politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingha
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Gazprom has halted gas supplies to the Ukraine. This could get problematic.0
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I wasn't sure you were ever "on" us to be honest.TOPPING said:
Agree 100% with your post and as to the above, well they weren't at least not at the conference which overwhelmingly agreed to go into coalition.
Collective selective memory, collective denial. I'm beginning to go off them.
Mr Bond's original post is full of assumptions and inaccuracies. There was never any realistic prospect of a deal with Labour in May 2010 - the numbers weren't there, the will from the Labour side wasn't there after 13 years in office and prolonging any talks with Labour was a negotiating ploy to wring further concessions from the Conservatives.
Being in Government and around the Cabinet table gave the LDs a presence and an influence that Supply & Confidence wouldn't and couldn't provide. The experience of Government will, I believe, be a positive for the Party in terms of policy-making and future policy development.
There was, I believe, from 2007-10, a convergence of thought between Cameron's "liberal conservatism" and Clegg's "conservative liberalism" which took the party away from the social democratic route of Steel, Kennedy and Ashdown and toward the kind of liberalism favoured by Jo Grimond and before him Clement Davies.
The Liberal Party of the 1950s was the small-state Party opposed to Butskellism. Indeed, a number of the IEA founders and proto-Thatcherites started life in the 1950s Liberal Party. Clegg isn't going that far but the direction of the Party under his leadership has been (and this I believe influenced by the economic recession) sharply away from social democracy.
In a sense, Clegg has "de-merged" the post-1988 Liberal Democrats - the social democrats have returned to Labour or opted out of politics and what's left is the Liberal core.
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i thought there would have been a higher proportion of women in the lib demsTheScreamingEagles said:
Fewest members.isam said:
Sounds like the basis one of Mike's threadsPulpstar said:
Good news for UKIP - though still behind the Lib Dems - Labour seem to have the most members however like the Conservatives the numbers have plummeted from their joint peaks of 400kisam said:If you only read PB you'd think UKIP were on the wane but the membership keeps on rising
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 3m
#UKIP Membership:
2002 9,000
2008 14,600
2010 15,500
2012 19,500
2013 32,500
2014 39,143 as of now, and rising.
Source:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/lib_dem_membership_surge_continues
Will UKIP have more members than the Lib Dems when the GE comes ?
"For all UKIPs claims of an "earthquake" they remain the party with the least members... "
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From the article:
However, the results of the poll in Nottingham were 75 per cent for and 25 per cent against.
Anyone else reading that as "We've got four members"?0 -
Sounds like some Red Hot Dutch action.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:TSE,
The Dutch have a rather interesting football prog.
It's called WK in Lingerie and you can find it on YouTube.
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Mr. Eagles, 10/1 is still rather splendid.
I heard the news about Schumacher the other day. Sounds like he won't be making a complete recovery. I hope he can.0 -
Have England declared?
Edit, yes they have. Should be a good day.0 -
Anyone else reading that as "We've got four members"?Tissue_Price said:From the article:
However, the results of the poll in Nottingham were 75 per cent for and 25 per cent against.
I read it as Loughborough University Students oversaw the "count"0 -
Thomas Vermaelen transfer: Arsenal captain 'verbally agrees' shock move to join Louis van Gaal at Manchester United
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/manchester-united-transfer-latest-arsenal-defender-thomas-vermaelen-verbally-agrees-shock-move-to-join-louis-van-gaal-at-old-trafford-9539474.html0 -
Someone needs to tell this airhead that punishment is meant to be hard, really is staggering.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2658839/I-dont-want-community-service-picking-litter-tiring-says-glamour-model-skipped-probation-meeting-boob-job-Belgium.html0 -
Mr. Jim, attractive women tend to get lighter sentences. Staggeringly, this well-documented sexism tends not to get quite the attention as other cases.0
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She can punish me any time, and I can guarantee it will be ha[moderated]ToryJim said:Someone needs to tell this airhead that punishment is meant to be hard, really is staggering.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2658839/I-dont-want-community-service-picking-litter-tiring-says-glamour-model-skipped-probation-meeting-boob-job-Belgium.html0 -
I said a few weeks ago, if the Lib Dems wanted to get rid of Clegg, then they might have to employ the Harriet Jones option of "Don't you think he looks tired"
Looks like it has begun, Caveat Emptor, it is Guido.
Family Friend: Clegg in “Really Bad Place”
http://order-order.com/2014/06/16/family-friend-clegg-in-really-bad-place/0 -
It happens to men as well.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, attractive women tend to get lighter sentences. Staggeringly, this well-documented sexism tends not to get quite the attention as other cases.
The general approach is overweight people are more likely to be found guilty, especially if you're a woman
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2260680/Male-jurors-likely-women-guilty-crime-overweight-study-finds.html
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You're wrong (about my being "off" the LDs).stodge said:
I wasn't sure you were ever "on" us to be honest.TOPPING said:
Agree 100% with your post and as to the above, well they weren't at least not at the conference which overwhelmingly agreed to go into coalition.
Collective selective memory, collective denial. I'm beginning to go off them.
Mr Bond's original post is full of assumptions and inaccuracies. There was never any realistic prospect of a deal with Labour in May 2010 - the numbers weren't there, the will from the Labour side wasn't there after 13 years in office and prolonging any talks with Labour was a negotiating ploy to wring further concessions from the Conservatives.
Being in Government and around the Cabinet table gave the LDs a presence and an influence that Supply & Confidence wouldn't and couldn't provide. The experience of Government will, I believe, be a positive for the Party in terms of policy-making and future policy development.
There was, I believe, from 2007-10, a convergence of thought between Cameron's "liberal conservatism" and Clegg's "conservative liberalism" which took the party away from the social democratic route of Steel, Kennedy and Ashdown and toward the kind of liberalism favoured by Jo Grimond and before him Clement Davies.
The Liberal Party of the 1950s was the small-state Party opposed to Butskellism. Indeed, a number of the IEA founders and proto-Thatcherites started life in the 1950s Liberal Party. Clegg isn't going that far but the direction of the Party under his leadership has been (and this I believe influenced by the economic recession) sharply away from social democracy.
In a sense, Clegg has "de-merged" the post-1988 Liberal Democrats - the social democrats have returned to Labour or opted out of politics and what's left is the Liberal core.
Ever since May 2010 I have been defending the LDs (often from themselves) about the limited room for manoeuvre they've had in coalition and what an achievement that has been. And don't give me the "no realistic prospect of a deal with Labour" - as we know NC categorically laid out the conditions for forming a coalition.
They are in power, at the table making grown-up decisions that affect you and me. Yes, they've had to shed their looney tunes far left happy-clappy hypothecating, whackjob policies. But that's great! I'm a big fan.
And now they need to define who and what they are. Are they still to the left of (old) Labour or have they embraced the pragmatism that they have espoused these past four years in govt. They have lost the NOTA tag while in govt and I am interested to see where they go next.
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Mr Dancer, saying I'm sorry I can't do my mandated punishment because I might break a nail is ridiculous.Shouldn't have done the crime.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, attractive women tend to get lighter sentences. Staggeringly, this well-documented sexism tends not to get quite the attention as other cases.
Mr Eagles, behave.0 -
The thing that has amazed me the most today is that 44% of chicken eaters wash their chicken before cooking it !
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A question I have often posed to PB Liberals is "what would it take to depose Clegg/pull the plug on the Coalition?" As the election campaign begins in nine or so months, when is the cut off point for the Libs? Could they press the button at conference if things don't improve over the summer?stodge said:
I wasn't sure you were ever "on" us to be honest.TOPPING said:
Agree 100% with your post and as to the above, well they weren't at least not at the conference which overwhelmingly agreed to go into coalition.
Collective selective memory, collective denial. I'm beginning to go off them.
Mr Bond's original post is full of assumptions and inaccuracies. There was never any realistic prospect of a deal with Labour in May 2010 - the numbers weren't there, the will from the Labour side wasn't there after 13 years in office and prolonging any talks with Labour was a negotiating ploy to wring further concessions from the Conservatives.
Being in Government and around the Cabinet table gave the LDs a presence and an influence that Supply & Confidence wouldn't and couldn't provide. The experience of Government will, I believe, be a positive for the Party in terms of policy-making and future policy development.
There was, I believe, from 2007-10, a convergence of thought between Cameron's "liberal conservatism" and Clegg's "conservative liberalism" which took the party away from the social democratic route of Steel, Kennedy and Ashdown and toward the kind of liberalism favoured by Jo Grimond and before him Clement Davies.
The Liberal Party of the 1950s was the small-state Party opposed to Butskellism. Indeed, a number of the IEA founders and proto-Thatcherites started life in the 1950s Liberal Party. Clegg isn't going that far but the direction of the Party under his leadership has been (and this I believe influenced by the economic recession) sharply away from social democracy.
In a sense, Clegg has "de-merged" the post-1988 Liberal Democrats - the social democrats have returned to Labour or opted out of politics and what's left is the Liberal core.
The Red Liberals seem Deep Red to me.0 -
The 2015 Budget will be the launching pad for the 2015 General Election campaign.BobaFett said:
A question I have often posed to PB Liberals is "what would it take to depose Clegg/pull the plug on the Coalition?" As the election campaign begins in nine or so months, when is the cut off point for the Libs? Could they press the button at conference if things don't improve over the summer?stodge said:
I wasn't sure you were ever "on" us to be honest.TOPPING said:
Agree 100% with your post and as to the above, well they weren't at least not at the conference which overwhelmingly agreed to go into coalition.
Collective selective memory, collective denial. I'm beginning to go off them.
Mr Bond's original post is full of assumptions and inaccuracies. There was never any realistic prospect of a deal with Labour in May 2010 - the numbers weren't there, the will from the Labour side wasn't there after 13 years in office and prolonging any talks with Labour was a negotiating ploy to wring further concessions from the Conservatives.
Being in Government and around the Cabinet table gave the LDs a presence and an influence that Supply & Confidence wouldn't and couldn't provide. The experience of Government will, I believe, be a positive for the Party in terms of policy-making and future policy development.
There was, I believe, from 2007-10, a convergence of thought between Cameron's "liberal conservatism" and Clegg's "conservative liberalism" which took the party away from the social democratic route of Steel, Kennedy and Ashdown and toward the kind of liberalism favoured by Jo Grimond and before him Clement Davies.
The Liberal Party of the 1950s was the small-state Party opposed to Butskellism. Indeed, a number of the IEA founders and proto-Thatcherites started life in the 1950s Liberal Party. Clegg isn't going that far but the direction of the Party under his leadership has been (and this I believe influenced by the economic recession) sharply away from social democracy.
In a sense, Clegg has "de-merged" the post-1988 Liberal Democrats - the social democrats have returned to Labour or opted out of politics and what's left is the Liberal core.
The Red Liberals seem Deep Red to me.
I'd expect it to be the most important budget since 1992.
The Yellow Peril will want to influence that and claim credit for some eye catching proposals.0 -
Arsenal exes in the PremTheScreamingEagles said:Thomas Vermaelen transfer: Arsenal captain 'verbally agrees' shock move to join Louis van Gaal at Manchester United
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/manchester-united-transfer-latest-arsenal-defender-thomas-vermaelen-verbally-agrees-shock-move-to-join-louis-van-gaal-at-old-trafford-9539474.html
Fabianski
Sagna Senderos Toure Vermaelen Clichy
Nasri Fabregas
Chamakh
RvP Adebayor0 -
If they've stopped all gas, then it means no gas is going to reach Western Europe. This is less of an issue than it would seem (it's summer, and the North African and Norwegian connectors are far from full), but it is demonstrating a willingness to f*ck with Europe/the EU that was not previously there.Smarmeron said:Gazprom has halted gas supplies to the Ukraine. This could get problematic.
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How an arrest in Iraq revealed Isis's $2bn jihadist network
Seizure of 160 computer flash sticks revealed the inside story of Isis, the band of militants that came from nowhere with nothing to having Syrian oil fields and control of Iraq's second city
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/15/iraq-isis-arrest-jihadists-wealth-power?CMP=twt_gu0 -
I think a point not often widely understood is that actual benefit fraud itself is very rare, and is confined in reality to a small handful of career criminals and the odd UKIP MEP.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
I suppose it comes down to which think tank or lobby group you trust?
It is the same with "benefit fraud", most people think it is circa 35%.
What do you think the actual figure is?
When Daily Mail readers get enraged about benefit fraud, what they are really thinking about is not the theft of benefits by people not entitled to them, but the receipt of benefits by people who are but who DM readers think should not be.
Here again it's very hard to identify anyone deserving of having their benefits taken away because most of the bill is for pensions, or tops ups to badly paid people who are actualoly working, or to some other group of people who are paying more than they are getting and are therefore funding every one else.
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Only if terms can be agreed with Arsenal.TheScreamingEagles said:
Thomas Vermaelen transfer: Arsenal captain 'verbally agrees' shock move to join Louis van Gaal at Manchester United
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/manchester-united-transfer-latest-arsenal-defender-thomas-vermaelen-verbally-agrees-shock-move-to-join-louis-van-gaal-at-old-trafford-9539474.html0 -
New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi1406160
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Established parties re asserting themselves?TheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
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I don't think that Labour wanted to dance in 2010 - they were politically and intellectually exhausted from 13 years in power. It's a realistic a scenario as a Major-Ashdown deal would have been had the 1992 election produced a Hung Parliament (which it nearly did).TOPPING said:
You're wrong (about my being "off" the LDs).
Ever since May 2010 I have been defending the LDs (often from themselves) about the limited room for manoeuvre they've had in coalition and what an achievement that has been. And don't give me the "no realistic prospect of a deal with Labour" - as we know NC categorically laid out the conditions for forming a coalition.
They are in power, at the table making grown-up decisions that affect you and me. Yes, they've had to shed their looney tunes far left happy-clappy hypothecating, whackjob policies. But that's great! I'm a big fan.
And now they need to define who and what they are. Are they still to the left of (old) Labour or have they embraced the pragmatism that they have espoused these past four years in govt. They have lost the NOTA tag while in govt and I am interested to see where they go next.
On the rest, I don't disagree. The philosophical way forward for the Party isn't clear (I'm not sure it is for the Conservative or Labour parties either to be honest). IF Labour win, there will be an opportunity while the Tories settle scores with UKIP for the Party to carve out a niche but as what ? There's no future in outflanking Labour from the Left as we know.
I would like to think the positives from the Coalition Experience in terms of working to improve the lot of the lower paid and encouraging work rather than benefits are areas the party can build on. As distinct from the Conservatives, who seem more willing to target largesse at higher earners, the LDs should continue the emphasis on helping the lowest paid possibly by reducing NI for those on low incomes and looking at improving rights for part-time workers. There is a huge issue on housing and I would like to see the Party being much bolder on planning reform.
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England look big at 2/1 on Betfair here. Uneven bounce will be key, but it's hooping around at the moment. Feels like it should be 50/50 (SL no chance).0
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Mr. Eagles, "Family Friend: Clegg in “Really Bad Place”": I thought lots of Sheffield was rather nice?
Also, women are likelier to have psych interventions and I'm pretty sure handsome men don't have the same degree of advantage as pretty women.
Mr. Jim, just one more advantage of a trebuchet-based justice system. It's really no effort at all for the criminal. Gravity does most of the work, and the trebuchet does the rest.0 -
Nothing has changed since last time in my opinion a brief look at the tables tells me. I think the weighting for Lab-Con is in general going to be alot more accurate than for UKIP-LD.TheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
Lab/Con shares have adjusted to a smallish degree from the last General Election. But UKIP have gone from ~ 2.5% to ~ 13 ?% minimum and the Lib Dems are on 13% at the very most from 25% or so - one parties vote has at the very least halved the other quadrupled or so in terms of VI. I simply am not certain that the weighting assumptions are so valid in this situation.0 -
It came after she refused to wear an electronic tag for a separate offence because it interfered with her adult TV work.TheScreamingEagles said:
She can punish me any time, and I can guarantee it will be ha[moderated]ToryJim said:Someone needs to tell this airhead that punishment is meant to be hard, really is staggering.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2658839/I-dont-want-community-service-picking-litter-tiring-says-glamour-model-skipped-probation-meeting-boob-job-Belgium.html
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2658839/I-dont-want-community-service-picking-litter-tiring-says-glamour-model-skipped-probation-meeting-boob-job-Belgium.html#ixzz34nSTIL5j
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I would have thought there'd be a substantial audience for pr0n involving women wearing tags.0 -
Mr Dancer, I think this individual needs a more celestially based justice option.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, "Family Friend: Clegg in “Really Bad Place”": I thought lots of Sheffield was rather nice?
Also, women are likelier to have psych interventions and I'm pretty sure handsome men don't have the same degree of advantage as pretty women.
Mr. Jim, just one more advantage of a trebuchet-based justice system. It's really no effort at all for the criminal. Gravity does most of the work, and the trebuchet does the rest.
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Re.Populus: UKIP's Euro Elections bubble starting to deflate?
We await His Lordship.
Meanwhile I hear that Tony Blair has been booked in for electric shock treatment at 3pm.0 -
Will the Tories missing men come back from UKIP?TheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
Men: Con 31% - 38% Labour (UKIP 17%)
Women: Con 35% - 37% Labour (UKIP 9%)0 -
UKIP seem to be sliding in the polls towards a single digit level of support - could this be the time to take Ladbrokes 2/1 on them winning between 5% - 10% of the UK vote in the GE?TheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
This looks like a value bet to me, but as ever DYOR.
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Those internals look awful for the Lib Dems to my eyes...
Lib Dems:
Raw 95 weighted to 136.
Certainty to vote 10/10
57%...0 -
Mr. Jim, do you refer to the space cannon, or the solar death ray?0
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I'd be interested to hear from some of the Kippers on here as to how they would answer the question:Pulpstar said:I simply am not certain that the weighting assumptions are so valid in this situation.
"Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?"
My suspicion is that the answer to this question is a lot less fixed than Populus are hoping, but I could easily be wrong.0 -
Either Mr Dancer, her absence from the gene pool would be of benefit to mankind.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, do you refer to the space cannon, or the solar death ray?
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Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?
Is that possibly the worst question ever to weight to ?
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??peter_from_putney said:
UKIP seem to be sliding in the polls towards a single digit level of supportTheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
No they don't.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary0 -
This weighting question is truly dire I think.OblitusSumMe said:
I'd be interested to hear from some of the Kippers on here as to how they would answer the question:Pulpstar said:I simply am not certain that the weighting assumptions are so valid in this situation.
"Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?"
My suspicion is that the answer to this question is a lot less fixed than Populus are hoping, but I could easily be wrong.
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I'm on from a few days ago, when it was 9/4. I think it is a good-value bet even at 2/1. I can't see them dropping below 5%; therefore I think the bet comes down to whether they exceed 10% or not. I'd have put that at less than a 50% chance.peter_from_putney said:
UKIP seem to be sliding in the polls towards a single digit level of support - could this be the time to take Ladbrokes 2/1 on them winning between 5% - 10% of the UK vote in the GE?TheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
This looks like a value bet to me, but as ever DYOR.0 -
To think that when Scotland is an independent nation it will be able to appear in the World Cup0
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I always voted Labour in the past, I will definitley vote UKIP next timeOblitusSumMe said:
I'd be interested to hear from some of the Kippers on here as to how they would answer the question:Pulpstar said:I simply am not certain that the weighting assumptions are so valid in this situation.
"Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?"
My suspicion is that the answer to this question is a lot less fixed than Populus are hoping, but I could easily be wrong.0 -
It's certainly a weirdly worded question. There are so many opt-outs/ angles that it's almost inviting one to select a party contrary to one's actual preference.Pulpstar said:Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?
Is that possibly the worst question ever to weight to ?0 -
Good job you DYOR!anotherDave said:
??peter_from_putney said:
UKIP seem to be sliding in the polls towards a single digit level of supportTheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
No they don't.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary0 -
It will take a while for them to build the infrastructure up from nothing.MikeSmithson said:To think that when Scotland is an independent nation it will be able to appear in the World Cup
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If I say "no, they won't" does that count as Yoonyoonist bullying?MikeSmithson said:To think that when Scotland is an independent nation it will be able to appear in the World Cup
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Presumably a joke - but in any case it's staying in the competition that is the problem - hence the postmodern ironist nature of the average Tartan Army fan.Tissue_Price said:
It will take a while for them to build the infrastructure up from nothing.MikeSmithson said:To think that when Scotland is an independent nation it will be able to appear in the World Cup
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Populus
Yet another poll showing the Labour share rising.
Interesting trend.0 -
I'm not a Kipper, but my response is a resounding "eh?".OblitusSumMe said:
I'd be interested to hear from some of the Kippers on here as to how they would answer the question:Pulpstar said:I simply am not certain that the weighting assumptions are so valid in this situation.
"Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?"
My suspicion is that the answer to this question is a lot less fixed than Populus are hoping, but I could easily be wrong.0 -
I was trying to think of a bet we could have, but to me taking 1/2 about 5-15% loooks fantastic valuepeter_from_putney said:
UKIP seem to be sliding in the polls towards a single digit level of support - could this be the time to take Ladbrokes 2/1 on them winning between 5% - 10% of the UK vote in the GE?TheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
This looks like a value bet to me, but as ever DYOR.0 -
Isn't that just "Who do you normally vote for...?", with a subtext of "...assuming you can get off your lardy arse to vote".0
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No, just a Unionist scare story (and with the usual level of accuracy thereof!).Scott_P said:
If I say "no, they won't" does that count as Yoonyoonist bullying?MikeSmithson said:To think that when Scotland is an independent nation it will be able to appear in the World Cup
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It's possible that ICM might put UKIP on under 10%, but I can't see them heading to that level with any other pollster.anotherDave said:
??peter_from_putney said:
UKIP seem to be sliding in the polls towards a single digit level of supportTheScreamingEagles said:New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 33 (+1); LD 9 (+1); UKIP 13 (-2); Oth 8 (-2) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140616
No they don't.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
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The correct answer for @isam of this parish to this question would be "Labour". This is what Populus is looking for. If people answered this question as it was intended then UKIP would have alot higher Voting Intention on the topline of Populus.peter_from_putney said:
It's certainly a weirdly worded question. There are so many opt-outs/ angles that it's almost inviting one to select a party contrary to one's actual preference.Pulpstar said:Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?
Is that possibly the worst question ever to weight to ?
People don't understand the question so an awful lot of UKIPpers are answering "UKIP" even though what the question is looking for is different to the question they think they are hearing.
What people are answering is "Q.4 Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you most closely identify yourself with?"0 -
It is, but a significant number of people are answering the alternative Question 4 I have posted below.John_M said:Isn't that just "Who do you normally vote for...?", with a subtext of "...assuming you can get off your lardy arse to vote".
"Who have you normally voted for in the past" would be a FAR better question and is what they are attempting to get at I think.0 -
Underlying trend from the Populus data is the continuing higher % of 2010LD to be voting green now. It is currently around 6/7 % more than 2% than at the start of the year. This has mainly come from a reduced 2010LD to Lab shift.0
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Concatenated into post below.0
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Labour are polling a mahoosive one per cent more with populus than they did before the Euros.0
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Mr Dancer, Clegg spends most of his time in London.
If he spent more time in Sheffield he'd be a happier chap.0 -
Labour need to keep up this ~36% share I think as wall to wall Ed Miliband will peg it back a fair bit before the GE.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour are polling a mahoosive one per cent more with populus than they did before the Euros.
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Ed posing with the SUN worked then...TheScreamingEagles said:Labour are polling a mahoosive one per cent more with populus than they did before the Euros.
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Looks like the Lanka have started off at a fair tick.0
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@PSbook: BREAKING → Vince Cable will be subject of official investigation by Standards Commissioner http://t.co/Sv1qy9C8n30
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I share your concerns with the question - I think it's bound to dampen down real swings in opinion.Pulpstar said:
It is, but a significant number of people are answering the alternative Question 4 I have posted below.John_M said:Isn't that just "Who do you normally vote for...?", with a subtext of "...assuming you can get off your lardy arse to vote".
"Who have you normally voted for in the past" would be a FAR better question and is what they are attempting to get at I think.
Another alternative would be to ask something like:
"Which political party do you think your parents would have voted for when you were a child?"
It gets to the political identity part of the question that Populus are after, but externalises it from the respondent, so that they don't have to deal with the conflict between their current voting intention and their past voting intention.0 -
Cable is a busted flush. Come on Twickenham, do the right thing!Scott_P said:@PSbook: BREAKING → Vince Cable will be subject of official investigation by Standards Commissioner http://t.co/Sv1qy9C8n3
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A very good analysis of how the political balance is Sussex may impact railway enhancements.
http://www.londonreconnections.com/2014/study-sussex-part-2-political-economic-background/
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This seems pretty weak to me as an attack on Vince. In what way is being shown the results of a poll, which someone else commissioned, a 'financial interest' in the sense that the Register is meant to disclose? It's not a personal payment to Vince, nor a contribution to his campaigning. At worst it seems to be an unsolicited piece of advance information.Scott_P said:@PSbook: BREAKING → Vince Cable will be subject of official investigation by Standards Commissioner http://t.co/Sv1qy9C8n3
If it is a breach of the rules, it's an exceptionally arcane and technical one, which I wouldn't have thought would have any effect.0 -
It's all very small movement, but FWIW my reading is that UKIP picked up some vaguely anti-government votes from Labour around Euro time which are now drifting back. At the weekend we were doing WWC wards and there was significantly less mention of UKIP than at any time for some weeks. The more ideological/committed kippers aren't affected.BobaFett said:Populus
Yet another poll showing the Labour share rising.
Interesting trend.
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Careful. He might be tempted to threaten TW11 with his nuclear weapon.Anorak said:
Cable is a busted flush. Come on Twickenham, do the right thing!Scott_P said:@PSbook: BREAKING → Vince Cable will be subject of official investigation by Standards Commissioner http://t.co/Sv1qy9C8n3
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Ah, so what you're saying is that the Scots have been secretly independent since the 1978 World Cup....MikeSmithson said:To think that when Scotland is an independent nation it will be able to appear in the World Cup
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I never said it would have an immediate effect, my point was it would feed into the ongoing story of Ed. It will reinforce his weaknesses in the longer term. Lots of things don't get noticed but feed into our memory so that later when similar happens it pops back up as a vague recollection.BobaFett said:@ScottP
We were assured by the likes of AudreyAnne and ToryJim that the Sun thing would be a disaster for Ed.
It's made no difference at all, as the sensible among us predicted. I include the likes of Dyed Woolie in that - a very bright Tory posters.
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Are you sure that's patronising enough?BobaFett said:@ScottP
We were assured by the likes of AudreyAnne and ToryJim that the Sun thing would be a disaster for Ed.
It's made no difference at all, as the sensible among us predicted. I include the likes of Dyed Woolie in that - a very bright Tory posters.
ed/Sun may not frighten you, but I am pretty sure it scares the shit out of the shadow cabinet. It confirms the public appetite for "weird ed" stories, and the press will satisfy that appetite.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-zczJXSxnwBobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.0 -
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird0 -
I have an image of Vince cackling maniacally as he presses the Big Red Button. There's a fizz and a small, barely audible 'pop', followed by an embarrassed silence. Vince grabs his coat and leaves.TheWatcher said:
Careful. He might be tempted to threaten TW11 with his nuclear weapon.Anorak said:
Cable is a busted flush. Come on Twickenham, do the right thing!Scott_P said:@PSbook: BREAKING → Vince Cable will be subject of official investigation by Standards Commissioner http://t.co/Sv1qy9C8n3
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The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.antifrank said:
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.
Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.0 -
Oh good grief.BobaFett said:
The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.antifrank said:
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.
Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.0 -
Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.ToryJim said:
Oh good grief.BobaFett said:
The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.antifrank said:
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.
Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.0 -
You are channeling tim, and over-posting.BobaFett said:
The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.antifrank said:
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.
Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
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Meanwhile, Dan Hodges has penned yet another article about how the Labour leader is crap:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100276498/tony-blair-isnt-mad-but-if-he-wants-the-west-to-intervene-in-iraq-a-period-of-silence-on-his-part-would-be-welcome/
But for a change, it's a different Labour leader.0 -
My fav recent poll was the one showing Labour voters are least likely to want England to win the World Cup
Would be even less if Cuba were involved!0 -
antifrank said:
Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.ToryJim said:
Oh good grief.BobaFett said:
The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.antifrank said:
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.
Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
It's a good job someone picks up the rebuttals. The Tory dominance on this site is now so overwhelming that it has long since ceased to be a decent resource for betting.
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A by-election in Portsmouth South which the LDs lose would probably be fatal for Clegg.0
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Damn, didn't realise we were playing PB bingo.BobaFett said:antifrank said:
Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.ToryJim said:
Oh good grief.BobaFett said:
The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.antifrank said:
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.
Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
It's a good job someone picks up the rebuttals. The Tory dominance on this site is now so overwhelming that it has long since ceased to be a decent resource for betting.0 -
But you piously exclaim that it's crazy that the Conservatives label Ed Miliband "weird" when poll after poll - which you affect to ignore or simply not read - shows that's exactly what the public think of Ed Miliband. And you seize on a one day rise in Labour support in a single Populus poll to dismiss any assault on the dignity of the person of the Labour leader. It's not exactly blowing the argument out of the water.BobaFett said:antifrank said:
Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.ToryJim said:
Oh good grief.BobaFett said:
The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.antifrank said:
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.
Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
It's a good job someone picks up the rebuttals. The Tory dominance on this site is now so overwhelming that it has long since ceased to be a decent resource for betting.
Is the election going to be solely about Ed Miliband's personality traits? No. But it's going to play a substantial part. And unless he can turn around public perceptions soon, this is going to act as a lead weight dragging Labour's chances down.0 -
Oh dear, MP caught praising the wrong village. Someone's researcher didn't live up to their job description.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10902632/Labour-MP-hails-beautiful-waterfalls-of-Ingleton-in-the-wrong-village.html0 -
I have not seized on a one day rise at all. I have been pointing out for days that the Labour share has risen a bit since the Euros. The fact that the PB Tories refuse to listen/notice is hardly my fault.antifrank said:
But you piously exclaim that it's crazy that the Conservatives label Ed Miliband "weird" when poll after poll - which you affect to ignore or simply not read - shows that's exactly what the public think of Ed Miliband. And you seize on a one day rise in Labour support in a single Populus poll to dismiss any assault on the dignity of the person of the Labour leader. It's not exactly blowing the argument out of the water.BobaFett said:antifrank said:
Leave him be. Comfort blankets are, well, comforting.ToryJim said:
Oh good grief.BobaFett said:
The PB Tories assured us that Ed's weirdness - and then his 'weird' apology - on the Sun sideshow would be a disaster for him.antifrank said:
We get that you don't like that criticism.BobaFett said:@ToryJim
Ed has so far been weird, weak and dangerous.
Listening to that Tories anyone would think he was an oddly designed railway bridge.
The public by and large agree with it though:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-british-public-still-think-ed-miliband-is-weird
Not so according to Populus, which shows Labour's score rising.
Polling vs PB Tory wishful thinking.
It's a good job someone picks up the rebuttals. The Tory dominance on this site is now so overwhelming that it has long since ceased to be a decent resource for betting.
Is the election going to be solely about Ed Miliband's personality traits? No. But it's going to play a substantial part. And unless he can turn around public perceptions soon, this is going to act as a lead weight dragging Labour's chances down.
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