The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
Not only are they making a false comparison on date of announcement, we know there are day of the week variations...specimen date is what matters...
It is of course ludicrous to compare today's figures with yesterday's and you rightly censor the BBC for doing so. As Gaussian says, the trend is still very much downwards, and that's the important thing.
However, it really doesn't matter that they are using the reporting date for case data, given that the data by specimen date shows even more of a weekend effect and is incomplete. I really don't know why you and others are making such a big deal of this.
It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.
The 7-day average by reporting date saves the discussion of how many of the last few days by specimen date need to be ignored, and has a little bit less lag. The cases number and chart on the "Daily update" page use reporting date numbers. The drawback is that any problems with the reporting system (other than the weekly rhythm) have more effect on it.
Yes, and it has proved its worth by predicting with reasonable accuracy the final value of the cases by specimen date. It absolutely makes sense to use the (averaged!) value by reporting date.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Hang on.
I'm not sure I agree with your maths (or maybe I explained myself poorly)
My proposal is that if anyone from a plane is found positive on day five, then everyone is quarantined for the full fourteen days. But if no-one is, then you can have people released on day five.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
And yes, I am a rinker.
I think it all comes down to personal taste. And I am quite sure that I haven't tasted all the whiskies in the world. Yet.
In January 2001 I visited a hotel bar in Stockholm which prided itself on its collection of whiskies. It had over 20 different types and I tried every one in a single sitting. There were some quite special labels. Wish I could remember the names.
I recommend the "Pot Still" in Glasgow. it is like a library of whisky.
University College, Durham ("Castle") used to have over 300 in its bar. Claimed to be the largest selection in the country.
I have just taken a call from our surgery calling both my wife and I in tomorrow for our covid vaccinations
The feeling is quite overwhelming and we feel so privileged
I have not been contributing too much recently, not least because of the downturn in our eldest sons mental health issues, but also I am delighted Trump has gone and Joe Biden is such a refreshing change that I wait to see how he gets on.
I am also brexit weary with the remainers v leavers continuing their battles, but to me I just cannot be bothered anymore
I hope everyone will soon receive the vaccine themselves, and that we can all look to a better future
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
I have just taken a call from our surgery calling both my wife and I in tomorrow for our covid vaccinations
The feeling is quite overwhelming and we feel so privileged
I have not been contributing too much recently, not least because of the downturn in our eldest sons mental health issues, but also I am delighted Trump has gone and Joe Biden is such a refreshing change that I wait to see now he gets on.
I am also brexit weary with the remainers v leavers continuing their battles, but to me I just cannot be bothered anymore
I hope everyone will soon receive the vaccine themselves, and that we can all look to a better future
The new variant of coronavirus discovered in Kent is up to 30 per cent more deadly than the original, Boris Johnson will announce later today.
Prof Neil Ferguson, who sits on Nervtag, the Government's virus advisory committee, said the latest data showed up to 13 in 1000 people aged 60 who contract the variant strain could die, compared with 10 in 1000 who caught the original variant.
Boris Johnson is expected to address the latest findings in a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.
"It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty," Prof Ferguson told ITV.
"Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death."
The professor said the data available on the new variant is patchy, but there is a "signal" that there is a "1.3-fold increased risk of death".
The new variant, which has now been reported across the UK and in several other countries, is also more transmissable.
Telegraph.
Pressure increases to lift lockdown....
Up pops shagger with the solution!!!
'Shagger' Johnson or 'Shagger' Ferguson?
Do we have to label all non-virgins with 'Shagger', btw? Or just those known to have committed adultery?
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.
Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
The whole blended thing is interesting. With wine, the whole single patch of grapes thing is quite recent. And to an extent, was an invention of the growers to get power away from the wholesalers.
I suppose. But blended is a mixture of two rather different things - grain spirit and assorted malts to add flavour. So it's not even equivalent to those cheap wines which are blended from different sources, never mind a single terroir.
Actually, there is some decent blended whisky - Grouse is a very good standby esp for visitors who like their whisky with lemonade etc. - but I'm old enough and with enough disposable income to satisfy my occasional wish for a single malt. The specialist whisky shops in Edinbrugh certainly don't turn up their noses at overseas malts in my experience, either.
There are also, of course, blended malts* (and some of the Japanese ones are rather good).
On topic, the question that McConnell and co have is do they feel they need to purge Trump?
And my guess is that the less we hear from Trump (and he has no voice right now), the less they feel the urge to purge.
The more pressing question surely is whether Trump feels he has the need to purge McConnell and Co?
Surely what is happening to Liz Cheney in Wyoming and in the house suggests that the balance of power in the republican party is with Trump.
Liz Cheney is being primaried. But the primary is not for another 18 months. We don't know yet if she'll fight off her challenger or not.
And I think this is a complex area: Ben Sasse was very anti-Trump and was primaried in Nebraska by an extremely well funded pro-Trump Matt Inis. Sasse hammered him 75:25.
7 day averages for cases & admissions still edging down - deaths still dire:
942 less patients admitted this past week than the week before. Which on the face of it is good news (unless all the beds are full and we can't admit any more, of course....).
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That message has been sadly lacking from the government after a 2 weeks post near death experience from Boris....and it could make a huge difference re Covid.
'Fat but fit' is a myth when it comes to heart health, new study shows
The whole "body positivity" stuff needs a dose of reality. Doesn't mean going all Marjorie Dawes, but this myth that you can be significantly overweight and still be healthy as those with a much lower BMI (yes I know flawed metric, insert waist to height, etc) needs putting to bed.
Yeah, if you are fat you are fat. No beating around the bush.
I have just taken a call from our surgery calling both my wife and I in tomorrow for our covid vaccinations
The feeling is quite overwhelming and we feel so privileged
I have not been contributing too much recently, not least because of the downturn in our eldest sons mental health issues, but also I am delighted Trump has gone and Joe Biden is such a refreshing change that I wait to see how he gets on.
I am also brexit weary with the remainers v leavers continuing their battles, but to me I just cannot be bothered anymore
I hope everyone will soon receive the vaccine themselves, and that we can all look to a better future
Pleased to hear it sir.
Some of my immediate family have been finding things tough too so I feel for you.
I have just taken a call from our surgery calling both my wife and I in tomorrow for our covid vaccinations
The feeling is quite overwhelming and we feel so privileged
I have not been contributing too much recently, not least because of the downturn in our eldest sons mental health issues, but also I am delighted Trump has gone and Joe Biden is such a refreshing change that I wait to see how he gets on.
I am also brexit weary with the remainers v leavers continuing their battles, but to me I just cannot be bothered anymore
I hope everyone will soon receive the vaccine themselves, and that we can all look to a better future
Pleased to hear it sir.
Some of my immediate family have been finding things tough too so I feel for you.
I have just taken a call from our surgery calling both my wife and I in tomorrow for our covid vaccinations
The feeling is quite overwhelming and we feel so privileged
I have not been contributing too much recently, not least because of the downturn in our eldest sons mental health issues, but also I am delighted Trump has gone and Joe Biden is such a refreshing change that I wait to see how he gets on.
I am also brexit weary with the remainers v leavers continuing their battles, but to me I just cannot be bothered anymore
I hope everyone will soon receive the vaccine themselves, and that we can all look to a better future
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
The new variant of coronavirus discovered in Kent is up to 30 per cent more deadly than the original, Boris Johnson will announce later today.
Prof Neil Ferguson, who sits on Nervtag, the Government's virus advisory committee, said the latest data showed up to 13 in 1000 people aged 60 who contract the variant strain could die, compared with 10 in 1000 who caught the original variant.
Boris Johnson is expected to address the latest findings in a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.
"It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty," Prof Ferguson told ITV.
"Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death."
The professor said the data available on the new variant is patchy, but there is a "signal" that there is a "1.3-fold increased risk of death".
The new variant, which has now been reported across the UK and in several other countries, is also more transmissable.
Telegraph.
Pressure increases to lift lockdown....
Up pops shagger with the solution!!!
'Shagger' Johnson or 'Shagger' Ferguson?
Do we have to label all non-virgins with 'Shagger', btw? Or just those known to have committed adultery?
I suppose we need a different term for those with a positive Ro above unity (a sort of opposite of a Darwin Award?).
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
Lockdowns don't 'work' in any normal sense of the word, as they destroy human lives.
Obviously R will fall if you lock people in their homes, prevent them seeing any friends or relations, close all pubs, theatres and anything vaguely fun and fine people for drinking tea with their mates in open spaces.
Lockdowns are a necessary evil at the moment.
What we need to do is calculate is what part of this effect is down to early vaccination effect coming into the data.
Just as well that the U.K. restrictions are miles away from what might be defined as a lockdown.
Incarcerating people in their homes, as one might describe it. It what happens in China, and happened briefly last March in some other, more authoritarian countries.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
Evidence new variant associated with a higher degree of mortality
The cynic in me hopes this is being over hyped to justify keeping us locked down for a while longer.
Its a bit like the new variant increases R by 0.7, well the R rate is now 0.8 so are they saying if it was the original Covid the R rate would now be 0.1
Reporting back from my Covid jab. Met at the door of Boots by a security guard to check that you are there for the vaccine. Taken to a member of staff who takes you to the back of the store and passes you on to a desk where there is a print-out of those booked in. Asked if you have any of the symptoms, hand sanitised, and then taken to seat in individual booths. After a few minutes taken through to another waiting area before been ushered into one of two surgeries. Checked with a laptop database to make sure you are who you say you are, asked a series of questions about medical record, tolerance of injections, etc. Then jabbed by a trained pharmacist. Finally taken to first waiting area for 15 minute wait to seen if there are any reactions. All the staff appeared to be Boots' employees with the possible exception of the security guards. The vaccine was Astra Zeneca.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I'd vouch for 2). Not doing that I seemed to automatically put on more than doing so.
But if you are quite heavy I actually found 6) motivating, as simply walking quite a bit (not even jogging) and cutting down foot intake there was a notable decrease day on day. Once the first, easy pounds were done, I stopped though.
Even though it is silly I'd also eat dinner pretty early, no snacking, and then weigh myself first thing - since it had been 12 hours+, I was definitely at my lightest for the day!
But I need to start doing it properly again, i've gotten chunky once more. Put back on 2 stone of the 3.5 I had lost.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
I continue to think - and it is no great original thought or insight - that excess deaths will be the only metric that anyone, and in particular the Great British public will or should care about in the months and years to come.
You'd think so, and yet- here we are, with a daily death rate comfortably above March/April 2020. It wouldn't be a shock if we had a couple of days with 2000 deaths reported in the next couple of weeks. But out on the streets, it doesn't feel like that.
Boris's Christmas Gift was a huge scandalous mistake, it was bound to end like this, and yet people don't seem bothered. I'm not sure I am, and I get numbers. Odd.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
And yes, I am a rinker.
I think it all comes down to personal taste. And I am quite sure that I haven't tasted all the whiskies in the world. Yet.
In January 2001 I visited a hotel bar in Stockholm which prided itself on its collection of whiskies. It had over 20 different types and I tried every one in a single sitting. There were some quite special labels. Wish I could remember the names.
I recommend the "Pot Still" in Glasgow. it is like a library of whisky.
And Glasgow a bit more "cred" on the whisky front than Stockholm, it being by all accounts in Scotland.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
Well done, SO. Really pleased to hear this.
What was your secret? I tried for 3-4 weeks and then get nowhere, disillusioned (and very hungry).
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
I continue to think - and it is no great original thought or insight - that excess deaths will be the only metric that anyone, and in particular the Great British public will or should care about in the months and years to come.
You'd think so, and yet- here we are, with a daily death rate comfortably above March/April 2020. It wouldn't be a shock if we had a couple of days with 2000 deaths reported in the next couple of weeks. But out on the streets, it doesn't feel like that.
Boris's Christmas Gift was a huge scandalous mistake, it was bound to end like this, and yet people don't seem bothered. I'm not sure I am, and I get numbers. Odd.
I think there's a degree of darkness induced apathy. Of course people do still care, but we're all a bit more numb to it now.
With the vaccine coming in other places and lockdowns potentially keeping a lid on things, quite possible we appear on some measures in the top 5 of the world even compared to micro nations, at which point, down the line, the anger will probably be palpable.
Whilst i appreciate it wont be a UK trial I think it is poor form on offering odds on anyone being convicted of a crime. This is not about liking or disliking Trump this is justice and fairness and being unbiased . I am sure it would not be allowed or considered right to do this for a UK case
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
Well done, SO. Really pleased to hear this.
What was your secret? I tried for 3-4 weeks and then get nowhere, disillusioned (and very hungry).
Whilst my achievement nowhere as impressive as Southams.
I cut out coke, beer and deserts.
I now treat myself to a couple of beers a week and I'm still losing weight, albeit more slowly.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
I managed to get down from 15 stone to just over 13 over the course of about 15 months. Eating less crap did the trick.
Now I vary between 13 and 13.5 stone. Still not managed to get below 13. Half a pound away has been my closest.
Whilst i appreciate it wont be a UK trial I think it is poor form on offering odds on anyone being convicted of a crime. This is not about liking or disliking Trump this is justice and fairness and being unbiased . I am sure it would not be allowed or considered right to do this for a UK case
Well there are big issues with having impeachment/attainder processes of course. But it is the process they are permitted to follow, and politics seems like it will be far more relevant to those involved on both sides than fairness.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
Well done, SO. Really pleased to hear this.
What was your secret? I tried for 3-4 weeks and then get nowhere, disillusioned (and very hungry).
Cheers - just keep going! I wrote down everything I ate at the start. It was a real pain, but I found it very helpful. The snacking really adds up. Once you see how much you are picking at throughout the day it gets easier to cut down.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
Well done, SO. Really pleased to hear this.
What was your secret? I tried for 3-4 weeks and then get nowhere, disillusioned (and very hungry).
For me it was doing lots of time on the bike, but the main thing was changing what I ate and drank.
I only drank bottled water for six weeks and felt the change.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I'd vouch for 2). Not doing that I seemed to automatically put on more than doing so.
But if you are quite heavy I actually found 6) motivating, as simply walking quite a bit (not even jogging) and cutting down foot intake there was a notable decrease day on day. Once the first, easy pounds were done, I stopped though.
Even though it is silly I'd also eat dinner pretty early, no snacking, and then weigh myself first thing - since it had been 12 hours+, I was definitely at my lightest for the day!
But I need to start doing it properly again, i've gotten chunky once more. Put back on 2 stone of the 3.5 I had lost.
Yes you're right - at the beginning it is very encouraging to see how you are actually losing weight.
I think diets work for most people (whether carrots and cabbage or chocolate cake) because they are doing something they hadn't done before - regulating their eating. In almost all cases just doing that will make a huge difference. Oh and the booze...
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I'd vouch for 2). Not doing that I seemed to automatically put on more than doing so.
But if you are quite heavy I actually found 6) motivating, as simply walking quite a bit (not even jogging) and cutting down foot intake there was a notable decrease day on day. Once the first, easy pounds were done, I stopped though.
Even though it is silly I'd also eat dinner pretty early, no snacking, and then weigh myself first thing - since it had been 12 hours+, I was definitely at my lightest for the day!
But I need to start doing it properly again, i've gotten chunky once more. Put back on 2 stone of the 3.5 I had lost.
Yep - I weigh myself every day. Sometimes, the results can be dispiriting, but overall it's incredibly helpful and pretty motivating in a one day at a time kind of way.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
I continue to think - and it is no great original thought or insight - that excess deaths will be the only metric that anyone, and in particular the Great British public will or should care about in the months and years to come.
You'd think so, and yet- here we are, with a daily death rate comfortably above March/April 2020. It wouldn't be a shock if we had a couple of days with 2000 deaths reported in the next couple of weeks. But out on the streets, it doesn't feel like that.
Boris's Christmas Gift was a huge scandalous mistake, it was bound to end like this, and yet people don't seem bothered. I'm not sure I am, and I get numbers. Odd.
I think there's a degree of darkness induced apathy. Of course people do still care, but we're all a bit more numb to it now.
With the vaccine coming in other places and lockdowns potentially keeping a lid on things, quite possible we appear on some measures in the top 5 of the world even compared to micro nations, at which point, down the line, the anger will probably be palpable.
Not at all sure about that. If and when we finally get out of this, everybody will be so bloody relieved they'll just want to get drunk as a lord, burn their sodding masks and then move on and forget the whole bloody miserable episode.
This won't apply to a lot of people who have been seriously ill or who have lost someone to the disease, but most of the population is not in that position.
Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'
I studied history to SYS level at school and got an A despite using books not statues as my primary source of information. What if the thing you learn from the past is that you shouldn't put bad people on plinths?
I confess to not being across the detail on this but I thought a baying mob needed to be in the mix for Jenrick to act. Has a baying mob gone unreported here due to media focus on Trump and Covid? Poor show if that's the case.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I lost 5 stone 3 years ago, since when (especially though lockdowns) I have put 2 and a bit back on. But... I am now back in weight-losing mode.
I'd agree with most of the points @Topping made but beg to differ on 3) and 5).
Yes, have a good breakfast but we found higher protein and lower carb for breakfast worked well and stops us being hungry during the day. So breakfast is often a acouple of eggs (boiled, poached or scrambled) or might be one egg with a couple of rashers of bacon. Fishfingers make an odd but nice breakfast.
2nd point - no need to make the menu boring. There are loads of interesting, filling things you can cook for 400 kCal a portion. Hairy Dieters book os a good place to start.
Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'
I studied history to SYS level at school and got an A despite using books not statues as my primary source of information. What if the thing you learn from the past is that you shouldn't put bad people on plinths?
I confess to not being across the detail on this but I thought a baying mob needed to be in the mix for Jenrick to act. Has a baying mob gone unreported here due to media focus on Trump and Covid? Poor show if that's the case.
I think he wants to introduce extra hoops to jump through if people are going to go through a formal process to make it generally harder, which is not completely unreasonable, but stepping in when people have already gone through the current process strikes me as unfair.
Already the press have turned 'some evidence' of extra deadliness into
30% more deadly definitely!
As Johnson knew they would.
Yeah right, the vaccines will set us free.
It means that as far as the Government is concerned, the greater fatalities are the fault of the new strain and not the fault of Boris opening up for Christmas.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I'd vouch for 2). Not doing that I seemed to automatically put on more than doing so.
But if you are quite heavy I actually found 6) motivating, as simply walking quite a bit (not even jogging) and cutting down foot intake there was a notable decrease day on day. Once the first, easy pounds were done, I stopped though.
Even though it is silly I'd also eat dinner pretty early, no snacking, and then weigh myself first thing - since it had been 12 hours+, I was definitely at my lightest for the day!
But I need to start doing it properly again, i've gotten chunky once more. Put back on 2 stone of the 3.5 I had lost.
Yep - I weigh myself every day. Sometimes, the results can be dispiriting, but overall it's incredibly helpful and pretty motivating in a one day at a time kind of way.
Yes I hear you. It's just that when you plateau it can be dispiriting. Every few days or week would be my thinking but hey, you are the walking, talking (but not eating) example so I am not arguing!
It looks good at first sight, but it ignores the crucial fact that healthcare workers who have been vaccinated no longer have to self-isolate if they are in contact with someone infected. So the improvement may be largely or entirely explained by that, not by the vaccine protecting them (yet).
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I'd vouch for 2). Not doing that I seemed to automatically put on more than doing so.
But if you are quite heavy I actually found 6) motivating, as simply walking quite a bit (not even jogging) and cutting down foot intake there was a notable decrease day on day. Once the first, easy pounds were done, I stopped though.
Even though it is silly I'd also eat dinner pretty early, no snacking, and then weigh myself first thing - since it had been 12 hours+, I was definitely at my lightest for the day!
But I need to start doing it properly again, i've gotten chunky once more. Put back on 2 stone of the 3.5 I had lost.
Yep - I weigh myself every day. Sometimes, the results can be dispiriting, but overall it's incredibly helpful and pretty motivating in a one day at a time kind of way.
It also made sure I did some exercise even if only 1/2 hour every day, by making me concentrate on the desire to have daily progress.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
I continue to think - and it is no great original thought or insight - that excess deaths will be the only metric that anyone, and in particular the Great British public will or should care about in the months and years to come.
You'd think so, and yet- here we are, with a daily death rate comfortably above March/April 2020. It wouldn't be a shock if we had a couple of days with 2000 deaths reported in the next couple of weeks. But out on the streets, it doesn't feel like that.
Boris's Christmas Gift was a huge scandalous mistake, it was bound to end like this, and yet people don't seem bothered. I'm not sure I am, and I get numbers. Odd.
"On the streets" when it comes to deaths as opposed to fear, illness, hospitalisation etc there are a couple of factors applying to most people apart from those with an occupational connection.
1454 people died each day in the England and Wales in 2019. The increase ('excess deaths') in the last year is maybe 15% -20%. So that for every 10 people you know dying in 2018/19, now about 11.5-12 are doing so. And most of them are 80 +. That is not the sort of increase any individual is going to notice as such in their immediate circle unless you are very unlucky. And, unless something even awfuller happens there will be a dip the other way in the following years.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I lost 5 stone 3 years ago, since when (especially though lockdowns) I have put 2 and a bit back on. But... I am now back in weight-losing mode.
I'd agree with most of the points @Topping made but beg to differ on 3) and 5).
Yes, have a good breakfast but we found higher protein and lower carb for breakfast worked well and stops us being hungry during the day. So breakfast is often a acouple of eggs (boiled, poached or scrambled) or might be one egg with a couple of rashers of bacon. Fishfingers make an odd but nice breakfast.
2nd point - no need to make the menu boring. There are loads of interesting, filling things you can cook for 400 kCal a portion. Hairy Dieters book os a good place to start.
Good luck.
Well done for 3 yrs ago and I hope well done again now!
Yes you are right. Protein is good in the morning. You need to get past that 11am sugar low so I agree maybe even sausage, egg and chips. I was thinking more in steady state but you are right for the actual diet.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
I continue to think - and it is no great original thought or insight - that excess deaths will be the only metric that anyone, and in particular the Great British public will or should care about in the months and years to come.
You'd think so, and yet- here we are, with a daily death rate comfortably above March/April 2020. It wouldn't be a shock if we had a couple of days with 2000 deaths reported in the next couple of weeks. But out on the streets, it doesn't feel like that.
Boris's Christmas Gift was a huge scandalous mistake, it was bound to end like this, and yet people don't seem bothered. I'm not sure I am, and I get numbers. Odd.
I think there's a degree of darkness induced apathy. Of course people do still care, but we're all a bit more numb to it now.
With the vaccine coming in other places and lockdowns potentially keeping a lid on things, quite possible we appear on some measures in the top 5 of the world even compared to micro nations, at which point, down the line, the anger will probably be palpable.
Not at all sure about that. If and when we finally get out of this, everybody will be so bloody relieved they'll just want to get drunk as a lord, burn their sodding masks and then move on and forget the whole bloody miserable episode.
This won't apply to a lot of people who have been seriously ill or who have lost someone to the disease, but most of the population is not in that position.
I'm not thinking of the immediate reaction, but when people have that big blow out and start contemplating things - politically it will remain a live issue, so poor peformance will get hammered into the public consciousness.
Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'
I studied history to SYS level at school and got an A despite using books not statues as my primary source of information. What if the thing you learn from the past is that you shouldn't put bad people on plinths?
I learned from the Statue of Liberty that the American Revolution was won by Amazons.
I studied the American Civil War in SYS history, that is one period of history where learning about it through the medium of statues would give you some very funny ideas (it was definitely nothing to do with slavery, and the Confederacy won).
Reporting back from my Covid jab. Met at the door of Boots by a security guard to check that you are there for the vaccine. Taken to a member of staff who takes you to the back of the store and passes you on to a desk where there is a print-out of those booked in. Asked if you have any of the symptoms, hand sanitised, and then taken to seat in individual booths. After a few minutes taken through to another waiting area before been ushered into one of two surgeries. Checked with a laptop database to make sure you are who you say you are, asked a series of questions about medical record, tolerance of injections, etc. Then jabbed by a trained pharmacist. Finally taken to first waiting area for 15 minute wait to seen if there are any reactions. All the staff appeared to be Boots' employees with the possible exception of the security guards. The vaccine was Astra Zeneca.
Thanks for that as my wife and I have ours tomorrow
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
On Boxing Day, I decided to get fit, and have lost over 7kgs in the last four weeks.
It was done by a combination of Peloton, no alcohol, and eating healthily.
Already the press have turned 'some evidence' of extra deadliness into
30% more deadly definitely!
As Johnson knew they would.
Yeah right, the vaccines will set us free.
It means that as far as the Government is concerned, the greater fatalities are the fault of the new strain and not the fault of Boris opening up for Christmas.
And yet one of these graphs is increasingly not like the others...
It looks good at first sight, but it ignores the crucial fact that healthcare workers who have been vaccinated no longer have to self-isolate if they are in contact with someone infected. So the improvement may be largely or entirely explained by that, not by the vaccine protecting them (yet).
Integrating under the green curve for the first peak shows they were clobbered a lot harder in the first wave. So it may be more to do with immunity from already having had it, rather than the vaccine.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
Well done, SO. Really pleased to hear this.
What was your secret? I tried for 3-4 weeks and then get nowhere, disillusioned (and very hungry).
Whilst my achievement nowhere as impressive as Southams.
I cut out coke, beer and deserts.
I now treat myself to a couple of beers a week and I'm still losing weight, albeit more slowly.
Which deserts have you cut out? I've cut out the Sahara and the Namib but I still take the caravan to the Gobi once in a while.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Now, it may be worth going "the whole hog" and cutting it to zero (although even Australia hasn't quite managed that)
The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:
The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
"Zero Covid" doesn't literally mean zero.
Then an alternative description might be helpful - I have seen some describe "Zero COVID" as "Zero cases".
Agreed, it's catchy but somewhat misleading branding. "Suppressed Covid"?
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I lost 5 stone 3 years ago, since when (especially though lockdowns) I have put 2 and a bit back on. But... I am now back in weight-losing mode.
I'd agree with most of the points @Topping made but beg to differ on 3) and 5).
Yes, have a good breakfast but we found higher protein and lower carb for breakfast worked well and stops us being hungry during the day. So breakfast is often a acouple of eggs (boiled, poached or scrambled) or might be one egg with a couple of rashers of bacon. Fishfingers make an odd but nice breakfast.
2nd point - no need to make the menu boring. There are loads of interesting, filling things you can cook for 400 kCal a portion. Hairy Dieters book os a good place to start.
Good luck.
+1 for the Hairy Dieters book. We inherited one by accident (a family member ended up with two, we weren't looking to diet both being fit 20-somethings at the time) but thought the recipes looked nice and several are now common dishes in our diet. We do sometimes add a bit more of the bad stuff
It looks good at first sight, but it ignores the crucial fact that healthcare workers who have been vaccinated no longer have to self-isolate if they are in contact with someone infected. So the improvement may be largely or entirely explained by that, not by the vaccine protecting them (yet).
Although it is worth remembering that if they don't need to self isolate, they are also much more likely to be exposed to CV19, so ceteris paribus, they would be more likely to catch it. (With the proviso, that there may also be a degree of immunity in the population from high exposure in wave one.)
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
On Boxing Day, I decided to get fit, and have lost over 7kgs in the last four weeks.
It was done by a combination of Peloton, no alcohol, and eating healthily.
I shifted 4st 9 between April and September 2019. Primarily Slimming World, sped up a little by more exercise. Good timing, given how vulnerable fatties are to Covid.
My take away from that experience (and previous failures) is that it's all about breaking down and reforming bad eating habits. Exercise can help you lose weight a bit quicker, but it has to be done first and foremost for its own sake. If you try to keep eating a load of crap, whilst relying on the workouts to get all the weight off, then this always fails in the long run.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Hang on.
I'm not sure I agree with your maths (or maybe I explained myself poorly)
My proposal is that if anyone from a plane is found positive on day five, then everyone is quarantined for the full fourteen days. But if no-one is, then you can have people released on day five.
The evidence is that 7% of those tested only tested positive on Day 13 - which suggests that testing at Day 5 will release infected people into the community.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey. So she's stuck in PEH.
They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here. - Edit - AZN has been on Alderney for a week:
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I'd vouch for 2). Not doing that I seemed to automatically put on more than doing so.
But if you are quite heavy I actually found 6) motivating, as simply walking quite a bit (not even jogging) and cutting down foot intake there was a notable decrease day on day. Once the first, easy pounds were done, I stopped though.
Even though it is silly I'd also eat dinner pretty early, no snacking, and then weigh myself first thing - since it had been 12 hours+, I was definitely at my lightest for the day!
But I need to start doing it properly again, i've gotten chunky once more. Put back on 2 stone of the 3.5 I had lost.
Yes you're right - at the beginning it is very encouraging to see how you are actually losing weight.
I think diets work for most people (whether carrots and cabbage or chocolate cake) because they are doing something they hadn't done before - regulating their eating. In almost all cases just doing that will make a huge difference. Oh and the booze...
The booze is a right b'stard, isn't it? I managed to cut down by making a promise to myself to not have any alcohol the night before a day at work and that gives me at least 3 nights a week where I can't drink. I wasn't a boozer, but like a whisky or rum in my hand of an evening. It really helped, and now I only really drink at weekends if I'm not at work. One other thing.... going to a plant based diet really, really helped. At a stroke it cuts out cream cakes and chocolate. I'm fitter, leaner, sleep better, lifting more in the gym and with less (fewer? I can't be arsed!) aches and pains than I can ever remember. Diet is key, though. Not dieting. Eat better, move more, really does work, and as you say, if you fall off the wagon, reset yourself then climb back on.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I lost 5 stone 3 years ago, since when (especially though lockdowns) I have put 2 and a bit back on. But... I am now back in weight-losing mode.
I'd agree with most of the points @Topping made but beg to differ on 3) and 5).
Yes, have a good breakfast but we found higher protein and lower carb for breakfast worked well and stops us being hungry during the day. So breakfast is often a acouple of eggs (boiled, poached or scrambled) or might be one egg with a couple of rashers of bacon. Fishfingers make an odd but nice breakfast.
2nd point - no need to make the menu boring. There are loads of interesting, filling things you can cook for 400 kCal a portion. Hairy Dieters book os a good place to start.
Good luck.
+1 for the Hairy Dieters book. We inherited one by accident (a family member ended up with two, we weren't looking to diet both being fit 20-somethings at the time) but thought the recipes looked nice and several are now common dishes in our diet. We do sometimes add a bit more of the bad stuff
The thing I have against fancy menu plans or diet books is that they make you do the thing you are trying to not do - obsess about food. Diets are not great (although I appreciate they are necessary as shock tactics) because all you are doing is thinking about food for your waking hours. Hence my advice to keep it boring. Don't think of extravagant meals which take all sorts of preparation because there you are surrounded by food again.
Although I agree if you need to lose a lot of weight and have been overeating a lot then any diet by anyone will work as you are regulating your calorie intake.
Yep. Never assume that this thing can't get any worse, because it always can and it usually will.
You are too gloomy (imo) but you aren't catastrophizing. I think we'll start a slow return to normality this Spring and will be there by next Summer but it's not certain. I reckon there's about a 10% chance of a mini black swan. Covid lives now, it's had its big bang, and with life comes possibilities. It might mutate to become more infectious, more resilient to vaccines, more deadly to the old, more dangerous to the young. Even if it doesn't there's a massive challenge in getting it under control not just in a few countries but globally. And then there's the psychological impact and behavioural change. Some of this could be here for keeps. I think it's good to hold these bleaker prospects in mind as well as the more rational hope and expectation that we'll soon be over the worst.
Interesting comment from the PM press conference - if 1 in 35 in London are infected - then the likelihood is that around a dozen out of the 400 at that wedding were already infected....
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That's inspired me, thanks. I've been trying to lose two stones, but have so far only lost two pounds. I shall forgive myself and keep on trying!
Apart from the very sensible advice from @Southam (eat less, exercise more) - I would add the following:
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown). 2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time). 3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch). 4) don't eat between meals 5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day. 6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
I'd vouch for 2). Not doing that I seemed to automatically put on more than doing so.
But if you are quite heavy I actually found 6) motivating, as simply walking quite a bit (not even jogging) and cutting down foot intake there was a notable decrease day on day. Once the first, easy pounds were done, I stopped though.
Even though it is silly I'd also eat dinner pretty early, no snacking, and then weigh myself first thing - since it had been 12 hours+, I was definitely at my lightest for the day!
But I need to start doing it properly again, i've gotten chunky once more. Put back on 2 stone of the 3.5 I had lost.
Yes you're right - at the beginning it is very encouraging to see how you are actually losing weight.
I think diets work for most people (whether carrots and cabbage or chocolate cake) because they are doing something they hadn't done before - regulating their eating. In almost all cases just doing that will make a huge difference. Oh and the booze...
The booze is a right b'stard, isn't it? I managed to cut down by making a promise to myself to not have any alcohol the night before a day at work and that gives me at least 3 nights a week where I can't drink. I wasn't a boozer, but like a whisky or rum in my hand of an evening. It really helped, and now I only really drink at weekends if I'm not at work. One other thing.... going to a plant based diet really, really helped. At a stroke it cuts out cream cakes and chocolate. I'm fitter, leaner, sleep better, lifting more in the gym and with less (fewer? I can't be arsed!) aches and pains than I can ever remember. Diet is key, though. Not dieting. Eat better, move more, really does work, and as you say, if you fall off the wagon, reset yourself then climb back on.
Interesting comment from the PM press conference - if 1 in 35 in London are infected - then the likelihood is that around a dozen out of the 400 at that wedding were already infected....
Comments
I'm not sure I agree with your maths (or maybe I explained myself poorly)
My proposal is that if anyone from a plane is found positive on day five, then everyone is quarantined for the full fourteen days. But if no-one is, then you can have people released on day five.
The feeling is quite overwhelming and we feel so privileged
I have not been contributing too much recently, not least because of the downturn in our eldest sons mental health issues, but also I am delighted Trump has gone and Joe Biden is such a refreshing change that I wait to see how he gets on.
I am also brexit weary with the remainers v leavers continuing their battles, but to me I just cannot be bothered anymore
I hope everyone will soon receive the vaccine themselves, and that we can all look to a better future
Do we have to label all non-virgins with 'Shagger', btw? Or just those known to have committed adultery?
*Blends of malts from more than one distillery.
And I think this is a complex area: Ben Sasse was very anti-Trump and was primaried in Nebraska by an extremely well funded pro-Trump Matt Inis. Sasse hammered him 75:25.
Evidence new variant associated with a higher degree of mortality
Some of my immediate family have been finding things tough too so I feel for you.
But hang on in there - we will get through this
Just as the pressure to end lockdown increases!
We are never getting out. Until we say we are.
1) cut out alcohol at least for a while (maybe impossible in lockdown).
2) plan out and have a set menu every day so you know what you are going to eat, whether it's a fancy menu plan, or something you do (eg. mass cook carrots, broccoli, etc and dollop it out each meal time).
3) have a good breakfast (not sausage, egg and chips - but toast and marmalade or somesuch).
4) don't eat between meals
5) make the menu boring with a treat once a day.
6) don't weigh yourself every day.
I'm sure you know all this so apols if so.
Incarcerating people in their homes, as one might describe it. It what happens in China, and happened briefly last March in some other, more authoritarian countries.
Looking a bit iffy now due to our superfast, super DEADLY strain!
Still effective or need a bit of tweaking?
But if you are quite heavy I actually found 6) motivating, as simply walking quite a bit (not even jogging) and cutting down foot intake there was a notable decrease day on day. Once the first, easy pounds were done, I stopped though.
Even though it is silly I'd also eat dinner pretty early, no snacking, and then weigh myself first thing - since it had been 12 hours+, I was definitely at my lightest for the day!
But I need to start doing it properly again, i've gotten chunky once more. Put back on 2 stone of the 3.5 I had lost.
Boris's Christmas Gift was a huge scandalous mistake, it was bound to end like this, and yet people don't seem bothered. I'm not sure I am, and I get numbers. Odd.
It leaves it here semi-permanently,
Don't bother asking.
We'll let you know....
Some time in 2022?
What was your secret? I tried for 3-4 weeks and then get nowhere, disillusioned (and very hungry).
With the vaccine coming in other places and lockdowns potentially keeping a lid on things, quite possible we appear on some measures in the top 5 of the world even compared to micro nations, at which point, down the line, the anger will probably be palpable.
I cut out coke, beer and deserts.
I now treat myself to a couple of beers a week and I'm still losing weight, albeit more slowly.
Now I vary between 13 and 13.5 stone. Still not managed to get below 13. Half a pound away has been my closest.
30% more deadly definitely!
As Johnson knew they would.
Yeah right, the vaccines will set us free.
Christmas/New Year unwinding effect.
I only drank bottled water for six weeks and felt the change.
I think diets work for most people (whether carrots and cabbage or chocolate cake) because they are doing something they hadn't done before - regulating their eating. In almost all cases just doing that will make a huge difference. Oh and the booze...
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1352662022266249218
https://twitter.com/PeterWestmacott/status/1352658172037787649
This won't apply to a lot of people who have been seriously ill or who have lost someone to the disease, but most of the population is not in that position.
I'd agree with most of the points @Topping made but beg to differ on 3) and 5).
Yes, have a good breakfast but we found higher protein and lower carb for breakfast worked well and stops us being hungry during the day. So breakfast is often a acouple of eggs (boiled, poached or scrambled) or might be one egg with a couple of rashers of bacon. Fishfingers make an odd but nice breakfast.
2nd point - no need to make the menu boring. There are loads of interesting, filling things you can cook for 400 kCal a portion. Hairy Dieters book os a good place to start.
Good luck.
https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1352347551362670594
It looks good at first sight, but it ignores the crucial fact that healthcare workers who have been vaccinated no longer have to self-isolate if they are in contact with someone infected. So the improvement may be largely or entirely explained by that, not by the vaccine protecting them (yet).
1454 people died each day in the England and Wales in 2019. The increase ('excess deaths') in the last year is maybe 15% -20%. So that for every 10 people you know dying in 2018/19, now about 11.5-12 are doing so. And most of them are 80 +. That is not the sort of increase any individual is going to notice as such in their immediate circle unless you are very unlucky. And, unless something even awfuller happens there will be a dip the other way in the following years.
Yes you are right. Protein is good in the morning. You need to get past that 11am sugar low so I agree maybe even sausage, egg and chips. I was thinking more in steady state but you are right for the actual diet.
It was done by a combination of Peloton, no alcohol, and eating healthily.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=e92000001&areas=s92000003&areas=w92000004&areas=n92000002&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usia&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
My take away from that experience (and previous failures) is that it's all about breaking down and reforming bad eating habits. Exercise can help you lose weight a bit quicker, but it has to be done first and foremost for its own sake. If you try to keep eating a load of crap, whilst relying on the workouts to get all the weight off, then this always fails in the long run.
One other thing.... going to a plant based diet really, really helped. At a stroke it cuts out cream cakes and chocolate. I'm fitter, leaner, sleep better, lifting more in the gym and with less (fewer? I can't be arsed!) aches and pains than I can ever remember.
Diet is key, though. Not dieting. Eat better, move more, really does work, and as you say, if you fall off the wagon, reset yourself then climb back on.
Although I agree if you need to lose a lot of weight and have been overeating a lot then any diet by anyone will work as you are regulating your calorie intake.
But we should try to look longer term.
From case data
From hospitalisation data