The numbers continue to look more positive and I joined the growing band of the vaccinated – politic
Comments
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Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/30/older-groups-must-remain-top-priority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers0 -
Exactly or it should have used it for our overall Covid performancekinabalu said:
The Observer can't do "Fuck up". It's a broadsheet.RobD said:
No, but it also fails to describe just how bad it was. They accidentally erected a border between NI and RoI, without even consulting Ireland!Benpointer said:
"Bunder" is hardly complimentary.FrancisUrquhart said:I have a feeling if the UK government had done something similar the Guardian wouldn't be calling it a "blunder"....
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355627347576315909?s=201 -
I pray daily, it works, the decisions now made by UK government are the right ones, and we can get on with new normal, not jabbing away without hoped for results. If you look closely at the behaviours at Downing Street press briefings, there is the same fear there I have.Pagan2 said:
No I don't agree the uk and the us have done more for covid vaccine production and distribution world wide than any other two countries in the world....the fact people like you think we havent done enough is irrelevant....the who failed badly in this pandemic from early days and no one credits anything they say....go shout at your wonderful eu who have done the leastgealbhan said:
First of all you actually have to agree there is a perception problem, not in our interest just to ignore. And let fester and grow. And become a damaging myth and misconception. That’s the main concern to me at moment, that you and these others on here just don’t get there is a problem.Pagan2 said:
I have not said a bad word about the uk government in regard to vaccines. Others are reading your post the same way as I am as a "We should send some of our vaccines to europe"gealbhan said:
You just have your head up high because you know what the truth is. Rather ignorant to how important perception actually is.Pagan2 said:
Your meaning was obvious and you have always been one of the whiners who never gave britain credit for our help with covax but instead moaned we aren't doing enough to help rich europeans who can afford to help themselves but instead prefer to try and cheapskate....take your scrofulous self to coventrygealbhan said:
That’s rather rude. Considering I totally agree with you what the truth is. And considering you are the one who completely missed an obvious point.Pagan2 said:
Gosh you do know there is a difference between having a surplus and not enough....the uk does not have enough vaccine , we aren't hoarding it dipshitgealbhan said:
You mean when we go into the detail of the rights and wrongs of it? Whilst we are there we may even learn Marie Antoinette never actually said let them eat cake.RobD said:
They should direct their ire at the EU. The UK has done far more proportionally speaking.gealbhan said:
Yes. But very much yesterday’s news now. Now it’s the UK under pressure and it’s only going to get worse.RobD said:
It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission
"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55872763
“The World Health Organization has urged the UK to pause its vaccination programme after vulnerable groups have received their jabs to help ensure the global rollout of doses is fair.
the WHO said countries should be aiming for 2bn doses to be “fairly distributed” around the world by the end of 2021.
A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, said she wanted to appeal to people in the UK, telling them: “You can wait” because ensuring equitable global distribution is “clearly morally the right thing to do”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/30/who-urges-britain-to-pause-covid-jabs-after-treating-vulnerable
WHO can say COVID vaccine should be a global business, but it seems to be getting regionalised.
But the eyes will be on those whose store house has a mountain of grain, whilst everyone else is starving. That’s only natural and to be expected?
We are no more hoarding than Marie Antoinette said let them eat cake.
So just to confirm you are not dip**** explain to everyone what is the important point I am trying to get you to realise.
That’s the point I’m making. And it’s true isn’t it?
Because you are laying into me, who agrees with you. But look at what the WHO are saying who neither of us agree with.
We can’t just put our chin in the air, we have to manage perceptions. And that means, as I have been saying for days, doing something. I’m not saying it has to be a lot. But it has to be something.
The reply’s I get is**** *** to Coventry. You want to give all our good work away like Francis of Assisi. You have no intention of praising the U.K. government.
I’m just saying we need to do something to manage this, what could be damaging, long lasting perception.
And then we can probably agree on what we can do about it. Emergency summits. Agreements headed “ The world is watching us, and everyone knows it is only through international collaboration that we will beat this pandemic.” A few win win agreements, where it looks like we are in fact sending some of our jabs to EU,
that’s actually the headline U.K. would want so tackle perceptions,
in fact it’s further down the line, or in exchange for something now for a stake of future gear that has potential to be even better, so we are actually just balancing our options and getting our fingers in future pies
That the sort of thing I think we really need to do, but seem a million miles away, with everyone convinced it’s politically impossible to do,
but I think the voters would go for it.
One argument would be, overtime it’s likely to become clear one jab is not like another jab, quality of what you are using will enter the equation alongside speed, and new way of looking at it backdated to the start. So not only would I go on record saying it’s good we are so advanced in getting jabbed in U.K., I would like to go on record saying I will not with hindsight criticise Johnson and the scientists standing with him today, for making the decision to proceed if it doesn’t turn out so well. I don’t see it as a mistake.
However. Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still? So I still claim how blessed we are means we do have to be aware we own a perception thing to manage as well, before it becomes negative and damaging to the cooperation and goodwill we will always need going forward. We need to keep jabbing with effective things for years to come.
Anyway, I have clearly laid out what I think, and weary of being abused by reactionary more partisan posters for explaining it. Let’s see how it plays out.0 -
I hadn't realised that preservation of Catalan Historic Rights are (were?) part of the Treaty of Utrecht.kle4 said:
Quite, but how to break this cycle?HYUFD said:
There is a Catalonian regional election in February which will likely lead to another nationalist majority on that poll, PM Sanchez will likely refuse a legal independence referendum as Boris will in May, though perhaps a little less aggressively than Rajoy did in 2017.kle4 said:
Exciting stuff. From afar it all seems to have quieted down - not sure how thhe area moves forward without an official attempt to settle the question, which presumably is still a no no.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
I think we can get to Tier 1 equivalent restrictions in May then hopefully largely - but probably not entirely - back to normal in Sept. Probably Spring 2022 before all masks can be thrown away and 50,000 crowds at the football.Black_Rook said:
It may not be that simple. Consider:alex_ said:
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.Black_Rook said:
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.FrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355634502241017856?s=20
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
1. Will take quite a long time to get everybody jabbed. Until we get close to the completion of the programme there will be dark warnings that younger patients, who aren't critically ill but still sick enough to need admitting, will start clogging the hospitals again. I also expect the Government and its advisers will emphasise reducing cases of Long Covid, and the need to give medical staff a bit of a break from the madness and start making progress on clearing huge treatment backlogs
2. Vaccinations may slow down anyway after the end of phase 1, when the Government may come under more international pressure to slow down and help others
3. The possibility of new variants making life difficult (and the desire to keep some restrictions in place as a consequence, to suppress any new nasties and give test and trace a chance to shut them down)
4. Vaccines are not 100% effective, some silly buggers will refuse them and a small section of the population can't take them. This plus the cumulative threat of Winter Covid and Winter Flu will encourage Government to keep some suppression measures in force all through next Winter. I've thought that likely for a while (and there'll probably be a new round of updated Covid jabs to be delivered, for the more vulnerable half of the population at least, as well come the Autumn)
I'll be delighted to be proven wrong - that we can get away with torching the Coronavirus Act and going back to something resembling normality by August or September - but I do think we're going to be lumbered with some restrictions for quite a long time. It's going to be a little like what Sweden has tried to do, with a lighter touch system that people can live with for a while, but that ultimately failed without vaccines. With the vaccines it should become possible.1 -
2) is never happening. No reason for the Government to slow things down, and by that stage everyone will have more than they can use anyway.Black_Rook said:
It may not be that simple. Consider:alex_ said:
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.Black_Rook said:
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.FrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355634502241017856?s=20
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
1. Will take quite a long time to get everybody jabbed. Until we get close to the completion of the programme there will be dark warnings that younger patients, who aren't critically ill but still sick enough to need admitting, will start clogging the hospitals again. I also expect the Government and its advisers will emphasise reducing cases of Long Covid, and the need to give medical staff a bit of a break from the madness and start making progress on clearing huge treatment backlogs
2. Vaccinations may slow down anyway after the end of phase 1, when the Government may come under more international pressure to slow down and help others
3. The possibility of new variants making life difficult (and the desire to keep some restrictions in place as a consequence, to suppress any new nasties and give test and trace a chance to shut them down)
4. Vaccines are not 100% effective, some silly buggers will refuse them and a small section of the population can't take them. This plus the cumulative threat of Winter Covid and Winter Flu will encourage Government to keep some suppression measures in force all through next Winter. I've thought that likely for a while (and there'll probably be a new round of updated Covid jabs to be delivered, for the more vulnerable half of the population at least, as well come the Autumn)
I'll be delighted to be proven wrong - that we can get away with torching the Coronavirus Act and going back to something resembling normality by August or September - but I do think we're going to be lumbered with some restrictions for quite a long time. It's going to be a little like what Sweden has tried to do, with a lighter touch system that people can live with for a while, but that ultimately failed without vaccines. With the vaccines it should become possible.
3) is a possibility, but only a possibility, and the more people are vaccinated, the lower the likelihood of new variants.
1) and 4) are somewhat self contradictory as the vaccine is likely more effective in younger patients. Also I've not seen anything to suggest that the usual suspects (the immunocompromised) can't have the vaccine, so I think the proportion who can't take it is pretty minimal. Refusers are a potential issue, but as long as it stays at or around 10% we should be fine. And the second round of vaccines targeting the new variants are already in development.
Overall I'm optimistic. More or less back to normal around September.1 -
I am partisan yes....for the people of britaingealbhan said:
I pray daily, it works, the decisions now made by UK government are the right ones, and we can get on with new normal, not jabbing away without hoped for results. If you look closely at the behaviours at Downing Street press briefings, there is the same fear there I have.Pagan2 said:
No I don't agree the uk and the us have done more for covid vaccine production and distribution world wide than any other two countries in the world....the fact people like you think we havent done enough is irrelevant....the who failed badly in this pandemic from early days and no one credits anything they say....go shout at your wonderful eu who have done the leastgealbhan said:
First of all you actually have to agree there is a perception problem, not in our interest just to ignore. And let fester and grow. And become a damaging myth and misconception. That’s the main concern to me at moment, that you and these others on here just don’t get there is a problem.Pagan2 said:
I have not said a bad word about the uk government in regard to vaccines. Others are reading your post the same way as I am as a "We should send some of our vaccines to europe"gealbhan said:
You just have your head up high because you know what the truth is. Rather ignorant to how important perception actually is.Pagan2 said:
Your meaning was obvious and you have always been one of the whiners who never gave britain credit for our help with covax but instead moaned we aren't doing enough to help rich europeans who can afford to help themselves but instead prefer to try and cheapskate....take your scrofulous self to coventrygealbhan said:
That’s rather rude. Considering I totally agree with you what the truth is. And considering you are the one who completely missed an obvious point.Pagan2 said:
Gosh you do know there is a difference between having a surplus and not enough....the uk does not have enough vaccine , we aren't hoarding it dipshitgealbhan said:
You mean when we go into the detail of the rights and wrongs of it? Whilst we are there we may even learn Marie Antoinette never actually said let them eat cake.RobD said:
They should direct their ire at the EU. The UK has done far more proportionally speaking.gealbhan said:
Yes. But very much yesterday’s news now. Now it’s the UK under pressure and it’s only going to get worse.RobD said:
It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission
"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55872763
“The World Health Organization has urged the UK to pause its vaccination programme after vulnerable groups have received their jabs to help ensure the global rollout of doses is fair.
the WHO said countries should be aiming for 2bn doses to be “fairly distributed” around the world by the end of 2021.
A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, said she wanted to appeal to people in the UK, telling them: “You can wait” because ensuring equitable global distribution is “clearly morally the right thing to do”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/30/who-urges-britain-to-pause-covid-jabs-after-treating-vulnerable
WHO can say COVID vaccine should be a global business, but it seems to be getting regionalised.
But the eyes will be on those whose store house has a mountain of grain, whilst everyone else is starving. That’s only natural and to be expected?
We are no more hoarding than Marie Antoinette said let them eat cake.
So just to confirm you are not dip**** explain to everyone what is the important point I am trying to get you to realise.
That’s the point I’m making. And it’s true isn’t it?
Because you are laying into me, who agrees with you. But look at what the WHO are saying who neither of us agree with.
We can’t just put our chin in the air, we have to manage perceptions. And that means, as I have been saying for days, doing something. I’m not saying it has to be a lot. But it has to be something.
The reply’s I get is**** *** to Coventry. You want to give all our good work away like Francis of Assisi. You have no intention of praising the U.K. government.
I’m just saying we need to do something to manage this, what could be damaging, long lasting perception.
And then we can probably agree on what we can do about it. Emergency summits. Agreements headed “ The world is watching us, and everyone knows it is only through international collaboration that we will beat this pandemic.” A few win win agreements, where it looks like we are in fact sending some of our jabs to EU,
that’s actually the headline U.K. would want so tackle perceptions,
in fact it’s further down the line, or in exchange for something now for a stake of future gear that has potential to be even better, so we are actually just balancing our options and getting our fingers in future pies
That the sort of thing I think we really need to do, but seem a million miles away, with everyone convinced it’s politically impossible to do,
but I think the voters would go for it.
One argument would be, overtime it’s likely to become clear one jab is not like another jab, quality of what you are using will enter the equation alongside speed, and new way of looking at it backdated to the start. So not only would I go on record saying it’s good we are so advanced in getting jabbed in U.K., I would like to go on record saying I will not with hindsight criticise Johnson and the scientists standing with him today, for making the decision to proceed if it doesn’t turn out so well. I don’t see it as a mistake.
However. Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still? So I still claim how blessed we are means we do have to be aware we own a perception thing to manage as well, before it becomes negative and damaging to the cooperation and goodwill we will always need going forward. We need to keep jabbing with effective things for years to come.
Anyway, I have clearly laid out what I think, and weary of being abused by reactionary more partisan posters for explaining it. Let’s see how it plays out.
I am reactionary yes when I dont believe our government is performing its main function which is to protect the people of this country
Once the people of this country are protected then we help others, not a second before that. When we help others we help those that can't help themselves not those who could but what to cheapskate it1 -
https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/europa-geeft-blunder-toe-in-vaccinoorlog-met-astrazeneca~b22836fd/?referrer=https://t.co/
Well, I read that article and this isn't over it seems......
0 -
Back to "Labour would kill your granny to keep unions sweet"CarlottaVance said:Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/30/older-groups-must-remain-top-priority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers0 -
I would write to the GP with proof and a request to be scheduled. I would also email with an image of the proof.dixiedean said:Does anyone know how to inform whoever needs to know that one is a key worker eligible for Group 2 vaccination?
My partner, as a self employed counsellor and psycotherapist, has recently been added to this group.
All we have heard is please dont conract us, we will be in touch.
But we aren't sure anyone other than HMRC knows of her occupation. Her GP certainly won't.
They have the discretion to add anyone, or vaccinate if they deem it expedient.
It may take time but it should grind through.0 -
Just in football, eight of the twenty Premier League teams and Lord alone knows how many more in the lower tiers and in Scotland have gambling sponsorship. One more headache to deal with - alongside the likelihood that full stadiums probably won't be allowed again until some point in 2022.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
The officials in the EU are still referring to it as a war. Jesus.Floater said:https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/europa-geeft-blunder-toe-in-vaccinoorlog-met-astrazeneca~b22836fd/?referrer=https://t.co/
Well, I read that article and this isn't over it seems......0 -
We know it isn't over they only backed down over article 16....the export control potential is still in place and they have delegated it to nations....the cynic suggests because they know some nation will trigger and they can appear to have clean handsFloater said:https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/europa-geeft-blunder-toe-in-vaccinoorlog-met-astrazeneca~b22836fd/?referrer=https://t.co/
Well, I read that article and this isn't over it seems......0 -
Doesn't make any sense at all to me.alex_ said:
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.Black_Rook said:
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.FrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355634502241017856?s=20
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
Talk of everyone vaccinated by the autumn. The virus will die out with herd immunity if that happens. Even if a few cases occur, if everyone's vaccinated the R number will be tiny. R < 1 and we don't have a reason for major restrictions.
Probably just keep facemasks and not much if anything else.0 -
My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?0
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Even Drakeford, of all people , rejects Starmer's and labour's policy saying Wales will only comply with the JCVIMarqueeMark said:
Back to "Labour would kill your granny to keep unions sweet"CarlottaVance said:Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/30/older-groups-must-remain-top-priority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers2 -
Songs of United (by the EU Commission) Ireland
BOYS FROM THE COUNTY HELL
Shane MacGowan
On the first day of March it was raining
It was raining worse than anything that I have ever seen
I drank ten pints of beer and I cursed all the people there
I wish that all this rain would stop falling down on me
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
At the time I was working for a landlord
And he was the meanest bastard that you have ever seen
And to lose a single penny would grieve him awful sore
And he was a miserable bollocks and a bitch's bastard's whore
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
I recall that we took care of him one Sunday
We got him out the back and we broke his fucking balls
And maybe that was dreaming and maybe that was real
But all I know is I left the place without a penny or fuck-all
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
But now I've the most charming of verandahs
I sit and watch the junkies the drunks the pimps the whores
Five green bottles sitting on the floor
I wish to Christ I wish to Christ
That I had fifteen more
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
The boys and me are drunk and looking for you
We'll eat your frigging entrails and we won't give a damn
Me daddy was a blue shirt and my mother a madam
And my brother earned his medals at My-Lai in Vietnam
And it's lend me ten pounds and I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
On the first day of March it is raining
It is raining worse than anything that I have ever seen
Stay on the other side of the road
'Cause you can never tell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psTqudN7t1M
0 -
Hmm, this doesn't smell right to me. I need to read that paper. If anyone finds a link, please let me know.IshmaelZ said:
LinkFrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/must-not-pin-hopes-covid-vaccines-alone/
--AS0 -
A bunch of stupid people may lose a lot of money.IanB2 said:My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?
Which set of stupid people that will be is not known yet.
Essentially a couple of hedge funds might get into difficulties, but don't worry.
Goldman Sucks, Douche Bank, Total Shit Bank, Royal Bank of Shit, Moron Stanley, JP Moron etc etc will still be there1 -
Given how few people are capable of wearing facemasks properly or consistently then, if it's not safe to go out without wearing a facemask, it's not safe to go out.Philip_Thompson said:
Doesn't make any sense at all to me.alex_ said:
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.Black_Rook said:
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.FrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355634502241017856?s=20
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
Talk of everyone vaccinated by the autumn. The virus will die out with herd immunity if that happens. Even if a few cases occur, if everyone's vaccinated the R number will be tiny. R < 1 and we don't have a reason for major restrictions.
Probably just keep facemasks and not much if anything else.0 -
Only IF he knows your bank-card PIN number.IanB2 said:My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?
1 -
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.1
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248896v2.full.pdfAlwaysSinging said:
Hmm, this doesn't smell right to me. I need to read that paper. If anyone finds a link, please let me know.IshmaelZ said:
LinkFrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/must-not-pin-hopes-covid-vaccines-alone/
--AS0 -
I hate to argue, butStark_Dawning said:
Thank you. Your judgement is impeccable.Benpointer said:
Couldn't agree more.Stark_Dawning said:------
________ and furthermore __
So there.0 -
There's lots of business in repairing such vehicles...TheScreamingEagles said:
Oui.DougSeal said:
I’m guessing the name of his business has more to do with the makes of (possibly vintage) cars he specialises in repairing than his nationality?TheScreamingEagles said:A Donald Trump supporter who wrote about attacking high-profile Democrats and the offices of Twitter and Facebook has been charged with stockpiling weapons and homemade explosives.
Officials found dozens of firearms, thousands of rounds of ammunition, pipe bombs and manuals like The Anarchist Cookbook and US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook when they raided the home and business of Ian Rogers in California's Napa wine country earlier this month.
The 44-year-old has been charged with the unlawful possession of unregistered destructive devices.
Among the items seized by investigators was a mock credit card emblazoned with the slogan White Privilege, Trumps Everything. It bore the number 0045 - in honour, according to the FBI, of Donald Trump, the 45th president.
Rogers also had a car bumper sticker celebrating the anti-government militia the Three Percenters. The group's name refers to the belief that only 3% of American colonists fought against the British during the American Revolution.
The charges were revealed as the US Department of Homeland Security issued a warning that anger "fuelled by false narratives" could lead to some within the country to launch attacks in the coming weeks. The warning system is usually reserved for alerts to threats of terror attacks.
In court documents, the FBI alleges text messages found on Rogers' phone revealed that he believed Trump had won the 2020 election. He expressed anger towards the social media companies who had suspended the president's accounts.
He wrote: "We can attack Twitter and the Democrats easy right now."
And in another message, he said: "I want to blow up a democrat building bad. The democrats need to pay."
In other texts he referred to the "sac office" believed to be that of California Governor Gavin Newsom, and the "bird and face offices" referring to the headquarters of Twitter and Facebook.
He also wrote: "Let's see what happens, if nothing, I'm going to war" - adding: "I hope 45 goes to war, if he doesn't I will."
Rogers, who runs a car repair business called British Auto Repair, told investigators he made the pipe bombs for "entertainment purposes only".
Bomb technicians who examined the five improvised explosive devices Rogers had constructed concluded they were fully operational and could cause great bodily harm.
https://news.sky.com/story/pro-trump-supporter-charged-with-stockpiling-explosives-wanted-to-attack-democrats-12201839
British Auto Repair of the Napa Valley Incorporated opened in Napa, California in August of 2005. We specialize in repairing British vehicles, mainly Land Rover and Jaguar. Our company is owned and operated by Ian Rogers, local wine country native, along with our trusted employee Michael Yokoi.
https://britishautorepair.net/about-us/1 -
Plus restrict international travel until the rest of the world is widely vaccinated.Philip_Thompson said:
Doesn't make any sense at all to me.alex_ said:
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.Black_Rook said:
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.FrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355634502241017856?s=20
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
Talk of everyone vaccinated by the autumn. The virus will die out with herd immunity if that happens. Even if a few cases occur, if everyone's vaccinated the R number will be tiny. R < 1 and we don't have a reason for major restrictions.
Probably just keep facemasks and not much if anything else.1 -
Big G, are you concerned about Drakeford's 22 Feb children back at school proposal? Isn't it too early? Better in March to really get the infection level down??Big_G_NorthWales said:
Even Drakeford, of all people , rejects Starmer's and labour's policy saying Wales will only comply with the JCVIMarqueeMark said:
Back to "Labour would kill your granny to keep unions sweet"CarlottaVance said:Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/30/older-groups-must-remain-top-priority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers0 -
Yes, and made to look even better than it is (since helping others when we are able to seems like it was always on the cards) because of the tantrums of the last week. No wonder for once the No.10 press operation was able to be professional.Benpointer said:
If it's true, it's a good PR step by the government.Stark_Dawning said:
Is that headline intended to assuage or inflame the readership?FrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355634502241017856?s=200 -
The rational man would say you are on to a sure thing there. But there a part of ny brain that's saying "MOOOOOOON".rcs1000 said:0 -
Good point. Hopefully it goes much lower this time.another_richard said:Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
0 -
He knows nothing about investment. And is a gambler like his father.RobD said:
Only that he might be asking you for more clothes for his next birthday if he's not careful.IanB2 said:My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?
I told him to make sure he finds a greater mug to take his seat on the bus before the last stop. What more can you do?0 -
I agree absolutely - but perhaps not once we've 'done' everyone, but once we have stock for everyone. There will be time when we've got sufficient stock for all, but we're working our way through - there's no point in holding it back then.Cyclefree said:
Sorry - This will sound selfish but until people here have been vaccinated - and I don't just mean those in groups 1 - 4 - and our economy reopened, we should not be giving vaccines away. It's not just the clinically vulnerable who are suffering but also those whose jobs and businesses and personal/social lives are on the line or on hold because of a shuttered society and economy. Like my children and the children of many others.MaxPB said:I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.
Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.
There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.
The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.
This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.
Anyone see any downsides?
There is no good reason why we should prolong the agony for them. Once we've done our population (all of it) then by all means we can - and should - share - with the developed world etc. But not until then.0 -
Not much. Hopefully he's sensible about it.IanB2 said:
He knows nothing about investment. And is a gambler like his father.RobD said:
Only that he might be asking you for more clothes for his next birthday if he's not careful.IanB2 said:My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?
I told him to make sure he finds a greater mug to take his seat on the bus before the last stop. What more can you do?0 -
Thank you very much.Black_Rook said:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248896v2.full.pdfAlwaysSinging said:
Hmm, this doesn't smell right to me. I need to read that paper. If anyone finds a link, please let me know.IshmaelZ said:
LinkFrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/must-not-pin-hopes-covid-vaccines-alone/
--AS
--AS0 -
Yes it seems unwise, though to be fair my two younger grandchildren are going to school as both their parents are key workerslondonpubman said:
Big G, are you concerned about Drakeford's 22 Feb children back at school proposal? Isn't it too early? Better in March to really get the infection level down??Big_G_NorthWales said:
Even Drakeford, of all people , rejects Starmer's and labour's policy saying Wales will only comply with the JCVIMarqueeMark said:
Back to "Labour would kill your granny to keep unions sweet"CarlottaVance said:Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/30/older-groups-must-remain-top-priority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers
I expect he will defer into March0 -
I don't follow.MattW said:
I hadn't realised that preservation of Catalan Historic Rights are (were?) part of the Treaty of Utrecht.kle4 said:
Quite, but how to break this cycle?HYUFD said:
There is a Catalonian regional election in February which will likely lead to another nationalist majority on that poll, PM Sanchez will likely refuse a legal independence referendum as Boris will in May, though perhaps a little less aggressively than Rajoy did in 2017.kle4 said:
Exciting stuff. From afar it all seems to have quieted down - not sure how thhe area moves forward without an official attempt to settle the question, which presumably is still a no no.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still?gealbhan said:
I pray daily, it works, the decisions now made by UK government are the right ones, and we can get on with new normal, not jabbing away without hoped for results. If you look closely at the behaviours at Downing Street press briefings, there is the same fear there I have.Pagan2 said:
No I don't agree the uk and the us have done more for covid vaccine production and distribution world wide than any other two countries in the world....the fact people like you think we havent done enough is irrelevant....the who failed badly in this pandemic from early days and no one credits anything they say....go shout at your wonderful eu who have done the leastgealbhan said:
First of all you actually have to agree there is a perception problem, not in our interest just to ignore. And let fester and grow. And become a damaging myth and misconception. That’s the main concern to me at moment, that you and these others on here just don’t get there is a problem.Pagan2 said:
I have not said a bad word about the uk government in regard to vaccines. Others are reading your post the same way as I am as a "We should send some of our vaccines to europe"gealbhan said:
You just have your head up high because you know what the truth is. Rather ignorant to how important perception actually is.Pagan2 said:
Your meaning was obvious and you have always been one of the whiners who never gave britain credit for our help with covax but instead moaned we aren't doing enough to help rich europeans who can afford to help themselves but instead prefer to try and cheapskate....take your scrofulous self to coventrygealbhan said:
That’s rather rude. Considering I totally agree with you what the truth is. And considering you are the one who completely missed an obvious point.Pagan2 said:
Gosh you do know there is a difference between having a surplus and not enough....the uk does not have enough vaccine , we aren't hoarding it dipshitgealbhan said:
You mean when we go into the detail of the rights and wrongs of it? Whilst we are there we may even learn Marie Antoinette never actually said let them eat cake.RobD said:
They should direct their ire at the EU. The UK has done far more proportionally speaking.gealbhan said:
Yes. But very much yesterday’s news now. Now it’s the UK under pressure and it’s only going to get worse.RobD said:
It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission
"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55872763
“The World Health Organization has urged the UK to pause its vaccination programme after vulnerable groups have received their jabs to help ensure the global rollout of doses is fair.
the WHO said countries should be aiming for 2bn doses to be “fairly distributed” around the world by the end of 2021.
A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, said she wanted to appeal to people in the UK, telling them: “You can wait” because ensuring equitable global distribution is “clearly morally the right thing to do”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/30/who-urges-britain-to-pause-covid-jabs-after-treating-vulnerable
WHO can say COVID vaccine should be a global business, but it seems to be getting regionalised.
But the eyes will be on those whose store house has a mountain of grain, whilst everyone else is starving. That’s only natural and to be expected?
We are no more hoarding than Marie Antoinette said let them eat cake.
So just to confirm you are not dip**** explain to everyone what is the important point I am trying to get you to realise.
That’s the point I’m making. And it’s true isn’t it?
Because you are laying into me, who agrees with you. But look at what the WHO are saying who neither of us agree with.
We can’t just put our chin in the air, we have to manage perceptions. And that means, as I have been saying for days, doing something. I’m not saying it has to be a lot. But it has to be something.
The reply’s I get is**** *** to Coventry. You want to give all our good work away like Francis of Assisi. You have no intention of praising the U.K. government.
I’m just saying we need to do something to manage this, what could be damaging, long lasting perception.
And then we can probably agree on what we can do about it. Emergency summits. Agreements headed “ The world is watching us, and everyone knows it is only through international collaboration that we will beat this pandemic.” A few win win agreements, where it looks like we are in fact sending some of our jabs to EU,
that’s actually the headline U.K. would want so tackle perceptions,
in fact it’s further down the line, or in exchange for something now for a stake of future gear that has potential to be even better, so we are actually just balancing our options and getting our fingers in future pies
That the sort of thing I think we really need to do, but seem a million miles away, with everyone convinced it’s politically impossible to do,
but I think the voters would go for it.
One argument would be, overtime it’s likely to become clear one jab is not like another jab, quality of what you are using will enter the equation alongside speed, and new way of looking at it backdated to the start. So not only would I go on record saying it’s good we are so advanced in getting jabbed in U.K., I would like to go on record saying I will not with hindsight criticise Johnson and the scientists standing with him today, for making the decision to proceed if it doesn’t turn out so well. I don’t see it as a mistake.
However. Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still? So I still claim how blessed we are means we do have to be aware we own a perception thing to manage as well, before it becomes negative and damaging to the cooperation and goodwill we will always need going forward. We need to keep jabbing with effective things for years to come.
Anyway, I have clearly laid out what I think, and weary of being abused by reactionary more partisan posters for explaining it. Let’s see how it plays out.
It is common for those who want donations to press already generous donors harder. That is an easier way to get further funds than pressing the less generous. You may have experienced this in your own life with various charities.1 -
UK flag is not in the centre, 0 stars.CarlottaVance said:
I don't recognise the one third from left though.0 -
Its like a game of pass the parcel. Everyone keeps getting prizes.RobD said:
Only that he might be asking you for more clothes for his next birthday if he's not careful.IanB2 said:My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?
Except to make it more exciting the final prize is a bomb waiting to go off and you don't know when it will go off.0 -
Pitcairn Islands doing a lot of heavy lifting here. I assume it'll be our new global trade hub?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Sugary cereals are great.
Why would you want to eat the dry livestock feed that passes for most "health" cereals these days, and dries your mouth out of all moisture?
May as well eat sawdust and smile.1 -
Not to mention that whilst a few in Congress might be content to speak up for “the small investor” in a battle of gamblers and speculators, you can bet that they will come down hard if it starts spilling over into big institutional investors and pension funds, or any sort of destabilisation of the financial system.Malmesbury said:
A bunch of stupid people may lose a lot of money.IanB2 said:My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?
Which set of stupid people that will be is not known yet.
Essentially a couple of hedge funds might get into difficulties, but don't worry.
Goldman Sucks, Douche Bank, Total Shit Bank, Royal Bank of Shit, Moron Stanley, JP Moron etc etc will still be there0 -
A closer eye on the locals wouldn't be a bad idea.RobD said:
Pitcairn Islands doing a lot of heavy lifting here. I assume it'll be our new global trade hub?CarlottaVance said:1 -
Thanks for that. We only found out she was added last weekend. Being 49, she wasn't previously in any group, so maybe we got a bit over excited. Have e-mailed but heard nothing yet. Patience I guess.MattW said:
I would write to the GP with proof and a request to be scheduled. I would also email with an image of the proof.dixiedean said:Does anyone know how to inform whoever needs to know that one is a key worker eligible for Group 2 vaccination?
My partner, as a self employed counsellor and psycotherapist, has recently been added to this group.
All we have heard is please dont conract us, we will be in touch.
But we aren't sure anyone other than HMRC knows of her occupation. Her GP certainly won't.
They have the discretion to add anyone, or vaccinate if they deem it expedient.
It may take time but it should grind through.0 -
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.another_richard said:Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
0 -
Assuming the US rejoins it will save a direct UK US dealRobD said:
Pitcairn Islands doing a lot of heavy lifting here. I assume it'll be our new global trade hub?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Brunei, isn't it? (I didn't check)kle4 said:
UK flag is not in the centre, 0 stars.CarlottaVance said:
I don't recognise the one third from left though.1 -
Bruneikle4 said:
UK flag is not in the centre, 0 stars.CarlottaVance said:
I don't recognise the one third from left though.0 -
And Truss? Despite the infamous cheese comment, magnificent job.2
-
Can one still buy "would you like some puffed rice with your sugar" Ricicles, or have those gone the way of the dodo?Casino_Royale said:Sugary cereals are great.
Why would you want to eat the dry livestock feed that passes for most "health" cereals these days, and dries your mouth out of all moisture?
May as well eat sawdust and smile.0 -
Did you eat with him at the Pitt Club above the Pizza Express in Cambridge? I visited him there once and that was one of my favourite evenings in his company.rcs1000 said:
Kwasi is an old friend of mine from college, and we were both fund managers in the Mayfair / St James's part of London for a decade.Fishing said:FPT:
I used to know him fairly well many years ago, and I've dealt with Johnson briefly professionally. I'd say Kwasi is much more Prime Ministerial material than Boris, but would have less of an appeal to the Red Wall types.Omnium said:Kwarteng on R4 doing very well. I don't see him as a future leader, but this sort of good performance isn't so common.
Personal anecdote - Kwasi and I last met in the British Library in late '09 or early '10. Back then, it still looked more than likely that Cameron would get an overall majority. I said they would. He demurred. History has spoken and he was right.
He's a very bright and capable guy. And I hope he ascends to the very highest office in the land.0 -
I think Bojo may have just been outflagged.CarlottaVance said:0 -
You're supposed to put milk on it.Casino_Royale said:Sugary cereals are great.
Why would you want to eat the dry livestock feed that passes for most "health" cereals these days, and dries your mouth out of all moisture?
May as well eat sawdust and smile.1 -
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheralCarlottaVance said:
2 -
Why would you want to eat frosties? There's more nutrition in cardboard.Casino_Royale said:Sugary cereals are great.
Why would you want to eat the dry livestock feed that passes for most "health" cereals these days, and dries your mouth out of all moisture?
May as well eat sawdust and smile.0 -
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.Black_Rook said:
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheralCarlottaVance said:3 -
I got a text back saying it was good advice. Which is as good as gets. Of course, recognising good advice is often easier than taking it,RobD said:
Not much. Hopefully he's sensible about it.IanB2 said:
He knows nothing about investment. And is a gambler like his father.RobD said:
Only that he might be asking you for more clothes for his next birthday if he's not careful.IanB2 said:My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?
I told him to make sure he finds a greater mug to take his seat on the bus before the last stop. What more can you do?1 -
Mail claims EU wanted to block 3.5million Pfizer doses from coming to the UK:
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355648226939068420?s=200 -
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.londonpubman said:
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.another_richard said:Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).0 -
Well, then again, as others have already pointed out, the Pitcairn Islands have finally come in handy for something.RobD said:
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.Black_Rook said:
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheralCarlottaVance said:0 -
They’re probably not desperate for mackerel, crab and herring, then.Black_Rook said:
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheralCarlottaVance said:0 -
I think deep in our hearts we've always felt more like a pacifican nation, it's why we worked so hard to spread the Empire so widely when those boring contiguous empires stayed focus on closer to home.RobD said:
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.Black_Rook said:
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheralCarlottaVance said:0 -
This flag thing is getting out of hand.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I wonder what might have given them leeway to make that claim, even if it is felt to be exagerrated.CarlottaVance said:Mail claims EU wanted to block 3.5million Pfizer doses from coming to the UK:
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355648226939068420?s=20
This is what happens when you behave badly, EU, it gives cover to all claims people might want to make.
And a double victory, twice what the People were reporting with only a single victory.1 -
Yes reasonable comment. I should have said 'controlled on an ongoing basis at a reasonable level' ie just like flu as you describe.another_richard said:
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.londonpubman said:
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.another_richard said:Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).0 -
This is ten times as deadly as flu and has a higher R.another_richard said:
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.londonpubman said:
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.another_richard said:Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).0 -
It’s just putting the old gang back together. Might even justify a new Royal yacht as well.Black_Rook said:
Well, then again, as others have already pointed out, the Pitcairn Islands have finally come in handy for something.RobD said:
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.Black_Rook said:
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheralCarlottaVance said:
Also - a cunning backdoor way to do a trade deal with China, without explicitly confronting all the PR issues involved in doing a trade deal with China...0 -
Politico.com - Hillary Clinton calls on Rep. Tim Ryan to run for Ohio Senate seat
Democrats are eyeing flipping Sen. Rob Portman’s seat in 2022.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/30/hillary-clinton-tim-ryan-senate-463980
Methinks that headlining Hillary in this story was done for clickbait. Nevertheless, decision of Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) opens up a clear opportunity (though hardly a certainty) for a Democrat to win this seat in 2022., in a state that's been trending Republican during the past decade, and that Biden lost big-time in 2020.
For one thing, the Buckeye's other US Senator, Sherrod Brown, is a Democrat. And for another, there's the possibility Republican could nominate a hard-core pro-Trump right-winger, thus alienating swing voters AND some moderate GOPers. Note that Rob Portman, a former Buckeye State governor, is a moderate well-respected in DC and esp in OH, he would most likely be elected pretty easily IF he ran again.
That's a possibility. What's definite is that Ohio will lose -1 seat in US House as per 2020 census. Which increases likelihood of incumbent House members, Ds and Rs, deciding to run for US Senate as a result of their current districts being substantially altered if not eliminated.
Earlier in the week US Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) a stormy, fiery Putinist petrel who is ranking GOP member of House Judiciary Comm. announced he is NOT gonna run for Portman's seat. Will take a while for the Republican field to settle.
On the Democratic side, Tim Ryan, a moderate who challenged Nancy Pelosi, would appear - at least on paper - to be the best prospect for picking up this important Senate seat. Of course they are ALL important, but in the context of national politics, Ohio's is more equal than most.0 -
How do you know?IanB2 said:
They’re probably not desperate for mackerel, crab and herring, then.Black_Rook said:
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheralCarlottaVance said:
Anyway, with Australia, New Zealand and Chile already in, it's an ideal opportunity to compensate for that crushing extra £1.50 on a bottle of French plonk.3 -
Indeed. Bacon and egg all the way.Luckyguy1983 said:
Why would you want to eat frosties? There's more nutrition in cardboard.Casino_Royale said:Sugary cereals are great.
Why would you want to eat the dry livestock feed that passes for most "health" cereals these days, and dries your mouth out of all moisture?
May as well eat sawdust and smile.2 -
You object to the Union Jack getting triple billing?FrancisUrquhart said:
This flag thing is getting out of hand.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Interesting that the US has vaccinated a lower percentage of people than the UK in general, but a higher percentage have received both doses there.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/0 -
And the flu vaccination program is much smaller than what the covid vaccination will be.Alistair said:
This is ten times as deadly as flu and has a higher R.another_richard said:
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.londonpubman said:
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.another_richard said:Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).0 -
I think the photograph indicates informal soundings have been very positive. It's going to look pretty silly otherwise.kle4 said:
Any sign the application will be accepted?RobD said:And Truss? Despite the infamous cheese comment, magnificent job.
The interesting thing will be if America joins - it would be good to have a limited trade deal with them, without it being a comprehensive one where they get us in a headlock. A good way of doing it.0 -
Yep, and it has the added benefit of being a club that isn't interested in political integration.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think the photograph indicates informal soundings have been very positive. It's going to look pretty silly otherwise.kle4 said:
Any sign the application will be accepted?RobD said:And Truss? Despite the infamous cheese comment, magnificent job.
The interesting thing will be if America joins - it would be good to have a limited trade deal with them, without it being a comprehensive one where they get us in a headlock. A good way of doing it.1 -
Marseille's match at home to Rennes in France's Ligue 1 was postponed after violent scenes at their training ground on Saturday.
Local police say that 300 Marseille supporters "violently attacked" officers at the training centre. There were 25 arrests.
Seven police officers were injured.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/558735880 -
If that is true, it really does seem as though Truss will have smashed it in that department. Figure a full US deal would too difficult and restrictive? Get one though the doggy door by piggybacking on someone elses.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think the photograph indicates informal soundings have been very positive. It's going to look pretty silly otherwise.kle4 said:
Any sign the application will be accepted?RobD said:And Truss? Despite the infamous cheese comment, magnificent job.
The interesting thing will be if America joins - it would be good to have a limited trade deal with them, without it being a comprehensive one where they get us in a headlock. A good way of doing it.
Caution, do not try to go through a doggy door while riding a pig.
2 -
Serious restrictions on travel are a given. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Summer holidays abroad are declared a no-no this year; even if a smaller destination like Malta manages to finish jabbing early, I'm not at all sure we'll be done in time to form a bubble arrangement with them anyway.Alistair said:
This is ten times as deadly as flu and has a higher R.another_richard said:
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.londonpubman said:
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.another_richard said:Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).
It will probably be a case of opening travel corridors to countries that are well attested to have completed their own vaccination programs, once we've done likewise, the Plague is on a very short lead at both ends, and we both keep all still-afflicted destinations out.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/08/uk-welcome-to-join-pacific-trade-pact-after-brexit-says-japanese-pmkle4 said:
Any sign the application will be accepted?RobD said:And Truss? Despite the infamous cheese comment, magnificent job.
0 -
OK.flizzy said:Being bored silly of covid and brexit, and having always been bored silly of Scottish independence which seems to have had a surge on here over the last week, my absolute favourite story at the moment is Gamestop. On more left-wing corners of the internet there's a 'Hahaha look at these rich wall street traders losing money and these little people winning' thing going on. But will any fund on Wall street or in the City really lose much if they just cover themselves until the price returns to something sensible? Could any of them actually lose more than would just come out in the wash at the end of the year? And as for the little people, I know that if they get out at the right time they could make / have made a fortune, but I imagine a lot are going to lose their entire 4 or 5 figure savings, in order that some investment fund shaves 0.01% off their profit margin. Or is there are chance a fund's losses could be big?
And could someone explain to me how if you have to borrow stock in order to short It, it's possible for the total amount shorted to be 140% of stock, as I've seen mentioned somewhere.
Forgive me if there are any major misunderstandings in my post, it isn't my area!
It's very easy for there to be more than 100% of the outstanding stock to be shorted.
Imagine a company with one share and one shareholder (Joe). The shareholder (Joe) lends his share to "Steve" and Steve sells that share to Mark.
So, Mark owns a share, Joe owns a share, and Steve owns minus one share. Which adds up to one.
It is important to remember that heavily shorted stocks are, by definition, heavily owned too. It means there are a lot of people out there who own GameStop and who can sell it.1 -
They already export "Pitcairn Pure Honey" via internet orders.RobD said:
Pitcairn Islands doing a lot of heavy lifting here. I assume it'll be our new global trade hub?CarlottaVance said:
https://www.government.pn/shop/honey.php
"With all the natural sweetness of tropical fruits and flowers"
'Pitcairn Island Pure honey is packaged in 250g jars. The price per jar is NZ$18.00 (minimum order 2 jars). There is a charge of NZ$3.00 packaging per order + postage as listed below
In May 1998, the UK Government aid agency, the Department for International Development, funded an apiculture programme for Pitcairn which included training for Pitcairn's bee keepers and a detailed analysis of the disease status of Pitcairn bees and honey. As a result, Pitcairn is now able to export honey products to New Zealand and beyond.
Pitcairn has one of the most disease free bee populations of anywhere in the world and the honey produced is of an exceptionally high quality. The apicultural scientist conducting the project, also found that Pitcairn bees were a particularly placid variety and within a short time, was able to work with them wearing minimal protection. It would therefore seem that the export of live Queen bees is another potential earner for the Pitcairn Islanders. The numbers of hives on the island is now around 60, with potential for perhaps 5 times that amount.
The rich and intense fruitiness of Pitcairn's honey is attributed to the nectar from the Mango, Lata, Passion Flower, Guava and Roseapple flowers found in abundance on Pitcairn.'1 -
This morning I had pancakes (with jam). Tomorrow I will bake scones (to eat with jam). By the day after my daughter will likely have finished the sugary cereal and I will be forced to have eggs. Without jam. Unless I have some toast for my sugar fix.Casino_Royale said:Sugary cereals are great.
Why would you want to eat the dry livestock feed that passes for most "health" cereals these days, and dries your mouth out of all moisture?
May as well eat sawdust and smile.0 -
IIRC, it wasn't Porsche that became the most valuable company in the world, it was Volkswagen. Porsche bought a bunch of call options for more than the amount of outstanding VW Ordinary shares (VW had a funny split between Prefs and Ords).alex_ said:
I think the point is that the way that shorting works, is that it is independent of actual physical stock. That is the problem. When shorting you assume that you will be able to buy the stock at a future date (at a profit or as a stop loss). However if the numbers shorting exceed supply then it becomes a massive sellers market and the shorters are totally screwed.flizzy said:Being bored silly of covid and brexit, and having always been bored silly of Scottish independence which seems to have had a surge on here over the last week, my absolute favourite story at the moment is Gamestop. On more left-wing corners of the internet there's a 'Hahaha look at these rich wall street traders losing money and these little people winning' thing going on. But will any fund on Wall street or in the City really lose much if they just cover themselves until the price returns to something sensible? Could any of them actually lose more than would just come out in the wash at the end of the year? And as for the little people, I know that if they get out at the right time they could make / have made a fortune, but I imagine a lot are going to lose their entire 4 or 5 figure savings, in order that some investment fund shaves 0.01% off their profit margin. Or is there are chance a fund's losses could be big?
And could someone explain to me how if you have to borrow stock in order to short It, it's possible for the total amount shorted to be 140% of stock, as I've seen mentioned somewhere.
Forgive me if there are any major misunderstandings in my post, it isn't my area!
You might recall this happened in 2008 when Porsche briefly became the most valuable company in the world. Large numbers of hedge funds shorted the stock on the back of a perceived crisis in the car industry, only to discover that 80% of the stock was held by a local government in Germany. Who weren't interested in selling.0 -
At a guess, they may be sticking rigidly to manufacturer's recommendations on the dosing intervals. We all know how litigious American society is, and it may well be that the state hasn't shouldered the burden of liability as it has here.Andy_JS said:Interesting that the US has vaccinated a lower percentage of people than the UK in general, but a higher percentage have received both doses there.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/0 -
We should invite Hawaii to leave the US and join.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
You object to the Union Jack getting triple billing?FrancisUrquhart said:
This flag thing is getting out of hand.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Erm, China isn't a signatoryalex_ said:
It’s just putting the old gang back together. Might even justify a new Royal yacht as well.Black_Rook said:
Well, then again, as others have already pointed out, the Pitcairn Islands have finally come in handy for something.RobD said:
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.Black_Rook said:
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheralCarlottaVance said:
Also - a cunning backdoor way to do a trade deal with China, without explicitly confronting all the PR issues involved in doing a trade deal with China...
0 -
Re Gamestop, those who bought early (which I'll define as $20/share or less) have probably done fine. But they've done fine because they've sold GME shares for more than they're worth to other Redditors.
The current owners are sitting on large profits. But to realise those profits, they need to sell their shares. And who is going to buy from them?1 -
Alright, well, on a quick scan through that paper, I think it's pretty pessimistic. The most important factors that appear to affect their results are:AlwaysSinging said:
Thank you very much.Black_Rook said:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248896v2.full.pdfAlwaysSinging said:
Hmm, this doesn't smell right to me. I need to read that paper. If anyone finds a link, please let me know.IshmaelZ said:
LinkFrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/must-not-pin-hopes-covid-vaccines-alone/
--AS
--AS
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
--AS1 -
I only visited the Pitt Club once, and it was not with Kwasi! Sadly, that old Cambridge tradition is no more. The Pitt is putt.Fishing said:
Did you eat with him at the Pitt Club above the Pizza Express in Cambridge? I visited him there once and that was one of my favourite evenings in his company.rcs1000 said:
Kwasi is an old friend of mine from college, and we were both fund managers in the Mayfair / St James's part of London for a decade.Fishing said:FPT:
I used to know him fairly well many years ago, and I've dealt with Johnson briefly professionally. I'd say Kwasi is much more Prime Ministerial material than Boris, but would have less of an appeal to the Red Wall types.Omnium said:Kwarteng on R4 doing very well. I don't see him as a future leader, but this sort of good performance isn't so common.
Personal anecdote - Kwasi and I last met in the British Library in late '09 or early '10. Back then, it still looked more than likely that Cameron would get an overall majority. I said they would. He demurred. History has spoken and he was right.
He's a very bright and capable guy. And I hope he ascends to the very highest office in the land.0 -
It should be noted (if I am remembering correctly) that Warwick modelling group were the same people who claimed a 2 week firebreak would save anywhere between 600 and 100k lives...which didn't exactly instil confidence in their modelling abilities.AlwaysSinging said:
Alright, well, on a quick scan through that paper, I think it's pretty pessimistic. The most important factors that appear to affect their results are:AlwaysSinging said:
Thank you very much.Black_Rook said:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248896v2.full.pdfAlwaysSinging said:
Hmm, this doesn't smell right to me. I need to read that paper. If anyone finds a link, please let me know.IshmaelZ said:
LinkFrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/must-not-pin-hopes-covid-vaccines-alone/
--AS
--AS
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
--AS
Which university group was behind the 3000-4000 deaths a day model?0 -
It probably is that.Black_Rook said:
At a guess, they may be sticking rigidly to manufacturer's recommendations on the dosing intervals. We all know how litigious American society is, and it may well be that the state hasn't shouldered the burden of liability as it has here.Andy_JS said:Interesting that the US has vaccinated a lower percentage of people than the UK in general, but a higher percentage have received both doses there.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/0 -
Thanks for the precis. One never knows how seriously to take these models.AlwaysSinging said:
Alright, well, on a quick scan through that paper, I think it's pretty pessimistic. The most important factors that appear to affect their results are:AlwaysSinging said:
Thank you very much.Black_Rook said:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248896v2.full.pdfAlwaysSinging said:
Hmm, this doesn't smell right to me. I need to read that paper. If anyone finds a link, please let me know.IshmaelZ said:
LinkFrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/must-not-pin-hopes-covid-vaccines-alone/
--AS
--AS
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
--AS
As I said earlier, personally I'm expecting some restrictions to continue for quite a long time, but if we can dispense with them all (save, probably, for travel curbs) by the Autumn then I'll naturally be delighted to be proven wrong.0 -
Bruneikle4 said:
UK flag is not in the centre, 0 stars.CarlottaVance said:
I don't recognise the one third from left though.0 -
"Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs"AlwaysSinging said:
Alright, well, on a quick scan through that paper, I think it's pretty pessimistic. The most important factors that appear to affect their results are:AlwaysSinging said:
Thank you very much.Black_Rook said:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248896v2.full.pdfAlwaysSinging said:
Hmm, this doesn't smell right to me. I need to read that paper. If anyone finds a link, please let me know.IshmaelZ said:
LinkFrancisUrquhart said:Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/must-not-pin-hopes-covid-vaccines-alone/
--AS
--AS
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
--AS
Really?
That sounds utterly ridiculous.
3
