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For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings – politicalbettin

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    edited February 2021
    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening until the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection, they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. If a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.
  • MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    This would be roughly 1 May according to my estimates.

    So freedom for May Bank Holiday! This would be Tier 1 equivalent for hospitality, including inside. We could see quite cautious approach in the Plan.
  • Good game tonight, like the old Liverpool team back.

    Something about European football always seems to bring the best out of Liverpool - even without the fans that was good to see.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    Good game tonight, like the old Liverpool team back.

    Something about European football always seems to bring the best out of Liverpool - even without the fans that was good to see.

    I see Pochetino doing rather well too...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    That makes sense. An over-excited unionist

    On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.

    It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission

  • rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    God, the trans argument is so WEIRD.

    For a start, it affects about 0.4% of the population. Less than one in two hundred. There are twice as many players of badminton.

    And yet the argument is so violent, poisonous, and salient. Quite bizarre.

    It should also be a source of national pride. Several western countries are now roiled by this venomous debate, but it all started here in the UK, and still derives a lot of energy from its British sources.

    World beating!

    It's also been enough to get JK Rowling blacklisted for views that are entirely unobjectionable.
    In what fucking planet is JK Rowling blacklisted?

    What platform is she barred from?

    Can she no longer publish books? Do papers no longer give her interviews?
    I grant you, I may have exaggerated slightly...
    This is a Paxman v Howard thing:

    "Did you threaten to overrule him?"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    edited February 2021
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    Probably down to two groups:

    1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
    2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866

    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    This would be roughly 1 May according to my estimates.

    So freedom for May Bank Holiday! This would be Tier 1 equivalent for hospitality, including inside. We could see quite cautious approach in the Plan.
    Under 1k is about 6 weeks from now assuming no schools, maybe never with schools. There's always going to be a level of cases with the amount of testing we're doing, what will change is that right now of 10k symptomatic cases 1k will end up being hospitalised. With vaccines that number will be more like 10k cases and 10 people in hospital.

    Rishi was right, the scientists are trying to move the goal posts and the government must stay firm on hospital capacity being the main factor on lockdown. Cases are irrelevant if they don't lead to people needing medical care.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    That makes sense. An over-excited unionist

    On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.

    It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission

    No it doesn't make sense. Who commissioned the poll has shit all to do with his point, nor does his excitement or otherwise.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866

    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    Probably down to two groups:

    1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
    2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
    Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2021

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollsters




    Do LotO's ever start off with good Positive and NS numbers as Sir Keir did, lose them in this way, then recover to become PM?
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollsters




    Do LotO's ever start off with good Positive and NS numbers as Sir Keir did, lose them in this way, then recover to become PM?
    Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.
    Possibly more evidence that gross positives are more of an indicator than NS in Cameron's case


  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
    Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.

    Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,695
    Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804
  • Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
    Why are both the answers yes? If there's no evidence to say its real besides someone who can't get basic facts straight claiming it is, while the pollster is saying BS - then I'm inclined to trust the pollster.
  • Foxy said:

    Good game tonight, like the old Liverpool team back.

    Something about European football always seems to bring the best out of Liverpool - even without the fans that was good to see.

    I see Pochetino doing rather well too...
    That much acclaimed Leipzig centre half who is going to Bayern had a stinker

    What a waste of money
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    That makes sense. An over-excited unionist

    On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.

    It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission

    No it doesn't make sense. Who commissioned the poll has shit all to do with his point, nor does his excitement or otherwise.
    You might be right. He’s still defending himself stoutly.

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361695042780475394?s=21

    I’ve done a hard day of knapping, I’m too tired to work out who’s right, or just not-entirely-wrong

    Certainly it’s back to being very close

    https://twitter.com/bizforscotland/status/1361654197314322435?s=21
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,673

    Floater said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I heard today at least one cruise line was going down that route
    Saga have polled their frequent cruisers who were heavily in favour. The CEO of Qantas is on the record saying that once they are widely available they'll change their conditions of carriage to require vaccination.
    I'm assuming travel insurance companies will be requiring it or charging a huge additional premium for those who decline.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    Probably down to two groups:

    1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
    2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
    Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
    As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.

    Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804

    WTF? People actually seriously take that 'microchip' thing about vaccines seriously?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
    Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.

    Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
    Misnaming the commissioner of the polling is embarrassing for the Tweeter, but doesn't make any difference his central point, nor have I seen anyone attempt to suggest on Twitter that it does.

    Are you saying that Comres have not applied a new weighting methodology - that they have always used this system? That would be interesting, and would show that current polling is in line with past polling.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollsters




    Do LotO's ever start off with good Positive and NS numbers as Sir Keir did, lose them in this way, then recover to become PM?
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollsters




    Do LotO's ever start off with good Positive and NS numbers as Sir Keir did, lose them in this way, then recover to become PM?
    Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.
    Possibly more evidence that gross positives are more of an indicator than NS in Cameron's case


    Maggie w IPSOS


  • stodge said:


    Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.

    I prefer to start from two maxims - "Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them" and "Events, dear boy, Events".

    There are clear reasons for most changes of Government but I would suggest two key points - one, the sense the Government is not in control of events and two, the internal political collapse of the governing party.

    One or both can be used to justify the changes in 1945, 1951, 1964, 1970 (to an extent), Feb 74, 1979, 1997 and 2010.

    It's far too early to suggest the current Government is in either category though one could argue elements of the initial Covid response last spring suggested moments when events seemed to be in control rather than the Government.

    We are three years from a GE - a lot has happened in the first third of this administration, we still have two thirds to go. Leadership change is often the way to address the internal political situation but it doesn't always work - the sense of loss of control is much harder to get back once it is in the public perception.
    My guess is that there's a two question process.

    First- has the government done well enough to deserve another go?
    (So in 2001, there was literally nothing Hague could have done differently to get a better result.)

    Them- if the public are on the lookout for something new, is the opposition up to scratch?
    (What saved TMay in 2017 and boosted BoJo in 2019 was the sense that Corbyn wasn't a viable alternative PM.)

    So yes, it's Events. And we're about to go from a time with two Huuuge Events (Brexit and Covid) to a time with many smaller events to juggle (fallout from B + C). I'm not sure that's Johnson's style.

    And as everyone said to Him Hacker, SKS is doing all right.
  • Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
    Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.

    That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Floater said:
    Should have convicted, Mitch, the man doesn't do gratitude.
  • Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
    Weird.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,673

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
    Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.

    That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
    Do we know how they do the weighting in this instance?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    There is no difference between the January and February poll in how the headline figure was calculated.

    It is exactly the same voting intention 6-10 in both the January and February poll.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
    Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.

    That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
    Do we know how they do the weighting in this instance?
    It is the same between Jan and Feb.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804

    She’s already self destructed once, live, on Radio 4, when one of her books was shown to be based entirely on a howling error.

    The same book, hastily re-edited, has, btw, now blown up AGAIN

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/05/naomi-wolf-faces-new-row-book-confuses-persecution-gay-men-paedophiles/

    Even without coronavirus, she’s a huge embarrassment. She should quietly retire from public life
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollster's




    What are the blue and orange lines - gross and net favourable?

    Yes indeed
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    Probably down to two groups:

    1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
    2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
    Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
    We are likely to see a wide range of speculation in the press and elsewhere up to 22 Feb, with a crescendo over the weekend. It will be like 'super Saturday' pre GE polling.

    The position is likely to become clearer at the weekend as we get more 'steers' on what the outcome will be. Releases before Easter could be very limited. Maybe just primary schools and limited outside interaction.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,673
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollsters




    Do LotO's ever start off with good Positive and NS numbers as Sir Keir did, lose them in this way, then recover to become PM?
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollsters




    Do LotO's ever start off with good Positive and NS numbers as Sir Keir did, lose them in this way, then recover to become PM?
    Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.
    Possibly more evidence that gross positives are more of an indicator than NS in Cameron's case


    Maggie w IPSOS


    I have no idea what the two lines on that graph present
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
    Progress Scotland use Survation to do their polling. They don't use comres.

    Saying Progress Scotland have changed their poll weighting is a failure on the launch pad.
    Misnaming the commissioner of the polling is embarrassing for the Tweeter, but doesn't make any difference his central point, nor have I seen anyone attempt to suggest on Twitter that it does.

    Are you saying that Comres have not applied a new weighting methodology - that they have always used this system? That would be interesting, and would show that current polling is in line with past polling.

    Correct, exactly the same process (likely to vote 6-10) has been used to produce the headline figure for both January and February figures.

    I have no idea where he is getting the idea the idea the calculation has changed.
  • Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    Probably down to two groups:

    1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
    2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
    Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
    As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.

    Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
    If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.

    It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.

    EG I would in 3-week intervals say:
    8 March - Reopen schools
    29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens
    19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6)
    24 May* - Remove Rule of 6

    * Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    Probably down to two groups:

    1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
    2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
    I am no lockdown enthusiast, but undeniably hospitals are still under great strain. My own has more inpatients than the first wave peak, and ICU running at 150% of capacity. Few of the ICU beds are taken by the vaccine eligible, and few are making rapid progress.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollsters




    Do LotO's ever start off with good Positive and NS numbers as Sir Keir did, lose them in this way, then recover to become PM?
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Opinium were, of course, the most accurate pollster etc etc"

    Ooer





    For all pollsters




    Do LotO's ever start off with good Positive and NS numbers as Sir Keir did, lose them in this way, then recover to become PM?
    Dunno about the starting points, but Thatcher and Cameron both went net negative before turning things round and winning;

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Basically, as a people, we're grumpy and hard to please.
    Possibly more evidence that gross positives are more of an indicator than NS in Cameron's case


    Maggie w IPSOS


    I have no idea what the two lines on that graph present
    Gross and Net favourables.
  • LOL Anna Soubry on Sky 'press review' tonight, 10.30 and 11.30
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710

    Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
    Weird.

    If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    edited February 2021
    Leon said:

    Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804

    She’s already self destructed once, live, on Radio 4, when one of her books was shown to be based entirely on a howling error.

    The same book, hastily re-edited, has, btw, now blown up AGAIN

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/05/naomi-wolf-faces-new-row-book-confuses-persecution-gay-men-paedophiles/

    Even without coronavirus, she’s a huge embarrassment. She should quietly retire from public life
    That Radio 4 interview, which I think you can stream on YouTube, was one of the funniest things ever.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uRCcEoGWxs&ab_channel=dumpbox

    "I don't think any of the executions you talk about actually happened"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    Floater said:
    Admit it - you've missed Trump these past few weeks.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804

    She’s already self destructed once, live, on Radio 4, when one of her books was shown to be based entirely on a howling error.

    The same book, hastily re-edited, has, btw, now blown up AGAIN

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/05/naomi-wolf-faces-new-row-book-confuses-persecution-gay-men-paedophiles/

    Even without coronavirus, she’s a huge embarrassment. She should quietly retire from public life
    That Radio 4 interview, which I think you can stream on YouTube, was one of the funniest things ever.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uRCcEoGWxs&ab_channel=dumpbox

    "I don't think any of the executions you talk about actually happened"
    Very funny, also excruciating
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    Foxy said:

    Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
    Weird.

    If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.
    2014 was a once in a generation referendum, end of conversation, Union matters are reserved to Westminster and we have a Tory majority government which could not care less what the SNP want.

    Sturgeon should thank herself lucky she got even one referendum, despite a re elected nationalist government in Catalonia Madrid has refused to allow them even that.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1361787655076401152?s=20
  • Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804

    "DPhil, Poetry" giving batshit crazy medical advice?

    Reminds me of this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1-ip47WYWc
  • Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    Probably down to two groups:

    1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
    2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
    Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
    As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.

    Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
    If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.

    It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.

    EG I would in 3-week intervals say:
    8 March - Reopen schools
    29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens
    19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6)
    24 May* - Remove Rule of 6

    * Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
    This is quite possible - but then again we could see something completely different!

    Labour will support lockdown for ever so Boris doesn't need to rely on the backbenchers to get the law through, but of course that would create different problems for Boris down the line.

    It's a difficult balancing act which is why we are hearing so many varying outcomes at the moment. As I mentioned earlier I think we will get more consistent 'information' at the weekend.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    edited February 2021
    kle4 said:

    Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804

    WTF? People actually seriously take that 'microchip' thing about vaccines seriously?
    It's more common than you would imagine.

    What's properly bonkers is that people spreading this kind of shit POST TO FACEBOOK FROM THEIR iPHONES WITH INFORMATION ABOUT LITERALLY EVERYTHING IN THEIR LIVES.

    Why would Bill need to insert a microchip, when he could simply ask Mark Zuckerberg / Larry & Sergei / Tim Cook for the information?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    All in all, I'd say it's not as bad for Sir Keir as his falling Net Satisfaction scores make out, as I think Gross positives are probably more of a guide. If you are a NS fan, you have to say the trend is not his friend
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Telegraph saying that scientists pressuring the government to commit to not opening ontil the infection numbers go below 1k. Hope they refuse because the vaccines are not here to stop infection,they are here to stop people going to hospital. If the hospitals are not seeing the same capacity issues as they were in November then lockdown needs to end. Of a few people have a bit of a cough for two or three days it really doesn't matter.

    Probably down to two groups:

    1. Cautious types who worry about R getting above 1 and pressure going back on the hospitals very quickly (even if the young aren't dying in vast numbers quite a lot are ending up in hospital,) along with the risk of a lot of avoidable Long Covid cases. If cases are driven down to a low enough level then they'll be content
    2. Extremists who are pushing for a Zero Covid approach (and want people to keep doing social distancing and mask wearing forever.) Cases being driven down to a low level isn't enough for them, but they'll bank the gain and push for more
    Both groups need to be resisted. This lockdown is intolerable.
    As we've discussed, this won't fly with the backbenches.

    Boris is toast if he falls for this claptrap.
    If Boris is smart he'll set a course that pleases moderate people on all sides. Set a policy of lifting lockdown in phases - to give time for people to prepare and plan for reopenings, while allowing cases to naturally come down.

    It won't satisfy the zero covid fanatics, nor the lockdownsceptics who want everything lifted at once.

    EG I would in 3-week intervals say:
    8 March - Reopen schools
    29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens
    19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6)
    24 May* - Remove Rule of 6

    * Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.
    This is quite possible - but then again we could see something completely different!

    Labour will support lockdown for ever so Boris doesn't need to rely on the backbenchers to get the law through, but of course that would create different problems for Boris down the line.

    It's a difficult balancing act which is why we are hearing so many varying outcomes at the moment. As I mentioned earlier I think we will get more consistent 'information' at the weekend.
    People make the mistake of saying that viruses don't operate on a timetable - that's true, but vaccines do.

    We ought to be able to timetable progress by knowing how and when vaccines will be rolled out.

    Plus once there's a date people will plan around it - there won't be too much squabbling besides from extremists that it should be a week sooner or a week later, with a reasonable decision made most people will just get on with it even if they think it should be slightly different.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2021
    Remeber the rhyme

    If Naomi be Klein the opinions be fine, if Naomi be Wolf opinions are Ooooof

    Nicked from twitter obviously.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    If you’re feeling your age during lockdown, think about this guy

    https://twitter.com/jamie_woodward_/status/1361784440905678856?s=21
  • LOL Anna Soubry on Sky 'press review' tonight, 10.30 and 11.30

    Thanks for the heads up.

    Netflix it is.
  • Sound on the Pineapple on Pizza question:

    https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1361798761383624704?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    Pagan2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    There are 117 prisons in the UK. ~ 0.5% of the population is trans or thereabouts. Simply assign one of the prisons' wings to be the "trans prison" ?

    Ah but then you get the human right screechers if you cram them all into the one prison....they are too far away for family visits
    Are they less than human then?

    Every word you write on this reeks of that view.

    Please stick to wibbling on about the electoral system.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Of actual interest in the Comres scotland polling is the IndyRef recall problem that Scottish pollsters have.

    They systemically have samples either two low or two high depending o the company, and not by a few percentage points. If Comres sample was accurate on this matter Yes won in 2014 by 60% to 40%

    Other pollsters have the opposite problem with their No sample having a crushing victory.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Australia holding China to account?
    No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
    Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    HYUFD said:
    The problem the Republican Party has is that 60% of Americans think that Trump should have been convicted by the Senate. And 60% of Republican voters think Trump is the world's greatest leader.
  • Foxy said:

    Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
    Weird.

    If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.
    They want to have the cake of saying most Scots would still vote no in indyref II while eating the cake of not allowing indyref II.
  • dixiedean said:

    Australia holding China to account?
    No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
    Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
    Have you missed the news in recent years?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The problem the Republican Party has is that 60% of Americans think that Trump should have been convicted by the Senate. And 60% of Republican voters think Trump is the world's greatest leader.
    Which is why McConnell's inept and visibly cack-handed attempts to triangulate have all the unobtrusiveness and grace of him attempting hatha yoga in a lime green leotard in public.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    dixiedean said:

    Australia holding China to account?
    No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
    Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
    More New Zealand now

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-10/why-china-is-falling-out-with-australia-and-allies-quicktake

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/124136962/jacinda-ardern-deflects-australiachina-comments-with-joke-about-40yearold-underarm-incident

  • Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Foxy said:

    Folk that say that BJ won't allow another indy ref seem mighty concerned about some Yoon twitterer ranting that if you squint at a certain angle a poll might actually be just for No rather than just for Yes.
    Weird.

    If the unionists genuinely believed that they are reading the tealeaves correctly, they would have no fear of Sindyref3.
    They want to have the cake of saying most Scots would still vote no in indyref II while eating the cake of not allowing indyref II.
    No. There will be a Sindyref2. It is inevitable. Enough Scots are now convinced separatists that it will happen eventually, just as it did in Quebec. Therefore I, as a unionist, take an interest in polling on such matters. Just as I take an interest in GE VI polling, even tho the GE won’t take place until 2024.

    Same goes for Sindyref2 - despite my interest in the polling, I know it won’t happen until 2024 - the next GE at least - because the Tories won’t allow it and they are in government. It’s not quantum thermophysics


  • Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Much, much slower than my expectation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    edited February 2021
    Duplicate.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    dixiedean said:

    Australia holding China to account?
    No other Western country has been more in bed with the PRC.
    Their lust for flogging off their primary products has kept Oz out of recession this century and firmly in the Chinese pocket.
    Have you missed the news in recent years?
    No. But the Damascene conversion Down Under is somewhat little and late. As it is here to be fair.
    Politicians across the West have been trumpeting and salivating at the prospects of enrichment in China for decades.
    We've ridden the tiger. Now we want to dismount.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    rcs1000 said:

    Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.
    Although I grant you that this year relations have soured significantly...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Is she the one being mocked for having to "circle back" on everything?

    Pizza would be a good topic for her, if so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Much, much slower than my expectation.
    Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Early fucking May for pubs and restaurants? Fuck that. Let us live or die and take our chances.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    That makes sense. An over-excited unionist

    On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.

    It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission

    That's the obvious way to put the issue off and to attempt to develop a potential compromise solution; whilst the Westminster parties won't accede to a proper federal solution with an English Parliament (two reasons; they don't want to split the office of Prime Minister in two in this way because they want to play with the whole train set rather than choose a half, and some of them also worry that a federation that lop-sided couldn't survive,) it may be possible to achieve a fudge that everyone can live with.

    Broadly speaking, one can envisage a situation in which Scotland is offered, and its electorate might be willing to accept, a loose confederacy with the remainder of the UK, with reserved competencies shrink to a minimal core of a common defence, foreign and trade policy, the currency, a simplified mechanism of transfer payments to replace Barnett, and little else. Most, but not all, revenue raising competencies would necessarily be devolved to Scotland as part of this process.

    That would still leave Scottish MPs with the right to vote confidence and participate in a UK Government, most of the activities of which no longer affected Scotland. However, with Barnett and the resultant problem of the consequential payments thrown in the dustbin, it should be possible to pass legislation to bar Scottish MPs at Westminster from voting on anything other than reserved matters, which would provide an imperfect but workable resolution to the West Lothian Question. Any UK Government critically reliant on Scottish votes to command a Commons majority would then be required to share power with the Opposition through some formal mechanism of cohabitation, or call an election. This is similar to what already happens in some non-Westminster systems elsewhere in the world (notably in the United States and France, if voters return a President and legislature from opposing parties,) so it could also be made to work here.
  • rcs1000 said:


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Much, much slower than my expectation.
    Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.

    Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.

    30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
    Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.

    So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Australia was probably the only Western country who publicly supported China in the US-China trade dispute, so I think you might be optimstic if you think they'll be on the side of democracy and the rule of law.
    Tell that to Australia wine makers...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    That makes sense. An over-excited unionist

    On the wider point I believe he is right, however. It’s tightening.

    It’s also academic. Boris will long grass Sindyref2 with a Royal Commission

    That's the obvious way to put the issue off and to attempt to develop a potential compromise solution; whilst the Westminster parties won't accede to a proper federal solution with an English Parliament (two reasons; they don't want to split the office of Prime Minister in two in this way because they want to play with the whole train set rather than choose a half, and some of them also worry that a federation that lop-sided couldn't survive,) it may be possible to achieve a fudge that everyone can live with.

    Broadly speaking, one can envisage a situation in which Scotland is offered, and its electorate might be willing to accept, a loose confederacy with the remainder of the UK, with reserved competencies shrink to a minimal core of a common defence, foreign and trade policy, the currency, a simplified mechanism of transfer payments to replace Barnett, and little else. Most, but not all, revenue raising competencies would necessarily be devolved to Scotland as part of this process.

    That would still leave Scottish MPs with the right to vote confidence and participate in a UK Government, most of the activities of which no longer affected Scotland. However, with Barnett and the resultant problem of the consequential payments thrown in the dustbin, it should be possible to pass legislation to bar Scottish MPs at Westminster from voting on anything other than reserved matters, which would provide an imperfect but workable resolution to the West Lothian Question. Any UK Government critically reliant on Scottish votes to command a Commons majority would then be required to share power with the Opposition through some formal mechanism of cohabitation, or call an election. This is similar to what already happens in some non-Westminster systems elsewhere in the world (notably in the United States and France, if voters return a President and legislature from opposing parties,) so it could also be made to work here.
    It’s also the ideal moment to finally reform the Lords into a Federal Senate, sitting in all four capitals year by year. Senators/Lords who don’t want to move could work from home
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Much, much slower than my expectation.
    And quicker than mine. But this is either a complete fabrication or Government flying another kite. Needless to say we'll know more come the 22nd, although I'm not at all sure they'll be this specific with the timetabling. Maximum flexibility will be provided for stalling if they're spooked by the numbers, one would suspect.
  • Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804

    Dr Wolf is of course the author who mistook a legal term in court records leading her to assume that a large number of people were executed when they were in fact released...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    rcs1000 said:


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Much, much slower than my expectation.
    Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.

    Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.

    30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
    Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.

    So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
    Because we are now being governed by the kind of doctors who think 0.43 units of alcohol a week is the maximum allowable, to avoid unnecessary harm to health. And really, they’d prefer it if all alcohol was Prohibited.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Much, much slower than my expectation.
    They need to get beer gardens open for Easter.

    And what does “no rule of six but social distancing” mean in practice? Probably very little. Would be essentially back to normal in all reality.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    edited February 2021

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    In the previous thread it was suggested that Comres has No back leading in Scotland 52% - 48%. On close inspection, however, the figures appear to relate to Feb 2020 - not Feb 2021. Why attach significance to a poll now a year old? Or has there been a typo error?

    I'm assuming it's an error, because I went to the company's website to check. They're running a monthly tracker on behalf of The Scotsman, the most recent edition of which was issued five days ago and gave a split of Yes 47, No 42, DK 10. This is something of a narrowing relative to the comparable figures for December and January, but still shows a pro-independence lead.
    So the typo relates to the headline poll figures - rather than the date given?
    No, he typed the year wrong. He believes that with consistent weighting, No now has a narrow lead

    Btw I’ve no idea if he’s right - just repeating his tweet

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361601069730643968?s=21

    He got completely the wrong poll commissioner

    https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361604515464626178?s=19

    He's compared apples to oranges and claimed the comparison is still valid because they are fruit.

    His whole thesis was predicated on Angus Robertson's chicanery.
    ???

    I don't see what you are trying to say. Or what TSE's source is trying to say is 'bullshit'.

    The question is, have Comres applied a new weighting methodology, and does this new weighting methodology give 'Yes' an advantage that the old methodology does not?

    The answers to both these questions seems to be an unequivocal yes, unless someone can show the contrary. The sloppy way this has been presented, with typos in the year, and the wrong poll commissioner, is neither here nor there.
    Very simple, he presented the result as No 52% and Yes 48%.

    That is only obtained by using the unweighted figures which is a cardinal sin in poll reporting.
    Has it been obtained using unweighted figures, or has everyone below '6' on the certainty to vote scale already been dropped? If the latter, these are not unweighted, they've just been subjected to a different (and possibly more conventional) methodology.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Another strong contender in the coronavirus self-induced reputational damage Olympics.
    https://twitter.com/naomirwolf/status/1361759404635340804

    Dr Wolf is of course the author who mistook a legal term in court records leading her to assume that a large number of people were executed when they were in fact released...
    I vaguely recall her saying dumb things about exit polls at the 2019 GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    I suppose the benefit of being able to get into the second round on 20-25% is that many people will feel able to do a Macron themselves.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    Leon said:


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Early fucking May for pubs and restaurants? Fuck that. Let us live or die and take our chances.
    It's much too cautious. Hopefully Conservative backbenchers force a much faster timetable.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    I'm supposed to be going on holiday to Northumberland in the first week of May, postponed a year from last year.

    It's going to fall into that perfect window of there's no point going because nothing's open yet, but they've lifted just enough restrictions to mean they won't refund me because of covid lockdown reasons, isn't it.
  • Deeply moved that the guy on the right is paying homage to a great American, with a masterful portrayal of Ike on the eve of D-Day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Early fucking May for pubs and restaurants? Fuck that. Let us live or die and take our chances.
    It's much too cautious. Hopefully Conservative backbenchers force a much faster timetable.
    Or its just under promising and over delivering again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    rcs1000 said:


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Much, much slower than my expectation.
    Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.

    Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.

    30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
    Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.

    So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
    I agree.

    Indeed, I suspect that we'll soon be able to see from Israel that one can move fairly quickly once you have a large proportion of the population vaccinated.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Much, much slower than my expectation.
    Hopefully the government will be guided by the numbers, and hopefully the UK will keep getting jabs in arms.

    Well yes but they already know some of the most vital numbers.

    30 April - PG1-4 two doses, PG5-9 one dose.
    Add three weeks, the next Monday is 24 May. There should be minimal risk from this point on.

    So why then wait until July to properly reopen pubs?
    Because we are now being governed by the kind of doctors who think 0.43 units of alcohol a week is the maximum allowable, to avoid unnecessary harm to health. And really, they’d prefer it if all alcohol was Prohibited.
    To be fair, most of them are closet alcoholics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    'The Mail can also reveal that office staff are expected to be told to keep working from home when the Prime Minister unveils his roadmap. He is not expected to set a firm date for when employees should return to their desks, meaning that the ‘work from home if you can’ message will continue for the foreseeable future.'
  • I'm supposed to be going on holiday to Northumberland in the first week of May, postponed a year from last year.

    It's going to fall into that perfect window of there's no point going because nothing's open yet, but they've lifted just enough restrictions to mean they won't refund me because of covid lockdown reasons, isn't it.

    I am off to Northumberland in late April provided Mr Johnson doesn't block it.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    Honestly, if they take all summer to open up and then start battening down a few weeks later for autumn I will probably go insane.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:


    Daily Mail:
    - relaxations every 4 weeks from 8 March (starting with schools)
    - retail plus outside sports at Easter
    - pubs and restaurants early May: two households inside, rule of 6 outside
    - rule of six inside early June
    - no rule of six but with social distancing early July

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9267563/Roadmap-lockdown-Blueprint-UKs-future-suggests-pubs-business-May.html

    Early fucking May for pubs and restaurants? Fuck that. Let us live or die and take our chances.
    It's much too cautious. Hopefully Conservative backbenchers force a much faster timetable.
    Or its just under promising and over delivering again.
    That being a common characteristic of politicians.
This discussion has been closed.