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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid
A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away.
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FPT...
The poll also said that half of kippers might vote for another party, and 63% of dems.
The number who might change their minds overall was also almost half.
It strikes me there are buckets of votes still to play for.0 -
in absentia? how disappointing...0
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I think it's a bit early to expect any effect. The next general election comes down to a choice (and a very important one), and voters can either make that choice, or stick their collective heads in the sand. They don't, however, have any great incentive to make that choice yet, certainly not when replying to opinion pollsters.0
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Do we know the % of 'Might change mind' at this stage in 2009? Or in 2011/12/13? Because while I think taffys makes a good point, what's struck me for the past three years is the stability of the polls (hence why I think the Tories won't get the swingback they need to win).0
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Kipper vote held up by poor England WC and cricket performances ?
"Eeeh were better in the old days !" 1966 and 1981...
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I never pay much attention to the "will you change your mind" question.taffys said:FPT...
The poll also said that half of kippers might vote for another party, and 63% of dems.
The number who might change their minds overall was also almost half.
It strikes me there are buckets of votes still to play for.
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The Greens wont get 7% and UKIP wont get 17% next year.0
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If you wanted to force people into a choice between two discredited alternatives, you should have backed electoral reform so people would be narrowed down to that choice. Either that, or you should have addressed the concerns of UKIP voters, rather than calling them fruitcakes and racists. The Tories have put themselves into a position entirely of their own making.Richard_Nabavi said:I think it's a bit early to expect any effect. The next general election comes down to a choice (and a very important one), and voters can either make that choice, or stick their collective heads in the sand. They don't, however, have any great incentive to make that choice yet, certainly not when replying to opinion pollsters.
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My guess is that "normal" for UKIP is probably c.10% in a general election.0
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The Tories have put themselves into a position entirely of their own making.
What do you make of reports that Cam will go nuclear if (and when) Juncker gets the top job?0 -
Lord Ashcroft Poll Today
LAB 349 CON 238 LD 34 Other 29 (UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM Less than 10.5 months to go.
Every June poll has Ed is crap is PM0 -
Greens will get more.Neil said:The Greens wont get 7% and UKIP wont get 17% next year.
I've bet on it.
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I've actually forgotten the details of our bet - do you have them to hand to save me googling?TheScreamingEagles said:
Greens will get more.Neil said:The Greens wont get 7% and UKIP wont get 17% next year.
I've bet on it.0 -
It's wonderful to see the British legacy of democracy in Hong Kong:
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-27970543
Huge credit to Thatcher, who went head to head with a powerful leader, and managed to win serious concessions for a far away place we would no longer own, because she believed in the principles she was fighting for.0 -
And UKIP will get more than the Greens.TheScreamingEagles said:
Greens will get more [than 7%].Neil said:The Greens wont get 7% and UKIP wont get 17% next year.
I've bet on it.
I have bet on that .0 -
The TNS poll looks too good to be true. And, so it probably is.0
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You offered me 20/1 that the Greens would outpoll the Lib Dems.Neil said:
I've actually forgotten the details of our bet - do you have them to hand to save me googling?TheScreamingEagles said:
Greens will get more.Neil said:The Greens wont get 7% and UKIP wont get 17% next year.
I've bet on it.
I staked £20
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Ah, yes, thanks. The easiest money I've made on pbc since the departure of tim!TheScreamingEagles said:
You offered me 20/1 that the Greens would outpoll the Lib Dems.Neil said:
I've actually forgotten the details of our bet - do you have them to hand to save me googling?TheScreamingEagles said:
Greens will get more.Neil said:The Greens wont get 7% and UKIP wont get 17% next year.
I've bet on it.
I staked £20
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To be fair to those people they were only expecting to see the pattern that was seen last year, following the local elections. However, this time round everything has been different, and it's not obvious to me why.Mike Smithson said:A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away.
Last year Labour flatlined after the local elections - this year they are moving modestly back up.
Last year the Conservatives recovered support lost to UKIP quite strongly - this year they are continuing to decline.
Last year UKIP fell back after the election limelight moved on - this year they are maintaining their support.
Last year it looked like the Lib Dems might flatline at around 10% in the polls for ever more - this year they are declining to new depths [perhaps Clegg's defeats to Farage in the debates have done lasting damage].
The Greens also seem to be maintaining a couple of extra percentage points compared to this time last year [perhaps winning more MEPs than the Lib Dems increased their credibility].0 -
Interesting report out on *the London schools effect*:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/321969/London_Schools_-_FINAL.pdf0 -
@TSE FPT
You didn't get a vote for a Greater Manchester mayor, which is what Osborne is - rightly - advocating. You got a vote on a City of Manchester mayor, which covers a tiny sliver of the conurbation and is therefore a pointless enterprise.
That people don't grasp the difference shows what a lousy job the government has made of communicating what should be an exciting and straightforward concept.0 -
It's very satisfactory. LIAMT was quite correct to say that any serious Eurosceptic should wish Junker to get the top job. Firstly, he's an awful candidate. Secondly, it shows the leaders of the EU sticking two fingers up to voters who've just shown their unhappiness for the kind of EU that Junker wants. Thirdly, it strengthens anti-EU sentiment in this country (Yougov have Yes and No back to level-pegging). Fourth, it forces the Conservatives to come out fighting.taffys said:The Tories have put themselves into a position entirely of their own making.
What do you make of reports that Cam will go nuclear if (and when) Juncker gets the top job?
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Hardly discredited, in the case of this government: overall satisfaction levels are reasonably good, the economy is the envy of Europe, despite starting from the worst position in Europe apart from Greece, employment is booming, satisfaction with public services has actually improved, despite the pressure on public finances, the welfare monster is being, slowly, brought back in line, desperately-needed educational reforms are advancing at a rate of knots. The choice is to continue that progress, or follow France into going backwards by re-electing a party which not only got us into this mess, but has even managed to sideline the most talented of its senior members, and which has a leader universally regarded as unfit for high office.Socrates said:If you wanted to force people into a choice between two discredited alternatives, you should have backed electoral reform so people would be narrowed down to that choice. Either that, or you should have addressed the concerns of UKIP voters, rather than calling them fruitcakes and racists. The Tories have put themselves into a position entirely of their own making.
As for addressing the concerns of UKIP voters, yes quite. They want a referendum on leaving the EU. They will get one, if the Conservatives have a majority, and may do so even if its a Tory-led coalition. They won't if Ed M is in No 10.
If they don't want their concerns addressed, they can vote UKIP. It's entirely up to them.
I've no idea what they (UKIP supporters and others) will choose; Jack W has great faith in the commonsense of the voters, and hopefully he is right, but we shall see.0 -
The idea that Cameron would go "nuclear" over anything is fanciful, that would imply he has some principles. As for Europe, he can't possibly actually do anything because he has already said he cannot contemplate circumstances in which the UK should leave. So I suppose he can make himself look a bigger berk than usual but that is as far as his activity can go.taffys said:The Tories have put themselves into a position entirely of their own making.
What do you make of reports that Cam will go nuclear if (and when) Juncker gets the top job?0 -
Promise me you won't use the winnings to get JohnO drunk.Neil said:
Ah, yes, thanks. The easiest money I've made on pbc since the departure of tim!TheScreamingEagles said:
You offered me 20/1 that the Greens would outpoll the Lib Dems.Neil said:
I've actually forgotten the details of our bet - do you have them to hand to save me googling?TheScreamingEagles said:
Greens will get more.Neil said:The Greens wont get 7% and UKIP wont get 17% next year.
I've bet on it.
I staked £200 -
£20 wouldnt even get JohnO to Battersea never mind Bournemouth.TheScreamingEagles said:
Promise me you won't use the winnings to get JohnO drunk.Neil said:
Ah, yes, thanks. The easiest money I've made on pbc since the departure of tim!TheScreamingEagles said:
You offered me 20/1 that the Greens would outpoll the Lib Dems.Neil said:
I've actually forgotten the details of our bet - do you have them to hand to save me googling?TheScreamingEagles said:
Greens will get more.Neil said:The Greens wont get 7% and UKIP wont get 17% next year.
I've bet on it.
I staked £200 -
For some, an orgasmic combination. Question to & answers from EC Presidency candidates on Catalonian & Scottish indy:
http://tinyurl.com/nerodnm
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It's nice to see them stand up for something. But here we will see just how much influence the UK really has. If we can't get even a hint of compromise between our position and the eurofederalist position, despite having our allies onside (Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark etc), a sympathetic ear from Germany, and are going all in to make our case, then that will say it all. The main argument for staying in is that we wouldn't want to "lose our influence". If Juncker gets in despite everything, it will show how we don't have any influence to lose.taffys said:The Tories have put themselves into a position entirely of their own making.
What do you make of reports that Cam will go nuclear if (and when) Juncker gets the top job?0 -
Can anyone tell me how the "Veto" thing played out?HurstLlama said:
The idea that Cameron would go "nuclear" over anything is fanciful, that would imply he has some principles. As for Europe, he can't possibly actually do anything because he has already said he cannot contemplate circumstances in which the UK should leave. So I suppose he can make himself look a bigger berk than usual but that is as far as his activity can go.taffys said:The Tories have put themselves into a position entirely of their own making.
What do you make of reports that Cam will go nuclear if (and when) Juncker gets the top job?
It's been about two and a half years since those heady days when Cameron returned defiant from Europe, so we should have some idea over what the resultant reality has been, as compared to the spin at the time.0 -
"It Forces the Conservatives to come out fighting"? Really? I mean, what are they actually going to do? Will Cameron give a press statement saying, "It is jolly well not right" and maybe even pledging to continue to do everything he can to protect the UK's interests. Perhaps our valiant foreign secretary will also issue another press release saying how disappointed and shocked he is at these developments and calling for all parties to negotiate (the FCO has now only one press release, don't matter if it's Europe or war in some far flung country the message is exactly the same).Sean_F said:
It's very satisfactory. LIAMT was quite correct to say that any serious Eurosceptic should wish Junker to get the top job. Firstly, he's an awful candidate. Secondly, it shows the leaders of the EU sticking two fingers up to voters who've just shown their unhappiness for the kind of EU that Junker wants. Thirdly, it strengthens anti-EU sentiment in this country (Yougov have Yes and No back to level-pegging). Fourth, it forces the Conservatives to come out fighting.taffys said:The Tories have put themselves into a position entirely of their own making.
What do you make of reports that Cam will go nuclear if (and when) Juncker gets the top job?0 -
I would have thought Ukip would be ecstatic at Cameron's seething - carries on like this and he will be joining you in supporting OUT at the referendum..0
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Very well. The mooted restructuring which would have left the non-Eurozone EU members in thrall to decisions made by the Eurozone bloc were vetoed by Cameron.OblitusSumMe said:Can anyone tell me how the "Veto" thing played out?
It's been about two and a half years since those heady days when Cameron returned defiant from Europe, so we should have some idea over what the resultant reality has been, as compared to the spin at the time.
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Several times on here I've asked for odds about UKIP winning Dover & Deal but nothing forthcoming. So I'll ask again please.0
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More likely to induce a migraine for me - though am I right in concluding that Mr Cameron might find Herr Juncker rather less of a little helper on the matter of indyref?Theuniondivvie said:For some, an orgasmic combination. Question to & answers from EC Presidency candidates on Catalonian & Scottish indy:
http://tinyurl.com/nerodnm
PS Not to complain at all: it was actually quite revealing (not least on how Mr Barrosso (sP?) is not to be taken as typical)
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Good evening, everyone.
I wonder if a Juncker appointment would lead to Labour offering a referendum. I very much doubt it, but the question is there.
Also, Cameron's wanting a vote (on Juncker) for domestic consumption, but if it occurs that will set a precedent for the nation-states (I think) to determine the leader, not the Parliament. That might be a de facto/de jure difference, or not.0 -
Kudos to OGH, a positive UKIP thread. I accused him of bias enough to feel I must acknowledge this!
I never understood why so many people thought UKIP would suddenly lose support. What Farage and UKIP are saying to millions of ordinary people is very similar to what Enoch Powell said in the late 60s, only without such provocative language.
Like it or not, when Powell made his Birmingham speech, his popularity with the public soared. There are polls from the time to prove this. Even arch enemy Heseltine said that if there was an election the next week, and Powell was Tory leader, he would have won a landslide.
Heath distanced himself from Powell, but not the policy he was supporting in his speech, and that was a big reason the Tories won in 1970.
The diffence this time is that people can vote for the person articulating their views, Farage, rather than by proxy voting for Heath.
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UKIP are 6/1 to win Dover with Ladbrokes:blackburn63 said:Several times on here I've asked for odds about UKIP winning Dover & Deal but nothing forthcoming. So I'll ask again please.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/dover/winning-party
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Afternoon all
Well, some might argue that after 6%, 9% represents the sunlit uplands of hope for the LDs.
Perhaps...
Another dreadful Conservative poll - 28% is an incredibly low number for the party and would be the worst performance by the party in an election under universal suffrage.
Labour have little to crow on with 33% but that would get them home on these numbers while, as the thread topic argues, UKIP remains resilient thus far. The autumn will be the test for them as the Conservatives will doubtless "re-launch" with some UKIP-friendly policies at their Conference (perhaps a defection immediately prior to the Conference).0 -
6/1 from Ladbrokes (the constituency name is still just 'Dover', I believe).blackburn63 said:Several times on here I've asked for odds about UKIP winning Dover & Deal but nothing forthcoming. So I'll ask again please.
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@Richard_Nabavi
I'm sure we look good compared to the slow motion car crash that is the Eurozone, but compare us to how we've done since 2008 to other developed economies:
Australia: +18%
New Zealand: +10%
Canada: +9%
Switzerland: +7%
United States: +7%
Norway: +5%
UK: -1%
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Thanks Richard I'll check that out.Richard_Nabavi said:
6/1 from Ladbrokes (the constituency name is still just 'Dover', I believe).blackburn63 said:Several times on here I've asked for odds about UKIP winning Dover & Deal but nothing forthcoming. So I'll ask again please.
I know the candidate (winky emoticon)
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Mr. Socrates, worth mentioning Canada and Australia both suffered relatively little because they actually had rather better financial regulation and economic management than the UK.0
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Come on I don't think 4 weeks after the Euros event offers convincing proof that the UKIP vote share will hold up until the next GE.Would expect that support for UKIP to be like a slowly deflating balloon.Also expect Lib dems to regain third place in national vote share on icm sometime in Autumn.0
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2008? Yes, quite. Good though Osborne is, he doesn't have a time-machine, allowing him to go back and start undoing Labour's mess before he came into office.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
I'm sure we look good compared to the slow motion car crash that is the Eurozone, but compare us to how we've done since 2008 to other developed economies:
Australia: +18%
New Zealand: +10%
Canada: +9%
Switzerland: +7%
United States: +7%
Norway: +5%
UK: -1%
As I said, Osborne inherited the worst economic position of any major economy and the worst deficit in Europe apart from Greece. His opponents, and especially Labour, said he'd wreck the recovery with his gentle rebalancing of the public finances. In fact we are doing particularly well. If voters want to reverse that progress, well, that's up to them.0 -
At the moment it is a "joint" decision, in that the heads of Government vote on a qualified majority basis for a candidate, who then requires approval by the European Parliament.Morris_Dancer said:Also, Cameron's wanting a vote (on Juncker) for domestic consumption, but if it occurs that will set a precedent for the nation-states (I think) to determine the leader, not the Parliament. That might be a de facto/de jure difference, or not.
I think in the past the Parliament had a lot less say, but there was some incident when they voted down the entire Commission to give themselves more influence, I think.
At the moment we have something of a staring contest where the Parliament are trying to convince the heads of government that they will vote down any candidate other than Juncker, and hoping that most heads of government are not sufficiently bothered to want to face such a confrontation, and Cameron et al are trying to convince the heads of government that they will cause more trouble than the Parliament if they don't get their way.
My understanding was that the EU had three Presidents [of the Commission, the Council and something else?] precisely so it could resolve these sorts of conflicts in a "Juncker is simultaneously the President and not the President of the EU" sort of way, but it appears that Merkel is left trying to decide which side in the argument will be easier to mollify after they have been forced to accept a chastening defeat.0 -
Unemployment rates, advanced non-Euro economies:
Sweden: 8.0%
Canada: 7.0%
UK: 6.6%
USA: 6.3%
Iceland: 5.9%
New Zealand: 6.0%
Australia: 5.8%
South Korea: 3.7%
Japan: 3.6%
Norway: 3.3%
Switzerland: 3.0%0 -
@Morris_Dancer
"And less reliance on the "service sector" than the UK."
It is our reliance on these things that makes booms and busts more severe than for other nations.0 -
Anyone that studies economics knows there's a bounce-back effect from recessions. It's fairly easy to get back to where you started. It's growth beyond that level that is difficult.Richard_Nabavi said:
2008? Yes, quite. Good though Osborne is, he doesn't have a time-machine, allowing him to go back and start undoing Labour's mess before he came into office.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
I'm sure we look good compared to the slow motion car crash that is the Eurozone, but compare us to how we've done since 2008 to other developed economies:
Australia: +18%
New Zealand: +10%
Canada: +9%
Switzerland: +7%
United States: +7%
Norway: +5%
UK: -1%
As I said, Osborne inherited the worst economic position of any major economy and the worst deficit in Europe apart from Greece. His opponents, and especially Labour, said he'd wreck the recovery with his gentle rebalancing of the public finances. In fact we are doing particularly well. If voters want to reverse that progress, well, that's up to them.
I actually think Osborne's done a reasonable job. It's just not the miracle that you claim it is. The rebalancing of the public financing was needed, he just did it too soon. The recovery has also been too dependent on consumption rather than investment.0 -
Cook gone.0
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Mr. Smarmeron, I think someone else said that.0
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Buffs nails but not with pride.0
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If you were to split those into financial and non-financial growth for each country it would be more meaningful.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
I'm sure we look good compared to the slow motion car crash that is the Eurozone, but compare us to how we've done since 2008 to other developed economies:
Australia: +18%
New Zealand: +10%
Canada: +9%
Switzerland: +7%
United States: +7%
Norway: +5%
UK: -1%
Fundamentally, we have been through a secular decline in the size of the global financial sector. While this may well be a good thing in and of itself, to look at headline numbers without talking into account the relative weight of financial services produces a misleading result0 -
Well Canada and Australia are both benefiting from high prices for their exports of raw materials, rather as Britain prospered relative to some countries in the 80s and 90s because of North Sea Oil and Gas - the decline of which is making our headline economic performance look a bit worse than it is, and the recent strength of Sterling somewhat baffling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Socrates, worth mentioning Canada and Australia both suffered relatively little because they actually had rather better financial regulation and economic management than the UK.
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Canada's economy is 79.6% services. Australia's economy is 74.5% services.Smarmeron said:@Morris_Dancer
"And less reliance on the "service sector" than the UK."
It is our reliance on these things that makes booms and busts more severe than for other nations.0 -
Draw at 4.6 is virtual free money to lay.Scrapheap_as_was said:Buffs nails but not with pride.
99 overs with England's batting line up - no way a draw without rain.0 -
Appear to be winning enough betting against my team, it's Spurs all over again....TGOHF said:
Draw at 4.6 is virtual free money to lay.Scrapheap_as_was said:Buffs nails but not with pride.
99 overs with England's batting line up - no way a draw without rain.0 -
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Mr. Smarmeron, about services, and I'm not annoyed, just pointing out you should be addressing your point to whoever said it.0
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There are many people on here who still think it will be 5-7% in the GE, and also plenty who are underwater on bets they have placed selling UKIP... Why should it be? thatthey will drop in support that muchNeil said:
It depends what you mean by suddenly. There are many reasons why they will poll far below current levels on GE day itself.isam said:
I never understood why so many people thought UKIP would suddenly lose support.
I am a Labour 2010 voter and I know I will not be tempted back.. why should I be an atypical UKIP supporter?0 -
What if Cam gets so hacked off he chucks in the towel and says he's backing "OUT"isam said:
There are many people on here who still think it will be 5-7% in the GE, and also plenty who are underwater on bets they have placed selling UKIP... Why should it be? thatthey will drop in support that muchNeil said:
It depends what you mean by suddenly. There are many reasons why they will poll far below current levels on GE day itself.isam said:
I never understood why so many people thought UKIP would suddenly lose support.
I am a Labour 2010 voter and I know I will not be tempted back.. why should I be an atypical UKIP supporter?
Do you still vote Kipper to end up with Miliband and no referendum ?0 -
From 2011, off Richard's request. Advanced, non-Euro economies:
Australia: +12%
New Zealand: +10%
South Korea: +8%
Japan: +7%
Canada: +6%
USA: +6%
Iceland: +6%
Norway: +5%
Sweden: +5%
Switzerland: +4%
UK: +4%0 -
Numbers are numbers and that's the performance. The results aren't misleading, it's where we are.Charles said:
If you were to split those into financial and non-financial growth for each country it would be more meaningful.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
I'm sure we look good compared to the slow motion car crash that is the Eurozone, but compare us to how we've done since 2008 to other developed economies:
Australia: +18%
New Zealand: +10%
Canada: +9%
Switzerland: +7%
United States: +7%
Norway: +5%
UK: -1%
Fundamentally, we have been through a secular decline in the size of the global financial sector. While this may well be a good thing in and of itself, to look at headline numbers without talking into account the relative weight of financial services produces a misleading result0 -
I am predicting a fall in UKIP's support between now and GE 2015 for many of the same reasons I predicted a strong increase in UKIP's support between the start of the year and the Euro elections. It's not rocket science. The fact that the price on UKIP more / less than 10% has shifted is not in any way incompatible with UKIP polling at lot less at the GE than now.isam said:Why should it be? thatthey will drop in support that much
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If that happens, I will think about it. I think there is virtually no chance of it happening though.TGOHF said:
What if Cam gets so hacked off he chucks in the towel and says he's backing "OUT"isam said:
There are many people on here who still think it will be 5-7% in the GE, and also plenty who are underwater on bets they have placed selling UKIP... Why should it be? thatthey will drop in support that muchNeil said:
It depends what you mean by suddenly. There are many reasons why they will poll far below current levels on GE day itself.isam said:
I never understood why so many people thought UKIP would suddenly lose support.
I am a Labour 2010 voter and I know I will not be tempted back.. why should I be an atypical UKIP supporter?
Do you still vote Kipper to end up with Miliband and no referendum ?
Cameron has said that he will keep open door immigration even if we leave the EU.. restricting benefits etc is a sticking plaster on a broken leg.
Plus I dont agree with many of his other policies.
But we shall see!0 -
@Morris_Dancer
"Mr. Socrates, worth mentioning Canada and Australia both suffered relatively little because they actually had rather better financial regulation and economic management than the UK."
This was the point I was replying to MD. Pointing out that financial regulation and economic management are only part of the story when it came to scale.0 -
If you dont mind backing 11/10 shots at 4/6 I guessNeil said:
I am predicting a fall in UKIP's support between now and GE 2015 for many of the same reasons I predicted a strong increase in UKIP's support between the start of the year and the Euro elections. It's not rocket science. The fact that the price on UKIP more / less than 10% has shifted is not in any way incompatible with UKIP polling at lot less at the GE than now.isam said:Why should it be? thatthey will drop in support that much
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Remember that the 2008 gdp drop has subsequently been found to be deeper than originally calculated. Consequently there is a bigger hole to get out of.Charles said:
If you were to split those into financial and non-financial growth for each country it would be more meaningful.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
I'm sure we look good compared to the slow motion car crash that is the Eurozone, but compare us to how we've done since 2008 to other developed economies:
Australia: +18%
New Zealand: +10%
Canada: +9%
Switzerland: +7%
United States: +7%
Norway: +5%
UK: -1%
Fundamentally, we have been through a secular decline in the size of the global financial sector. While this may well be a good thing in and of itself, to look at headline numbers without talking into account the relative weight of financial services produces a misleading result
Whose fault is it that hole was created in the first place?
Thinking about this theme further, does anyone have the comparison stats based on growth from the bottom of the hole for each country?0 -
Mr. Smarmeron, ok, but having stuff I hadn't written in quotes was somewhat confusing.0
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Again - those movements in odds say nothing about whether UKIP will maintain current polling levels or fall back next year.isam said:
If you dont mind backing 11/10 shots at 4/6 I guessNeil said:
I am predicting a fall in UKIP's support between now and GE 2015 for many of the same reasons I predicted a strong increase in UKIP's support between the start of the year and the Euro elections. It's not rocket science. The fact that the price on UKIP more / less than 10% has shifted is not in any way incompatible with UKIP polling at lot less at the GE than now.isam said:Why should it be? thatthey will drop in support that much
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@Morris_Dancer
I shall endeavor to remember that in future MD.0 -
How many more wickets before Sri Lanka can claim the extra half hour?0
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I think thay might fall back a bit.. maybe to 13-14% .. thats fair enough.. sub 10% very very unlikelyNeil said:
Again - those movements in odds say nothing about whether UKIP will maintain current polling levels or fall back next year.isam said:
If you dont mind backing 11/10 shots at 4/6 I guessNeil said:
I am predicting a fall in UKIP's support between now and GE 2015 for many of the same reasons I predicted a strong increase in UKIP's support between the start of the year and the Euro elections. It's not rocket science. The fact that the price on UKIP more / less than 10% has shifted is not in any way incompatible with UKIP polling at lot less at the GE than now.isam said:Why should it be? thatthey will drop in support that much
Easy to say the odds dont matter when youve had a bad bet0 -
I'm extremely comfortable with both UKIP bets I have with you (it's just the two, right?). Sure waiting till the Euro peak was always likely to produce slightly better odds where there's a liquid market but that's not what fun bets on pbc are all about.isam said:
Easy to say the odds dont matter when youve had a bad bet0 -
Hahaha great stuff!Neil said:
I'm extremely comfortable with both UKIP bets I have with you (it's just the two, right?). Sure waiting till the Euro peak was always likely to produce slightly better odds where there's a liquid market but that's not what fun bets on pbc are all about.isam said:
Easy to say the odds dont matter when youve had a bad bet0 -
No, I meant the bit about there being a lot of investments.Smarmeron said:@Socrates
Look up the GDP increase compared to "assets", and ask yourself why Spain can borrow at nearly the same rate as the uk
As for your last comment, the reason our borrowing rate is similar to Spain is because the effect of higher economic growth in the UK makes up for the effect of better credit worthiness. Non-economics only look at the latter and forget about the former effect.
I criticised Tories for doing this four years ago and I'm criticising Labourites for doing it now.0 -
England 52-4.
Can someone do a rain dance, please!0 -
no thanks.OldKingCole said:England 52-4.
Can someone do a rain dance, please!0 -
Unless Plunkett gets his maiden 100 this match is all over. How on earth did this happen? Time for Cook to go?0
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That's true, but the interpretation of the results could be faulty if you don't dig down further into the data.Alanbrooke said:
Numbers are numbers and that's the performance. The results aren't misleading, it's where we are.Charles said:
If you were to split those into financial and non-financial growth for each country it would be more meaningful.Socrates said:@Richard_Nabavi
I'm sure we look good compared to the slow motion car crash that is the Eurozone, but compare us to how we've done since 2008 to other developed economies:
Australia: +18%
New Zealand: +10%
Canada: +9%
Switzerland: +7%
United States: +7%
Norway: +5%
UK: -1%
Fundamentally, we have been through a secular decline in the size of the global financial sector. While this may well be a good thing in and of itself, to look at headline numbers without talking into account the relative weight of financial services produces a misleading result0 -
Like the bad old days, night watchmen sent in with too long still to go and should be out already.
Free money today really going against Eng - at least there's footie tomorrow...oh.0 -
Our bowlers bowled like whores, and the fact that our captain helped back our spinner gave us a sub-optimal tactics today and yesterday.DavidL said:Unless Plunkett gets his maiden 100 this match is all over. How on earth did this happen? Time for Cook to go?
This afternoon I was thinking "even Jade Dernbach might be an improvement on our team" that's how bad it got.0 -
I've greened upScrapheap_as_was said:Like the bad old days, night watchmen sent in with too long still to go and should be out already.
Free money today really going against Eng these days - at least there's footie tomorrow...oh.
Eng +41.59
SL +43.48
Draw +44.38
England earlier at 1.89 was the biggest lay I've ever seen in all my days.0 -
The only hope for England is that both Scrapheap and myself have bet on a Ceylon victory....0
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Billy's having a shocker isn't he?0
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Billy Bowden should be playing in the English footie team as centre half.0
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There is also the not so small matter of the ECB standing behind Spain with the Draghi punt. As long as you believe that they will enter the market with almost limitless resources to back a country in difficulty you will be prepared to lend at very modest rates over the German base.Socrates said:
No, I meant the bit about there being a lot of investments.Smarmeron said:@Socrates
Look up the GDP increase compared to "assets", and ask yourself why Spain can borrow at nearly the same rate as the uk
As for your last comment, the reason our borrowing rate is similar to Spain is because the effect of higher economic growth in the UK makes up for the effect of better credit worthiness. Non-economics only look at the latter and forget about the former effect.
I criticised Tories for doing this four years ago and I'm criticising Labourites for doing it now.
Those who thought that the Euro was such economic madness that it must ultimately fail (which included me last year) have been proved wrong. Economics really can be trumped by politics if the will is strong enough.
I should have listened to Robert and his anti AEP indicator
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England's football team dont pick our best defenders and we exit the WC at the first hurdle because we let in soft goals, and our cricket team dont pick our best batsmen and we collapse when the going gets tough
Why be surprised?0 -
Agree entirely - the market price was absolutely bonkers with England favourites again at 30-odd for nothing.Pulpstar said:
I've greened upScrapheap_as_was said:Like the bad old days, night watchmen sent in with too long still to go and should be out already.
Free money today really going against Eng these days - at least there's footie tomorrow...oh.
Eng +41.59
SL +43.48
Draw +44.38
England earlier at 1.89 was the biggest lay I've ever seen in all my days.0 -
Even though I can't post on it the Betfair forum is a great place to check test odds in particular - Nigel_PM, Cardshark, Whispering Death & Trader PJ are good ones to follow.0
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Time for TMS and Geoffrey's close of day rant = Chris Waddle every 4 years in world cup?0
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WTF Has Liam just done?0
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FFS that was pathetic.0
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Nice one Liam, night watchman out like that.... in last over of the day....
You have to laugh, otherwise you'd cry.0 -
I might go to Headingley tomorrow, will be memorable to be there at the end of Alastair Cook's tenure as captain.0
This discussion has been closed.