Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission
"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."
It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.
Yes. But very much yesterday’s news now. Now it’s the UK under pressure and it’s only going to get worse.
“The World Health Organization has urged the UK to pause its vaccination programme after vulnerable groups have received their jabs to help ensure the global rollout of doses is fair. the WHO said countries should be aiming for 2bn doses to be “fairly distributed” around the world by the end of 2021. A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, said she wanted to appeal to people in the UK, telling them: “You can wait” because ensuring equitable global distribution is “clearly morally the right thing to do”.”
WHO can say COVID vaccine should be a global business, but it seems to be getting regionalised.
They should direct their ire at the EU. The UK has done far more proportionally speaking.
You mean when we go into the detail of the rights and wrongs of it? Whilst we are there we may even learn Marie Antoinette never actually said let them eat cake.
But the eyes will be on those whose store house has a mountain of grain, whilst everyone else is starving. That’s only natural and to be expected?
Gosh you do know there is a difference between having a surplus and not enough....the uk does not have enough vaccine , we aren't hoarding it dipshit
That’s rather rude. Considering I totally agree with you what the truth is. And considering you are the one who completely missed an obvious point.
We are no more hoarding than Marie Antoinette said let them eat cake.
So just to confirm you are not dip**** explain to everyone what is the important point I am trying to get you to realise.
Your meaning was obvious and you have always been one of the whiners who never gave britain credit for our help with covax but instead moaned we aren't doing enough to help rich europeans who can afford to help themselves but instead prefer to try and cheapskate....take your scrofulous self to coventry
You just have your head up high because you know what the truth is. Rather ignorant to how important perception actually is.
That’s the point I’m making. And it’s true isn’t it?
Because you are laying into me, who agrees with you. But look at what the WHO are saying who neither of us agree with.
We can’t just put our chin in the air, we have to manage perceptions. And that means, as I have been saying for days, doing something. I’m not saying it has to be a lot. But it has to be something.
The reply’s I get is**** *** to Coventry. You want to give all our good work away like Francis of Assisi. You have no intention of praising the U.K. government.
I’m just saying we need to do something to manage this, what could be damaging, long lasting perception.
I have not said a bad word about the uk government in regard to vaccines. Others are reading your post the same way as I am as a "We should send some of our vaccines to europe"
First of all you actually have to agree there is a perception problem, not in our interest just to ignore. And let fester and grow. And become a damaging myth and misconception. That’s the main concern to me at moment, that you and these others on here just don’t get there is a problem.
And then we can probably agree on what we can do about it. Emergency summits. Agreements headed “ The world is watching us, and everyone knows it is only through international collaboration that we will beat this pandemic.” A few win win agreements, where it looks like we are in fact sending some of our jabs to EU,
that’s actually the headline U.K. would want so tackle perceptions,
in fact it’s further down the line, or in exchange for something now for a stake of future gear that has potential to be even better, so we are actually just balancing our options and getting our fingers in future pies
That the sort of thing I think we really need to do, but seem a million miles away, with everyone convinced it’s politically impossible to do,
but I think the voters would go for it.
No I don't agree the uk and the us have done more for covid vaccine production and distribution world wide than any other two countries in the world....the fact people like you think we havent done enough is irrelevant....the who failed badly in this pandemic from early days and no one credits anything they say....go shout at your wonderful eu who have done the least
I pray daily, it works, the decisions now made by UK government are the right ones, and we can get on with new normal, not jabbing away without hoped for results. If you look closely at the behaviours at Downing Street press briefings, there is the same fear there I have.
One argument would be, overtime it’s likely to become clear one jab is not like another jab, quality of what you are using will enter the equation alongside speed, and new way of looking at it backdated to the start. So not only would I go on record saying it’s good we are so advanced in getting jabbed in U.K., I would like to go on record saying I will not with hindsight criticise Johnson and the scientists standing with him today, for making the decision to proceed if it doesn’t turn out so well. I don’t see it as a mistake.
However. Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still? So I still claim how blessed we are means we do have to be aware we own a perception thing to manage as well, before it becomes negative and damaging to the cooperation and goodwill we will always need going forward. We need to keep jabbing with effective things for years to come.
Anyway, I have clearly laid out what I think, and weary of being abused by reactionary more partisan posters for explaining it. Let’s see how it plays out.
Exciting stuff. From afar it all seems to have quieted down - not sure how thhe area moves forward without an official attempt to settle the question, which presumably is still a no no.
There is a Catalonian regional election in February which will likely lead to another nationalist majority on that poll, PM Sanchez will likely refuse a legal independence referendum as Boris will in May, though perhaps a little less aggressively than Rajoy did in 2017.
Quite, but how to break this cycle?
I hadn't realised that preservation of Catalan Historic Rights are (were?) part of the Treaty of Utrecht.
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.
It may not be that simple. Consider:
1. Will take quite a long time to get everybody jabbed. Until we get close to the completion of the programme there will be dark warnings that younger patients, who aren't critically ill but still sick enough to need admitting, will start clogging the hospitals again. I also expect the Government and its advisers will emphasise reducing cases of Long Covid, and the need to give medical staff a bit of a break from the madness and start making progress on clearing huge treatment backlogs 2. Vaccinations may slow down anyway after the end of phase 1, when the Government may come under more international pressure to slow down and help others 3. The possibility of new variants making life difficult (and the desire to keep some restrictions in place as a consequence, to suppress any new nasties and give test and trace a chance to shut them down) 4. Vaccines are not 100% effective, some silly buggers will refuse them and a small section of the population can't take them. This plus the cumulative threat of Winter Covid and Winter Flu will encourage Government to keep some suppression measures in force all through next Winter. I've thought that likely for a while (and there'll probably be a new round of updated Covid jabs to be delivered, for the more vulnerable half of the population at least, as well come the Autumn)
I'll be delighted to be proven wrong - that we can get away with torching the Coronavirus Act and going back to something resembling normality by August or September - but I do think we're going to be lumbered with some restrictions for quite a long time. It's going to be a little like what Sweden has tried to do, with a lighter touch system that people can live with for a while, but that ultimately failed without vaccines. With the vaccines it should become possible.
I think we can get to Tier 1 equivalent restrictions in May then hopefully largely - but probably not entirely - back to normal in Sept. Probably Spring 2022 before all masks can be thrown away and 50,000 crowds at the football.
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.
It may not be that simple. Consider:
1. Will take quite a long time to get everybody jabbed. Until we get close to the completion of the programme there will be dark warnings that younger patients, who aren't critically ill but still sick enough to need admitting, will start clogging the hospitals again. I also expect the Government and its advisers will emphasise reducing cases of Long Covid, and the need to give medical staff a bit of a break from the madness and start making progress on clearing huge treatment backlogs 2. Vaccinations may slow down anyway after the end of phase 1, when the Government may come under more international pressure to slow down and help others 3. The possibility of new variants making life difficult (and the desire to keep some restrictions in place as a consequence, to suppress any new nasties and give test and trace a chance to shut them down) 4. Vaccines are not 100% effective, some silly buggers will refuse them and a small section of the population can't take them. This plus the cumulative threat of Winter Covid and Winter Flu will encourage Government to keep some suppression measures in force all through next Winter. I've thought that likely for a while (and there'll probably be a new round of updated Covid jabs to be delivered, for the more vulnerable half of the population at least, as well come the Autumn)
I'll be delighted to be proven wrong - that we can get away with torching the Coronavirus Act and going back to something resembling normality by August or September - but I do think we're going to be lumbered with some restrictions for quite a long time. It's going to be a little like what Sweden has tried to do, with a lighter touch system that people can live with for a while, but that ultimately failed without vaccines. With the vaccines it should become possible.
2) is never happening. No reason for the Government to slow things down, and by that stage everyone will have more than they can use anyway.
3) is a possibility, but only a possibility, and the more people are vaccinated, the lower the likelihood of new variants.
1) and 4) are somewhat self contradictory as the vaccine is likely more effective in younger patients. Also I've not seen anything to suggest that the usual suspects (the immunocompromised) can't have the vaccine, so I think the proportion who can't take it is pretty minimal. Refusers are a potential issue, but as long as it stays at or around 10% we should be fine. And the second round of vaccines targeting the new variants are already in development.
Overall I'm optimistic. More or less back to normal around September.
BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission
"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."
It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.
Yes. But very much yesterday’s news now. Now it’s the UK under pressure and it’s only going to get worse.
“The World Health Organization has urged the UK to pause its vaccination programme after vulnerable groups have received their jabs to help ensure the global rollout of doses is fair. the WHO said countries should be aiming for 2bn doses to be “fairly distributed” around the world by the end of 2021. A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, said she wanted to appeal to people in the UK, telling them: “You can wait” because ensuring equitable global distribution is “clearly morally the right thing to do”.”
WHO can say COVID vaccine should be a global business, but it seems to be getting regionalised.
They should direct their ire at the EU. The UK has done far more proportionally speaking.
You mean when we go into the detail of the rights and wrongs of it? Whilst we are there we may even learn Marie Antoinette never actually said let them eat cake.
But the eyes will be on those whose store house has a mountain of grain, whilst everyone else is starving. That’s only natural and to be expected?
Gosh you do know there is a difference between having a surplus and not enough....the uk does not have enough vaccine , we aren't hoarding it dipshit
That’s rather rude. Considering I totally agree with you what the truth is. And considering you are the one who completely missed an obvious point.
We are no more hoarding than Marie Antoinette said let them eat cake.
So just to confirm you are not dip**** explain to everyone what is the important point I am trying to get you to realise.
Your meaning was obvious and you have always been one of the whiners who never gave britain credit for our help with covax but instead moaned we aren't doing enough to help rich europeans who can afford to help themselves but instead prefer to try and cheapskate....take your scrofulous self to coventry
You just have your head up high because you know what the truth is. Rather ignorant to how important perception actually is.
That’s the point I’m making. And it’s true isn’t it?
Because you are laying into me, who agrees with you. But look at what the WHO are saying who neither of us agree with.
We can’t just put our chin in the air, we have to manage perceptions. And that means, as I have been saying for days, doing something. I’m not saying it has to be a lot. But it has to be something.
The reply’s I get is**** *** to Coventry. You want to give all our good work away like Francis of Assisi. You have no intention of praising the U.K. government.
I’m just saying we need to do something to manage this, what could be damaging, long lasting perception.
I have not said a bad word about the uk government in regard to vaccines. Others are reading your post the same way as I am as a "We should send some of our vaccines to europe"
First of all you actually have to agree there is a perception problem, not in our interest just to ignore. And let fester and grow. And become a damaging myth and misconception. That’s the main concern to me at moment, that you and these others on here just don’t get there is a problem.
And then we can probably agree on what we can do about it. Emergency summits. Agreements headed “ The world is watching us, and everyone knows it is only through international collaboration that we will beat this pandemic.” A few win win agreements, where it looks like we are in fact sending some of our jabs to EU,
that’s actually the headline U.K. would want so tackle perceptions,
in fact it’s further down the line, or in exchange for something now for a stake of future gear that has potential to be even better, so we are actually just balancing our options and getting our fingers in future pies
That the sort of thing I think we really need to do, but seem a million miles away, with everyone convinced it’s politically impossible to do,
but I think the voters would go for it.
No I don't agree the uk and the us have done more for covid vaccine production and distribution world wide than any other two countries in the world....the fact people like you think we havent done enough is irrelevant....the who failed badly in this pandemic from early days and no one credits anything they say....go shout at your wonderful eu who have done the least
I pray daily, it works, the decisions now made by UK government are the right ones, and we can get on with new normal, not jabbing away without hoped for results. If you look closely at the behaviours at Downing Street press briefings, there is the same fear there I have.
One argument would be, overtime it’s likely to become clear one jab is not like another jab, quality of what you are using will enter the equation alongside speed, and new way of looking at it backdated to the start. So not only would I go on record saying it’s good we are so advanced in getting jabbed in U.K., I would like to go on record saying I will not with hindsight criticise Johnson and the scientists standing with him today, for making the decision to proceed if it doesn’t turn out so well. I don’t see it as a mistake.
However. Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still? So I still claim how blessed we are means we do have to be aware we own a perception thing to manage as well, before it becomes negative and damaging to the cooperation and goodwill we will always need going forward. We need to keep jabbing with effective things for years to come.
Anyway, I have clearly laid out what I think, and weary of being abused by reactionary more partisan posters for explaining it. Let’s see how it plays out.
I am partisan yes....for the people of britain
I am reactionary yes when I dont believe our government is performing its main function which is to protect the people of this country
Once the people of this country are protected then we help others, not a second before that. When we help others we help those that can't help themselves not those who could but what to cheapskate it
Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
Does anyone know how to inform whoever needs to know that one is a key worker eligible for Group 2 vaccination? My partner, as a self employed counsellor and psycotherapist, has recently been added to this group. All we have heard is please dont conract us, we will be in touch. But we aren't sure anyone other than HMRC knows of her occupation. Her GP certainly won't.
I would write to the GP with proof and a request to be scheduled. I would also email with an image of the proof.
They have the discretion to add anyone, or vaccinate if they deem it expedient.
Just in football, eight of the twenty Premier League teams and Lord alone knows how many more in the lower tiers and in Scotland have gambling sponsorship. One more headache to deal with - alongside the likelihood that full stadiums probably won't be allowed again until some point in 2022.
Well, I read that article and this isn't over it seems......
We know it isn't over they only backed down over article 16....the export control potential is still in place and they have delegated it to nations....the cynic suggests because they know some nation will trigger and they can appear to have clean hands
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.
Doesn't make any sense at all to me.
Talk of everyone vaccinated by the autumn. The virus will die out with herd immunity if that happens. Even if a few cases occur, if everyone's vaccinated the R number will be tiny. R < 1 and we don't have a reason for major restrictions.
Probably just keep facemasks and not much if anything else.
Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
On the first day of March it was raining It was raining worse than anything that I have ever seen I drank ten pints of beer and I cursed all the people there I wish that all this rain would stop falling down on me
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink And mother wake me early in the morning
At the time I was working for a landlord And he was the meanest bastard that you have ever seen And to lose a single penny would grieve him awful sore And he was a miserable bollocks and a bitch's bastard's whore
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink And mother wake me early in the morning
I recall that we took care of him one Sunday We got him out the back and we broke his fucking balls And maybe that was dreaming and maybe that was real But all I know is I left the place without a penny or fuck-all
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink And mother wake me early in the morning
But now I've the most charming of verandahs I sit and watch the junkies the drunks the pimps the whores Five green bottles sitting on the floor I wish to Christ I wish to Christ That I had fifteen more
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink And mother wake me early in the morning
The boys and me are drunk and looking for you We'll eat your frigging entrails and we won't give a damn Me daddy was a blue shirt and my mother a madam And my brother earned his medals at My-Lai in Vietnam
And it's lend me ten pounds and I'll buy you a drink And mother wake me early in the morning
On the first day of March it is raining It is raining worse than anything that I have ever seen Stay on the other side of the road 'Cause you can never tell
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.
Doesn't make any sense at all to me.
Talk of everyone vaccinated by the autumn. The virus will die out with herd immunity if that happens. Even if a few cases occur, if everyone's vaccinated the R number will be tiny. R < 1 and we don't have a reason for major restrictions.
Probably just keep facemasks and not much if anything else.
Given how few people are capable of wearing facemasks properly or consistently then, if it's not safe to go out without wearing a facemask, it's not safe to go out.
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
A Donald Trump supporter who wrote about attacking high-profile Democrats and the offices of Twitter and Facebook has been charged with stockpiling weapons and homemade explosives.
Officials found dozens of firearms, thousands of rounds of ammunition, pipe bombs and manuals like The Anarchist Cookbook and US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook when they raided the home and business of Ian Rogers in California's Napa wine country earlier this month.
The 44-year-old has been charged with the unlawful possession of unregistered destructive devices.
Among the items seized by investigators was a mock credit card emblazoned with the slogan White Privilege, Trumps Everything. It bore the number 0045 - in honour, according to the FBI, of Donald Trump, the 45th president.
Rogers also had a car bumper sticker celebrating the anti-government militia the Three Percenters. The group's name refers to the belief that only 3% of American colonists fought against the British during the American Revolution.
The charges were revealed as the US Department of Homeland Security issued a warning that anger "fuelled by false narratives" could lead to some within the country to launch attacks in the coming weeks. The warning system is usually reserved for alerts to threats of terror attacks.
In court documents, the FBI alleges text messages found on Rogers' phone revealed that he believed Trump had won the 2020 election. He expressed anger towards the social media companies who had suspended the president's accounts.
He wrote: "We can attack Twitter and the Democrats easy right now."
And in another message, he said: "I want to blow up a democrat building bad. The democrats need to pay."
In other texts he referred to the "sac office" believed to be that of California Governor Gavin Newsom, and the "bird and face offices" referring to the headquarters of Twitter and Facebook.
He also wrote: "Let's see what happens, if nothing, I'm going to war" - adding: "I hope 45 goes to war, if he doesn't I will."
Rogers, who runs a car repair business called British Auto Repair, told investigators he made the pipe bombs for "entertainment purposes only".
Bomb technicians who examined the five improvised explosive devices Rogers had constructed concluded they were fully operational and could cause great bodily harm.
I’m guessing the name of his business has more to do with the makes of (possibly vintage) cars he specialises in repairing than his nationality?
Oui.
British Auto Repair of the Napa Valley Incorporated opened in Napa, California in August of 2005. We specialize in repairing British vehicles, mainly Land Rover and Jaguar. Our company is owned and operated by Ian Rogers, local wine country native, along with our trusted employee Michael Yokoi.
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
They're guesstimating like the rest of us, of course, but that's probably not a million miles away from the way things will pan out. Personally I think that, even without a major vaccine resistance setback, we're going to be stuck with some degree of mask use and social distancing until Spring of next year.
That said, if we can get the country back into something approximating to Tier 2, so that society is basically functional again except for certain larger gatherings, then I think most people can learn to live with that for a while.
Doesn't make sense, does it? "Best case scenario with vaccinations lead to ongoing restrictions for rest of the year? Best case is that vaccinations are robust and effective, and there is no particular need for significant restrictions at all.
Doesn't make any sense at all to me.
Talk of everyone vaccinated by the autumn. The virus will die out with herd immunity if that happens. Even if a few cases occur, if everyone's vaccinated the R number will be tiny. R < 1 and we don't have a reason for major restrictions.
Probably just keep facemasks and not much if anything else.
Plus restrict international travel until the rest of the world is widely vaccinated.
Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
Back to "Labour would kill your granny to keep unions sweet"
Even Drakeford, of all people , rejects Starmer's and labour's policy saying Wales will only comply with the JCVI
Big G, are you concerned about Drakeford's 22 Feb children back at school proposal? Isn't it too early? Better in March to really get the infection level down??
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
Is that headline intended to assuage or inflame the readership?
If it's true, it's a good PR step by the government.
Yes, and made to look even better than it is (since helping others when we are able to seems like it was always on the cards) because of the tantrums of the last week. No wonder for once the No.10 press operation was able to be professional.
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
Good point. Hopefully it goes much lower this time.
I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.
Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.
There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.
The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.
This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.
Anyone see any downsides?
Sorry - This will sound selfish but until people here have been vaccinated - and I don't just mean those in groups 1 - 4 - and our economy reopened, we should not be giving vaccines away. It's not just the clinically vulnerable who are suffering but also those whose jobs and businesses and personal/social lives are on the line or on hold because of a shuttered society and economy. Like my children and the children of many others.
There is no good reason why we should prolong the agony for them. Once we've done our population (all of it) then by all means we can - and should - share - with the developed world etc. But not until then.
I agree absolutely - but perhaps not once we've 'done' everyone, but once we have stock for everyone. There will be time when we've got sufficient stock for all, but we're working our way through - there's no point in holding it back then.
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
Prioritising vaccinations for key workers such as teachers and police over the next few weeks would inevitably lead to more deaths among older people, government vaccination advisers have warned.
Back to "Labour would kill your granny to keep unions sweet"
Even Drakeford, of all people , rejects Starmer's and labour's policy saying Wales will only comply with the JCVI
Big G, are you concerned about Drakeford's 22 Feb children back at school proposal? Isn't it too early? Better in March to really get the infection level down??
Yes it seems unwise, though to be fair my two younger grandchildren are going to school as both their parents are key workers
Exciting stuff. From afar it all seems to have quieted down - not sure how thhe area moves forward without an official attempt to settle the question, which presumably is still a no no.
There is a Catalonian regional election in February which will likely lead to another nationalist majority on that poll, PM Sanchez will likely refuse a legal independence referendum as Boris will in May, though perhaps a little less aggressively than Rajoy did in 2017.
Quite, but how to break this cycle?
I hadn't realised that preservation of Catalan Historic Rights are (were?) part of the Treaty of Utrecht.
BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission
"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."
It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.
Yes. But very much yesterday’s news now. Now it’s the UK under pressure and it’s only going to get worse.
“The World Health Organization has urged the UK to pause its vaccination programme after vulnerable groups have received their jabs to help ensure the global rollout of doses is fair. the WHO said countries should be aiming for 2bn doses to be “fairly distributed” around the world by the end of 2021. A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, said she wanted to appeal to people in the UK, telling them: “You can wait” because ensuring equitable global distribution is “clearly morally the right thing to do”.”
WHO can say COVID vaccine should be a global business, but it seems to be getting regionalised.
They should direct their ire at the EU. The UK has done far more proportionally speaking.
You mean when we go into the detail of the rights and wrongs of it? Whilst we are there we may even learn Marie Antoinette never actually said let them eat cake.
But the eyes will be on those whose store house has a mountain of grain, whilst everyone else is starving. That’s only natural and to be expected?
Gosh you do know there is a difference between having a surplus and not enough....the uk does not have enough vaccine , we aren't hoarding it dipshit
That’s rather rude. Considering I totally agree with you what the truth is. And considering you are the one who completely missed an obvious point.
We are no more hoarding than Marie Antoinette said let them eat cake.
So just to confirm you are not dip**** explain to everyone what is the important point I am trying to get you to realise.
Your meaning was obvious and you have always been one of the whiners who never gave britain credit for our help with covax but instead moaned we aren't doing enough to help rich europeans who can afford to help themselves but instead prefer to try and cheapskate....take your scrofulous self to coventry
You just have your head up high because you know what the truth is. Rather ignorant to how important perception actually is.
That’s the point I’m making. And it’s true isn’t it?
Because you are laying into me, who agrees with you. But look at what the WHO are saying who neither of us agree with.
We can’t just put our chin in the air, we have to manage perceptions. And that means, as I have been saying for days, doing something. I’m not saying it has to be a lot. But it has to be something.
The reply’s I get is**** *** to Coventry. You want to give all our good work away like Francis of Assisi. You have no intention of praising the U.K. government.
I’m just saying we need to do something to manage this, what could be damaging, long lasting perception.
I have not said a bad word about the uk government in regard to vaccines. Others are reading your post the same way as I am as a "We should send some of our vaccines to europe"
First of all you actually have to agree there is a perception problem, not in our interest just to ignore. And let fester and grow. And become a damaging myth and misconception. That’s the main concern to me at moment, that you and these others on here just don’t get there is a problem.
And then we can probably agree on what we can do about it. Emergency summits. Agreements headed “ The world is watching us, and everyone knows it is only through international collaboration that we will beat this pandemic.” A few win win agreements, where it looks like we are in fact sending some of our jabs to EU,
that’s actually the headline U.K. would want so tackle perceptions,
in fact it’s further down the line, or in exchange for something now for a stake of future gear that has potential to be even better, so we are actually just balancing our options and getting our fingers in future pies
That the sort of thing I think we really need to do, but seem a million miles away, with everyone convinced it’s politically impossible to do,
but I think the voters would go for it.
No I don't agree the uk and the us have done more for covid vaccine production and distribution world wide than any other two countries in the world....the fact people like you think we havent done enough is irrelevant....the who failed badly in this pandemic from early days and no one credits anything they say....go shout at your wonderful eu who have done the least
I pray daily, it works, the decisions now made by UK government are the right ones, and we can get on with new normal, not jabbing away without hoped for results. If you look closely at the behaviours at Downing Street press briefings, there is the same fear there I have.
One argument would be, overtime it’s likely to become clear one jab is not like another jab, quality of what you are using will enter the equation alongside speed, and new way of looking at it backdated to the start. So not only would I go on record saying it’s good we are so advanced in getting jabbed in U.K., I would like to go on record saying I will not with hindsight criticise Johnson and the scientists standing with him today, for making the decision to proceed if it doesn’t turn out so well. I don’t see it as a mistake.
However. Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still? So I still claim how blessed we are means we do have to be aware we own a perception thing to manage as well, before it becomes negative and damaging to the cooperation and goodwill we will always need going forward. We need to keep jabbing with effective things for years to come.
Anyway, I have clearly laid out what I think, and weary of being abused by reactionary more partisan posters for explaining it. Let’s see how it plays out.
Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still?
It is common for those who want donations to press already generous donors harder. That is an easier way to get further funds than pressing the less generous. You may have experienced this in your own life with various charities.
My nephew is sending me texts about how “people are going to take down Wall Street”. Should I be worried?
A bunch of stupid people may lose a lot of money.
Which set of stupid people that will be is not known yet.
Essentially a couple of hedge funds might get into difficulties, but don't worry.
Goldman Sucks, Douche Bank, Total Shit Bank, Royal Bank of Shit, Moron Stanley, JP Moron etc etc will still be there
Not to mention that whilst a few in Congress might be content to speak up for “the small investor” in a battle of gamblers and speculators, you can bet that they will come down hard if it starts spilling over into big institutional investors and pension funds, or any sort of destabilisation of the financial system.
Does anyone know how to inform whoever needs to know that one is a key worker eligible for Group 2 vaccination? My partner, as a self employed counsellor and psycotherapist, has recently been added to this group. All we have heard is please dont conract us, we will be in touch. But we aren't sure anyone other than HMRC knows of her occupation. Her GP certainly won't.
I would write to the GP with proof and a request to be scheduled. I would also email with an image of the proof.
They have the discretion to add anyone, or vaccinate if they deem it expedient.
It may take time but it should grind through.
Thanks for that. We only found out she was added last weekend. Being 49, she wasn't previously in any group, so maybe we got a bit over excited. Have e-mailed but heard nothing yet. Patience I guess.
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.
Kwarteng on R4 doing very well. I don't see him as a future leader, but this sort of good performance isn't so common.
I used to know him fairly well many years ago, and I've dealt with Johnson briefly professionally. I'd say Kwasi is much more Prime Ministerial material than Boris, but would have less of an appeal to the Red Wall types.
Personal anecdote - Kwasi and I last met in the British Library in late '09 or early '10. Back then, it still looked more than likely that Cameron would get an overall majority. I said they would. He demurred. History has spoken and he was right.
Kwasi is an old friend of mine from college, and we were both fund managers in the Mayfair / St James's part of London for a decade.
He's a very bright and capable guy. And I hope he ascends to the very highest office in the land.
Did you eat with him at the Pitt Club above the Pizza Express in Cambridge? I visited him there once and that was one of my favourite evenings in his company.
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheral
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheral
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheral
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.
Well, then again, as others have already pointed out, the Pitcairn Islands have finally come in handy for something.
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheral
They’re probably not desperate for mackerel, crab and herring, then.
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheral
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.
I think deep in our hearts we've always felt more like a pacifican nation, it's why we worked so hard to spread the Empire so widely when those boring contiguous empires stayed focus on closer to home.
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).
Yes reasonable comment. I should have said 'controlled on an ongoing basis at a reasonable level' ie just like flu as you describe.
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).
This is ten times as deadly as flu and has a higher R.
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheral
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.
Well, then again, as others have already pointed out, the Pitcairn Islands have finally come in handy for something.
It’s just putting the old gang back together. Might even justify a new Royal yacht as well.
Also - a cunning backdoor way to do a trade deal with China, without explicitly confronting all the PR issues involved in doing a trade deal with China...
Methinks that headlining Hillary in this story was done for clickbait. Nevertheless, decision of Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) opens up a clear opportunity (though hardly a certainty) for a Democrat to win this seat in 2022., in a state that's been trending Republican during the past decade, and that Biden lost big-time in 2020.
For one thing, the Buckeye's other US Senator, Sherrod Brown, is a Democrat. And for another, there's the possibility Republican could nominate a hard-core pro-Trump right-winger, thus alienating swing voters AND some moderate GOPers. Note that Rob Portman, a former Buckeye State governor, is a moderate well-respected in DC and esp in OH, he would most likely be elected pretty easily IF he ran again.
That's a possibility. What's definite is that Ohio will lose -1 seat in US House as per 2020 census. Which increases likelihood of incumbent House members, Ds and Rs, deciding to run for US Senate as a result of their current districts being substantially altered if not eliminated.
Earlier in the week US Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) a stormy, fiery Putinist petrel who is ranking GOP member of House Judiciary Comm. announced he is NOT gonna run for Portman's seat. Will take a while for the Republican field to settle.
On the Democratic side, Tim Ryan, a moderate who challenged Nancy Pelosi, would appear - at least on paper - to be the best prospect for picking up this important Senate seat. Of course they are ALL important, but in the context of national politics, Ohio's is more equal than most.
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheral
They’re probably not desperate for mackerel, crab and herring, then.
How do you know?
Anyway, with Australia, New Zealand and Chile already in, it's an ideal opportunity to compensate for that crushing extra £1.50 on a bottle of French plonk.
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).
This is ten times as deadly as flu and has a higher R.
And the flu vaccination program is much smaller than what the covid vaccination will be.
And Truss? Despite the infamous cheese comment, magnificent job.
Any sign the application will be accepted?
I think the photograph indicates informal soundings have been very positive. It's going to look pretty silly otherwise.
The interesting thing will be if America joins - it would be good to have a limited trade deal with them, without it being a comprehensive one where they get us in a headlock. A good way of doing it.
And Truss? Despite the infamous cheese comment, magnificent job.
Any sign the application will be accepted?
I think the photograph indicates informal soundings have been very positive. It's going to look pretty silly otherwise.
The interesting thing will be if America joins - it would be good to have a limited trade deal with them, without it being a comprehensive one where they get us in a headlock. A good way of doing it.
Yep, and it has the added benefit of being a club that isn't interested in political integration.
And Truss? Despite the infamous cheese comment, magnificent job.
Any sign the application will be accepted?
I think the photograph indicates informal soundings have been very positive. It's going to look pretty silly otherwise.
The interesting thing will be if America joins - it would be good to have a limited trade deal with them, without it being a comprehensive one where they get us in a headlock. A good way of doing it.
If that is true, it really does seem as though Truss will have smashed it in that department. Figure a full US deal would too difficult and restrictive? Get one though the doggy door by piggybacking on someone elses.
Caution, do not try to go through a doggy door while riding a pig.
Can I point out that with about ten million fewer people with acquired immunity, zero vaccination and minimal mask wearing daily infections fell to below a thousand per day last June.
True. But this time we need the elimination to be permanent.
That requires massive restrictions on international travel for several years.
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).
This is ten times as deadly as flu and has a higher R.
Serious restrictions on travel are a given. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Summer holidays abroad are declared a no-no this year; even if a smaller destination like Malta manages to finish jabbing early, I'm not at all sure we'll be done in time to form a bubble arrangement with them anyway.
It will probably be a case of opening travel corridors to countries that are well attested to have completed their own vaccination programs, once we've done likewise, the Plague is on a very short lead at both ends, and we both keep all still-afflicted destinations out.
Being bored silly of covid and brexit, and having always been bored silly of Scottish independence which seems to have had a surge on here over the last week, my absolute favourite story at the moment is Gamestop. On more left-wing corners of the internet there's a 'Hahaha look at these rich wall street traders losing money and these little people winning' thing going on. But will any fund on Wall street or in the City really lose much if they just cover themselves until the price returns to something sensible? Could any of them actually lose more than would just come out in the wash at the end of the year? And as for the little people, I know that if they get out at the right time they could make / have made a fortune, but I imagine a lot are going to lose their entire 4 or 5 figure savings, in order that some investment fund shaves 0.01% off their profit margin. Or is there are chance a fund's losses could be big?
And could someone explain to me how if you have to borrow stock in order to short It, it's possible for the total amount shorted to be 140% of stock, as I've seen mentioned somewhere.
Forgive me if there are any major misunderstandings in my post, it isn't my area!
OK.
It's very easy for there to be more than 100% of the outstanding stock to be shorted.
Imagine a company with one share and one shareholder (Joe). The shareholder (Joe) lends his share to "Steve" and Steve sells that share to Mark.
So, Mark owns a share, Joe owns a share, and Steve owns minus one share. Which adds up to one.
It is important to remember that heavily shorted stocks are, by definition, heavily owned too. It means there are a lot of people out there who own GameStop and who can sell it.
"With all the natural sweetness of tropical fruits and flowers"
'Pitcairn Island Pure honey is packaged in 250g jars. The price per jar is NZ$18.00 (minimum order 2 jars). There is a charge of NZ$3.00 packaging per order + postage as listed below
In May 1998, the UK Government aid agency, the Department for International Development, funded an apiculture programme for Pitcairn which included training for Pitcairn's bee keepers and a detailed analysis of the disease status of Pitcairn bees and honey. As a result, Pitcairn is now able to export honey products to New Zealand and beyond.
Pitcairn has one of the most disease free bee populations of anywhere in the world and the honey produced is of an exceptionally high quality. The apicultural scientist conducting the project, also found that Pitcairn bees were a particularly placid variety and within a short time, was able to work with them wearing minimal protection. It would therefore seem that the export of live Queen bees is another potential earner for the Pitcairn Islanders. The numbers of hives on the island is now around 60, with potential for perhaps 5 times that amount.
The rich and intense fruitiness of Pitcairn's honey is attributed to the nectar from the Mango, Lata, Passion Flower, Guava and Roseapple flowers found in abundance on Pitcairn.'
Why would you want to eat the dry livestock feed that passes for most "health" cereals these days, and dries your mouth out of all moisture?
May as well eat sawdust and smile.
This morning I had pancakes (with jam). Tomorrow I will bake scones (to eat with jam). By the day after my daughter will likely have finished the sugary cereal and I will be forced to have eggs. Without jam. Unless I have some toast for my sugar fix.
Being bored silly of covid and brexit, and having always been bored silly of Scottish independence which seems to have had a surge on here over the last week, my absolute favourite story at the moment is Gamestop. On more left-wing corners of the internet there's a 'Hahaha look at these rich wall street traders losing money and these little people winning' thing going on. But will any fund on Wall street or in the City really lose much if they just cover themselves until the price returns to something sensible? Could any of them actually lose more than would just come out in the wash at the end of the year? And as for the little people, I know that if they get out at the right time they could make / have made a fortune, but I imagine a lot are going to lose their entire 4 or 5 figure savings, in order that some investment fund shaves 0.01% off their profit margin. Or is there are chance a fund's losses could be big?
And could someone explain to me how if you have to borrow stock in order to short It, it's possible for the total amount shorted to be 140% of stock, as I've seen mentioned somewhere.
Forgive me if there are any major misunderstandings in my post, it isn't my area!
I think the point is that the way that shorting works, is that it is independent of actual physical stock. That is the problem. When shorting you assume that you will be able to buy the stock at a future date (at a profit or as a stop loss). However if the numbers shorting exceed supply then it becomes a massive sellers market and the shorters are totally screwed.
You might recall this happened in 2008 when Porsche briefly became the most valuable company in the world. Large numbers of hedge funds shorted the stock on the back of a perceived crisis in the car industry, only to discover that 80% of the stock was held by a local government in Germany. Who weren't interested in selling.
IIRC, it wasn't Porsche that became the most valuable company in the world, it was Volkswagen. Porsche bought a bunch of call options for more than the amount of outstanding VW Ordinary shares (VW had a funny split between Prefs and Ords).
At a guess, they may be sticking rigidly to manufacturer's recommendations on the dosing intervals. We all know how litigious American society is, and it may well be that the state hasn't shouldered the burden of liability as it has here.
It could work. We've always been distant from the centre in Europe. In this group, there is no centre. They're all arranged round a whacking great ocean, so everyone's equally peripheral
It's also a bit eccentric that the UK should join a pacific trade area. Fully in character.
Well, then again, as others have already pointed out, the Pitcairn Islands have finally come in handy for something.
It’s just putting the old gang back together. Might even justify a new Royal yacht as well.
Also - a cunning backdoor way to do a trade deal with China, without explicitly confronting all the PR issues involved in doing a trade deal with China...
Re Gamestop, those who bought early (which I'll define as $20/share or less) have probably done fine. But they've done fine because they've sold GME shares for more than they're worth to other Redditors.
The current owners are sitting on large profits. But to realise those profits, they need to sell their shares. And who is going to buy from them?
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
Alright, well, on a quick scan through that paper, I think it's pretty pessimistic. The most important factors that appear to affect their results are:
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
Kwarteng on R4 doing very well. I don't see him as a future leader, but this sort of good performance isn't so common.
I used to know him fairly well many years ago, and I've dealt with Johnson briefly professionally. I'd say Kwasi is much more Prime Ministerial material than Boris, but would have less of an appeal to the Red Wall types.
Personal anecdote - Kwasi and I last met in the British Library in late '09 or early '10. Back then, it still looked more than likely that Cameron would get an overall majority. I said they would. He demurred. History has spoken and he was right.
Kwasi is an old friend of mine from college, and we were both fund managers in the Mayfair / St James's part of London for a decade.
He's a very bright and capable guy. And I hope he ascends to the very highest office in the land.
Did you eat with him at the Pitt Club above the Pizza Express in Cambridge? I visited him there once and that was one of my favourite evenings in his company.
I only visited the Pitt Club once, and it was not with Kwasi! Sadly, that old Cambridge tradition is no more. The Pitt is putt.
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
Alright, well, on a quick scan through that paper, I think it's pretty pessimistic. The most important factors that appear to affect their results are:
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
--AS
It should be noted (if I am remembering correctly) that Warwick modelling group were the same people who claimed a 2 week firebreak would save anywhere between 600 and 100k lives...which didn't exactly instil confidence in their modelling abilities.
Which university group was behind the 3000-4000 deaths a day model?
At a guess, they may be sticking rigidly to manufacturer's recommendations on the dosing intervals. We all know how litigious American society is, and it may well be that the state hasn't shouldered the burden of liability as it has here.
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
Alright, well, on a quick scan through that paper, I think it's pretty pessimistic. The most important factors that appear to affect their results are:
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
--AS
Thanks for the precis. One never knows how seriously to take these models.
As I said earlier, personally I'm expecting some restrictions to continue for quite a long time, but if we can dispense with them all (save, probably, for travel curbs) by the Autumn then I'll naturally be delighted to be proven wrong.
Warwick eggheads say even best case scenario with vaccinations, lockdown until end of May and then back to last September restrictions for the rest of the year.....
Alright, well, on a quick scan through that paper, I think it's pretty pessimistic. The most important factors that appear to affect their results are:
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
--AS
"Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs"
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/30/older-groups-must-remain-top-priority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers
One argument would be, overtime it’s likely to become clear one jab is not like another jab, quality of what you are using will enter the equation alongside speed, and new way of looking at it backdated to the start. So not only would I go on record saying it’s good we are so advanced in getting jabbed in U.K., I would like to go on record saying I will not with hindsight criticise Johnson and the scientists standing with him today, for making the decision to proceed if it doesn’t turn out so well. I don’t see it as a mistake.
However. Look at what the WHO spokeswoman is saying. Considering our contributions to COVAX how come they going further still? So I still claim how blessed we are means we do have to be aware we own a perception thing to manage as well, before it becomes negative and damaging to the cooperation and goodwill we will always need going forward. We need to keep jabbing with effective things for years to come.
Anyway, I have clearly laid out what I think, and weary of being abused by reactionary more partisan posters for explaining it. Let’s see how it plays out.
3) is a possibility, but only a possibility, and the more people are vaccinated, the lower the likelihood of new variants.
1) and 4) are somewhat self contradictory as the vaccine is likely more effective in younger patients. Also I've not seen anything to suggest that the usual suspects (the immunocompromised) can't have the vaccine, so I think the proportion who can't take it is pretty minimal. Refusers are a potential issue, but as long as it stays at or around 10% we should be fine. And the second round of vaccines targeting the new variants are already in development.
Overall I'm optimistic. More or less back to normal around September.
I am reactionary yes when I dont believe our government is performing its main function which is to protect the people of this country
Once the people of this country are protected then we help others, not a second before that. When we help others we help those that can't help themselves not those who could but what to cheapskate it
Well, I read that article and this isn't over it seems......
They have the discretion to add anyone, or vaccinate if they deem it expedient.
It may take time but it should grind through.
Talk of everyone vaccinated by the autumn. The virus will die out with herd immunity if that happens. Even if a few cases occur, if everyone's vaccinated the R number will be tiny. R < 1 and we don't have a reason for major restrictions.
Probably just keep facemasks and not much if anything else.
BOYS FROM THE COUNTY HELL
Shane MacGowan
On the first day of March it was raining
It was raining worse than anything that I have ever seen
I drank ten pints of beer and I cursed all the people there
I wish that all this rain would stop falling down on me
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
At the time I was working for a landlord
And he was the meanest bastard that you have ever seen
And to lose a single penny would grieve him awful sore
And he was a miserable bollocks and a bitch's bastard's whore
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
I recall that we took care of him one Sunday
We got him out the back and we broke his fucking balls
And maybe that was dreaming and maybe that was real
But all I know is I left the place without a penny or fuck-all
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
But now I've the most charming of verandahs
I sit and watch the junkies the drunks the pimps the whores
Five green bottles sitting on the floor
I wish to Christ I wish to Christ
That I had fifteen more
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
The boys and me are drunk and looking for you
We'll eat your frigging entrails and we won't give a damn
Me daddy was a blue shirt and my mother a madam
And my brother earned his medals at My-Lai in Vietnam
And it's lend me ten pounds and I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
On the first day of March it is raining
It is raining worse than anything that I have ever seen
Stay on the other side of the road
'Cause you can never tell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psTqudN7t1M
--AS
Which set of stupid people that will be is not known yet.
Essentially a couple of hedge funds might get into difficulties, but don't worry.
Goldman Sucks, Douche Bank, Total Shit Bank, Royal Bank of Shit, Moron Stanley, JP Moron etc etc will still be there
________ and furthermore __
So there.
I told him to make sure he finds a greater mug to take his seat on the bus before the last stop. What more can you do?
--AS
I expect he will defer into March
It is common for those who want donations to press already generous donors harder. That is an easier way to get further funds than pressing the less generous. You may have experienced this in your own life with various charities.
I don't recognise the one third from left though.
Except to make it more exciting the final prize is a bomb waiting to go off and you don't know when it will go off.
Why would you want to eat the dry livestock feed that passes for most "health" cereals these days, and dries your mouth out of all moisture?
May as well eat sawdust and smile.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1355648226939068420?s=20
Alternatively we allow an acceptable death rate as we do with flu (it will partially be instead of flu deaths).
This is what happens when you behave badly, EU, it gives cover to all claims people might want to make.
And a double victory, twice what the People were reporting with only a single victory.
Also - a cunning backdoor way to do a trade deal with China, without explicitly confronting all the PR issues involved in doing a trade deal with China...
Democrats are eyeing flipping Sen. Rob Portman’s seat in 2022.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/30/hillary-clinton-tim-ryan-senate-463980
Methinks that headlining Hillary in this story was done for clickbait. Nevertheless, decision of Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) opens up a clear opportunity (though hardly a certainty) for a Democrat to win this seat in 2022., in a state that's been trending Republican during the past decade, and that Biden lost big-time in 2020.
For one thing, the Buckeye's other US Senator, Sherrod Brown, is a Democrat. And for another, there's the possibility Republican could nominate a hard-core pro-Trump right-winger, thus alienating swing voters AND some moderate GOPers. Note that Rob Portman, a former Buckeye State governor, is a moderate well-respected in DC and esp in OH, he would most likely be elected pretty easily IF he ran again.
That's a possibility. What's definite is that Ohio will lose -1 seat in US House as per 2020 census. Which increases likelihood of incumbent House members, Ds and Rs, deciding to run for US Senate as a result of their current districts being substantially altered if not eliminated.
Earlier in the week US Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) a stormy, fiery Putinist petrel who is ranking GOP member of House Judiciary Comm. announced he is NOT gonna run for Portman's seat. Will take a while for the Republican field to settle.
On the Democratic side, Tim Ryan, a moderate who challenged Nancy Pelosi, would appear - at least on paper - to be the best prospect for picking up this important Senate seat. Of course they are ALL important, but in the context of national politics, Ohio's is more equal than most.
Anyway, with Australia, New Zealand and Chile already in, it's an ideal opportunity to compensate for that crushing extra £1.50 on a bottle of French plonk.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
The interesting thing will be if America joins - it would be good to have a limited trade deal with them, without it being a comprehensive one where they get us in a headlock. A good way of doing it.
Local police say that 300 Marseille supporters "violently attacked" officers at the training centre. There were 25 arrests.
Seven police officers were injured.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55873588
Caution, do not try to go through a doggy door while riding a pig.
It will probably be a case of opening travel corridors to countries that are well attested to have completed their own vaccination programs, once we've done likewise, the Plague is on a very short lead at both ends, and we both keep all still-afflicted destinations out.
It's very easy for there to be more than 100% of the outstanding stock to be shorted.
Imagine a company with one share and one shareholder (Joe). The shareholder (Joe) lends his share to "Steve" and Steve sells that share to Mark.
So, Mark owns a share, Joe owns a share, and Steve owns minus one share. Which adds up to one.
It is important to remember that heavily shorted stocks are, by definition, heavily owned too. It means there are a lot of people out there who own GameStop and who can sell it.
https://www.government.pn/shop/honey.php
"With all the natural sweetness of tropical fruits and flowers"
'Pitcairn Island Pure honey is packaged in 250g jars. The price per jar is NZ$18.00 (minimum order 2 jars). There is a charge of NZ$3.00 packaging per order + postage as listed below
In May 1998, the UK Government aid agency, the Department for International Development, funded an apiculture programme for Pitcairn which included training for Pitcairn's bee keepers and a detailed analysis of the disease status of Pitcairn bees and honey. As a result, Pitcairn is now able to export honey products to New Zealand and beyond.
Pitcairn has one of the most disease free bee populations of anywhere in the world and the honey produced is of an exceptionally high quality. The apicultural scientist conducting the project, also found that Pitcairn bees were a particularly placid variety and within a short time, was able to work with them wearing minimal protection. It would therefore seem that the export of live Queen bees is another potential earner for the Pitcairn Islanders. The numbers of hives on the island is now around 60, with potential for perhaps 5 times that amount.
The rich and intense fruitiness of Pitcairn's honey is attributed to the nectar from the Mango, Lata, Passion Flower, Guava and Roseapple flowers found in abundance on Pitcairn.'
The current owners are sitting on large profits. But to realise those profits, they need to sell their shares. And who is going to buy from them?
. They assume a full 2 dose vaccination reduces mortality by 80%. At the moment we have no idea of the true figure, and it's likely to be less effective in the very old, but I think this is pretty pessimistic for (say) under 70s. Trial data was scarce, but even so. As a result of this assumption, about half of the deaths they predict occur in vaccinated people.
. They assume no ramping up beyond 2 million doses delivered per week. There is also a slowing down over the summer, for no reason that I saw explained (though I might have missed it). So their model is based on everyone who is going to accept a vaccine getting it by December, not sooner. I sincerely hope that this is far from what will happen.
. I didn't notice (though I might have missed it) that they took into account that a proportion of the population -- and crucially, as @DougSeal noted above, a higher proportion of those who mix the most -- are already immune (for a while) through prior infection.
. The other critical parameter is the transmission reduction of the vaccine. Their most optimistic model has 85%. That does actually sound rather optimistic, but at the moment we just have no idea. Their pessimistic model of 0% I find implausible. Their uptake projections are such that even 85% transmission reduction doesn't reduce R below 1 without NPIs. Naturally, in such a circumstance, the medium-term outcomes are poor unless NPIs are maintained. However even our highly-imperfect version of test, trace, and isolate would have some impact here.
Their projections for hospitalizations are alarming and not entirely consistent. I would want to investigate these model outputs further before believing them. They didn't model ICU capacity.
(I also remain disappointed by the depth of science in epidemiological modelling, but that's just me being a snob.)
So I'm not too concerned by their conclusions as long as vaccine roll-out keeps increasing momentum, as long as vaccine uptake is good, and as long as the vaccines are better than 80% effective at preventing mortality.
--AS
Which university group was behind the 3000-4000 deaths a day model?
As I said earlier, personally I'm expecting some restrictions to continue for quite a long time, but if we can dispense with them all (save, probably, for travel curbs) by the Autumn then I'll naturally be delighted to be proven wrong.
Really?
That sounds utterly ridiculous.