That's very sad. Given the population difference, looks substantially worse even than the UK right now.
The worldometer chart, if accurate, shows a much different picture for Spain than most other places with a much longer but not as high second wave starting way back in September and remaining pretty steady ever since. For quite some time they had the worse toll in Europe before Italy then us roared past.
Who knows where the final 'rank' will be, but they appear to be with us and Italy in having a torrid time.
If that's true it's simply a disaster for the world, companies everywhere will suddenly wonder whether basing themselves in the EU. The government needs to get these companies to relocate to here or Switzerland.
I think some caution of that tweet should be applied, especially given recent events.
I have seen other tweets claims something similar because they misunderstood this "monitor" the supply with push for potential ban. As yet I haven't seen a credible news source report this.
3) The new Variant... Whilst the new variant reduces the doubling time on the 'up slope', that also means that it reduces the halving time on the 'down slope' when R is less than 1.
Here are the stats from a game of football played this evening. Home side; Possession 36%; Shots 4, Corners 0. Away side; possession 64%, shots 26, corners 13. The result Home side 2, Away side 1. Bristol City V. Huddersfield Town.
Huddersfield need to sign Bristol City's striker. He is a much more clinical finisher.
I have been running my own chart looking at the rolling 7 day UK case numbers and comparing against a week previously. This shows the rate of change of the number of cases.
What is interesting to me is that we have never seen a decrease anything like this before. Even if you factor in the Spring 2020 peak as being 10x bigger it took a long time to subside. For the last 2 weeks we have seen cases plummeting.
This cannot of course happen forever as there will naturally be a flattening out of the decline. However, it makes me thing about what is different now to previously. Clearly schools are closed now compared with the November lockdown but schools were closed in March and we did not see declines like we have now. Mask adherence is also generally very good compared to the first peak when there was no enforcement. Both will have obviously helped but what else could it be?
In my view there are 2 factors now coming into play:
1. So many people have now had it. By Summer last year I only knew of a handful of people who thought they had had it. Now I know lots of people who have had it. Clearly these people have a level of immunity which not only protects them but also reduces transmission.
2. Vaccinations. We started early in December and although it was a slow start the numbers are starting to ramp up massively. Lots of healthcare workers have now had the vaccine (or had Covid previously). I think we are already seeing the benefits of this.
It is still very early days and obviously we all hope the numbers continue to plummet. The case numbers in the last 2 weeks give cause for some optimism.
There was a report in the local papers here that the University of Kent, based the case fataility rate, estimated 51% of the entire population of Folkestone and Hythe District had had it. That's not herd immunity but it does mean that there are far more people with some sort of immunity. Kent cases have come crashing down and I suspect (happy to be corrected by someone with more knowledge of actual science) that it got so much of the county there are fewer people left to infect.
The story doesn't back up the headline. He's just saying that a UDI would be a problem for future EU membership, but we know that already.
UDI is effectively a non-runner- in that the pro- Union supporters would refuse to accept the writ of Holyrood were it to attempt it.Civil and Administrative chaos would follow, with a significant section of the population continuing to follow Westminster.
That's very sad. Given the population difference, looks substantially worse even than the UK right now.
The worldometer chart, if accurate, shows a much different picture for Spain than most other places with a much longer but not as high second wave starting way back in September and remaining pretty steady ever since. For quite some time they had the worse toll in Europe before Italy then us roared past.
Who knows where the final 'rank' will be, but they appear to be with us and Italy in having a torrid time.
Cases are a catastrophic trajectory in Spain just now though, and they still haven't locked down, have they?
US Senate has confirmed the following members of Joe Biden cabinet:
> Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen (84-15)
> Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (78-22)
> Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (93-2)
> Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines (84-10)
Curious splits - what did so many more have against Blinken and Yellen I wonder.
Here are NAYS and NOT VOTING for three of four above:
JANET YELLEN as Secretary of the Treasury Nays = Barrasso (R-WY), Blackburn (R-TN)\, Boozman (R-AR), Cotton (R-AR), Cramer (R-ND), Cruz (R-TX). Hawley (R-MO), Hoeven (R-ND), Lee (R-UT), Paul (R-KY), Risch (R-ID). Scott (R-FL), Shelby (R-AL), Sullivan (R-AK), Tuberville (R-AL) Not Voting = Rubio (R-FL)
LLOYD AUSTIN as Secretary of Defense Nays = Hawley (R-MO), Lee (R-UT) Not Voting = Burr (R-NC), Capito (R-WV), Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Moran (R-KS), Tillis (R-NC)
AVRIL HAINES as Director of National Intelligence Nays = Blackburn (R-TN), Braun (R-IN), Cruz (R-TX), Ernst (R-IA), Hagerty (R-TN), Hawley (R-MO), Lee (R-UT), Marshall (R-KS), Paul (R-KY), Risch (R-ID) Not Voting = Brown (D-OH), Crapo (R-ID), Scott (R-SC), Tillis (R-NC), Toomey (R-PA). Whitehouse (D-RI)
Note the Dynamic Duo, :Bloody-Hands Hawley & Anti-Mitt Lee
3) The new Variant... Whilst the new variant reduces the doubling time on the 'up slope', that also means that it reduces the halving time on the 'down slope' when R is less than 1.
I don't think it works like that.
It doesn't. It makes the R steeper on the way up and shallower on the way down. It's why Whitty said that the death rate is going to fall very slowly, the R we saw was around 0.5-0.6 in Lockdown 1, it brought the infection rate down very fast and within a couple of weeks we'd been through three or four halving cycles. The new variant has put a lower limit on the R to around 0.7-0.8 so the halving cycle is longer, closer to 10 days.
What may be helping is that front line healthcare workers all have partial or full vaccine immunity which may be preventing the spread in hospitals which have been a huge vector of spread in the UK.
It's pretty easy to say we really don't want one, but it is pretty hard to justifiably deny one when 'I don't want it' is pretty much the main reason against. I think a lot of people who are really opposed to it, and the potential outcome, recognise that.
Boris won't do that tho (I hope). He won't simply say a flat No. He will couch it as: "we are listening, we hear the Scottish people, they want ptofound change: let's have a Royal Commission on all the options, and that must include the possibility, at some point, of a 2nd referendum. However it is my duty as PM of the whole UK to consider what is best for the whole UK, as this affects every Briton profoundly."
A gentle punt into the long grass. Pray for something else to come along.
If that's true it's simply a disaster for the world, companies everywhere will suddenly wonder whether basing themselves in the EU. The government needs to get these companies to relocate to here or Switzerland.
I think that something like this is inevitable. This is simply what happens when Power perceives that it is not getting is Due.
It's pretty easy to say we really don't want one, but it is pretty hard to justifiably deny one when 'I don't want it' is pretty much the main reason against. I think a lot of people who are really opposed to it, and the potential outcome, recognise that.
Boris won't do that tho (I hope). He won't simply say a flat No. He will couch it as: "we are listening, we hear the Scottish people, they want ptofound change: let's have a Royal Commission on all the options, and that must include the possibility, at some point, of a 2nd referendum. However it is my duty as PM of the whole UK to consider what is best for the whole UK, as this affects every Briton profoundly."
A gentle punt into the long grass. Pray for something else to come along.
It's pretty easy to say we really don't want one, but it is pretty hard to justifiably deny one when 'I don't want it' is pretty much the main reason against. I think a lot of people who are really opposed to it, and the potential outcome, recognise that.
Boris won't do that tho (I hope). He won't simply say a flat No. He will couch it as: "we are listening, we hear the Scottish people, they want ptofound change: let's have a Royal Commission on all the options, and that must include the possibility, at some point, of a 2nd referendum. However it is my duty as PM of the whole UK to consider what is best for the whole UK, as this affects every Briton profoundly."
A gentle punt into the long grass. Pray for something else to come along.
This does sound exactly the sort of thing Johnson would do.
Meanwhile - the more radical wings of the SNP will apply the pressure to do something more radical I.e UDI.
It's pretty easy to say we really don't want one, but it is pretty hard to justifiably deny one when 'I don't want it' is pretty much the main reason against. I think a lot of people who are really opposed to it, and the potential outcome, recognise that.
Boris won't do that tho (I hope). He won't simply say a flat No. He will couch it as: "we are listening, we hear the Scottish people, they want ptofound change: let's have a Royal Commission on all the options, and that must include the possibility, at some point, of a 2nd referendum. However it is my duty as PM of the whole UK to consider what is best for the whole UK, as this affects every Briton profoundly."
A gentle punt into the long grass. Pray for something else to come along.
Not possible.
If Unionists want to maximise the secessionist appeal, the quickest way is to deny a referendum which has been ordered by their government.
Those frothing at the mouth to escalate EU-UK tensions should have a think about calming down before reacting to twitter nonsense.
There's nothing wrong about reacting to stories on their presented terms, so long as there is a reaction to the story being revealed as nonsense as well. eg 'Wow this is terrible!' 'Oh thank goodness, it's not true'.
I think the confusion is between "power to block exports" and "call to block exports". Is this another case of "British virus" vs "variant from Britain".
He's just an American commentator reading something on twitter and sticking "BREAKING" in front of his interpretation of it.
Just an American commentator?
Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing Epidemiologist & Health Economist. Senior Fellow, FAS. Fmr 16 yrs @Harvard . Health & justice advocate.
He might of course be wrong but the only political positions I have seen him take were anti Trump
Yes, but I will say that he often takes strident positions on COVID, and I don't think his analysis is at all deep. I see that he's retweeted a lot, but I wouldn't use him as a reliable source myself.
Those frothing at the mouth to escalate EU-UK tensions should have a think about calming down before reacting to twitter nonsense.
There's nothing wrong about reacting to stories on their presented terms, so long as there is a reaction to the story being revealed as nonsense as well.
I note that there is no source for that Tweeter's assertion that Germany has demanded that there should be no vaccine exports from the EU.
HOWEVER, we should act now in case this should become a reality - taking on board Gallowgate's argument that even if it was manufactured in the UK, we could still face issues getting the ingredients, it's still much safer for these things to be manufactured here.
Yes, I'm more or less bilingual - this isn't about the Handelsblatt rumour, but abour AZ only delivering 40% of the expected amount and Spahn calling for an export curb, same story as in the English sources. That IS just politics, I think.
Read the text and direct quotes, not the headlines please!
They are not talking about banning exports, but tracking them with permits.
------
“It's not about ‘EU first’. It's about Europe's fair share,” said Mr Spahn. “That's why I think it would make sense to have a restriction on exports. It would mean that vaccines that leave the EU need a permit, so that at least we know what's produced in Europe, what is leaving Europe, where it's leaving Europe for, and we have a fair distribution.”
------
It is quite clearly not an export ban because he is talking about where the vaccines are being exported to.
The media will call it a ban, not because it is one, but because they know it will create a frenzy and drive advertising and profits.
I'm honestly shocked that Germany of all countries is pushing for export restrictions. Given their economic model becoming a nation that interferes in the ability of companies to export goods seems like a very poor idea. I could understand the French taking a more hard line stance, but to their credit the French seem to be keeping their powder dry for now. I think Macron probably realises putting up export bans would be a long term death knell of the EU having a major pharmaceuticals industry. Companies would have to be based in nations that won't fuck with export contracts for those contracts to have any value for clients.
If the EU does do this countries all over the world will insist that manufacturing takes place in a jurisdiction which won't play these kinds of stupid games. The US receives supply from the Belgian production line, this kind of stuff has the potential to break up the Western post war alliance.
It's pretty easy to say we really don't want one, but it is pretty hard to justifiably deny one when 'I don't want it' is pretty much the main reason against. I think a lot of people who are really opposed to it, and the potential outcome, recognise that.
Boris won't do that tho (I hope). He won't simply say a flat No. He will couch it as: "we are listening, we hear the Scottish people, they want ptofound change: let's have a Royal Commission on all the options, and that must include the possibility, at some point, of a 2nd referendum. However it is my duty as PM of the whole UK to consider what is best for the whole UK, as this affects every Briton profoundly."
A gentle punt into the long grass. Pray for something else to come along.
Not possible.
If Unionists want to maximise the secessionist appeal, the quickest way is to deny a referendum which has been ordered by their government.
Er, that's your opinion. It it not factually "impossible"
Those frothing at the mouth to escalate EU-UK tensions should have a think about calming down before reacting to twitter nonsense.
There's nothing wrong about reacting to stories on their presented terms, so long as there is a reaction to the story being revealed as nonsense as well. eg 'Wow this is terrible!' 'Oh thank goodness, it's not true'.
Or ‘Wow this is terrible!’ ‘Oh hell, it’s even more terrible that it’s not true!!!’.
Those frothing at the mouth to escalate EU-UK tensions should have a think about calming down before reacting to twitter nonsense.
There's nothing wrong about reacting to stories on their presented terms, so long as there is a reaction to the story being revealed as nonsense as well. eg 'Wow this is terrible!' 'Oh thank goodness, it's not true'.
Of course there is! It leads to Trumpism and division. Readers need to understand that:
Twitter is inherently unreliable and sensationalist as a news feed Proper media companies use headlines to drive advertising, they are often completely different to the substance of the story
Developments: the head of the European Medicines Agency has now also suggested some age restriction *might* be appropriate, and AZ's CEO has said he's sure it's fine but he'd understand if countries were cautious about giving it to older people - e.g. giving another vaccine to the elderly. The 8% figure remains fiercely denied by the Health Ministry and that part of the story looks as though it comes from a single individual.
Hypothetically, blocking orders meant for customers outside of the EU might be justified if, say, Pfizer were having production problems which meant it could not fulfil all of its orders properly, but were using the reduced production available to supply said customers in full at the expense of cutting supplies to the EU, rather than spreading the pain evenly.
If, however, "fair share" is code for "we're behind the Brits and the Yanks through our own uselessness, so we're going to nick their stuff so that we can catch up," then that's a different matter.
This may well all come to nothing. Let's wait and see.
Read the text and direct quotes, not the headlines please!
They are not talking about banning exports, but tracking them with permits.
------
“It's not about ‘EU first’. It's about Europe's fair share,” said Mr Spahn. “That's why I think it would make sense to have a restriction on exports. It would mean that vaccines that leave the EU need a permit, so that at least we know what's produced in Europe, what is leaving Europe, where it's leaving Europe for, and we have a fair distribution.”
------
It is quite clearly not an export ban because he is talking about where the vaccines are being exported to.
The media will call it a ban, not because it is one, but because they know it will create a frenzy and drive advertising and profits.
3) The new Variant... Whilst the new variant reduces the doubling time on the 'up slope', that also means that it reduces the halving time on the 'down slope' when R is less than 1.
I don't think it works like that.
It doesn't. It makes the R steeper on the way up and shallower on the way down. It's why Whitty said that the death rate is going to fall very slowly, the R we saw was around 0.5-0.6 in Lockdown 1, it brought the infection rate down very fast and within a couple of weeks we'd been through three or four halving cycles. The new variant has put a lower limit on the R to around 0.7-0.8 so the halving cycle is longer, closer to 10 days.
Sorry but perhaps I wasn't particularly clear - what I meant was that due to the infection cycle being shorter then *for the same R* the halving cycle is shorter. The increased infectiousness means that you need more measures to get R down the same level / R is naturally higher with the new variant (hence we are seeing something like 0.8 instead of 0.6), but at an R of 0.8 the halving cycle is shorter due to the infection cycle being shorter.
It's pretty easy to say we really don't want one, but it is pretty hard to justifiably deny one when 'I don't want it' is pretty much the main reason against. I think a lot of people who are really opposed to it, and the potential outcome, recognise that.
Boris won't do that tho (I hope). He won't simply say a flat No. He will couch it as: "we are listening, we hear the Scottish people, they want ptofound change: let's have a Royal Commission on all the options, and that must include the possibility, at some point, of a 2nd referendum. However it is my duty as PM of the whole UK to consider what is best for the whole UK, as this affects every Briton profoundly."
A gentle punt into the long grass. Pray for something else to come along.
Not possible.
If Unionists want to maximise the secessionist appeal, the quickest way is to deny a referendum which has been ordered by their government.
Er, that's your opinion. It it not factually "impossible"
I remember a time when Theresa May saying no was meant to have that effect. It had the opposite.
Truth is - the sides are probably broadly split when it comes down to it - some will see it as heart over head, and vice versa. Some will want a broadly quiet few years free of constitutional wrangling, whilst others will relish it.
Christ, Vanguard’s commander was just keying in Berlin’s coordinates.
Presumably the Handelsblatt burn the witch people will be sharpening their pitchforks for this guy.
Twitter is now of the opinion that the Handelsblatt story is indeed bollocks, especially the 8% stuff. And a lot of the most angry critiques are coming from Germans, saying this is just fuelling anti-vaxxery
Which it is. The flipside of the coin is that social media anti-vaxxers have seized this story and are gleefully running with it
Read the text and direct quotes, not the headlines please!
They are not talking about banning exports, but tracking them with permits.
------
“It's not about ‘EU first’. It's about Europe's fair share,” said Mr Spahn. “That's why I think it would make sense to have a restriction on exports. It would mean that vaccines that leave the EU need a permit, so that at least we know what's produced in Europe, what is leaving Europe, where it's leaving Europe for, and we have a fair distribution.”
------
It is quite clearly not an export ban because he is talking about where the vaccines are being exported to.
The media will call it a ban, not because it is one, but because they know it will create a frenzy and drive advertising and profits.
But that begs the question, who decides what is fair? The pharma companies have contracts to fulfil, all of them have different terms. What if the commission decides distribution to the US or UK is unfair given that both have got significant domestic manufacturing of different vaccines (Moderna/Pfizer/AZ for the US and AZ/Novovax/Valneva for the UK).
There is no such thing as fair/unfair. There are private companies and contracted deliveries. They aren't European vaccines any more than our AZ production is UK vaccine. Our AZ and Pfizer contracts (and the US as well) prioritised supply and timely delivery over price. The EU prioritised collective bargaining power to reduce prices. The EU contracts are written to have lower prices, that was their decision and our contracts are written to have specific delivery schedules which we paid a premium for, that was our decision.
There's no such thing as fair. There are international companies with contracts, nothing more than that.
3) The new Variant... Whilst the new variant reduces the doubling time on the 'up slope', that also means that it reduces the halving time on the 'down slope' when R is less than 1.
I don't think it works like that.
It doesn't. It makes the R steeper on the way up and shallower on the way down. It's why Whitty said that the death rate is going to fall very slowly, the R we saw was around 0.5-0.6 in Lockdown 1, it brought the infection rate down very fast and within a couple of weeks we'd been through three or four halving cycles. The new variant has put a lower limit on the R to around 0.7-0.8 so the halving cycle is longer, closer to 10 days.
What may be helping is that front line healthcare workers all have partial or full vaccine immunity which may be preventing the spread in hospitals which have been a huge vector of spread in the UK.
This lockdown does seem slightly softer than the original one though. Do you think that could account for the R difference now, while the 70% transmissibility boost before Christmas was due to the new strain being better at spreading among schoolchildren?
It's pretty easy to say we really don't want one, but it is pretty hard to justifiably deny one when 'I don't want it' is pretty much the main reason against. I think a lot of people who are really opposed to it, and the potential outcome, recognise that.
Boris won't do that tho (I hope). He won't simply say a flat No. He will couch it as: "we are listening, we hear the Scottish people, they want ptofound change: let's have a Royal Commission on all the options, and that must include the possibility, at some point, of a 2nd referendum. However it is my duty as PM of the whole UK to consider what is best for the whole UK, as this affects every Briton profoundly."
A gentle punt into the long grass. Pray for something else to come along.
Not possible.
If Unionists want to maximise the secessionist appeal, the quickest way is to deny a referendum which has been ordered by their government.
Er, that's your opinion. It it not factually "impossible"
We're talking about two different things - the Scottish Government holding a referendum on the issue which carries no legal weight - that would be impossible for Boris to stop unless he favours strong arm tactics (which he doesn't), and he shouldn't anyway. Just let it continue on. If nothing else, it will be a magnificent source of data on who are the indy voters, where they come from, etc. etc., for a future *real* indyref.
A legally recognised Indyref - yes he should politely delay, as is his right. He should abide by the findings of the commission. And in the meantime, seek to re-establish a real relationship between the people of Scotland and the UK Government.
I'm honestly shocked that Germany of all countries is pushing for export restrictions. Given their economic model becoming a nation that interferes in the ability of companies to export goods seems like a very poor idea. I could understand the French taking a more hard line stance, but to their credit the French seem to be keeping their powder dry for now. I think Macron probably realises putting up export bans would be a long term death knell of the EU having a major pharmaceuticals industry. Companies would have to be based in nations that won't fuck with export contracts for those contracts to have any value for clients.
If the EU does do this countries all over the world will insist that manufacturing takes place in a jurisdiction which won't play these kinds of stupid games. The US receives supply from the Belgian production line, this kind of stuff has the potential to break up the Western post war alliance.
It is a very serious development and the consequence will be to the EU's reputation and companies will simply relocate away from them
Read the text and direct quotes, not the headlines please!
They are not talking about banning exports, but tracking them with permits.
------
“It's not about ‘EU first’. It's about Europe's fair share,” said Mr Spahn. “That's why I think it would make sense to have a restriction on exports. It would mean that vaccines that leave the EU need a permit, so that at least we know what's produced in Europe, what is leaving Europe, where it's leaving Europe for, and we have a fair distribution.”
------
It is quite clearly not an export ban because he is talking about where the vaccines are being exported to.
The media will call it a ban, not because it is one, but because they know it will create a frenzy and drive advertising and profits.
"restrictions"...... "permits".....
I have a pin if you would like to count the number of angels dancing upon it.....
Those frothing at the mouth to escalate EU-UK tensions should have a think about calming down before reacting to twitter nonsense.
There's nothing wrong about reacting to stories on their presented terms, so long as there is a reaction to the story being revealed as nonsense as well. eg 'Wow this is terrible!' 'Oh thank goodness, it's not true'.
Of course there is! It leads to Trumpism and division. Readers need to understand that:
Twitter is inherently unreliable and sensationalist as a news feed Proper media companies use headlines to drive advertising, they are often completely different to the substance of the story
Having an instant reaction is fine and natural, so long as it doesn't drive your response from then on no matter what else is seen, or you feed that reaction. Shocking comments are shocking, so it's ok to be shocked (you can see I am a wordsmith), I don't see a problem with that - it doesn't lead to Trumpism unless people stay in that instant reaction even after seeing the truth. Nor does it lead to division - people immediately seeing a story was refuted and acknowledging that is not divisive.
Christ, Vanguard’s commander was just keying in Berlin’s coordinates.
Presumably the Handelsblatt burn the witch people will be sharpening their pitchforks for this guy.
Twitter is now of the opinion that the Handelsblatt story is indeed bollocks, especially the 8% stuff. And a lot of the most angry critiques are coming from Germans, saying this is just fuelling anti-vaxxery
Which it is. The flipside of the coin is that social media anti-vaxxers have seized this story and are gleefully running with it
The anti-vaxxers can do their bit for herd immunity by getting infected.
Meanwhile the vaccine they would have received will go to someone else.
With 'someone' in the German government either maliciously undermining AZ through false info leaking or leaking genuine concerns about AZ, then securing all other supplies produced would become much more vital I suppose.
Yes, seems to me they have no case to complain about AZ exporting stuff unless there's a firm contract, since they've not even approved it yet. Pfizer, maybe.
Read the text and direct quotes, not the headlines please!
They are not talking about banning exports, but tracking them with permits.
------
“It's not about ‘EU first’. It's about Europe's fair share,” said Mr Spahn. “That's why I think it would make sense to have a restriction on exports. It would mean that vaccines that leave the EU need a permit, so that at least we know what's produced in Europe, what is leaving Europe, where it's leaving Europe for, and we have a fair distribution.”
------
It is quite clearly not an export ban because he is talking about where the vaccines are being exported to.
The media will call it a ban, not because it is one, but because they know it will create a frenzy and drive advertising and profits.
"restrictions"...... "permits".....
I have a pin if you would like to count the number of angels dancing upon it.....
The question is actually what happens if someone in Berlin decides that it's unfair distribution. No one seems to want to ask/answer that question.
I have a lot of time and respect for the Speccie. Of all the national papers it is the one whose views are closest to my own in general.
Even if they don't want independence, even if they're wholeheartedly against it, they respect democracy. That is quite right.
Some people here take an "ends justify the means" approach to it and the idea that blocking independence by blocking democracy and instituting violence works because it blocks independence. The ends do not justify the means.
I'm honestly shocked that Germany of all countries is pushing for export restrictions. Given their economic model becoming a nation that interferes in the ability of companies to export goods seems like a very poor idea. I could understand the French taking a more hard line stance, but to their credit the French seem to be keeping their powder dry for now. I think Macron probably realises putting up export bans would be a long term death knell of the EU having a major pharmaceuticals industry. Companies would have to be based in nations that won't fuck with export contracts for those contracts to have any value for clients.
If the EU does do this countries all over the world will insist that manufacturing takes place in a jurisdiction which won't play these kinds of stupid games. The US receives supply from the Belgian production line, this kind of stuff has the potential to break up the Western post war alliance.
It will also play very VERY badly in America. Pfizer is an American company, America has poured billions into vaccine production. If the EU tries to halt contracted vaccine supplies by an American company to close American allies like the UK or Canada (let alone the USA) then Biden will go ballistic. It will poison EU-USA relations just when the EU wants to repair them. Biden will have to go mad because he will have Trumpite Republicans snarling at him if he doesn't.
For that reason I do not believe it will happen. It is still a remarkably stupid thing for a German politician to even suggest. What's wrong with them?
Here are the stats from a game of football played this evening. Home side; Possession 36%; Shots 4, Corners 0. Away side; possession 64%, shots 26, corners 13. The result Home side 2, Away side 1. Bristol City V. Huddersfield Town.
Huddersfield need to sign Bristol City's striker. He is a much more clinical finisher.
As a Bristol City fan I can tell you this is not that uncommon. We tend to play as a counter-attacking side even at home.
Unfortunately we have had a pattern in recent seasons where we flirt with the playoffs before running out of gas in the final 10 games (I think the style takes a lot out of us)
I'm honestly shocked that Germany of all countries is pushing for export restrictions. Given their economic model becoming a nation that interferes in the ability of companies to export goods seems like a very poor idea. I could understand the French taking a more hard line stance, but to their credit the French seem to be keeping their powder dry for now. I think Macron probably realises putting up export bans would be a long term death knell of the EU having a major pharmaceuticals industry. Companies would have to be based in nations that won't fuck with export contracts for those contracts to have any value for clients.
If the EU does do this countries all over the world will insist that manufacturing takes place in a jurisdiction which won't play these kinds of stupid games. The US receives supply from the Belgian production line, this kind of stuff has the potential to break up the Western post war alliance.
It is a very serious development and the consequence will be to the EU's reputation and companies will simply relocate away from them
We need to ensure as best we can that the vaccine doses that we have ordered and paid for are not going to be manufactured in the EU. A country that isn't the EU is preferable, this country is ideal.
I am asssuming that the new Oxfordshire facility has already been earmarked to produce AZN/Oxford?
I suspect he is at last beginning to appreciate the enormity of his repeated errors of judgment over the past year. And a leader who has to apologise to the country and take responsibility for such a colossal loss of life must surely be on borrowed time. The vaccine might save him for a few months but not for long I think.
3) The new Variant... Whilst the new variant reduces the doubling time on the 'up slope', that also means that it reduces the halving time on the 'down slope' when R is less than 1.
I don't think it works like that.
It doesn't. It makes the R steeper on the way up and shallower on the way down. It's why Whitty said that the death rate is going to fall very slowly, the R we saw was around 0.5-0.6 in Lockdown 1, it brought the infection rate down very fast and within a couple of weeks we'd been through three or four halving cycles. The new variant has put a lower limit on the R to around 0.7-0.8 so the halving cycle is longer, closer to 10 days.
What may be helping is that front line healthcare workers all have partial or full vaccine immunity which may be preventing the spread in hospitals which have been a huge vector of spread in the UK.
This lockdown does seem slightly softer than the original one though. Do you think that could account for the R difference now, while the 70% transmissibility boost before Christmas was due to the new strain being better at spreading among schoolchildren?
Judging by the available data we can see the current lockdown has a slightly higher baseline activity level, but also has got mask wearing at about 70-80% indoors vs 0% in March. I think the latest estimate is about 40% higher R, which is where I think we're at. The current NPIs should produce a much better reduction in R than we've currently seen.
Happily we may have some early vaccination effects coming through in the case load and hopefully this feeds into the hospitalisation rate next week.
Read the text and direct quotes, not the headlines please!
They are not talking about banning exports, but tracking them with permits.
------
“It's not about ‘EU first’. It's about Europe's fair share,” said Mr Spahn. “That's why I think it would make sense to have a restriction on exports. It would mean that vaccines that leave the EU need a permit, so that at least we know what's produced in Europe, what is leaving Europe, where it's leaving Europe for, and we have a fair distribution.”
------
It is quite clearly not an export ban because he is talking about where the vaccines are being exported to.
The media will call it a ban, not because it is one, but because they know it will create a frenzy and drive advertising and profits.
"restrictions"...... "permits".....
I have a pin if you would like to count the number of angels dancing upon it.....
The question is actually what happens if someone in Berlin decides that it's unfair distribution. No one seems to want to ask/answer that question.
If you think its going to happen my bet offer still stands:
"What price is anyone willing to lay me on there being covid 19 vaccine exported from the EU to third countries? I will accept evens that they are allowed for any month of your choice up to £100 from 5 people. If I win I will donate the money to NHS Charities Together, if you win you can do what you like with the money.
I suspect he is at last beginning to appreciate the enormity of his repeated errors of judgment over the past year. And a leader who has to apologise to the country and take responsibility for such a colossal loss of life must surely be on borrowed time. The vaccine might save him for a few months but not for long I think.
I strongly suspect he will still be there in 2024 when there is a GE.
Brexit Bin 🇪🇺 #BrexitReality @BrexitBin Veteran Remainer 🇪🇺 Lives in Germany & GB. Tweets about the #Brexit utopia of #Gammonopolis *Non Partisan* I block Bots•Trolls•Brexidiots•Lexidiots•Covidiots EU & GammonopolisJoined September 2016 26.3K Following 57.1K Followers
Ha! Just noticed that he "blocks Covidiots"...
I'm assuming that everyone has read the threat quoted from the original journalist, and it seems to me he's walking back his allegations. (Albeit without admitting he's doing so, or altering the original story.)
Specifically, this is no longer a scientific paper or anything concrete, but is now "(unnamed) German officials estimate". That's VERY different framing from the original article, and very different from published AZN figures, which imply 70% or so accuracy (albeit on an incredibly small sample size).
At the very least, the journalist has been negligent in not getting comment from AZN before publishing the paper (something that they should always do). In this case, his attempt to change what he is claiming (without apology or correction) compounds his error.
I don't see how he can keep his job, and I don't see how Handelsblatt avoids an apology.
Also, I don't see how he can avoid either naming some of the German officials, or showing this data with "8%". Journalistic privilege does not apply here. This is a matter of global importance: the world needs to know ASAP
You can't just say "Oh we have the data but we can't reveal it", when millions of lives are at risk, if that data is correct
If he can't reveal this, it becomes no more than criminally irresponsible rumour-mongering.
The German government also denied the story quite emphatically, no?
So: one of three things is the case
1. He made a mistake and is now lying to cover it up 2. The German government wanted to spread disinformation about the vaccine and is now hanging their patsy out to dry 3. A German official made an off the cuff comment, that the journalist blew up into a full scale story
My guess is that (1) is the most likely, simply because he's changed his story. I suspect if it had been (2), he would have said something in the original article like "an analysis performed by the government...". Also, if it's (2), and he's being hung out to dry, then he'll probably end up naming names.
(3) is also a possibility. And it's also possible (3) was semi malicious, by someone who didn't like the Brits.
Read the text and direct quotes, not the headlines please!
They are not talking about banning exports, but tracking them with permits.
------
“It's not about ‘EU first’. It's about Europe's fair share,” said Mr Spahn. “That's why I think it would make sense to have a restriction on exports. It would mean that vaccines that leave the EU need a permit, so that at least we know what's produced in Europe, what is leaving Europe, where it's leaving Europe for, and we have a fair distribution.”
------
It is quite clearly not an export ban because he is talking about where the vaccines are being exported to.
The media will call it a ban, not because it is one, but because they know it will create a frenzy and drive advertising and profits.
But that begs the question, who decides what is fair? The pharma companies have contracts to fulfil, all of them have different terms. What if the commission decides distribution to the US or UK is unfair given that both have got significant domestic manufacturing of different vaccines (Moderna/Pfizer/AZ for the US and AZ/Novovax/Valneva for the UK).
There is no such thing as fair/unfair. There are private companies and contracted deliveries. They aren't European vaccines any more than our AZ production is UK vaccine. Our AZ and Pfizer contracts (and the US as well) prioritised supply and timely delivery over price. The EU prioritised collective bargaining power to reduce prices. The EU contracts are written to have lower prices, that was their decision and our contracts are written to have specific delivery schedules which we paid a premium for, that was our decision.
There's no such thing as fair. There are international companies with contracts, nothing more than that.
Talking of Ian banks - I wonder if anyone is considering the business plan in The Business.
Comments
Who knows where the final 'rank' will be, but they appear to be with us and Italy in having a torrid time.
I have seen other tweets claims something similar because they misunderstood this "monitor" the supply with push for potential ban. As yet I haven't seen a credible news source report this.
My own view is that the Tories will start to struggle when the financial implications become clearer. Although Johnson seems to be able to defy logic.
I's Excession (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excession) again - the lovely nice people have something they NEED.
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
Epidemiologist & Health Economist. Senior Fellow, FAS. Fmr 16 yrs
@Harvard
. Health & justice advocate.
He might of course be wrong but the only political positions I have seen him take were anti Trump
The important thing is he must stick to his guns no matter what, even if contradicted.
We must keep our Essence Pure...
JANET YELLEN as Secretary of the Treasury
Nays = Barrasso (R-WY), Blackburn (R-TN)\, Boozman (R-AR), Cotton (R-AR), Cramer (R-ND), Cruz (R-TX). Hawley (R-MO), Hoeven (R-ND), Lee (R-UT), Paul (R-KY), Risch (R-ID). Scott (R-FL), Shelby (R-AL), Sullivan (R-AK), Tuberville (R-AL)
Not Voting = Rubio (R-FL)
LLOYD AUSTIN as Secretary of Defense
Nays = Hawley (R-MO), Lee (R-UT)
Not Voting = Burr (R-NC), Capito (R-WV), Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Moran (R-KS), Tillis (R-NC)
AVRIL HAINES as Director of National Intelligence
Nays = Blackburn (R-TN), Braun (R-IN), Cruz (R-TX), Ernst (R-IA), Hagerty (R-TN), Hawley (R-MO), Lee (R-UT), Marshall (R-KS), Paul (R-KY), Risch (R-ID)
Not Voting = Brown (D-OH), Crapo (R-ID), Scott (R-SC), Tillis (R-NC), Toomey (R-PA). Whitehouse (D-RI)
Note the Dynamic Duo, :Bloody-Hands Hawley & Anti-Mitt Lee
He unsurprisingly dislikes Trump as he is a Democrat politician who has stood for Congress.
What may be helping is that front line healthcare workers all have partial or full vaccine immunity which may be preventing the spread in hospitals which have been a huge vector of spread in the UK.
A gentle punt into the long grass. Pray for something else to come along.
Portugal has 1,082 covid deaths per million population; the UK has 1,471
It's not hard to find out the numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
And Euro news channel tonight were all over the story including seeking UK supplies from here
https://www.focus.de/gesundheit/coronavirus/im-zdf-morgenmagazin-nach-astrazeneca-fiasko-spahn-fordert-exportbeschraenkungen-beim-impfstoff_id_12910621.html
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1354139301437710336?s=20
The biggest mystery in politics: why is Gavin Williamson still in a job?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/26/biggest-mystery-politics-gavin-williamson-still-job/
Why class clown Gavin Williamson has never seemed under more pressure to do his homework
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/26/gavin-williamson-hugely-unpopular-post-convenient-shield/
Meanwhile - the more radical wings of the SNP will apply the pressure to do something more radical I.e UDI.
If Unionists want to maximise the secessionist appeal, the quickest way is to deny a referendum which has been ordered by their government.
https://www.ft.com/content/ed0059c9-1ea5-4ba9-a1ff-88004b59e71d
--AS
Presumably the Handelsblatt burn the witch people will be sharpening their pitchforks for this guy.
Halting legally contracted vaccines bound for the UK would, in my mind, be an actual hostile act
HOWEVER, we should act now in case this should become a reality - taking on board Gallowgate's argument that even if it was manufactured in the UK, we could still face issues getting the ingredients, it's still much safer for these things to be manufactured here.
Nobody yet seems to know where Johnson and Johnson are making their vaccine - they have bases in Shanghai, Ireland, Belgium, and obviously the States: https://www.jnj.com/innovation/6-super-sustainable-johnson-johnson-sites-around-the-world
Does anyone have a lead on this information?
So I should have said 'currently' rather than 'already'.
They are not talking about banning exports, but tracking them with permits.
------
“It's not about ‘EU first’. It's about Europe's fair share,” said Mr Spahn. “That's why I think it would make sense to have a restriction on exports. It would mean that vaccines that leave the EU need a permit, so that at least we know what's produced in Europe, what is leaving Europe, where it's leaving Europe for, and we have a fair distribution.”
------
It is quite clearly not an export ban because he is talking about where the vaccines are being exported to.
The media will call it a ban, not because it is one, but because they know it will create a frenzy and drive advertising and profits.
If the EU does do this countries all over the world will insist that manufacturing takes place in a jurisdiction which won't play these kinds of stupid games. The US receives supply from the Belgian production line, this kind of stuff has the potential to break up the Western post war alliance.
His best was Use of Weapons - i like the layers of implication in the ending. Read that and you'll never look at a chair in quite the same way, again.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1354183672107315201?s=20
Twitter is inherently unreliable and sensationalist as a news feed
Proper media companies use headlines to drive advertising, they are often completely different to the substance of the story
Tbf I suspect the whole of western Europe and North America will end up in a similar place by the end of this.
If, however, "fair share" is code for "we're behind the Brits and the Yanks through our own uselessness, so we're going to nick their stuff so that we can catch up," then that's a different matter.
This may well all come to nothing. Let's wait and see.
Truth is - the sides are probably broadly split when it comes down to it - some will see it as heart over head, and vice versa. Some will want a broadly quiet few years free of constitutional wrangling, whilst others will relish it.
But I could never get into any of the others.
Which it is. The flipside of the coin is that social media anti-vaxxers have seized this story and are gleefully running with it
There is no such thing as fair/unfair. There are private companies and contracted deliveries. They aren't European vaccines any more than our AZ production is UK vaccine. Our AZ and Pfizer contracts (and the US as well) prioritised supply and timely delivery over price. The EU prioritised collective bargaining power to reduce prices. The EU contracts are written to have lower prices, that was their decision and our contracts are written to have specific delivery schedules which we paid a premium for, that was our decision.
There's no such thing as fair. There are international companies with contracts, nothing more than that.
A legally recognised Indyref - yes he should politely delay, as is his right. He should abide by the findings of the commission. And in the meantime, seek to re-establish a real relationship between the people of Scotland and the UK Government.
I have a pin if you would like to count the number of angels dancing upon it.....
Meanwhile the vaccine they would have received will go to someone else.
Even if they don't want independence, even if they're wholeheartedly against it, they respect democracy. That is quite right.
Some people here take an "ends justify the means" approach to it and the idea that blocking independence by blocking democracy and instituting violence works because it blocks independence. The ends do not justify the means.
Consider Phlebas is grand space opera to the max.
Look to Windward is a meditation on failure and loss.
Use of Weapons is the thinking mans John Wick.
I could never get into Fearsome Engine - the phonetic thing just bored me....
For that reason I do not believe it will happen. It is still a remarkably stupid thing for a German politician to even suggest. What's wrong with them?
here is another example:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54743315
Unfortunately we have had a pattern in recent seasons where we flirt with the playoffs before running out of gas in the final 10 games (I think the style takes a lot out of us)
I am asssuming that the new Oxfordshire facility has already been earmarked to produce AZN/Oxford?
Happily we may have some early vaccination effects coming through in the case load and hopefully this feeds into the hospitalisation rate next week.
"What price is anyone willing to lay me on there being covid 19 vaccine exported from the EU to third countries? I will accept evens that they are allowed for any month of your choice up to £100 from 5 people. If I win I will donate the money to NHS Charities Together, if you win you can do what you like with the money.
Any takers? If not, lets stop calling it a ban?"
The thread is somewhat pathetic
https://twitter.com/washingtonski/status/1354185771851329539?s=20
What a f*cking weasel
So: one of three things is the case
1. He made a mistake and is now lying to cover it up
2. The German government wanted to spread disinformation about the vaccine and is now hanging their patsy out to dry
3. A German official made an off the cuff comment, that the journalist blew up into a full scale story
My guess is that (1) is the most likely, simply because he's changed his story. I suspect if it had been (2), he would have said something in the original article like "an analysis performed by the government...". Also, if it's (2), and he's being hung out to dry, then he'll probably end up naming names.
(3) is also a possibility. And it's also possible (3) was semi malicious, by someone who didn't like the Brits.
Or, of course, (4), his source was @Foxy.