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Tracking Covid – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited January 2021 in General
Tracking Covid – politicalbetting.com

Last night Boris Johnson said the government "did everything we could" to protect people from coronavirus. 66% of Britons disagree, however, saying there is more the government could reasonably have done to combat the diseasehttps://t.co/3YvMHtV723 pic.twitter.com/265PUWmeyF

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Comments

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    The responsibility is shared: we are sometimes an awkward and bloody minded people.
    That being so, the govt must, however, educate and inform. Early on that could have been better done.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Second rate, like the EU vaccine program.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited January 2021
    Third

    A good header.

    Most people know the government has messed up, particularly in the early days, but are willing to cut them some slack, partly because people know it is difficult and few would want to be in their shoes at such a torrid time, and partly because it’s still a time for all pulling together. And because no-one in opposition at Westminster has impressed (other than in Scotland, and even then only because being mature and sensible contrasts so well with the burden the Uk is carrying ).

    With hindsight we will come to a settled view as to our performance, absolute and relative. Although the medical stats will figure, I actually think it will be the long term consequences on which politicians will be judged, as voters will be focused on the present and future rather than the events of 2020
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,234
    edited January 2021
    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    Thanks for the nice snort header.

    I think that, here, the definition of "close" may be elastic for the identification with the experience.

    Acquaintance? Work colleague?

    I think there is strong precedent in polling "yes, that was me" adding up to far more than actually did it.

    Off-topic: Why is JFK not called "shagger" - apparently he did far more shagging than Boris or any other UK politician (since Edward VIII?).
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited January 2021
    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207
    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    If you say you have 50 close friends and family, and then you multiply that by 8, you get to one in 400 people dying from Covid.

    It all really depends on the definition of "close friend or family member".

    I'd also note that very few 20 year olds will know someone, but a great many 70 year olds will.

    From my perspective, I know two people who have been seriously (i.e. ICU) ill, and I know two people who have lost a parent.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207
    Sandpit said:

    Second rate, like the EU vaccine program.

    Only second?

    (Although maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Lots of places have been shit.)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    If you say you have 50 close friends and family, and then you multiply that by 8, you get to one in 400 people dying from Covid.

    It all really depends on the definition of "close friend or family member".

    I'd also note that very few 20 year olds will know someone, but a great many 70 year olds will.

    From my perspective, I know two people who have been seriously (i.e. ICU) ill, and I know two people who have lost a parent.

    I think social media plays a part here too. I know a friend whose wife died from it. We're facebook friends. If pushed by pollsters I'd probably call them close but I haven't physically met them for some years.

    As you imply, 'close friend or family member' is terribly vague.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    If you say you have 50 close friends and family, and then you multiply that by 8, you get to one in 400 people dying from Covid.

    It all really depends on the definition of "close friend or family member".

    I'd also note that very few 20 year olds will know someone, but a great many 70 year olds will.

    From my perspective, I know two people who have been seriously (i.e. ICU) ill, and I know two people who have lost a parent.

    I think social media plays a part here too. I know a friend whose wife died from it. We're facebook friends. If pushed by pollsters I'd probably call them close but I haven't physically met them for some years.

    As you imply, 'close friend or family member' is terribly vague.
    Agree 100%.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    If you say you have 50 close friends and family, and then you multiply that by 8, you get to one in 400 people dying from Covid.

    It all really depends on the definition of "close friend or family member".

    I'd also note that very few 20 year olds will know someone, but a great many 70 year olds will.

    From my perspective, I know two people who have been seriously (i.e. ICU) ill, and I know two people who have lost a parent.

    50?! I’d say I have maybe 15 that I can put in this category.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited January 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second rate, like the EU vaccine program.

    Only second?

    (Although maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Lots of places have been shit.)
    If there had been three comments already on this thread when I logged in, then it would have been fourth rate! :D

    The EU's arguing over price and liability, when UK and others were arguing over delivery date and production facilities, was unforgivable, as they are now discovering.

    Wait until the French border closures are the other way around, with a fully vaccinated UK partying through the summer like Australia did over Christmas.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,456
    edited January 2021

    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    Good morning everybody. Let's hope it's a better day, weatherise here, anyway, than yesterday. Rained all day, quite hard some the time, but at least it didn't snow.

    We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited January 2021
    Mid term polling rarely looks good for governing parties and in many ways it has been a surprise how well the tories have held up. Still to be neck and neck with Labour after all that's happened should be deeply concerning ... for Labour. The Guardian carried a piece this week about that very thing: that Labour really are not cutting through: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/27/starmer-labour-failing-to-win-back-tory-voters-england-may-polls

    My take on this is that we're at half-time. You don't write a team off at this point. You don't declare it all over. The vaccine rollout by Britain is, without hyperbole, the most successful policy decision by any British Government since the Second World War. Whether that filters through into polling time will tell. If the scientists are right then we're going to exit this pandemic a lot faster than most of the world and certainly our EU neighbours. Vaccines stop death. Relative death rates may look very different a year from now.

    The Churchill comparison with World War Two is very interesting but almost certainly a dodgy one. WWII was a time which brought people together in a bond which broke through social and class divides. The seeds for Attlee's 1945 landslide were sewn in solidarity. I don't think this pandemic has entailed the same social cohesion. Rather than celebrating life together at every available opportunity we're isolated, distanced and lockdowned. True, the internet creates new bonds but people have struggled with this pandemic particularly because it has broken our social bonds.

    I think a better analogy is the Falklands War. At the outset the idea of sailing off 8000 miles and fighting for a lump of rock no-one had ever heard of was deeply unpopular. But the nation, whipped up by the press, got right into it and by the end our troops returned as heroes and Margaret Thatcher was Boadicea who could do no wrong.

    Boris Johnson is having a very good 2021. True, Keir Starmer is no Michael Foot but neither is he Clem Attlee or Tony Blair. Personally I think if he wishes to stay on Boris will win a crushing victory at the next General Election.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    That might be my lengthiest ever post on pb :wink:
  • That might be my lengthiest ever post on pb :wink:

    How to kill a party
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    That might be my lengthiest ever post on pb :wink:

    How to kill a party
    :smiley:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,804
    Good morning, everyone.

    Turns out getting cramp in your foot repeatedly doesn't pave the way to restful sleep.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    That might be my lengthiest ever post on pb :wink:

    How to kill a party
    Elect Mr Corbyn as leader?
    Elect IDS as leader?
    Trash your record in coalition?
    Court battles between past and current leader?
    Delegate vaccine procurment?
    Some we know work. Some we will learn about I'm sure there are many other ways too.
  • tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    If you say you have 50 close friends and family, and then you multiply that by 8, you get to one in 400 people dying from Covid.

    It all really depends on the definition of "close friend or family member".

    I'd also note that very few 20 year olds will know someone, but a great many 70 year olds will.

    From my perspective, I know two people who have been seriously (i.e. ICU) ill, and I know two people who have lost a parent.

    50?! I’d say I have maybe 15 that I can put in this category.
    Look at the question of knowing people who died from the other end, though. How many people attended the average pre-lockdown funeral? It might not have been 80 but more than 15, surely? Then remember our perennial complaint that mainly older people answer opinion polls, and that older people are more likely to die.
  • "Personally I think if he wishes to stay on Boris will win a crushing victory at the next General Election."

    Do people responsible for the pointless deaths of 150k people tend to win crushing election victories?

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out is bloody brilliant. And could have been so on the back of a brilliantly-managed pandemic where our infection and death rates were not so stratospheric.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Second rate, like the EU vaccine program.

    Only second?

    (Although maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Lots of places have been shit.)
    Heartening to see that membership of the EU has been so effective at removing petty prejudice and vaccine nationalism - notably in French and German political leaders over the past week.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    Good morning everybody. Let's hope it's a better day, weatherise here, anyway, than yesterday. Rained all day, quite hard some the time, but at least it didn't snow.

    We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
    You cannot choose where to allocate your blame and praise to align with your political prejudices. Just makes you look petty.
  • An odd Sunday Times front page. It leads on betting logos being banned from sports kit, next to a picture of Ed Sheeran for paying £28 million in income tax. Very commendable but dwarfed by the Bet365 owners who topped the ST list by paying 20 times as much.

    Below the fold, the ST has 32,000 new property millionaires outside London, next to its story that Keir Starmer demands help for people in unsellable flats.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-55875036
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,234
    edited January 2021
    Is it a useful characterisation to suggest that the EU perhaps needs to move on from its own version of the Manifest Destiny dogma?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    An odd Sunday Times front page. It leads on betting logos being banned from sports kit, next to a picture of Ed Sheeran for paying £28 million in income tax. Very commendable but dwarfed by the Bet365 owners who topped the ST list by paying 20 times as much.

    Below the fold, the ST has 32,000 new property millionaires outside London, next to its story that Keir Starmer demands help for people in unsellable flats.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-55875036

    Well, it's been a slow news week....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited January 2021
    felix said:

    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    Good morning everybody. Let's hope it's a better day, weatherise here, anyway, than yesterday. Rained all day, quite hard some the time, but at least it didn't snow.

    We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
    You cannot choose where to allocate your blame and praise to align with your political prejudices. Just makes you look petty.
    But there's a fair point beneath. Boris has done well in the past where he has been able to appoint a competent person and let them get on with the job away from the politics. Indeed at mayoral level Boris was often able to keep politics off his officials' backs by deflecting it in the assembly with his blather and bluster.

    The process of vaccine procurement has been done away from the politics - after all, we're all obsessively into the detail, and how much discussion of vaccine procurement was there on here in 2020? Almost the only time it hit the news was the disclosure of Bingham's expenses.

    The problem he, and we, have, is that the British system of government is horrendously centralised, and it isn't possible to keep politics away from very much. Look at the Cabinet, and no-one would argue that competence was the principal criterion in their appointment. Issues arising from work by both ministers and officials gravitate towards number 10, and once anything gets near the PM all the factors that make him such a bad PM - the dither, the indecision, the desire to please everyone, his responding to whoever sat on him last, his inability to stick to a script - come into play.

    But, on your main point - I would expect that both the medical stats (death rate etc.) and the progress of the vaccination programme will be relatively small considerations when voters get to 2024. What will matter most by then will be the long term consequences and fallout from the pandemic, and what the Tories have done (and propose to do) to deal with them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    The only person I know (Facebook friend) so one of ~500, 37, no pre existing conditions dead.
    Dad's cousin in ICU, another case where the person (50s, fit) still suffering after a year; one where the person ended in hospital after they had Covid, six confirmed mild cases, three more non confirmed (It was early when noone could get tested) mild cases.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    felix said:

    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    Good morning everybody. Let's hope it's a better day, weatherise here, anyway, than yesterday. Rained all day, quite hard some the time, but at least it didn't snow.

    We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
    You cannot choose where to allocate your blame and praise to align with your political prejudices. Just makes you look petty.
    The general public, as opposed to political obsessives, are prepared to give the government a huge amount of leeway in dealing with what they see as a once-in-a-lifetime natural disaster.
  • tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    People have friends and family outside the UK!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    ydoethur said:
    Assuming the EU vaccine program doesn't suddenly start going gangbusters and project the EU nations to the top of the league table, there has to be a reasonable chance of the EU Commission facing a vote of confidence in late spring.

    Remember that the Parliament cannot vote confidence in any Commissioner individually, only the Commission as a whole.
  • An odd Sunday Times front page. It leads on betting logos being banned from sports kit, next to a picture of Ed Sheeran for paying £28 million in income tax. Very commendable but dwarfed by the Bet365 owners who topped the ST list by paying 20 times as much.

    Below the fold, the ST has 32,000 new property millionaires outside London, next to its story that Keir Starmer demands help for people in unsellable flats.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-55875036

    Well, it's been a slow news week....
    It was the two pairs of contrasting stories that caught the eye.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    edited January 2021
    Toms said:

    The responsibility is shared: we are sometimes an awkward and bloody minded people.
    That being so, the govt must, however, educate and inform. Early on that could have been better done.

    Much was made of hand washing, which seemed to get through, but then this became the prevailing message.

    Following a significant outbreak amongst the admin staff at my sister's school I downloaded a copy of the Covid risk assessment, which had recently originated from the Local Authority.

    This repeatedly banged on about hand to hand contact and hand to surface transmission and gave no real indication that COVID-19 is a respiratory disease.

    With hindsight, it appears that the Head's reliance upon this document led to the outbreak.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    Good morning everybody. Let's hope it's a better day, weatherise here, anyway, than yesterday. Rained all day, quite hard some the time, but at least it didn't snow.

    We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
    Pretty sure that vaccine procurement was did face accusations of "crony appointments" though?

  • An odd Sunday Times front page. It leads on betting logos being banned from sports kit, next to a picture of Ed Sheeran for paying £28 million in income tax. Very commendable but dwarfed by the Bet365 owners who topped the ST list by paying 20 times as much.

    Below the fold, the ST has 32,000 new property millionaires outside London, next to its story that Keir Starmer demands help for people in unsellable flats.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-55875036

    It is a disgrace we have stalled on implementing the Grenfell recommendations, and very poor that we cant process ews1's at an appropriate speed. It is not as if there is a shortage of people available to do the tasks, we are just not willing to spend the money to do it, or in the former case decide who should spend it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Yesterday a PB'er said that his wife had been added to the priority list for vaccination as a psychotherapist. This morning I see in the local news that ferry workers have also been added. Apparently this applies to transport workers generally. It looks to me as if the government is already on the slippery slope of accepting a new criterion of people in jobs that mix with lots of people, in place of priority mostly by age?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    "Personally I think if he wishes to stay on Boris will win a crushing victory at the next General Election."

    Do people responsible for the pointless deaths of 150k people tend to win crushing election victories?

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out is bloody brilliant. And could have been so on the back of a brilliantly-managed pandemic where our infection and death rates were not so stratospheric.

    Worked for Lloyd George after Passchendaele.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    Good morning everybody. Let's hope it's a better day, weatherise here, anyway, than yesterday. Rained all day, quite hard some the time, but at least it didn't snow.

    We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
    You cannot choose where to allocate your blame and praise to align with your political prejudices. Just makes you look petty.
    But there's a fair point beneath. Boris has done well in the past where he has been able to appoint a competent person and let them get on with the job away from the politics. Indeed at mayoral level Boris was often able to keep politics off his officials' backs by deflecting it in the assembly with his blather and bluster.

    The process of vaccine procurement has been done away from the politics - after all, we're all obsessively into the detail, and how much discussion of vaccine procurement was there on here in 2020? Almost the only time it hit the news was the disclosure of Bingham's expenses.

    The problem he, and we, have, is that the British system of government is horrendously centralised, and it isn't possible to keep politics away from very much. Look at the Cabinet, and no-one would argue that competence was the principal criterion in their appointment. Issues arising from work by both ministers and officials gravitate towards number 10, and once anything gets near the PM all the factors that make him such a bad PM - the dither, the indecision, the desire to please everyone, his responding to whoever sat on him last, his inability to stick to a script - come into play.

    But, on your main point - I would expect that both the medical stats (death rate etc.) and the progress of the vaccination programme will be relatively small considerations when voters get to 2024. What will matter most by then will be the long term consequences and fallout from the pandemic, and what the Tories have done (and propose to do) to deal with them.
    The vast majority of the pandemic response - both good and bad has been directed by the scientists and medics. As it should have been. Sadly many of the results have been middling. WRT 'western democracies' that has been pretty similar and pretty universal. The great majority of the different outcomes relate to a combination of factors which include: national customs, population distribution/size/density/age profile/general health/etc, health systems [including finance and robustness], government response at various levels, etc, etc. It is hugely complex and very difficult therefore to quantify let alone allocate 'blame'. I would add that after a brief and responsible start the media performance has been in almost every eay possible utterly lamentable.

    I don't demur much from your final paragraph. It is how demiocracies work after all.
  • OT any libel lawyers around? The BBC has a story of an accountant (who you'd have thought should have known better) being scammed out of £17,000 on Instagram.

    The alleged scammer is named and pictured, but although the FCA has added him to its list of naughty boys unauthorised traders, Action Fraud (ie the police) say they are investigating but there is "no criminal inquiry".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55804205

    I've no idea what went on but it seems unusual to splash photos around when there is no criminal inquiry, let alone a conviction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:
    The description of her career path is interesting - the portrayal of someone who arrives in each senior role championing their ambitious but ill defined plans to put right all the mistakes of their predecessor, but who has moved on before any of the detailed work gets done let alone the consequences become clear, made me remember a fair few people I have worked with.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    And where might we be if BoZo had sacked him in March..?
  • OT any libel lawyers around? The BBC has a story of an accountant (who you'd have thought should have known better) being scammed out of £17,000 on Instagram.

    The alleged scammer is named and pictured, but although the FCA has added him to its list of naughty boys unauthorised traders, Action Fraud (ie the police) say they are investigating but there is "no criminal inquiry".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55804205

    I've no idea what went on but it seems unusual to splash photos around when there is no criminal inquiry, let alone a conviction.

    Havent BBC Watchdog done similar for 35 years, with good justification?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    MattW said:



    Off-topic: Why is JFK not called "shagger" - apparently he did far more shagging than Boris or any other UK politician (since Edward VIII?).

    Because there was much more, personally and politically, to JFK than his predilection for sticking his cock into anything with a hole and a heartbeat. With Johnson there really isn't any thing else.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    alex_ said:

    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    Good morning everybody. Let's hope it's a better day, weatherise here, anyway, than yesterday. Rained all day, quite hard some the time, but at least it didn't snow.

    We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
    Pretty sure that vaccine procurement was did face accusations of "crony appointments" though?

    She is married to a Tory MP.

    It doesn't follow from a cronyist process that every single appointee will turn out to be useless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    And where might we be if BoZo had sacked him in March..?
    Barnard Castle?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.
    According to CNN it's that Trump is still obsessed with the election and doesn't appreciate, or will not address, the charges against him:

    A person familiar with the departures told CNN that Trump wanted the attorneys to argue there was mass election fraud and that the election was stolen from him rather than focus on the legality of convicting a president after he's left office. Trump was not receptive to the discussions about how they should proceed in that regard.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IanB2 said:

    Yesterday a PB'er said that his wife had been added to the priority list for vaccination as a psychotherapist. This morning I see in the local news that ferry workers have also been added. Apparently this applies to transport workers generally. It looks to me as if the government is already on the slippery slope of accepting a new criterion of people in jobs that mix with lots of people, in place of priority mostly by age?

    Is it in priority? Or is it just an issue that some distribution sites are so far ahead that they need authorisation to extend their lists without just making it a general free for all?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.
    According to CNN it's that Trump is still obsessed with the election and doesn't appreciate, or will not address, the charges against him:

    A person familiar with the departures told CNN that Trump wanted the attorneys to argue there was mass election fraud and that the election was stolen from him rather than focus on the legality of convicting a president after he's left office. Trump was not receptive to the discussions about how they should proceed in that regard.
    Is he really going to be stupid enough to try that?

    Because if there is an investigation into electoral fraud out of this, the results may not be to Mr Trump’s advantage considering all documented cases of it were committed by him.
  • IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.
    According to CNN it's that Trump is still obsessed with the election and doesn't appreciate, or will not address, the charges against him:

    A person familiar with the departures told CNN that Trump wanted the attorneys to argue there was mass election fraud and that the election was stolen from him rather than focus on the legality of convicting a president after he's left office. Trump was not receptive to the discussions about how they should proceed in that regard.
    Because he knows he wont be convicted and wants to run again, its the start of his 2024 campaign in his mind, two weeks of wall to wall free campaign publicity.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    He's going to end up defending himself. He's probably got some vision what he can do with the platform. And in so doing find the one way that will make it genuinely problematic for the Republican senators to vote to acquit.

    Popcorn.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    alex_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yesterday a PB'er said that his wife had been added to the priority list for vaccination as a psychotherapist. This morning I see in the local news that ferry workers have also been added. Apparently this applies to transport workers generally. It looks to me as if the government is already on the slippery slope of accepting a new criterion of people in jobs that mix with lots of people, in place of priority mostly by age?

    Is it in priority? Or is it just an issue that some distribution sites are so far ahead that they need authorisation to extend their lists without just making it a general free for all?
    Here's the quote from the local news:

    Change in priority groups

    The move follows a change to one of the Government’s four priority categories earlier this year – with transport staff now falling under the ‘Health and Social Care’ category.

    A spokesperson for the CCG said that as the cross-Solent operators carry patients and NHS staff to and from the Island their staff qualify for vaccinations.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    He's going to end up defending himself. He's probably got some vision what he can do with the platform. And in so doing find the one way that will make it genuinely problematic for the Republican senators to vote to acquit.

    Popcorn.
    Question.

    Does a conviction require *two thirds of Senators* to vote in favour or *two thirds of a quorate meeting of the Senate* to vote in favour?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    ydoethur said:

    Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.

    Indeed.

    Except, as 45 GOP senators already voted that the trial itself is unconstitutional, why bother paying lawyers?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    OT any libel lawyers around? The BBC has a story of an accountant (who you'd have thought should have known better) being scammed out of £17,000 on Instagram.

    The alleged scammer is named and pictured, but although the FCA has added him to its list of naughty boys unauthorised traders, Action Fraud (ie the police) say they are investigating but there is "no criminal inquiry".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55804205

    I've no idea what went on but it seems unusual to splash photos around when there is no criminal inquiry, let alone a conviction.

    I think the FCA putting him on a list of unauthorised traders means the BBC lawyers consider that they stand a very good chance of a truth or fair comment defence. If the BBC raise a defence of justification/truth the burden then shifts to the alleged scammer to show, on the balance of probabilities, that the defamatory statements in the article are not true. Given his status with the FCA would you be confident that would work? Remember that libel is a civil action working on the balance of probabilities but the police have to work with “beyond reasonable doubt”.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yesterday a PB'er said that his wife had been added to the priority list for vaccination as a psychotherapist. This morning I see in the local news that ferry workers have also been added. Apparently this applies to transport workers generally. It looks to me as if the government is already on the slippery slope of accepting a new criterion of people in jobs that mix with lots of people, in place of priority mostly by age?

    Is it in priority? Or is it just an issue that some distribution sites are so far ahead that they need authorisation to extend their lists without just making it a general free for all?
    Here's the quote from the local news:

    Change in priority groups

    The move follows a change to one of the Government’s four priority categories earlier this year – with transport staff now falling under the ‘Health and Social Care’ category.

    A spokesperson for the CCG said that as the cross-Solent operators carry patients and NHS staff to and from the Island their staff qualify for vaccinations.
    Yes, what i meant to get at was the question about whether it was really a "slippery slope". Or is it that the Govt are so confident now about an abundance of vaccine supplies that they can't keep up? But obviously they need to retain some restrictions within the process (because they haven't got enough for a free for all).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.

    Indeed.

    Except, as 45 GOP senators already voted that the trial itself is unconstitutional, why bother paying lawyers?
    I think, if he goes down that route, this may be a case where the outcome matters less than the evidence presented.

    If Trump tries to argue his actions were justified on the basis of fraud, his behaviour in Georgia will be raised, as will the inconvenient fact that there was no other attempt at electoral fraud in Georgia. At which point he will have the option of admitting he did it, in which case he’s nailed on to be convicted of electoral fraud in Georgia, or denying it, in which case he’s a slam dunk to be convicted of perjury.

    I do hope his actions in Texas in trying to get hundreds of thousands of perfectly legal ballots disqualified for having Democratic marks on them are raised as well.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.
    Maybe less of that kind of analogy? It would be good to get some more gender diversity on here and that sort of thing doesn’t help. There are a lot of equally colourful analogies out there. Admittedly I can’t think of one immediately but still...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    Isn’t it? It sounds like a very good sign to me. It suggests they think the Senate’s going to screw the orange haired motherf****** like a whore paid by the orgasm.
    Maybe less of that kind of analogy? It would be good to get some more gender diversity on here and that sort of thing doesn’t help. There are a lot of equally colourful analogies out there. Admittedly I can’t think of one immediately but still...
    Apologies.

    If you want a different colour, how about ‘tan haired?’
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    alex_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yesterday a PB'er said that his wife had been added to the priority list for vaccination as a psychotherapist. This morning I see in the local news that ferry workers have also been added. Apparently this applies to transport workers generally. It looks to me as if the government is already on the slippery slope of accepting a new criterion of people in jobs that mix with lots of people, in place of priority mostly by age?

    Is it in priority? Or is it just an issue that some distribution sites are so far ahead that they need authorisation to extend their lists without just making it a general free for all?
    Why not head to group 5 in that case ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    He's going to end up defending himself. He's probably got some vision what he can do with the platform. And in so doing find the one way that will make it genuinely problematic for the Republican senators to vote to acquit.

    Popcorn.
    Question.

    Does a conviction require *two thirds of Senators* to vote in favour or *two thirds of a quorate meeting of the Senate* to vote in favour?
    And an answer:

    https://www.washingtonian.com/2019/10/10/the-impeachment-loophole-no-ones-talking-about/

    So the other option for disgruntled Republicans - stay away altogether. ‘Ooops, sorry, my car had a flat on the way to the Capitol and I couldn’t flag a cab in time.’
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    edited January 2021
    Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,816
    edited January 2021
    Sounds a good (if geographically illogical) idea for the UK to join the Asia-Pacific trade act . Maybe then move on and errmm (thinking leftfield here) join a free trade area closer to home like errm the EU?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Incidentally, talking of analogies, TSE missed a trick in the thread header. He could have said ‘a boring London lawyer with a radical agenda seen as a caretaker who took over from a dimwitted dogmatist who ended up an apologist for Nazism.’

    The analogy still works fine...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,456
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    It will take time for vaccine success to filter through into polling. Around 12 months I reckon. But it will. He also did the right thing about the 100,000 deaths. He said sorry, even though it's not all his fault, and looked and sounded contrite.

    The Sunday papers, even the Observer, are supportive. And now Tony Blair has criticised the EU. What with that and the application to join the CPTTP, there's no doubt that the PM is on a roll.

    I wonder if it was the departure of Dominic Cummings that was the making of Boris Johnson.

    Good morning everybody. Let's hope it's a better day, weatherise here, anyway, than yesterday. Rained all day, quite hard some the time, but at least it didn't snow.

    We haven't lost a family member, or a 'close' friend to Covid-19, but we do know quite a few people who have had it, and we do know of people who have died. They tended to have 'something else' as well, though; went into hospital with a heart problem and Covid developed there, for example.

    Yes, the vaccine roll-out has been a success. And why? Because the Govt. stood back and let the professionals do it, without bringing their 'friends' in. And, AIUI, the vaccine manufacturers got together right at the start, without being prompted, and developed the vaccines.
    You cannot choose where to allocate your blame and praise to align with your political prejudices. Just makes you look petty.
    But there's a fair point beneath. Boris has done well in the past where he has been able to appoint a competent person and let them get on with the job away from the politics. Indeed at mayoral level Boris was often able to keep politics off his officials' backs by deflecting it in the assembly with his blather and bluster.

    The process of vaccine procurement has been done away from the politics - after all, we're all obsessively into the detail, and how much discussion of vaccine procurement was there on here in 2020? Almost the only time it hit the news was the disclosure of Bingham's expenses.

    The problem he, and we, have, is that the British system of government is horrendously centralised, and it isn't possible to keep politics away from very much. Look at the Cabinet, and no-one would argue that competence was the principal criterion in their appointment. Issues arising from work by both ministers and officials gravitate towards number 10, and once anything gets near the PM all the factors that make him such a bad PM - the dither, the indecision, the desire to please everyone, his responding to whoever sat on him last, his inability to stick to a script - come into play.

    But, on your main point - I would expect that both the medical stats (death rate etc.) and the progress of the vaccination programme will be relatively small considerations when voters get to 2024. What will matter most by then will be the long term consequences and fallout from the pandemic, and what the Tories have done (and propose to do) to deal with them.
    Para's 1,2 and 3. Quite.

    On Para 4; to some extent it will depend whether or not we are still coping with the day to day effects of the pandemic.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    He's going to end up defending himself. He's probably got some vision what he can do with the platform. And in so doing find the one way that will make it genuinely problematic for the Republican senators to vote to acquit.

    Popcorn.
    Question.

    Does a conviction require *two thirds of Senators* to vote in favour or *two thirds of a quorate meeting of the Senate* to vote in favour?
    2/3 of a quorum. I don't think it's unlikely that a number of Republicans might decide that their best option is to absent themselves - and then leave it hanging whether Trump wants to challenge the constitutionality in the courts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,804
    Mr. Away, people in the UK generally liked the trade and economics of the EU. It was the politics and ever closer integration that they disliked.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Overnight all of Trump's legal team for the senate trial quit.

    I am thinking that is not a good sign.

    He's going to end up defending himself. He's probably got some vision what he can do with the platform. And in so doing find the one way that will make it genuinely problematic for the Republican senators to vote to acquit.

    Popcorn.
    Question.

    Does a conviction require *two thirds of Senators* to vote in favour or *two thirds of a quorate meeting of the Senate* to vote in favour?
    And an answer:

    https://www.washingtonian.com/2019/10/10/the-impeachment-loophole-no-ones-talking-about/

    So the other option for disgruntled Republicans - stay away altogether. ‘Ooops, sorry, my car had a flat on the way to the Capitol and I couldn’t flag a cab in time.’
    The time to bet is when we read about Senators having their wisdom teeth extracted.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    alex_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yesterday a PB'er said that his wife had been added to the priority list for vaccination as a psychotherapist. This morning I see in the local news that ferry workers have also been added. Apparently this applies to transport workers generally. It looks to me as if the government is already on the slippery slope of accepting a new criterion of people in jobs that mix with lots of people, in place of priority mostly by age?

    Is it in priority? Or is it just an issue that some distribution sites are so far ahead that they need authorisation to extend their lists without just making it a general free for all?
    Why not head to group 5 in that case ?
    Perhaps because group 5 is too big, and demand still needs managing.

    Part of the (political) problem is that some areas are so far ahead of others that it becomes difficult to manage prioritisation on a national level.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Just Googled “Fauci Predictions” (the wife is really keen to move back to the States and we’re looking at timelines) and I found this article from 4 freaking years ago...

    https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20170111/fauci-no-doubt-trump-will-face-surprise-infectious-disease-outbreak
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    Data + Journalist = Bollocks.
  • Sounds a good (if geographically illogical) idea for the UK to join the Asia-Pacific trade act . Maybe then move on and errmm (thinking leftfield here) join a free trade area closer to home like errm the EU?

    It is likely the US will join the Asia-Pacific alliance so maybe the EU should look at joining as well as I just do not see the UK rejoining the EU as our trade will have diversied across the globe
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    our trade will have diversied across the globe

    It really won't
  • Scott_xP said:

    our trade will have diversied across the globe

    It really won't
    It really will
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    People know how much I love my straws to cling to, but there is evidence that global cases have been on their most sustained downward trend since the pandemic started for the last couple of weeks now - largely driven by ourselves and the US. If (big if) that is right then it should be showing up in the mortality rates soon as well. Fingers crossed.


  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Scott_xP said:

    our trade will have diversied across the globe

    It really won't
    It really will
    Do you mean opening up the dogmeat industry with Vietnam?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    DougSeal said:

    People know how much I love my straws to cling to, but there is evidence that global cases have been on their most sustained downward trend since the pandemic started for the last couple of weeks now - largely driven by ourselves and the US. If (big if) that is right then it should be showing up in the mortality rates soon as well. Fingers crossed.


    Does that not however leave aside the possibility that there are a great many cases out there in countries with less efficient testing regimes that are not being identified?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Scott_xP said:

    our trade will have diversied across the globe

    It really won't
    It really will
    Do you mean opening up the dogmeat industry with Vietnam?
    There’s no need to be catty.
  • It was interesting that a report on 5 live this morning referred to Joe Biden's pledge to vaccinate 100 million in his first days and that the US is doing around 1 million a day.

    However, they went on to say that there are 330 million Americans and of course with the vaccines generally requiring two doses, the US will be grappling with this for the rest of this year and into next
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited January 2021
    DougSeal said:

    People know how much I love my straws to cling to, but there is evidence that global cases have been on their most sustained downward trend since the pandemic started for the last couple of weeks now - largely driven by ourselves and the US. If (big if) that is right then it should be showing up in the mortality rates soon as well. Fingers crossed.


    I think these sort of global trend maps can be very misleading because they get massively skewed by large countries. Realistically, we've got to assume that globally we're still in the foothills.
  • Scott_xP said:

    our trade will have diversied across the globe

    It really won't
    It really will
    Do you mean opening up the dogmeat industry with Vietnam?
    Do not be ridiculous
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    felix said:

    Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.

    In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,662
    edited January 2021

    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    Data + Journalist = Bollocks.
    How about doing some research before spouting your usual bollocks.

    It was based on a YouGov poll.

    The figures were produced by the statisticians who work for YouGov, some of them have even worked for the ONS, which is pretty good.

    It was also backed up by other evidence, such as 'The average number of Facebook friends for an adult is now 338. The median number of Facebook friends is 200.'
  • felix said:

    Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.

    In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
    You really are unpleasant
  • felix said:

    Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.

    In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
    You really are unpleasant
    You need to learn context and sarcasm.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    felix said:

    Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.

    In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
    You really are unpleasant
    That's what she said....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    People know how much I love my straws to cling to, but there is evidence that global cases have been on their most sustained downward trend since the pandemic started for the last couple of weeks now - largely driven by ourselves and the US. If (big if) that is right then it should be showing up in the mortality rates soon as well. Fingers crossed.


    Does that not however leave aside the possibility that there are a great many cases out there in countries with less efficient testing regimes that are not being identified?
    Yes but Worldometers is just a crude aggregation which, in this case, helps. It has simply been totting up all the cases from all countries regardless of testing efficiency. So if one assumes that countries with poor testing have consistently poor testing, which I don’t think an unreasonable assumption, then the quality of their inputs to the site will have been the same throughout. Accordingly the up slope will be as accurate or inaccurate as the downslope. There has to be a reason for the downslope and you are suggesting that might be because testing is becoming less accurate and finding fewer cases - which doesn’t seem right,
  • Scott_xP said:

    our trade will have diversied across the globe

    It really won't
    It really will
    It might. On the other hand, it might not. It looks implausible; physical distance, time zones and (for many of the Pacific countries) language issues are reasonable reasons to think that focusing on nearer neighbours is a more fruitful strategy.

    We don't know for sure without trying, though. But if it is an experiment, what's the exit strategy?
  • felix said:

    Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.

    In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
    You really are unpleasant
    That's what she said....
    No need to add to her unpleasantness
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    On March 11, the same day the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic, Dr. Peacock held a meeting in London at the Wellcome Trust with 19 others, including clinical virologists, technologists, experts in human genome sequencing and vaccinologists, to thrash out a plan for large-scale sequencing of the coronavirus.

    “It wasn’t like a standard scientific meeting, it was a huge debate how we could do this,” recalled Dr. Peacock. By the end of the day they had a blueprint and submitted it to England’s chief scientific officer on March 18. It was accepted and 20 million pounds, equivalent to $27 million, of government funding was awarded on April 1 to set up COG-UK.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-u-k-became-world-leader-in-sequencing-the-coronavirusgenome-11612011601?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Jb9AIqUAxX
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Just wait till the dust settles. This narcissist who adores dressing up with more costume changes than Danny La Rue will be out on his arse. Just the tiniest bit of reflection by the voters after the immediate dangers have passed and he'll be lucky if he isn't exiled let alone be permitted to remain PM
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,234

    tlg86 said:

    ‘one in eight Britons say they have lost a close friend or family member to [Covid-19].’

    That works out at c.80 family members/close friends per deceased, which I’m sceptical about.

    Data + Journalist = Bollocks.
    How about doing some research before spouting your usual bollocks.

    It was based on a YouGov poll.

    The figures were produced by the statisticians who work for YouGov, some of them have even worked for the ONS, which is pretty good.

    It was also backed up by other evidence, such as 'The average number of Facebook friends for an adult is now 338. The median number of Facebook friends is 200.'
    They should have used the Facebook concept of "Close Friends", not "Friends" - the latter being fairly meaningless.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    felix said:

    Just seen a local report - I live in SE Spain - that 11 of 12 people in an old people's home have died after receiving the Pfizer jab - probably through very lax protocols following vaccination. It has me wondering if there are many/any stories yet in the UK of significant post-vaccine infections or deaths. If so I have clearly missed them. Of course I realise these people may well be very vulnerable to illness regardless of vaccination.

    In Isabel Oakshott's words, it doesn't matter as they would have died anyway.
    You really are unpleasant
    That's what she said....
    At least IO was spared the horror of house hunting in Hartlepool when Tice's bid to be the MP went dicks up.
  • ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, talking of analogies, TSE missed a trick in the thread header. He could have said ‘a boring London lawyer with a radical agenda seen as a caretaker who took over from a dimwitted dogmatist who ended up an apologist for Nazism.’

    The analogy still works fine...

    My original version was something similar with 'Why Boris Johnson admires the man who denied millions of people democracy, people who wanted to take back control from their unelected rulers is a mystery of our times.'
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