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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingha

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    SeanT said:


    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Plenty of us get paid for writing. Some of us, however, do it for much smaller audiences.

    And I suspect the influence of the audience matters more than the size...

    I also find it amusing that Sean thinks that having sex with an attractive member of the opposite sex is something unique to him.
    Did I claim I was unique??? No, I merely pointed out, with nothing but appropriate modesty, that I'm having sex with approximately 50 women a year, at the moment.
    Wow. That must be very expensive.
    Not with the sort of women that sleep with a guy within a week of dating.
    Isn’t he in Thailand.? A week can be a long time there!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Carnyx said:

    @SeanT

    Now I know I've led a sheltered life, save for my sojourns around the UK rail network, but what would make a LibDem strap-on different from any other strap-on?

    It's yellow?

    [edit: not that I would know either ...]

    It also points both ways, which can lead to agony or shared ecstacy depending on the configuration chosen.

    [There's also a joke about being shafted at every turn, but I haven't the inclination to take it any further.]
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My other half and I talk about politics quite a bit, but it's fair to say that neither of us have easily categorisable views. We don't agree on very much either.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited June 2014
    Ashcroft National Poll, 13-15 June: CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%

    Full details - along with focus group report - on @ConHome, 4pm.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    @LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 13-15 June: CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%. Full details - along with focus group report - on @ConHome, 4pm.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Pulpstar said:

    I simply am not certain that the weighting assumptions are so valid in this situation.

    I'd be interested to hear from some of the Kippers on here as to how they would answer the question:

    "Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?"

    My suspicion is that the answer to this question is a lot less fixed than Populus are hoping, but I could easily be wrong.
    For anyone 50+ the "have usually" could cover a lot of years. I'd still say "labour" to that question even though there's zero chance of me voting labour now.

    An individual's "have usually" party might be the one they're most bitter about.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2014

    The best thing about a strap on that it is an anagram of "no parts" which has always amused me.

    And condom is an anagram of mod-con :)
    Sunil Prasannan = Nun's Anal Sprain o_O
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Will ICM fall into line ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Hmm If Kumar carries his bat here does he get Man of the Match ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Lord Ashcroft's focus group findings are a lot more revealing than the opinion poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/ashcroft-national-poll-con-29-lab-35-lib-dem-8-ukip-15/#more-6135

    Labour supporters might prefer not to look.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Ashcroft poll good for Lab - very similar to Populus in terms of direction of travel - Lab and Con both up (Lab up more), UKIP down.

    I think the one thing that is clear is that UKIP are now falling and they are going to fall steadily.

    Unless OFCOM suddenly declares them a "Major Party" it's very hard to see how they are going to get enough oxygen to make another advance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    For the Halifax groups the choice of Big Ben signified the north-south divide (“they have faster broadband on their mobile phones down there than the fibre-optic in my house”), with which they continued to associate the Tories.

    Interesting anecdote.

    I can tell you for a fact that the broadband on my mobile in my house is faster than the broadband with my landline.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    We've just found out that the Wall Street Journal has lifted material from us without crediting it. The problem is that it is a quote from someone else (a US judge who gave me permission to reproduce an email he sent to me), not originally generated stuff. I currently have a very annoying feeling of powerlessness. And hate!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2014
    5 down, 5 to go, with a new ball later. 9/10/11 not up to much so this partnership will be key.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    Ashcroft National Poll, 13-15 June: CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%

    Full details - along with focus group report - on @ConHome, 4pm.

    The Greens are still up on 6%. They can't last for much longer, surely?

    Interesting that this sample almost reached its quota of C2 voters - the best that I recall seeing from an Ashcroft poll, but some C1 voters are still missing.

    Also, though I risk being struck down for mentioning this, the Scottish subsamples in this poll and the earlier Populus both have the Lib Dems on more than 10%. Sure, it's based on only 5 people who say they will vote Lib Dem in Scotland in this poll, but I've become so used to seeing it much lower that I thought it was notable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    5 down, 5 to go, with a new ball later. 9/10/11 not up to much so this partnership will be key.

    Quite a few people in the Betfair forum balls deep on the draw.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Interestingly Ashcroft is yet another poll that shows the Labour score rising.

    Hmm :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Lord Ashcroft's focus group findings are a lot more revealing than the opinion poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/ashcroft-national-poll-con-29-lab-35-lib-dem-8-ukip-15/#more-6135

    Labour supporters might prefer not to look.

    "well-healed" as a description of the post-2005 Conservative party is an inspired spelling mistake.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    We've just found out that the Wall Street Journal has lifted material from us without crediting it. The problem is that it is a quote from someone else (a US judge who gave me permission to reproduce an email he sent to me), not originally generated stuff. I currently have a very annoying feeling of powerlessness. And hate!

    Have you tried politely asking them to credit you on their website? At least that would give you some publicity and perhaps a link.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Lord Ashcroft's focus group findings are a lot more revealing than the opinion poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/ashcroft-national-poll-con-29-lab-35-lib-dem-8-ukip-15/#more-6135

    Labour supporters might prefer not to look.

    I think the sense I get both from the poll, the focus group and events of recent times is that voters may not make their mind up until they get to the voting booth. It's fascinating.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    We've just found out that the Wall Street Journal has lifted material from us without crediting it. The problem is that it is a quote from someone else (a US judge who gave me permission to reproduce an email he sent to me), not originally generated stuff. I currently have a very annoying feeling of powerlessness. And hate!

    Have you tried politely asking them to credit you on their website? At least that would give you some publicity and perhaps a link.

    It's pretty standard stuff, unfortunately. The journalist who put their story together can only have got the material from us as it was exclusive to us. He's made a deliberate decision not to credit. I have let him and his editor know that I know and Tweeted it too. But there's not much more that can be done. We just have to grit our teeth and move on. Unethical mainstream journalists, who'd have thought it??!!

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Lord Ashcroft's focus group findings are a lot more revealing than the opinion poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/ashcroft-national-poll-con-29-lab-35-lib-dem-8-ukip-15/#more-6135

    Labour supporters might prefer not to look.

    Not really. The median bias in the 3-part question (Like Cam/Dislike Cam but prefer to Mil/Like Mil) is something we've discussed here many times and is well-known in statistical discussion outside politics - if you give an odd number of options, people go for the middle option as a way of saying they're not sure. It's always better to offer an even number of options, forcing people to lean one way or the other.

    But in any case, as we've discussed there are really quite a lot of people who don't think much of any of the parties or their leaders, but who on balance vote Labour for diverse reasons such as habit or being very strongly anti-Conservative. The Tory strategy to counter that is inconsistent - they can't decide if they want to portray Miliband is a Hapless Amateur or a Dangerous Marxist, so neither quite works strongly enough to make people change their votes.


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