Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening until the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection, they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. If a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
This would be roughly 1 May according to my estimates.
So freedom for May Bank Holiday! This would be Tier 1 equivalent for hospitality, including inside. We could see quite cautious approach in the Plan.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
For a start, it affects about 0.4% of the population. Less than one in two hundred. There are twice as many players of badminton.
And yet the argument is so violent, poisonous, and salient. Quite bizarre.
It should also be a source of national pride. Several western countries are now roiled by this venomous debate, but it all started here in the UK, and still derives a lot of energy from its British sources.
World beating!
It's also been enough to get JK Rowling blacklisted for views that are entirely unobjectionable.
In what fucking planet is JK Rowling blacklisted?
What platform is she barred from?
Can she no longer publish books? Do papers no longer give her interviews?
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Probably down to two groups:
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content 2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
This would be roughly 1 May according to my estimates.
So freedom for May Bank Holiday! This would be Tier 1 equivalent for hospitality, including inside. We could see quite cautious approach in the Plan.
Under 1k is about 6 weeks from now assuming no schools, maybe never with schools. There's always going to be a level of cases with the amount of testing we're doing, what will change is that right now of 10k symptomatic cases 1k will end up being hospitalised. With vaccines that number will be more like 10k cases and 10 people in hospital.
Rishi was right, the scientists are trying to move the goal posts and the government must stay firm on hospital capacity being the main factor on lockdown. Cases are irrelevant if they don't lead to people needing medical care.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Probably down to two groups:
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content 2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.
Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Why are both the answers yes? If there's no evidence to say its real besides someone who can't get basic facts straight claiming it is, while the pollster is saying BS - then I'm inclined to trust the pollster.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
I heard today at least one cruise line was going down that route
Saga have polled their frequent cruisers who were heavily in favour. The CEO of Qantas is on the record saying that once they are widely available they'll change their conditions of carriage to require vaccination.
I'm assuming travel insurance companies will be requiring it or charging a huge additional premium for those who decline.
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Probably down to two groups:
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content 2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.
Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
Misnaming the commissioner of the polling is embarrassing for the Tweeter, but doesn't make any difference his central point, nor have I seen anyone attempt to suggest on Twitter that it does.
Are you saying that Comres have not applied a new weighting methodology - that they have always used this system? That would be interesting, and would show that current polling is in line with past polling.
Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.
I prefer to start from two maxims - "Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them" and "Events, dear boy, Events".
There are clear reasons for most changes of Government but I would suggest two key points - one, the sense the Government is not in control of events and two, the internal political collapse of the governing party.
One or both can be used to justify the changes in 1945, 1951, 1964, 1970 (to an extent), Feb 74, 1979, 1997 and 2010.
It's far too early to suggest the current Government is in either category though one could argue elements of the initial Covid response last spring suggested moments when events seemed to be in control rather than the Government.
We are three years from a GE - a lot has happened in the first third of this administration, we still have two thirds to go. Leadership change is often the way to address the internal political situation but it doesn't always work - the sense of loss of control is much harder to get back once it is in the public perception.
My guess is that there's a two question process.
First- has the government done well enough to deserve another go? (So in 2001, there was literally nothing Hague could have done differently to get a better result.)
Them- if the public are on the lookout for something new, is the opposition up to scratch? (What saved TMay in 2017 and boosted BoJo in 2019 was the sense that Corbyn wasn't a viable alternative PM.)
So yes, it's Events. And we're about to go from a time with two Huuuge Events (Brexit and Covid) to a time with many smaller events to juggle (fallout from B + C). I'm not sure that's Johnson's style.
And as everyone said to Him Hacker, SKS is doing all right.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes. Weird.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
Do we know how they do the weighting in this instance?
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
Do we know how they do the weighting in this instance?
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Probably down to two groups:
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content 2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
We are likely to see a wide range of speculation in the press and elsewhere up to 22 Feb, with a crescendo over the weekend. It will be like 'super Saturday' pre GE polling.
The position is likely to become clearer at the weekend as we get more 'steers' on what the outcome will be. Releases before Easter could be very limited. Maybe just primary schools and limited outside interaction.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.
Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
Misnaming the commissioner of the polling is embarrassing for the Tweeter, but doesn't make any difference his central point, nor have I seen anyone attempt to suggest on Twitter that it does.
Are you saying that Comres have not applied a new weighting methodology - that they have always used this system? That would be interesting, and would show that current polling is in line with past polling.
Correct, exactly the same process (likely to vote 6-10) has been used to produce the headline figure for both January and February figures.
I have no idea where he is getting the idea the idea the calculation has changed.
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Probably down to two groups:
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content 2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.
Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.
It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.
EG I would in 3-week intervals say: 8 March - Reopen schools 29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens 19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6) 24 May* - Remove Rule of 6
* Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Probably down to two groups:
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content 2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
I am no lockdown enthusiast, but undeniably hospitals are still under great strain. My own has more inpatients than the first wave peak, and ICU running at 150% of capacity. Few of the ICU beds are taken by the vaccine eligible, and few are making rapid progress.
Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes. Weird.
If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.
Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes. Weird.
If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.
2014 was a once in a generation referendum, end of conversation, Union matters are reserved to Westminster and we have a Tory majority government which could not care less what the SNP want.
Sturgeon should thank herself lucky she got even one referendum, despite a re elected nationalist government in Catalonia Madrid has refused to allow them even that.
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Probably down to two groups:
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content 2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.
Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.
It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.
EG I would in 3-week intervals say: 8 March - Reopen schools 29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens 19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6) 24 May* - Remove Rule of 6
* Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
This is quite possible - but then again we could see something completely different!
Labour will support lockdown for ever so Boris doesn't need to rely on the backbenchers to get the law through, but of course that would create different problems for Boris down the line.
It's a difficult balancing act which is why we are hearing so many varying outcomes at the moment. As I mentioned earlier I think we will get more consistent 'information' at the weekend.
WTF? People actually seriously take that 'microchip' thing about vaccines seriously?
It's more common than you would imagine.
What's properly bonkers is that people spreading this kind of shit POST TO FACEBOOK FROM THEIR iPHONES WITH INFORMATION ABOUT LITERALLY EVERYTHING IN THEIR LIVES.
Why would Bill need to insert a microchip, when he could simply ask Mark Zuckerberg / Larry & Sergei / Tim Cook for the information?
All in all, I'd say it's not as bad for Sir Keir as his falling Net Satisfaction scores make out, as I think Gross positives are probably more of a guide. If you are a NS fan, you have to say the trend is not his friend
Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
Probably down to two groups:
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content 2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.
Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.
It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.
EG I would in 3-week intervals say: 8 March - Reopen schools 29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens 19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6) 24 May* - Remove Rule of 6
* Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
This is quite possible - but then again we could see something completely different!
Labour will support lockdown for ever so Boris doesn't need to rely on the backbenchers to get the law through, but of course that would create different problems for Boris down the line.
It's a difficult balancing act which is why we are hearing so many varying outcomes at the moment. As I mentioned earlier I think we will get more consistent 'information' at the weekend.
People make the mistake of saying that viruses don't operate on a timetable - that's true, but vaccines do.
We ought to be able to timetable progress by knowing how and when vaccines will be rolled out.
Plus once there's a date people will plan around it - there won't be too much squabbling besides from extremists that it should be a week sooner or a week later, with a reasonable decision made most people will just get on with it even if they think it should be slightly different.
Of actual interest in the Comres scotland polling is the IndyRef recall problem that Scottish pollsters have.
They systemically have samples either two low or two high depending o the company, and not by a few percentage points. If Comres sample was accurate on this matter Yes won in 2014 by 60% to 40%
Other pollsters have the opposite problem with their No sample having a crushing victory.
Australia holding China to account? No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC. Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
The problem the Republican Party has is that 60% of Americans think that Trump should have been convicted by the Senate. And 60% of Republican voters think Trump is the world's greatest leader.
Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes. Weird.
If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.
They want to have the cake of saying most Scots would still vote no in indyref II while eating the cake of not allowing indyref II.
Australia holding China to account? No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC. Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.
The problem the Republican Party has is that 60% of Americans think that Trump should have been convicted by the Senate. And 60% of Republican voters think Trump is the world's greatest leader.
Which is why McConnell's inept and visibly cack-handed attempts to triangulate have all the unobtrusiveness and grace of him attempting hatha yoga in a lime green leotard in public.
Australia holding China to account? No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC. Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes. Weird.
If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.
They want to have the cake of saying most Scots would still vote no in indyref II while eating the cake of not allowing indyref II.
No. There will be a Sindyref2. It is inevitable. Enough Scots are now convinced separatists that it will happen eventually, just as it did in Quebec. Therefore I, as a unionist, take an interest in polling on such matters. Just as I take an interest in GE VI polling, even tho the GE won’t take place until 2024.
Same goes for Sindyref2 - despite my interest in the polling, I know it won’t happen until 2024 - the next GE at least - because the Tories won’t allow it and they are in government. It’s not quantum thermophysics
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Australia holding China to account? No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC. Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
Have you missed the news in recent years?
No. But the Damascene conversion Down Under is somewhat little and late. As it is here to be fair. Politicians across the West have been trumpeting and salivating at the prospects of enrichment in China for decades. We've ridden the tiger. Now we want to dismount.
Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.
Although I grant you that this year relations have soured significantly...
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
That makes sense. An over-excited unionist
On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.
It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission
That's the obvious way to put the issue off and to attempt to develop a potential compromise solution; whilst the Westminster parties won't accede to a proper federal solution with an English Parliament (two reasons; they don't want to split the office of Prime Minister in two in this way because they want to play with the whole train set rather than choose a half, and some of them also worry that a federation that lop-sided couldn't survive,) it may be possible to achieve a fudge that everyone can live with.
Broadly speaking, one can envisage a situation in which Scotland is offered, and its electorate might be willing to accept, a loose confederacy with the remainder of the UK, with reserved competencies shrink to a minimal core of a common defence, foreign and trade policy, the currency, a simplified mechanism of transfer payments to replace Barnett, and little else. Most, but not all, revenue raising competencies would necessarily be devolved to Scotland as part of this process.
That would still leave Scottish MPs with the right to vote confidence and participate in a UK Government, most of the activities of which no longer affected Scotland. However, with Barnett and the resultant problem of the consequential payments thrown in the dustbin, it should be possible to pass legislation to bar Scottish MPs at Westminster from voting on anything other than reserved matters, which would provide an imperfect but workable resolution to the West Lothian Question. Any UK Government critically reliant on Scottish votes to command a Commons majority would then be required to share power with the Opposition through some formal mechanism of cohabitation, or call an election. This is similar to what already happens in some non-Westminster systems elsewhere in the world (notably in the United States and France, if voters return a President and legislature from opposing parties,) so it could also be made to work here.
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
That makes sense. An over-excited unionist
On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.
It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission
That's the obvious way to put the issue off and to attempt to develop a potential compromise solution; whilst the Westminster parties won't accede to a proper federal solution with an English Parliament (two reasons; they don't want to split the office of Prime Minister in two in this way because they want to play with the whole train set rather than choose a half, and some of them also worry that a federation that lop-sided couldn't survive,) it may be possible to achieve a fudge that everyone can live with.
Broadly speaking, one can envisage a situation in which Scotland is offered, and its electorate might be willing to accept, a loose confederacy with the remainder of the UK, with reserved competencies shrink to a minimal core of a common defence, foreign and trade policy, the currency, a simplified mechanism of transfer payments to replace Barnett, and little else. Most, but not all, revenue raising competencies would necessarily be devolved to Scotland as part of this process.
That would still leave Scottish MPs with the right to vote confidence and participate in a UK Government, most of the activities of which no longer affected Scotland. However, with Barnett and the resultant problem of the consequential payments thrown in the dustbin, it should be possible to pass legislation to bar Scottish MPs at Westminster from voting on anything other than reserved matters, which would provide an imperfect but workable resolution to the West Lothian Question. Any UK Government critically reliant on Scottish votes to command a Commons majority would then be required to share power with the Opposition through some formal mechanism of cohabitation, or call an election. This is similar to what already happens in some non-Westminster systems elsewhere in the world (notably in the United States and France, if voters return a President and legislature from opposing parties,) so it could also be made to work here.
It’s also the ideal moment to finally reform the Lords into a Federal Senate, sitting in all four capitals year by year. Senators/Lords who don’t want to move could work from home
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
And quicker than mine. But this is either a complete fabrication or Government flying another kite. Needless to say we'll know more come the 22nd, although I'm not at all sure they'll be this specific with the timetabling. Maximum flexibility will be provided for stalling if they're spooked by the numbers, one would suspect.
Dr Wolf is of course the author who mistook a legal term in court records leading her to assume that a large number of people were executed when they were in fact released...
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.
Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.
30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose. Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.
So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
Because we are now being governed by the kind of doctors who think 0.43 units of alcohol a week is the maximum allowable, to avoid unnecessary harm to health. And really, they’d prefer it if all alcohol was Prohibited.
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?
I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead
Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet
He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.
His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
???
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
Has it been obtained using unweighted figures, or has everyone below '6' on the certainty to vote scale already been dropped? If the latter, these are not unweighted, they've just been subjected to a different (and possibly more conventional) methodology.
Dr Wolf is of course the author who mistook a legal term in court records leading her to assume that a large number of people were executed when they were in fact released...
I vaguely recall her saying dumb things about exit polls at the 2019 GE.
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
I'm supposed to be going on holiday to Northumberland in the first week of May, postponed a year from last year.
It's going to fall into that perfect window of there's no point going because nothing's open yet, but they've lifted just enough restrictions to mean they won't refund me because of covid lockdown reasons, isn't it.
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.
Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.
30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose. Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.
So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
I agree.
Indeed, I suspect that we'll soon be able to see from Israel that one can move fairly quickly once you have a large proportion of the population vaccinated.
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.
Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.
30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose. Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.
So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
Because we are now being governed by the kind of doctors who think 0.43 units of alcohol a week is the maximum allowable, to avoid unnecessary harm to health. And really, they’d prefer it if all alcohol was Prohibited.
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
'The Mail can also reveal that office staff are expected to be told to keep working from home when the Prime Minister unveils his roadmap. He is not expected to set a firm date for when employees should return to their desks, meaning that the ‘work from home if you can’ message will continue for the foreseeable future.'
I'm supposed to be going on holiday to Northumberland in the first week of May, postponed a year from last year.
It's going to fall into that perfect window of there's no point going because nothing's open yet, but they've lifted just enough restrictions to mean they won't refund me because of covid lockdown reasons, isn't it.
I am off to Northumberland in late April provided Mr Johnson doesn't block it.
Daily Mail: - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools) - retail plus outside sports at Easter - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside - rule of six inside early June - no rule of six but with social distancing early July
Comments
So freedom for May Bank Holiday! This would be Tier 1 equivalent for hospitality, including inside. We could see quite cautious approach in the Plan.
Something about European football always seems to bring the best out of Liverpool - even without the fans that was good to see.
On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.
It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission
"Did you threaten to overrule him?"
I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.
The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?
The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
Rishi was right, the scientists are trying to move the goal posts and the government must stay firm on hospital capacity being the main factor on lockdown. Cases are irrelevant if they don't lead to people needing medical care.
Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804
What a waste of money
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361695042780475394?s=21
I’ve done a hard day of knapping, I’m too tired to work out who’s right, or just not-entirely-wrong
Certainly it’s back to being very close
https://twitter.com/bizforscotland/status/1361654197314322435?s=21
Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
Are you saying that Comres have not applied a new weighting methodology - that they have always used this system? That would be interesting, and would show that current polling is in line with past polling.
First- has the government done well enough to deserve another go?
(So in 2001, there was literally nothing Hague could have done differently to get a better result.)
Them- if the public are on the lookout for something new, is the opposition up to scratch?
(What saved TMay in 2017 and boosted BoJo in 2019 was the sense that Corbyn wasn't a viable alternative PM.)
So yes, it's Events. And we're about to go from a time with two Huuuge Events (Brexit and Covid) to a time with many smaller events to juggle (fallout from B + C). I'm not sure that's Johnson's style.
And as everyone said to Him Hacker, SKS is doing all right.
That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
Weird.
It is exactly the same voting intention 6-10 in both the January and February poll.
The same book, hastily re-edited, has, btw, now blown up AGAIN
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/05/naomi-wolf-faces-new-row-book-confuses-persecution-gay-men-paedophiles/
Even without coronavirus, she’s a huge embarrassment. She should quietly retire from public life
The position is likely to become clearer at the weekend as we get more 'steers' on what the outcome will be. Releases before Easter could be very limited. Maybe just primary schools and limited outside interaction.
I have no idea where he is getting the idea the idea the calculation has changed.
It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.
EG I would in 3-week intervals say:
8 March - Reopen schools
29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens
19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6)
24 May* - Remove Rule of 6
* Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uRCcEoGWxs&ab_channel=dumpbox
"I don't think any of the executions you talk about actually happened"
Sturgeon should thank herself lucky she got even one referendum, despite a re elected nationalist government in Catalonia Madrid has refused to allow them even that.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1361787655076401152?s=20
Reminds me of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1-ip47WYWc
Labour will support lockdown for ever so Boris doesn't need to rely on the backbenchers to get the law through, but of course that would create different problems for Boris down the line.
It's a difficult balancing act which is why we are hearing so many varying outcomes at the moment. As I mentioned earlier I think we will get more consistent 'information' at the weekend.
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1361801199499026434?s=20
What's properly bonkers is that people spreading this kind of shit POST TO FACEBOOK FROM THEIR iPHONES WITH INFORMATION ABOUT LITERALLY EVERYTHING IN THEIR LIVES.
Why would Bill need to insert a microchip, when he could simply ask Mark Zuckerberg / Larry & Sergei / Tim Cook for the information?
We ought to be able to timetable progress by knowing how and when vaccines will be rolled out.
Plus once there's a date people will plan around it - there won't be too much squabbling besides from extremists that it should be a week sooner or a week later, with a reasonable decision made most people will just get on with it even if they think it should be slightly different.
If Naomi be Klein the opinions be fine, if Naomi be Wolf opinions are Ooooof
Nicked from twitter obviously.
https://twitter.com/jamie_woodward_/status/1361784440905678856?s=21
Netflix it is.
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1361798761383624704?s=20
Every word you write on this reeks of that view.
Please stick to wibbling on about the electoral system.
They systemically have samples either two low or two high depending o the company, and not by a few percentage points. If Comres sample was accurate on this matter Yes won in 2014 by 60% to 40%
Other pollsters have the opposite problem with their No sample having a crushing victory.
No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-10/why-china-is-falling-out-with-australia-and-allies-quicktake
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/124136962/jacinda-ardern-deflects-australiachina-comments-with-joke-about-40yearold-underarm-incident
Daily Mail:
- relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
- retail plus outside sports at Easter
- pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
- rule of six inside early June
- no rule of six but with social distancing early July
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
Same goes for Sindyref2 - despite my interest in the polling, I know it won’t happen until 2024 - the next GE at least - because the Tories won’t allow it and they are in government. It’s not quantum thermophysics
Politicians across the West have been trumpeting and salivating at the prospects of enrichment in China for decades.
We've ridden the tiger. Now we want to dismount.
Pizza would be a good topic for her, if so.
Broadly speaking, one can envisage a situation in which Scotland is offered, and its electorate might be willing to accept, a loose confederacy with the remainder of the UK, with reserved competencies shrink to a minimal core of a common defence, foreign and trade policy, the currency, a simplified mechanism of transfer payments to replace Barnett, and little else. Most, but not all, revenue raising competencies would necessarily be devolved to Scotland as part of this process.
That would still leave Scottish MPs with the right to vote confidence and participate in a UK Government, most of the activities of which no longer affected Scotland. However, with Barnett and the resultant problem of the consequential payments thrown in the dustbin, it should be possible to pass legislation to bar Scottish MPs at Westminster from voting on anything other than reserved matters, which would provide an imperfect but workable resolution to the West Lothian Question. Any UK Government critically reliant on Scottish votes to command a Commons majority would then be required to share power with the Opposition through some formal mechanism of cohabitation, or call an election. This is similar to what already happens in some non-Westminster systems elsewhere in the world (notably in the United States and France, if voters return a President and legislature from opposing parties,) so it could also be made to work here.
30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.
So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
And what does “no rule of six but social distancing” mean in practice? Probably very little. Would be essentially back to normal in all reality.
It's going to fall into that perfect window of there's no point going because nothing's open yet, but they've lifted just enough restrictions to mean they won't refund me because of covid lockdown reasons, isn't it.
Indeed, I suspect that we'll soon be able to see from Israel that one can move fairly quickly once you have a large proportion of the population vaccinated.