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Two things we don’t yet know – politicalbetting.com

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited January 2021
    The Liverpool - Man Utd game is always hyped by the media but is pretty much always mediocre/shit.

    Two teams scared of losing to each other.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Markets are rational yes, by and large. Currently the market is distorted with a regressive tax and a planning system that is designed to price people out of owning their own home by design.

    A flat tax is a simple free market move.
    A flat fee for provision of council services would make more sense that what you are suggesting. But we tried that, it wasn't very popular. So we stick with the compromise we have.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    RobD said:

    Wouldn't the 2/3rd component easily make up for the lost revenue from the other third?
    It depends on how much the total raised is, doesn’t it? But it seems very unlikely to me. 0.16% would mean around an 80% drop in income for councils in the north, while the rates being bandied about here suggest it would only around double the take in the south.
  • Mortimer said:

    1) When people take on a rental or a mortgage they know what the costs are going to be (albeit with some mild fluctuation due to interests rates, something never experienced by an increasing number of homeowners). So fundamentally changing the basis of charges on where people live on a governmental whim like this would be immoral. And any govt introducing it would rightfully be turfed out.

    2) a)Reducing the amount of spending money that people expect to have will lead to a reduction in spending. b) The house price crash combined with huge tax hikes will lead to associated foreclosures and bankruptcies.
    (1) I think above everyone supporting this agreed it should have a lead time to introduce it. But taxes do change.

    (2) It would be revenue neutral. So people gaining money from not being overtaxed as much would increase spending, wouldn't that bring about economic growth?

    Plus if existing owner occupiers choose to downsize then they can do so without stamp duty. They would be massive winners.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822

    Markets are rational yes, by and large. Currently the market is distorted with a regressive tax and a planning system that is designed to price people out of owning their own home by design.

    A flat tax is a simple free market move.
    No it isn't. The market is "distorted" by desirability. No one lives in Westminster or Camden because council tax is low as a percentage of property prices. What you're doing is penalising success. It's the politics of envy, and something I expect from Jez, not from Rishi.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Mortimer

    Thanks. Wish they’d just post the daily numbers rather than daft bar charts.

    We have gone down on yesterday then? Not good if so.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    (1) I think above everyone supporting this agreed it should have a lead time to introduce it. But taxes do change.

    (2) It would be revenue neutral. So people gaining money from not being overtaxed as much would increase spending, wouldn't that bring about economic growth?

    Plus if existing owner occupiers choose to downsize then they can do so without stamp duty. They would be massive winners.
    Err, SDLT is paid by buyers. Downsizers already benefit
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096
    RobD said:

    How exactly does that prove the numbers she posted were dodgy?
    She did not have UK at 7th and only used it as it did not split the countries, her hatred of Scotland ensured she could not show them down the park. If they had been highest in UK , she would have ensured she highlighted it big time.
  • Whilst not a believer in high government taxation , the bit it should raise should come a lot more from wealth type taxes including this proposal. It is based on assets people own and hence no disincentive to work and levels the playing field for inheritance in that fewer people inherit big sums of cash when others dont get anything at all
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822

    Mortimer

    Thanks. Wish they’d just post the daily numbers rather than daft bar charts.

    We have gone down on yesterday then? Not good if so.

    They do, just click on the data tab.

    It's expected as it's a weekend, the WoW growth will be quite impressive and we've still got numbers to come from Scotland and Wales.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited January 2021
    I'm going to file this under 'Rishi flying a kite, fully expecting it to be blasted by a howitzer'.

    Or at least I bloody well hope so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Top 50 seats by house value:

    15 Conservative
    32 Labour
    3 Lib Dem

    Top 100

    47 Conservative
    48 Labour
    5 Lib Dem

  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Markets are rational yes, by and large. Currently the market is distorted with a regressive tax and a planning system that is designed to price people out of owning their own home by design.

    A flat tax is a simple free market move.
    Indeed.

    Keep fighting the good fight, Phillip. I’m impressed there are some free thinkers in the Tory party.
  • ydoethur said:

    It depends on how much the total raised is, doesn’t it? But it seems very unlikely to me. 0.16% would mean around an 80% drop in income for councils in the north, while the rates being bandied about here suggest it would only around double the take in the south.
    They'd lose a percentage of smaller values in the North but gain a percentage of larger values in the South.

    Should be possible to design to be roughly neutral.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ping said:

    As the good doctor fox pointed out, it’s called levelling up.

    ‘Swot we voted for.
    I think you mean levelling down, crippling aggregate demand down here is complete insanity.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Top 50 seats by house value:

    15 Conservative
    32 Labour
    3 Lib Dem

    Top 100

    47 Conservative
    48 Labour
    5 Lib Dem

    Top 50 is probably the same as the London seat chart.
  • Mortimer

    Thanks. Wish they’d just post the daily numbers rather than daft bar charts.

    We have gone down on yesterday then? Not good if so.

    Use the link i posted and click data tab.

    Yes down a bit. But still probably doing 330k across UK. It will be 500k/day this time next week.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    edited January 2021

    Not really, over the last forty years, my parents have spent something like 500k on improving/extending the house, if not more.
    You are saying that they the property is worth £3,000,000?

    So at normal Stamp Duty rates, someone would save £258,750 in Stamp Duty, and presumably the price would adjust in some manner.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Mortimer

    Thanks. Wish they’d just post the daily numbers rather than daft bar charts.

    We have gone down on yesterday then? Not good if so.

    Pleasure. If you hover on the bar chart it will show you the number.

    Saturday I guess - today's numbers (published tomorrow) will also be down, I suspect. Need to be up to 400k on weekdays soon, and try and get away from the weekend lull. War footing and all that.

    But don't worry, no-one will care massively about the vaccine numbers when Phil T crashes the economy and house prices at the same time....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    MattW said:

    I have not thought through all the implications yet.

    My CT is something like £1800-2000 I think, and .48% of the house value is slightly lower, and Stamp Duty would apply but is only 6k or so.

    That makes it neutral as near as dammit, and we have the trends in place to solve the Stuck Granny problem over a number of years.

    My relatives who live in a half-millions 30s semi in London suburbia get an extra few hundred of Council Tax, and escape 20k of Stamp Duty.

    Generally I like as the vast majority would be not too worse off, and lower cost houses would be less targeted.

    It is going to take some analysis to show that Birmingham E and W will be worse off. Not sure that I believe it.

    Red Wall should like it. Ultra-rich London may not (though I have not calculated the balance .. and since they have the highest Stamp Duty rates of all, I am not sure if they suffer badly.) What is the seat balance for Boris between Central London and the Red Wall?

    However the devil is in the detail.
    Qute a good tax on overseas owners too.

    Plus an incentive to downsize in retirement could do wonders for the housing shortage. Downward pressure on prices too.

    If the Tories don't do it, then Labour should.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    They'd lose a percentage of smaller values in the North but gain a percentage of larger values in the South.

    Should be possible to design to be roughly neutral.
    Yes, but not on the terms offered. Would need to be about 0.6% with 75% being redistributed, on a very rough calculation indeed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247

    It’s a completely stupid idea as it would screw everyone down here. Given that London and the South East is the driver for the whole UK economy it would be utter madness.
    Its called levelling up, and was a government promise in the recent GE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    Not really, over the last forty years, my parents have spent something like 500k on improving/extending the house, if not more.
    Your parents house was bought for 18k and is worth 3 million quid ?!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822
    The other place this will go down like a lead balloon is Uxbridge and Boris is already on shaky ground there.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    malcolmg said:

    She did not have UK at 7th and only used it as it did not split the countries, her hatred of Scotland ensured she could not show them down the park. If they had been highest in UK , she would have ensured she highlighted it big time.
    Get a job and take your monomaniacal obsessions somewhere useful. You’ve clearly never worked a day in your life.
  • MaxPB said:

    No it isn't. The market is "distorted" by desirability. No one lives in Westminster or Camden because council tax is low as a percentage of property prices. What you're doing is penalising success. It's the politics of envy, and something I expect from Jez, not from Rishi.
    If "desirability" were the only factor then why do leafy suburbs with expensive houses and a green belt around them not just build more houses to fill the desire? Why is the supply of houses constrained to artificially inflate house prices and burden those who need to pay to live there?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited January 2021
    Mortimer said:

    Pleasure. If you hover on the bar chart it will show you the number.

    Saturday I guess - today's numbers (published tomorrow) will also be down, I suspect. Need to be up to 400k on weekdays soon, and try and get away from the weekend lull. War footing and all that.

    But don't worry, no-one will care massively about the vaccine numbers when Phil T crashes the economy and house prices at the same time....
    10 new mass hubs open tomorrow in England should be a decent boost straight off the bat.

    Plan is to get 50 open asap.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Your parents house was bought for 18k and is worth 3 million quid ?!
    I wish, last time I was valued it was something like £1.2 million in 2013.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,796

    This is entirely correct and is in line with my view that we should not put additional taxes on the home you live in (with the exception that we should consider more council tax bands at the top end). However I strongly support proper tax on investment/second property which is primarily held for investment - 3% capital value per year sounds reasonable.
    Congratulations you just hit the poorer people in even harder. As a renter I know that investment tax is getting passed on to me in my rent and under your scheme I will also pay council tax for the home I live in. Talk about the double whammy
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Mortimer said:

    Pleasure. If you hover on the bar chart it will show you the number.

    Saturday I guess - today's numbers (published tomorrow) will also be down, I suspect. Need to be up to 400k on weekdays soon, and try and get away from the weekend lull. War footing and all that.

    But don't worry, no-one will care massively about the vaccine numbers when Phil T crashes the economy and house prices at the same time....
    Ha ha, ain’t gonna happen thankfully. Although on one fantasy island policy proposed by our northern contingent I would be paying £35,000 a year in property taxes if my fag packet calculations are correct!!
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited January 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Your parents house was bought for 18k and is worth 3 million quid ?!
    If a large large and valuable houseowner cannot immediately pay, a charge payable on death could levied and government could still get the cash by using that charge to raise of the financial markets
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Whilst not a believer in high government taxation , the bit it should raise should come a lot more from wealth type taxes including this proposal. It is based on assets people own and hence no disincentive to work and levels the playing field for inheritance in that fewer people inherit big sums of cash when others dont get anything at all

    Wealth creation doesn't happen in a vacuum.

    I have created a successful business and generated significant assets for myself. In the meantime I have paid a shed load of tax, contributed to the BoP and employed people. In addition to the personal tax I have paid.

    Wealth taxes are a further grab on the those who already bear the greatest burden. I am staggered to see people in the Conservative party entertain them....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    ydoethur said:

    It depends on how much the total raised is, doesn’t it? But it seems very unlikely to me. 0.16% would mean around an 80% drop in income for councils in the north, while the rates being bandied about here suggest it would only around double the take in the south.
    But council tax isn't flat, so the 2/3rds will be much larger in the areas where the effective rate has gone up. I think I'd need to see some numbers before I'm convinced by your assertion that every council north of Hertford would go bust.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    MaxPB said:

    I don't want to defend property prices, nothing would make me happier than to see them fall as someone who is trying to buy a house right now.

    What I'm saying is that I have already paid ca. 40% tax on the income to buy said property and it generates zero return, in fact it will end up being a money black hole which generates VAT and income tax for construction.

    I'm all for taxing property, but only property which either sits empty (second homes, holiday homes) or is generating a return (rental property) and making that 2-3% per year.

    Taxing something that it is inherently impossible to generate a return from is morally wrong. I have bought my flat to live in, not because I want to stare at the value.
    That's a better argument.

    It sounds like you don't object in principle to an asset tax, just one that targets the primary residence that people live in.

    I have sympathy with that.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Ha ha, ain’t gonna happen thankfully. Although on one fantasy island policy proposed by our northern contingent I would be paying £35,000 a year in property taxes if my fag packet calculations are correct!!
    Nah, its only a % - don't worry....!!!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Use the link i posted and click data tab.

    Yes down a bit. But still probably doing 330k across UK. It will be 500k/day this time next week.
    Cheers Francis.

    Looking on a phone so not ideal. Happy to accept a slight decline at weekends but also share @Mortimer ‘s view that we should start letting this be “a thing”. The virus doesn’t stop for roast beef and a good Malbec.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited January 2021

    I've just done a rough calculation, my parents bought their house for 18K and would pay that amount in about 15 months under this new property tax.

    And we're in the desolate North.

    I suspect many in the South would be paying their purchase price within weeks under this new house tax.

    Their house is now worth £3,000,000?
    edit, see you say it was £1.2m.
    0.48 of 1,200,000 id £5,760
    So it'd take them 3 and a bit years to pay £18k
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    I wish, last time I was valued it was something like £1.2 million in 2013.
    Then the bill would be about 6k in a year, not 14.4k
  • Mortimer said:

    Wealth creation doesn't happen in a vacuum.

    I have created a successful business and generated significant assets for myself. In the meantime I have paid a shed load of tax, contributed to the BoP and employed people. In addition to the personal tax I have paid.

    Wealth taxes are a further grab on the those who already bear the greatest burden. I am staggered to see people in the Conservative party entertain them....
    i am not in the tory party but think the immoral thing that is also nothing to do with a meritocracy is the unfair inheritance we allow where chosen few get a lot and others nothing. Big house prices over the recent 30 years have made this problem worse
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822

    If "desirability" were the only factor then why do leafy suburbs with expensive houses and a green belt around them not just build more houses to fill the desire? Why is the supply of houses constrained to artificially inflate house prices and burden those who need to pay to live there?
    You've clearly not been to any of these places. There is an insane amount of development in the outer London boroughs and Hertfordshire. You can't walk around without seeing a building site every couple of minutes putting up flats and houses.

    House prices are high because lots of people want to live here and because owner occupiers are having to compete with landlords who have interest allowable at the basic rate.

    Fuck the landlords off with your taxes, leave my home in peace or your party will face a reckoning at the ballot box just as Mrs May did.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096

    Maybe move to Ayrshire where the property is cheaper but you may encounter some odd, unfriendly people! :lol:
    Ayrshire is beautiful, and certainly cheaper than down south. I have a modern 4 bedroom house at about 230-250K and an old Victorian quarter villa that is very spacious which is about 110K. If you go to Ayr you can get beautiful houses near beach around 300k+ for very big 4 beds, mind you they do have them in the millions there as well.
    I can be in Highlands, Borders, Edinburgh , etc all within a couple of hours. No need to be stuck in madding crowds like packs of seals, hard to beat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    edited January 2021
    malcolmg said:

    She did not have UK at 7th and only used it as it did not split the countries, her hatred of Scotland ensured she could not show them down the park. If they had been highest in UK , she would have ensured she highlighted it big time.
    No, they had the UK at 6th simply because San Marino wasn't included. But the claim she was refuting was that the "UK was worst in Europe". Nothing about England or Scotland, so quite why the constituent parts need to be split when other countries are reported together is beyond me.

    In fact, the list you have posted is identical to the one she posted, excluding San Marino. How does that shows her numbers are dodgy and your's aren't?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    BBC News - Russia Navalny: Poisoned opposition leader held after flying home
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55694598

    Let me guess.. did he accidentally brutally poison himself whilst combing his hair?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2021
    Foxy said:

    Its called levelling up, and was a government promise in the recent GE.
    The problem is, because the Tories have encouraged structural regional imbalances for so long, affecting all sorts of people, there would also be a number of averagely-off pensioners, in terms of income, in the South who would experience it purely as a levelling down. There are other sources of possible tax revenue for levelling up that aren't so regionally biased, but this kind of policy would have its merits and demerits - and maybe most juicily for the Tories, would be particularly popular in the anti-metropolitan parts of the north.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Foxy said:

    Qute a good tax on overseas owners too.

    Plus an incentive to downsize in retirement could do wonders for the housing shortage. Downward pressure on prices too.

    If the Tories don't do it, then Labour should.
    It’s completely idiotic, unless you want to cripple aggregate demand in the most productive regions of the UK economy?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    I've just done a rough calculation, my parents bought their house for 18K and would pay that amount in about 15 months under this new property tax.

    And we're in the desolate North.

    I suspect many in the South would be paying their purchase price within weeks under this new house tax.

    I think your parents house would need to be worth over £2.8 million to pay that much.

    Don't you think it's fair you pay a little more given Band H in Sheffield tops out at £3,788?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    i am not in the tory party but think the immoral thing that is also nothing to do with a meritocracy is the unfair inheritance we allow where chosen few get a lot and others nothing. Big house prices over the recent 30 years have made this problem worse
    IHT is one area that I think is morally ripe for reform. Or possibly not even reform, just not moving the thresholds will fiscally drag a lot of boomer estates into paying more tax.

    However, General HYUFD will probably order a tank battalion down to Dorset for my even conceding that notion....
  • ydoethur said:

    Yes, but not on the terms offered. Would need to be about 0.6% with 75% being redistributed, on a very rough calculation indeed.
    Why?

    So currently eg £1200 off a £150k home, 0.8%.

    That home then goes down to £720 of which £240 is local and £480 goes to a national pot.

    Million pound home elsewhere pays £4,800k per annum of which £3,200k goes to the national pot.

    Should be possible to balance those numbers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    One thing we can be sure of: London isn't hated as much by the rest of the country as Paris is by the rest of France.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    One Tory strategist I know is of the belief the moment young people start becoming Tories is the moment they become homeowners.

    Don't mess with their homes.
    Well, that's true. But you have to get them to being a homeowner first.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    I think your parents house would need to be worth over £2.8 million to pay that much.

    Don't you think it's fair you pay a little more given Band H in Sheffield tops out at £3,788?
    Would they get any better services for paying thousands more?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    Mortimer said:

    Err, SDLT is paid by buyers. Downsizers already benefit
    That last assumes no balancing adjustment in prices.

    We also need to see how the current COVID changes will help or hinder adjustments.

    Rich people in London will perhaps pay less as their house prices are about to adjust down (!)

    I can see "SDLT IS NEVER COMING BACK" being a good political slogan.

    And the original tax proposals from the Fairer Shares Campaign included a possibility of rolling up tax until you sell if necessary.
    https://fairershare.org.uk/faq/#how-will-the-ppt-affect-a-pensioner-living-in-an-expensive-home-with-little-or-no-income
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    The worst Tory general election campaign in living memory? The one where Theresa May became the house snatcher.

    Why was Mrs Thatcher really ousted? Tory MPs had angry constituents that were massively worse off thanks to the changes in the rates when the community charge/poll tax came in and they needed a change, which Mrs T wasn't going to give.

    Brief lesson, Tory PMs/Leaders who starts messing with council taxes/property taxes have unhappy endings.

    This is absolutely true.

    Having said that, mild reforms are possible, as your hero George Osborne showed.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Then the bill would be about 6k in a year, not 14.4k
    Ah thanks, still more than we're currently paying in council tax.

    The difficulty of this for any government is that no government has gone for changing the valuation for council tax, which is based on 1991(!!) values.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    This is really quite on the money. I would have thought that more people would have taken a look at the near miss we had with Corbyn and thought a little more about where all that came from.
    People who vote for radical change aren't (always) stupid, they're just not sufficiently invested in the status quo. You can play a game of brinksmanship with it and say we're ok to continue on this course, but do acknowledge the risks please.
    Thanks.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Mortimer said:

    Nah, its only a % - don't worry....!!!
    My calculations are probably wrong, I’m late to the debate and just reading snippets.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Well, that's true. But you have to get them to being a homeowner first.
    I'm pretty sure existing government policy is increasing the number of homeowners....
  • Well, that's true. But you have to get them to being a homeowner first.
    Plenty of new homeowners in the North and Midlands, which is where the Tories made their gains at the 2019GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Mortimer said:

    Your argument in bold is true, on average, but people like you, and me, and MaxPB are probably a few exceptions I can immediately think of - so is it true for Tory voters? I am not so sure.

    Many of my generation are already wealthier than their parents in asset terms (whilst at the same time many are not, and I'll grant you the variation seems much bigger than it did for our parents) - but often stretched. They also have far, far greater outgoings.

    Those who are stretched will often have worked hard, foregone luxuries, to secure a home. Any party that screws homeowners as a pure function of the value of their home, more of which is likely to be mortgaged amongst younger voters, is not going to be a party that forms the government.

    I understand where you're coming from, but think the key is going to be the tax recoup from boomer estates. By simply failing to increase the threshold on IHT the govt are going to clean up through fiscal drag.

    What do you mean by tax recoup from boomer estates?

    I wouldn't touch IHT, I agree.
  • Andy_JS said:

    One thing we can be sure of: London isn't hated as much by the rest of the country as Paris is by the rest of France.

    I honestly don't think London is hated by the rest of the country anyway.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Ah thanks, still more than we're currently paying in council tax.

    The difficulty of this for any government is that no government has gone for changing the valuation for council tax, which is based on 1991(!!) values.
    Yep. It is a stored up problem.

    One to be slowly unwound. Not by Phil T upturning the apple cart.
  • Well, that's true. But you have to get them to being a homeowner first.
    Indeed. This is why the North is swinging Tory and the South is swinging Labour. Decades of I'm alright Jack NIMBYism keeps people off the ladder.

    Under this proposal if a Council constrains planning permission it keeps house prices high but everyone pays extra tax for that. If a Council grants extra planning permission it reduces house prices, increasing affordability, and everyone in the area gets a tax cut.

    Allowing more houses to be built and giving everyone a tax cut as a result and getting more onto the ladder should be a good thing.
  • RobD said:

    No, they had the UK at 6th simply because San Marino wasn't included. But the claim she was refuting was that the "UK was worst in Europe". Nothing about England or Scotland, so quite why the constituent parts need to be split when other countries are reported together is beyond me.

    In fact, the list you have posted is identical to the one she posted, excluding San Marino. How does that shows her numbers are dodgy and your's aren't?
    Anything that includes Scotland in the UK is, by Malc's definition, dodgy.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    What do you mean by tax recoup from boomer estates?

    I wouldn't touch IHT, I agree.
    Lots of boomer estates are going to yuuuuugge, and so tax recoup will increase.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    You've clearly not been to any of these places. There is an insane amount of development in the outer London boroughs and Hertfordshire. You can't walk around without seeing a building site every couple of minutes putting up flats and houses.

    House prices are high because lots of people want to live here and because owner occupiers are having to compete with landlords who have interest allowable at the basic rate.

    Fuck the landlords off with your taxes, leave my home in peace or your party will face a reckoning at the ballot box just as Mrs May did.
    Lots on PB can’t understand why so many people want to live in and around the South East and London, the greatest city in the world and the region with by far the best climate in the UK.

    It seems quite obvious to me.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited January 2021

    The Liverpool - Man Utd game is always hyped by the media but is pretty much always mediocre/shit.

    Two teams scared of losing to each other.

    especially with no fans - I like derby and big rival games but find this season no interest in them because of the lack of atmosphere. Its not as if the players are local born or really have any affinity to the clubs they play for anyway
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    My calculations are probably wrong, I’m late to the debate and just reading snippets.
    We're all working off 0.48% here Bobjob
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    One thing we can be sure of: London isn't hated as much by the rest of the country as Paris is by the rest of France.

    Citation required!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822

    Well, that's true. But you have to get them to being a homeowner first.
    Then target private landlords, 1.2m of them own 4.5m houses and flats according to the last report I read. That's where the Tory party has failed since 2010, we didn't do anything to address private rentals that grew under Labour. Now you have to do something about it, Osborne made a great start and the government needs to continue along those lines by making it impossible to make a profit from buying an existing property and renting it out to someone who would otherwise like to own it but for the price.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096
    DougSeal said:

    Get a job and take your monomaniacal obsessions somewhere useful. You’ve clearly never worked a day in your life.
    Away you halfwitted moron, I have worked for 50 years and I bet I make a lot more money than you do and have paid many times the tax you will ever pay as well.
    You are a whining creepy pompous self opinionated clown who knows little.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    especially with no fans - I like derby and big rival games but find this season no interest in them because of the lack of atmosphere. Its not as if the players are local born or really have any affinity to the clubs they play for anyway
    Yeah derbies have completely lost their venom. Can’t wait to get fans back again,
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Ah thanks, still more than we're currently paying in council tax.

    The difficulty of this for any government is that no government has gone for changing the valuation for council tax, which is based on 1991(!!) values.
    But, it sounds like you wouldn't want them to because it'd almost certainly land you with a larger bill?

    Look, I get this, I really do, but I think it's gone too far now. The existing system isn't fair enough.

    I want to lower taxes on younger and working people, to boost their economy and their prospects, and I think we need to assess how we do it.

    Javid (briefly), Sunak, Osborne and even Hammond (I think) have all considered this in the last 10 years. So it's not a socialist ploy.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    edited January 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Then target private landlords, 1.2m of them own 4.5m houses and flats according to the last report I read. That's where the Tory party has failed since 2010, we didn't do anything to address private rentals that grew under Labour. Now you have to do something about it, Osborne made a great start and the government needs to continue along those lines by making it impossible to make a profit from buying an existing property and renting it out to someone who would otherwise like to own it but for the price.
    +1

    Edit to add:

    Plus it would lead to a net growth in the number of homeowners.

    Luckily, more people in the Tory party think like Max than Phil.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    malcolmg said:

    Ayrshire is beautiful, and certainly cheaper than down south. I have a modern 4 bedroom house at about 230-250K and an old Victorian quarter villa that is very spacious which is about 110K. If you go to Ayr you can get beautiful houses near beach around 300k+ for very big 4 beds, mind you they do have them in the millions there as well.
    I can be in Highlands, Borders, Edinburgh , etc all within a couple of hours. No need to be stuck in madding crowds like packs of seals, hard to beat.
    You stand to gain more from abolition of the Scottish SDLT tax version if they follow suit in a manner slightly different (obviously), as they hiked it up a bit before.

    Numbers of friends building houses in Scotlandshire tell me that selling anything large and highlands has been a bit of a bloodbath for the last few years.

    But that is anecdata.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096
    RobD said:

    No, they had the UK at 6th simply because San Marino wasn't included. But the claim she was refuting was that the "UK was worst in Europe". Nothing about England or Scotland, so quite why the constituent parts need to be split when other countries are reported together is beyond me.

    In fact, the list you have posted is identical to the one she posted, excluding San Marino. How does that shows her numbers are dodgy and your's aren't?
    Name me any other multiple countries rolled up into one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    MaxPB said:

    Then target private landlords, 1.2m of them own 4.5m houses and flats according to the last report I read. That's where the Tory party has failed since 2010, we didn't do anything to address private rentals that grew under Labour. Now you have to do something about it, Osborne made a great start and the government needs to continue along those lines by making it impossible to make a profit from buying an existing property and renting it out to someone who would otherwise like to own it but for the price.
    I always wonder why this isn't a problem in European countries. They must have an enormous number of landlords given everyone there rents.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822

    But, it sounds like you wouldn't want them to because it'd almost certainly land you with a larger bill?

    Look, I get this, I really do, but I think it's gone too far now. The existing system isn't fair enough.

    I want to lower taxes on younger and working people, to boost their economy and their prospects, and I think we need to assess how we do it.

    Javid (briefly), Sunak, Osborne and even Hammond (I think) have all considered this in the last 10 years. So it's not a socialist ploy.
    They looked at it, realised it was a disaster and then looked elsewhere. Target landlords, most of them are scumbags anyway.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited January 2021
    Foxy said:

    Its called levelling up, and was a government promise in the recent GE.
    And you can't "level up" without, in some way, screwing the affluent places and people.
    To pretend otherwise is cakeism.
    But that's the bit of the equation the Tories didn't emphasise.
    So, if not this, what?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Mortimer said:

    Would they get any better services for paying thousands more?
    If entirely local, it would be accompanied by a cut in the lower bands. If partly local and partly national, it would contribute to the Exchequer, so other taxes could be reduced elsewhere.

    I'm arguing for fiscal rectitude and fair conservatism here, not more spending.

    That's why I'm not a socialist.
  • I think your parents house would need to be worth over £2.8 million to pay that much.

    Don't you think it's fair you pay a little more given Band H in Sheffield tops out at £3,788?
    My parents, as am I, are ok with paying extra taxes, but I'm worried about the older folk who do not have the retirement income to pay such taxes. There's someone who lives close to us, and wouldn't be able to afford such a change, she really can't downsize because she's had the house adapted for her disability.

    There's plenty of things the government could change that would be affordable to those with decent incomes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    malcolmg said:

    Name me any other multiple countries rolled up into one.
    The claim was regarding the UK's numbers, not those of the constituent parts. Much the same way we aren't looking at Bavaria's numbers, or Catalonia's.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    edited January 2021
    As an aside, this smacks of being one of those policy ploys which happens in advance of the budget every year.

    Suggest a morally indefensible tax rise, and then don't do it. Everyone is relieved and no one notices some change that affects 0.9m people, so long as those 0.9m include no journalists or union members.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,840
    RobD said:

    I always wonder why this isn't a problem in European countries. They must have an enormous number of landlords given everyone there rents.
    Home ownership rates are higher in most European countries. It's only the Germanic and Nordic part of Europe that has less home ownership than we do.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/246355/home-ownership-rate-in-europe/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    One thing that should definitely be taxed off the earth is Russian oligarchs and dodgy Sheiks using empty London flats as a personal bank account, and for thinly-veiled money laundering.
  • The one ethical argument I can see against equalising the taxes is that there's no liquidity in the house to pay for it. But people already have to pay Council Tax without any liquidity for it already today.

    If it were possible to say that those who don't want to or can't pay the tax see a charge placed on the property for when it is next sold instead, then would that answer concerns? An option that doesn't exist for Council Tax.

    So people who own a home but don't have an income would gain from an immediate abolition of Council Tax and instead when the house is sold and the equity is released then the charge is realised only at that point?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357

    Home ownership rates are higher in most European countries. It's only the Germanic and Nordic part of Europe that has less home ownership than we do.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/246355/home-ownership-rate-in-europe/
    Interesting, thanks. I was thinking of Germany when I typed that, and just assumed it was similar elsewhere. Is this a hot issue in Germany, too?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited January 2021

    Yeah derbies have completely lost their venom. Can’t wait to get fans back again,
    yes derby football is about the coming out to Z cars by the Everton players against Liverpool or (vice versa) them singing You'll never walk alone (which is truly spinetingling at a big match) or the theme from local heroes at the Georgie derbies involving Newcastle. it is now entirely possible to have a derby game where none of the people in the stadium are actually from the cities involved. the below link is not actually a derby but what a rendition!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weec_jzudc8
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822
    RobD said:

    I always wonder why this isn't a problem in European countries. They must have an enormous number of landlords given everyone there rents.
    It is in lots of Europe, we just don't hear about it. When I first went to live in Zurich they were all bitching about how impossible it was to get on the housing ladder, and this is a bunch of Swiss and international investment bankers.
  • Ah thanks, still more than we're currently paying in council tax.

    The difficulty of this for any government is that no government has gone for changing the valuation for council tax, which is based on 1991(!!) values.
    The problem is that if you were to revalue the properties then every property in London - even the most humble - would probably be in the highest band. Revaluing is not sufficient. What would need to happen is a change in the system so that the same property in different parts of the country was put into a different band based on its location and the overall value of property in the region.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Plenty of new homeowners in the North and Midlands, which is where the Tories made their gains at the 2019GE.
    Yes, and look at the challenge, on the flip-side, the Tories face in certain parts of the South.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    edited January 2021
    MaxPB said:

    It is in lots of Europe, we just don't hear about it. When I first went to live in Zurich they were all bitching about how impossible it was to get on the housing ladder, and this is a bunch of Swiss and international investment bankers.
    World's smallest violin on standby. ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    RobD said:

    But council tax isn't flat, so the 2/3rds will be much larger in the areas where the effective rate has gone up. I think I'd need to see some numbers before I'm convinced by your assertion that every council north of Hertford would go bust.
    Let’s start with this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54907185

    Although interestingly the most recent council to go bust was in London.

    Tampering with local government finance at this moment would require great care and an undertaking to raise overall revenue. This proposal doesn’t meet this criteria.
  • malcolmg said:

    Name me any other multiple countries rolled up into one.
    Flanders and Wallonia. They even have different languages.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    The one ethical argument I can see against equalising the taxes is that there's no liquidity in the house to pay for it. But people already have to pay Council Tax without any liquidity for it already today.

    If it were possible to say that those who don't want to or can't pay the tax see a charge placed on the property for when it is next sold instead, then would that answer concerns? An option that doesn't exist for Council Tax.

    So people who own a home but don't have an income would gain from an immediate abolition of Council Tax and instead when the house is sold and the equity is released then the charge is realised only at that point?

    Yes, next sale or roll-up and defer them to death.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    kle4 said:

    BBC Breaking news headling 'Talented but flawed producer Phil Spector dies'

    Is murderer one of his flaws, or was that incidental?

    He was "complex" - like the British Empire. ☺
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    My parents, as am I, are ok with paying extra taxes, but I'm worried about the older folk who do not have the retirement income to pay such taxes. There's someone who lives close to us, and wouldn't be able to afford such a change, she really can't downsize because she's had the house adapted for her disability.

    There's plenty of things the government could change that would be affordable to those with decent incomes.
    Yes, exemptions or discounts for those disabled or unable to move would be needed.

    I don't want anyone taxed out of their home, and that's a redline for me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    ydoethur said:

    Let’s start with this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54907185

    Although interestingly the most recent council to go bust was in London.

    Tampering with local government finance at this moment would require great care and an undertaking to raise overall revenue. This proposal doesn’t meet this criteria.
    I'm just saying I'd like to see an actual analysis of the proposal on the finances of various councils. You are the one making the claim they'd all go bust, so it would have been nice to see some quantitative analysis on that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822
    RobD said:

    World's smallest violin on standby. ;)
    More a comment on people with very high incomes also being locked out of the market because of stratospheric prices and lack of property for sale. I can imagine on lower incomes it's actually impossible to buy a property in Zurich.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    MaxPB said:

    You've clearly not been to any of these places. There is an insane amount of development in the outer London boroughs and Hertfordshire. You can't walk around without seeing a building site every couple of minutes putting up flats and houses.

    House prices are high because lots of people want to live here and because owner occupiers are having to compete with landlords who have interest allowable at the basic rate.

    Fuck the landlords off with your taxes, leave my home in peace or your party will face a reckoning at the ballot box just as Mrs May did.
    The amount of personal LLs investing in London plummeted since the Osborne attacks.

    The thing that mainly matters when deciding LL tax is the impact on Ts.

    For me up here, the proposed change of liability from T to LL is a movement equivalent to approx 20% of the entire revenue, but I think all my Ts would agree to a near-identical rent increase, as they would be no worse off.

    As it is across the piece I would expect an across-market adjustment for the large majority of the change - perhaps subject to unwinding of current anomalous CT values.

    The rub would be if they tried to do the Osborne thing and pretend that business expenses are not business expenses.

    But precedents exist for occupied rented properties not being double taxed.
This discussion has been closed.