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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid
A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away.
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The poll also said that half of kippers might vote for another party, and 63% of dems.
The number who might change their minds overall was also almost half.
It strikes me there are buckets of votes still to play for.
"Eeeh were better in the old days !" 1966 and 1981...
What do you make of reports that Cam will go nuclear if (and when) Juncker gets the top job?
LAB 349 CON 238 LD 34 Other 29 (UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM Less than 10.5 months to go.
Every June poll has Ed is crap is PM
I've bet on it.
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-27970543
Huge credit to Thatcher, who went head to head with a powerful leader, and managed to win serious concessions for a far away place we would no longer own, because she believed in the principles she was fighting for.
I have bet on that .
I staked £20
Last year Labour flatlined after the local elections - this year they are moving modestly back up.
Last year the Conservatives recovered support lost to UKIP quite strongly - this year they are continuing to decline.
Last year UKIP fell back after the election limelight moved on - this year they are maintaining their support.
Last year it looked like the Lib Dems might flatline at around 10% in the polls for ever more - this year they are declining to new depths [perhaps Clegg's defeats to Farage in the debates have done lasting damage].
The Greens also seem to be maintaining a couple of extra percentage points compared to this time last year [perhaps winning more MEPs than the Lib Dems increased their credibility].
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/321969/London_Schools_-_FINAL.pdf
You didn't get a vote for a Greater Manchester mayor, which is what Osborne is - rightly - advocating. You got a vote on a City of Manchester mayor, which covers a tiny sliver of the conurbation and is therefore a pointless enterprise.
That people don't grasp the difference shows what a lousy job the government has made of communicating what should be an exciting and straightforward concept.
As for addressing the concerns of UKIP voters, yes quite. They want a referendum on leaving the EU. They will get one, if the Conservatives have a majority, and may do so even if its a Tory-led coalition. They won't if Ed M is in No 10.
If they don't want their concerns addressed, they can vote UKIP. It's entirely up to them.
I've no idea what they (UKIP supporters and others) will choose; Jack W has great faith in the commonsense of the voters, and hopefully he is right, but we shall see.
http://tinyurl.com/nerodnm
It's been about two and a half years since those heady days when Cameron returned defiant from Europe, so we should have some idea over what the resultant reality has been, as compared to the spin at the time.
PS Not to complain at all: it was actually quite revealing (not least on how Mr Barrosso (sP?) is not to be taken as typical)
I wonder if a Juncker appointment would lead to Labour offering a referendum. I very much doubt it, but the question is there.
Also, Cameron's wanting a vote (on Juncker) for domestic consumption, but if it occurs that will set a precedent for the nation-states (I think) to determine the leader, not the Parliament. That might be a de facto/de jure difference, or not.
I never understood why so many people thought UKIP would suddenly lose support. What Farage and UKIP are saying to millions of ordinary people is very similar to what Enoch Powell said in the late 60s, only without such provocative language.
Like it or not, when Powell made his Birmingham speech, his popularity with the public soared. There are polls from the time to prove this. Even arch enemy Heseltine said that if there was an election the next week, and Powell was Tory leader, he would have won a landslide.
Heath distanced himself from Powell, but not the policy he was supporting in his speech, and that was a big reason the Tories won in 1970.
The diffence this time is that people can vote for the person articulating their views, Farage, rather than by proxy voting for Heath.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/dover/winning-party
Well, some might argue that after 6%, 9% represents the sunlit uplands of hope for the LDs.
Perhaps...
Another dreadful Conservative poll - 28% is an incredibly low number for the party and would be the worst performance by the party in an election under universal suffrage.
Labour have little to crow on with 33% but that would get them home on these numbers while, as the thread topic argues, UKIP remains resilient thus far. The autumn will be the test for them as the Conservatives will doubtless "re-launch" with some UKIP-friendly policies at their Conference (perhaps a defection immediately prior to the Conference).
I'm sure we look good compared to the slow motion car crash that is the Eurozone, but compare us to how we've done since 2008 to other developed economies:
Australia: +18%
New Zealand: +10%
Canada: +9%
Switzerland: +7%
United States: +7%
Norway: +5%
UK: -1%
I know the candidate (winky emoticon)
As I said, Osborne inherited the worst economic position of any major economy and the worst deficit in Europe apart from Greece. His opponents, and especially Labour, said he'd wreck the recovery with his gentle rebalancing of the public finances. In fact we are doing particularly well. If voters want to reverse that progress, well, that's up to them.
I think in the past the Parliament had a lot less say, but there was some incident when they voted down the entire Commission to give themselves more influence, I think.
At the moment we have something of a staring contest where the Parliament are trying to convince the heads of government that they will vote down any candidate other than Juncker, and hoping that most heads of government are not sufficiently bothered to want to face such a confrontation, and Cameron et al are trying to convince the heads of government that they will cause more trouble than the Parliament if they don't get their way.
My understanding was that the EU had three Presidents [of the Commission, the Council and something else?] precisely so it could resolve these sorts of conflicts in a "Juncker is simultaneously the President and not the President of the EU" sort of way, but it appears that Merkel is left trying to decide which side in the argument will be easier to mollify after they have been forced to accept a chastening defeat.
Sweden: 8.0%
Canada: 7.0%
UK: 6.6%
USA: 6.3%
Iceland: 5.9%
New Zealand: 6.0%
Australia: 5.8%
South Korea: 3.7%
Japan: 3.6%
Norway: 3.3%
Switzerland: 3.0%
"And less reliance on the "service sector" than the UK."
It is our reliance on these things that makes booms and busts more severe than for other nations.
Where are we on the "underemployment statistics"?
(basically "slack" in the economy)
I actually think Osborne's done a reasonable job. It's just not the miracle that you claim it is. The rebalancing of the public financing was needed, he just did it too soon. The recovery has also been too dependent on consumption rather than investment.
Fundamentally, we have been through a secular decline in the size of the global financial sector. While this may well be a good thing in and of itself, to look at headline numbers without talking into account the relative weight of financial services produces a misleading result
"The recovery has also been too dependent on consumption rather than investment."
Cheap money has meant a lot of investment. but possibly not the type the country needs.
99 overs with England's batting line up - no way a draw without rain.
Said what? and is litigation for breach of copyright an issue?
I am a Labour 2010 voter and I know I will not be tempted back.. why should I be an atypical UKIP supporter?
Do you still vote Kipper to end up with Miliband and no referendum ?
Australia: +12%
New Zealand: +10%
South Korea: +8%
Japan: +7%
Canada: +6%
USA: +6%
Iceland: +6%
Norway: +5%
Sweden: +5%
Switzerland: +4%
UK: +4%
"Mr. Socrates, worth mentioning Canada and Australia both suffered relatively little because they actually had rather better financial regulation and economic management than the UK."
This was the point I was replying to MD. Pointing out that financial regulation and economic management are only part of the story when it came to scale.
Cameron has said that he will keep open door immigration even if we leave the EU.. restricting benefits etc is a sticking plaster on a broken leg.
Plus I dont agree with many of his other policies.
But we shall see!
Cameron not only wants open door immigration from the EU. He wants to expand that open access to 74 million Turks.
Look up the GDP increase compared to "assets", and ask yourself why Spain can borrow at nearly the same rate as the uk
Whose fault is it that hole was created in the first place?
Thinking about this theme further, does anyone have the comparison stats based on growth from the bottom of the hole for each country?
I shall endeavor to remember that in future MD.
Easy to say the odds dont matter when youve had a bad bet
As for your last comment, the reason our borrowing rate is similar to Spain is because the effect of higher economic growth in the UK makes up for the effect of better credit worthiness. Non-economics only look at the latter and forget about the former effect.
I criticised Tories for doing this four years ago and I'm criticising Labourites for doing it now.
Can someone do a rain dance, please!
Free money today really going against Eng - at least there's footie tomorrow...oh.
This afternoon I was thinking "even Jade Dernbach might be an improvement on our team" that's how bad it got.
Eng +41.59
SL +43.48
Draw +44.38
England earlier at 1.89 was the biggest lay I've ever seen in all my days.
Those who thought that the Euro was such economic madness that it must ultimately fail (which included me last year) have been proved wrong. Economics really can be trumped by politics if the will is strong enough.
I should have listened to Robert and his anti AEP indicator
Why be surprised?
You have to laugh, otherwise you'd cry.