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A fractured SNP will struggle to campaign at full-throttle – politicalbetting.com

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  • I'm surprised you're so against Private Eye. In recent years it has done more than any other outlet to investigate and report on the misdeeds and corruption of the powerful - government contracts, the media, finance and so on. For example, its coverage of the Grenfell scandal has been excellent. There are also some genuinely funny cartoons and satire, in among the more childish stuff.
    Yep, I blow hot and cold about the Eye but I actually think that being grumpy reactionaries adds punch to their undoubtedly valuable filleting of various governments and the great and the good. They could probably do with looking at the mote in their own eye a bit more frequently, Hislop seems quite comfy in his nook in the establishment.
  • Charles said:

    Wasn’t there one in the 70s as well?
    No.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited February 2021
    Stocky said:

    I agree with all that @kinabalu as long as you are talking about gender (which I think you are).

    Live and let live - I agree. As a liberal ... toleration - I`m committed to it ideologically. Tick tick. In fact more than toleration from me - actual support I`d say. I`m all for the "eccentrics charter" that conservatives bash liberalism for being.

    They don`t get to change sex though. No - that`s different. For example, they don`t get to go back into history and change birth certificates, mutilate healthy tissue from the public purse, insist on participating in women`s sport or crucify people for "deadnaming" them. They can claim they are women, identify as women but they only get to BE women in terms of gender and not in term of sex.
    Unless I misunderstand you that is straight from Rod Liddle on Question Time a couple of years ago when he spoke on this. At first sight it appears liberal but it isn't. Because you're not actually tolerating anything there, are you? You're just saying men can go around pretending to be women if they want to. Or put another way, if a man wants to pretend he's a woman, or vice versa, you won't pass a law against it. That's hardly a particularly liberal position given that only a very intrusive and authoritarian state indeed would pass such a law.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    I find it amusing that Brexiteers constantly bleat about how if the EU was capable of reforming the EU then Britain probably would have stayed.

    However Westminster also seems to have the same incapability of reforming the union in response to the Scottish question.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    No.
    Checked - was thinking of the devolution referendum of 79
  • I'm surprised you're so against Private Eye. In recent years it has done more than any other outlet to investigate and report on the misdeeds and corruption of the powerful - government contracts, the media, finance and so on. For example, its coverage of the Grenfell scandal has been excellent. There are also some genuinely funny cartoons and satire, in among the more childish stuff.
    But Ian Hislop and Private Eye were one of the biggest boosters for Andrew Wakefield's MMR bullshit.

    They even published a 32 page special on why Wakefield is right.

    Hislop and Private Eye have blood on their hands.

    If Hislop had any sense of honour or decency he would have resigned years ago for his shameless boosterism, remember the BMJ said the Eye's reporting was dangerous.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    Exactly.
    The hysteria about the possibility of Scotland inflicting indy refs on the wise, generous but long suffering English (current count, one in 314 years) is definitely akin to the 'perverts with dicks must only use men's toilets' obsession.
    Yep, not to go all big-headed but I hit "post" on that one with a real 'smug city' flourish. Not only a good analogy but fusing the 2 hot thread topics (sindy and trans) into one.

    I should retire from PB at this point. :smile:
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    kinabalu said:

    Unless I misunderstand you that is straight from Rod Liddle on Question Time a couple of years ago when he spoke on this. At first sight it appears liberal but it isn't. Because you're not actually tolerating anything there, are you? You're just saying men can go around pretending to be women if they want to. Or put another way, if a man wants to pretend he's a woman, or vice versa, you won't pass a law against it. That's hardly a particularly liberal position given that only a very intrusive and authoritarian state indeed would pass such a law.
    I`d say identifying rather than pretending.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507

    I find it amusing that Brexiteers constantly bleat about how if the EU was capable of reforming the EU then Britain probably would have stayed.

    However Westminster also seems to have the same incapability of reforming the union in response to the Scottish question.

    Probably because the one thing Westminster doesn't want to consider is the English question.
  • But Ian Hislop and Private Eye were one of the biggest boosters for Andrew Wakefield's MMR bullshit.

    They even published a 32 page special on why Wakefield is right.

    Hislop and Private Eye have blood on their hands.

    If Hislop had any sense of honour or decency he would have resigned years ago for his shameless boosterism, remember the BMJ said the Eye's reporting was dangerous.
    Covering at least a couple of bases here.

    https://youtu.be/yZymBti7700
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108

    Good afternoon everyone. I have serious doubts whether the SNP will win an overall majority in May (assuming the election goes ahead). The Scottish media, and remember they are overwhelmingly anti SNP, will be holding fire on the Sturgeon/Salmond battle until they think they can cause maximum damage. I believe there will be enough evidence to topple Sturgeon. Probably at the start of the official campaign, when it will be too late to replace her. The election will be fought on the media, social and traditional. This will negate the SNP’s traditional advantages in knocking doors, leafletting, street stalls, etc.
    The trans activists will continue to publicly vilify anyone who doesn’t wholeheartedly support them, irrespective of the damage they do to their own party.
    Unless something changes, traditional SNP voters may abstain, especially on the list.
    Labour will have the publicity boost of a new leader. If Monica Lennon wins, she could pick up votes from ex Labour voters who have switched to the SNP. Anas Sarwar would be less likely to do so, being part of the old guard that scunnered the ex Labour voters.
    The Conservatives will lose votes and seats in fishing and farming areas.
    I would lay an SNP overall majority. Labour for second place looks good value.
    Someone upthread was asking about a QC. Joanna Cherry is a QC.
    I don’t think the Sturgeons will survive. Unfortunately, things are going to get even more messy. I don’t think there will be a request for a Section 30 order before 2024.

    A few days ago I put my first modest bet on NOM for the Holyrood election.

    The recent public launch of the ISP, if properly presented, will limit the maximum extent of SNP power, but more importantly could visibly reduce the numbers and influence of unionist opposition.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,480

    Here are Conservative candidates for the Senedd who want its abolition.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-55690643
    I have to confess I was vaguely aware of an abolitionist undercurrent in some parts of the Welsh Conservatives but I wasn't aware it was anywhere near Party policy.

    There is a possibility (some may put it stronger) Labour will drop further at the Senedd elections and open the door for an alternative Welsh Government - is a Conservative/PC coalition a serious possibility? The fragmentation of the opposition suggests forming a majority against Labour won't be easy (let alone the 2 Abolitionists already in the Senedd).
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    Charles said:

    Wasn’t there one in the 70s as well?
    That was a Devref iirc.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    kle4 said:

    It's a murky factional squabble with, at present, unclear details of exactly what if anything has definitely been done wrong. Its hard to get over invested in it yet.
    I disagree - it is abundantly clear how the investigation against Salmond was flawed and prejudiced. The only murkiness is how the suppression of evidence of this has been allowed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Fishing said:

    Probably because the one thing Westminster doesn't want to consider is the English question.
    Exactly. The asymmetric nature of the current devolution settlement, is a huge problem with most proposed reforms to the devolved administrations. There needs to be an English Parliament with an English First Minister.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    The polls are clear that the most fundamental change to British politics in 50 years, Brexit, has influenced Scottish attitudes to independence. Especially considering that Scotland voted overwhelmingly to Remain compared to rUK.

    Wilful disregard of this fact is just dishonest. There's clearly a new case for independence, especially when all the promises made by the UK government during and after the 2014 referendum have been broken.

    If Scotland voted to stay in the UK despite everything then there will be no logical, rational, or moral case for another referendum for the foreseeable future.

    The one way to secure the Union long term is to win IndyRef 2! This is a fantastic opportunity for unionism.
    Yep. That's the right mindset imo.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    Sandpit said:

    Exactly. The asymmetric nature of the current devolution settlement, is a huge problem with most proposed reforms to the devolved administrations. There needs to be an English Parliament with an English First Minister.
    Without a doubt this also needs to be answered as part of the same process.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    HYUFD said:

    Scots did accept that in 2014, a once in a generation vote
    Repeating a partisan interpretation constantly doesn’t make it correct or definitive.
  • Mr. Sandpit and Mr. Fishing, I agree entirely (thought I'd already posted that, but apparently not).

    Ceding more power to Scotland while England has no corresponding Parliament (a strange and mystical concept that the political and media class seems unable to comprehend let alone actually support) would perhaps open a door, ironically, for an English independence campaign.

    Ms. Sarissa, when is the next Holyrood election due?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FPT. Re Mike's comments at the end of the article about Biden being happy about the Republicans potentially splitting, I think that is a classic case of be careful what you wish for. A Trump stand alone party would be able to cast off the need to moderate its message on, let's say, wealth distribution because it wouldn't be focused on corporate donors as the GOP is. There's also the potential for a stand alone party to attract socially conservative voters in non-white groups - Hispanics would be an obvious target group but, while the Black coalition generally held for the Democrats, it didn't appear to do so much amongst younger Black men.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:

    I have to confess I was vaguely aware of an abolitionist undercurrent in some parts of the Welsh Conservatives but I wasn't aware it was anywhere near Party policy.

    There is a possibility (some may put it stronger) Labour will drop further at the Senedd elections and open the door for an alternative Welsh Government - is a Conservative/PC coalition a serious possibility? The fragmentation of the opposition suggests forming a majority against Labour won't be easy (let alone the 2 Abolitionists already in the Senedd).
    1. Plaid won't get into bed with the Tories
    2. Plaid and the Tories are both bit-part players - consequently
    3. Labour will lead the Welsh Government, for all practical purposes, forever

    The only live question is whether Welsh Labour sticks with the English party, or eventually splits off and turns itself into a pro-independence movement after Scotland eventually goes. On that subject, they've already started selecting some openly pro-secession candidates, so the direction of travel seems clear. It's only a matter of time.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108

    Any news of what transpired at wee Alex’s urgently-called 1pm meeting?
    They were told to read Wings or Craig Murray’s blogs for full details withheld from them?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    stodge said:

    I have to confess I was vaguely aware of an abolitionist undercurrent in some parts of the Welsh Conservatives but I wasn't aware it was anywhere near Party policy.

    There is a possibility (some may put it stronger) Labour will drop further at the Senedd elections and open the door for an alternative Welsh Government - is a Conservative/PC coalition a serious possibility? The fragmentation of the opposition suggests forming a majority against Labour won't be easy (let alone the 2 Abolitionists already in the Senedd).
    No.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    1. Plaid won't get into bed with the Tories
    2. Plaid and the Tories are both bit-part players - consequently
    3. Labour will lead the Welsh Government, for all practical purposes, forever

    The only live question is whether Welsh Labour sticks with the English party, or eventually splits off and turns itself into a pro-independence movement after Scotland eventually goes. On that subject, they've already started selecting some openly pro-secession candidates, so the direction of travel seems clear. It's only a matter of time.
    Also no.
  • Without a doubt this also needs to be answered as part of the same process.
    Nah. The Union would die the first time the English PM was prevented from doing something. Our Union only works if England is bound into, and accepts the equal votes of the citizens of, the other nations. Make England an identifiable political entity and the Union dies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,210
    The total for the UK will be higher than it was a week ago.
  • Sandpit said:

    Exactly. The asymmetric nature of the current devolution settlement, is a huge problem with most proposed reforms to the devolved administrations. There needs to be an English Parliament with an English First Minister.
    Better get an English party to propose it so English people can vote for it then.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited February 2021

    Without a doubt this also needs to be answered as part of the same process.
    There is only one way to get to an English Parliament and that is through the complete destruction of the British state. Otherwise it ain't happening.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507

    Nah. The Union would die the first time the English PM was prevented from doing something. Our Union only works if England is bound into, and accepts the equal votes of the citizens of, the other nations. Make England an identifiable political entity and the Union dies.
    I'm not sure that's true - other nations have federal structures and survive somehow.

    As long as there is a clear demarcation of powers and a robust mechanism for resolving disputes I think the Union could survive.

    And if the only way it can survive is by having a blatantly botched and unsatisfactory devolution settlement, under constant attack from Scotland, well, maybe it's doomed whatever we do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107
    Such a beautiful spring day; hard to believe a beast is coming.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,304
    edited February 2021
    stodge said:

    I have to confess I was vaguely aware of an abolitionist undercurrent in some parts of the Welsh Conservatives but I wasn't aware it was anywhere near Party policy.

    There is a possibility (some may put it stronger) Labour will drop further at the Senedd elections and open the door for an alternative Welsh Government - is a Conservative/PC coalition a serious possibility? The fragmentation of the opposition suggests forming a majority against Labour won't be easy (let alone the 2 Abolitionists already in the Senedd).
    Likely to be Labour/ PC I would have thought. Labour could fall further than anticipated due to a disastrous Covid-19 response, with Wales on massive per capita deaths and a vaccination programme which is barely off the ground.

    The Conservatives' Covid performance in England is often compared and contrasted very, very favourably with the dire performance in Wales on the nightly local news. BBC Wales, which appears to be very pro-PC also highlights the reality that Covid has consumed the NHS here in Wales, whereas in England, regular treatments seem to be ticking along nicely alongside the Covid work.

    The hapless bar-leaning Tory leader Paul Davies has also been replaced with the popular (not with me) Andrew R.T. Davies. So all in all, RT in place and Boris Johnson's strong Covid performance, it is looking good for the Tories. Adam Price is saying all the right things as PC leader, but his eyebrows are far too bushy to be taken seriously.

    Oh, and Wayne Pivac is leading Welsh rugby to humiliating lows on Drakeford's watch.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    In answer to David's question (thanks again for another excellent header by the way) , perhaps the SNP won't be at full throttle. But when the competition is a group of clapped out old bangers, do you need to?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Better get an English party to propose it so English people can vote for it then.
    A canny UK government might propose a wide-ranging constitutional convention to look at all these issues, as well as the structure and role of the existing Commons and Lords, and local and devolved government, with the intention of devolving power down as far towards the people as it possible.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    The total for the UK will be higher than it was a week ago.
    England was up to 600k per day wasn't it?
  • sarissa said:

    They were told to read Wings or Craig Murray’s blogs for full details withheld from them?
    Narrator: despite the hysteria tweeting of Queen of Drama Cole-Hamilton, no such meeting took place.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure that's true - other nations have federal structures and survive somehow.

    As long as there is a clear demarcation of powers and a robust mechanism for resolving disputes I think the Union could survive.

    And if the only way it can survive is by having a blatantly botched and unsatisfactory devolution settlement, under constant attack from Scotland, well, maybe it's doomed whatever we do.
    A constituent state with 85% of the population? I can't see it working at all.
  • Fishing said:

    I'm not sure that's true - other nations have federal structures and survive somehow.

    As long as there is a clear demarcation of powers and a robust mechanism for resolving disputes I think the Union could survive.

    And if the only way it can survive is by having a blatantly botched and unsatisfactory devolution settlement, under constant attack from Scotland, well, maybe it's doomed whatever we do.
    We’re too unequal. The English FM would have almost the same mandate as the U.K. PM, but no interest in looking after Scotland, Wales or NI. The only way it would work would be to base it on the English regions, but we saw what happened in the North East when Prescott tried to go down that route.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    edited February 2021

    Without a doubt this also needs to be answered as part of the same process.
    Equally without a doubt it won't be, though.

    Labour only grant devolution to Labour-voting parts of the country.
    The Conservatives don't like constitutional tinkering. especially when they're in power, and have an ideological attachment to the Union.
    The LibDems are irrelevant.
    The civil service would see it as hollowing out its powers.
    The English grassroots don't really care.

    So I'm afraid we're stuck with Blair's botched, unsatisfactory settlement for a while yet unless the Scots finally put it out of its misery.
  • Mr. Booth, why not?

    And what would your alternative proposition be?
  • Fishing said:

    I'm not sure that's true - other nations have federal structures and survive somehow.

    As long as there is a clear demarcation of powers and a robust mechanism for resolving disputes I think the Union could survive.

    And if the only way it can survive is by having a blatantly botched and unsatisfactory devolution settlement, under constant attack from Scotland, well, maybe it's doomed whatever we do.
    Which other nations with federal structures have one member six times the size by population of all the other members put together?
  • Sandpit said:

    A canny UK government might propose a wide-ranging constitutional convention to look at all these issues, as well as the structure and role of the existing Commons and Lords, and local and devolved government, with the intention of devolving power down as far towards the people as it possible.
    Kinda lost you at 'A canny UK government'..
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507

    We’re too unequal. The English FM would have almost the same mandate as the U.K. PM, but no interest in looking after Scotland, Wales or NI. The only way it would work would be to base it on the English regions, but we saw what happened in the North East when Prescott tried to go down that route.
    I don't think the regions route would work, because English people identify with England. You can't have a democracy without a demos.

    As to the mandate the English FM/Governor would have, I think it's fine as long as it is confined to certain issues (or that of the UK Prime Minister is), and as long as there is a Constitutional Court which adjudicates any disputes and whose rulings command respect.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Stocky said:

    I`d say identifying rather than pretending.
    Ok. Important shade of difference since it implies you wouldn't point and laugh. But the essence is the same. The inference is that 'gender' is superficial and performative rather than internal and profound. This cuts across the generally accepted notion of what transgender means - and transpeople would say denies it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,304
    Fishing said:

    Equally without a doubt it won't be, though.

    Labour only grant devolution to Labour-voting parts of the country.
    The Conservatives don't like constitutional tinkering. especially when they're in power, and have an ideological attachment to the Union.
    The LibDems are irrelevant.
    The civil service would see it as hollowing out its powers.
    The English grassroots don't really care.

    So I'm afraid we're stuck with Blair's botched, unsatisfactory settlement for a while yet unless the Scots finally put it out of its misery.
    "The Conservatives don't like constitutional tinkering. especially when they're in power, and have an ideological attachment to the Union".

    That's a cracker! It's the way you tell 'em!
  • Fishing said:

    I don't think the regions route would work, because English people identify with England. You can't have a democracy without a demos.

    As to the mandate the English FM/Governor would have, I think it's fine as long as it is confined to certain issues (or that of the UK Prime Minister is), and as long as there is a Constitutional Court which adjudicates any disputes and whose rulings command respect.
    The elections would have to be out of sequence to manage the numbers, so suppose the English FM has a narrow Tory majority but the U.K. Government is a Labour one and relies on Scottish and Welsh Labour MPs.

    In that scenario, if the U.K. PM took a decision the English FM opposed on something significant (e.g. suppose it was Covid and the vaccine rollout) then the Union would collapse. No court could save it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Excellent start from Southampton. Nearly 3 minutes in and still have 11 players on the park and no goals conceded.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507

    The elections would have to be out of sequence to manage the numbers, so suppose the English FM has a narrow Tory majority but the U.K. Government is a Labour one and relies on Scottish and Welsh Labour MPs.

    In that scenario, if the U.K. PM took a decision the English FM opposed on something significant (e.g. suppose it was Covid and the vaccine rollout) then the Union would collapse. No court could save it.
    Why would the elections have to be out of sequence? What numbers do you mean?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    DavidL said:

    Excellent start from Southampton. Nearly 3 minutes in and still have 11 players on the park and no goals conceded.

    Alternatively, terrible start from Newcastle.
  • Mr. Leave, suppose a UK PM took a decision the Scottish FM opposed on something significant.

    The same question arises. If that is unanswerable then the logical conclusions are to abandon devolution or support the break-up of the UK. Not to say devolution is ok for the Welsh and Scottish but not the English.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited February 2021
    Sandpit said:

    Exactly. The asymmetric nature of the current devolution settlement, is a huge problem with most proposed reforms to the devolved administrations. There needs to be an English Parliament with an English First Minister.
    Devolution is by definition asymmetric. It transfers power from the centre but none the other way.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    kinabalu said:

    Devolution is by definition asymmetric. It transfers power from the centre but none the other way.
    It doesn't have to be asymmetric between those devolved to, however.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited February 2021
    Fishing said:

    Why would the elections have to be out of sequence? What numbers do you mean?
    U.K. versus English elections. They’d be unlikely to happen in the same year (though having in the same year would reduce the chance of very different results) so you’d quite often have U.K. and English PMs of different parties, particularly under a U.K. Labour government. It would be a frequent constitutional nightmare.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,335
    edited February 2021

    "The Conservatives don't like constitutional tinkering. especially when they're in power, and have an ideological attachment to the Union".

    That's a cracker! It's the way you tell 'em!
    Who can forget Douglas Home's promise that if Scots voted against Devo in 1979 the Tories would offer a better bill, only for that promise to disappear like snow aff a dyke? Now that's what I call aversion to constitutional tinkering!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507

    U.K. versus English elections. They’d be unlikely to happen in the same year (though having in the same year would reduce the chance of very different results) so you’d quite often have U.K. and English PMs of different parties, particularly under a U.K. Labour government. It would be a frequent constitutional nightmare.
    There's nothing to stop them being on the same day. Americans often vote for a dozen different representatives on the same day. Two here (or more if local elections) should be manageable.
  • Mr. Leave, suppose a UK PM took a decision the Scottish FM opposed on something significant.

    The same question arises. If that is unanswerable then the logical conclusions are to abandon devolution or support the break-up of the UK. Not to say devolution is ok for the Welsh and Scottish but not the English.

    I think the difference in scales means that if you must have devolution (I wouldn’t start from here) you can usually (possibly always) find a way to keep Scotland or Wales content by being different. Because of the size differential, you can’t fudge it with England.
  • IanB2 said:

    Such a beautiful spring day; hard to believe a beast is coming.

    I’m not sure early February counts as spring, particularly when the temperature is below 280.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    edited February 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Such a beautiful spring day; hard to believe a beast is coming.

    It has been raining non-stop all day week here on Tyneside.
  • Fishing said:

    There's nothing to stop them being on the same day. Americans often vote for a dozen different representatives on the same day. Two here (or more if local elections) should be manageable.
    I’m not sure. We’ve got to a lot of trouble to ensure devolved elections don’t happen in the same years as Westminster ones.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Fishing said:

    It doesn't have to be asymmetric between those devolved to, however.
    But if you devolve power from the centre to something that previously had almost all the power you are not devolving much.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    I’m not sure early February counts as spring, particularly when the temperature is below 280.

    Kelvin in every day parlance!? What is this monstrosity?
  • I’m not sure early February counts as spring, particularly when the temperature is below 280.

    280? Have we switched to using Kelvin?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    Mr. Leave, suppose a UK PM took a decision the Scottish FM opposed on something significant.

    The same question arises. If that is unanswerable then the logical conclusions are to abandon devolution or support the break-up of the UK. Not to say devolution is ok for the Welsh and Scottish but not the English.

    But England dominates Westminster.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    And Newcastle score @DavidL. Poor Southampton.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    I see that GSK has signed a deal to produce CureVac and pretty much to own CureVac 2.0 if and when it comes along. I see GSK's vaccine production plants are in Belgium, Germany, US and Hungary. I wonder if given Vaccine Wars if they plan any production capacity in the UK.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Been pissing it down since before I got up. Glad it's due to stop soon.

    FYI for an American, your declaration above - at first glance anyway - is both startling AND disturbing!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    It’s good there is a confirmed view on this from the SNP.

    Sindy advocates should be forced to articulate precisely what independence will look like; that’s one of the lessons of the Brexit vote.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    edited February 2021
    TimT said:

    I see that GSK has signed a deal to produce CureVac and pretty much to own CureVac 2.0 if and when it comes along. I see GSK's vaccine production plants are in Belgium, Germany, US and Hungary. I wonder if given Vaccine Wars if they plan any production capacity in the UK.
    GSK have never done much vaccine production in the UK. They tend to do the bulk manufacturing in Wavre (which is massive) and then maybe some final fill at Barnard Castle.

    I doubt that will change.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,304

    Who can forget Douglas Home's promise that if Scots voted against Devo in 1979 the Tories would offer a better bill, only for that promise to disappear like snow aff a dyke? Now that's what I call aversion to constitutional tinkering!
    I nearly died laughing at the "idealogical attachment to the Union" comment.

    Maybe, 'Conservatives have an emotional attachment to the union, when in power, but are quite happy to see the Union disintegrate on their watch, so long as it only collapses fully, the moment they fall from power', would be more appropriate. HYUFD for one would be cool with that.
  • Mr. Irish2, if it makes you feel better, it's started to ease at last.

    The river running outside my house has become a little less powerful.

    Mr. kinabalu, aye, and yet MPs representing Scottish constituencies can vote on English and Welsh taxes, which can then be amended in Scotland by MSPs.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    edited February 2021

    I’m not sure. We’ve got to a lot of trouble to ensure devolved elections don’t happen in the same years as Westminster ones.
    Still it's not inherent. But holding them on the same day doesn't, of course, guarantee that the English and the UK leaders would always be the same party, especially if the English split their tickets.

    Also what would happen if there's a snap election in England? Would there have to be a snap election in the UK too? Not clear.

    But any constitutional settlement will have inconsistencies, anomalies and places where you just have to hope for the best. When I'm unsure which option to prefer, I generally choose the most democractic one, and in that case I think that's a parliament for England. If it helps to keep the Union together, fine, but I'd rather the Union fall apart because it tried to extend more democracy to 85% of its citizens, rather than because it suppressed it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,304

    And Newcastle score @DavidL. Poor Southampton.

    The Graeme Jones effect. Poor Steve Bruce!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    Newcastle 2 - 0 Southampton :D:D
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    TimT said:

    I see that GSK has signed a deal to produce CureVac and pretty much to own CureVac 2.0 if and when it comes along. I see GSK's vaccine production plants are in Belgium, Germany, US and Hungary. I wonder if given Vaccine Wars if they plan any production capacity in the UK.
    It's a bit off of the FT to split the world into UK / EU / US / Other, when "Other" makes up about 2/3 of the whole.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    kinabalu said:

    But England dominates Westminster.
    In 1950, 1964, February 1974, 2010 and 2017 the Tories won a majority in England but not in the UK.

    In 1950, 1964 and 1974 England voted Tory but got a Labour government thanks to Scottish and Welsh Labour MPs
  • It’s good there is a confirmed view on this from the SNP.

    Sindy advocates should be forced to articulate precisely what independence will look like; that’s one of the lessons of the Brexit vote.
    A Scottish Pound is the only viable currency solution, at least unless or until they can join the Single Currency if they plan to do that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    Newcastle 2 - 0 Southampton :D:D

    May have gotten ahead of myself.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    We’re too unequal. The English FM would have almost the same mandate as the U.K. PM, but no interest in looking after Scotland, Wales or NI. The only way it would work would be to base it on the English regions, but we saw what happened in the North East when Prescott tried to go down that route.
    You go own the route of the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms but split London from Mercia
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247

    May have gotten ahead of myself.
    Bednarek the own goal specialist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited February 2021
    Fishing said:

    Equally without a doubt it won't be, though.

    Labour only grant devolution to Labour-voting parts of the country.
    The Conservatives don't like constitutional tinkering. especially when they're in power, and have an ideological attachment to the Union.
    The LibDems are irrelevant.
    The civil service would see it as hollowing out its powers.
    The English grassroots don't really care.

    So I'm afraid we're stuck with Blair's botched, unsatisfactory settlement for a while yet unless the Scots finally put it out of its misery.
    I expect if Starmer becomes PM in 2024 he will appoint Brown to head a constitutional Grand Commission which will likely recommend devomax for Holyrood and regional assemblies for England.

    He will then allow a legal indyref2 on that basis. None of that will happen under the Tories however (though personally I would be happy with an English Parliament and devomax for Scotland)
  • Mr. Irish2, if it makes you feel better, it's started to ease at last.

    The river running outside my house has become a little less powerful.

    Mr. kinabalu, aye, and yet MPs representing Scottish constituencies can vote on English and Welsh taxes, which can then be amended in Scotland by MSPs.

    My first take on your "pissing" commentary, was that you were in some severe internal distress.

    Then I realized you just meant it was raining VERY hard. Hope you are ok on (reasonably) dry ground.

    Was once in the middle of a flash flood, many years ago in West Virginia. It was an amazing, awesome, terrifying sight. We were in a house on a hilltop so were OK. But neighbors down stream had the ground floor of their house flooded, with zero warning.
  • kinabalu said:

    Devolution is by definition asymmetric. It transfers power from the centre but none the other way.

    Kelvin in every day parlance!? What is this monstrosity?
    Some people say they have gone metric: I mean it.
  • It’s good there is a confirmed view on this from the SNP.

    Sindy advocates should be forced to articulate precisely what independence will look like; that’s one of the lessons of the Brexit vote.
    I think we need a bit more detail than "new currency a few months after independence".......
  • I nearly died laughing at the "idealogical attachment to the Union" comment.

    Maybe, 'Conservatives have an emotional attachment to the union, when in power, but are quite happy to see the Union disintegrate on their watch, so long as it only collapses fully, the moment they fall from power', would be more appropriate. HYUFD for one would be cool with that.
    The Conservative and Disunionist Party
  • Mr. HYUFD, entirely possible.

    Slicing England into bits remains wretched and unacceptable. Better no devolution than permanently embedding political dividing lines within England.

    Mr. Irish2, nice and high, even in the 2007 floods things were alright. Unfortunately, months of building work next door appears to have diverted some spring water beneath the house, so I was rather more anxious this time.
  • MattW said:

    It's a bit off of the FT to split the world into UK / EU / US / Other, when "Other" makes up about 2/3 of the whole.
    Bloomberg have a good breakdown of "who has ordered what":

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/contracts-purchasing-agreements.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited February 2021

    Mr. HYUFD, entirely possible.

    Slicing England into bits remains wretched and unacceptable. Better no devolution than permanently embedding political dividing lines within England.

    Mr. Irish2, nice and high, even in the 2007 floods things were alright. Unfortunately, months of building work next door appears to have diverted some spring water beneath the house, so I was rather more anxious this time.

    It was what Labour always wanted to do.

    New Labour tried to push through elected regional assemblies but the North East which was first up rejected them led by one Dominic Cummings.

    If Labour get in again they will not make the same mistake, they will impose regional assemblies on England without a referendum
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822
    TimT said:

    I see that GSK has signed a deal to produce CureVac and pretty much to own CureVac 2.0 if and when it comes along. I see GSK's vaccine production plants are in Belgium, Germany, US and Hungary. I wonder if given Vaccine Wars if they plan any production capacity in the UK.
    Yes, the government has already said that their deal with CureVac includes a domestic manufacturing requirement so I'm guessing GSK will onshore it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    Mr. HYUFD, entirely possible.

    Slicing England into bits remains wretched and unacceptable. Better no devolution than permanently embedding political dividing lines within England.

    Mr. Irish2, nice and high, even in the 2007 floods things were alright. Unfortunately, months of building work next door appears to have diverted some spring water beneath the house, so I was rather more anxious this time.

    It's nothing we haven't done before. The 70s saw political dividing lines embedded within England with local government reorganisation and it continues today with these "Metro mayors" For example, the "North of Tyne" mayor who doesn't even oversee a "Metro area".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited February 2021
    Re GSK curevac deal with the government, plan is for UK based manufacturing....

    If approved, any vaccines that come out of the deal will be distributed in the U.K. and its overseas and dependent territories. The agreement includes an initial supply of 50 million doses of variant vaccines, with plans to manufacture them in the U.K.
    https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/u-k-government-taps-curevac-to-target-covid-19-variants-new-vaccines
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Fishing said:
    California had a movement for independence and to secede from the Union when Trump was President, now Biden is President it seems Texas has the same
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    Mr. Irish2, if it makes you feel better, it's started to ease at last.

    The river running outside my house has become a little less powerful.

    Mr. kinabalu, aye, and yet MPs representing Scottish constituencies can vote on English and Welsh taxes, which can then be amended in Scotland by MSPs.

    There are micro areas of valid English grievance but the macro - the big picture - is nevertheless that Westminster rules the UK and England dominates Westminster.
  • I think we need a bit more detail than "new currency a few months after independence".......
    'We'?
  • Mr. Gate, not the same.

    Scotland has Holyrood. And England has?

    Scotland has devolved powers regarding income tax levels, transport, health, and education. Will England have the equivalent? Not without a Parliament.

    And just what is the problem with devolving those powers and reducing the Commons to Defence, some Treasury, Foreign, and some Home affairs?

    Mr. Fishing, there are occasional mutterings about California leaving. Doubt it'll happen. Power in the US has shifted over time from the states to the centre, as per the EU. In the UK, it's the other way around.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    I repeat: IndyRef2 is a great opportunity for unionism and reborn Brexit Britain. It's an opportunity to finally draw a line under the Scottish Independence issue, or to move forward as England & Wales (and NI lol). Otherwise it's just going to continue bubbling underneath.

    However, the Government and Westminster needs to be prepared to cede permanent power to the Scottish Parliament as part of a new union settlement if that would indeed make a difference. They need to give the Scottish Parliament power to veto certain things Westminster wants to do. I know that's painful for unionists but otherwise DevoMax is a waste of time.

    Like what? We already have an exceptionally large number of devolved matters where the Scottish Parliament can do what they like and Westminster has no say. The Health Service, benefits, education, social care, police and justice, capital investment, pretty much all the big spenders of government except defence and foreign aid. The Scottish Parliament has the right to vary some taxes and has done so in rather timid ways. We are already in devomax territory.

    The fantasy that Holyrood is under the thumb of Westminster in any material way is just SNP propaganda. It's just not true. The apparent right of Scottish MPs to vote on such matters in England is much more of an issue and a consequence of the unbalanced devolution settlement Blair created.

    The financial division of those taxes not devolved is also very favourable to Scotland with Barnett differentials being added to any new increase in spending in England. I think the extent of this favoritism is already at the limits of what is democratically acceptable.

    I genuinely struggle to see what is left for yet more devolution. If we had a Scottish government that was interested in using the powers it has rather than trying to create more grievances there would be a real chance of addressing the serious structural problems in our economy in a way that might make the north of England jealous.
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