There are also concerns about the rollout of the Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine. Ministers had expected to receive two million doses a week this month, but Astrazeneca suggested that it may not hit that target until mid-February.
Not just a U.K. problem either. The front runners are all stalling or going backwards. Looks like vaccine supply chain issues after the initial pre-approval production has all been used up.
That is the wrath of a veangeful God, lashing out against inane consumerism.
(He's also secretly looking forward to the law suit....)
The more I see of stuff like Goop and Trumpism and the rest, the more I come to the Marxist view of organised religion.
It is the opiate of the masses. But, I think, it may be a good thing.
I am an atheist - not the ranting kind, such a s Dawkins - just don't believe.
But it seems to me, more and more, that organised religion had the function of controlling the belief set of the very large number of people who need such beliefs.
Without that organisation, they don't sit around discussing refinements to utilitarianism, as atheists.
They invent their own religions. Which involves repeating all the mistakes from previous attempts.
Wasn't it Chesterton who said, 'those who cease to believe in God do not believe in nothing, they believe in anything?'
People need to stop acting like vaccination will be some sort of magic bullet for ~ 3/4 of this year. It'll have herd efficacy heading into autumn onwards but this winter, spring and summer will be about distancing and so forth to get numbers down.
Meanwhile in Dover, locals complain that this isn't the Brexit they voted for. A government spokesman (no pandering to totty thank you, this is BRITAIN) pointed out that the plans for the new Lorry Park had been on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”
Two interesting things in that article: this lorry park is but one of ten similar around the country. And the government thinks, for some reason, that it will only be needed for five years?
That's the Dover White Cliffs inland border facility, which is due to become operational by July.
There are six main sites and a number of pop-up temporary sites which will be decommissioned and consolidated into the permanent sites once steady-state has been reached.
The leases for all sites are for five years because in the long-term the Government want to digitise the customs border as much as possible, and don't yet know exactly which 2-4 sites the essential customs inspections will need to be consolidated upon, as it's dependent upon how trade and traffic patterns develop.
So, how much damage can Trump do in the next 8 hours? At least the end is nigh.
I expect Biden to be a crushing disappointment, and to further accentuate America's internal divisions rather than heal them, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
That is the wrath of a veangeful God, lashing out against inane consumerism.
(He's also secretly looking forward to the law suit....)
The more I see of stuff like Goop and Trumpism and the rest, the more I come to the Marxist view of organised religion.
It is the opiate of the masses. But, I think, it may be a good thing.
I am an atheist - not the ranting kind, such a s Dawkins - just don't believe.
But it seems to me, more and more, that organised religion had the function of controlling the belief set of the very large number of people who need such beliefs.
Without that organisation, they don't sit around discussing refinements to utilitarianism, as atheists.
They invent their own religions. Which involves repeating all the mistakes from previous attempts.
Wasn't it Chesterton who said, 'those who cease to believe in God do not believe in nothing, they believe in anything?'
IIRC Chesterton didn't only believe in the Christian God.
There are also concerns about the rollout of the Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine. Ministers had expected to receive two million doses a week this month, but Astrazeneca suggested that it may not hit that target until mid-February.
Not just a U.K. problem either. The front runners are all stalling or going backwards. Looks like vaccine supply chain issues after the initial pre-approval production has all been used up.
Seems to me that this sort of thing is what you'd imagine anyway. Initially the stocks were primarily those that had been built up ahead of approval - that stock is presumably now gone, and the gearing-up of the manufacturing is now taking over. So I think I'd have anticipated a dip around about now as the primary drivers of supply switched.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
I see the Times has splashed on the stuttering vaccination numbers.
Seems I was right to flag it after all.
Apparently so, though people did say to see where we were this week to see if we were on track. So far it does appear the initial acceleration has been halted.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
I see the Times has splashed on the stuttering vaccination numbers.
Seems I was right to flag it after all.
Apparently so, though people did say to see where we were this week to see if we were on track. So far it does appear the initial acceleration has been halted.
I would be cautious reading anything into a couple of days. There is a reason that 7 days averaging has become popular in stats, of late.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Oh absolutely. Its not an anti-vax warning, its an anti-cocking about warning.
Children are spreading the disease so we need to prioritise vaccinating teachers (and bus drivers?) but also recruiting children to clinical trials, if this has not already been done.
That is the wrath of a veangeful God, lashing out against inane consumerism.
(He's also secretly looking forward to the law suit....)
The more I see of stuff like Goop and Trumpism and the rest, the more I come to the Marxist view of organised religion.
It is the opiate of the masses. But, I think, it may be a good thing.
I am an atheist - not the ranting kind, such a s Dawkins - just don't believe.
But it seems to me, more and more, that organised religion had the function of controlling the belief set of the very large number of people who need such beliefs.
Without that organisation, they don't sit around discussing refinements to utilitarianism, as atheists.
They invent their own religions. Which involves repeating all the mistakes from previous attempts.
That's a really interesting conjecture, you may be on to something!
That is the wrath of a veangeful God, lashing out against inane consumerism.
(He's also secretly looking forward to the law suit....)
The more I see of stuff like Goop and Trumpism and the rest, the more I come to the Marxist view of organised religion.
It is the opiate of the masses. But, I think, it may be a good thing.
I am an atheist - not the ranting kind, such a s Dawkins - just don't believe.
But it seems to me, more and more, that organised religion had the function of controlling the belief set of the very large number of people who need such beliefs.
Without that organisation, they don't sit around discussing refinements to utilitarianism, as atheists.
They invent their own religions. Which involves repeating all the mistakes from previous attempts.
Wasn't it Chesterton who said, 'those who cease to believe in God do not believe in nothing, they believe in anything?'
I didn't know there was going to be a test, sir, so I didn't study for it.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Yep. According to one report or another on single jab efficacy (Pfizer-related) this accounted for the relatively high Covid incidence ofter Jab No.1. 4-5 days after it was administered people developed Covid. 14-21 days after the incidence/efficacy was much lower/higher (80-90% IIRC).
I see the Times has splashed on the stuttering vaccination numbers.
Seems I was right to flag it after all.
Apparently so, though people did say to see where we were this week to see if we were on track. So far it does appear the initial acceleration has been halted.
I would be cautious reading anything into a couple of days. There is a reason that 7 days averaging has become popular in stats, of late.
It could well turn itself around- new sites opened, new batch approved, so panicking or crowing about foresight should be curtailed.
Its inspiring and all, but I feel like his overcoming his stutter is the only thing I know about the man it comes up so much.
I hate this sort of story because they suggest that those with severe and intractable stutters just haven't tried hard enough. I used to stutter a bit and to be unusually short for my age, and to be mocked for both. I now don't stutter and am 6' tall, not in either case through any moral excellence on my part. It just happened.
It doesn't matter where it comes from. What matters is what the voting public now thinks. It is not in the gift of a government to make a promise over the heads of future voters.
There are also concerns about the rollout of the Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine. Ministers had expected to receive two million doses a week this month, but Astrazeneca suggested that it may not hit that target until mid-February.
Not just a U.K. problem either. The front runners are all stalling or going backwards. Looks like vaccine supply chain issues after the initial pre-approval production has all been used up.
The fact that other countries were slow in setting up probably helped the early adopters as there was less competition for vaccine supply. As others get their act together I imagine the front runners will slow a bit. Also low hanging fruit may be exhausted. Still, a good start > a bad start.
I see the Times has splashed on the stuttering vaccination numbers.
Seems I was right to flag it after all.
Apparently so, though people did say to see where we were this week to see if we were on track. So far it does appear the initial acceleration has been halted.
I would be cautious reading anything into a couple of days. There is a reason that 7 days averaging has become popular in stats, of late.
It could well turn itself around- new sites opened, new batch approved, so panicking or crowing about foresight should be curtailed.
I wouldn't so much say "turn itself around", as say that the increase will be uneven. In creating a new, expanding set of supply chains, you will create all kind of interesting queue effects - with effects rippling up and down the chain. The dominant effect will probably be supply of the vaccine - but that is not guaranteed.
Presumably not one Biden will reinstitute, as I imagine it would not be popular with his officials either.
Trumps move seems the equivalent of lowering the official salary 1 day before leaving, as a trap should the successor raise it back.
On the contrary. Though we'll have to see how this holds up in practice.
I Wrote President Obama’s Ethics Plan—Biden’s Is Better https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/19/biden-white-house-ethics-plan-460472 ...The new Biden plan not only fixes what Trump got wrong, it does the same for Obama’s ethics regime. For example, the Biden executive order adds a restriction on so-called golden parachutes—cash bonuses granted to executives as they leave a business to join the government. These windfalls create the perception that an ex-employee may favor her benefactor, and it is about time they ended. The Biden plan does that, restricting exit bonuses and requiring entering officials to certify that they have not accepted other benefits (such as deferred ones) in lieu of such packages. It goes well beyond existing law and is a strong step forward.
The new plan also builds on Obama's in closing the revolving door on the other side of government employment: when employees leave. Federal law imposes a one-year limit on a departing senior official communicating on behalf of clients with the agency where the official worked. In the Obama administration, we extended that to two years, on the theory that an employer might pay an ex-official to do nothing for 12 months, but 24 months is a long time for cold storage. Trump eliminated the Obama extension, farcically declaring that his officials must follow the applicable statute—which they already had to do.
Here too, Biden not only restores the Obama restriction of two years, he goes further. Now not only are officials restricted from representing clients to their former agencies, they are also cordoned off from their peers in the White House itself. This recognizes the reality that senior agency officials engage with the White House constantly and have ties there too, not just at their former agency. This rule will restrict them from using the special access and influence that follows, and they should not be allowed to use it for private gain....
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Oh absolutely. Its not an anti-vax warning, its an anti-cocking about warning.
Yes, it's rare that everybody on this site agrees on anything, but I think we all want universal vaccination asap.
Its inspiring and all, but I feel like his overcoming his stutter is the only thing I know about the man it comes up so much.
I hate this sort of story because they suggest that those with severe and intractable stutters just haven't tried hard enough. I used to stutter a bit and to be unusually short for my age, and to be mocked for both. I now don't stutter and am 6' tall, not in either case through any moral excellence on my part. It just happened.
I do not want to do a @Charles or @MarqueeMark here but I was present on an occasion when someone was trying to speak to The Queen about something and they had a severe stutter (nothing coming out rather than broken speech). After some agonising moments a colleague of this person interrupted by saying "Your Majesty, what he's trying to say..."
The Queen turned on him, furious, and snapped "leave him alone - he is doing perfectly well" and we all waited until the guy managed to say what he had to say.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
The Government has done a terrible job of commuincating that protection only kicks in after about 2 weeks. As soon as my wife gets her vaccine (she's on the ECV list) we'll be shutting up shop at home for 14 days
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
He could have had the virus any time in the last two weeks and displayed no signs. No surprise the rest of the office has it. But you can't get the virus from the vaccine.
Elliott leaves HK, staff primarily transferred to their London office which will handle Asia. Some go to Tokyo.
Paris or Frankfurt didn't even figure. Odd that. Lol.
Do they have an office in FFT/Paris?!
Park St so much more civilised.
It's more the point that London, IMO, is going to be the like for like replacement to HK for Asia investment and companies will just deal with the timezone issues as they arise. Paris and Frankfurt aren't going to figure in this at all and to my mind if the EU tries to cut London off they simply isolate themselves rather than us.
Our regulatory guy has pointed out on a number of occasions that the EU not giving the UK equivalence will break the idea that the EU is a regulatory superpower so it's better for them to give it and hold onto the pretence.
I think the next year or so is going to be a chastening experience for European countries hoping to pick up the scraps.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Oh absolutely. Its not an anti-vax warning, its an anti-cocking about warning.
The problem with all these stories is that because we understand how these things work we read the story one way.
It's however very likely that a lot of people will not understand the issues and will read it a very different way and then use social media to amplifier this story for their own ends.
See 5g and the idea that the vaccine has a chip in it as other examples.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Yep. According to one report or another on single jab efficacy (Pfizer-related) this accounted for the relatively high Covid incidence ofter Jab No.1. 4-5 days after it was administered people developed Covid. 14-21 days after the incidence/efficacy was much lower/higher (80-90% IIRC).
They are seeing a lot of infection is the first couple of weeks after the first shot (which is to be expected), but also quite a lot after that. I suspect the 80-90% is if you look at younger populations.
Elliott leaves HK, staff primarily transferred to their London office which will handle Asia. Some go to Tokyo.
Paris or Frankfurt didn't even figure. Odd that. Lol.
Do they have an office in FFT/Paris?!
Park St so much more civilised.
It's more the point that London, IMO, is going to be the like for like replacement to HK for Asia investment and companies will just deal with the timezone issues as they arise. Paris and Frankfurt aren't going to figure in this at all and to my mind if the EU tries to cut London off they simply isolate themselves rather than us.
Our regulatory guy has pointed out on a number of occasions that the EU not giving the UK equivalence will break the idea that the EU is a regulatory superpower so it's better for them to give it and hold onto the pretence.
I think the next year or so is going to be a chastening experience for European countries hoping to pick up the scraps.
I think that's overdoing it, especially as if more people are working from home, the fact that Frankfurt hasn't one single decent restaurant will matter less.
I never thought London would "lose" its dominance. But I can say that as recently as this morning I am aware of a contract not given to a UK firm by an EU institution because of data and infrastructure located outside the EU issues.
More Or Less starting on Radio 4, talking about the progress of the vaccination programme.
Suggesting deaths won't significantly reduce until March, and the reduction in ICU admissions will be small, as most ICU admissions are younger people
Yep - seems likely. Only when over 45 have been vaccinated plus a fortnight will the hospitalisation really drop off. In reality lockdown is here until mid march I suspect, if not a bit later.
It doesn't matter where it comes from. What matters is what the voting public now thinks. It is not in the gift of a government to make a promise over the heads of future voters.
I'm sure I observed a debate about where it came from no yesterdays thread.
I see the Times has splashed on the stuttering vaccination numbers.
Seems I was right to flag it after all.
Apparently so, though people did say to see where we were this week to see if we were on track. So far it does appear the initial acceleration has been halted.
I would be cautious reading anything into a couple of days. There is a reason that 7 days averaging has become popular in stats, of late.
There have been three days running where we have undershot by a fair chalk. I think it’s very unlikely that we catch that up in what remains of this week.
It’s not good enough. I called it. I was attacked for it.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Oh absolutely. Its not an anti-vax warning, its an anti-cocking about warning.
The problem with all these stories is that because we understand how these things work we read the story one way.
It's however very likely that a lot of people will not understand the issues and will read it a very different way and then use social media to amplifier this story for their own ends.
See 5g and the idea that the vaccine has a chip in it as other examples.
tbf no one understands the issues of single jab efficacy.
Its inspiring and all, but I feel like his overcoming his stutter is the only thing I know about the man it comes up so much.
I hate this sort of story because they suggest that those with severe and intractable stutters just haven't tried hard enough. I used to stutter a bit and to be unusually short for my age, and to be mocked for both. I now don't stutter and am 6' tall, not in either case through any moral excellence on my part. It just happened.
I do not want to do a @Charles or @MarqueeMark here but I was present on an occasion when someone was trying to speak to The Queen about something and they had a severe stutter (nothing coming out rather than broken speech). After some agonising moments a colleague of this person interrupted by saying "Your Majesty, what he's trying to say..."
The Queen turned on him, furious, and snapped "leave him alone - he is doing perfectly well" and we all waited until the guy managed to say what he had to say.
Interesting - it occurs to me that attitude would be because of her farther.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Yup. Far, far to much of this on PB, which should know better.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Yep. According to one report or another on single jab efficacy (Pfizer-related) this accounted for the relatively high Covid incidence ofter Jab No.1. 4-5 days after it was administered people developed Covid. 14-21 days after the incidence/efficacy was much lower/higher (80-90% IIRC).
They are seeing a lot of infection is the first couple of weeks after the first shot (which is to be expected), but also quite a lot after that. I suspect the 80-90% is if you look at younger populations.
yes good point - confirms my point to @eek that because the govt (for very understandable reasons, blah, blah) has gone off book, we are in no mans land and we simply don't know about single jab efficacy.
I suppose the message "we are delaying your jab and so instead of three more weeks of risk you have three more months of risk" is not one that Boris wanted to deliver.
That is the wrath of a veangeful God, lashing out against inane consumerism.
(He's also secretly looking forward to the law suit....)
The more I see of stuff like Goop and Trumpism and the rest, the more I come to the Marxist view of organised religion.
It is the opiate of the masses. But, I think, it may be a good thing.
I am an atheist - not the ranting kind, such a s Dawkins - just don't believe.
But it seems to me, more and more, that organised religion had the function of controlling the belief set of the very large number of people who need such beliefs.
Without that organisation, they don't sit around discussing refinements to utilitarianism, as atheists.
They invent their own religions. Which involves repeating all the mistakes from previous attempts.
It must be possible to establish an evolutionary case - at least in more warlike times - for the survival benefirs of false beliefs that nevertheless bind communities together, and make it easier for older powerful men to persuade younger men, and their mothers, to sacrifice themselves in war.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Oh absolutely. Its not an anti-vax warning, its an anti-cocking about warning.
The problem with all these stories is that because we understand how these things work we read the story one way.
It's however very likely that a lot of people will not understand the issues and will read it a very different way and then use social media to amplifier this story for their own ends.
See 5g and the idea that the vaccine has a chip in it as other examples.
tbf no one understands the issues of single jab efficacy.
Was that anything to do with what I was saying?
Or are you trying to imply that having the jab when infected makes things worse?
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
The Government has done a terrible job of commuincating that protection only kicks in after about 2 weeks. As soon as my wife gets her vaccine (she's on the ECV list) we'll be shutting up shop at home for 14 days
I couldn't work out from the data whether it really was 10-14 days.
In the released data it looked to me like it was 10-14 days before the number of people showing symptoms and testing positive started to drop.
It takes several days before symptoms appear, so that might imply it is as few as 3-7 days after vaccination that the transmission rate changes.
I see the Times has splashed on the stuttering vaccination numbers.
Seems I was right to flag it after all.
Apparently so, though people did say to see where we were this week to see if we were on track. So far it does appear the initial acceleration has been halted.
I would be cautious reading anything into a couple of days. There is a reason that 7 days averaging has become popular in stats, of late.
There have been three days running where we have undershot by a fair chalk. I think it’s very unlikely that we catch that up in what remains of this week.
It’s not good enough. I called it. I was attacked for it.
But I’m probably going to be proved right.
Easy there. In the T20 analogy, the first 6 overs with only two fields out are gone, now the spinner is on and there are boundary riders everywhere - the rate drops. The target is still the same. Lets see where we are (a) by this weekend and (b) 15th Feb. Its unrealistic to expect an ever increasing number, plus we have just had the first weekend since the ramp up started.
Elliott leaves HK, staff primarily transferred to their London office which will handle Asia. Some go to Tokyo.
Paris or Frankfurt didn't even figure. Odd that. Lol.
Do they have an office in FFT/Paris?!
Park St so much more civilised.
It's more the point that London, IMO, is going to be the like for like replacement to HK for Asia investment and companies will just deal with the timezone issues as they arise. Paris and Frankfurt aren't going to figure in this at all and to my mind if the EU tries to cut London off they simply isolate themselves rather than us.
Our regulatory guy has pointed out on a number of occasions that the EU not giving the UK equivalence will break the idea that the EU is a regulatory superpower so it's better for them to give it and hold onto the pretence.
I think the next year or so is going to be a chastening experience for European countries hoping to pick up the scraps.
I think that's overdoing it, especially as if more people are working from home, the fact that Frankfurt hasn't one single decent restaurant will matter less.
I never thought London would "lose" its dominance. But I can say that as recently as this morning I am aware of a contract not given to a UK firm by an EU institution because of data and infrastructure located outside the EU issues.
I think WFH is massively overdone. Anecdotally our lot can't wait to be back in office, people are missing the buzz of working in a great city. Especially now that we're on Liverpool Street instead of in vintner's place. Frankfurt being boring will always be a drag on its ability to attract people and the German tax system will continue to plague the minds of everyone who has ever had to deal with it.
That's a shame, though hopefully an isolated issue. Onwards and upwards, that's what I always say.
Yep. The suggestion is that if other countries knocked down their assumed health and education contribution to GDP, they'd be down at a similar 20% fall to our own.
Its inspiring and all, but I feel like his overcoming his stutter is the only thing I know about the man it comes up so much.
I hate this sort of story because they suggest that those with severe and intractable stutters just haven't tried hard enough. I used to stutter a bit and to be unusually short for my age, and to be mocked for both. I now don't stutter and am 6' tall, not in either case through any moral excellence on my part. It just happened.
I do not want to do a @Charles or @MarqueeMark here but I was present on an occasion when someone was trying to speak to The Queen about something and they had a severe stutter (nothing coming out rather than broken speech). After some agonising moments a colleague of this person interrupted by saying "Your Majesty, what he's trying to say..."
The Queen turned on him, furious, and snapped "leave him alone - he is doing perfectly well" and we all waited until the guy managed to say what he had to say.
Interesting - it occurs to me that attitude would be because of her farther.
Elliott leaves HK, staff primarily transferred to their London office which will handle Asia. Some go to Tokyo.
Paris or Frankfurt didn't even figure. Odd that. Lol.
Do they have an office in FFT/Paris?!
Park St so much more civilised.
It's more the point that London, IMO, is going to be the like for like replacement to HK for Asia investment and companies will just deal with the timezone issues as they arise. Paris and Frankfurt aren't going to figure in this at all and to my mind if the EU tries to cut London off they simply isolate themselves rather than us.
Our regulatory guy has pointed out on a number of occasions that the EU not giving the UK equivalence will break the idea that the EU is a regulatory superpower so it's better for them to give it and hold onto the pretence.
I think the next year or so is going to be a chastening experience for European countries hoping to pick up the scraps.
I think that's overdoing it, especially as if more people are working from home, the fact that Frankfurt hasn't one single decent restaurant will matter less.
I never thought London would "lose" its dominance. But I can say that as recently as this morning I am aware of a contract not given to a UK firm by an EU institution because of data and infrastructure located outside the EU issues.
Yep - we aren't in the EU and we haven't signed the agreements required that would allow us to has to store data that comes from the EU.
This really isn't news. I've spent 3+ years checking where data should be stored and ensuring that the appropriate servers are used (with EU data moved out of the UK, and UK data moved to UK data centres).
R4 demonstrating that both Gove and Mordaunt's claims on fishing rights are false
Are they lying or clueless? Will be quite entertaining to hear Michael Gove tell an industry he literally grew up with that it doesn't know what it is talking about...
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Oh absolutely. Its not an anti-vax warning, its an anti-cocking about warning.
The problem with all these stories is that because we understand how these things work we read the story one way.
It's however very likely that a lot of people will not understand the issues and will read it a very different way and then use social media to amplifier this story for their own ends.
See 5g and the idea that the vaccine has a chip in it as other examples.
tbf no one understands the issues of single jab efficacy.
Was that anything to do with what I was saying?
Or are you trying to imply that having the jab when infected makes things worse?
You said "because we understand how these things work".
I was pointing out that you do not understand how these things work.
More Or Less starting on Radio 4, talking about the progress of the vaccination programme.
Suggesting deaths won't significantly reduce until March, and the reduction in ICU admissions will be small, as most ICU admissions are younger people
Yep - seems likely. Only when over 45 have been vaccinated plus a fortnight will the hospitalisation really drop off. In reality lockdown is here until mid march I suspect, if not a bit later.
The surprising factoid is that about three quarters of ICU admissions are below retirement age, many of them considerably younger. Explaining the scenes in ICU that recently sent our Leon into another panic.
Is it that the elderly die before they get there? Or that hospitals decide it isn't necessary or is less effective to put the very old into ICU?
That was fascinating. One of the big falls in UK GDP has been in government output - how do you measure that? In the UK the ONS measures "how much teaching is done, how many knee & hip replacements etc." - all of which have fallen. In other European countries they measure "how much do we pay teachers, nurses & doctors" - which has stayed flat. If we'd measured the same way as, for example, Spain, GDP would have been higher by 6% - and on a par with our neighbours - but we're nearer the truth than they are - so all this "UK is doing much worse than the rest of Europe" is largely because UK stats are more robust.
We need to know the reason why they weren't closed at that time. Every Tom, Dick and Harry on the Clapham omnibus knew it was the right thing to do.
Simples: 1. We have to leave the EU to take back control of our borders 2. We were still in transition and bound by the EU 3. Therefore we could not close our borders 4. Please ignore all the EU states closing their borders, that is Fake News 5. No, we definitely didn't tell you demonstrable lies about the EU because we knew you were stupid
It doesn't matter where it comes from. What matters is what the voting public now thinks. It is not in the gift of a government to make a promise over the heads of future voters.
It can - as it did in 2019 - say to potential voters "we will not have a vote on this matter again during the term of the next Government." And it was given an 80 seat majority, across the whole of the UK. A UK the Scots chose to remain a part of in 2014.
So why should a tiny subset of those UK voters - those who voted SNP - have the right to override the recently-expressed wishes of the rest?
We need to know the reason why they weren't closed at that time. Every Tom, Dick and Harry on the Clapham omnibus knew it was the right thing to do.
At the time it was said that Shapps persuaded the cabinet while Patel was in favour of much tougher restrictions. In fairness the scientific advice at the time also appeared to argue against border closure ("it's too late now").
Presumably not one Biden will reinstitute, as I imagine it would not be popular with his officials either.
Trumps move seems the equivalent of lowering the official salary 1 day before leaving, as a trap should the successor raise it back.
On the contrary. Though we'll have to see how this holds up in practice.
I Wrote President Obama’s Ethics Plan—Biden’s Is Better https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/19/biden-white-house-ethics-plan-460472 ...The new Biden plan not only fixes what Trump got wrong, it does the same for Obama’s ethics regime. For example, the Biden executive order adds a restriction on so-called golden parachutes—cash bonuses granted to executives as they leave a business to join the government. These windfalls create the perception that an ex-employee may favor her benefactor, and it is about time they ended. The Biden plan does that, restricting exit bonuses and requiring entering officials to certify that they have not accepted other benefits (such as deferred ones) in lieu of such packages. It goes well beyond existing law and is a strong step forward.
The new plan also builds on Obama's in closing the revolving door on the other side of government employment: when employees leave. Federal law imposes a one-year limit on a departing senior official communicating on behalf of clients with the agency where the official worked. In the Obama administration, we extended that to two years, on the theory that an employer might pay an ex-official to do nothing for 12 months, but 24 months is a long time for cold storage. Trump eliminated the Obama extension, farcically declaring that his officials must follow the applicable statute—which they already had to do.
Here too, Biden not only restores the Obama restriction of two years, he goes further. Now not only are officials restricted from representing clients to their former agencies, they are also cordoned off from their peers in the White House itself. This recognizes the reality that senior agency officials engage with the White House constantly and have ties there too, not just at their former agency. This rule will restrict them from using the special access and influence that follows, and they should not be allowed to use it for private gain....
I'm pleasantly surprised. Hopefully Trump has led some to consider their own flaws, even if not worse than his, and inspired them to do better.
Elliott leaves HK, staff primarily transferred to their London office which will handle Asia. Some go to Tokyo.
Paris or Frankfurt didn't even figure. Odd that. Lol.
Do they have an office in FFT/Paris?!
Park St so much more civilised.
It's more the point that London, IMO, is going to be the like for like replacement to HK for Asia investment and companies will just deal with the timezone issues as they arise. Paris and Frankfurt aren't going to figure in this at all and to my mind if the EU tries to cut London off they simply isolate themselves rather than us.
Our regulatory guy has pointed out on a number of occasions that the EU not giving the UK equivalence will break the idea that the EU is a regulatory superpower so it's better for them to give it and hold onto the pretence.
I think the next year or so is going to be a chastening experience for European countries hoping to pick up the scraps.
I think that's overdoing it, especially as if more people are working from home, the fact that Frankfurt hasn't one single decent restaurant will matter less.
I never thought London would "lose" its dominance. But I can say that as recently as this morning I am aware of a contract not given to a UK firm by an EU institution because of data and infrastructure located outside the EU issues.
I think WFH is massively overdone. Anecdotally our lot can't wait to be back in office, people are missing the buzz of working in a great city. Especially now that we're on Liverpool Street instead of in vintner's place. Frankfurt being boring will always be a drag on its ability to attract people and the German tax system will continue to plague the minds of everyone who has ever had to deal with it.
That's a shame, though hopefully an isolated issue. Onwards and upwards, that's what I always say.
I think it varies considerably by age. My anecdote is the woman who (now) lives across the road, who works for a legal firm near Holborn. Her property here was a second home, where she spent her free time as and when she could; just before the first lockdown came in she did a SeanT and fled the capital for the island. She's been working at home, and hardly been back to London since. Her firm has said last autumn that the new remote working arrangements would continue to summer 2021, and just before Christmas has started offering people home working as new permanent arrangements. So she's not intending to return; she says she'll keep the London flat as a second home, but I reckon sooner or later the case for cashing in will see it sold.
Incidentally she went back to North London to take her father - who has also now moved down here from London, at least long-term temporarily - back to get vaccinated, and found that her flat-neighbours have sold up and moved to a farm in Wales.
The Pritster is rocking the whiteboard marker eyebrows on Sky News so she looks permanently surprised. Or maybe she's just seen how many informal immigrants have crossed the Narrow Sea this week.
I never thought London would "lose" its dominance. But I can say that as recently as this morning I am aware of a contract not given to a UK firm by an EU institution because of data and infrastructure located outside the EU issues.
Although we are mainly a US company, we are also implementing new systems in the EU for regulatory reasons.
It doesn't matter where it comes from. What matters is what the voting public now thinks. It is not in the gift of a government to make a promise over the heads of future voters.
It can - as it did in 2019 - say to potential voters "we will not have a vote on this matter again during the term of the next Government." And it was given an 80 seat majority, across the whole of the UK. A UK the Scots chose to remain a part of in 2014.
So why should a tiny subset of those UK voters - those who voted SNP - have the right to override the recently-expressed wishes of the rest?
Because the constitutional future of Scotland is an issue for the Scottish people alone.
That is the wrath of a veangeful God, lashing out against inane consumerism.
(He's also secretly looking forward to the law suit....)
The more I see of stuff like Goop and Trumpism and the rest, the more I come to the Marxist view of organised religion.
It is the opiate of the masses. But, I think, it may be a good thing.
I am an atheist - not the ranting kind, such a s Dawkins - just don't believe.
But it seems to me, more and more, that organised religion had the function of controlling the belief set of the very large number of people who need such beliefs.
Without that organisation, they don't sit around discussing refinements to utilitarianism, as atheists.
They invent their own religions. Which involves repeating all the mistakes from previous attempts.
It must be possible to establish an evolutionary case - at least in more warlike times - for the survival benefirs of false beliefs that nevertheless bind communities together, and make it easier for older powerful men to persuade younger men, and their mothers, to sacrifice themselves in war.
A number of PhDs have been written on the interaction between religion and societal effectiveness. The emphasis is not so much on war, but creating a community that gets everyone co-operating. Lines up peoples minds, as it were.
We need to know the reason why they weren't closed at that time. Every Tom, Dick and Harry on the Clapham omnibus knew it was the right thing to do.
Yes we might have avoided the 0.5% of cases that by then were traceable to international travel.
If we were going to do a New Zealand, the time to do it was in mid-January, but that wouldn't have been politically feasible.
Is the 0.5% based simply the initial detected infection of a person returning from international travel or does it take into account all the subsequent infections that person passed on to others?
We need to know the reason why they weren't closed at that time. Every Tom, Dick and Harry on the Clapham omnibus knew it was the right thing to do.
If we had closed the borders as soon as it was clear infections were coming in from abroad thousands of deaths would have been avoided. Just look at NZ, Australia and Taiwan. So much easier for an island.
In Pox news a friend of mine's OH is ill in bed with Covid. "He's shaking uncontrollably, dripping with sweat, aching from head to toe, a bad cough, no sense of smell or taste, a pounding headache"
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
One of those grotty edge cases where the vaccine was done just after he caught Covid itself.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Oh absolutely. Its not an anti-vax warning, its an anti-cocking about warning.
The problem with all these stories is that because we understand how these things work we read the story one way.
It's however very likely that a lot of people will not understand the issues and will read it a very different way and then use social media to amplifier this story for their own ends.
See 5g and the idea that the vaccine has a chip in it as other examples.
tbf no one understands the issues of single jab efficacy.
Was that anything to do with what I was saying?
Or are you trying to imply that having the jab when infected makes things worse?
You said "because we understand how these things work".
I was pointing out that you do not understand how these things work.
I was talking about how items can be taken out of context and used to spread fake news around the internet - the clue was in the second half of the sentence - we read the story one way - as "grotty news, yep could happen".
The outside world (especially those who have an anti-vax viewpoint to spread) would use the same story as the starting point for another - round of don't take the vaccine stories - look what will happen..
FPT: And here is where I think the Phrase was coined by Alex Salmond in the preface to the White Paper "Scotland's Future", which was published in Nov 2013. Here is that.
I never thought London would "lose" its dominance. But I can say that as recently as this morning I am aware of a contract not given to a UK firm by an EU institution because of data and infrastructure located outside the EU issues.
Although we are mainly a US company, we are also implementing new systems in the EU for regulatory reasons.
We need to know the reason why they weren't closed at that time. Every Tom, Dick and Harry on the Clapham omnibus knew it was the right thing to do.
If we had closed the borders as soon as it was clear infections were coming in from abroad thousands of deaths would have been avoided. Just look at NZ, Australia and Taiwan. So much easier for an island.
I just don't think the country would have been receptive to such pre-emptive action in Jan/Feb/March. Perhaps March after lockdown. Steve Baker et al would have made that 80-seat majority look decidedly flimsy.
More Or Less starting on Radio 4, talking about the progress of the vaccination programme.
Suggesting deaths won't significantly reduce until March, and the reduction in ICU admissions will be small, as most ICU admissions are younger people
Yep - seems likely. Only when over 45 have been vaccinated plus a fortnight will the hospitalisation really drop off. In reality lockdown is here until mid march I suspect, if not a bit later.
The surprising factoid is that about three quarters of ICU admissions are below retirement age, many of them considerably younger. Explaining the scenes in ICU that recently sent our Leon into another panic.
Is it that the elderly die before they get there? Or that hospitals decide it isn't necessary or is less effective to put the very old into ICU?
Surely it's given 2 equally ill patient it's who will benefit most from ICU and is more likely to survive the experience.
We need to know the reason why they weren't closed at that time. Every Tom, Dick and Harry on the Clapham omnibus knew it was the right thing to do.
If we had closed the borders as soon as it was clear infections were coming in from abroad thousands of deaths would have been avoided. Just look at NZ, Australia and Taiwan. So much easier for an island.
Look, we COULD NOT control our own borders until we'd fully left the EU. OK? So don't tell me the EU states shut their borders because that's a Remoaner Lie, and don't tell me we didn't act immediately to close our border once we Took Back Control cos that's also a Remoaner lie.
That is the wrath of a veangeful God, lashing out against inane consumerism.
(He's also secretly looking forward to the law suit....)
The more I see of stuff like Goop and Trumpism and the rest, the more I come to the Marxist view of organised religion.
It is the opiate of the masses. But, I think, it may be a good thing.
I am an atheist - not the ranting kind, such a s Dawkins - just don't believe.
But it seems to me, more and more, that organised religion had the function of controlling the belief set of the very large number of people who need such beliefs.
Without that organisation, they don't sit around discussing refinements to utilitarianism, as atheists.
They invent their own religions. Which involves repeating all the mistakes from previous attempts.
I think you have a point but I disagree on three principles.
1: Yes people make mistakes, but they're their own mistakes. Organised religion too often ends up with people trying to instill their religion on others and essentially excommunicate or ostracise those that disagree. When people believe in something 'mystical' of their own they don't generally try and shove that down the throat of others. 2: Yes people make mistakes, but they're new mistakes from a current benchline of understand. Old entrenched mistakes (which are harder to shift due to 1 above) are often worse because they predate modern understand and thinking. They've come from what we now know to be a flawed premise. 3: Even if people make mistakes, they are learning and thinking freely rather than doing it from an entrenched position of the past. That's a good thing since actually some of what people differ on may not be a mistake - some of what we currently believe might be mistaken - and that permits evolution in human understand in a positive direction.
Being stuck in the past doesn't lead to progress or positive evolution.
R4 demonstrating that both Gove and Mordaunt's claims on fishing rights are false
Are they lying or clueless? Will be quite entertaining to hear Michael Gove tell an industry he literally grew up with that it doesn't know what it is talking about...
I'd like to see a link to the Gove article.
Nice sea shanty though - at least this one was not about butchering the tongue of a slaughtered whale, like the one the R5 presenter innocently enquired about.
Seems the right day to catch up on 'the Trump show' by the BBC - which I missed in the autumn - "what happens when a crazy lunatic person becomes the president", as one of the interviewees put it. The first episode at least is well made, with new anecdotes (such as, one of his aides claim he initially wanted to take the oath of office holding his own book, rather than the bible!)
Elliott leaves HK, staff primarily transferred to their London office which will handle Asia. Some go to Tokyo.
Paris or Frankfurt didn't even figure. Odd that. Lol.
Do they have an office in FFT/Paris?!
Park St so much more civilised.
It's more the point that London, IMO, is going to be the like for like replacement to HK for Asia investment and companies will just deal with the timezone issues as they arise. Paris and Frankfurt aren't going to figure in this at all and to my mind if the EU tries to cut London off they simply isolate themselves rather than us.
Our regulatory guy has pointed out on a number of occasions that the EU not giving the UK equivalence will break the idea that the EU is a regulatory superpower so it's better for them to give it and hold onto the pretence.
I think the next year or so is going to be a chastening experience for European countries hoping to pick up the scraps.
I think that's overdoing it, especially as if more people are working from home, the fact that Frankfurt hasn't one single decent restaurant will matter less.
I never thought London would "lose" its dominance. But I can say that as recently as this morning I am aware of a contract not given to a UK firm by an EU institution because of data and infrastructure located outside the EU issues.
I think WFH is massively overdone. Anecdotally our lot can't wait to be back in office, people are missing the buzz of working in a great city. Especially now that we're on Liverpool Street instead of in vintner's place. Frankfurt being boring will always be a drag on its ability to attract people and the German tax system will continue to plague the minds of everyone who has ever had to deal with it.
That's a shame, though hopefully an isolated issue. Onwards and upwards, that's what I always say.
I think it varies considerably by age. My anecdote is the woman who (now) lives across the road, who works for a legal firm near Holborn. Her property here was a second home, where she spent her free time as and when she could; just before the first lockdown came in she did a SeanT and fled the capital for the island. She's been working at home, and hardly been back to London since. Her firm has said last autumn that the new remote working arrangements would continue to summer 2021, and just before Christmas has started offering people home working as new permanent arrangements. So she's not intending to return; she says she'll keep the London flat as a second home, but I reckon sooner or later the case for cashing in will see it sold.
Incidentally she went back to North London to take her father - who has also now moved down here from London, at least long-term temporarily - back to get vaccinated, and found that her flat-neighbours have sold up and moved to a farm in Wales.
I think it is age - but related to life phase.
If you have school age children, a stable marriage etc. moving to the sticks makes a lot of sense. If you can get around the commuting/job issues. Cheaper housing and more space at the same time, better/cheaper schools.
If you are single, starting out in the world etc, a house share, a moderate night bus ride away from the nightclubs, is practically mandatory.
That is the wrath of a veangeful God, lashing out against inane consumerism.
(He's also secretly looking forward to the law suit....)
The more I see of stuff like Goop and Trumpism and the rest, the more I come to the Marxist view of organised religion.
It is the opiate of the masses. But, I think, it may be a good thing.
I am an atheist - not the ranting kind, such a s Dawkins - just don't believe.
But it seems to me, more and more, that organised religion had the function of controlling the belief set of the very large number of people who need such beliefs.
Without that organisation, they don't sit around discussing refinements to utilitarianism, as atheists.
They invent their own religions. Which involves repeating all the mistakes from previous attempts.
I think you have a point but I disagree on three principles.
1: Yes people make mistakes, but they're their own mistakes. Organised religion too often ends up with people trying to instill their religion on others and essentially excommunicate or ostracise those that disagree. When people believe in something 'mystical' of their own they don't generally try and shove that down the throat of others. 2: Yes people make mistakes, but they're new mistakes from a current benchline of understand. Old entrenched mistakes (which are harder to shift due to 1 above) are often worse because they predate modern understand and thinking. They've come from what we now know to be a flawed premise. 3: Even if people make mistakes, they are learning and thinking freely rather than doing it from an entrenched position of the past. That's a good thing since actually some of what people differ on may not be a mistake - some of what we currently believe might be mistaken - and that permits evolution in human understand in a positive direction.
Being stuck in the past doesn't lead to progress or positive evolution.
For sure. You can map out the course of what most people would see as human progress and invention as the story of how religion lost its grip, with the centre of progress transferring from the Islamic world to the Mediterranean and thence to northern Europe accordingly.
We need to know the reason why they weren't closed at that time. Every Tom, Dick and Harry on the Clapham omnibus knew it was the right thing to do.
If we had closed the borders as soon as it was clear infections were coming in from abroad thousands of deaths would have been avoided. Just look at NZ, Australia and Taiwan. So much easier for an island.
I just don't think the country would have been receptive to such pre-emptive action in Jan/Feb/March. Perhaps March after lockdown. Steve Baker et al would have made that 80-seat majority look decidedly flimsy.
I think closing the borders would have got majority support among Tory MPs, easily. If it's the scientists who said don't close them then they're responsible for the second wave along with Boris. It was completely avoidable.
More Or Less starting on Radio 4, talking about the progress of the vaccination programme.
Suggesting deaths won't significantly reduce until March, and the reduction in ICU admissions will be small, as most ICU admissions are younger people
Yep - seems likely. Only when over 45 have been vaccinated plus a fortnight will the hospitalisation really drop off. In reality lockdown is here until mid march I suspect, if not a bit later.
The surprising factoid is that about three quarters of ICU admissions are below retirement age, many of them considerably younger. Explaining the scenes in ICU that recently sent our Leon into another panic.
Is it that the elderly die before they get there? Or that hospitals decide it isn't necessary or is less effective to put the very old into ICU?
Surely it's given 2 equally ill patient it's who will benefit most from ICU and is more likely to survive the experience.
The former would suggest a lot of denial of intensive care, and we haven't reached that point (at least not in a widespread way). The latter is more likely the explanation - Foxy can surely resolve?
Comments
There are six main sites and a number of pop-up temporary sites which will be decommissioned and consolidated into the permanent sites once steady-state has been reached.
The leases for all sites are for five years because in the long-term the Government want to digitise the customs border as much as possible, and don't yet know exactly which 2-4 sites the essential customs inspections will need to be consolidated upon, as it's dependent upon how trade and traffic patterns develop.
So they're retaining some flexibility for now.
I expect Biden to be a crushing disappointment, and to further accentuate America's internal divisions rather than heal them, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
This enables Biden to get on with his agenda, Trump gets his just deserts and President Biden doesn't look vengeful.
In addition, the crimes that Trump will get charged with at state level are the kind of things that could help deflate Trumpism.
He received the first dose of the vaccine as he is a social worker operating in the care sector. Vaccinated Wednesday, symptomatic Sunday, tested positive late Sunday. Others in his office also in the same boat.
Awful news but you need to be careful that stories like that aren't read the wrong way and people avoid being vaccinated because of it.
Paris or Frankfurt didn't even figure. Odd that. Lol.
Trumps move seems the equivalent of lowering the official salary 1 day before leaving, as a trap should the successor raise it back.
Park St so much more civilised.
It is not in the gift of a government to make a promise over the heads of future voters.
The Israel curve is interesting.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&country=~ISR®ion=World
Though we'll have to see how this holds up in practice.
I Wrote President Obama’s Ethics Plan—Biden’s Is Better
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/01/19/biden-white-house-ethics-plan-460472
...The new Biden plan not only fixes what Trump got wrong, it does the same for Obama’s ethics regime. For example, the Biden executive order adds a restriction on so-called golden parachutes—cash bonuses granted to executives as they leave a business to join the government. These windfalls create the perception that an ex-employee may favor her benefactor, and it is about time they ended. The Biden plan does that, restricting exit bonuses and requiring entering officials to certify that they have not accepted other benefits (such as deferred ones) in lieu of such packages. It goes well beyond existing law and is a strong step forward.
The new plan also builds on Obama's in closing the revolving door on the other side of government employment: when employees leave. Federal law imposes a one-year limit on a departing senior official communicating on behalf of clients with the agency where the official worked. In the Obama administration, we extended that to two years, on the theory that an employer might pay an ex-official to do nothing for 12 months, but 24 months is a long time for cold storage. Trump eliminated the Obama extension, farcically declaring that his officials must follow the applicable statute—which they already had to do.
Here too, Biden not only restores the Obama restriction of two years, he goes further. Now not only are officials restricted from representing clients to their former agencies, they are also cordoned off from their peers in the White House itself. This recognizes the reality that senior agency officials engage with the White House constantly and have ties there too, not just at their former agency. This rule will restrict them from using the special access and influence that follows, and they should not be allowed to use it for private gain....
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1351822347234398209
The Queen turned on him, furious, and snapped "leave him alone - he is doing perfectly well" and we all waited until the guy managed to say what he had to say.
Our regulatory guy has pointed out on a number of occasions that the EU not giving the UK equivalence will break the idea that the EU is a regulatory superpower so it's better for them to give it and hold onto the pretence.
I think the next year or so is going to be a chastening experience for European countries hoping to pick up the scraps.
The case is that measurements are done differently in the public sector between countries.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm
At about 14 minutes in.
It's however very likely that a lot of people will not understand the issues and will read it a very different way and then use social media to amplifier this story for their own ends.
See 5g and the idea that the vaccine has a chip in it as other examples.
Thousands of Israelis Tested Positive for Coronavirus After First Vaccine Shot
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/thousands-of-israelis-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-after-first-vaccine-shot-1.9462478
They are seeing a lot of infection is the first couple of weeks after the first shot (which is to be expected), but also quite a lot after that.
I suspect the 80-90% is if you look at younger populations.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55690001
I never thought London would "lose" its dominance. But I can say that as recently as this morning I am aware of a contract not given to a UK firm by an EU institution because of data and infrastructure located outside the EU issues.
Just being helpful
It’s not good enough. I called it. I was attacked for it.
But I’m probably going to be proved right.
Now make way for Joe.
I suppose the message "we are delaying your jab and so instead of three more weeks of risk you have three more months of risk" is not one that Boris wanted to deliver.
Or are you trying to imply that having the jab when infected makes things worse?
In the released data it looked to me like it was 10-14 days before the number of people showing symptoms and testing positive started to drop.
It takes several days before symptoms appear, so that might imply it is as few as 3-7 days after vaccination that the transmission rate changes.
Still, not work the gamble.
That's a shame, though hopefully an isolated issue. Onwards and upwards, that's what I always say.
This really isn't news. I've spent 3+ years checking where data should be stored and ensuring that the appropriate servers are used (with EU data moved out of the UK, and UK data moved to UK data centres).
I was pointing out that you do not understand how these things work.
Is it that the elderly die before they get there? Or that hospitals decide it isn't necessary or is less effective to put the very old into ICU?
1. We have to leave the EU to take back control of our borders
2. We were still in transition and bound by the EU
3. Therefore we could not close our borders
4. Please ignore all the EU states closing their borders, that is Fake News
5. No, we definitely didn't tell you demonstrable lies about the EU because we knew you were stupid
If we were going to do a New Zealand, the time to do it was in mid-January, but that wouldn't have been politically feasible.
So why should a tiny subset of those UK voters - those who voted SNP - have the right to override the recently-expressed wishes of the rest?
At the time it was said that Shapps persuaded the cabinet while Patel was in favour of much tougher restrictions. In fairness the scientific advice at the time also appeared to argue against border closure ("it's too late now").
Incidentally she went back to North London to take her father - who has also now moved down here from London, at least long-term temporarily - back to get vaccinated, and found that her flat-neighbours have sold up and moved to a farm in Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55730459
Brussels, not Leeds.
Posting on internet forums still considered safe though.
The outside world (especially those who have an anti-vax viewpoint to spread) would use the same story as the starting point for another - round of don't take the vaccine stories - look what will happen..
1: Yes people make mistakes, but they're their own mistakes. Organised religion too often ends up with people trying to instill their religion on others and essentially excommunicate or ostracise those that disagree. When people believe in something 'mystical' of their own they don't generally try and shove that down the throat of others.
2: Yes people make mistakes, but they're new mistakes from a current benchline of understand. Old entrenched mistakes (which are harder to shift due to 1 above) are often worse because they predate modern understand and thinking. They've come from what we now know to be a flawed premise.
3: Even if people make mistakes, they are learning and thinking freely rather than doing it from an entrenched position of the past. That's a good thing since actually some of what people differ on may not be a mistake - some of what we currently believe might be mistaken - and that permits evolution in human understand in a positive direction.
Being stuck in the past doesn't lead to progress or positive evolution.
Nice sea shanty though - at least this one was not about butchering the tongue of a slaughtered whale, like the one the R5 presenter innocently enquired about.
If you have school age children, a stable marriage etc. moving to the sticks makes a lot of sense. If you can get around the commuting/job issues. Cheaper housing and more space at the same time, better/cheaper schools.
If you are single, starting out in the world etc, a house share, a moderate night bus ride away from the nightclubs, is practically mandatory.