politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB gathering – Ilkley, Yorkshire: Monday July 7th 2014 star

As has been mentioned several times on the site the next PB get-together will be at the Flying Duck pub in the heart of Ilkley in Yorkshire. It’s in the town centre not far from the station. At that time of the evening on a Monday night it should be reasonably quiet.
Comments
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Do PBers bring their own clogs, cloth caps and whippets or are they provided ?0
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FPT
The secondary target?Neil said:
I would like to see you apply your intellectual self-confidence to Osborne's other (more objective) fiscal target, Avery.AveryLP said:
Intellectual self-confidence is a left-wing concept, Neil.Neil said:
Oh, Avery!AveryLP said:
Osborne's 2010 financial projections have turned out to be remarkably accurate to date
You should have the intellectual confidence to defend Osborne's record for what it is. Throwing this kind of claim into the mix makes it seem like you think what he actually managed wasnt that impressive.
Although the OBR are still predicting (March 2014 EFO) that Osborne will miss the secondary target by a year, I think there is a reasonable chance (say 40%) that he will make it.
See the current trend. This looks very much as if the ratio is topping out at the moment. It won't require much additional GDP growth over latest OBR forecast (which was conservatively estimating 0.5% growth per quarter for this fiscal year) or much improvement in receipts affecting PSND ex for the target to be met this fiscal year.Public sector net debt
The problem however is that it is all change in debt presentation from September 2014 onwards when ESA2010 and other major changes are due to be implemented by the ONS. Under the new methods PSNB ex is due to rise around £120 bn, so by the time of the GE this target may be lost in translation.
as a percentage of GDP
at market prices
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
/11 /12 /13 /14 /15
April 56.5 65.9 70.1 73.8 75.7
May 57.2 66.4 70.4 74.1 76.1
June 58.6 67.7 71.8 74.8 ..
July 60.4 67.2 71.2 74.1 ..
August 60.8 68.1 71.6 73.8 ..
September 62.3 68.5 72.8 74.6 ..
October 62.4 68.3 72.8 74.1 ..
November 63.4 68.9 73.5 74.7 ..
December 65.0 70.5 74.8 75.8 ..
January 64.0 69.2 73.0 74.7 ..
February 64.2 69.5 72.9 74.8 ..
March 65.9 71.2 74.2 76.1 ..0 -
The day after the TdF leaves Yorkshire..0
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I plan to attend, I have a new suit and shoes I want to début.0
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Mike - it looks a most attractive venue, but then Ilkley is a most attractive town.0
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Flat caps and whippets are provided, but only if you can sound like a proper Yorkshireman.JackW said:Do PBers bring their own clogs, cloth caps and whippets or are they provided ?
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"At that time of the evening on a Monday night it should be reasonably quiet."
Oh dear. The regulars are in for a shock.0 -
Lord help Ilkley !!TheScreamingEagles said:I plan to attend, I have a new suit and shoes I want to début.
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The Flying Duck looks charming and by all accounts is top rated for their selection of traditional Yorkshire Dales real ale. – I hope the gathering doesn’t lower the tone…! ; -)0
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For anyone interested in the Tour de France and lives around Sheffield, at Meadowhall, they have a display and mini shop commemorating the Grand Depart.
Is downstairs near the Ladbrokes and o2 shop, near t'statues0 -
I would recommend "American Werewolf in London" to all those planning to attend - particularly the first 30 mins.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
What the feck did Matt Prior just do then?0
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How is everyone doing in the test
Have £30 of green on the Lanka at the moment. Fiver, £13 red Eng, Draw respectively0 -
Behave you, we're more Royston Vasey.TGOHF said:
I would recommend "American Werewolf in London" to all those planning to attend - particularly the first 30 mins.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@THescreamingEagles How will you be getting there out of interest ?0
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Car, I'm staying in Leeds on the Monday night.Pulpstar said:@THescreamingEagles How will you be getting there out of interest ?
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In the 1960s my brother used to get his speakers from the Wharfdale Wireless Works.0
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Heather Watson is 3-0 down at the start of her semi-final against Madison Keys at Eastbourne.0
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2 in 2 balls for England at Headingley.0
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FPT @NickPalmer
I remember some years ago staying at the Hotel Marina in Denmark, which turned out to be where the Danish national team (then very successful) were temporarily based. My wife was alarmed, fearing that the night would be filled with riotous parties, etc. We didn't hear a sound, and the only sign of their presence was that all the copies of the broadsheet newspapers had been taken next morning. My wife told the receptionist that she was relieved - the receptionist looked bemused, and said that surely the team was just behaving normally, like any other guests.
We flew to LA last year with Spurs - they were perfectly charming and nice, albeit (accordingly to my wife!) a little over manicured...
Very considerate fellow passengers - the coaches entertained my 18 month old daughter by pulling faces at her for much of the flight0 -
Italy 1.59
Costa Rica 7.2
Draw 4.20 -
But you can't ask for them directly. You just have to go up to the barman and use your broadest Tyke accent to order a beer and comment on how the weather is.TheScreamingEagles said:
Flat caps and whippets are provided, but only if you can sound like a proper Yorkshireman.JackW said:Do PBers bring their own clogs, cloth caps and whippets or are they provided ?
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Don't leave us hanging!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Good afternoon all and I ask myself what wrong has Ilkley done to deserve being descended upon by a strange bunch of folks who would bet on their granny winning a game of shove penny!0
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Pretty Southern Lady: You're accent is funny, you're not from round here are you?Socrates said:
Don't leave us hanging!TheScreamingEagles said:
Me: I grew up in Sheffield
PSL: That's Yorkshire?
Me: Yes, have you got any Yorkshire in you ?
PSL: No
Me: Well would you like some Yorkshire in you ?
It's a miracle I'm not assaulted more often.0 -
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How long is the train journey from Ilkley to Bournemouth? I'm asking for a friend.0
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Arf. ; )Neil said:How long is the train journey from Ilkley to Bournemouth? I'm asking for a friend.
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Quick but important correction. It is Public Sector Net Debt (excluding financial interventions) not Borrowing which is due to rise by £120 bn in Septenber 2014.AveryLP said:FPT
The secondary target?Neil said:
I would like to see you apply your intellectual self-confidence to Osborne's other (more objective) fiscal target, Avery.AveryLP said:
Intellectual self-confidence is a left-wing concept, Neil.Neil said:
Oh, Avery!AveryLP said:
Osborne's 2010 financial projections have turned out to be remarkably accurate to date
You should have the intellectual confidence to defend Osborne's record for what it is. Throwing this kind of claim into the mix makes it seem like you think what he actually managed wasnt that impressive.
[...]
The problem however is that it is all change in debt presentation from September 2014 onwards when ESA2010 and other major changes are due to be implemented by the ONS. Under the new methods PSNB ex is due to rise around £120 bn, so by the time of the GE this target may be lost in translation.
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About 4 to 6 hrs from Leeds, just one connection.Neil said:How long is the train journey from Ilkley to Bournemouth? I'm asking for a friend.
Leeds to Ilkley is about 30mins.
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Jeremy Vine @theJeremyVine 35m
Elderly lady rings @BBCRadio2 upset about #England, “but pleased as a Liverpool fan because it shows Gerrard & Suarez working well together”
Enjoy the drinks at Ilkley - I hope the beer is good.0 -
Sack Roy
The Sun - Football @TheSunFootball 1m
Well that backfired, Roy.
Suarez: "It wasn’t revenge but in England they talked about the injury and the coach had words that annoyed (me)"0 -
Luis Suarez nearly ended up being coached by Roy, Roy was sacked by Liverpool at the start of January 2011, and we signed Suarez at the end of January 2011.0
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Fieldwork is a over week old
Voting intentions poll shows LAB 35%, CON 29%, UKIP 23%, LIB DEM 6%, OTHER 8%
A new TNS voting intentions poll shows Labour would get 35% of the vote in a General Election - 6 percentage points ahead of the Conservative Party (29%).
Support for UKIP is high (23%) following their success at the European Elections. UKIP’s challenge may be sustaining this support as a General Election approaches and issues other than Europe become part of the political debate.
The Liberal Democrats have a 6% share, similar to the vote they achieved in the recent European Elections, which would place them in a distant fourth place at a General Election.
http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/labour-lead-conservative-party-six-points0 -
Have you seen Mark Lawrenson's Mirror article on the 16th ?TheScreamingEagles said:Sack Roy
The Sun - Football @TheSunFootball 1m
Well that backfired, Roy.
Suarez: "It wasn’t revenge but in England they talked about the injury and the coach had words that annoyed (me)"0 -
BBC reporting now reduced to asking people on a train their political opinions:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-278712310 -
Naomi Newstead selected for the Conservatives in Camberwell & Peckham:
twitter.com/Cam_PeckhamCA/status/479345707435163648/photo/10 -
TNS Changes since their last poll in Nov 2013
Lab minus 3, Con minus 1, LD minus 2, UKIP plus 110 -
An necessary post, so deleted.
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Those figures look remarkably like the unweighted raw figures of an average Populus.TheScreamingEagles said:TNS Changes since their last poll in Nov 2013
Lab minus 3, Con minus 1, LD minus 2, UKIP plus 110 -
NoPulpstar said:
Have you seen Mark Lawrenson's Mirror article on the 16th ?TheScreamingEagles said:Sack Roy
The Sun - Football @TheSunFootball 1m
Well that backfired, Roy.
Suarez: "It wasn’t revenge but in England they talked about the injury and the coach had words that annoyed (me)"0 -
I'm advising JohnO to sit this one out. God knows where he'd end up.HurstLlama said:
About six hours, prices (one way) seem to vary between £43 and £128 for no obvious reason.Neil said:How long is the train journey from Ilkley to Bournemouth? I'm asking for a friend.
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Will you be coming to Ilkley, we could look after JohnONeil said:
I'm advising JohnO to sit this one out. God knows where he'd end up.HurstLlama said:
About six hours, prices (one way) seem to vary between £43 and £128 for no obvious reason.Neil said:How long is the train journey from Ilkley to Bournemouth? I'm asking for a friend.
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http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2014/luis-suarez-hasnt-played-football-3703933TheScreamingEagles said:
NoPulpstar said:
Have you seen Mark Lawrenson's Mirror article on the 16th ?TheScreamingEagles said:Sack Roy
The Sun - Football @TheSunFootball 1m
Well that backfired, Roy.
Suarez: "It wasn’t revenge but in England they talked about the injury and the coach had words that annoyed (me)"
It's even better than I thought when I first pointed it out on the 18th as a potential hostage to fortune:
"But a few of their players are either not good enough or look as though their best years are now behind them."
*Cough
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Christ, that has to be the worst predictive article since Sion Simon's magnum opus.Pulpstar said:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2014/luis-suarez-hasnt-played-football-3703933TheScreamingEagles said:
NoPulpstar said:
Have you seen Mark Lawrenson's Mirror article on the 16th ?TheScreamingEagles said:Sack Roy
The Sun - Football @TheSunFootball 1m
Well that backfired, Roy.
Suarez: "It wasn’t revenge but in England they talked about the injury and the coach had words that annoyed (me)"0 -
Shame it's in an area of the country I cannot easily get to0
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With this in it?! [remove space in https - not sure how to quote it otherwise without the pic coming up]TheScreamingEagles said:
htt ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Gk3emWTm4
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You can make a link with a simple bit of HTML code.Carnyx said:
With this in it?! [remove space in https - not sure how to quote it otherwise without the pic coming up]TheScreamingEagles said:
htt ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Gk3emWTm4
Quote my post to see the code used.0 -
"Ofsted chief attacks 'mediocrity and failure' in comprehensives"
"Ofsted: state school pupils 'under-represented' in top sport"
Two headlines from this afternoon's Telegraph. Clearly there can't be a connection between them.0 -
Just delete the https://Carnyx said:
With this in it?! [remove space in https - not sure how to quote it otherwise without the pic coming up]TheScreamingEagles said:
htt ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Gk3emWTm40 -
WRT football straw clutching.
I seem to remember our needing Israel to win in unlikely circumstances against Russia and their doing so, only for us to lose at home to Croatia and go out! What price two Italian wins and our then failing to beat the Costa Ricans?
That gloomy prospect notwithstanding, every Englishman will be a honorary Italian tonight. If the Azzuri do this business, you have to say that England have a chance.0 -
That featured Rik Mayall (RIP).TGOHF said:I would recommend "American Werewolf in London" to all those planning to attend - particularly the first 30 mins.
http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/07FdVcspOfQ/maxresdefault.jpg0 -
I was in Munster earlier this week.... And Visbek the week before...Neil said:@TSE
Unfortunately for me I will be kicking my heels in the godforsaken town of Frankfurt on that date. There are few places on this earth as boring as Frankfurt.
If you look at wikipedia's history for Visbek, nothing of note has happened since AD855. At least Munster had a little rebellion in the 1500s...0 -
OblitusSumMe said:
You can make a link with a simple bit of HTML code.Carnyx said:
With this in it?! [remove space in https - not sure how to quote it otherwise without the pic coming up]TheScreamingEagles said:
htt ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Gk3emWTm4
Quote my post to see the code used.TheScreamingEagles said:
Just delete the https://Carnyx said:
With this in it?! [remove space in https - not sure how to quote it otherwise without the pic coming up]TheScreamingEagles said:
htt ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Gk3emWTm4
Ah! Thanks to you both.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Just checking up on P2. Nothing too exciting, though mildly surprised Alonso was third again.0 -
Do you mean Münster?Charles said:
I was in Munster earlier this week.... And Visbek the week before...Neil said:@TSE
Unfortunately for me I will be kicking my heels in the godforsaken town of Frankfurt on that date. There are few places on this earth as boring as Frankfurt.
If you look at wikipedia's history for Visbek, nothing of note has happened since AD855. At least Munster had a little rebellion in the 1500s...
Both Munster and Münster appear to have had rebellions in the 1500s, but I would be surprised at anyone saying that Munster was a boring place.0 -
MünsterOblitusSumMe said:
Do you mean Münster?Charles said:
I was in Munster earlier this week.... And Visbek the week before...Neil said:@TSE
Unfortunately for me I will be kicking my heels in the godforsaken town of Frankfurt on that date. There are few places on this earth as boring as Frankfurt.
If you look at wikipedia's history for Visbek, nothing of note has happened since AD855. At least Munster had a little rebellion in the 1500s...
Both Munster and Münster appear to have had rebellions in the 1500s, but I would be surprised at anyone saying that Munster was a boring place.
Until now, I didn't know how to do ulmauts on PB...
I spend far too much of my time in rural Germany.
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Well once again I join the ranks of the unemployed having been made redundant
at least I get a decent pay off and hopefully the market is sufficiently buoyant to locate alternate employment rapidly. Bit of a buggeration though.
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"At risk" myself at the moment, so I know how you feel!ToryJim said:Well once again I join the ranks of the unemployed having been made redundant
at least I get a decent pay off and hopefully the market is sufficiently buoyant to locate alternate employment rapidly. Bit of a buggeration though.
Good luck!0 -
Mr. Jim, my heartfelt sympathies. Whilst not unemployed, things are tight, so I appreciate how difficult things may be for you.0
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Eek, I'd have been fine if I'd have been willing to relocate to Newcastle but I wasn't.Charles said:
"At risk" myself at the moment, so I know how you feel!ToryJim said:Well once again I join the ranks of the unemployed having been made redundant
at least I get a decent pay off and hopefully the market is sufficiently buoyant to locate alternate employment rapidly. Bit of a buggeration though.
Good luck!0 -
Why is Frankfurt so boring? I've often thought of going there but may have to reconsider.0
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Thanks Mr Dancer, I'd suspected for a while just timing was more imminent than I realised. Anyway I have a number of plans so who knows.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, my heartfelt sympathies. Whilst not unemployed, things are tight, so I appreciate how difficult things may be for you.
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Neil Hamilton says he intends to stand for UKIP at GE2015. No seats mentioned, but maybe he might choose his old seat of Tatton where George Osborne is MP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10835981/Neil-Hamilton-plots-return-to-Commons-as-MP-in-2015.html0 -
182-5 interesting test match. I should have laid the draw more at 3.5 though.0
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Lots of Euro-updates in the weekly news bulletin here:
http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8f42af8d26b382b0bcc4930b2&id=8a0db25b2b&e=ae7f92d13c0 -
George Osborne couldn't hope for anything better tbh.AndyJS said:Neil Hamilton says he intends to stand for UKIP at GE2015. No seats mentioned, but maybe he might choose his old seat of Tatton where George Osborne is MP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10835981/Neil-Hamilton-plots-return-to-Commons-as-MP-in-2015.html
Hamilton would get thrashed, I've driven through Tatton and it strikes me as the sort of place where UKIP would bomb. Add in Hamilton and he might be struggling to beat the Lib Dems there.0 -
Nasty, sleazy UKIP on the rise?AndyJS said:Neil Hamilton says he intends to stand for UKIP at GE2015. No seats mentioned, but maybe he might choose his old seat of Tatton where George Osborne is MP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10835981/Neil-Hamilton-plots-return-to-Commons-as-MP-in-2015.html0 -
Southern Germany is great, Stuttgart, the Black Forest, Fussen http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuschwanstein_Castle (off on holiday there in July)Socrates said:0 -
F1: just seen a Benson tweet. Apparently race simulation average times were 0.04s different between the Mercedes drivers, and the best of the rest were nearly a second slower.
Should take such numbers with a pinch of salt, but does look very much like a Silver Arrow duel.0 -
A better choice for Hamilton might be Carmarthen where he grew up, according to Wikipedia.0
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Looks like Sweden is benefiting from diversity and multiculturalism as much as we are:
http://www.thelocal.se/20140620/swedish-school-class-genitally-mutilated0 -
Relocate to Newcastle or lose your job. Tricky. Good luck with finding a new position and chin up in the meantime.ToryJim said:
Eek, I'd have been fine if I'd have been willing to relocate to Newcastle but I wasn't.Charles said:
"At risk" myself at the moment, so I know how you feel!ToryJim said:Well once again I join the ranks of the unemployed having been made redundant
at least I get a decent pay off and hopefully the market is sufficiently buoyant to locate alternate employment rapidly. Bit of a buggeration though.
Good luck!
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I have to relocate to Frankfurt!!ToryJim said:
Eek, I'd have been fine if I'd have been willing to relocate to Newcastle but I wasn't.Charles said:
"At risk" myself at the moment, so I know how you feel!ToryJim said:Well once again I join the ranks of the unemployed having been made redundant
at least I get a decent pay off and hopefully the market is sufficiently buoyant to locate alternate employment rapidly. Bit of a buggeration though.
Good luck!0 -
Hmm. Massa's odds to be winner without Hamilton/Rosberg have lengthened from 9 to 10. I think that's a mistake from Ladbrokes, but there we are.0
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Let nobody say David Cameron doesn't do his bit in marginals - here he is with all of 9 Broxtowe residents, Fighting The Pothole Menace:
http://bramcotetoday.org.uk/2014/06/20/broxtowe-residents-meet-the-prime-minister-to-talk-about-potholes-in-their-area/0 -
Dear God. What were the Geneva conventions for if not to outlaw such barbarity?Charles said:
I have to relocate to Frankfurt!!ToryJim said:
Eek, I'd have been fine if I'd have been willing to relocate to Newcastle but I wasn't.Charles said:
"At risk" myself at the moment, so I know how you feel!ToryJim said:Well once again I join the ranks of the unemployed having been made redundant
at least I get a decent pay off and hopefully the market is sufficiently buoyant to locate alternate employment rapidly. Bit of a buggeration though.
Good luck!0 -
Mr. Charles, warum nicht?
I wish more computer games came with German translations. Happens much less often these days. How else are young fellows meant to learn a Sturmgewehr is an assault rifle (from Fear Effect) or Heiligkeit means holiness, or Zelt is a tent (Shadow Hearts: Covenant)?0 -
Neil Hamilton would be bonkers to stand in Tatton.
As an ex resident of Styal I can't see UKIP doing well here and he's not popular here either.
Plus why would he want to stand against the most UK wide popular politician that is Osborne. He'd be better of standing against a toxic politician like Ed Miliband0 -
If I spoke German I'd consider it. There are worse places to end up.Charles said:
I have to relocate to Frankfurt!!ToryJim said:
Eek, I'd have been fine if I'd have been willing to relocate to Newcastle but I wasn't.Charles said:
"At risk" myself at the moment, so I know how you feel!ToryJim said:Well once again I join the ranks of the unemployed having been made redundant
at least I get a decent pay off and hopefully the market is sufficiently buoyant to locate alternate employment rapidly. Bit of a buggeration though.
Good luck!0 -
Best of luck Mr Jim0
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An in-depth preview of Portsmouth South from the ElectionData blog:
http://www.election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-constituency-of-portsmouth-south.html0 -
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23% is a stunning result for UKIP nearly a month after the Euro election.MikeK said:FPT:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 20m
New TNS-BMRB poll has
LAB 35%, CON 29%, UKIP 23%, LIB DEM 6%
Are TNS-BMRB a full member of the British Polling Council?0 -
Mr. K, I find the UKIP number somewhat difficult to believe, to be honest. I was going to write the same about the Lib Dems, but it's in line with other pollsters.0
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He sure likes to whinge.MikeK said:0 -
Mugabe backwards is 'E ba gum0
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Merkel says Council President job could go to an outsider, from a non-Euro country such as Denmark. I can think of another non-Euro country such as Denmark which happens to be in need of a lollipop.NickPalmer said:Lots of Euro-updates in the weekly news bulletin here:
http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8f42af8d26b382b0bcc4930b2&id=8a0db25b2b&e=ae7f92d13c
But they really need to send Hague or somebody serious to do it. If Cameron didn't trust Lansley with a meaningful job it's hard to believe the other 27 PMs are going to.
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