The numbers continue to look more positive and I joined the growing band of the vaccinated – politic

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1355590489425195013

I'm glad these sinister propaganda videos are not a feature of British politics.

I'm glad we don't have traitors and seditionists in the House of Commons.

Technically we do with the Scottish National Party Sinn Féin.

The oath to the Queen is clearly taken more seriously than the oath to the US Constitution. So does the trick.

Excellent news on both scores OGH - national and personal.

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission

"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55872763

It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.

Not really - it just shows the reality of how they work and think

Flatlander said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Family member told me they wouldn't take a Johnson jab if offered, given the 66% effectiveness. Hope that is not common, albeit it'll be some time before it occurs.

I think the government do need to a better job of communicating all these vaccines have an incredible high level of protect against serious illness. I don't want Covid, but if i got a bad flu for a week, that isn't the same as being in ICU because I didn't get a jab because it only stopped me getting covid with 66% efficacy.

J&J wasn't 100% (or very close) at stopping serious illness though, unlike AZN. It was 85% I think?

I suspect it will be turned into a two dose jab and will then be more or less equivalent to AZN given the technology is similar. Isn't there a trial being run to that effect?

Still, I wouldn't turn it down.

100% against hospitalisation still, so the severe disease was presumably not of the life threatening or permanent life changing type.

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial#:~:text=The vaccine candidate was 85,participants reported after day 49.

"The vaccine candidate was 85 percent effective in preventing severe disease across all regions studied, [i] 28 days after vaccination in all adults 18 years and older. Efficacy against severe disease increased over time with no cases in vaccinated participants reported after day 49.

The Janssen COVID-19 vaccine candidate demonstrated complete protection against COVID-related hospitalization and death, 28 days post-vaccination. There was a clear effect of the vaccine on COVID-19 cases requiring medical intervention (hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), with no reported cases among participants who had received the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine, 28 days post-vaccination."

Floater said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission

"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55872763

It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.

Not really - it just shows the reality of how they work and think

It's notable - if you follow through her career - that she follows a pattern

- Comes in to reshape a department/organisation. Big change coming etc.
- Pay no attention to the real issues.
- Creates a car crash, often involving contractual obligations.
- Gets promoted in the nick of time.

She did this at least twice in German politics.

On the dangers of paying too much attention to the opinion polls - public backs wholesale cull of grannies to save fit twentysomething policemen from a cough.

All those aged 50 and over have been placed in groups 1 to 9 of the first phase of the distribution effort, as well as those most vulnerable to the disease. Maggie Wearmouth, another member of the JCVI, said: “Our duty is to protect the most vulnerable members of society as quickly and efficiently as possible. Every time you vaccinate one person, you are denying that opportunity to someone else. The vaccine rollout for priority groups 1-4 is going really well at the moment. Proceeding swiftly with groups 5-9 is the best way to ensure the protection of most of the groups asking for priority consideration.”

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer found that almost 94% of the public think there must be some workers that qualify for vaccine priority, either alongside or above some older age groups. More than half (54%) backed prioritisation for teachers, and a similar proportion (53%) backed the move for police.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/30/older-groups-must-remain-top-priority-for-vaccines-warn-government-advisers

FrancisUrquhart said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

MikeSmithson said:

NickPalmer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Congratulations Mike and get well soon Stocky.

Hear hear! Do you have as date for round 2, Mike?

The second jab is booked for mid-April. Have you had yours Nick?

Don't bank on that if it's the Pfizer jab, Mike. I know that Michael Gove has gone on record saying that the Government is not worried about 2nd doses being interrupted by the EU, but that seems to be window dressing. It's not in our Government's hands. Even if some reassurance has been given behind the scenes, it would still come down to whether this country can place any trust in the word of a mendacious EU Commission and the likes of Macron, and the answer to that is obvious now. It seems foolhardy at this point not to start giving some 2nd doses to the very early Pfizer cases, at least to reduce the backlog if everything goes pear shaped and exports from Pfizer plans in the EU are suddenly halted.

The UK does still have some control. They could opt to store all Pfizer they have left and just use AZN for the next couple of months. That it suboptimal, but one potential approach.

I don't follow your reasoning. Assuming that the current limiting factor in the rate of vaccinations is the rate of supply of both the AZ and Pfizer vaccines, you might just as well start giving the 2nd jabs now rather than reduce the rate of vaccination while stocks of the Pfizer vaccine are left in storage.

Luckyguy1983 said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Sounds good to me. Perhaps combined with giving ROI more of a direct helping hand as part of the CTA - bearing in mind that their share of the additional vaccines given to the EU will be very small.

Time to be nice and nasty. Start by helping Eire, Gibraltar, Malta and Cyprus. Then the Eastern Europeans who are increasingly fed up with the EU. Get help to Spain and Portugal and break down the barriers to Brits retiring there. We need to be friendly but self-interested. The Tories should be good at that.

Flatlander said:

noneoftheabove said:

Flatlander said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Family member told me they wouldn't take a Johnson jab if offered, given the 66% effectiveness. Hope that is not common, albeit it'll be some time before it occurs.

I think the government do need to a better job of communicating all these vaccines have an incredible high level of protect against serious illness. I don't want Covid, but if i got a bad flu for a week, that isn't the same as being in ICU because I didn't get a jab because it only stopped me getting covid with 66% efficacy.

J&J wasn't 100% (or very close) at stopping serious illness though, unlike AZN. It was 85% I think?

I suspect it will be turned into a two dose jab and will then be more or less equivalent to AZN given the technology is similar. Isn't there a trial being run to that effect?

Still, I wouldn't turn it down.

100% against hospitalisation still, so the severe disease was presumably not of the life threatening or permanent life changing type.

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial#:~:text=The vaccine candidate was 85,participants reported after day 49.

"The vaccine candidate was 85 percent effective in preventing severe disease across all regions studied, [i] 28 days after vaccination in all adults 18 years and older. Efficacy against severe disease increased over time with no cases in vaccinated participants reported after day 49.

The Janssen COVID-19 vaccine candidate demonstrated complete protection against COVID-related hospitalization and death, 28 days post-vaccination. There was a clear effect of the vaccine on COVID-19 cases requiring medical intervention (hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), with no reported cases among participants who had received the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine, 28 days post-vaccination."

Ah, many thanks, I missed that. "Severe disease" is a bit ambiguous and I assumed it meant hospital.

If the others are using the same definition and severe disease also covers housebound illnesses as well as hospitalisation it is truly remarkable that the vaccines are nearly all completely effective and created so quickly! Many thanks to the experts!

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

Family member told me they wouldn't take a Johnson jab if offered, given the 66% effectiveness. Hope that is not common, albeit it'll be some time before it occurs.

Did you tell them it's almost completely effective at preventing serious illness?

Yep to be honest I don't care if I get it if it means I feel rough for a couple of days but don't get seriously ill. Whilst I would prefer a jab that stops any chance (I know there aren't any) a jab that keeps me out of hospital sounds good enough for me.

With all of the alarm about reinfection from Covid-19 I was reassured by an article I read in Nature today explaining to my unscientific mind that reinfection is not surprising, we can catch the coronavirus that causes a common cold over and over, but the body becomes better and better at dealing with it so over time one becomes asymptomatic, even if total immunity wanes. The article said that Covid-19 seems unexceptional for a coronavirus in that regard. People will probably be able to catch it twice but the second time the system knows what to do and knocks it on the head much quicker. I found that reassuring. Clearly don’t want to get it before I’m vaccinated some time in the Autumn but it bodes well for those that have and recovered. I am guessing similar principles apply to a vaccine.

Charles said:

Stocky said:

Hate to trump OGH on the "medical procedures of the day" front but I`ve spent this afternoon in Oxford Hospital with a surgeon poking around in my right eyeball. It was like a horror film. Suspected retinal detachment - luckily was "just" a tear with a blood hemorrhage complication.

What a fun week I`ve had!

I should have sought attention a week earlier but Covid blah blah.

I can get you into see Rob Maclaren if you need - he still practices down at Nuffield. Lovely guy for an extraordinary scientist - world specialist in retinas

Thanks for that offer @Charles - I`ve made a note of his name. At the moment I`m Ok I think but I`ll let you know if this changes.

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Family member told me they wouldn't take a Johnson jab if offered, given the 66% effectiveness. Hope that is not common, albeit it'll be some time before it occurs.

I think the government do need to a better job of communicating all these vaccines have an incredible high level of protect against serious illness. I don't want Covid, but if i got a bad flu for a week, that isn't the same as being in ICU because I didn't get a jab because it only stopped me getting covid with 66% efficacy.

Surely the point of the BBC is that it is objective and independent and we can rely on it to be trustworthy in loudly and regularly pointing out that all these vaccines have a high reliability. Surely, heaven forbid, it would soft peddle the issue because of base political prejudice?

Is somebody reading PB...waves...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9205287/Send-surplus-jabs-Republic-Ireland-help-Irish-neighbours-Boris-Johnson-urged.html

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Fantastic solution.

This week would have gone much smoother for Brussels if UVDL had the decency to just call up Boris and say "we are struggling, please is there any way you can help" rather than making it a fight.

Razedabode said:

So.. the question I want to know is..

Is Viking from the masked singer Morton Harket from A-Ha?

I had some a-ha on earlier (don't ask), but I don't have a TV to check against.

Has he walked off the show and come back again 3 times?

Fishing said:

FPT:

Omnium said:

Kwarteng on R4 doing very well. I don't see him as a future leader, but this sort of good performance isn't so common.

I used to know him fairly well many years ago, and I've dealt with Johnson briefly professionally. I'd say Kwasi is much more Prime Ministerial material than Boris, but would have less of an appeal to the Red Wall types.

Personal anecdote - Kwasi and I last met in the British Library in late '09 or early '10. Back then, it still looked more than likely that Cameron would get an overall majority. I said they would. He demurred. History has spoken and he was right.

Kwasi is an old friend of mine from college, and we were both fund managers in the Mayfair / St James's part of London for a decade.

He's a very bright and capable guy. And I hope he ascends to the very highest office in the land.

This'll help. UK doing just under half Europe's vaccinations:

https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

What do you do when the Eu doesn’t actually pay?

Or accuses the U.K. of charging more than they paid for the vaccines?

The UK should eBay its extra doses.

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Yes far better to give africa and the middle east vaccines as soon as possible...if they have to wait on the eu they might get them next century

AlastairMeeks said:

Evening all. To answer the anxious concerns expressed last night by those who couldn’t form an opinion about the EU’s behaviour without my guidance, the Meeks view is that the EU made complete idiots of themselves.

Still, they managed to unite the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems, Sinn Fein, the DUP and the Irish government. So you have to congratulate them on that unprecedented achievement.

What you think, or what I think, does not count.
What counts is what companies, with investment money to place, actually think and then where they put it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Well done Mike.
My wife is 75 and am hopeful for a date soon. We live in Wales btw.

Your wife allows you to date? Lucky boy.

Is this normal in Wales?

From attending England v. Wales rugby matches, dating sheep in Wales is normal.

Here's a pinup for you in case you are feeling jealous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Mountain_sheep#/media/File:White_Welsh_Mountain_sheep.jpg

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Well done Mike.
My wife is 75 and am hopeful for a date soon. We live in Wales btw.

Your wife allows you to date? Lucky boy.

Is this normal in Wales?

From attending England v. Wales rugby matches, dating sheep in Wales is normal.

Here's a pinup for you in case you are feeling jealous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Mountain_sheep#/media/File:White_Welsh_Mountain_sheep.jpg

Can baaly resist her.

Stocky said:

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Well done Mike.
My wife is 75 and am hopeful for a date soon. We live in Wales btw.

Your wife allows you to date? Lucky boy.

Is this normal in Wales?

From attending England v. Wales rugby matches, dating sheep in Wales is normal.

Here's a pinup for you in case you are feeling jealous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Mountain_sheep#/media/File:White_Welsh_Mountain_sheep.jpg

Can baaly resist her.

Don't know. I think she's a bit meh.

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Fantastic solution.

This week would have gone much smoother for Brussels if UVDL had the decency to just call up Boris and say "we are struggling, please is there any way you can help" rather than making it a fight.

IMO UK needs an emergency COVID summit with EU, where they all come out with intent to avoid further vaccine nationalism (which is easy to say, so they will need to share some bullet points of what it means in practice).

Surely you agree it’s better to try to manufacture a way forward of cooperation here, than naturally drift into something worse?

Any sense after this of winners and losers could set the mood for decades to come. And absolutely none of us want that to happen do we?

I think it's pretty clear where you'd have stood on what to do about Germany c.1939.

alex_ said:

Andy_JS said:

Latest data.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

To what extent are figures on vaccinations slightly skewed by differing strategy over approach to the second booster jab?

Exactly.

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Covid: EU 'made a mistake' over vaccines, Gove says
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55873288

I am genuinely impressed that the government didn't go all Daily Mail over the vaccine dispute with the EU. They appear to have gone behind the scenes, used diplomacy and resolved the issue.

The EU clearly paniced and lashed out stupidly and made mistakes. However within 48 hours cooler heads prevailed and they u-turned on vaccine exports and on the NI border issue and we are back to where we were mid-week.

In six months time, when the EU catches up with vaccinations, this whole episode will be seen as more of a storm in a tea cup rather than the cataclysmic event some of our more excitable posters seem to see it as.

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Fantastic solution.

This week would have gone much smoother for Brussels if UVDL had the decency to just call up Boris and say "we are struggling, please is there any way you can help" rather than making it a fight.

WTF? You guys live in a different world. I wonder if Sikandar Kemal has ever phoned anyone except to try and convince Darius Guppy not to beat up a journalist, but that if he does- though he shouldn´t- it would be kinda, sorta OK, but not really.

Tory &%#4

Carnyx said:

alex_ said:

Andy_JS said:

Latest data.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

To what extent are figures on vaccinations slightly skewed by differing strategy over approach to the second booster jab?

Exactly.

What's exactly about it? At the very most you could double the other tallies. And that doesn't account for AZN where a longer interval is preferred anyway.

Congrats to OGH - my parents got done last week.

Question is whose nanochips are best - Bill Gates, Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos?

alex_ said:

Andy_JS said:

Latest data.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

To what extent are figures on vaccinations slightly skewed by differing strategy over approach to the second booster jab?

Good question, although since our mass accelation really took off around early mid January, in our case most would not have been due their second jab yet even without the delayed booster? Particularly as AZ was always supposed to be on that schedule?

I believe Denmark are doing something similar, which is probably why they are also high in the table for the EU?

MarqueeMark said:

Fenman said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Sounds good to me. Perhaps combined with giving ROI more of a direct helping hand as part of the CTA - bearing in mind that their share of the additional vaccines given to the EU will be very small.

Time to be nice and nasty. Start by helping Eire, Gibraltar, Malta and Cyprus. Then the Eastern Europeans who are increasingly fed up with the EU. Get help to Spain and Portugal and break down the barriers to Brits retiring there. We need to be friendly but self-interested. The Tories should be good at that.

We have never been to war with Portugal. A loyal friend. We need to remember that - and come to their aid.

I joked a few days ago that, if only we could find about 20 million vaccines down the back of a sofa, we could rescue Portugal, form a closed bubble with them and then send them so many desperate, sun-starved, pasty British holidaymakers that we could rescue much of their tourist industry. It's quite impossible and silly, of course, but I get where you're coming from.

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll help. UK doing just under half Europe's vaccinations:

https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/

I suppose the good news is if the big nations can do 100k a day while supplies are very constrained they should be well placed to ramp that up. If that is not an unusual daily figure for Italy then they seem to have blown through everything they had prior to the delays in delivery.

Since in theory all the EU countries should have the same supply some are clearly doing a lot better than others. Among the bigger countries Spain (3.15). Italy (3.0) and Germany (2.7) are well ahead of France (1.99) and the Netherlands (1.32).

Cicero said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Fantastic solution.

This week would have gone much smoother for Brussels if UVDL had the decency to just call up Boris and say "we are struggling, please is there any way you can help" rather than making it a fight.

WTF? You guys live in a different world. I wonder if Sikandar Kemal has ever phoned anyone except to try and convince Darius Guppy not to beat up a journalist, but that if he does- though he shouldn´t- it would be kinda, sorta OK, but not really.

Tory &%#4

You ok hun?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1355606835873669126?s=19

That couldn't possibly be a vaccine bounce, could it? Nah, surely not.

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3235887#Comment_3235887

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

This'll help. UK doing just under half Europe's vaccinations:

https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/

I suppose the good news is if the big nations can do 100k a day while supplies are very constrained they should be well placed to ramp that up. If that is not an unusual daily figure for Italy then they seem to have blown through everything they had prior to the delays in delivery.

Since in theory all the EU countries should have the same supply some are clearly doing a lot better than others. Among the bigger countries Spain (3.15). Italy (3.0) and Germany (2.7) are well ahead of France (1.99) and the Netherlands (1.32).

The Dutch don't even seem to be trying. A small country with a dense population should be fairly easy to vaccinate.

The dense ones tend to be more susceptible to anti vaccination propaganda

BluestBlue said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1355606835873669126?s=19

That couldn't possibly be a vaccine bounce, could it? Nah, surely not.

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3235887#Comment_3235887

And too early for the ramifications of the last 24 hours with the EU

BluestBlue said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1355606835873669126?s=19

That couldn't possibly be a vaccine bounce, could it? Nah, surely not.

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3235887#Comment_3235887

Conservative lead will go higher yet, before it falls back when the reality of horrendous economic news catches up with us.

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

gealbhan said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission

"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55872763

It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.

Yes. But very much yesterday’s news now. Now it’s the UK under pressure and it’s only going to get worse.

“The World Health Organization has urged the UK to pause its vaccination programme after vulnerable groups have received their jabs to help ensure the global rollout of doses is fair.
the WHO said countries should be aiming for 2bn doses to be “fairly distributed” around the world by the end of 2021.
A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, said she wanted to appeal to people in the UK, telling them: “You can wait” because ensuring equitable global distribution is “clearly morally the right thing to do”.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/30/who-urges-britain-to-pause-covid-jabs-after-treating-vulnerable

WHO can say COVID vaccine should be a global business, but it seems to be getting regionalised.

They're absolutely stark raving bonkers.

The solution is not everyone waits for Buggins Turn. The solution is to get as much production as possible.

In the long run yes, but that takes time. Anyway, the issue is moot because it's politically impossible for the Government simply to get down as far as the 50 year olds and then let a load of young people come down with Long Covid and/or keep some kind of lockdown lite going for an extra year.

I suppose it's not unconceivable that the Government might be able to get away with slowing down a bit, but most likely they'll simply try to get everyone done as soon as possible, then look to see what they have available to give away.

No it doesn't take time, it takes money.

We've gotten vaccine production up and running in a matter of months. The technology is done and ready, its just a case of getting on with it. With investment its possible to get more production out within a matter of months, not years.

https://twitter.com/EuRollout/status/1355253005663277060

Floater said:

https://twitter.com/EuRollout/status/1355557896554209280

That twitter account is very naughty....

alex_ said:

Pagan2 said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Yes far better to give africa and the middle east vaccines as soon as possible...if they have to wait on the eu they might get them next century

"Giving" vaccines to "africa" is hardly a simple logistical task though. If anything the benefit will be far more about setting up the distribution chains rather than the actual vaccinations. Shouldn't really completely ignore that COVID arguably isn't quite as relatively* dangerous to many african countries

*given that it is most dangerous in elderly people and compared to all the other diseases that are just as high priority.

Well if we can help with the program should do that too. I also didnt say vaccinations I said vaccines. Many african and mid east countries will be capable of their own distribution when they have a few million vials. Those that can't we can help

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Fantastic solution.

This week would have gone much smoother for Brussels if UVDL had the decency to just call up Boris and say "we are struggling, please is there any way you can help" rather than making it a fight.

Yes, being confrontational was never going to work. They have got no leverage over us.

https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1355599760846184455?s=20

Cicero said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

I think I have a way out of this diplomatic spat for the EU and UK.

Clearly the EU needs many millions more vaccines in the near term, however there is pressure on the UK to start supplying it's spare doses from April onwards to developing nations and let the EU fend for itself because it's rich and can afford to build output.

There's a very good chance that from April we won't need ~20m Pfizer doses or ~50m AZ doses. That would be an invaluable boost to the European vaccination drive. We're going to be covered by supplies from Novavax and Moderna and long term we'll have J&J (up to 52m) + Valneva (60m) available for mutations.

The way out of this is to offer the EU our spare capacity on the basis that it funds COVAX to the same level we have. Our funding is equivalent of €4.5bn scaled to the EU vs ~€750m it has currently pledged via EU and national governments. The EU won't have anywhere it can get 70m vaccine doses from in the short term from April onwards and it will make a big difference to them and making our gift to them contingent on them properly funding COVAX makes a much, much bigger difference to developing nations than 70m doses ever could as it could be used to purchase 1.5bn additional doses of AZ vaccine or 1bn additional Novavax doses both of which are in the CEPI programme.

This way the EU gets its doses, it gets its "win" against the UK by getting UK vaccine supply it covets and the developing world gets funding for 1-1.5bn additional doses it doesn't currently have.

Anyone see any downsides?

Fantastic solution.

This week would have gone much smoother for Brussels if UVDL had the decency to just call up Boris and say "we are struggling, please is there any way you can help" rather than making it a fight.

WTF? You guys live in a different world. I wonder if Sikandar Kemal has ever phoned anyone except to try and convince Darius Guppy not to beat up a journalist, but that if he does- though he shouldn´t- it would be kinda, sorta OK, but not really.

Tory &%#4

Lol. Get some help mate.

kle4 said:

gealbhan said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - EU 'fiasco' on N Ireland heaps pressure on Commission

"It's like watching a car crash in slow motion," one irate EU diplomat told me. "President von der Leyen is a medical doctor. She wanted to take over the mass purchase of vaccines for all the EU - as a high-profile exercise. Normally health issues are dealt with nationally. This hasn't been a great advertisement for handing over powers to Brussels. I think that's the lesson member states will take away from this."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55872763

It's just amazing/bonkers that Ireland wasn't involved, or even told, of the upcoming decision.

Yes. But very much yesterday’s news now. Now it’s the UK under pressure and it’s only going to get worse.

“The World Health Organization has urged the UK to pause its vaccination programme after vulnerable groups have received their jabs to help ensure the global rollout of doses is fair.
the WHO said countries should be aiming for 2bn doses to be “fairly distributed” around the world by the end of 2021.
A WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, said she wanted to appeal to people in the UK, telling them: “You can wait” because ensuring equitable global distribution is “clearly morally the right thing to do”.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/30/who-urges-britain-to-pause-covid-jabs-after-treating-vulnerable

WHO can say COVID vaccine should be a global business, but it seems to be getting regionalised.

It's going to be a tough sell to the world for nations to pause their programmes when only the most vulnerable are done.

Realistically, ensuring the passing around of surplus supplies to help those with not enough or none seems much more achievable.

Besides who is going to listen to WHO now, they also haven't had a good pandemic

Pagan2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Italy recommends Astra Zeneca "preferentially 55 & under":

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-vaccine-idUKKBN29Z0NA?taid=6015b73d7f7681000102e4c8&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

At this rate, some EU countries will only be using it on 18-21 year olds.

The eu and some european governments seem to have come down with a dose of insanity.

I also wont be surprised that after this crisis is in the past we will get the EU arguing that the reason it failed is that the eu doesn't have competence over health matters so should have from now on

The answer is always "more Europe".....

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1355571150882037765?s=20

They should retriple their efforts. Lazy.