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Tracking Covid – politicalbetting.com
Tracking Covid – politicalbetting.com
Last night Boris Johnson said the government "did everything we could" to protect people from coronavirus. 66% of Britons disagree, however, saying there is more the government could reasonably have done to combat the diseasehttps://t.co/3YvMHtV723 pic.twitter.com/265PUWmeyF
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That being so, the govt must, however, educate and inform. Early on that could have been better done.
A good header.
Most people know the government has messed up, particularly in the early days, but are willing to cut them some slack, partly because people know it is difficult and few would want to be in their shoes at such a torrid time, and partly because it’s still a time for all pulling together. And because no-one in opposition at Westminster has impressed (other than in Scotland, and even then only because being mature and sensible contrasts so well with the burden the Uk is carrying ).
With hindsight we will come to a settled view as to our performance, absolute and relative. Although the medical stats will figure, I actually think it will be the long term consequences on which politicians will be judged, as voters will be focused on the present and future rather than the events of 2020
That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.
I think that, here, the definition of "close" may be elastic for the identification with the experience.
Acquaintance? Work colleague?
I think there is strong precedent in polling "yes, that was me" adding up to far more than actually did it.
Off-topic: Why is JFK not called "shagger" - apparently he did far more shagging than Boris or any other UK politician (since Edward VIII?).
The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.
I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.
It all really depends on the definition of "close friend or family member".
I'd also note that very few 20 year olds will know someone, but a great many 70 year olds will.
From my perspective, I know two people who have been seriously (i.e. ICU) ill, and I know two people who have lost a parent.
(Although maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Lots of places have been shit.)
As you imply, 'close friend or family member' is terribly vague.
The EU's arguing over price and liability, when UK and others were arguing over delivery date and production facilities, was unforgivable, as they are now discovering.
Wait until the French border closures are the other way around, with a fully vaccinated UK partying through the summer like Australia did over Christmas.
We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.
Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
My take on this is that we're at half-time. You don't write a team off at this point. You don't declare it all over. The vaccine rollout by Britain is, without hyperbole, the most successful policy decision by any British Government since the Second World War. Whether that filters through into polling time will tell. If the scientists are right then we're going to exit this pandemic a lot faster than most of the world and certainly our EU neighbours. Vaccines stop death. Relative death rates may look very different a year from now.
The Churchill comparison with World War Two is very interesting but almost certainly a dodgy one. WWII was a time which brought people together in a bond which broke through social and class divides. The seeds for Attlee's 1945 landslide were sewn in solidarity. I don't think this pandemic has entailed the same social cohesion. Rather than celebrating life together at every available opportunity we're isolated, distanced and lockdowned. True, the internet creates new bonds but people have struggled with this pandemic particularly because it has broken our social bonds.
I think a better analogy is the Falklands War. At the outset the idea of sailing off 8000 miles and fighting for a lump of rock no-one had ever heard of was deeply unpopular. But the nation, whipped up by the press, got right into it and by the end our troops returned as heroes and Margaret Thatcher was Boadicea who could do no wrong.
Boris Johnson is having a very good 2021. True, Keir Starmer is no Michael Foot but neither is he Clem Attlee or Tony Blair. Personally I think if he wishes to stay on Boris will win a crushing victory at the next General Election.
Turns out getting cramp in your foot repeatedly doesn't pave the way to restful sleep.
Elect IDS as leader?
Trash your record in coalition?
Court battles between past and current leader?
Delegate vaccine procurment?
Some we know work. Some we will learn about I'm sure there are many other ways too.
Do people responsible for the pointless deaths of 150k people tend to win crushing election victories?
Yes, the vaccine roll-out is bloody brilliant. And could have been so on the back of a brilliantly-managed pandemic where our infection and death rates were not so stratospheric.
Below the fold, the ST has 32,000 new property millionaires outside London, next to its story that Keir Starmer demands help for people in unsellable flats.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-55875036
The process of vaccine procurement has been done away from the politics - after all, we're all obsessively into the detail, and how much discussion of vaccine procurement was there on here in 2020? Almost the only time it hit the news was the disclosure of Bingham's expenses.
The problem he, and we, have, is that the British system of government is horrendously centralised, and it isn't possible to keep politics away from very much. Look at the Cabinet, and no-one would argue that competence was the principal criterion in their appointment. Issues arising from work by both ministers and officials gravitate towards number 10, and once anything gets near the PM all the factors that make him such a bad PM - the dither, the indecision, the desire to please everyone, his responding to whoever sat on him last, his inability to stick to a script - come into play.
But, on your main point - I would expect that both the medical stats (death rate etc.) and the progress of the vaccination programme will be relatively small considerations when voters get to 2024. What will matter most by then will be the long term consequences and fallout from the pandemic, and what the Tories have done (and propose to do) to deal with them.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-s-vaccine-disaster-commission-president-ursula-von-der-leyen-seeking-to-duck-responsibility-a-1197547d-6219-4438-9d69-b76e64701802
Dad's cousin in ICU, another case where the person (50s, fit) still suffering after a year; one where the person ended in hospital after they had Covid, six confirmed mild cases, three more non confirmed (It was early when noone could get tested) mild cases.
Remember that the Parliament cannot vote confidence in any Commissioner individually, only the Commission as a whole.
Following a significant outbreak amongst the admin staff at my sister's school I downloaded a copy of the Covid risk assessment, which had recently originated from the Local Authority.
This repeatedly banged on about hand to hand contact and hand to surface transmission and gave no real indication that COVID-19 is a respiratory disease.
With hindsight, it appears that the Head's reliance upon this document led to the outbreak.
I don't demur much from your final paragraph. It is how demiocracies work after all.
The alleged scammer is named and pictured, but although the FCA has added him to its list of naughty boys unauthorised traders, Action Fraud (ie the police) say they are investigating but there is "no criminal inquiry".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55804205
I've no idea what went on but it seems unusual to splash photos around when there is no criminal inquiry, let alone a conviction.
I am thinking that is not a good sign.
It doesn't follow from a cronyist process that every single appointee will turn out to be useless.
A person familiar with the departures told CNN that Trump wanted the attorneys to argue there was mass election fraud and that the election was stolen from him rather than focus on the legality of convicting a president after he's left office. Trump was not receptive to the discussions about how they should proceed in that regard.
Because if there is an investigation into electoral fraud out of this, the results may not be to Mr Trump’s advantage considering all documented cases of it were committed by him.
Popcorn.
Change in priority groups
The move follows a change to one of the Government’s four priority categories earlier this year – with transport staff now falling under the ‘Health and Social Care’ category.
A spokesperson for the CCG said that as the cross-Solent operators carry patients and NHS staff to and from the Island their staff qualify for vaccinations.
Does a conviction require *two thirds of Senators* to vote in favour or *two thirds of a quorate meeting of the Senate* to vote in favour?
Except, as 45 GOP senators already voted that the trial itself is unconstitutional, why bother paying lawyers?
It has taken politicians and scientists months to work together in a way that delivers an acceptable outcome. Initially, the politicians were thinking the cost of implementing scientists' recommendations was just far too expensive on the economy. The scientists said "find the money - or have huge numbers of dead." So Rishi found the money. But then the politicians said "We can't carry on like this. Lockdown after lockdown. People aren't going to live with these restrictions. Find us the vaccine. Here - have as much money as it takes. Take who you need. But find a way." So the scientists found the vaccine and a way to manufacture it. A combined international effort for sure, but one where the UK was comfortably at the heart of - for a change. The scientists were backed up by a Government taking shrewd decisions on what to do next.
The route to this escape strategy has been somewhat saw-toothed. The monomania of having hospitals cleared ready for patients meant infecting care homes. In the first wave, sometimes that capacity was standing idle as the elderly died outside them. The refusal to close borders - or at least have a working, monitored quarantine system for those coming here - will be long debated. It has allowed a huge number of sources of infections and mutant strains to get a foothold in the population. We did not properly use our island status as part of the strategy to prevent transmission. We kow that issues have been debated and had split camps in Cabinet. Hopefully some now regret their positions as 100,000 dead has been breached - and that still isn't the end-point.
But for all the errors, there have been some seriously wise decisions taken. These decisions have got us to the point where - absent a new strain that undermines all the good work we have been doing on getting folks jabbed - we can already rest easier that many of those most at risk now have a vaccine fighting their corner, keeping them safe from the worst of the horrors of hospitalization. That is a huge step forward. As many as there might be people who have had a close friend or family member die, there are now far, far more who know of a friend, family member, loved one who is in a far better safer place than they were at Christmas.
As Churchill said, "If you're going through hell - keep going." Boris may not yet have delivered the sunlit uplands of Brexit*, but he is delivering the sunlit uplands of a post-Covid Britain. As I have said before, the Government's Covid scorecard will be marked "Good start, wretched middle, strong finish". They'd probably have taken that at the start of this thing.
*he has subcontracted that job to Liz Truss...
If Trump tries to argue his actions were justified on the basis of fraud, his behaviour in Georgia will be raised, as will the inconvenient fact that there was no other attempt at electoral fraud in Georgia. At which point he will have the option of admitting he did it, in which case he’s nailed on to be convicted of electoral fraud in Georgia, or denying it, in which case he’s a slam dunk to be convicted of perjury.
I do hope his actions in Texas in trying to get hundreds of thousands of perfectly legal ballots disqualified for having Democratic marks on them are raised as well.
If you want a different colour, how about ‘tan haired?’
https://www.washingtonian.com/2019/10/10/the-impeachment-loophole-no-ones-talking-about/
So the other option for disgruntled Republicans - stay away altogether. ‘Ooops, sorry, my car had a flat on the way to the Capitol and I couldn’t flag a cab in time.’
The analogy still works fine...
On Para 4; to some extent it will depend whether or not we are still coping with the day to day effects of the pandemic.
Part of the (political) problem is that some areas are so far ahead of others that it becomes difficult to manage prioritisation on a national level.
https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20170111/fauci-no-doubt-trump-will-face-surprise-infectious-disease-outbreak
https://twitter.com/adamjohnritchie/status/1355136430402580482?s=20
.....
https://twitter.com/adamjohnritchie/status/1355137660969476098?s=20
However, they went on to say that there are 330 million Americans and of course with the vaccines generally requiring two doses, the US will be grappling with this for the rest of this year and into next
It was based on a YouGov poll.
The figures were produced by the statisticians who work for YouGov, some of them have even worked for the ONS, which is pretty good.
It was also backed up by other evidence, such as 'The average number of Facebook friends for an adult is now 338. The median number of Facebook friends is 200.'
We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
“It wasn’t like a standard scientific meeting, it was a huge debate how we could do this,” recalled Dr. Peacock. By the end of the day they had a blueprint and submitted it to England’s chief scientific officer on March 18. It was accepted and 20 million pounds, equivalent to $27 million, of government funding was awarded on April 1 to set up COG-UK.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-u-k-became-world-leader-in-sequencing-the-coronavirusgenome-11612011601?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Jb9AIqUAxX