On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation. Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
Of course, they totally ignore the EU shambles on the vaccine and the UK's stellar rollout which for the next 2 years matters far more than a few rotting haddock.
I wouldn't call the rollout by the UK of vaccines as "stellar". It only has that appearance because the EU isn't as good and the trade deal negotiated by the liar in chief is so crap.
Indeed, there was no automaticity to what happened in Scotland – we should remember that in early 2011, Scottish Labour was well-set to evict the SNP from office. Only the far superior campaigning skills of Alex Salmond as against Iain Gray turned the tables.
That’s interesting. I wasn’t really paying attention to politics around that time as I was too busy with work, but I reckon the SNP were always likely to win in 2011 (though not necessarily a majority). I think the only reason Labour hung on to their Scottish seats at Westminster in 2010 was Gordon Brown.
Just to add, the bigger risk for the Tories is being seen to support a nationalist party. It could hurt them future elections in both Wales and Scotland.
No, Scottish Labour was way ahead in the polls at the start of 2011, leading by double-figures in the regional vote in most polls from June 2010 through to March 2011. As late as 28 March 2011 - less than six weeks from the election - SLab recorded a lead of +7.
Now, those polls might have been wrong - the SNP ended up winning by +18 when their best poll during the campaign was only +13 - but the SNP *did* record leads, including into double figures, during April. Before the election campaign, SLab looked likely to return.
On your second point, supporting the SNP on an informal C&S didn't do the Tories any harm, though Salmond was wise enough to govern in the centre anyway and throw the Tories the odd - low-level - meat. I'm doubtful Plaid would be so adept in managing the situation.
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation. Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
That’s easy, Plaid, because of the aforementioned looseness of structure.
That is not to say they would be particularly open to it, however.
Edit - incidentally the Tories would almost certainly be willing to work with Labour if it resulted in a Tory led government, probably more so than with Plaid, but Labour would certainly never offer it. It would be their answer to the LD fiasco on tuition fees.
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Just had an email from a nearby council saying over 75s will now have to wait until next Thursday before they are started on despite any letter they have had.
A pilot friend of mine is fond of telling me that these are merely numbers on a clock face. I find it quite helpful when I occasionally wake at 3 am. If I reach 5 am then it's a good night's sleep.
Oh and good morning
Sadly I’ve been up since 03:10 - still, I have plenty of books to read from Christmas and can go back to bed in a bit.
Ha. I was up at 3.10am too. I'd only just finished writing the article then.
@Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.
You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?
Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.
It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.
The issue is the powers rather than the structures.
There are certain thing that do need to be done on a slightly larger area than a County, transport is one of them, business support another.
Well the counties concerned can get together on those issues, it doesn’t require thousands more politicians and civil servants, taking decisions further away from the people they represent, to do that.
On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
Worked for Biden, they will say....
Yes and I was going to mention that but the UK isn't under Donald Trump, whatever you think of Johnson. This country is in a totally different place to the U.S..
Those jabbering that Brexit would be a disaster are looking increasingly whingeful. And our vaccine rollout is a stellar success, especially compared with the EU.
We made big mistakes last year but the Gov't have learned from them and polices now are just about right. Again, totally unlike Trump whose cavalier approach on the pandemic right to the end literally killed people.
Starmer has nothing to offer Britain right now.
If Johnson has any sense he will continue to tack soft left and then the next election will be his landslide. It will be like 1983: the pandemic conquest being similar to the Falklands.
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation. Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
That’s easy, Plaid, because of the aforementioned looseness of structure.
That is not to say they would be particularly open to it, however.
Edit - incidentally the Tories would almost certainly be willing to work with Labour if it resulted in a Tory led government, probably more so than with Plaid, but Labour would certainly never offer it. It would be their answer to the LD fiasco on tuition fees.
Would Plaid ever consent to a coalition with the Tories is the latter won the most seats?
On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
Starmer does need a few 'big issue' things which he can say he would do. Blair did it in 1997 to actually sell himself and New labour. National Minimum Wage, Bank of England Independence, Working Family Tax Credit, removal of section 28, and I'm sure plenty more.
If I was him I would do the following:
Legalistion of Cannabis Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules.
At least that would get an arguement going and get some fire in his belly.
@Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.
You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?
Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.
It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.
The issue is the powers rather than the structures.
There are certain thing that do need to be done on a slightly larger area than a County, transport is one of them, business support another.
Well the counties concerned can get together on those issues, it doesn’t require thousands more politicians and civil servants, taking decisions further away from the people they represent, to do that.
I agree with that.
To take an example - East Anglian matters could be dealt with by a supergroup composed of leads from Norfolk, Suffolk etc.
A bit like the EU Council
However, even such a parsimonious structure would need a secretariat / bureaucracy to make things happen.
Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.
I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.
It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.
I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.
If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.
I hope you are in a better place today? Hold on in there. We will come through this. We are very fortunate to live in a country with one of the best vaccine rollouts in the world and that is a gamechanger. Two or three more months and we'll be coming through, and out, of this.
x
Thanks, I think I am. Although I have to disagree on timescales. Even if we discount the possibility of a catastrophic setback (which remains significant: it's not just about homegrown variants of the rotten Plague, we're too dependent on road haulage to lock out imported disease effectively,) things aren't going to get significantly better in two or three months.
There might be some token easing (e.g. primary schools, gyms, hairdressers) once all the vulnerable and over 50s have been jabbed, but I don't think we're getting properly out of house arrest until the entire adult population's done. I'm certainly not making plans for Summer holidays because they ain't happening, at home as well as abroad. Beyond that, social distancing in some form is going to be with us for at least a year, and we may never be completely rid of it. This is going to be a very long, painful, dispiriting slog, make no mistake.
You're far too pessimistic and, I am afraid, completely wrong. You are looking at colours and seeing only black.
Vaccinated? I'm travelling. It's not just the c. 95% protection. It's that even if you get it you won't get it severely.
The whole country will be done and dusted by late summer. We can do what we like and go anywhere that lets us in, which will be increasingly the case with our IATA pass.
On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
Starmer does need a few 'big issue' things which he can say he would do. Blair did it in 1997 to actually sell himself and New labour. National Minimum Wage, Bank of England Independence, Working Family Tax Credit, removal of section 28, and I'm sure plenty more.
If I was him I would do the following:
Legalistion of Cannabis Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules.
At least that would get an arguement going and get some fire in his belly.
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Instead of posting every thing you can find that in your mind trashes the UK, why cannot you just be honest and openly accept the EU vaccination scheme is a disaster and will result in thousands of avoidable lost lives.
Then your other posts could be seen as more balanced as you are able to criticise the EU when they get things wrong, otherwise it is more than reasonable to conclude that you are simply an anti brexit obsessive with no balance and your postings are just tedious
This is rich coming from a pro tory pro brexit anti labour obsessive like yourself. There is nothing wrong with questioning issues affecting our country when they are becoming apparent to most people. There is no point in commenting on the EU as because you keep on saying, Brexit has happened and we can do nothing about it. We can though do something about our bunch of liars and hypocrits running our country.
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation. Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
That’s easy, Plaid, because of the aforementioned looseness of structure.
That is not to say they would be particularly open to it, however.
Edit - incidentally the Tories would almost certainly be willing to work with Labour if it resulted in a Tory led government, probably more so than with Plaid, but Labour would certainly never offer it. It would be their answer to the LD fiasco on tuition fees.
Would Plaid ever consent to a coalition with the Tories is the latter won the most seats?
And vice versa?
They might, but there would be formidable difficulties involved. Not least, the fact that they have totally opposed electoral coalitions. In Ceredigion, for example, Tory strength is based on those who feel the Welsh language has *too much* protection.
It very nearly happened in 2007 (and, oh, if only it had happened it would be so much better for everyone) but the leavening factor of six Liberal Democrats would have been crucial, as was the influence of the then quite right wing Dafydd Elis Thomas for Plaid and left wing Glyn Davies for the Tories, the latter of whom is retired and the former has actually joined Labour.
It is just possible that they might agree to back a compromise all-party ministry led by a respected figure - e.g. Elin Jones - but it would take a long time to negotiate.
Frankly, the way polls are at the moment the best value might be in fresh elections this autumn due to no executive being agreed.
On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
Starmer does need a few 'big issue' things which he can say he would do. Blair did it in 1997 to actually sell himself and New labour. National Minimum Wage, Bank of England Independence, Working Family Tax Credit, removal of section 28, and I'm sure plenty more.
If I was him I would do the following:
Legalistion of Cannabis Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules.
At least that would get an arguement going and get some fire in his belly.
Sounds good. I'd really like to see the debate on drug laws in this country lifted out of the current gutter of tabloid ignorance and hypocrisy.
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation. Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
That’s easy, Plaid, because of the aforementioned looseness of structure.
That is not to say they would be particularly open to it, however.
Edit - incidentally the Tories would almost certainly be willing to work with Labour if it resulted in a Tory led government, probably more so than with Plaid, but Labour would certainly never offer it. It would be their answer to the LD fiasco on tuition fees.
Would Plaid ever consent to a coalition with the Tories is the latter won the most seats?
And vice versa?
That is a fair question but if the choice is Drakeford then I expect some sort of agreement may be possible
Dodds made a big speech last week, which I, like many no doubt, completely missed.
Dunt has done a summary.
"Dodds understands that low interest rates mean it is currently very easy for the government to borrow money. “For as long as that is the case, government must make use of benign circumstances to avoid choking off recovery via premature and politically-motivated fiscal tightening,” she said. This is the sensible and humane Keynesian course. “But it would be an irresponsible economic policymaker who planned on the assumption that low interest rates will continue indefinitely.” "
"Dodds wants tax and spend projections to be extended from the current five years to ten, with estimates for the ten years after that, giving an overall 20-year budgeting horizon. This would hopefully open up a more honest debate about long-term issues like social care and gaps in pension provision."
Knowing very little about Russia I would not be surprised if maybe Putin just never goes out there himself and sends his most uselessly corrupt people to administer it.
Though only one region dared vote against his constitutional referendum last year, and that one was tiny.
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Just had an email from a nearby council saying over 75s will now have to wait until next Thursday before they are started on despite any letter they have had.
I bet there are millions of over 75s in the EU who would gladly wait to next Thursday for their injection
Most farmers and fisherfolk voted for Brexit, so tough titties.
At the one public meeting I went to on Brexit, a pro-leave farmer was on the panel. He raged and ranted about the 30 page form he had to fill in to get grants from the EU. That seemed to be his only reason to leave.
Seemed to be under the impression that UK government would just hand farmers money without any forms.
Deluded doesn't come close.
Obviously never applied for a grant from the National Lottery.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Of course, they totally ignore the EU shambles on the vaccine and the UK's stellar rollout which for the next 2 years matters far more than a few rotting haddock.
I wouldn't call the rollout by the UK of vaccines as "stellar". It only has that appearance because the EU isn't as good and the trade deal negotiated by the liar in chief is so crap.
The EU vaccine situation is an utter and absolute shambles
And yes, the UK's vaccine rollout is stellar. We pre-ordered in bulk from multiple developers: the greatest policy decision by any Government since the second world war. No exaggeration.
We have now jabbed nearly 10% of the adult population placing us roughly 3rd in the world. Our backing of Astra Zeneca and rollout of that has been a triumph.
It is an absolutely stellar achievement. Quite simply the greatest of my lifetime by any Government I have witnessed.
The supply transparency issue is quite simple, as the government have said supply is lumpy i.e. they don't know anything for certain. This week it was supposes to be 3.8 million doses of AZN delivered, they apparently got 2m.
As long as delivered vaccines are getting out into arms quickly, which at 400k yesterday, suggests they are, that is all the government can do.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
It needs the protest vote in Wales to unite behind either the Tories or Plaid.
At the moment the Tories have the wider reach, but Plaid possibly the necessary flexibility to reach out to a wider coalition. You could see Plaid picking up seats across Wales in the right circumstances, whereas despite recent changes it’s still very difficult to see how the Tories make significant inroads in the Valleys.
The situation suits Labour beautifully of course. It doesn’t suit Wales at all, but then, they don’t care about that.
But as you say, at some point it will end. Already Labour’s lack of talent is becoming embarrassing. A bit like the Communist Party in the dog days of Glasnost when they were a bunch of entitled fools made to look weak and vacillating by Sakharov’s nimble independents.
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation. Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
That’s easy, Plaid, because of the aforementioned looseness of structure.
That is not to say they would be particularly open to it, however.
Edit - incidentally the Tories would almost certainly be willing to work with Labour if it resulted in a Tory led government, probably more so than with Plaid, but Labour would certainly never offer it. It would be their answer to the LD fiasco on tuition fees.
Would Plaid ever consent to a coalition with the Tories is the latter won the most seats?
And vice versa?
That is a fair question but if the choice is Drakeford then I expect some sort of agreement may be possible
But I have no idea really, and I live in Wales
The reason for my question is as follows. Is Wales essentially a left (Labour) vs right (Tory) type model, with Plaid effectively forming a pressure group able to compete with or partner with both?
OR is Plaid essentially a left wing pressure group for people who want more Wales, ie essentially a competitor to Labour on the left.
OR is Wales essentially two DIFFERENT systems: Labour vs Conservative in the more Anglo areas, and Labour vs Plaid in the Welsh sprechenraum?
1) The Liberal Democrats are very unlikely to win any seats. With Kirsty Williams retiring Brecon and Radnor will be very hard to defend, and they have so little strength left elsewhere they won’t get any on the lists. I am expecting Plaid, the Tories and Labour to lock out all 60.
2) Because of the corrupt electoral system, Labour should win most seats, but given at recent elections the Tories have been running them unexpectedly close in every seat outside the core Valleys and Cardiff, that isn’t a certainty. Equally, the point about campaigning may come into play here. Abject as Price is, he is likely to prove more effective than Drakeford and Davies (who is currently also having to explain why he was in effect visiting the pub during lockdown). That may help Plaid, but I doubt if it will help them enough to come second.
3) Whoever wins, unless the Tories win at least 29 seats the new government will be some hybrid involving Labour and Plaid, because as David notes, no other permutation makes sense. This is bad news for Wales as Labour are a totally shite government and unfit to clean the public toilets in Cathays Park.
Finally some people have been asking about Plaid - it’s much easier if you think of it as a political movement with some of the structures of a party, like the Greens, rather than as a wannabe party with a highly centralised command structure and unified agenda like the ScotsNats. So it doesn’t ‘want’ anything in specific as a whole - rather, it feels Wales and the Welsh language have a raw deal and need a better one.
Disappointing as Labour have been in Wales over the last 20 years, and it is certainly time for a change, Welsh Tories are a sub-breed, wholly inferior to the real thing. Whereas the Conservative Party often provide us with some of the greatest political minds (obviously outside the current Westminster Government) Welsh Conservatives do not. The current crop of MPs are unimpressive enough, my own MP Alun Cairns exemplifies that notion, but even he is head and shoulders above Nick Ramsey, Russell George, Paul, and Andrew RT Davies, and their chums. Paul and RT are at that point of becoming the Laurel and Hardy of British political life.
I like Price and Ap Iorwedd, although people like Helen-Mary are a bit twp. I am hoping whatever happens, the Corbynista elements of Welsh Labour will wither away. I can see Ken "The Assassin" Skates becoming more prominent, which let's face it, is a step up from 'not-so magic grandpa, Mark'.
And where are these public conveniences in Cathays Park? I just use the Redwood Building facilities.
Of course, they totally ignore the EU shambles on the vaccine and the UK's stellar rollout which for the next 2 years matters far more than a few rotting haddock.
I wouldn't call the rollout by the UK of vaccines as "stellar". It only has that appearance because the EU isn't as good and the trade deal negotiated by the liar in chief is so crap.
The EU vaccine situation is an utter and absolute shambles
And yes, the UK's vaccine rollout is stellar. We pre-ordered in bulk from multiple developers: the greatest policy decision by any Government since the second world war. No exaggeration.
We have now jabbed nearly 10% of the adult population placing us roughly 3rd in the world. Our backing of Astra Zeneca and rollout of that has been a triumph.
It is an absolutely stellar achievement. Quite simply the greatest of my lifetime by any Government I have witnessed.
yours, a Labour voter last time.
It was a reasonably good idea. Even a very good idea. But let's not elevate it to "Two world wars, one world cup and a vaccine rollout" status, shall we? Not when we are unchallenged numero uno worldbeaters when it comes to deaths per head of population.
Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.
I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.
It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.
I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.
If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.
I hope you are in a better place today? Hold on in there. We will come through this. We are very fortunate to live in a country with one of the best vaccine rollouts in the world and that is a gamechanger. Two or three more months and we'll be coming through, and out, of this.
x
Thanks, I think I am. Although I have to disagree on timescales. Even if we discount the possibility of a catastrophic setback (which remains significant: it's not just about homegrown variants of the rotten Plague, we're too dependent on road haulage to lock out imported disease effectively,) things aren't going to get significantly better in two or three months.
There might be some token easing (e.g. primary schools, gyms, hairdressers) once all the vulnerable and over 50s have been jabbed, but I don't think we're getting properly out of house arrest until the entire adult population's done. I'm certainly not making plans for Summer holidays because they ain't happening, at home as well as abroad. Beyond that, social distancing in some form is going to be with us for at least a year, and we may never be completely rid of it. This is going to be a very long, painful, dispiriting slog, make no mistake.
You're far too pessimistic and, I am afraid, completely wrong. You are looking at colours and seeing only black.
Vaccinated? I'm travelling. It's not just the c. 95% protection. It's that even if you get it you won't get it severely.
The whole country will be done and dusted by late summer. We can do what we like and go anywhere that lets us in, which will be increasingly the case with our IATA pass.
Game on.
Au contraire, the more effective the vaccination programme becomes, the greater the pressure will be to keep the drawbridge firmly raised. The lower the prevalence of the disease, and the more unrestricted life here becomes, the higher the risk of ruining everything by importing exotic strains of Covid from abroad: in terms of international travel at least, we aren't going to be free of the pandemic until everybody is.
In the next few months we're going nowhere regardless, but once we get to the critical point at which hospitality reopens, holidays at home can be taken and social distancing is at least substantially relaxed, the notion of Fortress Britain will start to become increasingly appealing to a growing proportion of the electorate.
As with New Zealand, so with the UK: locking the world out is a price worth paying for freedom at home.
Of course, they totally ignore the EU shambles on the vaccine and the UK's stellar rollout which for the next 2 years matters far more than a few rotting haddock.
I wouldn't call the rollout by the UK of vaccines as "stellar". It only has that appearance because the EU isn't as good and the trade deal negotiated by the liar in chief is so crap.
The EU vaccine situation is an utter and absolute shambles
And yes, the UK's vaccine rollout is stellar. We pre-ordered in bulk from multiple developers: the greatest policy decision by any Government since the second world war. No exaggeration.
We have now jabbed nearly 10% of the adult population placing us roughly 3rd in the world. Our backing of Astra Zeneca and rollout of that has been a triumph.
It is an absolutely stellar achievement. Quite simply the greatest of my lifetime by any Government I have witnessed.
yours, a Labour voter last time.
Have you told us that you’re a Labour voter before? Quite the revelation.
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Instead of posting every thing you can find that in your mind trashes the UK, why cannot you just be honest and openly accept the EU vaccination scheme is a disaster and will result in thousands of avoidable lost lives.
Then your other posts could be seen as more balanced as you are able to criticise the EU when they get things wrong, otherwise it is more than reasonable to conclude that you are simply an anti brexit obsessive with no balance and your postings are just tedious
This is rich coming from a pro tory pro brexit anti labour obsessive like yourself. There is nothing wrong with questioning issues affecting our country when they are becoming apparent to most people. There is no point in commenting on the EU as because you keep on saying, Brexit has happened and we can do nothing about it. We can though do something about our bunch of liars and hypocrits running our country.
Posting anti UK vaccination articles while not criticising the EU who are failing in a big way is all part of the attitude the EU can do no wrong
And of course the EU's failure is important as many on here and elsewhere condemned Boris for not joining it, when it was absolutely the correct decision as was his decision on the vaccine investments here in the UK
I am content if you just agree the EU has failed in its responsibility on the vaccine programme
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Very good post, but I can't help objecting to "Labour deserve to lose power in Wales." If that's just your personal judgement, fine, I can't argue. But they are still the most popular party in Wales. Whatever their supposed failings, nobody has (yet) overtaken them.
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation. Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
That’s easy, Plaid, because of the aforementioned looseness of structure.
That is not to say they would be particularly open to it, however.
Edit - incidentally the Tories would almost certainly be willing to work with Labour if it resulted in a Tory led government, probably more so than with Plaid, but Labour would certainly never offer it. It would be their answer to the LD fiasco on tuition fees.
Would Plaid ever consent to a coalition with the Tories is the latter won the most seats?
And vice versa?
That is a fair question but if the choice is Drakeford then I expect some sort of agreement may be possible
But I have no idea really, and I live in Wales
The reason for my question is as follows. Is Wales essentially a left (Labour) vs right (Tory) type model, with Plaid effectively forming a pressure group able to compete with or partner with both?
OR is Plaid essentially a left wing pressure group for people who want more Wales, ie essentially a competitor to Labour on the left.
OR is Wales essentially two DIFFERENT systems: Labour vs Conservative in the more Anglo areas, and Labour vs Plaid in the Welsh sprechenraum?
The last is closest, but there are more than two areas. So you might add the Valleys as a third group on their own, plus Cardiff is different again.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
I had wondered about that, as I was sure at least the Lib Dem had been necessary last time.
Predictions of the end (of dominance) for Labour in Wales seem to have been around forever and forever disappointed, but as an outsider it really does feel like the signs are there. When you start relying on the system in order to maintain control it's easy to get schlerotic and lazy.
It's a cliche, and yes there will be exceptions, but parties really can be in power too long and 'it's time for a change' becomes a powerful message. Local councils might just be able to get away with such long dominance (though even there it can become terrible, as a party forms its own factional opposition), but not a national assembly (actually I think it is now the parliament, so I guess they won't be AMs anymore? MWPs I guess.
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Just had an email from a nearby council saying over 75s will now have to wait until next Thursday before they are started on despite any letter they have had.
This looks very important.
Apologies if already pointed - very encouraging news!
1) The Liberal Democrats are very unlikely to win any seats. With Kirsty Williams retiring Brecon and Radnor will be very hard to defend, and they have so little strength left elsewhere they won’t get any on the lists. I am expecting Plaid, the Tories and Labour to lock out all 60.
2) Because of the corrupt electoral system, Labour should win most seats, but given at recent elections the Tories have been running them unexpectedly close in every seat outside the core Valleys and Cardiff, that isn’t a certainty. Equally, the point about campaigning may come into play here. Abject as Price is, he is likely to prove more effective than Drakeford and Davies (who is currently also having to explain why he was in effect visiting the pub during lockdown). That may help Plaid, but I doubt if it will help them enough to come second.
3) Whoever wins, unless the Tories win at least 29 seats the new government will be some hybrid involving Labour and Plaid, because as David notes, no other permutation makes sense. This is bad news for Wales as Labour are a totally shite government and unfit to clean the public toilets in Cathays Park.
Finally some people have been asking about Plaid - it’s much easier if you think of it as a political movement with some of the structures of a party, like the Greens, rather than as a wannabe party with a highly centralised command structure and unified agenda like the ScotsNats. So it doesn’t ‘want’ anything in specific as a whole - rather, it feels Wales and the Welsh language have a raw deal and need a better one.
Welsh Tories are a sub-breed, wholly inferior to the real thing.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Very good post, but I can't help objecting to "Labour deserve to lose power in Wales." If that's just your personal judgement, fine, I can't argue. But they are still the most popular party in Wales. Whatever their supposed failings, nobody has (yet) overtaken them.
No, he’s right. They do deserve to lose power in Wales. The reason they are still popular is because they have built up a substantial client vote over the last century that will vote for them regardless.
What seems to me to be changing is that recently it looks like they’ve given up even pretending to care about anyone else.
Dodds made a big speech last week, which I, like many no doubt, completely missed.
Dunt has done a summary.
"Dodds understands that low interest rates mean it is currently very easy for the government to borrow money. “For as long as that is the case, government must make use of benign circumstances to avoid choking off recovery via premature and politically-motivated fiscal tightening,” she said. This is the sensible and humane Keynesian course. “But it would be an irresponsible economic policymaker who planned on the assumption that low interest rates will continue indefinitely.” "
"Dodds wants tax and spend projections to be extended from the current five years to ten, with estimates for the ten years after that, giving an overall 20-year budgeting horizon. This would hopefully open up a more honest debate about long-term issues like social care and gaps in pension provision."
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Just had an email from a nearby council saying over 75s will now have to wait until next Thursday before they are started on despite any letter they have had.
If you have a letter and want to try and get it earlier and willing to drive, you could try to get a slot at a mass vaccination centre.
1) The Liberal Democrats are very unlikely to win any seats. With Kirsty Williams retiring Brecon and Radnor will be very hard to defend, and they have so little strength left elsewhere they won’t get any on the lists. I am expecting Plaid, the Tories and Labour to lock out all 60.
2) Because of the corrupt electoral system, Labour should win most seats, but given at recent elections the Tories have been running them unexpectedly close in every seat outside the core Valleys and Cardiff, that isn’t a certainty. Equally, the point about campaigning may come into play here. Abject as Price is, he is likely to prove more effective than Drakeford and Davies (who is currently also having to explain why he was in effect visiting the pub during lockdown). That may help Plaid, but I doubt if it will help them enough to come second.
3) Whoever wins, unless the Tories win at least 29 seats the new government will be some hybrid involving Labour and Plaid, because as David notes, no other permutation makes sense. This is bad news for Wales as Labour are a totally shite government and unfit to clean the public toilets in Cathays Park.
Finally some people have been asking about Plaid - it’s much easier if you think of it as a political movement with some of the structures of a party, like the Greens, rather than as a wannabe party with a highly centralised command structure and unified agenda like the ScotsNats. So it doesn’t ‘want’ anything in specific as a whole - rather, it feels Wales and the Welsh language have a raw deal and need a better one.
Welsh Tories are a sub-breed, wholly inferior to the real thing.
Scary!!
Truthful though. I’m not saying Gavin Williamson would stand out as above average but Mogg and Patel would.
Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.
I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.
It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.
I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.
If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.
I hope you are in a better place today? Hold on in there. We will come through this. We are very fortunate to live in a country with one of the best vaccine rollouts in the world and that is a gamechanger. Two or three more months and we'll be coming through, and out, of this.
x
Thanks, I think I am. Although I have to disagree on timescales. Even if we discount the possibility of a catastrophic setback (which remains significant: it's not just about homegrown variants of the rotten Plague, we're too dependent on road haulage to lock out imported disease effectively,) things aren't going to get significantly better in two or three months.
There might be some token easing (e.g. primary schools, gyms, hairdressers) once all the vulnerable and over 50s have been jabbed, but I don't think we're getting properly out of house arrest until the entire adult population's done. I'm certainly not making plans for Summer holidays because they ain't happening, at home as well as abroad. Beyond that, social distancing in some form is going to be with us for at least a year, and we may never be completely rid of it. This is going to be a very long, painful, dispiriting slog, make no mistake.
You're far too pessimistic and, I am afraid, completely wrong. You are looking at colours and seeing only black.
Vaccinated? I'm travelling. It's not just the c. 95% protection. It's that even if you get it you won't get it severely.
The whole country will be done and dusted by late summer. We can do what we like and go anywhere that lets us in, which will be increasingly the case with our IATA pass.
Game on.
In the next few months we're going nowhere regardless,
This just isn't true. I follow the daily updates from Wanderlust and we can already still go places. I have several in my sights. That will only continue.
As IATA have made clear, in conjunction with Governments, have the vaccine and a PCR test on their App? Then you can travel.
I don't think you're being savvy enough about why the Gov't are making the noises they are. They know that they can't for a second give any impression that we're winning the battle. If there's even a chink then everyone will be outside. They know that this is the final lockdown. People will simply not accept another one. Nor will they have to.
I'm tempted to add that despite one minor aberration when I criticised Alastair M for being too pessimistic I've been correct about this pandemic all the way along. Oh look, I just did.
In 3 months we'll back into tiers, not tears, and in 6 months we'll be in a new normal with a vaccinated population and no more covid than annual flu.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Very good post, but I can't help objecting to "Labour deserve to lose power in Wales." If that's just your personal judgement, fine, I can't argue. But they are still the most popular party in Wales. Whatever their supposed failings, nobody has (yet) overtaken them.
Sure, but people have never shied away from saying how hated the Tories are even when they are the most popular political party in the UK, nor should they - it's an obviously a personal judgement as to when a party has governed too long, even if one might generally back them.
My favourite is when people talk about the Tories/SNP etc as not having won a majority of opinion in a vote, when self evidently no one else did either and they would at least be the most popular of the options.
On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
Starmer does need a few 'big issue' things which he can say he would do. Blair did it in 1997 to actually sell himself and New labour. National Minimum Wage, Bank of England Independence, Working Family Tax Credit, removal of section 28, and I'm sure plenty more.
If I was him I would do the following:
Legalistion of Cannabis Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules.
At least that would get an arguement going and get some fire in his belly.
Legalistion of Cannabis - one of those things that for some weird reason has to be done by the Tories, Labour not allowed to do this or they are weak on crime, it will happen in the next 20 years at some point though Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) - will only ever be done piecemeal, too many jobs for ex MPs and too much patronage for whoever is PM Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) - too late Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) - too late (for now) Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules. - most of this likely to be done by Sunak
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Instead of posting every thing you can find that in your mind trashes the UK, why cannot you just be honest and openly accept the EU vaccination scheme is a disaster and will result in thousands of avoidable lost lives.
Then your other posts could be seen as more balanced as you are able to criticise the EU when they get things wrong, otherwise it is more than reasonable to conclude that you are simply an anti brexit obsessive with no balance and your postings are just tedious
This is rich coming from a pro tory pro brexit anti labour obsessive like yourself. There is nothing wrong with questioning issues affecting our country when they are becoming apparent to most people. There is no point in commenting on the EU as because you keep on saying, Brexit has happened and we can do nothing about it. We can though do something about our bunch of liars and hypocrits running our country.
Posting anti UK vaccination articles while not criticising the EU who are failing in a big way is all part of the attitude the EU can do no wrong
And of course the EU's failure is important as many on here and elsewhere condemned Boris for not joining it, when it was absolutely the correct decision as was his decision on the vaccine investments here in the UK
I am content if you just agree the EU has failed in its responsibility on the vaccine programme
I agree that the EU has totally cocked up their response to the vaccinations, but don't assume the UK response hasn't had it's issues. It is easy for 1 country to cut and run. Sadly we live in a selfish world.
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Just had an email from a nearby council saying over 75s will now have to wait until next Thursday before they are started on despite any letter they have had.
I bet there are millions of over 75s in the EU who would gladly wait to next Thursday for their injection
Swings and roundabouts, though. Most nations (even Wales!) have substantially lower infection rates at the moment than England does. So there's less urgency, frankly.
The Johnson government did well at buying vaccines. Though we have to set that against the effort wasted on the other bits of science that were going to save us, including the app and rapid testing.
But in terms of saving lives, the inaction immediately after Christmas has cost a heck of a lot of lives, will cost more, and has forced us into rapid and riskier vaccination. I hope it works, but it is a gamble.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
It needs the protest vote in Wales to unite behind either the Tories or Plaid.
At the moment the Tories have the wider reach, but Plaid possibly the necessary flexibility to reach out to a wider coalition. You could see Plaid picking up seats across Wales in the right circumstances, whereas despite recent changes it’s still very difficult to see how the Tories make significant inroads in the Valleys.
The situation suits Labour beautifully of course. It doesn’t suit Wales at all, but then, they don’t care about that.
But as you say, at some point it will end. Already Labour’s lack of talent is becoming embarrassing. A bit like the Communist Party in the dog days of Glasnost when they were a bunch of entitled fools made to look weak and vacillating by Sakharov’s nimble independents.
I agree with both yourself and the Bard that Labour needs to lose power. I voted Plaid at the last Assembly Elections, and was furious when Leanne tried her 'rainbow coalition' with UKIP and the Conservatives. For someone who doesn't want Drakeford as FM, I can categorically say I want Paul Davies as FM even less. If Plaid do any deals with the Tories, even in order to get Price into pole position as FM, they will go the way of the LDs in the rest of the UK.
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation. Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
That’s easy, Plaid, because of the aforementioned looseness of structure.
That is not to say they would be particularly open to it, however.
Edit - incidentally the Tories would almost certainly be willing to work with Labour if it resulted in a Tory led government, probably more so than with Plaid, but Labour would certainly never offer it. It would be their answer to the LD fiasco on tuition fees.
Would Plaid ever consent to a coalition with the Tories is the latter won the most seats?
And vice versa?
That is a fair question but if the choice is Drakeford then I expect some sort of agreement may be possible
But I have no idea really, and I live in Wales
The notion of Plaid supporting the Evil Tories over anything, ever, sounds quite far fetched. They also appear incapable of mounting an effective takeover like the SNP did.
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Instead of posting every thing you can find that in your mind trashes the UK, why cannot you just be honest and openly accept the EU vaccination scheme is a disaster and will result in thousands of avoidable lost lives.
Then your other posts could be seen as more balanced as you are able to criticise the EU when they get things wrong, otherwise it is more than reasonable to conclude that you are simply an anti brexit obsessive with no balance and your postings are just tedious
This is rich coming from a pro tory pro brexit anti labour obsessive like yourself. There is nothing wrong with questioning issues affecting our country when they are becoming apparent to most people. There is no point in commenting on the EU as because you keep on saying, Brexit has happened and we can do nothing about it. We can though do something about our bunch of liars and hypocrits running our country.
Posting anti UK vaccination articles while not criticising the EU who are failing in a big way is all part of the attitude the EU can do no wrong
And of course the EU's failure is important as many on here and elsewhere condemned Boris for not joining it, when it was absolutely the correct decision as was his decision on the vaccine investments here in the UK
I am content if you just agree the EU has failed in its responsibility on the vaccine programme
I agree that the EU has totally cocked up their response to the vaccinations, but don't assume the UK response hasn't had it's issues. It is easy for 1 country to cut and run. Sadly we live in a selfish world.
Wait, we were told that it would be much easier in the EU vaccine scheme. Unforgivable that we didn't join, the experts said.
Of course, they totally ignore the EU shambles on the vaccine and the UK's stellar rollout which for the next 2 years matters far more than a few rotting haddock.
I wouldn't call the rollout by the UK of vaccines as "stellar". It only has that appearance because the EU isn't as good and the trade deal negotiated by the liar in chief is so crap.
The EU vaccine situation is an utter and absolute shambles
And yes, the UK's vaccine rollout is stellar. We pre-ordered in bulk from multiple developers: the greatest policy decision by any Government since the second world war. No exaggeration.
We have now jabbed nearly 10% of the adult population placing us roughly 3rd in the world. Our backing of Astra Zeneca and rollout of that has been a triumph.
It is an absolutely stellar achievement. Quite simply the greatest of my lifetime by any Government I have witnessed.
yours, a Labour voter last time.
It was a reasonably good idea. Even a very good idea. But let's not elevate it to "Two world wars, one world cup and a vaccine rollout" status, shall we? Not when we are unchallenged numero uno worldbeaters when it comes to deaths per head of population.
Obviously not comparable to a game of football and it's far better than our performance in the first world war.
We did okay in the second world war. Plenty of errors, much bravery, some luck and a great leader. But more than anything, the Americans.
So I will elevate it and so will the Conservatives backed by the press. When we've beaten this fucker, which we will in a matter of months, you are going to have to retreat to a hermitage because there will be praise for this Government's vaccine triumph like nothing else you've ever witnessed. Deservedly so.
I don't find that cartoon either clever or particularly funny. It's very 'meh'.
On the contrary, I find it quite amusing. Don't forget, a lot of truth is hidden in humour.
Is the cartoonist "hiding some truth" in the "humour" of Boris having a 2003 TV show on VHS?
Boris didnt have a tv show in 2003, unless you count his appearances on HIGNFY.
You find the cartoon funny, so I can't tell if you're trying to be funny now..
In the bin under the table in the cartoon there is a VHS of the TV show The Apprentice, which was first made in 2003.
Classic cartoon tropes may not work in the modern era, but VHS tapes are easier to show than a DVD shelf. Someone talked about a Matt cartoon with a kid talking on a landline yesterday. Preposterous.
There's been better cartoons making the same point, frankly. I think everyone accepts that national leaders have to seek to work well with whoever is president, and therefore flipping on a dime to work with the next guy is accepted and not even to be criticised, so it just becomes an argument if Boris and co worked too hard to get along with Trump, too closely, which is a harder argument to make than 'hurr hurr, he worked with Trump now he has to work with Biden'.
Mr. Walker, au contraire. It's the politicians and media who seem incapable of fathoming the concept of an English Parliament. They're the ones who have a fixation in cutting England to bits.
I don’t think anyone has a fixation about cutting England to bits, apart from you.
It appears to be one of your manias, presumably contracted from reading Telegraph leader in about 2003, and now perhaps a terminal case.
I think the concern comes from devolving powers to English regions similar to those in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments (which are nations) just so they are all of an equitable population size in order to facilitate a federal British parliament.
I can see why doing something that contrived would piss a lot of English people off.
If they did it along the lines of ancient Anglo-Saxon kingdoms and/or historic counties, and still had a mechanism for taking an all-England view at federal level, it might just work I suppose.
Yet again, there are no innervating constitutional controversies that cannot be resolved by the simple expedient of dismantling the United Kingdom. Any argument for oh-so-conveniently Scotland-sized regional assemblies walks out of the door with Scotland itself.
I hope you are in a better place today? Hold on in there. We will come through this. We are very fortunate to live in a country with one of the best vaccine rollouts in the world and that is a gamechanger. Two or three more months and we'll be coming through, and out, of this.
x
Thanks, I think I am. Although I have to disagree on timescales. Even if we discount the possibility of a catastrophic setback (which remains significant: it's not just about homegrown variants of the rotten Plague, we're too dependent on road haulage to lock out imported disease effectively,) things aren't going to get significantly better in two or three months.
There might be some token easing (e.g. primary schools, gyms, hairdressers) once all the vulnerable and over 50s have been jabbed, but I don't think we're getting properly out of house arrest until the entire adult population's done. I'm certainly not making plans for Summer holidays because they ain't happening, at home as well as abroad. Beyond that, social distancing in some form is going to be with us for at least a year, and we may never be completely rid of it. This is going to be a very long, painful, dispiriting slog, make no mistake.
You're far too pessimistic and, I am afraid, completely wrong. You are looking at colours and seeing only black.
Vaccinated? I'm travelling. It's not just the c. 95% protection. It's that even if you get it you won't get it severely.
The whole country will be done and dusted by late summer. We can do what we like and go anywhere that lets us in, which will be increasingly the case with our IATA pass.
Game on.
In the next few months we're going nowhere regardless,
This just isn't true. I follow the daily updates from Wanderlust and we can already still go places. I have several in my sights. That will only continue.
As IATA have made clear, in conjunction with Governments, have the vaccine and a PCR test on their App? Then you can travel.
I don't think you're being savvy enough about why the Gov't are making the noises they are. They know that they can't for a second give any impression that we're winning the battle. If there's even a chink then everyone will be outside. They know that this is the final lockdown. People will simply not accept another one. Nor will they have to.
I'm tempted to add that despite one minor aberration when I criticised Alastair M for being too pessimistic I've been correct about this pandemic all the way along. Oh look, I just did.
In 3 months we'll back into tiers, not tears, and in 6 months we'll be in a new normal with a vaccinated population and no more covid than annual flu.
It's all over bar the jabs.
The numbers coming out of Israel look very encouraging. Suggests they could have immunity by end of March. I would hope for some serious analysis in the Sunday papers.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Very good post, but I can't help objecting to "Labour deserve to lose power in Wales." If that's just your personal judgement, fine, I can't argue. But they are still the most popular party in Wales. Whatever their supposed failings, nobody has (yet) overtaken them.
They deserve to lose power based on their record in government in Wales.
On most (all ?) metrics, Wales has gone backwards since 1999. Wales has the worst educational system, and the worst health outcomes of all the 4 countries in the UK. And they have gone backwards relative to Scotland, England & NI since 1999.
As always happens when one party remains in power for 20 years, there is a lot of corruption. For example, Labour in Wales refuse to have a register of lobbyists in the Senedd (unlike the case in Stormont, Holyrood & Westminster).
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
A great post, highlighting our dilemma in Wales. I am surprised both yourself and Ydoethur see the Welsh Tories as our knights in shining armour, they look lacklustre to me.
@Morris_Dancer you are obsessed with “carving England to pieces”.
You do know that Britain (England) is one of the most centralised countries on Earth?
Indeed. England would benefit massively from more powers (and fund raising) being devolved to the counties.
It doesn’t need another tier of ‘regions’ in the middle, with another layer of politicians, officials and other hangers-on funded by taxpayers, and with most of their powers coming up rather than down.
The issue is the powers rather than the structures.
No. It’s about both.
Look at a map of English local authorities. Then look at a map of English health authorities. Now a map of English police forces. Now a map of “functional economic geographies” (if you can find one).
It’s an utter mish-mash. A dog’s mess of Dickensian satraps and rotten boroughs.
Which suits the mandarin in Whitehall very well, but is anathema to democracy and accountability.
Oh, there’s definitely a whole load of rationalisation to be done across a whole number of areas, but I would use the existing country structures as the base, rather then moving power further away from the people into expensively-administered ‘regions’.
I want to see counties and districts competing with each other to attract business, and responsible for much more of the tax revenues generated within their area.
Building 10,000 new houses and a large business park should mean that everyone’s council tax falls. I don’t see any politician anywhere arguing for this.
I mean, the situation is coming when the UK will have vaccinated 80% of the adult population and the EU will be languishing around 25%. We will be free to travel the world, they won't.
Unless covid mutates to body-swerve the vaccines, which it might, it's beaten in the UK. It's just a question of time. And jabs.
An incredible success story by science. And this Conservative Government.
Indeed, there was no automaticity to what happened in Scotland – we should remember that in early 2011, Scottish Labour was well-set to evict the SNP from office. Only the far superior campaigning skills of Alex Salmond as against Iain Gray turned the tables.
That’s interesting. I wasn’t really paying attention to politics around that time as I was too busy with work, but I reckon the SNP were always likely to win in 2011 (though not necessarily a majority). I think the only reason Labour hung on to their Scottish seats at Westminster in 2010 was Gordon Brown.
Just to add, the bigger risk for the Tories is being seen to support a nationalist party. It could hurt them future elections in both Wales and Scotland.
No, Scottish Labour was way ahead in the polls at the start of 2011, leading by double-figures in the regional vote in most polls from June 2010 through to March 2011. As late as 28 March 2011 - less than six weeks from the election - SLab recorded a lead of +7.
Now, those polls might have been wrong - the SNP ended up winning by +18 when their best poll during the campaign was only +13 - but the SNP *did* record leads, including into double figures, during April. Before the election campaign, SLab looked likely to return.
On your second point, supporting the SNP on an informal C&S didn't do the Tories any harm, though Salmond was wise enough to govern in the centre anyway and throw the Tories the odd - low-level - meat. I'm doubtful Plaid would be so adept in managing the situation.
I think if anything working with the Tories to govern responsibly showed that the SNP were more than just a single issue party and reassured voters on the centre right that independence wouldn't lead to financial ruin under a permanent leftist coalition of SNP and Labour.
I don't find that cartoon either clever or particularly funny. It's very 'meh'.
On the contrary, I find it quite amusing. Don't forget, a lot of truth is hidden in humour.
Is the cartoonist "hiding some truth" in the "humour" of Boris having a 2003 TV show on VHS?
Boris didnt have a tv show in 2003, unless you count his appearances on HIGNFY.
You find the cartoon funny, so I can't tell if you're trying to be funny now..
In the bin under the table in the cartoon there is a VHS of the TV show The Apprentice, which was first made in 2003.
Classic cartoon tropes may not work in the modern era, but VHS tapes are easier to show than a DVD shelf. Someone talked about a Matt cartoon with a kid talking on a landline yesterday. Preposterous.
There's been better cartoons making the same point, frankly. I think everyone accepts that national leaders have to seek to work well with whoever is president, and therefore flipping in a dime to work with the next guy is accepted and not even to be criticised, so it just becomes an argument if Boris and co worked too hard to get along with Trump, which is a harder argument to make than 'hurr hurr, he worked with Trump now he has to work with Biden'.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Very good post, but I can't help objecting to "Labour deserve to lose power in Wales." If that's just your personal judgement, fine, I can't argue. But they are still the most popular party in Wales. Whatever their supposed failings, nobody has (yet) overtaken them.
I assume you have not lived under labour in Wales, sought medical treatment, sent your children to school or suffered the worst covid response in the four parts of the UK, otherwise you would know shy labour deserve to lose power
Whether they do is another matter but they absolutely do deserve to lose power
Of course, they totally ignore the EU shambles on the vaccine and the UK's stellar rollout which for the next 2 years matters far more than a few rotting haddock.
I wouldn't call the rollout by the UK of vaccines as "stellar". It only has that appearance because the EU isn't as good and the trade deal negotiated by the liar in chief is so crap.
The EU vaccine situation is an utter and absolute shambles
And yes, the UK's vaccine rollout is stellar. We pre-ordered in bulk from multiple developers: the greatest policy decision by any Government since the second world war. No exaggeration.
We have now jabbed nearly 10% of the adult population placing us roughly 3rd in the world. Our backing of Astra Zeneca and rollout of that has been a triumph.
It is an absolutely stellar achievement. Quite simply the greatest of my lifetime by any Government I have witnessed.
yours, a Labour voter last time.
It was a reasonably good idea. Even a very good idea. But let's not elevate it to "Two world wars, one world cup and a vaccine rollout" status, shall we? Not when we are unchallenged numero uno worldbeaters when it comes to deaths per head of population.
Obviously not comparable to a game of football and it's far better than our performance in the first world war.
We did okay in the second world war. Plenty of errors, much bravery, some luck and a great leader. But more than anything, the Americans.
So I will elevate it and so will the Conservatives backed by the press. When we've beaten this fucker, which we will in a matter of months, you are going to have to retreat to a hermitage because there will be praise for this Government's vaccine triumph like nothing else you've ever witnessed. Deservedly so.
We won the First World War, in case you hadn’t noticed.
As for the Second World War, it was the Soviets as much as the Americans in the West (I’m surprised a Labour poster has forgotten that). But truthfully, the Germans were never likely to be able to conquer the British Empire on their own despite what most people believed at the time. It was just too big and too difficult to get at. Whether that meant the British could have defeated the Germans on their own is a different question, and the answer’s ‘probably not.’ A stalemate would have been likelier. So Soviet and then American contributions were crucial in actually *winning* the war.
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Instead of posting every thing you can find that in your mind trashes the UK, why cannot you just be honest and openly accept the EU vaccination scheme is a disaster and will result in thousands of avoidable lost lives.
Then your other posts could be seen as more balanced as you are able to criticise the EU when they get things wrong, otherwise it is more than reasonable to conclude that you are simply an anti brexit obsessive with no balance and your postings are just tedious
This is rich coming from a pro tory pro brexit anti labour obsessive like yourself. There is nothing wrong with questioning issues affecting our country when they are becoming apparent to most people. There is no point in commenting on the EU as because you keep on saying, Brexit has happened and we can do nothing about it. We can though do something about our bunch of liars and hypocrits running our country.
Posting anti UK vaccination articles while not criticising the EU who are failing in a big way is all part of the attitude the EU can do no wrong
And of course the EU's failure is important as many on here and elsewhere condemned Boris for not joining it, when it was absolutely the correct decision as was his decision on the vaccine investments here in the UK
I am content if you just agree the EU has failed in its responsibility on the vaccine programme
I agree that the EU has totally cocked up their response to the vaccinations, but don't assume the UK response hasn't had it's issues. It is easy for 1 country to cut and run. Sadly we live in a selfish world.
Wait, we were told that it would be much easier in the EU vaccine scheme. Unforgivable that we didn't join, the experts said.
Impossible for us to purchase vaccines outside of the EU framework in March.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
A great post, highlighting our dilemma in Wales. I am surprised both yourself and Ydoethur see the Welsh Tories as our knights in shining armour, they look lacklustre to me.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
A great post, highlighting our dilemma in Wales. I am surprised both yourself and Ydoethur see the Welsh Tories as our knights in shining armour, they look lacklustre to me.
I don't think I have ever said the Welsh Tories are "knights in shining armour". Did YDoethur, I very much doubt it ?
Labour deserve to lose. No one deserves to win.
The problem is there are no knights in shining armour for Wales.
Indeed, there was no automaticity to what happened in Scotland – we should remember that in early 2011, Scottish Labour was well-set to evict the SNP from office. Only the far superior campaigning skills of Alex Salmond as against Iain Gray turned the tables.
That’s interesting. I wasn’t really paying attention to politics around that time as I was too busy with work, but I reckon the SNP were always likely to win in 2011 (though not necessarily a majority). I think the only reason Labour hung on to their Scottish seats at Westminster in 2010 was Gordon Brown.
Just to add, the bigger risk for the Tories is being seen to support a nationalist party. It could hurt them future elections in both Wales and Scotland.
No, Scottish Labour was way ahead in the polls at the start of 2011, leading by double-figures in the regional vote in most polls from June 2010 through to March 2011. As late as 28 March 2011 - less than six weeks from the election - SLab recorded a lead of +7.
Now, those polls might have been wrong - the SNP ended up winning by +18 when their best poll during the campaign was only +13 - but the SNP *did* record leads, including into double figures, during April. Before the election campaign, SLab looked likely to return.
On your second point, supporting the SNP on an informal C&S didn't do the Tories any harm, though Salmond was wise enough to govern in the centre anyway and throw the Tories the odd - low-level - meat. I'm doubtful Plaid would be so adept in managing the situation.
I think if anything working with the Tories to govern responsibly showed that the SNP were more than just a single issue party and reassured voters on the centre right that independence wouldn't lead to financial ruin under a permanent leftist coalition of SNP and Labour.
It probably helped that the Scottish Parliament had the Trots, sorry SSP, and the Greens to siphon off the lefties which might otherwise have remained in the SNP under a FPTP system - though that would have also helped SLAB, so perhaps it didn't make much difference.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Very good post, but I can't help objecting to "Labour deserve to lose power in Wales." If that's just your personal judgement, fine, I can't argue. But they are still the most popular party in Wales. Whatever their supposed failings, nobody has (yet) overtaken them.
No, he’s right. They do deserve to lose power in Wales. The reason they are still popular is because they have built up a substantial client vote over the last century that will vote for them regardless.
What seems to me to be changing is that recently it looks like they’ve given up even pretending to care about anyone else.
I'm not really sure what you mean by "client vote".
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Just had an email from a nearby council saying over 75s will now have to wait until next Thursday before they are started on despite any letter they have had.
I bet there are millions of over 75s in the EU who would gladly wait to next Thursday for their injection
Swings and roundabouts, though. Most nations (even Wales!) have substantially lower infection rates at the moment than England does. So there's less urgency, frankly.
The Johnson government did well at buying vaccines. Though we have to set that against the effort wasted on the other bits of science that were going to save us, including the app and rapid testing.
But in terms of saving lives, the inaction immediately after Christmas has cost a heck of a lot of lives, will cost more, and has forced us into rapid and riskier vaccination. I hope it works, but it is a gamble.
The 12 week second dose cycle could turn out to be a disastrous mistake. Let's all hope it doesn't.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
A great post, highlighting our dilemma in Wales. I am surprised both yourself and Ydoethur see the Welsh Tories as our knights in shining armour, they look lacklustre to me.
I don’t see them as ‘knights in shining armour.’ Anything but, as you may have noticed from my posts. What I do say is that at this moment they are the ones with the best chance of removing Labour from office.
As with the SNP, they may run a dreadful government when they get there, spending all their time throwing red meat to their noisier supporters to hide their abject performance, but if Wales is to advance at all it needs a functioning democratic system. At the moment, it is in effect a one party state and it’s no coincidence that it’s run on graft, corruption and incompetence as a result. So getting Labour out is the key to making a start.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
It needs the protest vote in Wales to unite behind either the Tories or Plaid.
At the moment the Tories have the wider reach, but Plaid possibly the necessary flexibility to reach out to a wider coalition. You could see Plaid picking up seats across Wales in the right circumstances, whereas despite recent changes it’s still very difficult to see how the Tories make significant inroads in the Valleys.
The situation suits Labour beautifully of course. It doesn’t suit Wales at all, but then, they don’t care about that.
But as you say, at some point it will end. Already Labour’s lack of talent is becoming embarrassing. A bit like the Communist Party in the dog days of Glasnost when they were a bunch of entitled fools made to look weak and vacillating by Sakharov’s nimble independents.
I agree with both yourself and the Bard that Labour needs to lose power. I voted Plaid at the last Assembly Elections, and was furious when Leanne tried her 'rainbow coalition' with UKIP and the Conservatives. For someone who doesn't want Drakeford as FM, I can categorically say I want Paul Davies as FM even less. If Plaid do any deals with the Tories, even in order to get Price into pole position as FM, they will go the way of the LDs in the rest of the UK.
It is a rather unpleasant conundrum.
In which case, Plaid is essentially an alter-Labour, ie a left competitor.
So Tories have four ideological opponents: Lab, PC, LDs and Greens; and two ideological competitors: Reform and Abolish.
I know this is still too simplistic and that PC and the LDs especially have the opportunity to “reach across”, but it helps to understand that in essence the government can only ever be Labour or Tory-led...until such time as PC can dislodge Labour from its role as “progressive hegemon”.
The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.
They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.
At this stage it wouldn't matter if they did with only 30m doses available.
Not been following this, but cant countries choose to licence whatever vaccine it wishes? From a source in Spain they have been jabbing almost as long as UK have - not sure what Brussels has to do with the process...?
No Spain waited till well after the UK in line with the EU timeline. Your source is misinformed.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
A great post, highlighting our dilemma in Wales. I am surprised both yourself and Ydoethur see the Welsh Tories as our knights in shining armour, they look lacklustre to me.
I don't think I have ever said the Welsh Tories are "knights in shining armour". Did YDoethur, I very much doubt it ?
Labour deserve to lose. No one deserves to win.
The problem is there are no knights in shining armour for Wales.
On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
Starmer does need a few 'big issue' things which he can say he would do. Blair did it in 1997 to actually sell himself and New labour. National Minimum Wage, Bank of England Independence, Working Family Tax Credit, removal of section 28, and I'm sure plenty more.
If I was him I would do the following:
Legalistion of Cannabis Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules.
At least that would get an arguement going and get some fire in his belly.
Legalistion of Cannabis - one of those things that for some weird reason has to be done by the Tories, Labour not allowed to do this or they are weak on crime, it will happen in the next 20 years at some point though Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) - will only ever be done piecemeal, too many jobs for ex MPs and too much patronage for whoever is PM Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) - too late Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) - too late (for now) Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules. - most of this likely to be done by Sunak
Cannabis - I think you might be wrong on that, I think if support for it grows either party could enact it. I believe the Congressional Cannabis Caucaus in the US is bipartisan (in fairness I dont know if they support full legalisation or just reform in various ways, but point being people on both sides work together on it). He can go for it without being overly hurt. Electoral Reform - I think you're dead right. There's a reason the 'temporary' situation with Hereditary peers had lasted over 20 years. They've made some minor changes in recent years, and they can implement some other improvements pretty easily, but it'll be incremental and glacial. It doesn't fire up people, no point focusing on it. Devo-Max - Agreed ETFA/EEA - I feel like Labour could pick one of them, or seem to generally want to go in that direction - they just need to imply some other state would be better, without suggesting rejoining, which is too sensitive a subject right now. Tax reform - pass.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Very good post, but I can't help objecting to "Labour deserve to lose power in Wales." If that's just your personal judgement, fine, I can't argue. But they are still the most popular party in Wales. Whatever their supposed failings, nobody has (yet) overtaken them.
A period in opposition might re-energise Labour in Wales. Unfortunately the Tories in Wales are so dire, this is more remote an idea than it should be. Add to that, as Johnson's likely wane in popularity takes shape, the Conservatives will be seen as even less of the answer this side of the Severn Bridge.
As the Brexit gift continues to give, I am more comfortable of a Plaid led independent Wales inside the EU. As the next few years post Covid, post Brexit come about, I suspect it becomes more likely.
Dodds made a big speech last week, which I, like many no doubt, completely missed.
Dunt has done a summary.
"Dodds understands that low interest rates mean it is currently very easy for the government to borrow money. “For as long as that is the case, government must make use of benign circumstances to avoid choking off recovery via premature and politically-motivated fiscal tightening,” she said. This is the sensible and humane Keynesian course. “But it would be an irresponsible economic policymaker who planned on the assumption that low interest rates will continue indefinitely.” "
"Dodds wants tax and spend projections to be extended from the current five years to ten, with estimates for the ten years after that, giving an overall 20-year budgeting horizon. This would hopefully open up a more honest debate about long-term issues like social care and gaps in pension provision."
Yes, I did link to this last week, but it attracted no interest at all! The speech was rather good, and Dodds is underrated. I suspect Sunak is more worried about her than he lets on. The full speech can be found here:
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
Very good post, but I can't help objecting to "Labour deserve to lose power in Wales." If that's just your personal judgement, fine, I can't argue. But they are still the most popular party in Wales. Whatever their supposed failings, nobody has (yet) overtaken them.
No, he’s right. They do deserve to lose power in Wales. The reason they are still popular is because they have built up a substantial client vote over the last century that will vote for them regardless.
What seems to me to be changing is that recently it looks like they’ve given up even pretending to care about anyone else.
I'm not really sure what you mean by "client vote".
People who are appointed to their jobs because of their links to the Labour Party, either as a whole or senior individuals within it.
Nobody has answered the point about the decline or the Liberals in Wales.
Presume - like the rest of the country - Labour supplanted them as the country industrialised. It probably happened later in Wales due to the sheer hold of rural Methodist style culture.
I guess Libs last redoubt is as a competitor to the Tories in Anglo rural areas.
The EU vaccine screw-up is the best argument for Brexit.
They STILL haven't approved the AZ vaccine which is, frankly, ridiculous and their rollout is a complete shambles.
At this stage it wouldn't matter if they did with only 30m doses available.
Not been following this, but cant countries choose to licence whatever vaccine it wishes? From a source in Spain they have been jabbing almost as long as UK have - not sure what Brussels has to do with the process...?
No Spain waited till well after the UK in line with the EU timeline. Your source is misinformed.
They seem to have gotten more jabs done, proportionally, than most of their fellows though.
I don’t see them as ‘knights in shining armour.’ Anything but, as you may have noticed from my posts. What I do say is that at this moment they are the ones with the best chance of removing Labour from office.
As with the SNP, they may run a dreadful government when they get there, spending all their time throwing red meat to their noisier supporters to hide their abject performance, but if Wales is to advance at all it needs a functioning democratic system. At the moment, it is in effect a one party state and it’s no coincidence that it’s run on graft, corruption and incompetence as a result. So getting Labour out is the key to making a start.
It’s just nearly impossible to do.
That is so close to my own POV, I might have mistaken it for one of my posts
On topic, Labour really need to get a grip on being a govt in waiting - after 10 years of Conservative rule and BJs weaknesses (and strengths) now well known the Opposition (and SKS) must get their act together or they face a mediocre May performance (if they take place)... what is their offer to the voters - if it aint Corbynism... is it TBlair 2.0? I for one am really sruggling to see their vision etc,
This is the problem. They haven't got anything except 'we're not them.'
Starmer does need a few 'big issue' things which he can say he would do. Blair did it in 1997 to actually sell himself and New labour. National Minimum Wage, Bank of England Independence, Working Family Tax Credit, removal of section 28, and I'm sure plenty more.
If I was him I would do the following:
Legalistion of Cannabis Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules.
At least that would get an arguement going and get some fire in his belly.
Sounds good. I'd really like to see the debate on drug laws in this country lifted out of the current gutter of tabloid ignorance and hypocrisy.
Yeah, friends in other countries are starting to openly scoff at the ongoing restrictions
Slightly odd letter from Boris this morning. He said:
"This I must say was in stark contrast to the Labour Party and Keir Starmer who took every opportunity to attack the heroic work of our Vaccine Taskforce.
Arguing that the UK should have joined the EU scheme – a policy which would have seen millions fewer of our most vulnerable protected as of today."
Obviously it is shocking that SKS didn't order a single dose of vaccine but I must have missed the last bit. Did he really say that? I don't think so.
Instead of posting every thing you can find that in your mind trashes the UK, why cannot you just be honest and openly accept the EU vaccination scheme is a disaster and will result in thousands of avoidable lost lives.
Then your other posts could be seen as more balanced as you are able to criticise the EU when they get things wrong, otherwise it is more than reasonable to conclude that you are simply an anti brexit obsessive with no balance and your postings are just tedious
This is rich coming from a pro tory pro brexit anti labour obsessive like yourself. There is nothing wrong with questioning issues affecting our country when they are becoming apparent to most people. There is no point in commenting on the EU as because you keep on saying, Brexit has happened and we can do nothing about it. We can though do something about our bunch of liars and hypocrits running our country.
Posting anti UK vaccination articles while not criticising the EU who are failing in a big way is all part of the attitude the EU can do no wrong
And of course the EU's failure is important as many on here and elsewhere condemned Boris for not joining it, when it was absolutely the correct decision as was his decision on the vaccine investments here in the UK
I am content if you just agree the EU has failed in its responsibility on the vaccine programme
Don't count your chickens. The only people I've heard of getting the vaccine over here are those with sharp elbows.
Wake up this morning and England's spinners still haven't taken a single wicket. Lordy, the India tour is going to be grim.
Looks like Anderson's just getting better with age though. He just needs longer breaks between tests.
Broad likewise. Neither particularly quick but highly skilled at their craft. Our spinners, however, are just not up to the mark at all. I think we have to go back to Moeen ahead of either of these 2.
Both leach and Bess took a five wicket haul in the last match, on a more spin friendly pitch. You don’t expect spin to bowl out sides first innings, no matter where in the world it is.
I mean, the situation is coming when the UK will have vaccinated 80% of the adult population and the EU will be languishing around 25%. We will be free to travel the world, they won't.
Unless covid mutates to body-swerve the vaccines, which it might, it's beaten in the UK. It's just a question of time. And jabs.
An incredible success story by science. And this Conservative Government.
Too soon to declare victory. However, as I said yesterday, *IF* the UK gets out the other side of the nightmare of cyclical lockdowns and can start rebuilding two or three months ahead of the EU27, then the savings from that will more than compensate for all the losses incurred through Brexit and the present clucking about non-tariff barriers and red tape.
The money saved from not having to keep the entire country under house arrest and forcibly shutter businesses for that extra period of time would be sufficient for the British Government to buy every inconvenienced fish exporter in the land his or her own weight in gold, and still have a truckload of cash left over.
I don’t see them as ‘knights in shining armour.’ Anything but, as you may have noticed from my posts. What I do say is that at this moment they are the ones with the best chance of removing Labour from office.
As with the SNP, they may run a dreadful government when they get there, spending all their time throwing red meat to their noisier supporters to hide their abject performance, but if Wales is to advance at all it needs a functioning democratic system. At the moment, it is in effect a one party state and it’s no coincidence that it’s run on graft, corruption and incompetence as a result. So getting Labour out is the key to making a start.
It’s just nearly impossible to do.
That is so close to my own POV, I might have mistaken it for one of my posts
Comments
I have a forlorn hope that, whatever the outcome of the upcoming election in Wales, parties can support or oppose one another on the basis of individual policy. If I lived in Wales, I would be giving at least my list vote to whoever seemed the most open to cross party cooperation.
Seems like a more important thing right now than almost any policy area.
I'm not that close to Welsh politics so I don't know... who would that be?
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1352894215005614081?s=21
Now, those polls might have been wrong - the SNP ended up winning by +18 when their best poll during the campaign was only +13 - but the SNP *did* record leads, including into double figures, during April. Before the election campaign, SLab looked likely to return.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_Scottish_Parliament_election
On your second point, supporting the SNP on an informal C&S didn't do the Tories any harm, though Salmond was wise enough to govern in the centre anyway and throw the Tories the odd - low-level - meat. I'm doubtful Plaid would be so adept in managing the situation.
That is not to say they would be particularly open to it, however.
Edit - incidentally the Tories would almost certainly be willing to work with Labour if it resulted in a Tory led government, probably more so than with Plaid, but Labour would certainly never offer it. It would be their answer to the LD fiasco on tuition fees.
Those jabbering that Brexit would be a disaster are looking increasingly whingeful. And our vaccine rollout is a stellar success, especially compared with the EU.
We made big mistakes last year but the Gov't have learned from them and polices now are just about right. Again, totally unlike Trump whose cavalier approach on the pandemic right to the end literally killed people.
Starmer has nothing to offer Britain right now.
If Johnson has any sense he will continue to tack soft left and then the next election will be his landslide. It will be like 1983: the pandemic conquest being similar to the Falklands.
And vice versa?
Whingeful. A new word which I like.
If I was him I would do the following:
Legalistion of Cannabis
Electoral Reform (including House of Lord)
Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union)
Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division)
Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules.
At least that would get an arguement going and get some fire in his belly.
To take an example - East Anglian matters could be dealt with by a supergroup composed of leads from Norfolk, Suffolk etc.
A bit like the EU Council
However, even such a parsimonious structure would need a secretariat / bureaucracy to make things happen.
Vaccinated? I'm travelling. It's not just the c. 95% protection. It's that even if you get it you won't get it severely.
The whole country will be done and dusted by late summer. We can do what we like and go anywhere that lets us in, which will be increasingly the case with our IATA pass.
Game on.
(Obviously, as with BLM, the virus is happy to respect political protesting and stay away).
It very nearly happened in 2007 (and, oh, if only it had happened it would be so much better for everyone) but the leavening factor of six Liberal Democrats would have been crucial, as was the influence of the then quite right wing Dafydd Elis Thomas for Plaid and left wing Glyn Davies for the Tories, the latter of whom is retired and the former has actually joined Labour.
It is just possible that they might agree to back a compromise all-party ministry led by a respected figure - e.g. Elin Jones - but it would take a long time to negotiate.
Frankly, the way polls are at the moment the best value might be in fresh elections this autumn due to no executive being agreed.
But I have no idea really, and I live in Wales
Dunt has done a summary.
"Dodds understands that low interest rates mean it is currently very easy for the government to borrow money. “For as long as that is the case, government must make use of benign circumstances to avoid choking off recovery via premature and politically-motivated fiscal tightening,” she said. This is the sensible and humane Keynesian course. “But it would be an irresponsible economic policymaker who planned on the assumption that low interest rates will continue indefinitely.” "
"Dodds wants tax and spend projections to be extended from the current five years to ten, with estimates for the ten years after that, giving an overall 20-year budgeting horizon. This would hopefully open up a more honest debate about long-term issues like social care and gaps in pension provision."
https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2021/01/21/under-the-radar-labours-progressive-economic-agenda/
Though only one region dared vote against his constitutional referendum last year, and that one was tiny.
"The title is "SENEDD SHAKE-UP: WHAT HAPPENS IF WELSH LABOUR LOSE THEIR MAJORITY?".
Actually, Labour don't have a majority at the moment. It is short by two. The Welsh Government includes the solitary Lib Dem (Kirsty Williams) and a renegade from Plaid Cymru (Dafydd Ellis Thomas).
Some Labour losses in Wales in 2021 look to me inevitable.
1n 2016, Labour were led by Carwyn Jones, who was certainly a formidable campaigner. Labour are now led by Mark Drakeford, who is not. That alone will mean some seat losses for Labour.
As David Herdson points out "if Wales were an independent state then its Covid deaths per million population would be second-worst in the world among countries of 1m+, behind only Belgium". Drakeford was given the credit earlier for what was then a better performance, and I expect him to get some of the blame if the COVID performance/vaccine rollout remains bad.
David quotes Awan-Scully's prediction
Lab 26, Con 16, Plaid 15, AtWA 2, LD 1
whereas in 2016, it was
Lab 29, Con 11, Plaid 12, UKIP 7, LD 1.
I think Labour will have done very well if they limit seat losses to just 3 seats.
Overall, the voting system that Tony Blair imposed on Wales is the worst gerrymander in the UK. Labour deserve to lose power in Wales. It helps parties to lose power, as they renew themselves in opposition. It is part of political evolution.
But, this can't happen in Wales. This is of course very bad for Wales, but it is also bad for Labour as well ... because when the change finally happens, it will be like Scotland 2015.
And yes, the UK's vaccine rollout is stellar. We pre-ordered in bulk from multiple developers: the greatest policy decision by any Government since the second world war. No exaggeration.
We have now jabbed nearly 10% of the adult population placing us roughly 3rd in the world. Our backing of Astra Zeneca and rollout of that has been a triumph.
It is an absolutely stellar achievement. Quite simply the greatest of my lifetime by any Government I have witnessed.
yours, a Labour voter last time.
As long as delivered vaccines are getting out into arms quickly, which at 400k yesterday, suggests they are, that is all the government can do.
At the moment the Tories have the wider reach, but Plaid possibly the necessary flexibility to reach out to a wider coalition. You could see Plaid picking up seats across Wales in the right circumstances, whereas despite recent changes it’s still very difficult to see how the Tories make significant inroads in the Valleys.
The situation suits Labour beautifully of course. It doesn’t suit Wales at all, but then, they don’t care about that.
But as you say, at some point it will end. Already Labour’s lack of talent is becoming embarrassing. A bit like the Communist Party in the dog days of Glasnost when they were a bunch of entitled fools made to look weak and vacillating by Sakharov’s nimble independents.
Is Wales essentially a left (Labour) vs right (Tory) type model, with Plaid effectively forming a pressure group able to compete with or partner with both?
OR is Plaid essentially a left wing pressure group for people who want more Wales, ie essentially a competitor to Labour on the left.
OR is Wales essentially two DIFFERENT systems: Labour vs Conservative in the more Anglo areas, and Labour vs Plaid in the Welsh sprechenraum?
I like Price and Ap Iorwedd, although people like Helen-Mary are a bit twp. I am hoping whatever happens, the Corbynista elements of Welsh Labour will wither away. I can see Ken "The Assassin" Skates becoming more prominent, which let's face it, is a step up from 'not-so magic grandpa, Mark'.
And where are these public conveniences in Cathays Park? I just use the Redwood Building facilities.
In the next few months we're going nowhere regardless, but once we get to the critical point at which hospitality reopens, holidays at home can be taken and social distancing is at least substantially relaxed, the notion of Fortress Britain will start to become increasingly appealing to a growing proportion of the electorate.
As with New Zealand, so with the UK: locking the world out is a price worth paying for freedom at home.
In the bin under the table in the cartoon there is a VHS of the TV show The Apprentice, which was first made in 2003.
And of course the EU's failure is important as many on here and elsewhere condemned Boris for not joining it, when it was absolutely the correct decision as was his decision on the vaccine investments here in the UK
I am content if you just agree the EU has failed in its responsibility on the vaccine programme
Predictions of the end (of dominance) for Labour in Wales seem to have been around forever and forever disappointed, but as an outsider it really does feel like the signs are there. When you start relying on the system in order to maintain control it's easy to get schlerotic and lazy.
It's a cliche, and yes there will be exceptions, but parties really can be in power too long and 'it's time for a change' becomes a powerful message. Local councils might just be able to get away with such long dominance (though even there it can become terrible, as a party forms its own factional opposition), but not a national assembly (actually I think it is now the parliament, so I guess they won't be AMs anymore? MWPs I guess.
Apologies if already pointed - very encouraging news!
https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1352696743570374656?s=21
What seems to me to be changing is that recently it looks like they’ve given up even pretending to care about anyone else.
So Dunt has recognised that a recovery might be possible under Brexit.
That must have been like pulling his own teeth with a bit of bent barbed wire
As IATA have made clear, in conjunction with Governments, have the vaccine and a PCR test on their App? Then you can travel.
I don't think you're being savvy enough about why the Gov't are making the noises they are. They know that they can't for a second give any impression that we're winning the battle. If there's even a chink then everyone will be outside.
They know that this is the final lockdown. People will simply not accept another one. Nor will they have to.
I'm tempted to add that despite one minor aberration when I criticised Alastair M for being too pessimistic I've been correct about this pandemic all the way along. Oh look, I just did.
In 3 months we'll back into tiers, not tears, and in 6 months we'll be in a new normal with a vaccinated population and no more covid than annual flu.
It's all over bar the jabs.
My favourite is when people talk about the Tories/SNP etc as not having won a majority of opinion in a vote, when self evidently no one else did either and they would at least be the most popular of the options.
Electoral Reform (including House of Lord) - will only ever be done piecemeal, too many jobs for ex MPs and too much patronage for whoever is PM
Devo-Max for Scotland and Wales (if there's still a scotland in the union) - too late
Joining ETFA/EEA (unlikely due to division) - too late (for now)
Tax reform, including Equalisation of income tax/capital gain tax rates, and removal of many CG reliefs for non business assets. Reform of IHT including lifetime gift rules. - most of this likely to be done by Sunak
The Johnson government did well at buying vaccines. Though we have to set that against the effort wasted on the other bits of science that were going to save us, including the app and rapid testing.
But in terms of saving lives, the inaction immediately after Christmas has cost a heck of a lot of lives, will cost more, and has forced us into rapid and riskier vaccination. I hope it works, but it is a gamble.
It is a rather unpleasant conundrum.
So you're stuck with Labour for eternity. Sorry.
Having a TV show on VHS = owning the VHS recording of a TV show.
Boris in the cartoon appears to own said VHS, hence him having a TV show on VHS.
We did okay in the second world war. Plenty of errors, much bravery, some luck and a great leader. But more than anything, the Americans.
So I will elevate it and so will the Conservatives backed by the press. When we've beaten this fucker, which we will in a matter of months, you are going to have to retreat to a hermitage because there will be praise for this Government's vaccine triumph like nothing else you've ever witnessed. Deservedly so.
There's been better cartoons making the same point, frankly. I think everyone accepts that national leaders have to seek to work well with whoever is president, and therefore flipping on a dime to work with the next guy is accepted and not even to be criticised, so it just becomes an argument if Boris and co worked too hard to get along with Trump, too closely, which is a harder argument to make than 'hurr hurr, he worked with Trump now he has to work with Biden'.
That was really deep humour.....:)
On most (all ?) metrics, Wales has gone backwards since 1999. Wales has the worst educational system, and the worst health outcomes of all the 4 countries in the UK. And they have gone backwards relative to Scotland, England & NI since 1999.
As always happens when one party remains in power for 20 years, there is a lot of corruption. For example, Labour in Wales refuse to have a register of lobbyists in the Senedd (unlike the case in Stormont, Holyrood & Westminster).
I want to see counties and districts competing with each other to attract business, and responsible for much more of the tax revenues generated within their area.
Building 10,000 new houses and a large business park should mean that everyone’s council tax falls. I don’t see any politician anywhere arguing for this.
I may hedge my bets in the next day or two, odds permitting.
Still expect Hamilton to be there, but I think the season would be better if he were not.
Unless covid mutates to body-swerve the vaccines, which it might, it's beaten in the UK. It's just a question of time. And jabs.
An incredible success story by science. And this Conservative Government.
Whether they do is another matter but they absolutely do deserve to lose power
As for the Second World War, it was the Soviets as much as the Americans in the West (I’m surprised a Labour poster has forgotten that). But truthfully, the Germans were never likely to be able to conquer the British Empire on their own despite what most people believed at the time. It was just too big and too difficult to get at. Whether that meant the British could have defeated the Germans on their own is a different question, and the answer’s ‘probably not.’ A stalemate would have been likelier. So Soviet and then American contributions were crucial in actually *winning* the war.
Labour deserve to lose. No one deserves to win.
The problem is there are no knights in shining armour for Wales.
As with the SNP, they may run a dreadful government when they get there, spending all their time throwing red meat to their noisier supporters to hide their abject performance, but if Wales is to advance at all it needs a functioning democratic system. At the moment, it is in effect a one party state and it’s no coincidence that it’s run on graft, corruption and incompetence as a result. So getting Labour out is the key to making a start.
It’s just nearly impossible to do.
So Tories have four ideological opponents: Lab, PC, LDs and Greens; and two ideological competitors: Reform and Abolish.
I know this is still too simplistic and that PC and the LDs especially have the opportunity to “reach across”, but it helps to understand that in essence the government can only ever be Labour or Tory-led...until such time as PC can dislodge Labour from its role as “progressive hegemon”.
Electoral Reform - I think you're dead right. There's a reason the 'temporary' situation with Hereditary peers had lasted over 20 years. They've made some minor changes in recent years, and they can implement some other improvements pretty easily, but it'll be incremental and glacial. It doesn't fire up people, no point focusing on it.
Devo-Max - Agreed
ETFA/EEA - I feel like Labour could pick one of them, or seem to generally want to go in that direction - they just need to imply some other state would be better, without suggesting rejoining, which is too sensitive a subject right now.
Tax reform - pass.
As the Brexit gift continues to give, I am more comfortable of a Plaid led independent Wales inside the EU. As the next few years post Covid, post Brexit come about, I suspect it becomes more likely.
https://labourlist.org/2021/01/a-false-choice-between-health-and-the-economy-anneliese-dodds-lse-speech/
Presume - like the rest of the country - Labour supplanted them as the country industrialised. It probably happened later in Wales due to the sheer hold of rural Methodist style culture.
I guess Libs last redoubt is as a competitor to the Tories in Anglo rural areas.
The money saved from not having to keep the entire country under house arrest and forcibly shutter businesses for that extra period of time would be sufficient for the British Government to buy every inconvenienced fish exporter in the land his or her own weight in gold, and still have a truckload of cash left over.
Really rather glad the heating returned to working order so promptly.
Anyway, time for a walk.
https://twitter.com/garius/status/1352649363902894085?s=20