PB Hodges remind me of the footy pundits many years ago. "Ed is crap and will never PM" is the political equivalent to "Forest are too good to go down."
William Hague said that Tories have two gears: panic and complacency! As things stanf Ed will be PM and UKIP will do well but probably won't win a seat. The needle is not moving away from Labour. It may be true that voters don't vote for poor leaders but David Cameron is hardly setting the world on fire. It's likely that Farage's charisma will dominate the GE. It depends on his narrative. If it is Labour bashig, Tories have a chance. But why would it be.
Tories have to be more than 7% ahead and on 40% minimum to get a majority. After 2 years of pools that don't say this even at local/european election time, it simply ain't possible.
Sorry but that is old hat. The lib dem vote collapse has unwound the electoral bias to labour to a significant extent.
Say the next election ends
C 35% L 31% LD 8% UKIP 15%
Which is not too different from current polls, and not an unlikely figure given that the tories will likely gain a few % as we get toward election and labour lose a few % , This represents a 2% fall for Cons on 2010 and a 1.5% rise for Labour on 2010.
If this happens in 2015, then according to Baxter, Tories would be 13 seats short of majority, gaining six more seats than they got in 2010, despite polling 2% lower.
In reality with SF not sitting they would be 11 short of a majority and with DUP support 2 short of a majority and able to govern for up to 18 months before calling another election at a time of their choosing as to defeat them in a confidence vote would require an extraordinary seven party coalition of Lab, Lib, Green, SNP, PC, Hernon & SDLP.
A tory government is the likely outcome of the next election unless the liberals recover.
To give an idea of how things are affected. For every extra % the lib dems get and % UKIP lose with C35%, Lab31%, the situation changes as follows:
LD%/UKIP% (C35%, Lab 31% in all cases)
8/15 - Tories 13 Short
9/14 - Tories 17 short
10/13 - Tories 19 short
11/12- Tories 20 short
12/11 - Tories 23 short
13/10 - Tories 23 Short
14/9 - Tories 25 short
15/8 - Tories 27 short
16/7 - Tories 31 short
17/6 - Tories 33 short
18/5 - tories 34 short
19/4 - tories 36 short
20/3 - Tories 38 short
With the actual 2010 LD/UKIP figures of 23.56% /3.17%, C35, Lab 31 result in Labour 44 short and two seats ahead of the tories.
UKIP and the Lib collapse are very bad news for Labour.
Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.
Well I'm glad you're acknowledging Ed is crap, considering his personal ratings. Historically Labour's lead isn't that impressive, ditto the NNESV, and Labour's lead and share has fallen since it's high point, when posters were telling us Labour had a 40% firewall.
Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
Any ETA for the Ashcroft Lib Dems vs Labour marginals poll?
Could just confirm everyone's assumptions that the red tide sweeps all before them OR will it show blues backing their little yellow buddies contrary to all expectations....
Cue Hovis music.......Ahhhh....do you remember the good old days. A whole three days where crossover was a reality and the PB Hodges were in deep conversation about Tory majorities. Now just a distant dream........young boy cycles off down the cobbles.
PB Hodges rumble on about Ed being crap. Labour continues to lead in the opinion polls, and Basil is effing knackered. Two days off since March 2012 he's had, he's keeping GlaxoSmithKline going with the amount of tramadol he's been using.
I said it the other day, back Costa Rica, Roy has announced the team play Costa Rica.
Time to go balls deep on Costa Rica
On Monday he named his starting lineup, with Gary Cahill and Daniel Sturridge the only survivors from last week’s 2-1 defeat by Uruguay.
England XI Ben Foster, Phil Jones, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, Luke Shaw, James Milner, Frank Lampard, Jack Wilshere, Ross Barkley, Adam Lallana, Daniel Sturridge.
Wow is what I say. Very brave of Roy, the more so in that should England win with this 11 (or substantially with this side, give or take 2-3 subs), he going to get a lot of flak for not having been more adventurous in the earlier games.
Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.
Well I'm glad you're acknowledging Ed is crap, considering his personal ratings. Historically Labour's lead isn't that impressive, ditto the NNESV, and Labour's lead and share has fallen since it's high point, when posters were telling us Labour had a 40% firewall.
Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
No one is perfect Mr Eagles. I would say the crossover was a dead cat bounce, however, taking it lasted three polls, it may upset dead cats.
Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.
Well I'm glad you're acknowledging Ed is crap, considering his personal ratings. Historically Labour's lead isn't that impressive, ditto the NNESV, and Labour's lead and share has fallen since it's high point, when posters were telling us Labour had a 40% firewall.
Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
No one is perfect Mr Eagles. I would say the crossover was a dead cat bounce, however, taking it lasted three polls, it may upset dead cats.
The crossover/YouGov tie was profitable for some of us.
Carnyx This morning was saying Cameron was a coward for not debating Salmond. But Cameron is English, albeit with Scot ancestors, and so cannot vote in the referendum and therefore cannot debate either. Darling is a Scot and can. If Cameron as the English UK PM does debate then I would be demanding the rUK, England, Wales and NI, also get a vote in the referendum as the rUK is now clearly involved in a referendum which was supposed to be for Scots to decide for themselves
Actually, they're quite interested in HSR between Edinburgh and Glasgow and working outwards from there.
Right, but they are going to build it at zero cost?
No, so your "savings' on high speed rail are mythical, like all the SNP fiscal plans.
You aren't listening. Dependence, we pay 1.4 billion to help London get to Brum quicker. Independence, we don't. That is absolutely independent (to coin a phrase) of what we do in Scotland.
Why the F should the English taxpayers fork out for an entirely unjustified high speed railway between England and a barely populated, mainly frozen, midge infested, impossibly remote, hideously declining, blatantly hostile, repulsively socialist foreign country - i.e. independent Scotland?
What's in it for us? Nothing. That's what. As long as you are part of Britain, you get the benefits of generous, sunbathed southerners in a good mood. If you leave, you become the Faroe Islands with a bit of coal in the scuttle and a history of spitting in our faces.
I doubt Anglo-Scottish transport connections will IMPROVE in that context, unless you pay for everything and give us droit du seigneur. Again.
Might be useful if it was a south only line for all the financial services workers and smart graduates fleeing from socialist hell.
DH - the Labour Party is starting to drift into the post-Miliband era. This time last year, very few senior members of the shadow cabinet thought Labour would prevail in 2015. Now, none of them do. The majority of backbenchers are similarly resigned to defeat.
Ed is Crap, Sleazy Broken Labour on the slide......... Labour ahead in the polls. The stuff of squirrel nightmares.
Well I'm glad you're acknowledging Ed is crap, considering his personal ratings. Historically Labour's lead isn't that impressive, ditto the NNESV, and Labour's lead and share has fallen since it's high point, when posters were telling us Labour had a 40% firewall.
Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
No one is perfect Mr Eagles. I would say the crossover was a dead cat bounce, however, taking it lasted three polls, it may upset dead cats.
The crossover/YouGov tie was profitable for some of us.
What we seem to be seeing is a portion of the NOTA vote backing Labour between elections. In actual elections its diffferent , as we saw a month ago. Labours lead is not bankable.
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.
Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.
How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?
How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.
I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.
They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
I said it the other day, back Costa Rica, Roy has announced the team play Costa Rica.
Time to go balls deep on Costa Rica
On Monday he named his starting lineup, with Gary Cahill and Daniel Sturridge the only survivors from last week’s 2-1 defeat by Uruguay.
England XI Ben Foster, Phil Jones, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, Luke Shaw, James Milner, Frank Lampard, Jack Wilshere, Ross Barkley, Adam Lallana, Daniel Sturridge.
Wow is what I say. Very brave of Roy, the more so in that should England win with this 11 (or substantially with this side, give or take 2-3 subs), he going to get a lot of flak for not having been more adventurous in the earlier games.
What the hell is the point of playing Frank Lampard?
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.
Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.
How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?
How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.
I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.
They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.
Explosive new book by Edward Klein on the Clintons and Obamas - ' “I hate that man Obama more than any man I’ve ever met, more than any man who ever lived,” Bill Clinton said to friends on one occasion, adding he would never forgive Obama for suggesting he was a racist during the 2008 campaign.'
'I really can’t stand the way Obama always seems to be hectoring when he talks to me,” Clinton added … “Now we both have favors to ask each other, and it’s going to be very unpleasant. But I’ve got to get this guy to owe me and to be on our side.”'
'On most evenings, Michelle Obama and her trusted adviser, Valerie Jarrett, met in a quiet corner of the White House residence. They’d usually open a bottle of Chardonnay, catch up on news about Sasha and Malia, and gossip about people who gave them heartburn.
Their favorite bête noire was Hillary Clinton, whom they nicknamed “Hildebeest,” after the menacing and shaggy-maned gnu that roams the Serengeti'
'As Bill Clinton went on about his managerial experience, Obama began playing with his Blackberry under the table, making it plain that he wasn’t paying attention to anything Clinton had to say. He was intentionally snubbing Clinton. Others around the table noticed Obama thumbing his Blackberry, and the atmosphere turned even colder than before.'
Explosive new book by Edward Klein on the Clintons and Obamas - ' “I hate that man Obama more than any man I’ve ever met, more than any man who ever lived,” Bill Clinton said to friends on one occasion, adding he would never forgive Obama for suggesting he was a racist during the 2008 campaign.'
'I really can’t stand the way Obama always seems to be hectoring when he talks to me,” Clinton added … “Now we both have favors to ask each other, and it’s going to be very unpleasant. But I’ve got to get this guy to owe me and to be on our side.”'
'On most evenings, Michelle Obama and her trusted adviser, Valerie Jarrett, met in a quiet corner of the White House residence. They’d usually open a bottle of Chardonnay, catch up on news about Sasha and Malia, and gossip about people who gave them heartburn.
Their favorite bête noire was Hillary Clinton, whom they nicknamed “Hildebeest,” after the menacing and shaggy-maned gnu that roams the Serengeti'
'As Bill Clinton went on about his managerial experience, Obama began playing with his Blackberry under the table, making it plain that he wasn’t paying attention to anything Clinton had to say. He was intentionally snubbing Clinton. Others around the table noticed Obama thumbing his Blackberry, and the atmosphere turned even colder than before.'
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.
Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.
How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?
How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.
I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.
They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.
It is a very linear interpretation of an illogical process that exerts all sorts of pressure on base human instincts, personal well being and future prospects.
There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.
The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.
Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.
Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.
How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?
How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.
I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.
They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.
No, what happens with UKIP voters are, it's swing voters that matter. Wishful thinking.
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.
Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.
How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?
How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.
I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.
They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.
It is a very linear interpretation of an illogical process that exerts all sorts of pressure on base human instincts, personal well being and future prospects.
There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.
The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.
Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.
Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.
How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?
How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.
I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.
They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.
It is a very linear interpretation of an illogical process that exerts all sorts of pressure on base human instincts, personal well being and future prospects.
There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.
The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.
Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.
You forgot no. three: UKIP.
At my old firm we had a model that was great at trading in running 50 Over cricket
When t20 came along we tried to use the same one but it didnt work as well
Now t20 has evolved it is virtually useless
I reckon the same is happening now we have 4 party politics. People dont like to give up their old methods that worked before, hence the value in backing UKIP... took me years to accept that the old t20 program was past its sell by
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Good numbers to start. With the 'Ed start Cons have from leadership qualities, I expect Labour to dip to 31 or 32.
I expect you to be wrong. Ed has a lot of support by the voters that matter LD switchers.
Highly likely I will be wrong, but the LibDem switchers are one group of voters.
How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?
How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.
I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.
They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
The LD switchers represent 6-7% of the total number of GB voters. They are central to everything.
It is a very linear interpretation of an illogical process that exerts all sorts of pressure on base human instincts, personal well being and future prospects.
There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.
The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.
Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.
You forgot no. three: UKIP.
Yes and no, I mentioned them in previous post suggesting Labour could leak votes that way
Speedy It covers a timeframe beyond 2008 too. Emotions may not be as raw as 2008 but there is still not much love lost between them, certainly on the part of Bill towards Barack and Michelle towards Hillary
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Seems odd to try out a new system on numbers different from every poll for the last couple of years? If it produces strange results, we won't be able to tell if it's SMERSH or simply the numbers. Why not start with current(ish) numbers (say 32/35/15/10), then do runs with different ones to see what your system predicts will change?
Speedy It covers a timeframe beyond 2008 too. Emotions may not be as raw as 2008 but there is still not much love lost between them, certainly on the part of Bill towards Barack and Michelle towards Hillary
Common interests trump emotions sometimes and the Obama-Clinton relationship is one of those instances.
Speedy Indeed, and the Clintons clearly wanted a Democratic win in 2012 to set up Hillary for 2016 as much as Barack needed Bill's charisma and centrist appeal to the white working class and suburbs, but calculation is the same as a loving relationship
It was only Uncle Tom's Cabin that saved the USA, if it wasn't published world public opinion wouldn't have been so anti-confederate and Palmerston would never have read it and made the decision to stay neutral.
From a clear geopolitical point of view Britain, France, Spain and Mexico had every interest to see the USA split, but supporting slavery was too immoral.
I'm not remotely surprised that UKIP are holding up. Some of the pundits think they'll be squeezed back down to 3% but that is pure fantasy. Here are some reasons why UKIP is not going away:
1) - The party leaders - Cameron is not popular with the Kippers while Miliband and Clegg are not particularly popular with anyone. Yet all 3 are here to stay
2) - No change in policy - Despite "the lessons learned" shtick all politicians come out with after elections, what is actually going to change to meet UKIP voters' concerns? The LDs think UKIP voters are wrong so will do nothing. Ed Miliband thinks UKIP voters are wrong so will do nothing and keep parroting "cost of living crisis". Cameron cannot do anything to assuage UKIP voters due to the Coalition but may try to put things in the next Tory manifesto. The problem is he lacks credibility due to a) not doing anything on these issues in government and b) the fact many people still remember his Hug a Hoodie phase.
3) - UKIP has more resources than 2010 - Thousands of new supporters, new MEPs and candidates, and Paul Sykes' donations.
4) - UKIP will have more TV/press coverage than 2010 - UKIP had virtually no coverage in 2010 and were shut out. Now officially in 2015 UKIP will not be a major party under Electoral Commission rules and won't be entitled to as much coverage as the big 3. However, they should be able to barge their way in (see below). After all UKIP are very good at generating controversy and it is really possible for BBC and Sky to ignore them when that happens?
5) - UKIP ought to have a more credible manifesto - The 2010 manifesto was a joke and even Farage has admitted as much. It has been a millstone around UKIP's necks. The new 2015 manifesto if done well could be an opportunity to win over new voters.
If I was writing it I would start from the principal of "make the Guardian readers angry". In 2010 Cameron tried to woo the Guardian, while Labour and the LDs are close to them too. There is a massive space in the political spectrum to be the anti-Guardian party. Here are my suggestions:
- Cut all foreign aid... - ...and use the money to cut taxes on alcohol, cigarettes and petrol by 10/20% - Allow closed smoking rooms in pubs - No more expensive foreign wars (unless us or a NATO ally attacked) - Abolish the BBC licence fee and get the BBC to fund itself through advertising - Ban on new windfarms
Now these policies are not without risk as UKIP would be taking on the powerful health and green lobbies but think of all the publicity! It is also worth remembering that despite government campaigns there are still 10m smokers in the UK many of whom are working class.
Taking on the BBC would also be a risk but bear in mind the BBC loves nothing more than a story about the BBC. It would also make it easier for UKIP to call out any perceived anti-UKIP bias.
I'm still beyond confused at Labour's mini-resurgence in the polls. I suppose the prospect of another Tory govt meant some complacent lefties/working-class people got scared and returned from the Greens and UKIP.
Comments
Alastair Cook = Ed Miliband?
Ed is crap is PM according to all June polls 10.5 months to go
Ed is crap is PM according to all June polls 10.5 months to go
http://t.co/HmCHAyNZ85
Say the next election ends
C 35%
L 31%
LD 8%
UKIP 15%
Which is not too different from current polls, and not an unlikely figure given that the tories will likely gain a few % as we get toward election and labour lose a few % , This represents a 2% fall for Cons on 2010 and a 1.5% rise for Labour on 2010.
If this happens in 2015, then according to Baxter, Tories would be 13 seats short of majority, gaining six more seats than they got in 2010, despite polling 2% lower.
In reality with SF not sitting they would be 11 short of a majority and with DUP support 2 short of a majority and able to govern for up to 18 months before calling another election at a time of their choosing as to defeat them in a confidence vote would require an extraordinary seven party coalition of Lab, Lib, Green, SNP, PC, Hernon & SDLP.
A tory government is the likely outcome of the next election unless the liberals recover.
To give an idea of how things are affected. For every extra % the lib dems get and % UKIP lose with C35%, Lab31%, the situation changes as follows:
LD%/UKIP% (C35%, Lab 31% in all cases)
8/15 - Tories 13 Short
9/14 - Tories 17 short
10/13 - Tories 19 short
11/12- Tories 20 short
12/11 - Tories 23 short
13/10 - Tories 23 Short
14/9 - Tories 25 short
15/8 - Tories 27 short
16/7 - Tories 31 short
17/6 - Tories 33 short
18/5 - tories 34 short
19/4 - tories 36 short
20/3 - Tories 38 short
With the actual 2010 LD/UKIP figures of 23.56% /3.17%, C35, Lab 31 result in Labour 44 short and two seats ahead of the tories.
UKIP and the Lib collapse are very bad news for Labour.
Considering you said there wouldn't be crossover before the election, perhaps you should take up the Rogerdamus crown.
Could just confirm everyone's assumptions that the red tide sweeps all before them OR will it show blues backing their little yellow buddies contrary to all expectations....
tramadol is a Purdue /Mundi / Napp product.
At least his efforts will have funded a couple of art galleries somewhere
Very brave of Roy, the more so in that should England win with this 11 (or substantially with this side, give or take 2-3 subs), he going to get a lot of flak for not having been more adventurous in the earlier games.
My £2 at 33:1 on nul points is looking promising!
10 hours 40 minutes 30 seconds
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/19/populus-becomes-the-third-pollster-in-a-week-to-show-the-tories-ahead/
One essential that will not change is that :
Ed Miliband Will Never Become Prime Minister
I'm about to kick off a massive SMERSH simulation. And I need forecasts for % for the parties. I was going to go for:
Con 34
Lab 31
UKIP 15
LD 13
Am I too optimistic on the Yellow Peril? Or on UKIP?
What do people think I should go with?
Con 35%
Lets see what happens if we have vote share tie.
That said, I'm expecting the Lib Dem campaign to be all about seats and not national share of the vote.
I'd have UKIP a tad lower.
I'd suggest
CON 35
LAB 34
LD 12
UKIP 14
The poll doesn't cover those seats.
Expecting Lab to be doing really well in those
Edit: This is what I'm talking about
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1m
Columnists meant to provoke but this from Ian Wright...! Bereaved family might just have other stuff to worry about?
pic.twitter.com/ifAT7WNuhI
How about the 30% (I think it was 30%) of Labour VI who would think of changing party between now and the election?
How about the xx% of Labour VI who would consider gong UKIP.
I think as you attract one sector you are inevitably at an increased risk of repelling another segment or portion.
They are all elements, the difference with the RedDems is that they have stated a position, others are in the pending file, and may or may not materialise.
Is this the Lib Lab marginal poll or something ?
'I really can’t stand the way Obama always seems to be hectoring when he talks to me,” Clinton added … “Now we both have favors to ask each other, and it’s going to be very unpleasant. But I’ve got to get this guy to owe me and to be on our side.”'
'On most evenings, Michelle Obama and her trusted adviser, Valerie Jarrett, met in a quiet corner of the White House residence. They’d usually open a bottle of Chardonnay, catch up on news about Sasha and Malia, and gossip about people who gave them heartburn.
Their favorite bête noire was Hillary Clinton, whom they nicknamed “Hildebeest,” after the menacing and shaggy-maned gnu that roams the Serengeti'
'As Bill Clinton went on about his managerial experience, Obama began playing with his Blackberry under the table, making it plain that he wasn’t paying attention to anything Clinton had to say. He was intentionally snubbing Clinton. Others around the table noticed Obama thumbing his Blackberry, and the atmosphere turned even colder than before.'
http://www.bizpacreview.com/2014/06/22/new-book-on-bitter-feud-between-obamas-clintons-i-hate-that-man-obama-more-than-any-man-who-ever-lived-bill-says-127154
There are two elements that will make 2015 a radical departure from the past, one a coalition, and two fixed term.
The expected behaviour of a respondent to a poll when there is no chance of an election is the angry, rebellious, critical, cussed or non conformist. That is why mid term polls vary from election time.
Only time will tell if these voters are as determined in the numbers now seen to vote Labour instead of LibDem. Roberts LibDem niumber of 13 is showing an increase of 4 or 5 from the current position, most of which could come from the current LibDem switchers, making both of us nearly right.
At my old firm we had a model that was great at trading in running 50 Over cricket
When t20 came along we tried to use the same one but it didnt work as well
Now t20 has evolved it is virtually useless
I reckon the same is happening now we have 4 party politics. People dont like to give up their old methods that worked before, hence the value in backing UKIP... took me years to accept that the old t20 program was past its sell by
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/archaeology/historians-reveal-secrets-of-uk-gunrunning-which-lengthened-the-american-civil-war-by-two-years-9557937.html
http://www.rte.ie/news/touch/2014/0623/625874-fianna-fail-europe/
From a clear geopolitical point of view Britain, France, Spain and Mexico had every interest to see the USA split, but supporting slavery was too immoral.
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/frodo-backs-scottish-independence-1-3454065
Con 33%
Lab 32%
UKIP 15%
LD 14%
1) - The party leaders - Cameron is not popular with the Kippers while Miliband and Clegg are not particularly popular with anyone. Yet all 3 are here to stay
2) - No change in policy - Despite "the lessons learned" shtick all politicians come out with after elections, what is actually going to change to meet UKIP voters' concerns? The LDs think UKIP voters are wrong so will do nothing. Ed Miliband thinks UKIP voters are wrong so will do nothing and keep parroting "cost of living crisis". Cameron cannot do anything to assuage UKIP voters due to the Coalition but may try to put things in the next Tory manifesto. The problem is he lacks credibility due to a) not doing anything on these issues in government and b) the fact many people still remember his Hug a Hoodie phase.
3) - UKIP has more resources than 2010 - Thousands of new supporters, new MEPs and candidates, and Paul Sykes' donations.
4) - UKIP will have more TV/press coverage than 2010 - UKIP had virtually no coverage in 2010 and were shut out. Now officially in 2015 UKIP will not be a major party under Electoral Commission rules and won't be entitled to as much coverage as the big 3. However, they should be able to barge their way in (see below). After all UKIP are very good at generating controversy and it is really possible for BBC and Sky to ignore them when that happens?
5) - UKIP ought to have a more credible manifesto - The 2010 manifesto was a joke and even Farage has admitted as much. It has been a millstone around UKIP's necks. The new 2015 manifesto if done well could be an opportunity to win over new voters.
If I was writing it I would start from the principal of "make the Guardian readers angry". In 2010 Cameron tried to woo the Guardian, while Labour and the LDs are close to them too. There is a massive space in the political spectrum to be the anti-Guardian party. Here are my suggestions:
- Cut all foreign aid...
- ...and use the money to cut taxes on alcohol, cigarettes and petrol by 10/20%
- Allow closed smoking rooms in pubs
- No more expensive foreign wars (unless us or a NATO ally attacked)
- Abolish the BBC licence fee and get the BBC to fund itself through advertising
- Ban on new windfarms
Now these policies are not without risk as UKIP would be taking on the powerful health and green lobbies but think of all the publicity! It is also worth remembering that despite government campaigns there are still 10m smokers in the UK many of whom are working class.
Taking on the BBC would also be a risk but bear in mind the BBC loves nothing more than a story about the BBC. It would also make it easier for UKIP to call out any perceived anti-UKIP bias.
"Sunni rebels in Iraq say they have fully captured the country's main oil refinery at Baiji, north of Baghdad."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27990478