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Tonight’s big political bet – how many Senators will vote to impeach Trump? – politicalbetting.com
Tonight’s big political bet – how many Senators will vote to impeach Trump? – politicalbetting.com
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Let's say 50 Democrats. Plus who?
I think it might well be zero.
I think Sasse and Murkowski and others might well abstain.
Hurrah for Rotherham Titans and Sale Sharks.
Sharma with a sublime 161, and Kholi with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
What a duck though! Quack quack.
https://twitter.com/SamPalmen/status/1360511390428069889
The Indian commentators are incredibly rubbish and biased.
Mark Butcher's analysis of 'a stinker' of a decision by third umpire puts India's host commentators to shame
Star Sports colleagues seemed strangely reluctant to offer any criticism, leaving former England man to explain mistake to viewers
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/02/13/mark-butchers-analysis-stinker-decision-third-umpire-puts-indias/
I offered this opinion to husband. He wasn't amused.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s3V-sYH0Sks
https://andrewlilico.wordpress.com/2021/02/11/evidence-the-vaccines-are-having-a-significant-effect/
https://shop.tottenhamhotspur.com/product/spurs-carabao-cup-final-mug/105206
Not one I'll be betting on.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-9256639/Crystal-Palace-star-Wilfried-Zaha-says-degrading-knee-kick-off.html
I thought the NFL slogan / initiative was far better, called Inspire Change. I much more positive vision.
Answered your queries on my Tory Model on PT. Hope it's all clear.
How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump? Not enough, boom boom.
And, yes, also from PT - Mark Drakeford. I've been saying for ages that this is a politician on the up and up. Perhaps people are starting to see what I mean now.
The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl
She's not even had a sore arm...
And Drakeford won the Vaccine Four Nations, as well.
Maybe Drakeford has a shtick .... just like Boris. Mark just appears to be a bumbling, gaffe-prone, drab academic in an ill-fitting suit.
It's classic rope-a-dope, as Mark's opponents underestimate him.
"If you have something to add here, now would be the time," Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) wrote in a statement released late Friday.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/12/house-republicans-pence-trump-riot-468983
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, one of 10 House Republicans to support Donald Trump's impeachment for inciting the Capitol insurrection, pleaded with those close to the former president — and former vice president Mike Pence — to come forward and reveal what they know about Trump's conduct.
"To the patriots who were standing next to the former president as these conversations were happening, or even to the former Vice President: if you have something to add here, now would be the time," Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) wrote in a statement released late Friday, on the eve of what is expected to be the Senate's final vote in Trump's impeachment trial.
Herrera Beutler issued the statement amid a new wave of attention on a story she has been telling since last month: that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy relayed details of a phone call he had with Trump while the violent mob was ransacking the Capitol.
In Herrera Beutler's telling, McCarthy urged Trump to call off the mob, to which Trump initially responded that he couldn't because it was made up of left-wing extremists — a falsehood that has been debunked by federal investigators.
When McCarthy refuted Trump, the former president responded, "Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are," according to Herrera-Beutler.
Addendum - yours truly worked in 2018 and 2020 on behalf of Congresswoman Herrera-Beutler's Democratic challenger. She's a conservative and an evangelical, but (unfortunately for her opponent) NOT a right-wing wing-nut.
She's sure enough proved THAT in the past month.
IF there is any Republican who deserves to be included in a 21st-century re-write of "Profiles in Courage" by JFK, it is surely JHB.
She makes me proud to be a Washingtonian, and an American.
It does look a two-horse race and I'd probably be in the 52-54 range with Romney and Collins and perhaps Cheney and Murkowski the only dissenters from the pro-Trump view. As @rcs1000 opines, there may be some abstentions but it's such a clear dividing line I don't see many if any going down that route.
It's a salutary lesson parties need to lose big to change big - if you lose small you tend to change small. That of curse assumes the appetite to change exists and of course the process of change can take a long or short time depending on both internal and external factors.
The GOP lost small and is in no mood to change - it's paradoxically not that far removed from Labour after 2017 in believing they nearly won and will win next time. I suspect the GOP will have to learn the same lesson the hard way as Labour did here.
America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.
Sadly it won't happen.
Varints or vaccines?
https://twitter.com/CBarrieFans/status/1131174647331004416?s=19
There will be many difficult and unpopular decisions....and of course that is ignoring the likelihood that Boris balls up something.
https://twitter.com/scanman/status/1359717328179499019
I now wait to see what happens in Florida following their Superb Owl celebrations.
https://undark.org/2020/11/25/complicated-rise-of-eric-feigl-ding/
However, we both found this reassuring - it gave us confidence that the jab was actually performing some function.
The good news is my brother is doing okay and our other friends have improved so I do think there may be some issues for those with weakened immune systems. My brother told me he was advised the potential side effects ranged from a runny nose to death which, he opined, covered most eventualities.
Labour's leadership is far from perfect but OTOH they're not going to get much of a hearing whilst Covid continues to dominate everything. And Starmer's certainly right not to start banging on about Europe again. For most people, everything pales into insignificance compared to the restrictions and their effects; most of the population has not been directly affected by the problems with the borders and such like in any meaningful way so far; and if he picks open old wounds right now then the only message Leave voters are going to take away is that Labour is still obsessed with the EU and wants to try to undo Brexit.
Much of his party may want to scream "I told you so!" at its ex-voters up North but one suspects that Starmer is rather more interested in winning them back, thank you very much. There'll be plenty of time to do that once Covid is tamed, the Government has to start trying to put the country back together, and the Opposition can then attempt to hold it to account for its many mistakes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-56053845
Drakeford is doing worse than Carwyn Jones, Starmer is still doing better than Corbyn
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2021/01/18/the-january-welsh-political-barometer-poll-2/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_National_Assembly_for_Wales_election
55 seems almost certain. Every vote has split 55-45 hasn't it?
Even if Trump's supporters forced out a number of GOP congressmen and Senators by primary that doesn't mean all those seats will stay red. As we've seen in Georgia, mobilising the anti-Trump vote can pay dividends.
It's that simple. Ahem.
1) SKS voted for this exact deal. The fact that it was a choice only between this deal and no deal cuts no ice except with politics geeks. That's not fair but politics isn't. He voted for it.
2) Every criticism of the deal cuts at least two ways:
a) It says we were a bit dim to leave and the government is all at sea. (This is the united view of the entire establishment of course, but it isn't only Adonis, Blair and Clark who get a vote or a voice. Outside the bubble they don't have a voice at all.)
or
b) All criticism and everything wrong about the deal shows that the EU are a perfidious bunch using their undemocratic power to do their best to stitch us up with a punishment deal, when they should have allowed us a cakeist deal. The fact that they are so horrid proves it was right to leave. It takes two to tango and nice Boris did his best.
Those who think (a) can vote for Lab, LD, green and SNP. Some will vote Tory because they do. Their votes go all over the place. Those who think (b) have only one party to vote for and it isn't SKS's.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1360680391883980800?s=20
I would take a five point deficit at the moment. I think the deficit will increase. However by the summer it should be close again.
I might vote Sadiq for a change 👍
The LDs I agree will do well just to tread water
Or it would be without the wind blowing the snow off the fields onto the road. A couple of bad patches on the way into Broch (Fraserborough) on the back road, but nothing bad. The way back up the A98? Chaos. Managed to briefly beach myself on a snow pile when I had to get out of the single file track for passing traffic.
Then the fun really began. A truck that was properly stuck. Tractor comes to plow a route round it, various cars come the other way then our line of traffic goes round the truck. A mile later its all stop again as a woman turning into her farm gets beached. We all dig her off to clear the road. Then we all get stuck as the snow blasts off the field.
A couple of hours of community digging and a few moves forward and eventually someone with a tractor and bucket arrives - we get dug out and manage to go forward. Was all of a mile and a half from home at the time. Was great fun!
Labour are one of a several parties competing for key votes among the rest. Although they could be a majority of the population they are not united in terms of party (ex hypothesi) or, crucially, aim. No single vision unites them, and can't. Some want to refight. Some to complain. Some to find fault. Some to split the union. Some want to soften the effect by renegotiation. Some want to join EFTA (like me!). And so on.
SKS has real difficulties standing anywhere because the moment he does he opens up ground to the minor parties and splits his own ranks.
It is the mirror image of the recent situation for Brexiteers. Lots wanted Brexit but there were 6 different meanings to it. Remain meant only one thing. Now Brexit has one meaning only. Opposition to this Brexit government has 10 different meanings.
Some Blair quality leadership is needed urgently.
As things are we have about another 75m jabs to do to cover all willing adults, which is very roughly 3 months if we average 750k a day at reasonably efficient distribution across groups. Plus 3 weeks is early June. Several ifs but it is an encouraging image.
There may be a 2-6 months' head start on the rest of Europe if the EU does not get its own recovery in gear, that is *after* it gets its vaccine programme in gear.
Is that much of a compensation for any Brexit hits?
The Tories lead 50% to 34% in Tory holds in 2019
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/VI-2021-02-11-Observer-Data-Tables-v2.xlsx
Which is not to disagree with the point being made. But simply to say that US politics has long since ceased to even pretend that these proceedings can possibly be non-partisan.
Up against Boris, who embodies everything about delivering that vote.
Which position do you think plays best in the word of Red Wall?
Starmer's world of pain is yet to descend.
Does he fancy another go in 2024?
7 Republicans voted to convict
https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1360692317284368388?s=20