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Two things we don’t yet know – politicalbetting.com

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  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Pagan2 said:

    Congratulations you just hit the poorer people in even harder. As a renter I know that investment tax is getting passed on to me in my rent and under your scheme I will also pay council tax for the home I live in. Talk about the double whammy
    The policy would reduce property prices so hopefully then you could aspire to buy...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    MattW said:

    You stand to gain more from abolition of the Scottish SDLT tax version if they follow suit in a manner slightly different (obviously), as they hiked it up a bit before.

    Numbers of friends building houses in Scotlandshire tell me that selling anything large and highlands has been a bit of a bloodbath for the last few years.

    But that is anecdata.
    council tax at present is near 3K I think, I don't ever look at it as it makes me angry, was 2.5K plus a few years ago, water definitely makes it over 3K, but happy to keep water in public ownership, never grudge paying for that.
    Saying that I cannot believe it will be cut given the riots the last time the Tories tried it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,332
    Mortimer said:

    Lots of boomer estates are going to yuuuuugge, and so tax recoup will increase.
    Ah, you mean from IHT.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,332
    RobD said:

    Interesting, thanks. I was thinking of Germany when I typed that, and just assumed it was similar elsewhere. Is this a hot issue in Germany, too?
    I'd like to know what Romania are doing to get home ownership at over 95%+.

    Even though I'm sure they're not all Charles Church.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    RobD said:

    The claim was regarding the UK's numbers, not those of the constituent parts. Much the same way we aren't looking at Bavaria's numbers, or Catalonia's.
    oh dear Rob you really are digging for Australia now, we are talking countries dear boy, you telling me you do not know the difference between a country and a region of a country. Poor attempt, just admit defeat and stop digging.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,853
    RobD said:

    Interesting, thanks. I was thinking of Germany when I typed that, and just assumed it was similar elsewhere. Is this a hot issue in Germany, too?
    In Germany institutional landlords are much more significant part of the market and if you rent long term, it's not dissimilar from the experience of owning something leasehold in the UK. Property prices generally have been more stable so buy to let as a get rich quick scheme never took off in the same way.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,665
    edited January 2021

    The one ethical argument I can see against equalising the taxes is that there's no liquidity in the house to pay for it. But people already have to pay Council Tax without any liquidity for it already today.

    If it were possible to say that those who don't want to or can't pay the tax see a charge placed on the property for when it is next sold instead, then would that answer concerns? An option that doesn't exist for Council Tax.

    So people who own a home but don't have an income would gain from an immediate abolition of Council Tax and instead when the house is sold and the equity is released then the charge is realised only at that point?

    That deferred point was in the proposal by the Group that came up with the original proposal.
    https://fairershare.org.uk/faq/#how-will-the-ppt-affect-a-pensioner-living-in-an-expensive-home-with-little-or-no-income

    Not sure if Rishi has picked it up.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    My parents, as am I, are ok with paying extra taxes, but I'm worried about the older folk who do not have the retirement income to pay such taxes. There's someone who lives close to us, and wouldn't be able to afford such a change, she really can't downsize because she's had the house adapted for her disability.

    There's plenty of things the government could change that would be affordable to those with decent incomes.
    Far better to charge on household income and use of services but it will never happen.
  • My parents, as am I, are ok with paying extra taxes, but I'm worried about the older folk who do not have the retirement income to pay such taxes. There's someone who lives close to us, and wouldn't be able to afford such a change, she really can't downsize because she's had the house adapted for her disability.

    There's plenty of things the government could change that would be affordable to those with decent incomes.
    So if the charge could be rolled up to sale or death then would that be reasonable?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I'd like to know what Romania are doing to get home ownership at over 95%+.

    Even though I'm sure they're not all Charles Church.
    Cheap property and a huge decline in population since joining the EU.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,665
    malcolmg said:

    council tax at present is near 3K I think, I don't ever look at it as it makes me angry, was 2.5K plus a few years ago, water definitely makes it over 3K, but happy to keep water in public ownership, never grudge paying for that.
    Saying that I cannot believe it will be cut given the riots the last time the Tories tried it.
    It will be very interesting to see how this one goes.

    It certainly looks more likely than other previous ideas.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,811
    edited January 2021

    Yeah derbies have completely lost their venom. Can’t wait to get fans back again,
    I just cannot get into football without the fans. To me it loses far more than other sports.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    MaxPB said:

    It is, IMO, the strongest motivating factor for Tory inclined voters. Don't fuck with people's homes.
    Sometimes, though, you need to do what is right, rather than what is popular.

    And don't forget, this will be a boon to the retired, because it enables them (should they wish) to downsize without ending up paying a massive chunk of change in stamp duty.
  • Yes, exemptions or discounts for those disabled or unable to move would be needed.

    I don't want anyone taxed out of their home, and that's a redline for me.
    I suspect your redline would mean so many exemptions across the country (particularly in London and the South) as to make the policy worthless.
  • Scott_xP said:
    That's the thing being debated tomorrow, isn't it?

    Awks.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    In Germany institutional landlords are much more significant part of the market and if you rent long term, it's not dissimilar from the experience of owning something leasehold in the UK. Property prices generally have been more stable so buy to let as a get rich quick scheme never took off in the same way.
    There's also a lot more regulation of the rental market in Germany, it's very difficult to make very much money from owning a single property and ripping off some poor tenant. The only way to make money there is to build thousands of flats and rent them. It's also why no one bitches about it because the rental market isn't a gigantic rip off.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    rcs1000 said:

    Sometimes, though, you need to do what is right, rather than what is popular.

    And don't forget, this will be a boon to the retired, because it enables them (should they wish) to downsize without ending up paying a massive chunk of change in stamp duty.
    They’ll hate it. There’s no way around that, I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    .
    malcolmg said:

    oh dear Rob you really are digging for Australia now, we are talking countries dear boy, you telling me you do not know the difference between a country and a region of a country. Poor attempt, just admit defeat and stop digging.
    But that's got nothing to do with the claim. The claim was that the UK had the highest death rate in Europe. Carlotta's (and your identical ranking) demonstrated that this was not the case. I fail to see how you have shown the numbers were dodgy.
  • kinabalu said:

    I just cannot get into football without the fans. To me it loses far more than other sports.
    I think its because its a tribal game , a team game based on geography , the players dont really care or have affinity for clubs , to many they are just a high paying employer , bu the fans do care and hence without them it loses all its meaning
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    MattW said:

    You stand to gain more from abolition of the Scottish SDLT tax version if they follow suit in a manner slightly different (obviously), as they hiked it up a bit before.

    Numbers of friends building houses in Scotlandshire tell me that selling anything large and highlands has been a bit of a bloodbath for the last few years.

    But that is anecdata.
    Matt, should have said , without knowing the tax limit having not moved house in recent years, I think the tax is set at a level that only catches high value (for Scotland) houses. It is pretty cheap at lower end.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    rcs1000 said:

    Sometimes, though, you need to do what is right, rather than what is popular.

    And don't forget, this will be a boon to the retired, because it enables them (should they wish) to downsize without ending up paying a massive chunk of change in stamp duty.
    We have 4.5m homes owned by private landlords in this country, target that property at a higher rate. Taxing primary residences for wealth taxes knowing that they can't be worked for income is morally wrong, regardless of whatever economic or social benefits it might bring.
  • Not sure if this has been linked to today yet but this is a really thoughtful, well balanced and thought provoking article.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/17/proud-to-be-english-how-we-can-shape-a-progressive-patriotism

    "In parts of the left, there is an unattractive blind spot that misses the importance of collective attachment to an inherited landscape, both physical and emotional. That landscape is not immutable but it shapes a sense of belonging and context. For many Leave voters, particularly those who have traditionally voted Labour, the emotional landscape of “England” has offered a way to express communal values neglected during 30 years of excessive individualism, licensed by both left and right."
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,665
    malcolmg said:

    Matt, should have said , without knowing the tax limit having not moved house in recent years, I think the tax is set at a level that only catches high value (for Scotland) houses. It is pretty cheap at lower end.
    Cheers, Malc.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Flanders and Wallonia. They even have different languages.
    When were they last countries then.........
    The Flemish Region of Belgium (or Flanders) is a Dutch-speaking area in the country's north, and one of 3 Belgian regions
    Wallonia is the French-speaking region of southern Belgium
  • I suspect your redline would mean so many exemptions across the country (particularly in London and the South) as to make the policy worthless.
    No need for any exceptions if you just have a simple opt out with a charge attached. For cashflow the government has no interest and is printing it's deficit in the short term anyway so it can accrue the deferred payments and then get them in the future when it is affordable.

    Short term almost everyone would see Council Tax abolished and have an immediate cashflow benefit. Cashflow is the lifeblood of the economy, so improving cashflow should improve the economy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    MaxPB said:

    We have 4.5m homes owned by private landlords in this country, target that property at a higher rate. Taxing primary residences for wealth taxes knowing that they can't be worked for income is morally wrong, regardless of whatever economic or social benefits it might bring.
    We need rent controls and to make it less attractive to be a private landlord
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    edited January 2021
    Anyway, dinner beckons, fresh tagliatelle with a garlic, mushroom, pancetta and butter sauce topped with fresh parsley and a nice bottle of Nero d'Avola to go with it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    RobD said:

    .

    But that's got nothing to do with the claim. The claim was that the UK had the highest death rate in Europe. Carlotta's (and your identical ranking) demonstrated that this was not the case. I fail to see how you have shown the numbers were dodgy.
    I just said her numbers were dodgy and they appear so , using UK as one block and excluding San Marino for two examples make it look better than it is
  • ping said:

    They’ll hate it. There’s no way around that, I think.
    Deferral is the way to ensure they shouldn't hate it. They see potentially Council Tax abolished with no replacement payable in their lifetime unless they move, and there's no SDLT when they move.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,665
    edited January 2021
    Half past seven and time for tea.

    Ooops. Dinner.

    Really interesting debate - thanks, all.
  • MaxPB said:

    We have 4.5m homes owned by private landlords in this country, target that property at a higher rate. Taxing primary residences for wealth taxes knowing that they can't be worked for income is morally wrong, regardless of whatever economic or social benefits it might bring.
    What if the charge is deferred until the wealth is realised, at sale or death?

    We currently tax people property taxes regardless of affordability with no option for deferral.
  • malcolmg said:

    When were they last countries then.........
    The Flemish Region of Belgium (or Flanders) is a Dutch-speaking area in the country's north, and one of 3 Belgian regions
    Wallonia is the French-speaking region of southern Belgium
    Scotland is an English speaking region in the North of the United Kingdom.

    Wallonia has been part of Belgium since 1830, rather less time than Scotland has been part of the UK.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It doesn't seem to answer either who would pay it, or how property value would be determined.

    I believe for instance in America the owner of the property pays the tax as opposed to the tenants.
    The owner is liable although they try to pass the cost along
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    Andy_JS said:

    You could argue it's not fair how people who happen to live in London have experienced such a big bonus in terms of the value of their property over the last 40 years or so compared to elsewhere in the UK.

    Maybe move to Ayrshire where the property is cheaper but you may encounter some odd, unfriendly people! :lol:
    I resemble that remark!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,853
    Ken Livingstone on how the EHRC report is a conspiracy to undermine socialism with false allegations of antisemitism...

    https://twitter.com/derbychrisw/status/1350880572755873801?s=21
  • MaxPB said:

    We have 4.5m homes owned by private landlords in this country, target that property at a higher rate. Taxing primary residences for wealth taxes knowing that they can't be worked for income is morally wrong, regardless of whatever economic or social benefits it might bring.
    The problem is that those private landlords are not all the same either in the services they are providing or the way in which they behave.

    For example, would you say that a landlord providing long term rented accommodation to someone as their main home should be treated in the same way for taxation purposes as one who is renting to students in a university town on what can only ever be a short term basis? It seems to me that the most likely result of increasing taxes on the latter sector would be to reduce the available amount of rented accommodation for students and so drive up costs. I have to say this is in my mind at the moment as, unlike when I was at university living in places that should have been condemned, I have been extremely impressed with the landlord of my daughters property.
  • Ken Livingstone on how the EHRC report is a conspiracy to undermine socialism with false allegations of antisemitism...

    https://twitter.com/derbychrisw/status/1350880572755873801?s=21

    When will he bring up Hitler?
  • MaxPB said:

    It's definitely true, I've seen it happen among loads of my friends. They all talked fluent lefty for years voted for Chaos with Ed in 2015, flirted with Jez in 2017 but in 2019 when the chips were down they all voted for Boris because, and I can quote one of them "he won't hound me out of my home with taxes". What the government should be doing is attacking the private rental sector with large capital taxes to force landlords to sell existing property, Osborne made a really good start on that, Rishi is flunking it at the moment by burdening owner occupiers with a tax that will inevitable rise over time as it will be seen as an easy source of cash by future governments.
    Though I do NOT agree with anti-Labour rant portion of above, you DO make a good point re: danger of taxes "seen as an easy source of cash by future goverments".

    Here in WA State (aka God's Country) despite our reputation for progressivism, our state tax structure is HIGHLY regressive, due to fact that we have no state income tax. Instead, state revenue comes mostly from property, sales taxes, license & other user fees. (In contrast, our Pacific Northwest neighbor Oregon has no sales tax, but does have state income tax.) In addition to being regressive, the WA State tax system is unstable, because while revenues can go up impressively during boom times, when recessions or worse roll around, revenues plummet at just the time that demands on state spending start rising.

    Anyway, one device that WA state legislators relied upon for years to generate revenue was car license tab fees. Which started out pretty cheap but were jacked up session after session, budget after budget. Until they reached the point that car owners really started to feel the pinch, especially people buying very expensive cars AND less affluent folks for whom car tabs were a BIG bite out of their earnings or fixed incomes.

    Upshot was that in 1999 an initiative campaign was launched with strong Republican backing to limit car tabs to $35. Besides launching the career of Tim Eyman the WA State Initiative King (now facing massive legal jeopardy in state court for subsequent frauds & related crimes both alleged and already proven).

    Voters approved this ballot measure, and after it was overturned by state supreme court, voters re-passed it, and state legislature enacted it on their own, at least until the next fiscal emergency. Created a constant issue for the GOP to bash the Democrats with.

    The voting pattern on this & subsequent ballot measures was interesting. From precinct returns was clear that, as expected, strongly Republican voters for whom anti-tax is a matra voted for capping car tab fees, while progressive, pro-tax Democrats voted against.

    But for voters more toward the middle, the dynamic was quite different. With higher-income voters tending to vote against the cap, on the grounds that it really wasn't that big of a deal (for them) and the state really did need the money. Whereas lower-income voters, even those inclined to support Democratic candidates, were strongly inclined to vote for the tab cap, on the grounds that it WAS a big deal (for them) and that they had NOT benefited as much as the high-rent crowd from economic boom times.
  • Ken Livingstone on how the EHRC report is a conspiracy to undermine socialism with false allegations of antisemitism...

    https://twitter.com/derbychrisw/status/1350880572755873801?s=21

    I love having a nosy at people's book shelves on these type of lockdown videos . Always get frustrated when I cannot read the titles!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557
    MaxPB said:

    Anyway, dinner beckons, fresh tagliatelle with a garlic, mushroom, pancetta and butter sauce topped with fresh parsley and a nice bottle of Nero d'Avola to go with it.

    Slow-cooked leg of lamb here.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    I resemble that remark!
    Although to be fair it was aimed at another poster who lives in the area :lol:
  • MaxPB said:

    Anyway, dinner beckons, fresh tagliatelle with a garlic, mushroom, pancetta and butter sauce topped with fresh parsley and a nice bottle of Nero d'Avola to go with it.

    I thought in Brexit Britain all such food had become unavailable?
  • I love having a nosy at people's book shelves on these type of lockdown videos . Always get frustrated when I cannot read the titles!
    London Poverty Maps and Past Masters (Beatles book?) are the only two I can make out..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    Anyway, dinner beckons, fresh tagliatelle with a garlic, mushroom, pancetta and butter sauce topped with fresh parsley and a nice bottle of Nero d'Avola to go with it.

    Very good!
  • London Poverty Maps and Past Masters (Beatles book?) are the only two I can make out..
    Didn't see Tony Blair's A Journey !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    malcolmg said:

    I just said her numbers were dodgy and they appear so , using UK as one block and excluding San Marino for two examples make it look better than it is
    They are not dodgy, in fact the numbers are from exactly the same source!
  • London Poverty Maps and Past Masters (Beatles book?) are the only two I can make out..
    And I think one called Mesopotamia
  • I love having a nosy at people's book shelves on these type of lockdown videos . Always get frustrated when I cannot read the titles!
    I presume lots of books relating to alternative histories of WW2....
  • malcolmg said:

    When were they last countries then.........
    The Flemish Region of Belgium (or Flanders) is a Dutch-speaking area in the country's north, and one of 3 Belgian regions
    Wallonia is the French-speaking region of southern Belgium
    Well most of the regions of Germany and Italy were independent countries far more recently than Scotland was.
  • Charles said:

    The owner is liable although they try to pass the cost along
    Speaking as a US renter, would have to say they are pretty dogonne good at it!

    One consideration for lower-rent rental properties, is NOT jacking up the tax bill too high, because it is the tenants who will end up paying the vigorish. Though reckon a sensible tax AND social policy tries to balance that out via tax credits and other offsets?
  • London Poverty Maps and Past Masters (Beatles book?) are the only two I can make out..
    Actually looks like it's Past Worlds
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/749890.Past_Worlds
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I think its because its a tribal game , a team game based on geography , the players dont really care or have affinity for clubs , to many they are just a high paying employer , bu the fans do care and hence without them it loses all its meaning
    I tend to agree, but aren’t all team games based on geography to some extent?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    You'd need a sizeable implementation period before it could kick in. 3-5 years minimum. Allow people to redesign their lives without it causing craziness in the property market.
    Use the last purchase price if in the last 10 years with an annual CPI adjustment.

    If last purchase price more than 10 years ago have a 10 year phase in to a revaluation.

    Have a rebate / offset for stamp duty paid in last 10 years
  • I tend to agree, but aren’t all team games based on geography to some extent?
    https://twitter.com/mixedknuts/status/1350887965090852864?s=19
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,321

    I presume lots of books relating to alternative histories of WW2....
    ...like The Churchill Factor?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Typical tweet at the moment regarding Phil Spector.

    https://twitter.com/iamdavidbeckett/status/1350849270073667588
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I wish, last time I was valued it was something like £1.2 million in 2013.
    So about 1.7 million now according to that there nation wide.
  • Actually looks like it's Past Worlds
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/749890.Past_Worlds
    He's also got The Complete Book Of World Facts, two atlas books (one Readers Digest, Times) and The Earth From The Air
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,665

    Actually looks like it's Past Worlds
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/749890.Past_Worlds
    At least he hasn't put "Jewish Plot" in there afaics.

    Speaking as a US renter, would have to say they are pretty dogonne good at it!

    One consideration for lower-rent rental properties, is NOT jacking up the tax bill too high, because it is the tenants who will end up paying the vigorish. Though reckon a sensible tax AND social policy tries to balance that out via tax credits and other offsets?
    Owner is already ultimately liable for CT, although further down on the list in the Act than the Occupier.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    A flat percentage of e.g.0.48% is unrealistic due to the wide variation in house prices. However it would be manna from heaven for Mail and Express headline writers. “Labour controlled Blackburn Council charge 3% council tax whilst Conservative controlled Waverley charge 0.3%”
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    malcolmg said:

    Name me any other multiple countries rolled up into one.
    Each German states is a "Land" which translates exactly into the same multiple meanings as "country" in English.
    Largest sub-unit of a nation state Eg. UK/Wales and Germany/Bavaria
    Another word for nation State E.g. Poland and Irland
    A rural area Eg. In the country and auf dem Land.
  • I resemble that remark!
    When I eventually retire, I plan to move to Largs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited January 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Typical tweet at the moment regarding Phil Spector.

    https://twitter.com/iamdavidbeckett/status/1350849270073667588

    They have changed it to "pop producer jailed for murder dies", which is a bit of an odd way of saying it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Slow-cooked leg of lamb here.
    Stovies, pickled beetroot and cold pheasant here.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    When I eventually retire, I plan to move to Largs.
    You will bring the average age of the population down by 10 years!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,665

    We need rent controls and to make it less attractive to be a private landlord
    The oldest mistake in the book.

    Reduce supply whilst demand is continued to be high, and you get a slum situation.

    Happened last time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    They have changed it to "pop producer jailed for murder dies", which is a bit of an odd way of saying it.
    "Pop producer and convicted murderer dies", maybe? Although that might suggest a joint obituary.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,811

    Slow-cooked leg of lamb here.
    For me, bowl of chilli with crackers crumbled in. Like Lieutenant Columbo. And no booze. Banana milkshake.
  • They have changed it to "pop producer jailed for murder dies", which is a bit of an odd way of saying it.
    Does it mention his very serious head injury in 1974 that almost certainly turned him into the gun waving loon he became?
  • Alistair said:

    Osama Bin Laden, talented but flawed businessman, dies at home.
    Adolf Hitler, talented but flawed painter, dies at work.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    MaxPB said:

    Anyway, dinner beckons, fresh tagliatelle with a garlic, mushroom, pancetta and butter sauce topped with fresh parsley and a nice bottle of Nero d'Avola to go with it.

    Wot No Pineapple?!? ... :wink:

    And on the nosh front my pastry and meat gastronomic delights may expand to the Tories if this new property tax sees the light of day. Parting with almost £50K pa for our London and out of town homes may see me raise my voice a wee bit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    edited January 2021

    Adolf Hitler, talented but flawed painter, dies at work.
    Ghengis Khan, talented but flawed centre-left politician, dies on the job
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Wife at dinner time just now - "they're really trying to suck the fun out of living in this country aren't they".

    Will await my dad's reaction (working class Tory through and through, and a good gauge for how their core voters think IMO) in this evening's video call. I expect it to be extremely negative.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    eristdoof said:

    Each German states is a "Land" which translates exactly into the same multiple meanings as "country" in English.
    Largest sub-unit of a nation state Eg. UK/Wales and Germany/Bavaria
    Another word for nation State E.g. Poland and Irland
    A rural area Eg. In the country and auf dem Land.
    Each of the German states were full-fledged, independent countries up to the later half of the 19th Cent.

    The German Empire kicked off in the Hall of Mirrors in 1870....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    She raised a good point that this is probably the government preparing the ground for a value tax on non-primary residential property because the reaction to this is going to be so negative that hitting a few landlords instead of the whole country will be seen as a good compromise measure.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224

    The problem is that those private landlords are not all the same either in the services they are providing or the way in which they behave.

    For example, would you say that a landlord providing long term rented accommodation to someone as their main home should be treated in the same way for taxation purposes as one who is renting to students in a university town on what can only ever be a short term basis? It seems to me that the most likely result of increasing taxes on the latter sector would be to reduce the available amount of rented accommodation for students and so drive up costs. I have to say this is in my mind at the moment as, unlike when I was at university living in places that should have been condemned, I have been extremely impressed with the landlord of my daughters property.
    I am trying to remember the name of the lady who used to own pretty much all of the rentable accommodation in St Andrews.

    I wonder what happened to her property empire - she was pretty old, and that was 20 years ago...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    MattW said:

    The oldest mistake in the book.

    Reduce supply whilst demand is continued to be high, and you get a slum situation.

    Happened last time.
    My focus would be on removing all tax allowances on property loans except for build to rent
  • Andy_JS said:

    Typical tweet at the moment regarding Phil Spector.

    https://twitter.com/iamdavidbeckett/status/1350849270073667588

    I want to watch Lana's 1985 movie Barbarian Queen
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7z1InsZynI
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Does it mention his very serious head injury in 1974 that almost certainly turned him into the gun waving loon he became?
    Except that Ronnie Spector escaped his clutches in, er 1972, and did not try to get any assets or alimony from the divorce because she feared he would kill her. After all, he’d already bought a gold-plated coffin for her, which he said he’d display her in after killing her if she tried to escape him.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690
    Good evening all. An interesting discussion. To summarise:

    Defund London Homeowners.

    A policy for the 21st Century Tory Party.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited January 2021
    rpjs said:

    Except that Ronnie Spector escaped his clutches in, er 1972, and did not try to get any assets or alimony from the divorce because she feared he would kill her. After all, he’d already bought a gold-plated coffin for her, which he said he’d display her in after killing her if she tried to escape him.
    He was certainly a horrible fucker to Ronnie well before his head injury, but the stories of him pointing his gun at people's heads (like Leonard Cohen, the Ramones and others) all seemed to start after his quite horrific head injury (took over 700 stitches to repair his head)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224
    eek said:

    My focus would be on removing all tax allowances on property loans except for build to rent
    If you want to ease the crisis of property prices in part of the UK... build a fuckton of houses.

    It's an answer that upsets all kinds of people. It is the only policy that will actually work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited January 2021
    MattW said:

    The oldest mistake in the book.

    Reduce supply whilst demand is continued to be high, and you get a slum situation.

    Happened last time.
    Reduce supply? Where are those houses going? They'll either be on the rental market or sold to owner-occupiers.

    If the latter, prices will fall, allowing many who now have to rent, to buy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    You're only getting screwed if you've been getting away with paying a much tinier percentage on bills than anyone else is. Why should taxes be so regressive?

    Why is it acceptable to have a 0.8% tax in the North and a 0.2% tax in the South? Why shouldn't they be flat?
    Because local taxes should be about local services. Redistribution is a matter for national policy

    Because London house prices are too high not taxes too low

    Because a percentage based tax is NOT flat by definition.
  • Good evening all. An interesting discussion. To summarise:

    Defund London Homeowners.

    A policy for the 21st Century Tory Party.

    I've also had an interesting time catching up. The problem as I see it is that far too many people are going to end up poorer with literally any major reform to something that needs major reform.

    Which is why it just rolls along year after year getting increasingly silly.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Donald Trump has told associates he wants his small donors to give $2 billion for the grandest and most expensive presidential library ever built.

    I dread to think what books the ugly golden turd of a building would contain.

    Edit - actually given what a grifter he is, probably no books at all.

    Probably quite small

    The consultancy fees paid to the Trump Organisation for design services would be a marvel
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited January 2021
    On topic (because no-one else is)...

    The Brexit situation is bad, worse than people think it is, and likely to get worse again before it gets better. The big known unknown was how much the new barriers to trade would affect imports and exports to and from the European Union As it turns out, they are in a state of collapse, with big shipping companies refusing to deal with the UK until people can get their paperwork sorted out and with lorries stuck all over the place.

    There is a degree of "teething troubles" in the sense that people weren't prepared for the Tsunami of red tape. Eventually some, but by no means all, businesses will get on top of the bureaucracy, accept it as a new cost of business, and get on with importing and exporting. Others will give up with consequent losses of business and people's jobs.

    There is no point crying over spilt milk - Brexit is done. Equally you can't mop it up unless you acknowledge you spilt it in the first place. The focus now should be on salvaging what we we can of our European business that makes up half our trade. I don't hold out much hope. No-one in politics is in damage limitation mode. Indeed Rishi Sunak is talking about bonfire of red tape, again. He should be trying to make the huge amounts of red tape that he was jointly responsible for burdening business with, kind of work.

    London has seen a Covid-related flight to the suburbs. Meanwhile foreigners have gone home and probably won't return in the same numbers as London loses its international importance post-Brexit. Maybe this is OK. London becomes more of another capital city and less of the pre-eminent world city it was before.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    FF43 said:

    On topic (because no-one else is)...

    The Brexit situation is bad, worse than people think it is, and likely to get worse again before it gets better. The big known unknown was how much the new barriers to trade would affect imports and exports to and from the European Union As it turns out, they are in a state of collapse, with big shipping companies refusing to deal with the UK until people can get their paperwork sorted out and with lorries stuck all over the place.

    There is a degree of "teething troubles" in the sense that people weren't prepared for the Tsunami of red tape. Eventually some, but by no means all, businesses will get on top of the bureaucracy, accept it as a new cost of business, and get on with importing and exporting. Others will give up with consequent losses of business and people's jobs.

    There is no point crying over spilt milk - Brexit is done. Equally you can't mop it up unless you acknowledge you spilt it in the first place. The focus now should be on salvaging what we we can of our European business that makes up half our trade. I don't hold out much hope. No-one in politics is in damage limitation mode. Indeed Rishi Sunak is talking about bonfire of red tape, again. He should be trying to make the huge amounts of red tape that he was jointly responsible for burdening business with, kind of work.

    London has seen a Covid-related flight to the suburbs. Meanwhile foreigners have gone home and probably won't return in the same numbers as London loses its international importance post-Brexit. Maybe this is OK. London becomes more of another capital city and less of the pre-eminent world city it was before.

    Hmm. My forecast is London will bounce back.

    Because London.
  • FF43 said:

    On topic (because no-one else is)...

    The Brexit situation is bad, worse than people think it is, and likely to get worse again before it gets better. The big known unknown was how much the new barriers to trade would affect imports and exports to and from the European Union As it turns out, they are in a state of collapse, with big shipping companies refusing to deal with the UK until people can get their paperwork sorted out and with lorries stuck all over the place.

    There is a degree of "teething troubles" in the sense that people weren't prepared for the Tsunami of red tape. Eventually some, but by no means all, businesses will get on top of the bureaucracy, accept it as a new cost of business, and get on with importing and exporting. Others will give up with consequent losses of business and people's jobs.

    There is no point crying over spilt milk - Brexit is done. Equally you can't mop it up unless you acknowledge you spilt it in the first place. The focus now should be on salvaging what we we can of our European business that makes up half our trade. I don't hold out much hope. No-one in politics is in damage limitation mode. Indeed Rishi Sunak is talking about bonfire of red tape, again. He should be trying to make the huge amounts of red tape that he was jointly responsible for burdening business with, kind of work.

    London has seen a Covid-related flight to the suburbs. Meanwhile foreigners have gone home and probably won't return in the same numbers as London loses its international importance post-Brexit. Maybe this is OK. London becomes more of another capital city and less of the pre-eminent world city it was before.

    The third paragraph is the killer. We aren't going to admit that the milk was deliberately poured down the drain. Sunak can be ordered to go after red tape, because Tory governments remove red tape. Of course the red tape that needs to be cut can't be cut, so instead they will cut workers protections and safety.

    As for London, it is a global city, It will be fine. Its the smaller cities they need to be worrying about. But they won't be.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Hmm. My forecast is London will bounce back.

    Because London.
    It will bounce back from Covid, like lots of other places. But I suspect it won't be the same as before. People aren't by and large in London because they enjoy it. It's because they have some compelling reason to be there. Those reasons are somewhat fading away.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Mortimer said:

    How many times do I need to make this point? Because people's capacity to pay is not a function of the value of their property. Its fine and dandy talking in abstract economic terms in %, but not when it would fundamentally upturn the apple cart of our current economic settlement.

    I don't get generate profits from my business as a % of the value of property. Nor to those who get paid PAYE get paid as a % of their property value. And this is before we get into the logistics of valuation, which are often the downfall of socialist asset taxation.

    Introducing this policy would lead to immediate recession (if not depression), a house price collapse and a Labour government. Well done for implementing the triple whammy of things you don't want to do immediately after a pandemic which has screwed government finances....
    Ballpark a 0.5% annual tax will result in a 10-15% fall in house prices.

    This will be offset by elimination of stamp duty but it only gets up to that for the richest (paying 12%)

    Ergo the rich benefit from this tax change 🤔
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    FF43 said:

    It will bounce back from Covid, like lots of other places. But I suspect it won't be the same as before. People aren't by and large in London because they enjoy it. It's because they have some compelling reason to be there. Those reasons are somewhat fading away.
    We’ll see.

    Think you are wrong about people not enjoying it, although you will find lots of kindred spirits on PB.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    I am trying to remember the name of the lady who used to own pretty much all of the rentable accommodation in St Andrews.

    I wonder what happened to her property empire - she was pretty old, and that was 20 years ago...
    Mrs McAirbnb.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,187
    FF43 said:

    It will bounce back from Covid, like lots of other places. But I suspect it won't be the same as before. People aren't by and large in London because they enjoy it. It's because they have some compelling reason to be there. Those reasons are somewhat fading away.
    More than 20 years ago I had a really bad car crash, lucky not to die. It happened in part because I was driving too fast and was too stressed at the time. In hospital over Christmas and New Year I decided that this wasn't going to happen again. For the first next few months I tried to remember this. By June, however, things were back to exactly the same way.

    So it will be with London. By the end of this year it will be like Covid never happened.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I'm betting on the tories winning big next time. It brings me no pleasure but they will.

    Brexit is fine. A few hiccups* but basically it has gone far more smoothly than I expected so far. And our stunning vaccination success will see covid largely eliminated from the UK by the autumn with our citizens free to travel the world.

    Boris will take the credit.


    * If Dura Ace is around, yes I prefer the American version. Hiccough just looks silly.

    I'm betting on the tories winning big next time. It brings me no pleasure but they will.

    Brexit is fine. A few hiccups* but basically it has gone far more smoothly than I expected so far. And our stunning vaccination success will see covid largely eliminated from the UK by the autumn with our citizens free to travel the world.

    Boris will take the credit.


    * If Dura Ace is around, yes I prefer the American version. Hiccough just looks silly.

    I suspect that prediction will prove as accurate as the confident assertion that Biden would definitely win Florida - made a few days prior to last November's election. Churchill was not exactly rewarded in 1945 in the aftermath of Victory in Europe . Why should voters be grateful to Johnson when many of the deaths during this pandemic can be laid at his door as a result of his incompetence?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited January 2021

    We’ll see.

    Think you are wrong about people not enjoying it, although you will find lots of kindred spirits on PB.
    I don't think it's a case of whether you enjoy living in London or not. Point is, it's an expensive and inconvenient city to live in. Most people are there for specific reasons of their job. This is somewhat evidenced by the flight out when lockdown meant you no longer need to be there. Reasons for being in London are likely to diminish. Not go away. It will remain, by far, the most important city in the UK.
  • Charles said:

    Ballpark a 0.5% annual tax will result in a 10-15% fall in house prices.

    This will be offset by elimination of stamp duty but it only gets up to that for the richest (paying 12%)

    Ergo the rich benefit from this tax change 🤔
    So anyone saving up to buy a house no longer needs to pay Council Tax, doesn't pay SDLT and needs a 10% smaller deposit? Sounds like a win/win/win. That sounds too good to be true.
This discussion has been closed.