quite simply the edge has been taken off the pandemic already with the vaccine.

    The only thing that's really concerning is how full hospitals already are, but that's legacy now. Once they empty I doubt they'll refill again - so the best factor for steps on leaving lockdown perhaps should be hospital case numbers.
    I hate to say it but going by what @Foxy says about ICUs, it will be a while yet before they start emptying and that's where the real pinch point is.

    Added to which, we need to have a fair amount of slack in the system to give everyone involved there a chance to recuperate themselves. They've been going flat out for a year.
    Do we have good numbers on what the age point is for *hospitalisations* dropping off in a big way? I've mentioned that the PHE data is grouped by 18-64 which means we can't see where it is....

    I've seen a some data suggesting that under 45 is a pretty fair dividing point.

    So if we aim for 40+ vaccinated (at least to first vaccination) what does that give us?
  • AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
    I doubt we're ever going to go through this again. Quite simply the edge has been taken off the pandemic already with the vaccine.

    The only thing that's really concerning is how full hospitals already are, but that's legacy now. Once they empty I doubt they'll refill again - so the best factor for steps on leaving lockdown perhaps should be hospital case numbers.
    I hate to say it but going by what @Foxy says about ICUs, it will be a while yet before they start emptying and that's where the real pinch point is.

    Added to which, we need to have a fair amount of slack in the system to give everyone involved there a chance to recuperate themselves. They've been going flat out for a year.
    Yes I think that's right. Need to deal with the legacy, let that be discharged, but its not building back up now.

    At the rate its dropping by 8 March it should already be down a lot. By May should be well down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,172
    edited February 21

    What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?

    The Boris? Is his name going to become a new title for the leader, like Caesar?

    Not sure Keir will like becoming the new Boris.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
    Maybe but why would I put them at risk by potentially bring foreign strains in. Especially as my adopted daughter in holland is now pregnant, my sister in sweden has a 2 year old, my other adopted daughter who now lives in the usa has crumbling disks so medically not so good
    Not in favour of foreign holidays until 2022 minimum. Lots of nice COVID secure places to go in UK.

    Never understood the foreign holidays thing. Up until 1960 we always holidayed at home!

    #skegness
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398
    kle4 said:

    What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?

    The Boris? Is his name going to become a new title for the leader, like Caesar?

    Not sure Keir will like becoming the new Boris.
    It would save us inventing new nicknames if we could call all our pms bozo
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    *shudder* Excel translated into Java. Two abominations for the price of one.

    --AS
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
    Maybe but why would I put them at risk by potentially bring foreign strains in. Especially as my adopted daughter in holland is now pregnant, my sister in sweden has a 2 year old, my other adopted daughter who now lives in the usa has crumbling disks so medically not so good
    Not in favour of foreign holidays until 2022 minimum. Lots of nice COVID secure places to go in UK.

    Never understood the foreign holidays thing. Up until 1960 we always holidayed at home!

    #skegness
    I have 2 godchildren now I havent yet met in person and had to do it by video link
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,486

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
    Maybe but why would I put them at risk by potentially bring foreign strains in. Especially as my adopted daughter in holland is now pregnant, my sister in sweden has a 2 year old, my other adopted daughter who now lives in the usa has crumbling disks so medically not so good
    Not in favour of foreign holidays until 2022 minimum. Lots of nice COVID secure places to go in UK.

    Never understood the foreign holidays thing. Up until 1960 we always holidayed at home!

    #skegness
    The phrase "covid secure" should be removed from the general lexicon, in my opinion.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    OK. :) Mine is much simpler than that! SUM(A1:A7)/SUM(A8:A14).

    But the main difference is between reported and specimen dates. By using specimen dates yours is more accurate but more lagged.
    I think week-to-week is a decent approximation for R, with the added benefit that it cancels out the weekly testing/reporting rhythms.

    But it does rely on the assumption that passing on the virus takes an average of 7 days. If that average is less than that, R is actually closer to 1 than the week-to-week, if it's more, R is further away from 1.

    For example, if the week-to-week was 2x, and average passing on time was 2 weeks, R would be 4.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,335
    edited February 21

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    Java...java..... isn't that an instant ban hammer offence on PB....only python is allowed.

    FYI...for us geeks out there that use a lot of python / numpy, JAX absolutely rocks for fast prototyping on the GPU.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922

    Overall, the poll indicated that many Britons are willing to stick with restrictions to Easter and beyond, but a clear majority want the life to be closer to normality by the summer.

    By Easter – which this year falls in early April – 45 per cent want hairdressers and beauty salons open, 43 per cent nonessential shops, 34 per cent pubs and restaurants and 29 per cent gyms and swimming pools. Some 40 per cent want the rule of six in outdoor spaces and 32 per cent in homes by Easter.

    But by the start of the summer, demand for relaxation increases dramatically, with 72 per cent wanting hairdressers and beauty salons open, 70 per cent nonessential shops, 68 per cent pubs and restaurants and 61 per cent gyms and swimming pools. By the summer, 67 per cent want to be able to gather in groups of up to six outside and 60 per cent in people’s homes.

    The poll indicated that Britain’s office workers are happy to carry on working from home for some time. Just 11 per cent of those questioned thought the return to the office should come in March, 19 per cent in April and 26 per cent by the summer. Some 19 per cent were willing to wait until the end of 2021 and 8 per cent until next year, while 4 per cent said office workers should never go back to the old pattern of travelling to their workplace.

    Perhaps surprisingly, younger age-groups were less impatient for the return of pubs, cafes and restaurants, with 32 per cent of 18-24 year-olds wanting them open by Easter, compared to 42 per cent of over-65s.

    The 25 to 34 year-old age group and Londoners were keenest to get back to the office, and over-55s were the group most likely to want shops open.

    Londoners were the most eager to meet up with friends and family, with 44 per cent saying the rule of six should be back outdoors and 35 per cent indoors by Easter, compared to 26 per cent outdoors and 25 per cent indoors in Northern Ireland.

    I can’t square these surveys with the kind of comments about risky behaviours that we see on here in relation to case numbers. The safety first attitude picked up by the pollsters does seem consistent though.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    Looks like Jet2 will have to operate a Yorkshire Airways schedule this summer. LBA to LBA.

    Posh Yorkshire folk, such as our very own TSE, will be able to treat themselves to Alan Bennett Class.

    How unambitious. A cornucopia of exotic escapes, from St Helier all the way to Lerwick, will be available for frustrated Yorkshire millionaires to explore.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
    Maybe but why would I put them at risk by potentially bring foreign strains in. Especially as my adopted daughter in holland is now pregnant, my sister in sweden has a 2 year old, my other adopted daughter who now lives in the usa has crumbling disks so medically not so good
    Not in favour of foreign holidays until 2022 minimum. Lots of nice COVID secure places to go in UK.

    Never understood the foreign holidays thing. Up until 1960 we always holidayed at home!

    #skegness
    The phrase "covid secure" should be removed from the general lexicon, in my opinion.
    By the autumn I'd say. We should be able to live our lives by then without having to ever think about COVID again. If we can't do that then it's a huge failure IMO.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
    Maybe but why would I put them at risk by potentially bring foreign strains in. Especially as my adopted daughter in holland is now pregnant, my sister in sweden has a 2 year old, my other adopted daughter who now lives in the usa has crumbling disks so medically not so good
    We’re hoping to see my wife’s folks in the States at Thanksgiving or Christmas. That is a stretch target and we’re not putting much hope on it.
  • AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
    I doubt we're ever going to go through this again. Quite simply the edge has been taken off the pandemic already with the vaccine.

    The only thing that's really concerning is how full hospitals already are, but that's legacy now. Once they empty I doubt they'll refill again - so the best factor for steps on leaving lockdown perhaps should be hospital case numbers.
    I hate to say it but going by what @Foxy says about ICUs, it will be a while yet before they start emptying and that's where the real pinch point is.

    Added to which, we need to have a fair amount of slack in the system to give everyone involved there a chance to recuperate themselves. They've been going flat out for a year.
    Do we have good numbers on what the age point is for *hospitalisations* dropping off in a big way? I've mentioned that the PHE data is grouped by 18-64 which means we can't see where it is....

    I've seen a some data suggesting that under 45 is a pretty fair dividing point.

    So if we aim for 40+ vaccinated (at least to first vaccination) what does that give us?
    I think it's either 40 or 45, bearing in mind that this will also have some effect on R itself. That was my prediction at the start of the vaccination programme and I haven't changed my view. I think 45 is likely to be safe if the Pfizer results (on transmission) apply to other vaccines too. If vaccination rates start to really speed up in late March and April (I have never subscribed to the ramping that was going on about rates during Feb and early March) then the difference in date between vaccinating over 45s and over 40s will only be a few days.

    --AS
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    *shudder* Excel translated into Java. Two abominations for the price of one.

    --AS
    Excel has its uses. The problem is when people try and use it for things it was not intended for.

    Java is considerably better than, say C++, for maintainability or readability. For the tiny amount* of really high performance code you'll probably want to drop into CUDA and start hammering the GPUs anyway....

    *My estimate is that the number of lines of in the average investment bank quant library that really need accelerating is a few hundred. Out of several million lines of dreck....
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    Java...java..... isn't that an instant ban hammer offence on PB....only python is allowed.

    FYI...for us geeks out there that use a lot of python / numpy, JAX absolutely rocks for fast prototyping on the GPU.
    Python? I mean, it's okay if you want to pretend that you are in the Early Learning Centre...

    --AS
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398
    DougSeal said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
    Maybe but why would I put them at risk by potentially bring foreign strains in. Especially as my adopted daughter in holland is now pregnant, my sister in sweden has a 2 year old, my other adopted daughter who now lives in the usa has crumbling disks so medically not so good
    We’re hoping to see my wife’s folks in the States at Thanksgiving or Christmas. That is a stretch target and we’re not putting much hope on it.
    Mine I feel is a bit more urgent, not only do I have 2 godchildren I have yet to bless, since covid started had to keep my dutch daughter sane through a womans refuge after her ex turned violent. I need to go to her. Talking her through it isnt the same
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 517
    Can I just say, living in Wales , I dont give a flying f*ck what Boris Johnson says tomorrow, unless it's his resignation.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,790
    Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?

    The Boris? Is his name going to become a new title for the leader, like Caesar?

    Not sure Keir will like becoming the new Boris.
    It would save us inventing new nicknames if we could call all our pms bozo
    For some reason, that has started me wondering how long it will be before Mr Trump's face gets carved into that cliff. Or don't they do that nowadays?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Gaussian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    OK. :) Mine is much simpler than that! SUM(A1:A7)/SUM(A8:A14).

    But the main difference is between reported and specimen dates. By using specimen dates yours is more accurate but more lagged.
    I think week-to-week is a decent approximation for R, with the added benefit that it cancels out the weekly testing/reporting rhythms.

    But it does rely on the assumption that passing on the virus takes an average of 7 days. If that average is less than that, R is actually closer to 1 than the week-to-week, if it's more, R is further away from 1.

    For example, if the week-to-week was 2x, and average passing on time was 2 weeks, R would be 4.
    Yes which is why my formula is independent of that and works from the implied growth rate and then it's plugged into a formula that calculates an R value. The formula is based on a specific equation for calculating the R of COVID-19 that is widely used by scientists and statisticians. Though technically the best period to look at is 6.5d on 6.5d, but that's basically impossible for the likes of us.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398
    AnneJGP said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?

    The Boris? Is his name going to become a new title for the leader, like Caesar?

    Not sure Keir will like becoming the new Boris.
    It would save us inventing new nicknames if we could call all our pms bozo
    For some reason, that has started me wondering how long it will be before Mr Trump's face gets carved into that cliff. Or don't they do that nowadays?
    Perhaps they will carve it on the inside of the cliff so no one has to see it
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,335
    edited February 21

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    Java...java..... isn't that an instant ban hammer offence on PB....only python is allowed.

    FYI...for us geeks out there that use a lot of python / numpy, JAX absolutely rocks for fast prototyping on the GPU.
    Python? I mean, it's okay if you want to pretend that you are in the Early Learning Centre...

    --AS
    I was a hardcore C++ / CUDA man, but then had to start using Python in order to take advantage of the ML frameworks.

    But more recently started using JAX and it is the dogs if you want to quickly prototype some mathematical model. Handles GPU, multi-threading, batching, auto differentiation with minimal fuss. Prof Pantsdown would be well advised to take a look.....
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    DougSeal said:

    Overall, the poll indicated that many Britons are willing to stick with restrictions to Easter and beyond, but a clear majority want the life to be closer to normality by the summer.

    By Easter – which this year falls in early April – 45 per cent want hairdressers and beauty salons open, 43 per cent nonessential shops, 34 per cent pubs and restaurants and 29 per cent gyms and swimming pools. Some 40 per cent want the rule of six in outdoor spaces and 32 per cent in homes by Easter.

    But by the start of the summer, demand for relaxation increases dramatically, with 72 per cent wanting hairdressers and beauty salons open, 70 per cent nonessential shops, 68 per cent pubs and restaurants and 61 per cent gyms and swimming pools. By the summer, 67 per cent want to be able to gather in groups of up to six outside and 60 per cent in people’s homes.

    The poll indicated that Britain’s office workers are happy to carry on working from home for some time. Just 11 per cent of those questioned thought the return to the office should come in March, 19 per cent in April and 26 per cent by the summer. Some 19 per cent were willing to wait until the end of 2021 and 8 per cent until next year, while 4 per cent said office workers should never go back to the old pattern of travelling to their workplace.

    Perhaps surprisingly, younger age-groups were less impatient for the return of pubs, cafes and restaurants, with 32 per cent of 18-24 year-olds wanting them open by Easter, compared to 42 per cent of over-65s.

    The 25 to 34 year-old age group and Londoners were keenest to get back to the office, and over-55s were the group most likely to want shops open.

    Londoners were the most eager to meet up with friends and family, with 44 per cent saying the rule of six should be back outdoors and 35 per cent indoors by Easter, compared to 26 per cent outdoors and 25 per cent indoors in Northern Ireland.

    I can’t square these surveys with the kind of comments about risky behaviours that we see on here in relation to case numbers. The safety first attitude picked up by the pollsters does seem consistent though.
    It doesn't take much to go from 0.8 to 1.0. The equivalent of meeting an average of five people instead of four. Google surveillance might be able to pick that up, but otherwise you'd struggle to notice the difference.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?

    The Boris? Is his name going to become a new title for the leader, like Caesar?

    Not sure Keir will like becoming the new Boris.
    It would save us inventing new nicknames if we could call all our pms bozo
    https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1363548021535997954
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    MaxPB said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK economy is set to lose £18billion if restrictions on international travel aren't lifted before summer, according to research by an aviation group.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9284019/Britains-economy-lose-18-BILION-international-travel-restrictions-remain-place.html

    It sounds like a huge amount of money and it is....but to put that in context, thats about the cost of 1.5-2 weeks of lockdown.

    That sounds like bullshit because the UK runs a tourism deficit. If there's a ban on flights it means that UK tourism will see an absolutely massive benefit of UK tourists spending their money at home. The big losers would be cruise companies who are all registered in Panama and airlines who can be bailed out.
    It's not a zero sum game though.
    No it isn't, however, if the UK economy is fully internally open with no foreign travel possible I'd be shocked if there was anywhere near that level of damage. UK consumers have got ca. £300bn in extra savings compared to last year and everyone is in need of a holiday. My wife and I are already planning a trip to the South Wales coast for the summer because we both realise an overseas holiday is extremely unlikely at least until September or October.

    It is our third ever UK holiday in 11 years of being a couple and then married, the £2-3k we normally spend on our big annual trip will get spent in the UK this year. UK restaurants, pubs and hotels will get that money, a UK car rental company will benefit from us not being able to go overseas and I'm certain it's not an isolated case.
    Look, it'll be a terrific boon for people with hotels in Torquay and the Lake District (and they do need help!).

    Well off middle and upper class folks will be able to book themselves into nice country house hotels, and while they'll pay more than usual, they'll get nice holidays.

    But there simply isn't the capacity for average Joes to go on vacation in the UK: don't forget that Padstow was full in a typical year, even before the effective banning of foreign travel. Where there will be capacity will be in places like London, where there are hotels set up for people on the heritage trail. And I'm not sure that Steve from Sunderland wants to go to London to look at Buckingham Palace. (Although I admit I could be wrong.)
    Capacity can be increased by extending the season.

    Indeed, we seem to have visitors here already. I don’t know how or why, given the restrictions, but there are people I haven’t seen before with dogs we haven’t met before going round taking photos of stuff, not the behaviour of people who live here. Perhaps Sean isn’t the only one getting restless as the lockdown grinds on?
    And if Steve from Sunderland doesn't want to go to London, and there isn't the capacity for him in Cornwall, and he can't go to Spain, he isn't going to just not spend that money - he may not go away anywhere but he'll be enjoying his leisure time and spending his leisure money somehow in the UK. Or he may just choose to defer his time off, which would also be good for the economy.

    Even if we are allowed to go abroad, is it likely to be an attractive offer? If Europe is still locked down or mandating masks, people will think twice before going abroad eben if they can.
    I really hope we get a dry summer though...

    Personally not being able to go abroad is absolutely no inconvenience to me. I have three young children. Foreign holidays with small children are either prohibitively expensive or terrible.
    While I absolutely agree with you in principle I was meant to goto holland and sweden and northern ireland and america last year to see my daughters and sister and still want to do that this year
    I think there's a difference between visting family abroad, which will hopefully be allowed in the not too distant future and going on holiday. Who wants to visit a destination as a tourist if the restaurants, bars and tourist attractions are all closed and masks have to be worn everywhere?
    Maybe but why would I put them at risk by potentially bring foreign strains in. Especially as my adopted daughter in holland is now pregnant, my sister in sweden has a 2 year old, my other adopted daughter who now lives in the usa has crumbling disks so medically not so good
    Not in favour of foreign holidays until 2022 minimum. Lots of nice COVID secure places to go in UK.

    Never understood the foreign holidays thing. Up until 1960 we always holidayed at home!

    #skegness
    The phrase "covid secure" should be removed from the general lexicon, in my opinion.
    By the autumn I'd say. We should be able to live our lives by then without having to ever think about COVID again. If we can't do that then it's a huge failure IMO.
    I can see us being stuck with face masks for about another year. After this year's suppression of the flu, the panic about a flu spike coinciding with some additional pressure from residual Covid cases in the Winter has already been initiated. Covid is also going to hang over international travel (possibly with periodic flapping in the news about new variants) for a long time to come.

    But yes, hopefully it'll have been tamed into something that we can live with, for the most part, before the Autumn. If one of the dates mentioned in the papers - the end of July to get all adults vaccinated at least once - turns out to be an achievable target, then we should be free of nearly all the domestic apparatus of repression by the back end of August.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    In one go?

    Or remove restrictions according to a timetable as hospitalisations continue to decline?

    Because the worst of all world is one where we get rid of all the restrictions in one go, people party like it's Christmas, and then we have to go through this again.
    I doubt we're ever going to go through this again. Quite simply the edge has been taken off the pandemic already with the vaccine.

    The only thing that's really concerning is how full hospitals already are, but that's legacy now. Once they empty I doubt they'll refill again - so the best factor for steps on leaving lockdown perhaps should be hospital case numbers.
    I hate to say it but going by what @Foxy says about ICUs, it will be a while yet before they start emptying and that's where the real pinch point is.

    Added to which, we need to have a fair amount of slack in the system to give everyone involved there a chance to recuperate themselves. They've been going flat out for a year.
    Do we have good numbers on what the age point is for *hospitalisations* dropping off in a big way? I've mentioned that the PHE data is grouped by 18-64 which means we can't see where it is....

    I've seen a some data suggesting that under 45 is a pretty fair dividing point.

    So if we aim for 40+ vaccinated (at least to first vaccination) what does that give us?
    I think it's either 40 or 45, bearing in mind that this will also have some effect on R itself. That was my prediction at the start of the vaccination programme and I haven't changed my view. I think 45 is likely to be safe if the Pfizer results (on transmission) apply to other vaccines too. If vaccination rates start to really speed up in late March and April (I have never subscribed to the ramping that was going on about rates during Feb and early March) then the difference in date between vaccinating over 45s and over 40s will only be a few days.

    --AS
    Assuming that the number of under 45 vaccinated so far is pretty small, that is 12 million more first jabs, to get to all the 45+

    To 40+ is 16 million more....

    So for either it is a question of how many weeks....
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    Java...java..... isn't that an instant ban hammer offence on PB....only python is allowed.

    FYI...for us geeks out there that use a lot of python / numpy, JAX absolutely rocks for fast prototyping on the GPU.
    Python? I mean, it's okay if you want to pretend that you are in the Early Learning Centre...

    --AS
    I was a hardcore C++ / CUDA man, but then had to start using Python in order to take advantage of the ML frameworks. But more recently started using JAX and it is the dogs if you want to quickly prototype some mathematical model.
    I never had too much trouble prototyping in CUDA. But I'm a plain C man, none of this object oriented business.

    Nowadays I find it easier to direct a grad student to do the programming. And to find time on the GPU cluster. I still graph the results myself though, I have a nice touch for design...

    --AS
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    Wot?

    The UK is seeking to strengthen its economic and trade links with China after Boris Johnson stated he was “fervently Sinophile” and determined to improve ties “whatever the occasional political difficulties”.

    The prime minister’s remarks at a Downing Street roundtable with Chinese businesses are likely to infuriate backbenchers in his Conservative party who want the government to take a tougher approach to Beijing’s human rights abuses.

    Johnson also signalled that he wanted a resumption of formal trade discussions between the two countries by reactivating two forums – the Economic and Financial Dialogue, an annual discussion between the two countries, and the China-UK Joint Trade and Economic Commission (Jetco). Both had been suspended in response to China’s repression of civil rights in the former UK colony of Hong Kong


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/21/boris-johnsons-warm-words-on-china-likely-to-infuriate-backbenchers
  • Pagan2 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?

    The Boris? Is his name going to become a new title for the leader, like Caesar?

    Not sure Keir will like becoming the new Boris.
    It would save us inventing new nicknames if we could call all our pms bozo
    For some reason, that has started me wondering how long it will be before Mr Trump's face gets carved into that cliff. Or don't they do that nowadays?
    Perhaps they will carve it on the inside of the cliff so no one has to see it
    "Deep in the bowels of the earth, thousands of feet beneath Mount Rushmore in the heart of the Black Hills, the super-secret Donald P. Trumpsky Presidential Library, Memorial Crypt, Survival Bunker & Gift Shop is being hewn from the living rock." - Rush Limbaugh's last news scoop.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641

    MaxPB said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
    I will wait and see what Boris says at 7pm tomorrow night. But SAGE have every interest in being ultra-conservative, and the "wait until 1,000 cases a day or less" measure seems horseshit to me.

    I'd prefer a compound score of economic impact, mental health impact, deaths and hospitalisations, and social human assessments - factorised up - and that used to make the decisions.

    Crunch the numbers, tot it up, and decide.
    Good post. Do you think Chris will agree to that?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,042
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.

    But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.

    Contrarian will be along shortly to inform us "How VERY convenient...."
    More and more people are reflecting what @contrarian has been saying for months.

    He may or may not have been right in terms of death minimisation but he has always been bang on in terms of the unprecedented restriction of our freedoms and the danger of the scientists overreaching in this respect.
    Who ever said we weren't seeing unprecedented restriction of our freedoms? And his claim is not about scientists, it's primarily about politicians wanting to keep us in lockdown forever and it is just uninterestingly wrong.
    Correct. The guy has produced nothing but paranoia and banalities on this topic. He adds zero value. He's a troll.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,398

    Wot?

    The UK is seeking to strengthen its economic and trade links with China after Boris Johnson stated he was “fervently Sinophile” and determined to improve ties “whatever the occasional political difficulties”.

    The prime minister’s remarks at a Downing Street roundtable with Chinese businesses are likely to infuriate backbenchers in his Conservative party who want the government to take a tougher approach to Beijing’s human rights abuses.

    Johnson also signalled that he wanted a resumption of formal trade discussions between the two countries by reactivating two forums – the Economic and Financial Dialogue, an annual discussion between the two countries, and the China-UK Joint Trade and Economic Commission (Jetco). Both had been suspended in response to China’s repression of civil rights in the former UK colony of Hong Kong


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/21/boris-johnsons-warm-words-on-china-likely-to-infuriate-backbenchers

    Its the guardian however and I place less faith in their accuracy than uncyclopedia. Will wait till its on a reputable news source
  • Pagan2 said:

    kle4 said:

    What time is the Boris laying out the grand plan tomorrow?

    The Boris? Is his name going to become a new title for the leader, like Caesar?

    Not sure Keir will like becoming the new Boris.
    It would save us inventing new nicknames if we could call all our pms bozo
    https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1363548021535997954
    I believe the line in The Three Amigos was: "It's like living with a 6-year old!".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Boris will announce a reduction to Level 4 tomorrow.

    But no room for complacency. London numbers were poor today for first time in 40 days.

    Contrarian will be along shortly to inform us "How VERY convenient...."
    More and more people are reflecting what @contrarian has been saying for months.

    He may or may not have been right in terms of death minimisation but he has always been bang on in terms of the unprecedented restriction of our freedoms and the danger of the scientists overreaching in this respect.
    Who ever said we weren't seeing unprecedented restriction of our freedoms? And his claim is not about scientists, it's primarily about politicians wanting to keep us in lockdown forever and it is just uninterestingly wrong.
    Correct. The guy has produced nothing but paranoia and banalities on this topic. He adds zero value. He's a troll.
    Of so little value you feel obligated to post about it.
  • Stay alert. From April
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,865
    Gaussian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The right thing to do is to announce the steps for leaving lockdown, and the triggers - so, tier 4 to tier 3 when daily hospitalisations fall below a certain level, etc. (I'd make one exception: schools would back from Easter.)

    Personally, I would make it regional, but it may be simpler to have national triggers.

    I'm working on the assumption that it'll work very like that: a timetable for the vaccination programme, but not very much at all for coming out of the lockdown, except for the first step that we know is coming on March 8th.

    Much speculation, of course, that March 8th will include all of the schools at once, but if most or all of the secondary kids got put off until after the Easter holidays then that would be understandable. Everyone else is going to have to wait.

    Just so long as they aren't so deliberately vague that they can keep shifting the goalposts if they feel a little nervous, or else this could take way longer than it needs to.
    I would do primary schools now, but wait on secondary. Simply, it's a hell of a lot easier for teenagers to learn over zoom (if they have to) than seven year olds.
    Teenagers are suffering horribly. They NEED the socialisation (and education) as much or more than the toddlers and infants. Send them back ASAP. They have endured a year of utter shit which most adults cannot imagine
    I prefer waiting until post Easter for secondary schools. Or the R will be up to 8.

    Looks like the R is going up anyway. 😠
    But still below 1.0. It's about 0.84. Cases are still falling.
    Last 7 days have averaged 11062 cases. Previous seven days averaged 13200.
    From cases

    image
    image

    From hospitalisations

    image
    How do you calculate R?

    I calculate R as the ratio of the current seven day average over the seven day average of seven days ago as shown in my post. R is 0.84.

    I'm using data as day reported. Are you doing it by specimen date? There are pros and cons for each approach but it might explain the small difference between our stats.
    I use the formula that MaxPB came up with.

    In the original Excel form (I translated it to Java) -

    =1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(IW15:JB15)/7)/(SUM(IQ15:IV15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2

    I'm using specimen dates.
    OK. :) Mine is much simpler than that! SUM(A1:A7)/SUM(A8:A14).

    But the main difference is between reported and specimen dates. By using specimen dates yours is more accurate but more lagged.
    I think week-to-week is a decent approximation for R, with the added benefit that it cancels out the weekly testing/reporting rhythms.

    But it does rely on the assumption that passing on the virus takes an average of 7 days. If that average is less than that, R is actually closer to 1 than the week-to-week, if it's more, R is further away from 1.

    For example, if the week-to-week was 2x, and average passing on time was 2 weeks, R would be 4.
    I agree. I am assuming that passing on the virus takes an average of seven days. If it's not, then R is different in the way you describe.

    I realise I'm second guessing teams of scientists (and Malmsbury) but I just can't resist updating the daily numbers. It's part of my routine.
  • Looks like Jet2 will have to operate a Yorkshire Airways schedule this summer. LBA to LBA.

    Posh Yorkshire folk, such as our very own TSE, will be able to treat themselves to Alan Bennett Class.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQcjanPGqAA
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Don't care how "imperfect" the Covid stats are anymore.

    End the lockdown.

    Yup the moving of goal posts is unacceptable. We were sold this lockdown on the basis of vulnerable people being rapidly immunised against symptoms with vaccines and that has and is continuing to happen. By the 8th there will be 15.6m mainly older and vulnerable people that have got near total immunity to hospitalisation and death. We can't live like this any longer.
    I will wait and see what Boris says at 7pm tomorrow night. But SAGE have every interest in being ultra-conservative, and the "wait until 1,000 cases a day or less" measure seems horseshit to me.

    I'd prefer a compound score of economic impact, mental health impact, deaths and hospitalisations, and social human assessments - factorised up - and that used to make the decisions.

    Crunch the numbers, tot it up, and decide.
    Good post. Do you think Chris will agree to that?
    Nah, lockdowns mean no one ever dies of anything now. They'll call anyone who opposes it's continuation a murderer or something to that effect. I'm genuinely more worried about this than I've been in a long time. It's like they want to to keep us safe from everything, but that's not living.
This discussion has been closed.