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On Betfair the odds on Trump being convicted drop below 20% – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited January 2021 in General
imageOn Betfair the odds on Trump being convicted drop below 20% – politicalbetting.com

Several developments on the Trump impeachment move which has already been backed by the House. This of course is the biggest current political betting market where the move has been further to Trump not being convicted by the necessary two thirds majority of Senators present when it comes to the vote.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,236
    edited January 2021
    First?

    Tempted to repost the Channel 4 First Date clip, because it turns out to be a gloriously "London" ("I don't drink tap water") aid to my Red Wall Tory MP.

    But perhaps not.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    DavidL said:

    Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.

    FPT

    We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.

    Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,750

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.

    FPT

    We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.

    Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
    Partly repeating FPT, the modelling may just be on the protection afforded to the 15m (70% efficacy x 15/70 of the population is ~15%). Protection to others is unproven, as discussed, but likely. Even in that case, most of the 15m are probably not the major spreaders, mostly not going to work etc, so if there is a preventative effect on spreading infection you'll get more effect - on infection rates, not deaths - per person vaccinated in the younger groups.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,461
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.

    FPT

    We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.

    Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
    Partly repeating FPT, the modelling may just be on the protection afforded to the 15m (70% efficacy x 15/70 of the population is ~15%). Protection to others is unproven, as discussed, but likely. Even in that case, most of the 15m are probably not the major spreaders, mostly not going to work etc, so if there is a preventative effect on spreading infection you'll get more effect - on infection rates, not deaths - per person vaccinated in the younger groups.
    Haven't they left themselves a reservoir among the Palestinians, though? AIUI, anyway.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited January 2021
    Roger said:

    I'd think it would be in the long term advantage of the Dems if he's not impeached. He'll be one of those gifts that keeps on giving wreaking havoc on the GOP for the next four years.

    I agree with that which is why to my mind McConnell is working so hard. You can see clips of what happened being made into effective ads
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.

    FPT

    We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.

    Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
    Yes Israel should give us real data against which the model can be checked shortly. As others have pointed out the model is incomplete because it assumes that vaccination stops whilst it will in fact accelerate but it is still disappointing, hopefully on the conservative side.
  • BBC News - Covid: 400-person wedding party in Stamford Hill broken up by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    On topic I agree with the markets on this and really don't see the upside for Biden in having the Senate focus on the trial of Trump rather than the nominations of his cabinet or any legislation he wants to bring forward in the first 100 days. I also remain concerned that guilty parties who supported all of Trump's nonsense to the very end bar 1 day somehow get a pass because they vote for impeachment which means very little.

    Biden should leave this to the criminal courts and the bankruptcy courts. They will sort out Trump soon enough.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,750

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.

    FPT

    We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.

    Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
    Partly repeating FPT, the modelling may just be on the protection afforded to the 15m (70% efficacy x 15/70 of the population is ~15%). Protection to others is unproven, as discussed, but likely. Even in that case, most of the 15m are probably not the major spreaders, mostly not going to work etc, so if there is a preventative effect on spreading infection you'll get more effect - on infection rates, not deaths - per person vaccinated in the younger groups.
    Haven't they left themselves a reservoir among the Palestinians, though? AIUI, anyway.
    I was talking about here, rather than Israel.

    Don't know the details there, but if so then that's a problem, probably, leaving aside the ethics. Wonder how that works, who has responsibility for vaccination in Palestinian areas? Will Palestinians take an Israeli provided vaccination? Are Israel offering? Do the Palestinian authority have money and infrastructure to deliver it themselves?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Are England ever going to take another wicket by the way? This is getting as bad as waiting for a Liverpool goal.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.

    FPT

    We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.

    Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
    More FPT.

    The overall case numbers don't tell you much, because as you say they're affected by restrictions as well as the vaccines.

    Vaccinated vs unvaccinated case numbers are more interesting, although even there changes in behaviour after being vaccinated can affect the numbers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    From a viewpoint of stupendous ignorance, I'd have said that convict should be about evens. 5.1 on betfair looks cracking value to me.

    £24 available at that price, mind, so this is not another wall of insane Trumpite millions up for grabs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    BBC News - Covid: 400-person wedding party in Stamford Hill broken up by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673

    Police should really be getting encouraged to break up events like this with their batons, pepper and teargas. We are being unacceptably tolerant of such stupidity and arrogance.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Once the rioters start making their way through the courts there will be much more evidence for Trump's trial.

    Can McConnell still drive the schedule as minority leader?
  • Covid vaccine minister Nadhim Zahawi denies jabs have been diverted from the North

    Yorkshire's allocation this week is 13 per cent,' he tweeted. 'Next week it is 13 per cent.

    'We have less vaccine because supply remains a challenge.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9175447/Covid-vaccine-minister-Nadhim-Zahawi-denies-jabs-diverted-North.html

    That's no good news if supply is being restricted by the amount reported everywhere next week. No way we see 500k+/day
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752

    Roger said:

    I'd think it would be in the long term advantage of the Dems if he's not impeached. He'll be one of those gifts that keeps on giving wreaking havoc on the GOP for the next four years.

    I agree with that which is why to my mind McConnell is working so hard. You can see clips of what happened being made into effective ads
    McConnell is 78 years old. Does he really need to worry about a Trumpist threat to his career? He's not up for re-election until 2026. I think he will do whatever he perceives to be in the longer-term interests of his party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    I linked to that yesterday
    *polishes nails*

    In fairness it was on a thread that @Scott_xP had linked to so hat tip to him.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Interesting question - thanks to OGH for raising it.

    My suspicion is that McConnell is going to dangle the prospect of Republican votes to convict in exchange for a lengthy trial with the real objective of delaying and ultimately preventing the Democrats from achieving their policy agenda.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204

    Covid vaccine minister Nadhim Zahawi denies jabs have been diverted from the North

    Yorkshire's allocation this week is 13 per cent,' he tweeted. 'Next week it is 13 per cent.

    'We have less vaccine because supply remains a challenge.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9175447/Covid-vaccine-minister-Nadhim-Zahawi-denies-jabs-diverted-North.html

    That's no good news if supply is being restricted by the amount reported everywhere next week. No way we see 500k+/day

    At least Zahawi is being honest about where the bottleneck is. We need to hear it straight.
  • DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket by the way? This is getting as bad as waiting for a Liverpool goal.

    Its where England miss Archer and Stokes so much when they don't play at home or Australia, WI, etc. England have never found a replacement for Swann and so on the Indian Subcontinent they really struggle once the batsman get in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,356
    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
    One sensible thing has been using role models who are in the priority age group - rather than "jumping the queue" as in some countries.

    Plenty of over-80 national treasures like Ian McKellen & David Attenborough.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited January 2021
    The likelihood that McConnell is playing a clever game, tempting only to disappoint, is high IMO

    What could change things is some dramatic revelation about links between the riot and senior politicians, coming out of the FBI investigation
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    rkrkrk said:

    Interesting question - thanks to OGH for raising it.

    My suspicion is that McConnell is going to dangle the prospect of Republican votes to convict in exchange for a lengthy trial with the real objective of delaying and ultimately preventing the Democrats from achieving their policy agenda.

    Yes, from a purely partisan point of view, McC’s prime objective is slowing down Biden’s appointment confirmations and first hundred days’ legislation.

    Obviously, the sooner the likes of the hyper-partisan McConnell (and Pelosi on the other side) retires, the better for America.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    edited January 2021
    DavidL said:

    BBC News - Covid: 400-person wedding party in Stamford Hill broken up by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673

    Police should really be getting encouraged to break up events like this with their batons, pepper and teargas. We are being unacceptably tolerant of such stupidity and arrogance.
    The Hasidic community hasn't exactly covered themselves in glory this pandemic.
  • More importantly however, I think Barack Obama wins this contest, though I'd give the prize to George W. Bush for having Casino Royale on his watch, like Iraq, we can pretend Die Another Day never happened.

    https://twitter.com/btharris93/status/1352559242872553472
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
    One sensible thing has been using role models who are in the priority age group - rather than "jumping the queue" as in some countries.

    Plenty of over-80 national treasures like Ian McKellen & David Attenborough.
    Gandalf needs protection from Covid? The wizard who defeated the Balrog in Moria? Surely some mistake.
  • A half dozen people so far have contacted me and asked me am I this person being quoted in the FT.

    https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1352554618904051713
  • the apotheosis of Trump amirite as a punchline.

    hopefully comedy will recover in due course.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    The man I was talking about last night, he was 37.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket by the way? This is getting as bad as waiting for a Liverpool goal.

    Its where England miss Archer and Stokes so much when they don't play at home or Australia, WI, etc. England have never found a replacement for Swann and so on the Indian Subcontinent they really struggle once the batsman get in.
    When you watched how India batted at the Gabba and then think about what they are going to do to Bess and Leitch, well it's not the most cheerful thought.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited January 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
    One sensible thing has been using role models who are in the priority age group - rather than "jumping the queue" as in some countries.

    Plenty of over-80 national treasures like Ian McKellen & David Attenborough.
    Oh, very much so.

    As I’ve said before, there’s almost nothing more likely to spark civil unrest in the next few months, than people being seen to use influence or wealth to jump the queue while severe restrictions remain in place.

    There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    rkrkrk said:

    Interesting question - thanks to OGH for raising it.

    My suspicion is that McConnell is going to dangle the prospect of Republican votes to convict in exchange for a lengthy trial with the real objective of delaying and ultimately preventing the Democrats from achieving their policy agenda.

    Other related objectives could be, holding back as long as possible to see what arises from the investigation and to judge party mood now that Trump is gone, and encouraging the Dems to be bipartisan on other stuff not wanting to upset the Reps before the end of the trial.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Pulpstar said:

    The man I was talking about last night, he was 37.

    That’s not good at all. Condolences to his family, and a reminder to the rest of us that’s it’s not just the elderly and infirm succumbing to this virus.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    More importantly however, I think Barack Obama wins this contest, though I'd give the prize to George W. Bush for having Casino Royale on his watch, like Iraq, we can pretend Die Another Day never happened.

    https://twitter.com/btharris93/status/1352559242872553472

    Tricky Dick wins that competition, Bill in second place by virtue of GoldenEye.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,236
    edited January 2021
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.

    FPT

    We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.

    Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
    Partly repeating FPT, the modelling may just be on the protection afforded to the 15m (70% efficacy x 15/70 of the population is ~15%). Protection to others is unproven, as discussed, but likely. Even in that case, most of the 15m are probably not the major spreaders, mostly not going to work etc, so if there is a preventative effect on spreading infection you'll get more effect - on infection rates, not deaths - per person vaccinated in the younger groups.
    Haven't they left themselves a reservoir among the Palestinians, though? AIUI, anyway.
    I was talking about here, rather than Israel.

    Don't know the details there, but if so then that's a problem, probably, leaving aside the ethics. Wonder how that works, who has responsibility for vaccination in Palestinian areas? Will Palestinians take an Israeli provided vaccination? Are Israel offering? Do the Palestinian authority have money and infrastructure to deliver it themselves?
    I think that turns on what you mean by "Palestinian areas".

    At the risk of entering a shark-infested custard, AIUI Israel will obvs do all of Israel, which includes Palestinian citizens, and annexed Jerusalem. Palestinian Authority will do West Bank, who have responsibility for healthcare aiui. Gaza would be done by the Hamas 'Government', similarly. Israel covering settlements.

    The last I heard the Palestinian Authority was in COVAX, and they have a deal with AZ, and others.

    I have seen various stories on some outlets about "Israel excludes Palestinians" from where they would be expected eg Electronic Intifada, but I am not aware that PA and HG have asked to be "included".

    Things may have moved since.
  • FFS....

    Environment Secretary George Eustice has also been on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, where he was asked about whether the government is considering introducing “quarantine hotels”, where arrivals to the UK would be asked to self-isolate.

    He told the programme: “We have considered these matters last week and the judgement was, that for now, the right thing to do is to require pre-travel testing."
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Are England ever going to take another wicket by the way? This is getting as bad as waiting for a Liverpool goal.

    Its where England miss Archer and Stokes so much when they don't play at home or Australia, WI, etc. England have never found a replacement for Swann and so on the Indian Subcontinent they really struggle once the batsman get in.
    When you watched how India batted at the Gabba and then think about what they are going to do to Bess and Leitch, well it's not the most cheerful thought.
    Even more cheerful news, our second best player of spin is going to miss the first two tests.

    It's going to 1993 all over again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,356
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
    One sensible thing has been using role models who are in the priority age group - rather than "jumping the queue" as in some countries.

    Plenty of over-80 national treasures like Ian McKellen & David Attenborough.
    Gandalf needs protection from Covid? The wizard who defeated the Balrog in Moria? Surely some mistake.
    "Fly, you fools" was actually an injunction about social distancing from a super spreader.
  • MaxPB said:

    More importantly however, I think Barack Obama wins this contest, though I'd give the prize to George W. Bush for having Casino Royale on his watch, like Iraq, we can pretend Die Another Day never happened.

    https://twitter.com/btharris93/status/1352559242872553472

    Tricky Dick wins that competition, Bill in second place by virtue of GoldenEye.
    Bill Clinton: Hey Monica, do you want to see my Goldeneye?

    I need to get my mind out of the gutter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    A half dozen people so far have contacted me and asked me am I this person being quoted in the FT.

    https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1352554618904051713

    https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1352543552400740352
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    PB Brains Trust - chatting to a friend in Indonesia who has been offered the Chinese Sinovac vaccine - mid forties, no co-morbidities, a doctor so on the priority list (they're doing working age population first) but he was worried about potential side effects (and "it's Chinese", the casual racism of Asia would make BNP members blush) - my advice was to take it, given the alternative of getting COVID is a much worse option - any thoughts?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,356
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Interesting question - thanks to OGH for raising it.

    My suspicion is that McConnell is going to dangle the prospect of Republican votes to convict in exchange for a lengthy trial with the real objective of delaying and ultimately preventing the Democrats from achieving their policy agenda.

    Other related objectives could be, holding back as long as possible to see what arises from the investigation and to judge party mood now that Trump is gone, and encouraging the Dems to be bipartisan on other stuff not wanting to upset the Reps before the end of the trial.
    I would suspect that he will use the trial to try and get the Democrats not to remove the filibuster stuff and start voting everything through.
  • https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1352425932989083648

    I mean, how is anyone meant to top this?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited January 2021

    PB Brains Trust - chatting to a friend in Indonesia who has been offered the Chinese Sinovac vaccine - mid forties, no co-morbidities, a doctor so on the priority list (they're doing working age population first) but he was worried about potential side effects (and "it's Chinese", the casual racism of Asia would make BNP members blush) - my advice was to take it, given the alternative of getting COVID is a much worse option - any thoughts?

    Here in UAE we have the Sinopharm vaccine available generally, or Pfizer currently only to over 60s and vulnerable.

    Long queues for both, and while I’d probably prefer the Pfizer I’ll be in the Chinese queue if it means being done a few months earlier.

    IMO at this stage any vaccine is better than no vaccine (although Sinovac has the lowest efficacy of all approved vaccines to date).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,587
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
    One sensible thing has been using role models who are in the priority age group - rather than "jumping the queue" as in some countries.

    Plenty of over-80 national treasures like Ian McKellen & David Attenborough.
    Oh, very much so.

    As I’ve said before, there’s almost nothing more likely to spark civil unrest in the next few months, than people being seen to use influence or wealth to jump the queue while severe restrictions remain in place.

    There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.
    I think the opposite is true. Some areas are apparently not as busy as they could be and should therefore invite younger people to have a jab if slots are available.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,750
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.

    FPT

    We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.

    Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
    Partly repeating FPT, the modelling may just be on the protection afforded to the 15m (70% efficacy x 15/70 of the population is ~15%). Protection to others is unproven, as discussed, but likely. Even in that case, most of the 15m are probably not the major spreaders, mostly not going to work etc, so if there is a preventative effect on spreading infection you'll get more effect - on infection rates, not deaths - per person vaccinated in the younger groups.
    Haven't they left themselves a reservoir among the Palestinians, though? AIUI, anyway.
    I was talking about here, rather than Israel.

    Don't know the details there, but if so then that's a problem, probably, leaving aside the ethics. Wonder how that works, who has responsibility for vaccination in Palestinian areas? Will Palestinians take an Israeli provided vaccination? Are Israel offering? Do the Palestinian authority have money and infrastructure to deliver it themselves?
    I think that turns on what you mean by "Palestinian areas".

    At the risk of entering a shark-infested custard, AIUI Israel will obvs do all of Israel, which includes Palestinian citizens, and annexed Jerusalem. Palestinian Authority will do West Bank, who have responsibility for healthcare aiui. Gaza would be done by the Hamas 'Government', similarly. Israel covering settlements.

    The last I heard the Palestinian Authority was in COVAX, and they have a deal with AZ, and others.

    I have seen various stories on some outlets about "Israel excludes Palestinians" from where they would be expected eg Electronic Intifada, but I am not aware that PA and HG have asked to be "included".

    Things may have moved since.
    Thank you, makes sense. Big question mark, I guess, is Gaza. Maybe done through NGOs?

    It was fear of the shark infested custard (plus fear of exposing my own woeful lack of knowledge on the shark infested custard) that led me to use 'Palestinian areas' :wink:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,664
    edited January 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
    One sensible thing has been using role models who are in the priority age group - rather than "jumping the queue" as in some countries.

    Plenty of over-80 national treasures like Ian McKellen & David Attenborough.
    Oh, very much so.

    As I’ve said before, there’s almost nothing more likely to spark civil unrest in the next few months, than people being seen to use influence or wealth to jump the queue while severe restrictions remain in place.

    There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.
    I think the opposite is true. Some areas are apparently not as busy as they could be and should therefore invite younger people to have a jab if slots are available.
    The behavioural scientists say we need to vaccinate the younger people last because they will treat the vaccine as making them invulnerable, which will push up R and infections, and all other resultant things.

    If they are vaccinated last, won't be an issue.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
    One sensible thing has been using role models who are in the priority age group - rather than "jumping the queue" as in some countries.

    Plenty of over-80 national treasures like Ian McKellen & David Attenborough.
    Oh, very much so.

    As I’ve said before, there’s almost nothing more likely to spark civil unrest in the next few months, than people being seen to use influence or wealth to jump the queue while severe restrictions remain in place.

    There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.
    I think the opposite is true. Some areas are apparently not as busy as they could be and should therefore invite younger people to have a jab if slots are available.
    Definitely invite younger people to voluntarily queue up outside the centres for a couple of hours, to see if there’s anything left at the end of the day that would other wise be thrown out. That’s not really queue-jumping though.
  • Interesting video.

    The "perfect" little economy of New Zealand

    https://youtu.be/TlhUMFOBZHU
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    PB Brains Trust - chatting to a friend in Indonesia who has been offered the Chinese Sinovac vaccine - mid forties, no co-morbidities, a doctor so on the priority list (they're doing working age population first) but he was worried about potential side effects (and "it's Chinese", the casual racism of Asia would make BNP members blush) - my advice was to take it, given the alternative of getting COVID is a much worse option - any thoughts?

    Sinovac is the least good Chinese one but if it's the only one available I'd go for it, ultimately it's better than nothing and showed no significant side effects during the trials.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,314
    Well, husband now has the pox. 😥

    Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.

    Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.

    Not for long, I hope.

    US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.

    Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    500 quid to self isolate. This government is officially nuts. Talk about perverse incentives.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,314
    Pulpstar said:

    The man I was talking about last night, he was 37.

    Condolences to you.

    Son is having a really bad time of it. The idea that the young don't suffer if they get it is for the birds. And we don't yet know what long-term damage they get.
  • Jonathan said:

    500 quid to self isolate. This government is officially nuts. Talk about perverse incentives.

    Haven't Labour pushed for such a scheme as part of their calls for better support?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,204
    Disappointing to see the Trump conviction price drift. Far as I'm concerned the (sedition) glove fits so they cannot acquit. But maybe not if the market vibe is right. I'm on at 4 but it's 5.5 now. Grrr. It could be that I've made a wrong call here. Had to happen eventually, I guess.
  • Jonathan said:

    500 quid to self isolate. This government is officially nuts. Talk about perverse incentives.

    £50 a day for 10 days. It's not lottery money.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1352425932989083648

    I mean, how is anyone meant to top this?

    I think that my wife would have killed me. Which would probably created the wrong emotional impact.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,356
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, husband now has the pox. 😥

    Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.

    Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.

    Not for long, I hope.

    US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.

    Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.

    Best wishes...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, husband now has the pox. 😥

    Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.

    Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.

    Not for long, I hope.

    US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.

    Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.

    All the best @Cyclefree. Enormous sympathies.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,876
    DavidL said:

    BBC News - Covid: 400-person wedding party in Stamford Hill broken up by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673

    Police should really be getting encouraged to break up events like this with their batons, pepper and teargas. We are being unacceptably tolerant of such stupidity and arrogance.
    With those numbers, not a bad chance of someone with the pox being present.
  • kinabalu said:

    Disappointing to see the Trump conviction price drift. Far as I'm concerned the (sedition) glove fits so they cannot acquit. But maybe not if the market vibe is right. I'm on at 4 but it's 5.5 now. Grrr. It could be that I've made a wrong call here. Had to happen eventually, I guess.

    I'm sceptical myself and have not completely given up the idea that President Biden will pardon Trump to get this out of the way rather than let the GOP use it to jam up the Senate but I'd not worry about the market drift unless Mitch McConnell has opened an account.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,204
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, husband now has the pox. 😥

    Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.

    Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.

    Not for long, I hope.

    US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.

    Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.

    That must be a big worry. Fingers crossed that he gets through it ok.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Jonathan said:

    500 quid to self isolate. This government is officially nuts. Talk about perverse incentives.

    £50 a day for 10 days. It's not lottery money.
    That’s the sort of amount that can make a huge difference to someone in casual or self-employed work - where a single host can often infect dozens of others.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
    My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,204

    kinabalu said:

    Disappointing to see the Trump conviction price drift. Far as I'm concerned the (sedition) glove fits so they cannot acquit. But maybe not if the market vibe is right. I'm on at 4 but it's 5.5 now. Grrr. It could be that I've made a wrong call here. Had to happen eventually, I guess.

    I'm sceptical myself and have not completely given up the idea that President Biden will pardon Trump to get this out of the way rather than let the GOP use it to jam up the Senate but I'd not worry about the market drift unless Mitch McConnell has opened an account.
    No, I'm still hopeful. Not going to top up on the drift though.
  • Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    500 quid to self isolate. This government is officially nuts. Talk about perverse incentives.

    £50 a day for 10 days. It's not lottery money.
    That’s the sort of amount that can make a huge difference to someone in casual or self-employed work - where a single host can often infect dozens of others.
    It is about right, I'd have thought. I doubt it will lead to swinging the lead but is enough to take the edge off hardship.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Pulpstar said:

    The man I was talking about last night, he was 37.

    Mate, I am so sorry to hear about this. My sympathies with you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC News - Covid: 400-person wedding party in Stamford Hill broken up by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673

    Police should really be getting encouraged to break up events like this with their batons, pepper and teargas. We are being unacceptably tolerant of such stupidity and arrogance.
    With those numbers, not a bad chance of someone with the pox being present.
    The current infection rate in London is 865 per 100k. If my maths is right statistically 3-4 people infected would have been present in 400 people. Just utter madness.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    FFS....

    Environment Secretary George Eustice has also been on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, where he was asked about whether the government is considering introducing “quarantine hotels”, where arrivals to the UK would be asked to self-isolate.

    He told the programme: “We have considered these matters last week and the judgement was, that for now, the right thing to do is to require pre-travel testing."

    Look on the bright side - there'll be the inevitable U-turn....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,876
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC News - Covid: 400-person wedding party in Stamford Hill broken up by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673

    Police should really be getting encouraged to break up events like this with their batons, pepper and teargas. We are being unacceptably tolerant of such stupidity and arrogance.
    With those numbers, not a bad chance of someone with the pox being present.
    The current infection rate in London is 865 per 100k. If my maths is right statistically 3-4 people infected would have been present in 400 people. Just utter madness.
    Have to allow for some feeling rotten and staying at home, but with idiots who would still go anyway, the asymptomatics and the asymptomatic period ... that's still fair odds.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,922
    edited January 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    Quite impressed by the Birmingham imam who mosque is being used as a vaccination centre on TV yesterday. Made it very clear that he could see no reason why anyone should not be vaccinated.
    Good on him. Need to use any and every role model we can find, to assist with convincing people of the merits of vaccination.
    One sensible thing has been using role models who are in the priority age group - rather than "jumping the queue" as in some countries.

    Plenty of over-80 national treasures like Ian McKellen & David Attenborough.
    Trevor Phillips on SpectatorTV (on Youtube) yesterday was sceptical about role models and suggested it would be better to address directly the reasons for vax-scepticism.

    (And has anyone seen the actual question used to measure reluctance to accept a hypothetical vaccine? I could not find it on Yougov's site. Does uptake match the polls?)
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905
    I see three monkeys. These York academics see three Afro Americans, Who is being racist?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, husband now has the pox. 😥

    Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.

    Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.

    Not for long, I hope.

    US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.

    Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.

    Commiserations - this new variant seems to go right through households despite the precautions people take. Before we'd had people self isolating successfully in a household - now we're seeing cases spread to the whole household.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    BBC News - Covid: 400-person wedding party in Stamford Hill broken up by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673

    Police should really be getting encouraged to break up events like this with their batons, pepper and teargas. We are being unacceptably tolerant of such stupidity and arrogance.
    With those numbers, not a bad chance of someone with the pox being present.

    A near certainty I'd have thought!
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, husband now has the pox. 😥

    Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.

    Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.

    Not for long, I hope.

    US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.

    Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.

    Similar story here. My sister has infected 3 members of her household including hubby who has heart issues.

    Meanwhile, the my sister's asymptomatic colleague (revealed by lateral flow test) has infected at least 10 more of my sister's colleagues, which has to be at least partially attributable to the school's lack of policy on mask wearing.
  • ClippP said:

    I see three monkeys. These York academics see three Afro Americans, Who is being racist?
    Americans in York? But yes, there is an element of these academics confirming what they wish to deny.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55757930

    Sunderland! Sunderland!

    Meanwhile the EU's vaccination stats....

    Its getting embarrassing now now Scott. Every single plank of your argument has collapsed utterly.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,750
    Actually a PhD student conference organised - I think - by the students. Would appear to be students, rather than academics, being woke. Students will woke, what can you do?

    Yep, I'm verbing 'woke' there, in the new sense of the word, rather than the original in which it is of course a verb. Bite me :wink:

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,356

    ClippP said:

    I see three monkeys. These York academics see three Afro Americans, Who is being racist?
    Americans in York? But yes, there is an element of these academics confirming what they wish to deny.
    I would bet money that none of them thought to lookup the origin of the three monkeys, what they are supposed the symbolise and why.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,996
    edited January 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Mixed global news on vaccine acceptance:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1352549339579736064?s=20

    What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
    My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
    And the English varieties are also now very competitive.
    Sparkling?
    Not so much.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Angelo Matthews must absolutely love batting against England. 100 up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,587
    Selebian said:

    Actually a PhD student conference organised - I think - by the students. Would appear to be students, rather than academics, being woke. Students will woke, what can you do?

    Yep, I'm verbing 'woke' there, in the new sense of the word, rather than the original in which it is of course a verb. Bite me :wink:

    What's next? Banning white people from eating bananas in public perhaps.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Sandpit said:



    There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.

    There's going to be a very delicate situation now, where, leaving aside the organisers and 5 token fines of £200, some 395 other people attending a wedding party appear to have been let off scot free.

    So for all Patel's fine words, in practice we can see that they're making no difference and flouting of the rules is still being allowed to happen. Even if it were 10 people getting off scot free I'd be pissed off, let alone 400 in a North London superspreader event.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,876

    ClippP said:

    I see three monkeys. These York academics see three Afro Americans, Who is being racist?
    Americans in York? But yes, there is an element of these academics confirming what they wish to deny.
    I would bet money that none of them thought to lookup the origin of the three monkeys, what they are supposed the symbolise and why.
    Can't read it - paywall. But is it not that the York organisers are receiving complaints rather than being the source of the complaints?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,876

    Sandpit said:



    There’s actually going to be a very delicate situation by about April, where a couple of incidents could cause serious behavioural issues among the population.

    There's going to be a very delicate situation now, where, leaving aside the organisers and 5 token fines of £200, some 395 other people attending a wedding party appear to have been let off scot free.

    So for all Patel's fine words, in practice we can see that they're making no difference and flouting of the rules is still being allowed to happen. Even if it were 10 people getting off scot free I'd be pissed off, let alone 400 in a North London superspreader event.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673

    Depends how many cops there were. The organisers are identifiabvle easily, and the cops presumably grab as many as they can - - but how many can they do without a major inquiry?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,804
    Mr. Urquhart, people fixated with seeing the world as evil are akin to visitors to the Emerald City, slapping on green goggles and being amazed how green everything is.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.

    and that was before lock down.

    Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited January 2021
    Government sources are firmly downplaying the idea of a universal £500 payment for people required to self-isolate.

    One senior source says the idea was drawn up by officials but never made it near the prime minister.

    It is understood there are fears in government that such a payment system could create perverse incentives.

    BBC News - Covid-19: Government sources downplay £500 self-isolation payment idea
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55760467
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,356
    Carnyx said:

    ClippP said:

    I see three monkeys. These York academics see three Afro Americans, Who is being racist?
    Americans in York? But yes, there is an element of these academics confirming what they wish to deny.
    I would bet money that none of them thought to lookup the origin of the three monkeys, what they are supposed the symbolise and why.
    Can't read it - paywall. But is it not that the York organisers are receiving complaints rather than being the source of the complaints?
    I was referring to everyone involved.

    My first instinct on finding out that someone was offended by something, would be to do some research on thing in question.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, husband now has the pox. 😥

    Blast and damn. 59 and carrying a few extra pounds.

    Locally, the doctors are already vaccinating people in priority group 4 (having done everyone in the higher risk categories already) and the GP just told me that they would be moving to priority groups 5 & 6 (where I am) next week if they had more vaccine. But they have been told that there will be a delay in getting more.

    Not for long, I hope.

    US politics seems somehow irrelevant right now.

    Fuck it. I'm off for a walk.

    Commiserations - this new variant seems to go right through households despite the precautions people take. Before we'd had people self isolating successfully in a household - now we're seeing cases spread to the whole household.
    It might be worth thinking about offering state-paid hotel quarantine, for those who want it - although the incubation period may mean the damage is done in many cases.

    (This is different to arrivals into the country, who need to be put into hotel quarantine at their own expense).
This discussion has been closed.