For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings – politicalbettin
Comments
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Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening until the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection, they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. If a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.3
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This would be roughly 1 May according to my estimates.MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
So freedom for May Bank Holiday! This would be Tier 1 equivalent for hospitality, including inside. We could see quite cautious approach in the Plan.1 -
Good game tonight, like the old Liverpool team back.
Something about European football always seems to bring the best out of Liverpool - even without the fans that was good to see.0 -
I see Pochetino doing rather well too...Philip_Thompson said:Good game tonight, like the old Liverpool team back.
Something about European football always seems to bring the best out of Liverpool - even without the fans that was good to see.0 -
That makes sense. An over-excited unionistAlistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.
It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission
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This is a Paxman v Howard thing:rcs1000 said:
I grant you, I may have exaggerated slightly...Alistair said:
In what fucking planet is JK Rowling blacklisted?rcs1000 said:
It's also been enough to get JK Rowling blacklisted for views that are entirely unobjectionable.Leon said:God, the trans argument is so WEIRD.
For a start, it affects about 0.4% of the population. Less than one in two hundred. There are twice as many players of badminton.
And yet the argument is so violent, poisonous, and salient. Quite bizarre.
It should also be a source of national pride. Several western countries are now roiled by this venomous debate, but it all started here in the UK, and still derives a lot of energy from its British sources.
World beating!
What platform is she barred from?
Can she no longer publish books? Do papers no longer give her interviews?
"Did you threaten to overrule him?"0 -
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
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Probably down to two groups:MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more0 -
Under 1k is about 6 weeks from now assuming no schools, maybe never with schools. There's always going to be a level of cases with the amount of testing we're doing, what will change is that right now of 10k symptomatic cases 1k will end up being hospitalised. With vaccines that number will be more like 10k cases and 10 people in hospital.londonpubman said:
This would be roughly 1 May according to my estimates.MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
So freedom for May Bank Holiday! This would be Tier 1 equivalent for hospitality, including inside. We could see quite cautious approach in the Plan.
Rishi was right, the scientists are trying to move the goal posts and the government must stay firm on hospital capacity being the main factor on lockdown. Cases are irrelevant if they don't lead to people needing medical care.3 -
No it doesn't make sense. Who commissioned the poll has shit all to do with his point, nor does his excitement or otherwise.Leon said:
That makes sense. An over-excited unionistAlistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.
It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission0 -
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.Black_Rook said:
Probably down to two groups:MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more0 -
Possibly more evidence that gross positives are more of an indicator than NS in Cameron's caseStuartinromford said:isam said:
Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;isam said:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019
Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.
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Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.Luckyguy1983 said:
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.0 -
Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/13617594046353408040 -
Why are both the answers yes? If there's no evidence to say its real besides someone who can't get basic facts straight claiming it is, while the pollster is saying BS - then I'm inclined to trust the pollster.Luckyguy1983 said:
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.0 -
That much acclaimed Leipzig centre half who is going to Bayern had a stinkerFoxy said:
I see Pochetino doing rather well too...Philip_Thompson said:Good game tonight, like the old Liverpool team back.
Something about European football always seems to bring the best out of Liverpool - even without the fans that was good to see.
What a waste of money0 -
You might be right. He’s still defending himself stoutly.Luckyguy1983 said:
No it doesn't make sense. Who commissioned the poll has shit all to do with his point, nor does his excitement or otherwise.Leon said:
That makes sense. An over-excited unionistAlistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.
It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361695042780475394?s=21
I’ve done a hard day of knapping, I’m too tired to work out who’s right, or just not-entirely-wrong
Certainly it’s back to being very close
https://twitter.com/bizforscotland/status/1361654197314322435?s=21
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I'm assuming travel insurance companies will be requiring it or charging a huge additional premium for those who decline.CarlottaVance said:
Saga have polled their frequent cruisers who were heavily in favour. The CEO of Qantas is on the record saying that once they are widely available they'll change their conditions of carriage to require vaccination.Floater said:
I heard today at least one cruise line was going down that routeScott_xP said:0 -
As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.MaxPB said:
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.Black_Rook said:
Probably down to two groups:MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.1 -
WTF? People actually seriously take that 'microchip' thing about vaccines seriously?williamglenn said:Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/13617594046353408040 -
Misnaming the commissioner of the polling is embarrassing for the Tweeter, but doesn't make any difference his central point, nor have I seen anyone attempt to suggest on Twitter that it does.Alistair said:
Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.Luckyguy1983 said:
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
Are you saying that Comres have not applied a new weighting methodology - that they have always used this system? That would be interesting, and would show that current polling is in line with past polling.
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Maggie w IPSOSisam said:
Possibly more evidence that gross positives are more of an indicator than NS in Cameron's caseStuartinromford said:isam said:
Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;isam said:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019
Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.
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My guess is that there's a two question process.stodge said:
I prefer to start from two maxims - "Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them" and "Events, dear boy, Events".Stuartinromford said:
Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019
Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.
There are clear reasons for most changes of Government but I would suggest two key points - one, the sense the Government is not in control of events and two, the internal political collapse of the governing party.
One or both can be used to justify the changes in 1945, 1951, 1964, 1970 (to an extent), Feb 74, 1979, 1997 and 2010.
It's far too early to suggest the current Government is in either category though one could argue elements of the initial Covid response last spring suggested moments when events seemed to be in control rather than the Government.
We are three years from a GE - a lot has happened in the first third of this administration, we still have two thirds to go. Leadership change is often the way to address the internal political situation but it doesn't always work - the sense of loss of control is much harder to get back once it is in the public perception.
First- has the government done well enough to deserve another go?
(So in 2001, there was literally nothing Hague could have done differently to get a better result.)
Them- if the public are on the lookout for something new, is the opposition up to scratch?
(What saved TMay in 2017 and boosted BoJo in 2019 was the sense that Corbyn wasn't a viable alternative PM.)
So yes, it's Events. And we're about to go from a time with two Huuuge Events (Brexit and Covid) to a time with many smaller events to juggle (fallout from B + C). I'm not sure that's Johnson's style.
And as everyone said to Him Hacker, SKS is doing all right.0 -
Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.Luckyguy1983 said:
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.1 -
Should have convicted, Mitch, the man doesn't do gratitude.Floater said:3 -
Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
Weird.2 -
There is no difference between the January and February poll in how the headline figure was calculated.
It is exactly the same voting intention 6-10 in both the January and February poll.0 -
Do we know how they do the weighting in this instance?TheScreamingEagles said:
Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.Luckyguy1983 said:
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.0 -
It is the same between Jan and Feb.Benpointer said:
Do we know how they do the weighting in this instance?TheScreamingEagles said:
Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.Luckyguy1983 said:
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.0 -
She’s already self destructed once, live, on Radio 4, when one of her books was shown to be based entirely on a howling error.williamglenn said:Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804
The same book, hastily re-edited, has, btw, now blown up AGAIN
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/05/naomi-wolf-faces-new-row-book-confuses-persecution-gay-men-paedophiles/
Even without coronavirus, she’s a huge embarrassment. She should quietly retire from public life0 -
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1361796273330741251?s=21kle4 said:
Should have convicted, Mitch, the man doesn't do gratitude.Floater said:0 -
We are likely to see a wide range of speculation in the press and elsewhere up to 22 Feb, with a crescendo over the weekend. It will be like 'super Saturday' pre GE polling.MaxPB said:
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.Black_Rook said:
Probably down to two groups:MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
The position is likely to become clearer at the weekend as we get more 'steers' on what the outcome will be. Releases before Easter could be very limited. Maybe just primary schools and limited outside interaction.
1 -
I have no idea what the two lines on that graph presentisam said:
Maggie w IPSOSisam said:
Possibly more evidence that gross positives are more of an indicator than NS in Cameron's caseStuartinromford said:isam said:
Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;isam said:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019
Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.1 -
Correct, exactly the same process (likely to vote 6-10) has been used to produce the headline figure for both January and February figures.Luckyguy1983 said:
Misnaming the commissioner of the polling is embarrassing for the Tweeter, but doesn't make any difference his central point, nor have I seen anyone attempt to suggest on Twitter that it does.Alistair said:
Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.Luckyguy1983 said:
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
Are you saying that Comres have not applied a new weighting methodology - that they have always used this system? That would be interesting, and would show that current polling is in line with past polling.
I have no idea where he is getting the idea the idea the calculation has changed.1 -
If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.Mortimer said:
As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.MaxPB said:
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.Black_Rook said:
Probably down to two groups:MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.
EG I would in 3-week intervals say:
8 March - Reopen schools
29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens
19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6)
24 May* - Remove Rule of 6
* Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.2 -
I am no lockdown enthusiast, but undeniably hospitals are still under great strain. My own has more inpatients than the first wave peak, and ICU running at 150% of capacity. Few of the ICU beds are taken by the vaccine eligible, and few are making rapid progress.Black_Rook said:
Probably down to two groups:MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more0 -
Gross and Net favourables.Benpointer said:
I have no idea what the two lines on that graph presentisam said:
Maggie w IPSOSisam said:
Possibly more evidence that gross positives are more of an indicator than NS in Cameron's caseStuartinromford said:isam said:
Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;isam said:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019
Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.0 -
LOL Anna Soubry on Sky 'press review' tonight, 10.30 and 11.300
-
-
If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.Theuniondivvie said:Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
Weird.0 -
That Radio 4 interview, which I think you can stream on YouTube, was one of the funniest things ever.Leon said:
She’s already self destructed once, live, on Radio 4, when one of her books was shown to be based entirely on a howling error.williamglenn said:Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804
The same book, hastily re-edited, has, btw, now blown up AGAIN
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/05/naomi-wolf-faces-new-row-book-confuses-persecution-gay-men-paedophiles/
Even without coronavirus, she’s a huge embarrassment. She should quietly retire from public life
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uRCcEoGWxs&ab_channel=dumpbox
"I don't think any of the executions you talk about actually happened"1 -
Admit it - you've missed Trump these past few weeks.....Floater said:0 -
Very funny, also excruciatingrcs1000 said:
That Radio 4 interview, which I think you can stream on YouTube, was one of the funniest things ever.Leon said:
She’s already self destructed once, live, on Radio 4, when one of her books was shown to be based entirely on a howling error.williamglenn said:Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804
The same book, hastily re-edited, has, btw, now blown up AGAIN
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/05/naomi-wolf-faces-new-row-book-confuses-persecution-gay-men-paedophiles/
Even without coronavirus, she’s a huge embarrassment. She should quietly retire from public life
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uRCcEoGWxs&ab_channel=dumpbox
"I don't think any of the executions you talk about actually happened"0 -
2014 was a once in a generation referendum, end of conversation, Union matters are reserved to Westminster and we have a Tory majority government which could not care less what the SNP want.Foxy said:
If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.Theuniondivvie said:Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
Weird.
Sturgeon should thank herself lucky she got even one referendum, despite a re elected nationalist government in Catalonia Madrid has refused to allow them even that.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1361787655076401152?s=200 -
"DPhil, Poetry" giving batshit crazy medical advice?williamglenn said:Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804
Reminds me of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1-ip47WYWc0 -
This is quite possible - but then again we could see something completely different!Philip_Thompson said:
If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.Mortimer said:
As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.MaxPB said:
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.Black_Rook said:
Probably down to two groups:MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.
EG I would in 3-week intervals say:
8 March - Reopen schools
29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens
19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6)
24 May* - Remove Rule of 6
* Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
Labour will support lockdown for ever so Boris doesn't need to rely on the backbenchers to get the law through, but of course that would create different problems for Boris down the line.
It's a difficult balancing act which is why we are hearing so many varying outcomes at the moment. As I mentioned earlier I think we will get more consistent 'information' at the weekend.0 -
0
-
It's more common than you would imagine.kle4 said:
WTF? People actually seriously take that 'microchip' thing about vaccines seriously?williamglenn said:Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804
What's properly bonkers is that people spreading this kind of shit POST TO FACEBOOK FROM THEIR iPHONES WITH INFORMATION ABOUT LITERALLY EVERYTHING IN THEIR LIVES.
Why would Bill need to insert a microchip, when he could simply ask Mark Zuckerberg / Larry & Sergei / Tim Cook for the information?1 -
All in all, I'd say it's not as bad for Sir Keir as his falling Net Satisfaction scores make out, as I think Gross positives are probably more of a guide. If you are a NS fan, you have to say the trend is not his friend0
-
People make the mistake of saying that viruses don't operate on a timetable - that's true, but vaccines do.londonpubman said:
This is quite possible - but then again we could see something completely different!Philip_Thompson said:
If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.Mortimer said:
As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.MaxPB said:
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.Black_Rook said:
Probably down to two groups:MaxPB said:Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.
EG I would in 3-week intervals say:
8 March - Reopen schools
29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens
19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6)
24 May* - Remove Rule of 6
* Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
Labour will support lockdown for ever so Boris doesn't need to rely on the backbenchers to get the law through, but of course that would create different problems for Boris down the line.
It's a difficult balancing act which is why we are hearing so many varying outcomes at the moment. As I mentioned earlier I think we will get more consistent 'information' at the weekend.
We ought to be able to timetable progress by knowing how and when vaccines will be rolled out.
Plus once there's a date people will plan around it - there won't be too much squabbling besides from extremists that it should be a week sooner or a week later, with a reasonable decision made most people will just get on with it even if they think it should be slightly different.1 -
Remeber the rhyme
If Naomi be Klein the opinions be fine, if Naomi be Wolf opinions are Ooooof
Nicked from twitter obviously.4 -
If you’re feeling your age during lockdown, think about this guy
https://twitter.com/jamie_woodward_/status/1361784440905678856?s=213 -
Thanks for the heads up.londonpubman said:LOL Anna Soubry on Sky 'press review' tonight, 10.30 and 11.30
Netflix it is.
1 -
Sound on the Pineapple on Pizza question:
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1361798761383624704?s=200 -
Are they less than human then?Pagan2 said:
Ah but then you get the human right screechers if you cram them all into the one prison....they are too far away for family visitsPulpstar said:There are 117 prisons in the UK. ~ 0.5% of the population is trans or thereabouts. Simply assign one of the prisons' wings to be the "trans prison" ?
Every word you write on this reeks of that view.
Please stick to wibbling on about the electoral system.0 -
Of actual interest in the Comres scotland polling is the IndyRef recall problem that Scottish pollsters have.
They systemically have samples either two low or two high depending o the company, and not by a few percentage points. If Comres sample was accurate on this matter Yes won in 2014 by 60% to 40%
Other pollsters have the opposite problem with their No sample having a crushing victory.1 -
Australia holding China to account?CarlottaVance said:Two digs at the EU in one tweet:
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1361801199499026434?s=20
No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.0 -
The problem the Republican Party has is that 60% of Americans think that Trump should have been convicted by the Senate. And 60% of Republican voters think Trump is the world's greatest leader.HYUFD said:2 -
They want to have the cake of saying most Scots would still vote no in indyref II while eating the cake of not allowing indyref II.Foxy said:
If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.Theuniondivvie said:Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
Weird.1 -
Have you missed the news in recent years?dixiedean said:
Australia holding China to account?CarlottaVance said:Two digs at the EU in one tweet:
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1361801199499026434?s=20
No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.0 -
Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.CarlottaVance said:Two digs at the EU in one tweet:
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1361801199499026434?s=200 -
Which is why McConnell's inept and visibly cack-handed attempts to triangulate have all the unobtrusiveness and grace of him attempting hatha yoga in a lime green leotard in public.rcs1000 said:
The problem the Republican Party has is that 60% of Americans think that Trump should have been convicted by the Senate. And 60% of Republican voters think Trump is the world's greatest leader.HYUFD said:0 -
More New Zealand nowdixiedean said:
Australia holding China to account?CarlottaVance said:Two digs at the EU in one tweet:
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1361801199499026434?s=20
No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-10/why-china-is-falling-out-with-australia-and-allies-quicktake
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/124136962/jacinda-ardern-deflects-australiachina-comments-with-joke-about-40yearold-underarm-incident0 -
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
0 -
No. There will be a Sindyref2. It is inevitable. Enough Scots are now convinced separatists that it will happen eventually, just as it did in Quebec. Therefore I, as a unionist, take an interest in polling on such matters. Just as I take an interest in GE VI polling, even tho the GE won’t take place until 2024.Theuniondivvie said:
They want to have the cake of saying most Scots would still vote no in indyref II while eating the cake of not allowing indyref II.Foxy said:
If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.Theuniondivvie said:Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
Weird.
Same goes for Sindyref2 - despite my interest in the polling, I know it won’t happen until 2024 - the next GE at least - because the Tories won’t allow it and they are in government. It’s not quantum thermophysics
1 -
Much, much slower than my expectation.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html0 -
Duplicate.0
-
No. But the Damascene conversion Down Under is somewhat little and late. As it is here to be fair.Philip_Thompson said:
Have you missed the news in recent years?dixiedean said:
Australia holding China to account?CarlottaVance said:Two digs at the EU in one tweet:
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1361801199499026434?s=20
No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
Politicians across the West have been trumpeting and salivating at the prospects of enrichment in China for decades.
We've ridden the tiger. Now we want to dismount.0 -
Although I grant you that this year relations have soured significantly...rcs1000 said:
Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.CarlottaVance said:Two digs at the EU in one tweet:
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1361801199499026434?s=200 -
Is she the one being mocked for having to "circle back" on everything?CarlottaVance said:Sound on the Pineapple on Pizza question:
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1361798761383624704?s=20
Pizza would be a good topic for her, if so.0 -
Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.Philip_Thompson said:
Much, much slower than my expectation.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
0 -
Early fucking May for pubs and restaurants? Fuck that. Let us live or die and take our chances.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html0 -
That's the obvious way to put the issue off and to attempt to develop a potential compromise solution; whilst the Westminster parties won't accede to a proper federal solution with an English Parliament (two reasons; they don't want to split the office of Prime Minister in two in this way because they want to play with the whole train set rather than choose a half, and some of them also worry that a federation that lop-sided couldn't survive,) it may be possible to achieve a fudge that everyone can live with.Leon said:
That makes sense. An over-excited unionistAlistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.
It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission
Broadly speaking, one can envisage a situation in which Scotland is offered, and its electorate might be willing to accept, a loose confederacy with the remainder of the UK, with reserved competencies shrink to a minimal core of a common defence, foreign and trade policy, the currency, a simplified mechanism of transfer payments to replace Barnett, and little else. Most, but not all, revenue raising competencies would necessarily be devolved to Scotland as part of this process.
That would still leave Scottish MPs with the right to vote confidence and participate in a UK Government, most of the activities of which no longer affected Scotland. However, with Barnett and the resultant problem of the consequential payments thrown in the dustbin, it should be possible to pass legislation to bar Scottish MPs at Westminster from voting on anything other than reserved matters, which would provide an imperfect but workable resolution to the West Lothian Question. Any UK Government critically reliant on Scottish votes to command a Commons majority would then be required to share power with the Opposition through some formal mechanism of cohabitation, or call an election. This is similar to what already happens in some non-Westminster systems elsewhere in the world (notably in the United States and France, if voters return a President and legislature from opposing parties,) so it could also be made to work here.1 -
Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.rcs1000 said:
Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.Philip_Thompson said:
Much, much slower than my expectation.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.
So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?0 -
Tell that to Australia wine makers...rcs1000 said:
Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.CarlottaVance said:Two digs at the EU in one tweet:
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1361801199499026434?s=20
0 -
It’s also the ideal moment to finally reform the Lords into a Federal Senate, sitting in all four capitals year by year. Senators/Lords who don’t want to move could work from homeBlack_Rook said:
That's the obvious way to put the issue off and to attempt to develop a potential compromise solution; whilst the Westminster parties won't accede to a proper federal solution with an English Parliament (two reasons; they don't want to split the office of Prime Minister in two in this way because they want to play with the whole train set rather than choose a half, and some of them also worry that a federation that lop-sided couldn't survive,) it may be possible to achieve a fudge that everyone can live with.Leon said:
That makes sense. An over-excited unionistAlistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.
It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission
Broadly speaking, one can envisage a situation in which Scotland is offered, and its electorate might be willing to accept, a loose confederacy with the remainder of the UK, with reserved competencies shrink to a minimal core of a common defence, foreign and trade policy, the currency, a simplified mechanism of transfer payments to replace Barnett, and little else. Most, but not all, revenue raising competencies would necessarily be devolved to Scotland as part of this process.
That would still leave Scottish MPs with the right to vote confidence and participate in a UK Government, most of the activities of which no longer affected Scotland. However, with Barnett and the resultant problem of the consequential payments thrown in the dustbin, it should be possible to pass legislation to bar Scottish MPs at Westminster from voting on anything other than reserved matters, which would provide an imperfect but workable resolution to the West Lothian Question. Any UK Government critically reliant on Scottish votes to command a Commons majority would then be required to share power with the Opposition through some formal mechanism of cohabitation, or call an election. This is similar to what already happens in some non-Westminster systems elsewhere in the world (notably in the United States and France, if voters return a President and legislature from opposing parties,) so it could also be made to work here.0 -
Called 'L'horloge tourne'?CarlottaVance said:0 -
And quicker than mine. But this is either a complete fabrication or Government flying another kite. Needless to say we'll know more come the 22nd, although I'm not at all sure they'll be this specific with the timetabling. Maximum flexibility will be provided for stalling if they're spooked by the numbers, one would suspect.Philip_Thompson said:
Much, much slower than my expectation.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html0 -
Dr Wolf is of course the author who mistook a legal term in court records leading her to assume that a large number of people were executed when they were in fact released...williamglenn said:Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/13617594046353408040 -
Because we are now being governed by the kind of doctors who think 0.43 units of alcohol a week is the maximum allowable, to avoid unnecessary harm to health. And really, they’d prefer it if all alcohol was Prohibited.Philip_Thompson said:
Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.rcs1000 said:
Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.Philip_Thompson said:
Much, much slower than my expectation.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.
So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?0 -
They need to get beer gardens open for Easter.Philip_Thompson said:
Much, much slower than my expectation.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
And what does “no rule of six but social distancing” mean in practice? Probably very little. Would be essentially back to normal in all reality.0 -
I promise to emigrate to France and vote for him if he names the party "Laboratoire Barnier".CarlottaVance said:5 -
Has it been obtained using unweighted figures, or has everyone below '6' on the certainty to vote scale already been dropped? If the latter, these are not unweighted, they've just been subjected to a different (and possibly more conventional) methodology.TheScreamingEagles said:
Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.Luckyguy1983 said:
???Alistair said:
He got completely the wrong poll commissionerLeon said:
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow leadjustin124 said:
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?Black_Rook said:
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.justin124 said:In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.0 -
I vaguely recall her saying dumb things about exit polls at the 2019 GE.Fysics_Teacher said:
Dr Wolf is of course the author who mistook a legal term in court records leading her to assume that a large number of people were executed when they were in fact released...williamglenn said:Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/13617594046353408040 -
I suppose the benefit of being able to get into the second round on 20-25% is that many people will feel able to do a Macron themselves.CarlottaVance said:0 -
It's much too cautious. Hopefully Conservative backbenchers force a much faster timetable.Leon said:
Early fucking May for pubs and restaurants? Fuck that. Let us live or die and take our chances.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html1 -
I'm supposed to be going on holiday to Northumberland in the first week of May, postponed a year from last year.
It's going to fall into that perfect window of there's no point going because nothing's open yet, but they've lifted just enough restrictions to mean they won't refund me because of covid lockdown reasons, isn't it.0 -
Deeply moved that the guy on the right is paying homage to a great American, with a masterful portrayal of Ike on the eve of D-Day.Gardenwalker said:0 -
Or its just under promising and over delivering again.Fishing said:
It's much too cautious. Hopefully Conservative backbenchers force a much faster timetable.Leon said:
Early fucking May for pubs and restaurants? Fuck that. Let us live or die and take our chances.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html0 -
I agree.Philip_Thompson said:
Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.rcs1000 said:
Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.Philip_Thompson said:
Much, much slower than my expectation.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.
So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
Indeed, I suspect that we'll soon be able to see from Israel that one can move fairly quickly once you have a large proportion of the population vaccinated.2 -
To be fair, most of them are closet alcoholics.Leon said:
Because we are now being governed by the kind of doctors who think 0.43 units of alcohol a week is the maximum allowable, to avoid unnecessary harm to health. And really, they’d prefer it if all alcohol was Prohibited.Philip_Thompson said:
Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.rcs1000 said:
Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.Philip_Thompson said:
Much, much slower than my expectation.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.
So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?0 -
'The Mail can also reveal that office staff are expected to be told to keep working from home when the Prime Minister unveils his roadmap. He is not expected to set a firm date for when employees should return to their desks, meaning that the ‘work from home if you can’ message will continue for the foreseeable future.'londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html0 -
I am off to Northumberland in late April provided Mr Johnson doesn't block it.solarflare said:I'm supposed to be going on holiday to Northumberland in the first week of May, postponed a year from last year.
It's going to fall into that perfect window of there's no point going because nothing's open yet, but they've lifted just enough restrictions to mean they won't refund me because of covid lockdown reasons, isn't it.0 -
That being a common characteristic of politicians.kle4 said:
Or its just under promising and over delivering again.Fishing said:
It's much too cautious. Hopefully Conservative backbenchers force a much faster timetable.Leon said:
Early fucking May for pubs and restaurants? Fuck that. Let us live or die and take our chances.londonpubman said:
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html0 -
Honestly, if they take all summer to open up and then start battening down a few weeks later for autumn I will probably go insane.0
