People know how much I love my straws to cling to, but there is evidence that global cases have been on their most sustained downward trend since the pandemic started for the last couple of weeks now - largely driven by ourselves and the US. If (big if) that is right then it should be showing up in the mortality rates soon as well. Fingers crossed.
Does that not however leave aside the possibility that there are a great many cases out there in countries with less efficient testing regimes that are not being identified?
Yes but Worldometers is just a crude aggregation which, in this case, helps. It has simply been totting up all the cases from all countries regardless of testing efficiency. So if one assumes that countries with poor testing have consistently poor testing, which I don’t think an unreasonable assumption, then the quality of their inputs to the site will have been the same throughout. Accordingly the up slope will be as accurate or inaccurate as the downslope. There has to be a reason for the downslope and you are suggesting that might be because testing is becoming less accurate and finding fewer cases - which doesn’t seem right,
I think my answer would be that if some countries are hardly testing at all then cases could be spiralling out of control without being noticed and testing becoming, by default, less accurate as it is finding a smaller percentage of cases.
It is of course good that cases in the US and UK are declining but I don’t see any special reason for celebrating.
Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
You really are unpleasant
That's what she said....
No need to add to her unpleasantness
I'm not adding, i'm highlighting her comments from Skynews the other night. I would never agree with anything that woman says
Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
You really are unpleasant
That's what she said....
No need to add to her unpleasantness
I'm not adding, i'm highlighting her comments from Skynews the other night. I would never agree with anything that woman says
It was of course an extraordinarily stupid comment, even by the very low standards of Miss Piggy, because we’re all going to die anyway.
The point is, most of us see no reason to rush the process.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
The converse of the OP is also true - no opposition should expect to walk to victory on the basis of Covid in 2020-21 especially when the election possibly ain't until 2024.
I do think many in Labour, particularly the more vocal lot online and away from any relevance, will assume so, and continue to assume that memes and slogans will win the Great Twitter Election of ̶2̶0̶1̶0̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶5̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶7̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶9̶ 2024.
It also seems reasonably likely that not all of the party leaders now will be the party leaders then.
Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
You really are unpleasant
That's what she said....
No need to add to her unpleasantness
I'm not adding, i'm highlighting her comments from Skynews the other night. I would never agree with anything that woman says
It was of course an extraordinarily stupid comment, even by the very low standards of Miss Piggy, because we’re all going to die anyway.
The point is, most of us see no reason to rush the process.
I'll agree with that, some of us are uncomfortably close to the end of the motorway anyway.
‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’
That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.
Data + Journalist = Bollocks.
How about doing some research before spouting your usual bollocks.
It was based on a YouGov poll.
The figures were produced by the statisticians who work for YouGov, some of them have even worked for the ONS, which is pretty good.
It was also backed up by other evidence, such as 'The average number of Facebook friends for an adult is now 338. The median number of Facebook friends is 200.'
They should have used the Facebook concept of "Close Friends", not "Friends" - the latter being fairly meaningless.
The other factor that may have zoomed over the heads of some people is that they are using the government's figures which has a 28 day cut off point, people will make their own judgment on whether someone who died after that 28 day cut off period.
But if you really want to precise, one in twenty adults know a family member who has died from Covid-19, that's still a worrying figure for the Tory party, when you factor in 66% of all voters and 42% of Tory voters think the there is more the government could reasonably have done to combat the disease.
Just wait till the dust settles. This narcissist who adores dressing up with more costume changes than Danny La Rue will be out on his arse. Just the tiniest bit of reflection by the voters after the immediate dangers have passed and he'll be lucky if he isn't exiled let alone be permitted to remain PM
Are you talking about Johnson?
He'll face the electorate in 2024 and probably win a very tight race and do another 3/4 of a term is my guess at this point.
Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
You really are unpleasant
That's what she said....
At least IO was spared the horror of house hunting in Hartlepool when Tice's bid to be the MP went dicks up.
It also seems reasonably likely that not all of the party leaders now will be the party leaders then.
I think it's close to certain that they will be the party leaders. Johnson is going nowhere; he's even won BigG back. Labour let Corbyn lose two GEs so SKS will get at least one.
‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’
That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.
Data + Journalist = Bollocks.
How about doing some research before spouting your usual bollocks.
It was based on a YouGov poll.
The figures were produced by the statisticians who work for YouGov, some of them have even worked for the ONS, which is pretty good.
It was also backed up by other evidence, such as 'The average number of Facebook friends for an adult is now 338. The median number of Facebook friends is 200.'
I wouldn't call a Facebook friend a 'close friend'. I'm always being invited to make a friend of someone who is a friend of a friend, and I very often can't work out whose friend they might be. And no, I almost never sign them up. I think I know some 25-30 people who have tested positive, but although some are extended family I would only describe two or three as being 'close;'. I know a couple of people who caught the virus in hospital, and died, but they were very ill anyway. (eg 90+ and with a serious heart condition.)
Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
You really are unpleasant
That's what she said....
No need to add to her unpleasantness
I'm not adding, i'm highlighting her comments from Skynews the other night. I would never agree with anything that woman says
It was of course an extraordinarily stupid comment, even by the very low standards of Miss Piggy, because we’re all going to die anyway.
The point is, most of us see no reason to rush the process.
I'll agree with that, some of us are uncomfortably close to the end of the motorway anyway.
I give you Ecclesiastes 9:12:
Moreover, no one knows when their hour will come:
As fish are caught in a cruel net, or birds are taken in a snare, so people are trapped by evil times that fall unexpectedly upon them.
Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
You really are unpleasant
That's what she said....
No need to add to her unpleasantness
I'm not adding, i'm highlighting her comments from Skynews the other night. I would never agree with anything that woman says
It was of course an extraordinarily stupid comment, even by the very low standards of Miss Piggy, because we’re all going to die anyway.
The point is, most of us see no reason to rush the process.
I'll agree with that, some of us are uncomfortably close to the end of the motorway anyway.
Same for me, I am a junction or two away Pont Abraham too, but I am still hoping for a few miles on the A48 and A40 before hitting the B roads, yet.
‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’
That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.
Data + Journalist = Bollocks.
How about doing some research before spouting your usual bollocks.
It was based on a YouGov poll.
The figures were produced by the statisticians who work for YouGov, some of them have even worked for the ONS, which is pretty good.
It was also backed up by other evidence, such as 'The average number of Facebook friends for an adult is now 338. The median number of Facebook friends is 200.'
I wouldn't call a Facebook friend a 'close friend'. I'm always being invited to make a friend of someone who is a friend of a friend, and I very often can't work out whose friend they might be. And no, I almost never sign them up. I think I know some 25-30 people who have tested positive, but although some are extended family I would only describe two or three as being 'close;'. I know a couple of people who caught the virus in hospital, and died, but they were very ill anyway. (eg 90+ and with a serious heart condition.)
Neither would I do, but even if fewer than a third of your friends on facebook are close you're near 60 close friends, add in family, and it is near the c.80 family members/close friends that TLG86 was talking about.
People know how much I love my straws to cling to, but there is evidence that global cases have been on their most sustained downward trend since the pandemic started for the last couple of weeks now - largely driven by ourselves and the US. If (big if) that is right then it should be showing up in the mortality rates soon as well. Fingers crossed.
Does that not however leave aside the possibility that there are a great many cases out there in countries with less efficient testing regimes that are not being identified?
Yes but Worldometers is just a crude aggregation which, in this case, helps. It has simply been totting up all the cases from all countries regardless of testing efficiency. So if one assumes that countries with poor testing have consistently poor testing, which I don’t think an unreasonable assumption, then the quality of their inputs to the site will have been the same throughout. Accordingly the up slope will be as accurate or inaccurate as the downslope. There has to be a reason for the downslope and you are suggesting that might be because testing is becoming less accurate and finding fewer cases - which doesn’t seem right,
I think my answer would be that if some countries are hardly testing at all then cases could be spiralling out of control without being noticed and testing becoming, by default, less accurate as it is finding a smaller percentage of cases.
It is of course good that cases in the US and UK are declining but I don’t see any special reason for celebrating.
I’m not sure it’s true that many countries are hardly testing at all. 100% agree that we have no cause for celebration, as I said in my post above I am a professional straw clutcher, but it’s not just us and the States. Even where other new variants have been found cases have plateaued (Brazil) or are falling quite sharply (South Africa). If you want a classic case of Farr’s Law seemingly in action, look at mortality in India.
Rachel Reeves on Sophy trying to justify labour's teacher policy when her Welsh colleague, Mark Drakeford, rejects the policy saying he will only follow JCVI advice
Its largely been a game of two halves, hasn't it? In the first half there were some unnecessary errors that cost lives, the moving of infected patients out of hospitals and into care homes, the complete failure to protect our borders, the shambles of the tracing app, the ridiculous complexity of tiers reducing compliance and understanding, overall not great although the scale and effectiveness of the economic interventions in furlough, grants, bounce back loans grants for the self employed etc were good points
In the second half some of the seeds planted in the first have blossomed. The early and massive investment in vaccine and vaccine production in the UK has paid off in a staggering way, after the early shambles our testing is on a massive scale, our roll out of vaccines is proceeding exceptionally, the perception of overall performance is improving albeit we are still screwing up quarantine.
Overall, the success with the vaccines edges me to a B+ or just maybe an A-. Could have been much better, could have been a lot worse.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
Rachel Reeves on Sophy trying to justify labour's teacher policy when her Welsh colleague, Mark Drakeford, rejects the policy saying he will only follow JCVI advice
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
Then you are letting your admirable loyalty to the Conservative Party get in the way of considering the possible downsides to the government's choices.
Yes, CTPP is big, and yes, it deepens some existing trade relationships. But it's also a blooming long way away, which makes it less useful. We don't know how those two factors interact, so we don't know whether this is a win, lose or draw for the UK. Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
So if this turns into a net loss for the UK, or requires us to swallow things that we otherwise wouldn't (on farming standards, say), what do we do next?
Assuming the EU vaccine program doesn't suddenly start going gangbusters and project the EU nations to the top of the league table, there has to be a reasonable chance of the EU Commission facing a vote of confidence in late spring.
Remember that the Parliament cannot vote confidence in any Commissioner individually, only the Commission as a whole.
Very clever rule. Makes what was already a tough process near impossible I'd say.
Just wait till the dust settles. This narcissist who adores dressing up with more costume changes than Danny La Rue will be out on his arse. Just the tiniest bit of reflection by the voters after the immediate dangers have passed and he'll be lucky if he isn't exiled let alone be permitted to remain PM
Yes - Macron is in trouble. Ironic that Trumps closest friend could be joining him soon.
Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
You really are unpleasant
That's what she said....
No need to add to her unpleasantness
I'm not adding, i'm highlighting her comments from Skynews the other night. I would never agree with anything that woman says
It was of course an extraordinarily stupid comment, even by the very low standards of Miss Piggy, because we’re all going to die anyway.
The point is, most of us see no reason to rush the process.
I'll agree with that, some of us are uncomfortably close to the end of the motorway anyway.
Same for me, I am a junction or two away Pont Abraham too, but I am still hoping for a few miles on the A48 and A40 before hitting the B roads, yet.
omg yes, Pont Abraham is bad enough, even now as it's been turned into our "lorry Park" I hope to reach the A477 by the end.
Nice story in The Sunday Times of how a St Austell doctors' practice unexpectedly got an extra consignment of Pfizer vaccine. They managed to get the word out, folks in, vaccine used within 24 hours.
In doing so, they jabbed more people in that period than in all of Latvia, Lithuania and Ecuador combined. Which is rather sobering.
1) Schools are not safe, partly because the government is obsessed with declaring them safe rather then making them so;
2) Although they do (contra earlier indications) want teachers vaccinated before reopening, they point out that won’t stop infections among children if we just go straight back, so they are advising a rota system instead;
3) There will need to be additional support for those who are poorest or who have SEN to help them catch up.
Can’t really argue with much of that, although as I’ve said I don’t see the point of vaccinating healthy teachers ahead of vulnerable parents.
They then do go off on a left wing rant about restructuring society, but that doesn’t invalidate their opening.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Its largely been a game of two halves, hasn't it? In the first half there were some unnecessary errors that cost lives, the moving of infected patients out of hospitals and into care homes, the complete failure to protect our borders, the shambles of the tracing app, the ridiculous complexity of tiers reducing compliance and understanding, overall not great although the scale and effectiveness of the economic interventions in furlough, grants, bounce back loans grants for the self employed etc were good points
In the second half some of the seeds planted in the first have blossomed. The early and massive investment in vaccine and vaccine production in the UK has paid off in a staggering way, after the early shambles our testing is on a massive scale, our roll out of vaccines is proceeding exceptionally, the perception of overall performance is improving albeit we are still screwing up quarantine.
Overall, the success with the vaccines edges me to a B+ or just maybe an A-. Could have been much better, could have been a lot worse.
The communications throughout has been pretty awful, making possibly understandable mistakes indefensible and, as you say, policies that were so complicated that it actively hindered what they were trying to achieve.
They've still not worked out the right approach for it, giving it the weight and sensitivity it warrants but also knocking the many, many nonsenses on the head, promptly and efficiently.
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
Nice story in The Sunday Times of how a St Austell doctors' practice unexpectedly got an extra consignment of Pfizer vaccine. They managed to get the word out, folks in, vaccine used within 24 hours.
In doing so, they jabbed more people in that period than in all of Latvia, Lithuania and Ecuador combined. Which is rather sobering.
Seems an odd combination to pick. Did you mean Estonia?
Who are the NEA and why would it help them if we closed schools forever?
Fantastic news!
Since Andrew Neil has thrown off the burdensome shackles of BBC non-partisanship rules, it seems he can make up any old right wing bollocks that takes his fancy.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
What was just petty was the EU trying to triple the fees for our continued use of the Erasmus scheme. A ploy which went about as well as their vaccines strategy.
Just wait till the dust settles. This narcissist who adores dressing up with more costume changes than Danny La Rue will be out on his arse. Just the tiniest bit of reflection by the voters after the immediate dangers have passed and he'll be lucky if he isn't exiled let alone be permitted to remain PM
Yes - Macron is in trouble. Ironic that Trumps closest friend could be joining him soon.
1) Schools are not safe, partly because the government is obsessed with declaring them safe rather then making them so;
2) Although they do (contra earlier indications) want teachers vaccinated before reopening, they point out that won’t stop infections among children if we just go straight back, so they are advising a rota system instead;
3) There will need to be additional support for those who are poorest or who have SEN to help them catch up.
Can’t really argue with much of that, although as I’ve said I don’t see the point of vaccinating healthy teachers ahead of vulnerable parents.
They then do go off on a left wing rant about restructuring society, but that doesn’t invalidate their opening.
So basically - no need for teachers to queue jump - would that be fair?
Also kids will not be vaccinated - so are we waiting for herd immunity for adults?
Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.
I am thinking that is not a good sign.
Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.
Maybe less of that kind of analogy? It would be good to get some more gender diversity on here and that sort of thing doesn’t help. There are a lot of equally colourful analogies out there. Admittedly I can’t think of one immediately but still...
You may be right, although it assumes people fit the stereotype of what analogies men and women utilise.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
Cultural ties? To anti-vaxxers running the show in Paris? German politicians talking of showing their 'weapons' in a vaccine war? The EC smashing Article 16 without consultation? What kind of cultural ties do you mean? There is also a faint hint of the 'we aren't like those people from distant lands' notable today. I'm not comfortable with it.
If the EU hadn't wanted us to join their vaccination scheme on such punitive terms, and driven us from any prospect of joining, we might be in the same boat as them right now.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
Its largely been a game of two halves, hasn't it? In the first half there were some unnecessary errors that cost lives, the moving of infected patients out of hospitals and into care homes, the complete failure to protect our borders, the shambles of the tracing app, the ridiculous complexity of tiers reducing compliance and understanding, overall not great although the scale and effectiveness of the economic interventions in furlough, grants, bounce back loans grants for the self employed etc were good points
In the second half some of the seeds planted in the first have blossomed. The early and massive investment in vaccine and vaccine production in the UK has paid off in a staggering way, after the early shambles our testing is on a massive scale, our roll out of vaccines is proceeding exceptionally, the perception of overall performance is improving albeit we are still screwing up quarantine.
Overall, the success with the vaccines edges me to a B+ or just maybe an A-. Could have been much better, could have been a lot worse.
The communications throughout has been pretty awful, making possibly understandable mistakes indefensible and, as you say, policies that were so complicated that it actively hindered what they were trying to achieve.
They've still not worked out the right approach for it, giving it the weight and sensitivity it warrants but also knocking the many, many nonsenses on the head, promptly and efficiently.
I wouldn't disagree. For every short simple message such as Face space hands there has been conflicting messaging and at times a reluctance to see the obvious because it was unpalatable (eg Christmas). The way schools and exams have been handled both north and south of the borders has bordered on a disgrace. But you don't need to study the likes of Kahneman to realise that a strong finish may well be what counts.
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
Then you are letting your admirable loyalty to the Conservative Party get in the way of considering the possible downsides to the government's choices.
Yes, CTPP is big, and yes, it deepens some existing trade relationships. But it's also a blooming long way away, which makes it less useful. We don't know how those two factors interact, so we don't know whether this is a win, lose or draw for the UK. Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
So if this turns into a net loss for the UK, or requires us to swallow things that we otherwise wouldn't (on farming standards, say), what do we do next?
At present there is a lot of grieving for the loss of EU membership, though maybe less after this last few days debacle, but nothing remains the same and we cannot foresee the future to the extent you are suggesting, but I believe even the EU will have to change away from more Europe to have any chance of surviving in its present form
Just wait till the dust settles. This narcissist who adores dressing up with more costume changes than Danny La Rue will be out on his arse. Just the tiniest bit of reflection by the voters after the immediate dangers have passed and he'll be lucky if he isn't exiled let alone be permitted to remain PM
Yes - Macron is in trouble. Ironic that Trumps closest friend could be joining him soon.
I thought Salmond was found not guilty?
Sssshhh - you'll bring out the nats - much too early for the mossie bites!
Its largely been a game of two halves, hasn't it? In the first half there were some unnecessary errors that cost lives, the moving of infected patients out of hospitals and into care homes, the complete failure to protect our borders, the shambles of the tracing app, the ridiculous complexity of tiers reducing compliance and understanding, overall not great although the scale and effectiveness of the economic interventions in furlough, grants, bounce back loans grants for the self employed etc were good points
In the second half some of the seeds planted in the first have blossomed. The early and massive investment in vaccine and vaccine production in the UK has paid off in a staggering way, after the early shambles our testing is on a massive scale, our roll out of vaccines is proceeding exceptionally, the perception of overall performance is improving albeit we are still screwing up quarantine.
Overall, the success with the vaccines edges me to a B+ or just maybe an A-. Could have been much better, could have been a lot worse.
They (government or NHS I could not say) are still trying to move infected patients out of hospital to care homes - my father was one of them and this was as recently as about 3 weeks ago.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
Cultural ties? To anti-vaxxers running the show in Paris? German politicians talking of showing their 'weapons' in a vaccine war? The EC smashing Article 16 without consultation? What kind of cultural ties do you mean? There is also a faint hint of the 'we aren't like those people from distant lands' notable today. I'm not comfortable with it.
Well, can't object to 'cultural ties' with Australia, New Zealand etc can I! Was talking to a (now) Kiwi cousin yesterday! Fortunately politicians come and go and there's so much we have in common with the rest of Europe.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
On that argument everyone would stay home and sod the cultural exchange.
Micheal Martin on Marr trying to dance a fine line of lightly scalding the EU without seeming disloyal to the EU vaccine programme or disloyal to the Commission's dispute with AZ. Claiming the EU gave AZ a lot of money for research and production just like the UK.
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
Someone down thread spoke of straw clutching. I know you try hard to find the silver lining but digging that one up must have taken a research department that would dwarf Saatchi's Worldwide
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
On that argument everyone would stay home and sod the cultural exchange.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
My daughter voted remain and her very positive experiences on Erasmus played a large part in that but she has also been quite enthused about the Turing scheme. In her time there were exchange schemes with both the US and the far east but they didn't have the same funding attached and you needed to be pretty well heeled to take advantage. The scheme seems to be based upon Erasmus with a similar level of funding but without the geographical restrictions.
Of course there is still some uncertainty about how the EU institutions will respond to requests for students to do a year there for students not on Erasmus. It really shouldn't be a problem because they had non EU students before but after the vaccine fiasco little can be taken for granted.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
I think that many of tomorrow's students having the opportunity to study in the US will be very grateful for the Turing scheme which takes Erasmus and applies it worldwide
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
Kahneman should be required reading for all. What is the episode that brings the covid story to an end and therefore people remember most? Vaccinations or facing the economic reality when govt support taps are turned off? I don't know but could make a case for either, it will probably vary a lot by person and personal circumstances.
Just a reminder that over 25% of all UK Covid deaths have happened in the last month. The various UK administrations fucked up winter so badly I can barely. Contain my anger.
Micheal Martin on Marr trying to dance a fine line of lightly scalding the EU without seeming disloyal to the EU vaccine programme or disloyal to the Commission's dispute with AZ. Claiming the EU gave AZ a lot of money for research and production just like the UK.
And they've had major production delays and delivery failings, just like the UK. Funny they seem to keep forgetting that during their tantrums.
1) Schools are not safe, partly because the government is obsessed with declaring them safe rather then making them so;
2) Although they do (contra earlier indications) want teachers vaccinated before reopening, they point out that won’t stop infections among children if we just go straight back, so they are advising a rota system instead;
3) There will need to be additional support for those who are poorest or who have SEN to help them catch up.
Can’t really argue with much of that, although as I’ve said I don’t see the point of vaccinating healthy teachers ahead of vulnerable parents.
They then do go off on a left wing rant about restructuring society, but that doesn’t invalidate their opening.
So basically - no need for teachers to queue jump - would that be fair?
Also kids will not be vaccinated - so are we waiting for herd immunity for adults?
If vulnerable parents are vaccinated, then children - who don’t as a general rule become seriously ill - should be OK.
On your first point, I would say less ‘no need’ than ‘no benefit,’ although that may be a distinction without a difference.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
My daughter voted remain and her very positive experiences on Erasmus played a large part in that but she has also been quite enthused about the Turing scheme. In her time there were exchange schemes with both the US and the far east but they didn't have the same funding attached and you needed to be pretty well heeled to take advantage. The scheme seems to be based upon Erasmus with a similar level of funding but without the geographical restrictions.
Of course there is still some uncertainty about how the EU institutions will respond to requests for students to do a year there for students not on Erasmus. It really shouldn't be a problem because they had non EU students before but after the vaccine fiasco little can be taken for granted.
Elder son had an Erasmus supported year in Germany during his Electronic Engineering degree; younger son a year in a Texas university doing his Economics course. The latter was directly managed by the Universities concerned. I would say the German experience was better and has had more lasting results, but that could well be due to the personalities. Elder son's son is about (assuming results) to start at Uni, but I don't yet know what, if any, exchange etc opportunities there will be.
Micheal Martin on Marr trying to dance a fine line of lightly scalding the EU without seeming disloyal to the EU vaccine programme or disloyal to the Commission's dispute with AZ. Claiming the EU gave AZ a lot of money for research and production just like the UK.
Sanofi got a downpayment of 324m Euros for their failed vaccine.
The Pasteur Institute - which stopped its unsuccessful Covid vaccine trial this week - benefited from this: "In an unprecedented move last March, President Emmanuel Macron increased France’s scientific research budget by 5 billion euros over the next 10 years and set up an emergency fund of 50 million euros to finance the search for a vaccine against COVID-19.
The EU has had the misfortune of backing nags that keep pulling up lame.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
It's just as easy to get to Japan as it is to Germany. You get on an aeroplane.
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
Even if the theory floats, I still can't see the Tories avoiding being holed below the waterline, once Sunak runs out of cheques to write.
That is easy, and has betting implications. A snap election before 2024. The Tories' sweet spot is after Covid is beaten but before the economy fails. Boris retiring would add a new leader's bounce, and Boris himself would go down in history as an electoral colossus who delivered Brexit and conquered Covid.
Ironically the country might do better with Boris in place. We do not need another austerity hawk to close down what is left of the economy.
Just wait till the dust settles. This narcissist who adores dressing up with more costume changes than Danny La Rue will be out on his arse. Just the tiniest bit of reflection by the voters after the immediate dangers have passed and he'll be lucky if he isn't exiled let alone be permitted to remain PM
Are you talking about Johnson?
He'll face the electorate in 2024 and probably win a very tight race and do another 3/4 of a term is my guess at this point.
Are you talking about Johnson?
Yes. The very same. Happily I seem to have found someone who's ability to predict the political future is even worse than mine..
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
Kahneman should be required reading for all. What is the episode that brings the covid story to an end and therefore people remember most? Vaccinations or facing the economic reality when govt support taps are turned off? I don't know but could make a case for either, it will probably vary a lot by person and personal circumstances.
In my low moments (of which there are many) I get overly nostalgic. While moaning the other day about missing going into London my wife reminded me the other day that this time last year I was threatening to quit my job because I never saw my house in weekday daylight between mid November and mid February.
Its largely been a game of two halves, hasn't it? In the first half there were some unnecessary errors that cost lives, the moving of infected patients out of hospitals and into care homes, the complete failure to protect our borders, the shambles of the tracing app, the ridiculous complexity of tiers reducing compliance and understanding, overall not great although the scale and effectiveness of the economic interventions in furlough, grants, bounce back loans grants for the self employed etc were good points
In the second half some of the seeds planted in the first have blossomed. The early and massive investment in vaccine and vaccine production in the UK has paid off in a staggering way, after the early shambles our testing is on a massive scale, our roll out of vaccines is proceeding exceptionally, the perception of overall performance is improving albeit we are still screwing up quarantine.
Overall, the success with the vaccines edges me to a B+ or just maybe an A-. Could have been much better, could have been a lot worse.
They (government or NHS I could not say) are still trying to move infected patients out of hospital to care homes - my father was one of them and this was as recently as about 3 weeks ago.
That's appalling. I have been involved in some regulatory cases about care homes struggling with Covid. What is blindingly obvious is that the staff in those homes are of a much lower quality (and much more badly paid) than those in hospital, they don't have the training to implement infection control, they don't have the skills to use PPE properly, they really struggle with patients with limited understanding who want to move about and sit in the chairs in the lounge like they are used to and have very limited comprehension of social distancing.
No doubt I am seeing the worst and there is good practice in places but it seems more than a bit unrealistic to me to expect care homes to provide the same level of protection and control that you would see in hospital.
Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
You really are unpleasant
That's what she said....
No need to add to her unpleasantness
I'm not adding, i'm highlighting her comments from Skynews the other night. I would never agree with anything that woman says
It was of course an extraordinarily stupid comment, even by the very low standards of Miss Piggy, because we’re all going to die anyway.
The point is, most of us see no reason to rush the process.
I'll agree with that, some of us are uncomfortably close to the end of the motorway anyway.
I give you Ecclesiastes 9:12:
Moreover, no one knows when their hour will come:
As fish are caught in a cruel net, or birds are taken in a snare, so people are trapped by evil times that fall unexpectedly upon them.
An excellent thought for a Coronavirus Pandemic Sunday. And I speak as an agnostic.
"Evil times" does sum up our predicament, not only the pestilence, but some of the dark characters tasked with navigating us through it.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
I think that many of tomorrow's students having the opportunity to study in the US will be very grateful for the Turing scheme which takes Erasmus and applies it worldwide
See my other post; familial experience suggests...... and I realise n=1.....that university experience in Europe is better than that in the US.
Wide-ranging assumption based on limited experience, but supported by reading.
Just a reminder that over 25% of all UK Covid deaths have happened in the last month. The various UK administrations fucked up winter so badly I can barely. Contain my anger.
Do you think uniquely fucked up, or just in line with the rest of the west? Genuine question. I think we have made some big errors, but the have been no easy choices. The economy plays a huge role in government thinking. Otherwise lock everything up until 0 cases.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
It's just as easy to get to Japan as it is to Germany. You get on an aeroplane.
Nice story in The Sunday Times of how a St Austell doctors' practice unexpectedly got an extra consignment of Pfizer vaccine. They managed to get the word out, folks in, vaccine used within 24 hours.
In doing so, they jabbed more people in that period than in all of Latvia, Lithuania and Ecuador combined. Which is rather sobering.
Seems an odd combination to pick. Did you mean Estonia?
Micheal Martin on Marr trying to dance a fine line of lightly scalding the EU without seeming disloyal to the EU vaccine programme or disloyal to the Commission's dispute with AZ. Claiming the EU gave AZ a lot of money for research and production just like the UK.
And they've had major production delays and delivery failings, just like the UK. Funny they seem to keep forgetting that during their tantrums.
I’m pretty annoyed that none of our journalists/media have put to anyone from the eu that I have seen where the lack of delivery to schedule to the uk has been an issue. The eu seems to think it’s all been rosy for us, and it really hasn’t. At one point we were expecting 20 million doses ready before Christmas.
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
Even if the theory floats, I still can't see the Tories avoiding being holed below the waterline, once Sunak runs out of cheques to write.
That is easy, and has betting implications. A snap election before 2024. The Tories' sweet spot is after Covid is beaten but before the economy fails. Boris retiring would add a new leader's bounce, and Boris himself would go down in history as an electoral colossus who delivered Brexit and conquered Covid.
Ironically the country might do better with Boris in place. We do not need another austerity hawk to close down what is left of the economy.
An interesting idea.
When do the new boundaries come in? The Tories would probably want those in place.
The stories on Merck/AZ when the process was kicking off, if accurate, could be a rare example of an individual minister making a very real differece, positively.
Its largely been a game of two halves, hasn't it? In the first half there were some unnecessary errors that cost lives, the moving of infected patients out of hospitals and into care homes, the complete failure to protect our borders, the shambles of the tracing app, the ridiculous complexity of tiers reducing compliance and understanding, overall not great although the scale and effectiveness of the economic interventions in furlough, grants, bounce back loans grants for the self employed etc were good points
In the second half some of the seeds planted in the first have blossomed. The early and massive investment in vaccine and vaccine production in the UK has paid off in a staggering way, after the early shambles our testing is on a massive scale, our roll out of vaccines is proceeding exceptionally, the perception of overall performance is improving albeit we are still screwing up quarantine.
Overall, the success with the vaccines edges me to a B+ or just maybe an A-. Could have been much better, could have been a lot worse.
The communications throughout has been pretty awful, making possibly understandable mistakes indefensible and, as you say, policies that were so complicated that it actively hindered what they were trying to achieve.
They've still not worked out the right approach for it, giving it the weight and sensitivity it warrants but also knocking the many, many nonsenses on the head, promptly and efficiently.
I wouldn't disagree. For every short simple message such as Face space hands there has been conflicting messaging and at times a reluctance to see the obvious because it was unpalatable (eg Christmas). The way schools and exams have been handled both north and south of the borders has bordered on a disgrace. But you don't need to study the likes of Kahneman to realise that a strong finish may well be what counts.
Eat Out To Help Out....is going to take a lot of explaining.
Its largely been a game of two halves, hasn't it? In the first half there were some unnecessary errors that cost lives, the moving of infected patients out of hospitals and into care homes, the complete failure to protect our borders, the shambles of the tracing app, the ridiculous complexity of tiers reducing compliance and understanding, overall not great although the scale and effectiveness of the economic interventions in furlough, grants, bounce back loans grants for the self employed etc were good points
In the second half some of the seeds planted in the first have blossomed. The early and massive investment in vaccine and vaccine production in the UK has paid off in a staggering way, after the early shambles our testing is on a massive scale, our roll out of vaccines is proceeding exceptionally, the perception of overall performance is improving albeit we are still screwing up quarantine.
Overall, the success with the vaccines edges me to a B+ or just maybe an A-. Could have been much better, could have been a lot worse.
They (government or NHS I could not say) are still trying to move infected patients out of hospital to care homes - my father was one of them and this was as recently as about 3 weeks ago.
That's appalling. I have been involved in some regulatory cases about care homes struggling with Covid. What is blindingly obvious is that the staff in those homes are of a much lower quality (and much more badly paid) than those in hospital, they don't have the training to implement infection control, they don't have the skills to use PPE properly, they really struggle with patients with limited understanding who want to move about and sit in the chairs in the lounge like they are used to and have very limited comprehension of social distancing.
No doubt I am seeing the worst and there is good practice in places but it seems more than a bit unrealistic to me to expect care homes to provide the same level of protection and control that you would see in hospital.
Unless things have significantly changed since I first Inspected and then advised Care Homes that's true. Another worry is that staff move between homes; one shift here, another there, largely to top up their poor wages.
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
Even if the theory floats, I still can't see the Tories avoiding being holed below the waterline, once Sunak runs out of cheques to write.
That is easy, and has betting implications. A snap election before 2024. The Tories' sweet spot is after Covid is beaten but before the economy fails. Boris retiring would add a new leader's bounce, and Boris himself would go down in history as an electoral colossus who delivered Brexit and conquered Covid.
Ironically the country might do better with Boris in place. We do not need another austerity hawk to close down what is left of the economy.
An interesting idea.
When do the new boundaries come in? The Tories would probably want those in place.
Just wait till the dust settles. This narcissist who adores dressing up with more costume changes than Danny La Rue will be out on his arse. Just the tiniest bit of reflection by the voters after the immediate dangers have passed and he'll be lucky if he isn't exiled let alone be permitted to remain PM
Are you talking about Johnson?
He'll face the electorate in 2024 and probably win a very tight race and do another 3/4 of a term is my guess at this point.
Are you talking about Johnson?
Yes. The very same. Happily I seem to have found someone who's ability to predict the political future is even worse than mine..
Well, I was certainly completely wrong about Trump in 2016.
Just wait till the dust settles. This narcissist who adores dressing up with more costume changes than Danny La Rue will be out on his arse. Just the tiniest bit of reflection by the voters after the immediate dangers have passed and he'll be lucky if he isn't exiled let alone be permitted to remain PM
Are you talking about Johnson?
He'll face the electorate in 2024 and probably win a very tight race and do another 3/4 of a term is my guess at this point.
Are you talking about Johnson?
Yes. The very same. Happily I seem to have found someone who's ability to predict the political future is even worse than mine..
As someone who forecast, and successfully bet, on the US election, Brexit and the 2015 General Election I am convinced Boris Johnson will win a crushing victory next time.
As the vaccine rollout continues apace and we leave the virus behind, whilst others lag, Boris Johnson's star will continue to rise. He's had a very good year so far. I note that he has stopped his War on Whitehall, which is a very significant moment that has slipped under the radar (cf. the Frost appointment issue). It's the Carrie effect and the departure of that nasty piece of work Dominic Cummings.
Our vaccine strategy is world beating. The British Press haven't even begun their acclamation yet.
Sir Keir Starmer is worthy and dull. He was the right person for the last election not the next one.
It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
I endorse joining any free trading association that is just that and does not have the baggage the EU has
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
With some exceptions we won't have the cultural ties. One of the reasons I object to leaving the EU is the ease of association and such things as the Erasmus project, Leaving that was just petty.
I do not agree
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
Has anyone seen anything about the Turing project apart from an announcement? I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
It's just as easy to get to Japan as it is to Germany. You get on an aeroplane.
I think the UK's high rate of vaccinations will improve our relative Covid performance. However if voters still blame Boris in 2024 for Covid deaths it should be remembered if Boris' Tories lost the 48 seats Blair's New Labour did in 2005 after Iraq then it would be a hung Parliament in 2024 with the Tories down to 317 seats .
This time as TSE states the DUP may prefer a softer Brexit for the whole UK under a PM Starmer than the current situation under Boris with a border in the Irish Sea, even if the UK-EU trade deal has reduced that. Starmer also proudly positions himself with the Union flag and has not openly flirted with Sinn Fein as Corbyn did so is more amenable to the DUP than Corbyn was.
In psychology, primacy and recency effects refer to people tending to remember the start and end of something more prominently. Ties in with the idea a good (or bad) finish could dominate the perspective of most people, looking back.
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It is of course good that cases in the US and UK are declining but I don’t see any special reason for celebrating.
The point is, most of us see no reason to rush the process.
Furthermore, once the US joins it will be the largest economic trading block in the world and I do not see why we need an exit strategy
I find the 1 in 8 know a close friend or family difficult to believe.
By my early (for a sunday) maths, with ≈ 52m adults in UK, each one of the 100K dead must have been a close family or friend to 65 people.
I guess it depends on individual's definition of close .
I do think many in Labour, particularly the more vocal lot online and away from any relevance, will assume so, and continue to assume that memes and slogans will win the Great Twitter Election of ̶2̶0̶1̶0̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶5̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶7̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶9̶ 2024.
It also seems reasonably likely that not all of the party leaders now will be the party leaders then.
But if you really want to precise, one in twenty adults know a family member who has died from Covid-19, that's still a worrying figure for the Tory party, when you factor in 66% of all voters and 42% of Tory voters think the there is more the government could reasonably have done to combat the disease.
He'll face the electorate in 2024 and probably win a very tight race and do another 3/4 of a term is my guess at this point.
I think I know some 25-30 people who have tested positive, but although some are extended family I would only describe two or three as being 'close;'.
I know a couple of people who caught the virus in hospital, and died, but they were very ill anyway. (eg 90+ and with a serious heart condition.)
Moreover, no one knows when their hour will come:
As fish are caught in a cruel net,
or birds are taken in a snare,
so people are trapped by evil times
that fall unexpectedly upon them.
Why would Boris have sacked him in March
*April 12.
In the second half some of the seeds planted in the first have blossomed. The early and massive investment in vaccine and vaccine production in the UK has paid off in a staggering way, after the early shambles our testing is on a massive scale, our roll out of vaccines is proceeding exceptionally, the perception of overall performance is improving albeit we are still screwing up quarantine.
Overall, the success with the vaccines edges me to a B+ or just maybe an A-. Could have been much better, could have been a lot worse.
for more hot takes, stay tuned!!
Yes, CTPP is big, and yes, it deepens some existing trade relationships. But it's also a blooming long way away, which makes it less useful. We don't know how those two factors interact, so we don't know whether this is a win, lose or draw for the UK. Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
So if this turns into a net loss for the UK, or requires us to swallow things that we otherwise wouldn't (on farming standards, say), what do we do next?
In doing so, they jabbed more people in that period than in all of Latvia, Lithuania and Ecuador combined. Which is rather sobering.
https://neu.org.uk/coronavirus-neu-national-recovery-plan-education
The TL:DR version is:
1) Schools are not safe, partly because the government is obsessed with declaring them safe rather then making them so;
2) Although they do (contra earlier indications) want teachers vaccinated before reopening, they point out that won’t stop infections among children if we just go straight back, so they are advising a rota system instead;
3) There will need to be additional support for those who are poorest or who have SEN to help them catch up.
Can’t really argue with much of that, although as I’ve said I don’t see the point of vaccinating healthy teachers ahead of vulnerable parents.
They then do go off on a left wing rant about restructuring society, but that doesn’t invalidate their opening.
The EU was asking too high a price and we now have the wider Turing replacement which offers a worldwide programme
They've still not worked out the right approach for it, giving it the weight and sensitivity it warrants but also knocking the many, many nonsenses on the head, promptly and efficiently.
There’s suddenly a lot of interest in Tory circles in the work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize-winning psychologist and behaviouralist. They are attracted to the professor’s thesis about how people recall difficult periods in their lives: they disproportionately remember, and therefore place the greatest weight, on how a harrowing episode came to an end. The contention is that even a deeply grim crisis can be thought of positively if the conclusion to it is an uplifting one.
Tory strategists are calculating that this is a trait of human nature that can be exploited to their party’s benefit. They reckon that a successful vaccination programme will induce voters to forget the government’s contribution to all the distress and death that came before it. The challenge for the Tories’ opponents will be stopping Boris Johnson from getting away with this.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/31/the-bad-taste-question-about-covid-that-everyone-at-westminster-is-asking?CMP=twt_gu&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=&__twitter_impression=true
Since Andrew Neil has thrown off the burdensome shackles of BBC non-partisanship rules, it seems he can make up any old right wing bollocks that takes his fancy.
Also kids will not be vaccinated - so are we waiting for herd immunity for adults?
If the EU hadn't wanted us to join their vaccination scheme on such punitive terms, and driven us from any prospect of joining, we might be in the same boat as them right now.
I was involved with student exchange projects at several times in my working life and, generally speaking, ease of travel and being reasonably nearby was an advantage
Even if the theory floats, I still can't see the Tories avoiding being holed below the waterline, once Sunak runs out of cheques to write.
Fortunately politicians come and go and there's so much we have in common with the rest of Europe.
https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1355661567598223361
Of course there is still some uncertainty about how the EU institutions will respond to requests for students to do a year there for students not on Erasmus. It really shouldn't be a problem because they had non EU students before but after the vaccine fiasco little can be taken for granted.
On your first point, I would say less ‘no need’ than ‘no benefit,’ although that may be a distinction without a difference.
Elder son's son is about (assuming results) to start at Uni, but I don't yet know what, if any, exchange etc opportunities there will be.
The Pasteur Institute - which stopped its unsuccessful Covid vaccine trial this week - benefited from this: "In an unprecedented move last March, President Emmanuel Macron increased France’s scientific research budget by 5 billion euros over the next 10 years and set up an emergency fund of 50 million euros to finance the search for a vaccine against COVID-19.
The EU has had the misfortune of backing nags that keep pulling up lame.
Ironically the country might do better with Boris in place. We do not need another austerity hawk to close down what is left of the economy.
Are you talking about Johnson?
Yes. The very same. Happily I seem to have found someone who's ability to predict the political future is even worse than mine..
No doubt I am seeing the worst and there is good practice in places but it seems more than a bit unrealistic to me to expect care homes to provide the same level of protection and control that you would see in hospital.
"Evil times" does sum up our predicament, not only the pestilence, but some of the dark characters tasked with navigating us through it.
Wide-ranging assumption based on limited experience, but supported by reading.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-rejected-contracts-and-a-hollywood-movie-how-uk-struck-deal-to-guarantee-vaccine-supply-12204044
* Only not really https://fullfact.org/europe/first-they-came-vacuum-cleaners-will-it-be-kettles-next/
OK then, two trains.
Or drive yourself.
When do the new boundaries come in? The Tories would probably want those in place.
Another worry is that staff move between homes; one shift here, another there, largely to top up their poor wages.
Well, I was certainly completely wrong about Trump in 2016.
As the vaccine rollout continues apace and we leave the virus behind, whilst others lag, Boris Johnson's star will continue to rise. He's had a very good year so far. I note that he has stopped his War on Whitehall, which is a very significant moment that has slipped under the radar (cf. the Frost appointment issue). It's the Carrie effect and the departure of that nasty piece of work Dominic Cummings.
Our vaccine strategy is world beating. The British Press haven't even begun their acclamation yet.
Sir Keir Starmer is worthy and dull. He was the right person for the last election not the next one.
This time as TSE states the DUP may prefer a softer Brexit for the whole UK under a PM Starmer than the current situation under Boris with a border in the Irish Sea, even if the UK-EU trade deal has reduced that. Starmer also proudly positions himself with the Union flag and has not openly flirted with Sinn Fein as Corbyn did so is more amenable to the DUP than Corbyn was.