Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Tracking Covid – politicalbetting.com

123457»

Comments

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Have the field pretty much to yourself then?
    Sadly there are a few Scots here....
  • wrt UG students, while I get all the points about students being customers, one of my biggest frustrations this year has been planning a certain amount of on-campus time, integrated into the planned course, only to find students not attending any sessions we couldn't call compulsory.

    :/

    Labs, thankfully, are
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    DougSeal said:

    He was okay. It was that prick Eadric who we are all glad to see the back of. Does anyone remember when we had to set up a private bulletin board to continue the discussion without him? That was a nightmare.
    Ha. Yes. I just said same. And you're right, it was Eadric not Eldrick. God preserve us from a return.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,442

    I'm not sure, but apparently if 28 countries join a union then none of them are allowed to leave either.
    Of course a country can leave the EU if they want. It's the expectation that they can still partake of all the perks of membership which is the problem.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    The EU has 400 million doses of the J&J vaccine on order. Hopefully, it will get approval quickly and start to roll-out. That may calm things down.

    Not sure the French will be so keen on it after the helpful comments of their President.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    alex_ said:

    Yep, haggling over prices, demanding at close to cost, and setting "cost" to exclude all the upfront costs of development...
    It's completely idiotic. They want pharma companies to take a loss on their doses, effectively asking for the UK and US overspend to subsidise them.

    Honestly, it's completely infuriating that not a single commentator is picking up on this and asking the right questions about it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Mid term polling rarely looks good for governing parties and in many ways it has been a surprise how well the tories have held up. Still to be neck and neck with Labour after all that's happened should be deeply concerning ... for Labour. The Guardian carried a piece this week about that very thing: that Labour really are not cutting through: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/27/starmer-labour-failing-to-win-back-tory-voters-england-may-polls

    My take on this is that we're at half-time. You don't write a team off at this point. You don't declare it all over. The vaccine rollout by Britain is, without hyperbole, the most successful policy decision by any British Government since the Second World War. Whether that filters through into polling time will tell. If the scientists are right then we're going to exit this pandemic a lot faster than most of the world and certainly our EU neighbours. Vaccines stop death. Relative death rates may look very different a year from now.

    The Churchill comparison with World War Two is very interesting but almost certainly a dodgy one. WWII was a time which brought people together in a bond which broke through social and class divides. The seeds for Attlee's 1945 landslide were sewn in solidarity. I don't think this pandemic has entailed the same social cohesion. Rather than celebrating life together at every available opportunity we're isolated, distanced and lockdowned. True, the internet creates new bonds but people have struggled with this pandemic particularly because it has broken our social bonds.

    I think a better analogy is the Falklands War. At the outset the idea of sailing off 8000 miles and fighting for a lump of rock no-one had ever heard of was deeply unpopular. But the nation, whipped up by the press, got right into it and by the end our troops returned as heroes and Margaret Thatcher was Boadicea who could do no wrong.

    Boris Johnson is having a very good 2021. True, Keir Starmer is no Michael Foot but neither is he Clem Attlee or Tony Blair. Personally I think if he wishes to stay on Boris will win a crushing victory at the next General Election.

    It looks quite likely that by mid- 2021 the number of Covid deaths will have reached circa 140,000 - which would be twice the level of civilian casualties suffered by the UK in the almost 6 years of World War 2. I find it surprising that you don't believe that the Opposition parties will not remind voters of this at the time of the next election. Some of Labour's party election broadcasts for 2024 have probably already been written - if kept in cold storage at the moment.
    Would the Falklands have been seen as a great triumph, had we incurred 10,000 fatalities - never mind well in excess of 100,000?
    As for the polling,we are NOT at mid-term - indeed we are still in the first quartile of this Parliament. As it is , Starmer is outperforming Gaitskell from early 1961 - and Kinnock from mid-1988 - the equivalent points of the 1959 and 1987 Parliaments respectively. We have seen quite a few Labour poll leads in recent months - fairly comparable to where Thatcher was for most of 1978. That sense is reinforced, when allowance is made for the fact that Labour's 2015 collapse in Scotland has effectively knocked 2% off its GB headline poll figures.
  • MaxPB said:

    200m doses of J&J for the EU, but it's still a good number. The issue is that they're only just starting manufacturing of it now because it's not part of our advanced manufacturing agreement (due to the small purchase agreement) and the EU scheme didn't incentivise manufacturing starting prior to results proving clinical viability.

    The next big flashpoint is going to be over the Novavax schedule, it is set for volume deliveries to the UK and US in April and we have paid for domestic manufacturing exclusivity up to 60m doses just as we did with AZ (at a cost of £450m) while the EU still hasn't signed a deal and is haggling over prices. We will have the same bloody arguments when Novavax are delivering millions of doses per week to the UK and US but almost nothing to the EU.
    We should buy up all remaining output from Novavax in Billingham now.

    Any we don't need can then be donated to the third world.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    FF43 said:

    I addressed your cost issue by pointing out the Swiss scheme has very significant extra costs that don't exist in Erasmus. Don't much appreciate your "predictably enough" snideness. Especially as you are wrong in your assertion there.
    So, you are saying the Swiss rejected the EU's proposal to join Erasmus on the grounds of cost .. and then devised a much more expensive scheme.

    I am calling bullshit on that.

    If you are not in the EU, the fee for a country to join Erasmus is based on a country's GDP. That is why it is very expensive for Switzerland or the UK to join.

    That is why it is much more expensive for Switzerland to join Erasmus than to run its own scheme.

    So you are wrong.

    But, I think we can trust the Swiss, no? ..... The Swiss are certainly very good with money, they will have worked out what is best for Switzerland.
  • Blenheim Palace?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251

    What is curious to me is how given all those magnificent qualities and lifestyle he used to spend most Saturday nights drunkenly posting to randoms on the internet......
    I can only assume that this is THE place to go if you want to have people truly giving a shit about exotic locations, beautiful women, Michelin-starred meals, the finest of wines....
  • MaxPB said:

    It's completely idiotic. They want pharma companies to take a loss on their doses, effectively asking for the UK and US overspend to subsidise them.

    Honestly, it's completely infuriating that not a single commentator is picking up on this and asking the right questions about it.
    Your expecting the same media who can't even get their heads around basic covid stats to understand more complex funding arrangements and pharmaceutical contracts.....
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,097
    Let’s just let the Scots have their vote. I wish them well.

    All in all - I hope it improves democratic accountability, particularly against the SNP. That is no bad thing. It’ll be interesting to see how things fare.
  • justin124 said:

    It looks quite likely that by mid- 2021 the number of Covid deaths will have reached circa 140,000 - which would be twice the level of civilian casualties suffered by the UK in the almost 6 years of World War 2. I find it surprising that you don't believe that the Opposition parties will not remind voters of this at the time of the next election. Some of Labour's party election broadcasts for 2024 have probably already been written - if kept in cold storage at the moment.
    Would the Falklands have been seen as a great triumph, had we incurred 10,000 fatalities - never mind well in excess of 100,000?
    As for the polling,we are NOT at mid-term - indeed we are still in the first quartile of this Parliament. As it is , Starmer is outperforming Gaitskell from early 1961 - and Kinnock from mid-1988 - the equivalent points of the 1959 and 1987 Parliaments respectively. We have seen quite a few Labour poll leads in recent months - fairly comparable to where Thatcher was for most of 1978. That sense is reinforced, when allowance is made for the fact that Labour's 2015 collapse in Scotland has effectively knocked 2% off its GB headline poll figures.
    If Labour intend to fight the next election waving shrouds they will lose, and deservedly so.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,877
    Why would you want to stay in that bling shithole?

    It is giant ego trip, admittedly created by some of the finest artisans of the age, but the continuous me, me, me theme would make your average HipHop artist cringe.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of assertions made in this discussion, and little evidence presented.
    The exchange is thus far a touch weightier than PB average. You therefore have high standards, Rob. Hats off to you.
  • justin124 said:

    It looks quite likely that by mid- 2021 the number of Covid deaths will have reached circa 140,000 - which would be twice the level of civilian casualties suffered by the UK in the almost 6 years of World War 2. I find it surprising that you don't believe that the Opposition parties will not remind voters of this at the time of the next election. Some of Labour's party election broadcasts for 2024 have probably already been written - if kept in cold storage at the moment.
    Would the Falklands have been seen as a great triumph, had we incurred 10,000 fatalities - never mind well in excess of 100,000?
    As for the polling,we are NOT at mid-term - indeed we are still in the first quartile of this Parliament. As it is , Starmer is outperforming Gaitskell from early 1961 - and Kinnock from mid-1988 - the equivalent points of the 1959 and 1987 Parliaments respectively. We have seen quite a few Labour poll leads in recent months - fairly comparable to where Thatcher was for most of 1978. That sense is reinforced, when allowance is made for the fact that Labour's 2015 collapse in Scotland has effectively knocked 2% off its GB headline poll figures.
    Its also remiss that governments have let people die of flu in the tens of thousands every year.

    Or for that matter not abolished death entirely.
  • I can only assume that this is THE place to go if you want to have people truly giving a shit about exotic locations, beautiful women, Michelin-starred meals, the finest of wines....
    Or perhaps Mondays and Thursdays were the sugadaddy.com nights and weekends were reserved for her fit 22 year old Italian lover. Alas, we shall never know.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849
    edited January 2021
    Yorkcity said:

    Could someone explain.
    If two countries join a union , why can one not leave that union if they want to ?
    Did the original Act of union forbid such a situation.

    Yes, of course as a general principle leaving is an option. However questions still arise.

    How often can you hold a contest on the matter without causing disruption and dislocation?

    Who has the right to decide that and allied questions?

    When two or more countries become, for purposes of international law and relations, one country, who has the right to be asked over changes? Since X leaving country XY entails Y leaving country XY and forming a new unit, whether they like it or not, why should only the people of former X have a say?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    One of the downsides with the single dose J&J regime is that the immune response doesn't seem strong enough to fight it off completely as the Pfizer, Moderna and AZ 12 week regime does. I think that's why they have started a two dose efficacy trial.

    What that means is that it may end up being a great booster type vaccine for Q4 like a flu jab, but maybe not great for bringing infection rates down very quickly as we expect Pfizer and Moderna to do.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    DougSeal said:

    The longer term impact of his illness appears to be that he’s taking the job more seriously.
    That suits me - and, I imagine, most people - just fine. I've long thought that a Boris who took his job seriously would be close to unbeatable.
  • Why would you want to stay in that bling shithole?

    It is giant ego trip, admittedly created by some of the finest artisans of the age, but the continuous me, me, me theme would make your average HipHop artist cringe.
    Gift of a grateful nation...

    (Memo to self: beware of nations bearing gifts.)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,158
    edited January 2021
    I fully expect in the coming months for the PM to be asked by journalists that given no foreign travel is allowed, summer staycations are too expensive and inaccessible to most of the public and what will the government be doing about the price gouging.... cos its all so unfair....thinking of the little people here, not that my week vacation in the Cotswold will cost £20k. Shouldn't we open the borders and allow people at least a week away after all thess restrictions...

    Thanks for the question Robert...next question please.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited January 2021

    Depends on the Union, I don't think any state, bar Texas, can lawfully secede from the United States of America.

    As for the Act of the Union, there was a referendum in 2014 so it clearly doesn't forbid it.

    I think what is interesting is that Salmond said, where he appeared to create an estoppel by convention just before the vote in 2014.

    SNP leader Alex Salmond has said the Scottish referendum is a "once in a generation opportunity".

    Speaking to Andrew Marr he said that a simple majority, however close, would be accepted by both sides in the campaign and there would be a "generational" gap before another independence referendum.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-29196661
    Of course Lincoln's main aim in fighting the US civil war was to stop the Confederate southern states seceding from the Union, though he supported emancipation of the slaves personally that was not his main reason for fighting the war
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    There'll be an awful lot more of this sort of thing if, as I suspect, foreign holidays are cancelled again this year but everyone can get about within our own borders.

    The tourism industry has had an absolutely torrid time and, with a market that's both desperate for a getaway and literally captive, price gouging is inevitable. Accommodation in Southwold or St Ives may be almost as pricey as the Ritz come August. The middle classes might struggle to afford a static caravan in Mablethorpe.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,435
    edited January 2021
    Alternatively she could book a Travel Lodge in Swindon or Gloucester and take the short drive to the Cotswolds.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,312
    What the hell is she trying to rent?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442

    I always thought that is a flaw in the UK system. Most PhD students, well at least I did, wasted my first year pissing about trying to work out what I might need to learn about, where I was going with it etc. It would have been extremely helpful to have had some structured learning, ability to take some higher level maths classes, and found a group of similar minded people from across departments who I could have talked things through with, asked about bits of papers I didn't understand etc.

    Instead I got thrown in a small office with a couple of guys much further ahead who weren't particularly helpful and it was sink or swim.
    Our phd students get a lot more in the way of centrally provided courses in things like how to survey 5he literature and how to plan a thesis etc. Way more than I ever got (I’d argue I didn’t need it). It also helps them meet other students with is good for broadening horizons. Within that though, the actual phd is research, not taught.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,269
    edited January 2021
    No idea.

    I see the "berk" in the middle, and her Pinterest Profile calls her "Tweeter of nonsense".

    *innocent face*

    https://twitter.com/suziedoore/status/1355861175335006208
    https://twitter.com/Lucyzilb/status/1355861515614777348
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited January 2021

    Depends on the Union, I don't think any state, bar Texas, can lawfully secede from the United States of America.

    As for the Act of the Union, there was a referendum in 2014 so it clearly doesn't forbid it.

    I think what is interesting is that Salmond said, where he appeared to create an estoppel by convention just before the vote in 2014.

    SNP leader Alex Salmond has said the Scottish referendum is a "once in a generation opportunity".

    Speaking to Andrew Marr he said that a simple majority, however close, would be accepted by both sides in the campaign and there would be a "generational" gap before another independence referendum.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-29196661
    But "Yes" had to say that.

    It's the logical and necessary counter to No's "Indy is irreversible and you will have to live with it forever".

    Otherwise you would have had Fencers weighing up "Massive & Irreversible" vs "No for now, maybe think again in a bit."

    That drives votes to No.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Its also remiss that governments have let people die of flu in the tens of thousands every year.

    Or for that matter not abolished death entirely.
    Justin seems to have forgotten Labours big 2 plans

    Close zoos

    Vaccinate fit young teachers at the expense of the vulnerable thus leading to up to 190 extra deaths a day

    They really can shut the fuck up
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,877

    Gift of a grateful nation...

    (Memo to self: beware of nations bearing gifts.)
    Go round the house and you begin to understand why Sarah grated on Queen Annes nerves, at times.

    The grounds are magnificent on the other hand, and free to enter.
  • I fully expect in the coming months for the PM to be asked by journalists that given no foreign travel is allowed, summer staycations are too expensive and inaccessible to most of the public and what will the government be doing about the price gouging.... cos its all so unfair....thinking of the little people here, not that my week vacation in the Cotswold will cost £20k. Shouldn't we open the borders and allow people at least a week away after all thess restrictions.....

    A staycation (a portmanteau of "stay" and "vacation"), or holistay (a portmanteau of "holiday" and "stay"), is a period in which an individual or family stays home and participates in leisure activities within day trip distance of their home and does not require overnight accommodation.

    The meaning of staycation has been perverted by the travel industry for their own ends.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,511
    malcolmg said:

    LOL, down to using Carlotta's top man Agent Pish and the Daily Heil. Pull the other one it plays bells. Must try harder.
    Malc, either they did employ their relatives or not - it's a matter of public record. Whether it appears in the DM is a bit irrelevant - you were perhaps expecting it to appear in The National?
  • If Labour intend to fight the next election waving shrouds they will lose, and deservedly so.

    The next election will not be fought on either covid deaths or the vaccine roll-out, it will be all about what happens next and who is most trusted to deliver. The deaths and the roll-out will clearly have some impact on perceptions, but much more likely to be determinant is how things go once the economy starts to open up again.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,158
    edited January 2021

    Alternatively she could book a Travel Lodge in Swindon and Gloucester and take the short drive to the Cotswolds.
    I stayed in the travel lodge near Swindon once....i wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I fully expect in the coming months for the PM to be asked by journalists that given no foreign travel is allowed, summer staycations are too expensive and inaccessible to most of the public and what will the government be doing about the price gouging.... cos its all so unfair....thinking of the little people here, not that my week vacation in the Cotswold will cost £20k. Shouldn't we open the borders and allow people at least a week away after all thess restrictions.....

    Camping in Northern Scotland - dirt cheap, right to roam, lots of empty space so ideal for social distancing. And he can't be chastised for recommending to the little people what he w̶a̶s̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶s̶u̶f̶f̶e̶r̶ really enjoyed himself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,349
    Full marks for effort, more interesting than most such fare.
    https://twitter.com/BrookesTimes/status/1355484057845592067/photo/1
  • A reply which rather conveniently misses the point being made which is they would love to get 16 hours contact time. Instead they are getting 4 or 5.

    Besides, physicists always were a bit thicker than the average student so needed more time with the lecturer looking over their shoulder :)

    One of the problems with being a physicist is that since it’s the foundation of chemistry, which is the foundation of biology, which explains the processes that create all arts and humanities, we unfortunately have to understand all things. We can’t help it, and I think most people realise they need to bow down before us and listen to our wisdom.
  • I fully expect in the coming months for the PM to be asked by journalists that given no foreign travel is allowed, summer staycations are too expensive and inaccessible to most of the public and what will the government be doing about the price gouging.... cos its all so unfair....thinking of the little people here, not that my week vacation in the Cotswold will cost £20k. Shouldn't we open the borders and allow people at least a week away after all thess restrictions...

    Thanks for the question Robert...next question please.

    That £20k in the Cotswolds indicates prices across the board are going to be pretty high - from campsites upwards. I booked my three weeks in Cornwall before Christmas so am sitting here right now feeling pretty smug!

  • Go round the house and you begin to understand why Sarah grated on Queen Annes nerves, at times.

    The grounds are magnificent on the other hand, and free to enter.
    Jamie Blandford is a great loss to our legislature. Blair has much to answer for.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,158
    edited January 2021

    Camping in Northern Scotland - dirt cheap, right to roam, lots of empty space so ideal for social distancing. And he can't be chastised for recommending to the little people what he w̶a̶s̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶s̶u̶f̶f̶e̶r̶ really enjoyed himself.
    Not sure Mrs S will be too happy to have hoards of English plague carriers descending on her green and pleasant lands.

    Malky G and his mates will be at the border, pitchforks in hand.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    According to news that husband has just read and related to me, this year's flu season has failed to materialise: cases down by 90% relative to last year. This was predicted given the current focus on respiratory hygiene, but all the same it is dramatic.

    One shudders to think how much worse this month would've been if the usual numbers of flu cases had occurred as well. The dreaded masks are still going to be with us this time next year, I'm sure of it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,607
    After a lot of to-ing and fro-ing this morning and discussions with NHS111, Husband is having a video assessment shortly, as his oxygen levels have been a bit concerning. Getting him to use the blasted oxymeter has been the biggest battle. He is an obstinate infuriating so-and-so, sometimes. But he's my obstinate infuriating so-and-so and I don't want to lose him.

    I am beside myself with worry. Fingers crossed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    One of the problems with being a physicist is that since it’s the foundation of chemistry, which is the foundation of biology, which explains the processes that create all arts and humanities, we unfortunately have to understand all things. We can’t help it, and I think most people realise they need to bow down before us and listen to our wisdom.
    Bollocks. I don't know much about physics but I know what I like.
  • algarkirk said:

    Yes, of course as a general principle leaving is an option. However questions still arise.

    How often can you hold a contest on the matter without causing disruption and dislocation?

    Who has the right to decide that and allied questions?

    When two or more countries become, for purposes of international law and relations, one country, who has the right to be asked over changes? Since X leaving country XY entails Y leaving country XY and forming a new unit, whether they like it or not, why should only the people of former X have a say?

    I can think of a union that puts no bar on how many times a member wishes to hold a referendum, demands no oversight of or involvement with said referendums and doesn't require that voters in any other member countries have votes.
    It's not the UK.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,877
    Cyclefree said:

    After a lot of to-ing and fro-ing this morning and discussions with NHS111, Husband is having a video assessment shortly, as his oxygen levels have been a bit concerning. Getting him to use the blasted oxymeter has been the biggest battle. He is an obstinate infuriating so-and-so, sometimes. But he's my obstinate infuriating so-and-so and I don't want to lose him.

    I am beside myself with worry. Fingers crossed.

    All our fingers are crossed on your behalf. And his.

    The oximeter was a godsend to a number of friends. Thank you, Foxy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    I stayed in the travel lodge near Swindon once....i wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy....
    Was it the proximity to Swindon?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251

    According to news that husband has just read and related to me, this year's flu season has failed to materialise: cases down by 90% relative to last year. This was predicted given the current focus on respiratory hygiene, but all the same it is dramatic.

    One shudders to think how much worse this month would've been if the usual numbers of flu cases had occurred as well. The dreaded masks are still going to be with us this time next year, I'm sure of it.

    If that keeps flu cases down by 90% next year too, seems a decent trade off.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Its also remiss that governments have let people die of flu in the tens of thousands every year.

    Or for that matter not abolished death entirely.
    That would only be relevant to the extent that earlier governments were held responsible for such deaths related to clear policy mistakes.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    kinabalu said:

    Was it the proximity to Swindon?
    Swindon’s main selling point has always been all the far better places you can drive to that aren’t that far from Swindon.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    A staycation (a portmanteau of "stay" and "vacation"), or holistay (a portmanteau of "holiday" and "stay"), is a period in which an individual or family stays home and participates in leisure activities within day trip distance of their home and does not require overnight accommodation.

    The meaning of staycation has been perverted by the travel industry for their own ends.
    You are not keen on the whole "travel" notion, I sense. No need for it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Not sure Mrs S will be too happy to have hoards of English plague carriers descending on her green and pleasant lands.

    Malky G and his mates will be at the border, pitchforks in hand.
    I don't know, the Plague should be on a short lead come the Summer, but if she's not happy it'll give her something else to complain about so she won't mind.

    Malc may have a penchant for inflammatory rhetoric but I gain the impression that he wouldn't go quite so far as to brutally murder passing tourists with an agricultural implement.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,542

    A staycation (a portmanteau of "stay" and "vacation"), or holistay (a portmanteau of "holiday" and "stay"), is a period in which an individual or family stays home and participates in leisure activities within day trip distance of their home and does not require overnight accommodation.

    The meaning of staycation has been perverted by the travel industry for their own ends.
    I had one for a week last October. The cumulative cost of train fares, meals out, beer in pubs and admission fees means I could have probably had a cheaper week abroad, even taking into account air fares and a hotel
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited January 2021
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1355877861211697156?s=20
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1355879107184250882?s=20

    If Scotland was vaccinating at the same rate as England, today's total would have been 53,343 - more than double what was accomplished
  • Alternatively she could book a Travel Lodge in Swindon or Gloucester and take the short drive to the Cotswolds.
    You can have my place just outside Cheltenham if you like, at the special knock-down rate of £15,000 per week on presentation of your PB membership card.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,877
    England only vaccine data out

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 539,691 10,252 549,943
    East Of England 63,147 1,239 64,386
    London 59,985 2,037 62,022
    Midlands 104,993 1,604 106,597
    North East And Yorkshire 84,371 1,324 85,695
    North West 68,576 1,350 69,926
    South East 87,835 1,632 89,467
    South West 68,366 1,055 69,421
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    According to news that husband has just read and related to me, this year's flu season has failed to materialise: cases down by 90% relative to last year. This was predicted given the current focus on respiratory hygiene, but all the same it is dramatic.

    One shudders to think how much worse this month would've been if the usual numbers of flu cases had occurred as well. The dreaded masks are still going to be with us this time next year, I'm sure of it.

    Yet the ONS are still finding a lot of deaths to which flu/pneumonia is considered a contributory factor:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15january2021

    If you're right about masks, then there will be no return to office. As long as we're having to wear masks, presumably social distancing will be a thing and we won't be able to pile on to trains as we used to.
  • kinabalu said:

    You are not keen on the whole "travel" notion, I sense. No need for it.
    Each to their own.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,877
    RobD said:
    Next stop - 1% of the population per day.
  • NEW THREAD

  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    On topic. If 1945 is anything to go by, even the glow of winning the war doesn’t distract from all the mistakes made years before.

    The bottom line is, none of us know what’s going to happen next.

    Even despite how well it is going here, There’s still difficult decisions ahead.

    1. Being ahead of the game, to what extent do we have to seal our borders, especially to the main business and holiday traffic, to keep out variants?
    2. can there there be agreed definition within and beyond our borders what “more than we need” is in the phrase Blair used “we will share when we have more than we need.”
    3. And will vaccine acquisition continue as a rat race, pressure to be on the best of the latest gear, and smartest new combinations every step of the way?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited January 2021
    Floater said:

    Justin seems to have forgotten Labours big 2 plans

    Close zoos

    Vaccinate fit young teachers at the expense of the vulnerable thus leading to up to 190 extra deaths a day

    They really can shut the fuck up
    Neither the demerits of the Opposition nor a successful vaccination rollout should or do - or imo will - give the Government a free pass for presiding over one of the very worst Covid outcomes in the world.
  • justin124 said:

    That would only be relevant to the extent that earlier governments were held responsible for such deaths related to clear policy mistakes.


    The government's big policy error was allowing far too much international travel.

    But Labour and the media have been uninterested in that open goal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251

    That £20k in the Cotswolds indicates prices across the board are going to be pretty high - from campsites upwards. I booked my three weeks in Cornwall before Christmas so am sitting here right now feeling pretty smug!

    A couple of weeks booked in Barra late summer - so long as they have cleansed the Bastard Bug off the island by then.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,511
    Yorkcity said:

    Yes I agree.
    I also think that leaving the EU against Scotland wishes, made another referendum more likely, due to such a fundamental change , to the 2014 referendum.
    So I take it you would agree that if the SNP made the fundamental change of taking Scotland into the EU (which I believe they plan to do without a referendum), that would demand another ref on UK membership?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,005
    It's alright. You can go to Whitley Bay for a week for £2.50 probably.

    It'll be brilliant.
  • England only vaccine data out

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 539,691 10,252 549,943
    East Of England 63,147 1,239 64,386
    London 59,985 2,037 62,022
    Midlands 104,993 1,604 106,597
    North East And Yorkshire 84,371 1,324 85,695
    North West 68,576 1,350 69,926
    South East 87,835 1,632 89,467
    South West 68,366 1,055 69,421

    FU will be reaching infinity :wink:

    Two thoughts:

    London seems to do relatively badly when the numbers are highest.

    A big increase in second doses - possible shift in policy with Pfizer supplies at risk ?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    edited January 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Neither the demerits of the Opposition nor a successful vaccination rollout should or do - or imo will - give the Government a free pass for presiding over one of the very worst Covid outcomes in the world.
    CLOSE THE ZOOS ALREADY
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Question off topic. Did Trump pardon Giuliani?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    Neither the demerits of the Opposition nor a successful vaccination rollout should or do - or imo will - give the Government a free pass for presiding over one of the very worst Covid outcomes in the world.
    Will that outcome look particularly exceptional by the time this is all over? There's still a way to go. It only takes half-a-dozen Western European countries to have a death rate as bad or worse than ours for the PM to be able to say "Open society, high population density, lots of old and sick people, highly virulent disease - therefore, lots of deaths sadly inevitable, after all it happened in all these other places." They won't necessarily get away with all their mistakes, but not being an obvious outlier might help.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027

    There'll be an awful lot more of this sort of thing if, as I suspect, foreign holidays are cancelled again this year but everyone can get about within our own borders.

    The tourism industry has had an absolutely torrid time and, with a market that's both desperate for a getaway and literally captive, price gouging is inevitable. Accommodation in Southwold or St Ives may be almost as pricey as the Ritz come August. The middle classes might struggle to afford a static caravan in Mablethorpe.
    Which is precisely why most people will leg it to Europe the first chance they get.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    As someone who forecast, and successfully bet, on the US election, Brexit and the 2015 General Election I am convinced Boris Johnson will win a crushing victory next time.

    As the vaccine rollout continues apace and we leave the virus behind, whilst others lag, Boris Johnson's star will continue to rise. He's had a very good year so far. I note that he has stopped his War on Whitehall, which is a very significant moment that has slipped under the radar (cf. the Frost appointment issue). It's the Carrie effect and the departure of that nasty piece of work Dominic Cummings.

    Our vaccine strategy is world beating. The British Press haven't even begun their acclamation yet.

    Sir Keir Starmer is worthy and dull. He was the right person for the last election not the next one.

    As someone who forecast, and successfully bet, on the US election, Brexit and the 2015 General Election I am convinced Boris Johnson will win a crushing victory next time.

    As the vaccine rollout continues apace and we leave the virus behind, whilst others lag, Boris Johnson's star will continue to rise. He's had a very good year so far. I note that he has stopped his War on Whitehall, which is a very significant moment that has slipped under the radar (cf. the Frost appointment issue). It's the Carrie effect and the departure of that nasty piece of work Dominic Cummings.

    Our vaccine strategy is world beating. The British Press haven't even begun their acclamation yet.

    Sir Keir Starmer is worthy and dull. He was the right person for the last election not the next one.

    As someone who forecast, and successfully bet, on the US election, Brexit and the 2015 General Election I am convinced Boris Johnson will win a crushing victory next time.

    As the vaccine rollout continues apace and we leave the virus behind, whilst others lag, Boris Johnson's star will continue to rise. He's had a very good year so far. I note that he has stopped his War on Whitehall, which is a very significant moment that has slipped under the radar (cf. the Frost appointment issue). It's the Carrie effect and the departure of that nasty piece of work Dominic Cummings.

    Our vaccine strategy is world beating. The British Press haven't even begun their acclamation yet.

    Sir Keir Starmer is worthy and dull. He was the right person for the last election not the next one.
    Did you not predict with some confidence that Biden would win Florida - just a few days before the election?
  • So I take it you would agree that if the SNP made the fundamental change of taking Scotland into the EU (which I believe they plan to do without a referendum), that would demand another ref on UK membership?
    Not sure where you got the idea that the SNP plan to unilaterally take Scotland back into the EU (regardless of all the other hurdles that that may require) without a referendum? Got a link for that?

    Of course if losing a third of their land territory gave rUK voters such an attack of the angsts that they elected a government committed to another ref on UK membership, that would be up to them, what with sovereignty and democracy and that.
  • One of the problems with being a physicist is that since it’s the foundation of chemistry, which is the foundation of biology, which explains the processes that create all arts and humanities, we unfortunately have to understand all things. We can’t help it, and I think most people realise they need to bow down before us and listen to our wisdom.
    Just third rate mathematicians really :)
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,199

    I stayed in the travel lodge near Swindon once....i wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy....
    Likewise. The time I stayed there I ended up sleeping in the car.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    There'll be an awful lot more of this sort of thing if, as I suspect, foreign holidays are cancelled again this year but everyone can get about within our own borders.

    The tourism industry has had an absolutely torrid time and, with a market that's both desperate for a getaway and literally captive, price gouging is inevitable. Accommodation in Southwold or St Ives may be almost as pricey as the Ritz come August. The middle classes might struggle to afford a static caravan in Mablethorpe.
    With 320 + sunny days each year we're content to stay home just looking out from the terrace...


  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    An interesting idea.

    When do the new boundaries come in? The Tories would probably want those in place.
    The new boundaries are expected in mid- 2023.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    felix said:

    With 320 + sunny days each year we're content to stay home just looking out from the terrace...


    No thanks - looks far too dry...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    CLOSE THE ZOOS ALREADY
    This comment is not befitting of a PhD supervisor.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    felix said:

    With 320 + sunny days each year we're content to stay home just looking out from the terrace...


    Nice - but makes me think of snakes & lizards.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited January 2021
    justin124 said:

    Did you not predict with some confidence that Biden would win Florida - just a few days before the election?
    Rose was calling a Trump landslide for most of 2020.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,511
    malcolmg said:

    Who would believe that lying turd in any case, those numbers will be faker than a three bob bit. Half them will be sitting in warehouses down south. We will see when Scottish Government publish the real numbers this week, what is the betting Union jack will be lying.
    They -are- sitting in Warehouses down south - waiting to be ordered up by the agencies responsible for the Scottish rollout. The same as Wales and Northern Ireland.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,849

    A staycation (a portmanteau of "stay" and "vacation"), or holistay (a portmanteau of "holiday" and "stay"), is a period in which an individual or family stays home and participates in leisure activities within day trip distance of their home and does not require overnight accommodation.

    The meaning of staycation has been perverted by the travel industry for their own ends.
    Loads of normal people stay at home and go out for days. And there's always Premier Inn.

  • felix said:

    To be fair I think that all the vaccines are pretty similar in this respect. Which is why the comments of Macron were so cretinously stupid.
    Having said that there is a report today of 11/12 deaths in a spanish care home within 1 week of all 12 receiving the Pfizer vaccine. I've read nothing similar from any where else where much larger numbers of vaccines have been given. Hoping that this is the result of lax restrictions, etc. Would be interested to know if other instances have been recorded elsewhere.
    If the deaths were within a week those who died were probably already infected when they were vaccinated. Worst case scenario is that they were infected by the person giving them the vaccine.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,464
    edited January 2021
    A successful LOTO needs charisma - the ability to spin bullshit convincingly and get floating voters to lap it up. Blair had that in abundance. Cameron (against Gordon Brown) had just about enough. Boris also has some. Starmer doesn't seem to have it. So, unless this government falls apart spectacularly, I doubt SKS will pull it off.
This discussion has been closed.