What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
It is a bit rich when a poster that writes little else other than tedious nationalistic crap accuses someone else of having a nationalistic speck of dust in their eye. Nationalism is the creed of the hypocrite and the bonehead.
Your definition of nationalism seems to include any opinion on the constitution other than the status quo.
1st dose 2nd dose Total Total 357,563 2,334 359,897 East Of England 54,940 91 55,031 London 39,008 1,118 40,126 Midlands 64,343 230 64,573 North East And Yorkshire 54,502 91 54,593 North West 55,918 439 56,357 South East 56,877 251 57,128 South West 29,922 111 30,033
DISASSSSTTTERRRRRRRRR.....might hit 400k UK wide if lucky.
However, still isn't going to hit the 500k this week and doesn't sound like next week is going to be good on the supply side.
Don't be so silly. The vaccination programme has been awesome across the UK (even Wales is not terrible). It is not the NHS, the mobilised troops helping to manage provision or Government's fault if there are supply difficulties.
I detest Johnson, but he staked the house on a vaccine, and won. This time his ambition was right, he has aimed for the stars, and if he at least hits the chimney pots, good on him. There is now a way out of this Covid fiasco, and Government doing its best in this instance, really is good enough.
We know you love him really - I've even borrowed your 'Double Boris' tag for the J&J vaccine because I liked it so much!
I really don't.
A very good vaccine start is not a free pass from much of what has gone before during the crisis. My favourite Johnsonian Covid- pandemic statement, which has, and during the public enquiry will be seen as utmost folly, is the line, "it is your patriotic duty to go to the pub". A comic line he has choked, and will continue to choke on.
Literally no one will care by this time this fabled public inquiry rolls around ... because they'll all be in the pub.
True. We'll all be in the pub but I think excess deaths will be the thing that the opposition (and of course the nation) focuses on if it is bad. If excess deaths aren't bad then I agree, people will be much better disposed to not give a damn/it was a global pandemic/followed the science/etc.
And on that last point, I am looking forward to the memoirs of Chris Whitty et al and wonder if they will look, to put it crudely for which apols, to claim credit for the successes and blame the government for the failures.
Guaranteed.
I find Whitty unbearable. It's like being lectured by a dead sheep.
I won't be buying his memoirs.
The sooner he and the rest of the unaccountable scientists fade out of public life the better.
Not unaccountable. If advice he gave government faces criticism you can bet your life the government will throw the book at him.
Not at all, how do we, the public, vote to remove him after such an abject performance. He and his ilk persuaded the government that closing the borders in January was pointless and we've all paid the price since then. Whatever economic damage we would have incurred from closing the border back then would be less than 10% of GDP and £400bn borrowed.
I think that's a pretty silly way of determining accountability. The public don't vote on most positions, and he is not a decision maker, are you seriously suggesting no one is accountable unless they are subject to a democratic vote at some point? That's insane.
He will be held to account in the way appropriate for his position. And even if that is found to be insufficient, even if he is unaccountable in some way, the idea he is unaccountable because we the public cannot vote to remove him is one of the barmiest things I've read for a long time. Is my postman unaccountable because I cannot vote him out if he does a bad job? Is my doctor unaccountable because they face consequences other than being voted out if he messes up?
Given how you've defined accountability for him, voting people out seems the only way you accept it.
I was writing something similar...
Whitty has a government position and will be ditched if he's not seen to be performing well. That's accountability.
Calling scientists unaccountable is pretty bizarre. It's one of the professions in which everything you do is out in the open for anyone to criticise - papers, peer review, post-publication dissection, letters etc etc. And to keep your job, you have to frequently persuade funding bodies that not only is your current proposal worthy of their hard-earned cash, but also defend your track record of delivery. That's all as it should be, of course, but it's certainly accountability.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.
Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
And yes, I am a rinker.
I think it all comes down to personal taste. And I am quite sure that I haven't tasted all the whiskies in the world. Yet.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Must say I feel sorry for the four-tenths of a person. Poor thing!
The up side is that the unfortunate fraction can be carried down to the beach (in a picnic basket?) to enjoy the sea air . . .
Assumes that excuses won't keep being found to leave lockdown exactly as it is.
Which is just paranoid conspiracist ramblings assuming the governments wants restrictions even when not needed and that the public will be content with that, as the latter is why the government is able to be so harsh.
Someone will want restrictions forever. Government has no incentive to do that.
It's not conspiracism, it's just pessimism - which is the product of feeling thoroughly depressed and fed up, allied to the tendency for things to keep going wrong.
We know perfectly well that there's zero chance of house arrest being relaxed once they get as far as jabbing the over 70s and the shielders. Quite why things should be radically different even when they've got as far as the over 50s I don't know. If it looks as if the Plague is finally under some tenuous form of control then the panic about swamping the hospitals with the young the second we let down our guard still won't go away, probably allied to a lot of dire warnings about more new variants emerging and a tsunami of Long Covid cases.
This is going to drag on until the entire adult population has been vaccinated, by which time Autumn will be upon us and then we'll be told that masks and social distancing will have to stay for another six months to suppress a combination of Winter Covid and Winter Flu. That takes us through to about April or May 2022, which is ample time both for fresh scare stories to gather pace and for some genuine catastrophe (e.g. imported Paraguayan Covid is resistant to vaccines, so we have to start all over again) to happen.
A lot of the mad scientists are either still agitating for a zero Covid policy, or stating that herd immunity cannot be reached and we must therefore tolerate restrictions forever. We'll be lucky if this is ever done with. I'm not at all sure that it will.
The key pinch point is hospitalisations. Once the over 45's are done, the hospitals will empty. If we carry on at the rate we are, that should be around Easter. Combine the effect of the lockdown (checks data - yep still working), with gradually increasing immunity among younger cohorts (e.g. NHS staff, care home staff), with the better weather (hat tip to last year) and yes by April things will be looking better. Note, I am not suggesting that at Easter life will be back to normal. Far from it, but restrictions will be coming off.
Lastly - I understand your pessimism, and I don't know your medical history, but maybe talk to someone about the depression? This is a grim time for us all - if there is help available, ask for it.
I was going to write a longer response, but let's just say that (i) I probably am depressed, (ii) there's really nothing useful to be done about it other than getting rid of the sodding Plague, and therefore (iii) you can probably understand why I proceed from the assumption that this will not happen for a very, very long time, if ever.
Too much has gone wrong already and too much is still left that can and almost certainly will go wrong. There's nothing at all unrealistic about imagining that everything will first be held up by delays and cock-ups in the vaccination program, then by hyper-caution from the scientific advisers, and finally by some new form of vaccine-resistant SuperCovid setting the clock all the way back to zero again.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey. So she's stuck in PEH.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
And yes, I am a rinker.
You're not always a rinker. Some good posts today on the public finances.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.
Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
The whole blended thing is interesting. With wine, the whole single patch of grapes thing is quite recent. And to an extent, was an invention of the growers to get power away from the wholesalers.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Now, it may be worth going "the whole hog" and cutting it to zero (although even Australia hasn't quite managed that)
The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:
The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
1st dose 2nd dose Total Total 357,563 2,334 359,897 East Of England 54,940 91 55,031 London 39,008 1,118 40,126 Midlands 64,343 230 64,573 North East And Yorkshire 54,502 91 54,593 North West 55,918 439 56,357 South East 56,877 251 57,128 South West 29,922 111 30,033
DISASSSSTTTERRRRRRRRR.....might hit 400k UK wide if lucky.
However, still isn't going to hit the 500k this week and doesn't sound like next week is going to be good on the supply side.
Don't be so silly. The vaccination programme has been awesome across the UK (even Wales is not terrible). It is not the NHS, the mobilised troops helping to manage provision or Government's fault if there are supply difficulties.
I detest Johnson, but he staked the house on a vaccine, and won. This time his ambition was right, he has aimed for the stars, and if he at least hits the chimney pots, good on him. There is now a way out of this Covid fiasco, and Government doing its best in this instance, really is good enough.
We know you love him really - I've even borrowed your 'Double Boris' tag for the J&J vaccine because I liked it so much!
I really don't.
A very good vaccine start is not a free pass from much of what has gone before during the crisis. My favourite Johnsonian Covid- pandemic statement, which has, and during the public enquiry will be seen as utmost folly, is the line, "it is your patriotic duty to go to the pub". A comic line he has choked, and will continue to choke on.
Literally no one will care by this time this fabled public inquiry rolls around ... because they'll all be in the pub.
True. We'll all be in the pub but I think excess deaths will be the thing that the opposition (and of course the nation) focuses on if it is bad. If excess deaths aren't bad then I agree, people will be much better disposed to not give a damn/it was a global pandemic/followed the science/etc.
And on that last point, I am looking forward to the memoirs of Chris Whitty et al and wonder if they will look, to put it crudely for which apols, to claim credit for the successes and blame the government for the failures.
Guaranteed.
I find Whitty unbearable. It's like being lectured by a dead sheep.
I won't be buying his memoirs.
The sooner he and the rest of the unaccountable scientists fade out of public life the better.
Not unaccountable. If advice he gave government faces criticism you can bet your life the government will throw the book at him.
There will be a skeleton. One time, one Thursday morning when the "scientists" said do X and the govt said actually taking into account a, b, and c we'll do Y. And the following week/month a spike happened and the govt will be shit-scared of throwing anything at them when this is all done because the scientists will point to that Thursday morning and say "Look. This is a government you can't trust".
In a better society (hell, maybe even in this one) this will all be studied in detail and the many errors dissected to decide how to do it better next time. The science/scientists will have been wrong in places and the politicians will have been wrong in others. In many of those instances the decisions will have been reasonable on the evidence available at that time, particularly towards the start of the pandemic; in others, they will not.
The scientific side will be studied in detail. There will be modelling of different approaches, the what-ifs of locking down sooner, closing borders, comparisons between countries that did different things. But we'll also need study of the politics/science interaction - did the politicians ask the right questions/did the scientists point out when they were asking the wrong ones? Was there the right mix of scientists involved? Do we need new cross-discipline science looking at pandemic mitigation, which draws in epidemiology, economics and behavioural science? Next time, we could do better and we should as we'll know more, but that doesn't necessarily mean someone failed this time.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey. So she's stuck in PEH.
They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.
Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
The whole blended thing is interesting. With wine, the whole single patch of grapes thing is quite recent. And to an extent, was an invention of the growers to get power away from the wholesalers.
I suppose. But blended is a mixture of two rather different things - grain spirit and assorted malts to add flavour. So it's not even equivalent to those cheap wines which are blended from different sources, never mind a single terroir.
Actually, there is some decent blended whisky - Grouse is a very good standby esp for visitors who like their whisky with lemonade etc. - but I'm old enough and with enough disposable income to satisfy my occasional wish for a single malt. The specialist whisky shops in Edinbrugh certainly don't turn up their noses at overseas malts in my experience, either.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
And yes, I am a rinker.
You're not always a rinker. Some good posts today on the public finances.
Thanks. As you are only too keenly aware it's not at all easy to make even one good post most days.
Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey. So she's stuck in PEH.
They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here.
Good; I spoke with her Tuesday afternoon so that's quite a time ago. That's not her only problem, of course.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
And yes, I am a rinker.
I think it all comes down to personal taste. And I am quite sure that I haven't tasted all the whiskies in the world. Yet.
In January 2001 I visited a hotel bar in Stockholm which prided itself on its collection of whiskies. It had over 20 different types and I tried every one in a single sitting. There were some quite special labels. Wish I could remember the names.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.
Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
IF we are going to go all jingo re: booze, then know that I've got a bottle of 100% made-in-USA Everclear. At 190 proof THE most powerful AND versatile spirit ever distilled!
Equally usefully for stripping paint, powering your lawnmower AND blowing the top of your head clean off. USA! USA!
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.
Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
IF we are going to go all jingo re: booze, then know that I've got a bottle of 100% made-in-USA Everclear. At 190 proof THE most powerful AND versatile spirit ever distilled!
Equally usefully for stripping paint, powering your lawnmower AND blowing the top of your head clean off. USA! USA!
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey. So she's stuck in PEH.
They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here. - Edit - AZN has been on Alderney for a week:
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
Not only are they making a false comparison on date of announcement, we know there are day of the week variations...specimen date is what matters...
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Now, it may be worth going "the whole hog" and cutting it to zero (although even Australia hasn't quite managed that)
The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:
The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
Sounds similar to the contrasting experience of American Samoa & Western Samoa during the Spanish Influenza Pandemic.
Former was spared, later was not, thanks to difference between lockdown versus let-er-rip.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
We can never get into a debt trap like that while interest rates are so low. The Bank of England will simply print enough cash to buy up the extra government debt. Eventually the markets may conceivably panic, but the experience of Japan shows that we have a long way to go before we need to get worried.
That is one of the massive benefits - perhaps the biggest - we have because we stayed out of the euro. And to think some morons still want us to join it.
Last time it was crucial to bring the wrecked public finances under control but this time it isn't - even though they are more wrecked - because interest rates happen to be lower now? Sorry, don't buy it. I diagnose a combo of political bias and wishful thinking. The harsh truth is that either austerity will be required this time or it was not required - was pure political choice - last time. My view is that it was necessary then and will be necessary now. I'm a leftist but I don't believe in MMT.
No that's not the point. Last time it was not needed in 2008 because 2008 was during the recession. Who on Earth called for austerity DURING THE RECESSION in 2008?
What you lot seem to forget is that 2010-2018 when austerity finally closed the gap was not during the recession - it was years to a decade after the recession!
The priority right now is to get through the recession out to the other side. Once we're out the other side then difficult choices may be needed. If in 2022/23 we have a 10% deficit then some form of plan or drastic action will absolutely be needed to close it. Hopefully we won't have a 10% deficit this time, despite this recession being far worse, because we weren't so naked going into it.
I'm afraid something does not cease to be a point purely because you have no answer to it. We were screwed then and had to take some pain afterwards to balance the books. We are screwed now and will have to take some pain afterwards to balance the books. As to timing, you should read what I write instead of rushing to argue with it. I'm not suggesting austerity right this minute. That would be crazy. I'm talking about once we've clambered up off the floor. At that point difficult choices will (not may) be needed. Emphasis on tax rises rather than spending cuts this time, I hope, and with those tax rises targeted at the better off.
I'm going to continue to push my theory that at some point there will be a co-ordinated global write-off of Covid debt. However unprecedented it might be, once world leaders contemplate the consequences of the conventional alternative of a decade of spending cuts and tax rises, they'll go for the option that doesn't result in them being booted out of power and replaced by the kind of demagogues who'll make Donald Trump look like Eisenhower.
Would be wonderful but I doubt it. If that trick could be pulled off on this scale without mishap it would turn the world of government spending and macroeconomics on its head. If "print and write off" avoids paying the bills for a global pandemic, why should countries not act in concert (maybe via a new Global Bank) and do the same without a pandemic? There is so much we would love to spend money on in this world. Utopia beckons.
You've put your finger on the key objection, and not being an economist I don't have a real answer to it. Except to say that this has been a year of events previously thought unprecedented, impractical, or impossible. Several serious experts told us when this all kicked of in the West that there was no way a safe and effective vaccine could be deployed within a year; we now have at least three, plus Sinovac, plus Sputnik, plus the Double Boris on its way. The laws of economics are at least in part conventions and human constructs rather than absolutes, so in theory we should have much more control over them than we do over the behaviour of viruses.
I would be skeptical of arguments from economists seeking to show there IS a magic money tree. For me, this is closer to physics. Something like Newton's "for every action". By which I mean it's about the nitty gritty. To grow a marrow you must plant a marrow. But, look, I'm an optimist too. So if there's a way to dodge the pain I hope they find it. What's a great shame is that we don't have a subject matter colossus like Gordon Brown at the helm to co-ordinate a global economic & fiscal response. Still, you never know. Sunak appears no fool.
He is no fool and I'm betting (this is PB, right?) is very nervous right now. He knows that this can't continue for too much longer without huge long term if not permanent implications.
Politically, the overton window on spending has been moved. The pandemic is obviously the pandemic. But wait for Lab to name homelessness, poverty, the NHS, and the private ownership of Tescos as equally life-threatening crises. And who would blame them.
Absolutely. I'm trad and so I happen to think it was necessary to balance the books last time and that it's necessary now. But if it turns out we can just print money instead and avoid the fiscal pain, well then we could have done this before, couldn't we, and therefore all of that Tory austerity was exactly as described. It was TORY austerity. A political choice. Furthermore, that "unaffordable" Labour GE19 manifesto starts to look very attractive indeed. So, yes, spot on.
Droll, but there's a difference between a one-off debt cancellation event and just printing money indefinitely to support all ongoing expenditure. Just because you have an amnesty for illegal immigrants, that doesn't commit you to operating open borders forever. And the GFC, despite the name, didn't have the same kind of global impact and ability to touch everything everywhere the way the coronavirus does. A government proposing to write off GFC debt in 2010 wouldn't have found many like-minded friends; this time might be different.
And yes, of course there would be an enormous temptation for such a 'one-off' to be repeated in the future. But we can deal with that problem the next time a global crisis of similar magnitude occurs.
Snot the point.
If the pandemic is a life-threatening crisis, why isn't homelessness. Surely you aren't going to begrudge spending a fraction of the cost of the pandemic on preventing people dying on the streets. Or from being poor. Or from having to shop at a privately-owned Tescos.
One can make that argument (and some doubtless will), but ultimately most people have a sense of perspective. As bad as it is for the people suffering from it, homelessness doesn't turn the world upside down, switch off the economy, and trap countless millions in place. Nor does a capitalist Tesco; nor even does living below the poverty line. Climate change (which kinabalu mentioned) is also not even close to comparable - it affects some people badly in some places, but to most it's completely imperceptible.
You're both probably right that the economic status quo will prevail, since that's what it usually does. But if there were ever a case for dispensing with orthodoxy, this is it.
Is it too early for this to be partly a result of the vaccination programme?
It probably is, especially since a large proportion of those vaccinated will have been the elderly who don't get out much (or at all), and therefore don't tend to be those spreading the infection. There might be a small effect from the vaccination of healthcare workers but I wouldn't expect it to be enough to show up in the R figure.
The figure where we should soon start seeing some improvement is hospitalisations for the over-80s, and soon after that deaths in the same age group. Need at least a couple more weeks, though.
The media narrative has moved on, but incredible the amount of testing / testing capacity now. Doing over 600k tests a day with a capacity of over 800k.
Five-time finalist Andy Murray will miss the Australian Open after a solution to find a "workable quarantine" following his positive test for coronavirus could not be found.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
1st dose 2nd dose Total Total 357,563 2,334 359,897 East Of England 54,940 91 55,031 London 39,008 1,118 40,126 Midlands 64,343 230 64,573 North East And Yorkshire 54,502 91 54,593 North West 55,918 439 56,357 South East 56,877 251 57,128 South West 29,922 111 30,033
DISASSSSTTTERRRRRRRRR.....might hit 400k UK wide if lucky.
However, still isn't going to hit the 500k this week and doesn't sound like next week is going to be good on the supply side.
Don't be so silly. The vaccination programme has been awesome across the UK (even Wales is not terrible). It is not the NHS, the mobilised troops helping to manage provision or Government's fault if there are supply difficulties.
I detest Johnson, but he staked the house on a vaccine, and won. This time his ambition was right, he has aimed for the stars, and if he at least hits the chimney pots, good on him. There is now a way out of this Covid fiasco, and Government doing its best in this instance, really is good enough.
We know you love him really - I've even borrowed your 'Double Boris' tag for the J&J vaccine because I liked it so much!
I really don't.
A very good vaccine start is not a free pass from much of what has gone before during the crisis. My favourite Johnsonian Covid- pandemic statement, which has, and during the public enquiry will be seen as utmost folly, is the line, "it is your patriotic duty to go to the pub". A comic line he has choked, and will continue to choke on.
Literally no one will care by this time this fabled public inquiry rolls around ... because they'll all be in the pub.
True. We'll all be in the pub but I think excess deaths will be the thing that the opposition (and of course the nation) focuses on if it is bad. If excess deaths aren't bad then I agree, people will be much better disposed to not give a damn/it was a global pandemic/followed the science/etc.
And on that last point, I am looking forward to the memoirs of Chris Whitty et al and wonder if they will look, to put it crudely for which apols, to claim credit for the successes and blame the government for the failures.
Guaranteed.
I find Whitty unbearable. It's like being lectured by a dead sheep.
I won't be buying his memoirs.
The sooner he and the rest of the unaccountable scientists fade out of public life the better.
Not unaccountable. If advice he gave government faces criticism you can bet your life the government will throw the book at him.
Not at all, how do we, the public, vote to remove him after such an abject performance. He and his ilk persuaded the government that closing the borders in January was pointless and we've all paid the price since then. Whatever economic damage we would have incurred from closing the border back then would be less than 10% of GDP and £400bn borrowed.
I think that's a pretty silly way of determining accountability. The public don't vote on most positions, and he is not a decision maker, are you seriously suggesting no one is accountable unless they are subject to a democratic vote at some point? That's insane.
He will be held to account in the way appropriate for his position. And even if that is found to be insufficient, even if he is unaccountable in some way, the idea he is unaccountable because we the public cannot vote to remove him is one of the barmiest things I've read for a long time. Is my postman unaccountable because I cannot vote him out if he does a bad job? Is my doctor unaccountable because they face consequences other than being voted out if he messes up?
Given how you've defined accountability for him, voting people out seems the only way you accept it.
I was writing something similar...
Whitty has a government position and will be ditched if he's not seen to be performing well. That's accountability.
Calling scientists unaccountable is pretty bizarre. It's one of the professions in which everything you do is out in the open for anyone to criticise - papers, peer review, post-publication dissection, letters etc etc. And to keep your job, you have to frequently persuade funding bodies that not only is your current proposal worthy of their hard-earned cash, but also defend your track record of delivery. That's all as it should be, of course, but it's certainly accountability.
And, increasingly, that defended track record includes - literally - public engagement - media releases, science festivals etc.
Is it too early for this to be partly a result of the vaccination programme?
It probably is, especially since a large proportion of those vaccinated will have been the elderly who don't get out much (or at all), and therefore don't tend to be those spreading the infection. There might be a small effect from the vaccination of healthcare workers but I wouldn't expect it to be enough to show up in the R figure.
The figure where we should soon start seeing some improvement is hospitalisations for the over-80s, and soon after that deaths in the same age group. Need at least a couple more weeks, though.
I'm hopeful that the vaccination of NHS and care staff will knock about 0.1 - 0.2 off R entirely by itself.
Assumes that excuses won't keep being found to leave lockdown exactly as it is.
Which is just paranoid conspiracist ramblings assuming the governments wants restrictions even when not needed and that the public will be content with that, as the latter is why the government is able to be so harsh.
Someone will want restrictions forever. Government has no incentive to do that.
Except that we are in a rather perverse political situation in which take away liberties = good; restore liberties = bad.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
And yes, I am a rinker.
I think it all comes down to personal taste. And I am quite sure that I haven't tasted all the whiskies in the world. Yet.
In January 2001 I visited a hotel bar in Stockholm which prided itself on its collection of whiskies. It had over 20 different types and I tried every one in a single sitting. There were some quite special labels. Wish I could remember the names.
I recommend the "Pot Still" in Glasgow. it is like a library of whisky.
The media narrative has moved on, but incredible the amount of testing / testing capacity now. Doing over 600k tests a day with a capacity of over 800k.
I know some people in critical roles are getting daily tests every day now instead of weekly tests.
Is it too early for this to be partly a result of the vaccination programme?
It probably is, especially since a large proportion of those vaccinated will have been the elderly who don't get out much (or at all), and therefore don't tend to be those spreading the infection. There might be a small effect from the vaccination of healthcare workers but I wouldn't expect it to be enough to show up in the R figure.
The figure where we should soon start seeing some improvement is hospitalisations for the over-80s, and soon after that deaths in the same age group. Need at least a couple more weeks, though.
I'm hopeful that the vaccination of NHS and care staff will knock about 0.1 - 0.2 off R entirely by itself.
Completely and utterly dire economic figures today.
and that was before lock down.
Closer to half a trillion deficit than GBP400bn when all is said and done....???
Letting inflation rip must be the plan. Nothing else makes sense.
What about a century of austerity?
Shouldn't be necessary, thankfully there wasn't the structural deficit going into this recession that there was going into the last one so we're in much better shape ultimately to deal with this despite it being a far, far, far greater shock to the system. The last recession was peanuts compared to this but we went into it naked and exposed.
The structural deficit, if there was one, had sod all to do with the global financial crisis and has nothing to do with this one either.
It absolutely does because the damage of the recession gets added to the damage of the pre-existing deficit.
Recessions on average tend to add 6-7% to the deficit. That's not too bad if you've got a small surplus or rather neutral, the deficit swells to 6-7% and then a couple of years growth sees it come back down. It is an absolute disaster if the deficit was already 3% because then it goes to 10% - and suddenly you've got rapidly expanding exponential growth of your debt that you can't handle.
Have you still not figured out how exponential growth works, even after this past year? Once your problem becomes exponential it needs drastic action to fix it.
Recessions happen, they're a fact of life that can't be avoided. What happened before going into them, how they're handled - and the state of how you come out of them - all that matters.
We can never get into a debt trap like that while interest rates are so low. The Bank of England will simply print enough cash to buy up the extra government debt. Eventually the markets may conceivably panic, but the experience of Japan shows that we have a long way to go before we need to get worried.
That is one of the massive benefits - perhaps the biggest - we have because we stayed out of the euro. And to think some morons still want us to join it.
Last time it was crucial to bring the wrecked public finances under control but this time it isn't - even though they are more wrecked - because interest rates happen to be lower now? Sorry, don't buy it. I diagnose a combo of political bias and wishful thinking. The harsh truth is that either austerity will be required this time or it was not required - was pure political choice - last time. My view is that it was necessary then and will be necessary now. I'm a leftist but I don't believe in MMT.
No that's not the point. Last time it was not needed in 2008 because 2008 was during the recession. Who on Earth called for austerity DURING THE RECESSION in 2008?
What you lot seem to forget is that 2010-2018 when austerity finally closed the gap was not during the recession - it was years to a decade after the recession!
The priority right now is to get through the recession out to the other side. Once we're out the other side then difficult choices may be needed. If in 2022/23 we have a 10% deficit then some form of plan or drastic action will absolutely be needed to close it. Hopefully we won't have a 10% deficit this time, despite this recession being far worse, because we weren't so naked going into it.
I'm afraid something does not cease to be a point purely because you have no answer to it. We were screwed then and had to take some pain afterwards to balance the books. We are screwed now and will have to take some pain afterwards to balance the books. As to timing, you should read what I write instead of rushing to argue with it. I'm not suggesting austerity right this minute. That would be crazy. I'm talking about once we've clambered up off the floor. At that point difficult choices will (not may) be needed. Emphasis on tax rises rather than spending cuts this time, I hope, and with those tax rises targeted at the better off.
I'm going to continue to push my theory that at some point there will be a co-ordinated global write-off of Covid debt. However unprecedented it might be, once world leaders contemplate the consequences of the conventional alternative of a decade of spending cuts and tax rises, they'll go for the option that doesn't result in them being booted out of power and replaced by the kind of demagogues who'll make Donald Trump look like Eisenhower.
Would be wonderful but I doubt it. If that trick could be pulled off on this scale without mishap it would turn the world of government spending and macroeconomics on its head. If "print and write off" avoids paying the bills for a global pandemic, why should countries not act in concert (maybe via a new Global Bank) and do the same without a pandemic? There is so much we would love to spend money on in this world. Utopia beckons.
You've put your finger on the key objection, and not being an economist I don't have a real answer to it. Except to say that this has been a year of events previously thought unprecedented, impractical, or impossible. Several serious experts told us when this all kicked of in the West that there was no way a safe and effective vaccine could be deployed within a year; we now have at least three, plus Sinovac, plus Sputnik, plus the Double Boris on its way. The laws of economics are at least in part conventions and human constructs rather than absolutes, so in theory we should have much more control over them than we do over the behaviour of viruses.
I would be skeptical of arguments from economists seeking to show there IS a magic money tree. For me, this is closer to physics. Something like Newton's "for every action". By which I mean it's about the nitty gritty. To grow a marrow you must plant a marrow. But, look, I'm an optimist too. So if there's a way to dodge the pain I hope they find it. What's a great shame is that we don't have a subject matter colossus like Gordon Brown at the helm to co-ordinate a global economic & fiscal response. Still, you never know. Sunak appears no fool.
He is no fool and I'm betting (this is PB, right?) is very nervous right now. He knows that this can't continue for too much longer without huge long term if not permanent implications.
Politically, the overton window on spending has been moved. The pandemic is obviously the pandemic. But wait for Lab to name homelessness, poverty, the NHS, and the private ownership of Tescos as equally life-threatening crises. And who would blame them.
Absolutely. I'm trad and so I happen to think it was necessary to balance the books last time and that it's necessary now. But if it turns out we can just print money instead and avoid the fiscal pain, well then we could have done this before, couldn't we, and therefore all of that Tory austerity was exactly as described. It was TORY austerity. A political choice. Furthermore, that "unaffordable" Labour GE19 manifesto starts to look very attractive indeed. So, yes, spot on.
Droll, but there's a difference between a one-off debt cancellation event and just printing money indefinitely to support all ongoing expenditure. Just because you have an amnesty for illegal immigrants, that doesn't commit you to operating open borders forever. And the GFC, despite the name, didn't have the same kind of global impact and ability to touch everything everywhere the way the coronavirus does. A government proposing to write off GFC debt in 2010 wouldn't have found many like-minded friends; this time might be different.
And yes, of course there would be an enormous temptation for such a 'one-off' to be repeated in the future. But we can deal with that problem the next time a global crisis of similar magnitude occurs.
Snot the point.
If the pandemic is a life-threatening crisis, why isn't homelessness. Surely you aren't going to begrudge spending a fraction of the cost of the pandemic on preventing people dying on the streets. Or from being poor. Or from having to shop at a privately-owned Tescos.
One can make that argument (and some doubtless will), but ultimately most people have a sense of perspective. As bad as it is for the people suffering from it, homelessness doesn't turn the world upside down, switch off the economy, and trap countless millions in place. Nor does a capitalist Tesco; nor even does living below the poverty line. Climate change (which kinabalu mentioned) is also not even close to comparable - it affects some people badly in some places, but to most it's completely imperceptible.
You're both probably right that the economic status quo will prevail, since that's what it usually does. But if there were ever a case for dispensing with orthodoxy, this is it.
People will be keen to plead "special case" for this and they would of course be right.
But equally I can see a lot of mileage from a competent LotO (big ask) in saying "You rightly spent XXXbn on the pandemic to save YYY lives. All we are suggesting is to spend a AAAth of that to save BBB lives."
The South West now has the highest Covid-19 coronavirus daily growth rate in the country, according to the latest estimates from SAGE - the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
It isn't a competition, but in case you've missed it the "British virus" as the world is calling it is horrific.
Is it too early for this to be partly a result of the vaccination programme?
It probably is, especially since a large proportion of those vaccinated will have been the elderly who don't get out much (or at all), and therefore don't tend to be those spreading the infection. There might be a small effect from the vaccination of healthcare workers but I wouldn't expect it to be enough to show up in the R figure.
The figure where we should soon start seeing some improvement is hospitalisations for the over-80s, and soon after that deaths in the same age group. Need at least a couple more weeks, though.
I'm hopeful that the vaccination of NHS and care staff will knock about 0.1 - 0.2 off R entirely by itself.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey. So she's stuck in PEH.
They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here. - Edit - AZN has been on Alderney for a week:
Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'
I can't help but notice that you frequently post links to articles from the Daily Mail - very frequently, in fact. Is that because you regard it as a useful, or reliable, source of news or information? Just curious.
I suppose it's a bit better than Guido, but there's not much in it.
Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'
I can't help but notice that you frequently post links to articles from the Daily Mail - very frequently, in fact. Is that because you regard it as a useful, or reliable, source of news or information? Just curious.
I suppose it's a bit better than Guido, but there's not much in it.
I post links / info / snippets from all the newspapers. Plenty from the Guardian today.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Now, it may be worth going "the whole hog" and cutting it to zero (although even Australia hasn't quite managed that)
The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:
The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
"Zero Covid" doesn't literally mean zero. It means driving cases down far enough that you can then keep the virus in check by controlling the borders and stamping hard on any outbreaks rather than applying general restrictions. Which of course is what Guernsey, New Zealand and others are doing. We weren't far off that situation when we had 500 cases a day in early July.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
Not only are they making a false comparison on date of announcement, we know there are day of the week variations...specimen date is what matters...
It is of course ludicrous to compare today's figures with yesterday's and you rightly censor the BBC for doing so. As Gaussian says, the trend is still very much downwards, and that's the important thing.
However, it really doesn't matter that they are using the reporting date for case data, given that the data by specimen date shows even more of a weekend effect and is incomplete. I really don't know why you and others are making such a big deal of this.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
Not only are they making a false comparison on date of announcement, we know there are day of the week variations...specimen date is what matters...
It is of course ludicrous to compare today's figures with yesterday's and you rightly censor the BBC for doing so. As Gaussian says, the trend is still very much downwards, and that's the important thing.
However, it really doesn't matter that they are using the reporting date for case data, given that the data by specimen date shows even more of a weekend effect and is incomplete. I really don't know why you and others are making such a big deal of this.
It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
If his attitude to wine is like his to whisky - 'blended' as a great whisky, forsooth - I'll look forward to him recommending Buckie as a contender vs. Chateauneuf du Pape.
Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
IF we are going to go all jingo re: booze, then know that I've got a bottle of 100% made-in-USA Everclear. At 190 proof THE most powerful AND versatile spirit ever distilled!
Equally usefully for stripping paint, powering your lawnmower AND blowing the top of your head clean off. USA! USA!
That must be 95% abv? Very useful indeed.
Yes. Traditional way in the Heartland of jazzing up a senior prom, livening up a hobo jungle or filling up an emergency room.
Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'
I studied history to SYS level at school and got an A despite using books not statues as my primary source of information. What if the thing you learn from the past is that you shouldn't put bad people on plinths?
It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.
It really is striking how much of the media is essentially innumerate and scientifically illiterate. I have had it up to here listening to the brieings, and hearing political correspondents questioning medics and scientists and asking the same stupid questions over and over again. If I was standing at the lectern they'd get a piece of my mind. On most occasions the public have asked better question, which at least have a point even if they are sometimes rather narrow in scope.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
Not only are they making a false comparison on date of announcement, we know there are day of the week variations...specimen date is what matters...
It is of course ludicrous to compare today's figures with yesterday's and you rightly censor the BBC for doing so. As Gaussian says, the trend is still very much downwards, and that's the important thing.
However, it really doesn't matter that they are using the reporting date for case data, given that the data by specimen date shows even more of a weekend effect and is incomplete. I really don't know why you and others are making such a big deal of this.
It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.
You can look on the government site and see for yourself that the moving averages for cases by reporting date and specimen date are damn near identical. It is simply wrong of you to discount the data by reporting date given its predictive value. I don't understand how you don't get this.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Two questions:
(1) Does Guernsey also require a test 48 hours before travel? (2) The 7% found on day 13, did they travel on a plane with someone known to have been infected?
1) No - because pre-flight testing misses 100% of those infected en-route. Indeed on-arrival testing also misses 100% of those infected en-route. 2) No - because they would have been contact-trace identified from an infected passenger - they presented (probably) asymptomatic at Day 13.
Modelling had suggested they'd get about 10 infected passengers for every 1,000 arrivals - they've actually had 10.4 - so they're pretty happy with the model.
Sister is still in hospital on the island, been offered the Pfizer vaccine, but as she wants to go home to Alderney, and there's no means of storing that on the Isle, so she wants the AZN one. Which, the last time I spoke to her wasn't available on Guernsey. So she's stuck in PEH.
They're rolling out AZN from Monday so it's certainly here. - Edit - AZN has been on Alderney for a week:
The new variant of coronavirus discovered in Kent is up to 30 per cent more deadly than the original, Boris Johnson will announce later today.
Prof Neil Ferguson, who sits on Nervtag, the Government's virus advisory committee, said the latest data showed up to 13 in 1000 people aged 60 who contract the variant strain could die, compared with 10 in 1000 who caught the original variant.
Boris Johnson is expected to address the latest findings in a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.
"It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty," Prof Ferguson told ITV.
"Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death."
The professor said the data available on the new variant is patchy, but there is a "signal" that there is a "1.3-fold increased risk of death".
The new variant, which has now been reported across the UK and in several other countries, is also more transmissable.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
What happens when the U.K. shuts the border or demands daily testing for the unvaccinated French?
My opinion? This year will produce a vintage French whine.....
And the English varieties are also now very competitive. Sparkling? Not so much.
Well, apart from Best Sparkling Wine Producer at the International Wine and Spirit Competition 2020? I'm talking in the world - ahead of all the French champagne houses. Langham Wine Estate, Dorset. From vines only planted a decade ago.
A post mildly taking the pish out of tedious PB English wine nationalism....gets a tedious PB English wine nationalism post, superb stuff!
Do I misremember or do you not even drink?
No, I don't rink. Just surrounded by those who do.
Nothing wrong with pointing out that English wines are now taking on the French - and beating them. If Scotland were making the world's best whiskies, I'd expect you to be trumpeting that.
See, it's typically nationalists who trumpet a drink that constitutes less than 1% of the UK market that seem to 'expect' other folk to be doing similar. If you can find a single post on here from me doing some needle dick boasting about whisky, I'll cancel your side of that bet we had on whether a bridge/tunnel will be built between Scotland and NI during the glorious reign of BJ, £50 wasn't it? Get searching and you might have a free bet!
I don't believe there is a whisky, nor indeed a paint stripper, to beat Old Mull.
And yes, I am a rinker.
Does that mean you put ice in your whisky ?
Actually, I do sometimes.
Depends.
A bottle of whisky, neat (sans revolver) is the perfect accompaniment to a late/early starting boxing match on the tv. I think I drank at least half a bottle overnight during the Mayweather/McGregor card.
That said, if it's early in the evening or before lunch (kidding) I quite like to pour a glass, put some ice cubes in there and then wait a bit to let them melt just enough to take the edge off.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
Of all countries, we are one of those most desperately in need of a rapid vaccination roll out.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Now, it may be worth going "the whole hog" and cutting it to zero (although even Australia hasn't quite managed that)
The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:
The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
"Zero Covid" doesn't literally mean zero.
Then an alternative description might be helpful - I have seen some describe "Zero COVID" as "Zero cases".
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
That message has been sadly lacking from the government after a 2 weeks post near death experience from Boris....and it could make a huge difference re Covid.
'Fat but fit' is a myth when it comes to heart health, new study shows
The whole "body positivity" stuff needs a dose of reality. Doesn't mean going all Marjorie Dawes, but this myth that you can be significantly overweight and still be healthy as those with a much lower BMI (yes I know flawed metric, insert waist to height, etc) needs putting to bed.
The new variant of coronavirus discovered in Kent is up to 30 per cent more deadly than the original, Boris Johnson will announce later today.
Prof Neil Ferguson, who sits on Nervtag, the Government's virus advisory committee, said the latest data showed up to 13 in 1000 people aged 60 who contract the variant strain could die, compared with 10 in 1000 who caught the original variant.
Boris Johnson is expected to address the latest findings in a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.
"It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty," Prof Ferguson told ITV.
"Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death."
The professor said the data available on the new variant is patchy, but there is a "signal" that there is a "1.3-fold increased risk of death".
The new variant, which has now been reported across the UK and in several other countries, is also more transmissable.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
Yes but down from 55k last Friday, continuing the extremely welcome trend of >20% week-to-week falls.
Not only are they making a false comparison on date of announcement, we know there are day of the week variations...specimen date is what matters...
It is of course ludicrous to compare today's figures with yesterday's and you rightly censor the BBC for doing so. As Gaussian says, the trend is still very much downwards, and that's the important thing.
However, it really doesn't matter that they are using the reporting date for case data, given that the data by specimen date shows even more of a weekend effect and is incomplete. I really don't know why you and others are making such a big deal of this.
It should be a moving average based on when the tests where taken. We are 9 months into this and the only person I have seen in the mainstream media who seems to get this is Ed Conway.
The 7-day average by reporting date saves the discussion of how many of the last few days by specimen date need to be ignored, and has a little bit less lag. The cases number and chart on the "Daily update" page use reporting date numbers. The drawback is that any problems with the reporting system (other than the weekly rhythm) have more effect on it.
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
We have passed Italy on the worldometer deaths/million score. Czechia and Belgium are the only serious countries above us, and we are worldbeating among countries with pop >12m.
Yes, our death toll and death rate are absolutely dire, and compare unfavourably with virtually all similar nations. So currently we have a world-beating death rate alongside a world-beating vaccination roll out. Government must be hoping that early vaccination will move us down the death league table in a few months. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
I continue to think - and it is no great original thought or insight - that excess deaths will be the only metric that anyone, and in particular the Great British public will or should care about in the months and years to come.
Government could intervene to STOP the City of London toppling statues to William Beckford and Sir John Cass over slave trade links for going against policy to 'learn from the past'
I studied history to SYS level at school and got an A despite using books not statues as my primary source of information. What if the thing you learn from the past is that you shouldn't put bad people on plinths?
I learned from the Statue of Liberty that the American Revolution was won by Amazons.
Interesting stat from the Guernsey arrival COVID screening - 56% of positive tests have been found on arrival, 37% have been identified from arrival to day 12 - and 7% have been identified on the day 13 test (mandatory, unless you want to spend 21 days in self-isolation). Which rather calls into question this (mooted/agreed?) UK plan of "release from quarantine on negative Day 5 test." Also under discussion starting to charge arrivals for testing (£25/go, two required) for the selfish sods travellers, TBC.
Now, it may be worth going "the whole hog" and cutting it to zero (although even Australia hasn't quite managed that)
The CMO (who by sheer good fortune is a trained epidemiologist) has described "Zero Covid" as 'epidemiologically illiterate' ("waves at Edinburgh") - as long as the virus exists in widespread circulation all you can do is control - in Guernsey's case by robust border control and fines up to £10,000 for breaches. Everyone knows the score - and the government has communicated effectively. This is for Monday's mass vaccination centre opening:
The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
"Zero Covid" doesn't literally mean zero. It means driving cases down far enough that you can then keep the virus in check by controlling the borders and stamping hard on any outbreaks rather than applying general restrictions. Which of course is what Guernsey, New Zealand and others are doing. We weren't far off that situation when we had 500 cases a day in early July.
And then the Media luvvies demanded their summer sun.....
Today, I hit a weight loss of 4 stone (56lbs for those in the US; approximately 26kgs - I think - in new money) since I decided to stop being a fat git on 21st July last year. If I can do it, anyone can. Seriously. It's really simple: eat and drink less, exercise more. Forgive yourself when you bugger up, as you will. But always go again. Never stop trying. It's so worth it. That is all.
Fantastic. That is an amazing feat.
Plus don't beat yourself up if you put on half a stone over the next six months.
Ferguson's past predictions and modelling have been totally discredited, as has his personal conduct, and its a complete scandal he is still anywhere near a position of influence.
Comments
And yes, I am a rinker.
Whitty has a government position and will be ditched if he's not seen to be performing well. That's accountability.
Calling scientists unaccountable is pretty bizarre. It's one of the professions in which everything you do is out in the open for anyone to criticise - papers, peer review, post-publication dissection, letters etc etc. And to keep your job, you have to frequently persuade funding bodies that not only is your current proposal worthy of their hard-earned cash, but also defend your track record of delivery. That's all as it should be, of course, but it's certainly accountability.
Dammit, we were discussing uisge-beatha Seapanach with respectful interest only today.
Edit: Liberals, I should say!
The up side is that the unfortunate fraction can be carried down to the beach (in a picnic basket?) to enjoy the sea air . . .
Too much has gone wrong already and too much is still left that can and almost certainly will go wrong. There's nothing at all unrealistic about imagining that everything will first be held up by delays and cock-ups in the vaccination program, then by hyper-caution from the scientific advisers, and finally by some new form of vaccine-resistant SuperCovid setting the clock all the way back to zero again.
So she's stuck in PEH.
https://twitter.com/Govgg/status/1352617013986750465?s=20
The contrast with Jersey ("Open up the borders to protect business") is striking. Guernsey currently has 6 cases - all from inbound travel - a few weeks ago Jersey was up near 1,000 (now down to ±200, after they went back into lockdown). Guernsey has been "life as normal" since June. Except for the border.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1352610332821368836
The scientific side will be studied in detail. There will be modelling of different approaches, the what-ifs of locking down sooner, closing borders, comparisons between countries that did different things. But we'll also need study of the politics/science interaction - did the politicians ask the right questions/did the scientists point out when they were asking the wrong ones? Was there the right mix of scientists involved? Do we need new cross-discipline science looking at pandemic mitigation, which draws in epidemiology, economics and behavioural science? Next time, we could do better and we should as we'll know more, but that doesn't necessarily mean someone failed this time.
Actually, there is some decent blended whisky - Grouse is a very good standby esp for visitors who like their whisky with lemonade etc. - but I'm old enough and with enough disposable income to satisfy my occasional wish for a single malt. The specialist whisky shops in Edinbrugh certainly don't turn up their noses at overseas malts in my experience, either.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9175451/Government-intervene-STOP-City-London-toppling-Cass-Beckford-statues.html
Equally usefully for stripping paint, powering your lawnmower AND blowing the top of your head clean off. USA! USA!
The UK government has announced a further 1,401 people have died with coronavirus within 28 days of a positive test. That takes the total by that measure to 95,981.
There have also been a further 40,261 daily cases - the first time in six days that the number has been over 40,000.
Still f##king doing it....
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-guernsey-55622729
https://www.flightradar24.com/EXS066B/26a39492
Former was spared, later was not, thanks to difference between lockdown versus let-er-rip.
You're both probably right that the economic status quo will prevail, since that's what it usually does. But if there were ever a case for dispensing with orthodoxy, this is it.
The figure where we should soon start seeing some improvement is hospitalisations for the over-80s, and soon after that deaths in the same age group. Need at least a couple more weeks, though.
Which may not sound much but every little helps.
Unpleasant test to have to do every day.
But equally I can see a lot of mileage from a competent LotO (big ask) in saying "You rightly spent XXXbn on the pandemic to save YYY lives. All we are suggesting is to spend a AAAth of that to save BBB lives."
But if it does it will make a major difference.
Bath couple spend last £20 on KFC treat and get 'rock hard' (newline so gets cut off on feed)
...clicks link...
burger
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1352634648199749633?s=19
I'm quite sure she won't put up with any nonsense and nor will her daughters; especially the one who is in most frequent contact.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/22/news-boris-johnson-lockdown-end-fines-storm-christoph-brexit/
https://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/1352570747781337088?s=20
I suppose it's a bit better than Guido, but there's not much in it.
However, it really doesn't matter that they are using the reporting date for case data, given that the data by specimen date shows even more of a weekend effect and is incomplete. I really don't know why you and others are making such a big deal of this.
What if the thing you learn from the past is that you shouldn't put bad people on plinths?
Really?
FFS
Meanwhile,,, here's Devi!
Prof Neil Ferguson, who sits on Nervtag, the Government's virus advisory committee, said the latest data showed up to 13 in 1000 people aged 60 who contract the variant strain could die, compared with 10 in 1000 who caught the original variant.
Boris Johnson is expected to address the latest findings in a Downing Street press conference at 5pm.
"It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty," Prof Ferguson told ITV.
"Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death."
The professor said the data available on the new variant is patchy, but there is a "signal" that there is a "1.3-fold increased risk of death".
The new variant, which has now been reported across the UK and in several other countries, is also more transmissable.
Telegraph.
Depends.
A bottle of whisky, neat (sans revolver) is the perfect accompaniment to a late/early starting boxing match on the tv. I think I drank at least half a bottle overnight during the Mayweather/McGregor card.
That said, if it's early in the evening or before lunch (kidding) I quite like to pour a glass, put some ice cubes in there and then wait a bit to let them melt just enough to take the edge off.
'Fat but fit' is a myth when it comes to heart health, new study shows
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/21/health/fat-but-fit-study-scli-intl-wellness/index.html
The whole "body positivity" stuff needs a dose of reality. Doesn't mean going all Marjorie Dawes, but this myth that you can be significantly overweight and still be healthy as those with a much lower BMI (yes I know flawed metric, insert waist to height, etc) needs putting to bed.
Up pops shagger with the solution!!!
Well done, will-power is king.
Plus don't beat yourself up if you put on half a stone over the next six months.
No one can diet continuously.