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  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleazy broken Labour on the slide

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 8s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%

    A massive kickback versus OGH thread on the Labour uptick???
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleazy broken Labour on the slide

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 8s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%

    A massive kickback versus OGH thread on the Labour uptick???
    It is just one poll.

    Alastair Cook = Ed Miliband?

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Tonights YG LAB 347 CON 256 LD 21 OTHER 26 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM according to all June polls 10.5 months to go
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleazy broken Labour on the slide

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 8s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%

    A massive kickback versus OGH thread on the Labour uptick???
    No fundamental change.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sleazy broken Labour on the slide

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 8s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by four points: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%

    Tonights YG LAB 347 CON 256 LD 21 OTHER 26 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM according to all June polls 10.5 months to go
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Latest DH offering LOL
    http://t.co/HmCHAyNZ85
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Comfort blankets on, sleep tight & good night.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    PB Hodges remind me of the footy pundits many years ago. "Ed is crap and will never PM" is the political equivalent to "Forest are too good to go down."
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Cough CROSSOVVVVEEEEERRRR Cough
  • Paul_Mid_Beds
    Paul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited June 2014
    Dixie said:

    Boba/Rochdale

    William Hague said that Tories have two gears: panic and complacency! As things stanf Ed will be PM and UKIP will do well but probably won't win a seat. The needle is not moving away from Labour. It may be true that voters don't vote for poor leaders but David Cameron is hardly setting the world on fire. It's likely that Farage's charisma will dominate the GE. It depends on his narrative. If it is Labour bashig, Tories have a chance. But why would it be.

    Tories have to be more than 7% ahead and on 40% minimum to get a majority. After 2 years of pools that don't say this even at local/european election time, it simply ain't possible.

    Sorry but that is old hat. The lib dem vote collapse has unwound the electoral bias to labour to a significant extent.

    Say the next election ends

    C 35%
    L 31%
    LD 8%
    UKIP 15%

    Which is not too different from current polls, and not an unlikely figure given that the tories will likely gain a few % as we get toward election and labour lose a few % , This represents a 2% fall for Cons on 2010 and a 1.5% rise for Labour on 2010.

    If this happens in 2015, then according to Baxter, Tories would be 13 seats short of majority, gaining six more seats than they got in 2010, despite polling 2% lower.

    In reality with SF not sitting they would be 11 short of a majority and with DUP support 2 short of a majority and able to govern for up to 18 months before calling another election at a time of their choosing as to defeat them in a confidence vote would require an extraordinary seven party coalition of Lab, Lib, Green, SNP, PC, Hernon & SDLP.

    A tory government is the likely outcome of the next election unless the liberals recover.

    To give an idea of how things are affected. For every extra % the lib dems get and % UKIP lose with C35%, Lab31%, the situation changes as follows:

    LD%/UKIP% (C35%, Lab 31% in all cases)

    8/15 - Tories 13 Short

    9/14 - Tories 17 short

    10/13 - Tories 19 short

    11/12- Tories 20 short

    12/11 - Tories 23 short

    13/10 - Tories 23 Short

    14/9 - Tories 25 short

    15/8 - Tories 27 short

    16/7 - Tories 31 short

    17/6 - Tories 33 short

    18/5 - tories 34 short

    19/4 - tories 36 short

    20/3 - Tories 38 short

    With the actual 2010 LD/UKIP figures of 23.56% /3.17%, C35, Lab 31 result in Labour 44 short and two seats ahead of the tories.

    UKIP and the Lib collapse are very bad news for Labour.

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Did anyone BET FRED
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    compouter2 said:

    Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.

    Well I'm glad you're acknowledging Ed is crap, considering his personal ratings. Historically Labour's lead isn't that impressive, ditto the NNESV, and Labour's lead and share has fallen since it's high point, when posters were telling us Labour had a 40% firewall.

    Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Any ETA for the Ashcroft Lib Dems vs Labour marginals poll?

    Could just confirm everyone's assumptions that the red tide sweeps all before them OR will it show blues backing their little yellow buddies contrary to all expectations....
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    bigjohnowls said:

    Cough CROSSOVVVVEEEEERRRR Cough

    Cue Hovis music.......Ahhhh....do you remember the good old days. A whole three days where crossover was a reality and the PB Hodges were in deep conversation about Tory majorities. Now just a distant dream........young boy cycles off down the cobbles.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    compouter2 said:

    PB Hodges rumble on about Ed being crap. Labour continues to lead in the opinion polls, and Basil is effing knackered. Two days off since March 2012 he's had, he's keeping GlaxoSmithKline going with the amount of tramadol he's been using.

    http://media.newschoolers.com/uploads/images/17/00/61/66/39/616639.jpeg

    Why?

    tramadol is a Purdue /Mundi / Napp product.

    At least his efforts will have funded a couple of art galleries somewhere
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I said it the other day, back Costa Rica, Roy has announced the team play Costa Rica.

    Time to go balls deep on Costa Rica

    On Monday he named his starting lineup, with Gary Cahill and Daniel Sturridge the only survivors from last week’s 2-1 defeat by Uruguay.

    England XI Ben Foster, Phil Jones, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, Luke Shaw, James Milner, Frank Lampard, Jack Wilshere, Ross Barkley, Adam Lallana, Daniel Sturridge.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/23/roy-hodgson-england-costa-rica-world-cup

    Wow is what I say.
    Very brave of Roy, the more so in that should England win with this 11 (or substantially with this side, give or take 2-3 subs), he going to get a lot of flak for not having been more adventurous in the earlier games.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    compouter2 said:

    Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.

    Well I'm glad you're acknowledging Ed is crap, considering his personal ratings. Historically Labour's lead isn't that impressive, ditto the NNESV, and Labour's lead and share has fallen since it's high point, when posters were telling us Labour had a 40% firewall.

    Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
    No one is perfect Mr Eagles. I would say the crossover was a dead cat bounce, however, taking it lasted three polls, it may upset dead cats.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Costa Rica will want to come top to evade Columbia.

    My £2 at 33:1 on nul points is looking promising!
    Tykejohnno said:

    England team v Costa Rica: Foster, Jones, Cahill, Smalling, Shaw, Wilshere, Lallana, Milner, Lampard, Barkley, Sturridge

    Have you seen the defence,all I will say is - God help us ;-)

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    compouter2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    compouter2 said:

    Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.

    Well I'm glad you're acknowledging Ed is crap, considering his personal ratings. Historically Labour's lead isn't that impressive, ditto the NNESV, and Labour's lead and share has fallen since it's high point, when posters were telling us Labour had a 40% firewall.

    Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
    No one is perfect Mr Eagles. I would say the crossover was a dead cat bounce, however, taking it lasted three polls, it may upset dead cats.
    The crossover/YouGov tie was profitable for some of us.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown :

    10 hours 40 minutes 30 seconds
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Sweet dreams PB Hodges ;-)

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/19/populus-becomes-the-third-pollster-in-a-week-to-show-the-tories-ahead/
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Carnyx This morning was saying Cameron was a coward for not debating Salmond. But Cameron is English, albeit with Scot ancestors, and so cannot vote in the referendum and therefore cannot debate either. Darling is a Scot and can. If Cameron as the English UK PM does debate then I would be demanding the rUK, England, Wales and NI, also get a vote in the referendum as the rUK is now clearly involved in a referendum which was supposed to be for Scots to decide for themselves
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Costa Rica will want to come top to evade Columbia.

    My £2 at 33:1 on nul points is looking promising!

    Tykejohnno said:

    England team v Costa Rica: Foster, Jones, Cahill, Smalling, Shaw, Wilshere, Lallana, Milner, Lampard, Barkley, Sturridge

    Have you seen the defence,all I will say is - God help us ;-)

    That would indeed be a startling (and disastrous) outcome for England. Even cynical old me didn't see that one coming.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It was an insurance against disappointment. My experience of the national team is one of underperformance.
    peter_from_putney said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Costa Rica will want to come top to evade Columbia.

    My £2 at 33:1 on nul points is looking promising!

    Tykejohnno said:

    England team v Costa Rica: Foster, Jones, Cahill, Smalling, Shaw, Wilshere, Lallana, Milner, Lampard, Barkley, Sturridge

    Have you seen the defence,all I will say is - God help us ;-)

    That would indeed be a startling (and disastrous) outcome for England. Even cynical old me didn't see that one coming.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    edited June 2014
    Looks like we could have a Netherlands v Brazil knock out match
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    foxinsoxuk said:

    It was an insurance against disappointment. My experience of the national team is one of underperformance.

    peter_from_putney said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Costa Rica will want to come top to evade Columbia.

    My £2 at 33:1 on nul points is looking promising!

    Tykejohnno said:

    England team v Costa Rica: Foster, Jones, Cahill, Smalling, Shaw, Wilshere, Lallana, Milner, Lampard, Barkley, Sturridge

    Have you seen the defence,all I will say is - God help us ;-)

    That would indeed be a startling (and disastrous) outcome for England. Even cynical old me didn't see that one coming.
    I was laying England, but even I was surprised how bad we've been.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Ok, just backed Mexico to win Group A
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like we could have a Netherlands v Brazil knock out match

    How so ?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown :

    10 hours 40 minutes 30 seconds

    ARSE leaks CON 308 LAB 277

    One essential that will not change is that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Become Prime Minister

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like we could have a Netherlands v Brazil knock out match

    How so ?
    One goal in each match, and Brazil finish second in the group.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Ok, Mexico score a third, they just need to score one more, or Brazil to concede one, and Mexico top the group
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:


    Actually, they're quite interested in HSR between Edinburgh and Glasgow and working outwards from there.

    Right, but they are going to build it at zero cost?

    No, so your "savings' on high speed rail are mythical, like all the SNP fiscal plans.
    You aren't listening. Dependence, we pay 1.4 billion to help London get to Brum quicker. Independence, we don't. That is absolutely independent (to coin a phrase) of what we do in Scotland.

    Why the F should the English taxpayers fork out for an entirely unjustified high speed railway between England and a barely populated, mainly frozen, midge infested, impossibly remote, hideously declining, blatantly hostile, repulsively socialist foreign country - i.e. independent Scotland?

    What's in it for us? Nothing. That's what. As long as you are part of Britain, you get the benefits of generous, sunbathed southerners in a good mood. If you leave, you become the Faroe Islands with a bit of coal in the scuttle and a history of spitting in our faces.

    I doubt Anglo-Scottish transport connections will IMPROVE in that context, unless you pay for everything and give us droit du seigneur. Again.
    Might be useful if it was a south only line for all the financial services workers and smart graduates fleeing from socialist hell.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like we could have a Netherlands v Brazil knock out match

    2 goals in 5 mins... Unlikely.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like we could have a Netherlands v Brazil knock out match

    2 goals in 5 mins... Unlikely.
    Just need one goal in 7 mins plus injury time now.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    DH - the Labour Party is starting to drift into the post-Miliband era. This time last year, very few senior members of the shadow cabinet thought Labour would prevail in 2015. Now, none of them do. The majority of backbenchers are similarly resigned to defeat.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Damn you Brazil, damn you to hell.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like we could have a Netherlands v Brazil knock out match

    2 goals in 5 mins... Unlikely.
    Just need one goal in 7 mins plus injury time now.
    2 goals ..
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    Damn you Croatia!
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like we could have a Netherlands v Brazil knock out match

    2 goals in 5 mins... Unlikely.
    Just need one goal in 7 mins plus injury time now.
    How many?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?
  • Fat_Steve
    Fat_Steve Posts: 361
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    compouter2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    compouter2 said:

    Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.

    Well I'm glad you're acknowledging Ed is crap, considering his personal ratings. Historically Labour's lead isn't that impressive, ditto the NNESV, and Labour's lead and share has fallen since it's high point, when posters were telling us Labour had a 40% firewall.

    Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
    No one is perfect Mr Eagles. I would say the crossover was a dead cat bounce, however, taking it lasted three polls, it may upset dead cats.
    The crossover/YouGov tie was profitable for some of us.
    What we seem to be seeing is a portion of the NOTA vote backing Labour between elections. In actual elections its diffferent , as we saw a month ago. Labours lead is not bankable.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Scott_P said:

    @kevverage: If #indyref was business

    Me: Cost?
    FD: £200m

    [2 wks later]
    Me: OK £200m
    FD: *coughs* & £900m on IT
    Me: ?
    FD: *blushes*
    Me: ?
    FD: *resigns*

    Sad Git
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Run that lot see what it gives you.
  • IOS
    IOS Posts: 1,450
    Lab 35%
    Con 35%

    Lets see what happens if we have vote share tie.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    The Lib Dems were polling at 13 last month with ICM, I'd expect them to be slightly higher than that at the GE.

    That said, I'm expecting the Lib Dem campaign to be all about seats and not national share of the vote.

    I'd have UKIP a tad lower.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    LAB is not going to be down at 31 given the number of LD switchers.

    I'd suggest

    CON 35
    LAB 34
    LD 12
    UKIP 14

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    CON 35 LAB 34 LD 11 UKIP 11 for me
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    I'd take that result all day long!
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    ....and the Tories
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited June 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    Double figures? ;)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    More shocking than the Lib Dems losing Sheffield Hallam and Twickenham?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    When Mike?
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    More shocking than the Lib Dems losing Sheffield Hallam and Twickenham?


    The poll doesn't cover those seats.

  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Is it the LD/LAB marginals from our dear Lord.

    Expecting Lab to be doing really well in those
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    LD bellow the Greens?
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.



  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,805
    edited June 2014
    Oh Christ, I think the Sun and Ian Wright have seriously misjudged the mood.

    Edit: This is what I'm talking about

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 1m

    Columnists meant to provoke but this from Ian Wright...! Bereaved family might just have other stuff to worry about?

    pic.twitter.com/ifAT7WNuhI
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    bigjohnowls said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    When Mike?
    I'm hoping for it to be published in the next 24 hours. The Tories are the biggest losers.

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    No chance IMHO LAB 34 is worst I can see. Got to reclaim ex LAB who voted LD in 2010
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Damn you Croatia!

    Be carefull what you wish for, I damned Ghana after the match with Germany and look what happened.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    I expect UKIP to lose a third of their vote.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeSmithson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    When Mike?
    I'm hoping for it to be published in the next 24 hours. The Tories are the biggest losers.

    Nationwide poll? ComRes phone one?
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:


    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.



    Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.

    How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?

    How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.

    I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.

    They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I said it the other day, back Costa Rica, Roy has announced the team play Costa Rica.

    Time to go balls deep on Costa Rica

    On Monday he named his starting lineup, with Gary Cahill and Daniel Sturridge the only survivors from last week’s 2-1 defeat by Uruguay.

    England XI Ben Foster, Phil Jones, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, Luke Shaw, James Milner, Frank Lampard, Jack Wilshere, Ross Barkley, Adam Lallana, Daniel Sturridge.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/23/roy-hodgson-england-costa-rica-world-cup

    Wow is what I say.
    Very brave of Roy, the more so in that should England win with this 11 (or substantially with this side, give or take 2-3 subs), he going to get a lot of flak for not having been more adventurous in the earlier games.
    What the hell is the point of playing Frank Lampard?
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    bigjohnowls said:

    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    No chance IMHO LAB 34 is worst I can see. Got to reclaim ex LAB who voted LD in 2010
    And shed those who voted for experience and a safe pair of hands in Brown?

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Ian Wright Writes Right in Sun Reader and evidently Sean T minds. What a surprise
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MikeSmithson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    When Mike?
    I'm hoping for it to be published in the next 24 hours. The Tories are the biggest losers.

    Tories biggest losers and shocking for Lib Dems ?

    Is this the Lib Lab marginal poll or something ?
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:


    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.



    Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.

    How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?

    How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.

    I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.

    They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
    The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.



  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    When Mike?
    I'm hoping for it to be published in the next 24 hours. The Tories are the biggest losers.

    Tories biggest losers and shocking for Lib Dems ?

    Is this the Lib Lab marginal poll or something ?
    If its a nationwide poll then the Times UKIP friendly front page tomorrow will be right on time.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Explosive new book by Edward Klein on the Clintons and Obamas - ' “I hate that man Obama more than any man I’ve ever met, more than any man who ever lived,” Bill Clinton said to friends on one occasion, adding he would never forgive Obama for suggesting he was a racist during the 2008 campaign.'

    'I really can’t stand the way Obama ­always seems to be hectoring when he talks to me,” Clinton added … “Now we both have favors to ask each other, and it’s going to be very unpleasant. But I’ve got to get this guy to owe me and to be on our side.”'

    'On most evenings, Michelle Obama and her trusted adviser, Valerie Jarrett, met in a quiet corner of the White House residence. They’d usually open a bottle of Chardonnay, catch up on news about Sasha and Malia, and gossip about people who gave them heartburn.

    Their favorite bête noire was Hillary Clinton, whom they nicknamed “Hildebeest,” after the menacing and shaggy-maned gnu that roams the Serengeti'

    'As Bill Clinton went on about his managerial experience, Obama began playing with his Blackberry under the table, making it plain that he wasn’t paying attention to anything Clinton had to say. He was intentionally snubbing Clinton. Others around the table noticed Obama thumbing his Blackberry, and the atmosphere turned even colder than before.'

    http://www.bizpacreview.com/2014/06/22/new-book-on-bitter-feud-between-obamas-clintons-i-hate-that-man-obama-more-than-any-man-who-ever-lived-bill-says-127154
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Explosive new book by Edward Klein on the Clintons and Obamas - ' “I hate that man Obama more than any man I’ve ever met, more than any man who ever lived,” Bill Clinton said to friends on one occasion, adding he would never forgive Obama for suggesting he was a racist during the 2008 campaign.'

    'I really can’t stand the way Obama ­always seems to be hectoring when he talks to me,” Clinton added … “Now we both have favors to ask each other, and it’s going to be very unpleasant. But I’ve got to get this guy to owe me and to be on our side.”'

    'On most evenings, Michelle Obama and her trusted adviser, Valerie Jarrett, met in a quiet corner of the White House residence. They’d usually open a bottle of Chardonnay, catch up on news about Sasha and Malia, and gossip about people who gave them heartburn.

    Their favorite bête noire was Hillary Clinton, whom they nicknamed “Hildebeest,” after the menacing and shaggy-maned gnu that roams the Serengeti'

    'As Bill Clinton went on about his managerial experience, Obama began playing with his Blackberry under the table, making it plain that he wasn’t paying attention to anything Clinton had to say. He was intentionally snubbing Clinton. Others around the table noticed Obama thumbing his Blackberry, and the atmosphere turned even colder than before.'

    http://www.bizpacreview.com/2014/06/22/new-book-on-bitter-feud-between-obamas-clintons-i-hate-that-man-obama-more-than-any-man-who-ever-lived-bill-says-127154

    2008 is a long time ago, before Hillary became his secretary of state and before Bill saved his campaign in 2012.
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:


    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.



    Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.

    How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?

    How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.

    I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.

    They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
    The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.



    It is a very linear interpretation of an illogical process that exerts all sorts of pressure on base human instincts, personal well being and future prospects.

    There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.

    The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.

    Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.

  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:


    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.



    Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.

    How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?

    How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.

    I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.

    They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
    The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.



    No, what happens with UKIP voters are, it's swing voters that matter. Wishful thinking.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:


    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.



    Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.

    How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?

    How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.

    I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.

    They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
    The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.



    It is a very linear interpretation of an illogical process that exerts all sorts of pressure on base human instincts, personal well being and future prospects.

    There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.

    The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.

    Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.

    You forgot no. three: UKIP.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    One fact it is very easy to forget about GE2010 is that the Lib Dems were closer to Labour in terms of votes than Labour were to the Conservatives.
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Obama's people already working with the fake Indian to stop Hilary, not so sure she won't lose the nomination again.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited June 2014
    Speedy said:

    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:


    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.



    Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.

    How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?

    How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.

    I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.

    They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
    The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.



    It is a very linear interpretation of an illogical process that exerts all sorts of pressure on base human instincts, personal well being and future prospects.

    There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.

    The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.

    Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.

    You forgot no. three: UKIP.

    At my old firm we had a model that was great at trading in running 50 Over cricket

    When t20 came along we tried to use the same one but it didnt work as well

    Now t20 has evolved it is virtually useless

    I reckon the same is happening now we have 4 party politics. People dont like to give up their old methods that worked before, hence the value in backing UKIP... took me years to accept that the old t20 program was past its sell by
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    Speedy said:

    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:


    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
    I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.



    Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.

    How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?

    How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.

    I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.

    They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
    The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.



    It is a very linear interpretation of an illogical process that exerts all sorts of pressure on base human instincts, personal well being and future prospects.

    There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.

    The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.

    Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.

    You forgot no. three: UKIP.
    Yes and no, I mentioned them in previous post suggesting Labour could leak votes that way
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    One fact it is very easy to forget about GE2010 is that the Lib Dems were closer to Labour in terms of votes than Labour were to the Conservatives.

    And despite the 2010GE being a historical election, 2015GE looks set to be even more historical (and they say elections are boring).
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    What a tremendous set of front pages for UKIP that is tommorow.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Interesting bit of history in the Independent

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/historians-reveal-secrets-of-uk-gunrunning-which-lengthened-the-american-civil-war-by-two-years-9557937.html
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2014
    Speedy It covers a timeframe beyond 2008 too. Emotions may not be as raw as 2008 but there is still not much love lost between them, certainly on the part of Bill towards Barack and Michelle towards Hillary
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Hmm next season Real could have Suarez, Bale & Ronaldo...
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    MikeSmithson said:

    There's a shocking poll for the LDs coming...

    [Blackadder voice] As shocking as when Shocky the Electric Eel suffered an electric shock after accidentally poking his nose into an electric socket?
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello peeps:

    I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:

    Con 34
    Lab 31
    UKIP 15
    LD 13

    Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?

    What do people think I should go with?

    Seems odd to try out a new system on numbers different from every poll for the last couple of years? If it produces strange results, we won't be able to tell if it's SMERSH or simply the numbers. Why not start with current(ish) numbers (say 32/35/15/10), then do runs with different ones to see what your system predicts will change?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy It covers a timeframe beyond 2008 too. Emotions may not be as raw as 2008 but there is still not much love lost between them, certainly on the part of Bill towards Barack and Michelle towards Hillary

    Common interests trump emotions sometimes and the Obama-Clinton relationship is one of those instances.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2014
    Lone Fianna Fail MEP joins Tories in ECR, with the Afd this confirms it as the 3rd biggest group in the European Parliament, ahead of the Liberal ALDE
    http://www.rte.ie/news/touch/2014/0623/625874-fianna-fail-europe/
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy Indeed, and the Clintons clearly wanted a Democratic win in 2012 to set up Hillary for 2016 as much as Barack needed Bill's charisma and centrist appeal to the white working class and suburbs, but calculation is the same as a loving relationship
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    HYUFD said:

    Lone Fianna Fail MEP joins Tories in ECR, with the Afd this confirms it as the 3rd biggest group in the European Parliament, ahead of the Liberal ALDE
    http://www.rte.ie/news/touch/2014/0623/625874-fianna-fail-europe/

    I thought FF were in the ALDE!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Smarmeron said:

    Interesting bit of history in the Independent

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/historians-reveal-secrets-of-uk-gunrunning-which-lengthened-the-american-civil-war-by-two-years-9557937.html

    It was only Uncle Tom's Cabin that saved the USA, if it wasn't published world public opinion wouldn't have been so anti-confederate and Palmerston would never have read it and made the decision to stay neutral.

    From a clear geopolitical point of view Britain, France, Spain and Mexico had every interest to see the USA split, but supporting slavery was too immoral.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Elijah Wood backs Scottish Independence
    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/frodo-backs-scottish-independence-1-3454065
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    I noticed a road sign for the Tour de France in Leeds city centre this evening.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lone Fianna Fail MEP joins Tories in ECR, with the Afd this confirms it as the 3rd biggest group in the European Parliament, ahead of the Liberal ALDE
    http://www.rte.ie/news/touch/2014/0623/625874-fianna-fail-europe/

    I thought FF were in the ALDE!
    Going from Liberal to eurosceptic is news.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If I had to predict shares for the next election, my current forecast would be something like this:

    Con 33%
    Lab 32%
    UKIP 15%
    LD 14%
  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    I'm not remotely surprised that UKIP are holding up. Some of the pundits think they'll be squeezed back down to 3% but that is pure fantasy. Here are some reasons why UKIP is not going away:

    1) - The party leaders - Cameron is not popular with the Kippers while Miliband and Clegg are not particularly popular with anyone. Yet all 3 are here to stay

    2) - No change in policy - Despite "the lessons learned" shtick all politicians come out with after elections, what is actually going to change to meet UKIP voters' concerns? The LDs think UKIP voters are wrong so will do nothing. Ed Miliband thinks UKIP voters are wrong so will do nothing and keep parroting "cost of living crisis". Cameron cannot do anything to assuage UKIP voters due to the Coalition but may try to put things in the next Tory manifesto. The problem is he lacks credibility due to a) not doing anything on these issues in government and b) the fact many people still remember his Hug a Hoodie phase.

    3) - UKIP has more resources than 2010 - Thousands of new supporters, new MEPs and candidates, and Paul Sykes' donations.

    4) - UKIP will have more TV/press coverage than 2010 - UKIP had virtually no coverage in 2010 and were shut out. Now officially in 2015 UKIP will not be a major party under Electoral Commission rules and won't be entitled to as much coverage as the big 3. However, they should be able to barge their way in (see below). After all UKIP are very good at generating controversy and it is really possible for BBC and Sky to ignore them when that happens?

    5) - UKIP ought to have a more credible manifesto - The 2010 manifesto was a joke and even Farage has admitted as much. It has been a millstone around UKIP's necks. The new 2015 manifesto if done well could be an opportunity to win over new voters.

    If I was writing it I would start from the principal of "make the Guardian readers angry". In 2010 Cameron tried to woo the Guardian, while Labour and the LDs are close to them too. There is a massive space in the political spectrum to be the anti-Guardian party. Here are my suggestions:

    - Cut all foreign aid...
    - ...and use the money to cut taxes on alcohol, cigarettes and petrol by 10/20%
    - Allow closed smoking rooms in pubs
    - No more expensive foreign wars (unless us or a NATO ally attacked)
    - Abolish the BBC licence fee and get the BBC to fund itself through advertising
    - Ban on new windfarms

    Now these policies are not without risk as UKIP would be taking on the powerful health and green lobbies but think of all the publicity! It is also worth remembering that despite government campaigns there are still 10m smokers in the UK many of whom are working class.

    Taking on the BBC would also be a risk but bear in mind the BBC loves nothing more than a story about the BBC. It would also make it easier for UKIP to call out any perceived anti-UKIP bias.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2014
    I'm still beyond confused at Labour's mini-resurgence in the polls. I suppose the prospect of another Tory govt meant some complacent lefties/working-class people got scared and returned from the Greens and UKIP.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is Yokel around?

    "Sunni rebels in Iraq say they have fully captured the country's main oil refinery at Baiji, north of Baghdad."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27990478
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