Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Niw previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like regardless AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
Pfizer delivery delays due to their factory upgrade, hopefully it will be temporary and we get back up to speed by the end of Feb.
We obviously aren't getting the many millions of AZN coming through every week though to make up any shortfall from Pfizer.There is obviously still some bottleneck in getting these 20 million doses from vat to vial.
Impossible, these shortages only effect the EU.
WHERE'S MY NVIDIA 3080.......shouts loudly and waves arms around uncontrollablly.
Nvidia 3080? not seen any in about a month - anywhere in Europe
* I have a sideline business that tracks various Amazon prices and availability and there has literally been zero 3080 stock anywhere in Europe all month.
I know hence my jokey reaction.
I was actually waiting for the 3080Ti, but that looks like it got canned. Might have to stump up the £2k for a 3090.
Based on everything we have heard about Covid, since more-or-less day one of the nightmare, that's totally unsurprising.
The number under 45 who did not have an underlying condition is even smaller, I think.
Looking at the NHS England hospital figures (and the hospital stats should cover pretty well all Covid deaths for people of working age,) the total number of people who had succumbed to Covid-19 in English hospitals, as of the most recent weekly update (21 January,) was 64,111. Of those, 4,717 (7.4% of the total) were under 60, and of that subset only 486 (0.8% of total deaths) were people under 60 and with no known comorbidity.
So, Covid can get anybody, but if you're reasonably fit and below pensionable age then you'd be extraordinarily unlucky actually to die of it.
So what’s an “underlying condition” and how many people have one or more?
Around about 40 million people in England have no morbidity according to the Kings Fund. The NHS outlines the conditions on its spreadsheets..
By December 17, there were 48 (forty-eight) healthy under 40s who had lost their lives to it in England.
1 - the definition of “healthy” is extremely picky. 2 - these are the ones that medical intervention (sometimes heroic medical intervention) saved.
Approximate numbers hospitalised against dead a few weeks back in England in one week:
Ratio between population, cases, hospitalisation, ICU, and deaths per age group:
Without the medical attention, the death tolls, ratios, and so forth would be very very different.
And presumably a large proportion of the ICU admissions ends up with long term issues due to damage to lungs and other organs.
(It also looks like there's a lot of ICU rationing going on, with very few of the 85+ and a low proportion of the 75-84 getting ICU beds.)
Not necessarily rationing. Rationing implies that very old patients are being denied treatment because there's not enough to go around. That might be happening under some circumstances, but we can't definitively conclude that just from the patterns in these charts.
Those of advanced age, particularly if they are already ill with other conditions, may also be dying before reaching ICU, or medical opinion may suggest that interventions as radical as ventilation will cause further distress whilst also being very unlikely to lead to recovery and are, consequently, not in the best interest of the patient.
Presumably they're going to have to make sure that the 2,000 VC winners weren't at all racist before they build their statues?
What I find astonishing is that thewy were so desperate to have a dogwhistle for the Brexity voters that they didn't; stop to consider that the GC holders woiuld be just as worthy of consideration as the VC holders.
I have enormous respect for all VC and GC holders, and we owe them a deep dept of gratitude. However, I am not sure about having an individual likeness of each of them dotted around the country like garden gnomes. A beautiful monument like a folly or a woodland style cascade, where the names of recipients can be added (and new ones added as they win these medals) seems more fitting.
That said, I don't really see how this is 'a slap in the face for women' either. I don't think you can slap someone by honouring someone else. I am sure most women, if asked, would be fully behind a scheme to honour the winners of the VC, rather than taking it as a personal insult.
Glasgow's VC winners are commemorated in a single monument in the Necropolis which looks out over Glasgow, quite fitting I think (there may be other individual monuments of I'm not aware).
Whats all this about VC and GC statues? What is with the weird statue fetishism?
Apparently the latest front in the culture war from the Brexit Party controlling the UKK government.
Presumably they're going to have to make sure that the 2,000 VC winners weren't at all racist before they build their statues?
What I find astonishing is that thewy were so desperate to have a dogwhistle for the Brexity voters that they didn't; stop to consider that the GC holders woiuld be just as worthy of consideration as the VC holders.
I have enormous respect for all VC and GC holders, and we owe them a deep dept of gratitude. However, I am not sure about having an individual likeness of each of them dotted around the country like garden gnomes. A beautiful monument like a folly or a woodland style cascade, where the names of recipients can be added (and new ones added as they win these medals) seems more fitting.
That said, I don't really see how this is 'a slap in the face for women' either. I don't think you can slap someone by honouring someone else. I am sure most women, if asked, would be fully behind a scheme to honour the winners of the VC, rather than taking it as a personal insult.
Glasgow's VC winners are commemorated in a single monument in the Necropolis which looks out over Glasgow, quite fitting I think (there may be other individual monuments of I'm not aware).
Whats all this about VC and GC statues? What is with the weird statue fetishism?
It's just a new thing we're trying, without precedent in the annals of Western civilization - putting up graven images of people judged worthy of public honour and respect. Don't get too excited, it'll probably never catch on.
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
Presumably they're going to have to make sure that the 2,000 VC winners weren't at all racist before they build their statues?
What I find astonishing is that thewy were so desperate to have a dogwhistle for the Brexity voters that they didn't; stop to consider that the GC holders woiuld be just as worthy of consideration as the VC holders.
I have enormous respect for all VC and GC holders, and we owe them a deep dept of gratitude. However, I am not sure about having an individual likeness of each of them dotted around the country like garden gnomes. A beautiful monument like a folly or a woodland style cascade, where the names of recipients can be added (and new ones added as they win these medals) seems more fitting.
That said, I don't really see how this is 'a slap in the face for women' either. I don't think you can slap someone by honouring someone else. I am sure most women, if asked, would be fully behind a scheme to honour the winners of the VC, rather than taking it as a personal insult.
Glasgow's VC winners are commemorated in a single monument in the Necropolis which looks out over Glasgow, quite fitting I think (there may be other individual monuments of I'm not aware).
Whats all this about VC and GC statues? What is with the weird statue fetishism?
It's just a new thing we're trying, without precedent in the annals of Western civilization - putting up statues of people judged worthy of public honour and respect. Don't get too excited, it'll probably never catch on.
Presumably next we'll be trying another new thing - tearing down the statues of those whom we previously judged worthy or public honour and respect ...
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Niw previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like regardless AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
Pfizer delivery delays due to their factory upgrade, hopefully it will be temporary and we get back up to speed by the end of Feb.
We obviously aren't getting the many millions of AZN coming through every week though to make up any shortfall from Pfizer.There is obviously still some bottleneck in getting these 20 million doses from vat to vial.
Impossible, these shortages only effect the EU.
WHERE'S MY NVIDIA 3080.......shouts loudly and waves arms around uncontrollablly.
Nvidia 3080? not seen any in about a month - anywhere in Europe
* I have a sideline business that tracks various Amazon prices and availability and there has literally been zero 3080 stock anywhere in Europe all month.
I know hence my jokey reaction.
I was actually waiting for the 3080Ti, but that looks like it got canned. Might have to stump up the £2k for a 3090.
From what I gather - mining is back so whatever stock exists of the most suitable cards (3060ti and 3080s) is being sidetracked before it gets anywhere near the final wholesaler.
The 3090 founders edition (£1400) don't sell out that quickly when they are released - next time they appear I will try to remember and ping you the hidden purchase link
Based on everything we have heard about Covid, since more-or-less day one of the nightmare, that's totally unsurprising.
The number under 45 who did not have an underlying condition is even smaller, I think.
Looking at the NHS England hospital figures (and the hospital stats should cover pretty well all Covid deaths for people of working age,) the total number of people who had succumbed to Covid-19 in English hospitals, as of the most recent weekly update (21 January,) was 64,111. Of those, 4,717 (7.4% of the total) were under 60, and of that subset only 486 (0.8% of total deaths) were people under 60 and with no known comorbidity.
So, Covid can get anybody, but if you're reasonably fit and below pensionable age then you'd be extraordinarily unlucky actually to die of it.
So what’s an “underlying condition” and how many people have one or more?
Around about 40 million people in England have no morbidity according to the Kings Fund. The NHS outlines the conditions on its spreadsheets..
By December 17, there were 48 (forty-eight) healthy under 40s who had lost their lives to it in England.
1 - the definition of “healthy” is extremely picky. 2 - these are the ones that medical intervention (sometimes heroic medical intervention) saved.
Approximate numbers hospitalised against dead a few weeks back in England in one week:
Ratio between population, cases, hospitalisation, ICU, and deaths per age group:
Without the medical attention, the death tolls, ratios, and so forth would be very very different.
And presumably a large proportion of the ICU admissions ends up with long term issues due to damage to lungs and other organs.
(It also looks like there's a lot of ICU rationing going on, with very few of the 85+ and a low proportion of the 75-84 getting ICU beds.)
Not necessarily rationing. Rationing implies that very old patients are being denied treatment because there's not enough to go around. That might be happening under some circumstances, but we can't definitively conclude that just from the patterns in these charts.
Those of advanced age, particularly if they are already ill with other conditions, may also be dying before reaching ICU, or medical opinion may suggest that interventions as radical as ventilation will cause further distress whilst also being very unlikely to lead to recovery and are, consequently, not in the best interest of the patient.
The IANARC report last week on second wave ICU admissions had this rather sobering graph. Some older people are being admitted but the results are very poor, and sadly not much better than the first wave.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Niw previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like regardless AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
Pfizer delivery delays due to their factory upgrade, hopefully it will be temporary and we get back up to speed by the end of Feb.
We obviously aren't getting the many millions of AZN coming through every week though to make up any shortfall from Pfizer.There is obviously still some bottleneck in getting these 20 million doses from vat to vial.
Impossible, these shortages only effect the EU.
WHERE'S MY NVIDIA 3080.......shouts loudly and waves arms around uncontrollablly.
Nvidia 3080? not seen any in about a month - anywhere in Europe
* I have a sideline business that tracks various Amazon prices and availability and there has literally been zero 3080 stock anywhere in Europe all month.
I know hence my jokey reaction.
I was actually waiting for the 3080Ti, but that looks like it got canned. Might have to stump up the £2k for a 3090.
From what I gather - mining is back so whatever stock exists of the most suitable cards (3060ti and 3080s) is being sidetracked before it gets anywhere near the final wholesaler.
The 3090 founders edition (£1400) don't sell out that quickly when they are released - next time they appear I will try to remember and ping you the hidden purchase link
Yes, the bastard cyptro miners have been buying up all stock.
Any journalist worth their salt sharing a story like this should have seen the data. They're making it clear they haven't.
This is gossip. Uninformed, unintelligent, dangerous, antivax gossip. Not reporting of scientific data.
I tend to agree. But I am not 100% sure. Handelsblatt IS a respected paper. Like the FT. They will know the personal and global consequences if they've got this wrong. It is not the Daily Express.
The reference to Bild to back them up makes me think it is desperate bullshit. But the reference to the health official with data being so explicit (virtually no efficacy in over 60s) does give me pause.
If it is true - IF IF IF IF - it is a calamity. Especially for the UK, but also the world in general.
It's all very All the President's Men. In the end Ben Bradlee had to make a call on how much he trusted Bernstein and Woodward and their sources. He got it right. It could just be the Handelsblatt reporter has a great track record, has broken huge stories before and is insisting that his sources are impeccable. The editor has decided to trust him/her. It looks like a catastrophic error.
Well quite. It all keeps coming back to where this data upon which the near zero efficacy claim is based has come from. Insofar as I'm aware, the only data available by which the efficacy of this vaccine may presently be determined is clinical trial data that is or has already been picked over by the relevant regulators, and the publicly disclosed summary of that tells us the same thing that reputable figures such as Vallance have also been telling us. There is no efficacy value available for older patients, because the trial didn't contain a large enough number of them to make a statistically valid determination; the assumption that the vaccine will be effective in older people therefore rests on the observation of similar immune responses in all age cohorts, and nobody in either British or German officialdom appears to be casting serious doubt on this - except for Handelsblatt's anonymous sources, who claim to have the smoking gun but won't produce it.
That's because it can't possibly exist. This vaccine hasn't been in use for long enough for the additional information necessary to determine efficacy in older patients to have been gathered.
If you are right then Handellsblatt should be closed down, and the journalists jailed. Seriously.
No. Free speech includes the freedom to be wrong.
It is easy to be tolerant of views you agree with.
It's a difficult one, isn't it?
Free speech isn't absolute. On the one hand, of course the people writing this stuff are entitled to be wrong. On the other hand, if they'd written an article saying that an unnamed source at the Interior Ministry had disclosed that migrants from such and such a country are ten times more likely to be rapists than the general population (without offering any evidence whatsoever to back the assertion) then would this be allowed to go unchallenged?
People in positions of power have a responsibility for the damage that their loose words can cause. If the US Senate can impeach Trump for inciting insurrection, then the least that can be done in the case of an extraordinarily serious, damaging, corrosive claim like the one being made by this newspaper is to suggest that it might be a good idea if they offered some evidence to back it.
Where would we find ourselves if anybody with a platform could make any entirely baseless claim they liked about anyone or anything, and get away with it?
I don't think it's difficult in this case at all. They did not directly incite a crime, which, besides revealing government secrets and commercial lying, is just about the only criminal limit I'd put on free speech (libel being a civil matter).
The case of Trump is interesting. Personally, I'd just about vote to acquit him on legal grounds, because he didn't directly and unambiguously incite a crime. But it's a much more marginal case than the Handlesblatt one.
If the journalists have published an improperly sourced claim, which turns out to be false, because they didn't see the data, yet still went ahead with their inflammatory allegations - several times over - then yes they have crossed the line. Prosecute.
This is tricky. Do you give the story oxygen of publicity by reporting on the denial, which the anti-vaxxers will jump on as the liazrd people cover up or do you ignore it and let the fake news potentially spread?
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
This is tricky. Do you give the story oxygen of publicity by reporting on the denial, which the anti-vaxxers will jump on as the liazrd people cover up or do you ignore it and let the fake news potentially spread?
I think it should be ignored (obviously, we can talk about it as we're all grown-ups and have zero influence...)
I assume they are referring to the BoE teller who magicked up money for HMG to pay their wages.
No, it is thanks to the banking and financial services sector that pretty much put the freeze on repayments due from customers who couldn't repay back their loans/credit cards/mortgages etc.
I assume they are referring to the BoE teller who magicked up money for HMG to pay their wages.
No, it is thanks to the banking and financial services sector that pretty much put the freeze on repayments due from customers who couldn't repay back their loans/credit cards/mortgages etc.
A fair point. Is there any limit to their generosity?
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
Surprised you would talk about monkeys after the row last week (unless it is about the current debate about selfies with H. sapiens). But this is all third or fourth order stuff anyway. Like HYUFD fantasising about violence.
Based on everything we have heard about Covid, since more-or-less day one of the nightmare, that's totally unsurprising.
The number under 45 who did not have an underlying condition is even smaller, I think.
Looking at the NHS England hospital figures (and the hospital stats should cover pretty well all Covid deaths for people of working age,) the total number of people who had succumbed to Covid-19 in English hospitals, as of the most recent weekly update (21 January,) was 64,111. Of those, 4,717 (7.4% of the total) were under 60, and of that subset only 486 (0.8% of total deaths) were people under 60 and with no known comorbidity.
So, Covid can get anybody, but if you're reasonably fit and below pensionable age then you'd be extraordinarily unlucky actually to die of it.
So what’s an “underlying condition” and how many people have one or more?
Around about 40 million people in England have no morbidity according to the Kings Fund. The NHS outlines the conditions on its spreadsheets..
By December 17, there were 48 (forty-eight) healthy under 40s who had lost their lives to it in England.
1 - the definition of “healthy” is extremely picky. 2 - these are the ones that medical intervention (sometimes heroic medical intervention) saved.
Approximate numbers hospitalised against dead a few weeks back in England in one week:
Ratio between population, cases, hospitalisation, ICU, and deaths per age group:
Without the medical attention, the death tolls, ratios, and so forth would be very very different.
And presumably a large proportion of the ICU admissions ends up with long term issues due to damage to lungs and other organs.
(It also looks like there's a lot of ICU rationing going on, with very few of the 85+ and a low proportion of the 75-84 getting ICU beds.)
Not necessarily rationing. Rationing implies that very old patients are being denied treatment because there's not enough to go around. That might be happening under some circumstances, but we can't definitively conclude that just from the patterns in these charts.
Those of advanced age, particularly if they are already ill with other conditions, may also be dying before reaching ICU, or medical opinion may suggest that interventions as radical as ventilation will cause further distress whilst also being very unlikely to lead to recovery and are, consequently, not in the best interest of the patient.
The IANARC report last week on second wave ICU admissions had this rather sobering graph. Some older people are being admitted but the results are very poor, and sadly not much better than the first wave.
The chart seems to be for all hospital admissions rather than ICU? (Which would make it worse.)
Oh that's just silly. How is Joe Public meant to have an informed opinion, or indeed any idea at all about whether or not "the chemical industry" has responded well to the pandemic? What does the question mean by the chemical industry? What does the public mean by it? How are, for example, nitric acid manufacturers meant to have responded in any meaningful way to coronavirus, and how would these respondents know whether they had or not? Come to think of it, what has the car industry got to do with it?
Brexit Bin 🇪🇺 #BrexitReality @BrexitBin Veteran Remainer 🇪🇺 Lives in Germany & GB. Tweets about the #Brexit utopia of #Gammonopolis *Non Partisan* I block Bots•Trolls•Brexidiots•Lexidiots•Covidiots EU & GammonopolisJoined September 2016 26.3K Following 57.1K Followers
Ha! Just noticed that he "blocks Covidiots"...
I'm assuming that everyone has read the threat quoted from the original journalist, and it seems to me he's walking back his allegations. (Albeit without admitting he's doing so, or altering the original story.)
Specifically, this is no longer a scientific paper or anything concrete, but is now "(unnamed) German officials estimate". That's VERY different framing from the original article, and very different from published AZN figures, which imply 70% or so accuracy (albeit on an incredibly small sample size).
At the very least, the journalist has been negligent in not getting comment from AZN before publishing the paper (something that they should always do). In this case, his attempt to change what he is claiming (without apology or correction) compounds his error.
I don't see how he can keep his job, and I don't see how Handelsblatt avoids an apology.
Robert, I think you mean 'thread' not 'threat'. You got me wondering what he had written!!
The original article didn't say it was a scientific paper, surely? My recollection was that he'd cited unnamed coalition sources, which is pretty much the same as he's saying now, except that he's got confirmation from two state governments that something is happening.
As I said, none of us actually know the new facts, if there are any. At present, we have no verified basis for doubt, so should continue vaccinating as though nothing had been said, but there is a query which should be clarified within a few days.
The story doesn't back up the headline. He's just saying that a UDI would be a problem for future EU membership, but we know that already.
Don't go all Michael Gove on me, he's a bona fide expert, the rest of the article backs up the headline.
I'd take him more seriously as a sage on Scotch matters if he could tell us where Fraserhead is (we all know where Peterborough is, conveniently on the ECML a little north of Welwyn).
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
Surprised you would talk about monkeys after the row last week (unless it is about the current debate about selfies with H. sapiens). But this is all third or fourth order stuff anyway. Like HYUFD fantasising about violence.
Well there's another section in that article which will trigger HYUFD.
Professor Weller said it “will not be possible” for the UK government “to deny a referendum indefinitely”.
Oh that's just silly. How is Joe Public meant to have an informed opinion, or indeed any idea at all about whether or not "the chemical industry" has responded well to the pandemic? What does the question mean by the chemical industry? What does the public mean by it? How are, for example, nitric acid manufacturers meant to have responded in any meaningful way to coronavirus, and how would these respondents know whether they had or not? Come to think of it, what has the car industry got to do with it?
I note the proportion of the Israeli population getting two vaccinations and compare it with the UK number and genuinely wonder which country is doing it better.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
The Hitler Diaries turned out to be one journalist who had gone loopy. And also corrupt. The Tailwind fiasco was CNN relying on a single journalist who said it had all been double checked. The Bush National Guard records thing relied on a small group of journalists who did the same...
Thankfully in the 21st century people are more vigorous about checking sources before sharing, or copying and pasting other people's material so that could never happen again (!)
Surely the Hitler Diaries were checked. The ST did smell a rat but made the mistake of asking Oxford for an expert opinion.
The ST smelt a rat, but were not originally due to publish it, and The Times was much less sceptical as was Murdoch.
Incidentally, they did not ‘ask Oxford for an expert opinion.’ They asked Lord Dacre of Glanton, who was Master of Peterhouse College, Cambridge. He was also an undistinguished historian of Tudor England who rose rapidly in his profession due to his wife’s connections, and could not read German or even speak it fluently.
No other attempt attempt was made to authenticate prior to publication. When they were published, they were speedily proved to be fakes by forensic tests, which had been refused in advance.
This does look more and more like theHitler Diaries though. An idiot who’s been hoaxed but cannot bear to admit it.
Oh that's just silly. How is Joe Public meant to have an informed opinion, or indeed any idea at all about whether or not "the chemical industry" has responded well to the pandemic? What does the question mean by the chemical industry? What does the public mean by it? How are, for example, nitric acid manufacturers meant to have responded in any meaningful way to coronavirus, and how would these respondents know whether they had or not? Come to think of it, what has the car industry got to do with it?
Who writes these stupid questions?
Even so, given the popular view of "chemicals", it certainly says something about the popular view of Mr Johnson and the UK Government. I am actually mildy surprised he is twice as unpopular as "chemicals".
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
I note the proportion of the Israeli population getting two vaccinations and compare it with the UK number and genuinely wonder which country is doing it better.
Quite simply Israel. More, faster (as proportion of population), all spares used up allowing queuing public. The only issue they are having is getting the housebound done, as they only have Pfizer. But instead they just vaccinating all their carers and family.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
The Hitler Diaries turned out to be one journalist who had gone loopy. And also corrupt. The Tailwind fiasco was CNN relying on a single journalist who said it had all been double checked. The Bush National Guard records thing relied on a small group of journalists who did the same...
Thankfully in the 21st century people are more vigorous about checking sources before sharing, or copying and pasting other people's material so that could never happen again (!)
Surely the Hitler Diaries were checked. The ST did smell a rat but made the mistake of asking Oxford for an expert opinion.
The ST smelt a rat, but were not originally due to publish it, and The Times was much less sceptical as was Murdoch.
Incidentally, they did not ‘ask Oxford for an expert opinion.’ They asked Lord Dacre of Glanton, who was Master of Peterhouse College, Cambridge. He was also an undistinguished historian of Tudor England who rose rapidly in his profession due to his wife’s connections, and could not read German or even speak it fluently.
No other attempt attempt was made to authenticate prior to publication. When they were published, they were speedily proved to be fakes by forensic tests, which had been refused in advance.
This does look more and more like theHitler Diaries though. An idiot who’s been hoaxed but cannot bear to admit it.
In fairness he did start off in the Latin Quartier of Cowley. But I hadn't realised he was an actual Director of Times Newspapers, which might explain why a Tudorologist was selected ... but also of course he investigated Hitler's end as an intelligence officer.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
Developments: the head of the European Medicines Agency has now also suggested some age restriction *might* be appropriate, and AZ's CEO has said he's sure it's fine but he'd understand if countries were cautious about giving it to older people - e.g. giving another vaccine to the elderly. The 8% figure remains fiercely denied by the Health Ministry and that part of the story looks as though it comes from a single individual.
Based on everything we have heard about Covid, since more-or-less day one of the nightmare, that's totally unsurprising.
The number under 45 who did not have an underlying condition is even smaller, I think.
Looking at the NHS England hospital figures (and the hospital stats should cover pretty well all Covid deaths for people of working age,) the total number of people who had succumbed to Covid-19 in English hospitals, as of the most recent weekly update (21 January,) was 64,111. Of those, 4,717 (7.4% of the total) were under 60, and of that subset only 486 (0.8% of total deaths) were people under 60 and with no known comorbidity.
So, Covid can get anybody, but if you're reasonably fit and below pensionable age then you'd be extraordinarily unlucky actually to die of it.
So what’s an “underlying condition” and how many people have one or more?
Around about 40 million people in England have no morbidity according to the Kings Fund. The NHS outlines the conditions on its spreadsheets..
By December 17, there were 48 (forty-eight) healthy under 40s who had lost their lives to it in England.
1 - the definition of “healthy” is extremely picky. 2 - these are the ones that medical intervention (sometimes heroic medical intervention) saved.
Approximate numbers hospitalised against dead a few weeks back in England in one week:
Ratio between population, cases, hospitalisation, ICU, and deaths per age group:
Without the medical attention, the death tolls, ratios, and so forth would be very very different.
And presumably a large proportion of the ICU admissions ends up with long term issues due to damage to lungs and other organs.
(It also looks like there's a lot of ICU rationing going on, with very few of the 85+ and a low proportion of the 75-84 getting ICU beds.)
Not necessarily rationing. Rationing implies that very old patients are being denied treatment because there's not enough to go around. That might be happening under some circumstances, but we can't definitively conclude that just from the patterns in these charts.
Those of advanced age, particularly if they are already ill with other conditions, may also be dying before reaching ICU, or medical opinion may suggest that interventions as radical as ventilation will cause further distress whilst also being very unlikely to lead to recovery and are, consequently, not in the best interest of the patient.
The IANARC report last week on second wave ICU admissions had this rather sobering graph. Some older people are being admitted but the results are very poor, and sadly not much better than the first wave.
The chart seems to be for all hospital admissions rather than ICU? (Which would make it worse.)
No ICNARC is the intensive care society, its data doesn't include other admissions.
I don’t think the discrepancy between those who’d now vote Remain and those who now wish to rejoin the EU is explained simply by people being reluctant about change. There may be plenty who think that the damage that’s been done can’t simply be undone.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
Might want to move the 500k stockpile into Scottish warehouses then.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
Na. Too busy procuring blue envelopes
No, look at the numbers - x jagged, vs 2x received from UK Gmt, and all methodically done, almost finished the old housebound and in care homes.
Developments: the head of the European Medicines Agency has now also suggested some age restriction *might* be appropriate, and AZ's CEO has said he's sure it's fine but he'd understand if countries were cautious about giving it to older people - e.g. giving another vaccine to the elderly. The 8% figure remains fiercely denied by the Health Ministry and that part of the story looks as though it comes from a single individual.
Based on everything we have heard about Covid, since more-or-less day one of the nightmare, that's totally unsurprising.
The number under 45 who did not have an underlying condition is even smaller, I think.
Looking at the NHS England hospital figures (and the hospital stats should cover pretty well all Covid deaths for people of working age,) the total number of people who had succumbed to Covid-19 in English hospitals, as of the most recent weekly update (21 January,) was 64,111. Of those, 4,717 (7.4% of the total) were under 60, and of that subset only 486 (0.8% of total deaths) were people under 60 and with no known comorbidity.
So, Covid can get anybody, but if you're reasonably fit and below pensionable age then you'd be extraordinarily unlucky actually to die of it.
So what’s an “underlying condition” and how many people have one or more?
Around about 40 million people in England have no morbidity according to the Kings Fund. The NHS outlines the conditions on its spreadsheets..
By December 17, there were 48 (forty-eight) healthy under 40s who had lost their lives to it in England.
1 - the definition of “healthy” is extremely picky. 2 - these are the ones that medical intervention (sometimes heroic medical intervention) saved.
Approximate numbers hospitalised against dead a few weeks back in England in one week:
Ratio between population, cases, hospitalisation, ICU, and deaths per age group:
Without the medical attention, the death tolls, ratios, and so forth would be very very different.
And presumably a large proportion of the ICU admissions ends up with long term issues due to damage to lungs and other organs.
(It also looks like there's a lot of ICU rationing going on, with very few of the 85+ and a low proportion of the 75-84 getting ICU beds.)
Not necessarily rationing. Rationing implies that very old patients are being denied treatment because there's not enough to go around. That might be happening under some circumstances, but we can't definitively conclude that just from the patterns in these charts.
Those of advanced age, particularly if they are already ill with other conditions, may also be dying before reaching ICU, or medical opinion may suggest that interventions as radical as ventilation will cause further distress whilst also being very unlikely to lead to recovery and are, consequently, not in the best interest of the patient.
The IANARC report last week on second wave ICU admissions had this rather sobering graph. Some older people are being admitted but the results are very poor, and sadly not much better than the first wave.
The chart seems to be for all hospital admissions rather than ICU? (Which would make it worse.)
No ICNARC is the intensive care society, its data doesn't include other admissions.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
Might want to move the 500k stockpile into Scottish warehouses then.
Exactly. Doiung x first jags crteates a need for x 2nd jags. And if there are problems with supply?
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
Lovely journalism. With the help of ambiguity everything that is literally stated could well be true, but is trivial and obvious, and everything that is implied and waved at is plainly false.
Oh that's just silly. How is Joe Public meant to have an informed opinion, or indeed any idea at all about whether or not "the chemical industry" has responded well to the pandemic? What does the question mean by the chemical industry? What does the public mean by it? How are, for example, nitric acid manufacturers meant to have responded in any meaningful way to coronavirus, and how would these respondents know whether they had or not? Come to think of it, what has the car industry got to do with it?
Who writes these stupid questions?
Nevertheless I’m pretty sure Boris Johnson is the one category on which Joe Public would have an informed opinion.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
As in, that's why they've gone headlong for finishing the care homes whilst falling well behind elsewhere?
I'm not so sure about that. The English NHS has managed over 75% of both the care home residents and the over 80s in the general population, and AFAIK is nowhere near running out of vaccine yet.
No-one's response to this pandemic has been perfect or anywhere close. It's possible that the Scottish rollout has just been plain old slow.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
The Hitler Diaries turned out to be one journalist who had gone loopy. And also corrupt. The Tailwind fiasco was CNN relying on a single journalist who said it had all been double checked. The Bush National Guard records thing relied on a small group of journalists who did the same...
Thankfully in the 21st century people are more vigorous about checking sources before sharing, or copying and pasting other people's material so that could never happen again (!)
Surely the Hitler Diaries were checked. The ST did smell a rat but made the mistake of asking Oxford for an expert opinion.
The ST smelt a rat, but were not originally due to publish it, and The Times was much less sceptical as was Murdoch.
Incidentally, they did not ‘ask Oxford for an expert opinion.’ They asked Lord Dacre of Glanton, who was Master of Peterhouse College, Cambridge. He was also an undistinguished historian of Tudor England who rose rapidly in his profession due to his wife’s connections, and could not read German or even speak it fluently.
No other attempt attempt was made to authenticate prior to publication. When they were published, they were speedily proved to be fakes by forensic tests, which had been refused in advance.
This does look more and more like theHitler Diaries though. An idiot who’s been hoaxed but cannot bear to admit it.
In fairness he did start off in the Latin Quartier of Cowley. But I hadn't realised he was an actual Director of Times Newspapers, which might explain why a Tudorologist was selected ... but also of course he investigated Hitler's end as an intelligence officer.
Note that statement "No other attempt attempt was made to authenticate prior to publication" is not quite correct IIRC. Think Stern did submit some of the "Hitler diaries" to the West German police lab, but analysis was cursory at best (or rather worst) because in part (again IIRC) Stern limited what kinds of testing were done.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
The Hitler Diaries turned out to be one journalist who had gone loopy. And also corrupt. The Tailwind fiasco was CNN relying on a single journalist who said it had all been double checked. The Bush National Guard records thing relied on a small group of journalists who did the same...
Thankfully in the 21st century people are more vigorous about checking sources before sharing, or copying and pasting other people's material so that could never happen again (!)
Surely the Hitler Diaries were checked. The ST did smell a rat but made the mistake of asking Oxford for an expert opinion.
The ST smelt a rat, but were not originally due to publish it, and The Times was much less sceptical as was Murdoch.
Incidentally, they did not ‘ask Oxford for an expert opinion.’ They asked Lord Dacre of Glanton, who was Master of Peterhouse College, Cambridge. He was also an undistinguished historian of Tudor England who rose rapidly in his profession due to his wife’s connections, and could not read German or even speak it fluently.
No other attempt attempt was made to authenticate prior to publication. When they were published, they were speedily proved to be fakes by forensic tests, which had been refused in advance.
This does look more and more like theHitler Diaries though. An idiot who’s been hoaxed but cannot bear to admit it.
In fairness he did start off in the Latin Quartier of Cowley. But I hadn't realised he was an actual Director of Times Newspapers, which might explain why a Tudorologist was selected ... but also of course he investigated Hitler's end as an intelligence officer.
It was both of those reasons, although another convenient reason was that Murdoch didn’t like him and assumed he would refuse the offer creating the perfect pretext to remove him from the Board.
I don’t think the discrepancy between those who’d now vote Remain and those who now wish to rejoin the EU is explained simply by people being reluctant about change. There may be plenty who think that the damage that’s been done can’t simply be undone.
I think that is true. I don't think that we could simply undo the damage by Rejoining. Indeed by the time that we do, we will have suffered a lot of pointless and irreparable economic and social damage.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
As in, that's why they've gone headlong for finishing the care homes whilst falling well behind elsewhere?
I'm not so sure about that. The English NHS has managed over 75% of both the care home residents and the over 80s in the general population, and AFAIK is nowhere near running out of vaccine yet.
No-one's response to this pandemic has been perfect or anywhere close. It's possible that the Scottish rollout has just been plain old slow.
Not if they are saving the secoind doses to avoid the first beign wasted.
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
Surprised you would talk about monkeys after the row last week (unless it is about the current debate about selfies with H. sapiens). But this is all third or fourth order stuff anyway. Like HYUFD fantasising about violence.
Well there's another section in that article which will trigger HYUFD.
Professor Weller said it “will not be possible” for the UK government “to deny a referendum indefinitely”.
To be fair to HYUFD (which I rarely am) he generally never speaks of indefinite delays. Just Boris punting the problem long enough for it to become someone else's, possibly Starmer's.
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
Surprised you would talk about monkeys after the row last week (unless it is about the current debate about selfies with H. sapiens). But this is all third or fourth order stuff anyway. Like HYUFD fantasising about violence.
Well there's another section in that article which will trigger HYUFD.
Professor Weller said it “will not be possible” for the UK government “to deny a referendum indefinitely”.
To be fair to HYUFD (which I rarely am) he generally never speaks of indefinite delays. Just Boris punting the problem long enough for it to become someone else's, possibly Starmer's.
Children do have a habit of being born and growing up.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
The Hitler Diaries turned out to be one journalist who had gone loopy. And also corrupt. The Tailwind fiasco was CNN relying on a single journalist who said it had all been double checked. The Bush National Guard records thing relied on a small group of journalists who did the same...
Thankfully in the 21st century people are more vigorous about checking sources before sharing, or copying and pasting other people's material so that could never happen again (!)
Surely the Hitler Diaries were checked. The ST did smell a rat but made the mistake of asking Oxford for an expert opinion.
The ST smelt a rat, but were not originally due to publish it, and The Times was much less sceptical as was Murdoch.
Incidentally, they did not ‘ask Oxford for an expert opinion.’ They asked Lord Dacre of Glanton, who was Master of Peterhouse College, Cambridge. He was also an undistinguished historian of Tudor England who rose rapidly in his profession due to his wife’s connections, and could not read German or even speak it fluently.
No other attempt attempt was made to authenticate prior to publication. When they were published, they were speedily proved to be fakes by forensic tests, which had been refused in advance.
This does look more and more like theHitler Diaries though. An idiot who’s been hoaxed but cannot bear to admit it.
In fairness he did start off in the Latin Quartier of Cowley. But I hadn't realised he was an actual Director of Times Newspapers, which might explain why a Tudorologist was selected ... but also of course he investigated Hitler's end as an intelligence officer.
Note that statement "No other attempt attempt was made to authenticate prior to publication" is not quite correct IIRC. Think Stern did submit some of the "Hitler diaries" to the West German police lab, but analysis was cursory at best (or rather worst) because in part (again IIRC) Stern limited what kinds of testing were done.
Not quite. They asked an expert from the West German police lab to look at them and see if the materials were from the same author. He confirmed they were but also said there seemed to be a chance the paper was post war. He asked to carry out further tests to investigate further and was refused.
You can’t say comparing forged materials with forged materials is an attempt at authentication.
I suppose I was a bit harsh not to (separately) include Weinberg’s later analysis, but the decision to publish had been taken by then and he was working for a possible North American syndication buyer.
Edit - what we have here, in any case, is a story the manufacturer, the relevant medical agency and the alleged source have all thoroughly refuted, based on a stupid error, *that a paper is refusing to retract*. Which is extraordinary.
I don’t think the discrepancy between those who’d now vote Remain and those who now wish to rejoin the EU is explained simply by people being reluctant about change. There may be plenty who think that the damage that’s been done can’t simply be undone.
I think that being reluctant to have further change is a wholly plausible explanation. The Brexit vote and the subsequent process dragged on for many years. People are entirely entitled to say that they'd vote one way if they could go back in time and cast another ballot in the first referendum, but they wouldn't want to go through the further five or ten years of aggro and divisiveness that would characterize the whole reaccession and second referendum process.
Simply, it's fine to say "this didn't turn out the way I wanted, but I'd rather like to move on and have a quiet life now, not re-fight old battles."
So it is Oxford University’s involvement in collaborating with AZN, and the pre-existing ties it has with the government, that gave us the head start with the AZN vaccine, rather than anything arising from Brexit.
Except for the obvious point that, had we remained in the EU, we would have been bound by the EU scheme and delayed along with the other members. But, apart from that, you are absolutely right.
So it is Oxford University’s involvement in collaborating with AZN, and the pre-existing ties it has with the government, that gave us the head start with the AZN vaccine, rather than anything arising from Brexit.
Except for the obvious point that, had we remained in the EU, we would have been bound by the EU scheme and delayed along with the other members. But, apart from that, you are absolutely right.
So it is Oxford University’s involvement in collaborating with AZN, and the pre-existing ties it has with the government, that gave us the head start with the AZN vaccine, rather than anything arising from Brexit.
Except for the obvious point that, had we remained in the EU, we would have been bound by the EU scheme and delayed along with the other members. But, apart from that, you are absolutely right.
To be obvious, participation in that scheme would have to preclude making additional arrangements of your own. Yet we already see that is happening.
Based on everything we have heard about Covid, since more-or-less day one of the nightmare, that's totally unsurprising.
The number under 45 who did not have an underlying condition is even smaller, I think.
Looking at the NHS England hospital figures (and the hospital stats should cover pretty well all Covid deaths for people of working age,) the total number of people who had succumbed to Covid-19 in English hospitals, as of the most recent weekly update (21 January,) was 64,111. Of those, 4,717 (7.4% of the total) were under 60, and of that subset only 486 (0.8% of total deaths) were people under 60 and with no known comorbidity.
So, Covid can get anybody, but if you're reasonably fit and below pensionable age then you'd be extraordinarily unlucky actually to die of it.
So what’s an “underlying condition” and how many people have one or more?
Around about 40 million people in England have no morbidity according to the Kings Fund. The NHS outlines the conditions on its spreadsheets..
By December 17, there were 48 (forty-eight) healthy under 40s who had lost their lives to it in England.
1 - the definition of “healthy” is extremely picky. 2 - these are the ones that medical intervention (sometimes heroic medical intervention) saved.
Approximate numbers hospitalised against dead a few weeks back in England in one week:
Ratio between population, cases, hospitalisation, ICU, and deaths per age group:
Without the medical attention, the death tolls, ratios, and so forth would be very very different.
And presumably a large proportion of the ICU admissions ends up with long term issues due to damage to lungs and other organs.
(It also looks like there's a lot of ICU rationing going on, with very few of the 85+ and a low proportion of the 75-84 getting ICU beds.)
Not necessarily rationing. Rationing implies that very old patients are being denied treatment because there's not enough to go around. That might be happening under some circumstances, but we can't definitively conclude that just from the patterns in these charts.
Those of advanced age, particularly if they are already ill with other conditions, may also be dying before reaching ICU, or medical opinion may suggest that interventions as radical as ventilation will cause further distress whilst also being very unlikely to lead to recovery and are, consequently, not in the best interest of the patient.
The IANARC report last week on second wave ICU admissions had this rather sobering graph. Some older people are being admitted but the results are very poor, and sadly not much better than the first wave.
The chart seems to be for all hospital admissions rather than ICU? (Which would make it worse.)
No ICNARC is the intensive care society, its data doesn't include other admissions.
They publish an update weekly, with a lot of interesting data. Few in ICU have more than 1 preexisting condition, and fewer still had significant disability from it.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
As in, that's why they've gone headlong for finishing the care homes whilst falling well behind elsewhere?
I'm not so sure about that. The English NHS has managed over 75% of both the care home residents and the over 80s in the general population, and AFAIK is nowhere near running out of vaccine yet.
No-one's response to this pandemic has been perfect or anywhere close. It's possible that the Scottish rollout has just been plain old slow.
Not if they are saving the secoind doses to avoid the first beign wasted.
12 weeks between doses is April for the second injection. Supply of existing will have fully settled down by then with J&j, Moderna and Novavax probably available as well. Holding back stock to ensure you have a second dose for then is just overly pessimistic and risks deaths now.
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
Surprised you would talk about monkeys after the row last week (unless it is about the current debate about selfies with H. sapiens). But this is all third or fourth order stuff anyway. Like HYUFD fantasising about violence.
Well there's another section in that article which will trigger HYUFD.
Professor Weller said it “will not be possible” for the UK government “to deny a referendum indefinitely”.
To be fair to HYUFD (which I rarely am) he generally never speaks of indefinite delays. Just Boris punting the problem long enough for it to become someone else's, possibly Starmer's.
Children do have a habit of being born and growing up.
This has to be fake news about football "fans" in Holland going around in orange jackets "protecting" city centres this evening and that it has kinda been oked by the police..surely fake right?
What an absolute shit show from the EU on the vaccines. Astra have shown they're not going to be pushed round and neither will Pfizer. Tbh I'd also think twice about building any sort of future capacity there if I was a drug company.
I have been running my own chart looking at the rolling 7 day UK case numbers and comparing against a week previously. This shows the rate of change of the number of cases.
What is interesting to me is that we have never seen a decrease anything like this before. Even if you factor in the Spring 2020 peak as being 10x bigger it took a long time to subside. For the last 2 weeks we have seen cases plummeting.
This cannot of course happen forever as there will naturally be a flattening out of the decline. However, it makes me thing about what is different now to previously. Clearly schools are closed now compared with the November lockdown but schools were closed in March and we did not see declines like we have now. Mask adherence is also generally very good compared to the first peak when there was no enforcement. Both will have obviously helped but what else could it be?
In my view there are 2 factors now coming into play:
1. So many people have now had it. By Summer last year I only knew of a handful of people who thought they had had it. Now I know lots of people who have had it. Clearly these people have a level of immunity which not only protects them but also reduces transmission.
2. Vaccinations. We started early in December and although it was a slow start the numbers are starting to ramp up massively. Lots of healthcare workers have now had the vaccine (or had Covid previously). I think we are already seeing the benefits of this.
It is still very early days and obviously we all hope the numbers continue to plummet. The case numbers in the last 2 weeks give cause for some optimism.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
As in, that's why they've gone headlong for finishing the care homes whilst falling well behind elsewhere?
I'm not so sure about that. The English NHS has managed over 75% of both the care home residents and the over 80s in the general population, and AFAIK is nowhere near running out of vaccine yet.
No-one's response to this pandemic has been perfect or anywhere close. It's possible that the Scottish rollout has just been plain old slow.
Not if they are saving the secoind doses to avoid the first beign wasted.
Saving 1 dose for each dose given would only make sense if you thought supplies might stop completely for the next 12 weeks. That seems excessively pessimistic.
So it is Oxford University’s involvement in collaborating with AZN, and the pre-existing ties it has with the government, that gave us the head start with the AZN vaccine, rather than anything arising from Brexit.
Except for the obvious point that, had we remained in the EU, we would have been bound by the EU scheme and delayed along with the other members. But, apart from that, you are absolutely right.
So it is Oxford University’s involvement in collaborating with AZN, and the pre-existing ties it has with the government, that gave us the head start with the AZN vaccine, rather than anything arising from Brexit.
Except for the obvious point that, had we remained in the EU, we would have been bound by the EU scheme and delayed along with the other members. But, apart from that, you are absolutely right.
So it is Oxford University’s involvement in collaborating with AZN, and the pre-existing ties it has with the government, that gave us the head start with the AZN vaccine, rather than anything arising from Brexit.
Except for the obvious point that, had we remained in the EU, we would have been bound by the EU scheme and delayed along with the other members. But, apart from that, you are absolutely right.
To be obvious, participation in that scheme would have to preclude making additional arrangements of your own. Yet we already see that is happening.
You seem to be missing the point that Germany, France, Italy and Spain had already negotiated the deal, and then were told to stop and not sign it by the EU, because the EU wanted to negotiate and sign on behalf of all 27 - which is what wasted the 3 months.
Have we done this? Sounds like vaccine shortages coming in Feb..
Region’s vaccine programme ‘stepped back’ as supply cut by a third
The supply of covid vaccine to the North West region is set to be cut by around a third in February, seemingly due to national shortages and the need for other regions to catch up with vaccinating their priority groups.
Now previously the "direct to other areas" has been denied by the government, but they haven't denied lower deliveries due to supply shortage. Sounds like one way or another AZN aint got production up to full speed if we still are expecting shortfall through Feb.
I reckon we should have a meltdown and threaten to sue them...
Maybe it's the fill & finish problem? But that's a complete guess.
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
I do wonder if the Scottish government saw this coming.
As in, that's why they've gone headlong for finishing the care homes whilst falling well behind elsewhere?
I'm not so sure about that. The English NHS has managed over 75% of both the care home residents and the over 80s in the general population, and AFAIK is nowhere near running out of vaccine yet.
No-one's response to this pandemic has been perfect or anywhere close. It's possible that the Scottish rollout has just been plain old slow.
Not if they are saving the secoind doses to avoid the first beign wasted.
Except that, given it appears that supply may get short for a few weeks, rather than drying up completely for months on end, hoarding unused doses makes sense.
The guidelines for administration of the second doses give the NHS quite a lot of leeway in terms of timetables. If it is felt that we're going to be a bit short of supply for a long time then, presumably, it would make sense at some point in the future to stop giving first doses to the lower priority cohorts, and start using progressively more of the vaccine available to cover the second shots. Not ease off immediately.
Right now, for reasons that have been previously explained by the scientists on a number of occasions, the priority is to get as many first doses into as many people as possible. Leaving most of your octogenarians unprotected because you want to keep some vials to go back through the care homes in ten or twelve weeks' time would be counterproductive.
I have been running my own chart looking at the rolling 7 day UK case numbers and comparing against a week previously. This shows the rate of change of the number of cases.
What is interesting to me is that we have never seen a decrease anything like this before. Even if you factor in the Spring 2020 peak as being 10x bigger it took a long time to subside. For the last 2 weeks we have seen cases plummeting.
This cannot of course happen forever as there will naturally be a flattening out of the decline. However, it makes me thing about what is different now to previously. Clearly schools are closed now compared with the November lockdown but schools were closed in March and we did not see declines like we have now. Mask adherence is also generally very good compared to the first peak when there was no enforcement. Both will have obviously helped but what else could it be?
In my view there are 2 factors now coming into play:
1. So many people have now had it. By Summer last year I only knew of a handful of people who thought they had had it. Now I know lots of people who have had it. Clearly these people have a level of immunity which not only protects them but also reduces transmission.
2. Vaccinations. We started early in December and although it was a slow start the numbers are starting to ramp up massively. Lots of healthcare workers have now had the vaccine (or had Covid previously). I think we are already seeing the benefits of this.
It is still very early days and obviously we all hope the numbers continue to plummet. The case numbers in the last 2 weeks give cause for some optimism.
In March and April we were ramping up testing at the same time cases were coming down. The better measure for R is actually hospital admissions with a 15-17 day delay.
I have been running my own chart looking at the rolling 7 day UK case numbers and comparing against a week previously. This shows the rate of change of the number of cases.
What is interesting to me is that we have never seen a decrease anything like this before. Even if you factor in the Spring 2020 peak as being 10x bigger it took a long time to subside. For the last 2 weeks we have seen cases plummeting.
This cannot of course happen forever as there will naturally be a flattening out of the decline. However, it makes me thing about what is different now to previously. Clearly schools are closed now compared with the November lockdown but schools were closed in March and we did not see declines like we have now. Mask adherence is also generally very good compared to the first peak when there was no enforcement. Both will have obviously helped but what else could it be?
In my view there are 2 factors now coming into play:
1. So many people have now had it. By Summer last year I only knew of a handful of people who thought they had had it. Now I know lots of people who have had it. Clearly these people have a level of immunity which not only protects them but also reduces transmission.
2. Vaccinations. We started early in December and although it was a slow start the numbers are starting to ramp up massively. Lots of healthcare workers have now had the vaccine (or had Covid previously). I think we are already seeing the benefits of this.
It is still very early days and obviously we all hope the numbers continue to plummet. The case numbers in the last 2 weeks give cause for some optimism.
It's an interesting graph. Your logic seems sound to me, but I think there's also a secret third option which is that the virus sometimes just seems to be capricious for whatever reason (I don't mean deliberately) and it ramps up and declines in strange bursts that we just don't understand, hence the complex regional differences we've seen over time.
It almost seems to burn itself out on a localised scale in ways we don't expect, and we also have the bit of a relative mystery that the new variant being more transmissible seems not to have translated into the same sort of problems of getting the R under 1 in a lockdown as the scientists seems to fear.
Obviously though I know nothing about epidemiology so am probably just talking shite.
I have been running my own chart looking at the rolling 7 day UK case numbers and comparing against a week previously. This shows the rate of change of the number of cases.
What is interesting to me is that we have never seen a decrease anything like this before. Even if you factor in the Spring 2020 peak as being 10x bigger it took a long time to subside. For the last 2 weeks we have seen cases plummeting.
This cannot of course happen forever as there will naturally be a flattening out of the decline. However, it makes me thing about what is different now to previously. Clearly schools are closed now compared with the November lockdown but schools were closed in March and we did not see declines like we have now. Mask adherence is also generally very good compared to the first peak when there was no enforcement. Both will have obviously helped but what else could it be?
In my view there are 2 factors now coming into play:
1. So many people have now had it. By Summer last year I only knew of a handful of people who thought they had had it. Now I know lots of people who have had it. Clearly these people have a level of immunity which not only protects them but also reduces transmission.
2. Vaccinations. We started early in December and although it was a slow start the numbers are starting to ramp up massively. Lots of healthcare workers have now had the vaccine (or had Covid previously). I think we are already seeing the benefits of this.
It is still very early days and obviously we all hope the numbers continue to plummet. The case numbers in the last 2 weeks give cause for some optimism.
I don't think looking at the movement in absolute case numbers is very useful, as of course it moves much more when cases are high already. The week-to-week percentage change is a lot more interesting.
I have been running my own chart looking at the rolling 7 day UK case numbers and comparing against a week previously. This shows the rate of change of the number of cases.
What is interesting to me is that we have never seen a decrease anything like this before. Even if you factor in the Spring 2020 peak as being 10x bigger it took a long time to subside. For the last 2 weeks we have seen cases plummeting.
This cannot of course happen forever as there will naturally be a flattening out of the decline. However, it makes me thing about what is different now to previously. Clearly schools are closed now compared with the November lockdown but schools were closed in March and we did not see declines like we have now. Mask adherence is also generally very good compared to the first peak when there was no enforcement. Both will have obviously helped but what else could it be?
In my view there are 2 factors now coming into play:
1. So many people have now had it. By Summer last year I only knew of a handful of people who thought they had had it. Now I know lots of people who have had it. Clearly these people have a level of immunity which not only protects them but also reduces transmission.
2. Vaccinations. We started early in December and although it was a slow start the numbers are starting to ramp up massively. Lots of healthcare workers have now had the vaccine (or had Covid previously). I think we are already seeing the benefits of this.
It is still very early days and obviously we all hope the numbers continue to plummet. The case numbers in the last 2 weeks give cause for some optimism.
This is interesting, although a % change would potentially make more sense if you are trying to look at the speed of reduction.
I think that there are potentially 3 factors at play here in comparison with the last lockdown:
1) Care home residents having been vaccinated / not discharging into a home to cause onward spread. 2) Medical personnel having the vaccine and it having an effect in reducing onward transmission. (Wasn't there a stat along the lines of 1/3 of covid cases in the first wave were hospital acquired? I can't believe it is anything like that now) 3) The new Variant... Whilst the new variant reduces the doubling time on the 'up slope', that also means that it reduces the halving time on the 'down slope' when R is less than 1.
*Throws the laxatives into the monkey house and sits back and watches, Sorry I meant to say lights the blue touch paper and sits back and watches.*
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
It's pretty easy to say we really don't want one, but it is pretty hard to justifiably deny one when 'I don't want it' is pretty much the main reason against. I think a lot of people who are really opposed to it, and the potential outcome, recognise that.
Presumably they're going to have to make sure that the 2,000 VC winners weren't at all racist before they build their statues?
What I find astonishing is that thewy were so desperate to have a dogwhistle for the Brexity voters that they didn't; stop to consider that the GC holders woiuld be just as worthy of consideration as the VC holders.
I have enormous respect for all VC and GC holders, and we owe them a deep dept of gratitude. However, I am not sure about having an individual likeness of each of them dotted around the country like garden gnomes. A beautiful monument like a folly or a woodland style cascade, where the names of recipients can be added (and new ones added as they win these medals) seems more fitting.
That said, I don't really see how this is 'a slap in the face for women' either. I don't think you can slap someone by honouring someone else. I am sure most women, if asked, would be fully behind a scheme to honour the winners of the VC, rather than taking it as a personal insult.
Glasgow's VC winners are commemorated in a single monument in the Necropolis which looks out over Glasgow, quite fitting I think (there may be other individual monuments of I'm not aware).
I agree - that sounds good. I haven't visited Necropolis - definitely one for the list post Covid. Not explored Glasgow nearly enough.
With 'someone' in the German government either maliciously undermining AZ through false info leaking or leaking genuine concerns about AZ, then securing all other supplies produced would become much more vital I suppose.
I have been running my own chart looking at the rolling 7 day UK case numbers and comparing against a week previously. This shows the rate of change of the number of cases.
What is interesting to me is that we have never seen a decrease anything like this before. Even if you factor in the Spring 2020 peak as being 10x bigger it took a long time to subside. For the last 2 weeks we have seen cases plummeting.
This cannot of course happen forever as there will naturally be a flattening out of the decline. However, it makes me thing about what is different now to previously. Clearly schools are closed now compared with the November lockdown but schools were closed in March and we did not see declines like we have now. Mask adherence is also generally very good compared to the first peak when there was no enforcement. Both will have obviously helped but what else could it be?
In my view there are 2 factors now coming into play:
1. So many people have now had it. By Summer last year I only knew of a handful of people who thought they had had it. Now I know lots of people who have had it. Clearly these people have a level of immunity which not only protects them but also reduces transmission.
2. Vaccinations. We started early in December and although it was a slow start the numbers are starting to ramp up massively. Lots of healthcare workers have now had the vaccine (or had Covid previously). I think we are already seeing the benefits of this.
It is still very early days and obviously we all hope the numbers continue to plummet. The case numbers in the last 2 weeks give cause for some optimism.
IIRC the zoe covid data showed the number infected peaking at 2.2m on 01/04 and reducing to about 100k at the beginning of June and then down to below 20k during August.
While there is much more ppe used now than in the spring there's also more people working and in the supermarkets which might equal out.
Here are the stats from a game of football played this evening. Home side; Possession 36%; Shots 4, Corners 0. Away side; possession 64%, shots 26, corners 13. The result Home side 2, Away side 1. Bristol City V. Huddersfield Town.
Comments
I was actually waiting for the 3080Ti, but that looks like it got canned. Might have to stump up the £2k for a 3090.
Those of advanced age, particularly if they are already ill with other conditions, may also be dying before reaching ICU, or medical opinion may suggest that interventions as radical as ventilation will cause further distress whilst also being very unlikely to lead to recovery and are, consequently, not in the best interest of the patient.
Independent Scotland could not join EU without London’s agreement, says expert
An independent Scotland would not gain entry to the European Union without the UK government’s consent, a leading constitutional expert has warned.
Senior SNP figures have long feared that holding a referendum that is in any way doubtful in the eyes of the international community would delegitimise its result.
Fears have been expressed that EU countries would fail to recognise Scottish independence in such circumstances, with the decision in Brussels to side with Madrid after the unlawful 2017 Catalonian referendum cited as a precedent.
Marc Weller, professor of international law and international constitutional studies at the University of Cambridge, highlighted Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain’s blocking of Kosovo’s long-running bid to join the EU as a sign of a potential barrier.
Each of those five countries “face their own particular challenges concerning territorial unity”, he said, meaning that they would need to be assured that the process towards Scottish independence had the consent of the rest of the UK.
Professor Weller, who was a legal adviser on the Kosovo peace process and served as a United Nations senior mediation expert, added: “The unqualified agreement of both sides, Edinburgh and London, on the process that leads to independence would be essential.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/independent-scotland-could-not-join-eu-without-londons-agreement-says-expert-8gthrq6q8
BBC News - HS2 protesters dig tunnel to thwart Euston eviction
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55796445
The 3090 founders edition (£1400) don't sell out that quickly when they are released - next time they appear I will try to remember and ping you the hidden purchase link
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1353991515677339648
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55814922
This is tricky. Do you give the story oxygen of publicity by reporting on the denial, which the anti-vaxxers will jump on as the liazrd people cover up or do you ignore it and let the fake news potentially spread?
It certainly makes sense to distribute vaccines carefully if the Government thinks it's going to have to make do with less for a few weeks. Besides anything else, just to re-emphasise the point, the target of getting cohorts 1-4 dosed up by mid-February isn't just about Hancock getting to say we're doing well and meeting our targets - these are the people who have suffered nearly 90% of the total mortality during the epidemic.
If the North West is well ahead and London is well behind, *AND* supply becomes stretched, the Government has to ration the limited available doses carefully. Under such circumstances we cannot, I'm afraid, have Preston getting underway on the recently retired when there are a load of people in their late 70s and shielders still waiting in Greenwich.
Who writes these stupid questions?
As I said, none of us actually know the new facts, if there are any. At present, we have no verified basis for doubt, so should continue vaccinating as though nothing had been said, but there is a query which should be clarified within a few days.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1354166253070524417?s=19
Professor Weller said it “will not be possible” for the UK government “to deny a referendum indefinitely”.
Incidentally, they did not ‘ask Oxford for an expert opinion.’ They asked Lord Dacre of Glanton, who was Master of Peterhouse College, Cambridge. He was also an undistinguished historian of Tudor England who rose rapidly in his profession due to his wife’s connections, and could not read German or even speak it fluently.
No other attempt attempt was made to authenticate prior to publication. When they were published, they were speedily proved to be fakes by forensic tests, which had been refused in advance.
This does look more and more like theHitler Diaries though. An idiot who’s been hoaxed but cannot bear to admit it.
Its highly impressive.
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1354156077592555526
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2003/jan/27/guardianobituaries.booksobituaries
Na. Too busy procuring blue envelopes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/astrazeneca-vaccine-may-not-be-given-to-older-people-says-eu-medicines-chief
The EMA decision is expected on Friday.
https://twitter.com/ICNARC/status/1352712396134109188?s=19
https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1353716619588104192?s=21
I'm not so sure about that. The English NHS has managed over 75% of both the care home residents and the over 80s in the general population, and AFAIK is nowhere near running out of vaccine yet.
No-one's response to this pandemic has been perfect or anywhere close. It's possible that the Scottish rollout has just been plain old slow.
You can’t say comparing forged materials with forged materials is an attempt at authentication.
I suppose I was a bit harsh not to (separately) include Weinberg’s later analysis, but the decision to publish had been taken by then and he was working for a possible North American syndication buyer.
Edit - what we have here, in any case, is a story the manufacturer, the relevant medical agency and the alleged source have all thoroughly refuted, based on a stupid error, *that a paper is refusing to retract*. Which is extraordinary.
Simply, it's fine to say "this didn't turn out the way I wanted, but I'd rather like to move on and have a quiet life now, not re-fight old battles."
What is interesting to me is that we have never seen a decrease anything like this before. Even if you factor in the Spring 2020 peak as being 10x bigger it took a long time to subside. For the last 2 weeks we have seen cases plummeting.
This cannot of course happen forever as there will naturally be a flattening out of the decline. However, it makes me thing about what is different now to previously. Clearly schools are closed now compared with the November lockdown but schools were closed in March and we did not see declines like we have now. Mask adherence is also generally very good compared to the first peak when there was no enforcement. Both will have obviously helped but what else could it be?
In my view there are 2 factors now coming into play:
1. So many people have now had it. By Summer last year I only knew of a handful of people who thought they had had it. Now I know lots of people who have had it. Clearly these people have a level of immunity which not only protects them but also reduces transmission.
2. Vaccinations. We started early in December and although it was a slow start the numbers are starting to ramp up massively. Lots of healthcare workers have now had the vaccine (or had Covid previously). I think we are already seeing the benefits of this.
It is still very early days and obviously we all hope the numbers continue to plummet. The case numbers in the last 2 weeks give cause for some optimism.
The guidelines for administration of the second doses give the NHS quite a lot of leeway in terms of timetables. If it is felt that we're going to be a bit short of supply for a long time then, presumably, it would make sense at some point in the future to stop giving first doses to the lower priority cohorts, and start using progressively more of the vaccine available to cover the second shots. Not ease off immediately.
Right now, for reasons that have been previously explained by the scientists on a number of occasions, the priority is to get as many first doses into as many people as possible. Leaving most of your octogenarians unprotected because you want to keep some vials to go back through the care homes in ten or twelve weeks' time would be counterproductive.
It almost seems to burn itself out on a localised scale in ways we don't expect, and we also have the bit of a relative mystery that the new variant being more transmissible seems not to have translated into the same sort of problems of getting the R under 1 in a lockdown as the scientists seems to fear.
Obviously though I know nothing about epidemiology so am probably just talking shite.
https://twitter.com/phantompower14/status/1354172356353290242?s=21
I think that there are potentially 3 factors at play here in comparison with the last lockdown:
1) Care home residents having been vaccinated / not discharging into a home to cause onward spread.
2) Medical personnel having the vaccine and it having an effect in reducing onward transmission. (Wasn't there a stat along the lines of 1/3 of covid cases in the first wave were hospital acquired? I can't believe it is anything like that now)
3) The new Variant... Whilst the new variant reduces the doubling time on the 'up slope', that also means that it reduces the halving time on the 'down slope' when R is less than 1.
1. He's wrong
2. It wouldn't be of benefit to the UK to do that (which would always act rationally)
3. Doesn't matter
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1354170214292860929
Deaths there are already proportionally higher than the UK but they've likely got at least two weeks of them increasing as the new cases feed through.
Wait, I think he's wrong. He has been wrong before
https://twitter.com/sakamping/status/1354174266141532160?s=20
While there is much more ppe used now than in the spring there's also more people working and in the supermarkets which might equal out.