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On Betfair the odds on Trump being convicted drop below 20% – politicalbetting.com

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  • The Brian Rose booster just did their day's work and drove the lay price down from 17 to 11 if anyone isn't already loaded up.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
    I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.

    And yes, I am a rinker.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,540

    It is a bit rich when a poster that writes little else other than tedious nationalistic crap accuses someone else of having a nationalistic speck of dust in their eye. Nationalism is the creed of the hypocrite and the bonehead.
    Your definition of nationalism seems to include any opinion on the constitution other than the status quo.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    kle4 said:

    I think that's a pretty silly way of determining accountability. The public don't vote on most positions, and he is not a decision maker, are you seriously suggesting no one is accountable unless they are subject to a democratic vote at some point? That's insane.

    He will be held to account in the way appropriate for his position. And even if that is found to be insufficient, even if he is unaccountable in some way, the idea he is unaccountable because we the public cannot vote to remove him is one of the barmiest things I've read for a long time. Is my postman unaccountable because I cannot vote him out if he does a bad job? Is my doctor unaccountable because they face consequences other than being voted out if he messes up?

    Given how you've defined accountability for him, voting people out seems the only way you accept it.
    I was writing something similar...

    Whitty has a government position and will be ditched if he's not seen to be performing well. That's accountability.

    Calling scientists unaccountable is pretty bizarre. It's one of the professions in which everything you do is out in the open for anyone to criticise - papers, peer review, post-publication dissection, letters etc etc. And to keep your job, you have to frequently persuade funding bodies that not only is your current proposal worthy of their hard-earned cash, but also defend your track record of delivery. That's all as it should be, of course, but it's certainly accountability.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
    If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.

    Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,889
    TOPPING said:

    I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.

    And yes, I am a rinker.
    I think it all comes down to personal taste. And I am quite sure that I haven't tasted all the whiskies in the world. Yet.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    edited January 2021
    TOPPING said:

    I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.

    And yes, I am a rinker.
    Watch out for them Libdems..

    Edit: Liberals, I should say!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,559

    The Brian Rose booster just did their day's work and drove the lay price down from 17 to 11 if anyone isn't already loaded up.

    Just who is wasting their money?
  • 1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route.
    2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.

    Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
    Must say I feel sorry for the four-tenths of a person. Poor thing!

    The up side is that the unfortunate fraction can be carried down to the beach (in a picnic basket?) to enjoy the sea air . . .
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The key pinch point is hospitalisations. Once the over 45's are done, the hospitals will empty. If we carry on at the rate we are, that should be around Easter. Combine the effect of the lockdown (checks data - yep still working), with gradually increasing immunity among younger cohorts (e.g. NHS staff, care home staff), with the better weather (hat tip to last year) and yes by April things will be looking better.
    Note, I am not suggesting that at Easter life will be back to normal. Far from it, but restrictions will be coming off.

    Lastly - I understand your pessimism, and I don't know your medical history, but maybe talk to someone about the depression? This is a grim time for us all - if there is help available, ask for it.
    I was going to write a longer response, but let's just say that (i) I probably am depressed, (ii) there's really nothing useful to be done about it other than getting rid of the sodding Plague, and therefore (iii) you can probably understand why I proceed from the assumption that this will not happen for a very, very long time, if ever.

    Too much has gone wrong already and too much is still left that can and almost certainly will go wrong. There's nothing at all unrealistic about imagining that everything will first be held up by delays and cock-ups in the vaccination program, then by hyper-caution from the scientific advisers, and finally by some new form of vaccine-resistant SuperCovid setting the clock all the way back to zero again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427

    1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route.
    2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.

    Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
    Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey.
    So she's stuck in PEH.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited January 2021
    TOPPING said:

    I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.

    And yes, I am a rinker.
    You're not always a rinker. Some good posts today on the public finances.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,889
    Carnyx said:

    If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.

    Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
    The whole blended thing is interesting. With wine, the whole single patch of grapes thing is quite recent. And to an extent, was an invention of the growers to get power away from the wholesalers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    rcs1000 said:

    Now, it may be worth going "the whole hog" and cutting it to zero (although even Australia hasn't quite managed that)
    The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:

    https://twitter.com/Govgg/status/1352617013986750465?s=20

    The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,540
    Scott_xP said:
    So that's what Boris meant by 'oven ready'.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    TOPPING said:

    There will be a skeleton. One time, one Thursday morning when the "scientists" said do X and the govt said actually taking into account a, b, and c we'll do Y. And the following week/month a spike happened and the govt will be shit-scared of throwing anything at them when this is all done because the scientists will point to that Thursday morning and say "Look. This is a government you can't trust".
    In a better society (hell, maybe even in this one) this will all be studied in detail and the many errors dissected to decide how to do it better next time. The science/scientists will have been wrong in places and the politicians will have been wrong in others. In many of those instances the decisions will have been reasonable on the evidence available at that time, particularly towards the start of the pandemic; in others, they will not.

    The scientific side will be studied in detail. There will be modelling of different approaches, the what-ifs of locking down sooner, closing borders, comparisons between countries that did different things. But we'll also need study of the politics/science interaction - did the politicians ask the right questions/did the scientists point out when they were asking the wrong ones? Was there the right mix of scientists involved? Do we need new cross-discipline science looking at pandemic mitigation, which draws in epidemiology, economics and behavioural science? Next time, we could do better and we should as we'll know more, but that doesn't necessarily mean someone failed this time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey.
    So she's stuck in PEH.
    They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    The whole blended thing is interesting. With wine, the whole single patch of grapes thing is quite recent. And to an extent, was an invention of the growers to get power away from the wholesalers.
    I suppose. But blended is a mixture of two rather different things - grain spirit and assorted malts to add flavour. So it's not even equivalent to those cheap wines which are blended from different sources, never mind a single terroir.

    Actually, there is some decent blended whisky - Grouse is a very good standby esp for visitors who like their whisky with lemonade etc. - but I'm old enough and with enough disposable income to satisfy my occasional wish for a single malt. The specialist whisky shops in Edinbrugh certainly don't turn up their noses at overseas malts in my experience, either.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    kinabalu said:

    You're not always a rinker. Some good posts today on the public finances.
    Thanks. As you are only too keenly aware it's not at all easy to make even one good post most days.
  • Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9175451/Government-intervene-STOP-City-London-toppling-Cass-Beckford-statues.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427

    They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here.
    Good; I spoke with her Tuesday afternoon so that's quite a time ago. That's not her only problem, of course.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    I think it all comes down to personal taste. And I am quite sure that I haven't tasted all the whiskies in the world. Yet.
    In January 2001 I visited a hotel bar in Stockholm which prided itself on its collection of whiskies. It had over 20 different types and I tried every one in a single sitting. There were some quite special labels. Wish I could remember the names.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,162

    Hurrah, but who could have predicted lockdowns work?

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1352611533679898627

    Is it too early for this to be partly a result of the vaccination programme?
  • Carnyx said:

    If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.

    Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
    IF we are going to go all jingo re: booze, then know that I've got a bottle of 100% made-in-USA Everclear. At 190 proof THE most powerful AND versatile spirit ever distilled!

    Equally usefully for stripping paint, powering your lawnmower AND blowing the top of your head clean off. USA! USA!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,159
    edited January 2021
    BBC....

    The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.

    There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.

    Still f##king doing it....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    IF we are going to go all jingo re: booze, then know that I've got a bottle of 100% made-in-USA Everclear. At 190 proof THE most powerful AND versatile spirit ever distilled!

    Equally usefully for stripping paint, powering your lawnmower AND blowing the top of your head clean off. USA! USA!
    That must be 95% abv? Very useful indeed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey.
    So she's stuck in PEH.
    They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here. - Edit - AZN has been on Alderney for a week:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-guernsey-55622729

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it too early for this to be partly a result of the vaccination programme?
    Yes.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    BBC....

    The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.

    There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.

    Still f##king doing it....

    Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,624
    Jet2 operating a "Yorkshire Airways" holiday flight right now: LBA to LBA!

    https://www.flightradar24.com/EXS066B/26a39492
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,159
    edited January 2021
    Gaussian said:

    Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
    Not only are they making a false comparison on date of announcement, we know there are day of the week variations...specimen date is what matters...
  • The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:

    https://twitter.com/Govgg/status/1352617013986750465?s=20

    The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
    Sounds similar to the contrasting experience of American Samoa & Western Samoa during the Spanish Influenza Pandemic.

    Former was spared, later was not, thanks to difference between lockdown versus let-er-rip.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    TOPPING said:

    Snot the point.

    If the pandemic is a life-threatening crisis, why isn't homelessness. Surely you aren't going to begrudge spending a fraction of the cost of the pandemic on preventing people dying on the streets. Or from being poor. Or from having to shop at a privately-owned Tescos.
    One can make that argument (and some doubtless will), but ultimately most people have a sense of perspective. As bad as it is for the people suffering from it, homelessness doesn't turn the world upside down, switch off the economy, and trap countless millions in place. Nor does a capitalist Tesco; nor even does living below the poverty line. Climate change (which kinabalu mentioned) is also not even close to comparable - it affects some people badly in some places, but to most it's completely imperceptible.

    You're both probably right that the economic status quo will prevail, since that's what it usually does. But if there were ever a case for dispensing with orthodoxy, this is it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited January 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it too early for this to be partly a result of the vaccination programme?
    It probably is, especially since a large proportion of those vaccinated will have been the elderly who don't get out much (or at all), and therefore don't tend to be those spreading the infection. There might be a small effect from the vaccination of healthcare workers but I wouldn't expect it to be enough to show up in the R figure.

    The figure where we should soon start seeing some improvement is hospitalisations for the over-80s, and soon after that deaths in the same age group. Need at least a couple more weeks, though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,159
    edited January 2021
    The media narrative has moved on, but incredible the amount of testing / testing capacity now. Doing over 600k tests a day with a capacity of over 800k.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    7 day averages for cases & admissions still edging down - deaths still dire:


  • Five-time finalist Andy Murray will miss the Australian Open after a solution to find a "workable quarantine" following his positive test for coronavirus could not be found.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    BBC....

    The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.

    There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.

    Still f##king doing it....

    We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Selebian said:

    I was writing something similar...

    Whitty has a government position and will be ditched if he's not seen to be performing well. That's accountability.

    Calling scientists unaccountable is pretty bizarre. It's one of the professions in which everything you do is out in the open for anyone to criticise - papers, peer review, post-publication dissection, letters etc etc. And to keep your job, you have to frequently persuade funding bodies that not only is your current proposal worthy of their hard-earned cash, but also defend your track record of delivery. That's all as it should be, of course, but it's certainly accountability.
    And, increasingly, that defended track record includes - literally - public engagement - media releases, science festivals etc.
  • It probably is, especially since a large proportion of those vaccinated will have been the elderly who don't get out much (or at all), and therefore don't tend to be those spreading the infection. There might be a small effect from the vaccination of healthcare workers but I wouldn't expect it to be enough to show up in the R figure.

    The figure where we should soon start seeing some improvement is hospitalisations for the over-80s, and soon after that deaths in the same age group. Need at least a couple more weeks, though.
    I'm hopeful that the vaccination of NHS and care staff will knock about 0.1 - 0.2 off R entirely by itself.

    Which may not sound much but every little helps.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    kle4 said:

    Which is just paranoid conspiracist ramblings assuming the governments wants restrictions even when not needed and that the public will be content with that, as the latter is why the government is able to be so harsh.

    Someone will want restrictions forever. Government has no incentive to do that.
    Except that we are in a rather perverse political situation in which take away liberties = good; restore liberties = bad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,159
    edited January 2021

    7 day averages for cases & admissions still edging down - deaths still dire:


    Its going to be many more days yet to come of horrific death numbers.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Jet2 operating a "Yorkshire Airways" holiday flight right now: LBA to LBA!

    https://www.flightradar24.com/EXS066B/26a39492

    Saw this post right as it flew overhead. Quite rare to hear a jet coming into land at LBA these days!
  • kinabalu said:

    In January 2001 I visited a hotel bar in Stockholm which prided itself on its collection of whiskies. It had over 20 different types and I tried every one in a single sitting. There were some quite special labels. Wish I could remember the names.
    I recommend the "Pot Still" in Glasgow. it is like a library of whisky.
  • The media narrative has moved on, but incredible the amount of testing / testing capacity now. Doing over 600k tests a day with a capacity of over 800k.

    I know some people in critical roles are getting daily tests every day now instead of weekly tests.

    Unpleasant test to have to do every day.
  • I'm hopeful that the vaccination of NHS and care staff will knock about 0.1 - 0.2 off R entirely by itself.

    Which may not sound much but every little helps.
    Very hard to detect, though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    One can make that argument (and some doubtless will), but ultimately most people have a sense of perspective. As bad as it is for the people suffering from it, homelessness doesn't turn the world upside down, switch off the economy, and trap countless millions in place. Nor does a capitalist Tesco; nor even does living below the poverty line. Climate change (which kinabalu mentioned) is also not even close to comparable - it affects some people badly in some places, but to most it's completely imperceptible.

    You're both probably right that the economic status quo will prevail, since that's what it usually does. But if there were ever a case for dispensing with orthodoxy, this is it.
    People will be keen to plead "special case" for this and they would of course be right.

    But equally I can see a lot of mileage from a competent LotO (big ask) in saying "You rightly spent XXXbn on the pandemic to save YYY lives. All we are suggesting is to spend a AAAth of that to save BBB lives."
  • The South West now has the highest Covid-19 coronavirus daily growth rate in the country, according to the latest estimates from SAGE - the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
    It isn't a competition, but in case you've missed it the "British virus" as the world is calling it is horrific.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,167
    Scott_xP said:
    The 'f*ck business' programme proceeding at pace I see.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Is it too early for this to be partly a result of the vaccination programme?
    Yes. It is the unwind of the Xmas "spike".
  • Very hard to detect, though.
    100% agreed. May never be detected.

    But if it does it will make a major difference.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    The 'f*ck business' programme proceeding at pace I see.
    Indeed. The thread also considers UK to rEU trade, as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,159
    edited January 2021
    Unfortunate headline...

    Bath couple spend last £20 on KFC treat and get 'rock hard' (newline so gets cut off on feed)
    ...clicks link...
    burger
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834
    Not good news, though not yet conclusive:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1352634648199749633?s=19
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,427

    They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here. - Edit - AZN has been on Alderney for a week:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-guernsey-55622729

    Thanks. PEH told she could only have Pfizer in PEH. I'll check.

    I'm quite sure she won't put up with any nonsense and nor will her daughters; especially the one who is in most frequent contact.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,834

    7 day averages for cases & admissions still edging down - deaths still dire:


    1401 bad for a Friday, I think.
  • Foxy said:

    Not good news, though not yet conclusive:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1352634648199749633?s=19

    Lots of if, buts and maybes...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,749

    Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9175451/Government-intervene-STOP-City-London-toppling-Cass-Beckford-statues.html

    I can't help but notice that you frequently post links to articles from the Daily Mail - very frequently, in fact. Is that because you regard it as a useful, or reliable, source of news or information? Just curious.

    I suppose it's a bit better than Guido, but there's not much in it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,159
    edited January 2021

    I can't help but notice that you frequently post links to articles from the Daily Mail - very frequently, in fact. Is that because you regard it as a useful, or reliable, source of news or information? Just curious.

    I suppose it's a bit better than Guido, but there's not much in it.
    I post links / info / snippets from all the newspapers. Plenty from the Guardian today.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:

    https://twitter.com/Govgg/status/1352617013986750465?s=20

    The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
    "Zero Covid" doesn't literally mean zero. It means driving cases down far enough that you can then keep the virus in check by controlling the borders and stamping hard on any outbreaks rather than applying general restrictions. Which of course is what Guernsey, New Zealand and others are doing. We weren't far off that situation when we had 500 cases a day in early July.
  • Not only are they making a false comparison on date of announcement, we know there are day of the week variations...specimen date is what matters...
    It is of course ludicrous to compare today's figures with yesterday's and you rightly censor the BBC for doing so. As Gaussian says, the trend is still very much downwards, and that's the important thing.

    However, it really doesn't matter that they are using the reporting date for case data, given that the data by specimen date shows even more of a weekend effect and is incomplete. I really don't know why you and others are making such a big deal of this.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Floater said:
    Yep. Never assume that this thing can't get any worse, because it always can and it usually will.
  • Its going to be many more days yet to come of horrific death numbers.
    It's fantastic that we're doing so well on vaccinations, but terrible that our need to vaccinate is so desperately urgent.
  • It is of course ludicrous to compare today's figures with yesterday's and you rightly censor the BBC for doing so. As Gaussian says, the trend is still very much downwards, and that's the important thing.

    However, it really doesn't matter that they are using the reporting date for case data, given that the data by specimen date shows even more of a weekend effect and is incomplete. I really don't know why you and others are making such a big deal of this.
    It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,624
    RH1992 said:

    Saw this post right as it flew overhead. Quite rare to hear a jet coming into land at LBA these days!
    They seem to have been doing a lot of faffing about today. LBA - NCL, NCL - LBA and these circuits at LBA and MAN.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,159
    edited January 2021
    Boris up in 15 mins...currently ruffling his hair to look just the right amount of messy and ironing creases into his suit.
  • Carnyx said:

    That must be 95% abv? Very useful indeed.
    Yes. Traditional way in the Heartland of jazzing up a senior prom, livening up a hobo jungle or filling up an emergency room.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    They seem to have been doing a lot of faffing about today. LBA - NCL, NCL - LBA and these circuits at LBA and MAN.
    Perhaps they are having to put on more flights to BGI.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369

    Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9175451/Government-intervene-STOP-City-London-toppling-Cass-Beckford-statues.html

    I studied history to SYS level at school and got an A despite using books not statues as my primary source of information.
    What if the thing you learn from the past is that you shouldn't put bad people on plinths?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,624

    Its going to be many more days yet to come of horrific death numbers.
    The media will fixate when we go above 100,000 next week. I remember when people were shocked when the experts said 20,000 would be a good result.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,559

    They seem to have been doing a lot of faffing about today. LBA - NCL, NCL - LBA and these circuits at LBA and MAN.
    Getting hours up for various reasons?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Foxy said:

    Not good news, though not yet conclusive:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1352634648199749633?s=19

    Jeez Shagger Ferguson?

    Really?

    FFS
  • glwglw Posts: 10,315
    edited January 2021

    It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.

    It really is striking how much of the media is essentially innumerate and scientifically illiterate. I have had it up to here listening to the brieings, and hearing political correspondents questioning medics and scientists and asking the same stupid questions over and over again. If I was standing at the lectern they'd get a piece of my mind. On most occasions the public have asked better question, which at least have a point even if they are sometimes rather narrow in scope.
  • It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.
    You can look on the government site and see for yourself that the moving averages for cases by reporting date and specimen date are damn near identical. It is simply wrong of you to discount the data by reporting date given its predictive value. I don't understand how you don't get this.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,749
    IshmaelZ said:

    We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
    Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030
    TOPPING said:

    I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.

    And yes, I am a rinker.
    Does that mean you put ice in your whisky ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Thanks. PEH told she could only have Pfizer in PEH. I'll check.

    I'm quite sure she won't put up with any nonsense and nor will her daughters; especially the one who is in most frequent contact.
    They are using PEH for the Pfizer roll out (I presume storage dictated) and AZN for GPs/Care Homes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,624

    Boris up in 15 mins...currently ruffling his hair to look just the right amount of messy and ironing creases into his suit.

    Hi suit? I thought he just borrowed one from someone either much smaller or much bigger than he is.

    Meanwhile,,, here's Devi!
  • The new variant of coronavirus discovered in Kent is up to 30 per cent more deadly than the original, Boris Johnson will announce later today.

    Prof Neil Ferguson, who sits on Nervtag, the Government's virus advisory committee, said the latest data showed up to 13 in 1000 people aged 60 who contract the variant strain could die, compared with 10 in 1000 who caught the original variant.

    Boris Johnson is expected to address the latest findings in a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.

    "It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty," Prof Ferguson told ITV.

    "Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death."

    The professor said the data available on the new variant is patchy, but there is a "signal" that there is a "1.3-fold increased risk of death".

    The new variant, which has now been reported across the UK and in several other countries, is also more transmissable.


    Telegraph.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Nigelb said:

    Does that mean you put ice in your whisky ?
    And stirs it with a little plastic broom.
  • Unfortunate headline...

    Bath couple spend last £20 on KFC treat and get 'rock hard' (newline so gets cut off on feed)
    ...clicks link...
    burger

    Is this a reference to "flint napping?"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    edited January 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Does that mean you put ice in your whisky ?
    Actually, I do sometimes.

    Depends.

    A bottle of whisky, neat (sans revolver) is the perfect accompaniment to a late/early starting boxing match on the tv. I think I drank at least half a bottle overnight during the Mayweather/McGregor card.

    That said, if it's early in the evening or before lunch (kidding) I quite like to pour a glass, put some ice cubes in there and then wait a bit to let them melt just enough to take the edge off.
  • Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
    Of all countries, we are one of those most desperately in need of a rapid vaccination roll out.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Gaussian said:

    "Zero Covid" doesn't literally mean zero.
    Then an alternative description might be helpful - I have seen some describe "Zero COVID" as "Zero cases".

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,159
    edited January 2021

    Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.

    That message has been sadly lacking from the government after a 2 weeks post near death experience from Boris....and it could make a huge difference re Covid.

    'Fat but fit' is a myth when it comes to heart health, new study shows

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/21/health/fat-but-fit-study-scli-intl-wellness/index.html

    The whole "body positivity" stuff needs a dose of reality. Doesn't mean going all Marjorie Dawes, but this myth that you can be significantly overweight and still be healthy as those with a much lower BMI (yes I know flawed metric, insert waist to height, etc) needs putting to bed.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited January 2021

    The new variant of coronavirus discovered in Kent is up to 30 per cent more deadly than the original, Boris Johnson will announce later today.

    Prof Neil Ferguson, who sits on Nervtag, the Government's virus advisory committee, said the latest data showed up to 13 in 1000 people aged 60 who contract the variant strain could die, compared with 10 in 1000 who caught the original variant.

    Boris Johnson is expected to address the latest findings in a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.

    "It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty," Prof Ferguson told ITV.

    "Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death."

    The professor said the data available on the new variant is patchy, but there is a "signal" that there is a "1.3-fold increased risk of death".

    The new variant, which has now been reported across the UK and in several other countries, is also more transmissable.


    Telegraph.

    Pressure increases to lift lockdown....

    Up pops shagger with the solution!!!
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.
    The 7-day average by reporting date saves the discussion of how many of the last few days by specimen date need to be ignored, and has a little bit less lag. The cases number and chart on the "Daily update" page use reporting date numbers. The drawback is that any problems with the reporting system (other than the weekly rhythm) have more effect on it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.

    Yep, calories in v calories out.

    Well done, will-power is king.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,162
    edited January 2021
    Floater said:
    All the more reason to speed up the vaccination programme. Offer to jab young people at inconvenient times for example.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,749

    Jeez Shagger Ferguson?

    Really?

    FFS
    Not sure if you're jealous, or just unpleasant.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
    I continue to think - and it is no great original thought or insight - that excess deaths will be the only metric that anyone, and in particular the Great British public will or should care about in the months and years to come.
  • I studied history to SYS level at school and got an A despite using books not statues as my primary source of information.
    What if the thing you learn from the past is that you shouldn't put bad people on plinths?
    I learned from the Statue of Liberty that the American Revolution was won by Amazons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251
    edited January 2021
    Gaussian said:

    "Zero Covid" doesn't literally mean zero. It means driving cases down far enough that you can then keep the virus in check by controlling the borders and stamping hard on any outbreaks rather than applying general restrictions. Which of course is what Guernsey, New Zealand and others are doing. We weren't far off that situation when we had 500 cases a day in early July.
    And then the Media luvvies demanded their summer sun.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.

    Fantastic. That is an amazing feat.

    Plus don't beat yourself up if you put on half a stone over the next six months.

    No one can diet continuously.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited January 2021

    Not sure if you're jealous, or just unpleasant.
    Ferguson's past predictions and modelling have been totally discredited, as has his personal conduct, and its a complete scandal he is still anywhere near a position of influence.

This discussion has been closed.