Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.
Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.
Not for long, I hope.
US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.
Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.
Commiserations - this new variant seems to go right through households despite the precautions people take. Before we'd had people self isolating successfully in a household - now we're seeing cases spread to the whole household.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
“When all is said and done”? It’s good to see you have a newfound sense of optimism that this will eventually come to an end.
No I meant by the end of the financial year. At the end of March.
Its clear that lockdown is going on well, well after that. Ministers briefing today that schools will not even open AFTER easter.
And now Sunak is proposing tax rises. Into an economy that is still in lockdown and has had the worst hammering for three hundred years. Its a bold strategy Cotton....
Actually a PhD student conference organised - I think - by the students. Would appear to be students, rather than academics, being woke. Students will woke, what can you do?
Yep, I'm verbing 'woke' there, in the new sense of the word, rather than the original in which it is of course a verb. Bite me
What's next? Banning white people from eating bananas in public perhaps.
Haven't we already done that? Not only for white people of course. Would count as a picnic, would it not?
Yes, some of my friends who have struggled a bit money wise over the last few months have been making jokes about this saying they'll be off to the nearest populated enclosed space or down the supermarket to lick trolley handles. I know they're not serious, but for others the situation will probably be worth the risk.
I can understand that, its something that should be smart but already last night people were talking about it as "£500 for catching Covid" which kind of misses the point. Why do people have to be idiots? 🙄
"Problematizing or considering who has a right to sensory-based pleasure and/or fixation and the relationship between racist, ableist, gender-violent, fatphobic, ageist, homophobic, and transphobic discourses which over- and/or underdetermine the sensate body;"
Literally rammed every -ist word into one horrible sentence.
"Problematizing or considering who has a right to sensory-based pleasure and/or fixation and the relationship between racist, ableist, gender-violent, fatphobic, ageist, homophobic, and transphobic discourses which over- and/or underdetermine the sensate body;"
Literally rammed every -ist word into one horrible sentence.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
Yep, God forbid we raise taxes, especially on property.
Goodness, thats a plan? that's a plan?
Inflation destroys the quality of life and standard of living of ordinary people.
No tory administration is going to survive that.
I agree with you. The burden ought to be shared more fairly than through inflation, which will primarily hurt people who earn or have saved money (including in pensions), while sending property and other asset prices even further into the stratosphere.
More importantly however, I think Barack Obama wins this contest, though I'd give the prize to George W. Bush for having Casino Royale on his watch, like Iraq, we can pretend Die Another Day never happened.
Harvey Dent as the economy post-Covid. Sunak as the Joker.
I wonder how Sweden's doing?
Pretty badly it seems.
Yeah but but not their economy.
They might at least save something if it ever ends, and have some money to preserve the livelihoods, living standards and health outcomes of those under 80s who do survive.
Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.
Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.
Not for long, I hope.
US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.
Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.
So sorry to hear this Cyclefree. Thinking of you and your family, and wishing a swift recovery for them all.
Harvey Dent as the economy post-Covid. Sunak as the Joker.
I wonder how Sweden's doing?
Pretty badly it seems.
Yeah but but not their economy.
They might at least save something if it ever ends, and have some money to preserve the livelihoods, living standards and health outcomes of those under 80s who do survive.
Unlike us, FFS.
I don't think there'll a big difference economically when all is said and done.
"Problematizing or considering who has a right to sensory-based pleasure and/or fixation and the relationship between racist, ableist, gender-violent, fatphobic, ageist, homophobic, and transphobic discourses which over- and/or underdetermine the sensate body;"
Literally rammed every -ist word into one horrible sentence.
People who see everything in the world through this kind of lens must be in a permanent state of outrage each and every day, and of course nobody, not even themselves, can live up to a standard where their words or actions never verge into one of these horrid forms of oppression.
There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.
There's going to be a very delicate situation now, where, leaving aside the organisers and 5 token fines of £200, some 395 other people attending a wedding party appear to have been let off scot free.
So for all Patel's fine words, in practice we can see that they're making no difference and flouting of the rules is still being allowed to happen. Even if it were 10 people getting off scot free I'd be pissed off, let alone 400 in a North London superspreader event.
Depends how many cops there were. The organisers are identifiabvle easily, and the cops presumably grab as many as they can - - but how many can they do without a major inquiry?
Well the vaccine minster has said categorically it isn't true.... everybody is getting less next week due to supply issues. The media reports were based on they were told a reduction was coming and then wrote a story it is because our region has done so well. Unless the minster is lying on record, they have put 2 and 2 together and got 5.
There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.
There's going to be a very delicate situation now, where, leaving aside the organisers and 5 token fines of £200, some 395 other people attending a wedding party appear to have been let off scot free.
So for all Patel's fine words, in practice we can see that they're making no difference and flouting of the rules is still being allowed to happen. Even if it were 10 people getting off scot free I'd be pissed off, let alone 400 in a North London superspreader event.
Depends how many cops there were. The organisers are identifiabvle easily, and the cops presumably grab as many as they can - - but how many can they do without a major inquiry?
Presumably there would be a guest list?
They might have been invited - but what's the proof they were there? It'd be a massive inquiry into things like videos and photographs.
This lockdown is based on an enormous mountain of misery. It is imposed by those whose paychecks, pensions and lifstyles are not affected. Indeed, some are enhanced.
Enhanced at enormous cost to others.
If Rishi Sunak had any guts whatsoever he would impose a ten per cent salary cut for non-frontline workers in the public sector across the board tomorrow.
That would go some way to balancing up the huge disparity in outcomes that this barbaric maoist lockdown is creating. Its morally utterly reprehensible and cannot last.
Because setting end dates like this has clearly worked wonders in the past.
It would be mad to set dates for lockdown to ease. But I guess what they could do, to engender some optimism, is set out some metrics that they are going to use to measure when lockdowns could be eased.
For example, we will start easing measures once a) positive tests are less than 5,000 per day, and b) average daily deaths are under 100. It's too early to use vaccination data as part of these metrics.
There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.
There's going to be a very delicate situation now, where, leaving aside the organisers and 5 token fines of £200, some 395 other people attending a wedding party appear to have been let off scot free.
So for all Patel's fine words, in practice we can see that they're making no difference and flouting of the rules is still being allowed to happen. Even if it were 10 people getting off scot free I'd be pissed off, let alone 400 in a North London superspreader event.
Depends how many cops there were. The organisers are identifiabvle easily, and the cops presumably grab as many as they can - - but how many can they do without a major inquiry?
Presumably there would be a guest list?
They might have been invited - but what's the proof they were there? It'd be a massive inquiry into things like videos and photographs.
I don't have a strong opinion on whether the police should go after everyone, but I'd have thought a crime with plenty of photo and video evidence isn't exactly one where the burden of proof is the main problem. You could also in theory apply for phone location data using the guest list as your probable cause (or whatever the UK equivalent is).
Well the vaccine minster has said categorically it isn't true.... everybody is getting less next week due to supply issues. The media reports were based on they were told a reduction was coming and then wrote a story it is because our region has done so well. Unless the minster is lying on record, they have put 2 and 2 together and got 5.
This lockdown is based on an enormous mountain of misery. It is imposed by those whose paychecks, pensions and lifstyles are not affected. Indeed, some are enhanced.
Enhanced at enormous cost to others.
If Rishi Sunak had any guts whatsoever he would impose a ten per cent salary cut for non-frontline workers in the public sector across the board tomorrow.
That would go some way to balancing up the huge disparity in outcomes that this barbaric maoist lockdown is creating. Its morally utterly reprehensible and cannot last.
Other than completely collapsing demand, I don't see what that would achieve. The answer is successfully vaccinating the population and not looking back and telling the scientists to get fucked if they try and talk about lockdowns ever again.
Because setting end dates like this has clearly worked wonders in the past.
To be fair, the tweeter isn't asking for dates, she is asking for "metrics" by which I assume she means infection rates, hospitalisation rates and so on.
There are indeed practical difficulties with doing that, as it's all more complex than a single number. But I do understand the emotion - it does make this sort of thing more difficult to not have a sense that there's a measurable target, and that something positive will happen when we reach it. On balance, I do think more should be done to explain what the circumstances look like where there can be relaxation in a way that people can understand, simply because it's having a considerable psychological impact on people which that may go some way to easing.
This lockdown is based on an enormous mountain of misery. It is imposed by those whose paychecks, pensions and lifstyles are not affected. Indeed, some are enhanced.
Enhanced at enormous cost to others.
If Rishi Sunak had any guts whatsoever he would impose a ten per cent salary cut for non-frontline workers in the public sector across the board tomorrow.
That would go some way to balancing up the huge disparity in outcomes that this barbaric maoist lockdown is creating. Its morally utterly reprehensible and cannot last.
So we vaccinate people, end lockdown, pubs and clubs and restaurants etc can open - only to find they have no customers because half their potential customers salary has been literally decimated?
This lockdown is based on an enormous mountain of misery. It is imposed by those whose paychecks, pensions and lifstyles are not affected. Indeed, some are enhanced.
Enhanced at enormous cost to others.
If Rishi Sunak had any guts whatsoever he would impose a ten per cent salary cut for non-frontline workers in the public sector across the board tomorrow.
That would go some way to balancing up the huge disparity in outcomes that this barbaric maoist lockdown is creating. Its morally utterly reprehensible and cannot last.
Why only the public sector? Everyone still in well paid work and largely unable to actually spend their earnings can make a bigger contribution.
500 quid to self isolate. This government is officially nuts. Talk about perverse incentives.
Lots of countries have payments to self-isolate, and as far as I'm aware they tend to have fewer infections and deaths than we do. Perhaps people aren't that quick to take advantage as you think?
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
Well the vaccine minster has said categorically it isn't true.... everybody is getting less next week due to supply issues. The media reports were based on they were told a reduction was coming and then wrote a story it is because our region has done so well. Unless the minster is lying on record, they have put 2 and 2 together and got 5.
Media writing negative stories without checking the facts first? What a surprise!
And now it has become fact....like the 26 trillion the government spent on moonshot testing, when it turned out to be tenders for the whole NHS diagnostic systems for the next 10 years (all because an idiot at the FT did a pdf search for COVID and the tender documents contained that word as in the context covid has shown the NHS needs to look to the future and upgrade across thw whole system) and all the crap stories.
This lockdown is based on an enormous mountain of misery. It is imposed by those whose paychecks, pensions and lifstyles are not affected. Indeed, some are enhanced.
Enhanced at enormous cost to others.
If Rishi Sunak had any guts whatsoever he would impose a ten per cent salary cut for non-frontline workers in the public sector across the board tomorrow.
That would go some way to balancing up the huge disparity in outcomes that this barbaric maoist lockdown is creating. Its morally utterly reprehensible and cannot last.
Why only the public sector? Everyone still in well paid work and largely unable to actually spend their earnings can make a bigger contribution.
Exactly, start cutting people's salaries and they won't spend all the money they've saved over the last year. It's completely stupid.
Normally in this sort of situation I think delaying is part of an attempt to make a thing go away.
Delay long enough and then switch to an argument that it should be forgotten because it was so long ago.
I think that if McConnell wanted to convict the twice-impeached previous incumbent then he would be eager to do so soon, rather than to draw out the agony.
This lockdown is based on an enormous mountain of misery. It is imposed by those whose paychecks, pensions and lifstyles are not affected. Indeed, some are enhanced.
Enhanced at enormous cost to others.
If Rishi Sunak had any guts whatsoever he would impose a ten per cent salary cut for non-frontline workers in the public sector across the board tomorrow.
That would go some way to balancing up the huge disparity in outcomes that this barbaric maoist lockdown is creating. Its morally utterly reprehensible and cannot last.
Other than completely collapsing demand, I don't see what that would achieve. The answer is successfully vaccinating the population and not looking back and telling the scientists to get fucked if they try and talk about lockdowns ever again.
Yep. This death toll of ours is going to look absolutely shocking at the end of this both in absolute and relative terms. It will be interesting to see what the political price is and who pays it.
This lockdown is based on an enormous mountain of misery. It is imposed by those whose paychecks, pensions and lifstyles are not affected. Indeed, some are enhanced.
Enhanced at enormous cost to others.
If Rishi Sunak had any guts whatsoever he would impose a ten per cent salary cut for non-frontline workers in the public sector across the board tomorrow.
That would go some way to balancing up the huge disparity in outcomes that this barbaric maoist lockdown is creating. Its morally utterly reprehensible and cannot last.
Why only the public sector? Everyone still in well paid work and largely unable to actually spend their earnings can make a bigger contribution.
Fair enough point taken, and I agree.
The burden must be shed much more equally, in any case.
I'm inclined to think this is a newspaper editor desperately after a story, just like 90% of the others. "Omigod it's working well ! What we gonna do for the front page?"
And we have that denial from Zahawi.
Has the YP editor supplied any evidence to lift it above a conspiracy theory?
There's a far greater variation between the 4 nations than the English regions, and I don't think that matters very much either.
The priority is to keep on trucking with the rollout.
The man I was talking about last night, he was 37.
Condolences to you.
Son is having a really bad time of it. The idea that the young don't suffer if they get it is for the birds. And we don't yet know what long-term damage they get.
Just saw the updates re your family - best wishes to you all.
I'd always thought they were pushing on the 'marginal' electoral areas, so the Tory MP could emphasise what he or she had done, and leaving the safer Tory areas. Like this.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
What happens to recoverable tax on income at higher tax rates used to charitable donations? Does 40% tax get recovered at 40% etc, or is it capped at base rate?
Like a lot of others my income is going very lumpy, with a chunk being pushed into 21-22 some of which may be at a higher rate therefore.
Wondering about donating some of that to a local community centre charity for the after-Covid recovery project. Do they get extra benefit if I wait until the next FY?
I'd think it would be in the long term advantage of the Dems if he's not impeached. He'll be one of those gifts that keeps on giving wreaking havoc on the GOP for the next four years.
Dems might want him to keep causing trouble, Republicans might be afraid of confronting their base and hoping he just goes away combines to equal low chance of conviction.
Hopefully they can both rise above those thoughts.
More importantly however, I think Barack Obama wins this contest, though I'd give the prize to George W. Bush for having Casino Royale on his watch, like Iraq, we can pretend Die Another Day never happened.
Tricky Dick wins that competition, Bill in second place by virtue of GoldenEye.
Reagan, for me.
Normally we agree on Bond films, but I have to challenge you here.
Lyndon Johnson is the winner I would say – all three of his films are top drawer.
Casino Royale is the best Bond film of all, but sadly Dubya is let down by Die Another Day and Quantum of Solace – two of the very worst pictures in the series.
Well the vaccine minster has said categorically it isn't true.... everybody is getting less next week due to supply issues. The media reports were based on they were told a reduction was coming and then wrote a story it is because our region has done so well. Unless the minster is lying on record, they have put 2 and 2 together and got 5.
I'd always thought they were pushing on the 'marginal' electoral areas, so the Tory MP could emphasise what he or she had done, and leaving the safer Tory areas. Like this.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
On topic I agree with the markets on this and really don't see the upside for Biden in having the Senate focus on the trial of Trump rather than the nominations of his cabinet or any legislation he wants to bring forward in the first 100 days. I also remain concerned that guilty parties who supported all of Trump's nonsense to the very end bar 1 day somehow get a pass because they vote for impeachment which means very little.
Biden should leave this to the criminal courts and the bankruptcy courts. They will sort out Trump soon enough.
It's the principle of the thing though. I'd share your concern about those who backed him all the way getting a pass, but what he did was just plain wrong, in a major way, and it would be better than he is convicted than not, even though for Biden it would be an unnecessary headache.
The process exists for just this kind of situation, if they never use it because during a term things are too partisan and after a term ends they don't want the hassle, the next Trump to come along will know they can do anything they want.
Because setting end dates like this has clearly worked wonders in the past.
It would be mad to set dates for lockdown to ease. But I guess what they could do, to engender some optimism, is set out some metrics that they are going to use to measure when lockdowns could be eased.
For example, we will start easing measures once a) positive tests are less than 5,000 per day, and b) average daily deaths are under 100. It's too early to use vaccination data as part of these metrics.
They must be thinking about those sort of "release triggers" but I don't think we'll see them in the public domain. And tbh, I'm not too fussed about seeing them. I am 100% sure this government will ease restrictions as soon as they feel they can. It's paranoia to think they want to keep society shut down. For me, the risk is the other way - that they ease up too soon. That's been the story thus far and I really hope they've learnt the lesson. Let's err on the cautious side this time and make sure this is the LAST lockdown.
What happens to recoverable tax on income at higher tax rates used to charitable donations? Does 40% tax get recovered at 40% etc, or is it capped at base rate?
Like a lot of others my income is going very lumpy, with a chunk being pushed into 21-22 some of which may be at a higher rate therefore.
Wondering about donating some of that to a local community centre charity for the after-Covid recovery project. Do they get extra benefit if I wait until the next FY?
If you are paying tax at 40% the charity only gets the basic rate of 20%. You can reclaim the additional 20% in your tax return (until you are giving so much that your effective tax level falls under the 40% limit).
However, it is possible to make gifts of assets direct to the charity and claim all the value of that to subtract from your income. The charity doesn't need to claim any tax back but you do. NB: there is a formal procedure whereby you can sell it on behalf of the charity and send them the net proceeds, but they have to formally ask you, and you need to keep the paperwork of course. The charity will know what it can and can't do.
Edit: there may be CGT issues with the latter. But CGT is also relieved in such circs I believe. (Wasn't an issue for me as I had just received the shares in question in a bequest.)
The first part of getting out of lockdown isn't any of the fun stuff, it's schools reopening fully and so forth. Schools have an obviously big impact on the infection rate so that's probably about the limit till we're further down the road with vaccinations and fewer cases.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
Haven't you figured out that everything George Osborne said was wrong so you can throw away your 2010 election notes? Austerity was not the answer then, and we can agree it is not the answer now.
What happens to recoverable tax on income at higher tax rates used to charitable donations? Does 40% tax get recovered at 40% etc, or is it capped at base rate?
Like a lot of others my income is going very lumpy, with a chunk being pushed into 21-22 some of which may be at a higher rate therefore.
Wondering about donating some of that to a local community centre charity for the after-Covid recovery project. Do they get extra benefit if I wait until the next FY?
If you are paying tax at 40% the charity only gets the basic rate of 20%. You can reclaim the additional 20% in your tax return (until you are giving so much that your effective tax level falls under the 40% limit).
However, it is possible to make gifts of assets direct to the charity and claim all the value of that to subtract from your income. The charity doesn't need to claim any tax back but you do. NB: there is a formal procedure whereby you can sell it on behalf of the charity and send them the net proceeds, but they have to formally ask you, and you need to keep the paperwork of course. The charity will know what it can and can't do.
Wow. That's detailed advice.
I have a question about VAT registration if I may.
If I make most of my income from employment (PAYE) does this count against the VAT registration limit on the freelance work I do on the side?
i.e. do I have to register for VAT if my total income (including my salary) exceeds £85k pa or only if my freelance commissions (excluding my salary) do?
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy
I'm a fairly easy-going sort of person, not one taken to getting stressed or worked up about things. However, even I am starting to struggle with the incredible monotony of things and need something to look forward to.
Also, I think I have the opposite issue to lots of other people in lockdown. In normal times I would have a couple of days per week working from home when I would be on my own. It was my quiet time where I could get on with things quietly and without interruption. In a house with my wife, 2 school age kids and a toddler this is now impossible. My mental health is coming under challenge from not ever having quiet time on my own.
People need to have something to cling onto and look forward to. I think is needs to be phrased as an "aspiration" if we follow the rules and vaccinations continue to go well.
Interesting question - thanks to OGH for raising it.
My suspicion is that McConnell is going to dangle the prospect of Republican votes to convict in exchange for a lengthy trial with the real objective of delaying and ultimately preventing the Democrats from achieving their policy agenda.
Other related objectives could be, holding back as long as possible to see what arises from the investigation and to judge party mood now that Trump is gone, and encouraging the Dems to be bipartisan on other stuff not wanting to upset the Reps before the end of the trial.
I would suspect that he will use the trial to try and get the Democrats not to remove the filibuster stuff and start voting everything through.
Yes, he's made various comments that make his potential cooperation seem contingent on his back being scratched, procedurally. I'd believe he is happy to convict, but not so happy he'll do it without getting something major in return.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Try and give a timeline and "saving Christmas" is lambasted. Don't give a firm one and they get lambasted.
There's a formal review set for the middle of February - and talk of potentially the Spring. What more should be said right here, right now pre-empting the February review?
Because setting end dates like this has clearly worked wonders in the past.
It would be mad to set dates for lockdown to ease. But I guess what they could do, to engender some optimism, is set out some metrics that they are going to use to measure when lockdowns could be eased.
For example, we will start easing measures once a) positive tests are less than 5,000 per day, and b) average daily deaths are under 100. It's too early to use vaccination data as part of these metrics.
It needs to be something like cases are falling by x% a week and we have y% spare capacity in the hospitalisation numbers in case the measure(s) we're dropping are enough to get cases rising again.
"Problematizing or considering who has a right to sensory-based pleasure and/or fixation and the relationship between racist, ableist, gender-violent, fatphobic, ageist, homophobic, and transphobic discourses which over- and/or underdetermine the sensate body;"
Literally rammed every -ist word into one horrible sentence.
I think that is a decent illustration of the problem we discussed yesterday on 'wokeism'.
Firstly, taking pre-emptive offence on behalf of other people is very patrinising.
Secondly, any number of single issue groups or campaigns start with serious points, and end up degenerating into irrationality or nonsense because they only see one thing.
Applies here.
Also applies to groups who start with perhaps proper concerns about "cultural appropriation", and end up banning Mexican Sombreros from a Mexican Restaurant freshers' fair because it is "racist".
What happens to recoverable tax on income at higher tax rates used to charitable donations? Does 40% tax get recovered at 40% etc, or is it capped at base rate?
Like a lot of others my income is going very lumpy, with a chunk being pushed into 21-22 some of which may be at a higher rate therefore.
Wondering about donating some of that to a local community centre charity for the after-Covid recovery project. Do they get extra benefit if I wait until the next FY?
If you are paying tax at 40% the charity only gets the basic rate of 20%. You can reclaim the additional 20% in your tax return (until you are giving so much that your effective tax level falls under the 40% limit).
However, it is possible to make gifts of assets direct to the charity and claim all the value of that to subtract from your income. The charity doesn't need to claim any tax back but you do. NB: there is a formal procedure whereby you can sell it on behalf of the charity and send them the net proceeds, but they have to formally ask you, and you need to keep the paperwork of course. The charity will know what it can and can't do.
Wow. That's detailed advice.
I have a question about VAT registration if I may.
If I make most of my income from employment (PAYE) does this count against the VAT registration limit on the freelance work I do on the side?
i.e. do I have to register for VAT if my total income (including my salary) exceeds £85k pa or only if my freelance commissions (excluding my salary) do?
Not my area, sorry - I only know about the charity stuff from having to deal with my own tax and a relative's and giving some inherited shares to a couple of charities. I only really mentioned the asset donation possibility in case it fitted in better with MattW's plans.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
We can never get into a debt trap like that while interest rates are so low. The Bank of England will simply print enough cash to buy up the extra government debt. Eventually the markets may conceivably panic, but the experience of Japan shows that we have a long way to go before we need to get worried.
That is one of the massive benefits - perhaps the biggest - we have because we stayed out of the euro. And to think some morons still want us to join it.
Well the vaccine minster has said categorically it isn't true.... everybody is getting less next week due to supply issues. The media reports were based on they were told a reduction was coming and then wrote a story it is because our region has done so well. Unless the minster is lying on record, they have put 2 and 2 together and got 5.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy
I'm a fairly easy-going sort of person, not one taken to getting stressed or worked up about things. However, even I am starting to struggle with the incredible monotony of things and need something to look forward to.
Also, I think I have the opposite issue to lots of other people in lockdown. In normal times I would have a couple of days per week working from home when I would be on my own. It was my quiet time where I could get on with things quietly and without interruption. In a house with my wife, 2 school age kids and a toddler this is now impossible. My mental health is coming under challenge from not ever having quiet time on my own.
People need to have something to cling onto and look forward to. I think is needs to be phrased as an "aspiration" if we follow the rules and vaccinations continue to go well.
Aspiration is the word of choice for 'we'd like to do X, but we know it is not going to happen but need to appear optimistic' so not sure it is the perfect option.
It's interesting you point out the flip side of the lockdown and homeworking negatives, as you're right, I'd tend to think of it purely in terms of loneliness and isolation. But those with families do need their own space, it's true.
Hopefully it doesn't end up like that Red Dwarf episode where Lister, Kryten and the Cat had to quarantine together.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
Haven't you figured out that everything George Osborne said was wrong so you can throw away your 2010 election notes? Austerity was not the answer then, and we can agree it is not the answer now.
2010 was not now. 2010 was over a year after the recession ended. If the recession ends in the Spring then next year or the year after will be time to take stock of the situation and fix what needs fixing.
But 10% deficits, going long-term when you're not in a recession anymore, are not viable or sustainable and lead to exponential growth. That's why you try not to go into recessions having maxed out the deficit already.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Well they shouldn't "get blasted" for it, that's ridiculous.
What they do deserve to "get blasted" for is incarcerating the public in their own homes without giving them an idea of when they will be released.
What happens to recoverable tax on income at higher tax rates used to charitable donations? Does 40% tax get recovered at 40% etc, or is it capped at base rate?
Like a lot of others my income is going very lumpy, with a chunk being pushed into 21-22 some of which may be at a higher rate therefore.
Wondering about donating some of that to a local community centre charity for the after-Covid recovery project. Do they get extra benefit if I wait until the next FY?
If you are paying tax at 40% the charity only gets the basic rate of 20%. You can reclaim the additional 20% in your tax return (until you are giving so much that your effective tax level falls under the 40% limit).
However, it is possible to make gifts of assets direct to the charity and claim all the value of that to subtract from your income. The charity doesn't need to claim any tax back but you do. NB: there is a formal procedure whereby you can sell it on behalf of the charity and send them the net proceeds, but they have to formally ask you, and you need to keep the paperwork of course. The charity will know what it can and can't do.
Wow. That's detailed advice.
I have a question about VAT registration if I may.
If I make most of my income from employment (PAYE) does this count against the VAT registration limit on the freelance work I do on the side?
i.e. do I have to register for VAT if my total income (including my salary) exceeds £85k pa or only if my freelance commissions (excluding my salary) do?
Not my area, sorry - I only know about the charity stuff from having to deal with my own tax and a relative's and giving some inherited shares to a couple of charities. I only really mentioned the asset donation possibility in case it fitted in better with MattW's plans.
No worries, thanks anyway for the reply. I'm asking for free tax advice after all! ;-)
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
We can never get into a debt trap like that while interest rates are so low. The Bank of England will simply print enough cash to buy up the extra government debt. Eventually the markets may conceivably panic, but the experience of Japan shows that we have a long way to go before we need to get worried.
That is one of the massive benefits - perhaps the biggest - we have because we stayed out of the euro. And to think some morons still want us to join it.
Indeed and thankfully interest rates and inflation are both lower than they were a decade ago which makes it more viable to do more now. We're very fortunate to have gone into a crisis like this with negligible deficit, below target inflation and lowest interest rates in decades.
After this a bit of inflation will probably be expected. A bit of inflation is healthy, its unhealthy not to have any inflation that's why there's a minimum target which we've actually been beneath quite frequently in recent years.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Well they shouldn't "get blasted" for it, that's ridiculous.
What they do deserve to "get blasted" for is incarcerating the public in their own homes without giving them an idea of when they will be released.
Well they get blasted for both, so while I'd like to see one too I'm not able to get outraged if they decide to only get blasted for one.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Try and give a timeline and "saving Christmas" is lambasted. Don't give a firm one and they get lambasted.
There's a formal review set for the middle of February - and talk of potentially the Spring. What more should be said right here, right now pre-empting the February review?
What happens to recoverable tax on income at higher tax rates used to charitable donations? Does 40% tax get recovered at 40% etc, or is it capped at base rate?
Like a lot of others my income is going very lumpy, with a chunk being pushed into 21-22 some of which may be at a higher rate therefore.
Wondering about donating some of that to a local community centre charity for the after-Covid recovery project. Do they get extra benefit if I wait until the next FY?
If you are paying tax at 40% the charity only gets the basic rate of 20%. You can reclaim the additional 20% in your tax return (until you are giving so much that your effective tax level falls under the 40% limit).
However, it is possible to make gifts of assets direct to the charity and claim all the value of that to subtract from your income. The charity doesn't need to claim any tax back but you do. NB: there is a formal procedure whereby you can sell it on behalf of the charity and send them the net proceeds, but they have to formally ask you, and you need to keep the paperwork of course. The charity will know what it can and can't do.
Edit: there may be CGT issues with the latter. But CGT is also relieved in such circs I believe. (Wasn't an issue for me as I had just received the shares in question in a bequest.)
Thanks for that.
I have been coming to deals to help struggling tenants through - combination of rent freeze, part write-off and part delayed payments as most LLs are doing to help Ts cope with Covid effects. Unfortunately this shifts my tax profile between years.
I've also got a probate for a parent's estate happening in the middle of it all, so it is very difficult to predict where I will be.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Well they shouldn't "get blasted" for it, that's ridiculous.
What they do deserve to "get blasted" for is incarcerating the public in their own homes without giving them an idea of when they will be released.
They've given an idea. By the Spring with a formal review in the middle of February.
What more specific information do you want pre-empting the review in the middle of February?
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Well they shouldn't "get blasted" for it, that's ridiculous.
What they do deserve to "get blasted" for is incarcerating the public in their own homes without giving them an idea of when they will be released.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
We're in worse shape now. If you don't believe me call up Sunak and offer him the swap. He'll bite your hand off.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
I am looking forwards to the second, or is it third, round of questions along the lines of "its OK for me to X, its OK for me to do Y, but I can't go elephant water skiing on a Thursday with me mam. Its so CONFEWSIN"
Beth Rigby, I'm looking at you, you complete and utter dullard.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
Haven't you figured out that everything George Osborne said was wrong so you can throw away your 2010 election notes? Austerity was not the answer then, and we can agree it is not the answer now.
2010 was not now. 2010 was over a year after the recession ended. If the recession ends in the Spring then next year or the year after will be time to take stock of the situation and fix what needs fixing.
But 10% deficits, going long-term when you're not in a recession anymore, are not viable or sustainable and lead to exponential growth. That's why you try not to go into recessions having maxed out the deficit already.
If the deficit was, as you say, maxed out, then it cannot be bigger now. But it is so it wasn't. Nor do we have a national credit card. Nor do we have hyper-inflation. Nor is there a bond market strike.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Well they shouldn't "get blasted" for it, that's ridiculous.
What they do deserve to "get blasted" for is incarcerating the public in their own homes without giving them an idea of when they will be released.
Bravo!
This is where I agree with you – I've often said that you make interesting points from a philosophical perspective on this matter.
It's your conspiracy theories and love of Trump that lets you down!!
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
We can never get into a debt trap like that while interest rates are so low. The Bank of England will simply print enough cash to buy up the extra government debt. Eventually the markets may conceivably panic, but the experience of Japan shows that we have a long way to go before we need to get worried.
That is one of the massive benefits - perhaps the biggest - we have because we stayed out of the euro. And to think some morons still want us to join it.
Indeed and thankfully interest rates and inflation are both lower than they were a decade ago which makes it more viable to do more now. We're very fortunate to have gone into a crisis like this with negligible deficit, below target inflation and lowest interest rates in decades.
No, it doesn't matter. Japan went into this crisis with a huge structural deficit, and borrows at lower interest rates than we do throughout. Trump was blowing up America's deficit before this crisis, and America has also borrowed at low interest rates throughout.
Austerity, at least to the extent that Osborne and Cameron implemented it, was a huge mistake.
She is spot on. I think it's reasonable to expect a road map from government. I'm amazed at how sanguine many seem to be with the open-ended policy.
They are sanguine because, as pointed out, whenever there is tentative signs of a roadmap the government gets blasted for it. God forbid they mention relaxing by Easter again.
Well they shouldn't "get blasted" for it, that's ridiculous.
What they do deserve to "get blasted" for is incarcerating the public in their own homes without giving them an idea of when they will be released.
They've given an idea. By the Spring with a formal review in the middle of February.
What more specific information do you want pre-empting the review in the middle of February?
I must admit I wasn't aware of a Valentine's Day review. That is better news. Okay.
Comments
Al the best Cyclefree. hope he's well soon.
Its clear that lockdown is going on well, well after that. Ministers briefing today that schools will not even open AFTER easter.
And now Sunak is proposing tax rises. Into an economy that is still in lockdown and has had the worst hammering for three hundred years. Its a bold strategy Cotton....
https://www.synchronicity.hosted.york.ac.uk/history-of-art-phd-conference-2021-call-for-papers/
which doesn't mention the controversy, but has a - presumably - new poster image. It's student conference, organised - I think - by a student body.
Harvey Dent as the economy post-Covid. Sunak as the Joker.
"Problematizing or considering who has a right to sensory-based pleasure and/or fixation and the relationship between racist, ableist, gender-violent, fatphobic, ageist, homophobic, and transphobic discourses which over- and/or underdetermine the sensate body;"
Literally rammed every -ist word into one horrible sentence.
Inflation destroys the quality of life and standard of living of ordinary people.
No tory administration is going to survive that.
Vaccine cuts definitely happening in the real world
Mass disparity so Govt adopts policy of slowing down the best areas to let least successful to catch up.
Am sure the PB Tories will be along shortly to defend.
https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/revealed-huge-local-variation-in-covid-vaccination-rates/7029355.article
They might at least save something if it ever ends, and have some money to preserve the livelihoods, living standards and health outcomes of those under 80s who do survive.
Unlike us, FFS.
https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1352380088176803842?s=19
The government for the past 2 weeks have consistently said supply remains a huge issue of this whole process.
Enhanced at enormous cost to others.
If Rishi Sunak had any guts whatsoever he would impose a ten per cent salary cut for non-frontline workers in the public sector across the board tomorrow.
That would go some way to balancing up the huge disparity in outcomes that this barbaric maoist lockdown is creating. Its morally utterly reprehensible and cannot last.
For example, we will start easing measures once a) positive tests are less than 5,000 per day, and b) average daily deaths are under 100. It's too early to use vaccination data as part of these metrics.
There are indeed practical difficulties with doing that, as it's all more complex than a single number. But I do understand the emotion - it does make this sort of thing more difficult to not have a sense that there's a measurable target, and that something positive will happen when we reach it. On balance, I do think more should be done to explain what the circumstances look like where there can be relaxation in a way that people can understand, simply because it's having a considerable psychological impact on people which that may go some way to easing.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/22/travel-news-covid-restrictions-border-rules-uk-tests-holiday/
Who does that help?
Delay long enough and then switch to an argument that it should be forgotten because it was so long ago.
I think that if McConnell wanted to convict the twice-impeached previous incumbent then he would be eager to do so soon, rather than to draw out the agony.
As an adviser.
https://twitter.com/WilliamsRacing/status/1352587344575156225
The burden must be shed much more equally, in any case.
And we have that denial from Zahawi.
Has the YP editor supplied any evidence to lift it above a conspiracy theory?
There's a far greater variation between the 4 nations than the English regions, and I don't think that matters very much either.
The priority is to keep on trucking with the rollout.
What happens to recoverable tax on income at higher tax rates used to charitable donations? Does 40% tax get recovered at 40% etc, or is it capped at base rate?
Like a lot of others my income is going very lumpy, with a chunk being pushed into 21-22 some of which may be at a higher rate therefore.
Wondering about donating some of that to a local community centre charity for the after-Covid recovery project. Do they get extra benefit if I wait until the next FY?
Hopefully they can both rise above those thoughts.
Lyndon Johnson is the winner I would say – all three of his films are top drawer.
Casino Royale is the best Bond film of all, but sadly Dubya is let down by Die Another Day and Quantum of Solace – two of the very worst pictures in the series.
https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1352380088176803842?s=19
is a pretty flat denial of the story.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
The process exists for just this kind of situation, if they never use it because during a term things are too partisan and after a term ends they don't want the hassle, the next Trump to come along will know they can do anything they want.
However, it is possible to make gifts of assets direct to the charity and claim all the value of that to subtract from your income. The charity doesn't need to claim any tax back but you do. NB: there is a formal procedure whereby you can sell it on behalf of the charity and send them the net proceeds, but they have to formally ask you, and you need to keep the paperwork of course. The charity will know what it can and can't do.
Edit: there may be CGT issues with the latter. But CGT is also relieved in such circs I believe. (Wasn't an issue for me as I had just received the shares in question in a bequest.)
I have a question about VAT registration if I may.
If I make most of my income from employment (PAYE) does this count against the VAT registration limit on the freelance work I do on the side?
i.e. do I have to register for VAT if my total income (including my salary) exceeds £85k pa or only if my freelance commissions (excluding my salary) do?
Also, I think I have the opposite issue to lots of other people in lockdown. In normal times I would have a couple of days per week working from home when I would be on my own. It was my quiet time where I could get on with things quietly and without interruption. In a house with my wife, 2 school age kids and a toddler this is now impossible. My mental health is coming under challenge from not ever having quiet time on my own.
People need to have something to cling onto and look forward to. I think is needs to be phrased as an "aspiration" if we follow the rules and vaccinations continue to go well.
There's a formal review set for the middle of February - and talk of potentially the Spring. What more should be said right here, right now pre-empting the February review?
Firstly, taking pre-emptive offence on behalf of other people is very patrinising.
Secondly, any number of single issue groups or campaigns start with serious points, and end up degenerating into irrationality or nonsense because they only see one thing.
Applies here.
Also applies to groups who start with perhaps proper concerns about "cultural appropriation", and end up banning Mexican Sombreros from a Mexican Restaurant freshers' fair because it is "racist".
Skepticism is needed to keep wokeists awake.
That is one of the massive benefits - perhaps the biggest - we have because we stayed out of the euro. And to think some morons still want us to join it.
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/coronavirus/vaccines-rationed-yorkshire-health-secretary-says-lumpy-supply-means-deliveries-must-be-diverted-worse-performing-regions-3108045
FWIW - I think it does make sense to divert supply to stick with the prioritization.
It's interesting you point out the flip side of the lockdown and homeworking negatives, as you're right, I'd tend to think of it purely in terms of loneliness and isolation. But those with families do need their own space, it's true.
Hopefully it doesn't end up like that Red Dwarf episode where Lister, Kryten and the Cat had to quarantine together.
But 10% deficits, going long-term when you're not in a recession anymore, are not viable or sustainable and lead to exponential growth. That's why you try not to go into recessions having maxed out the deficit already.
What they do deserve to "get blasted" for is incarcerating the public in their own homes without giving them an idea of when they will be released.
After this a bit of inflation will probably be expected. A bit of inflation is healthy, its unhealthy not to have any inflation that's why there's a minimum target which we've actually been beneath quite frequently in recent years.
I have been coming to deals to help struggling tenants through - combination of rent freeze, part write-off and part delayed payments as most LLs are doing to help Ts cope with Covid effects. Unfortunately this shifts my tax profile between years.
I've also got a probate for a parent's estate happening in the middle of it all, so it is very difficult to predict where I will be.
What more specific information do you want pre-empting the review in the middle of February?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55579480
Beth Rigby, I'm looking at you, you complete and utter dullard.
It's your conspiracy theories and love of Trump that lets you down!!
Austerity, at least to the extent that Osborne and Cameron implemented it, was a huge mistake.