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Tonight’s big political bet – how many Senators will vote to impeach Trump? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited February 13 in General
imageTonight’s big political bet – how many Senators will vote to impeach Trump? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,497
    Test
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    Well, we know McConnell won't, so it is a bit of an irrelevancy.

    Let's say 50 Democrats. Plus who?

    I think it might well be zero.

    I think Sasse and Murkowski and others might well abstain.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 253
    OGH the Hillman Avenger.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Well, we know McConnell won't, so it is a bit of an irrelevancy.

    Let's say 50 Democrats. Plus who?

    I think it might well be zero.

    I think Sasse and Murkowski and others might well abstain.

    I think Romney will vote guilty again.
  • FPT.
    Cookie said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Dirty Scotland.

    (I do think that is a harsh red card.)

    TSE, I'll buy many daft ideas, but I don't really see you as a rugby expert.
    I love rugby union.
    I know. Me too.

    As a working class Northerner I have to keep my love and expert knowledge of union quiet as I'm in rugby league land.
    More northernwrs watch - and far, far more play - union than league.
    I know, but league fans get upset when you mention that to their faces.

    Hurrah for Rotherham Titans and Sale Sharks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    edited February 13

    Test

    India won the toss and elected to bat. 300/6 at the end of the first day.
    Sharma with a sublime 161, and Kholi with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,918
    About 10th.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,508
    Sandpit said:

    Test

    India won the toss and elected to bat. 300/6 at the end of the first day.
    Sharma with a sublime 161, and Rohit with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
    That was Kohli with the duck obviously. Rohit Sharma getting a sublime duck and a sublime 161 would be... impressive.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200

    Sandpit said:

    Test

    India won the toss and elected to bat. 300/6 at the end of the first day.
    Sharma with a sublime 161, and Rohit with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
    Virat Kohli missed a trick with his dismissal, he should have reviewed it, and the third umpire would have given it not out.
    Did that not count as one of their reviews?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,419
    56.
  • tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Test

    India won the toss and elected to bat. 300/6 at the end of the first day.
    Sharma with a sublime 161, and Rohit with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
    Virat Kohli missed a trick with his dismissal, he should have reviewed it, and the third umpire would have given it not out.
    Did that not count as one of their reviews?
    No, he didn't formally review it, he just stayed on the pitch until he saw it on the big screen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    edited February 13
    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Test

    India won the toss and elected to bat. 300/6 at the end of the first day.
    Sharma with a sublime 161, and Rohit with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
    That was Kohli with the duck obviously. Rohit Sharma getting a sublime duck and a sublime 161 would be... impressive.
    Damn, someone spotted it before I edited!
    What a duck though! Quack quack.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 90,119
    edited February 13
    The media are picking up what I warned us all about when C4 won the rights and decided to take the BCCI commentary.

    The Indian commentators are incredibly rubbish and biased.

    Mark Butcher's analysis of 'a stinker' of a decision by third umpire puts India's host commentators to shame

    Star Sports colleagues seemed strangely reluctant to offer any criticism, leaving former England man to explain mistake to viewers


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/02/13/mark-butchers-analysis-stinker-decision-third-umpire-puts-indias/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,858
    Test cricket is ideal entertainment for very elderly gentlemen. One can gently doze off in front of it for several hours and not really miss anything.

    I offered this opinion to husband. He wasn't amused.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998

    Sandpit said:

    Test

    India won the toss and elected to bat. 300/6 at the end of the first day.
    Sharma with a sublime 161, and Rohit with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
    Virat Kohli missed a trick with his dismissal, he should have reviewed it, and the third umpire would have given it not out.
    Of course, the ball definitely didn’t touch his pads.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Test

    India won the toss and elected to bat. 300/6 at the end of the first day.
    Sharma with a sublime 161, and Rohit with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
    Virat Kohli missed a trick with his dismissal, he should have reviewed it, and the third umpire would have given it not out.
    Did that not count as one of their reviews?
    No, he didn't formally review it, he just stayed on the pitch until he saw it on the big screen.
    Sometimes batsmen can be unsure, but all it needs is a glance at the square leg umpire...

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,768
    Looks like there's a decent business opportunity in setting up trips going to Israel for weddings of people you have never met. But if you hand deliver a lovely present, they will be happy to invite you....
  • tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Test

    India won the toss and elected to bat. 300/6 at the end of the first day.
    Sharma with a sublime 161, and Rohit with a sublime duck thanks to Moeen Ali.
    Virat Kohli missed a trick with his dismissal, he should have reviewed it, and the third umpire would have given it not out.
    Did that not count as one of their reviews?
    No, he didn't formally review it, he just stayed on the pitch until he saw it on the big screen.
    To be fair, there was that occasion in the first test where the wind blew the bail off.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    edited February 13

    Looks like there's a decent business opportunity in setting up trips going to Israel for weddings of people you have never met. But if you hand deliver a lovely present, they will be happy to invite you....

    You must admit "You can't enter our country unless you're going to a big event where social distancing will be impossible" is an unusual condition.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200
    Comical defending by Tottenham this evening.
  • tlg86 said:

    Comical defending by Tottenham this evening.

    They might as well give City the Carabao Cup now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200

    tlg86 said:

    Comical defending by Tottenham this evening.

    They might as well give City the Carabao Cup now.
    They still provide great comedy value:

    https://shop.tottenhamhotspur.com/product/spurs-carabao-cup-final-mug/105206
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,768
    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like there's a decent business opportunity in setting up trips going to Israel for weddings of people you have never met. But if you hand deliver a lovely present, they will be happy to invite you....

    You must admit "You can't enter our country until you're going to a big event where social distancing will be impossible" is an unusual condition.
    Super-spread the love...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,918
    Thanks, Mike.

    Not one I'll be betting on.
  • Crystal Palace star Wilfried Zaha slams football's anti-racism gestures as he insists it's 'degrading' to take the knee before kick-off and he's fed up of being used as a 'tick box' because 'charades mean nothing'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-9256639/Crystal-Palace-star-Wilfried-Zaha-says-degrading-knee-kick-off.html

    I thought the NFL slogan / initiative was far better, called Inspire Change. I much more positive vision.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,663
    edited February 13
    @BluestBlue @Richard_Tyndall @Stuartinromford

    Answered your queries on my Tory Model on PT. Hope it's all clear.

    How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump? Not enough, boom boom.

    And, yes, also from PT - Mark Drakeford. I've been saying for ages that this is a politician on the up and up. Perhaps people are starting to see what I mean now.
  • More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,953
    A young ambitious Republican senator, might see impeachment as a means to end Trump's career.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 36,093

    More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl

    How would they know, given according to the EU all supplies have been illegally redirected to perfidious Albion?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,811
    edited February 13

    More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl

    Anecdote alert. My mother had A-Z and has had no side effects other than feeling a little sleepy the next day (and even that may not have been a side effect but a reaction to leaving the house for the first time in months)

    She's not even had a sore arm...
  • In the latest Opinium poll for the Observer, the Tories have stretched their lead to 5pts, to 42% (up 3pts on a fortnight ago) while Labour are on 37% (down 1pt). Boris Johnson maintains his lead on who would be the best prime minister: 32% now select Johnson (-1) while 27% think Starmer would make the best PM (-2); 25% said neither and 16% said they don’t know.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,392
    edited February 13
    FPT



    Simon Hart getting the plaudits for vaccination success on BBC Wales News.

    And in other bad news for Welsh Labour, Scotland are favourites in Murrayfield tomorrow.

    Looks as though Welsh Labour did fine at Murrayfield, after all. :)

    And Drakeford won the Vaccine Four Nations, as well.

    Maybe Drakeford has a shtick .... just like Boris. Mark just appears to be a bumbling, gaffe-prone, drab academic in an ill-fitting suit.

    It's classic rope-a-dope, as Mark's opponents underestimate him.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,811
    Oh dear. Absolutely dreadful for Labour given the circumstances...
  • FTP Politico.com - House Republican pleads for Pence, Trump aides to speak out on Jan. 6 insurrection
    "If you have something to add here, now would be the time," Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) wrote in a statement released late Friday.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/12/house-republicans-pence-trump-riot-468983

    Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, one of 10 House Republicans to support Donald Trump's impeachment for inciting the Capitol insurrection, pleaded with those close to the former president — and former vice president Mike Pence — to come forward and reveal what they know about Trump's conduct.

    "To the patriots who were standing next to the former president as these conversations were happening, or even to the former Vice President: if you have something to add here, now would be the time," Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) wrote in a statement released late Friday, on the eve of what is expected to be the Senate's final vote in Trump's impeachment trial.

    Herrera Beutler issued the statement amid a new wave of attention on a story she has been telling since last month: that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy relayed details of a phone call he had with Trump while the violent mob was ransacking the Capitol.


    In Herrera Beutler's telling, McCarthy urged Trump to call off the mob, to which Trump initially responded that he couldn't because it was made up of left-wing extremists — a falsehood that has been debunked by federal investigators.

    When McCarthy refuted Trump, the former president responded, "Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are," according to Herrera-Beutler.

    Addendum - yours truly worked in 2018 and 2020 on behalf of Congresswoman Herrera-Beutler's Democratic challenger. She's a conservative and an evangelical, but (unfortunately for her opponent) NOT a right-wing wing-nut.

    She's sure enough proved THAT in the past month.

    IF there is any Republican who deserves to be included in a 21st-century re-write of "Profiles in Courage" by JFK, it is surely JHB.

    She makes me proud to be a Washingtonian, and an American.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,039
    Evening all :)

    It does look a two-horse race and I'd probably be in the 52-54 range with Romney and Collins and perhaps Cheney and Murkowski the only dissenters from the pro-Trump view. As @rcs1000 opines, there may be some abstentions but it's such a clear dividing line I don't see many if any going down that route.

    It's a salutary lesson parties need to lose big to change big - if you lose small you tend to change small. That of curse assumes the appetite to change exists and of course the process of change can take a long or short time depending on both internal and external factors.

    The GOP lost small and is in no mood to change - it's paradoxically not that far removed from Labour after 2017 in believing they nearly won and will win next time. I suspect the GOP will have to learn the same lesson the hard way as Labour did here.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,768

    So what have we learned? We’ve learned that, since about January 24th the deaths to hospitalisations data suggests (quite strongly) that the vaccines are having the effect one would expect if those vaccines were almost completely eliminating death amongst the vaccinated.

    https://andrewlilico.wordpress.com/2021/02/11/evidence-the-vaccines-are-having-a-significant-effect/

    Just don't tell the French and Italians.....
  • GIN1138 said:

    Oh dear. Absolutely dreadful for Labour given the circumstances...
    Time for Drakeford to be Labour leader. He has more personality than Starmer!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,858
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It does look a two-horse race and I'd probably be in the 52-54 range with Romney and Collins and perhaps Cheney and Murkowski the only dissenters from the pro-Trump view. As @rcs1000 opines, there may be some abstentions but it's such a clear dividing line I don't see many if any going down that route.

    It's a salutary lesson parties need to lose big to change big - if you lose small you tend to change small. That of curse assumes the appetite to change exists and of course the process of change can take a long or short time depending on both internal and external factors.

    The GOP lost small and is in no mood to change - it's paradoxically not that far removed from Labour after 2017 in believing they nearly won and will win next time. I suspect the GOP will have to learn the same lesson the hard way as Labour did here.

    Will the Republicans lose big next time though?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,953
    GIN1138 said:

    More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl

    Anecdote alert. My mother had A-Z and has had no side effects other than feeling a little sleepy the next day (and even that may not have been a side effect but a reaction to leaving the house for the first time in months)

    She's not even had a sore arm...
    Had an A-Z vaccine on Thursday, at time of writing no side effects.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 52,262

    More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl

    149/10,000 reported strong reactions? This doesn't pass the sniff test; it's four times higher than the rate reported in the UK.
  • RobD said:

    More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl

    149/10,000 reported strong reactions? This doesn't pass the sniff test; it's four times higher than the rate reported in the UK.
    Moaning French....
  • I would suggest the only reasonable answer to the question posed by OGH is 'Not Enough'.

    America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.

    Sadly it won't happen.
  • Starmer seeing the recent polling....

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,953
    edited February 13
    Although vaccination scheme going well, Boris if he stays will have to oversee the next have challenge, how to get the economy going again and pay for the past year, plus of course Brexit.

    There will be many difficult and unpopular decisions....and of course that is ignoring the likelihood that Boris balls up something.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,428
    I have a big interest in why Dewali and New Year didn’t make a dent in the overall decline in India’s Covid cases -



    I now wait to see what happens in Florida following their Superb Owl celebrations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 35,772
    RobD said:

    More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl

    149/10,000 reported strong reactions? This doesn't pass the sniff test; it's four times higher than the rate reported in the UK.
    It's probably genuine, but psychosomatic. If you put "Can cause dizziness" on the side of a bottle of smarties, then 5% of people will report feeling dizzy after eating the smarties.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    Finally, the thermometer is rising
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,160
    Floater said:
    And so that schoolchildren have been spreading it all along emerges as a stronger possibility....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It does look a two-horse race and I'd probably be in the 52-54 range with Romney and Collins and perhaps Cheney and Murkowski the only dissenters from the pro-Trump view. As @rcs1000 opines, there may be some abstentions but it's such a clear dividing line I don't see many if any going down that route.

    It's a salutary lesson parties need to lose big to change big - if you lose small you tend to change small. That of curse assumes the appetite to change exists and of course the process of change can take a long or short time depending on both internal and external factors.

    The GOP lost small and is in no mood to change - it's paradoxically not that far removed from Labour after 2017 in believing they nearly won and will win next time. I suspect the GOP will have to learn the same lesson the hard way as Labour did here.

    Will the Republicans lose big next time though?
    Depends if they pick Pence or Haley, in which case probably not, or Cruz or Hawley, in which case they may well do.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,428
    edited February 13
    Floater said:
    “Critics point to numerous problems. Not too long after his “holy mother of God” tweet, for example, Feigl-Ding took to Twitter to discuss a titillating but non-peer-reviewed paper that some readers interpreted as evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a lab; once the authors retracted the pre-print, he deleted a series of tweets from the middle of the thread. In March, Feigl-Ding tweeted a CDC graph as evidence that young people were “just as likely to be hospitalized as older generations,” but failed to mention an important detail about the age ranges represented in the graph’s bars, which didn’t actually support that claim. In August, he tweeted his support for a proposition to allow people early access to a vaccine. After criticism from epidemiologists, bioethicists, doctors, and health policy experts, Feigl-Ding deleted a few tweets at the beginning of his thread, saying they were “confusing” and “murky.” (He also argued that his critics were “spreading misinformation about what they think I said.”)”

    https://undark.org/2020/11/25/complicated-rise-of-eric-feigl-ding/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    edited February 13

    I would suggest the only reasonable answer to the question posed by OGH is 'Not Enough'.

    America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.

    Sadly it won't happen.

    Most of the GOP Senators will not vote to convict him though as the vast majority of GOP representatives voted against impeachment as it would split the party apart and either lead to most of them being primaried or Trump starting his own party and splitting the right in the US
  • RobDRobD Posts: 52,262
    DougSeal said:

    Floater said:
    “Critics point to numerous problems. Not too long after his “holy mother of God” tweet, for example, Feigl-Ding took to Twitter to discuss a titillating but non-peer-reviewed paper that some readers interpreted as evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a lab; once the authors retracted the pre-print, he deleted a series of tweets from the middle of the thread. In March, Feigl-Ding tweeted a CDC graph as evidence that young people were “just as likely to be hospitalized as older generations,” but failed to mention an important detail about the age ranges represented in the graph’s bars, which didn’t actually support that claim. In August, he tweeted his support for a proposition to allow people early access to a vaccine. After criticism from epidemiologists, bioethicists, doctors, and health policy experts, Feigl-Ding deleted a few tweets at the beginning of his thread, saying they were “confusing” and “murky.” (He also argued that his critics were “spreading misinformation about what they think I said.”)”

    https://undark.org/2020/11/25/complicated-rise-of-eric-feigl-ding/
    So, what's wrong with this tweet?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 3,645
    edited February 13
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 1,056
    edited February 13
    RobD said:

    More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl

    149/10,000 reported strong reactions? This doesn't pass the sniff test; it's four times higher than the rate reported in the UK.
    In my household sample of 2, 100% had side effects - very mild flu-like symptoms (and sore arms). Felt nothing on the day of the vaccine, but we were both a bit groggy for the following two days.

    However, we both found this reassuring - it gave us confidence that the jab was actually performing some function.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,039
    rcs1000 said:


    It's probably genuine, but psychosomatic. If you put "Can cause dizziness" on the side of a bottle of smarties, then 5% of people will report feeling dizzy after eating the smarties.

    I've mentioned the case of my brother and two other individuals who have all suffered a 3-4 day reaction to the AZ vaccine. The common factor is all have weakened immune systems as a result of pre-existing health conditions including for example those who have had chemotherapy.

    The good news is my brother is doing okay and our other friends have improved so I do think there may be some issues for those with weakened immune systems. My brother told me he was advised the potential side effects ranged from a runny nose to death which, he opined, covered most eventualities.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,858
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh dear. Absolutely dreadful for Labour given the circumstances...
    Probably not a cause for panic though. It's the vaccine effect, and all that's happening is that the Conservatives are getting back to the consistent modest leads that they enjoyed when everything felt more normal last Summer and Sunak was dishing out his cut-price dinners.

    Labour's leadership is far from perfect but OTOH they're not going to get much of a hearing whilst Covid continues to dominate everything. And Starmer's certainly right not to start banging on about Europe again. For most people, everything pales into insignificance compared to the restrictions and their effects; most of the population has not been directly affected by the problems with the borders and such like in any meaningful way so far; and if he picks open old wounds right now then the only message Leave voters are going to take away is that Labour is still obsessed with the EU and wants to try to undo Brexit.

    Much of his party may want to scream "I told you so!" at its ex-voters up North but one suspects that Starmer is rather more interested in winning them back, thank you very much. There'll be plenty of time to do that once Covid is tamed, the Government has to start trying to put the country back together, and the Opposition can then attempt to hold it to account for its many mistakes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,768
    HYUFD said:
    This does support the trend - Tories up, Labour falling back.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,428
    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:
    And so that schoolchildren have been spreading it all along emerges as a stronger possibility....
    Terrible for us oldies but for the much younger generation being exposed to the virus but not being effected in any real way will help the virus shrink down to low level endemic, common cold, type status in the future. It’s quite possible that many of them had it last term and won’t get it again.
  • BBC News - Covid: South Africa variant found in Hampshire village
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-56053845
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    edited February 13

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh dear. Absolutely dreadful for Labour given the circumstances...
    Time for Drakeford to be Labour leader. He has more personality than Starmer!
    On the latest Welsh poll Drakeford's Labour will lose 3 seats to the Tories and Plaid in May's Senedd elections.

    Drakeford is doing worse than Carwyn Jones, Starmer is still doing better than Corbyn

    https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2021/01/18/the-january-welsh-political-barometer-poll-2/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_National_Assembly_for_Wales_election
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 6,858

    BBC News - Covid: South Africa variant found in Hampshire village
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-56053845

    I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
  • 55-59 seems value.

    55 seems almost certain. Every vote has split 55-45 hasn't it?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,428
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Floater said:
    “Critics point to numerous problems. Not too long after his “holy mother of God” tweet, for example, Feigl-Ding took to Twitter to discuss a titillating but non-peer-reviewed paper that some readers interpreted as evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a lab; once the authors retracted the pre-print, he deleted a series of tweets from the middle of the thread. In March, Feigl-Ding tweeted a CDC graph as evidence that young people were “just as likely to be hospitalized as older generations,” but failed to mention an important detail about the age ranges represented in the graph’s bars, which didn’t actually support that claim. In August, he tweeted his support for a proposition to allow people early access to a vaccine. After criticism from epidemiologists, bioethicists, doctors, and health policy experts, Feigl-Ding deleted a few tweets at the beginning of his thread, saying they were “confusing” and “murky.” (He also argued that his critics were “spreading misinformation about what they think I said.”)”

    https://undark.org/2020/11/25/complicated-rise-of-eric-feigl-ding/
    So, what's wrong with this tweet?
    In and of itself, maybe nothing, but in the context of a man who previously tried to claim that young people were as likely to be hospitalised with Covid as older people I think it reasonable to point out that he has alarmist tendencies in the way he spins (and occasionally makes things up) so I think everything he says has to be treated with caution. But stopped clocks and all that...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,051
    RobD said:

    More negative media coverage of AZN vaccine...

    The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is getting the thumbs down from doctors in France and Italy who are suffering side effects and claim it is less effective than other vaccines

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/european-doctors-shun-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-amid-reports-of-side-effects-fm908k2bl

    149/10,000 reported strong reactions? This doesn't pass the sniff test; it's four times higher than the rate reported in the UK.
    Or an illustration of the placebo effect: negative perception influenced by media stories driving a higher reporting rate.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,039
    HYUFD said:

    I would suggest the only reasonable answer to the question posed by OGH is 'Not Enough'.

    America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.

    Sadly it won't happen.

    Most of the GOP Senators will not vote to convict him though as the vast majority of GOP representatives voted against impeachment as it would split the party apart and either lead to most of them being primaried or Trump starting his own party and splitting the right in the US
    We know if Trump forces a schism within the GOP the only beneficiaries will be the Democrats as they wer ein 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt's Progressive Party split the Republican vote and forced Taft into a humiliating third place and handed Wilson a huge win.

    Even if Trump's supporters forced out a number of GOP congressmen and Senators by primary that doesn't mean all those seats will stay red. As we've seen in Georgia, mobilising the anti-Trump vote can pay dividends.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Oh dear. Absolutely dreadful for Labour given the circumstances...
    Probably not a cause for panic though. It's the vaccine effect, and all that's happening is that the Conservatives are getting back to the consistent modest leads that they enjoyed when everything felt more normal last Summer and Sunak was dishing out his cut-price dinners.

    Labour's leadership is far from perfect but OTOH they're not going to get much of a hearing whilst Covid continues to dominate everything. And Starmer's certainly right not to start banging on about Europe again. For most people, everything pales into insignificance compared to the restrictions and their effects; most of the population has not been directly affected by the problems with the borders and such like in any meaningful way so far; and if he picks open old wounds right now then the only message Leave voters are going to take away is that Labour is still obsessed with the EU and wants to try to undo Brexit.

    Much of his party may want to scream "I told you so!" at its ex-voters up North but one suspects that Starmer is rather more interested in winning them back, thank you very much. There'll be plenty of time to do that once Covid is tamed, the Government has to start trying to put the country back together, and the Opposition can then attempt to hold it to account for its many mistakes.
    That's the key point. The Conservative lead is deserved right now, and that will continue to be the case until the next massive @$%"-up by the government. So if they want to win next time, all they have to do is avoid massive @$%"-ups.

    It's that simple. Ahem.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200

    BBC News - Covid: South Africa variant found in Hampshire village
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-56053845

    I've heard from someone who knows someone in the know that the Saffa variant was detected in Woking in December. Now, I don't know if that was specifically relating to the two cases that spooked the authorities, but I think it's been here a lot longer than a few weeks.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,428
    tlg86 said:

    BBC News - Covid: South Africa variant found in Hampshire village
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-56053845

    I've heard from someone who knows someone in the know that the Saffa variant was detected in Woking in December. Now, I don't know if that was specifically relating to the two cases that spooked the authorities, but I think it's been here a lot longer than a few weeks.
    I think it’s been here for ages and ages. Thankfully both the Pfizer and ANZ vaccines have provoked really good T-Cell responses to it, even if antibody results have been disappointing.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,534
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh dear. Absolutely dreadful for Labour given the circumstances...
    Interesting article in the Guardian/Observer. SKS's strategic difficulties are immense, and he faces a leader and government that plays hardball and takes no prisoners.

    1) SKS voted for this exact deal. The fact that it was a choice only between this deal and no deal cuts no ice except with politics geeks. That's not fair but politics isn't. He voted for it.

    2) Every criticism of the deal cuts at least two ways:

    a) It says we were a bit dim to leave and the government is all at sea. (This is the united view of the entire establishment of course, but it isn't only Adonis, Blair and Clark who get a vote or a voice. Outside the bubble they don't have a voice at all.)

    or

    b) All criticism and everything wrong about the deal shows that the EU are a perfidious bunch using their undemocratic power to do their best to stitch us up with a punishment deal, when they should have allowed us a cakeist deal. The fact that they are so horrid proves it was right to leave. It takes two to tango and nice Boris did his best.

    Those who think (a) can vote for Lab, LD, green and SNP. Some will vote Tory because they do. Their votes go all over the place. Those who think (b) have only one party to vote for and it isn't SKS's.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    Full poll details, Greens on 5% and just 1% behind the LDs on 6%
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,663
    HYUFD said:

    I would suggest the only reasonable answer to the question posed by OGH is 'Not Enough'.

    America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.

    Sadly it won't happen.

    Most of the GOP Senators will not vote to convict him though as the vast majority of GOP representatives voted against impeachment as it would split the party apart and either lead to most of them being primaried or Trump starting his own party and splitting the right in the US
    Odd sort of jury. They're supposed to confine themselves to the evidence.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,419
    HYUFD said:
    Waste of time Starmer banging on about Brexit failures, that is criticising the electorate. He is better off being positive on a post Brexit, post Covid plan.

    I would take a five point deficit at the moment. I think the deficit will increase. However by the summer it should be close again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    edited February 13
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would suggest the only reasonable answer to the question posed by OGH is 'Not Enough'.

    America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.

    Sadly it won't happen.

    Most of the GOP Senators will not vote to convict him though as the vast majority of GOP representatives voted against impeachment as it would split the party apart and either lead to most of them being primaried or Trump starting his own party and splitting the right in the US
    Odd sort of jury. They're supposed to confine themselves to the evidence.
    They do, just they confine themselves to the evidence they will be primaried by Trump loyalists and lose their jobs and $174,000 a year salaries and perks if they vote to convict Trump
  • HYUFD said:

    Full poll details, Greens on 5% and just 1% behind the LDs on 6%

    LDs will do nothing in local elections 2021. Could well finish behind Greens in popular vote. But as we all know, mid term local elections don't matter!
    I might vote Sadiq for a change 👍
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,918
    algarkirk said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh dear. Absolutely dreadful for Labour given the circumstances...
    Interesting article in the Guardian/Observer. SKS's strategic difficulties are immense, and he faces a leader and government that plays hardball and takes no prisoners.

    1) SKS voted for this exact deal. The fact that it was a choice only between this deal and no deal cuts no ice except with politics geeks. That's not fair but politics isn't. He voted for it.

    2) Every criticism of the deal cuts at least two ways:

    a) It says we were a bit dim to leave and the government is all at sea. (This is the united view of the entire establishment of course, but it isn't only Adonis, Blair and Clark who get a vote or a voice. Outside the bubble they don't have a voice at all.)

    or

    b) All criticism and everything wrong about the deal shows that the EU are a perfidious bunch using their undemocratic power to do their best to stitch us up with a punishment deal, when they should have allowed us a cakeist deal. The fact that they are so horrid proves it was right to leave. It takes two to tango and nice Boris did his best.

    Those who think (a) can vote for Lab, LD, green and SNP. Some will vote Tory because they do. Their votes go all over the place. Those who think (b) have only one party to vote for and it isn't SKS's.

    It's a spectrum.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,419

    55-59 seems value.

    55 seems almost certain. Every vote has split 55-45 hasn't it?

    A good call. I am on,56.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,051
    On topic, everyone knows all votes of importance end up being 52-48.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would suggest the only reasonable answer to the question posed by OGH is 'Not Enough'.

    America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.

    Sadly it won't happen.

    Most of the GOP Senators will not vote to convict him though as the vast majority of GOP representatives voted against impeachment as it would split the party apart and either lead to most of them being primaried or Trump starting his own party and splitting the right in the US
    Odd sort of jury. They're supposed to confine themselves to the evidence.
    They do, just they confine themselves to the evidence they will be primaried by Trump loyalists and lose their jobs and $174,000 a year salaries and perks if they vote to convict Trump
    Romney having a net worth of $250 million can afford by contrast to take the moral high ground, plus he has a personal vote in Utah
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645

    HYUFD said:

    Full poll details, Greens on 5% and just 1% behind the LDs on 6%

    LDs will do nothing in local elections 2021. Could well finish behind Greens in popular vote. But as we all know, mid term local elections don't matter!
    I might vote Sadiq for a change 👍
    It looks like the Greens will make the biggest gains in May, Labour will do well in the county elections where they were 11% behind in 2017 and London, less well in the district elections which were level in 2016.

    The LDs I agree will do well just to tread water
  • Off topic - had an entertaining afternoon going shopping. Back in Thornaby a trip to Lidl was a 10 minute walk, now its a 15 minute drive.

    Or it would be without the wind blowing the snow off the fields onto the road. A couple of bad patches on the way into Broch (Fraserborough) on the back road, but nothing bad. The way back up the A98? Chaos. Managed to briefly beach myself on a snow pile when I had to get out of the single file track for passing traffic.

    Then the fun really began. A truck that was properly stuck. Tractor comes to plow a route round it, various cars come the other way then our line of traffic goes round the truck. A mile later its all stop again as a woman turning into her farm gets beached. We all dig her off to clear the road. Then we all get stuck as the snow blasts off the field.

    A couple of hours of community digging and a few moves forward and eventually someone with a tractor and bucket arrives - we get dug out and manage to go forward. Was all of a mile and a half from home at the time. Was great fun!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,768
    Sausage - the Wifey had her on the first episode. She knows her singing voices does Wifey....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,534

    HYUFD said:
    Waste of time Starmer banging on about Brexit failures, that is criticising the electorate. He is better off being positive on a post Brexit, post Covid plan.

    I would take a five point deficit at the moment. I think the deficit will increase. However by the summer it should be close again.
    SKS still has to deal with the problem that the Tories basically are the one and only party of those who, whatever their starting point, are now psychologically comfortable and prepared to be progressive and if needed aggressive about Brexit.

    Labour are one of a several parties competing for key votes among the rest. Although they could be a majority of the population they are not united in terms of party (ex hypothesi) or, crucially, aim. No single vision unites them, and can't. Some want to refight. Some to complain. Some to find fault. Some to split the union. Some want to soften the effect by renegotiation. Some want to join EFTA (like me!). And so on.

    SKS has real difficulties standing anywhere because the moment he does he opens up ground to the minor parties and splits his own ranks.

    It is the mirror image of the recent situation for Brexiteers. Lots wanted Brexit but there were 6 different meanings to it. Remain meant only one thing. Now Brexit has one meaning only. Opposition to this Brexit government has 10 different meanings.

    Some Blair quality leadership is needed urgently.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,918
    edited February 13

    Although vaccination scheme going well, Boris if he stays will have to oversee the next have challenge, how to get the economy going again and pay for the past year, plus of course Brexit.

    There will be many difficult and unpopular decisions....and of course that is ignoring the likelihood that Boris balls up something.

    I hope that on the side Liz Truss has a series of workstreams about opening up air corridors to safe countries etc from early summer to get business rolling again.

    As things are we have about another 75m jabs to do to cover all willing adults, which is very roughly 3 months if we average 750k a day at reasonably efficient distribution across groups. Plus 3 weeks is early June. Several ifs but it is an encouraging image.

    There may be a 2-6 months' head start on the rest of Europe if the EU does not get its own recovery in gear, that is *after* it gets its vaccine programme in gear.

    Is that much of a compensation for any Brexit hits?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    edited February 13
    In some good news for Starmer, Labour leads 53% to 36% in Tory gains in 2019 and 47% to 33% in Labour holds in 2019.

    The Tories lead 50% to 34% in Tory holds in 2019

    https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/VI-2021-02-11-Observer-Data-Tables-v2.xlsx
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,419

    HYUFD said:
    This does support the trend - Tories up, Labour falling back.
    A little further for Labour to fall yet. It will nonetheless change, and when it does the improvement for Labour might be dramatic. My only caveat is; the Conservative lead remains, but is in slower decline until Sunak jettisons furlough.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,051
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would suggest the only reasonable answer to the question posed by OGH is 'Not Enough'.

    America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.

    Sadly it won't happen.

    Most of the GOP Senators will not vote to convict him though as the vast majority of GOP representatives voted against impeachment as it would split the party apart and either lead to most of them being primaried or Trump starting his own party and splitting the right in the US
    Odd sort of jury. They're supposed to confine themselves to the evidence.
    Let's be honest, there is no conceivable argument the defence could make that would result in material numbers of Democrats voting to acquit, is there?

    Which is not to disagree with the point being made. But simply to say that US politics has long since ceased to even pretend that these proceedings can possibly be non-partisan.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,419
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:
    Waste of time Starmer banging on about Brexit failures, that is criticising the electorate. He is better off being positive on a post Brexit, post Covid plan.

    I would take a five point deficit at the moment. I think the deficit will increase. However by the summer it should be close again.
    SKS still has to deal with the problem that the Tories basically are the one and only party of those who, whatever their starting point, are now psychologically comfortable and prepared to be progressive and if needed aggressive about Brexit.

    Labour are one of a several parties competing for key votes among the rest. Although they could be a majority of the population they are not united in terms of party (ex hypothesi) or, crucially, aim. No single vision unites them, and can't. Some want to refight. Some to complain. Some to find fault. Some to split the union. Some want to soften the effect by renegotiation. Some want to join EFTA (like me!). And so on.

    SKS has real difficulties standing anywhere because the moment he does he opens up ground to the minor parties and splits his own ranks.

    It is the mirror image of the recent situation for Brexiteers. Lots wanted Brexit but there were 6 different meanings to it. Remain meant only one thing. Now Brexit has one meaning only. Opposition to this Brexit government has 10 different meanings.

    Some Blair quality leadership is needed urgently.


    Even I am getting impatient for something, anything!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,918
    edited February 13
    Blockquotes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,768
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:
    Waste of time Starmer banging on about Brexit failures, that is criticising the electorate. He is better off being positive on a post Brexit, post Covid plan.

    I would take a five point deficit at the moment. I think the deficit will increase. However by the summer it should be close again.
    SKS still has to deal with the problem that the Tories basically are the one and only party of those who, whatever their starting point, are now psychologically comfortable and prepared to be progressive and if needed aggressive about Brexit.

    Labour are one of a several parties competing for key votes among the rest. Although they could be a majority of the population they are not united in terms of party (ex hypothesi) or, crucially, aim. No single vision unites them, and can't. Some want to refight. Some to complain. Some to find fault. Some to split the union. Some want to soften the effect by renegotiation. Some want to join EFTA (like me!). And so on.

    SKS has real difficulties standing anywhere because the moment he does he opens up ground to the minor parties and splits his own ranks.

    It is the mirror image of the recent situation for Brexiteers. Lots wanted Brexit but there were 6 different meanings to it. Remain meant only one thing. Now Brexit has one meaning only. Opposition to this Brexit government has 10 different meanings.

    Some Blair quality leadership is needed urgently.


    SKS was the guy who tried every trick to have the UK Parliament overthrow the Brexit vote. The vote where the people had their say on the EU. He is the embodiment of everything about the system that stops votes actually meaning anything.

    Up against Boris, who embodies everything about delivering that vote.

    Which position do you think plays best in the word of Red Wall?


    Starmer's world of pain is yet to descend.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 55,953
    edited February 13
    Former President Donald Trump has been acquitted by the Senate on the charge of inciting the 6 January riot.

    Does he fancy another go in 2024?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,760
    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would suggest the only reasonable answer to the question posed by OGH is 'Not Enough'.

    America will never start to heal as long as Trump is loitering in the wings threatening a return and poisoning the debate as he surely will for the next 4 years. The best way to stop that is for the impeachment to succeed and Trump to be banned from ever holding elected office again.

    Sadly it won't happen.

    Most of the GOP Senators will not vote to convict him though as the vast majority of GOP representatives voted against impeachment as it would split the party apart and either lead to most of them being primaried or Trump starting his own party and splitting the right in the US
    Odd sort of jury. They're supposed to confine themselves to the evidence.
    Let's be honest, there is no conceivable argument the defence could make that would result in material numbers of Democrats voting to acquit, is there?

    Which is not to disagree with the point being made. But simply to say that US politics has long since ceased to even pretend that these proceedings can possibly be non-partisan.
    Maybe impeachments should be heard by the SCOTUS?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    57 guilty 43 not guilty, so a majority of Senators vote to convict Trump but he is acquitted as less than 2/3 voted to convict.

    7 Republicans voted to convict

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