Senedd shake-up: what happens if Welsh Labour lose their majority? – politicalbetting.com

First of the insomniacs.

Indeed, there was no automaticity to what happened in Scotland – we should remember that in early 2011, Scottish Labour was well-set to evict the SNP from office. Only the far superior campaigning skills of Alex Salmond as against Iain Gray turned the tables.

That’s interesting. I wasn’t really paying attention to politics around that time as I was too busy with work, but I reckon the SNP were always likely to win in 2011 (though not necessarily a majority). I think the only reason Labour hung on to their Scottish seats at Westminster in 2010 was Gordon Brown.

Just to add, the bigger risk for the Tories is being seen to support a nationalist party. It could hurt them future elections in both Wales and Scotland.

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

First of the insomniacs.

5.21 am seems perfectly reasonable

A pilot friend of mine is fond of telling me that these are merely numbers on a clock face. I find it quite helpful when I occasionally wake at 3 am. If I reach 5 am then it's a good night's sleep.

Oh and good morning

Sadly I’ve been up since 03:10 - still, I have plenty of books to read from Christmas and can go back to bed in a bit.

Good piece as usual David. It looks very much as if Labour will lose, but there’s no clear route for the others to form a government - so we could indeed see some unlikely bedfellows.

Hopefully a reminder to the bookies to get some more markets up on the local elections, if they are indeed going ahead as planned. Betfair only has London Mayor up at the moment.

Good morning, everyone.

F1: Ladbrokes' odds are unchanged, but Betfair's have Bottas down to 8 and Russell 9 for the title. Sadly lays aren't close, 14.5 and 20 respectively otherwise I'd be tempted to hedge bets made already.

Testing is about six weeks away with the first race a week or two after that. Every other driver was confirmed weeks if not months ago. I do expect Hamilton to re-sign but it's peculiar it's taking so long.

Whatever the polls, experience shows if you put a stubby pencil in their hands, muscle-memory makes the Welsh vote for Labour.

MattW said:

On topic (remarkably).

Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.

It looks to me as if there may well be no possible Welsh government from those polling figures. I think Plaid may do better than expected, once they spread into the valleys it will be like the SNP. That disproportionate AMS system gives Labour leverage, but levers do work both ways, and could see a Labour collapse if it falls much further.

In other news, I see Zimbabwe has now lost two cabinet ministers to covid, Malawi lost two cabinet ministers last week. With the age spectrum of African demographics (about half the population under 18) I would not expect the raw numbers to look too bad for covid deaths, even if recording was reliable, but it could be very severe in the older age groups there. Africa has a relatively small amount of human capital, and cannot afford to lose much.

OldKingCole said:

MattW said:

On topic (remarkably).

Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.

An inch of snow for me, and quite foggy. Will find out how the puppy likes it shortly.

https://twitter.com/chadopitz/status/1352129769198895104?s=21

Welsh politics is difficult (for outsiders?) to decipher.

Are Plaid Cymru essentially left-wing party? One of the strengths of the SNP was that it actually played to both left and right, although Sturgeon has moved it toward the left.

One notable thing is the high share for Abolish the Assembly and Reform U.K. That makes 11% in total for the hard right, which is presumably a drag on the Tory vote.

The Splendid Rose, we can certainly agree the EU's bureaucratic approach has buggered things up for most of the continent.

On vaccine: I would argue this is a stopped clock telling the right time. Boris Johnson is a cash-splurging simpleton. It just so happens that splurging cash on the vaccine was 100% the right thing to do, and any higher costs (the EU has cheaper vaccines) are more than made up for by economic savings by achieving positive healthcare results.

I agree on Sir Keir. He's boring. But a grown-up. I'd take him over the incumbent. Right now, I'm very unlikely to vote Conservative if the PM isn't changed pre-election. Not persuaded to vote for Labour, as yet, not least because of the forthcoming devolution policy which I suspect will be carving England into pieces.

Mr. B2, I think my previous dog was a puppy at that time. Despite being short-haired and having no fur at all on some of his undercarriage he didn't seem to care being belly-deep in the garden snow (this was when he was too young to go for walks because he hadn't had all his shots).

@Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

Foxy said:

It looks to me as if there may well be no possible Welsh government from those polling figures. I think Plaid may do better than expected, once they spread into the valleys it will be like the SNP. That disproportionate AMS system gives Labour leverage, but levers do work both ways, and could see a Labour collapse if it falls much further.

Yep, having two thirds constituency seats looks rather like a gerrymander in favour of Labour, although as you say it could suddenly start to turn against them like it did in Scotland.

Other additional member systems like Germany's and New Zealand's have a 50/50 divide, thereby making it impossible to sneak a majority on just the constituency seats. Scotland's system is also imbalanced with 57% constituency seats, but not as bad as Wales.

Gardenwalker said:

@Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

The issue is the powers rather than the structures.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Major YouGov poll:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1352648983664062464?s=21

People face away from the shower?

Of course. But the real question is do leavers and remainers predominate to different directions in the shower.

Gaussian said:

Alistair said:

Summer holidays fucked it.

https://twitter.com/ProfJDChalmers/status/1352761005726715904?s=19

I'd press Like if it wasn't so sad and infuriating.

(I think the other big mistake was not to open the schools first and assess the impact of that before opening anything else. And of course EOTHO.)

People were applauding Sturgeon for fully reopening the schools.

I couldn't believe the massive gamble she was taking. And it gets basically zero comment these days.

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

@Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

The issue is the powers rather than the structures.

Thing is the parties promise they want to do it, that they want to empower local government, and yet never really do unless its trivial, in an inconsistent and confusing way, or via pointless regions as dismissed in your post.

It's a stock manifesto promise which no one cares about when they win, that Whitehall wont like, and the public dont care enough to force it to happen.

MattW said:

FPT.

williamglenn said:

Major YouGov poll:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1352648983664062464?s=21

Weird question.

Depends whether I am washing the front or the back.

Rainfall shower? My coiffure is too splendiferous.

MattW said:

FPT.

williamglenn said:

Major YouGov poll:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1352648983664062464?s=21

Weird question.

Depends whether I am washing the front or the back.

Rainfall shower? My coiffure is too splendiferous.

Doesn't it depend who you are showering with?

OldKingCole said:

MattW said:

On topic (remarkably).

Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.

Had a hailstorm yesterday with pea sized hail that blanketed the ground. Never seen anything like it in my life.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Punter, that's an outrageous thing to post.

It's "...with whom you are showering".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTv5ckMe_2M

Guilty as charged.

I take David's point on automacity but dont give PC the opportunity. Wales is quiet on that score, keep it that way.

Mr. Walker, I don't think I've ever read the Telegraph.

And how dare you suggest my fascinating and unique collection of personal characteristics are some sort of second hand impression left from a media organ?!

*slaps GardenWalker across the face with a large haddock*

Gardenwalker said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.

I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.

The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.

They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, I don't think I've ever read the Telegraph.

*

I voted Labour last time, which was admittedly for Ben Bradshaw so hardly counts as an endorsement of the Left, and LibDem for most times before that.

Yet I read the Saturday Telegraph. It's very good.

Gardenwalker said:

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

@Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

The issue is the powers rather than the structures.

No. It’s about both.

Look at a map of English local authorities.
Then look at a map of English health authorities.
Now a map of English police forces.
Now a map of “functional economic geographies” (if you can find one).

It’s an utter mish-mash. A dog’s mess of Dickensian satraps and rotten boroughs.

Which suits the mandarin in Whitehall very well, but is anathema to democracy and accountability.

Yep. Incomprehensible mess. And government decided to add to it with its slapdash combined authorities rather than make it simpler or use what was there better.

On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,

Been out already. Colder than a penguin's cold bits.

Given how national issues do get brought a lot in local elections - and theres a reason youd expect a party in national government to suffer in the locals - I wonder how hard the opposition will go on Covid.

By that point an awful lot of people will be vaccinated and restrictions probably less so people may be feeling more positive generally, but we'll also be on something like 130000 deaths. Political arguments about it will be inevitable, but I'm uncertain how hard those campaigning will feel best to be on the subject.

kle4 said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Major YouGov poll:
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1352648983664062464?s=21

People face away from the shower?

Of course. But the real question is do leavers and remainers predominate to different directions in the shower.

Surely that depends where the door is?

Gardenwalker said:

Casino_Royale said:

Gardenwalker said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.

I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.

What powers do you think an “all-England view” should control?

I'm going to guess at protecting statues.

Gardenwalker said:

Gaussian said:

Foxy said:

It looks to me as if there may well be no possible Welsh government from those polling figures. I think Plaid may do better than expected, once they spread into the valleys it will be like the SNP. That disproportionate AMS system gives Labour leverage, but levers do work both ways, and could see a Labour collapse if it falls much further.

Yep, having two thirds constituency seats looks rather like a gerrymander in favour of Labour, although as you say it could suddenly start to turn against them like it did in Scotland.

Other additional member systems like Germany's and New Zealand's have a 50/50 divide, thereby making it impossible to sneak a majority on just the constituency seats. Scotland's system is also imbalanced with 57% constituency seats, but not as bad as Wales.

Actually not quite right.

NZ has more constituency seats (it’s about 60/40 I think), but the point is that the list seats are allocated in order to reach complete proportionality of each party in Parliament..

Therefore, the list (or party) vote is only one which really matters. Parliament is composed precisely according to the percentage each party achieves in that vote.

I understand it works the same way in Germany.

After 25 years, I believe the NZ system works very well. I still have reservations about the accountability of list MPs, but overall I feel that all opinions in multi-racial, multi-cultural NZ are able to gain representation and work out their various compromises with each other in Parliament.

The problem with the Welsh (and to a lesser extent the Scottish) systems is that they are a kind of pretend PR with an inbuilt lever to push even more seats toward the dominant party.

As Foxy points out upthread this works well for Labour - until it suddenly doesn’t.

Agreed, in fact I remember an interview with Carwyn Jones on TV years ago about the electoral system. He said they chose the 40/20 split so that Labour retained their majority all the time. I sadly can't give you a link to this, just a memory.

Dura_Ace said:

Gardenwalker said:

Casino_Royale said:

Gardenwalker said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.

I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.

What powers do you think an “all-England view” should control?

I'm going to guess at protecting statues.

Lol

Dura_Ace said:

I'm going to guess at protecting statues.

https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1352888881226641409

https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1352909583665291264

Now will either of England's openers make 20?

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1352909583665291264

Good morning Scott n' Paste

I don't find that cartoon either clever or particularly funny. It's very 'meh'.

Casino_Royale said:

Gardenwalker said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.

I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.

Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.

Last time there was a similar poll it tried to distinguish Leavers and Remainers by how frequently they changed their underwear.
All this tells us is what preoccupies YouGov. At least it's not getting worse. But it's not in a good place.

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

@Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.

You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?

Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.

It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.

The issue is the powers rather than the structures.

There are certain thing that do need to be done on a slightly larger area than a County, transport is one of them, business support another.

MaxPB said:

Mysticrose said:

The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.

They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.

At this stage it wouldn't matter if they did with only 30m doses available.

Not been following this, but cant countries choose to licence whatever vaccine it wishes? From a source in Spain they have been jabbing almost as long as UK have - not sure what Brussels has to do with the process...?

MaxPB said:

Mysticrose said:

The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.

They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.

At this stage it wouldn't matter if they did with only 30m doses available.

In fairness that would last them the best part of a month at the current rate of distribution.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: Ladbrokes' odds are unchanged, but Betfair's have Bottas down to 8 and Russell 9 for the title. Sadly lays aren't close, 14.5 and 20 respectively otherwise I'd be tempted to hedge bets made already.

Testing is about six weeks away with the first race a week or two after that. Every other driver was confirmed weeks if not months ago. I do expect Hamilton to re-sign but it's peculiar it's taking so long.

I believe the clue is in Hamiltons "training" tweets from earlier this week.

He is going back and the paperwork will be dealt with when he arrives in the same room as Toto- which I suspect will be just prior to testing given the current travel restrictions.

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

MattW said:

On topic (remarkably).

Is there much of a cleavage between Plaid in the Senedd, and Plaid in Westminster?

If so, I would see rather less prospect of a Plaid-Tory administration.

They seem to be somewhat so-aligned in the Commons.

What is perhaps remarkable is the apparent complete demise of the Liberal tradition in Wales. Lloyd-George might have known people's fathers but the sons and daughters seem to have forgotten him.

And Good Morning everyone. Cold day forecast, with the possibility of snow.

An inch of snow for me, and quite foggy. Will find out how the puppy likes it shortly.

Mine was a puppy during Beast from the East - the first hit of snow he was curious but wary, the second a few weeks' later, he loved it. Whenever we find snow in the Alps now, he goes beserk with happiness.

Not really had snow since the Beast down here in south Devon, but the dog LOVES a sharp frost on the grass. Runs round on it like a demented thing....

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Been out already. Colder than a penguin's cold bits.

I don't think it's that bad actually - there is no wind so no windchill making it feel 10 degrees colder

2 degrees above here in south Devon. No ice on the roads. Sunny. I was the only person in M&S at 8.10 this morning. Not all the stock had been put out yet, but that is a fair trade off to me.

Mysticrose said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1352909583665291264

Good morning Scott n' Paste

I don't find that cartoon either clever or particularly funny. It's very 'meh'.

On the contrary, I find it quite amusing. Don't forget, a lot of truth is hidden in humour.

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:

"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.

Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."

Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352876656915066881

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352897074635935745

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1352898265541451776

Not sure what point you are seeking to make Scott.

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

Casino_Royale said:

Gardenwalker said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.

I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.

It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.

I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.

I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.

If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.

Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.

I hope you are in a better place today? Hold on in there. We will come through this. We are very fortunate to live in a country with one of the best vaccine rollouts in the world and that is a gamechanger. Two or three more months and we'll be coming through, and out, of this.

x

Thanks, I think I am. Although I have to disagree on timescales. Even if we discount the possibility of a catastrophic setback (which remains significant: it's not just about homegrown variants of the rotten Plague, we're too dependent on road haulage to lock out imported disease effectively,) things aren't going to get significantly better in two or three months.

There might be some token easing (e.g. primary schools, gyms, hairdressers) once all the vulnerable and over 50s have been jabbed, but I don't think we're getting properly out of house arrest until the entire adult population's done. I'm certainly not making plans for Summer holidays because they ain't happening, at home as well as abroad. Beyond that, social distancing in some form is going to be with us for at least a year, and we may never be completely rid of it. This is going to be a very long, painful, dispiriting slog, make no mistake.